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- 豪哥哥1豪哥哥1
  ·2023-06-05
  $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$
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- 豪哥哥1豪哥哥1
  ·2023-06-05
  $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$
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- 豪哥哥1豪哥哥1
  ·2021-03-12
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  With $1.9 trillion coming, can "throwing money" still drive the stock market up?
  编者按：当地时间3月11日，美国总统拜登在白宫签署了1.9万亿美元新一轮新冠纾困法案，向符合条件的美国人每人发放1400美元救助金。拜登说，“这项历史性的立法是重建美国的重要一环，给美国的劳动人民、中
  With $1.9 trillion coming, can "throwing money" still drive the stock market up?
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Inc.(PLTR)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/183941042024504","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2847,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":328226244,"gmtCreate":1615532723088,"gmtModify":1704784186311,"author":{"id":"3550959114155606","authorId":"3550959114155606","name":"豪哥哥1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/590d1c78a97452f619d85eddb67ec154","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3550959114155606","authorIdStr":"3550959114155606"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"bbb","listText":"bbb","text":"bbb","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/328226244","repostId":"1198756345","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198756345","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国最具影响力的财经新闻媒体《财经》携手道琼斯媒体集团，引入百年历史的《巴伦》（Barron's）独家内容，打造涵盖全球金融信息、市场动态、行业分析、公司研究及理财顾问评估的全球投资平台。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Barrons巴伦","id":"1063202233","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd0fd02e1b0644cdbe57505e702dacab"},"pubTimestamp":1615524722,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1198756345?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-12 12:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"With $1.9 trillion coming, can \"throwing money\" still drive the stock market up?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198756345","media":"Barrons巴伦","summary":"编者按：当地时间3月11日，美国总统拜登在白宫签署了1.9万亿美元新一轮新冠纾困法案，向符合条件的美国人每人发放1400美元救助金。拜登说，“这项历史性的立法是重建美国的重要一环，给美国的劳动人民、中","content":"<p>Editor's note: On March 11th, local time, U.S. President Joe Biden signed a new round of COVID-19 relief bills of $1.9 trillion at the White House, distributing $1,400 in relief money to eligible Americans each. Biden said, \"This historic legislation is an important part of rebuilding America, giving the working people of America, the middle class, and the people who build this country a chance to fight.\" After studying the relevant data, Barron's found that the U.S. government's previous \"big money\" did increase Americans' savings, but due to uneven distribution, it did not give much boost to overall consumer spending in the United States. A new round of economic stimulus measures may not contribute much to the next economic recovery.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb72ffe67d1dbbc2f4e9ae6c6bbe4c7b\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>During the COVID pandemic, the U.S. government handed out checks as subsidies to Americans quarantining at home. As consumers spend less on services, coupled with the $1.2 trillion in previous government economic subsidies,<b>As of January, Americans saved about $1.8 trillion more than they did without the pandemic</b>。</p><p><b>Americans are saving $1.8 trillion more than they were when the pandemic didn't happen</b></p><p>Black line: Amount of personal real savings in the United States; Green line: amount of savings in the absence of the pandemic</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c7c5bad58ceb2835687cc039d56e93c\" tg-width=\"957\" tg-height=\"355\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Barron's Calculations</p><p>At the same time, stock and property prices have risen sharply. The net effect of these phenomena is,<b>The total net worth of U.S. households is up about $14 trillion from end-2019 levels</b>。</p><p>Some economists had worried that too much cash would spur a surge in demand for scarce goods and services once widespread vaccination pushed social life back to pre-pandemic normalcy, which in turn led to an overheating economy. But that may not happen, and a closer look at where this cash actually goes reveals that these excess savings may only give a degree of boost to the short-lived post-pandemic spending boom, without causing steep price increases.</p><p>There are two main reasons for this conclusion.<b>First, money held in bank accounts is more likely to be spent compared to book gains on illiquid assets such as homes and real estate; Second, the highest earners are less likely to spend a one-time windfall than the lower earners</b>。