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Futre
Futre
·
2023-03-14
$ARK Genomic Revolution Multi-Sector ETF(ARKG)$
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Futre
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2023-03-11
$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$
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Futre
Futre
·
2022-03-19
👍
Brazil's "Alipay" StoneCo once rose by more than 40% during the session
3月18日讯，巴西“支付宝”StoneCo盘中一度上涨超40%，创该公司2018年美国IPO以来最大盘中涨幅。StoneCo也是“股神”巴菲特旗下伯克希尔哈撒韦持仓股之一。
Brazil's "Alipay" StoneCo once rose by more than 40% during the session
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Futre
Futre
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2022-03-18
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Rate hike 7 times this year, can the Fed do it?
部分经济学家对美联储加息7次的预期表示怀疑，认为他们是否真的采取行动，是一个悬而未决的问题。美联储激进的加息计划，可能会在对抗通胀的同时使经济陷入衰退。周三，美联储将利率上调了25个基点，这是自201
Rate hike 7 times this year, can the Fed do it?
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Futre
Futre
·
2022-03-13
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Global attention! The Fed's "boots land" next week, will risk sentiment reverse?
下周，投资者将迎来美联储利率决议，市场预期此次会议将拉开加息的帷幕。海托华首席投资策略师斯蒂芬妮•林克(Stephanie Link) 表示：“从投资的角度来看，历史是站在我们这一边的。我们将拭目以待
Global attention! The Fed's "boots land" next week, will risk sentiment reverse?
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Futre
Futre
·
2022-02-02
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Hong Kong stock strategy in February: will usher in an improvement in risk appetite, focusing on the "mean reversion" market
1、1月观点及行情回顾1.1、观点回顾：1月策略《港股曙光再现》。1月1日报告《港股曙光再现》中强调，2022年1月港股曙光再现，内外部环境有利于反弹的时间窗口：国内稳经济政策发力，2022年一季度货
Hong Kong stock strategy in February: will usher in an improvement in risk appetite, focusing on the "mean reversion" market
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Futre
Futre
·
2022-01-27
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China Evergrande: The company plans to launch a preliminary restructuring plan in the next 6 months
1月26日，在今日晚间召开的投资人会议上，中国恒大执行董事肖恩表示，中国恒大董事会及风险化解委员会及管理团队，正共同制定全面、细致、有效的计划，研究各种潜在方案，计划于未来6个月内推出初步重组方案。
China Evergrande: The company plans to launch a preliminary restructuring plan in the next 6 months
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Futre
Futre
·
2021-09-02
keep going up
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Futre
Futre
·
2021-07-26
Thanks
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Futre
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2021-07-11
Keep waiting
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23:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Brazil's \"Alipay\" StoneCo once rose by more than 40% during the session","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169147645","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"3月18日讯，巴西“支付宝”StoneCo盘中一度上涨超40%，创该公司2018年美国IPO以来最大盘中涨幅。StoneCo也是“股神”巴菲特旗下伯克希尔哈撒韦持仓股之一。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>March 18th, Brazil's \"Alipay\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STNE\">StoneCo</a>It once rose by more than 40% intraday, the largest intraday increase since the company's 2018 U.S. IPO. StoneCo is also owned by \"stock god\" Buffett<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>One of Hathaway's holdings.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1260927ca2e05a04a5320752ae60887\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Brazil's \"Alipay\" StoneCo once rose by more than 40% during the session</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBrazil's \"Alipay\" StoneCo once rose by more than 40% during the session\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-03-18 23:13</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>March 18th, Brazil's \"Alipay\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STNE\">StoneCo</a>It once rose by more than 40% intraday, the largest intraday increase since the company's 2018 U.S. IPO. StoneCo is also owned by \"stock god\" Buffett<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>One of Hathaway's holdings.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1260927ca2e05a04a5320752ae60887\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2946b9cd4befcf808691bc00a8ecb1be","relate_stocks":{"BK4106":"数据处理与外包服务","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4558":"双十一","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK1588":"回港中概股","BK1591":"就地过年概念","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","STNE":"StoneCo","BK4565":"NFT概念","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK1608":"元宇宙概念","BK1575":"同股不同权","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK1586":"云计算","BK4538":"云计算","BK4524":"宅经济概念"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169147645","content_text":"3月18日讯，巴西“支付宝”StoneCo盘中一度上涨超40%，创该公司2018年美国IPO以来最大盘中涨幅。StoneCo也是“股神”巴菲特旗下伯克希尔哈撒韦持仓股之一。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":0.9,"STNE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2430,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9035167256,"gmtCreate":1647553642560,"gmtModify":1676534242366,"author":{"id":"3564108727353086","authorId":"3564108727353086","name":"Futre","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/912eae14e80f11fedbc3bdb7e10bb6d0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564108727353086","idStr":"3564108727353086"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9035167256","repostId":"1181924326","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181924326","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1647506263,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1181924326?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-17 16:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Rate hike 7 times this year, can the Fed do it?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181924326","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"部分经济学家对美联储加息7次的预期表示怀疑，认为他们是否真的采取行动，是一个悬而未决的问题。美联储激进的加息计划，可能会在对抗通胀的同时使经济陷入衰退。周三，美联储将利率上调了25个基点，这是自201","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Some economists doubt the Fed's expectation of seven rate hike, and think it is an open question whether they actually take action. The Fed's aggressive rate hike plan could plunge the economy into recession while fighting inflation.</p><p>On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points in its first rate hike since 2018. At the same time, its forecasts show that Fed officials expect six more rate hike this year and three rate hike next year.</p><p>It's a radical rate hike campaign, but it also begs a question:<b>Can the Fed succeed without seriously damaging the economy?</b></p><p><b>\"The Fed is too aggressive\"</b></p><p>Some economists believe the Fed may not act as expected because it could hurt the economy.</p><p>According to CNBC, James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Leuthold Group, said that even before the meeting, the bond market had priced in seven rate hike, but many economists had expected the Fed to only rate hike five to six times:</p><p>This has largely been priced in, but the bigger question for the market is whether or not we will see a recession. While economists didn't explicitly predict a recession, they did see a slowdown in economic growth and the outlook has become more uncertain since Russia's military action. The Ukraine crisis has also fueled inflation, as Russia is a major commodity producer, while the conflict and sanctions have raised doubts about the supply of oil, wheat and other key exports.</p><p>Simona Mocuta, chief analyst at State Street Global Advisors, made it clear:<b>\"I think the Fed has been too aggressive on that front.</b>How the economy will develop is highly uncertain. They may not materialize. But to be sure, the Fed has sent a very strong message.... I still doubt that there will be so many rate hike times. \"</p><p>Economists had expected the Federal Reserve to show a hawkish or aggressive attitude in its first rate hike. Many had argued that the Fed's decision-making was lagging because the Fed initially believed inflation was transitory, and that view has been going on for too long.</p><p>Mocuta said,<b>The Fed may rate hike several times first, but it should reconsider the path of rate hike and economic conditions in the third quarter.</b></p><p>If the Russia-Ukraine conflict improves, some pressures on inflation and supply chains will ease. Some of the supply chain pressures from the pandemic may also subside over time.</p><p>Drew Matus, chief market strategist at Metropolitan Investment Management, said:</p><p>What I'm saying is, they're sending the signals they need to send,<b>But whether they actually take action is an open question.</b>The data showed that the U.S. CPI jumped to a 40-year high of 7.9% in February and is expected to rise further in March.</p><p>The Fed expects core inflation to be 4.1% this year and fall to 2.6% next year after the rate hike. They also forecast GDP growth of 4% this year and falling to 2.2% by 2023. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 3.5% and will remain at that level.</p><p>Matus believes: \"A lot of their predictions are meaningless... there are some loopholes in logic.\"</p><p>He pointed out,<b>One of the loopholes is that if the Fed does raise interest rates at the expected rate, it will not realize this economic forecast.</b></p><p>'They mean it'</p><p>But others do expect the Fed to continue its rate hike, with some Wall Streeters predicting seven rate hike this year.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Mark Cabana, head of U.S. short-term interest rate strategy, said:</p><p>They mean it. They're really way behind the curve in terms of inflation. Those who think they can't do 7 rate hike, will face a severe blow. Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, believes the market should take the Fed's word for it:</p><p>We can't risk stagflation. They admit that they now expect inflation to persist longer, and that it's not just a problem for Ukraine. Seeing the market's reaction, they clearly don't believe it. This is a major shift in the outlook for the Fed's rate hike. They're doing it for a reason, and it's not just someone at the Fed.<b>This is a systemic move by the entire Fed, even by the most dovish Fed officials.</b>Swonk said the Fed's forecast for the unemployment rate may not be reasonable, but the Fed does want to cool inflation.</p><p>There are risks if Fed officials act as expected. She said:<b>\"When I simulated the scenario of seven rate hike, which is my forecast, I thought the average growth of the economy would stop at 1% in the second half of the year. This was a semi-hard landing.\"</b></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Rate hike 7 times this year, can the Fed do it?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRate hike 7 times this year, can the Fed do it?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-03-17 16:37</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Some economists doubt the Fed's expectation of seven rate hike, and think it is an open question whether they actually take action. The Fed's aggressive rate hike plan could plunge the economy into recession while fighting inflation.</p><p>On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points in its first rate hike since 2018. At the same time, its forecasts show that Fed officials expect six more rate hike this year and three rate hike next year.</p><p>It's a radical rate hike campaign, but it also begs a question:<b>Can the Fed succeed without seriously damaging the economy?</b></p><p><b>\"The Fed is too aggressive\"</b></p><p>Some economists believe the Fed may not act as expected because it could hurt the economy.</p><p>According to CNBC, James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Leuthold Group, said that even before the meeting, the bond market had priced in seven rate hike, but many economists had expected the Fed to only rate hike five to six times:</p><p>This has largely been priced in, but the bigger question for the market is whether or not we will see a recession. While economists didn't explicitly predict a recession, they did see a slowdown in economic growth and the outlook has become more uncertain since Russia's military action. The Ukraine crisis has also fueled inflation, as Russia is a major commodity producer, while the conflict and sanctions have raised doubts about the supply of oil, wheat and other key exports.</p><p>Simona Mocuta, chief analyst at State Street Global Advisors, made it clear:<b>\"I think the Fed has been too aggressive on that front.</b>How the economy will develop is highly uncertain. They may not materialize. But to be sure, the Fed has sent a very strong message.... I still doubt that there will be so many rate hike times. \"</p><p>Economists had expected the Federal Reserve to show a hawkish or aggressive attitude in its first rate hike. Many had argued that the Fed's decision-making was lagging because the Fed initially believed inflation was transitory, and that view has been going on for too long.</p><p>Mocuta said,<b>The Fed may rate hike several times first, but it should reconsider the path of rate hike and economic conditions in the third quarter.</b></p><p>If the Russia-Ukraine conflict improves, some pressures on inflation and supply chains will ease. Some of the supply chain pressures from the pandemic may also subside over time.</p><p>Drew Matus, chief market strategist at Metropolitan Investment Management, said:</p><p>What I'm saying is, they're sending the signals they need to send,<b>But whether they actually take action is an open question.</b>The data showed that the U.S. CPI jumped to a 40-year high of 7.9% in February and is expected to rise further in March.</p><p>The Fed expects core inflation to be 4.1% this year and fall to 2.6% next year after the rate hike. They also forecast GDP growth of 4% this year and falling to 2.2% by 2023. