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尤大成

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- 尤大成尤大成
  ·2022-11-04
  $BABA 20221111 59.0 PUT$ $BABA 20221111 59.0 PUT$
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- 尤大成尤大成
  ·2021-08-09
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- 尤大成尤大成
  ·2021-08-03
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- 尤大成尤大成
  ·2021-07-31
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- 尤大成尤大成
  ·2021-07-28
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- 尤大成尤大成
  ·2021-07-26
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  The three giants of new energy have already become quite competitive.
  继小鹏汽车之后，理想汽车也回来了。 7月26日，港交所文件显示，理想汽车通过港交所上市聆讯，将寻求作为具有不同投票权架构的发行人申请双重主要上市。虽然是国内三大造车新势力之一，但相比另外两个，理想汽
  The three giants of new energy have already become quite competitive.
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- 尤大成尤大成
  ·2021-07-25
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- 尤大成尤大成
  ·2021-07-21
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  [Unusual Movement] US lithium battery stocks strengthened, with Livent rising over 7%.
  7月21日，美股锂电池板块走强，Livent涨超7%，智利矿业化工、美国雅宝公司、Lithium Americas均涨超3%。美银称全球电动汽车电池最早可能在2025年断供。
  [Unusual Movement] US lithium battery stocks strengthened, with Livent rising over 7%.
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- 尤大成尤大成
  ·2021-07-19
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  What is the "new information" in Powell's testimony?
  一、主题评论：鲍威尔证词里的“新信息” 7月14日，美联储公布了主席鲍威尔将于7月15日向美国参议院银行、住房和城市事务委员会提交的证词，以及美联储半年度货币政策报告。整体而言，鲍威尔的讲话维持鸽派
  What is the "new information" in Powell's testimony?
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- 尤大成尤大成
  ·2021-07-16
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20:29","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"The three giants of new energy have already become quite competitive.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108257936","media":"格隆汇投资学苑","summary":"继小鹏汽车之后，理想汽车也回来了。\n7月26日，港交所文件显示，理想汽车通过港交所上市聆讯，将寻求作为具有不同投票权架构的发行人申请双重主要上市。\n虽然是国内三大造车新势力之一，但相比另外两个，理想汽","content":"<p>Continue<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>After that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>He's back too.</p><p>On July 26, Hong Kong Stock Exchange documents showed that Li Auto passed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange listing hearing and will seek to apply for a dual primary listing as an issuer with different voting rights structures.</p><p>Although it is one of the three major emerging electric vehicle manufacturers in Li Auto, Li Auto seems to be much more low-key compared to the other two, and it does not have obvious advantages in many operating indicators. Can its listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange become a new starting point for Chinese companies and achieve a comeback in future competition?</p><p><b>1、</b><b>Are the operating data ideal?</b></p><p>In terms of products, Li Auto only has one six-seater mid-to-large model.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DLX\">luxury</a>Electric SUV - Li Auto ONE; In terms of sales volume, Li Auto sold 32,624 vehicles in 2020, ranking among the top sellers of the year.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600617\">Guoxin Energy</a>It ranks sixth in car sales, accounting for 2.8% of the market share, and third among automakers that only produce new energy vehicles. As of June 30, 2021, Li Auto had delivered more than 63,000 Li ONE vehicles.</p><p>In contrast, competitors,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>XPeng has already mass-produced more than two automotive products, including SUVs and sedans.<b>In 2020, Nio sold 43,728 vehicles, higher than Li Auto, while XPeng sold 27,006 vehicles, which was relatively lower.</b>However, the difference is that the competitors are all pure electric models, while the ideal range-extended technology route benefits to some extent from the convenience of gasoline vehicles.</p><p>In terms of financial data, Li Auto is still operating at a loss. From 2019 to 2020, Li Auto' total revenue was approximately RMB 284 million and RMB 9.457 billion, respectively, while net losses attributable to ordinary shareholders were RMB 3.282 billion and RMB 792 million, respectively. The losses narrowed, while gross profit turned positive.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/129a0d88612f98087ba073834f0e32dc\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"589\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, in the first three months of 2021, total revenue was 3.575 billion yuan, and the net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders was 360 million yuan, an increase of 3.67 times compared with the same period last year.<b>The reason is that R&D expenses and marketing expenses are growing rapidly.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b96932b218d0b2a17d8eb1be2744d78f\" tg-width=\"994\" tg-height=\"592\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>To plan for the future, R&D expenses must be maintained, while marketing expenses are also difficult to reduce in order to seize market share. In other words, both expenses are unlikely to decrease in the short term, so it is highly likely that this year's net loss will exceed last year's.</b></p><p>It's difficult to predict when net profit will turn positive, but this is a common problem faced by emerging domestic companies. If applied<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>After experiencing this, the year net profit turned positive, with total sales of 500,000 vehicles, the road to profitability for emerging domestic players was still very far away. Of course, there are still significant differences between \"Wei Xiaoli\" and Tesla, so forcing a comparison is not very meaningful. It just wants to show that the road to truly achieving profitability is still long.</p><p>Fortunately, Li Auto's monthly sales continue to grow, and in June it even won the domestic mid-to-large SUV sales championship, surpassing Nio Automobile in total sales, which shows a good development trend.</p><p>The continued strong sales performance is attributed to Li Auto' strategic sales channel layout. As of June 30, 2021, it had 97 retail stores in major cities in China, and opened its 100th retail store on July 10, 2021. Like Tesla, Li Auto chooses to locate its retail stores in shopping malls where its target customers may visit, rather than in central business districts or landmark buildings.</p><p>Its competitor XPeng has 178 stores, including 88 directly operated stores and 90 franchised stores, which is 1.8 times that of Li Auto. However, in the first half of this year, both Li Auto and XPeng sold around 30,000 vehicles, which shows that Li Auto has an advantage in terms of sales efficiency per store.</p><p>The above operating indicators and financial data only show a relatively positive trend, making it difficult to quantify investment value using conventional value models.</p><p>However, Li Auto is in a rapidly developing track with substantial growth dividends that developed countries are vying for, so it needs to be viewed from a deeper perspective.</p><p><b>2、</b><b>Technical approach to solving near-optimal</b></p><p>In choosing major strategic directions, Li Auto was not overly idealistic, but rather very realistic.</p><p>Back then, when Tesla decided to make electric cars, it started with luxury sports cars. It was only interested in Silicon Valley's tech tycoons who were wealthy, willing to try new technologies, and had a passion for contributing to environmental protection.</p><p>Behind this is actually a comprehensive business consideration. Electric vehicle technology is not yet mature, and with limited mass production, the price will inevitably be very high. If you rashly try to enter the grassroots market from the beginning, you will most likely be turned away and easily surrounded by gasoline vehicle manufacturers, or even die in the womb.</p><p>Therefore, starting with relatively differentiated markets was a prudent approach, and subsequent events have proven the success of Tesla's strategy.</p><p>The same applies to Li Auto. A review of its various strategic thinking lines reveals two very clear points.</p><p>First,<b>Starting with mid-to-large SUV models, like Nio, they value market acceptance and price advantages.</b>Over the past decade, SUVs have been popular with consumers due to their powerful engine and spacious interior, and the rising purchasing power of Chinese consumers has supported this SUV craze. Therefore, choosing an SUV model to enter the market can effectively spread costs, eliminate the price gap with similar gasoline vehicles, and make it easier for consumers to accept new energy vehicles.</p><p>Second,<b>The technological roadmap for range-extended range technology.</b>This is also the most controversial point in Li Auto. Why did Li Auto choose this route?</p><p>Let's take a look at the following pictures.</p><p>Comparing the three technology routes, you'll find that the range-extended technology route actually takes a clever approach between plug-in hybrids and HEV hybrids.</p><p>It can refuel and charge simultaneously like a plug-in hybrid, and also has the entire process of generating, storing, and discharging electricity through a fuel engine to drive the electric motor to provide power. However, it does not have the function of a fuel engine directly driving the wheels.</p><p>Like HEV hybrids, it can also be powered by refueling and then generating electricity from the gasoline engine, but it also does not have the function of the gasoline engine directly driving the wheels.</p><p>Anyone who has driven a gasoline-powered car knows that the engine is very noisy when running, and the fuel conversion efficiency is not high. Even with the most advanced technology, it is difficult to exceed 50%. This is precisely the thermal efficiency problem that gasoline-powered cars are often criticized for. But electric vehicles are different. The noise of the motor is much lower than that of a gasoline engine, and the power conversion efficiency is also higher, often reaching 80-90%.</p><p>Therefore, the advantage of range-extended electric vehicles lies in not only making full use of the advantage of electric motors replacing gasoline engines as a power source, but also retaining the benefit of \"being able to refuel\". This solves the problems of range anxiety, excessively long charging time, and too few charging piles in pure electric vehicles.</p><p><b>In other words, it uses the convenience of gasoline-powered vehicles to demonstrate the advantages of electric vehicles.</b></p><p>The new energy vehicle industry is extremely expensive. Li Bin, the owner of Nio, once famously said:<b>\"Don't make electric vehicles without 20 billion.\"</b></p><p>To be realistic, how many startup car companies can raise 20 billion yuan in a single investment?