To The Moon
Home
News
TigerAI
Log In
Sign Up
观天下87
醉卧经阁半卷书,坐井说天阔
+Follow
Posts · 124
Posts · 124
Following · 0
Following · 0
Followers · 0
Followers · 0
观天下87
观天下87
·
2021-02-23
666
How did gurus like Buffett, Dalio, Soros, and others respond to the stock market decline?
巴菲特表示当股市走跌时,不要密切关注股市表现,要保持冷静,长期持有。 格雷厄姆:第一,永远不要亏损;第二,永远不要忘记第一条。 达里奥表示,投资者在市场出现下跌时总是容易做出抛售的决定,但屈从恐惧并不
How did gurus like Buffett, Dalio, Soros, and others respond to the stock market decline?
看
2.08K
回复
Comment
点赞
4
编组 21备份 2
Share
Report
观天下87
观天下87
·
2021-02-12
6
Opening: US Stocks Collective open low! Virgin Galactic Down 10%, Disney's Record High
2月12日(周五)开盘,美股三大股指集体低开。维珍银河跌10%,此前宣布取消了原定周六的太空试飞计划。迪士尼股价创新高,周四盘后公司公布2021年第一财季业绩,迪士尼第一财季营收162.5亿美元,市场
Opening: US Stocks Collective open low! Virgin Galactic Down 10%, Disney's Record High
看
1.96K
回复
Comment
点赞
Like
编组 21备份 2
Share
Report
Load more
No followers yet
Most Discussed
{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isCurrentUser":false,"userPageInfo":{"id":"3554433718518201","uuid":"3554433718518201","gmtCreate":1591339696124,"gmtModify":1617267689906,"name":"观天下87","pinyin":"gtx87guantianxia87","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"醉卧经阁半卷书,坐井说天阔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0e1e025d0b0c730c9387f1959c10a83","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":290,"headSize":303,"tweetSize":124,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":3,"name":"书生虎","nameTw":"書生虎","represent":"努力向上","factor":"发布10条非转发主帖,其中5条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-2","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"Executive Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $300,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d20b23f1b6335407f882bc5c2ad12c0","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ada3b4533518ace8404a3f6dd192bd29","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/177f283ba21d1c077054dac07f88f3bd","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"80.25%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-1","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Debut Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 500 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e4d0ca1da0456dc7894c946d44bf9ab","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f2f65e8ce4cfaae8db2bea9b127f58b","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5948a31b6edf154422335b265235809","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.27","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-3","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Legendary Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 300","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"93.28%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"page":1,"watchlist":null,"tweetList":[{"id":363975086,"gmtCreate":1614092464545,"gmtModify":1704888057991,"author":{"id":"3554433718518201","authorId":"3554433718518201","name":"观天下87","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0e1e025d0b0c730c9387f1959c10a83","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554433718518201","authorIdStr":"3554433718518201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/363975086","repostId":"1114793986","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114793986","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614088147,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1114793986?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-23 21:49","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"How did gurus like Buffett, Dalio, Soros, and others respond to the stock market decline?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114793986","media":"腾讯网","summary":"巴菲特表示当股市走跌时,不要密切关注股市表现,要保持冷静,长期持有。\n格雷厄姆:第一,永远不要亏损;第二,永远不要忘记第一条。\n达里奥表示,投资者在市场出现下跌时总是容易做出抛售的决定,但屈从恐惧并不","content":"<p>Buffett said that when the stock market falls, don't pay close attention to the performance of the stock market, stay calm and hold for the long term.</p><p>Graham: Number one, never lose money; Second, never forget the number one.</p><p>Dario said that investors are always prone to making the decision to sell when the market falls, but giving in to fear is not a wise strategy, because it will not be successful. Keep calm and move in the opposite direction.</p><p>Peter Lynch calls a plunge the best opportunity to make big money: It is often in this kind of stock market crash that huge wealth has a chance to make.</p><p>Soros: The way to get wealth is to recognize the illusion, invest in it, and then quit the game before the illusion is recognized by the public.</p><p>Jim Rogers: Buy for what it is worth, sell for what it is crazy.</p><p>What should the average investor do if the stock market plummets?</p><p><b>1. How do masters deal with the big crash?</b></p><p><b>Buffett: Stay Calm, Hold for the Long Term</b></p><p>In Warren Buffett's view, the best way for investors in the face of violent fluctuations in the stock market should be to stay calm and stick to the investment principle of long-term holding.</p><p>As a stock god with a career spanning more than 50 years, Buffett warned investors in a 2016 interview: \"When the stock market goes down, don't pay close attention to the performance of the stock market. If an investor is worried when the stock market goes down, and then thinks about dumping his stock when the stock market recovers, then such an investor will not end up getting the return of Li Auto.\"</p><p>Buffett has always emphasized that long-term investment is an important factor in achieving desirable returns. He believes that the gains from investing in the stock market come from holding shares in quality companies for a long time. If investors buy shares of high-quality companies and hold them for 10, 20, 30 years, they will eventually make good returns.