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什么是情绪推动的股票？炒作的股票是无法判断是否过高的，因为炒

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- Long4906Long4906
  ·2021-01-17
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- Long4906Long4906
  ·2020-12-19
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  2020 US Stock Market Extreme Model: This is full of overnight riches and panicked bankruptcies.
  2020年，始料未及的新冠疫情席卷全球，人们惊恐、无奈、悲伤、激动，所有这些情绪被潜移默化地在股市中放大，美国股市在今年经历了或许是历史上最为戏剧性的走势，从年初牛市初现，到3月份因疫情而闪崩，随后又
  2020 US Stock Market Extreme Model: This is full of overnight riches and panicked bankruptcies.
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- Long4906Long4906
  ·2020-12-18
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  2020 US Stock Market Extreme Model: This is full of overnight riches and panicked bankruptcies.
  2020年，始料未及的新冠疫情席卷全球，人们惊恐、无奈、悲伤、激动，所有这些情绪被潜移默化地在股市中放大，美国股市在今年经历了或许是历史上最为戏剧性的走势，从年初牛市初现，到3月份因疫情而闪崩，随后又
  2020 US Stock Market Extreme Model: This is full of overnight riches and panicked bankruptcies.
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- Long4906Long4906
  ·2020-12-15
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All these emotions were subtly amplified in the stock market. The US stock market experienced perhaps the most dramatic trend in history this year, from the initial bull market at the beginning of the year to the flash crash in March due to the pandemic, and then soaring to record highs. In this process, countless dreams about money were born and soared, and countless dreams were shattered.</p><p>Just as people have fallen into an abnormal state of life, the US stock market has also entered an \"abnormal\" mode this year. The progress of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Federal Reserve's unconventionally loose monetary policy have together formed the overall framework of the market's trend. As news of vaccine launches and expectations for the gradual return of economic life to normal gradually take root in people's hearts, whether the market can also return to normal next year is the basic logic that investors should refer to when making specific investment decisions.</p><p><b>U.S. stock market enters \"extreme\" mode in 2020</b></p><p>The U.S. stock market experienced perhaps the most dramatic trend in history in 2020. At the beginning of the year, investors entered the market with optimism, driving the S&P 500 to a record high. However, the unexpected COVID-19 pandemic swept in. Due to the deep spread of panic in the market, from the end of February to March, the market experienced a \"flash crash,\" with the S&P 500 index falling by 1,000 points in one month, a drop of more than 30%, setting a record for the shortest time in history to go from a bull market to a bear market.</p><p>During that darkest month, almost every trading day was thrilling for investors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average even experienced multiple circuit breakers on some trading days, an unprecedented event in history. However, what happened next surprised investors. Starting in early April, the market launched a full-scale counterattack, rising all the way up. In September, it recovered all the ground it had lost this year and set a new historical high. In just six months, the market completed a remarkable counterattack.</p><p>After entering the fourth quarter, the market experienced a downward trend due to the resurgence of the epidemic. However, with the release of positive news about the vaccine, the market continued to rise in November and moved towards a new historical high again. Even taking into account the sharp drop in March, the S&P 500 has still risen 14% this year.</p><p>Looking at the market's trend this year, the COVID-19 pandemic, related news, and monetary and fiscal stimulus measures have comprehensively dominated the market's performance. The decline was most pronounced in March. Subsequently, the Federal Reserve promptly introduced large-scale and unconventional monetary stimulus measures, injecting massive amounts of liquidity into the market and turning the tide. Against the backdrop of the Fed's loose monetary policy, news related to the pandemic caused short-term fluctuations in the market, such as progress in vaccine development, confirmed COVID-19 cases, record-high death tolls, and progress in fiscal stimulus policy negotiations.</p><p>Against the backdrop of an overall market rally, individual stock performance has diverged significantly this year. As the pandemic spread across the board, tourism, entertainment, catering, and aviation sectors suffered direct impacts, resulting in heavy market capitalization losses and many companies teetering on the brink of bankruptcy. Meanwhile, technology stocks, especially those that benefited from the pandemic, such as...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>The stock price surged, becoming the only bright spot in the market during the deep decline.</p><p><b>The fiscal cliff and the exhaustion of the Federal Reserve's stimulus policies are bringing dual pressures.</b></p><p>While the stock market continues to rise, the economic fundamentals have not shown any signs of fundamental improvement, and the prospects for the recovery of the US economy are still dominated by the pandemic.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>A recently released research report warns that if Congress fails to pass a new round of fiscal stimulus, it will have to lower its fourth-quarter growth forecast for the U.S. economy.</p><p>Some economists have also pointed out that recovering from the current stage to the normal level before the pandemic is more difficult, \"recovering to 60-80% is much easier than recovering to 100%.\"</p><p>At the same time, expecting the Federal Reserve to further implement large-scale monetary stimulus policies is becoming increasingly unrealistic. Since the implementation of unprecedented large-scale monetary stimulus policies in March, the Federal Reserve's policy measures have become increasingly stretched. At the same time, excessively rapid and aggressive monetary stimulus measures will also bring some drawbacks in the long run.</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell also conveyed this signal to the market in his recent speech. He stated that more fiscal policy support is needed if the economic recovery is to get back on track in the future. The implication is not to expect the Federal Reserve to introduce further new stimulus measures.</p><p>In terms of policy implementation effects, monetary policy is more effective in the short term, while fiscal policy has a more significant effect on the economy in the medium to long term. Six months after the development of the epidemic, relying on fiscal policy to achieve economic recovery and long-term improvement has become a more rational and natural expectation.</p><p>Judging from market performance, whether the second round of fiscal stimulus package can ultimately be passed will have a significant short-term impact on the market and provide a foundation for long-term economic recovery.