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- 小狗1122小狗1122
  ·2021-09-05
  The crucial point in time.it will be reached 1000 sooner or later. but it just depends on the time
  Can Tesla Stock Reach $1000 As Momentum Returns?
  Tesla stock started 2021 on the wrong footing but has since recovered strongly as it outperformed General Motors and Ford in the last three months.Investors should move on to using EBIT multiples to value the stock given the company's strong expected EBIT growth momentum moving forward.Some investors often missed out on momentum as one of the key factors driving Tesla's stock price, leading them to adopt a surprisingly bearish stance.Tesla, Inc. receives one of the highest coverage by the Stree
  Can Tesla Stock Reach $1000 As Momentum Returns?
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- 小狗1122小狗1122
  ·2021-07-13
  It’s sounds good
  新版软件拉动特斯拉收涨超4%，股价站上685美元
  周一特斯拉收涨逾4%，报685.7美元。消息称，特斯拉开始通过无线方式，为购买Full Self Driving(全自动驾驶)的用户把软件升级到FSD9版本。特斯拉刚刚对其全自动驾驶软件进行了很长
  新版软件拉动特斯拉收涨超4%，股价站上685美元
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(TSLA) receives one of the highest coverage by the Street as 33 analysts pitched in with their thesis on Tesla, which we think is arguably one of the most contentious stocks in the US with a target price that has found little agreement as the Street's best minds derived a wide target price range from $540 to $860, including 14 very bullish/bullish ratings, 12 neutral ratings, and 7 very bearish/bearish ones.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54d68b6642f907ee5d81c7bc996b636d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Street's mean target price and ratings. Data source: Seeking Alpha Premium</span></p>\n<p>In case we forgot to mention, Ark Invest's super Tesla bull CEO/CIO Cathie Wood recently defended her thesis on Tesla and even emphasized that she didn't see any bubble forming in Tesla's case as the Street's indecisiveness on the company (which is also reflected in the neutral rating above) reflected the market's uncertain position where she believes is conducive for Tesla to climb the wall of worry and move towards the firm's2025 target price of $3,000.</p>\n<p>In this article, we help our readers understand whether Tesla stock can reach $1,000 (first) and the key underlying factors to consider to reach the key milestone.</p>\n<p>Before discussing further, in case you are new to Tesla, you may consider reading up on our recent articles on Tesla to help you understand Tesla's business model and market opportunity in greater detail (link to the articles are appendedhereandhere).</p>\n<h3>Tesla Stock Recent Performance</h3>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d78527f2a28bd487dfcfb5765ec5138a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>TSLA Vs. F Vs. GM 3M performance (as of 02 Sep 21).</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe48fa6769132393855a57b1d6bd422\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Tesla Vs. VLUE Vs. VUG 3M performance (as of 02 Sep 21).</span></p>\n<p>There is no doubt that Tesla stock has significantly underperformed the broad market in 2021 with a 4.83% YTD return as of 02 Sep 21. However, the stock has been performing well lately, as it notched an 18.6% return over the last 3 months, which significantly outperformed Ford (F) stock -11% return, and General Motors (GM) stock -17.1% return, as the growth-to-value rotation's momentum fizzled out spectacularly, with growth investing regaining center stage among dip buyers as readers can easily observe from Vanguard Growth ETF's (VUG) outperformance against iShares Value Factor ETF (VLUE) in the last 3 months.</p>\n<p>Therefore, with momentum having returned to growth investing and Tesla stock, we think it's an opportune time for us to help investors to consider whether Tesla could be on its way to break its previous post-split all-time high (ATH) of $900 and reach the $1,000 milestone.