</p><p>Buffett once explained in his annual letter to shareholders that markets are always volatile, so the best option for every investor, regardless of depth of investment experience, is to stay calm.</p><p>He wrote: While usually markets are rational, they occasionally get crazy. It doesn't take much wisdom or a degree in economics for investors to seize opportunities.</p><p>What investors need is simply the ability to ignore market panic or frenzy and focus on the fundamentals. It is also important to be able to maintain a boring, even stupid, willingness for a considerable period of time.</p><p>Graham</p><p>First, never lose money; Second, never forget the number one.</p><p>Graham is Buffett's mentor, the father of securities analysis, and the originator of value investing. In September 1929, the Dow rose to a peak of 381 and then began to fall. On October 29, the Dow Jones index plunged 12% on what was described as the \"worst day\" in the 112-year history of the New York Stock Exchange, which was the most famous \"Black Tuesday\" in history.</p><p>In November 1929, the Dow Jones dropped as low as 198 before stabilizing and rebounding. By March 1930, it had risen to 286 points at one point, rebounding by as much as 43%. So many investors think the worst is over and the stock market is about to turn around. Graham thinks so, so he starts to go bargain hunting.</p><p>He copied all good stocks that were very cheap from the perspective of value evaluation. In order to achieve greater returns, he also used margin for leverage. But the stock market rally lasted into April and then began to plummet again, with the Dow Jones falling 33% in 1930 and the fund managed by Graham losing as much as 50.5%.</p><p>By July 1932, the Dow reached a low of 41 points, with the biggest drop of 89% from a high of 381 points. In the same period, Graham's fund lost 78%, and this super bear market almost broke his bank.</p><p>Graham later made a comeback and wrote the investment bibles Securities Analysis and The Smart Investor, summarizing an eternal basic principle of value investing: the margin of safety.</p><p>Safety first, profit second.</p><p>Dario: Stay calm, reverse operation</p><p>Like Buffett, Dario, founder of Bridgewater, the world's largest hedge fund, agrees that investors should remain calm without panicking in the face of a stock market decline.</p><p>'Investors are always prone to selling when the market goes down,' Mr. Dario said, 'but giving in to fear is not a wise strategy because it will not be successful.'</p><p>Instead, when the market goes down, investors need to do the reverse, i.e. when you no longer feel fear, you may need to sell; When you feel fear, you may need to buy in.</p><p>At present, Bridgewater Fund has become the world's largest hedge fund company, with assets under management of up to $150 billion.</p><p>In Principles, Dario shares three things he learned in a market crash: One, you shouldn't be outrageously overconfident and indulge yourself in being swayed by your emotions. No matter how much I know, no matter how diligent I am, I should never confidently make absolute assertions.</p><p>Second, I once again appreciate the value of studying history; Third, it is quite difficult to time the market. One of the essentials to becoming a successful investor is to place risky bets only on those you have high confidence in, and to fully diversify those investments.</p><p>Wise people keep an eye on sound fundamentals through all kinds of ups and downs; While frivolous people follow their feelings, react emotionally, rush to hot things, and give up immediately when they are not hot.</p><p>The safest way to have many advantages without being exposed to unacceptable disadvantages is to make a series of good, unrelated bets that balance and complement each other.</p><p>Lynch, Peter J.</p><p>The historical law of stock market volatility tells us that all the big falls will pass, and the stock market will always rise higher. Historical experience also shows that the stock market crash is actually a good opportunity to release risks and create investment, and you can buy those excellent company stocks at very low prices. But bargain hunting isn't that simple. Instead of constantly copying the \"bottom\" and being trapped, it is better to wait for the bottom to appear before intervening.</p><p>When the U.S. stock market crashed in 1987, many people went from millionaires to extreme poverty, suffered mental breakdowns and even committed suicide. At that time, Peter Lynch, an American securities superstar, managed more than $10 billion in Magellan Fund. Within a day, the fund's net asset value lost 18%, and the loss was as high as $2 billion.</p><p>Lynch, like all open-end fund managers, had one choice: dump the stock. In order to cope with the extraordinarily large redemption, Lynch had to sell all the shares.</p><p>More than a year later, Peter Lynch still feels frightened when he recalls, \"At that moment, I really wasn't sure whether it was the end of the world, or whether we were about to go into a severe depression, or whether things weren't so bad yet, and it was just Wall Street about to end?\"</p><p>After that, Peter Lynch continued to experience many big stock market falls, but still achieved very successful performance.</p><p>First, don't panic and throw all the stocks at a bargain price. If you are desperate to sell stocks in the midst of a stock market crash, then your selling price will often be very low. The October 1987 market was frightening, but there was no need to sell stocks one day or the next.</p><p>The stock market began to rise steadily in November of that year. By June 1988, the market had rebounded by more than 400 points, which means a gain of over 23%.</p><p>Second, have firm courage to hold good company stocks. Third, dare to buy good company stocks at low prices. Plunges are the best opportunity to make big money: Great wealth is often made in this kind of stock market crash.