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紐西蘭盧哥

一切都是最好的安排

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- 紐西蘭盧哥紐西蘭盧哥
  ·2023-04-25
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- 紐西蘭盧哥紐西蘭盧哥
  ·2023-04-12
  $Calidus(CAI.AU)$
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- 紐西蘭盧哥紐西蘭盧哥
  ·2023-02-04
  $大全新能源(DQ)$ Q
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- 紐西蘭盧哥紐西蘭盧哥
  ·2023-01-16
  $Pepinnini Minerals Ltd(PNN.AU)$
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- 紐西蘭盧哥紐西蘭盧哥
  ·2022-11-15
  $Vintage Wine Estates Inc.(VWE)$
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- 紐西蘭盧哥紐西蘭盧哥
  ·2022-08-17
  Well done thanks
  Night Reading | The Hunting Methods of Wall Street Vultures
  当光鲜的白日梦变成了噩梦，市场秃鹰才悄悄开始肆意猎食。霍华德·马克斯，1946年人。美国沃顿商学院毕业，1968年末开始投身于花旗银行的股票分析行业，师从西格尔教授，谨遵“漂亮50”投资法，投资50家
  Night Reading | The Hunting Methods of Wall Street Vultures
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- 紐西蘭盧哥紐西蘭盧哥
  ·2021-05-02
  Well done
  "Stock God" Buffett's Q1 report card is here!
  伯克希尔哈撒韦今日公布2021年第一季度财报。财报显示，伯克希尔Q1营收645.99亿美元，市场预期635.39亿美元，去年同期612.65亿美元；净利117.11亿美元，市场预期净利润57.71亿美
  "Stock God" Buffett's Q1 report card is here!
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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DQ\">$大全新能源(DQ)$&nbsp;</a>Q","text":"$大全新能源(DQ)$ Q","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9955289644","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3875,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9958784760,"gmtCreate":1673828882851,"gmtModify":1676538890279,"author":{"id":"3549859314742531","authorId":"3549859314742531","name":"紐西蘭盧哥","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a677934b1963ad6aca018df0320e5eaf","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3549859314742531","idStr":"3549859314742531"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PNN.AU\">$Pepinnini Minerals Ltd(PNN.AU)$&nbsp;</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PNN.AU\">$Pepinnini Minerals Ltd(PNN.AU)$&nbsp;</a>","text":"$Pepinnini Minerals Ltd(PNN.AU)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9958784760","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3867,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9969296891,"gmtCreate":1668459577713,"gmtModify":1676538057984,"author":{"id":"3549859314742531","authorId":"3549859314742531","name":"紐西蘭盧哥","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a677934b1963ad6aca018df0320e5eaf","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3549859314742531","idStr":"3549859314742531"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/VWE\">$Vintage Wine Estates Inc.(VWE)$&nbsp;</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/VWE\">$Vintage Wine Estates Inc.(VWE)$&nbsp;</a>","text":"$Vintage Wine Estates Inc.(VWE)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9969296891","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3654,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9993872869,"gmtCreate":1660681020256,"gmtModify":1676536375684,"author":{"id":"3549859314742531","authorId":"3549859314742531","name":"紐西蘭盧哥","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a677934b1963ad6aca018df0320e5eaf","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3549859314742531","idStr":"3549859314742531"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Well done thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Well done thanks&nbsp;","text":"Well done thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9993872869","repostId":"1187867519","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187867519","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"秦朔朋友圈是由中国著名媒体人、财经观察家秦朔牵头创立的一个新媒体与专业服务品牌，包括微信公众号、微博、视频节目、音频节目等。内容聚焦于经济、金融和商业领域，关注重点为全球和中国财经商业热点、企业家精神、创新与发明创造、商业文明探索等。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"秦朔朋友圈","id":"60","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/707686f07ebc41778130c729f4eea24e"},"pubTimestamp":1660656382,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1187867519?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-16 21:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Night Reading | The Hunting Methods of Wall Street Vultures","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187867519","media":"秦朔朋友圈","summary":"当光鲜的白日梦变成了噩梦，市场秃鹰才悄悄开始肆意猎食。霍华德·马克斯，1946年人。美国沃顿商学院毕业，1968年末开始投身于花旗银行的股票分析行业，师从西格尔教授，谨遵“漂亮50”投资法，投资50家","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>When the glamorous daydream turned into a nightmare, the market vultures quietly began to hunt at will.</p><p>Howard Marks, born in 1946. A graduate of the Wharton School in the United States, he began working in the stock analysis industry at Citibank in late 1968, studying under Professor Siegel. He strictly followed the \"Beautiful 50\" investment method and invested in 50 of the best and fastest-growing companies in the United States, \"any price is fine, no problem.