</p>\n<h3>Focus on Tesla's EBIT Growth</h3>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b6e2fd23dafe3a5ebff061d0bbee412\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Quarterly regulatory credits revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p>\n<p>Tesla's Q2 numbers rebutted a key criticism that detractors often labeled: that the company depends mainly on regulatory credits to generate its profits. In the recent earnings release, Tesla reported a highly impressive quarterly operating income of $1.36B, representing an impressive YoY increase of 308.3%. Moreover, despite Tesla posting its weakest performance for regulatory credits sales of $354M over the last 5 quarters, which clearly demonstrates that the company is making huge strides in its underlying operating performances as it scales.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c95f5b5e59b532167d0cad3569032ea2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>LTM EBIT. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>Importantly, the company has steadily improved its EBIT profile as it scales its operations and achieved an LTM EBIT margin of 7.8% on an EBIT of $3.25B.</p>\n<p>Therefore, we think investors must consider how Tesla will grow its EBIT profitability moving forward to understand how to value Tesla appropriately and test the thesis on whether Tesla stock has the valuation foundation to reach the $1,000 milestone.</p>\n<h3>How Fast is Tesla Expected to Grow its EBIT Next?</h3>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de994736c433e76a039925072a652626\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Street's mean consensus estimates. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89faa434742b5012620921e2a463b67c\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Estimates CAGR (FY21 to FY25). Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>Readers should be able to easily glean from the above where it's clear that even the \"neutral\" Street analysts expect Tesla's operating performance to continue to shine moving forward as revenue is expected to reach $120.4B by FY25 (which is 17.2% of Ark's $700B FY25 forecast), which would represent an impressive CAGR of 24.4%.</p>\n<p>Furthermore, if investors consider the revenue CAGR of General Motors (5.15%), Toyota (3.14%) (TM), and Volkswagen (4.33%) (OTCPK:VWAGY) over the same period, the Street is certainly expecting Tesla to continue marching forward strongly in its quest to expand its budding electric vehicles (EV) leadership in the automotive market which is undergoing an immense transformation as the legacy automakers are busy preparing for their massive pivot to the EV market in the next few years.</p>\n<p>While we think Tesla's expected revenue CAGR certainly looks impressive, what's even more important is that its EBIT and EBITDA are expected to grow even faster than its revenue, as the CAGR for EBIT and EBITDA is expected to reach 43.8% and 26.7%, respectively.</p>\n<p>Investors who have been used to looking at revenue multiples (EV/Rev or Price/Sales) to value Tesla previously are encouraged to consider valuing Tesla using either EBITDA or EBIT multiples to arrive at meaningful valuation conclusions given the company's expected outperformance in EBIT or EBITDA growth.</p>\n<p>To help our readers to understand how they can look at Tesla using either of these two metrics, in the following section, we would present our valuation model that considers a blended comp set, as well as a comp set that considers Tesla as a Tech company with software as a focus for our readers to make sense of the company's valuation.</p>\n<h3>Making Sense of Tesla's EBIT Multiples</h3>\n<p>We have elected to use EBIT multiples for this discussion. We consider it more meaningful for comparison given Tesla's relatively high CapEx margins, which is expected for an automaker.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4913a49c673db29ea52abfe6b10af357\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Automotive Blended comps set. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50e34a70e430f0f41134456e7829e122\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Software comps set. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>Let us first give a quick introduction to the logic behind both comps sets. The first one is a composite set that comprises some of Tesla's automotive peers. Readers should be able to glean that based on the forward multiples (FY+3 or CY24) of Tesla's pure-play electric peers such as Nio Inc. (NIO) and BYD Company Ltd (OTCPK:BYDDF), Tesla's EV/FY24 EBIT multiple of 64.7x didn't seem unreasonable especially as the company is expected to grow its EBIT much faster and have higher margins than the peers listed in the automotive comps set.