</p><p>Soros</p><p>World Economic History is a series based on illusions and lies. The way to gain wealth is to recognize the illusion, invest in it, and then quit the game before the illusion is recognized by the public.</p><p>Before 1987, Soros thought that the Japanese stock market bubble was huge, and shorted Japanese stocks. As a result, it failed miserably, and the Japanese stock market reached a bull in 1989. In a Wall Street commentary, Soros touted that U.S. stocks would be strong and Japanese stocks would crash, and the result was the opposite: U.S. stocks crashed, but Japanese stocks were strong.</p><p>In September 1987, Soros moved billions of dollars of investment from Tokyo to Wall Street. However, it was not Japan's stock market that crashed first, but Wall Street in the United States.</p><p>On October 19th, 1987, the Dow Jones Average in New York, USA, plunged 508 points, a record at that time. Over the next week, the New York stock market slipped. The Japanese stock market has been relatively strong. Soros decided to sell off several large long-term shares he owned.</p><p>Other traders captured the information and took the opportunity to slash down the sold stocks, reducing the cash discount on futures by 20%. Soros lost about $650 million to $800 million in the Wall Street crash.</p><p>Soros became the biggest loser of the disaster after the collapse dropped Quantum Fund's net assets by 26.2%, much larger than the 17% decline in the U.S. stock market.</p><p>In the final analysis, the reason for Soros's fiasco in that year was speculative psychology, and he tried to figure out the market opportunity and went to the situation of huge losses.</p><p>There is no shame in mistakes. It is shame that mistakes are already obvious and have not been corrected. Take risks, beyond reproach. But at the same time, remember never to go all-in-one. It doesn't matter whether it's right or wrong. The key is how much you lose when you're wrong, and how much you make when you're right.</p><p>Jim Rogers: Buy for what it's worth, sell for what it's crazy</p><p>Wall Street investment guru Jim Rogers once pointed out that you should be patient and wait for a good time, make money and take profits, and then wait for the next opportunity. In this way, you can defeat others.</p><p>The market trend often shows a long-term sluggishness. In order to avoid getting funds into a stagnant market, investors should wait for the catalytic factors that can change the market trend. Buy it for money, sell it crazy.</p><p>Fisher, Philip A.</p><p>Philip Fisher is one of the pioneers of modern investment theory, the father of growth stock investment strategy, the godfather of investment guru, and one of the highly respected and respected investors on Wall Street.</p><p>Learn to spend a lot of time researching and not be in a rush to buy. In a continuously declining market environment, don't buy unfamiliar stocks too quickly.</p><p>In 1929, the U.S. stock market was in the crazy bull market before the collapse, but Fisher found that many industries in the United States were unstable and there was a severe bubble in the stock market.</p><p>In August 1929, he presented a report to senior bank executives that \"the worst big short market in 25 years will unfold.\" This is arguably the most admirable stock market forecast in Fisher's life. Unfortunately, Fisher is \"bearish and long\".</p><p>He said, \"I couldn't help but be confused by the strength of the stock market. So I looked everywhere for some relatively cheap stocks because they hadn't risen well yet.\" Fisher didn't survive the sudden collapse of the U.S. stock market in October 1929. He suffered heavy losses in the stock market crash, and Fisher lost all his money.</p><p>Fisher began to understand that the main factor in determining stock prices was not the P/E of the current year, but the expected P/E of the next few years. He said that if you can cultivate your ability to determine the possible performance of a certain stock in the next few years within a reasonable upper and lower limit, you can find a key, which can not only avoid losses, but also make huge profits.</p><p>Miller, Bill J.</p><p>\"I often remind my analysts that your information about the company is 100% representative of the company's past, and the valuation of the stock is 100% dependent on the future.\"</p><p>In the 15 years from 1991 to 2005, the Legg Mason Value Trust managed by Miller successively beat the S&P 500 index, creating the most brilliant fund manager performance record in history, and is praised as the most successful fund manager of this era. However, in just one year, the honor was ruined by his own hands.</p><p>During the subprime mortgage crisis, the stocks of many originally excellent companies fell sharply in succession. Miller believed that investors had overreacted, so he bought against the market. He thought the crisis would be a great opportunity to make money, but it turned into the worst bear market since the Great Depression.</p><p>Although his reverse investment decisions over the past 15 years have proved correct afterwards, this time it has fallen miserably. Miller's stock list is like the \"martyrs list\" of this crisis: AIG, Bear Stearns, Freddie Mac, Citi, Washington Mutual, etc.</p><p>In an interview in 2008, Miller, 58, said: \"From the beginning, I could not properly estimate the severity of this liquidity crisis.\"</p><p>Although Miller used to make money from market panic, he said that this time he didn't expect the crisis to be so serious and the fundamental problems so deep that all the high-quality listed companies that used to be market leaders collapsed.</p><p>\"I'm still inexperienced,\" Miller said. \"Every decision to buy stocks is wrong. It's terrible.