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 3.5% and will remain at that level.</p><p>Matus believes: \"A lot of their predictions are meaningless... there are some loopholes in logic.\"</p><p>He pointed out,<b>One of the loopholes is that if the Fed does raise interest rates at the expected rate, it will not realize this economic forecast.</b></p><p>'They mean it'</p><p>But others do expect the Fed to continue its rate hike, with some Wall Streeters predicting seven rate hike this year.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Mark Cabana, head of U.S. short-term interest rate strategy, said:</p><p>They mean it. They're really way behind the curve in terms of inflation. Those who think they can't do 7 rate hike, will face a severe blow. Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, believes the market should take the Fed's word for it:</p><p>We can't risk stagflation. They admit that they now expect inflation to persist longer, and that it's not just a problem for Ukraine. Seeing the market's reaction, they clearly don't believe it. This is a major shift in the outlook for the Fed's rate hike. They're doing it for a reason, and it's not just someone at the Fed.<b>This is a systemic move by the entire Fed, even by the most dovish Fed officials.</b>Swonk said the Fed's forecast for the unemployment rate may not be reasonable, but the Fed does want to cool inflation.</p><p>There are risks if Fed officials act as expected. She said:<b>\"When I simulated the scenario of seven rate hike, which is my forecast, I thought the average growth of the economy would stop at 1% in the second half of the year. This was a semi-hard landing.\"</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{"513500":"标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","OEX":"标普100",".DJI":"道琼斯","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181924326","content_text":"部分经济学家对美联储加息7次的预期表示怀疑，认为他们是否真的采取行动，是一个悬而未决的问题。美联储激进的加息计划，可能会在对抗通胀的同时使经济陷入衰退。周三，美联储将利率上调了25个基点，这是自2018年以来的首次加息。与此同时，其预测显示，美联储官员预计今年将再加息6次，明年将加息3次。这是一场激进的加息运动，但也引出了一个问题：美联储能否在不严重损害经济的情况下取得成功？“美联储过于激进了”一些经济学家认为，美联储可能不会按预期行事，因为这可能会损害经济。据CNBC报道，Leuthold Group的首席投资策略师James Paulsen表示，甚至在会议之前，债券市场就已经消化了7次加息，但许多经济学家曾预计，美联储只会加息5到6次：这在很大程度上已经被消化，但市场面临的更大问题是，我们是否会看到经济衰退。虽然经济学家没有明确预测经济会衰退，但他们确实看到经济增长放缓，而且自从俄罗斯的军事行动以来，前景变得更加不明朗。乌克兰危机也加剧了通胀，因为俄罗斯是主要的大宗商品生产国，而冲突和制裁引发了人们对石油、小麦和其他主要出口产品供应的怀疑。道富环球顾问首席分析师Simona Mocuta明确表示：“我认为美联储在这方面过于激进了。经济如何发展是高度不确定的。它们可能不会实现。但可以肯定的是，美联储传递了一个非常强烈的信息. ...我仍然怀疑是否会有这么多的加息次数。”经济学家们曾预计，美联储在首次加息时，会表现出鹰派或激进的态度。许多人曾认为美联储的决策滞后，因为美联储最初认为通胀是暂时的，而这种观点已经持续了太久。Mocuta表示，美联储可能会先加息几次，但在第三季度时应重新考虑加息的路径和经济状况。如果俄乌冲突有所改善，通胀和供应链方面的一些压力将会缓解。随着时间的推移，疫情带来的一些供应链压力也可能消退。大都会投资管理公司首席市场策略师Drew Matus表示：我想说的是，他们在发出他们需要发出的信号，但他们是否真的采取行动，这是一个悬而未决的问题。数据显示，美国2月份CPI跃升至7.9%的40年新高，预计3月份还会进一步上升。美联储预计，今年的核心通胀率将为4.1%，加息后明年将降至2.6%。他们还预测今年GDP将增长4%，到2023年将降至2.2%。预计失业率将降至3.5%，并将维持在这一水平。Matus认为：“他们的很多预测都是没有意义的...在逻辑上有一些漏洞。”他指出，其中一个漏洞是，如果美联储真的按照预期的速度升息，将无法实现这一经济预测。“他们是认真的”但其他人确实预计美联储会继续加息，一些华尔街人士预测今年将加息7次。美国银行美国短期利率策略主管Mark Cabana表示：他们是认真的。他们在通胀方面真的远远落后于曲线。那些认为他们不能进行7次加息的人，将面临严重的打击。Grant Thornton的首席经济学家Diane Swonk认为，市场应该相信美联储的话：我们不能冒着滞胀的风险。他们承认，他们现在预计通胀会持续更长时间，而且这不仅仅是乌克兰的问题。看到市场的反应，他们显然不相信。这是美联储加息前景的重大转变。他们这么做是有原因的，不仅仅是美联储的某个人。这是整个美联储的系统性举措，即使是最鸽派的美联储官员也不例外。Swonk表示，美联储对失业率的预测可能不合理，但美联储确实希望给通胀降温。如果美联储官员按照预期的行动，就存在风险。她说：“当我模拟7次加息的情景时，也就是我的预测，我认为经济在下半年的平均增长将止步于1%。这是一次半硬着陆。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"513500":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SH":0.9,"DXD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2894,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9036275094,"gmtCreate":1647134817837,"gmtModify":1676534196961,"author":{"id":"3564108727353086","authorId":"3564108727353086","name":"Futre","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/912eae14e80f11fedbc3bdb7e10bb6d0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564108727353086","idStr":"3564108727353086"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9036275094","repostId":"2218249601","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2218249601","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1647046791,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2218249601?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-12 08:59","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Global attention! The Fed's \"boots land\" next week, will risk sentiment reverse?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2218249601","media":"Wind万得","summary":"下周，投资者将迎来美联储利率决议，市场预期此次会议将拉开加息的帷幕。海托华首席投资策略师斯蒂芬妮•林克(Stephanie Link) 表示：“从投资的角度来看，历史是站在我们这一边的。我们将拭目以待","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Next week, investors will usher in the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, and the market expects this meeting to kick off the rate hike. Stephanie Link, chief investment strategist at Hightower, said: \"From an investment perspective, history is on our side. We will wait and see how long this volatility lasts, but ultimately, the market will recover.\"</p><p>Rate hike is about to \"land its boots\", and shrinking balance sheet still needs to wait and see</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell previously said he would propose a 25 basis point interest rate hike at the March Fed meeting amid high inflation, strong economic demand and a tight labor market, providing an unusually clear picture of expected policy action. forecast.</p><p>According to the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge, the consumer price index (CPI) reached a 40-year high of 7.9% in February and slightly above expectations of 7.8% this year. CPI rose 0.8% month-on-month, higher than expectations of 0.7%. Powell told lawmakers, \"This is strong and high inflation, and it's very important that we get it under control, and that's exactly what we're going to do.\"</p><p>Powell said he expects the Fed to also make \"good progress\" in preparing plans to shrink its $9 trillion asset portfolio, but the Fed will not finalize those plans at its March 15-16 meeting.</p><p>The point is that there has been a big swing in interest rate expectations, and it's likely to continue as the data comes out, which could add to volatility in the interest rate market and the yield curve, said Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments. Since the beginning of the year, the yield curve has flattened significantly, with short-term interest rates rising sharply on expectations of Fed tightening, while longer-term yields rising less sharply.</p><p>The yield curve itself is viewed as an important indicator. Curve inversion, especially when 2-year or shorter-term U.S. Treasury yields are higher than 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, has been a reliable indicator of recession.</p><p>That hasn't happened yet, some analysts say, but the rapid flattening of the curve may reflect concerns that aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve could send the economy into recession. Others have offered a more dovish explanation, with the flattening of interest rates reflecting expectations that a swift response from the Fed will help tame inflation without raising rates to incredible levels.</p><p>Will risk sentiment reverse?</p><p>The Federal Reserve's rate hike is about to \"land its boots\". Will it bring a boosting effect to the global market that has been volatile recently?</p><p>Dhaval Joshi of BCA Research said stocks could fall further in the near term. Unlike COVID-19 pandemic in 2019 when governments implemented tax cuts and increased spending, this time they are sanctioning Russia, which will also hurt its domestic economy. He is also worried that Europe's biggest refugee crisis in decades will trigger another wave of COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p>Josh said that on a three-month basis, inflation from skyrocketing energy and food prices will dampen economic growth. Bond yields are likely to edge higher as the Federal Reserve and other central banks respond, so global stocks haven't bottomed out yet and the dollar will rise, he said.</p><p>But on a 12-month basis, he expects global stock markets, especially the U.S., to rise. The U.S. stock market has a long duration of 30 years, which means the market should be valued at U.S. profits multiplied by the price of 30-year bonds, he said. \"Rising short-term inflation coupled with sanctions will cause great disruption to demand, and falling bond yields will have a boosting effect on U.S. stocks,\" he said.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Global attention! The Fed's \"boots land\" next week, will risk sentiment reverse?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGlobal attention! The Fed's \"boots land\" next week, will risk sentiment reverse?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-03-12 08:59</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Next week, investors will usher in the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, and the market expects this meeting to kick off the rate hike. Stephanie Link, chief investment strategist at Hightower, said: \"From an investment perspective, history is on our side. We will wait and see how long this volatility lasts, but ultimately, the market will recover.\"</p><p>Rate hike is about to \"land its boots\", and shrinking balance sheet still needs to wait and see</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell previously said he would propose a 25 basis point interest rate hike at the March Fed meeting amid high inflation, strong economic demand and a tight labor market, providing an unusually clear picture of expected policy action. forecast.</p><p>According to the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge, the consumer price index (CPI) reached a 40-year high of 7.9% in February and slightly above expectations of 7.8% this year. CPI rose 0.8% month-on-month, higher than expectations of 0.7%. Powell told lawmakers, \"This is strong and high inflation, and it's very important that we get it under control, and that's exactly what we're going to do.\"</p><p>Powell said he expects the Fed to also make \"good progress\" in preparing plans to shrink its $9 trillion asset portfolio, but the Fed will not finalize those plans at its March 15-16 meeting.</p><p>The point is that there has been a big swing in interest rate expectations, and it's likely to continue as the data comes out, which could add to volatility in the interest rate market and the yield curve, said Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments. Since the beginning of the year, the yield curve has flattened significantly, with short-term interest rates rising sharply on expectations of Fed tightening, while longer-term yields rising less sharply.</p><p>The yield curve itself is viewed as an important indicator. Curve inversion, especially when 2-year or shorter-term U.S. Treasury yields are higher than 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, has been a reliable indicator of recession.</p><p>That hasn't happened yet, some analysts say, but the rapid flattening of the curve may reflect concerns that aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve could send the economy into recession. Others have offered a more dovish explanation, with the flattening of interest rates reflecting expectations that a swift response from the Fed will help tame inflation without raising rates to incredible levels.</p><p>Will risk sentiment reverse?</p><p>The Federal Reserve's rate hike is about to \"land its boots\". Will it bring a boosting effect to the global market that has been volatile recently?</p><p>Dhaval Joshi of BCA Research said stocks could fall further in the near term. Unlike COVID-19 pandemic in 2019 when governments implemented tax cuts and increased spending, this time they are sanctioning Russia, which will also hurt its domestic economy. He is also worried that Europe's biggest refugee crisis in decades will trigger another wave of COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p>Josh said that on a three-month basis, inflation from skyrocketing energy and food prices will dampen economic growth. Bond yields are likely to edge higher as the Federal Reserve and other central banks respond, so global stocks haven't bottomed out yet and the dollar will rise, he said.</p><p>But on a 12-month basis, he expects global stock markets, especially the U.S., to rise. The U.S. stock market has a long duration of 30 years, which means the market should be valued at U.S. profits multiplied by the price of 30-year bonds, he said. \"Rising short-term inflation coupled with sanctions will cause great disruption to demand, and falling bond yields will have a boosting effect on U.S. stocks,\" he said.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42d623bf2f962cffafc93d5db7d45f9c","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空",".DJI":"道琼斯","OEX":"标普100","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2218249601","content_text":"下周，投资者将迎来美联储利率决议，市场预期此次会议将拉开加息的帷幕。海托华首席投资策略师斯蒂芬妮•林克(Stephanie Link) 表示：“从投资的角度来看，历史是站在我们这一边的。我们将拭目以待这场波动持续多久，但最终，市场将会复苏。”加息即将“靴子落地”，缩表还需等待观察美联储主席鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)此前表示，在通胀高企、经济需求强劲和劳动力市场紧张的情况下，他将在3月美联储会议上提议升息25个基点，这为预期的政策行动提供了异常明确的预估。根据美联储首选的指标，2月份消费者价格指数(CPI)达到7.9%，创40年来新高，略高于今年7.8%的预期。CPI环比上涨0.8%，高于预期的0.7%。鲍威尔对议员们说，“这是强劲高位的通货膨胀，我们要控制住它，这非常重要，这正是我们要做的。”鲍威尔说，他预计美联储在准备缩减9万亿美元资产组合的计划方面也会取得“良好进展”，但美联储不会在3月15日至16日的会议上敲定这些计划。纽约人寿投资公司(New York Life Investments)经济学家兼投资组合策略师古德温(Lauren Goodwin)说，关键是利率预期已经出现了大幅波动，而且随着数据的出炉，这种波动可能会持续下去，这可能会加剧利率市场和收益率曲线的波动性。自今年初以来，收益率曲线已明显趋平，短期利率因美联储收紧预期而大幅上升，而较长期收益率的升幅则不那么剧烈。收益率曲线本身就被视为一个重要的指标。曲线倒挂，特别是当2年期或较短期美债收益率高于10年期美债收益率时，一直是一个可靠的衰退指标。一些分析师说，这种情况尚未发生，但曲线迅速趋平可能反映出人们对美联储激进收紧政策可能导致经济陷入衰退的担忧。其他人则给出了一种较为温和的解释，利率的趋平反映出市场预期美联储迅速做出反应将有助于抑制通胀，而无需将利率升到令人难以置信的水平。风险情绪会逆转吗?美联储加息即将“靴子落地”，会给近期剧烈波动的全球市场带来提振效应吗?BCA Research的哈瓦尔•乔希(Dhaval Joshi)表示，股市短期内可能会进一步下跌。与2019年新冠疫情时各国政府实施减税和增加支出不同，这次他们是在制裁俄罗斯，这也将损害其国内经济。