</p>\n<p>Next, when we positioned Tesla, Inc. against the leading and emerging software peers, we also didn't find Tesla's CY24 EBIT multiple as excessive either. However, we certainly think it aligns with the peers listed in the comps set as Tesla's EBIT growth rate is impressive. Therefore we think it deserves to be rated in line with emerging software leaders like Palantir (PLTR) or Zoom (ZM), even though its EBIT margins are lower than its software counterparts.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80e148fe9d8306e28b7b149aeceee9d5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"303\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Fair value computation (with reference to automotive blended comps). Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>In arriving at Tesla's fair value, we rounded down our selected EBIT multiple to 60x at the midpoint and derived a fair value of about $713. Based on the closing price of $739, there is a slight potential downside of -3.6% for TSLA.</p>\n<p>We think our analysis shows that Tesla's tremendous EBIT growth and progress has been the key pillar underpinning its premium valuation, which didn't look out of line with its pure-play EV peers or the software counterparts.</p>\n<p>So, if we consider Tesla to be fairly valued right now using estimates up to FY24, then what could drive the stock to reach its $1,000 in the next few years?</p>\n<h3>Market Momentum and Growth Optimism</h3>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49acf3a1f6a4f9cb003baddf701d2339\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"313\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Seeking Alpha Quant Rating. Source: Seeking Alpha Premium</span></p>\n<p>Readers can observe clearly that apart from the value factor, Tesla is rated impressively in the other important areas, especially for Growth and Profitability, as it received the best possible A+ rating. On the other hand, we think TSLA received an F grade for Value, mainly because the quant system compared it against the automotive sector, where the legacy automakers' relatively low valuations affected Tesla's rating.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c08c2d3204a494c7d8fa8b72133ebc49\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Momentum Grade. Source: Seeking Alpha Premium</span></p>\n<p>Importantly, TSLA's 3M momentum grade of A clearly underscores the huge improvement in upward momentum for the stock as the bulls have been gaining traction in their quest to return the stock to its ATH that was achieved in Jan 21. Unfortunately, we think some investors often do not account for the power of momentum in their analysis, leading to a bearish stance at important inflection points of returning upward momentum for Tesla stock.</p>\n<p>Even though we think valuation is an important component driving stock prices (and valuation is a highly subjective matter for Tesla, as readers could easily refer to the wide range in the Street's forecasts to understand this), readers need to understand that investors' optimism for its growth prospects are crucial factors to consider as this drives momentum. In Tesla's case, we believe these bullish investors consider the huge market opportunities not just in the EV market, but also the company's prospects in autonomous driving, in robotaxi, in insurance, in energy, among others that are key driving forces behind their growth optimism that Tesla would be able to outperform the market's expectations, which would lead to further value expansion.</p>\n<p>The key risk here for investors to note is that we think bearish investors correctly point out that Tesla still seems far away from achieving these goals. Without these, bearish investors think there's no way that Tesla would be able to sustain its premium valuation.