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  ·2021-06-14
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  Is Peloton Stock a Better Buy After the Recall?
  The company expects slower growth this year, but Peloton is continuing to expand its offering and expand internationally.
  Is Peloton Stock a Better Buy After the Recall?
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- vezvez
  ·2021-06-14
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  What to Expect in This Week’s Federal Reserve Meeting
  As the Federal Open Market Committee holds its regular policy meeting this coming week, once again a
  What to Expect in This Week’s Federal Reserve Meeting
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After an impressive climb during the pandemic, the stock has lost a third of its value year to date.&nbsp;While it's normal to see growth stocks experience wild price swings occasionally, investors are probably wondering whether the stock is a buy, sell, or hold following the company's recall of its treadmill products recently.</p>\n<p>On top of the recalls, management issued forward guidance for fiscal 2021 that shows a sharp deceleration in growth. For fiscal fourth quarter 2021, guidance calls for revenue to be $915 million, or a year-over-year increase of 51%. That's way down from the triple-digit levels Peloton reported last year.</p>\n<p>However, since Peloton acknowledged the problem and issued a recall of its treadmill products, the stock has rebounded 29% over the last month. The recent jump may signal that the near-term effect of the recalls has already been discounted in the stock price and that investors are looking ahead to fiscal 2022 and beyond.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F630338%2Fpeloton-bike-in-a-living-room.png&amp;w=700&amp;op=resize\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"468\"><span>Image source: Peloton Interactive.</span></p>\n<p>How Peloton performs over many years is way more important than how fast it grows in fiscal 2021. On that score, there are three reasons that the lower share price might present a good buying opportunity.</p>\n<h2>1. Peloton is seeing record upgrades to its exercise products</h2>\n<p>When a stock has fallen on disappointing news, it often pays to take a peek beneath the headline numbers to find clues about the real strength of the company's business. We know Peloton is likely going to experience a deceleration in growth in the next quarter based on guidance. But the investment case for Peloton centers around its long-term potential to capture its immediate addressable market of 15 million households.&nbsp;Peloton ended the last quarter with just 2.08 million connected fitness subscribers, which is the term used for the Bike and Tread products.</p>\n<p>It's got a long way to go, so the most important thing investors want to know is how customers are responding to the idea of purchasing a Peloton bike coming out of the pandemic. During the fiscal third-quarter earnings call, CFO Jill Woodworth offered <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> interesting detail about consumers' interest in Peloton's exercise products:</p>\n<p>\"During the past year, we've dedicated more resources to building a powerful digital to connected fitness upgrade path, and we are currently driving the highest monthly upgrade rates we have ever achieved.\"</p>\n<p>What Woodworth is referring to is a strong trend of digital app members deciding to purchase a Peloton Bike. Peloton offers a digital app subscription with access to yoga, outdoor running, strength classes, and other activities for $12.99 per month. Total subscribers across digital app and connected fitness products stood at over 5 million last quarter. The digital app serves as both a companion to the Bike and Tread, and an acquisition tool for management to attract new buyers.</p>\n<p>Woodworth sees the strong upgrade trend leading to more growth over time. \"As our digital membership base grows, we expect our improving upgrade rates to become an increasingly large driver of our connected fitness sales,\" she said.</p>\n<h2>2. Peloton continues to expand its product offering</h2>\n<p>It's also important to realize that Peloton has a broader product offering than it did during the pandemic, when revenue growth was exploding. This year, Peloton has two models with Bike and the new Bike+. The new version added a rotating screen for off-the-bike strength workouts, in addition to other features, including <b>Apple</b>&nbsp;GymKit compatibility.</p>\n<p>During a recent investor conference hosted by <b>Bank of America</b>, Woodworth pointed out that Peloton drove its growth last year without having to spend as much on marketing. However, the company is planning to ramp its marketing spending back up in the near term.&nbsp;With the larger product portfolio, it's in a stronger marketing position than before the pandemic.</p>\n<p>Peloton has relaunched and added new classes for yoga, barre, and pilates to its workout library over the last year. The company is excited to spread the word about its expanded offering.</p>\n<p>Keep in mind, this is a company that earns very high returns on marketing. For example, over the last two years, Peloton has increased its trailing-12-month marketing expense by 80%, but revenue has grown 303% over that time.&nbsp;This shows that Peloton is very effective with its marketing campaigns in bringing in new customers, and its ability to do this should be even more enhanced with an expanded product portfolio.</p>\n<h2>3. International growth is underestimated</h2>\n<p>Peloton's estimated addressable market of 15 million households is just in the four markets it's currently operating in. It doesn't count new geographies it plans to penetrate soon.&nbsp;Peloton will launch in Australia in the near term, and it's targeting <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> to two new markets per year.