Profile - To The Moon

豪哥哥1

Posts · 13Posts · 13
Following · 0Following · 0
Followers · 0Followers · 0

- 豪哥哥1豪哥哥1
  ·2023-06-05
  $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$
  3.57K Comment
  Like
  Share
  Report
- 豪哥哥1豪哥哥1
  ·2023-06-05
  $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$
  4.14K Comment
  Like
  Share
  Report
- 豪哥哥1豪哥哥1
  ·2021-03-12
  bbb
  With $1.9 trillion coming, can "throwing money" still drive the stock market up?
  编者按：当地时间3月11日，美国总统拜登在白宫签署了1.9万亿美元新一轮新冠纾困法案，向符合条件的美国人每人发放1400美元救助金。拜登说，“这项历史性的立法是重建美国的重要一环，给美国的劳动人民、中
  With $1.9 trillion coming, can "throwing money" still drive the stock market up?
  5.50K 1
  Like
  Share
  Report
No followers yet

Most Discussed

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isCurrentUser":false,"userPageInfo":{"id":"3550959114155606","uuid":"3550959114155606","gmtCreate":1587865101099,"gmtModify":1606709460545,"name":"豪哥哥1","pinyin":"hgg1haogege1","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/590d1c78a97452f619d85eddb67ec154","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":4,"headSize":40,"tweetSize":13,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":2,"level":{"id":2,"name":"无畏虎","nameTw":"無畏虎","represent":"初生牛犊","factor":"发布3条非转发主帖,1条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-4","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Tiger Star","description":"Join the tiger community for 2000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6304700d92ad91c7a33e2e92ec32ecc1","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.04.23","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0}],"userBadgeCount":1,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"page":1,"watchlist":null,"tweetList":[{"id":183941394911384,"gmtCreate":1685927226928,"gmtModify":1685949976582,"author":{"id":"3550959114155606","authorId":"3550959114155606","name":"豪哥哥1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/590d1c78a97452f619d85eddb67ec154","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550959114155606","idStr":"3550959114155606"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;</a>","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/183941394911384","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3571,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":183941042024504,"gmtCreate":1685927217383,"gmtModify":1685949972313,"author":{"id":"3550959114155606","authorId":"3550959114155606","name":"豪哥哥1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/590d1c78a97452f619d85eddb67ec154","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550959114155606","idStr":"3550959114155606"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/183941042024504","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4136,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":328226244,"gmtCreate":1615532723088,"gmtModify":1704784186311,"author":{"id":"3550959114155606","authorId":"3550959114155606","name":"豪哥哥1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/590d1c78a97452f619d85eddb67ec154","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550959114155606","idStr":"3550959114155606"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"bbb","listText":"bbb","text":"bbb","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/328226244","repostId":"1198756345","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198756345","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国最具影响力的财经新闻媒体《财经》携手道琼斯媒体集团，引入百年历史的《巴伦》（Barron's）独家内容，打造涵盖全球金融信息、市场动态、行业分析、公司研究及理财顾问评估的全球投资平台。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Barrons巴伦","id":"1063202233","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd0fd02e1b0644cdbe57505e702dacab"},"pubTimestamp":1615524722,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1198756345?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-12 12:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"With $1.9 trillion coming, can \"throwing money\" still drive the stock market up?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198756345","media":"Barrons巴伦","summary":"编者按：当地时间3月11日，美国总统拜登在白宫签署了1.9万亿美元新一轮新冠纾困法案，向符合条件的美国人每人发放1400美元救助金。拜登说，“这项历史性的立法是重建美国的重要一环，给美国的劳动人民、中","content":"<p>Editor's Note: On March 11 local time, US President Biden signed a new round of $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief bill at the White House, distributing $1,400 in aid to each eligible American. Biden said, \"This historic legislation is an important part of rebuilding America, giving America's working people, the middle class, and the people who built this country a chance to fight.