他还担心欧洲几十年来最大的难民危机会引发另一波新冠疫情。乔希说，以三个月为基准，能源和食品价格飞涨带来的通货膨胀将抑制经济增长。随着美联储和其他央行做出回应，债券收益率可能会小幅走高，因此他说，全球股市尚未触底，美元将会上涨。但从12个月来看，他预计全球股市，尤其是美国股市将会上涨。他说，美国股市的存续期很长，为30年，这意味着市场的估值应该是美国的利润乘以30年期债券的价格。他表示:“短期通胀升温加上制裁措施，将对需求造成极大破坏，届时，债券收益率下降将为美股带来提振效应。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"SPY":1,"UDOW":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"QLD":0.6,".IXIC":1,"SDS":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"QID":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,".DJI":1,"PSQ":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SH":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2755,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9091052984,"gmtCreate":1643752599452,"gmtModify":1676533850624,"author":{"id":"3564108727353086","authorId":"3564108727353086","name":"Futre","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/912eae14e80f11fedbc3bdb7e10bb6d0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564108727353086","idStr":"3564108727353086"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"💰","listText":"💰","text":"💰","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9091052984","repostId":"1109587984","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109587984","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"张忆东从事A股港股及大类资产配置研究逾15载，连续多年获策略研究第一名，是新财富、水晶球、金牛奖、第一财经、IAMAC奖的“全满贯”第一，三次获“新财富”策略第一。该公众号是其团队研究大类资产配置、A股港股美股及其他市场的成果","home_visible":1,"media_name":"张忆东策略世界","id":"1065818805","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad7f636ec1274a70b86d1fdc1329e0eb"},"pubTimestamp":1643727865,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1109587984?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-01 23:04","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Hong Kong stock strategy in February: will usher in an improvement in risk appetite, focusing on the \"mean reversion\" market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109587984","media":"张忆东策略世界","summary":"1、1月观点及行情回顾1.1、观点回顾：1月策略《港股曙光再现》。1月1日报告《港股曙光再现》中强调，2022年1月港股曙光再现，内外部环境有利于反弹的时间窗口：国内稳经济政策发力，2022年一季度货","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>1. January Views and Market Review</b></p><p><b>1.1. Viewpoint review: January strategy \"The dawn of Hong Kong stocks reappears\".</b></p><p><b>The report \"The Dawn of Hong Kong Stocks Reappears\" on January 1 emphasized that the dawn of Hong Kong stocks will reappear in January 2022, and the internal and external environment is conducive to the time window for rebound:</b>Domestic economic stabilization policies are being exerted, and monetary policy is expected to be further loosened in the first quarter of 2022; The impact of changes in the mainland policy environment on Hong Kong stocks has improved marginally.</p><p><b>January 21 report \"U.S. stocks fluctuate greatly, why did Hong Kong stocks rise sharply?\" Pointed out:</b>The \"water collection\" of the United States currently has limited impact on the \"global valuation depression\" Hong Kong stock market and is gradually desensitized; Hong Kong stocks ushered in the dawn in the spring breeze of China's policy of \"steady growth and loose currency\".</p><p><b>The January 25 report \"Short-term and Medium-term Bottom Forecast of U.S. Stocks and the Impact of U.S. Stock Volatility on China's Stock Market\" predicted that U.S. stocks are expected to stabilize and rebound in the short term.</b>The impact of the sharp rise in long-term bond interest rates, the reflexive impact of the market, and the January FOMC on U.S. stocks has come to an end. The performance of U.S. heavyweight stocks and possible subsequent buybacks will determine whether there will be a decent rebound in U.S. stocks in the future? Or just downward relay gasp? In addition, in the medium-term outlook, the medium-term end of U.S. stocks has not yet arrived.</p><p><b>1.2. Market review in January: In the first half of the year, Hong Kong's equity heavyweight sector performed strongly; In the second half of the year, the market adjusted, and the Hang Seng Index closed up 1.7% for the whole month.</b>In addition, in January, the Hang Seng State Index rose 1.4% and the Hang Seng Composite Index fell 0.2%; In terms of industries, energy, telecommunications and comprehensive industries led the gains, while healthcare, consumer discretionary and industrial industries led the losses.</p><p><b>2. Hong Kong stock outlook: February will usher in an improvement in risk appetite, but overseas risks will still interfere with the market in the medium term</b></p><p><b>2.1. Overseas prediction: February will be the rebound window after the short-term US stock market bottoms out; However, U.S. monetary policy continued to shrink in the first half of the year, and the mid-term end of U.S. stocks has not yet reached</b></p><p><b>2.1. 1. In the short term, U.S. stocks have bottomed out and are expected to rebound, which is conducive to increasing the risk appetite of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks</b></p><p>U.S. stocks are in line with the prediction and confirm the short-term bottom. U.S. long-term bond rates fall; VIX closed at 27.66 at 0128, which was significantly lower than the intraday highest value of 38.94 at 0124; The FOMC was not more hawkish than expected.</p><p>The nature of the subsequent U.S. stock rebound depends on fundamental expectations. Can there be a decent rebound in U.S. stocks in the future? Or just downward relay gasp? \"Short-term and medium-term bottom forecasts of U.S. stocks and the impact of U.S. stock fluctuations on China's stock market\" judges that this will depend on the performance of U.S. heavyweight stocks and subsequent repurchases. Apple's latest quarterly report exceeded expectations and led to a rebound in U.S. stocks. Follow-up look at 0201Alphabet, 0202 Meta Platform, 0203<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Performance, and focus on subsequent US stock repurchases and executive holdings.</p><p>February is the stage of the Beijing Winter Olympics, and overseas geopolitical risks are expected to ease. Geopolitical risks surrounding Ukraine are expected to gradually cool down through negotiations in February, and then concerns about the European energy crisis and global oil price risks will cool down in stages.</p><p><b>2.1. 2. In the medium term, U.S. monetary policy continued to shrink in the first half of the year, and U.S. stocks still faced greater volatility risks in the second quarter. Overseas stock market volatility will be the norm, causing Hong Kong stocks to fall deeply and rebound not to be smooth</b></p><p>First of all, the long-term interest rate of U.S. bonds was easy to rise but difficult to fall in the first half of the year, and will continue to rise after falling back and taking a breath in February. As an important buying force in the U.S. bond market, TAPER will end in March as the Fed's bond purchases rapidly ebb. Based on the high inflation in the first half of the year, after the first rate hike in March, the discussion of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet will also be put on the agenda. We judge that the 10-year Treasury Bond yield on U.S. bonds is expected to exceed 2% in the second quarter.</p><p>Secondly, strong rate hike is expected to remain high and will continue to suppress the U.S. stock market in the first half of the year. As of 20220128, the Federal Funds rate futures market has predicted that the Fed will conduct more than one rate hike in March (25bp at a time). Due to the high pressure on the global supply chain, the high inflation in the United States in the first half of the year is likely to be sticky and difficult to fall back significantly. It is not ruled out that the market will continue to be cautious about the Fed's FOMC interest rate decisions in March, May, and June.</p><p>Third, based on the impact of the global epidemic on the global supply chain and the sequelae of the \"big release\" of policies in the previous two years, the risk of high overseas inflation and the risk of rate hike resonance in many overseas countries cannot be ignored.</p><p><b>2.2. China's macro outlook: The policy is \"self-oriented, stability is the first\", and further policy easing can be expected</b></p><p>Under the tone of steady growth, further easing of monetary policy can still be expected. Thus, on the one hand, systemic credit risks in real estate and other fields will be avoided, and on the other hand, it will help stabilize expectations and demand.</p><p>In addition to further monetary easing, after the Spring Festival, infrastructure investment, especially new infrastructure, is expected to exert its strength.</p><p><b>2.3. The policy and fundamentals of the weighted sector are expected to improve, and there is support in the bottom area of Hong Kong stocks.</b></p><p>The policy of stabilizing growth is expected to be further strengthened, and Hong Kong stock-related industries still have upward momentum. 1) The prosperity of traditional industries represented by construction and building materials has improved, and the value of low-valued central enterprises in Hong Kong stocks has been revalued; 2) New energy such as wind, solar, nuclear and hydrogen, and \"new infrastructure\" stocks such as power grids continue to have a high prosperity, and the market is divergent; 3) Mainland securities firms have benefited from the active capital market under the \"recessionary easing\", and the value of relevant Hong Kong stocks is expected to be revalued.</p><p>Marginal improvement in China's real estate policy. Since the beginning of January 2022, the policy environment for real estate has continued to improve, moving towards a virtuous circle: the LPR interest rate has been lowered; The regulatory policies of pre-sale funds in some cities have been relaxed; On January 20, the National Housing and Urban-Rural Development Work Conference was held. The meeting emphasized that risk prevention should be placed in a more prominent position, risks in the field of housing and urban-rural construction should be prevented and resolved, the vitality of enterprises should be better stimulated, growth should be stabilized, and residents' housing needs should be fully released.</p><p>Marginal improvement of Internet industry policy. In 2022, the Internet policy orientation will shift from \"preventing the disorderly expansion of capital\" to \"developing within regulations\".<b>On January 28, the Central Cyberspace Administration of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the State Administration for Market Regulation, held a symposium on promoting the healthy and sustainable development of Internet companies. At the meeting, the relevant person in charge emphasized that,</b>\"At present, the overall situation and development trend of China's long-term favorable economic development environment have not changed, and the development prospects of Internet enterprises are broad and promising. We must grasp the general trend and strengthen our confidence; The continuous improvement of the rule of law and supervision in China's Internet field is an objective requirement and the general trend, which provides a strong guarantee for Internet enterprises to strengthen management and standardize their operations, and must be correctly viewed and actively adapted.\"</p><p>Hong Kong financial stocks benefit from Anglo-American rate hike expectations that the revaluation will continue.</p><p>The reform of state-owned enterprises is worth looking forward to, and the tide of revaluation of central enterprises is in the ascendant. 1) In 2021, the efficiency growth of central enterprises will reach the best level in history, and net profit will increase by 29.8% year-on-year. 2) In 2022, domestic economic stabilization policies will be implemented, and state-owned enterprises and central enterprises will undertake the main task of stabilizing growth. 3) In 2022, the final year of the three-year reform of state-owned enterprises, the fundamentals of some Hong Kong-listed central enterprises are ushering in a turning point or transformation opportunity.</p><p><b>3. Investment advice: stay half sober and half drunk in the short term, and defend and fight back; Small wins in the medium term turn into big wins, select individual stocks</b></p><p><b>3.1. The investment strategy of Hong Kong stocks in 2022 needs to be \"based on value, select individual stocks, do a good job of defensive counterattacks, and accumulate small wins into big wins.\"</b>In the medium and long term, it is difficult to change the general framework that Hong Kong stocks are affected by overseas funds, sentiment and Chinese fundamentals at the same time. Under the basic judgment that the Chinese economy is under pressure in the first half of the year, and the continuous rate hike in the United States, the medium-term adjustment of U.S. stocks has not been completed, and the whole year has fluctuated, Hong Kong stock investment in 2022 needs more defensive counterattacks, based on value and selecting individual stocks, in order to survive and seek advantages and avoid disadvantages, and accumulate small wins into big wins.</p><p><b>3.2. Investment direction of the rebound market in February: based on the improvement of fundamental expectations, focusing on the \"mean reversion\" market:</b></p><p>The rebound and differentiation of Internet leaders: The main driving force is short squeezing. It is recommended to do a good job of trading in the short term and not love to fight. As the policy environment of the Internet industry \"develops in regulations\" is regarded as a marginal warming, it is expected to follow the rebound of U.S. technology stocks in the short term. But in the long run, the big logic of the Internet has been subverted and has shifted from the previous \"high growth and high valuation\" to the logic of value stocks. In the medium term, U.S. monetary policy has tightened, and the medium-term bottom of U.S. stocks has not yet been seen. Therefore, the rebound in the Internet sector of Hong Kong stocks in the first half of the year still requires repeated transactions and hedging protection.