</p>\n<p>Management believes that as it launches new products and expands to new geographies, the addressable market will also expand beyond the current estimate.</p>\n<p>Investors will have to tolerate the volatility in the share price, but I believe the stock is still a buy, given the opportunities ahead.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Peloton Stock a Better Buy After the Recall?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Peloton Stock a Better Buy After the Recall?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-14 14:49 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/13/is-peloton-stock-a-better-buy-after-the-recall/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The recent downward spiral in Peloton Interactive's (NASDAQ:PTON) stock price has been unnerving for some investors. After an impressive climb during the pandemic, the stock has lost a third of its ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/13/is-peloton-stock-a-better-buy-after-the-recall/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PTON":"Peloton Interactive, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/13/is-peloton-stock-a-better-buy-after-the-recall/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2143178592","content_text":"The recent downward spiral in Peloton Interactive's (NASDAQ:PTON) stock price has been unnerving for some investors. After an impressive climb during the pandemic, the stock has lost a third of its value year to date. While it's normal to see growth stocks experience wild price swings occasionally, investors are probably wondering whether the stock is a buy, sell, or hold following the company's recall of its treadmill products recently.\nOn top of the recalls, management issued forward guidance for fiscal 2021 that shows a sharp deceleration in growth. For fiscal fourth quarter 2021, guidance calls for revenue to be $915 million, or a year-over-year increase of 51%. That's way down from the triple-digit levels Peloton reported last year.\nHowever, since Peloton acknowledged the problem and issued a recall of its treadmill products, the stock has rebounded 29% over the last month. The recent jump may signal that the near-term effect of the recalls has already been discounted in the stock price and that investors are looking ahead to fiscal 2022 and beyond.\nImage source: Peloton Interactive.\nHow Peloton performs over many years is way more important than how fast it grows in fiscal 2021. On that score, there are three reasons that the lower share price might present a good buying opportunity.\n1. Peloton is seeing record upgrades to its exercise products\nWhen a stock has fallen on disappointing news, it often pays to take a peek beneath the headline numbers to find clues about the real strength of the company's business. We know Peloton is likely going to experience a deceleration in growth in the next quarter based on guidance. But the investment case for Peloton centers around its long-term potential to capture its immediate addressable market of 15 million households. Peloton ended the last quarter with just 2.08 million connected fitness subscribers, which is the term used for the Bike and Tread products.\nIt's got a long way to go, so the most important thing investors want to know is how customers are responding to the idea of purchasing a Peloton bike coming out of the pandemic. During the fiscal third-quarter earnings call, CFO Jill Woodworth offered one interesting detail about consumers' interest in Peloton's exercise products:\n\"During the past year, we've dedicated more resources to building a powerful digital to connected fitness upgrade path, and we are currently driving the highest monthly upgrade rates we have ever achieved.\"\nWhat Woodworth is referring to is a strong trend of digital app members deciding to purchase a Peloton Bike. Peloton offers a digital app subscription with access to yoga, outdoor running, strength classes, and other activities for $12.99 per month. Total subscribers across digital app and connected fitness products stood at over 5 million last quarter. The digital app serves as both a companion to the Bike and Tread, and an acquisition tool for management to attract new buyers.\nWoodworth sees the strong upgrade trend leading to more growth over time. \"As our digital membership base grows, we expect our improving upgrade rates to become an increasingly large driver of our connected fitness sales,\" she said.\n2. Peloton continues to expand its product offering\nIt's also important to realize that Peloton has a broader product offering than it did during the pandemic, when revenue growth was exploding. This year, Peloton has two models with Bike and the new Bike+. The new version added a rotating screen for off-the-bike strength workouts, in addition to other features, including Apple GymKit compatibility.\nDuring a recent investor conference hosted by Bank of America, Woodworth pointed out that Peloton drove its growth last year without having to spend as much on marketing. However, the company is planning to ramp its marketing spending back up in the near term. With the larger product portfolio, it's in a stronger marketing position than before the pandemic.\nPeloton has relaunched and added new classes for yoga, barre, and pilates to its workout library over the last year. The company is excited to spread the word about its expanded offering.\nKeep in mind, this is a company that earns very high returns on marketing. For example, over the last two years, Peloton has increased its trailing-12-month marketing expense by 80%, but revenue has grown 303% over that time. This shows that Peloton is very effective with its marketing campaigns in bringing in new customers, and its ability to do this should be even more enhanced with an expanded product portfolio.\n3. International growth is underestimated\nPeloton's estimated addressable market of 15 million households is just in the four markets it's currently operating in. It doesn't count new geographies it plans to penetrate soon. Peloton will launch in Australia in the near term, and it's targeting one to two new markets per year.