</p>\n<p>On the other hand, we have also shown that Tesla's current valuation may not seem out of line with its other pure-play EV peers, and so the bulls can certainly justify Tesla's current valuation. What's more challenging for investors is to present a path towards the $1,000 milestone. In this case, we think neither the bulls nor the bears could put forward a convincing fundamental argument right now based on realizing Tesla's market opportunity.</p>\n<h3>TSLA Stock Price Action and Trend Analysis”</h3>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d36971ff9d95d8a510b4851f36f1fd40\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>TSLA weekly chart.</span></p>\n<p>We highlighted previously that despite all the negative press and bearish shoutouts in the market, Tesla stock has never failed to deliver since the COVID-19 market bottom. We are not talking about the fantastic returns that TSLA provided its investors with its monstrous run in 2020, but about the robust long-term momentum that we can clearly observe in Tesla's price action.</p>\n<p>The rotation in Feb 21 (1st bottom) and May 21 (second bottom) created enough negative sentiments in the market for the stock back then, which not only took out the late bullish investors who were chasing the rally but also bearish investors who were lured into the weak sentiments in Feb 21 and May 21 to adopt a bearish against the EV leader as the strong buyers returned to shake out these bearish bets quickly.</p>\n<p>Bear traps are potent methods used by strong and astute market participants to lure and trap bearish investors at the right time to profit off their negative sentiments and turn the stock around for them to go long just when these unsuspecting bearish investors expect the weak sentiments to carry on. Readers need to go back to the coverage of Tesla during Feb and May to find out just how bearish the market was back then. The double bottom price action in May was a bullish signal for Tesla. Unfortunately, many investors who do not have a strong grounding in reading price action often fail to spot these important signals that the market gives away from time to time.</p>\n<h3>So, Can Tesla Reach $1,000?</h3>\n<p>First, we are Tesla shareholders and have a good margin of safety from the current price. Therefore we are very comfortable holding the remainder of our positions as we have taken profit along the way to protect our capital and would leave the rest of it as a speculative bet on Tesla's future, just in case Ark's $3,000 FY25 price target comes true (as they had done so the first time around). We don't think anyone has a crystal ball to be certain that Tesla can reach $1,000 or even $2,000, or when that would happen.</p>\n<p>Despite that, we have presented our arguments for Tesla's current valuation, arguments for its momentum, price action, and long-term uptrend bias that we think is likely to point Tesla on a path towards $1,000 more than going back to $500. We hope you get our gist.</p>\n<p>Lastly, based on the current valuations and price action (it has moved off from our preferred buy point), we<i>maintain our neutral rating on Tesla</i>for now.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can Tesla Stock Reach $1000 As Momentum Returns?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan Tesla Stock Reach $1000 As Momentum Returns?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-03 16:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453330-tesla-stock-reach-1000><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla stock started 2021 on the wrong footing but has since recovered strongly as it outperformed General Motors and Ford in the last three months.\nInvestors should move on to using EBIT ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453330-tesla-stock-reach-1000\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453330-tesla-stock-reach-1000","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1168724079","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla stock started 2021 on the wrong footing but has since recovered strongly as it outperformed General Motors and Ford in the last three months.\nInvestors should move on to using EBIT multiples to value the stock given the company's strong expected EBIT growth momentum moving forward.\nSome investors often missed out on momentum as one of the key factors driving Tesla's stock price, leading them to adopt a surprisingly bearish stance.