\"</p><p>Lesson Learned \"Any outperforming portfolio will succeed over a certain period of time because it has the insurance of price misalignment. The market is wrong about this future figure. We use a combination of factors to identify price misalignment by comparing the market, the company's valuation with our own valuation of the company.\"</p><p><b>Second, what should ordinary investors do when the stock market plummets?</b></p><p>Situation 1: The stock in hand has fallen to the cost zone</p><p>Suggestion: In this situation, cautious investors should choose to leave the market, and more aggressive investors should set a stop-loss price, and then observe for a day or two before making a decision. Don't kill blindly, and don't have emotions about the stocks you buy. At this moment, your mind must be clear.</p><p>Situation 2: The stock in hand has already lost money</p><p>Suggestion: This kind of loss also needs to be treated by category. Investors can check the relevant information. If the stocks in their hands belong to the fund's heavy stocks, then don't blindly cut their positions. Even in the case of a rapid plunge in the market, they can cover their positions in batches, spread the cost, and fight with the fund to the end. (This suggestion is not suitable for use in the case of a bear market decline or a stock market crash)</p><p>However, if it is found by checking the data that the main force of the stock is mainly manipulated by individual large investors, investors should resolutely get out of the game and keep cash for greater initiative when the market of such stocks continues to be poor. Because the main force of this kind of stock generally won't protect the market when the market really plummets.</p><p>In addition, there are some stocks with relatively light transactions, and there are no obvious signs of main intervention, so we must set a stop-loss price. The nature of this stock is mainly to follow the trend. Once it falls below the long-term platform, we must resolutely leave the market.</p><p>Situation 3: Half money and half stocks</p><p>Suggestion: If investors are profitable in this part of their stocks, and the market trend is always unclear, they should sell out the stocks and keep cash. After all, there are many opportunities in the market, and only by keeping cash can you have a greater voice in the market.</p><p>If this part of the stocks in their hands has lost money, then investors should choose to quickly replenish the stocks in their hands after the market drops sharply and shows a steady trend. However, if the stock increases greatly on the same day after covering the position, it can be made in disguise T +0 on the same day to lock in some profits.</p><p>Situation 4: You want to enter the market with money in your hands</p><p>Suggestion: If you are an aggressive investor and have a certain ability to read the market, you can grab a rebound according to the market situation, but you should focus on short-term thinking.</p>","source":"lsy1571985465872","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How did gurus like Buffett, Dalio, Soros, and others respond to the stock market decline?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow did gurus like Buffett, Dalio, Soros, and others respond to the stock market decline?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">腾讯网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-23 21:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Buffett said that when the stock market falls, don't pay close attention to the performance of the stock market, stay calm and hold for the long term.</p><p>Graham: Number one, never lose money; Second, never forget the number one.</p><p>Dario said that investors are always prone to making the decision to sell when the market falls, but giving in to fear is not a wise strategy, because it will not be successful. Keep calm and move in the opposite direction.</p><p>Peter Lynch calls a plunge the best opportunity to make big money: It is often in this kind of stock market crash that huge wealth has a chance to make.</p><p>Soros: The way to get wealth is to recognize the illusion, invest in it, and then quit the game before the illusion is recognized by the public.</p><p>Jim Rogers: Buy for what it is worth, sell for what it is crazy.</p><p>What should the average investor do if the stock market plummets?</p><p><b>1. How do masters deal with the big crash?</b></p><p><b>Buffett: Stay Calm, Hold for the Long Term</b></p><p>In Warren Buffett's view, the best way for investors in the face of violent fluctuations in the stock market should be to stay calm and stick to the investment principle of long-term holding.</p><p>As a stock god with a career spanning more than 50 years, Buffett warned investors in a 2016 interview: \"When the stock market goes down, don't pay close attention to the performance of the stock market. If an investor is worried when the stock market goes down, and then thinks about dumping his stock when the stock market recovers, then such an investor will not end up getting the return of Li Auto.\"</p><p>Buffett has always emphasized that long-term investment is an important factor in achieving desirable returns. He believes that the gains from investing in the stock market come from holding shares in quality companies for a long time. If investors buy shares of high-quality companies and hold them for 10, 20, 30 years, they will eventually make good returns.</p><p>Buffett once explained in his annual letter to shareholders that markets are always volatile, so the best option for every investor, regardless of depth of investment experience, is to stay calm.</p><p>He wrote: While usually markets are rational, they occasionally get crazy. It doesn't take much wisdom or a degree in economics for investors to seize opportunities.</p><p>What investors need is simply the ability to ignore market panic or frenzy and focus on the fundamentals. It is also important to be able to maintain a boring, even stupid, willingness for a considerable period of time.