\" But after 10 years of hardship, Citibank's \"Beautiful 50\" lost 90% of its net worth.</p><p>It has been a long decade of hope and disappointment. It wasn't just \"Pretty 50\" who was stung, but also the young Howard Marks.</p><p><ul><li>\"Experience is what you get when you don't get what you want.\"</p><p></li><li>\"Investing is not a matter of what you buy, but a matter of what price you pay.\"</p><p></li><li>\"Investing is not about buying good things, but about buying well.\"</p><p></li></ul>What a painful realization... And the profound reflections sparked by this bumpy experience actually shaped Howard Marks' unique investment path, making him a generation of \"Wall Street vultures,\" a great master of contrarian investing, and the king of Wall Street cycle management.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd687f6d806c07ae4d6cf4722f9769da\" tg-width=\"890\" tg-height=\"501\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The power to dare to be different</b></p><p>Howard Marks' ankle-slashing \"Beautiful 50\" later led him to choose to leave the beloved stock market. After much difficulty, Max was influenced by Michael Milken, the junk bond tycoon, and turned to the US junk bond market. This was a niche market that few people visited at the time, but it was people's fear of junk debt and their disregard for the market that made Max see a huge opportunity.</p><p>“My career really started in 1978. For the past 40 years, I’ve basically been buying unwanted assets because you can only buy things cheaper when you buy assets that no one else wants.”</p><p>\"If you buy 3A bonds, there will be no excess returns, but if you buy B-rated bonds without default, the returns will be very substantial.\"</p><p>Starting in 1994, Howard Marks and his partner Bruce Cash founded...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OAK\">Oaktree Capital</a>Focusing on investing in the junk bond market. Between 1995 and 1998, the internet industry was booming, but Oaktree Capital waited patiently like a vulture. We will never act until we see a rabbit. It wasn't until around the time the millennium bubble burst that Max launched a formal \"home run\".</p><p>The most representative example was the bankruptcy reorganization of Regal Cinemas, a cinema chain at the time.</p><p>With the boom in the U.S. theater market, Regal Cinemas expanded aggressively through borrowing in the mid-to-late 1990s. In 1998, as the Federal Reserve raised lending rates and the market entered a downturn, the company began to fall into a debt crisis and teetered on the brink of bankruptcy. Investors, fearing a bleak future market outlook, are avoiding it. But Wall Street vulture and contrarian investment guru Max sensed a great opportunity.</p><p>Although Regal Cinemas is a company on the verge of bankruptcy, it owns many high-quality commercial real estate projects due to its strong accumulation in its early years. If it were to undergo a bankruptcy revaluation, the value of the company's commercial real estate projects would far exceed the current market price that no one is interested in.</p><p>So, when others panicked, Max was rational and greedy. Oaktree Capital acquired the company's debt cheaply for $800 million, quickly pushed for the company's bankruptcy reorganization, and made a fortune in the deal.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bfb231ab26e1db3d3db1f3cf0358704\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>| Figure: Oaktree Capital's assets under management</p><p>This is the power to dare to be different, the secret to Howard Marks' investment success, and the business secret that allows Oaktree Capital's asset size to grow significantly after every crisis. In 2008, the United States experienced a financial crisis, and the MBS subprime bond market was in dire straits, while Oaktree Capital, with ample ammunition, bought in with all its positions. In 2008 alone, Oaktree Capital made a whopping $6 billion. Every crisis that followed seemed to become Oaktree Capital's sweetest hitting area.</p><p><b>Understanding the perspective of cycles</b></p><p>Bald eagles have keen eyesight, sharp claws, and hooked beaks. So what was Howard Marks' big vision?</p><p>There are several clear threads in Howard Marks' basic investment philosophy:</p><p><ul><li>Investing must have a cycle;</p><p></li><li>Cycles are inevitable;</p><p></li><li>Macroeconomic timing is unreliable;</p><p></li><li>Contrarian investing and second-level thinking are the methods.</p><p></li></ul>Max liked to quote Mark Twain: \"History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes.\" Humans experience joys and sorrows, separations and reunions; the moon waxes and wanes; the sun rises in the east and sets in the west—all are cycles. Enterprises have life cycles of growth, maturity, and decline; industries have cycles of emergence, prosperity, and replacement; and the macroeconomy has cycles of recovery and recession. Understanding the existence of cycles is not difficult; the key is to understand the principles and inevitability of cycles—why can't people escape the curse of cycles?</p><p>Marks' memo in 2004<i><b>The Happy Medium</b></i>This raises a classic question: \"For 65 years since 1957, the S&P 500 has had an average annual return of 10%, but why has the annual return been around 10% for only 6 years during this period, while the actual return is far from the average return for the remaining 90% of the time? Why isn't the market presented evenly in the form of a 10% return per year?\"</p><p><b>Max's explanation is – excess and correction.</b></p><p>If the stock market were a physical machine, it might maintain the same rhythm for a period of time. But in reality, the main participants in the stock market are people, and the greed and fear of human nature determine that this is an inescapable market cycle.</p><p>When the market is optimistic, people assume that all asset prices will rise forever, and that someone else will always take over. When the bubble bursts and people are extremely pessimistic, they rush to cut their losses and leave the market, hiding in corners to heal themselves lonely and no longer cherish the value that is everywhere in the market.</p><p>Looking back at the history of financial markets, it has always been a history of alternating greed and fear, as well as a cyclical history of extreme optimism and pessimism. This is an economic law, a psychological law, and a law of social groups. This is the pendulum of a market cycle, a cycle that repeats itself and is constantly evolving; it is an \"inescapable cycle.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67285e48328a8b43e2b2b396b1be1acb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1639\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The method of controlling the cycle</b></p><p>The \"cycle\" is the broad vision that led Marx to be hailed as a \"Wall Street vulture,\" so what exactly was Marx's hook? Given the inevitable cycle, where does Max Investment's path to long-term success lie?</p><p>The \"philosophy of uncertainty\" in Japanese culture is a core idea that Musk studied and internalized from a young age, and Nassim Nicholas Taleb is Musk's most admired financial scholar. Perhaps it is precisely this accumulation and resonance that has led Marx to make two very important and firm conclusions regarding coping with cycles:</p><p>First, macroeconomic forecasts are unreliable;</p><p>Second, market timing is unreliable.</p><p>\"It's not that macroeconomic expectations are unimportant, but rather that major macroeconomic turning points are difficult to maintain correct predictions in the long term, and therefore difficult to generate sustainable value,\" Max said. Undeniably, there are always wise economists who can successfully predict inflection points at certain points in time. However, to date, no macroeconomist, whether in China or abroad, can be permanently correct. Just as in the long history of asset management, no one can avoid crises and successfully buy at the bottom every time, profits obtained through timing are not sustainable in the long term.</p><p>So how can we grasp this cyclical nature of the market, which is based on human nature?</p><p>\"You can't predict, but you can be prepared.\" Howard Marks believes that contrarian investing and second-level thinking are ways to overcome psychological cycles:</p><p><ul><li>Only by being different can we win. (To think differently and to feel differently.)</p><p></li><li>Without ignorance and prejudice, where would bargaining power come from? (If there is no ignorance there is no prejudice where the bargain comes from?)</p><p></li><li>If you're afraid, you'll lose. (Scared money never wins.)</p><p></li><li>The risk belongs to those who cut their losses and exit the market at the bottom. (Risk is the likelihood of being forced out at the bottom.)</p><p></li><li>Catching throwing knives is a source of profit, so be careful when controlling risks. (It's our job to catch falling knives. That's how you get bargains. But you have to do it carefully.)</p><p></li><li>Those who oppose it are the movement of the Dao, while those who are weak are the use of the Dao (Aggressive when people are depressed and defensive when people are excited.)</p><p></li><li>The daydream has finally woken up, are you ready? (Pipe dreams turn nightmares, and the vultures are ready for the hunt.)