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DylanX

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- DylanXDylanX
  ·2022-05-23
  $HSI(HSI)$hopefully a reversal after lunch
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- DylanXDylanX
  ·2021-09-14
  $BI#HSI RC2312H.C(66119)$ HSI pumping today.
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- DylanXDylanX
  ·2021-09-13
  $BI#HSI RC2312H.C(66119)$ HSI going green tomorrow.
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- DylanXDylanX
  ·2021-09-08
  Definitely. The potential for SEA is huge.
  Is Sea Limited Stock A Good Buy For The Long-Term?
  Summary Sea Limited is a very high-quality growth stock that surprisingly receives less attention t
  Is Sea Limited Stock A Good Buy For The Long-Term?
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- DylanXDylanX
  ·2021-09-07
  Cool
  Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has scored a $2 billion gain on BYD stock this year
  Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has made a $2 billion gain on BYD this year. Berkshire spent $23
  Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has scored a $2 billion gain on BYD stock this year
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- DylanXDylanX
  ·2021-09-06
  Hopefully it is good
  北京证券交易所来了！谁的“大肉”，谁的“汤”？
  9月2日晚，中央宣布将深化新三板改革，设立北京证券交易所，打造服务创新型中小企业主阵地。一、设立北京证券交易所是大国博弈、“科技兴邦”的战略抉择当前，一场以数字经济、芯片、人工智能、新能源技术、太
  北京证券交易所来了！谁的“大肉”，谁的“汤”？
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- DylanXDylanX
  ·2021-09-03
  $PW MEDTECH(01358)$ high potential stock. Keep a close lookout for this
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- DylanXDylanX
  ·2021-09-02
  $JD LOGISTICS(02618)$ great potential stock
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- DylanXDylanX
  ·2021-08-31
  $Glory Star New Media Group Holdings Limited(GSMG)$ good potential growth! Take a look
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- DylanXDylanX
  ·2021-08-27
  $DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$ to the moon!
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RC2312H.C(66119)$</a>&nbsp;HSI going green tomorrow.&nbsp;","text":"$BI#HSI RC2312H.C(66119)$ HSI going green tomorrow.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c132f38456074986c8d68076a4212535","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/886307665","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":350,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880406178,"gmtCreate":1631069024394,"gmtModify":1676530458787,"author":{"id":"3554723558168801","authorId":"3554723558168801","name":"DylanX","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9cece583c7a795a8ce48d0e39d630693","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554723558168801","authorIdStr":"3554723558168801"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Definitely. The potential for SEA is huge.&nbsp;","listText":"Definitely. The potential for SEA is huge.&nbsp;","text":"Definitely. The potential for SEA is huge.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/880406178","repostId":"1120889633","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120889633","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631068652,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1120889633?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-08 10:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Sea Limited Stock A Good Buy For The Long-Term?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120889633","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nSea Limited is a very high-quality growth stock that surprisingly receives less attention t","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Sea Limited is a very high-quality growth stock that surprisingly receives less attention than Alibaba, MercadoLibre, and Amazon, even though it has outperformed all of them, hands down.</li>\n <li>We help investors understand the key metrics in a useful analytical framework to evaluate Sea Limited's growth opportunities and whether it is worthy of a long-term position.</li>\n <li>Lastly, we present our valuation argument to help our readers to decide whether they should add Sea Limited stock right now.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6050b357f1df083177d9ed6c9d848071\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1163\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>nuttapong/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Investment Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Sea Limited(NYSE:SE)is one of our core holdings in our growth portfolio and one that we have taken the opportunity to add on major dips in the uptrend over the last year as the stock's incredible momentum saw it easily outperforming its e-commerce peers and mobile gaming peers.</p>\n<p>For growth investors, Sea's incredible growth trajectory has been truly phenomenal, coupled with it being free of Beijing's oversights that saw its Chinese peers fall like dominoes, stunning even institutional investors with the pace of the government's \"rectification\" adjustments.</p>\n<p>Sea's ascent has also been somewhat of a conundrum for value investors, as they don't get how an unprofitable company can be trading at such sky-high valuations without consequences.</p>\n<p>Therefore, to answer whether Sea Limited stock is a good long-term buy for investors, we will show our readers how to apply the appropriate analytical framework and valuation treatment to the company, based on its performance and its projections moving forward, so that investors can make meaningful decisions on whether they think Sea Limited is a worthy long-term addition to their portfolio now.</p>\n<p>For investors who are new to Sea Limited, we have recently written several articles on the company, which you can refer to them as a preamble.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0396874197381d0fc087a864425a26d9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Sea &amp; Peers' stock YTD performance (as of 3 Sep 21)</span></p>\n<p>This year, Sea has been one of our portfolio's leading performers as the stock raced to an 83% YTD lead that easily outperformed all its peers and SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF(NYSEARCA:SPY). This performance is even more incredible because it came off an outstanding 2020, where it also outperformed with a 392% return.</p>\n<p>While the rest of its American and Chinese peers often received more coverage than this Singapore-headquartered company, it has been Sea which has been quietly delivering. It has been executing, expanding its Garena gaming ecosystem, and reaching new milestones. It's been scaling its e-commerce footprint to LatAm and demonstrating to Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)&nbsp;that they are not experiencing any reopening headwinds. This is in contrast to what&nbsp;Amazon indicated&nbsp;in its recent earnings. The company is also growing its Sea Money footprint, especially through the Shopee/Shopee Pay flywheel, as the company stakes its FinTech leadership ambitions against Southeast Asia's FinTech leader Grab(NASDAQ:AGC).</p>\n<p>As a result of Sea Limited's incredible success, the group's China-born CEO&nbsp;Forrest Li&nbsp;is also now Singapore's richest man with a net worth of $20.3B.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1620f0a51f5f3cdb4a59c482df5ec1f1\" tg-width=\"380\" tg-height=\"236\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>SE quant rating (momentum). Source: Seeking Alpha Premium</span></p>\n<p>We have always reminded investors that Sea stock is one that you should never bet against even if you are bearish on its long-term prognosis. The stock has made one of the strongest upside moves we have seen for stocks in our growth portfolio. This is also corroborated by Seeking Alpha's proprietary quant momentum rating, giving it the best possible A+ grade on its most recent performance.</p>\n<p>Given the company and the stock's stupendous performances so far, we think it's only apt that investors ask whether SE's future optimism has been largely priced in, which is especially important for new investors who have yet to add its stock, where we will highlight the analytical framework on how investors can use to consider the company's prospects moving forward.</p>\n<p><b>Monitor Its Revenue Growth Closely</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e796ddaf599085b7ad02d64a84dd3b87\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Sea Limited quarterly revenue. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6ddcbf7578338f88c00c9432ab58f23\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Sea Limited quarterly revenue YoY growth. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>Sea Limited impressed with another awesome quarter of topline growth as total revenue grew 159% YoY on revenue of $2.28B. Its QoQ performance was also remarkable with a 29% QoQ growth, as the company shows that its gangbusters growth knows \"no limit.\"</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60c7db30aeda80ea916ef8aa2816c93e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Sea Limited GAAP quarterly operating margins. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>For companies like Sea, whose strategy is still focused very much on topline growth and building scale efficiencies in the process, we should not be too concerned with its negative operating margins, as long as the company clearly demonstrated that it could grow rapidly like in Sea's case, and also achieve economies of scale through ramping revenue as it seeks out its \"blue oceans.