\" Barron's analysis of relevant data found that while the U.S. government's previous \"spending spree\" did increase Americans' savings, due to uneven distribution, it did not significantly boost overall consumer spending in the United States. A new round of economic stimulus measures, splashing money again, may not contribute much to the upcoming economic recovery.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb72ffe67d1dbbc2f4e9ae6c6bbe4c7b\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>During the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. government issued checks as subsidies to Americans in home quarantine. Due to reduced consumer spending on services, coupled with the $1.2 trillion in economic subsidies previously issued by the government,<b>As of January this year, Americans' savings had increased by approximately $1.8 trillion compared to what they would have had without the pandemic.</b>。</p><p><b>Americans have $1.8 trillion more savings than before the pandemic</b></p><p>Black line: Actual personal savings in the United States; Green line: Savings without the pandemic</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c7c5bad58ceb2835687cc039d56e93c\" tg-width=\"957\" tg-height=\"355\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Barron's Calculations</p><p>At the same time, stock and property prices rose sharply. The net effect of these phenomena is that,<b>The total net worth of U.S. households has increased by approximately $14 trillion compared to the end of 2019.</b>。</p><p>Some economists have worried that once widespread vaccination pushes social life back to pre-pandemic normal, too much cash will stimulate a surge in demand for scarce goods and services, which in turn will lead to an overheated economy. However, this situation may not occur. A closer look at the actual destination of this cash reveals that this extra savings may only provide a certain boost to the short-term post-pandemic consumption boom, rather than leading to a sustained and significant rise in prices.</p><p>There are two main reasons for drawing this conclusion.<b>First, money in bank accounts is more likely to be spent than the book gains on illiquid assets such as housing and real estate. Secondly, those with the highest incomes are less likely to spend their one-time windfall compared to those with lower incomes.</b>。</p><p>The most detailed data currently available comes from the Federal Reserve's \"Distributable Financial Accounts,\" which track the balance sheets of American households at different income levels over a period of time. From the end of 2019 to the end of the third quarter of 2020, the total net worth of American households increased by $5.2 trillion, of which $2.3 trillion came from bank deposits, money market fund stock investments, and other liquid assets (such as cash accounts opened at brokerages), which can be spent immediately. Approximately $1.2 trillion of U.S. household net worth came from rising stock prices, while increased home equity contributed $1 trillion to U.S. household net worth. Americans' spending on cars, furniture, electronics, home appliances, and other durable goods contributes approximately $300 billion to household net worth.</p><p>The Federal Reserve last released this data in September 2020, but since then the U.S. stock market has risen by about 20%, and total household net worth has increased by about $7 trillion. Home prices also rose by about 5%, and homeowners' net worth increased by about $1 trillion. Total deposits in the banking system increased by nearly $700 billion, although some of this was additional liquidity obtained by businesses rather than consumers. Credit card debt has been reduced by more than $100 billion.</p><p><b>Americans have cut more than $100 billion in credit card debt since 2020</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04546a0b5489f0e3444f78f1b760b0bf\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Federal Reserve, Barron's Calculations</p><p>So, who has more cash to spend? The Federal Reserve stated that<b>Of the increased liquid assets from the end of 2019 to the end of September 2020, approximately 28% went to the top 1% of Americans, 70% to the top fifth of Americans, and only 14% ($330 billion out of $2.3 trillion) to the bottom 60% of Americans.