</p><p>The most detailed data now comes from the Federal Reserve's \"Distributed Financial Accounts,\" which tracks the assets and liabilities of American households at different income levels over time. From the end of 2019 to the end of the third quarter of 2020, the total net worth of U.S. households increased by $5.2 trillion, of which $2.3 trillion came from bank deposits, money market fund stock investments and other liquid assets (such as cash accounts opened at brokerages), which can be spent right away. About $1.2 trillion of the net worth of American households comes from rising stock prices, while increased home equity contributes $1 trillion to the net worth of American households. What Americans spend on cars, furniture, electronics, household appliances and other durable goods contributes about $300 billion to household net worth.</p><p>The Fed last released the data in September 2020, but U.S. stocks have gained about 20% since then, adding about another $7 trillion to total household net worth. Home prices have also increased by about 5% and owner home equity has increased by about $1 trillion. Total deposits in the banking system grew by nearly $700 billion, although some of that was extra liquidity for businesses rather than consumers. Credit card debt has been reduced by more than $100 billion.</p><p><b>Americans have cut their credit card debt by more than $100 billion since 2020</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04546a0b5489f0e3444f78f1b760b0bf\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Federal Reserve, Barron's Calculations</p><p>So, who has more cash in their hands to spend? The Fed said,<b>About 28% of liquid assets that increased from the end of 2019 to the end of September 2020 went to the top 1% of Americans, 70% to the top quintile of Americans, and only 14% ($330 billion of $2.3 trillion) went to the bottom 60% of Americans</b>。</p><p>Since the Federal Reserve compiled this data, the distribution of liquid assets may have become more distorted, and the vast majority of Americans may have less cash idle in their hands. After the government removed income subsidies last summer, many Americans had to tap into savings accumulated earlier last year to keep spending going.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Economists at the institute found that the lowest quarter, the most representative of Americans, has spent nearly a third of the money in their checking accounts since last September. Actually,<b>By the end of last year, most Americans with the exception of the top earners had less money in their checking accounts than they had in the third quarter</b>。</p><p>Ownership of stocks is extremely concentrated, so most of the proceeds go to people who already have enough cash to meet consumer demand. While the gains from rising home prices are more evenly distributed, they are also unlikely to contribute to a sharp rise in consumer spending. Economists have found after studying historical data that consumers tend to spend 5% of their home equity gains on consumption, but that \"wealth effect\" was near zero in the years leading up to the pandemic, in part because of more stringent mortgage standards after the financial crisis.</p><p>For low-and middle-income Americans, the fastest-growing wealth category is durable goods, but that only reflects their contribution to the consumption recovery, not because their finances have improved enough to support future spending.</p><p><b>The proportion of different income brackets contributing to the growth of household net worth in the United States, by income level</b></p><p><b>(2019Q4-2020Q3)</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37e23c1570b7eff37e125787024c5dd9\" tg-width=\"769\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Federal Reserve, Barron's Calculations</p><p>Therefore,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Joseph Briggs and David Mericle estimate that even if the total amount of \"excess savings\" grows by 50 percent between now and mid-2021, with the help of a new round of government economic support,<b>Only about 18% of the money goes to goods and services after a full reboot, and the rest may be used by higher-income earners to invest in stocks or housing, as well as by low-and middle-income Americans to build up the cash reserves they need</b>。</p><p>So while the new $1.9 trillion stimulus package gives most Americans $1,400 checks,<b>Combined, the unused cash that Americans receive may only contribute about 2 percentage points to GDP growth in 2021, which, while helping the economic recovery, will do very little</b>。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWith $1.9 trillion coming, can \"throwing money\" still drive the stock market up?