\" We also articulated this point in a recent article on Snowflake(NYSE:SNOW), which operates in a huge market with a massive opportunity to expand, and the firm has shown that it can execute its strategies very well to capture those revenue opportunities&nbsp;despite having negative operating margins right now.</p>\n<p>Therefore, Sea Limited has certainly struck the right notes here, and we see no cause for concern so far. What matters for investors now is whether the company is still expected to grow this rapidly moving forward.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f1bb9296424b15e07d5536227010fd4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Sea Limited revenue mean consensus estimates. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5efed61b23216e709291326ae9eac3b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"291\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Sea Limited consensus revenue estimates revision trend. Source: Seeking Alpha Premium</span></p>\n<p>Readers should easily glean that the Street upgraded revenue forecasts for the company after Q2's earnings release from what they projected post Q1 earnings. For example, revenue projection for FY21 has been increased by 11.5% to reflect the improved guidance from the company. Even though projections for FY24 to FY25 look rather tepid, readers should note that only three analysts covered the FY24 projections, while only two covered for FY25, compared to the 18-21 analysts who covered FY21 to FY23 numbers. As a result, we will also focus our discussion up to FY23 numbers to keep them meaningful.</p>\n<p>The expected revenue CAGR from FY20 to FY23 is 59.1%, while it reads 40.1% from FY21 to FY23. Therefore, the market is still expecting Sea Limited to deliver remarkable topline growth rates moving forward.At the same time, we are cautiously optimistic about Sea Limited's future, under the skillful stewardship of Group CEO Forrest Li and his management team. The team includes his two very competent business unit chiefs&nbsp;Chris Feng&nbsp;and Terry Zhao. Feng was born in China and leads Shopee and Sea Money. He is a Stanford alumnus like Li and he was recruited from Lazada(NYSE:BABA)by Li in 2014. Feng is said to be a “very, very smart and very, very confident” person who “reacts quickly and has excellent abilities of recall.” Zhao is the president of Garena. Li has kept Zhao by his side since the company's inception. Li is unlike Alibaba's Jack Ma and prefers to keep a&nbsp;modest&nbsp;profile. Still, his team's execution has been nothing short of outstanding, and we see no reason to think otherwise moving forward for this founder-led company.</p>\n<p><b>Keep a Close Watch on Shopee's Adj. EBITDA</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/070f4ed8c5f05a52744d9e20681865ce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Quarterly Adj. EBITDA. Data source: Company filings</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a03828e68bf8d41a26be65d7ac633670\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Quarterly Adj. EBITDA by segments. Data source: Company filings</span></p>\n<p>Of particular concern, though, is that the company's Adj. EBITDA turned negative for the first time since Q2'20 as the increase in Adj. EBITDA losses from Shopee were greater than what Garena could cover in Q2'21. Investors should be able to glean from the second chart where it shows that Shopee's Adj. EBITDA losses increased to $679.77M in Q2'21, representing a 64.8% QoQ increase, while Garena's Adj. EBITDA only managed a 3.3% QoQ increase in Q2'21.</p>\n<p>Despite this observation, the company highlighted that its Malaysia market had turned Adj. EBITDA profitable, joining its Taiwan market. Therefore, we believe the huge increase in burn rate for Shopee is likely in its largest markets by gross merchandise value (GMV), such as Indonesia and Thailand. The company also alluded to this in its earnings call as it emphasized:</p>\n<blockquote>\n And in terms of sales and marketing&nbsp;and related to competitive dynamics, I think we are -- again, as we discussed it before, given our strong market leadership, we're in a good position now that our sales and marketing is more driven by our view about the efficiency of investment into various markets at various points of time, for example, any shopping event season, any particular opportunities to promote the brand, et cetera...\n <i>And in terms of the cash burn...as we look at the market opportunities, the timing of the market, for example, in Q2, we have Ramadan season in our several largest markets including Indonesia.</i>And this is a time where investment into the growth and to promote e-commerce adoption is very efficient. We have increased our buy frequency overall to more than 6x a month.\n <i>And in Indonesia, it has exceeded 7x per month, which we believe is very healthy for a marketplace platform.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3151acc225456e4078f859b16c1cb114\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Shopee Indonesia 76th Independence Day poster (Shopee ada untuk Indonesia: Shopee is for Indonesia). Source: Shopee Indonesia LinkedIn</span></p>\n<p>Now, we emphasized Ramadan (which is not exclusive to Indonesia per se) because it's a massive annual event in Indonesia. We had a sojourn in Jakarta, Indonesia, for a year, and we can tell you it's one of the most important highlights in Indonesia's annual calendar. Therefore, we cannot further underscore the opportunities to boost sales during this important event. It shows that Shopee's management clearly understands its most important market very well, and Shopee also aligned its progress with Indonesia's progress as the country celebrated its 76th Independence Day on 17 Aug 21, as Shopee Indonesia reminded Indonesians that<i>\"Shopee is for Indonesia.\"</i></p>\n<p>Shopee Indonesia has quickly moved onto its next big 9.9 shopping event, and this time around, they recruited well-known Indonesian actor and martial artist Joe Taslim, who starred in the recent Mortal Kombat film as Sub-Zero. For readers familiar with Shopee's advertising strategy, the company often stars well-known local artists in its promotional campaigns. The ads are often quirky and dramatic, which helps capture the users' attention very easily and is often memorable. This recipe has served Shopee very well, and somehow its keen regional competitors such as Lazada and Tokopedia have found it difficult to emulate. We encourage investors and readers to continue keeping a close watch on Shopee's most important market moving forward.</p>\n<p>Therefore, while observing quarterly Adj. EBITDA moving back into negative territory wasn't exactly a welcome development; we need to consider the context. In Shopee's case, it was certainly an opportunity that they needed to undertake to take full advantage of the opportunity to boost sales during the important Ramadan festival which is mainly celebrated in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore. Therefore, we wouldn't be too concerned over a quarter's development and start to be worried, but instead, we should continue to monitor Shopee's Adj. EBITDA's development over the next few quarters, and give the company some space to execute its e-commerce strategies.</p>\n<p><b>Watch for Advertising's Share of Revenue</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aad9a6a626381510c8e2399b70a4d7ea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Shopee Adj. EBITDA per order. Data source: Company filings</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72fa0e85e8eb2ba3d4eb65c68e2f68f3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Shopee quarterly take rate. Data source: Company filings</span></p>\n<p>As a result of Shoppe's increased Adj. EBITDA losses due to its heavier burn rate for Q2'21, we observed Shopee's Adj. EBITDA loss per order regressed to $0.41, from $0.38 in Q1'21. However, readers should note that this only represented a 7.9% QoQ increase, which is certainly much lower than the 64.8% QoQ increase in total Adj. EBITDA losses. This clearly shows that Shopee is benefiting from greater scale efficiencies, despite the larger burn rate due to the heavier investments in the quarter. In addition, the Adj. EBITDA loss per order was also not \"that bad,\" as it was still in line with Q4'20's metric. Moreover, we have certainly seen worse days, and this was nothing spectacular.</p>\n<p>Importantly, we noticed a marked and consistent improvement in Shopee's take rate for Q2'21 as it improved to 6.7% compared to 6.1% in Q1'21. Sea Limited was very clear on its earnings call where this improvement was mainly attributed to as it emphasized: \"This deepening monetization was driven mainly by<i>growing merchant investments in marketing and advertisement on the Shopee platform</i>to attract better and serve buyers.\"</p>\n<p>We think this is a critical development in Shopee's progress as it continues to scale rapidly. For example, in our recent Amazon article, we showed just how massive the advertising opportunity is for the company as it's now Amazon's fastest-growing revenue driver, and 90% of its ad revenue is centered on its e-commerce marketplace.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0d892ee4f3fa12a1d7c862ecf56cf3b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Shopee quarterly sales &amp; marketing (S&amp;M) margin. Data source: Company filings</span></p>\n<p>Therefore, even though we saw a marked increase in Shopee's S&amp;M margin from 49% in Q1'21 to 56.2% in Q2'21 (14.7% QoQ increase), we encourage investors to consider the company's overall Adj. EBITDA per order, which shows that the company has tremendous leverage to engage in aggressive marketing activities through better monetization in Shopee's platform.