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RonZ
RonZ
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2020-11-20
ref mark
JPMorgan Chase's latest report: 64 charts show you the complete picture of the current state of the US stock market.
导读:JP Morgan资产管理的Guide to Markets系列报告,是我们必读,并且一定会翻译的文章。在这一份图文并茂的报告中,清楚刻画了全球大类资产和美国股票市场在一个什么样的位置,以及当下
JPMorgan Chase's latest report: 64 charts show you the complete picture of the current state of the US stock market.
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RonZ
RonZ
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2020-11-14
Research Ref.
@秋木林:
1.$網易(NTES)$財報看好,網易短期看到103附近,長期看到1000億市值(還有61%漲幅) 2.$京東(JD)$財報看好,沒趕上$拼多多(PDD)$的,可以考慮進京東,短期利潤10%-20%。 3.長線佈局單: yalla,gold,一線國民銀行,網易,紐曼礦業,虎牙,聲網,阿里,騰訊等。 4.$理想汽車(LI)$財報看好,預計財報會爆,超乎想象,短線看32附近。長線看到40美元上方(還有52%漲幅)$小鵬汽車(XPEV)$還可以拿到43左右。 5.騰訊音樂,虎牙鬥魚財報都利好,低多不用擔心。海外公司: 大麻基本面好的apha,cgc(漲幅慢,但也抗跌)瘋狗的acb,tlry,sndl,等,但注意風險,利潤100%就要走不能貪了思路依舊是低多財報利好的科技公司: etsy,PayPal,fb,谷歌,寶潔,高通,w,拉姆研究,pins,snap,愛立信,fvrr,shop,chwy,se,京東,tdd,sq,twlo,lulu,fb,adbe,amd,tsla等等。類似暴雷的公司,千萬別做多。適當情況下還可做空保護:類似跟誰學,好未來,蘋果,還有蘋果未來跑不過其他四大,甚至跑不過納指ETF。
1.$網易(NTES)$財報看好,網易短期看到103附近,長期看到1000億市值(還有61%漲幅) 2.$京東(JD)$財報看好,沒趕上$拼多多(PDD)$的,可以考慮進京東,短期利潤10%-20%。 3.長線佈局單: yalla,gold,一線國民銀行,網易,紐曼礦業,虎牙,聲網,阿里,騰訊等。 4.$理想汽車(LI)$財報看好,預計財報會爆,超乎想象,短線看32附近。長線看到40美元上方(還有52%漲幅)$小鵬汽車(XPEV)$還可以拿到43左右。 5.騰訊音樂,虎牙鬥魚財報都利好,低多不用擔心。海外公司: 大麻基本面好的apha,cgc(漲幅慢,但也抗跌)瘋狗的acb,tlry,sndl,等,但注意風險,利潤100%就要走不能貪了思路依舊是低多財報利好的科技公司: etsy,PayPal,fb,谷歌,寶潔,高通,w,拉姆研究,pins,snap,愛立信,fvrr,shop,chwy,se,京東,tdd,sq,twlo,lulu,fb,adbe,amd,tsla等等。類似暴雷的公司,千萬別做多。適當情況下還可做空保護:類似跟誰學,好未來,蘋果,還有蘋果未來跑不過其他四大,甚至跑不過納指ETF。
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mark","listText":"ref mark","text":"ref mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/390539329","repostId":"1199570467","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199570467","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1605784535,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1199570467?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2020-11-19 19:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"JPMorgan Chase's latest report: 64 charts show you the complete picture of the current state of the US stock market.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199570467","media":"杰晶维基","summary":"导读:JP Morgan资产管理的Guide to Markets系列报告,是我们必读,并且一定会翻译的文章。在这一份图文并茂的报告中,清楚刻画了全球大类资产和美国股票市场在一个什么样的位置,以及当下","content":"<p>Introduction: JP Morgan Asset Management's Guide to Markets series of reports is a must-read and a must-translate. This illustrated report clearly depicts the position of major global asset classes and the US stock market, as well as the main contradictions in the current market. Below is our full translation of the JP Morgan Guide To Markets for Q3, which we hope will be helpful To you.</p><p>Article Source | JPM Guide To The Markets 3Q2020</p><p><b>Third Quarter 2020 Market Guide</b></p><p><b>I. Stock Market</b></p><p>S&P 500 at the inflection point: The S&P 500 rose 401% from its low on March 9, 2009, to its high on February 19, 2020, and then fell 8% so far (June 30, 2020).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a18e0ffe1c0316a38c8113324472ffb3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"713\"></p><p>The S&P 500 was valued at 21.72X on June 30, 2020, compared to an average valuation of 16.39X over the past 25 years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9e11e55741b65a5d78baa25c0c899a5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"728\"></p><p>P/E and stock returns</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/110b1789625eae158cc2bf20798185f3\" tg-width=\"1070\" tg-height=\"722\"></p><p>In the first half of 2020, returns across all sectors of the S&P 500 index declined year-on-year, with the energy market experiencing the largest decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537452eb0bd669c8f539ef441a83d258\" tg-width=\"1073\" tg-height=\"721\"></p><p>Sources of EPS growth: The annualized EPS growth rate of the S&P 500 in Q1 2020 was -48.7%, with the annualized profit margin growth of 47.3% among the three contributing factors being the main reason for the negative EPS growth.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7919c34ea590e51d964001dd7b18921\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"712\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bd3b5092101c18b05430fa996692b6b\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"719\"></p><p>Value VS. Growth: In the first half of 2020, the value-to-growth return was 0.97, and 56.1% of the stocks in the value index had a beta greater than 1.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2f57d47f51477c3e49fbab285e3ff6e\" tg-width=\"1072\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>Returns and valuations of different styles: On a quarterly basis, small-cap, high-growth types have the best returns, reaching 30.6%; On an annual basis, large-cap stocks with high growth performed best at 9.8%, followed by mid-cap stocks with high growth at 4.2%, while all other stocks experienced negative growth.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a92dd309dda7f7b8d8df70084da84456\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"729\"></p><p>Returns and valuations of different sectors: Quarterly, the consumer sector performed best, reaching 32.9%; On an annual basis, the technology sector performed best at 15%, followed by the consumer sector at 7.2%, with all other sectors experiencing negative growth.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49a01ead2a01d33a4e1a034bc49ab941\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"729\"></p><p>Factor performance: Between 2005 and 2019, the momentum factor yielded the best return at 11%, followed by the low-volatility factor at 10.2%, and the small-cap factor yielded the lowest return at 7.9%, with the highest volatility.