</p><p></li></ul>Let's rewind to the current market: the dark clouds of war, the recurring COVID-19 pandemic, the contraction of liquidity, the troubles in the real estate market... Every era has its share of events that disturb public sentiment and shatter confidence. Whenever the public sells off assets and reluctantly leaves the market in panic, Howard Marks, the former vulture, quietly begins his usual, long-planned, and prepared \"aggressive\" behavior.</p><p><ul><li>\"Now is the time to buy the dip.”</p><p></li><li>\"The time is ripe to pick up bargains.\"</p><p></li></ul>Howard Marks, who had endured hardship and cultivated himself during the bubble era, finally had another good time to snag \"cheap goods\".</p><p><ul><li>“I think waiting for the bottom is a terrible idea. We can’t say for sure when the market will bottom out, but when we think we can buy assets at a discount and get value cheaply, we can buy them. The assets we are currently seeing may be cheaper than their intrinsic value, and in that case, we will buy more.”</p><p></li></ul>The daydream has awakened, Max is ready, what about you?</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Night Reading | The Hunting Methods of Wall Street Vultures</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNight Reading | The Hunting Methods of Wall Street Vultures\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/60\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/707686f07ebc41778130c729f4eea24e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">秦朔朋友圈 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-08-16 21:26</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>When the glamorous daydream turned into a nightmare, the market vultures quietly began to hunt at will.</p><p>Howard Marks, born in 1946. A graduate of the Wharton School in the United States, he began working in the stock analysis industry at Citibank in late 1968, studying under Professor Siegel. He strictly followed the \"Beautiful 50\" investment method and invested in 50 of the best and fastest-growing companies in the United States, \"any price is fine, no problem.\" But after 10 years of hardship, Citibank's \"Beautiful 50\" lost 90% of its net worth.</p><p>It has been a long decade of hope and disappointment. It wasn't just \"Pretty 50\" who was stung, but also the young Howard Marks.</p><p><ul><li>\"Experience is what you get when you don't get what you want.\"</p><p></li><li>\"Investing is not a matter of what you buy, but a matter of what price you pay.\"</p><p></li><li>\"Investing is not about buying good things, but about buying well.\"</p><p></li></ul>What a painful realization... And the profound reflections sparked by this bumpy experience actually shaped Howard Marks' unique investment path, making him a generation of \"Wall Street vultures,\" a great master of contrarian investing, and the king of Wall Street cycle management.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd687f6d806c07ae4d6cf4722f9769da\" tg-width=\"890\" tg-height=\"501\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The power to dare to be different</b></p><p>Howard Marks' ankle-slashing \"Beautiful 50\" later led him to choose to leave the beloved stock market. After much difficulty, Max was influenced by Michael Milken, the junk bond tycoon, and turned to the US junk bond market. This was a niche market that few people visited at the time, but it was people's fear of junk debt and their disregard for the market that made Max see a huge opportunity.</p><p>“My career really started in 1978. For the past 40 years, I’ve basically been buying unwanted assets because you can only buy things cheaper when you buy assets that no one else wants.”</p><p>\"If you buy 3A bonds, there will be no excess returns, but if you buy B-rated bonds without default, the returns will be very substantial.\"</p><p>Starting in 1994, Howard Marks and his partner Bruce Cash founded...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OAK\">Oaktree Capital</a>Focusing on investing in the junk bond market. Between 1995 and 1998, the internet industry was booming, but Oaktree Capital waited patiently like a vulture. We will never act until we see a rabbit. It wasn't until around the time the millennium bubble burst that Max launched a formal \"home run\".</p><p>The most representative example was the bankruptcy reorganization of Regal Cinemas, a cinema chain at the time.</p><p>With the boom in the U.S. theater market, Regal Cinemas expanded aggressively through borrowing in the mid-to-late 1990s. In 1998, as the Federal Reserve raised lending rates and the market entered a downturn, the company began to fall into a debt crisis and teetered on the brink of bankruptcy. Investors, fearing a bleak future market outlook, are avoiding it. But Wall Street vulture and contrarian investment guru Max sensed a great opportunity.