</p><p>The revaluation market of state-owned enterprises and central enterprises in Hong Kong stocks: 1) In the first quarter, there are opportunities to benefit from the dividends of China's \"wide money and wide credit\" policy. Pay attention to the revaluation market of finance, real estate, construction, building materials, especially \"bond-like\" high-dividend stocks. 2) Reform of state-owned enterprises, especially opportunities for mergers and acquisitions of state-owned enterprises, focusing on opportunities such as railways, electric power, real estate, and securities firms. 3) Opportunities for market prosperity to improve, focus on agriculture.</p><p>Hong Kong's local financial stocks, benefiting from the expectation of European and American rate hike, will continue to be revalued.</p><p>The deep rebound opportunities of industries damaged by the epidemic include selected logistics, catering and tourism, etc.</p><p>Blue-chip stocks in the fields of household appliances and electrical tools exported to Europe and America.</p><p><b>3.3 Based on the medium and long term, select the alpha opportunities of Hong Kong stocks.</b></p><p><b>Gold Rush Hong Kong stock science and technology innovation company, advanced manufacturing leader.</b>1) New energy vehicle industry chain 2) New energy industry chains such as wind, solar, nuclear and hydrogen, new energy operators, power equipment, etc. 3) Hong Kong stock TMT leader.</p><p><b>Wait patiently and increase your holdings of leaders in the field of consumer services on dips.</b>1) Food and beverage 2) Textile and clothing 3) Property management and business management 4) Pharmaceuticals 5) Emerging consumption.</p><p><b>The transformation and revaluation of central enterprises' Hong Kong stocks</b>(For details, please refer to 20220107 \"Good Opportunities for the Allocation of Hong Kong Stocks of High-quality Central Enterprises\"). Risk warning: the economic growth rate of China and the United States is declining; Inflation in the United States continues to be high, and U.S. monetary policy has tightened more than expected ahead of schedule; Great power game risk; COVID-19 pandemic variation exceeds expectations</p><p><b>Report text</b></p><p><b>1. January Views and Market Review</b></p><p><b>1.1. Viewpoint review: January strategy \"The dawn of Hong Kong stocks reappears\"</b></p><p><b>The in-depth report on October 14, 2021 \"Defensive Counterattack, Investment Clock Shifts from\" Stagflation-like \"to\" Recession \"\" proposed that,</b>In the fourth quarter of this year, the next more likely scenario for China's investment clock is recession, which is shifting from \"quasi-stagflation\" to recession in October; In the fourth quarter, there was still stagflationary pressure in Europe and the United States, and the rebound in U.S. bond yields and the U.S. dollar brought short-term disturbance. Hong Kong stocks: In the bottom area, repeatedly \"grinding the bottom\" and tempering people's hearts. Among them, October to mid-November is a good rebound window, but after the rebound, it is not ruled out that Hong Kong stocks will face turmoil by the end of the year.</p><p><b>The report on November 1, 2021 \"The market grinds the\" bottom \"and grinds people's hearts even more\" pointed out:</b>Hong Kong stocks will still repeatedly \"grind the bottom\" in the bottom area, and the structural market will still follow A shares. Market outlook for November--<b>After the rebound in October, the momentum for Hong Kong stocks to continue to rebound in the fourth quarter was weak.</b></p><p><b>The report \"Looking for the Dawn of Dawn in the Valley of Disappointment\" on December 1, 2021 states:</b>After the Hang Seng Index repeatedly confirmed the bottom and the pessimism of Hong Kong stocks was concentrated, Hong Kong stocks are expected to usher in a rebound. To look for the dawn in the valley of disappointment, select and patiently lay out long-term high-quality stocks.</p><p><b>The report \"The Dawn of Hong Kong Stocks Reappears\" on January 1, 2022 emphasized that the dawn of Hong Kong stocks will reappear in January 2022, and the internal and external environment is conducive to the time window of rebound:</b>Domestic economic stabilization policies are being exerted, and monetary policy is expected to be further loosened in the first quarter of 2022; The impact of changes in the mainland policy environment on Hong Kong stocks has improved marginally.</p><p><b>January 21, 2022 Report \"U.S. stocks fluctuate greatly, why did Hong Kong stocks rise sharply?\" Pointed out:</b>The \"water collection\" of the United States currently has limited impact on the \"global valuation depression\" Hong Kong stock market and is gradually desensitized; Hong Kong stocks ushered in the dawn in the spring breeze of China's policy of \"steady growth and loose currency\".</p><p><b>The report on January 25, 2022 \"Short-term and Medium-term Bottom Forecast of U.S. Stocks and the Impact of U.S. Stock Fluctuations on China's Stock Market\" predicts that U.S. stocks are expected to stabilize and rebound in the short term.</b>The impact of the sharp rise in long-term bond interest rates, the reflexive impact of the market, and the January FOMC on U.S. stocks has come to an end. The performance of U.S. heavyweight stocks and possible subsequent buybacks will determine whether there will be a decent rebound in U.S. stocks in the future? Or just downward relay gasp? In addition, in the medium-term outlook, the medium-term end of U.S. stocks has not yet arrived.</p><p><b>1.2. Market review in January: In the first half of the year, Hong Kong's equity heavyweight sector performed strongly; In the second half of the year, the market adjusted, and the Hang Seng Index closed up 1.7% for the whole month.</b></p><p>As of January 31, the main Hong Kong stock indexes in January, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.7%, the Hang Seng State Index rose 1.4%, and the Hang Seng Composite Index fell 0.2%; In addition, Hang Seng large-cap stocks rose 1.0%, Hang Seng mid-cap stocks fell 4.3%, Hang Seng Technology fell 4.5%, and Hang Seng small stocks fell 6.3%. In terms of industries, Hang Seng Energy (up 10.5%), telecommunications (up 10.1%) and general industries (up 9.0%) led the gains, while healthcare (down 15.1%), consumer discretionary (down 11.1%) and Industrial (down 7.3%) led the decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a55b98cc49a9878ee54e42f3c37969cd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"567\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. Hong Kong stock outlook: February will usher in an improvement in risk appetite, but overseas risks will still interfere with the market in the medium term</b></p><p><b>2.1. Overseas prediction: February will be the rebound window after the short-term US stock market bottoms out; However, U.S. monetary policy continued to shrink in the first half of the year, and the mid-term end of U.S. stocks has not yet reached</b></p><p><b>2.1. 1. In the short term, U.S. stocks have bottomed out and are expected to rebound, which is conducive to increasing the risk appetite of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks</b></p><p><b>U.S. stocks are in line with the prediction and confirm the short-term bottom.</b>U.S. long-term bond rates fall; VIX closed at 27.66 at 0128, which was significantly lower than the intraday highest value of 38.94 at 0124; The FOMC was not more hawkish than expected.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d25c69953ae6c3b55ddbf85cc9b4bf0\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0300233c53f6bc0381b1f4328258782\" tg-width=\"1028\" tg-height=\"864\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f1f67e6def62c32d1f9673cc655dddb\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"189\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The nature of the subsequent U.S. stock rebound depends on fundamental expectations. Can there be a decent rebound in U.S. stocks in the future? Or just downward relay gasp? \"Short-term and medium-term bottom forecasts of U.S. stocks and the impact of U.S. stock fluctuations on China's stock market\" judges that this will depend on the performance of U.S. heavyweight stocks and subsequent repurchases.</b></p><p>The latest quarterly report of Apple (AAPL.US) exceeded expectations, driving a rebound in U.S. stocks. Follow-up look at the performance of 0201Alphabet (GOOGL.US), 0202 MetaPlatform (FB.US), and 0203 Amazon (AMZN.US), and focus on subsequent U.S. stock repurchases and executives increase their holdings-According to media reports, Netflix (NFLX.US) Co-CEO Reed Hastings bought Netflix shares worth $20 million after its performance fell below expectations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/530147cbb84acbc2092920a61ceaaa66\" tg-width=\"1055\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2.1. 2. In the medium term, U.S. monetary policy continued to shrink in the first half of the year, and U.S. stocks still faced greater volatility risks in the second quarter. Overseas stock market volatility will be the norm, causing Hong Kong stocks to fall deeply and rebound not to be smooth</b></p><p><b>First of all, the long-term interest rate of U.S. bonds was easy to rise but difficult to fall in the first half of the year, and will continue to rise after falling back and taking a breath in February.</b>As an important buying force in the U.S. bond market, the U.S. Treasury Federal Reserve will end in March as the Fed's bond purchases rapidly ebb. Based on the high inflation in the first half of the year, after the first rate hike in March, the discussion of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet will also be put on the agenda. We judge that the 10-year Treasury Bond yield on U.S. bonds is expected to exceed 2% in the second quarter.<b>。</b>Regarding the tapering of bond purchases, the FOMC decided in January to maintain the current pace of tapering bond purchases, so the Fed will end bond purchases in March 2022; Regarding shrinking balance sheet, after the FOMC meeting in January, Powell answered a reporter's question and said that \"there will be at least one meeting after rate hike to discuss specific shrinking balance sheet matters.\"</p><p><b>Secondly, strong rate hike is expected to remain high and will continue to suppress the U.S. stock market in the first half of the year.</b>As of 20220128, the Federal Funds rate futures market has predicted that the Fed will conduct more than one rate hike in March (25bp at a time). Due to the high pressure on the global supply chain, the high inflation in the United States in the first half of the year is likely to be sticky and difficult to fall back significantly. It is not ruled out that the market will continue to be cautious about the Fed's FOMC interest rate decisions in March, May, and June.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13b7f83f2853710017ea985c0c519b8e\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac24bf95deb023f10668e219e2ea6388\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Third, based on the impact of the global epidemic on the global supply chain and the sequelae of the \"big release\" of policies in the previous two years, the risk of high overseas inflation and the risk of rate hike resonance in many overseas countries cannot be ignored.</b>At present, the emerging market rate hike is responding to the tightening of the Federal Reserve. In developed markets, according to media reports, the market expects that the Bank of England at 0203, the Bank of New Zealand at 0223, and the Bank of Canada at 0302 will also have a high probability of rate hike. The European Central Bank's first interest rate decision this year at 0203 is also crucial.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aac9bd772f72fc0d5da602aa0137d06e\" tg-width=\"1075\" tg-height=\"452\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2.2. China's macro outlook: The policy is \"self-oriented, stability is the first\", and further policy easing can be expected</b></p><p><b>Under the tone of steady growth, further easing of monetary policy can still be expected. Thus, on the one hand, systemic credit risks in real estate and other fields will be avoided, and on the other hand, it will help stabilize expectations and demand.</b>At present, the economic growth rate is still facing downward pressure, and the pressure of real estate debt maturity increased in the first quarter. Credit risks in real estate and other fields and their drag on the economy cannot be underestimated. Therefore, the recent reduction of MLF and LPR of various maturities is a positive response signal, and the subsequent further monetary and fiscal easing is worth looking forward to.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/891645f1512f61b3bb2c56eb1dc33216\" tg-width=\"798\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>In addition to further monetary easing, after the Spring Festival, infrastructure investment, especially new infrastructure, is expected to exert its strength.</b></p><p>Against the background that economic growth is still facing greater downward pressure, in the fourth quarter of 2021, real GDP increased by 4.0% year-on-year, down 0.9 percentage points from the third quarter. Affected by repeated epidemics, consumption growth came under pressure again after a short recovery.</p><p>At present, under the premise that housing is not speculated, and real estate is not used as the main means to stimulate the economy, the main means to quickly stabilize the economy still depends on \"stabilizing infrastructure\", especially those that are conducive to structural adjustment in the long term and stable growth in the short term. Broad \"new infrastructure\".