</p>\n<p><b>Garena's Bookings Growth Seems to Be Slowing Down</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1b13b4908d9a6b7a2ebd889cf4fc198\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Garena bookings. Data source: Company filings</span></p>\n<p>The company reported a fantastic quarter for Garena again as it topped several charts. Sea highlighted that Garena's Free Fire continues to maintain incredible momentum in Southeast Asia, LatAm, and India as the highest-grossing game. In the US, Free Fire was \"ranked the highest-grossing mobile battle royale game for the past two quarters based on App Annie. Additionally, Free Fire was the second highest-grossing mobile game in the U.S. on Google Play across all games categories in the second quarter as well.\"</p>\n<p>While this is certainly impressive, we prefer to look at the global perspective on how Free Fire has performed against its peers. According to&nbsp;Sensor Tower&nbsp;data for H1'21, while Free Fire is the #2 top gross gaming app behind Moon Active's Coin Master on Google Play, it ranked only #8 in overall revenue when we included the App Store's top-grossing gaming apps such as Tencent's(OTCPK:TCEHY)Honor of Kings (#1 overall) and PUBG Mobile battle-royale game (#2 overall), and also Roblox (#4 overall)(NYSE:RBLX). Therefore, while Free Fire has been doing well in markets where the Android operating system (OS) is dominant, it hasn't performed quite as well in North America, where iOS is the leading OS (as we showed in our Digital Turbine(NASDAQ:APPS)article appendedhere). The US is the largest and the most important mobile gaming market, as it accounted for28%of the mobile gaming market share in 2020. Garena has never been a strong performer on iOS, and if the company can improve its performance in the App Store, the boost could be tremendous to Garena.</p>\n<p>While the company's bookings for Q2'21 remain strong as it posted a QoQ increase of 9.1% to $1.2B from $1.1B in Q1'21, the company only raised the guidance from $4.5B to $4.7B in bookings for FY21. When we consider H1'21's collective bookings of $2.3B, the company is therefore expecting H2'21 bookings to come in at $2.3B, which means they aren't expecting any material growth in bookings for the rest of the year as compared to H1'21. This was also picked up by one of the analysts on the conference call, and Group Chief Corporate Officer Yanjun Wang reminded:</p>\n<blockquote>\n We believe the overall guidance showed a more than 40% year-on-year growth compared to last year, which is also a record year for us with the commencement of lockdown. And I think this is a very strong performance already. And our focus, as you can tell from game and the metrics we have indicated as well as our views in terms of how to grow our gaming platform,\n <i>is to continue to first and foremost to grow our user base and also pay user base</i>across the various markets in the world as we continue to see strong potential growth. (from Q2'21 earnings call)\n</blockquote>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e708cd17fe0c5aaf6c51772d63f48fd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Quarter paying users (QPU) / Quarterly active users (QAU). Data source: Company filings</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5f5b4c4cef797d04f34591d7cb7ea08\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Average Booking Per User (ABPU) and Average Booking Per Paying User (ABPPU)). Data source: Company filings</span></p>\n<p>The company's bookings trends can certainly be observed on a per-user or per paying user basis. The ABPPU has certainly been trending down, which reflects a drop in monetization per paying user, which is important as paying users are the ones that generate revenue for Garena. However, we didn't really observe a meaningful drop in the ABPU trend, despite the drop in ABPPU. This shows that even though there is \"less meat\" per paying user, newly minted paying users have been supporting the bookings, which we can certainly observe from the first chart where the QPU / QAU ratio has been consistently increasing, indicating that Garena has been getting better at converting and monetizing its huge non-paying users base. We think this is of huge significance when we consider that only 12.7% of users are paying users as of Q2'21, leaving the company massive opportunities to continue \"working its magic\" on monetizing the non-paying users. On this matter, Sea Limited was unabashed as it emphasized: \"...Our past track record has shown that we're generally good at commercialization in even markets that are known to be difficult for commercialization. So we don't really worry about not being able to commercialize the content down the road. But our focus continues to be growing the user base and making this an even larger platform that allows us to really tap on into it to build a stronger game ecosystem with very strong social elements in it.\"</p>\n<p><b>Building up eSports as a Social Platform</b></p>\n<p>We shared in our previous deep dive on Garena (link to the article is appendedhere), where Garena's ambitions are beyond just a mobile gaming app. The company has huge ambitions, and they have already been using eSports as the basis to build the community for its gamers and developing it into a social platform that perhaps is similar to what Roblox has advanced. Garena has already highlighted previously its ambitions on building this cohesive and broad social community as it emphasized:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>...developingit into a social platform</i>where people not only come to play the core gameplay, but also enjoy other modes: hangout, listen to music, social lives… So our focus is to continue to promote a massive-based online platform and online community and provide them with content and opportunities for socializing engagement, try out different modes of games, try out different characters, avatars or having different ways of playing.\n</blockquote>\n<p>The revenue in global eSports is not that significant as it's only expected to reach $1.62B by 2024, as we highlighted in our Garena article. Still, the whole strategic intent is to build the all-encompassing social platform that will drive incredible engagement, platform stickiness beyond what a typical gaming app can do. Importantly, the company is also headquartered in Singapore, where the Singapore government is focused on building the global hub for eSports, as Southeast Asia is expected to be the fastest-growing region for eSports, and the city-state recently opened a huge 12,000-sqft eSports experience center, as the Singapore Tourism Board emphasized:</p>\n<blockquote>\n Our world-class events&nbsp;and digital infrastructure have also made Singapore an attractive location for the industry to hold gaming and e-sports events here. The government will continue to support companies as they push boundaries through experimenting with new and immersive content formats and business models, as well as level up the quality of our local talent to become leading creators of world-class content.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Garena also recently brought in \"globally renowned DJs&nbsp;Dimitri Vegas &amp; Like Mike, Alok, and KSHMR for Free Fire’s 4th-anniversary theme song, ‘Reunion,’\" following successful strategies adopted by Roblox in its metaverse development, and we think Garena is really still very early in its opportunity to develop its own metaverse.</p>\n<p><b>Sea Limited Stakes Its Claim On MercadoLibre's LatAm Leadership</b></p>\n<p>Without a doubt, the one that generates the most interest is the company's foray into LatAm, which Sea Limited recently updated that it has seen tremendous progress. We did a deep dive recently on this topic, and we encourage you to refer to our articlehere. While we think MercadoLibre(NASDAQ:MELI)is the undisputed e-commerce and FinTech leader in LatAm, especially in LatAm's most important market: Brazil, Shopee's progress has been truly remarkable as it's now the #2 ranked e-commerce app in downloads in Brazil according to App Annie. However, although Shopee is surely making meaningful headway in Brazil, MELI is a different competitor than Tokopedia and Lazada. MELI understands LatAm's e-commerce space comprehensively and has a very impressive logistics and fulfillment network that is second to none in LatAm's notoriously challenging logistics infrastructure. Sea Limited also noted this, but the company thinks that it will be able to overcome these difficulties as it continues to invest in LatAm, which will help these third-party logistics providers to improve their efficiencies and competencies over time and close the gap with MELI as SE emphasized:</p>\n<blockquote>\n ...There hasn't been a lot of volume or traffic broadly generated across different platforms, then probably there is also a lack of initial growth opportunity for logistics. But on the one hand, we are also hopeful that with the growing e-commerce scene in the region and more focus of our global investors into the growth opportunities in the region, we may also see similar trends in those markets. And this is hopefully some contribution we can make to the market in terms of bringing more opportunities, bringing more digitization as well as e-commerce ecosystem that helps not just growth of Shopee but also growth of the surrounding services, including 3PLs within the region. And we've been partnering with 3PLs in our region very successfully in growing the e-commerce ecosystem. And at the same time, these third-party partners also enjoy the very strong growth on their end as well and the close partnership with Shopee. We are very happy to continue to adopt that model going forward in Brazil or the new markets as well. (from Q2'21 earnings call)\n</blockquote>\n<p>We have indeed seen this great partnership between Shopee and its logistics partners in Southeast Asia, so much so that one of its key logistics partners in Indonesia:J&amp;T Express, is on track for its own IPO either in Hong Kong or the US. Therefore, while MELI certainly has the important lead in logistics right now, we believe it's only a matter of time the logistics infrastructure in LatAm improves with Shopee's involvement if it is willing to adopt the aggressiveness of its approach with Southeast Asia.