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1063202233\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd0fd02e1b0644cdbe57505e702dacab);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Barrons巴伦 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-12 12:52</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Editor's note: On March 11th, local time, U.S. President Joe Biden signed a new round of COVID-19 relief bills of $1.9 trillion at the White House, distributing $1,400 in relief money to eligible Americans each. Biden said, \"This historic legislation is an important part of rebuilding America, giving the working people of America, the middle class, and the people who build this country a chance to fight.\" After studying the relevant data, Barron's found that the U.S. government's previous \"big money\" did increase Americans' savings, but due to uneven distribution, it did not give much boost to overall consumer spending in the United States. A new round of economic stimulus measures may not contribute much to the next economic recovery.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb72ffe67d1dbbc2f4e9ae6c6bbe4c7b\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>During the COVID pandemic, the U.S. government handed out checks as subsidies to Americans quarantining at home. As consumers spend less on services, coupled with the $1.2 trillion in previous government economic subsidies,<b>As of January, Americans saved about $1.8 trillion more than they did without the pandemic</b>。</p><p><b>Americans are saving $1.8 trillion more than they were when the pandemic didn't happen</b></p><p>Black line: Amount of personal real savings in the United States; Green line: amount of savings in the absence of the pandemic</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c7c5bad58ceb2835687cc039d56e93c\" tg-width=\"957\" tg-height=\"355\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Barron's Calculations</p><p>At the same time, stock and property prices have risen sharply. The net effect of these phenomena is,<b>The total net worth of U.S. households is up about $14 trillion from end-2019 levels</b>。</p><p>Some economists had worried that too much cash would spur a surge in demand for scarce goods and services once widespread vaccination pushed social life back to pre-pandemic normalcy, which in turn led to an overheating economy. But that may not happen, and a closer look at where this cash actually goes reveals that these excess savings may only give a degree of boost to the short-lived post-pandemic spending boom, without causing steep price increases.</p><p>There are two main reasons for this conclusion.<b>First, money held in bank accounts is more likely to be spent compared to book gains on illiquid assets such as homes and real estate; Second, the highest earners are less likely to spend a one-time windfall than the lower earners</b>。</p><p>The most detailed data now comes from the Federal Reserve's \"Distributed Financial Accounts,\" which tracks the assets and liabilities of American households at different income levels over time. From the end of 2019 to the end of the third quarter of 2020, the total net worth of U.S. households increased by $5.2 trillion, of which $2.3 trillion came from bank deposits, money market fund stock investments and other liquid assets (such as cash accounts opened at brokerages), which can be spent right away. About $1.2 trillion of the net worth of American households comes from rising stock prices, while increased home equity contributes $1 trillion to the net worth of American households. What Americans spend on cars, furniture, electronics, household appliances and other durable goods contributes about $300 billion to household net worth.</p><p>The Fed last released the data in September 2020, but U.S. stocks have gained about 20% since then, adding about another $7 trillion to total household net worth. Home prices have also increased by about 5% and owner home equity has increased by about $1 trillion. Total deposits in the banking system grew by nearly $700 billion, although some of that was extra liquidity for businesses rather than consumers. Credit card debt has been reduced by more than $100 billion.</p><p><b>Americans have cut their credit card debt by more than $100 billion since 2020</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04546a0b5489f0e3444f78f1b760b0bf\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Federal Reserve, Barron's Calculations</p><p>So, who has more cash in their hands to spend? The Fed said,<b>About 28% of liquid assets that increased from the end of 2019 to the end of September 2020 went to the top 1% of Americans, 70% to the top quintile of Americans, and only 14% ($330 billion of $2.3 trillion) went to the bottom 60% of Americans</b>。</p><p>Since the Federal Reserve compiled this data, the distribution of liquid assets may have become more distorted, and the vast majority of Americans may have less cash idle in their hands. After the government removed income subsidies last summer, many Americans had to tap into savings accumulated earlier last year to keep spending going.