\nWhile no one has a crystal ball, we show investors what they should consider on whether the stock can reach the $1,000 milestone.\n\nInvestment Thesis\nTesla, Inc. (TSLA) receives one of the highest coverage by the Street as 33 analysts pitched in with their thesis on Tesla, which we think is arguably one of the most contentious stocks in the US with a target price that has found little agreement as the Street's best minds derived a wide target price range from $540 to $860, including 14 very bullish/bullish ratings, 12 neutral ratings, and 7 very bearish/bearish ones.\nStreet's mean target price and ratings. Data source: Seeking Alpha Premium\nIn case we forgot to mention, Ark Invest's super Tesla bull CEO/CIO Cathie Wood recently defended her thesis on Tesla and even emphasized that she didn't see any bubble forming in Tesla's case as the Street's indecisiveness on the company (which is also reflected in the neutral rating above) reflected the market's uncertain position where she believes is conducive for Tesla to climb the wall of worry and move towards the firm's2025 target price of $3,000.\nIn this article, we help our readers understand whether Tesla stock can reach $1,000 (first) and the key underlying factors to consider to reach the key milestone.\nBefore discussing further, in case you are new to Tesla, you may consider reading up on our recent articles on Tesla to help you understand Tesla's business model and market opportunity in greater detail (link to the articles are appendedhereandhere).\nTesla Stock Recent Performance\nTSLA Vs. F Vs. GM 3M performance (as of 02 Sep 21).\nTesla Vs. VLUE Vs. VUG 3M performance (as of 02 Sep 21).\nThere is no doubt that Tesla stock has significantly underperformed the broad market in 2021 with a 4.83% YTD return as of 02 Sep 21. However, the stock has been performing well lately, as it notched an 18.6% return over the last 3 months, which significantly outperformed Ford (F) stock -11% return, and General Motors (GM) stock -17.1% return, as the growth-to-value rotation's momentum fizzled out spectacularly, with growth investing regaining center stage among dip buyers as readers can easily observe from Vanguard Growth ETF's (VUG) outperformance against iShares Value Factor ETF (VLUE) in the last 3 months.\nTherefore, with momentum having returned to growth investing and Tesla stock, we think it's an opportune time for us to help investors to consider whether Tesla could be on its way to break its previous post-split all-time high (ATH) of $900 and reach the $1,000 milestone.\nFocus on Tesla's EBIT Growth\nQuarterly regulatory credits revenue. Data source: Company filings\nTesla's Q2 numbers rebutted a key criticism that detractors often labeled: that the company depends mainly on regulatory credits to generate its profits. In the recent earnings release, Tesla reported a highly impressive quarterly operating income of $1.36B, representing an impressive YoY increase of 308.3%. Moreover, despite Tesla posting its weakest performance for regulatory credits sales of $354M over the last 5 quarters, which clearly demonstrates that the company is making huge strides in its underlying operating performances as it scales.\nLTM EBIT. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nImportantly, the company has steadily improved its EBIT profile as it scales its operations and achieved an LTM EBIT margin of 7.8% on an EBIT of $3.25B.\nTherefore, we think investors must consider how Tesla will grow its EBIT profitability moving forward to understand how to value Tesla appropriately and test the thesis on whether Tesla stock has the valuation foundation to reach the $1,000 milestone.\nHow Fast is Tesla Expected to Grow its EBIT Next?\nStreet's mean consensus estimates. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEstimates CAGR (FY21 to FY25). Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nReaders should be able to easily glean from the above where it's clear that even the \"neutral\" Street analysts expect Tesla's operating performance to continue to shine moving forward as revenue is expected to reach $120.4B by FY25 (which is 17.2% of Ark's $700B FY25 forecast), which would represent an impressive CAGR of 24.4%.