</p><p>Nio himself almost died because he lacked money, so he was able to survive smoothly and was qualified to talk about \"ideals\". The financing figures disclosed by Li Auto before its IPO were 14.6 billion yuan. If money were blindly burned in, the company might have already gone bankrupt before the car even came out.</p><p>Instead of blindly making grand pronouncements, we should start from the most pragmatic approach, with the goal of surviving before planning for the future. This is precisely the starting point and ultimate destination for Ideal to conduct strategic thinking.</p><p><b>3、</b><b>Can ideal foresight be solved?</b></p><p>Like many technology-intensive industries, the choice of technology route is crucial for new energy vehicle companies.</p><p>From the perspective of short-term survival, there is nothing wrong with Li Auto's choice of range-extended technology, and facts have proven its correctness. In terms of annual sales, it is second only to Tesla and Nio, and its gross profit margin and net profit margin are also significantly ahead of Nio and XPeng.</p><p>But if a person has no immediate worries, they must have long-term plans.</p><p>For Li Auto, this long-term vision is the pure electric technology route.</p><p>From the perspective of the long-term development trend of new energy vehicles, pure electric vehicles are inevitable. They can better solve humanity's dependence on oil and provide support for more intelligent applications. Although range anxiety and charging convenience have not yet been well resolved, it is not impossible to solve these problems with the development of technology. This is precisely why, although the range-extended vehicle route has advantages, it has not been favored by many automakers, especially giants.<b>The automotive industry prefers to view range-extended range as a transitional solution rather than a final solution.</b></p><p>In terms of pure electric technology, Li Auto has no advantage and has not yet been interviewed for a pure electric model. Although Li Auto has recognized the importance of the pure electric route in its strategic planning and has focused on high-voltage fast charging technology, it will not be able to launch its first pure electric model until 2023 at the earliest.</p><p>The effectiveness remains to be seen, but technology and the market are changing rapidly. Although the penetration rate is still in the growth range, the competition for pure electric vehicles has become very daytime. All kinds of \"gods\", traditional, new and cross-industry, are fighting bare-handed. If it is difficult to compete, how much time will Li Auto have left to waste? If it cannot make a breakthrough quickly in the pure electric technology route, how long can Li Auto squander the benefits it has gained in the range-extended range route?</p><p>In research and development, Li Auto has benefited from range-extended electric vehicles, with costs significantly lower than those of its competitors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a0ce8d4a224bf61d7f6462f03993e35\" tg-width=\"993\" tg-height=\"643\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, the opposite of being overly pragmatic can also be timidity. Once investment is increased, there will inevitably be a possibility of widening financial losses. Does Li Auto have enough courage to make a drastic decision?</p><p>According to post-hearing information, Li Auto is developing the X platform, which inherits the existing range-extended electric vehicle platform of the Li Auto ONE and is equipped with a next-generation range-extended electric powertrain. The company plans to launch its first product on the X platform – a full-size luxury program-extended electric SUV – in 2022, and launch two other SUVs on the X platform in 2023.</p><p><b>Clearly, one of Ideal's key focuses remains on the range-extended technology route. Can this address its long-term concerns?</b></p><p><b>4、</b><b>epilogue</b></p><p>As a new phenomenon, new energy vehicles are a combination of traditional automobiles and electronic products, embodying humanity's revolutionary ideals for modes of transportation. Who can come out on top in this battle depends on technological research and development.</p><p>The competition in technological research and development is primarily about strategic direction, followed by burning money and talent.</p><p>The choice of range-extended range enabled Li Auto to overcome the difficulties of its early stages of entrepreneurship, successfully survive, and do quite well.<b>However, relying solely on this technological approach, ideals cannot win the future.</b></p><p>Li Auto stated that it is investing heavily in high-voltage pure electric vehicle technology, developing two platforms for future high-voltage pure electric vehicles—Whale and Shark. Starting in 2022, all new Li Auto models will be equipped with the necessary hardware compatible with its self-developed future Level 4 autonomous driving as standard equipment, and has set a \"Li Auto\" goal of achieving a 20% market share within 5 years.</p><p>The ideal is very lofty.</p><p>Having successfully listed on the US stock market last year and now on the Hong Kong stock market, from the perspective of ample capital, the ideal is secured. The popularity of new energy vehicles since last year has allowed Li Auto to enjoy the glory of its stock price doubling.</p><p>However, when it comes to talent, the industry is already in a situation of \"too many applicants and too few porridge\". Even if Li Auto is willing to spend money, can it guarantee that it will find talent? Each of our competitors has a lot of money at their disposal. If we compete to throw money at each other, Li Auto may not be able to win against anyone.</p><p>Reality is harsh.</p><p>The return of ideals may be the beginning of the real challenge.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The three giants of new energy have already become quite competitive.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe three giants of new energy have already become quite competitive.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇投资学苑 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-26 20:29</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Continue<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>After that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>He's back too.</p><p>On July 26, Hong Kong Stock Exchange documents showed that Li Auto passed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange listing hearing and will seek to apply for a dual primary listing as an issuer with different voting rights structures.</p><p>Although it is one of the three major emerging electric vehicle manufacturers in Li Auto, Li Auto seems to be much more low-key compared to the other two, and it does not have obvious advantages in many operating indicators. Can its listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange become a new starting point for Chinese companies and achieve a comeback in future competition?</p><p><b>1、</b><b>Are the operating data ideal?</b></p><p>In terms of products, Li Auto only has one six-seater mid-to-large model.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DLX\">luxury</a>Electric SUV - Li Auto ONE; In terms of sales volume, Li Auto sold 32,624 vehicles in 2020, ranking among the top sellers of the year.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600617\">Guoxin Energy</a>It ranks sixth in car sales, accounting for 2.8% of the market share, and third among automakers that only produce new energy vehicles. As of June 30, 2021, Li Auto had delivered more than 63,000 Li ONE vehicles.</p><p>In contrast, competitors,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>XPeng has already mass-produced more than two automotive products, including SUVs and sedans.<b>In 2020, Nio sold 43,728 vehicles, higher than Li Auto, while XPeng sold 27,006 vehicles, which was relatively lower.</b>However, the difference is that the competitors are all pure electric models, while the ideal range-extended technology route benefits to some extent from the convenience of gasoline vehicles.</p><p>In terms of financial data, Li Auto is still operating at a loss. From 2019 to 2020, Li Auto' total revenue was approximately RMB 284 million and RMB 9.457 billion, respectively, while net losses attributable to ordinary shareholders were RMB 3.282 billion and RMB 792 million, respectively. The losses narrowed, while gross profit turned positive.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/129a0d88612f98087ba073834f0e32dc\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"589\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, in the first three months of 2021, total revenue was 3.575 billion yuan, and the net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders was 360 million yuan, an increase of 3.67 times compared with the same period last year.<b>The reason is that R&D expenses and marketing expenses are growing rapidly.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b96932b218d0b2a17d8eb1be2744d78f\" tg-width=\"994\" tg-height=\"592\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>To plan for the future, R&D expenses must be maintained, while marketing expenses are also difficult to reduce in order to seize market share. In other words, both expenses are unlikely to decrease in the short term, so it is highly likely that this year's net loss will exceed last year's.</b></p><p>It's difficult to predict when net profit will turn positive, but this is a common problem faced by emerging domestic companies. If applied<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>After experiencing this, the year net profit turned positive, with total sales of 500,000 vehicles, the road to profitability for emerging domestic players was still very far away. Of course, there are still significant differences between \"Wei Xiaoli\" and Tesla, so forcing a comparison is not very meaningful. It just wants to show that the road to truly achieving profitability is still long.</p><p>Fortunately, Li Auto's monthly sales continue to grow, and in June it even won the domestic mid-to-large SUV sales championship, surpassing Nio Automobile in total sales, which shows a good development trend.</p><p>The continued strong sales performance is attributed to Li Auto' strategic sales channel layout. As of June 30, 2021, it had 97 retail stores in major cities in China, and opened its 100th retail store on July 10, 2021. Like Tesla, Li Auto chooses to locate its retail stores in shopping malls where its target customers may visit, rather than in central business districts or landmark buildings.</p><p>Its competitor XPeng has 178 stores, including 88 directly operated stores and 90 franchised stores, which is 1.8 times that of Li Auto. However, in the first half of this year, both Li Auto and XPeng sold around 30,000 vehicles, which shows that Li Auto has an advantage in terms of sales efficiency per store.