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29327a097af15b1770aa626bd3c12dde\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"739\"></p><p>Annualized returns and corrections during the year</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37bc5b62ed92fb215203dacf6bde9324\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"716\"></p><p>market volatility</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bae8b1a5a5eeb6c5fcd3b6308e81e29f\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"718\"></p><p>Probability of a bear market and subsequent bull market</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c5fe5085decf2bc580c48c3ace506e2\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"717\"></p><p>Stock market since 1990</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56fe0c2c007b848ad21f722bdc8a0cef\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"723\"></p><p><b>II. Macroeconomic Market</b></p><p>Past recessions in the United States</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69b03d7344437383b250399dd3daed75\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"718\"></p><p>Economic growth and GDP composition: In Q1 2020, 67.7% of the US nominal GDP was consumption, 17.9% was government spending, 12.9% was investment excluding real estate, and 4.0% was real estate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f8f6de1c9e775f4e447be266ac8c83c\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"715\"></p><p>COVID-19: US confirmed cases and death toll</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fe3abac28505c317b841989aba61441\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"715\"></p><p>High-frequency economic data</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56b499f833a7fc507a2acf22536f77ce\" tg-width=\"1066\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>Consumer finance: 27% of U.S. consumers' assets are real estate, 21% are retirement funds, and 66% of their liabilities are mortgages.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46864dd1b0ffda4daebef00c88dfedd8\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"721\"></p><p>Income Inequality in the U.S. Economy</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7c8953d94bbf9699ec7c8f2585483e0\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"721\"></p><p>Long-term drivers of the US economy</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1452bc9690088e93fcc24cce8ed0a1cd\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>Federal Finance</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b9ac282acb1938128b122c4ae350126\" tg-width=\"1066\" tg-height=\"715\"></p><p>Employment and wages</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f799be89847ceece12cdd7e8d3f63f0f\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"714\"></p><p>Business sentiment and the economic cycle</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5638d3cf6e5ae0565c687956403e942\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"716\"></p><p>Employment and income of people with different levels of education</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d458389393acbdfd36154bf87f55d72\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"716\"></p><p>inflation</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af3a6df4d4c52ebe2ea87446a7fe5894\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"714\"></p><p>US dollar drivers</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3b4291d052609e7a56fd89cdf14b786\" tg-width=\"1062\" tg-height=\"718\"></p><p>Crude oil market</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/611738157dd48a34a8e2aa1ac371d972\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>Federal policy interest rates: The FOMC June minutes show that US GDP will shrink by 6.5% in 2020, the unemployment rate will reach 9.3% in Q4, and the personal consumption expenditures deflator (PCE) will be 0.8%. Long-term outlook: US GDP growth is projected at 1.8%, unemployment rate at 4.1%, and PCEWEI at 2.0%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62c3fe73620490f799abce304edd13ea\" tg-width=\"1054\" tg-height=\"712\"></p><p>The Federal Reserve's balance sheet</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2af53b31bbd2fb1ad2f165671fd99c02\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"723\"></p><p>Interest rates and inflation rates</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d3729517c089d5da26a53c848470917\" tg-width=\"1056\" tg-height=\"709\"></p><p><b>III. Fixed Income Market</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffcebd15c6eefc404875cf47357f58a2\" tg-width=\"1062\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>yield curve</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3bb5950dcdb305cc7297025ce997d45\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"721\"></p><p>Fixed yield and its relationship with stock market</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/513ddb847ef2cf3c2bcd2e30f3ab1c66\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"723\"></p><p>High-yield bonds: The average default rate of 30-year high-yield bonds was 3.56%, compared to 4.85% as of June 30, 2020;</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f25ad52cd22baea2f5715a902886ae3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"712\"></p><p>Corporate bonds: Government bonds accounted for 103.9% of the total in the fourth quarter of 2019, a historical high; household bonds accounted for 75.4% of the total in the fourth quarter of 2019; and non-financial corporate bonds accounted for 74.9% of the total in the fourth quarter of 2019. Baa investment-grade corporate bonds accounted for 48.6% of the total at the end of the second quarter of 2020, a decrease compared to the previous quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/041a2e9deb4a46b72308beb86d76d638\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>Negative-yield debt: As of May 31, 2020, the Japanese government held $5.35 trillion in negative-yield government debt, European governments held $5.49 trillion in negative-yield government debt, and global corporate debt held $1.27 trillion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45315747bbe42ceb007d64ebe88fc74f\" tg-width=\"1072\" tg-height=\"724\"></p><p>Bond market liquidity: In the first quarter of 2020, bond inventories held by major bond underwriters accounted for 0.3% of total