Profile - To The Moon

Kein2020

Posts · 36Posts · 36
Following · 0Following · 0
Followers · 0Followers · 0

- Kein2020Kein2020
  ·2023-12-21
  Aww $蔚来(NIO)$ y@Alan聊特斯拉
  “新美联储通讯社”：鲍威尔突然转向，市场也懵了
  美联储的真实态度暧昧不明，降息节点和幅度难以预判，令市场也感到一头雾水。鲍威尔12月13日的新闻发布会后，市场开始预期美联储可能会从3月份开始降息25个基点，之后再连续五次降息25个基点。而根据美联储官方的预测，明年仅会降息三次。她相信，美联储官员对市场敷衍的反击表明多半是后者。
  “新美联储通讯社”：鲍威尔突然转向，市场也懵了
  149 Comment
  Like
  Share
  Report
No following yet

Most Discussed

Terms and Conditions·Privacy Policy

Company: TTMF Limited. Tech supported by Xiangshang Yixin.

Email：uservice@ttm.financial

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isCurrentUser":false,"userPageInfo":{"id":"3547929199452150","uuid":"3547929199452150","gmtCreate":1585488392632,"gmtModify":1585740161698,"name":"Kein2020","pinyin":"kein2020","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65249682dcf9baa8ca041c4121572010","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":1,"headSize":53,"tweetSize":36,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":3,"name":"书生虎","nameTw":"書生虎","represent":"努力向上","factor":"发布10条非转发主帖,其中5条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":35,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-3","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":" Tiger Idol","description":"Join the tiger community for 1500 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b40ae7da5bf081a1c84df14bf9e6367","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f160eceddd7c284a8e1136557615cfad","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11792805c468334a9b31c39f95a41c6a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.05.08","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-2","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"Executive Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $300,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d20b23f1b6335407f882bc5c2ad12c0","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ada3b4533518ace8404a3f6dd192bd29","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/177f283ba21d1c077054dac07f88f3bd","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"80.06%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-2","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Master Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 100","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad22cfbe2d05aa393b18e9226e4b0307","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36702e6ff3ffe46acafee66cc85273ca","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52eb88fa385cf5abe2616ed63781765","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"80.22%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"page":1,"watchlist":null,"tweetList":[{"id":254356408414480,"gmtCreate":1703135387848,"gmtModify":1703135390587,"author":{"id":"3547929199452150","authorId":"3547929199452150","name":"Kein2020","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65249682dcf9baa8ca041c4121572010","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3547929199452150","authorIdStr":"3547929199452150"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Aww <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$&nbsp;</a>y<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3569899433800417\">@Alan聊特斯拉&nbsp;</a>","listText":"Aww <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$&nbsp;</a>y<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3569899433800417\">@Alan聊特斯拉&nbsp;</a>","text":"Aww $蔚来(NIO)$ y@Alan聊特斯拉","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/254356408414480","repostId":"2392189150","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2392189150","pubTimestamp":1703131049,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2392189150?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-12-21 11:57","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“新美联储通讯社”：鲍威尔突然转向，市场也懵了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2392189150","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美联储的真实态度暧昧不明，降息节点和幅度难以预判，令市场也感到一头雾水。鲍威尔12月13日的新闻发布会后，市场开始预期美联储可能会从3月份开始降息25个基点，之后再连续五次降息25个基点。而根据美联储官方的预测，明年仅会降息三次。她相信，美联储官员对市场敷衍的反击表明多半是后者。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p><strong>美联储的真实态度暧昧不明，降息节点和幅度难以预判，令市场也感到一头雾水。</strong></p></blockquote><p>有“新美联储通讯社”之称的华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos撰文指出，由于通胀持续走低，美联储在年内最后一次政策会议上态度显著软化，联储主席鲍威尔甚至明确提出“已经开始讨论降息”，令美国股债商市场齐齐狂欢式上涨。</p><p>但Nick Timiraos也表示，尽管鲍威尔在政策会议新闻发布会上鸽派倾向明显，但多位地方联储主席在之后的几天里，都在尝试向市场传递鹰派基调，即通胀尚未回落至2%目标，美联储仍然会保留维持利率“更高更长”的选择。<strong>美联储的真实态度暧昧不明，降息节点和幅度难以预判，令市场也感到一头雾水。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_3566411568\">降息前景拉动市场反弹，但美联储官员仍放鹰声</h2><p>鲍威尔在过去一年里，口风始终都很紧，一直摆出一副要和通胀进行旷日持久的殊死搏斗的样子。自2022年7月以来，他在每次会后新闻发布会的开头都会指出，要降低通胀可能需要经济衰退、招聘放缓。</p><p>尽管在上周公布的政策会议声明中，美联储官员并未排除继续提高利率的可能性。但鲍威尔在后续的讲话中主动表示，一些官员已开始讨论降息的前景，虽然这番话并不是他讲话的重点，但欢欣鼓舞的降息前景仍然点燃了市场的反弹。</p><p>鲍威尔12月13日的新闻发布会后，市场开始预期美联储可能会从3月份开始降息25个基点，之后再连续五次降息25个基点。而根据美联储官方的预测，明年仅会降息三次。</p><p>而在此次会议之前，市场预计的降息起始节点是5月，年内降息次数不会超过四次。</p><p>鲍威尔讲话后的几天里，连续多位美联储主席发表讲话，为3月降息的猜测泼冷水。</p><p>芝加哥联储主席Austan Goolsbee周一在电视采访中表示，市场对鲍威尔的反应“令人困惑”：</p><blockquote><p>“我们不会对未来的具体政策进行猜测性辩论。”</p></blockquote><p>里士满联储主席Tom Barkin周二在接受采访时表示：</p><blockquote><p>“我不反对下调利率，前提是确信通胀率已经达到了想要的水平，但我仍在寻找‘通胀将稳定在美联储2%的目标而不是更高’的证据。”</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_1095361584\">市场提前押注降息</h2><p>过去一年半以来，美联储与市场展开了拉锯战，市场往往比美联储预期通胀下降得更快，降息幅度更大。</p><p>但目前的情况让人感觉不同，因为在过去六个月中，有五个月的通胀率都达到或接近美联储的目标。Evercore ISI 公司副董事长Krishna Guha在媒体采访中表示：</p><blockquote><p>“不同之处在于数据。通胀下降比美联储审慎预期的来得更早、更快。”</p></blockquote><p>上周，美联储官员预计，剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格的核心通胀率将在今年年底达到3.2%，比三个月前的预期下降了0.5%。