\nFurthermore, if investors consider the revenue CAGR of General Motors (5.15%), Toyota (3.14%) (TM), and Volkswagen (4.33%) (OTCPK:VWAGY) over the same period, the Street is certainly expecting Tesla to continue marching forward strongly in its quest to expand its budding electric vehicles (EV) leadership in the automotive market which is undergoing an immense transformation as the legacy automakers are busy preparing for their massive pivot to the EV market in the next few years.\nWhile we think Tesla's expected revenue CAGR certainly looks impressive, what's even more important is that its EBIT and EBITDA are expected to grow even faster than its revenue, as the CAGR for EBIT and EBITDA is expected to reach 43.8% and 26.7%, respectively.\nInvestors who have been used to looking at revenue multiples (EV/Rev or Price/Sales) to value Tesla previously are encouraged to consider valuing Tesla using either EBITDA or EBIT multiples to arrive at meaningful valuation conclusions given the company's expected outperformance in EBIT or EBITDA growth.\nTo help our readers to understand how they can look at Tesla using either of these two metrics, in the following section, we would present our valuation model that considers a blended comp set, as well as a comp set that considers Tesla as a Tech company with software as a focus for our readers to make sense of the company's valuation.\nMaking Sense of Tesla's EBIT Multiples\nWe have elected to use EBIT multiples for this discussion. We consider it more meaningful for comparison given Tesla's relatively high CapEx margins, which is expected for an automaker.\nAutomotive Blended comps set. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nSoftware comps set. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nLet us first give a quick introduction to the logic behind both comps sets. The first one is a composite set that comprises some of Tesla's automotive peers. Readers should be able to glean that based on the forward multiples (FY+3 or CY24) of Tesla's pure-play electric peers such as Nio Inc. (NIO) and BYD Company Ltd (OTCPK:BYDDF), Tesla's EV/FY24 EBIT multiple of 64.7x didn't seem unreasonable especially as the company is expected to grow its EBIT much faster and have higher margins than the peers listed in the automotive comps set.\nNext, when we positioned Tesla, Inc. against the leading and emerging software peers, we also didn't find Tesla's CY24 EBIT multiple as excessive either. However, we certainly think it aligns with the peers listed in the comps set as Tesla's EBIT growth rate is impressive. Therefore we think it deserves to be rated in line with emerging software leaders like Palantir (PLTR) or Zoom (ZM), even though its EBIT margins are lower than its software counterparts.\nFair value computation (with reference to automotive blended comps). Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nIn arriving at Tesla's fair value, we rounded down our selected EBIT multiple to 60x at the midpoint and derived a fair value of about $713. Based on the closing price of $739, there is a slight potential downside of -3.6% for TSLA.\nWe think our analysis shows that Tesla's tremendous EBIT growth and progress has been the key pillar underpinning its premium valuation, which didn't look out of line with its pure-play EV peers or the software counterparts.\nSo, if we consider Tesla to be fairly valued right now using estimates up to FY24, then what could drive the stock to reach its $1,000 in the next few years?\nMarket Momentum and Growth Optimism\nSeeking Alpha Quant Rating. Source: Seeking Alpha Premium\nReaders can observe clearly that apart from the value factor, Tesla is rated impressively in the other important areas, especially for Growth and Profitability, as it received the best possible A+ rating. On the other hand, we think TSLA received an F grade for Value, mainly because the quant system compared it against the automotive sector, where the legacy automakers' relatively low valuations affected Tesla's rating.