</p><p>Although Regal Cinemas is a company on the verge of bankruptcy, it owns many high-quality commercial real estate projects due to its strong accumulation in its early years. If it were to undergo a bankruptcy revaluation, the value of the company's commercial real estate projects would far exceed the current market price that no one is interested in.</p><p>So, when others panicked, Max was rational and greedy. Oaktree Capital acquired the company's debt cheaply for $800 million, quickly pushed for the company's bankruptcy reorganization, and made a fortune in the deal.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bfb231ab26e1db3d3db1f3cf0358704\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>| Figure: Oaktree Capital's assets under management</p><p>This is the power to dare to be different, the secret to Howard Marks' investment success, and the business secret that allows Oaktree Capital's asset size to grow significantly after every crisis. In 2008, the United States experienced a financial crisis, and the MBS subprime bond market was in dire straits, while Oaktree Capital, with ample ammunition, bought in with all its positions. In 2008 alone, Oaktree Capital made a whopping $6 billion. Every crisis that followed seemed to become Oaktree Capital's sweetest hitting area.</p><p><b>Understanding the perspective of cycles</b></p><p>Bald eagles have keen eyesight, sharp claws, and hooked beaks. So what was Howard Marks' big vision?</p><p>There are several clear threads in Howard Marks' basic investment philosophy:</p><p><ul><li>Investing must have a cycle;</p><p></li><li>Cycles are inevitable;</p><p></li><li>Macroeconomic timing is unreliable;</p><p></li><li>Contrarian investing and second-level thinking are the methods.</p><p></li></ul>Max liked to quote Mark Twain: \"History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes.\" Humans experience joys and sorrows, separations and reunions; the moon waxes and wanes; the sun rises in the east and sets in the west—all are cycles. Enterprises have life cycles of growth, maturity, and decline; industries have cycles of emergence, prosperity, and replacement; and the macroeconomy has cycles of recovery and recession. Understanding the existence of cycles is not difficult; the key is to understand the principles and inevitability of cycles—why can't people escape the curse of cycles?</p><p>Marks' memo in 2004<i><b>The Happy Medium</b></i>This raises a classic question: \"For 65 years since 1957, the S&P 500 has had an average annual return of 10%, but why has the annual return been around 10% for only 6 years during this period, while the actual return is far from the average return for the remaining 90% of the time? Why isn't the market presented evenly in the form of a 10% return per year?\"</p><p><b>Max's explanation is – excess and correction.</b></p><p>If the stock market were a physical machine, it might maintain the same rhythm for a period of time. But in reality, the main participants in the stock market are people, and the greed and fear of human nature determine that this is an inescapable market cycle.</p><p>When the market is optimistic, people assume that all asset prices will rise forever, and that someone else will always take over. When the bubble bursts and people are extremely pessimistic, they rush to cut their losses and leave the market, hiding in corners to heal themselves lonely and no longer cherish the value that is everywhere in the market.</p><p>Looking back at the history of financial markets, it has always been a history of alternating greed and fear, as well as a cyclical history of extreme optimism and pessimism. This is an economic law, a psychological law, and a law of social groups. This is the pendulum of a market cycle, a cycle that repeats itself and is constantly evolving; it is an \"inescapable cycle.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67285e48328a8b43e2b2b396b1be1acb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1639\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The method of controlling the cycle</b></p><p>The \"cycle\" is the broad vision that led Marx to be hailed as a \"Wall Street vulture,\" so what exactly was Marx's hook? Given the inevitable cycle, where does Max Investment's path to long-term success lie?</p><p>The \"philosophy of uncertainty\" in Japanese culture is a core idea that Musk studied and internalized from a young age, and Nassim Nicholas Taleb is Musk's most admired financial scholar. Perhaps it is precisely this accumulation and resonance that has led Marx to make two very important and firm conclusions regarding coping with cycles:</p><p>First, macroeconomic forecasts are unreliable;</p><p>Second, market timing is unreliable.