To The Moon

On a year-over-year basis, the spots of growth in Google's report were impressive: YouTube Ads: $6.69B -> $8.09B (+21%) Cloud Revenue: $7.45B -> $9.57B (+28.5%) Cloud Operating Income: $191M -> $900M (+371%) Operating Margin: 25% -> 32% These are very nice numbers and show how hard the core team is working behind all the bad media coverage of their AI efforts

$Alphabet(GOOGL)$   $Microsoft(MSFT)$   Congrats to $GOOGL and $MSFT longs. Even if you don’t own these names — this is SUCH A GOOD thing for the broader stock market. - Inflation is sticky, so we NEEDED Q1 earnings to show that AI is enough of a tailwind to withstand inflation - One similarity between $MSFT $GOOGL & $META is capex increased across the board, which means the market should normalize that companies will have to increase spend on AI infrastructure and should grow from it later — bullish for $NVDA - Microsoft/Google’s cloud growth continues to be exceptional, with $MSFT guiding for 30% Azure growth, HUGE for the AI

Quarterly earnings. While many are obsessed over the after-hour price moves after earnings are being reported, and trying to figure out why is the stock price up or down, and why so little or so much. Instead all that we are choose to focus is going through the financials, and reading the earnings call transcripts, and making sure that the investment thesis of the companies that we own are still intact, and tracking their progress. There is something truly zen about being business-focused investors than to be price-focused investors. This is because we know what is the ultimate North Star and driver of our long-term returns from owning the businesses that can keep growing revenues, profits and cash flows for a very long time.

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$   A perfect bounce at the diagonal trend zone today.

$Western Digital(WDC)$  $Micron Technology(MU)$  $Seagate Technology PLC(STX)$  Hard drive prices are set to rise as Seagate, Western Digital and others are notifying customers of increases. The reason cited? AI increasing storage requirements and demand. Hardware integration companies can either eat the increased cost and see margin compression or pass it on (cost push inflation). This sort of thing is still happening in many areas of goods and services.

You can't make this up: Prediction markets now show a 36% chance of ZERO interest rate cuts in 2024. To put this in perspective, 4 months ago there was a ~3% chance of no rate cuts in 2024. The base case has gone from 6 rate cuts to 1 rate cut this year. There is just a 31% chance of 2 or more interest rate cuts this year. In other words, there is a higher chance of NO cuts than 2 OR MORE cuts. This could be the fastest shift in Fed expectations of all time. Truly incredible.

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$   $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$   Current market mentality: 1. Economic data weaker than expected: Sell stocks, we are heading into a recession 2. Economic data stronger than expected: Sell stocks, inflation is on the rise 3. Economic data as expected, Sell stocks, higher for longer is back What is happening here? Markets have gone from pricing-in 5 rate cuts to just 1 cut. Soon, rate HIKES will be back in the discussion in a sudden turn of events. This is what happens when you lower rates to 0% and print $4 trillion.

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$   For those who do not understand what just happened: First, Q1 2024 GDP growth slowed to just 1.6% which is less than HALF of the 3.4% Q4 2023 number. This reading is roughly 50% BELOW Goldman Sach's expectations. But it gets even worse. At the same time, the US Core PCE Price Index soared from 2.0% to a staggering 3.7%. This crushed estimates of 3.4% and further suggests that inflation is on the rise. We have a weakening economy with rising inflation. The worst possible outcome for the Fed. What does the Fed do when inflation is rising but the economy is weakening? If you cut rate

$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$   BREAKING: Meta stock, $META, falls over 10% despite reporting stronger than expected Q1 2024 earnings. Meta reported quarterly revenue of $36.5 billion and EPS of $4.71, both of which were above expectations. Even with a large beat, the stock is now down 17% from its recent all time high. Is the party over for big tech? Even as active user count came in above expectations and ad impressions jumped 20%, the stock is down. It seems like an overall strong quarter so far for $META. Perhaps investors are just rotating out of tech.

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$   Many people ask me if the US stock market is RIGGED. Absolutely, the stock market is rigged in the investor's favour. If you go to a casino, the best odds of winning in any game is less than 50%. In the US stock market, there is a 78% probability of making money on any given year (over the last 73 years) And if you hold US stocks over the long run, the probability of making money is 100%. This is because the gains from the up years (78% of the time) more then offsets the losses from the down years (22% of the time). So, if you are not able to make money investing in the stock market, the problem lies in YOU (your psychology) and not the market.