U.S. corporate bonds, an increase from the previous quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8049bd9b6540852ee8b1ff0db1559e60\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"719\"></p><p>Global Monetary Policy: It is predicted that bond purchases by major central banks in developed countries will continue to increase significantly in 2021, with the Federal Reserve remaining the largest in terms of bond purchases, a marked increase compared to 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbd569de80d6dc612825fe1e2f8272c8\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"721\"></p><p>Global Fixed Income Markets: As of the end of 2019, U.S. bonds totaled $41 trillion, other developed countries (excluding the U.S.) held $47 trillion, and emerging markets held $26 trillion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25194b438ce9d426e77a832650176ad8\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"722\"></p><p>Comparison of fixed income market returns: From 2005 to 2019, emerging dollar bonds had the highest average yield at 7.3% annualized, but they also had the highest volatility at 10.6%, followed by high-yield bonds, while ABS had the lowest yield.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f45d1ea510a225f5830d7a25abc81049\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"731\"></p><p>Global Stock Markets: Over the past 15 years, the US stock market (represented by the S&P 500) has had the highest average return at 9.0%, followed by emerging markets at 7.8%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5eacb07cc66107de528d334016aa7219\" tg-width=\"1070\" tg-height=\"723\"></p><p>Sources of global stock returns: From 2005 to 2019, the largest contributor to US equity market returns was return growth, followed by dividends, while valuation multiples contributed the least. Currencies in emerging markets and European markets other than the UK contributed negatively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4247d7c94c33c6853bad3f2ebceb960d\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"724\"></p><p>Currency and international equity returns: A stronger US dollar is detrimental to international equity market returns, while a weaker US dollar is beneficial to international equity markets; In 2019, the US dollar had a negative 10.8% impact on the returns of the MSCI Global Excluding the US index.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e6774f10d1bfe39f0e8e33696b27e8f\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"724\"></p><p>U.S. and international equity markets at the inflection point: From 2009 to June 30, 2020, the S&P 500 index returned 401%, followed by an 8% correction, while the ACWI U.S. equity market index returned 143% during the same period, followed by a 19% correction.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7095c48d9d78a4f1c01fe3cc2a4327c7\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"724\"></p><p>International stock earnings and valuations: Earnings of global listed companies all declined in 2020; From a valuation perspective, the US stock market currently has the highest PE ratio at 21.77X.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6454026010a23666f23ab52abc0cddeb\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"719\"></p><p>Global economic growth: In May 2020, the services PMI index was 35.2 and the manufacturing index was 42.4%, both below the expansion/contraction threshold, but both showed a significant rebound month-on-month. Global real GDP growth was -1.7% in the first quarter of 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee3338968fa0ca9e427723452fdc52c3\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>COVID-19: Confirmed cases and deaths worldwide</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6351ccfc46e8d2a4c24f64d30f88470\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"724\"></p><p>Global High-Frequency Economic Activity Index: Developed countries have all rebounded from their lows in March, but are believed to be below 0; Among developing countries, Japan, Taiwan, and Russia recovered relatively quickly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b89f78a253ebbba4020142b5f9ce938d\" tg-width=\"1062\" tg-height=\"723\"></p><p>Services Sector Momentum: In June 2020, the services PMI indices of major developed countries all rebounded, with France reaching 50.3.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/079b0e943a0343cb8abda7840ba8b7c4\" tg-width=\"1060\" tg-height=\"715\"></p><p>Global inflation rate: Inflation rates in most major countries around the world declined in May compared to April.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33b2d843b03e94187b223901aa7d6e5b\" tg-width=\"1061\" tg-height=\"716\"></p><p>Fiscal support for COVID-19: Italy, Germany, and Japan provided the largest amount of fiscal support, with Italy's fiscal expenditure reaching 34% of GDP.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b0d15069c81607e61f0da3726b0b4d8\" tg-width=\"1062\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>China's economic situation: China's economic growth rate in the first quarter of 2020 was -6.8%, of which investment was -1.5%, consumption was -4.4%, and net exports were -1.0%; The fiscal deficit is projected to reach 14% of GDP in 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc9150d30e11c4c4cb9efbcb9e4167db\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"717\"></p><p>Emerging Markets: Emerging market GDP growth is expected to remain positive in 2020, while developed countries are projected to be negative, with the difference widening month-on-month.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c48d84477b90e43ce2063dd7fa24a534\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"723\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0400abd09ad05bbd17dabfa6e3a6d05f\" tg-width=\"1066\" tg-height=\"731\"></p><p>Hedge funds: Macro hedge funds are expected to decline relative to the hedge fund research index in 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97b2d590c388dd2019c33254beede1a5\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"717\"></p><p>Private equity market: Overall, the returns of the private equity market are higher than those of MSCI ACWI Global Secondary Market stocks; In 2019, U.S. private equity funds raised approximately $1.2 trillion but had not yet invested it.