</p><p>Guha表示，问题在于，美联储官员究竟是觉得市场“完全错了”，还是同样认可通胀正在下行，只是不想现在就表达未来三个月后的立场，给市场太多乐观的希望。</p><p>她相信，<strong>美联储官员对市场敷衍的反击表明多半是后者</strong>。</p><p>但即使如此，许多市场分析人士还是警告投资者，不要小看美联储解决通胀问题的耐心。</p><p>总部位于洛杉矶的资产管理公司 Payden &amp; Rygel 的首席经济学家 Jeffrey Cleveland 表示：</p><blockquote><p>“美联储肯定希望确定通胀率将回到2%，而不是3%或者3.5%。在通胀目标上美联储不会妥协，他们有耐心去实现。”</p></blockquote></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“新美联储通讯社”：鲍威尔突然转向，市场也懵了</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“新美联储通讯社”：鲍威尔突然转向，市场也懵了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-12-21 11:57 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3704654><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美联储的真实态度暧昧不明，降息节点和幅度难以预判，令市场也感到一头雾水。有“新美联储通讯社”之称的华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos撰文指出，由于通胀持续走低，美联储在年内最后一次政策会议上态度显著软化，联储主席鲍威尔甚至明确提出“已经开始讨论降息”，令美国股债商市场齐齐狂欢式上涨。但Nick Timiraos也表示，尽管鲍威尔在政策会议新闻发布会上鸽派倾向明显，但多位地方联储主席在之后的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3704654\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e19f48a31cee5b3db8d8d914ae81b2c2","relate_stocks":{"BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","OEX":"标普100",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3704654","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2392189150","content_text":"美联储的真实态度暧昧不明，降息节点和幅度难以预判，令市场也感到一头雾水。有“新美联储通讯社”之称的华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos撰文指出，由于通胀持续走低，美联储在年内最后一次政策会议上态度显著软化，联储主席鲍威尔甚至明确提出“已经开始讨论降息”，令美国股债商市场齐齐狂欢式上涨。但Nick Timiraos也表示，尽管鲍威尔在政策会议新闻发布会上鸽派倾向明显，但多位地方联储主席在之后的几天里，都在尝试向市场传递鹰派基调，即通胀尚未回落至2%目标，美联储仍然会保留维持利率“更高更长”的选择。美联储的真实态度暧昧不明，降息节点和幅度难以预判，令市场也感到一头雾水。降息前景拉动市场反弹，但美联储官员仍放鹰声鲍威尔在过去一年里，口风始终都很紧，一直摆出一副要和通胀进行旷日持久的殊死搏斗的样子。自2022年7月以来，他在每次会后新闻发布会的开头都会指出，要降低通胀可能需要经济衰退、招聘放缓。尽管在上周公布的政策会议声明中，美联储官员并未排除继续提高利率的可能性。但鲍威尔在后续的讲话中主动表示，一些官员已开始讨论降息的前景，虽然这番话并不是他讲话的重点，但欢欣鼓舞的降息前景仍然点燃了市场的反弹。鲍威尔12月13日的新闻发布会后，市场开始预期美联储可能会从3月份开始降息25个基点，之后再连续五次降息25个基点。而根据美联储官方的预测，明年仅会降息三次。而在此次会议之前，市场预计的降息起始节点是5月，年内降息次数不会超过四次。鲍威尔讲话后的几天里，连续多位美联储主席发表讲话，为3月降息的猜测泼冷水。芝加哥联储主席Austan Goolsbee周一在电视采访中表示，市场对鲍威尔的反应“令人困惑”：“我们不会对未来的具体政策进行猜测性辩论。”里士满联储主席Tom Barkin周二在接受采访时表示：“我不反对下调利率，前提是确信通胀率已经达到了想要的水平，但我仍在寻找‘通胀将稳定在美联储2%的目标而不是更高’的证据。”市场提前押注降息过去一年半以来，美联储与市场展开了拉锯战，市场往往比美联储预期通胀下降得更快，降息幅度更大。但目前的情况让人感觉不同，因为在过去六个月中，有五个月的通胀率都达到或接近美联储的目标。Evercore ISI 公司副董事长Krishna Guha在媒体采访中表示：“不同之处在于数据。通胀下降比美联储审慎预期的来得更早、更快。”上周，美联储官员预计，剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格的核心通胀率将在今年年底达到3.2%，比三个月前的预期下降了0.5%。Guha表示，问题在于，美联储官员究竟是觉得市场“完全错了”，还是同样认可通胀正在下行，只是不想现在就表达未来三个月后的立场，给市场太多乐观的希望。她相信，美联储官员对市场敷衍的反击表明多半是后者。但即使如此，许多市场分析人士还是警告投资者，不要小看美联储解决通胀问题的耐心。总部位于洛杉矶的资产管理公司 Payden & Rygel 的首席经济学家 Jeffrey Cleveland 表示：“美联储肯定希望确定通胀率将回到2%，而不是3%或者3.5%。在通胀目标上美联储不会妥协，他们有耐心去实现。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":149,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":true}