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Economists at the institute found that the lowest quarter, the most representative of Americans, has spent nearly a third of the money in their checking accounts since last September. Actually,<b>By the end of last year, most Americans with the exception of the top earners had less money in their checking accounts than they had in the third quarter</b>。</p><p>Ownership of stocks is extremely concentrated, so most of the proceeds go to people who already have enough cash to meet consumer demand. While the gains from rising home prices are more evenly distributed, they are also unlikely to contribute to a sharp rise in consumer spending. Economists have found after studying historical data that consumers tend to spend 5% of their home equity gains on consumption, but that \"wealth effect\" was near zero in the years leading up to the pandemic, in part because of more stringent mortgage standards after the financial crisis.</p><p>For low-and middle-income Americans, the fastest-growing wealth category is durable goods, but that only reflects their contribution to the consumption recovery, not because their finances have improved enough to support future spending.</p><p><b>The proportion of different income brackets contributing to the growth of household net worth in the United States, by income level</b></p><p><b>(2019Q4-2020Q3)</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37e23c1570b7eff37e125787024c5dd9\" tg-width=\"769\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Federal Reserve, Barron's Calculations</p><p>Therefore,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Joseph Briggs and David Mericle estimate that even if the total amount of \"excess savings\" grows by 50 percent between now and mid-2021, with the help of a new round of government economic support,<b>Only about 18% of the money goes to goods and services after a full reboot, and the rest may be used by higher-income earners to invest in stocks or housing, as well as by low-and middle-income Americans to build up the cash reserves they need</b>。</p><p>So while the new $1.9 trillion stimulus package gives most Americans $1,400 checks,<b>Combined, the unused cash that Americans receive may only contribute about 2 percentage points to GDP growth in 2021, which, while helping the economic recovery, will do very little</b>。</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ce367bd8c2034e36349cedee2358dfb","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198756345","content_text":"编者按：当地时间3月11日，美国总统拜登在白宫签署了1.9万亿美元新一轮新冠纾困法案，向符合条件的美国人每人发放1400美元救助金。拜登说，“这项历史性的立法是重建美国的重要一环，给美国的劳动人民、中产阶级以及建设这个国家的人们一个奋斗的机会。”《巴伦周刊》对相关数据进行研究后发现，美国政府之前“大撒钱”的确增加了美国人的存款，但由于分配不均，并没有给美国的整体消费者支出带来太大提振。新一轮经济刺激措施再次撒钱可能也无法给接下来的经济复苏贡献多少力量。新冠疫情期间，美国政府向居家隔离的美国人发放了支票作为补贴。由于消费者在服务上的支出减少，再加上政府之前发放的1.2万亿美元经济补贴，截至今年1月，美国人的储蓄额比在没有疫情的情况下，增加了1.8万亿美元左右。美国人的储蓄额比疫情没有发生时多了1.8万亿美元黑色线：美国个人实际储蓄额；绿色线：疫情未发生情况下的储蓄额数据来源：美国经济分析局，巴伦计算与此同时，股票和房产价价格大幅上升。这些现象带来的净效应是，美国家庭的总净资产比2019年底水平增加了约14万亿美元。一些经济学家曾担心，一旦疫苗广泛接种推动社会生活回到疫情前的正常状态，过多现金会刺激稀缺商品和服务需求激增，进而导致经济过热。但这种情况可能不会出现，仔细观察这些现金的实际去向就会发现，这些多出来的储蓄可能只能给疫情后的短暂消费热潮带来一定程度的推动，而不会导致价格持续大幅上涨。得出这一结论主要有两个原因。首先，与住宅和不动产等非流动性资产的账面收益相比，存在银行账户里的钱更有可能被花掉；其次，与收入较低的人相比，收入最高的人不太可能花掉一次性获得的意外之财。目前最详细的数据来自美联储发布的“可分配金融账户”(Distributal Financial Accounts)的数据，该数据跟踪的是一段时间内不同收入水平美国家庭的资产负债情况。从2019年底到2020年第三季度末，美国家庭净资产总额增加了5.2万亿美元，其中2.3万亿美元来自银行存款、货币市场基金股票投资和其他流动资产（如在券商开设的现金账户），这部分钱是可以马上花掉的。美国家庭净资产中约1.2万亿美元来自股票价格的上涨，与此同时，房屋净值增加为美国家庭的净资产贡献了了1万亿美元。美国人在汽车、家具、电子产品、家用电器和其他耐用品上的支出为家庭净资产贡献约3000亿美元。美联储最近一次公布该数据是在2020年9月，但在那之后美国股市上涨了约20％，家庭净资产总额又增加了约7万亿美元。房价也上涨了约5％，业主房屋净值增加了约1万亿美元。银行系统中的存款总额增长了近7000亿美元，尽管其中一些是企业获得的额外流动性而非消费者。信用卡债务已减少了1000亿美元以上。2020年以来，美国人信用卡债务削减了1000亿美元以上数据来源：美联储，巴伦计算那么，谁手中有更多现金可以花呢？美联储称，从2019年底到2020年9月底增加的流动资产中，约28%流向了收入最高的1%的美国人，70%流向了收入最高的五分之一的美国人，只有14%（2.3万亿美元中的3300亿美元）流向了收入最低的60%的美国人。自美联储编制这一数据以来，流动资产的分布可能变得更加扭曲，绝大多数美国人手中的闲置现金可能更少了。去年夏季政府取消收入补贴后，许多美国人不得不动用去年早些时候积累的储蓄来维持支出。摩根大通研究院的经济学家发现，自去年9月以来，收入最低的四分之一、最具代表性的美国人已经花掉了支票帐户中近三分之一的钱。实际上，到去年年底，除了收入最高的那部分人，大多数美国人支票帐户上的资金都少于第三季度。股票的所有权极其集中，所以大部分收益都流向了那些已经拥有足够现金来满足消费需求的人。虽然房价上涨带来的收益分配得更为平均，但也不太可能促进消费者支出大幅上升。经济学家在研究历史数据后发现，消费者往往将房屋净值收益的5%用于消费，但在疫情暴发前的几年里，这种“财富效应”接近于零，在一定程度是因为金融危机后抵押贷款标准更加严格。对于中低收入美国人来说，增长最快的财富类别是耐用品，但这只反映了他们对消费复苏的贡献，而不是因为他们的财务状况有了改善、足以支持未来的支出。按照收入水平来看，不同收入阶层对美国家庭资产净值增长的贡献比例（2019Q4-2020Q3）数据来源：美联储，巴伦计算因此，高盛的约瑟夫·布里格斯(Joseph Briggs)和戴维·梅里克(David Mericle)估计，在政府新一轮经济支持的帮助下，就算从现在到2021年中“超额储蓄”的总量还能增长50%，但只有大约18％的钱在经济全面重启后会用于购买商品和服务，其余的钱可能会被高收入者用来投资股票或住房，以及被中低收入美国人用于建立他们所需的现金储备。因此，虽然新一轮1.9万亿美元经济刺激计划向大多数美国人发放1400美元支票，但美国人获得的闲置现金加起来可能只会为2021年的GDP增长贡献大约2个百分点，虽说能给经济复苏带来帮助，但作用非常有限。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3134,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}