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/482a12baff7d422cd3cc683781794138\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"718\"></p><p>Among alternative investment categories, the Alerian MLP ETF offers the highest annualized return of 15.2%, while the US 10-year Treasury Bond yields only 0.7%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/109a4978b330f77f8e99eaa03000af02\" tg-width=\"1070\" tg-height=\"733\"></p><p>Global commodities: On June 30, 2020, gold prices were $1,801 per ounce, relatively consistent with inflation-adjusted prices, showing a significant upward trend.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f7e0e2b411db3ef5c04e690946d7285\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>The global multi-asset portfolio (25% S&P 500 Index, 10% Russell 2000 Index, 15% MSCI EAFE Index, 5% MSCI EME, 25% Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Composite Index, 5% Bloomberg Barclays 1-3 Month Treasury Bond Index, 5% Bloomberg Barclays High Yield Bond Index, 5% Bloomberg Barclays Commodity Index, and 5% NAREIT Equity REIT Index) yielded 19.5% in 2019, with an annualized return of 6.6% from 2005 to 2019.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83a6c12de58ceacf8ffdf02ec2409b96\" tg-width=\"1073\" tg-height=\"735\"></p><p>Fund inflows: Since 2007, a total of $2.611 trillion in mutual funds and ETFs have flowed into the bond market, but this declined in 2020; $1.467 trillion flowed into the stock market, and $602 billion into other major asset classes.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63401695f4ac6d02dc3419af9728b772\" tg-width=\"1072\" tg-height=\"721\"></p><p>Over the past 20 years, the average annualized return of the stock market has been 11.3%, the annualized return of bonds has been 5.9%, and the 50/50 portfolio has yielded 8.9%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f95545786d706ca43310fbd15eae7bbe\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"717\"></p><p>Among alternative asset classes, REITs have the highest annualized return over the past 20 years (1999-2019) at 11.6%, followed by precious metal gold at 8.6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48f6e4a52ed3ed61103cb95a7723d462\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"721\"></p><p>By the end of the second quarter, 37% of Republicans rated the national economy as excellent or good, while only 11% of Democrats rated it as excellent or good.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2d1d00672e5cfbc938b689011459177\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"719\"></p><p>In 2020, a $100,000 savings account could earn $280, but it would require $1,236 to cover the negative returns from inflation, $2,046 to eliminate the negative returns from education inflation, and $4,904 to eliminate the negative returns from healthcare.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/beedd7f7cb4688ee182e03940d83713a\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"725\"></p>","source":"lsy1595209191943","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JPMorgan Chase's latest report: 64 charts show you the complete picture of the current state of the US stock market.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJPMorgan Chase's latest report: 64 charts show you the complete picture of the current state of the US stock market.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">杰晶维基</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2020-11-19 19:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Introduction: JP Morgan Asset Management's Guide to Markets series of reports is a must-read and a must-translate. This illustrated report clearly depicts the position of major global asset classes and the US stock market, as well as the main contradictions in the current market. Below is our full translation of the JP Morgan Guide To Markets for Q3, which we hope will be helpful To you.</p><p>Article Source | JPM Guide To The Markets 3Q2020</p><p><b>Third Quarter 2020 Market Guide</b></p><p><b>I. Stock Market</b></p><p>S&P 500 at the inflection point: The S&P 500 rose 401% from its low on March 9, 2009, to its high on February 19, 2020, and then fell 8% so far (June 30, 2020).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a18e0ffe1c0316a38c8113324472ffb3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"713\"></p><p>The S&P 500 was valued at 21.72X on June 30, 2020, compared to an average valuation of 16.39X over the past 25 years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9e11e55741b65a5d78baa25c0c899a5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"728\"></p><p>P/E and stock returns</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/110b1789625eae158cc2bf20798185f3\" tg-width=\"1070\" tg-height=\"722\"></p><p>In the first half of 2020, returns across all sectors of the S&P 500 index declined year-on-year, with the energy market experiencing the largest decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537452eb0bd669c8f539ef441a83d258\" tg-width=\"1073\" tg-height=\"721\"></p><p>Sources of EPS growth: The annualized EPS growth rate of the S&P 500 in Q1 2020 was -48.7%, with the annualized profit margin growth of 47.3% among the three contributing factors being the main reason for the negative EPS growth.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7919c34ea590e51d964001dd7b18921\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"712\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bd3b5092101c18b05430fa996692b6b\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"719\"></p><p>Value VS. Growth: In the first half of 2020, the value-to-growth return was 0.97, and 56.1% of the stocks in the value index had a beta greater than 1.