</p><p>Graham</p><p>First, never lose money; Second, never forget the number one.</p><p>Graham is Buffett's mentor, the father of securities analysis, and the originator of value investing. In September 1929, the Dow rose to a peak of 381 and then began to fall. On October 29, the Dow Jones index plunged 12% on what was described as the \"worst day\" in the 112-year history of the New York Stock Exchange, which was the most famous \"Black Tuesday\" in history.</p><p>In November 1929, the Dow Jones dropped as low as 198 before stabilizing and rebounding. By March 1930, it had risen to 286 points at one point, rebounding by as much as 43%. So many investors think the worst is over and the stock market is about to turn around. Graham thinks so, so he starts to go bargain hunting.</p><p>He copied all good stocks that were very cheap from the perspective of value evaluation. In order to achieve greater returns, he also used margin for leverage. But the stock market rally lasted into April and then began to plummet again, with the Dow Jones falling 33% in 1930 and the fund managed by Graham losing as much as 50.5%.</p><p>By July 1932, the Dow reached a low of 41 points, with the biggest drop of 89% from a high of 381 points. In the same period, Graham's fund lost 78%, and this super bear market almost broke his bank.</p><p>Graham later made a comeback and wrote the investment bibles Securities Analysis and The Smart Investor, summarizing an eternal basic principle of value investing: the margin of safety.</p><p>Safety first, profit second.</p><p>Dario: Stay calm, reverse operation</p><p>Like Buffett, Dario, founder of Bridgewater, the world's largest hedge fund, agrees that investors should remain calm without panicking in the face of a stock market decline.</p><p>'Investors are always prone to selling when the market goes down,' Mr. Dario said, 'but giving in to fear is not a wise strategy because it will not be successful.'</p><p>Instead, when the market goes down, investors need to do the reverse, i.e. when you no longer feel fear, you may need to sell; When you feel fear, you may need to buy in.</p><p>At present, Bridgewater Fund has become the world's largest hedge fund company, with assets under management of up to $150 billion.</p><p>In Principles, Dario shares three things he learned in a market crash: One, you shouldn't be outrageously overconfident and indulge yourself in being swayed by your emotions. No matter how much I know, no matter how diligent I am, I should never confidently make absolute assertions.</p><p>Second, I once again appreciate the value of studying history; Third, it is quite difficult to time the market. One of the essentials to becoming a successful investor is to place risky bets only on those you have high confidence in, and to fully diversify those investments.</p><p>Wise people keep an eye on sound fundamentals through all kinds of ups and downs; While frivolous people follow their feelings, react emotionally, rush to hot things, and give up immediately when they are not hot.</p><p>The safest way to have many advantages without being exposed to unacceptable disadvantages is to make a series of good, unrelated bets that balance and complement each other.</p><p>Lynch, Peter J.</p><p>The historical law of stock market volatility tells us that all the big falls will pass, and the stock market will always rise higher. Historical experience also shows that the stock market crash is actually a good opportunity to release risks and create investment, and you can buy those excellent company stocks at very low prices. But bargain hunting isn't that simple. Instead of constantly copying the \"bottom\" and being trapped, it is better to wait for the bottom to appear before intervening.</p><p>When the U.S. stock market crashed in 1987, many people went from millionaires to extreme poverty, suffered mental breakdowns and even committed suicide. At that time, Peter Lynch, an American securities superstar, managed more than $10 billion in Magellan Fund. Within a day, the fund's net asset value lost 18%, and the loss was as high as $2 billion.</p><p>Lynch, like all open-end fund managers, had one choice: dump the stock. In order to cope with the extraordinarily large redemption, Lynch had to sell all the shares.</p><p>More than a year later, Peter Lynch still feels frightened when he recalls, \"At that moment, I really wasn't sure whether it was the end of the world, or whether we were about to go into a severe depression, or whether things weren't so bad yet, and it was just Wall Street about to end?\"</p><p>After that, Peter Lynch continued to experience many big stock market falls, but still achieved very successful performance.</p><p>First, don't panic and throw all the stocks at a bargain price. If you are desperate to sell stocks in the midst of a stock market crash, then your selling price will often be very low. The October 1987 market was frightening, but there was no need to sell stocks one day or the next.</p><p>The stock market began to rise steadily in November of that year. By June 1988, the market had rebounded by more than 400 points, which means a gain of over 23%.</p><p>Second, have firm courage to hold good company stocks. Third, dare to buy good company stocks at low prices. Plunges are the best opportunity to make big money: Great wealth is often made in this kind of stock market crash.</p><p>Soros</p><p>World Economic History is a series based on illusions and lies. The way to gain wealth is to recognize the illusion, invest in it, and then quit the game before the illusion is recognized by the public.</p><p>Before 1987, Soros thought that the Japanese stock market bubble was huge, and shorted Japanese stocks. As a result, it failed miserably, and the Japanese stock market reached a bull in 1989. In a Wall Street commentary, Soros touted that U.S. stocks would be strong and Japanese stocks would crash, and the result was the opposite: U.S. stocks crashed, but Japanese stocks were strong.