\nMomentum Grade. Source: Seeking Alpha Premium\nImportantly, TSLA's 3M momentum grade of A clearly underscores the huge improvement in upward momentum for the stock as the bulls have been gaining traction in their quest to return the stock to its ATH that was achieved in Jan 21. Unfortunately, we think some investors often do not account for the power of momentum in their analysis, leading to a bearish stance at important inflection points of returning upward momentum for Tesla stock.\nEven though we think valuation is an important component driving stock prices (and valuation is a highly subjective matter for Tesla, as readers could easily refer to the wide range in the Street's forecasts to understand this), readers need to understand that investors' optimism for its growth prospects are crucial factors to consider as this drives momentum. In Tesla's case, we believe these bullish investors consider the huge market opportunities not just in the EV market, but also the company's prospects in autonomous driving, in robotaxi, in insurance, in energy, among others that are key driving forces behind their growth optimism that Tesla would be able to outperform the market's expectations, which would lead to further value expansion.\nThe key risk here for investors to note is that we think bearish investors correctly point out that Tesla still seems far away from achieving these goals. Without these, bearish investors think there's no way that Tesla would be able to sustain its premium valuation.\nOn the other hand, we have also shown that Tesla's current valuation may not seem out of line with its other pure-play EV peers, and so the bulls can certainly justify Tesla's current valuation. What's more challenging for investors is to present a path towards the $1,000 milestone. In this case, we think neither the bulls nor the bears could put forward a convincing fundamental argument right now based on realizing Tesla's market opportunity.\nTSLA Stock Price Action and Trend Analysis”\nTSLA weekly chart.\nWe highlighted previously that despite all the negative press and bearish shoutouts in the market, Tesla stock has never failed to deliver since the COVID-19 market bottom. We are not talking about the fantastic returns that TSLA provided its investors with its monstrous run in 2020, but about the robust long-term momentum that we can clearly observe in Tesla's price action.\nThe rotation in Feb 21 (1st bottom) and May 21 (second bottom) created enough negative sentiments in the market for the stock back then, which not only took out the late bullish investors who were chasing the rally but also bearish investors who were lured into the weak sentiments in Feb 21 and May 21 to adopt a bearish against the EV leader as the strong buyers returned to shake out these bearish bets quickly.\nBear traps are potent methods used by strong and astute market participants to lure and trap bearish investors at the right time to profit off their negative sentiments and turn the stock around for them to go long just when these unsuspecting bearish investors expect the weak sentiments to carry on. Readers need to go back to the coverage of Tesla during Feb and May to find out just how bearish the market was back then. The double bottom price action in May was a bullish signal for Tesla. Unfortunately, many investors who do not have a strong grounding in reading price action often fail to spot these important signals that the market gives away from time to time.\nSo, Can Tesla Reach $1,000?\nFirst, we are Tesla shareholders and have a good margin of safety from the current price. Therefore we are very comfortable holding the remainder of our positions as we have taken profit along the way to protect our capital and would leave the rest of it as a speculative bet on Tesla's future, just in case Ark's $3,000 FY25 price target comes true (as they had done so the first time around). We don't think anyone has a crystal ball to be certain that Tesla can reach $1,000 or even $2,000, or when that would happen.\nDespite that, we have presented our arguments for Tesla's current valuation, arguments for its momentum, price action, and long-term uptrend bias that we think is likely to point Tesla on a path towards $1,000 more than going back to $500. We hope you get our gist.\nLastly, based on the current valuations and price action (it has moved off from our preferred buy point), wemaintain our neutral rating on Teslafor now.