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2f57d47f51477c3e49fbab285e3ff6e\" tg-width=\"1072\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>Returns and valuations of different styles: On a quarterly basis, small-cap, high-growth types have the best returns, reaching 30.6%; On an annual basis, large-cap stocks with high growth performed best at 9.8%, followed by mid-cap stocks with high growth at 4.2%, while all other stocks experienced negative growth.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a92dd309dda7f7b8d8df70084da84456\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"729\"></p><p>Returns and valuations of different sectors: Quarterly, the consumer sector performed best, reaching 32.9%; On an annual basis, the technology sector performed best at 15%, followed by the consumer sector at 7.2%, with all other sectors experiencing negative growth.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49a01ead2a01d33a4e1a034bc49ab941\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"729\"></p><p>Factor performance: Between 2005 and 2019, the momentum factor yielded the best return at 11%, followed by the low-volatility factor at 10.2%, and the small-cap factor yielded the lowest return at 7.9%, with the highest volatility.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29327a097af15b1770aa626bd3c12dde\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"739\"></p><p>Annualized returns and corrections during the year</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37bc5b62ed92fb215203dacf6bde9324\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"716\"></p><p>market volatility</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bae8b1a5a5eeb6c5fcd3b6308e81e29f\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"718\"></p><p>Probability of a bear market and subsequent bull market</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c5fe5085decf2bc580c48c3ace506e2\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"717\"></p><p>Stock market since 1990</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56fe0c2c007b848ad21f722bdc8a0cef\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"723\"></p><p><b>II. Macroeconomic Market</b></p><p>Past recessions in the United States</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69b03d7344437383b250399dd3daed75\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"718\"></p><p>Economic growth and GDP composition: In Q1 2020, 67.7% of the US nominal GDP was consumption, 17.9% was government spending, 12.9% was investment excluding real estate, and 4.0% was real estate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f8f6de1c9e775f4e447be266ac8c83c\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"715\"></p><p>COVID-19: US confirmed cases and death toll</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fe3abac28505c317b841989aba61441\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"715\"></p><p>High-frequency economic data</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56b499f833a7fc507a2acf22536f77ce\" tg-width=\"1066\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>Consumer finance: 27% of U.S. consumers' assets are real estate, 21% are retirement funds, and 66% of their liabilities are mortgages.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46864dd1b0ffda4daebef00c88dfedd8\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"721\"></p><p>Income Inequality in the U.S. Economy</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7c8953d94bbf9699ec7c8f2585483e0\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"721\"></p><p>Long-term drivers of the US economy</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1452bc9690088e93fcc24cce8ed0a1cd\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>Federal Finance</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b9ac282acb1938128b122c4ae350126\" tg-width=\"1066\" tg-height=\"715\"></p><p>Employment and wages</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f799be89847ceece12cdd7e8d3f63f0f\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"714\"></p><p>Business sentiment and the economic cycle</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5638d3cf6e5ae0565c687956403e942\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"716\"></p><p>Employment and income of people with different levels of education</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d458389393acbdfd36154bf87f55d72\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"716\"></p><p>inflation</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af3a6df4d4c52ebe2ea87446a7fe5894\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"714\"></p><p>US dollar drivers</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3b4291d052609e7a56fd89cdf14b786\" tg-width=\"1062\" tg-height=\"718\"></p><p>Crude oil market</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/611738157dd48a34a8e2aa1ac371d972\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>Federal policy interest rates: The FOMC June minutes show that US GDP will shrink by 6.5% in 2020, the unemployment rate will reach 9.3% in Q4, and the personal consumption expenditures deflator (PCE) will be 0.8%. Long-term outlook: US GDP growth is projected at 1.8%, unemployment rate at 4.1%, and PCEWEI at 2.0%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62c3fe73620490f799abce304edd13ea\" tg-width=\"1054\" tg-height=\"712\"></p><p>The Federal Reserve's balance sheet</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2af53b31bbd2fb1ad2f165671fd99c02\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"723\"></p><p>Interest rates and inflation rates</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d3729517c089d5da26a53c848470917\" tg-width=\"1056\" tg-height=\"709\"></p><p><b>III. Fixed Income Market</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffcebd15c6eefc404875cf47357f58a2\" tg-width=\"1062\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>yield curve</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3bb5950dcdb305cc7297025ce997d45\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"721\"></p><p>Fixed yield and its relationship with stock market</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/513ddb847ef2cf3c2bcd2e30f3ab1c66\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"723\"></p><p>High-yield