</p><p>The above operating indicators and financial data only show a relatively positive trend, making it difficult to quantify investment value using conventional value models.</p><p>However, Li Auto is in a rapidly developing track with substantial growth dividends that developed countries are vying for, so it needs to be viewed from a deeper perspective.</p><p><b>2、</b><b>Technical approach to solving near-optimal</b></p><p>In choosing major strategic directions, Li Auto was not overly idealistic, but rather very realistic.</p><p>Back then, when Tesla decided to make electric cars, it started with luxury sports cars. It was only interested in Silicon Valley's tech tycoons who were wealthy, willing to try new technologies, and had a passion for contributing to environmental protection.</p><p>Behind this is actually a comprehensive business consideration. Electric vehicle technology is not yet mature, and with limited mass production, the price will inevitably be very high. If you rashly try to enter the grassroots market from the beginning, you will most likely be turned away and easily surrounded by gasoline vehicle manufacturers, or even die in the womb.</p><p>Therefore, starting with relatively differentiated markets was a prudent approach, and subsequent events have proven the success of Tesla's strategy.</p><p>The same applies to Li Auto. A review of its various strategic thinking lines reveals two very clear points.</p><p>First,<b>Starting with mid-to-large SUV models, like Nio, they value market acceptance and price advantages.</b>Over the past decade, SUVs have been popular with consumers due to their powerful engine and spacious interior, and the rising purchasing power of Chinese consumers has supported this SUV craze. Therefore, choosing an SUV model to enter the market can effectively spread costs, eliminate the price gap with similar gasoline vehicles, and make it easier for consumers to accept new energy vehicles.</p><p>Second,<b>The technological roadmap for range-extended range technology.</b>This is also the most controversial point in Li Auto. Why did Li Auto choose this route?</p><p>Let's take a look at the following pictures.</p><p>Comparing the three technology routes, you'll find that the range-extended technology route actually takes a clever approach between plug-in hybrids and HEV hybrids.</p><p>It can refuel and charge simultaneously like a plug-in hybrid, and also has the entire process of generating, storing, and discharging electricity through a fuel engine to drive the electric motor to provide power. However, it does not have the function of a fuel engine directly driving the wheels.</p><p>Like HEV hybrids, it can also be powered by refueling and then generating electricity from the gasoline engine, but it also does not have the function of the gasoline engine directly driving the wheels.</p><p>Anyone who has driven a gasoline-powered car knows that the engine is very noisy when running, and the fuel conversion efficiency is not high. Even with the most advanced technology, it is difficult to exceed 50%. This is precisely the thermal efficiency problem that gasoline-powered cars are often criticized for. But electric vehicles are different. The noise of the motor is much lower than that of a gasoline engine, and the power conversion efficiency is also higher, often reaching 80-90%.</p><p>Therefore, the advantage of range-extended electric vehicles lies in not only making full use of the advantage of electric motors replacing gasoline engines as a power source, but also retaining the benefit of \"being able to refuel\". This solves the problems of range anxiety, excessively long charging time, and too few charging piles in pure electric vehicles.</p><p><b>In other words, it uses the convenience of gasoline-powered vehicles to demonstrate the advantages of electric vehicles.</b></p><p>The new energy vehicle industry is extremely expensive. Li Bin, the owner of Nio, once famously said:<b>\"Don't make electric vehicles without 20 billion.\"</b></p><p>To be realistic, how many startup car companies can raise 20 billion yuan in a single investment?</p><p>Nio himself almost died because he lacked money, so he was able to survive smoothly and was qualified to talk about \"ideals\". The financing figures disclosed by Li Auto before its IPO were 14.6 billion yuan. If money were blindly burned in, the company might have already gone bankrupt before the car even came out.</p><p>Instead of blindly making grand pronouncements, we should start from the most pragmatic approach, with the goal of surviving before planning for the future. This is precisely the starting point and ultimate destination for Ideal to conduct strategic thinking.</p><p><b>3、</b><b>Can ideal foresight be solved?</b></p><p>Like many technology-intensive industries, the choice of technology route is crucial for new energy vehicle companies.</p><p>From the perspective of short-term survival, there is nothing wrong with Li Auto's choice of range-extended technology, and facts have proven its correctness. In terms of annual sales, it is second only to Tesla and Nio, and its gross profit margin and net profit margin are also significantly ahead of Nio and XPeng.</p><p>But if a person has no immediate worries, they must have long-term plans.</p><p>For Li Auto, this long-term vision is the pure electric technology route.</p><p>From the perspective of the long-term development trend of new energy vehicles, pure electric vehicles are inevitable. They can better solve humanity's dependence on oil and provide support for more intelligent applications. Although range anxiety and charging convenience have not yet been well resolved, it is not impossible to solve these problems with the development of technology. This is precisely why, although the range-extended vehicle route has advantages, it has not been favored by many automakers, especially giants.<b>The automotive industry prefers to view range-extended range as a transitional solution rather than a final solution.</b></p><p>In terms of pure electric technology, Li Auto has no advantage and has not yet been interviewed for a pure electric model. Although Li Auto has recognized the importance of the pure electric route in its strategic planning and has focused on high-voltage fast charging technology, it will not be able to launch its first pure electric model until 2023 at the earliest.</p><p>The effectiveness remains to be seen, but technology and the market are changing rapidly. Although the penetration rate is still in the growth range, the competition for pure electric vehicles has become very daytime. All kinds of \"gods\", traditional, new and cross-industry, are fighting bare-handed. If it is difficult to compete, how much time will Li Auto have left to waste? If it cannot make a breakthrough quickly in the pure electric technology route, how long can Li Auto squander the benefits it has gained in the range-extended range route?</p><p>In research and development, Li Auto has benefited from range-extended electric vehicles, with costs significantly lower than those of its competitors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a0ce8d4a224bf61d7f6462f03993e35\" tg-width=\"993\" tg-height=\"643\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, the opposite of being overly pragmatic can also be timidity. Once investment is increased, there will inevitably be a possibility of widening financial losses. Does Li Auto have enough courage to make a drastic decision?</p><p>According to post-hearing information, Li Auto is developing the X platform, which inherits the existing range-extended electric vehicle platform of the Li Auto ONE and is equipped with a next-generation range-extended electric powertrain. The company plans to launch its first product on the X platform – a full-size luxury program-extended electric SUV – in 2022, and launch two other SUVs on the X platform in 2023.</p><p><b>Clearly, one of Ideal's key focuses remains on the range-extended technology route. Can this address its long-term concerns?</b></p><p><b>4、</b><b>epilogue</b></p><p>As a new phenomenon, new energy vehicles are a combination of traditional automobiles and electronic products, embodying humanity's revolutionary ideals for modes of transportation. Who can come out on top in this battle depends on technological research and development.</p><p>The competition in technological research and development is primarily about strategic direction, followed by burning money and talent.</p><p>The choice of range-extended range enabled Li Auto to overcome the difficulties of its early stages of entrepreneurship, successfully survive, and do quite well.<b>However, relying solely on this technological approach, ideals cannot win the future.</b></p><p>Li Auto stated that it is investing heavily in high-voltage pure electric vehicle technology, developing two platforms for future high-voltage pure electric vehicles—Whale and Shark. Starting in 2022, all new Li Auto models will be equipped with the necessary hardware compatible with its self-developed future Level 4 autonomous driving as standard equipment, and has set a \"Li Auto\" goal of achieving a 20% market share within 5 years.</p><p>The ideal is very lofty.</p><p>Having successfully listed on the US stock market last year and now on the Hong Kong stock market, from the perspective of ample capital, the ideal is secured. The popularity of new energy vehicles since last year has allowed Li Auto to enjoy the glory of its stock price doubling.</p><p>However, when it comes to talent, the industry is already in a situation of \"too many applicants and too few porridge\". Even if Li Auto is willing to spend money, can it guarantee that it will find talent? Each of our competitors has a lot of money at their disposal. If we compete to throw money at each other, Li Auto may not be able to win against anyone.</p><p>Reality is harsh.</p><p>The return of ideals may be the beginning of the real challenge.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edb5904d62b10798f760277be625646d","relate_stocks":{"160640":"新能源","399941":"新能源","LI":"理想汽车","09868":"小鹏集团-W","NIO":"蔚来","000941.SH":"新能源","XPEV":"小鹏集团"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108257936","content_text":"继小鹏汽车之后，理想汽车也回来了。\n7月26日，港交所文件显示，理想汽车通过港交所上市聆讯，将寻求作为具有不同投票权架构的发行人申请双重主要上市。\n虽然是国内三大造车新势力之一，但相比另外两个，理想汽车似乎要低调很多，诸多的经营指标也没有明显的优势，此次登陆港交所，又能否成为理想汽车新的起点，并在未来的竞争中完成逆袭？\n1、经营数据，理不理想？\n从产品上看，理想汽车只有一款六座中大型豪华电动SUV--理想ONE；销量上，2020年，理想卖出了32624辆，名列年度中国新能源汽车销量第六位，占市场份额2.8%，在仅生产新能源汽车的汽车制造商中排名第三。截至2021年6月30日，理想一共交付超过63000辆理想ONE。\n反观竞争对手，蔚来、小鹏都已量产两款以上的汽车产品，包括SUV和轿车，2020年蔚来的销量达到43728辆，高于理想，小鹏则是27006辆，相对低一点。但不同的是，竞争对手的都是纯电车型，而理想的增程式技术路线，多少沾了燃油车的方便性。\n在财务数据上，理想仍处于亏损状态。2019-2020年，理想汽车总收入分别约为2.84亿、94.57亿元，归属普通股东的净亏损分别为32.82亿元、7.92亿元，亏损有所收窄，而毛利上已经转正。\n\n但2021年前三个月总收入35.75亿元，归属普通股东的净亏损3.6亿元，相比去年同期，扩大了3.67倍，原因在于研发费用和营销费用增长较快。\n\n要布局未来，研发费用就得维持，而出于抢占市场的需要，营销费用也很难减少。换言之，两项费用短期内都有很难降下来，所以预计今年的净亏损额超过去年的可能性还很高。\n何时能够实现净利润转正，不好下判断，但这也是国内新势力普遍存在的问题。如果套用特斯拉经历的事情，净利润实现转正的那一年，总销量是50万辆，那国内新势力的盈利道路，还遥远得很。