</b>。</p><p>Since the Federal Reserve compiled this data, the distribution of liquid assets may have become more distorted, and the vast majority of Americans may have less idle cash on hand. After the government eliminated income subsidies last summer, many Americans had to use the savings they had accumulated earlier last year to maintain their spending.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Economists at the institute found that since last September, the lowest-income quarter, the most representative group of Americans, has spent nearly a third of their checking accounts. In fact,<b>By the end of last year, most Americans, except for the highest earners, had less money in their checking accounts than in the third quarter.</b>。</p><p>Stock ownership is extremely concentrated, so most of the profits go to those who already have enough cash to meet their consumption needs. Although the benefits of rising housing prices are distributed more evenly, they are unlikely to prompt a significant increase in consumer spending. Economists have found after studying historical data that consumers tend to spend 5% of their home equity gains on consumption, but in the years before the pandemic, this \"wealth effect\" was close to zero, partly because mortgage standards became stricter after the financial crisis.</p><p>For low- and middle-income Americans, the fastest-growing wealth category is durable goods, but this only reflects their contribution to the consumption recovery, not because their financial situation has improved enough to support future spending.</p><p><b>By income level, the proportion of different income groups contributing to the growth of U.S. household net worth</b></p><p><b>(2019Q4-2020Q3)</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37e23c1570b7eff37e125787024c5dd9\" tg-width=\"769\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Federal Reserve, Barron's Calculations</p><p>Therefore,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Joseph Briggs and David Mericle estimate that even if the total amount of \"excess savings\" could grow by 50% between now and mid-2021 with the help of a new round of government economic support,<b>Only about 18% of the money will be used to buy goods and services after the economy fully reopens; the rest will likely be used by high-income earners to invest in stocks or housing, and by low- and middle-income Americans to build the cash reserves they need.</b>。</p><p>Therefore, although the new $1.9 trillion economic stimulus package issued $1,400 checks to most Americans,<b>The spare cash Americans receive will likely only contribute about 2 percentage points to GDP growth in 2021, and while it will help the economic recovery, its impact will be very limited.</b>。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>With $1.9 trillion coming, can \"throwing money\" still drive the stock market up?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWith $1.9 trillion coming, can \"throwing money\" still drive the stock market up?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1063202233\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd0fd02e1b0644cdbe57505e702dacab);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Barrons巴伦 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-12 12:52</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Editor's Note: On March 11 local time, US President Biden signed a new round of $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief bill at the White House, distributing $1,400 in aid to each eligible American. Biden said, \"This historic legislation is an important part of rebuilding America, giving America's working people, the middle class, and the people who built this country a chance to fight.\" Barron's analysis of relevant data found that while the U.S. government's previous \"spending spree\" did increase Americans' savings, due to uneven distribution, it did not significantly boost overall consumer spending in the United States. A new round of economic stimulus measures, splashing money again, may not contribute much to the upcoming economic recovery.