</p><p>In September 1987, Soros moved billions of dollars of investment from Tokyo to Wall Street. However, it was not Japan's stock market that crashed first, but Wall Street in the United States.</p><p>On October 19th, 1987, the Dow Jones Average in New York, USA, plunged 508 points, a record at that time. Over the next week, the New York stock market slipped. The Japanese stock market has been relatively strong. Soros decided to sell off several large long-term shares he owned.</p><p>Other traders captured the information and took the opportunity to slash down the sold stocks, reducing the cash discount on futures by 20%. Soros lost about $650 million to $800 million in the Wall Street crash.</p><p>Soros became the biggest loser of the disaster after the collapse dropped Quantum Fund's net assets by 26.2%, much larger than the 17% decline in the U.S. stock market.</p><p>In the final analysis, the reason for Soros's fiasco in that year was speculative psychology, and he tried to figure out the market opportunity and went to the situation of huge losses.</p><p>There is no shame in mistakes. It is shame that mistakes are already obvious and have not been corrected. Take risks, beyond reproach. But at the same time, remember never to go all-in-one. It doesn't matter whether it's right or wrong. The key is how much you lose when you're wrong, and how much you make when you're right.</p><p>Jim Rogers: Buy for what it's worth, sell for what it's crazy</p><p>Wall Street investment guru Jim Rogers once pointed out that you should be patient and wait for a good time, make money and take profits, and then wait for the next opportunity. In this way, you can defeat others.</p><p>The market trend often shows a long-term sluggishness. In order to avoid getting funds into a stagnant market, investors should wait for the catalytic factors that can change the market trend. Buy it for money, sell it crazy.</p><p>Fisher, Philip A.</p><p>Philip Fisher is one of the pioneers of modern investment theory, the father of growth stock investment strategy, the godfather of investment guru, and one of the highly respected and respected investors on Wall Street.</p><p>Learn to spend a lot of time researching and not be in a rush to buy. In a continuously declining market environment, don't buy unfamiliar stocks too quickly.</p><p>In 1929, the U.S. stock market was in the crazy bull market before the collapse, but Fisher found that many industries in the United States were unstable and there was a severe bubble in the stock market.</p><p>In August 1929, he presented a report to senior bank executives that \"the worst big short market in 25 years will unfold.\" This is arguably the most admirable stock market forecast in Fisher's life. Unfortunately, Fisher is \"bearish and long\".</p><p>He said, \"I couldn't help but be confused by the strength of the stock market. So I looked everywhere for some relatively cheap stocks because they hadn't risen well yet.\" Fisher didn't survive the sudden collapse of the U.S. stock market in October 1929. He suffered heavy losses in the stock market crash, and Fisher lost all his money.</p><p>Fisher began to understand that the main factor in determining stock prices was not the P/E of the current year, but the expected P/E of the next few years. He said that if you can cultivate your ability to determine the possible performance of a certain stock in the next few years within a reasonable upper and lower limit, you can find a key, which can not only avoid losses, but also make huge profits.</p><p>Miller, Bill J.</p><p>\"I often remind my analysts that your information about the company is 100% representative of the company's past, and the valuation of the stock is 100% dependent on the future.\"</p><p>In the 15 years from 1991 to 2005, the Legg Mason Value Trust managed by Miller successively beat the S&P 500 index, creating the most brilliant fund manager performance record in history, and is praised as the most successful fund manager of this era. However, in just one year, the honor was ruined by his own hands.</p><p>During the subprime mortgage crisis, the stocks of many originally excellent companies fell sharply in succession. Miller believed that investors had overreacted, so he bought against the market. He thought the crisis would be a great opportunity to make money, but it turned into the worst bear market since the Great Depression.</p><p>Although his reverse investment decisions over the past 15 years have proved correct afterwards, this time it has fallen miserably. Miller's stock list is like the \"martyrs list\" of this crisis: AIG, Bear Stearns, Freddie Mac, Citi, Washington Mutual, etc.</p><p>In an interview in 2008, Miller, 58, said: \"From the beginning, I could not properly estimate the severity of this liquidity crisis.\"</p><p>Although Miller used to make money from market panic, he said that this time he didn't expect the crisis to be so serious and the fundamental problems so deep that all the high-quality listed companies that used to be market leaders collapsed.</p><p>\"I'm still inexperienced,\" Miller said. \"Every decision to buy stocks is wrong. It's terrible.\"</p><p>Lesson Learned \"Any outperforming portfolio will succeed over a certain period of time because it has the insurance of price misalignment. The market is wrong about this future figure. We use a combination of factors to identify price misalignment by comparing the market, the company's valuation with our own valuation of the company.\"</p><p><b>Second, what should ordinary investors do when the stock market plummets?</b></p><p>Situation 1: The stock in hand has fallen to the cost zone</p><p>Suggestion: In this situation, cautious investors should choose to leave the market, and more aggressive investors should set a stop-loss price, and then observe for a day or two before making a decision. Don't kill blindly, and don't have emotions about the stocks you buy. At this moment, your mind must be clear.