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- Kein2020Kein2020
  ·2023-12-21
  Aww $蔚来(NIO)$ y@Alan聊特斯拉
  “新美联储通讯社”：鲍威尔突然转向，市场也懵了
  美联储的真实态度暧昧不明，降息节点和幅度难以预判，令市场也感到一头雾水。鲍威尔12月13日的新闻发布会后，市场开始预期美联储可能会从3月份开始降息25个基点，之后再连续五次降息25个基点。而根据美联储官方的预测，明年仅会降息三次。她相信，美联储官员对市场敷衍的反击表明多半是后者。
  “新美联储通讯社”：鲍威尔突然转向，市场也懵了
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<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$&nbsp;</a>y<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3569899433800417\">@Alan聊特斯拉&nbsp;</a>","listText":"Aww <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$&nbsp;</a>y<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3569899433800417\">@Alan聊特斯拉&nbsp;</a>","text":"Aww $蔚来(NIO)$ y@Alan聊特斯拉","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/254356408414480","repostId":"2392189150","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2392189150","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1703131049,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2392189150?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-12-21 11:57","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“新美联储通讯社”：鲍威尔突然转向，市场也懵了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2392189150","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美联储的真实态度暧昧不明，降息节点和幅度难以预判，令市场也感到一头雾水。鲍威尔12月13日的新闻发布会后，市场开始预期美联储可能会从3月份开始降息25个基点，之后再连续五次降息25个基点。而根据美联储官方的预测，明年仅会降息三次。她相信，美联储官员对市场敷衍的反击表明多半是后者。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p><strong>美联储的真实态度暧昧不明，降息节点和幅度难以预判，令市场也感到一头雾水。</strong></p></blockquote><p>有“新美联储通讯社”之称的华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos撰文指出，由于通胀持续走低，美联储在年内最后一次政策会议上态度显著软化，联储主席鲍威尔甚至明确提出“已经开始讨论降息”，令美国股债商市场齐齐狂欢式上涨。</p><p>但Nick Timiraos也表示，尽管鲍威尔在政策会议新闻发布会上鸽派倾向明显，但多位地方联储主席在之后的几天里，都在尝试向市场传递鹰派基调，即通胀尚未回落至2%目标，美联储仍然会保留维持利率“更高更长”的选择。<strong>美联储的真实态度暧昧不明，降息节点和幅度难以预判，令市场也感到一头雾水。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_3566411568\">降息前景拉动市场反弹，但美联储官员仍放鹰声</h2><p>鲍威尔在过去一年里，口风始终都很紧，一直摆出一副要和通胀进行旷日持久的殊死搏斗的样子。自2022年7月以来，他在每次会后新闻发布会的开头都会指出，要降低通胀可能需要经济衰退、招聘放缓。</p><p>尽管在上周公布的政策会议声明中，美联储官员并未排除继续提高利率的可能性。但鲍威尔在后续的讲话中主动表示，一些官员已开始讨论降息的前景，虽然这番话并不是他讲话的重点，但欢欣鼓舞的降息前景仍然点燃了市场的反弹。</p><p>鲍威尔12月13日的新闻发布会后，市场开始预期美联储可能会从3月份开始降息25个基点，之后再连续五次降息25个基点。而根据美联储官方的预测，明年仅会降息三次。</p><p>而在此次会议之前，市场预计的降息起始节点是5月，年内降息次数不会超过四次。</p><p>鲍威尔讲话后的几天里，连续多位美联储主席发表讲话，为3月降息的猜测泼冷水。</p><p>芝加哥联储主席Austan Goolsbee周一在电视采访中表示，市场对鲍威尔的反应“令人困惑”：</p><blockquote><p>“我们不会对未来的具体政策进行猜测性辩论。”</p></blockquote><p>里士满联储主席Tom Barkin周二在接受采访时表示：</p><blockquote><p>“我不反对下调利率，前提是确信通胀率已经达到了想要的水平，但我仍在寻找‘通胀将稳定在美联储2%的目标而不是更高’的证据。”</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_1095361584\">市场提前押注降息</h2><p>过去一年半以来，美联储与市场展开了拉锯战，市场往往比美联储预期通胀下降得更快，降息幅度更大。</p><p>但目前的情况让人感觉不同，因为在过去六个月中，有五个月的通胀率都达到或接近美联储的目标。Evercore ISI 公司副董事长Krishna Guha在媒体采访中表示：</p><blockquote><p>“不同之处在于数据。通胀下降比美联储审慎预期的来得更早、更快。”</p></blockquote><p>上周，美联储官员预计，剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格的核心通胀率将在今年年底达到3.2%，比三个月前的预期下降了0.5%。