</p><p>according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">Industrial Securities</a>According to the research of the macro team, the early batch of new special bond quotas in 2022 has been issued in December 2021, slightly earlier than the same period in 2021, reflecting the government's determination to \"carry out infrastructure investment moderately ahead of schedule.\" With the acceleration of the issuance of special bonds in November and December, the growth rate of infrastructure has picked up in December. Looking forward, infrastructure investment may usher in strength in the first half of 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d10a7cabdb9f6e01617b50862157f6a\" tg-width=\"1050\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ef300fee45aa401bf89db365c383005\" tg-width=\"791\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2.3. The policy and fundamentals of the weighted sector are expected to improve, and there is support in the bottom area of Hong Kong stocks</b></p><p><b>The policy of stabilizing growth is expected to be further strengthened, and Hong Kong stock-related industries still have upward momentum.</b>1) The prosperity of traditional industries represented by construction and building materials has improved, and the value of low-valued central enterprises in Hong Kong stocks has been revalued; 2) New energy such as wind, solar, nuclear and hydrogen, and \"new infrastructure\" stocks such as power grids continue to have a high prosperity, and the market is divergent; 3) Mainland securities firms have benefited from the active capital market under the \"recessionary easing\", and the value of relevant Hong Kong stocks is expected to be revalued.</p><p><b>Marginal improvement in China's real estate policy.</b>Since the beginning of January 2022, the policy environment for real estate has continued to improve, moving towards a virtuous circle: the LPR interest rate has been lowered; The regulatory policies of pre-sale funds in some cities have been relaxed; On January 20, the National Housing and Urban-Rural Development Work Conference was held. The meeting emphasized that risk prevention should be placed in a more prominent position, risks in the field of housing and urban-rural construction should be prevented and resolved, the vitality of enterprises should be better stimulated, growth should be stabilized, and residents' housing needs should be fully released.</p><p><b>Marginal improvement of Internet industry policy.</b>In 2022, the Internet policy orientation will shift from \"preventing the disorderly expansion of capital\" to \"developing within regulations\".<b>On January 28, the Central Cyberspace Administration of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the State Administration for Market Regulation, held a symposium on promoting the healthy and sustainable development of Internet companies. At the meeting, the relevant person in charge emphasized that,</b>\"At present, the overall situation and development trend of China's long-term favorable economic development environment have not changed, and the development prospects of Internet enterprises are broad and promising. We must grasp the general trend and strengthen our confidence; The continuous improvement of the rule of law and supervision in China's Internet field is an objective requirement and the general trend, which provides a strong guarantee for Internet enterprises to strengthen management and standardize their operations, and must be correctly viewed and actively adapted.\"</p><p><b>Hong Kong financial stocks benefit from Anglo-American rate hike expectations that the revaluation will continue.</b></p><p><b>The reform of state-owned enterprises is worth looking forward to, and the tide of revaluation of central enterprises is in the ascendant.</b>1) On January 19, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the economic performance of central enterprises in 2021. The relevant person in charge of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission revealed at the meeting that the efficiency growth of central enterprises in 2021 reached the best level in history, achieving operating income of 36.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%, a year-on-year increase of 30.3%, and a year-on-year increase of 29.8%. 2) Under the requirement that \"economic work must be stable and strive for progress while maintaining stability\", the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission stated that in 2022, central enterprises will focus on the goal of \"two increases, one control and three improvements\" to complete the task of stabilizing growth and promote high-quality development. Combine it to promote stability, consolidate stability with progress, and make greater contributions to economic and social development. 3) At the same time, 2022 is the final year of the three-year reform of state-owned enterprises. In the new era of implementing the \"dual carbon\" strategy, high-quality development, and common prosperity, the fundamentals of some Hong Kong-listed central enterprises are ushering in a turning point or transformation opportunity.</p><p><b>3. Investment advice: stay half sober and half drunk in the short term, and defend and fight back; Small wins in the medium term turn into big wins, select individual stocks</b></p><p><b>3.1. The investment strategy of Hong Kong stocks in 2022 needs to be \"based on value, select individual stocks, do a good job in defensive counterattacks, and accumulate small wins into big wins\"</b></p><p>In the medium and long term, it is difficult to change the general framework that Hong Kong stocks are affected by overseas funds, sentiment and Chinese fundamentals at the same time. Under the basic judgment that the Chinese economy is under pressure in the first half of the year, and the continuous rate hike in the United States, the medium-term adjustment of U.S. stocks has not been completed, and the whole year has fluctuated, Hong Kong stock investment in 2022 needs more defensive counterattacks, based on value, and selecting individual stocks, so as to survive and seek advantages and avoid disadvantages, and accumulate small wins into big wins.</p><p><b>3.2. The investment direction of the rebound market in February: based on the improvement of fundamental expectations, focusing on the \"mean reversion\" market</b></p><p>The rebound and differentiation of Internet leaders: The main driving force is short squeezing. It is recommended to do a good job of trading in the short term and not love to fight. As the policy environment of the Internet industry \"develops in regulations\" is regarded as a marginal warming, it is expected to follow the rebound of U.S. technology stocks in the short term. But in the long run, the big logic of the Internet has been subverted and has shifted from the previous \"high growth and high valuation\" to the logic of value stocks. In the medium term, U.S. monetary policy has tightened, and the medium-term bottom of U.S. stocks has not yet been seen. Therefore, the rebound in the Internet sector of Hong Kong stocks in the first half of the year still requires repeated transactions and hedging protection.</p><p>The revaluation market of state-owned enterprises and central enterprises in Hong Kong stocks: 1) In the first quarter, there are opportunities to benefit from the dividends of China's \"wide money and wide credit\" policy. Pay attention to the revaluation market of finance, real estate, construction, building materials, especially \"bond-like\" high-dividend stocks. 2) Reform of state-owned enterprises, especially opportunities for mergers and acquisitions of state-owned enterprises, focusing on opportunities such as railways, electric power, real estate, and securities firms. 3) Opportunities for market prosperity to improve, focus on agriculture.</p><p>Hong Kong's local financial stocks, benefiting from the expectation of European and American rate hike, will continue to be revalued.</p><p>The deep rebound opportunities of industries damaged by the epidemic include selected logistics, catering and tourism, etc.</p><p>Blue-chip stocks in the fields of household appliances and electrical tools exported to Europe and America.</p><p><b>3.3. Based on the medium and long term, select alpha opportunities in Hong Kong stocks</b></p><p><b>Gold Rush Hong Kong stock science and technology innovation company, advanced manufacturing leader.</b>1) New energy vehicle industry chain 2) New energy industry chains such as wind, solar, nuclear and hydrogen, new energy operators, power equipment, etc. 3) Hong Kong stock TMT leader<b>。</b></p><p><b>Wait patiently and increase your holdings of leaders in the field of consumer services on dips.</b>1) Food and beverage 2) Textile and clothing 3) Property management and business management 4) Pharmaceuticals 5) Emerging consumption.</p><p><b>The transformation and revaluation of central enterprises' Hong Kong stocks</b>(For details, please refer to 20220107 \"Good Opportunities for the Allocation of Hong Kong Stocks of High-quality Central Enterprises\").</p><p><b>4. Risk warning</b></p><p>The economic growth rate of China and the United States is declining; Inflation in the United States continues to be high, and U.S. monetary policy has tightened more than expected ahead of schedule; Great power game risk; COVID-19 pandemic mutation exceeded expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hong Kong stock strategy in February: will usher in an improvement in risk appetite, focusing on the \"mean reversion\" market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHong Kong stock strategy in February: will usher in an improvement in risk appetite, focusing on the \"mean reversion\" market\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1065818805\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad7f636ec1274a70b86d1fdc1329e0eb);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">张忆东策略世界 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-01 23:04</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>1. January Views and Market Review</b></p><p><b>1.1. Viewpoint review: January strategy \"The dawn of Hong Kong stocks reappears\".</b></p><p><b>The report \"The Dawn of Hong Kong Stocks Reappears\" on January 1 emphasized that the dawn of Hong Kong stocks will reappear in January 2022, and the internal and external environment is conducive to the time window for rebound:</b>Domestic economic stabilization policies are being exerted, and monetary policy is expected to be further loosened in the first quarter of 2022; The impact of changes in the mainland policy environment on Hong Kong stocks has improved marginally.</p><p><b>January 21 report \"U.S. stocks fluctuate greatly, why did Hong Kong stocks rise sharply?\" Pointed out:</b>The \"water collection\" of the United States currently has limited impact on the \"global valuation depression\" Hong Kong stock market and is gradually desensitized; Hong Kong stocks ushered in the dawn in the spring breeze of China's policy of \"steady growth and loose currency\".</p><p><b>The January 25 report \"Short-term and Medium-term Bottom Forecast of U.S. Stocks and the Impact of U.S. Stock Volatility on China's Stock Market\" predicted that U.S. stocks are expected to stabilize and rebound in the short term.</b>The impact of the sharp rise in long-term bond interest rates, the reflexive impact of the market, and the January FOMC on U.S. stocks has come to an end. The performance of U.S. heavyweight stocks and possible subsequent buybacks will determine whether there will be a decent rebound in U.S. stocks in the future? Or just downward relay gasp? In addition, in the medium-term outlook, the medium-term end of U.S. stocks has not yet arrived.</p><p><b>1.2. Market review in January: In the first half of the year, Hong Kong's equity heavyweight sector performed strongly; In the second half of the year, the market adjusted, and the Hang Seng Index closed up 1.7% for the whole month.</b>In addition, in January, the Hang Seng State Index rose 1.4% and the Hang Seng Composite Index fell 0.2%; In terms of industries, energy, telecommunications and comprehensive industries led the gains, while healthcare, consumer discretionary and industrial industries led the losses.</p><p><b>2. Hong Kong stock outlook: February will usher in an improvement in risk appetite, but overseas risks will still interfere with the market in the medium term</b></p><p><b>2.1. Overseas prediction: February will be the rebound window after the short-term US stock market bottoms out; However, U.S. monetary policy continued to shrink in the first half of the year, and the mid-term end of U.S. stocks has not yet reached</b></p><p><b>2.1. 1. In the short term, U.S. stocks have bottomed out and are expected to rebound, which is conducive to increasing the risk appetite of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks</b></p><p>U.S. stocks are in line with the prediction and confirm the short-term bottom. U.S. long-term bond rates fall; VIX closed at 27.66 at 0128, which was significantly lower than the intraday highest value of 38.94 at 0124; The FOMC was not more hawkish than expected.</p><p>The nature of the subsequent U.S. stock rebound depends on fundamental expectations. Can there be a decent rebound in U.S. stocks in the future? Or just downward relay gasp? \"Short-term and medium-term bottom forecasts of U.S. stocks and the impact of U.S. stock fluctuations on China's stock market\" judges that this will depend on the performance of U.S. heavyweight stocks and subsequent repurchases. Apple's latest quarterly report exceeded expectations and led to a rebound in U.S. stocks. Follow-up look at 0201Alphabet, 0202 Meta Platform, 0203<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Performance, and focus on subsequent US stock repurchases and executive holdings.