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":505,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142667625,"gmtCreate":1626147181967,"gmtModify":1703754294180,"author":{"id":"3560632730543985","authorId":"3560632730543985","name":"小狗1122","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d80f2ee274d56c380ab8b3789038f83b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560632730543985","authorIdStr":"3560632730543985"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"It’s sounds good","listText":"It’s sounds good","text":"It’s sounds good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/142667625","repostId":"1150214678","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1150214678","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626131810,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1150214678?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-13 07:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"新版软件拉动特斯拉收涨超4%，股价站上685美元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150214678","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周一特斯拉收涨逾4%，报685.7美元。消息称，特斯拉开始通过无线方式，为购买Full Self Driving(全自动驾驶)的用户把软件升级到FSD9版本。\n\n特斯拉刚刚对其全自动驾驶软件进行了很长","content":"<p>周一<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>收涨逾4%，报685.7美元。消息称，特斯拉开始通过无线方式，为购买Full Self Driving(全自动驾驶)的用户把软件升级到FSD9版本。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca74337a169042d727cb3a1dbe612d2b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>特斯拉刚刚对其全自动驾驶软件进行了很长一段时间内最大的升级之一。 报道称，特斯拉正在向抢先体验计划用户推出FSD 测试版 9，这是一个相当大的升级。尽管名称由来已久，但它并不是完全自主的，但它可以实现许多 Autopilot 驾驶员辅助非公路（例如变道和转弯），同时提供许多修复。您还将看到经过改进的可视化，提供“额外的周围信息”，并以其他方式更好地了解汽车所看到的内容。</p>\n<p>该更新同时引用了最近激活的功能，该功能使用机舱摄像头确保您在使用Autopilot 时保持注意力。不管改进如何，马斯克都敦促 beta 测试人员“请保持握紧方向盘”，并准备好随时掌握方向盘。</p>\n<p>正如指出的那样，第 9 版已经有很长一段时间了。特斯拉于 2018 年 8 月首次承诺开始激活 FSD 功能，埃隆马斯克发誓要在 2020 年让“超过一百万”辆汽车自动驾驶。显然，这并没有成功——即使是当年 10 月的小测试也没有成功接近让你的手离开方向盘。这个最新版本表明取得了一些进展，即使在不久的将来真正的自动驾驶可能准备就绪。</p>\n<p>此外，消息称，勃兰登堡州经济部长Jörg Steinbach在最近对德国媒体的一份声明中表示，他预计将在2021年第四季度的某个时候发布对特斯拉(TSLA.O)柏林超级工厂的最终批准。如果获得批准，柏林工厂的Model Y投产日期将比预期晚几个月左右。特斯拉最初预计柏林工厂将于2021年7月投产，但因项目延期，此前CEO马斯克预计该工厂将于年内开始生产电动汽车。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n新版软件拉动特斯拉收涨超4%，股价站上685美元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-13 07:16</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>周一<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>收涨逾4%，报685.7美元。消息称，特斯拉开始通过无线方式，为购买Full Self Driving(全自动驾驶)的用户把软件升级到FSD9版本。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca74337a169042d727cb3a1dbe612d2b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>特斯拉刚刚对其全自动驾驶软件进行了很长一段时间内最大的升级之一。 报道称，特斯拉正在向抢先体验计划用户推出FSD 测试版 9，这是一个相当大的升级。尽管名称由来已久，但它并不是完全自主的，但它可以实现许多 Autopilot 驾驶员辅助非公路（例如变道和转弯），同时提供许多修复。您还将看到经过改进的可视化，提供“额外的周围信息”，并以其他方式更好地了解汽车所看到的内容。</p>\n<p>该更新同时引用了最近激活的功能，该功能使用机舱摄像头确保您在使用Autopilot 时保持注意力。不管改进如何，马斯克都敦促 beta 测试人员“请保持握紧方向盘”，并准备好随时掌握方向盘。</p>\n<p>正如指出的那样，第 9 版已经有很长一段时间了。特斯拉于 2018 年 8 月首次承诺开始激活 FSD 功能，埃隆马斯克发誓要在 2020 年让“超过一百万”辆汽车自动驾驶。显然，这并没有成功——即使是当年 10 月的小测试也没有成功接近让你的手离开方向盘。这个最新版本表明取得了一些进展，即使在不久的将来真正的自动驾驶可能准备就绪。</p>\n<p>此外，消息称，勃兰登堡州经济部长Jörg Steinbach在最近对德国媒体的一份声明中表示，他预计将在2021年第四季度的某个时候发布对特斯拉(TSLA.O)柏林超级工厂的最终批准。如果获得批准，柏林工厂的Model Y投产日期将比预期晚几个月左右。特斯拉最初预计柏林工厂将于2021年7月投产，但因项目延期，此前CEO马斯克预计该工厂将于年内开始生产电动汽车。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8541380317eba7ef07da7c529e879c07","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150214678","content_text":"周一特斯拉收涨逾4%，报685.7美元。消息称，特斯拉开始通过无线方式，为购买Full Self Driving(全自动驾驶)的用户把软件升级到FSD9版本。\n\n特斯拉刚刚对其全自动驾驶软件进行了很长一段时间内最大的升级之一。 报道称，特斯拉正在向抢先体验计划用户推出FSD 测试版 9，这是一个相当大的升级。尽管名称由来已久，但它并不是完全自主的，但它可以实现许多 Autopilot 驾驶员辅助非公路（例如变道和转弯），同时提供许多修复。您还将看到经过改进的可视化，提供“额外的周围信息”，并以其他方式更好地了解汽车所看到的内容。\n该更新同时引用了最近激活的功能，该功能使用机舱摄像头确保您在使用Autopilot 时保持注意力。不管改进如何，马斯克都敦促 beta 测试人员“请保持握紧方向盘”，并准备好随时掌握方向盘。\n正如指出的那样，第 9 版已经有很长一段时间了。特斯拉于 2018 年 8 月首次承诺开始激活 FSD 功能，埃隆马斯克发誓要在 2020 年让“超过一百万”辆汽车自动驾驶。显然，这并没有成功——即使是当年 10 月的小测试也没有成功接近让你的手离开方向盘。这个最新版本表明取得了一些进展，即使在不久的将来真正的自动驾驶可能准备就绪。\n此外，消息称，勃兰登堡州经济部长Jörg Steinbach在最近对德国媒体的一份声明中表示，他预计将在2021年第四季度的某个时候发布对特斯拉(TSLA.O)柏林超级工厂的最终批准。如果获得批准，柏林工厂的Model Y投产日期将比预期晚几个月左右。特斯拉最初预计柏林工厂将于2021年7月投产，但因项目延期，此前CEO马斯克预计该工厂将于年内开始生产电动汽车。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":732,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":true}