</p><p>\"It's not that macroeconomic expectations are unimportant, but rather that major macroeconomic turning points are difficult to maintain correct predictions in the long term, and therefore difficult to generate sustainable value,\" Max said. Undeniably, there are always wise economists who can successfully predict inflection points at certain points in time. However, to date, no macroeconomist, whether in China or abroad, can be permanently correct. Just as in the long history of asset management, no one can avoid crises and successfully buy at the bottom every time, profits obtained through timing are not sustainable in the long term.</p><p>So how can we grasp this cyclical nature of the market, which is based on human nature?</p><p>\"You can't predict, but you can be prepared.\" Howard Marks believes that contrarian investing and second-level thinking are ways to overcome psychological cycles:</p><p><ul><li>Only by being different can we win. (To think differently and to feel differently.)</p><p></li><li>Without ignorance and prejudice, where would bargaining power come from? (If there is no ignorance there is no prejudice where the bargain comes from?)</p><p></li><li>If you're afraid, you'll lose. (Scared money never wins.)</p><p></li><li>The risk belongs to those who cut their losses and exit the market at the bottom. (Risk is the likelihood of being forced out at the bottom.)</p><p></li><li>Catching throwing knives is a source of profit, so be careful when controlling risks. (It's our job to catch falling knives. That's how you get bargains. But you have to do it carefully.)</p><p></li><li>Those who oppose it are the movement of the Dao, while those who are weak are the use of the Dao (Aggressive when people are depressed and defensive when people are excited.)</p><p></li><li>The daydream has finally woken up, are you ready? (Pipe dreams turn nightmares, and the vultures are ready for the hunt.)</p><p></li></ul>Let's rewind to the current market: the dark clouds of war, the recurring COVID-19 pandemic, the contraction of liquidity, the troubles in the real estate market... Every era has its share of events that disturb public sentiment and shatter confidence. Whenever the public sells off assets and reluctantly leaves the market in panic, Howard Marks, the former vulture, quietly begins his usual, long-planned, and prepared \"aggressive\" behavior.</p><p><ul><li>\"Now is the time to buy the dip.”</p><p></li><li>\"The time is ripe to pick up bargains.\"</p><p></li></ul>Howard Marks, who had endured hardship and cultivated himself during the bubble era, finally had another good time to snag \"cheap goods\".</p><p><ul><li>“I think waiting for the bottom is a terrible idea. We can’t say for sure when the market will bottom out, but when we think we can buy assets at a discount and get value cheaply, we can buy them. The assets we are currently seeing may be cheaper than their intrinsic value, and in that case, we will buy more.”</p><p></li></ul>The daydream has awakened, Max is ready, what about you?</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1a1ad69d0f22cf17bf15da18df75402","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187867519","content_text":"当光鲜的白日梦变成了噩梦，市场秃鹰才悄悄开始肆意猎食。霍华德·马克斯，1946年人。美国沃顿商学院毕业，1968年末开始投身于花旗银行的股票分析行业，师从西格尔教授，谨遵“漂亮50”投资法，投资50家美国最好、发展最快的公司，“任何价格都可以，没关系”。可苦苦挨了10年，花旗银行的“漂亮50”跌去了90%的净值。这是希望与失望的漫漫十年。被刺痛的也不止是“漂亮50”，更是年轻的霍华德·马克斯。“所谓经验就是当你没有得到你想要东西的时候你所能得到的”。“投资不是你买什么的问题，而是你付出什么价格的问题”。“投资不是买好东西，而是买得好”。多么痛彻的领悟……而这段坎坷引发的深刻思考反倒是造就了霍华德·马克斯特别的投资之路，成就了一代“华尔街秃鹰”、伟大的逆向投资大师、华尔街驾驭周期的王。敢于与众不同的力量脚踝斩的“漂亮50”让霍华德·马克斯后来选择离开了备受万千宠爱的股票市场。辗转间，马克斯受垃圾债大王迈克尔·米尔肯的影响，转向了美国的垃圾债市场。这是个在当时少有人问津的小众市场，但是正是人们对垃圾债的畏惧心理和市场的无视，让马克斯看到了巨大的机会。“1978年，我的职业生涯才真正开始，在过去的40年里，我基本上都是在买那些不受欢迎的资产，因为当你买别人都不想要的资产时，才能买到更便宜的东西”。“如果你买3A债，没有任何超额收益，但买B级债如果没有违约，收益会非常丰厚”。从1994年起，霍华德·马克斯与合伙人布鲁斯·卡什创立了橡树资本，专注于垃圾债市场的投资。1995年到1998年间，互联网行业欣欣向荣，但橡树资本一直像秃鹰一样耐心守候。没等到兔子，便绝不撒鹰。直到千禧泡沫破裂的前后，马克斯才展开了正式的“本垒打”。最有代表性的是当时影院连锁企业Regal Cinemas的破产重组。伴随着美国影院市场的繁荣，Regal Cinemas在90年代中后期大肆借贷扩张，1998年随着联储提高借贷利率和市场转入不景气，公司开始陷入债务危机，一度徘徊于破产边缘。投资人忌惮于未来市场前景的黯淡，纷纷避之而不及。但华尔街秃鹰、逆向投资大师马克斯却嗅到了大机会。Regal Cinemas虽是一家濒临破产的公司，但由于早年的良好积累，其旗下拥有很多优质的商业地产项目，如果进行破产重估，公司的商业地产项目价值会远超公司当前无人问津的市场价格。于是，别人恐慌的时候，马克斯理性而贪婪。橡树资本以8亿美金的价格便宜地拿下了公司的债务，快速推动公司破产重组，并在这笔交易中大赚了一笔。| 图：橡树资本的在管资产规模这是敢于与众不同的力量，是霍华德·马克斯投资的成功之道，也是橡树资本的资产规模在每一次危机后都能大上一个台阶的商业之道。2008年美国遭遇金融危机，MBS次级债市场一片哀嚎，而弹药充足的橡树资本全仓买入。2008年一年，橡树资本便大赚了60亿美金。以后的每一次危机，似乎都成为了橡树资本最甜蜜的击球区。理解周期的视野秃鹰有的是敏锐的视力，也有利爪和钩嘴。那么霍华德·马克斯的大视野是什么呢？在霍华德·马克斯的基本投资理念里，有几条清晰的主线：投资一定是有周期的；周期一定是逃不开的；宏观择时是不靠谱的；逆向投资、第二层次思维是法门。马克斯喜欢引用马克·吐温的一句话，“历史不会重演，但会押韵”。人有悲欢离合，月有阴晴圆缺，太阳东升西落，都是周期。企业有成长、成熟、衰退的生命周期，行业有萌芽、繁荣、更替的周期，宏观经济有复苏、萧条的周期。理解周期的存在不难，关键是理解周期的原理和必然——为什么人们总是逃不开周期的魔咒？马克斯在2004年备忘录The Happy Medium里提出了一个经典的问题：“自1957年以来的65年，标普500指数的年均回报率是10%，但这期间，为什么只有6年的年回报率在10%上下，而在其余在90%的时间里，实际回报率与平均回报率相差甚远？为什么市场不是以每年10%回报的形式均匀呈现呢？”马克斯的解释是——过度和修正。