当然，“蔚小理”和特斯拉差别还很大，强行对比并没有太多意义，只是想说明，要真正实现盈利，道路还很漫长。\n不过，好在理想的月度销量还在持续增长，6月份还拿下了国内中大型SUV销量冠军，在总销量上也超越蔚来汽车，在发展趋势上是不错的。\n销售的持续给力，有赖于理想汽车在销售渠道方面的布局。截至2021年6月30日，在中国主要城市拥有97家零售门店，2021年7月10日，开设了第100家零售店。和特斯拉一样，理想将零售门店选址在目标用户可能光顾的购物中心，而非中心商业区或地标性建筑。\n而竞争对手小鹏的门店数量，包括直营店88家，特许经营店90家，合计178家，是理想的1.8倍，但是今年上半年理想和小鹏的销量都是3万辆左右，这也表明在单店销售效率上，理想是有优势的。\n综上的经营指标和财务数据，只是看到一个相对不错的变化趋势，很难套用常规的价值模型去量化投资价值。\n但理想汽车，正处于一个快速发展、增长红利很足且各发达国家都在争抢的赛道，所以得从更深层次的角度去看待它。\n2、技术路线，解决近优\n在重大的战略方向选择上，理想汽车并没有过多的理想主义，而是非常的现实。\n当年，特斯拉在决定做电动车时，是从豪华的跑车切入，看中的不过是硅谷的科技富豪们，既有钱，又乐意尝试新科技的心理，同时还有一份为环保贡献力量的济世情怀。\n这背后，其实是基于商业的通盘考虑，电动车技术尚未成熟，加上量产有限，价格必定很贵，如果一开始就贸贸然去敲基层市场的大门，结果大概率是吃闭门羹，而且很容易被燃油车厂联合围剿，甚至胎死腹中。\n所以，从相对差异化的市场入手，不失为一个稳妥做法，后来的事实也证明特斯拉这个战略的成功。\n理想汽车也一样，梳理一下它的各种战略思维脉络，有两点非常清晰。\n第一，从中大型SUV车型入手，和蔚来一样，它们看中的正是市场接受度和价格优势。过去十年，SUV凭借着强劲的动力、宽敞的空间，受到消费者的追捧，而国人不断上升的消费力则支撑起了这股SUV热潮。因此，选择SUV车型打入市场，能够很好地平摊成本，消除和同类型燃油车的价格差距，使得消费者更容易接受新能源汽车。\n第二，增程式的技术路线。这点也是理想汽车争议最多的地方，到底理想为何会选择这个路线？\n先看看下面几张图。\n三种技术路线一对比，你会发现，增程式技术路线其实是在插电式混合动力和HEV混合动力中间取了巧。\n它可以像插电式混动那样加油充电两不误，也具备通过燃油发动机发电、储备、放电后带动电机从而提供动力的全过程，但它没有燃油发动机直接带动车轮的功能。\n它也可以像HEV混动那样仅仅通过加油，然后由燃油车发动机发电提供动力，但它同样没有燃油发动机直接带动车轮的功能。\n开过燃油车的人都知道，发动机转动时噪音很大，而且燃油的转化效率并不高，即使最牛的技术，也很难超过50%，这正是燃油车常常被诟病的热效率问题。但电动车就不一样，电机转动的噪音比燃油发动机低很多，动力转换效率也更高，常常可以达到80-90%。\n所以，增程式的优势就在于，既充分利用了电机代替燃油发动机作为动力来源的优势，又保留了“可以加油”的好处，这就解决纯电车型里程焦虑、充电时间过长、充电桩太少的问题。\n换句话说，就是用燃油车的方便性，开出了电动车的优越性。\n新能源车这个行当非常烧钱，蔚来的老板李斌有过一句名言：“没有200亿，不要做电动车。”\n实事求是地问，有多少创业车企一出手就能拿到200亿？\n蔚来自己都差点因为缺钱挂掉，所以能够顺利活下来，才有资格去谈“理想”。理想汽车上市前披露的融资数据，是146亿，如果盲目地烧钱进去，很可能车都没出来，公司就已经挂了。\n不盲目吹大炮，从最务实的路线出发，目标是活下来，再谋划未来的大局，这正是理想做战略思考的出发点，也是最终归宿。\n3、理想的远虑，能解决吗？\n和很多技术密集型行业一样，技术路线的选择对于新能源汽车公司来说，非常重要。\n从短期活下来的角度看，理想选择增程式技术路线无可否非，事实也证明它的正确性，年度销量上，它仅次于特斯拉和蔚来，毛利率和净利率也大幅领先蔚来和小鹏。\n但人无近忧，必有远虑。\n对于理想汽车，这个远虑，就是纯电技术路线。\n从长远的新能源车发展趋势上，纯电是必然，它能更好地解决人类对于石油的依赖，以及为更多智能化的落地运用提供支撑，虽然里程焦虑、充电便利性问题至今还没有很好地解决，但随着技术的发展，要解决这些问题并非不可能。这也正是增程式路线虽然有优势，但也并没有受到太多车企尤其是巨头的青睐的原因，汽车界更愿意将增程式视为过渡方案，而不是终极方案。\n在纯电技术上，理想并没有优势，至今也没有一辆纯电车型面试。虽然在战略规划上，理想已经意识纯电路线的重要性，重点押注了高压快充技术，但最快也得2023年才能推出首款纯电车型。\n效果如何未可知，但技术和市场的变化日新月异，虽然渗透率还处在增长区间，但纯电车竞争已非常白日化，各路“神仙”，传统的、新的、跨界的，都赤膊上阵，争得不好开交，理想汽车还有多少时间去消耗，如果不能在纯电技术路线上迅速取得突破，理想在增程式路线上获得好处，还能挥霍多久？\n在研发，理想汽车吃过增程式的好处，费用上大幅低于竞争对手。\n\n但过分务实的反面，也可以是畏首畏尾，一旦加大投入，财务上必然会出现亏损扩大的可能性，理想又有没有足够的魄力去壮士断腕？\n据聆讯后资料显示，理想汽车正在开发X平台，它继承了理想ONE现有的增程序电动汽车平台，并配备了下一代增程电动动力系统。公司计划于2022年推出X平台上的首款产品——全尺寸豪华增程序电动SUV，并于2023年在X平台上推出另外两款SUV。\n很明显，理想的重点之一仍然在增程式技术路线上，这能够解决它的远虑吗？\n4、结语\n新能源汽车作为新生事物，是传统汽车和电子产品的合体，承载了人类对出行方式的革命理想，谁能够在这场大战中走到最后，取决于技术研发。\n而技术研发比拼的，首先是战略方向，其次才是烧钱和人才。\n增程式的选择令理想度过了创业初期的艰难，成功地活下来，而且活得还不错。但仅仅依靠这个技术路线，理想不可能赢得未来。\n理想表示正大力投资高压纯电动汽车技术，为未来的高压纯电动车型开发两个平台—Whale及Shark，并自2022年起，理想汽车的所有新车型将配有与自主开发的未来L4级自动驾驶兼容的必要硬件作为标配，并立下“理想”--5年内占20%市场份额。\n理想很丰满。\n去年顺利登陆美股，现在又来到港股，从资本充裕的角度，理想是有着落了。而去年至今新能源汽车的火热，也让理想享受了股价翻倍的高光。\n但在人才的问题，行业已经是“僧多粥少”的情况，即使理想愿意砸钱，就能够保证一定找得到人才吗？竞争对手个个都手握重金，比砸钱，理想不一定能稳赢过谁？\n现实很骨感。\n理想的回归，或许才是真正挑战的开始。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"160640":0.9,"399941":0.9,"000941.SH":0.9,"LI":0.9,"XPEV":0.9,"09868":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5965,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177917604,"gmtCreate":1627175598008,"gmtModify":1703485010052,"author":{"id":"3555497604132927","authorId":"3555497604132927","name":"尤大成","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b97d814f3ef1f69dc6b55b9de20e7a45","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555497604132927","idStr":"3555497604132927"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/177917604","repostId":"2154939392","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4673,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"l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21:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"[Unusual Movement] US lithium battery stocks strengthened, with Livent rising over 7%.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131487400","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月21日，美股锂电池板块走强，Livent涨超7%，智利矿业化工、美国雅宝公司、Lithium Americas均涨超3%。美银称全球电动汽车电池最早可能在2025年断供。","content":"<p>On July 21, the US lithium battery sector strengthened, with Livent rising over 7%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQM\">Chilean mining and chemical industry</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ALB\">Albemarle, Inc.</a>Lithium Americas Both rose by more than 3%. Bank of America states that the global supply of electric vehicle batteries could run out as early as 2025.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6d5fff270b9eb92b913298b1d8f590c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>[Unusual Movement] US lithium battery stocks strengthened, with Livent rising over 7%.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n[Unusual Movement] US lithium battery stocks strengthened, with Livent rising over 7%.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-21 21:43</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On July 21, the US lithium battery sector strengthened, with Livent rising over 7%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQM\">Chilean mining and chemical industry</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ALB\">Albemarle, Inc.</a>Lithium Americas Both rose by more than 3%. Bank of America states that the global supply of electric vehicle batteries could run out as early as 2025.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6d5fff270b9eb92b913298b1d8f590c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3ac286c2233d10a592ba6c388667fb","relate_stocks":{"ALB":"美国雅保","LTHM":"Livent Corp.","SQM":"智利矿业化工"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131487400","content_text":"7月21日，美股锂电池板块走强，Livent涨超7%，智利矿业化工、美国雅宝公司、Lithium Americas均涨超3%。美银称全球电动汽车电池最早可能在2025年断供。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SQM":0.9,"ALB":0.9,"LTHM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6003,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171991770,"gmtCreate":1626701365790,"gmtModify":1703763586415,"author":{"id":"3555497604132927","authorId":"3555497604132927","name":"尤大成","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b97d814f3ef1f69dc6b55b9de20e7a45","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555497604132927","idStr":"3555497604132927"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/171991770","repostId":"2152763544","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2152763544","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1626676742,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2152763544?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-19 14:39","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"What is the \"new information\" in Powell's testimony?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2152763544","media":"格隆汇","summary":"一、主题评论：鲍威尔证词里的“新信息”\n7月14日，美联储公布了主席鲍威尔将于7月15日向美国参议院银行、住房和城市事务委员会提交的证词，以及美联储半年度货币政策报告。\n整体而言，鲍威尔的讲话维持鸽派","content":"<p><h3>I.<b>Topic Commentary: \"New Information\" in Powell's Testimony</b></h3>On July 14, the Federal Reserve released Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony to be submitted to the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs on July 15, as well as the Fed's semi-annual monetary policy report.</p><p><b>Overall, Powell's speech remained dovish. This is reflected in: \"touting\" the positive impact of loose monetary policy on the US economy, believing that the labor market still has a long way to go to recover, emphasizing that the rise in inflation is mainly due to the base effect and supply chain bottlenecks, not worrying about the fragility of the financial system, and emphasizing that the US economy has not yet made the \"substantial further progress\" needed to implement Taper, and that there will be \"advance notice\" before Taper.</b></p><p>After Powell's testimony was released, the market also felt the familiar \"dovish voice,\" and the market panic caused by the surge in US inflation indicators in June eased slightly. The S&P 500 hit a new intraday high, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by more than 5 basis points, and the US Dollar Index declined in the short term. It is worth noting that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has stopped Treasury Bond purchases, and the Bank of Canada has begun implementing Taper.<b>We believe that the Federal Reserve is still trying to \"avoid a sharp turn,\" but if the US job market recovers as expected and inflation indicators remain high in the near future, coupled with foreign central banks taking the lead, then the Fed's \"excuse\" will be even less sufficient, and we still need to be wary of the risk that the Fed's policy shift will come \"earlier\" or \"stronger\" than expected.</b></p><p>Specifically, the key information in Powell's testimony includes:</p><p><b>1) The US economy is recovering rapidly, but supply chain bottlenecks are affecting some industries.</b>Powell believes that the reopening and strong economic growth of the U.S. economy in the first half of 2021 were partly helped by COVID-19 vaccinations, but also inseparable from the support of loose monetary and fiscal policies. Most notably, household spending is growing at a particularly rapid pace, housing demand is very strong, and business investment is steadily increasing. At the same time, however, supply constraints have restricted activity in some industries, most notably the automotive sector. So far this year, a global semiconductor shortage has significantly reduced production in the automotive industry.</p><p><b>2) Labor market conditions continue to improve, but there is still a long way to go.</b>Powell believes that labor demand in the United States appears to be very strong, with job vacancies currently at record highs, hiring momentum strong, and many people leaving to seek better jobs. U.S. employers added 1.7 million workers in April and June. However, the U.S. unemployment rate remained as high as 5.9% in June, and this figure underestimates the insufficiency of the job recovery, as the labor force participation rate remains low. However, as the pandemic improves and its impact on employment diminishes, U.S. job growth should be strong in the coming months. In addition, he emphasized that employment for low-income groups and people of color has been more affected and needs to be restored.</p><p><b>3) The inflation rate has risen significantly and is likely to remain high in the coming months before easing.</b>Powell believes that firstly, the base effect temporarily pushed up inflation, and secondly, against the backdrop of strong demand, supply bottlenecks led to a rapid rise in the prices of certain goods and services. However, as supply chain bottlenecks ease in the future, this situation should be reversed to some extent. In recent months, service prices, which have been severely affected by the pandemic, have also risen sharply as demand in the service sector increases significantly as the economy reopens. He emphasized that the Federal Reserve has adjusted its monetary policy framework, seeking to stabilize long-term inflation expectations at 2%, and that indicators measuring long-term inflation expectations have rebounded from their lows and are currently in a range roughly consistent with the Federal Reserve's long-term inflation target.