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb72ffe67d1dbbc2f4e9ae6c6bbe4c7b\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>During the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. government issued checks as subsidies to Americans in home quarantine. Due to reduced consumer spending on services, coupled with the $1.2 trillion in economic subsidies previously issued by the government,<b>As of January this year, Americans' savings had increased by approximately $1.8 trillion compared to what they would have had without the pandemic.</b>。</p><p><b>Americans have $1.8 trillion more savings than before the pandemic</b></p><p>Black line: Actual personal savings in the United States; Green line: Savings without the pandemic</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c7c5bad58ceb2835687cc039d56e93c\" tg-width=\"957\" tg-height=\"355\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Barron's Calculations</p><p>At the same time, stock and property prices rose sharply. The net effect of these phenomena is that,<b>The total net worth of U.S. households has increased by approximately $14 trillion compared to the end of 2019.</b>。</p><p>Some economists have worried that once widespread vaccination pushes social life back to pre-pandemic normal, too much cash will stimulate a surge in demand for scarce goods and services, which in turn will lead to an overheated economy. However, this situation may not occur. A closer look at the actual destination of this cash reveals that this extra savings may only provide a certain boost to the short-term post-pandemic consumption boom, rather than leading to a sustained and significant rise in prices.</p><p>There are two main reasons for drawing this conclusion.<b>First, money in bank accounts is more likely to be spent than the book gains on illiquid assets such as housing and real estate. Secondly, those with the highest incomes are less likely to spend their one-time windfall compared to those with lower incomes.</b>。</p><p>The most detailed data currently available comes from the Federal Reserve's \"Distributable Financial Accounts,\" which track the balance sheets of American households at different income levels over a period of time. From the end of 2019 to the end of the third quarter of 2020, the total net worth of American households increased by $5.2 trillion, of which $2.3 trillion came from bank deposits, money market fund stock investments, and other liquid assets (such as cash accounts opened at brokerages), which can be spent immediately. Approximately $1.2 trillion of U.S. household net worth came from rising stock prices, while increased home equity contributed $1 trillion to U.S. household net worth. Americans' spending on cars, furniture, electronics, home appliances, and other durable goods contributes approximately $300 billion to household net worth.</p><p>The Federal Reserve last released this data in September 2020, but since then the U.S. stock market has risen by about 20%, and total household net worth has increased by about $7 trillion. Home prices also rose by about 5%, and homeowners' net worth increased by about $1 trillion. Total deposits in the banking system increased by nearly $700 billion, although some of this was additional liquidity obtained by businesses rather than consumers. Credit card debt has been reduced by more than $100 billion.</p><p><b>Americans have cut more than $100 billion in credit card debt since 2020</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04546a0b5489f0e3444f78f1b760b0bf\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Federal Reserve, Barron's Calculations</p><p>So, who has more cash to spend? The Federal Reserve stated that<b>Of the increased liquid assets from the end of 2019 to the end of September 2020, approximately 28% went to the top 1% of Americans, 70% to the top fifth of Americans, and only 14% ($330 billion out of $2.3 trillion) to the bottom 60% of Americans.</b>。</p><p>Since the Federal Reserve compiled this data, the distribution of liquid assets may have become more distorted, and the vast majority of Americans may have less idle cash on hand. After the government eliminated income subsidies last summer, many Americans had to use the savings they had accumulated earlier last year to maintain their spending.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Economists at the institute found that since last September, the lowest-income quarter, the most representative group of Americans, has spent nearly a third of their checking accounts. In fact,<b>By the end of last year, most Americans, except for the highest earners, had less money in their checking accounts than in the third quarter.