如果股市是台物理机器，那么是有可能在一段时间内保持相同的韵脚，但实际上股市的参与主体是人，人本性的贪婪与恐惧决定了这是逃不开的市场周期。当市场乐观的时候，人们会认为所有资产价格会永远上涨，总有其他人会接力；而当泡沫破灭极度悲观的时候，人们又匆匆忙忙地想要止损离场，躲在角落里落寞地自我疗愈，不再垂怜市场上那遍地的价值。回首金融市场的历史，总是贪婪与恐惧交替的历史，也总是极度乐观与悲观的周期史，这是经济规律，这是心理规律，这也是社会群体规律。这是市场周期的钟摆，周而复始，生生不息，是“逃不开的周期”。驾驭周期的法门“周期”是马克斯被奉之为“华尔街秃鹰”的大视野，那么马克斯的钩嘴又是什么呢？逃不开的周期下，马克斯投资的长赢之道在哪里？日本文化中的“不确定性哲学”是马克斯年少时就研习并内化的核心思想，纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布是马斯克最推崇的金融学家。或许正是这样的积淀和共鸣，让马克斯在应对周期上，有两个非常重要而笃定的论断：第一，宏观预测不靠谱；第二，市场择时不靠谱。“并非宏观预期不重要，而是重大的宏观转折很难长期保持正确预测，也就很难产生持续价值”，马克斯如是说。无可否定，总有睿智的经济学家可以在某些时点阶段性地成功预测拐点，但是，至今为止，还没有宏观经济学家可以永久正确，无论中外。就像在漫长的资管史上，没有人可以每次都躲过危机并抄底成功一样，靠择时获得的盈利也并不具有长期的可持续性。那么市场的这种基于人性的周期性究竟如何来把握呢？“你不能预测，但可以做好准备”。霍华德·马克斯认为，逆向投资、第二层次思维是克服心理周期的法门：不一样，才能赢。(To think differently and to feel differently.)没有无知与偏见，哪来的议价能力？（If there is no ignorance there is no prejudice where the bargain comes from?）怕，你就输了。（Scared money never wins.）风险属于底部割肉离场的人。（Risk is the likelihood of being forced out at the bottom.）接飞刀是利润之源，控制风险要小心行事。（It’s our job to catch falling knives. That’s how you get bargains. But you have to do it carefully.）反者道之动，弱者道之用。(Aggressive when people are depressive and defensive when people are excited.)白日梦终醒，你准备好了么？(Pipe dreams turn nightmares, and the vultures are ready for the hunt. )把时间来拉回到当下的市场，战争的乌云、新冠的反复、流动性的收缩、房地产的烦扰…… 每个时代总是有扰动大众心绪和涣散信心的一桩桩、一件件。而每当大众在恐慌情绪下纷纷抛售资产、忍痛离场的时候，一代秃鹰霍华德·马克斯却又默默开始了惯常的、预谋已久的、有备而来的“咄咄逼人”。“现在是时候抄底了。”“捡便宜货的时机已成熟。”卧薪尝胆、修身克已于泡沫飞扬年代的霍华德·马克斯终于又等到了抢购“便宜货”的好时候。“我认为等待底部是一个可怕的想法，我们没法断言市场何时触底，但当我们认为能够以折扣价格买入资产、以廉价获得价值时，就可以买了，我们目前所见到的资产可能要比内在价值更便宜，在这种情况下，我们会买更多。”白日梦已醒，马克斯准备好了，你呢？","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5094,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108080861,"gmtCreate":1619960980153,"gmtModify":1704336789164,"author":{"id":"3549859314742531","authorId":"3549859314742531","name":"紐西蘭盧哥","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a677934b1963ad6aca018df0320e5eaf","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3549859314742531","idStr":"3549859314742531"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Well done&nbsp;","listText":"Well done&nbsp;","text":"Well done","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/108080861","repostId":"1149032296","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149032296","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1619870438,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1149032296?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-01 20:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"\"Stock God\" Buffett's Q1 report card is here!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149032296","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"伯克希尔哈撒韦今日公布2021年第一季度财报。财报显示，伯克希尔Q1营收645.99亿美元，市场预期635.39亿美元，去年同期612.65亿美元；净利117.11亿美元，市场预期净利润57.71亿美","content":"<p>Berkshire Hathaway today reported its first quarter 2021 earnings results. The financial report shows that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Q1 revenue was US$64.599 billion, market expectation of US$63.539 billion, and US$61.265 billion in the same period last year; Net profit was USD 11.711 billion, the market expected net profit was USD 5.771 billion, and the net loss in the same period last year was USD 49.746 billion; Class A common shares earned $7,638 per share, compared to a loss of $30,653 per share in the same period last year; Class B common shares earned $5.09 per share, compared to a loss of $20.44 per share in the year-ago quarter.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNLive&rndata=%7B%22liveId%22:%2216193212265363%22%7D\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Buffett's live broadcast of shareholders' meeting will start at 1 a.m. Beijing time on May 2</b></a><b></b></p><p>Berkshire Hathaway earned $7.02 billion in operating profit in the first quarter and repurchased $6.6 billion in stock.</p><p>As of March 31, 2021, the top 4 holdings remained<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>($21.4 billion),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>($110.9 billion),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>($40 billion),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca Cola</a>($21.1 billion), which together represent 69% of the overall equity holdings. At the end of the fourth quarter of last year, the market value of these four positions was 18.3 billion USD, 120.4 billion USD, 31.3 billion USD and 21.9 billion USD respectively, accounting for 68% of the total stock holdings.