</p><p><b>4) The Federal Reserve is not yet worried about asset prices and the vulnerability of the financial system.</b>Powell stated that sustainable employment maximization and price stability depend on a stable financial system, and therefore the Federal Reserve will continue to monitor the vulnerabilities of the financial system. However, despite the general rise in valuations of various assets as fundamentals improve and investors' risk appetite increases, U.S. household balance sheets remain quite strong, corporate leverage levels have been declining from high levels, and institutions at the core of the financial system remain resilient.</p><p><b>5) Powell continues to deny that the economy has made \"substantial further progress\" and maintains a dovish stance.</b>Powell stated that the combination of \"zero interest rates\" and asset purchases, coupled with \"strong guidance\" on interest rates and balance sheets, will ensure that monetary policy continues to provide strong support for the U.S. economy until the recovery is complete. It reiterated the main point of the June FOMC meeting: for interest rate adjustments, it is necessary to wait until the economy has truly achieved its maximum employment and long-term inflation targets; For asset purchases, the current pace will be maintained at least until \"substantial further progress\" is achieved. Powell further revealed that at the June policy meeting, the committee discussed the progress made by the U.S. economy since December of last year. Although it is still some distance from meeting the standard of \"substantial further progress,\" progress is expected to continue. The Federal Reserve will continue to discuss these issues at future meetings. The Federal Reserve will provide advance notice before announcing any changes to its asset purchase decisions.</p><p><h3><b>II.</b><b>Overseas economic tracking</b></h3>1</p><p><b>US Economy: Inflation hit a new high in June, while consumption of non-durable goods and services gradually picked up momentum.</b></p><p>The US CPI continued to hit a new high year-on-year in June, surging 0.9% month-on-month, significantly higher than the average growth rate over the past five years (around 0.2%). Looking at the breakdown items, most of them are accelerating month-on-month.<b>The most \"exaggerated\" aspect was the 3.6% month-on-month increase in transportation (compared to 2.1% in the previous month), which was still due to the rise in used car prices.</b>Currently, it is difficult to determine the inflection point of used car price growth, but it may still have an unexpected boosting effect on the US CPI in the second half of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18bc1d3f271ec0d93b01c0be754f4b07\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>The US PPI also saw record year-on-year and month-on-month growth in June, with all sub-items rising month-on-month, with the \"trade\" sub-item surging by 2.1% month-on-month. In the past month,<b>Rising international oil prices have not only directly increased the cost pressure of energy products, but have also led to rising international freight rates and a significant increase in the prices of imported goods from the United States.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788dd66c7ab2ea169c154ddbe5b870c8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>U.S. retail sales rose slightly by 0.55% month-on-month in June, better than expected and the previous value.<b>The structural changes in retail sales are noteworthy, with \"small items\" selling better than \"large items\".</b>Sales of department stores, clothing and accessories, and food and beverages continued to rise, while sales of automobiles, furniture and home decoration, and building materials continued to decline. We continue to emphasize that in the second half of the year, U.S. consumption power will shift from durable goods to non-durable goods and services, and service consumption accounts for the majority of U.S. residents' consumption, so there is still ample room for consumption growth.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f2db4d79190094ea518b852220b8f58\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for July in the United States fell significantly.</b>Rapidly rising prices and expectations of a marginal slowdown in the US economy may have dampened consumer confidence to some extent. However,<b>Employment indicators still send optimistic signals.</b>In the week ending July 3, the number of continuous jobless claims in the United States fell significantly by 126,000 to 3.241 million, and the latest number of initial jobless claims also continued to decline. As additional unemployment benefits in the United States gradually expire, there is still hope for a rapid recovery in U.S. employment.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/912f8e51be197290db777f52cf9d37ec\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>2</p><p><b>Overseas Epidemic and Vaccine Tracking: A New Wave of the Global Epidemic Hits</b></p><p><b>Since late June, and especially since July, the world may be at the starting point of a new wave of the pandemic.</b>This followed a significant resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic in India, which posed a certain degree of threat to the global economy. However, the epidemic in India has gradually eased, and the new wave of the epidemic has affected a wider area. Currently, many regions are affected by the Delta virus, and the number of new confirmed cases has risen again. In Europe, the UK was the first to see a surge in the epidemic and is approaching its peak in January this year. However, the UK will fully lift its lockdown on July 19 (restrictions such as wearing masks, social distancing of 1 meter, working from home, and crowd density in public places will be lifted), which is a noteworthy new development in global epidemic prevention policies. In the past week, new confirmed cases in France have also shown signs of rising, while the epidemic situation in other EU countries such as Germany and Italy remains stable. The COVID-19 situation in Japan has only recently eased and has risen significantly in the past week. With the Olympics approaching, the risks of the epidemic have attracted global attention. The epidemic situation in Southeast Asian countries has been fluctuating, with countries such as Vietnam and Thailand experiencing significant deterioration recently, and related stock markets have also been significantly impacted. The Israeli epidemic has also unexpectedly rebounded, and the effectiveness of vaccination against the new virus may be \"discounted\". However, a closer look at the UK epidemic data shows that vaccination has greatly reduced the mortality rate. It is not impossible that the COVID-19 pandemic will continue to survive like the flu, but its impact will be controllable. But,<b>Concerns about the global pandemic are, to some extent, cooling risk appetite in the capital market recently, raising questions about reflation trading and warranting continued attention.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dbf848a54d0d9c8c1eccaec1359aa62\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cd919d9bf8e9457c68df716ef4280cc\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf9bae175032440d3c388e9ca605b33e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">III. Global Asset</p><p>1</p><p><b>Global stock markets – emerging markets rebound, developed markets correct</b></p><p>Emerging markets, especially Asian emerging market stocks, have been underperforming developed markets since late June due to a resurgence of the pandemic and wariness of \"austerity panic\". In the past week, a rebound has finally occurred, with stock indices in major markets such as South Korea, India, Taiwan, Mexico, China (ChiNext and CSI 300), Indonesia, and Brazil all rising. Meanwhile, most developed market stock markets corrected, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.5%) fell less than the Nasdaq Industrial Average (-1.9%), indicating that cyclical sectors in the US stock market showed stronger resilience.</p><p><b>The Vietnamese stock market has suffered a severe blow in the past two weeks.</b>On July 14, Vietnam's Ho Chi Minh City Index fell by nearly 10% compared to July 2. Vietnam's stock market has performed exceptionally well this year, maintaining a one-sided upward trend until July. Vietnam's strong export performance is the cornerstone of market confidence. According to Vietnamplus, Vietnam's merchandise exports increased by 28.4% year-on-year in the first half of this year. But please note<b>Possible changes in confidence in the Vietnamese market following a marginal slowdown in external demand in the second half of the year.</b>On July 5, 11 and 16, Vietnam reported more than 1,000, 2,000 and 4,000 new confirmed cases in a single day, respectively, while before May this year, the number had not exceeded 100. The sudden surge in the pandemic is likely the trigger for this stock market correction.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9691c486b0bd2aec0923cc0031fc6e38\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"569\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98124ab0b82d7230c0778dd983cb3221\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">2</p><p><b>Global Bond Market – 10-Year US Treasury Yield Falls Below -1%</b></p><p>Over the past week, long-term US Treasury yields have continued to decline, with yields on 7-year and above US Treasury bonds falling 4-6 basis points throughout the week. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 6 basis points to 1.31% for the week, with the 10-year TIPS (real) yield falling 11 basis points to -1.02%, and implied inflation expectations rising 5 basis points to 2.33%.<b>On July 15, the 10-year TIPS rate fell below -1%, hitting a new low since February 12. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has recently fallen to an unimaginable low, mainly due to a lack of market confidence in the US economic outlook.</b>On the one hand, the reduction in the size of the US fiscal plan has lowered the market's medium- to long-term inflation expectations for the US. Furthermore, although inflation indicators are still \"off the charts\" in the short term, it is difficult for the market to continue making significant bets because inflation expectations are already at historical highs. However, factors such as the slowdown in vaccination rates and the disturbance of mutated viruses. This exacerbated market concerns about whether \"herd immunity\" could be achieved in the second half of the year and whether economic activity could resume on time, leading to a significant decline in real US Treasury yields. In the early stages, the market had largely incorporated optimistic expectations into asset pricing, resulting in continuously record highs in US stocks and US corporate bonds. Recently, the market has undoubtedly been experiencing huge changes in expectations. In the global bond market, 10-year Treasury Bond/Treasury yields continued to rise along with US Treasury yields in most regions, but Treasury Bond yields rose in regions such as Thailand and Malaysia due to the sharp deterioration of the pandemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/926368c7d4bdf8bf2910663929dca4d8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc40a8708bcb3030bf1e3a9a8e42a388\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>3</p><p><b>Commodity market – Oil prices fell, while ferrous metals rose continuously.