bonds: The average default rate of 30-year high-yield bonds was 3.56%, compared to 4.85% as of June 30, 2020;</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f25ad52cd22baea2f5715a902886ae3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"712\"></p><p>Corporate bonds: Government bonds accounted for 103.9% of the total in the fourth quarter of 2019, a historical high; household bonds accounted for 75.4% of the total in the fourth quarter of 2019; and non-financial corporate bonds accounted for 74.9% of the total in the fourth quarter of 2019. Baa investment-grade corporate bonds accounted for 48.6% of the total at the end of the second quarter of 2020, a decrease compared to the previous quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/041a2e9deb4a46b72308beb86d76d638\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>Negative-yield debt: As of May 31, 2020, the Japanese government held $5.35 trillion in negative-yield government debt, European governments held $5.49 trillion in negative-yield government debt, and global corporate debt held $1.27 trillion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45315747bbe42ceb007d64ebe88fc74f\" tg-width=\"1072\" tg-height=\"724\"></p><p>Bond market liquidity: In the first quarter of 2020, bond inventories held by major bond underwriters accounted for 0.3% of total U.S. corporate bonds, an increase from the previous quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8049bd9b6540852ee8b1ff0db1559e60\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"719\"></p><p>Global Monetary Policy: It is predicted that bond purchases by major central banks in developed countries will continue to increase significantly in 2021, with the Federal Reserve remaining the largest in terms of bond purchases, a marked increase compared to 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbd569de80d6dc612825fe1e2f8272c8\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"721\"></p><p>Global Fixed Income Markets: As of the end of 2019, U.S. bonds totaled $41 trillion, other developed countries (excluding the U.S.) held $47 trillion, and emerging markets held $26 trillion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25194b438ce9d426e77a832650176ad8\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"722\"></p><p>Comparison of fixed income market returns: From 2005 to 2019, emerging dollar bonds had the highest average yield at 7.3% annualized, but they also had the highest volatility at 10.6%, followed by high-yield bonds, while ABS had the lowest yield.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f45d1ea510a225f5830d7a25abc81049\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"731\"></p><p>Global Stock Markets: Over the past 15 years, the US stock market (represented by the S&P 500) has had the highest average return at 9.0%, followed by emerging markets at 7.8%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5eacb07cc66107de528d334016aa7219\" tg-width=\"1070\" tg-height=\"723\"></p><p>Sources of global stock returns: From 2005 to 2019, the largest contributor to US equity market returns was return growth, followed by dividends, while valuation multiples contributed the least. Currencies in emerging markets and European markets other than the UK contributed negatively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4247d7c94c33c6853bad3f2ebceb960d\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"724\"></p><p>Currency and international equity returns: A stronger US dollar is detrimental to international equity market returns, while a weaker US dollar is beneficial to international equity markets; In 2019, the US dollar had a negative 10.8% impact on the returns of the MSCI Global Excluding the US index.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e6774f10d1bfe39f0e8e33696b27e8f\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"724\"></p><p>U.S. and international equity markets at the inflection point: From 2009 to June 30, 2020, the S&P 500 index returned 401%, followed by an 8% correction, while the ACWI U.S. equity market index returned 143% during the same period, followed by a 19% correction.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7095c48d9d78a4f1c01fe3cc2a4327c7\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"724\"></p><p>International stock earnings and valuations: Earnings of global listed companies all declined in 2020; From a valuation perspective, the US stock market currently has the highest PE ratio at 21.77X.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6454026010a23666f23ab52abc0cddeb\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"719\"></p><p>Global economic growth: In May 2020, the services PMI index was 35.2 and the manufacturing index was 42.4%, both below the expansion/contraction threshold, but both showed a significant rebound month-on-month. Global real GDP growth was -1.7% in the first quarter of 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee3338968fa0ca9e427723452fdc52c3\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>COVID-19: Confirmed cases and deaths worldwide</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6351ccfc46e8d2a4c24f64d30f88470\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"724\"></p><p>Global High-Frequency Economic Activity Index: Developed countries have all rebounded from their lows in March, but are believed to be below 0; Among developing countries, Japan, Taiwan, and Russia recovered relatively quickly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b89f78a253ebbba4020142b5f9ce938d\" tg-width=\"1062\" tg-height=\"723\"></p><p>Services Sector Momentum: In June 2020, the services PMI indices of major developed countries all rebounded, with France reaching 50.3.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/079b0e943a0343cb8abda7840ba8b7c4\" tg-width=\"1060\" tg-height=\"715\"></p><p>Global inflation rate: Inflation rates in most major countries around the world declined in May compared to April.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33b2d843b03e94187b223901aa7d6e5b\" tg-width=\"1061\" tg-height=\"716\"></p><p>Fiscal support for COVID-19: Italy, Germany, and Japan provided the largest amount of fiscal support, with Italy's fiscal expenditure reaching 34% of GDP.