</p><p>Guha表示，问题在于，美联储官员究竟是觉得市场“完全错了”，还是同样认可通胀正在下行，只是不想现在就表达未来三个月后的立场，给市场太多乐观的希望。</p><p>她相信，<strong>美联储官员对市场敷衍的反击表明多半是后者</strong>。</p><p>但即使如此，许多市场分析人士还是警告投资者，不要小看美联储解决通胀问题的耐心。</p><p>总部位于洛杉矶的资产管理公司 Payden &amp; Rygel 的首席经济学家 Jeffrey Cleveland 表示：</p><blockquote><p>“美联储肯定希望确定通胀率将回到2%，而不是3%或者3.5%。在通胀目标上美联储不会妥协，他们有耐心去实现。”</p></blockquote></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“新美联储通讯社”：鲍威尔突然转向，市场也懵了</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“新美联储通讯社”：鲍威尔突然转向，市场也懵了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-12-21 11:57 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3704654><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美联储的真实态度暧昧不明，降息节点和幅度难以预判，令市场也感到一头雾水。有“新美联储通讯社”之称的华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos撰文指出，由于通胀持续走低，美联储在年内最后一次政策会议上态度显著软化，联储主席鲍威尔甚至明确提出“已经开始讨论降息”，令美国股债商市场齐齐狂欢式上涨。但Nick Timiraos也表示，尽管鲍威尔在政策会议新闻发布会上鸽派倾向明显，但多位地方联储主席在之后的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3704654\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e19f48a31cee5b3db8d8d914ae81b2c2","relate_stocks":{"SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","BK4588":"碎股","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SH":"标普500反向ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3704654","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2392189150","content_text":"美联储的真实态度暧昧不明，降息节点和幅度难以预判，令市场也感到一头雾水。有“新美联储通讯社”之称的华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos撰文指出，由于通胀持续走低，美联储在年内最后一次政策会议上态度显著软化，联储主席鲍威尔甚至明确提出“已经开始讨论降息”，令美国股债商市场齐齐狂欢式上涨。但Nick Timiraos也表示，尽管鲍威尔在政策会议新闻发布会上鸽派倾向明显，但多位地方联储主席在之后的几天里，都在尝试向市场传递鹰派基调，即通胀尚未回落至2%目标，美联储仍然会保留维持利率“更高更长”的选择。美联储的真实态度暧昧不明，降息节点和幅度难以预判，令市场也感到一头雾水。降息前景拉动市场反弹，但美联储官员仍放鹰声鲍威尔在过去一年里，口风始终都很紧，一直摆出一副要和通胀进行旷日持久的殊死搏斗的样子。自2022年7月以来，他在每次会后新闻发布会的开头都会指出，要降低通胀可能需要经济衰退、招聘放缓。尽管在上周公布的政策会议声明中，美联储官员并未排除继续提高利率的可能性。但鲍威尔在后续的讲话中主动表示，一些官员已开始讨论降息的前景，虽然这番话并不是他讲话的重点，但欢欣鼓舞的降息前景仍然点燃了市场的反弹。鲍威尔12月13日的新闻发布会后，市场开始预期美联储可能会从3月份开始降息25个基点，之后再连续五次降息25个基点。而根据美联储官方的预测，明年仅会降息三次。而在此次会议之前，市场预计的降息起始节点是5月，年内降息次数不会超过四次。鲍威尔讲话后的几天里，连续多位美联储主席发表讲话，为3月降息的猜测泼冷水。芝加哥联储主席Austan Goolsbee周一在电视采访中表示，市场对鲍威尔的反应“令人困惑”：“我们不会对未来的具体政策进行猜测性辩论。”里士满联储主席Tom Barkin周二在接受采访时表示：“我不反对下调利率，前提是确信通胀率已经达到了想要的水平，但我仍在寻找‘通胀将稳定在美联储2%的目标而不是更高’的证据。”市场提前押注降息过去一年半以来，美联储与市场展开了拉锯战，市场往往比美联储预期通胀下降得更快，降息幅度更大。但目前的情况让人感觉不同，因为在过去六个月中，有五个月的通胀率都达到或接近美联储的目标。Evercore ISI 公司副董事长Krishna Guha在媒体采访中表示：“不同之处在于数据。通胀下降比美联储审慎预期的来得更早、更快。”上周，美联储官员预计，剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格的核心通胀率将在今年年底达到3.2%，比三个月前的预期下降了0.5%。Guha表示，问题在于，美联储官员究竟是觉得市场“完全错了”，还是同样认可通胀正在下行，只是不想现在就表达未来三个月后的立场，给市场太多乐观的希望。她相信，美联储官员对市场敷衍的反击表明多半是后者。但即使如此，许多市场分析人士还是警告投资者，不要小看美联储解决通胀问题的耐心。总部位于洛杉矶的资产管理公司 Payden & Rygel 的首席经济学家 Jeffrey Cleveland 表示：“美联储肯定希望确定通胀率将回到2%，而不是3%或者3.5%。在通胀目标上美联储不会妥协，他们有耐心去实现。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":158,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":true}