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">agricultural products</a>rebound</b></p><p>International oil prices have corrected significantly in the past week, with WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil futures prices falling 3.7% and 2.6% respectively, closing at $71.81 and $73.59 per barrel. However, in the week ending July 9, EIA U.S. crude oil inventories continued to decline by 7.9 million barrels, a rate of decline roughly the same as the previous two weeks. The main reason for the fluctuations in oil prices over the past week is changes in supply and demand expectations: on the supply side, the resumption of negotiations between the UAE and OPEC means that the production increase plan is expected to proceed smoothly (Saudi Arabia agreed to raise the UAE's production cut benchmark in exchange for the UAE agreeing to extend the overall production cut agreement from April 2022 to the end of that year). On the demand side, the recent disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and market concerns about the US economy \"peaking\" may, to some extent, make the market more cautious in its assessment of crude oil demand.<b>In our report, \"Will Oil Prices Be the Next 'Gray Rhino'?\", we pointed out that supply constraints are key to oil price trends in the second half of the year. Currently, it is highly likely that US shale oil production increases will be limited, and close attention needs to be paid to whether OPEC+ can uphold its previous production increase commitments. If there is no significant increase in production, international oil prices may fluctuate at a high level of $70-80 per barrel in the second half of the year.</b></p><p>Domestic prices of ferrous metals (iron ore, rebar, thermal coal, etc.) have risen for 2-3 consecutive weeks. In our March report, \"Has the 'Super Cycle' of Commodities Arrived?\", we warned of the risks of a \"green bubble\" because behind the rise in copper prices, in addition to the real supply and demand contradiction, there is also speculation and support from the capital market. After a significant correction in mid-June, LME copper prices have recently fluctuated narrowly within a range of $9,100-9,500 per ton. Currently, LME copper inventories have risen to their highest level in nearly a year, and the reduction in \"Biden infrastructure\" has also put pressure on demand expectations, showing some signs of easing the tight copper supply and demand situation.<b>In the near future, market inflation expectations and risk appetite may also decline from high levels, making it more difficult for copper prices to rise and likely to experience more volatility.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55e6ad7c58aefe649d33c4ac2321641d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/880f378ea54447226750849c934fe3a0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">4</p><p><b>Foreign Exchange Market – the US Dollar Index Hits New High Since Q2</b></p><p>On July 13, the the US Dollar Index rose to 92.79, surpassing the previous high of 92.72 on July 7 and reaching a new high since April this year.<b>How should we understand the relationship between the recent decline in US Treasury yields and the appreciation of the US dollar? We believe that attention needs to be paid to the difference between vertical and horizontal comparisons of the US economy.</b>Recently, the US Treasury market has been trading as the US economy has \"peaked,\" which is the main driving force behind the significant decline in US Treasury yields. However, with the recent resurgence of the epidemic in many places, including the UK, the economic outlook for non-US regions outside the Eurozone remains worrying. Therefore, the relative performance of the US economy this year remains \"outstanding,\" and market expectations for a stronger dollar are constantly strengthening. We maintain our view that the US dollar is likely to strengthen in stages in the second half of the year (see our report \"The Next Steps for the US Dollar\"). In addition, some new changes have recently supported the strengthening of the US dollar: after the European Central Bank adjusted its monetary policy decision, the ECB may further accelerate its balance sheet expansion and delay Taper. The difference in the pace of monetary policy between the US and European central banks may further release the room for the US dollar to appreciate against the euro. It is worth noting that since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the US dollar has mainly depreciated against developed markets, while its value against emerging markets this year has remained basically the same as in the second half of 2019. This may mean that the room for currency depreciation in emerging markets is relatively limited. In the past week, Bitcoin prices have hit a new low since February this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09b6b3535060790986839dc811272b2a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0d2421b79d6ce17f8f080b339b33ea9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What is the \"new information\" in Powell's testimony?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat is the \"new information\" in Powell's testimony?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-19 14:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><h3>I.<b>Topic Commentary: \"New Information\" in Powell's Testimony</b></h3>On July 14, the Federal Reserve released Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony to be submitted to the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs on July 15, as well as the Fed's semi-annual monetary policy report.</p><p><b>Overall, Powell's speech remained dovish. This is reflected in: \"touting\" the positive impact of loose monetary policy on the US economy, believing that the labor market still has a long way to go to recover, emphasizing that the rise in inflation is mainly due to the base effect and supply chain bottlenecks, not worrying about the fragility of the financial system, and emphasizing that the US economy has not yet made the \"substantial further progress\" needed to implement Taper, and that there will be \"advance notice\" before Taper.</b></p><p>After Powell's testimony was released, the market also felt the familiar \"dovish voice,\" and the market panic caused by the surge in US inflation indicators in June eased slightly. The S&P 500 hit a new intraday high, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by more than 5 basis points, and the US Dollar Index declined in the short term. It is worth noting that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has stopped Treasury Bond purchases, and the Bank of Canada has begun implementing Taper.<b>We believe that the Federal Reserve is still trying to \"avoid a sharp turn,\" but if the US job market recovers as expected and inflation indicators remain high in the near future, coupled with foreign central banks taking the lead, then the Fed's \"excuse\" will be even less sufficient, and we still need to be wary of the risk that the Fed's policy shift will come \"earlier\" or \"stronger\" than expected.</b></p><p>Specifically, the key information in Powell's testimony includes:</p><p><b>1) The US economy is recovering rapidly, but supply chain bottlenecks are affecting some industries.</b>Powell believes that the reopening and strong economic growth of the U.S. economy in the first half of 2021 were partly helped by COVID-19 vaccinations, but also inseparable from the support of loose monetary and fiscal policies. Most notably, household spending is growing at a particularly rapid pace, housing demand is very strong, and business investment is steadily increasing. At the same time, however, supply constraints have restricted activity in some industries, most notably the automotive sector. So far this year, a global semiconductor shortage has significantly reduced production in the automotive industry.</p><p><b>2) Labor market conditions continue to improve, but there is still a long way to go.</b>Powell believes that labor demand in the United States appears to be very strong, with job vacancies currently at record highs, hiring momentum strong, and many people leaving to seek better jobs. U.S. employers added 1.7 million workers in April and June. However, the U.S. unemployment rate remained as high as 5.9% in June, and this figure underestimates the insufficiency of the job recovery, as the labor force participation rate remains low. However, as the pandemic improves and its impact on employment diminishes, U.S. job growth should be strong in the coming months. In addition, he emphasized that employment for low-income groups and people of color has been more affected and needs to be restored.</p><p><b>3) The inflation rate has risen significantly and is likely to remain high in the coming months before easing.</b>Powell believes that firstly, the base effect temporarily pushed up inflation, and secondly, against the backdrop of strong demand, supply bottlenecks led to a rapid rise in the prices of certain goods and services. However, as supply chain bottlenecks ease in the future, this situation should be reversed to some extent. In recent months, service prices, which have been severely affected by the pandemic, have also risen sharply as demand in the service sector increases significantly as the economy reopens. He emphasized that the Federal Reserve has adjusted its monetary policy framework, seeking to stabilize long-term inflation expectations at 2%, and that indicators measuring long-term inflation expectations have rebounded from their lows and are currently in a range roughly consistent with the Federal Reserve's long-term inflation target.</p><p><b>4) The Federal Reserve is not yet worried about asset prices and the vulnerability of the financial system.</b>Powell stated that sustainable employment maximization and price stability depend on a stable financial system, and therefore the Federal Reserve will continue to monitor the vulnerabilities of the financial system. However, despite the general rise in valuations of various assets as fundamentals improve and investors' risk appetite increases, U.S. household balance sheets remain quite strong, corporate leverage levels have been declining from high levels, and institutions at the core of the financial system remain resilient.