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b58c9691ecea1beaa8e7bbec9861713\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>MELI Commerce Take Rate. Data source: Company filings</span></p>\n<p>If we consider MELI's commerce take rate as compared to Shopee's take rate, readers can easily observe the incredible monetization opportunities that are available in LatAm, and we can easily understand why Sea Limited is so keen to carve out MercadoLibre's leadership there because it's just so attractive. We think as Sea Limited gets more aggressive in its marketing in LatAm, MercadoLibre will start to feel the pressure to rein in its lucrative take rate to compete with Shopee's aggressive marketing tactics.</p>\n<p>Shopee has engaged international film star Jackie Chan for its global 9.9 campaign, and its Brazilian version (see above) has received even more views (3.3M) than some of its Asian counterparts that we last surveyed: Indonesia (1.2M views) and Singapore (1.6M views). We think Shopee has the potential to inflict huge damage to MELI's highly lucrative take rate as its Southeast Asian operations have achieved significant scale, and we think they are ready to take on LatAm's e-commerce leader with confidence. Readers should note that Shopee's e-commerce operations are way larger than MELI as Shopee boasts an LTM GMV of $48.8B as compared to MELI LTM GMV of $25.6B.</p>\n<p><b>Valuations Are Never Going to be Cheap</b></p>\n<p>We used a blended comps valuation comprising its EV/Fwd Rev multiples and its EV/Fwd EBITDA multiples using the following companies in the comps set: Amazon, Tencent, Roblox, MercadoLibre, and Square(NYSE:SQ).</p>\n<p>Using an aggressive valuation approach based on FY23 consensus estimates of EBITDA and Revenue, we arrived at an implied fair value of about $336.19 (mid-point) under the EBITDA multiples approach and $352.62 (mid-point) under the Revenue approach. Averaging out those fair values will give us a blended fair value of $344.41, which indicates a potential downside of about 2.5% from its last closing price of $353.36.</p>\n<p>Readers should also note that we have used an aggressive approach and have not considered a reasonable margin of safety. So, in essence, SE stock looks expensive right now, even though we don't expect it to be cheap for a high-quality growth stock like Sea Limited.</p>\n<p><b>SE Stock Price Action and Trend Analysis</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd66ba3ffcdaf31167f72ad7ac24d34c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>SE stock price action (weekly).</span></p>\n<p>The rapid ascent of SE stock has left price action investors with little opportunities to add more exposure. However, we have still taken the opportunities in May to add more exposure to our portfolio and haven't added anymore since.</p>\n<p>While we have not witnessed any indication of a momentum shift in SE stock, we seriously don't think we will even consider adding exposure at this price level, as our aggressive valuation approach has shown us that quite a bit of the optimism has already been priced in. The stock is also starting to show flashes of flush-up price action that are indicative of potential bull-trap scenarios. While the price action has not been resolved yet, we are still monitoring for opportunities to perhaps enter cash-secured puts at more reasonable strike prices relative to the expected premium collected to try and take advantage of SE stock's incredible momentum.</p>\n<p>Hence, we hope that we have demonstrated in our earlier sections that Sea Limited is definitely in the early innings of its market opportunity. Still, the level of optimism in the stock will need some leveling off first so that long-term investors can add exposure at a more reasonable price level.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Sea Limited Stock A Good Buy For The Long-Term?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Sea Limited Stock A Good Buy For The Long-Term?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-08 10:37 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453936-sea-limited-stock-good-buy-long-term><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nSea Limited is a very high-quality growth stock that surprisingly receives less attention than Alibaba, MercadoLibre, and Amazon, even though it has outperformed all of them, hands down.\nWe ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453936-sea-limited-stock-good-buy-long-term\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453936-sea-limited-stock-good-buy-long-term","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120889633","content_text":"Summary\n\nSea Limited is a very high-quality growth stock that surprisingly receives less attention than Alibaba, MercadoLibre, and Amazon, even though it has outperformed all of them, hands down.\nWe help investors understand the key metrics in a useful analytical framework to evaluate Sea Limited's growth opportunities and whether it is worthy of a long-term position.\nLastly, we present our valuation argument to help our readers to decide whether they should add Sea Limited stock right now.\n\nnuttapong/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nSea Limited(NYSE:SE)is one of our core holdings in our growth portfolio and one that we have taken the opportunity to add on major dips in the uptrend over the last year as the stock's incredible momentum saw it easily outperforming its e-commerce peers and mobile gaming peers.\nFor growth investors, Sea's incredible growth trajectory has been truly phenomenal, coupled with it being free of Beijing's oversights that saw its Chinese peers fall like dominoes, stunning even institutional investors with the pace of the government's \"rectification\" adjustments.\nSea's ascent has also been somewhat of a conundrum for value investors, as they don't get how an unprofitable company can be trading at such sky-high valuations without consequences.\nTherefore, to answer whether Sea Limited stock is a good long-term buy for investors, we will show our readers how to apply the appropriate analytical framework and valuation treatment to the company, based on its performance and its projections moving forward, so that investors can make meaningful decisions on whether they think Sea Limited is a worthy long-term addition to their portfolio now.\nFor investors who are new to Sea Limited, we have recently written several articles on the company, which you can refer to them as a preamble.\nSea & Peers' stock YTD performance (as of 3 Sep 21)\nThis year, Sea has been one of our portfolio's leading performers as the stock raced to an 83% YTD lead that easily outperformed all its peers and SPDR S&P 500 ETF(NYSEARCA:SPY). This performance is even more incredible because it came off an outstanding 2020, where it also outperformed with a 392% return.\nWhile the rest of its American and Chinese peers often received more coverage than this Singapore-headquartered company, it has been Sea which has been quietly delivering. It has been executing, expanding its Garena gaming ecosystem, and reaching new milestones. It's been scaling its e-commerce footprint to LatAm and demonstrating to Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN) that they are not experiencing any reopening headwinds. This is in contrast to what Amazon indicated in its recent earnings. The company is also growing its Sea Money footprint, especially through the Shopee/Shopee Pay flywheel, as the company stakes its FinTech leadership ambitions against Southeast Asia's FinTech leader Grab(NASDAQ:AGC).\nAs a result of Sea Limited's incredible success, the group's China-born CEO Forrest Li is also now Singapore's richest man with a net worth of $20.3B.\nSE quant rating (momentum). Source: Seeking Alpha Premium\nWe have always reminded investors that Sea stock is one that you should never bet against even if you are bearish on its long-term prognosis. The stock has made one of the strongest upside moves we have seen for stocks in our growth portfolio. This is also corroborated by Seeking Alpha's proprietary quant momentum rating, giving it the best possible A+ grade on its most recent performance.\nGiven the company and the stock's stupendous performances so far, we think it's only apt that investors ask whether SE's future optimism has been largely priced in, which is especially important for new investors who have yet to add its stock, where we will highlight the analytical framework on how investors can use to consider the company's prospects moving forward.\nMonitor Its Revenue Growth Closely\nSea Limited quarterly revenue. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nSea Limited quarterly revenue YoY growth. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nSea Limited impressed with another awesome quarter of topline growth as total revenue grew 159% YoY on revenue of $2.28B. Its QoQ performance was also remarkable with a 29% QoQ growth, as the company shows that its gangbusters growth knows \"no limit.\"\nSea Limited GAAP quarterly operating margins. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nFor companies like Sea, whose strategy is still focused very much on topline growth and building scale efficiencies in the process, we should not be too concerned with its negative operating margins, as long as the company clearly demonstrated that it could grow rapidly like in Sea's case, and also achieve economies of scale through ramping revenue as it seeks out its \"blue oceans.\" We also articulated this point in a recent article on Snowflake(NYSE:SNOW), which operates in a huge market with a massive opportunity to expand, and the firm has shown that it can execute its strategies very well to capture those revenue opportunities despite having negative operating margins right now.\nTherefore, Sea Limited has certainly struck the right notes here, and we see no cause for concern so far. What matters for investors now is whether the company is still expected to grow this rapidly moving forward.\nSea Limited revenue mean consensus estimates. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nSea Limited consensus revenue estimates revision trend. Source: Seeking Alpha Premium\nReaders should easily glean that the Street upgraded revenue forecasts for the company after Q2's earnings release from what they projected post Q1 earnings. For example, revenue projection for FY21 has been increased by 11.5% to reflect the improved guidance from the company. Even though projections for FY24 to FY25 look rather tepid, readers should note that only three analysts covered the FY24 projections, while only two covered for FY25, compared to the 18-21 analysts who covered FY21 to FY23 numbers. As a result, we will also focus our discussion up to FY23 numbers to keep them meaningful.\nThe expected revenue CAGR from FY20 to FY23 is 59.1%, while it reads 40.1% from FY21 to FY23. Therefore, the market is still expecting Sea Limited to deliver remarkable topline growth rates moving forward.At the same time, we are cautiously optimistic about Sea Limited's future, under the skillful stewardship of Group CEO Forrest Li and his management team. The team includes his two very competent business unit chiefs Chris Feng and Terry Zhao. Feng was born in China and leads Shopee and Sea Money. He is a Stanford alumnus like Li and he was recruited from Lazada(NYSE:BABA)by Li in 2014. Feng is said to be a “very, very smart and very, very confident” person who “reacts quickly and has excellent abilities of recall.” Zhao is the president of Garena. Li has kept Zhao by his side since the company's inception. Li is unlike Alibaba's Jack Ma and prefers to keep a modest profile. Still, his team's execution has been nothing short of outstanding, and we see no reason to think otherwise moving forward for this founder-led company.\nKeep a Close Watch on Shopee's Adj. EBITDA\nQuarterly Adj. EBITDA. Data source: Company filings\nQuarterly Adj. EBITDA by segments. Data source: Company filings\nOf particular concern, though, is that the company's Adj. EBITDA turned negative for the first time since Q2'20 as the increase in Adj. EBITDA losses from Shopee were greater than what Garena could cover in Q2'21. Investors should be able to glean from the second chart where it shows that Shopee's Adj. EBITDA losses increased to $679.77M in Q2'21, representing a 64.8% QoQ increase, while Garena's Adj. EBITDA only managed a 3.3% QoQ increase in Q2'21.\nDespite this observation, the company highlighted that its Malaysia market had turned Adj. EBITDA profitable, joining its Taiwan market. Therefore, we believe the huge increase in burn rate for Shopee is likely in its largest markets by gross merchandise value (GMV), such as Indonesia and Thailand. The company also alluded to this in its earnings call as it emphasized:\n\n And in terms of sales and marketing and related to competitive dynamics, I think we are -- again, as we discussed it before, given our strong market leadership, we're in a good position now that our sales and marketing is more driven by our view about the efficiency of investment into various markets at various points of time, for example, any shopping event season, any particular opportunities to promote the brand, et cetera...\n And in terms of the cash burn...as we look at the market opportunities, the timing of the market, for example, in Q2, we have Ramadan season in our several largest markets including Indonesia.And this is a time where investment into the growth and to promote e-commerce adoption is very efficient. We have increased our buy frequency overall to more than 6x a month.\n And in Indonesia, it has exceeded 7x per month, which we believe is very healthy for a marketplace platform.\n\nShopee Indonesia 76th Independence Day poster (Shopee ada untuk Indonesia: Shopee is for Indonesia). Source: Shopee Indonesia LinkedIn\nNow, we emphasized Ramadan (which is not exclusive to Indonesia per se) because it's a massive annual event in Indonesia. We had a sojourn in Jakarta, Indonesia, for a year, and we can tell you it's one of the most important highlights in Indonesia's annual calendar. Therefore, we cannot further underscore the opportunities to boost sales during this important event. It shows that Shopee's management clearly understands its most important market very well, and Shopee also aligned its progress with Indonesia's progress as the country celebrated its 76th Independence Day on 17 Aug 21, as Shopee Indonesia reminded Indonesians that\"Shopee is for Indonesia.\"\nShopee Indonesia has quickly moved onto its next big 9.9 shopping event, and this time around, they recruited well-known Indonesian actor and martial artist Joe Taslim, who starred in the recent Mortal Kombat film as Sub-Zero. For readers familiar with Shopee's advertising strategy, the company often stars well-known local artists in its promotional campaigns. The ads are often quirky and dramatic, which helps capture the users' attention very easily and is often memorable. This recipe has served Shopee very well, and somehow its keen regional competitors such as Lazada and Tokopedia have found it difficult to emulate. We encourage investors and readers to continue keeping a close watch on Shopee's most important market moving forward.\nTherefore, while observing quarterly Adj. EBITDA moving back into negative territory wasn't exactly a welcome development; we need to consider the context. In Shopee's case, it was certainly an opportunity that they needed to undertake to take full advantage of the opportunity to boost sales during the important Ramadan festival which is mainly celebrated in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore. Therefore, we wouldn't be too concerned over a quarter's development and start to be worried, but instead, we should continue to monitor Shopee's Adj. EBITDA's development over the next few quarters, and give the company some space to execute its e-commerce strategies.\nWatch for Advertising's Share of Revenue\nShopee Adj. EBITDA per order. Data source: Company filings\nShopee quarterly take rate. Data source: Company filings\nAs a result of Shoppe's increased Adj. EBITDA losses due to its heavier burn rate for Q2'21, we observed Shopee's Adj. EBITDA loss per order regressed to $0.41, from $0.38 in Q1'21. However, readers should note that this only represented a 7.9% QoQ increase, which is certainly much lower than the 64.8% QoQ increase in total Adj. EBITDA losses. This clearly shows that Shopee is benefiting from greater scale efficiencies, despite the larger burn rate due to the heavier investments in the quarter. In addition, the Adj. EBITDA loss per order was also not \"that bad,\" as it was still in line with Q4'20's metric. Moreover, we have certainly seen worse days, and this was nothing spectacular.\nImportantly, we noticed a marked and consistent improvement in Shopee's take rate for Q2'21 as it improved to 6.7% compared to 6.1% in Q1'21. Sea Limited was very clear on its earnings call where this improvement was mainly attributed to as it emphasized: \"This deepening monetization was driven mainly bygrowing merchant investments in marketing and advertisement on the Shopee platformto attract better and serve buyers.\"\nWe think this is a critical development in Shopee's progress as it continues to scale rapidly. For example, in our recent Amazon article, we showed just how massive the advertising opportunity is for the company as it's now Amazon's fastest-growing revenue driver, and 90% of its ad revenue is centered on its e-commerce marketplace.\nShopee quarterly sales & marketing (S&M) margin. Data source: Company filings\nTherefore, even though we saw a marked increase in Shopee's S&M margin from 49% in Q1'21 to 56.2% in Q2'21 (14.7% QoQ increase), we encourage investors to consider the company's overall Adj. EBITDA per order, which shows that the company has tremendous leverage to engage in aggressive marketing activities through better monetization in Shopee's platform.