</p><p>February is the stage of the Beijing Winter Olympics, and overseas geopolitical risks are expected to ease. Geopolitical risks surrounding Ukraine are expected to gradually cool down through negotiations in February, and then concerns about the European energy crisis and global oil price risks will cool down in stages.</p><p><b>2.1. 2. In the medium term, U.S. monetary policy continued to shrink in the first half of the year, and U.S. stocks still faced greater volatility risks in the second quarter. Overseas stock market volatility will be the norm, causing Hong Kong stocks to fall deeply and rebound not to be smooth</b></p><p>First of all, the long-term interest rate of U.S. bonds was easy to rise but difficult to fall in the first half of the year, and will continue to rise after falling back and taking a breath in February. As an important buying force in the U.S. bond market, TAPER will end in March as the Fed's bond purchases rapidly ebb. Based on the high inflation in the first half of the year, after the first rate hike in March, the discussion of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet will also be put on the agenda. We judge that the 10-year Treasury Bond yield on U.S. bonds is expected to exceed 2% in the second quarter.</p><p>Secondly, strong rate hike is expected to remain high and will continue to suppress the U.S. stock market in the first half of the year. As of 20220128, the Federal Funds rate futures market has predicted that the Fed will conduct more than one rate hike in March (25bp at a time). Due to the high pressure on the global supply chain, the high inflation in the United States in the first half of the year is likely to be sticky and difficult to fall back significantly. It is not ruled out that the market will continue to be cautious about the Fed's FOMC interest rate decisions in March, May, and June.</p><p>Third, based on the impact of the global epidemic on the global supply chain and the sequelae of the \"big release\" of policies in the previous two years, the risk of high overseas inflation and the risk of rate hike resonance in many overseas countries cannot be ignored.</p><p><b>2.2. China's macro outlook: The policy is \"self-oriented, stability is the first\", and further policy easing can be expected</b></p><p>Under the tone of steady growth, further easing of monetary policy can still be expected. Thus, on the one hand, systemic credit risks in real estate and other fields will be avoided, and on the other hand, it will help stabilize expectations and demand.</p><p>In addition to further monetary easing, after the Spring Festival, infrastructure investment, especially new infrastructure, is expected to exert its strength.</p><p><b>2.3. The policy and fundamentals of the weighted sector are expected to improve, and there is support in the bottom area of Hong Kong stocks.</b></p><p>The policy of stabilizing growth is expected to be further strengthened, and Hong Kong stock-related industries still have upward momentum. 1) The prosperity of traditional industries represented by construction and building materials has improved, and the value of low-valued central enterprises in Hong Kong stocks has been revalued; 2) New energy such as wind, solar, nuclear and hydrogen, and \"new infrastructure\" stocks such as power grids continue to have a high prosperity, and the market is divergent; 3) Mainland securities firms have benefited from the active capital market under the \"recessionary easing\", and the value of relevant Hong Kong stocks is expected to be revalued.</p><p>Marginal improvement in China's real estate policy. Since the beginning of January 2022, the policy environment for real estate has continued to improve, moving towards a virtuous circle: the LPR interest rate has been lowered; The regulatory policies of pre-sale funds in some cities have been relaxed; On January 20, the National Housing and Urban-Rural Development Work Conference was held. The meeting emphasized that risk prevention should be placed in a more prominent position, risks in the field of housing and urban-rural construction should be prevented and resolved, the vitality of enterprises should be better stimulated, growth should be stabilized, and residents' housing needs should be fully released.</p><p>Marginal improvement of Internet industry policy. In 2022, the Internet policy orientation will shift from \"preventing the disorderly expansion of capital\" to \"developing within regulations\".<b>On January 28, the Central Cyberspace Administration of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the State Administration for Market Regulation, held a symposium on promoting the healthy and sustainable development of Internet companies. At the meeting, the relevant person in charge emphasized that,</b>\"At present, the overall situation and development trend of China's long-term favorable economic development environment have not changed, and the development prospects of Internet enterprises are broad and promising. We must grasp the general trend and strengthen our confidence; The continuous improvement of the rule of law and supervision in China's Internet field is an objective requirement and the general trend, which provides a strong guarantee for Internet enterprises to strengthen management and standardize their operations, and must be correctly viewed and actively adapted.\"</p><p>Hong Kong financial stocks benefit from Anglo-American rate hike expectations that the revaluation will continue.</p><p>The reform of state-owned enterprises is worth looking forward to, and the tide of revaluation of central enterprises is in the ascendant. 1) In 2021, the efficiency growth of central enterprises will reach the best level in history, and net profit will increase by 29.8% year-on-year. 2) In 2022, domestic economic stabilization policies will be implemented, and state-owned enterprises and central enterprises will undertake the main task of stabilizing growth. 3) In 2022, the final year of the three-year reform of state-owned enterprises, the fundamentals of some Hong Kong-listed central enterprises are ushering in a turning point or transformation opportunity.</p><p><b>3. Investment advice: stay half sober and half drunk in the short term, and defend and fight back; Small wins in the medium term turn into big wins, select individual stocks</b></p><p><b>3.1. The investment strategy of Hong Kong stocks in 2022 needs to be \"based on value, select individual stocks, do a good job of defensive counterattacks, and accumulate small wins into big wins.\"</b>In the medium and long term, it is difficult to change the general framework that Hong Kong stocks are affected by overseas funds, sentiment and Chinese fundamentals at the same time. Under the basic judgment that the Chinese economy is under pressure in the first half of the year, and the continuous rate hike in the United States, the medium-term adjustment of U.S. stocks has not been completed, and the whole year has fluctuated, Hong Kong stock investment in 2022 needs more defensive counterattacks, based on value and selecting individual stocks, in order to survive and seek advantages and avoid disadvantages, and accumulate small wins into big wins.</p><p><b>3.2. Investment direction of the rebound market in February: based on the improvement of fundamental expectations, focusing on the \"mean reversion\" market:</b></p><p>The rebound and differentiation of Internet leaders: The main driving force is short squeezing. It is recommended to do a good job of trading in the short term and not love to fight. As the policy environment of the Internet industry \"develops in regulations\" is regarded as a marginal warming, it is expected to follow the rebound of U.S. technology stocks in the short term. But in the long run, the big logic of the Internet has been subverted and has shifted from the previous \"high growth and high valuation\" to the logic of value stocks. In the medium term, U.S. monetary policy has tightened, and the medium-term bottom of U.S. stocks has not yet been seen. Therefore, the rebound in the Internet sector of Hong Kong stocks in the first half of the year still requires repeated transactions and hedging protection.</p><p>The revaluation market of state-owned enterprises and central enterprises in Hong Kong stocks: 1) In the first quarter, there are opportunities to benefit from the dividends of China's \"wide money and wide credit\" policy. Pay attention to the revaluation market of finance, real estate, construction, building materials, especially \"bond-like\" high-dividend stocks. 2) Reform of state-owned enterprises, especially opportunities for mergers and acquisitions of state-owned enterprises, focusing on opportunities such as railways, electric power, real estate, and securities firms. 3) Opportunities for market prosperity to improve, focus on agriculture.</p><p>Hong Kong's local financial stocks, benefiting from the expectation of European and American rate hike, will continue to be revalued.</p><p>The deep rebound opportunities of industries damaged by the epidemic include selected logistics, catering and tourism, etc.</p><p>Blue-chip stocks in the fields of household appliances and electrical tools exported to Europe and America.</p><p><b>3.3 Based on the medium and long term, select the alpha opportunities of Hong Kong stocks.</b></p><p><b>Gold Rush Hong Kong stock science and technology innovation company, advanced manufacturing leader.</b>1) New energy vehicle industry chain 2) New energy industry chains such as wind, solar, nuclear and hydrogen, new energy operators, power equipment, etc. 3) Hong Kong stock TMT leader.</p><p><b>Wait patiently and increase your holdings of leaders in the field of consumer services on dips.</b>1) Food and beverage 2) Textile and clothing 3) Property management and business management 4) Pharmaceuticals 5) Emerging consumption.</p><p><b>The transformation and revaluation of central enterprises' Hong Kong stocks</b>(For details, please refer to 20220107 \"Good Opportunities for the Allocation of Hong Kong Stocks of High-quality Central Enterprises\"). Risk warning: the economic growth rate of China and the United States is declining; Inflation in the United States continues to be high, and U.S. monetary policy has tightened more than expected ahead of schedule; Great power game risk; COVID-19 pandemic variation exceeds expectations</p><p><b>Report text</b></p><p><b>1. January Views and Market Review</b></p><p><b>1.1. Viewpoint review: January strategy \"The dawn of Hong Kong stocks reappears\"</b></p><p><b>The in-depth report on October 14, 2021 \"Defensive Counterattack, Investment Clock Shifts from\" Stagflation-like \"to\" Recession \"\" proposed that,</b>In the fourth quarter of this year, the next more likely scenario for China's investment clock is recession, which is shifting from \"quasi-stagflation\" to recession in October; In the fourth quarter, there was still stagflationary pressure in Europe and the United States, and the rebound in U.S. bond yields and the U.S. dollar brought short-term disturbance. Hong Kong stocks: In the bottom area, repeatedly \"grinding the bottom\" and tempering people's hearts. Among them, October to mid-November is a good rebound window, but after the rebound, it is not ruled out that Hong Kong stocks will face turmoil by the end of the year.</p><p><b>The report on November 1, 2021 \"The market grinds the\" bottom \"and grinds people's hearts even more\" pointed out:</b>Hong Kong stocks will still repeatedly \"grind the bottom\" in the bottom area, and the structural market will still follow A shares. Market outlook for November--<b>After the rebound in October, the momentum for Hong Kong stocks to continue to rebound in the fourth quarter was weak.</b></p><p><b>The report \"Looking for the Dawn of Dawn in the Valley of Disappointment\" on December 1, 2021 states:</b>After the Hang Seng Index repeatedly confirmed the bottom and the pessimism of Hong Kong stocks was concentrated, Hong Kong stocks are expected to usher in a rebound. To look for the dawn in the valley of disappointment, select and patiently lay out long-term high-quality stocks.</p><p><b>The report \"The Dawn of Hong Kong Stocks Reappears\" on January 1, 2022 emphasized that the dawn of Hong Kong stocks will reappear in January 2022, and the internal and external environment is conducive to the time window of rebound:</b>Domestic economic stabilization policies are being exerted, and monetary policy is expected to be further loosened in the first quarter of 2022; The impact of changes in the mainland policy environment on Hong Kong stocks has improved marginally.</p><p><b>January 21, 2022 Report \"U.S. stocks fluctuate greatly, why did Hong Kong stocks rise sharply?\" Pointed out:</b>The \"water collection\" of the United States currently has limited impact on the \"global valuation depression\" Hong Kong stock market and is gradually desensitized; Hong Kong stocks ushered in the dawn in the spring breeze of China's policy of \"steady growth and loose currency\".</p><p><b>The report on January 25, 2022 \"Short-term and Medium-term Bottom Forecast of U.S. Stocks and the Impact of U.S. Stock Fluctuations on China's Stock Market\" predicts that U.S. stocks are expected to stabilize and rebound in the short term.</b>The impact of the sharp rise in long-term bond interest rates, the reflexive impact of the market, and the January FOMC on U.S. stocks has come to an end. The performance of U.S. heavyweight stocks and possible subsequent buybacks will determine whether there will be a decent rebound in U.S. stocks in the future? Or just downward relay gasp? In addition, in the medium-term outlook, the medium-term end of U.S. stocks has not yet arrived.</p><p><b>1.2. Market review in January: In the first half of the year, Hong Kong's equity heavyweight sector performed strongly; In the second half of the year, the market adjusted, and the Hang Seng Index closed up 1.7% for the whole month.