</p><p>Situation 2: The stock in hand has already lost money</p><p>Suggestion: This kind of loss also needs to be treated by category. Investors can check the relevant information. If the stocks in their hands belong to the fund's heavy stocks, then don't blindly cut their positions. Even in the case of a rapid plunge in the market, they can cover their positions in batches, spread the cost, and fight with the fund to the end. (This suggestion is not suitable for use in the case of a bear market decline or a stock market crash)</p><p>However, if it is found by checking the data that the main force of the stock is mainly manipulated by individual large investors, investors should resolutely get out of the game and keep cash for greater initiative when the market of such stocks continues to be poor. Because the main force of this kind of stock generally won't protect the market when the market really plummets.</p><p>In addition, there are some stocks with relatively light transactions, and there are no obvious signs of main intervention, so we must set a stop-loss price. The nature of this stock is mainly to follow the trend. Once it falls below the long-term platform, we must resolutely leave the market.</p><p>Situation 3: Half money and half stocks</p><p>Suggestion: If investors are profitable in this part of their stocks, and the market trend is always unclear, they should sell out the stocks and keep cash. After all, there are many opportunities in the market, and only by keeping cash can you have a greater voice in the market.</p><p>If this part of the stocks in their hands has lost money, then investors should choose to quickly replenish the stocks in their hands after the market drops sharply and shows a steady trend. However, if the stock increases greatly on the same day after covering the position, it can be made in disguise T +0 on the same day to lock in some profits.</p><p>Situation 4: You want to enter the market with money in your hands</p><p>Suggestion: If you are an aggressive investor and have a certain ability to read the market, you can grab a rebound according to the market situation, but you should focus on short-term thinking.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20210223A0ADX600\">腾讯网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9beffeecb928009bf6287e307899ffe3","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20210223A0ADX600","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114793986","content_text":"巴菲特表示当股市走跌时,不要密切关注股市表现,要保持冷静,长期持有。\n格雷厄姆:第一,永远不要亏损;第二,永远不要忘记第一条。\n达里奥表示,投资者在市场出现下跌时总是容易做出抛售的决定,但屈从恐惧并不是个明智的策略,因为这样做并不会取得成功,要保持镇定,反向操作。\n彼得林奇称暴跌是赚大钱的最好机会:巨大的财富往往就是在这种股市大跌中才有机会赚到。\n索罗斯:要获得财富,做法就是认清其假象,投入其中,然后在假象被公众认识之前退出游戏。\n吉姆·罗杰斯:买其所值,卖其疯狂。\n如果股市暴跌,普通投资者应该怎么办?\n一、大师们如何应对大跌?\n巴菲特:保持冷静,长期持有\n在股神巴菲特看来,投资者在面对股市剧烈波动时,最好的方法应该是保持冷静,并坚守长期持有的投资原则。\n作为拥有长达五十多年投资生涯的股神,巴菲特曾在2016年的一次采访中告诫投资者:「当股市走跌时,不要密切关注股市表现。如果一个投资者遇到股市下跌就忧心忡忡,然后想着等股市回升时就抛掉手中的股票,那么这种投资者最终不会获得理想汽车的回报。」\n一直以来,巴菲特都在强调长期投资是取得理想收益的重要因素。他认为,投资股市所获得的收益来自于长期持有优质公司的股票。如果投资者购买优质公司的股票,且持有这些股票10年、20年、30年之久,那么他们最终将会取得不错的回报。\n巴菲特曾在致股东的年度信中解释说,市场总是处于波动之中,因此对于每个投资者来说,无论投资经验深浅,最好的选择就是保持镇定。\n他写道:虽然通常情况下市场是理性的,但市场偶尔也会有疯狂之举。对于投资者而言,抓住机遇并不需要太多的智慧或经济学位。\n投资者需要的,仅仅是无视市场恐慌或狂热的能力,并将注意力集中在基本面上即可。另外,能在相当长的时期内保持无趣、甚至是愚蠢的意愿也十分重要。\n格雷厄姆\n第一,永远不要亏损;第二,永远不要忘记第一条。\n格雷厄姆是巴菲特的导师,证券分析之父,价值投资的鼻祖。1929年9月,道琼斯指数最高涨到381点,随后开始下跌。10月29日,道琼斯指数暴跌12%,这一天被形容为纽约交易所112年历史上「最糟糕的一天」,这就是历史上最著名的「黑色星期二」。\n1929年11月,道琼斯指数最低跌到198点,然后企稳反弹。到1930年3月,一度涨到286点,反弹幅度高达43%。于是许多投资者认为最坏的时期已经过去了,股市将要大反转。格雷厄姆也这样认为,于是他开始进场抄底。\n他抄的都是从价值评估上看非常便宜的好股票,为了取得更大的收益率,他还利用保证金进行杠杆操作。但股市反弹持续到4月份后又开始暴跌,道琼斯指数在1930年下跌33%,而格雷厄姆管理的基金亏损高达50.5%。\n至1932年7月,道琼斯指数达到最低点41点,从最高点381点算起,最大跌幅高达89%,而同期格雷厄姆管理的基金亏损高达78%,这场超级大熊市几乎让他倾家荡产。\n格雷厄姆后来重新东山再起,写出投资圣经《证券分析》和《聪明的投资者》,总结出一个永恒的价值投资基本原则:安全边际。\n安全第一,赢利第二。\n达里奥:保持镇定,反向操作\n和巴菲特一样,全球最大对冲基金桥水基金创始人达里奥也认为,投资者在面对股市下跌时不必惊慌,应该保持冷静。\n达里奥表示,投资者在市场出现下跌时总是容易做出抛售的决定,但屈从恐惧并不是个明智的策略,因为这样做并不会取得成功。\n相反,在市场走跌时,投资者需要进行反向操作,即当你不再感到恐惧时,你可能需要卖出;当你感到恐惧时,你也许需要买进。\n目前,桥水基金已成为全球最大对冲基金公司,管理的资产规模高达1500亿美元。\n在《原则》一书中,达里奥分享了他在市场崩盘中学到的三件事情:第一,不应该离谱地过度自信,并放纵自己被情绪左右。无论我知道多少东西,无论我多么勤奋,我都不应该自信地做出绝对的断言。\n第二,我再次领会到研究历史的价值;第三,把握市场的时机相当困难。成为一个成功投资者的要决之一,是只对你有高度信心的投资对象进行冒险押注,并对这些对象进行充分的分散投资。\n明智的人在经历各种沉浮时都始终盯稳健的基本面;而轻浮的人跟着感觉走,做出情绪化的反应,对于热门的东西一拥而上,不热的时候又马上放弃。\n想要拥有很多优势,而又不暴露于不可接受的劣势之下,最稳妥的方式是做出一系列良好的、互不相关的押注,彼此平衡,相互补充。\n彼得·林奇\n股市波动的历史规律告诉我们,所有的大跌都会过去,股市永远会涨得更高。历史经验还表明,股市大跌其实是释放风险,创造投资的一次好机会,能以很低的价格买入那些很优秀的公司股票。但抄底并没有那么简单。与其去不断抄「底」,不断被套,不如等底部出现后再介入不迟。\n1987年美国股市大崩盘时,很多人由百万富翁沦为赤贫,精神崩溃甚至自杀。当时美国证券界超级巨星彼得·林奇管理着100多亿美元的麦哲伦基金,一天之内基金资产净值损失了18%,损失高达20亿美元。\n林奇和所有开放式基金经理一样,只有一个选择:抛售股票。为了应付非比寻常的巨额赎回,林奇不得不把股票都卖了。\n过了一年多,彼得·林奇回忆起来仍然感到害怕,「在那一时刻,我真的不能确定,到底是到了世界末日,还是我们即将陷入一场严重的经济大萧条,又或者是事情还没变得那么糟糕,仅仅只是华尔街即将完蛋?」\n之后彼得林奇继续经历过很多次股市大跌,但仍然取得了非常成功的绩效。\n第一,不要因恐慌而全部贱价抛出股票。如果你在股市暴跌中绝望地卖出股票,那么你的卖出价格往往会非常之低。1987年10月的行情让人感到惊恐不安,但没必要在这一天或第二天把股票抛出。\n当年11月份股市开始稳步上扬。到1988年6月,市场已经反弹了400多点,也就是说涨幅超过了23%。\n第二,对持有的好公司股票要有坚定的勇气。第三,要敢于低价买入好公司股票。暴跌是赚大钱的最好机会:巨大的财富往往就是在这种股市大跌中才有机会赚到。\n索罗斯\n世界经济史是一部基于假象和谎言的连续剧。要获得财富,做法就是认清其假象,投入其中,然后在假象被公众认识之前退出游戏。\n索罗斯1987年前认为日本股市泡沫巨大,放空日本股票,结果惨败,日本股市牛到了1989年。索罗斯在华尔街评论上鼓吹美国股市会坚挺,日本股市将会崩盘,而结果正好相反:美国股市崩盘了,日本股市却坚挺。\n1987年9月,索罗斯把几十亿美元的投资从东京转移到了华尔街。然而,首先出现大崩溃的不是日本证券市场,而恰恰是美国的华尔街。\n1987年10月19日,美国纽约道琼斯平均指数狂跌508点,创当时历史记录。在接下来的一个星期里,纽约股市一路下滑。而日本股市却相对坚挺。索罗斯决定抛售手中所持有的几个大的长期股票份额。\n其他的交易商捕捉到有关信息后,借机猛烈向下砸被抛售的股票,使期货的现金折扣降了20%。索罗斯在这场华尔街大崩溃中,损失了大约6.5亿到8亿美元。\n这场大崩溃使量子基金净资产跌落26.2%,远大于17%的美国股市的跌幅,索罗斯成了这场灾难的最大失败者。\n索罗斯当年的惨败原因归根结底是投机心理作祟,揣摩市场时机一意孤行的走到了巨额亏损的境地。\n错误并不可耻,可耻的是错误已经显而易见了还不去修正。承担风险,无可指责。但同时记住千万不能孤注一掷。对错都不重要,关键是弄错的时候你损失了多少,判断正确的时候又赚了多少。\n吉姆·罗杰斯:买其所值,卖其疯狂\n华尔街投资大师吉姆·罗杰斯曾指出,应该耐心等待好时机,赚了钱获利了结,然后等待下一次机会。如此,才可以战胜别人。\n市场走势时常会呈现长期的低迷不振,为了避免使资金陷入一潭死水的市场中,投资者应该等待能够改变市场走势的催化因素出现。买其所值,卖其疯狂。\n菲利普·费雪\n菲利普·费雪是现代投资理论的开路先锋之一,成长股投资策略之父,教父级的投资大师,华尔街极受尊重和推崇的投资家之一。\n要学会花很多时间来研究,并不急于买入。在一个连续下跌的市场环境中,不要过快地买入那些不熟悉的股票。