</b>。</p><p>Stock ownership is extremely concentrated, so most of the profits go to those who already have enough cash to meet their consumption needs. Although the benefits of rising housing prices are distributed more evenly, they are unlikely to prompt a significant increase in consumer spending. Economists have found after studying historical data that consumers tend to spend 5% of their home equity gains on consumption, but in the years before the pandemic, this \"wealth effect\" was close to zero, partly because mortgage standards became stricter after the financial crisis.</p><p>For low- and middle-income Americans, the fastest-growing wealth category is durable goods, but this only reflects their contribution to the consumption recovery, not because their financial situation has improved enough to support future spending.</p><p><b>By income level, the proportion of different income groups contributing to the growth of U.S. household net worth</b></p><p><b>(2019Q4-2020Q3)</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37e23c1570b7eff37e125787024c5dd9\" tg-width=\"769\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Federal Reserve, Barron's Calculations</p><p>Therefore,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Joseph Briggs and David Mericle estimate that even if the total amount of \"excess savings\" could grow by 50% between now and mid-2021 with the help of a new round of government economic support,<b>Only about 18% of the money will be used to buy goods and services after the economy fully reopens; the rest will likely be used by high-income earners to invest in stocks or housing, and by low- and middle-income Americans to build the cash reserves they need.</b>。</p><p>Therefore, although the new $1.9 trillion economic stimulus package issued $1,400 checks to most Americans,<b>The spare cash Americans receive will likely only contribute about 2 percentage points to GDP growth in 2021, and while it will help the economic recovery, its impact will be very limited.</b>。</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ce367bd8c2034e36349cedee2358dfb","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198756345","content_text":"编者按：当地时间3月11日，美国总统拜登在白宫签署了1.9万亿美元新一轮新冠纾困法案，向符合条件的美国人每人发放1400美元救助金。拜登说，“这项历史性的立法是重建美国的重要一环，给美国的劳动人民、中产阶级以及建设这个国家的人们一个奋斗的机会。”《巴伦周刊》对相关数据进行研究后发现，美国政府之前“大撒钱”的确增加了美国人的存款，但由于分配不均，并没有给美国的整体消费者支出带来太大提振。新一轮经济刺激措施再次撒钱可能也无法给接下来的经济复苏贡献多少力量。新冠疫情期间，美国政府向居家隔离的美国人发放了支票作为补贴。由于消费者在服务上的支出减少，再加上政府之前发放的1.2万亿美元经济补贴，截至今年1月，美国人的储蓄额比在没有疫情的情况下，增加了1.8万亿美元左右。美国人的储蓄额比疫情没有发生时多了1.8万亿美元黑色线：美国个人实际储蓄额；绿色线：疫情未发生情况下的储蓄额数据来源：美国经济分析局，巴伦计算与此同时，股票和房产价价格大幅上升。这些现象带来的净效应是，美国家庭的总净资产比2019年底水平增加了约14万亿美元。一些经济学家曾担心，一旦疫苗广泛接种推动社会生活回到疫情前的正常状态，过多现金会刺激稀缺商品和服务需求激增，进而导致经济过热。但这种情况可能不会出现，仔细观察这些现金的实际去向就会发现，这些多出来的储蓄可能只能给疫情后的短暂消费热潮带来一定程度的推动，而不会导致价格持续大幅上涨。得出这一结论主要有两个原因。首先，与住宅和不动产等非流动性资产的账面收益相比，存在银行账户里的钱更有可能被花掉；其次，与收入较低的人相比，收入最高的人不太可能花掉一次性获得的意外之财。目前最详细的数据来自美联储发布的“可分配金融账户”(Distributal Financial Accounts)的数据，该数据跟踪的是一段时间内不同收入水平美国家庭的资产负债情况。从2019年底到2020年第三季度末，美国家庭净资产总额增加了5.2万亿美元，其中2.3万亿美元来自银行存款、货币市场基金股票投资和其他流动资产（如在券商开设的现金账户），这部分钱是可以马上花掉的。美国家庭净资产中约1.2万亿美元来自股票价格的上涨，与此同时，房屋净值增加为美国家庭的净资产贡献了了1万亿美元。美国人在汽车、家具、电子产品、家用电器和其他耐用品上的支出为家庭净资产贡献约3000亿美元。美联储最近一次公布该数据是在2020年9月，但在那之后美国股市上涨了约20％，家庭净资产总额又增加了约7万亿美元。房价也上涨了约5％，业主房屋净值增加了约1万亿美元。银行系统中的存款总额增长了近7000亿美元，尽管其中一些是企业获得的额外流动性而非消费者。信用卡债务已减少了1000亿美元以上。2020年以来，美国人信用卡债务削减了1000亿美元以上数据来源：美联储，巴伦计算那么，谁手中有更多现金可以花呢？美联储称，从2019年底到2020年9月底增加的流动资产中，约28%流向了收入最高的1%的美国人，70%流向了收入最高的五分之一的美国人，只有14%（2.3万亿美元中的3300亿美元）流向了收入最低的60%的美国人。自美联储编制这一数据以来，流动资产的分布可能变得更加扭曲，绝大多数美国人手中的闲置现金可能更少了。去年夏季政府取消收入补贴后，许多美国人不得不动用去年早些时候积累的储蓄来维持支出。摩根大通研究院的经济学家发现，自去年9月以来，收入最低的四分之一、最具代表性的美国人已经花掉了支票帐户中近三分之一的钱。实际上，到去年年底，除了收入最高的那部分人，大多数美国人支票帐户上的资金都少于第三季度。股票的所有权极其集中，所以大部分收益都流向了那些已经拥有足够现金来满足消费需求的人。虽然房价上涨带来的收益分配得更为平均，但也不太可能促进消费者支出大幅上升。经济学家在研究历史数据后发现，消费者往往将房屋净值收益的5%用于消费，但在疫情暴发前的几年里，这种“财富效应”接近于零，在一定程度是因为金融危机后抵押贷款标准更加严格。对于中低收入美国人来说，增长最快的财富类别是耐用品，但这只反映了他们对消费复苏的贡献，而不是因为他们的财务状况有了改善、足以支持未来的支出。按照收入水平来看，不同收入阶层对美国家庭资产净值增长的贡献比例（2019Q4-2020Q3）数据来源：美联储，巴伦计算因此，高盛的约瑟夫·布里格斯(Joseph Briggs)和戴维·梅里克(David Mericle)估计，在政府新一轮经济支持的帮助下，就算从现在到2021年中“超额储蓄”的总量还能增长50%，但只有大约18％的钱在经济全面重启后会用于购买商品和服务，其余的钱可能会被高收入者用来投资股票或住房，以及被中低收入美国人用于建立他们所需的现金储备。因此，虽然新一轮1.9万亿美元经济刺激计划向大多数美国人发放1400美元支票，但美国人获得的闲置现金加起来可能只会为2021年的GDP增长贡献大约2个百分点，虽说能给经济复苏带来帮助，但作用非常有限。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5497,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":true}