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/214a0fd89ce8ab62b293a0c1a5873d74\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"781\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Berkshire had cash reserves of $145.4 billion in the first quarter and $138.3 billion at the end of 2020; Premium income was $16,424 million, compared to $15,748 million in the same period last year; Sales and services revenue was US$33.698 billion, compared with US$31.926 billion in the same period last year; Rental revenue was $1,324 million, compared to $1,428 million in the same period last year; Interest, dividend and other investment income was $1,851 million, compared with $2,276 million in the same period last year; Rail, utilities and energy revenue was $11.302 billion, compared to $9.887 billion in the year-ago quarter.</p><p>At the end of Berkshire's first quarter, insurance floats stood at about $140 billion. Net income from investments and derivatives was $4.69 billion in the first quarter, compared with a loss of $55.62 billion in the same period last year.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"Stock God\" Buffett's Q1 report card is here!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Stock God\" Buffett's Q1 report card is here!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-01 20:00</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Berkshire Hathaway today reported its first quarter 2021 earnings results. The financial report shows that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Q1 revenue was US$64.599 billion, market expectation of US$63.539 billion, and US$61.265 billion in the same period last year; Net profit was USD 11.711 billion, the market expected net profit was USD 5.771 billion, and the net loss in the same period last year was USD 49.746 billion; Class A common shares earned $7,638 per share, compared to a loss of $30,653 per share in the same period last year; Class B common shares earned $5.09 per share, compared to a loss of $20.44 per share in the year-ago quarter.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNLive&rndata=%7B%22liveId%22:%2216193212265363%22%7D\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Buffett's live broadcast of shareholders' meeting will start at 1 a.m. Beijing time on May 2</b></a><b></b></p><p>Berkshire Hathaway earned $7.02 billion in operating profit in the first quarter and repurchased $6.6 billion in stock.</p><p>As of March 31, 2021, the top 4 holdings remained<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>($21.4 billion),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>($110.9 billion),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>($40 billion),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca Cola</a>($21.1 billion), which together represent 69% of the overall equity holdings. At the end of the fourth quarter of last year, the market value of these four positions was 18.3 billion USD, 120.4 billion USD, 31.3 billion USD and 21.9 billion USD respectively, accounting for 68% of the total stock holdings.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/214a0fd89ce8ab62b293a0c1a5873d74\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"781\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Berkshire had cash reserves of $145.4 billion in the first quarter and $138.3 billion at the end of 2020; Premium income was $16,424 million, compared to $15,748 million in the same period last year; Sales and services revenue was US$33.698 billion, compared with US$31.926 billion in the same period last year; Rental revenue was $1,324 million, compared to $1,428 million in the same period last year; Interest, dividend and other investment income was $1,851 million, compared with $2,276 million in the same period last year; Rail, utilities and energy revenue was $11.302 billion, compared to $9.887 billion in the year-ago quarter.</p><p>At the end of Berkshire's first quarter, insurance floats stood at about $140 billion. Net income from investments and derivatives was $4.69 billion in the first quarter, compared with a loss of $55.62 billion in the same period last year.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9beffeecb928009bf6287e307899ffe3","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149032296","content_text":"伯克希尔哈撒韦今日公布2021年第一季度财报。财报显示，伯克希尔Q1营收645.99亿美元，市场预期635.39亿美元，去年同期612.65亿美元；净利117.11亿美元，市场预期净利润57.71亿美元，去年同期净亏损497.46亿美元；A类普通股每股盈利7638美元，去年同期每股亏损30653美元；B类普通股每股盈利5.09美元，去年同期每股亏损20.44美元。巴菲特股东大会直播将于北京时间5月2日凌晨1点开始伯克希尔哈撒韦第一季度运营利润70.2亿美元，回购66亿美元股票。截至2021年3月31日，前4大持仓仍为美国运通（214亿美元）、苹果（1109亿美元）、美国银行（400亿美元）、可口可乐（211亿美元），合计占整体股票持仓的69%。去年四季度末，这四大持仓市值分别为183亿美元，1204亿美元，313亿美元，219亿美元，合计占整体股票持仓的68%。伯克希尔第一季度现金储备为1454亿美元，2020年底的现金储备为1383亿美元；保费收入为164.24亿美元，去年同期为157.48亿美元；销售与服务收入为336.98亿美元，去年同期为319.26亿美元；租赁收入为13.24亿美元，去年同期为14.28亿美元；利息、分红和其他投资收入为18.51亿美元，去年同期为22.76亿美元；铁路、公用设施和能源收入为113.02亿美元，去年同期为98.87亿美元。伯克希尔一季度末，保险浮存金约为1400亿美元。一季度投资和衍生品净收益为46.9亿美元，去年同期亏损556.2亿美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.B":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3583,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":true}