</p><p><b>5) Powell continues to deny that the economy has made \"substantial further progress\" and maintains a dovish stance.</b>Powell stated that the combination of \"zero interest rates\" and asset purchases, coupled with \"strong guidance\" on interest rates and balance sheets, will ensure that monetary policy continues to provide strong support for the U.S. economy until the recovery is complete. It reiterated the main point of the June FOMC meeting: for interest rate adjustments, it is necessary to wait until the economy has truly achieved its maximum employment and long-term inflation targets; For asset purchases, the current pace will be maintained at least until \"substantial further progress\" is achieved. Powell further revealed that at the June policy meeting, the committee discussed the progress made by the U.S. economy since December of last year. Although it is still some distance from meeting the standard of \"substantial further progress,\" progress is expected to continue. The Federal Reserve will continue to discuss these issues at future meetings. The Federal Reserve will provide advance notice before announcing any changes to its asset purchase decisions.</p><p><h3><b>II.</b><b>Overseas economic tracking</b></h3>1</p><p><b>US Economy: Inflation hit a new high in June, while consumption of non-durable goods and services gradually picked up momentum.</b></p><p>The US CPI continued to hit a new high year-on-year in June, surging 0.9% month-on-month, significantly higher than the average growth rate over the past five years (around 0.2%). Looking at the breakdown items, most of them are accelerating month-on-month.<b>The most \"exaggerated\" aspect was the 3.6% month-on-month increase in transportation (compared to 2.1% in the previous month), which was still due to the rise in used car prices.</b>Currently, it is difficult to determine the inflection point of used car price growth, but it may still have an unexpected boosting effect on the US CPI in the second half of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18bc1d3f271ec0d93b01c0be754f4b07\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>The US PPI also saw record year-on-year and month-on-month growth in June, with all sub-items rising month-on-month, with the \"trade\" sub-item surging by 2.1% month-on-month. In the past month,<b>Rising international oil prices have not only directly increased the cost pressure of energy products, but have also led to rising international freight rates and a significant increase in the prices of imported goods from the United States.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788dd66c7ab2ea169c154ddbe5b870c8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>U.S. retail sales rose slightly by 0.55% month-on-month in June, better than expected and the previous value.<b>The structural changes in retail sales are noteworthy, with \"small items\" selling better than \"large items\".</b>Sales of department stores, clothing and accessories, and food and beverages continued to rise, while sales of automobiles, furniture and home decoration, and building materials continued to decline. We continue to emphasize that in the second half of the year, U.S. consumption power will shift from durable goods to non-durable goods and services, and service consumption accounts for the majority of U.S. residents' consumption, so there is still ample room for consumption growth.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f2db4d79190094ea518b852220b8f58\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for July in the United States fell significantly.</b>Rapidly rising prices and expectations of a marginal slowdown in the US economy may have dampened consumer confidence to some extent. However,<b>Employment indicators still send optimistic signals.</b>In the week ending July 3, the number of continuous jobless claims in the United States fell significantly by 126,000 to 3.241 million, and the latest number of initial jobless claims also continued to decline. As additional unemployment benefits in the United States gradually expire, there is still hope for a rapid recovery in U.S. employment.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/912f8e51be197290db777f52cf9d37ec\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>2</p><p><b>Overseas Epidemic and Vaccine Tracking: A New Wave of the Global Epidemic Hits</b></p><p><b>Since late June, and especially since July, the world may be at the starting point of a new wave of the pandemic.</b>This followed a significant resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic in India, which posed a certain degree of threat to the global economy. However, the epidemic in India has gradually eased, and the new wave of the epidemic has affected a wider area. Currently, many regions are affected by the Delta virus, and the number of new confirmed cases has risen again. In Europe, the UK was the first to see a surge in the epidemic and is approaching its peak in January this year. However, the UK will fully lift its lockdown on July 19 (restrictions such as wearing masks, social distancing of 1 meter, working from home, and crowd density in public places will be lifted), which is a noteworthy new development in global epidemic prevention policies. In the past week, new confirmed cases in France have also shown signs of rising, while the epidemic situation in other EU countries such as Germany and Italy remains stable. The COVID-19 situation in Japan has only recently eased and has risen significantly in the past week. With the Olympics approaching, the risks of the epidemic have attracted global attention. The epidemic situation in Southeast Asian countries has been fluctuating, with countries such as Vietnam and Thailand experiencing significant deterioration recently, and related stock markets have also been significantly impacted. The Israeli epidemic has also unexpectedly rebounded, and the effectiveness of vaccination against the new virus may be \"discounted\". However, a closer look at the UK epidemic data shows that vaccination has greatly reduced the mortality rate. It is not impossible that the COVID-19 pandemic will continue to survive like the flu, but its impact will be controllable. But,<b>Concerns about the global pandemic are, to some extent, cooling risk appetite in the capital market recently, raising questions about reflation trading and warranting continued attention.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dbf848a54d0d9c8c1eccaec1359aa62\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cd919d9bf8e9457c68df716ef4280cc\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf9bae175032440d3c388e9ca605b33e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">III. Global Asset</p><p>1</p><p><b>Global stock markets – emerging markets rebound, developed markets correct</b></p><p>Emerging markets, especially Asian emerging market stocks, have been underperforming developed markets since late June due to a resurgence of the pandemic and wariness of \"austerity panic\". In the past week, a rebound has finally occurred, with stock indices in major markets such as South Korea, India, Taiwan, Mexico, China (ChiNext and CSI 300), Indonesia, and Brazil all rising. Meanwhile, most developed market stock markets corrected, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.5%) fell less than the Nasdaq Industrial Average (-1.9%), indicating that cyclical sectors in the US stock market showed stronger resilience.</p><p><b>The Vietnamese stock market has suffered a severe blow in the past two weeks.</b>On July 14, Vietnam's Ho Chi Minh City Index fell by nearly 10% compared to July 2. Vietnam's stock market has performed exceptionally well this year, maintaining a one-sided upward trend until July. Vietnam's strong export performance is the cornerstone of market confidence. According to Vietnamplus, Vietnam's merchandise exports increased by 28.4% year-on-year in the first half of this year. But please note<b>Possible changes in confidence in the Vietnamese market following a marginal slowdown in external demand in the second half of the year.</b>On July 5, 11 and 16, Vietnam reported more than 1,000, 2,000 and 4,000 new confirmed cases in a single day, respectively, while before May this year, the number had not exceeded 100. The sudden surge in the pandemic is likely the trigger for this stock market correction.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9691c486b0bd2aec0923cc0031fc6e38\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"569\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98124ab0b82d7230c0778dd983cb3221\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">2</p><p><b>Global Bond Market – 10-Year US Treasury Yield Falls Below -1%</b></p><p>Over the past week, long-term US Treasury yields have continued to decline, with yields on 7-year and above US Treasury bonds falling 4-6 basis points throughout the week. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 6 basis points to 1.31% for the week, with the 10-year TIPS (real) yield falling 11 basis points to -1.02%, and implied inflation expectations rising 5 basis points to 2.33%.<b>On July 15, the 10-year TIPS rate fell below -1%, hitting a new low since February 12. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has recently fallen to an unimaginable low, mainly due to a lack of market confidence in the US economic outlook.</b>On the one hand, the reduction in the size of the US fiscal plan has lowered the market's medium- to long-term inflation expectations for the US. Furthermore, although inflation indicators are still \"off the charts\" in the short term, it is difficult for the market to continue making significant bets because inflation expectations are already at historical highs. However, factors such as the slowdown in vaccination rates and the disturbance of mutated viruses. This exacerbated market concerns about whether \"herd immunity\" could be achieved in the second half of the year and whether economic activity could resume on time, leading to a significant decline in real US Treasury yields. In the early stages, the market had largely incorporated optimistic expectations into asset pricing, resulting in continuously record highs in US stocks and US corporate bonds. Recently, the market has undoubtedly been experiencing huge changes in expectations. In the global bond market, 10-year Treasury Bond/Treasury yields continued to rise along with US Treasury yields in most regions, but Treasury Bond yields rose in regions such as Thailand and Malaysia due to the sharp deterioration of the pandemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/926368c7d4bdf8bf2910663929dca4d8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc40a8708bcb3030bf1e3a9a8e42a388\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>3</p><p><b>Commodity market – Oil prices fell, while ferrous metals rose continuously.