</b></p><p>As of January 31, the main Hong Kong stock indexes in January, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.7%, the Hang Seng State Index rose 1.4%, and the Hang Seng Composite Index fell 0.2%; In addition, Hang Seng large-cap stocks rose 1.0%, Hang Seng mid-cap stocks fell 4.3%, Hang Seng Technology fell 4.5%, and Hang Seng small stocks fell 6.3%. In terms of industries, Hang Seng Energy (up 10.5%), telecommunications (up 10.1%) and general industries (up 9.0%) led the gains, while healthcare (down 15.1%), consumer discretionary (down 11.1%) and Industrial (down 7.3%) led the decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a55b98cc49a9878ee54e42f3c37969cd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"567\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. Hong Kong stock outlook: February will usher in an improvement in risk appetite, but overseas risks will still interfere with the market in the medium term</b></p><p><b>2.1. Overseas prediction: February will be the rebound window after the short-term US stock market bottoms out; However, U.S. monetary policy continued to shrink in the first half of the year, and the mid-term end of U.S. stocks has not yet reached</b></p><p><b>2.1. 1. In the short term, U.S. stocks have bottomed out and are expected to rebound, which is conducive to increasing the risk appetite of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks</b></p><p><b>U.S. stocks are in line with the prediction and confirm the short-term bottom.</b>U.S. long-term bond rates fall; VIX closed at 27.66 at 0128, which was significantly lower than the intraday highest value of 38.94 at 0124; The FOMC was not more hawkish than expected.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d25c69953ae6c3b55ddbf85cc9b4bf0\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0300233c53f6bc0381b1f4328258782\" tg-width=\"1028\" tg-height=\"864\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f1f67e6def62c32d1f9673cc655dddb\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"189\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The nature of the subsequent U.S. stock rebound depends on fundamental expectations. Can there be a decent rebound in U.S. stocks in the future? Or just downward relay gasp? \"Short-term and medium-term bottom forecasts of U.S. stocks and the impact of U.S. stock fluctuations on China's stock market\" judges that this will depend on the performance of U.S. heavyweight stocks and subsequent repurchases.</b></p><p>The latest quarterly report of Apple (AAPL.US) exceeded expectations, driving a rebound in U.S. stocks. Follow-up look at the performance of 0201Alphabet (GOOGL.US), 0202 MetaPlatform (FB.US), and 0203 Amazon (AMZN.US), and focus on subsequent U.S. stock repurchases and executives increase their holdings-According to media reports, Netflix (NFLX.US) Co-CEO Reed Hastings bought Netflix shares worth $20 million after its performance fell below expectations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/530147cbb84acbc2092920a61ceaaa66\" tg-width=\"1055\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2.1. 2. In the medium term, U.S. monetary policy continued to shrink in the first half of the year, and U.S. stocks still faced greater volatility risks in the second quarter. Overseas stock market volatility will be the norm, causing Hong Kong stocks to fall deeply and rebound not to be smooth</b></p><p><b>First of all, the long-term interest rate of U.S. bonds was easy to rise but difficult to fall in the first half of the year, and will continue to rise after falling back and taking a breath in February.</b>As an important buying force in the U.S. bond market, the U.S. Treasury Federal Reserve will end in March as the Fed's bond purchases rapidly ebb. Based on the high inflation in the first half of the year, after the first rate hike in March, the discussion of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet will also be put on the agenda. We judge that the 10-year Treasury Bond yield on U.S. bonds is expected to exceed 2% in the second quarter.<b>。</b>Regarding the tapering of bond purchases, the FOMC decided in January to maintain the current pace of tapering bond purchases, so the Fed will end bond purchases in March 2022; Regarding shrinking balance sheet, after the FOMC meeting in January, Powell answered a reporter's question and said that \"there will be at least one meeting after rate hike to discuss specific shrinking balance sheet matters.\"</p><p><b>Secondly, strong rate hike is expected to remain high and will continue to suppress the U.S. stock market in the first half of the year.</b>As of 20220128, the Federal Funds rate futures market has predicted that the Fed will conduct more than one rate hike in March (25bp at a time). Due to the high pressure on the global supply chain, the high inflation in the United States in the first half of the year is likely to be sticky and difficult to fall back significantly. It is not ruled out that the market will continue to be cautious about the Fed's FOMC interest rate decisions in March, May, and June.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13b7f83f2853710017ea985c0c519b8e\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac24bf95deb023f10668e219e2ea6388\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Third, based on the impact of the global epidemic on the global supply chain and the sequelae of the \"big release\" of policies in the previous two years, the risk of high overseas inflation and the risk of rate hike resonance in many overseas countries cannot be ignored.</b>At present, the emerging market rate hike is responding to the tightening of the Federal Reserve. In developed markets, according to media reports, the market expects that the Bank of England at 0203, the Bank of New Zealand at 0223, and the Bank of Canada at 0302 will also have a high probability of rate hike. The European Central Bank's first interest rate decision this year at 0203 is also crucial.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aac9bd772f72fc0d5da602aa0137d06e\" tg-width=\"1075\" tg-height=\"452\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2.2. China's macro outlook: The policy is \"self-oriented, stability is the first\", and further policy easing can be expected</b></p><p><b>Under the tone of steady growth, further easing of monetary policy can still be expected. Thus, on the one hand, systemic credit risks in real estate and other fields will be avoided, and on the other hand, it will help stabilize expectations and demand.</b>At present, the economic growth rate is still facing downward pressure, and the pressure of real estate debt maturity increased in the first quarter. Credit risks in real estate and other fields and their drag on the economy cannot be underestimated. Therefore, the recent reduction of MLF and LPR of various maturities is a positive response signal, and the subsequent further monetary and fiscal easing is worth looking forward to.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/891645f1512f61b3bb2c56eb1dc33216\" tg-width=\"798\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>In addition to further monetary easing, after the Spring Festival, infrastructure investment, especially new infrastructure, is expected to exert its strength.</b></p><p>Against the background that economic growth is still facing greater downward pressure, in the fourth quarter of 2021, real GDP increased by 4.0% year-on-year, down 0.9 percentage points from the third quarter. Affected by repeated epidemics, consumption growth came under pressure again after a short recovery.</p><p>At present, under the premise that housing is not speculated, and real estate is not used as the main means to stimulate the economy, the main means to quickly stabilize the economy still depends on \"stabilizing infrastructure\", especially those that are conducive to structural adjustment in the long term and stable growth in the short term. Broad \"new infrastructure\".</p><p>according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">Industrial Securities</a>According to the research of the macro team, the early batch of new special bond quotas in 2022 has been issued in December 2021, slightly earlier than the same period in 2021, reflecting the government's determination to \"carry out infrastructure investment moderately ahead of schedule.\" With the acceleration of the issuance of special bonds in November and December, the growth rate of infrastructure has picked up in December. Looking forward, infrastructure investment may usher in strength in the first half of 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d10a7cabdb9f6e01617b50862157f6a\" tg-width=\"1050\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ef300fee45aa401bf89db365c383005\" tg-width=\"791\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2.3. The policy and fundamentals of the weighted sector are expected to improve, and there is support in the bottom area of Hong Kong stocks</b></p><p><b>The policy of stabilizing growth is expected to be further strengthened, and Hong Kong stock-related industries still have upward momentum.</b>1) The prosperity of traditional industries represented by construction and building materials has improved, and the value of low-valued central enterprises in Hong Kong stocks has been revalued; 2) New energy such as wind, solar, nuclear and hydrogen, and \"new infrastructure\" stocks such as power grids continue to have a high prosperity, and the market is divergent; 3) Mainland securities firms have benefited from the active capital market under the \"recessionary easing\", and the value of relevant Hong Kong stocks is expected to be revalued.</p><p><b>Marginal improvement in China's real estate policy.</b>Since the beginning of January 2022, the policy environment for real estate has continued to improve, moving towards a virtuous circle: the LPR interest rate has been lowered; The regulatory policies of pre-sale funds in some cities have been relaxed; On January 20, the National Housing and Urban-Rural Development Work Conference was held. The meeting emphasized that risk prevention should be placed in a more prominent position, risks in the field of housing and urban-rural construction should be prevented and resolved, the vitality of enterprises should be better stimulated, growth should be stabilized, and residents' housing needs should be fully released.</p><p><b>Marginal improvement of Internet industry policy.</b>In 2022, the Internet policy orientation will shift from \"preventing the disorderly expansion of capital\" to \"developing within regulations\".<b>On January 28, the Central Cyberspace Administration of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the State Administration for Market Regulation, held a symposium on promoting the healthy and sustainable development of Internet companies. At the meeting, the relevant person in charge emphasized that,</b>\"At present, the overall situation and development trend of China's long-term favorable economic development environment have not changed, and the development prospects of Internet enterprises are broad and promising. We must grasp the general trend and strengthen our confidence; The continuous improvement of the rule of law and supervision in China's Internet field is an objective requirement and the general trend, which provides a strong guarantee for Internet enterprises to strengthen management and standardize their operations, and must be correctly viewed and actively adapted.\"</p><p><b>Hong Kong financial stocks benefit from Anglo-American rate hike expectations that the revaluation will continue.</b></p><p><b>The reform of state-owned enterprises is worth looking forward to, and the tide of revaluation of central enterprises is in the ascendant.</b>1) On January 19, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the economic performance of central enterprises in 2021. The relevant person in charge of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission revealed at the meeting that the efficiency growth of central enterprises in 2021 reached the best level in history, achieving operating income of 36.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%, a year-on-year increase of 30.3%, and a year-on-year increase of 29.8%. 2) Under the requirement that \"economic work must be stable and strive for progress while maintaining stability\", the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission stated that in 2022, central enterprises will focus on the goal of \"two increases, one control and three improvements\" to complete the task of stabilizing growth and promote high-quality development. Combine it to promote stability, consolidate stability with progress, and make greater contributions to economic and social development. 3) At the same time, 2022 is the final year of the three-year reform of state-owned enterprises. In the new era of implementing the \"dual carbon\" strategy, high-quality development, and common prosperity, the fundamentals of some Hong Kong-listed central enterprises are ushering in a turning point or transformation opportunity.</p><p><b>3. Investment advice: stay half sober and half drunk in the short term, and defend and fight back; Small wins in the medium term turn into big wins, select individual stocks</b></p><p><b>3.1. The investment strategy of Hong Kong stocks in 2022 needs to be \"based on value, select individual stocks, do a good job in defensive counterattacks, and accumulate small wins into big wins\"</b></p><p>In the medium and long term, it is difficult to change the general framework that Hong Kong stocks are affected by overseas funds, sentiment and Chinese fundamentals at the same time. Under the basic judgment that the Chinese economy is under pressure in the first half of the year, and the continuous rate hike in the United States, the medium-term adjustment of U.S. stocks has not been completed, and the whole year has fluctuated, Hong Kong stock investment in 2022 needs more defensive counterattacks, based on value, and selecting individual stocks, so as to survive and seek advantages and avoid disadvantages, and accumulate small wins into big wins.