\n1929年美国股市处在崩溃前的疯狂牛市中,但费雪发现美国许多产业前景不稳,股市有严重泡沫。\n1929年8月,他向银行高级主管提交了一份「25年来最严重的大空头市场将展开。」的报告。这可以说是费雪一生中最令人赞叹的股市预测,可惜的是费雪「看空做多」。\n他说:「我免不了被股市的魁力所惑。于是到处寻找一些还算便宜的股票,因为它们还没涨到位。」1929年10月美股突然崩溃,费雪也没有幸免于难,在股灾中他损失惨重,费雪亦血本无归。\n费雪开始明白,决定股票价格的主要因素,不是当年的P/E,而是未来几年的预期P/E。他说,若能培养自己的能力,在合理的上下限内确定某只股票未来几年可能的业绩,就能找到一把钥匙,不但能避免亏损,更能赚得厚利。\n比尔·米勒\n「我经常提醒我的分析师们,你们关于公司的信息100%代表了公司的过去,而股票的估值100%取决于未来。」\n米勒管理的Legg Mason价值型信托基金在1991—2005年这15年当中,连续战胜标准普尔500指数,创造了有史以来最辉煌的基金经理业绩记录,被誉为这个时代最成功的基金经理。然而,在短短一年时间里,这个荣誉就被他亲手毁掉了。\n在次贷危机中,很多原来非常优秀的公司股票连续大幅下跌,米勒认为投资者反应过度了,于是逆市买入。他本以为那次危机是一次大好的赚钱良机,结果危机却变成大萧条之后最惨重的大熊市。\n虽然过去15年来他逆向操作的投资决策事后都证明是正确的,但这次却栽得很惨。米勒的股票清单就像是这次危机中的「烈士榜」:AIG、贝尔斯登、房地美、花旗、华盛顿互助银行等。\n2008年,已经58岁的米勒接受采访时说:「从一开始我就没能恰当地估计到这场流动性危机的严重性」。\n尽管米勒以前经常从市场恐慌中赚钱,但他说,这次自己没想到危机会这么严重,基本面的问题如此之深,以至于曾贵为市场领头羊的优质上市公司居然统统倒下了。\n「我还是缺乏经验」,米勒说,「每一个买进股票的决定都是错的,真是太可怕了。」\n经验教训「任何超常发挥的投资组合,在某段时间内能成功,是因为具有价格错位的保险性。市场对这个未来数的估计是错的。我们通过比较市场,对此公司的估值以及我们自己对公司的估值,用多种要素组合的方法来找出价格错位。」\n二、股市暴跌,普通投资者怎么办?\n状况一:手中股票已经跌到成本区\n建议:在这种状况下,谨慎的投资者应该选择离场,比较激进的也要设置止损价,然后观察一两天再作出决定。不要盲目杀跌,也不要对自己买的股票有情绪,在这个时刻,头脑一定要清醒。\n状况二:手中股票已经出现亏损\n建议:这种亏损也需要分类对待,投资者可查看相关资料,如果手中股票属于基金重仓股,那么就不要盲目斩仓,甚至在大盘快速暴跌的情况下,可分批补仓,摊低成本,和基金死磕到底。(如遇熊市下跌过程中或股灾的时候,不适合用这条建议)\n而如果通过查看资料发现,该股票主力主要是由个别大户操纵的,这样的股票在市场持续不佳的情况下,投资者应该坚决出局,保住现金争取更大的主动性。因为这种股票的主力在大盘真正暴跌时一般不会护盘。\n另外,还有一些成交比较清淡的个股,没有明显主力介入的迹象,那么一定要设立止损价位,这种股票的性质主要以跟风为主,一旦跌破长期形成的平台,一定要坚决离场。\n状况三:手中一半是钱一半是股票\n建议:如果投资者这部分股票处于盈利状态,而市场趋势始终看不明朗,那么应将股票出掉,保留现金。毕竟市场中的机会很多,保留现金才能在市场中有更大的话语权。\n如果是手中这部分股票已经亏损,那么投资者应该选择市场在大幅下跌之后,并出现走稳趋向的时候,迅速补充自己手中的股票。而如果补仓后,该股当天涨幅较大,可当天做变相T+0,锁定一部分利润。\n状况四:手中都是钱想进场\n建议:如果是激进型的投资者,并有一定看盘能力的,可以根据市场情况抢反弹,但应以短线思维为主。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2079,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":386126561,"gmtCreate":1613144246353,"gmtModify":1704878930738,"author":{"id":"3554433718518201","authorId":"3554433718518201","name":"观天下87","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0e1e025d0b0c730c9387f1959c10a83","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554433718518201","authorIdStr":"3554433718518201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/386126561","repostId":"1131538318","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1131538318","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1613140360,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1131538318?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-12 22:32","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Opening: US Stocks Collective open low! Virgin Galactic Down 10%, Disney's Record High","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131538318","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"2月12日(周五)开盘,美股三大股指集体低开。维珍银河跌10%,此前宣布取消了原定周六的太空试飞计划。迪士尼股价创新高,周四盘后公司公布2021年第一财季业绩,迪士尼第一财季营收162.5亿美元,市场","content":"<p>At the opening of February 12th (Friday), the three major stock indexes of the United States stock market collectively open low.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31ff6d45a2f1cd03cea299c52b616c41\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Virgin Galactic fell 10% after announcing the cancellation of a space test flight scheduled for Saturday.</p><p>Disney's share price hit a new high. After the hours on Thursday, the company announced its first fiscal quarter results of 2021. Disney's first fiscal quarter revenue was 16.25 billion USD, compared with the market expectation of 15.91 billion USD; Adjusted EPS of $0.32, the market was expecting a loss of $0.41. Moreover, Morgan Stanley said the Disneyland business appears to have \"passed the worst.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/323889855c4082ac98ad73d5c2e67de0\" tg-width=\"994\" tg-height=\"463\">Tesla fell 1.6% after the German Automobile Authority previously announced that Tesla must recall about 12,300 Model Xs worldwide.</p><p>Industrial hemp stocks continued to pull back, with Sundial Grower down more than 20%.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opening: US Stocks Collective open low! Virgin Galactic Down 10%, Disney's Record High</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpening: US Stocks Collective open low! Virgin Galactic Down 10%, Disney's Record High\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-02-12 22:32</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>At the opening of February 12th (Friday), the three major stock indexes of the United States stock market collectively open low.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31ff6d45a2f1cd03cea299c52b616c41\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Virgin Galactic fell 10% after announcing the cancellation of a space test flight scheduled for Saturday.</p><p>Disney's share price hit a new high. After the hours on Thursday, the company announced its first fiscal quarter results of 2021. Disney's first fiscal quarter revenue was 16.25 billion USD, compared with the market expectation of 15.91 billion USD; Adjusted EPS of $0.32, the market was expecting a loss of $0.41. Moreover, Morgan Stanley said the Disneyland business appears to have \"passed the worst.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/323889855c4082ac98ad73d5c2e67de0\" tg-width=\"994\" tg-height=\"463\">Tesla fell 1.6% after the German Automobile Authority previously announced that Tesla must recall about 12,300 Model Xs worldwide.</p><p>Industrial hemp stocks continued to pull back, with Sundial Grower down more than 20%.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1afea4c0436572ccffe9056dab1048f9","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131538318","content_text":"2月12日(周五)开盘,美股三大股指集体低开。维珍银河跌10%,此前宣布取消了原定周六的太空试飞计划。迪士尼股价创新高,周四盘后公司公布2021年第一财季业绩,迪士尼第一财季营收162.5亿美元,市场预期159.1亿美元;调整后每股收益0.32美元,市场预期亏损0.41美元。此外,摩根士丹利称,迪士尼乐园业务似乎“已经度过了最糟糕的时期”。特斯拉跌1.6%,德国汽车管理局此前宣布特斯拉须在全球召回约1.23万辆Model X。工业大麻股持续回调,Sundial Grower跌逾20%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1957,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":true}