\nManagement believes that as it launches new products and expands to new geographies, the addressable market will also expand beyond the current estimate.\nInvestors will have to tolerate the volatility in the share price, but I believe the stock is still a buy, given the opportunities ahead.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":190,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185269559,"gmtCreate":1623653967571,"gmtModify":1704207893855,"author":{"id":"3553051550359066","authorId":"3553051550359066","name":"vez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad6c1af9288c66d6db4e872955837836","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3553051550359066","authorIdStr":"3553051550359066"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/185269559","repostId":"1138219989","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138219989","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623650085,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1138219989?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-14 13:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What to Expect in This Week’s Federal Reserve Meeting","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138219989","media":"Barrons","summary":"As the Federal Open Market Committee holds its regular policy meeting this coming week, once again a","content":"<p>As the Federal Open Market Committee holds its regular policy meeting this coming week, once again analysts and investors should flip the Nixon-era cliché and watch what they say, not what they do. What everybody wants to know is whether the panel finally has gotten around to talking about talking about moving away from its ubereasy monetary policy.</p>\n<p>We all know that the FOMC won’t take any substantive steps in terms of its massive securities purchases, which are still running at $120 billion a month. As for its key federal-funds rate target, that’s stuck at 0% to 0.25% (although there’s an outside chance of technical tweaking of some other Fed-administered rates to address the billions in excess cash sloshing around in the money markets).</p>\n<p>We’ll be looking for what’s in the FOMC’s formal policy statement and the panel’s updated Summary of Economic Projections, which will include the amalgam of the committee members’ guesses on key economic gauges, such as gross domestic product, inflation, and unemployment. Most likely, when that is posted&nbsp;on the Fed’s website&nbsp;at 2 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Wednesday, most folks will probably head straight for the FOMC’s guesses on the fed-funds rate, and specifically when liftoff from near-zero is finally expected.</p>\n<p>The “dot plot”—or graph of the FOMC members’ consensus guesses—puts the first hike all the way out past 2023. That seems a very long-term forecast, and as John Maynard Keynes famously pointed out, in the long run we’re all dead. Some Fed watchers, such as J.P. Morgan’s chief U.S. economist, Michael Feroli, look for the dots to show a 2023 liftoff.</p>\n<p>The markets, however, already had been pricing in one or more fed-funds rate hikes by 2023. But concurrent with the previously discussed slide in longer-term bond yields, the interest-rate futures markets have effectively priced out one of those short-term rate increases. In addition, the derivatives market now sees the fed-funds rate peaking under 2%, some 0.4 of a percentage point lower than what it had priced in earlier this year, according to analysts for&nbsp;Natixis.</p>\n<p>Long before making any rate hikes, the Fed will begin to lessen its accommodation by slowing its current pace of securities purchases, which consist of $80 billion of Treasuries and $40 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities every month. The trillions that the Federal Reserve and other central banks have created have gone a long way to boost the values of assets, which rose by $5 trillion, to $136.9 trillion, in the first quarter, according to new Fed data released this past week. That includes a $3.2 trillion rise in the value of equities owned by households and a $968 billion rise in their real estate holdings.</p>\n<p>The key criterion for reduced Fed accommodation is whether the monetary authorities see “substantial further progress” toward reaching what they deem as maximum employment, probably a deliberately ambiguous standard.</p>\n<p>But the increase in payrolls appears to be constrained as much by the supply of labor as businesses’ desire to hire. The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or Jolts, showed&nbsp;a record 9.3 million unfilled openings&nbsp;in April. In addition, 384,000 people left their positions that month, bringing the total of voluntary job quitters to a record four million.</p>\n<p>Anecdotal evidence, including some in the Fed’s beige book summary of economic conditions prepared for the coming meeting, suggests that employers aren’t finding enough workers because of generous unemployment compensation. Unusual for a social science such as economics, there will be a real-time experiment to test this hypothesis as 25 states end the extra $300 weekly payment early.</p>\n<p>Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons write in a research note that these 25 states account for about a quarter of all the unemployed workers. Ending their extra jobless benefits could boost employment by roughly two million in the next few months, they estimate. Another growth spurt should follow in September and October after the extra unemployment insurance expires in the remaining states; schools reopen—providing free daycare for some would-be workers, especially women; and many office employees return to their desks, they add.