</p><p><b>3.2. The investment direction of the rebound market in February: based on the improvement of fundamental expectations, focusing on the \"mean reversion\" market</b></p><p>The rebound and differentiation of Internet leaders: The main driving force is short squeezing. It is recommended to do a good job of trading in the short term and not love to fight. As the policy environment of the Internet industry \"develops in regulations\" is regarded as a marginal warming, it is expected to follow the rebound of U.S. technology stocks in the short term. But in the long run, the big logic of the Internet has been subverted and has shifted from the previous \"high growth and high valuation\" to the logic of value stocks. In the medium term, U.S. monetary policy has tightened, and the medium-term bottom of U.S. stocks has not yet been seen. Therefore, the rebound in the Internet sector of Hong Kong stocks in the first half of the year still requires repeated transactions and hedging protection.</p><p>The revaluation market of state-owned enterprises and central enterprises in Hong Kong stocks: 1) In the first quarter, there are opportunities to benefit from the dividends of China's \"wide money and wide credit\" policy. Pay attention to the revaluation market of finance, real estate, construction, building materials, especially \"bond-like\" high-dividend stocks. 2) Reform of state-owned enterprises, especially opportunities for mergers and acquisitions of state-owned enterprises, focusing on opportunities such as railways, electric power, real estate, and securities firms. 3) Opportunities for market prosperity to improve, focus on agriculture.</p><p>Hong Kong's local financial stocks, benefiting from the expectation of European and American rate hike, will continue to be revalued.</p><p>The deep rebound opportunities of industries damaged by the epidemic include selected logistics, catering and tourism, etc.</p><p>Blue-chip stocks in the fields of household appliances and electrical tools exported to Europe and America.</p><p><b>3.3. Based on the medium and long term, select alpha opportunities in Hong Kong stocks</b></p><p><b>Gold Rush Hong Kong stock science and technology innovation company, advanced manufacturing leader.</b>1) New energy vehicle industry chain 2) New energy industry chains such as wind, solar, nuclear and hydrogen, new energy operators, power equipment, etc. 3) Hong Kong stock TMT leader<b>。</b></p><p><b>Wait patiently and increase your holdings of leaders in the field of consumer services on dips.</b>1) Food and beverage 2) Textile and clothing 3) Property management and business management 4) Pharmaceuticals 5) Emerging consumption.</p><p><b>The transformation and revaluation of central enterprises' Hong Kong stocks</b>(For details, please refer to 20220107 \"Good Opportunities for the Allocation of Hong Kong Stocks of High-quality Central Enterprises\").</p><p><b>4. Risk warning</b></p><p>The economic growth rate of China and the United States is declining; Inflation in the United States continues to be high, and U.S. monetary policy has tightened more than expected ahead of schedule; Great power game risk; COVID-19 pandemic mutation exceeded expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1cb237e736a4e03c939622e7b71e8e7","relate_stocks":{"HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109587984","content_text":"1、1月观点及行情回顾1.1、观点回顾：1月策略《港股曙光再现》。1月1日报告《港股曙光再现》中强调，2022年1月港股曙光再现，内外部环境有利于反弹的时间窗口：国内稳经济政策发力，2022年一季度货币政策有望进一步宽松；内地政策环境变化对港股影响在边际改善。1月21日报告《美股大波动，港股缘何大涨？》指出：美国“收水”目前对于“全球估值洼地”港股市场的影响有限，渐渐脱敏；港股在中国“稳增长、宽货币”的政策春风中迎来黎明。1月25日报告《美股短期底和中期底预测及美股波动对中国股市影响》预判美股短期有望企稳反弹，长债利率陡升、市场反身性冲击、1月FOMC等对美股的影响告一段落。美股权重股业绩以及之后可能的回购，将决定后续美股能否出现一波像样的反弹？或只是下跌中继式喘息？另外，中期展望，美股中期底还没有到。1.2、1月行情回顾：上旬，港股权重板块表现强劲；下旬，行情调整，全月恒指收涨1.7%。另外，1月份，恒生国指涨1.4%，恒生综指跌0.2%；行业上能源业、电讯业和综合业领涨，医疗保健业、非必需性消费业和工业领跌。2、港股展望：2月将迎来风险偏好改善，但中期海外风险仍将干扰行情2.1、海外预判：短期美股见底后2月将是反弹窗口；但是，上半年美国货币政策持续收缩，美股中期底还未到2.1.1、短期，美股已见底并有望反弹，有利于提升A股和港股风险偏好美股符合预判，确认短期底。美国长债利率回落；VIX在0128的收盘为27.66，较0124盘中最高值38.94明显回落；FOMC没有超预期更鹰派。后续美股反弹性质取决于基本面预期。后续美股能否出现一波像样的反弹？或只是下跌中继式喘息？《美股短期底和中期底预测及美股波动对中国股市影响》判断这将取决于美股权重股业绩以及之后的回购。苹果公司最新季报超预期带动了美股反弹，后续看0201Alphabet、0202 Meta Platform、0203亚马逊的业绩，并聚焦之后的美股回购和高管增持力度。2月份是北京冬奥会阶段，海外地缘政治风险有望缓和。围绕乌克兰地缘政治风险有望在2月份开始通过谈判逐步降温，进而，对于欧洲能源危机、全球油价风险的担忧将会随之阶段性降温。2.1.2、中期，上半年美国货币政策持续收缩，美股2季度仍有较大波动风险，海外股市波动将是常态，导致港股跌深反弹之路并非坦途首先，上半年美债长端利率易上难下，2月份回落喘息之后将继续上升。美债联储作为美债市场的重要买盘力量，随着联储购债快速退潮，3月份TAPER将结束。基于上半年高通胀，3月首次加息后，联储缩表的讨论也将提上日程，我们判断，美债10年期国债收益率2季度有望突破2%。其次，强劲的加息预期居高不下，也将持续压制上半年美股行情。截至20220128联邦基金利率期货市场已预计联储3月加息不止1次（一次25bp）。基于全球供应链压力居高不下，上半年美国高通胀大概率具有粘性，难以明显回落，不排除市场对联储 3、5、6 月 FOMC 利率决议持续谨慎。第三，基于全球疫情对全球供应链的影响以及前两年政策“大放水”的后遗症，海外高通胀风险以及海外多国加息共振的风险仍不容忽视。2.2、中国宏观展望：政策“以我为主、稳字当头”，政策进一步宽松可期待稳增长基调下，货币政策进一步宽松仍可期待，从而，一方面避免房地产等领域出现系统性信用风险，另一方面，有利于稳预期、稳需求。除了进一步宽货币，春节之后，基建投资特别是新基建将有望发力。2.3、权重板块政策面和基本面的预期改善，港股底部区域有支撑。稳增长政策力度有望进一步加大，港股相关行业仍有上涨动力。1）建筑、建材为代表的传统行业景气改善，低估值港股央企价值重估；2）风光核氢等新能源、电网等“新基建”类股票高景气持续，行情分化；3）内地券商受益于“衰退性宽松”下的资本市场活跃，相关港股的价值有望重估。中国房地产政策边际改善。2022年1月初至今，房地产的政策环境不断改善，向实现良性循环迈进：LPR利率下调；部分城市预售资金监管政策有所放松；1月20日，全国住房和城乡建设工作会议召开，会议强调要把防风险摆在更加突出的位置，防范化解住房和城乡建设领域风险，要更好地激发企业活力，要稳增长，充分释放居民住房需求等。互联网产业政策边际改善。2022年互联网政策导向从“防止资本无序扩张”转向“在规范中发展”，1月28日，中央网信办会同国家发改委、工信部、市场监管总局召开促进互联网企业健康持续发展工作座谈会，会上相关负责人强调，“当前，我国经济发展环境长期利好的整体态势和发展趋势没有改变，互联网企业发展前景广阔、大有作为，必须把握大势、坚定信心；我国互联网领域法治不断健全、监管不断完善是客观要求、大势所趋，这为互联网企业加强管理、规范运营提供了有力保障，必须正确看待、积极适应”。香港金融股受益于英美加息预期，价值重估将继续。国企改革值得期待，央企价值重估的大潮方兴未艾。1）2021年央企效益增长创历史最好水平，净利润同比增长29.8%。2）2022年国内稳经济政策发力，国企央企将承担着稳增长的主要任务。3）2022年国企改革三年行动收官之年，部分港股央企的基本面正迎来转机或转型机遇。3、投资建议：短期留一半清醒留一半醉，防守反击；中期积小胜为大胜，精选个股3.1、2022年港股的投资策略需要“立足价值、精选个股，做好防守反击，积小胜为大胜”。中长期来看，港股同时受海外资金面、情绪面及中国基本面的影响的大框架难以改变。在中国经济上半年面临压力，而美国连续加息，美股中期调整未完、全年震荡的基本判断下，2022年港股投资更加需要防守反击，立足价值、精选个股，才能夹缝中求生存、趋利避害，积小胜为大胜。3.2、2月份反弹行情的投资方向：立足基本面预期改善，聚焦“均值回归”行情：互联网龙头的反弹和分化：主要动力是short squeezing，建议短期做好交易、不要恋战。随着互联网产业政策环境“在规范中发展”算是边际转暖，短期有望跟随美股科技股反弹。但长期而言，互联网的大逻辑已经被颠覆，已经从以往的“高成长高估值”转向价值股逻辑。中期，美国货币政策收紧、美股中期底部还没有见到，所以，上半年港股互联网板块的反弹行情仍要反复做交易、做好对冲保护。国企央企港股的重估行情：1）1季度中国“宽货币、宽信用”政策红利受益的机会，关注金融、地产、建筑、建材特别是“类债券”高息股的价值重估行情。2）国企改革，特别是国企进行并购重组的机会，关注铁路、电力、地产、券商等机会。3）行情景气有望改善的机会，关注农业。香港本地金融股，受益于欧美加息预期，价值重估将继续。疫情受损行业的跌深反弹机会，精选物流、餐饮旅游等。出口欧美的家电及电器工具等领域的绩优股。3.3、立足中长期，精选港股的阿尔法机会。淘金港股科创公司、先进制造业龙头。1）新能源车产业链 2）风光核氢等新能源产业链、新能源运营商、电力设备等 3）港股TMT龙头。耐心等待，逢低增持消费服务领域的龙头。1）食品饮料2）纺织服装3）物管商管4）医药5）新兴消费。央企港股的转型重估行情（详参20220107《优质央企港股的配置良机》）。风险提示：中、美经济增速下行；美国持续高通胀，美国货币政策提前超预期收紧；大国博弈风险；新冠疫情变异超预期报告正文1、1月观点及行情回顾1.1、观点回顾：1月策略《港股曙光再现》2021年10月14日深度报告《防守反击，投资时钟从“类滞胀”转向“衰退”》提出，今年四季度，中国投资时钟下一步更大概率的场景是衰退，10月份正从“类滞胀”转向衰退；四季度欧美仍有滞胀压力，美债收益率和美元反弹带来短期惊扰。港股：底部区域，反复“磨底”、熬炼人心，其中，10月至11月中旬是好的反弹窗口，但反弹以后，不排除到年底的时候港股会面临动荡。2021年11月1日报告《行情磨“底部”更磨人心》指出：港股仍将在底部区域反复“磨底”，结构性行情仍将跟随A股。11月行情展望——10月份反弹以后，港股四季度持续反弹的动能较弱。2021年12月1日报告《在失望之幽谷找寻黎明的曙光》指出：恒指在反复确认底部、港股悲观情绪集中释放后，港股有望迎来反弹。要在失望之幽谷找寻黎明的曙光，精选并耐心布局长线优质股票。2022年1月1日报告《港股曙光再现》中强调，2022年1月港股曙光再现，内外部环境有利于反弹的时间窗口：国内稳经济政策发力，2022年一季度货币政策有望进一步宽松；内地政策环境变化对港股影响在边际改善。2022年1月21日报告《美股大波动，港股缘何大涨？》指出：美国“收水”目前对于“全球估值洼地”港股市场的影响有限，渐渐脱敏；港股在中国“稳增长、宽货币”的政策春风中迎来黎明。2022年1月25日报告《美股短期底和中期底预测及美股波动对中国股市影响》预判美股短期有望企稳反弹，长债利率陡升、市场反身性冲击、1月FOMC等对美股的影响告一段落。美股权重股业绩以及之后可能的回购，将决定后续美股能否出现一波像样的反弹？或只是下跌中继式喘息？另外，中期展望，美股中期底还没有到。1.2、1月行情回顾：上旬，港股权重板块表现强劲；下旬，行情调整，全月恒指收涨1.7%截至1月31日，1月份港股主要指数，恒生指数涨1.7%，恒生国指涨1.4%，恒生综指跌0.2%；另外，恒生大型股涨1.0%，恒生中型股跌4.3%，恒生科技跌4.5%，恒生小型股跌6.3%。行业上，恒生能源业（涨10.5%）、电讯业（涨10.1%）和综合业（涨9.0%）领涨，医疗保健业（跌15.1%）、非必需性消费业（跌11.1%）和工业（跌7.3%）领跌。2、港股展望：2月将迎来风险偏好改善，但中期海外风险仍将干扰行情2.1、海外预判：短期美股见底后2月将是反弹窗口；但是，上半年美国货币政策持续收缩，美股中期底还未到2.1.1、短期，美股已见底并有望反弹，有利于提升A股和港股风险偏好美股符合预判，确认短期底。美国长债利率回落；VIX在0128的收盘为27.66，较0124盘中最高值38.94明显回落；FOMC没有超预期更鹰派。后续美股反弹性质取决于基本面预期。后续美股能否出现一波像样的反弹？或只是下跌中继式喘息？《美股短期底和中期底预测及美股波动对中国股市影响》判断这将取决于美股权重股业绩以及之后的回购。苹果公司(AAPL.US)最新季报超预期带动了美股反弹，后续看0201Alphabet(GOOGL.US)、0202 MetaPlatform(FB.US)、0203亚马逊(AMZN.US)的业绩，并聚焦之后的美股回购和高管增持力度——根据媒体的报道，Netflix(NFLX.US)因业绩不达预期下跌后其联席首席执行官Reed Hastings买入价值2千万美元的Netflix股票。2.1.2、中期，上半年美国货币政策持续收缩，美股2季度仍有较大波动风险，海外股市波动将是常态，导致港股跌深反弹之路并非坦途首先，上半年美债长端利率易上难下，2月份回落喘息之后将继续上升。美债联储作为美债市场的重要买盘力量，随着联储购债快速退潮，3月份Taper将结束。基于上半年高通胀，3月首次加息后，联储缩表的讨论也将提上日程，我们判断，美债10年期国债收益率2季度有望突破2%。关于缩减购债，1月FOMC决议维持当前缩减购债步伐，因此2022年3月联储将结束购债；关于缩表，1月FOMC会后答记者问鲍威尔表示“将在加息至少一次之后开会讨论具体缩表事宜”。其次，强劲的加息预期居高不下，也将持续压制上半年美股行情。截至20220128联邦基金利率期货市场已预计联储3月加息不止1次（一次25bp）。基于全球供应链压力居高不下，上半年美国高通胀大概率具有粘性，难以明显回落，不排除市场对联储 3、5、6 月 FOMC 利率决议持续谨慎。第三，基于全球疫情对全球供应链的影响以及前两年政策“大放水”的后遗症，海外高通胀风险以及海外多国加息共振的风险仍不容忽视。目前新兴市场加息应对联储收紧，发达市场方面，据媒体报道，市场预计0203英国央行、0223新西兰央行、0302加拿大央行也大概率加息，0203欧洲央行的今年首次利率决议表态也至关重要。2.2、中国宏观展望：政策“以我为主、稳字当头”，政策进一步宽松可期待稳增长基调下，货币政策进一步宽松仍可期待，从而，一方面避免房地产等领域出现系统性信用风险，另一方面，有利于稳预期、稳需求。当前经济增速仍面临下行压力，1季度房地产债务到期压力加大，房地产等领域的信用风险及其对经济的拖累依然不容低估，所以，近期调降MLF、各个期限的LPR是积极的应对信号，后续货币及财政的进一步宽松值得期待。除了进一步宽货币，春节之后，基建投资特别是新基建将有望发力。在经济增速仍面临较大下行压力的大背景下，2021年四季度，实际GDP同比增长4.0%，较三季度回落0.9个百分点。受疫情反复的拖累，消费增速短暂回暖后再次承压。当前，在房住不炒、不把房地产作为刺激经济的主要手段的前提下，能够快速稳经济的主要手段，依然要依靠“稳基建”，特别是长期有利于调结构短期有利于稳增长的广义“新基建”。根据兴业证券宏观团队研究，2022年提前批次的新增专项债额度已于2021年12月下达，下达时间略早于2021年同期，体现政府“适度超前开展基础设施投资”的决心。随着11月、12月专项债发行加速，12月基建增速已有回暖，往后看，2022年上半年基建投资或迎来发力。2.3、权重板块政策面和基本面的预期改善，港股底部区域有支撑稳增长政策力度有望进一步加大，港股相关行业仍有上涨动力。1）建筑、建材为代表的传统行业景气改善，低估值港股央企价值重估；2）风光核氢等新能源、电网等“新基建”类股票高景气持续，行情分化；3）内地券商受益于“衰退性宽松”下的资本市场活跃，相关港股的价值有望重估。中国房地产政策边际改善。2022年1月初至今，房地产的政策环境不断改善，向实现良性循环迈进：LPR利率下调；部分城市预售资金监管政策有所放松；1月20日，全国住房和城乡建设工作会议召开，会议强调要把防风险摆在更加突出的位置，防范化解住房和城乡建设领域风险，要更好地激发企业活力，要稳增长，充分释放居民住房需求等。互联网产业政策边际改善。2022年互联网政策导向从“防止资本无序扩张”转向“在规范中发展”，1月28日，中央网信办会同国家发改委、工信部、市场监管总局召开促进互联网企业健康持续发展工作座谈会，会上相关负责人强调，“当前，我国经济发展环境长期利好的整体态势和发展趋势没有改变，互联网企业发展前景广阔、大有作为，必须把握大势、坚定信心；我国互联网领域法治不断健全、监管不断完善是客观要求、大势所趋，这为互联网企业加强管理、规范运营提供了有力保障，必须正确看待、积极适应”。香港金融股受益于英美加息预期，价值重估将继续。国企改革值得期待，央企价值重估的大潮方兴未艾。1）1月19日，国新办举行2021年央企经济运行情况新闻发布会，国资委相关负责人在会上透露，2021年中央企业效益增长创历史最好水平，实现营业收入36.3万亿元，同比增长19.5%，利润同比增长了30.3%，净利润同比增长了29.8%。2）在“经济工作要稳字当头、稳中求进”的要求下，国资委表示，2022年央企将围绕“两增一控三提高”的目标，把完成稳增长任务和推动高质量发展结合起来，以稳促进、以进固稳，为经济社会发展作出更大贡献。3）同时，2022年是国企改革三年行动收官之年，在实施“双碳”战略、高质量发展、共同富裕的新时代，部分港股央企的基本面正迎来转机或转型机遇。3、投资建议：短期留一半清醒留一半醉，防守反击；中期积小胜为大胜，精选个股3.1、2022年港股的投资策略需要“立足价值、精选个股，做好防守反击，积小胜为大胜”中长期来看，港股同时受海外资金面、情绪面及中国基本面的影响的大框架难以改变。在中国经济上半年面临压力，而美国连续加息，美股中期调整未完、全年震荡的基本判断下，2022年港股投资更加需要防守反击，立足价值、精选个股，才能夹缝中求生存、趋利避害，积小胜为大胜。3.2、2月份反弹行情的投资方向：立足基本面预期改善，聚焦“均值回归”行情互联网龙头的反弹和分化：主要动力是short squeezing，建议短期做好交易、不要恋战。随着互联网产业政策环境“在规范中发展”算是边际转暖，短期有望跟随美股科技股反弹。但长期而言，互联网的大逻辑已经被颠覆，已经从以往的“高成长高估值”转向价值股逻辑。中期，美国货币政策收紧、美股中期底部还没有见到，所以，上半年港股互联网板块的反弹行情仍要反复做交易、做好对冲保护。国企央企港股的重估行情：1）1季度中国“宽货币、宽信用”政策红利受益的机会，关注金融、地产、建筑、建材特别是“类债券”高息股的价值重估行情。2）国企改革，特别是国企进行并购重组的机会，关注铁路、电力、地产、券商等机会。3）行情景气有望改善的机会，关注农业。香港本地金融股，受益于欧美加息预期，价值重估将继续。疫情受损行业的跌深反弹机会，精选物流、餐饮旅游等。出口欧美的家电及电器工具等领域的绩优股。3.3、立足中长期，精选港股的阿尔法机会淘金港股科创公司、先进制造业龙头。1）新能源车产业链2）风光核氢等新能源产业链、新能源运营商、电力设备等3）港股TMT龙头。耐心等待，逢低增持消费服务领域的龙头。1）食品饮料2）纺织服装3）物管商管4）医药5）新兴消费。央企港股的转型重估行情（详参20220107《优质央企港股的配置良机》）。4、风险提示中、美经济增速下行；美国持续高通胀，美国货币政策提前超预期收紧；大国博弈风险；新冠疫情变异超预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSI":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1964,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9090582697,"gmtCreate":1643232635672,"gmtModify":1676533787042,"author":{"id":"3564108727353086","authorId":"3564108727353086","name":"Futre","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/912eae14e80f11fedbc3bdb7e10bb6d0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564108727353086","idStr":"3564108727353086"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9090582697","repostId":"1147161020","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147161020","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1643203287,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1147161020?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-26 21:21","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"China Evergrande: The company plans to launch a preliminary restructuring plan in the next 6 months","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147161020","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"1月26日，在今日晚间召开的投资人会议上，中国恒大执行董事肖恩表示，中国恒大董事会及风险化解委员会及管理团队，正共同制定全面、细致、有效的计划，研究各种潜在方案，计划于未来6个月内推出初步重组方案。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On January 26, at the investor meeting held this evening,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03333\">China Evergrande</a>Executive Director Sean said that China Evergrande's board of directors, risk mitigation committee and management team are jointly formulating a comprehensive, detailed and effective plan, studying various potential plans, and planning to launch a preliminary restructuring plan in the next six months.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChina Evergrande: The company plans to launch a preliminary restructuring plan in the next 6 months\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-01-26 21:21</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On January 26, at the investor meeting held this evening,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03333\">China Evergrande</a>Executive Director Sean said that China Evergrande's board of directors, risk mitigation committee and management team are jointly formulating a comprehensive, detailed and effective plan, studying various potential plans, and planning to launch a preliminary restructuring plan in the next six months.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6fcdaee085f89a043698b2126b966fe","relate_stocks":{"03333":"中国恒大"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147161020","content_text":"1月26日，在今日晚间召开的投资人会议上，中国恒大执行董事肖恩表示，中国恒大董事会及风险化解委员会及管理团队，正共同制定全面、细致、有效的计划，研究各种潜在方案，计划于未来6个月内推出初步重组方案。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"03333":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2485,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":812093766,"gmtCreate":1630540183555,"gmtModify":1676530332302,"author":{"id":"3564108727353086","authorId":"3564108727353086","name":"Futre","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/912eae14e80f11fedbc3bdb7e10bb6d0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564108727353086","idStr":"3564108727353086"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"keep 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