\nGarena's Bookings Growth Seems to Be Slowing Down\nGarena bookings. Data source: Company filings\nThe company reported a fantastic quarter for Garena again as it topped several charts. Sea highlighted that Garena's Free Fire continues to maintain incredible momentum in Southeast Asia, LatAm, and India as the highest-grossing game. In the US, Free Fire was \"ranked the highest-grossing mobile battle royale game for the past two quarters based on App Annie. Additionally, Free Fire was the second highest-grossing mobile game in the U.S. on Google Play across all games categories in the second quarter as well.\"\nWhile this is certainly impressive, we prefer to look at the global perspective on how Free Fire has performed against its peers. According to Sensor Tower data for H1'21, while Free Fire is the #2 top gross gaming app behind Moon Active's Coin Master on Google Play, it ranked only #8 in overall revenue when we included the App Store's top-grossing gaming apps such as Tencent's(OTCPK:TCEHY)Honor of Kings (#1 overall) and PUBG Mobile battle-royale game (#2 overall), and also Roblox (#4 overall)(NYSE:RBLX). Therefore, while Free Fire has been doing well in markets where the Android operating system (OS) is dominant, it hasn't performed quite as well in North America, where iOS is the leading OS (as we showed in our Digital Turbine(NASDAQ:APPS)article appendedhere). The US is the largest and the most important mobile gaming market, as it accounted for28%of the mobile gaming market share in 2020. Garena has never been a strong performer on iOS, and if the company can improve its performance in the App Store, the boost could be tremendous to Garena.\nWhile the company's bookings for Q2'21 remain strong as it posted a QoQ increase of 9.1% to $1.2B from $1.1B in Q1'21, the company only raised the guidance from $4.5B to $4.7B in bookings for FY21. When we consider H1'21's collective bookings of $2.3B, the company is therefore expecting H2'21 bookings to come in at $2.3B, which means they aren't expecting any material growth in bookings for the rest of the year as compared to H1'21. This was also picked up by one of the analysts on the conference call, and Group Chief Corporate Officer Yanjun Wang reminded:\n\n We believe the overall guidance showed a more than 40% year-on-year growth compared to last year, which is also a record year for us with the commencement of lockdown. And I think this is a very strong performance already. And our focus, as you can tell from game and the metrics we have indicated as well as our views in terms of how to grow our gaming platform,\n is to continue to first and foremost to grow our user base and also pay user baseacross the various markets in the world as we continue to see strong potential growth. (from Q2'21 earnings call)\n\nQuarter paying users (QPU) / Quarterly active users (QAU). Data source: Company filings\nAverage Booking Per User (ABPU) and Average Booking Per Paying User (ABPPU)). Data source: Company filings\nThe company's bookings trends can certainly be observed on a per-user or per paying user basis. The ABPPU has certainly been trending down, which reflects a drop in monetization per paying user, which is important as paying users are the ones that generate revenue for Garena. However, we didn't really observe a meaningful drop in the ABPU trend, despite the drop in ABPPU. This shows that even though there is \"less meat\" per paying user, newly minted paying users have been supporting the bookings, which we can certainly observe from the first chart where the QPU / QAU ratio has been consistently increasing, indicating that Garena has been getting better at converting and monetizing its huge non-paying users base. We think this is of huge significance when we consider that only 12.7% of users are paying users as of Q2'21, leaving the company massive opportunities to continue \"working its magic\" on monetizing the non-paying users. On this matter, Sea Limited was unabashed as it emphasized: \"...Our past track record has shown that we're generally good at commercialization in even markets that are known to be difficult for commercialization. So we don't really worry about not being able to commercialize the content down the road. But our focus continues to be growing the user base and making this an even larger platform that allows us to really tap on into it to build a stronger game ecosystem with very strong social elements in it.\"\nBuilding up eSports as a Social Platform\nWe shared in our previous deep dive on Garena (link to the article is appendedhere), where Garena's ambitions are beyond just a mobile gaming app. The company has huge ambitions, and they have already been using eSports as the basis to build the community for its gamers and developing it into a social platform that perhaps is similar to what Roblox has advanced. Garena has already highlighted previously its ambitions on building this cohesive and broad social community as it emphasized:\n\n...developingit into a social platformwhere people not only come to play the core gameplay, but also enjoy other modes: hangout, listen to music, social lives… So our focus is to continue to promote a massive-based online platform and online community and provide them with content and opportunities for socializing engagement, try out different modes of games, try out different characters, avatars or having different ways of playing.\n\nThe revenue in global eSports is not that significant as it's only expected to reach $1.62B by 2024, as we highlighted in our Garena article. Still, the whole strategic intent is to build the all-encompassing social platform that will drive incredible engagement, platform stickiness beyond what a typical gaming app can do. Importantly, the company is also headquartered in Singapore, where the Singapore government is focused on building the global hub for eSports, as Southeast Asia is expected to be the fastest-growing region for eSports, and the city-state recently opened a huge 12,000-sqft eSports experience center, as the Singapore Tourism Board emphasized:\n\n Our world-class events and digital infrastructure have also made Singapore an attractive location for the industry to hold gaming and e-sports events here. The government will continue to support companies as they push boundaries through experimenting with new and immersive content formats and business models, as well as level up the quality of our local talent to become leading creators of world-class content.\n\nGarena also recently brought in \"globally renowned DJs Dimitri Vegas & Like Mike, Alok, and KSHMR for Free Fire’s 4th-anniversary theme song, ‘Reunion,’\" following successful strategies adopted by Roblox in its metaverse development, and we think Garena is really still very early in its opportunity to develop its own metaverse.\nSea Limited Stakes Its Claim On MercadoLibre's LatAm Leadership\nWithout a doubt, the one that generates the most interest is the company's foray into LatAm, which Sea Limited recently updated that it has seen tremendous progress. We did a deep dive recently on this topic, and we encourage you to refer to our articlehere. While we think MercadoLibre(NASDAQ:MELI)is the undisputed e-commerce and FinTech leader in LatAm, especially in LatAm's most important market: Brazil, Shopee's progress has been truly remarkable as it's now the #2 ranked e-commerce app in downloads in Brazil according to App Annie. However, although Shopee is surely making meaningful headway in Brazil, MELI is a different competitor than Tokopedia and Lazada. MELI understands LatAm's e-commerce space comprehensively and has a very impressive logistics and fulfillment network that is second to none in LatAm's notoriously challenging logistics infrastructure. Sea Limited also noted this, but the company thinks that it will be able to overcome these difficulties as it continues to invest in LatAm, which will help these third-party logistics providers to improve their efficiencies and competencies over time and close the gap with MELI as SE emphasized:\n\n ...There hasn't been a lot of volume or traffic broadly generated across different platforms, then probably there is also a lack of initial growth opportunity for logistics. But on the one hand, we are also hopeful that with the growing e-commerce scene in the region and more focus of our global investors into the growth opportunities in the region, we may also see similar trends in those markets. And this is hopefully some contribution we can make to the market in terms of bringing more opportunities, bringing more digitization as well as e-commerce ecosystem that helps not just growth of Shopee but also growth of the surrounding services, including 3PLs within the region. And we've been partnering with 3PLs in our region very successfully in growing the e-commerce ecosystem. And at the same time, these third-party partners also enjoy the very strong growth on their end as well and the close partnership with Shopee. We are very happy to continue to adopt that model going forward in Brazil or the new markets as well. (from Q2'21 earnings call)\n\nWe have indeed seen this great partnership between Shopee and its logistics partners in Southeast Asia, so much so that one of its key logistics partners in Indonesia:J&T Express, is on track for its own IPO either in Hong Kong or the US. Therefore, while MELI certainly has the important lead in logistics right now, we believe it's only a matter of time the logistics infrastructure in LatAm improves with Shopee's involvement if it is willing to adopt the aggressiveness of its approach with Southeast Asia.