</p>\n<p>At that point, the Fed might start talking about actually reducing its massive securities purchases. Given the “taper tantrum” thrown by the markets when the central bank slowed its bond buying in 2013, this Fed will want to disclose how, when, and how fast it plans to slow its pour into the punch bowl. That’s what we’ll be listening for this week.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What to Expect in This Week’s Federal Reserve Meeting</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat to Expect in This Week’s Federal Reserve Meeting\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-14 13:54 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/what-to-expect-in-next-weeks-federal-reserve-meeting-51623457837?mod=RTA><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As the Federal Open Market Committee holds its regular policy meeting this coming week, once again analysts and investors should flip the Nixon-era cliché and watch what they say, not what they do. ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/what-to-expect-in-next-weeks-federal-reserve-meeting-51623457837?mod=RTA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/what-to-expect-in-next-weeks-federal-reserve-meeting-51623457837?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138219989","content_text":"As the Federal Open Market Committee holds its regular policy meeting this coming week, once again analysts and investors should flip the Nixon-era cliché and watch what they say, not what they do. What everybody wants to know is whether the panel finally has gotten around to talking about talking about moving away from its ubereasy monetary policy.\nWe all know that the FOMC won’t take any substantive steps in terms of its massive securities purchases, which are still running at $120 billion a month. As for its key federal-funds rate target, that’s stuck at 0% to 0.25% (although there’s an outside chance of technical tweaking of some other Fed-administered rates to address the billions in excess cash sloshing around in the money markets).\nWe’ll be looking for what’s in the FOMC’s formal policy statement and the panel’s updated Summary of Economic Projections, which will include the amalgam of the committee members’ guesses on key economic gauges, such as gross domestic product, inflation, and unemployment. Most likely, when that is posted on the Fed’s website at 2 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Wednesday, most folks will probably head straight for the FOMC’s guesses on the fed-funds rate, and specifically when liftoff from near-zero is finally expected.\nThe “dot plot”—or graph of the FOMC members’ consensus guesses—puts the first hike all the way out past 2023. That seems a very long-term forecast, and as John Maynard Keynes famously pointed out, in the long run we’re all dead. Some Fed watchers, such as J.P. Morgan’s chief U.S. economist, Michael Feroli, look for the dots to show a 2023 liftoff.\nThe markets, however, already had been pricing in one or more fed-funds rate hikes by 2023. But concurrent with the previously discussed slide in longer-term bond yields, the interest-rate futures markets have effectively priced out one of those short-term rate increases. In addition, the derivatives market now sees the fed-funds rate peaking under 2%, some 0.4 of a percentage point lower than what it had priced in earlier this year, according to analysts for Natixis.\nLong before making any rate hikes, the Fed will begin to lessen its accommodation by slowing its current pace of securities purchases, which consist of $80 billion of Treasuries and $40 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities every month. The trillions that the Federal Reserve and other central banks have created have gone a long way to boost the values of assets, which rose by $5 trillion, to $136.9 trillion, in the first quarter, according to new Fed data released this past week. That includes a $3.2 trillion rise in the value of equities owned by households and a $968 billion rise in their real estate holdings.\nThe key criterion for reduced Fed accommodation is whether the monetary authorities see “substantial further progress” toward reaching what they deem as maximum employment, probably a deliberately ambiguous standard.\nBut the increase in payrolls appears to be constrained as much by the supply of labor as businesses’ desire to hire. The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or Jolts, showed a record 9.3 million unfilled openings in April. In addition, 384,000 people left their positions that month, bringing the total of voluntary job quitters to a record four million.\nAnecdotal evidence, including some in the Fed’s beige book summary of economic conditions prepared for the coming meeting, suggests that employers aren’t finding enough workers because of generous unemployment compensation. Unusual for a social science such as economics, there will be a real-time experiment to test this hypothesis as 25 states end the extra $300 weekly payment early.\nJefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons write in a research note that these 25 states account for about a quarter of all the unemployed workers. Ending their extra jobless benefits could boost employment by roughly two million in the next few months, they estimate. Another growth spurt should follow in September and October after the extra unemployment insurance expires in the remaining states; schools reopen—providing free daycare for some would-be workers, especially women; and many office employees return to their desks, they add.\nAt that point, the Fed might start talking about actually reducing its massive securities purchases. Given the “taper tantrum” thrown by the markets when the central bank slowed its bond buying in 2013, this Fed will want to disclose how, when, and how fast it plans to slow its pour into the punch bowl. That’s what we’ll be listening for this week.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":289,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":true}