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b0d15069c81607e61f0da3726b0b4d8\" tg-width=\"1062\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>China's economic situation: China's economic growth rate in the first quarter of 2020 was -6.8%, of which investment was -1.5%, consumption was -4.4%, and net exports were -1.0%; The fiscal deficit is projected to reach 14% of GDP in 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc9150d30e11c4c4cb9efbcb9e4167db\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"717\"></p><p>Emerging Markets: Emerging market GDP growth is expected to remain positive in 2020, while developed countries are projected to be negative, with the difference widening month-on-month.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c48d84477b90e43ce2063dd7fa24a534\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"723\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0400abd09ad05bbd17dabfa6e3a6d05f\" tg-width=\"1066\" tg-height=\"731\"></p><p>Hedge funds: Macro hedge funds are expected to decline relative to the hedge fund research index in 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97b2d590c388dd2019c33254beede1a5\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"717\"></p><p>Private equity market: Overall, the returns of the private equity market are higher than those of MSCI ACWI Global Secondary Market stocks; In 2019, U.S. private equity funds raised approximately $1.2 trillion but had not yet invested it.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/482a12baff7d422cd3cc683781794138\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"718\"></p><p>Among alternative investment categories, the Alerian MLP ETF offers the highest annualized return of 15.2%, while the US 10-year Treasury Bond yields only 0.7%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/109a4978b330f77f8e99eaa03000af02\" tg-width=\"1070\" tg-height=\"733\"></p><p>Global commodities: On June 30, 2020, gold prices were $1,801 per ounce, relatively consistent with inflation-adjusted prices, showing a significant upward trend.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f7e0e2b411db3ef5c04e690946d7285\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>The global multi-asset portfolio (25% S&P 500 Index, 10% Russell 2000 Index, 15% MSCI EAFE Index, 5% MSCI EME, 25% Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Composite Index, 5% Bloomberg Barclays 1-3 Month Treasury Bond Index, 5% Bloomberg Barclays High Yield Bond Index, 5% Bloomberg Barclays Commodity Index, and 5% NAREIT Equity REIT Index) yielded 19.5% in 2019, with an annualized return of 6.6% from 2005 to 2019.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83a6c12de58ceacf8ffdf02ec2409b96\" tg-width=\"1073\" tg-height=\"735\"></p><p>Fund inflows: Since 2007, a total of $2.611 trillion in mutual funds and ETFs have flowed into the bond market, but this declined in 2020; $1.467 trillion flowed into the stock market, and $602 billion into other major asset classes.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63401695f4ac6d02dc3419af9728b772\" tg-width=\"1072\" tg-height=\"721\"></p><p>Over the past 20 years, the average annualized return of the stock market has been 11.3%, the annualized return of bonds has been 5.9%, and the 50/50 portfolio has yielded 8.9%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f95545786d706ca43310fbd15eae7bbe\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"717\"></p><p>Among alternative asset classes, REITs have the highest annualized return over the past 20 years (1999-2019) at 11.6%, followed by precious metal gold at 8.6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48f6e4a52ed3ed61103cb95a7723d462\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"721\"></p><p>By the end of the second quarter, 37% of Republicans rated the national economy as excellent or good, while only 11% of Democrats rated it as excellent or good.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2d1d00672e5cfbc938b689011459177\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"719\"></p><p>In 2020, a $100,000 savings account could earn $280, but it would require $1,236 to cover the negative returns from inflation, $2,046 to eliminate the negative returns from education inflation, and $4,904 to eliminate the negative returns from healthcare.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/beedd7f7cb4688ee182e03940d83713a\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"725\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/s0qXpukohr12_gV2bRFqag\">杰晶维基</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e2f636e805bfca87903ab08fc842298","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/s0qXpukohr12_gV2bRFqag","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199570467","content_text":"导读:JP Morgan资产管理的Guide to Markets系列报告,是我们必读,并且一定会翻译的文章。在这一份图文并茂的报告中,清楚刻画了全球大类资产和美国股票市场在一个什么样的位置,以及当下市场的主要矛盾。以下是我们对于3季度JP Morgan Guide To Markets的全文翻译,希望给大家带来帮助。\n文章来源 | JPM Guide To The Markets 3Q2020\n2020年第三季度 市场指南\n一、股票市场\n拐点处的S&P 500:S&P 500从2009年3月9日的低点到2020年2月19的高点涨了401%,然后至今(2020年6月30日)跌了8%\n\n2020年6月30日标普500估值为21.72X,过去25年平均估值水平为16.39X\n\nP/E和股票回报率\n\n2020H1标普500指数各个行业收益同比均有所下滑,其中能源市场下滑幅度最大\n\nEPS增长的来源:2020Q1 S&P 500 EPS 年化增速为-48.7%,其中三个贡献因素中利润率年化增长为47.3%,是EPS负增长的主要原因\n\n价值 VS 增长:2020H1价值相对于增长收益率为0.97,价值指数宏有56.1%的个股贝塔大于1\n\n不同风格的收益和估值:就季度来看,小市值高增长的类型收益最好,达到30.6%;按年度来看,大市值高增长的类型表现最好,达到9.8%,中市值高增长次之,为4.2%,其他类型的均为负增长\n\n不同板块的收益和估值:就季度来看,消费行业板块最好,达到32.9%;按年度来看,科技板块表现最好,达到15%,消费板块次之,为7.2%,其他类型的均为负增长\n\n因子表现:2005至2019年间动量因子的收益最好,达到11%,低波动因子次之,为10.2%,小市值因子收益最低,为7.9%,且波动率最大\n\n年化收益以及年内回调\n\n市场波动率\n\n熊市以及随后的牛市的概率\n\n1990年以来的股票市场\n\n二、宏观经济市场\n美国过去经济衰退情况\n\n经济增长以及GDP的构成:2020Q1美国名义GDP中的67.7%是消费,17.9%是政府支出,12.9%是排除房地产外的投资,4.0%是房地产\n\nCOVID-19:美国确诊以及死亡人数\n\n高频经济数据\n\n消费金融:美国消费者资产中27%是房产,21%退休金,负债中66%是房贷\n\n美国经济中的收入不平等\n\n美国经济的长期驱动因素\n\n联邦财政\n\n就业和工资\n\n商业情绪和经济周期\n\n不同教育程度人群的就业和收入\n\n通货膨胀\n\n美元驱动因素\n\n原油市场\n\n联邦政策利率:FOMC 6月纪要显示2020年美国GDP将萎缩6.5%,Q4失业率将达到9.3%,个人消费支出平减指数PCE为0.8%;长期展望美国GDP增速为1.8%,失业率为4.1%,PCEWEI 