\nMELI Commerce Take Rate. Data source: Company filings\nIf we consider MELI's commerce take rate as compared to Shopee's take rate, readers can easily observe the incredible monetization opportunities that are available in LatAm, and we can easily understand why Sea Limited is so keen to carve out MercadoLibre's leadership there because it's just so attractive. We think as Sea Limited gets more aggressive in its marketing in LatAm, MercadoLibre will start to feel the pressure to rein in its lucrative take rate to compete with Shopee's aggressive marketing tactics.\nShopee has engaged international film star Jackie Chan for its global 9.9 campaign, and its Brazilian version (see above) has received even more views (3.3M) than some of its Asian counterparts that we last surveyed: Indonesia (1.2M views) and Singapore (1.6M views). We think Shopee has the potential to inflict huge damage to MELI's highly lucrative take rate as its Southeast Asian operations have achieved significant scale, and we think they are ready to take on LatAm's e-commerce leader with confidence. Readers should note that Shopee's e-commerce operations are way larger than MELI as Shopee boasts an LTM GMV of $48.8B as compared to MELI LTM GMV of $25.6B.\nValuations Are Never Going to be Cheap\nWe used a blended comps valuation comprising its EV/Fwd Rev multiples and its EV/Fwd EBITDA multiples using the following companies in the comps set: Amazon, Tencent, Roblox, MercadoLibre, and Square(NYSE:SQ).\nUsing an aggressive valuation approach based on FY23 consensus estimates of EBITDA and Revenue, we arrived at an implied fair value of about $336.19 (mid-point) under the EBITDA multiples approach and $352.62 (mid-point) under the Revenue approach. Averaging out those fair values will give us a blended fair value of $344.41, which indicates a potential downside of about 2.5% from its last closing price of $353.36.\nReaders should also note that we have used an aggressive approach and have not considered a reasonable margin of safety. So, in essence, SE stock looks expensive right now, even though we don't expect it to be cheap for a high-quality growth stock like Sea Limited.\nSE Stock Price Action and Trend Analysis\nSE stock price action (weekly).\nThe rapid ascent of SE stock has left price action investors with little opportunities to add more exposure. However, we have still taken the opportunities in May to add more exposure to our portfolio and haven't added anymore since.\nWhile we have not witnessed any indication of a momentum shift in SE stock, we seriously don't think we will even consider adding exposure at this price level, as our aggressive valuation approach has shown us that quite a bit of the optimism has already been priced in. The stock is also starting to show flashes of flush-up price action that are indicative of potential bull-trap scenarios. While the price action has not been resolved yet, we are still monitoring for opportunities to perhaps enter cash-secured puts at more reasonable strike prices relative to the expected premium collected to try and take advantage of SE stock's incredible momentum.\nHence, we hope that we have demonstrated in our earlier sections that Sea Limited is definitely in the early innings of its market opportunity. Still, the level of optimism in the stock will need some leveling off first so that long-term investors can add exposure at a more reasonable price level.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":317,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817460778,"gmtCreate":1630980912894,"gmtModify":1676530433667,"author":{"id":"3554723558168801","authorId":"3554723558168801","name":"DylanX","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9cece583c7a795a8ce48d0e39d630693","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554723558168801","authorIdStr":"3554723558168801"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/817460778","repostId":"1154766595","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154766595","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630978701,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1154766595?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-07 09:38","market":"sh","language":"en","title":"Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has scored a $2 billion gain on BYD stock this year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154766595","media":"Business  insider","summary":"Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has made a $2 billion gain on BYD this year.\nBerkshire spent $23","content":"<ul>\n <li>Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has made a $2 billion gain on BYD this year.</li>\n <li>Berkshire spent $232 million in 2008 for a stake in the automaker worth nearly $8 billion today.</li>\n <li>The Chinese group's sales of electric and hybrid vehicles rose by over 300% year-on-year in August.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Warren Buffett's&nbsp;Berkshire Hathaway&nbsp;has racked up a $2 billion gain onBYDstock this year, boosting the value of its bet on the Chinese electric-vehicle company to almost $8 billion - a 3,400% gain on its investment in under 13 years.</p>\n<p>The famed investor's company spent $232 million to buy 225 million shares of BYD in 2008. Its stake was worth $5.9 billion at the end of last year, Berkshire's&nbsp;latest annual report shows. Yet BYD's stock price has surged by about 23% since then, lifting the value of Berkshire's roughly 8% stake to $7.9 billion.</p>\n<p>BYD's Hong Kong-listed shares climbed 8% on Monday alone after the automaker revealed its sales of passenger vehicles more than quadrupled year-on-year to 60,500 units in August. It sold a total of 261,000 passenger vehicles in the first eight months of this year - more than triple the 85,000 it sold in the same period of 2020.</p>\n<p>The robust sales growth reflected a 125% rise in sales of fully electric vehicles to 149,000 units in the first eight months of this year, along with a 485% increase in sales of plug-in hybrids to 112,000 units. In contrast, BYD's sales of gas-powered vehicles dropped 22% to 106,000 units during that period.</p>\n<p>Buffett's business partner and Berkshire's vice-chairman, Charlie Munger, has&nbsp;repeatedly sung BYD's praises&nbsp;since he first brought the company to Buffett's attention. For example, he described BYD's founder and CEO, Wang Chuanfu, as a mixture of inventor Thomas Edison and former GE boss Jack Welch in a&nbsp;Fortune interview&nbsp;in 2009.</p>\n<p>Munger has been right about BYD's prospects so far. The company has grown its revenue by nearly six-fold to the equivalent of $24 billion since Berkshire invested, and more than tripled its net income to around $1 billion.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has scored a $2 billion gain on BYD stock this year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWarren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has scored a $2 billion gain on BYD stock this year\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-07 09:38 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-byd-stock-electric-vehicles-batteries-transportation-2021-9><strong>Business  insider</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has made a $2 billion gain on BYD this year.\nBerkshire spent $232 million in 2008 for a stake in the automaker worth nearly $8 billion today.\nThe Chinese group's ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-byd-stock-electric-vehicles-batteries-transportation-2021-9\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","002594":"比亚迪","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","01211":"比亚迪股份"},"source_url":"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-byd-stock-electric-vehicles-batteries-transportation-2021-9","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154766595","content_text":"Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has made a $2 billion gain on BYD this year.\nBerkshire spent $232 million in 2008 for a stake in the automaker worth nearly $8 billion today.\nThe Chinese group's sales of electric and hybrid vehicles rose by over 300% year-on-year in August.\n\nWarren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has racked up a $2 billion gain onBYDstock this year, boosting the value of its bet on the Chinese electric-vehicle company to almost $8 billion - a 3,400% gain on its investment in under 13 years.\nThe famed investor's company spent $232 million to buy 225 million shares of BYD in 2008. Its stake was worth $5.9 billion at the end of last year, Berkshire's latest annual report shows. Yet BYD's stock price has surged by about 23% since then, lifting the value of Berkshire's roughly 8% stake to $7.9 billion.\nBYD's Hong Kong-listed shares climbed 8% on Monday alone after the automaker revealed its sales of passenger vehicles more than quadrupled year-on-year to 60,500 units in August. It sold a total of 261,000 passenger vehicles in the first eight months of this year - more than triple the 85,000 it sold in the same period of 2020.\nThe robust sales growth reflected a 125% rise in sales of fully electric vehicles to 149,000 units in the first eight months of this year, along with a 485% increase in sales of plug-in hybrids to 112,000 units. In contrast, BYD's sales of gas-powered vehicles dropped 22% to 106,000 units during that period.\nBuffett's business partner and Berkshire's vice-chairman, Charlie Munger, has repeatedly sung BYD's praises since he first brought the company to Buffett's attention. For example, he described BYD's founder and CEO, Wang Chuanfu, as a mixture of inventor Thomas Edison and former GE boss Jack Welch in a Fortune interview in 2009.\nMunger has been right about BYD's prospects so far. The company has grown its revenue by nearly six-fold to the equivalent of $24 billion since Berkshire invested, and more than tripled its net income to around $1 billion.