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">agricultural products</a>rebound</b></p><p>International oil prices have corrected significantly in the past week, with WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil futures prices falling 3.7% and 2.6% respectively, closing at $71.81 and $73.59 per barrel. However, in the week ending July 9, EIA U.S. crude oil inventories continued to decline by 7.9 million barrels, a rate of decline roughly the same as the previous two weeks. The main reason for the fluctuations in oil prices over the past week is changes in supply and demand expectations: on the supply side, the resumption of negotiations between the UAE and OPEC means that the production increase plan is expected to proceed smoothly (Saudi Arabia agreed to raise the UAE's production cut benchmark in exchange for the UAE agreeing to extend the overall production cut agreement from April 2022 to the end of that year). On the demand side, the recent disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and market concerns about the US economy \"peaking\" may, to some extent, make the market more cautious in its assessment of crude oil demand.<b>In our report, \"Will Oil Prices Be the Next 'Gray Rhino'?\", we pointed out that supply constraints are key to oil price trends in the second half of the year. Currently, it is highly likely that US shale oil production increases will be limited, and close attention needs to be paid to whether OPEC+ can uphold its previous production increase commitments. If there is no significant increase in production, international oil prices may fluctuate at a high level of $70-80 per barrel in the second half of the year.</b></p><p>Domestic prices of ferrous metals (iron ore, rebar, thermal coal, etc.) have risen for 2-3 consecutive weeks. In our March report, \"Has the 'Super Cycle' of Commodities Arrived?\", we warned of the risks of a \"green bubble\" because behind the rise in copper prices, in addition to the real supply and demand contradiction, there is also speculation and support from the capital market. After a significant correction in mid-June, LME copper prices have recently fluctuated narrowly within a range of $9,100-9,500 per ton. Currently, LME copper inventories have risen to their highest level in nearly a year, and the reduction in \"Biden infrastructure\" has also put pressure on demand expectations, showing some signs of easing the tight copper supply and demand situation.<b>In the near future, market inflation expectations and risk appetite may also decline from high levels, making it more difficult for copper prices to rise and likely to experience more volatility.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55e6ad7c58aefe649d33c4ac2321641d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/880f378ea54447226750849c934fe3a0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">4</p><p><b>Foreign Exchange Market – the US Dollar Index Hits New High Since Q2</b></p><p>On July 13, the the US Dollar Index rose to 92.79, surpassing the previous high of 92.72 on July 7 and reaching a new high since April this year.<b>How should we understand the relationship between the recent decline in US Treasury yields and the appreciation of the US dollar? We believe that attention needs to be paid to the difference between vertical and horizontal comparisons of the US economy.</b>Recently, the US Treasury market has been trading as the US economy has \"peaked,\" which is the main driving force behind the significant decline in US Treasury yields. However, with the recent resurgence of the epidemic in many places, including the UK, the economic outlook for non-US regions outside the Eurozone remains worrying. Therefore, the relative performance of the US economy this year remains \"outstanding,\" and market expectations for a stronger dollar are constantly strengthening. We maintain our view that the US dollar is likely to strengthen in stages in the second half of the year (see our report \"The Next Steps for the US Dollar\"). In addition, some new changes have recently supported the strengthening of the US dollar: after the European Central Bank adjusted its monetary policy decision, the ECB may further accelerate its balance sheet expansion and delay Taper. The difference in the pace of monetary policy between the US and European central banks may further release the room for the US dollar to appreciate against the euro. It is worth noting that since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the US dollar has mainly depreciated against developed markets, while its value against emerging markets this year has remained basically the same as in the second half of 2019. This may mean that the room for currency depreciation in emerging markets is relatively limited. In the past week, Bitcoin prices have hit a new low since February this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09b6b3535060790986839dc811272b2a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0d2421b79d6ce17f8f080b339b33ea9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/476315\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4f265653009ef8be3e9588861c69d25","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/476315","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2152763544","content_text":"一、主题评论：鲍威尔证词里的“新信息”\n7月14日，美联储公布了主席鲍威尔将于7月15日向美国参议院银行、住房和城市事务委员会提交的证词，以及美联储半年度货币政策报告。\n整体而言，鲍威尔的讲话维持鸽派。这体现在：“标榜”宽松的货币政策对美国经济的积极影响，认为劳动力市场恢复还有很长的路要走，强调通胀率走高主要是基数效应与供应链瓶颈所致，不担心金融体系的脆弱性，以及强调美国经济尚未取得实施Taper所需的“实质性进一步进展”、Taper前会“提前通知”等。\n鲍威尔的证词公布后，市场亦感受到了熟悉的“鸽声”，6月美国通胀指标蹿升带来的市场恐慌稍有缓解。标普500指数盘中创新高，10年期美债收益率最深跌超5个基点，美元指数短线走低。值得注意的是，目前新西兰央行已经停止国债购买，加拿大央行已经开始实施Taper。我们认为，美联储仍在试图“不急转弯”，但未来一段时间如果美国就业市场如期恢复，通胀指标居高不下，加上外国央行“抢跑”，那么美联储的“借口”将更加不足，仍需警惕美联储政策转向比预期来得“更早”，或力度“更大”的风险。\n具体来看，鲍威尔证词中的重点信息包括：\n1）美国经济快速恢复，但供应链瓶颈对部分行业造成影响。鲍威尔认为，在2021年上半年，美国经济的重新开放和强劲的经济增长，一方面受新冠疫苗接种的帮助，另一方面也离不开宽松的货币和财政政策的支持。其中最明显的是，家庭支出正以特别快的速度增长，住房需求非常强劲，商业投资也在稳步增长。但与此同时，供应限制已经限制一些行业的活动，其中最明显的是汽车行业。今年迄今为止，全球半导体短缺已大幅削减了汽车行业的生产。\n2）劳动力市场状况持续改善，但仍有很长的路要走。鲍威尔认为，美国劳动力需求似乎非常强劲，目前职位空缺处于历史新高，招聘势头强劲，许多人离职而寻求更好的工作。4-6月美国雇主新增170万劳工。但是，6月美国失业率仍然高达5.9%，且这一数字还低估了就业恢复的不足，因劳动参与率仍然低迷。但随着疫情改善及其对就业的影响减少，未来几个月美国就业增长应该会强劲。此外，他还强调了低收入群体和有色人种的就业受影响更大，有待恢复。\n3）通胀率已经明显上升，且未来几月可能仍然居高不下，之后才会有所缓和。鲍威尔认为，第一是基数效应暂时推高通胀，第二是在需求旺盛的背景下，供给瓶颈导致某些商品和服务价格迅速上涨。但未来随着供应链瓶颈缓解，类似情况应会一定程度上得到逆转。近几个月，受疫情严重影响的服务价格也大幅上涨，因随着经济重新开放，服务业需求正在大幅上升。他强调美联储已经调整了货币政策框架，寻求将长期通胀预期稳定在2%，而衡量长期通胀预期的指标已从低点回升，目前处于与美联储长期通胀目标大致一致的区间。\n4）美联储尚不担心资产价格与金融体系脆弱性。鲍威尔表示，可持续地实现就业最大化和价格稳定取决于一个稳定的金融体系，因此美联储将继续监测金融体系的脆弱性。不过，尽管随着基本面改善和投资者风险偏好增强，各类资产估值普遍上升，但美国家庭资产负债表相当强劲，企业杠杆水平一直从高水平下降，处于金融体系核心的机构仍保持弹性。\n5）鲍威尔仍然否认经济已经取得“实质性进一步进展”，维持偏鸽论调。鲍威尔表示，“零利率”+资产购买的组合，加上对利率和资产负债表的“有力指导”，将确保货币政策继续为美国经济提供强有力的支持，直到复苏完成。其重申了6月FOMC会议的主要观点：对于利率调整而言，需要等到经济真正实现了最大就业和长期通胀目标；而对于资产购买，将至少维持现在的速度，直到取得“实质性进一步进展”（substantial further progress）。鲍威尔进一步透露，在6月议息会议上，委员会讨论了去年12月以来美国经济取得的进展，虽然距离达到“实质性进一步进展”的标准还有一段距离，但预计进展将继续下去。而美联储将在今后的会议中继续讨论这些问题。美联储将在宣布任何更改资产购买决定之前给出提前通知（provide advance notice）。\n二、海外经济跟踪\n1\n美国经济：6月通胀指标再创新高，非耐用品和服务消费逐渐起势\n美国6月CPI同比继续创新高，环比大涨0.9%，明显高于过去5年平均增速（0.2%左右）。分项看，大部分环比在加速，最“夸张”的是交通运输项环比大涨3.6%（前值2.1%），这仍是由于二手车价格的上涨。目前，比较难以判断二手车价格增速的拐点，下半年其对美国CPI仍可能带来超预期的拉动作用。\n\n美国6月PPI同比与环比增速也在创新高，所有分项环比均上涨，其中“贸易”分项环比大涨2.1%。近一个月，国际油价走高，不仅直接加大了能源品的成本压力，亦使国际运价上升以及美国进口商品价格大幅上涨。\n\n美国6月零售销售环比小幅上涨0.55%，好于预期和前值。零售销售的结构变化值得关注，“小件”销售好于“大件”，百货商店、服装配饰、食品饮料等销售连续上涨，而汽车、家具家装、建材物料等销售连续下滑。我们继续强调，下半年美国消费力量将由耐用品向非耐用品及服务转移，而服务消费是美国居民消费的大头，因此消费增长空间仍足。\n\n美国7月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值明显滑落。物价快速攀升以及对于美国经济边际放缓的预期，可能均一定程度上抑制了消费信心。不过，就业指标仍传递了乐观信号，截至7月3日当周，美国持续申请失业金人数显著下降12.6万人，至324.1万人，最新的初请失业金人数也继续下降。随着美国额外失业补贴的陆续到期，美国就业快速恢复仍是有希望的。\n\n2\n海外疫情与疫苗跟踪：全球新一波疫情来袭\n自6月下旬尤其7月以来，全球或正处于新一波疫情来临的起点。此前是印度疫情显著抬头并对全球经济造成了一定程度的威胁。但目前印度疫情已经逐渐缓和，而新一波疫情所波及的范围更大，目前很多地区受Delta病毒扰动，新增确诊重新上升。欧洲方面，英国疫情率先抬头，并开始逼近今年1月的高点，但英国将于7月19日全面解封（佩戴口罩、1米社交距离、居家办公、公共场所人员密度等限制将解除），这是一个值得关注的全球防疫政策的新动向。近一周法国新增确诊也出现了抬头迹象，德国、意大利等其他欧盟国家疫情尚稳定。日本疫情刚刚缓和不久，近一周又明显上升，奥运会举办在即，疫情风险受到全球关注。东南亚国家疫情“此消彼长”，近期是越南、泰国等国家显著恶化，相关股市亦受到明显冲击。以色列疫情也意外反扑，疫苗接种对于新病毒的效用可能“打折”。不过，进一步看英国疫情数据，疫苗接种在很大程度上降低了死亡率，未来新冠疫情会否像“流感”一样虽持续生存但影响可控，不是没有可能。但是，对全球疫情的担忧，一定程度上正在使近期资本市场风险偏好降温，再通胀交易受到质疑，值得继续关注。\n\n\n三、全球资产表现\n1\n全球股市——新兴市场反弹、发达市场回调\n新兴市场尤其亚洲新兴市场股市，因疫情反扑和“紧缩恐慌”的戒备之心，自6月下旬开始一直跑输发达市场。而近一周终于等到反弹，韩国、印度、中国台湾、墨西哥、中国（创业板和沪深300）、印尼、巴西等主要市场股指皆有上涨。与此同时，大部分发达市场股市回调，但美股道指（-0.5%）跌幅小于纳指（-1.9%），美股周期板块表现出更强韧性。\n越南股市近两周遭遇重创，7月14日越南胡志明指数较7月2日下跌了近10%。今年以来越南股市表现亮眼，7月以前基本维持单边上涨趋势，越南强劲的出口表现是市场信心的基石。据Vietnamplus报道，今年1-6月越南货物出口额同比增长28.4%。但需注意下半年外需边际放缓后越南市场可能出现的信心变化。7月5日、11日和16日越南单日新增确诊数分别破1000、2000和4000例，而今年5月以前该数字均未超过100。疫情陡然升温应是这次股市调整的导火索。\n2\n全球债市——10年美债实际利率跌破-1%\n近一周，长端美债收益率继续下降，7年期及以上美债收益率整周跌4-6bp。10年美债收益率整周跌6bp，至1.31%，其中10年TIPS（实际）利率跌11bp，至-1.02%，隐含通胀预期升5bp，至2.33%。7月15日，10年TIPS利率跌破-1%，创2月12日以来新低。近期10年美债收益率降至此前难以想象的低位，主因是市场对于美国经济前景信心不足：一方面，美国财政计划规模打折，拉低了市场对美国的中长期通胀预期。且通胀指标虽然仍然短期“爆表”，但由于通胀预期已经处于历史高位，市场很难继续大幅押注。而疫苗接种速度放缓、变异病毒扰动等因素。加剧了市场对于下半年“群体免疫”能否实现，经济活动能否按时重启的担忧，致使美债实际利率明显下滑。前期市场已经很大程度上将乐观预期纳入资产定价，造就了不断创新高的美股和美国公司债，近期市场无疑正在经历预期上的巨大变化。全球债市方面，大部分地区10y国债/公债继续随美债走牛，但泰国、马来西亚等地区因疫情急剧恶化、国债收益率上升。\n\n\n3\n商品市场——油价回落，黑色系连涨，农产品反弹\n近一周，国际油价明显回调，WTI原油和布伦特原油期货价整周分别跌3.7%和2.6%，分别收于71.81和73.59美元/桶。然而，截至7月9日当周，EIA美国原油库存继续下降790万桶，下降速度与前两周基本持平。近一周油价波动的主因是供给和需求预期变化：供给方面，阿联酋与OPEC恢复谈判意味着增产计划有望顺利进行（沙特同意将阿联酋的减产基准调高，以换取阿联酋同意将整体减产协议从2022年4月延长至当年年底）；需求方面，近期新冠疫情扰动以及市场对于美国经济“见顶”的担忧，都可能一定程度上使市场对原油需求的判断更加谨慎。我们在报告《油价会不会是下一个“灰犀牛”？》中指出，供给约束是下半年油价走势之关键。目前，美国页岩油增产受限是大概率，未来需密切关注OPEC+能否坚守前期增产承诺。假如未出现大幅增产，则下半年国际油价可能在70-80美元/桶区间高位震荡。\n国内黑色系商品（铁矿石、螺纹钢、动力煤等）价格连续2-3周上涨。我们在3月报告《大宗商品的“超级周期”来了吗？》提示了“绿色泡沫”的风险，因铜价涨价背后，除了真实供需矛盾外，还有来自资本市场的炒作与助推。LME铜价自6月中旬显著回调后，近期保持在9100-9500美元/吨内窄幅震荡。目前，LME铜库存升至近一年以来的高位，“拜登基建”缩水亦对需求预期形成打压，铜供需紧张的局面出现一些缓解迹象。未来一段时间，市场通胀预期与风险偏好亦可能于高位回落，铜价上行或更加困难，可能经历更多波动。\n4\n外汇市场——美元指数创2季度以来新高\n7月13日美元指数升至92.79，超过7月7日92.72的前期高点，创下今年4月以来的新高。如何理解近期美债收益率下降与美元升值的关系？我们认为，需要注意美国经济纵向和横向比较的区别。近期，美债市场正在交易美国经济“见顶”，这是美债利率明显回落的主要驱动力量。然而，近期包括英国在内的多地疫情反扑，除欧元区外的非美地区经济前景仍然堪忧。因此，美国经济在今年的相对表现仍然是“一枝独秀”的，市场对于美元阶段走强的预期也在不断强化。我们继续维持下半年美元有望阶段性走强的判断（参考我们报告《美元下一步》）。此外，最近还有一些新的变化支撑美元走强：欧洲央行调整货币政策决策后，欧洲央行可能进一步加快扩表，并延缓Taper，美欧央行货币政策节奏的差异，可能令美元兑欧元的升值空间进一步释放。值得注意的是，美元自新冠疫情爆发以来主要是对发达市场贬值，而今年以来对新兴市场的价值基本持平于2019年下半年水平，这或意味着新兴市场货币贬值的空间是相对有限的。近一周，比特币价格触碰今年2月以来新低。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"OEX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"DOG":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SH":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"QLD":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"DJX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4950,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170732516,"gmtCreate":1626450333435,"gmtModify":1703760510873,"author":{"id":"3555497604132927","authorId":"3555497604132927","name":"尤大成","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b97d814f3ef1f69dc6b55b9de20e7a45","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555497604132927","idStr":"3555497604132927"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/170732516","repostId":"1135978719","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4804,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":true}