2.0%\n\n美联储的资产负债表\n\n利率和通货膨胀率\n\n三、固定收益市场动态\n\n收益率曲线\n\n固定收益率及其与股票市场的关系\n\n高收益债券:平均30年高收益债券违约率为3.56%,而截止2020年6月30日的高收益债券违约率为4.85%;\n\n公司债:政府部门的债券是2019第四季度的103.9%,处于历史高位,家庭部门的债券是2019第四季度的75.4%,非金融公司债是2019第四季度的74.9%;Baa投资级公司债券在2020年二季度末占比为48.6%,环比有所下降\n\n负收益债务:截止2020年5月31日,日本政府持有的负收益政府债务为5.35万亿美元,欧洲政府持有的负收益政府债务为5.49万亿美元,全球负收益公司债务为1.27万亿美元\n\n债券市场的流动性:2020年第一季度主要债券承销商债券库存占美国公司债整体的比例为0.3%,环比有所提升\n\n全球货币政策:预测2021年发达国家主要央行债券购买量将继续大幅增加,其中美联储债券购买量仍为最多,较2020年提升明显\n\n全球固定收益市场:截止2019年末,美国债券量为41万亿美元,其他发达国家除美国外债券量为47万亿美元,新兴市场债券量为26万亿美元\n\n固定收益细分市场收益对比:2005-2019年新兴美元债的平均收益率最高,为年化7.3%,但是波动率也最高,为10.6%,高收益债券次之,ABS的收益率最低\n\n全球股票市场:全球市场15年以来美国(以标普500为代表)股票市场平均收益率最高,为9.0%,新兴市场收益率次之,为7.8%\n\n全球股票收益的来源:2005-2019年美国权益市场收益率贡献最大的因素为收益增长,其次为分红,估值倍数贡献最小;新兴市场和欧洲除英国以外的市场中货币为负贡献\n\n货币和国际权益收益:美元走强对国际权益市场回报不利,而美元走弱有利于国际权益市场;2019年对于MSCI全球除美国指数收益来说美元对其影响为负10.8%\n\n拐点处的美国和国际权益市场:2009年至2020年6月30日标普500指数价格收益为401%,随后回调幅度为8%,而ACWI除美国权益市场指数同期收益为143%,随后回调幅度为19%\n\n国际股票收益和估值:2020年全球上市公司收益均有所下滑;估值角度来看目前美国股票市场PE最高,为21.77X\n\n全球经济增长情况:2020年5月服务业PMI指数为35.2,制造业指数为42.4%,均处于荣枯线一下,但是环比都有明显回升;2020年第一季度全球实际GDP增速为-1.7%\n\nCOVID-19:全球确诊病例和死亡人数\n\n全球经济高频活动指数:发达国家从3月低的底部均有所回升,但是认为在0以下;发展中国家中日本、中国台湾和俄罗斯恢复较快\n\n服务业动量:2020年6月主要发达国家服务业PMI指数均有所回升,其中法国达到50.3\n\n全球通货膨胀率:全球主流大部分国家通货膨胀率5月相较于4月均有所下滑\n\n新冠肺炎的财政支持力度:意大利、德国、日本面对新冠肺炎财政支持力度最大,其中意大利财政支出达到GDP的34%\n\n中国经济情况:中国2020年第一季度经济增速为-6.8%,其中投资为-1.5%,消费为-4.4%,净出口为-1.0%;2020年预计财政赤字占GDP达14%\n\n新兴市场:2020年预期新兴市场GDP的经济增速仍为正,但发达国家预计为负,两者之差环比有所提升\n\n对冲基金:预计2020年宏观对冲基金相对于对冲基金研究指数表现将会回落\n\n私募股权市场:整体来看私募股权市场收益率均高于MSCI ACWI全球二级市场股票收益;2019年美国私募股权基金完成募集但还未投出的资金在1.2万亿美元左右\n\n另类投资类别中Alerian MLP ETF年化收益最高为15.2%,而美国10年期国债收益仅为0.7%\n\n全球大宗商品:2020年6月30日金价为1801美元一盎司,与调整通货膨胀率的价格较为一致,趋势上看上升较为明显\n\n全球多种类资产配置组合(25%标普500指数, 10% 罗素2000指数, 15% MSCI EAFE指数, 5% MSCI EME, 25%彭博巴克莱美国综合指数, 5%彭博巴克莱1-3月期限国债指数, 5%彭博巴克莱高收益债券指数, 5%彭博巴克莱商品指数以及5% NAREIT Equity REIT 指数)2019年收益率为19.5%,2005-2019年化收益率为6.6%\n\n基金流入情况:从2007年累计共同基金和ETF有26110亿美元流入债券市场,2020年有所下滑;有14670亿美元流入股票市场,6020亿美元流入其他大类资产\n\n过去20年股票市场年化平均收益为11.3%,债券年化收益率为5.9%,50/50组合收益为8.9%\n\n另类资产类别中过去20年(1999-2019) REITs的年化收益率最高,为11.6%,贵金属金次之,为8.6%\n\n截止第二季度末,有37%的共和党中将国民经济状况评为优秀或良好,只有11%的民主党人将国民经济状况评为优秀或良好\n\n2020年10万美元存款账户能够获得280美元的收益,但是需要1236美元去支付通货膨胀带来的负收益,2046美元去消除教育通胀的负收益,4904美元去消除医疗保障的负收益","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2441,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":307005387,"gmtCreate":1605309288449,"gmtModify":1704960262321,"author":{"id":"3550011845027848","authorId":"3550011845027848","name":"RonZ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d52cf55a7d61ed5ca3332f8ea3c3938","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550011845027848","idStr":"3550011845027848"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Research Ref.","listText":"Research Ref.","text":"Research Ref.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/307005387","repostId":"304175556","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":304175556,"gmtCreate":1605187738675,"gmtModify":1704959477241,"author":{"id":"3458738367709590","authorId":"3458738367709590","name":"秋木林","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1be4cdfffc5173c5dafa9697b7678151","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3458738367709590","idStr":"3458738367709590"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":" 1.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">$網易(NTES)$</a>財報看好,網易短期看到103附近,長期看到1000億市值(還有61%漲幅) 2.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">$京東(JD)$</a>財報看好,沒趕上<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a>的,可以考慮進京東,短期利潤10%-20%。 3.長線佈局單: yalla,gold,一線國民銀行,網易,紐曼礦業,虎牙,聲網,阿里,騰訊等。 4.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽車(LI)$</a>財報看好,預計財報會爆,超乎想象,短線看32附近。長線看到40美元上方(還有52%漲幅)<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鵬汽車(XPEV)$</a>還可以拿到43左右。 5.騰訊音樂,虎牙鬥魚財報都利好,低多不用擔心。海外公司: 大麻基本面好的apha,cgc(漲幅慢,但也抗跌)瘋狗的acb,tlry,sndl,等,但注意風險,利潤100%就要走不能貪了思路依舊是低多財報利好的科技公司: etsy,PayPal,fb,谷歌,寶潔,高通,w,拉姆研究,pins,snap,愛立信,fvrr,shop,chwy,se,京東,tdd,sq,twlo,lulu,fb,adbe,amd,tsla等等。類似暴雷的公司,千萬別做多。適當情況下還可做空保護:類似跟誰學,好未來,蘋果,還有蘋果未來跑不過其他四大,甚至跑不過納指ETF。","listText":" 1.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">$網易(NTES)$</a>財報看好,網易短期看到103附近,長期看到1000億市值(還有61%漲幅) 2.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">$京東(JD)$</a>財報看好,沒趕上<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a>的,可以考慮進京東,短期利潤10%-20%。 3.長線佈局單: yalla,gold,一線國民銀行,網易,紐曼礦業,虎牙,聲網,阿里,騰訊等。 4.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽車(LI)$</a>財報看好,預計財報會爆,超乎想象,短線看32附近。長線看到40美元上方(還有52%漲幅)<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鵬汽車(XPEV)$</a>還可以拿到43左右。 5.騰訊音樂,虎牙鬥魚財報都利好,低多不用擔心。海外公司: 大麻基本面好的apha,cgc(漲幅慢,但也抗跌)瘋狗的acb,tlry,sndl,等,但注意風險,利潤100%就要走不能貪了思路依舊是低多財報利好的科技公司: etsy,PayPal,fb,谷歌,寶潔,高通,w,拉姆研究,pins,snap,愛立信,fvrr,shop,chwy,se,京東,tdd,sq,twlo,lulu,fb,adbe,amd,tsla等等。類似暴雷的公司,千萬別做多。適當情況下還可做空保護:類似跟誰學,好未來,蘋果,還有蘋果未來跑不過其他四大,甚至跑不過納指ETF。","text":"1.$網易(NTES)$財報看好,網易短期看到103附近,長期看到1000億市值(還有61%漲幅) 2.$京東(JD)$財報看好,沒趕上$拼多多(PDD)$的,可以考慮進京東,短期利潤10%-20%。 3.長線佈局單: yalla,gold,一線國民銀行,網易,紐曼礦業,虎牙,聲網,阿里,騰訊等。 4.$理想汽車(LI)$財報看好,預計財報會爆,超乎想象,短線看32附近。長線看到40美元上方(還有52%漲幅)$小鵬汽車(XPEV)$還可以拿到43左右。 5.騰訊音樂,虎牙鬥魚財報都利好,低多不用擔心。海外公司: 大麻基本面好的apha,cgc(漲幅慢,但也抗跌)瘋狗的acb,tlry,sndl,等,但注意風險,利潤100%就要走不能貪了思路依舊是低多財報利好的科技公司: etsy,PayPal,fb,谷歌,寶潔,高通,w,拉姆研究,pins,snap,愛立信,fvrr,shop,chwy,se,京東,tdd,sq,twlo,lulu,fb,adbe,amd,tsla等等。類似暴雷的公司,千萬別做多。適當情況下還可做空保護:類似跟誰學,好未來,蘋果,還有蘋果未來跑不過其他四大,甚至跑不過納指ETF。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/304175556","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3684,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3527667803686145","idStr":"3527667803686145"},"content":"Finally, when you first post [compare heart] [compare heart] post, you can get more exposure by related stocks or related topics. If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation","text":"Finally, when you first post [compare heart] [compare heart] post, you can get more exposure by related stocks or related topics. If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation","html":"Finally, when you first post [compare heart] [compare heart] post, you can get more exposure by related stocks or related topics. If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":true}