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":484,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817924375,"gmtCreate":1630899587797,"gmtModify":1676530416048,"author":{"id":"3554723558168801","authorId":"3554723558168801","name":"DylanX","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9cece583c7a795a8ce48d0e39d630693","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554723558168801","authorIdStr":"3554723558168801"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hopefully it is good&nbsp;","listText":"Hopefully it is good&nbsp;","text":"Hopefully it is good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/817924375","repostId":"1103617448","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1103617448","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630893800,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1103617448?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-06 10:03","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"北京证券交易所来了！谁的“大肉”，谁的“汤”？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103617448","media":"海清FICC频道","summary":"9月2日晚，中央宣布将深化新三板改革，设立北京证券交易所，打造服务创新型中小企业主阵地。\n一、设立北京证券交易所是大国博弈、“科技兴邦”的战略抉择\n当前，一场以数字经济、芯片、人工智能、新能源技术、太","content":"<p>9月2日晚，中央宣布将深化新三板改革，设立北京证券交易所，打造服务创新型中小企业主阵地。</p>\n<p><b>一、设立北京证券交易所是大国博弈、“科技兴邦”的战略抉择</b></p>\n<p>当前，一场以数字经济、芯片、人工智能、新能源技术、太空探索技术、生物医药技术为引领的科技革命正在到来。</p>\n<p><b>在中国经济高质量发展、产业转型升级和全球产业竞争中，科技创新的竞争是核心。</b>中国能否在这一场科技竞争中取得先发优势，不仅仅决定了中国能否解决关键技术“卡脖子”的短期问题，还决定了未来谁是全球产业经济的“领头羊”、21世纪是谁的世纪的长期问题。</p>\n<p><b>从历史上大国崛起的过程来看，科技是根本驱动力：</b></p>\n<p>英国借助蒸汽机的领先优势率先开始了第一次工业革命，成为世界霸主；</p>\n<p>美德在内燃机、电气化领域弯道超车超过英国，引领了第二次工业革命，取代了英国的地位；</p>\n<p>二战后美国在原子能、生物医药、航空航天、计算机等领域引领了第三次工业革命，进一步巩固了其全球科技领头羊地位和世界霸主地位。</p>\n<p><b>在上世纪八九十年代的美日贸易战中，除了“广场协议”这一表面因素和直接诱因外，美国最终能够胜过日本的关键也在于两国在经济发展驱动力选择上的根本差异：</b></p>\n<p>日本因循传统的主办银行制度，支持传统的大型制造业企业和房地产行业发展，其金融体制不适应科技创新的需要。在广场协议后，日元升值、出口受挫，日本更是直接通过货币大放水刺激起股市泡沫和房市泡沫，催生出“虚假的繁荣”。</p>\n<p>美国通过纳斯达克市场为科技创新企业提供便利的融资环境，硅谷发展起来，培育了一大批后来的互联网企业。</p>\n<p>到了九十年代，日本房市和股市泡沫破裂，经济陷入“失去的二十年”；美国厚积薄发，互联网革命兴起，出现“新经济繁荣”。日本在美日竞争中彻底出局。</p>\n<p><b>大国博弈，科技定乾坤！科技是第一生产力，是大国崛起和全球竞争的关键。</b></p>\n<p><b>金融是实体的血液，科技竞争，金融先行。哪个国家的资本市场更能服务创新，更能为高科技企业融资和发展提供便利，哪个国家的科技创新就更有可能快速进步，同时还能吸引其他国家和地区的高科技企业来本地上市。</b></p>\n<p><b>近年来美国纳斯达克也在不断进行制度创新，为中小科创企业上市提供更便捷的政策机制设计。</b>比如，近年来美国股市出现许多特殊目的收购公司（SPAC），成为许多企业借壳上市的“终南捷径”。其操作模式是：第一步，成立一个SPAC公司，向监管机构申请发股募资，但此时发起人持有的股票只能在限定市场上单独交易；第二步，在18~24个月内，管理团队找到一家可以收购的目标公司，全体股东投票，多数同意后完成收购，合并成新公司，股票就可以正式上市交易。发起人持有的股票等锁定期一过，就可以退出套现。SPAC模式能够让企业在短时间内实现上市，成本也比IPO、买壳上市/借壳上市更低。</p>\n<p><b>如今中国决策层已经彻底下定决心转型，告别以城镇化红利为基础的“房地产+土地财政”旧模式，塑造“硬科技+绿色低碳+支持民企小微”为三大支柱的新增长模式。</b></p>\n<p><b>为承接上述发展战略转型，目前国内需要一个聚焦服务创新型中小企业、承担培育一批专精特新中小企业使命的交易所，北京证券交易所的出现适应了时代的需要，也响应了全球科技竞争的需求。</b></p>\n<p><b>二、北京证券交易所并非“凭空出世”，而是北京长期以来科技创新支持政策内生进化的结果</b></p>\n<p>北京是中国创新企业和金融资源高度集中的城市，纵观北京科技创新领域的政策演进路径可以发现，<b>在每一个重要的历史关口，北京都推出了重大的政策和制度创新：</b></p>\n<p>在上世纪八九十年代，随着美国互联网科技产业兴起，北京建立了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000931\">中关村</a>，成为我国科教智力和人才资源最为密集的区域，被称为“中国硅谷”。</p>\n<p>2006年，中关村科技园区非上市股份公司进入代办转让系统进行股份报价转让，称为“新三板”。</p>\n<p>2020年7月27日，新三板精选层设立暨首批企业晋层仪式在全国股转公司挂牌大厅举行，首批32家公司已全部完成公开发行程序，精选层正式设立并开市交易。</p>\n<p><b>如今，在精选层进行了一年多的试点的基础上，以精选层为基础组建北京证券交易所，可谓“水到渠成”。</b></p>\n<p><b>从北京产业转型升级的方向来看，数字经济、科技创新是重要的支撑，北京证券交易所的设立，对于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00925\">北京建设</a>具有全球影响力的金融中心、科技创新中心具有重大意义。</b></p>\n<p><b>三、北京证券交易所最值得期待的是制度建设能否再做突破创新</b></p>\n<p><b>中国已有沪深两大交易所，设立北京证券交易所的最大看点并不是又多了一家交易所，其最值得期待的是未来还会有哪些制度创新！</b></p>\n<p>此前很长一段时间，中国股市没有实行注册制、无法让同股不同权的企业上市、无法让未盈利的高科技企业上市。科创板的推出解决了注册制的问题，同时为未盈利的高科技企业上市创造了条件。北京证券交易所进一步放宽了创新型中小企业上升的市值、财务条件，企业上市融资更加便捷。</p>\n<p><b>从目前监管披露的信息来看，北京证券交易所的初期规划是新三板的延伸：</b>以现有的新三板精选层为基础组建北京证券交易所，总体平移精选层各项基础制度，坚持北京证券交易所上市公司由创新层公司产生，维持新三板基础层、创新层与北京证券交易所“层层递进”的市场结构，同步试点证券发行注册制。</p>\n<p>此前新三板精选层也设计了向科创板、创业板转板上市的制度，但成功转板上市的企业有限。以现有的新三板精选层为基础组建北京证券交易所，不仅有利于增强新三板挂牌企业股权的流动性和上市渠道，还是为了“打造服务创新型中小企业主阵地”，“培育一批专精特新中小企业”。</p>\n<p><b>从新三板精选层和科创板挂牌/上市的条件和门槛来看，精选层的对企业市值条件、财务条件的要求更加宽松，更有利于中小科创企业的上市。</b></p>\n<p><b>未来北京证券交易所是否能有更多的制度创新？能否进一步推动中国股票市场的改革进程？值得我们期待。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24adac74431844c001244acdf21f3ca0\" tg-width=\"892\" tg-height=\"853\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>四、北京证券交易所的设立将带来PE基金行业的颠覆性变革</b></p>\n<p>北京证券交易所的设立，有利于创新型中小企业上市，活跃股票交易市场，有利于券商承销业务和经纪业务收入增长，因此，周五开盘后券商股集体大涨。</p>\n<p>但我们认为，<b>北京证券交易所的设立对券商股的利好非常有限，充其量也就是喝点“汤”。北京证券交易所设立的最大受益者或者说“吃肉的”是PE/VC基金，一级PE基金黄金时代可期待来临。</b></p>\n<p>过去 PE/VC投资的退出渠道比较匮乏，基本上需要等到被投企业IPO上市后才能顺畅地退出。但以前企业在A股上市门槛高、周期长，而一般的PE基金的存续期限往往只有3—7年。</p>\n<p>为了保证在基金存续期结束时能够顺利退出、给投资人兑现收益，中国的PE基金往往只能陪跑“后半场”，在企业成长到一定规模、能够在较短的时间内上市时才介入；部分企业在中国面临上市难的问题，最后会选择VIE架构去美国或香港上市，让PE基金得以退出。</p>\n<p><b>随着科创板推出、创业板注册制改革、北京证券交易所设立，创新型中小企业上市更加便捷，条件放宽，可以在企业发展的较早阶段上市，能够缓解过去PE基金产品期限和被投公司上市期限不匹配的难题，改变中国PE基金扎堆投pre-IPO或临近上市轮现象。创新型中小企业上市不再需要完整走完天使轮—A轮—B轮—C轮—D轮—……—IPO的漫长过程，从而促使更多的PE基金在投资端前移，也可以促进VC投资的发展。</b></p>\n<p><b>北京证券交易所的设立，还改变了一级市场PE基金生存的底层逻辑，未来将颠覆目前的行业生态。</b>目前的PE、VC市场，呈现出两极分化的状态：一大批初创企业争相求着头部PE基金投资，而一大批中小PE基金则求着明星项目要份额；头部PE基金募资能力强，中小PE基金若无特殊资源则很难找到LP。未来创新型中小企业上市更加容易，有利于专业化、特色型中小PE基金的生存发展，有望改变头部大型PE基金垄断主导权的行业生态。</p>","source":"lsy1568619116533","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n北京证券交易所来了！谁的“大肉”，谁的“汤”？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-06 10:03 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lqSPqmgOxaUC0SuD0zmyPQ><strong>海清FICC频道</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>9月2日晚，中央宣布将深化新三板改革，设立北京证券交易所，打造服务创新型中小企业主阵地。\n一、设立北京证券交易所是大国博弈、“科技兴邦”的战略抉择\n当前，一场以数字经济、芯片、人工智能、新能源技术、太空探索技术、生物医药技术为引领的科技革命正在到来。\n在中国经济高质量发展、产业转型升级和全球产业竞争中，科技创新的竞争是核心。中国能否在这一场科技竞争中取得先发优势，不仅仅决定了中国能否解决关键技术“...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lqSPqmgOxaUC0SuD0zmyPQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5481d622d7bc535b67b2738f86cc0db","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lqSPqmgOxaUC0SuD0zmyPQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103617448","content_text":"9月2日晚，中央宣布将深化新三板改革，设立北京证券交易所，打造服务创新型中小企业主阵地。\n一、设立北京证券交易所是大国博弈、“科技兴邦”的战略抉择\n当前，一场以数字经济、芯片、人工智能、新能源技术、太空探索技术、生物医药技术为引领的科技革命正在到来。\n在中国经济高质量发展、产业转型升级和全球产业竞争中，科技创新的竞争是核心。中国能否在这一场科技竞争中取得先发优势，不仅仅决定了中国能否解决关键技术“卡脖子”的短期问题，还决定了未来谁是全球产业经济的“领头羊”、21世纪是谁的世纪的长期问题。\n从历史上大国崛起的过程来看，科技是根本驱动力：\n英国借助蒸汽机的领先优势率先开始了第一次工业革命，成为世界霸主；\n美德在内燃机、电气化领域弯道超车超过英国，引领了第二次工业革命，取代了英国的地位；\n二战后美国在原子能、生物医药、航空航天、计算机等领域引领了第三次工业革命，进一步巩固了其全球科技领头羊地位和世界霸主地位。\n在上世纪八九十年代的美日贸易战中，除了“广场协议”这一表面因素和直接诱因外，美国最终能够胜过日本的关键也在于两国在经济发展驱动力选择上的根本差异：\n日本因循传统的主办银行制度，支持传统的大型制造业企业和房地产行业发展，其金融体制不适应科技创新的需要。在广场协议后，日元升值、出口受挫，日本更是直接通过货币大放水刺激起股市泡沫和房市泡沫，催生出“虚假的繁荣”。\n美国通过纳斯达克市场为科技创新企业提供便利的融资环境，硅谷发展起来，培育了一大批后来的互联网企业。\n到了九十年代，日本房市和股市泡沫破裂，经济陷入“失去的二十年”；美国厚积薄发，互联网革命兴起，出现“新经济繁荣”。日本在美日竞争中彻底出局。\n大国博弈，科技定乾坤！科技是第一生产力，是大国崛起和全球竞争的关键。\n金融是实体的血液，科技竞争，金融先行。哪个国家的资本市场更能服务创新，更能为高科技企业融资和发展提供便利，哪个国家的科技创新就更有可能快速进步，同时还能吸引其他国家和地区的高科技企业来本地上市。\n近年来美国纳斯达克也在不断进行制度创新，为中小科创企业上市提供更便捷的政策机制设计。比如，近年来美国股市出现许多特殊目的收购公司（SPAC），成为许多企业借壳上市的“终南捷径”。其操作模式是：第一步，成立一个SPAC公司，向监管机构申请发股募资，但此时发起人持有的股票只能在限定市场上单独交易；第二步，在18~24个月内，管理团队找到一家可以收购的目标公司，全体股东投票，多数同意后完成收购，合并成新公司，股票就可以正式上市交易。发起人持有的股票等锁定期一过，就可以退出套现。SPAC模式能够让企业在短时间内实现上市，成本也比IPO、买壳上市/借壳上市更低。\n如今中国决策层已经彻底下定决心转型，告别以城镇化红利为基础的“房地产+土地财政”旧模式，塑造“硬科技+绿色低碳+支持民企小微”为三大支柱的新增长模式。\n为承接上述发展战略转型，目前国内需要一个聚焦服务创新型中小企业、承担培育一批专精特新中小企业使命的交易所，北京证券交易所的出现适应了时代的需要，也响应了全球科技竞争的需求。\n二、北京证券交易所并非“凭空出世”，而是北京长期以来科技创新支持政策内生进化的结果\n北京是中国创新企业和金融资源高度集中的城市，纵观北京科技创新领域的政策演进路径可以发现，在每一个重要的历史关口，北京都推出了重大的政策和制度创新：\n在上世纪八九十年代，随着美国互联网科技产业兴起，北京建立了中关村，成为我国科教智力和人才资源最为密集的区域，被称为“中国硅谷”。\n2006年，中关村科技园区非上市股份公司进入代办转让系统进行股份报价转让，称为“新三板”。\n2020年7月27日，新三板精选层设立暨首批企业晋层仪式在全国股转公司挂牌大厅举行，首批32家公司已全部完成公开发行程序，精选层正式设立并开市交易。\n如今，在精选层进行了一年多的试点的基础上，以精选层为基础组建北京证券交易所，可谓“水到渠成”。\n从北京产业转型升级的方向来看，数字经济、科技创新是重要的支撑，北京证券交易所的设立，对于北京建设具有全球影响力的金融中心、科技创新中心具有重大意义。\n三、北京证券交易所最值得期待的是制度建设能否再做突破创新\n中国已有沪深两大交易所，设立北京证券交易所的最大看点并不是又多了一家交易所，其最值得期待的是未来还会有哪些制度创新！\n此前很长一段时间，中国股市没有实行注册制、无法让同股不同权的企业上市、无法让未盈利的高科技企业上市。科创板的推出解决了注册制的问题，同时为未盈利的高科技企业上市创造了条件。北京证券交易所进一步放宽了创新型中小企业上升的市值、财务条件，企业上市融资更加便捷。\n从目前监管披露的信息来看，北京证券交易所的初期规划是新三板的延伸：以现有的新三板精选层为基础组建北京证券交易所，总体平移精选层各项基础制度，坚持北京证券交易所上市公司由创新层公司产生，维持新三板基础层、创新层与北京证券交易所“层层递进”的市场结构，同步试点证券发行注册制。\n此前新三板精选层也设计了向科创板、创业板转板上市的制度，但成功转板上市的企业有限。以现有的新三板精选层为基础组建北京证券交易所，不仅有利于增强新三板挂牌企业股权的流动性和上市渠道，还是为了“打造服务创新型中小企业主阵地”，“培育一批专精特新中小企业”。\n从新三板精选层和科创板挂牌/上市的条件和门槛来看，精选层的对企业市值条件、财务条件的要求更加宽松，更有利于中小科创企业的上市。\n未来北京证券交易所是否能有更多的制度创新？能否进一步推动中国股票市场的改革进程？值得我们期待。\n\n四、北京证券交易所的设立将带来PE基金行业的颠覆性变革\n北京证券交易所的设立，有利于创新型中小企业上市，活跃股票交易市场，有利于券商承销业务和经纪业务收入增长，因此，周五开盘后券商股集体大涨。\n但我们认为，北京证券交易所的设立对券商股的利好非常有限，充其量也就是喝点“汤”。北京证券交易所设立的最大受益者或者说“吃肉的”是PE/VC基金，一级PE基金黄金时代可期待来临。\n过去 PE/VC投资的退出渠道比较匮乏，基本上需要等到被投企业IPO上市后才能顺畅地退出。但以前企业在A股上市门槛高、周期长，而一般的PE基金的存续期限往往只有3—7年。\n为了保证在基金存续期结束时能够顺利退出、给投资人兑现收益，中国的PE基金往往只能陪跑“后半场”，在企业成长到一定规模、能够在较短的时间内上市时才介入；部分企业在中国面临上市难的问题，最后会选择VIE架构去美国或香港上市，让PE基金得以退出。\n随着科创板推出、创业板注册制改革、北京证券交易所设立，创新型中小企业上市更加便捷，条件放宽，可以在企业发展的较早阶段上市，能够缓解过去PE基金产品期限和被投公司上市期限不匹配的难题，改变中国PE基金扎堆投pre-IPO或临近上市轮现象。创新型中小企业上市不再需要完整走完天使轮—A轮—B轮—C轮—D轮—……—IPO的漫长过程，从而促使更多的PE基金在投资端前移，也可以促进VC投资的发展。\n北京证券交易所的设立，还改变了一级市场PE基金生存的底层逻辑，未来将颠覆目前的行业生态。目前的PE、VC市场，呈现出两极分化的状态：一大批初创企业争相求着头部PE基金投资，而一大批中小PE基金则求着明星项目要份额；头部PE基金募资能力强，中小PE基金若无特殊资源则很难找到LP。未来创新型中小企业上市更加容易，有利于专业化、特色型中小PE基金的生存发展，有望改变头部大型PE基金垄断主导权的行业生态。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":284,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":815391392,"gmtCreate":1630641047616,"gmtModify":1676530364207,"author":{"id":"3554723558168801","authorId":"3554723558168801","name":"DylanX","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9cece583c7a795a8ce48d0e39d630693","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554723558168801","authorIdStr":"3554723558168801"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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