</p><p><b>Returning to normalized expectations and wariness: Overly optimistic</b></p><p>A major factor driving market trends in 2021 is the expectation that economic life will return to normal and its impact on specific industries and companies. With the COVID-19 vaccine approved at the end of 2020 and expected to be fully rolled out in the first half of 2021, investors generally expect the pandemic to be effectively controlled, and industries that were previously suppressed by the pandemic are expected to recover.</p><p>Judging from recent market trends, the progress of vaccine research and development and approval is undoubtedly the most important stimulating factor for the market to rise sharply in the short term. If the vaccine is ultimately proven to be able to effectively suppress the epidemic, it will mean that the epidemic that has affected the normal operation of the whole society for nearly a year is expected to end, and economic activities are expected to recover to pre-epidemic levels. This is also the fundamental logic behind the market rise.</p><p>However, it is worth noting that short-term positive news does not necessarily mean a fundamental change in the situation. At the same time, the recovery of economic activity in various industries will be a gradual process, just as...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>As previously stated in the statement, the large-scale popularization of vaccines will not be until 2021, which means that before then, economic and social life will still be significantly suppressed by the epidemic.</p><p>A document by<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>The results of a survey conducted last month showed that investors believe the biggest risk to the market next year is that vaccines cannot control the spread of the virus. The results show that investors remain cautiously optimistic about the role of vaccines.</p><p>From the perspective of the monetary policy environment, as the economic recovery has not yet fully taken hold, the survival of many industries and companies remains precarious. The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain its loose monetary policy in 2021. This has been clearly stated to the outside world in several recent press conferences by the Federal Reserve. The loose monetary policy has provided effective support for the market and given investors reason to remain optimistic about the future.</p><p>Specifically, pharmaceutical-related companies will undoubtedly be among the direct beneficiaries. At the same time, many industries that were almost paralyzed due to the pandemic, such as aviation, tourism, consumption, and entertainment, are expected to see their valuations significantly revalued in anticipation of the normalization of economic and social life. The medium- to long-term performance of these sectors is worth paying attention to.</p><p>In the medium to long term, the pandemic will remain a key factor driving market trends. Although Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine has been approved by the FDA, the pandemic is still worsening in European and American countries. The total number of confirmed cases in the United States has exceeded 10 million and is still increasing at a rate of more than 100,000 cases per day. In addition, the pandemic in European countries has also shown an upward trend, and positive news about the vaccine will not change the development trend of the pandemic in the short term.</p><p>From an economic fundamental perspective, the US economy is already showing clear signs of recovery. Both the record-breaking third-quarter GDP data and employment figures reflect a substantial economic recovery during the pandemic. It is not difficult to foresee that with the widespread availability of effective vaccines, the economy will continue to show a further positive trend. Industries that were suppressed during the pandemic will still experience a slow recovery as economic life gradually returns to normal. At the same time, industries and companies that previously benefited from the pandemic need to be treated with caution and investment opportunities should be considered more from the perspective of value return. The recent sharp declines in stocks such as Zoom and Netflix have clearly released this signal.</p><p><b>Young investors flocking to the market lack risk awareness</b></p><p>This year's market boom has also attracted a large influx of young investors. They trade through emerging brokerage platforms such as Robinhood. With their features such as zero commissions, simple and user-friendly interface, optimization for mobile devices, and encouragement of high-risk trading such as options and margin, they have quickly attracted a large number of young investors. Their model is also impacting traditional brokerage platforms. Fidelity, Charles Schwab, eTrade and others have successively announced zero commissions in hopes of retaining customers and attracting young customers.</p><p>A Robinhood user<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>The news outlet \"Deep View\" stated that it has been using the Robinhood platform since last year and has become accustomed to its interface. During the market crash in March of this year, Robinhood experienced a system crash due to insufficient server resources due to an excessive number of instantaneous users. The user said that he wanted to sell a stock in his account, but the transaction could not be completed on the Robinhood platform, which made him very disappointed with the platform's reliability. So he decided to choose another trading platform.</p><p>However, after searching the market and trying several, he found that none of them were better than Robinhood, such as Fidelity and eTrade. Although these established brokerage platforms have launched mobile trading clients, they are not as easy to operate as Robinhood, which is a pure internet company. Either the transaction efficiency is low or the interface is unfriendly. In the end, the user had to go back to Robinhood.</p><p>\"I know Robinhood still has a lot of minor issues, and the server might crash if the transaction volume is too high, but it's still the best platform to use compared to other platforms,\" the user said helplessly.</p><p>In addition, the global spread of the novel coronavirus has objectively prompted more and more ordinary investors to join in. The COVID-19 pandemic led to a sharp decline in the U.S. stock market in March, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average experiencing multiple circuit breakers. The market quickly turned from a bull market to a bear market. At the same time, due to the pandemic, many young people returning home from school found a new place to squander their energy – the stock market.</p><p>With a simple registration, they can open an account on Robinhood and start trading in just a few minutes. To encourage more users to join, Robinhood has also launched a campaign to give away stocks or trading cash for referring friends to join.</p><p>During this year's stock market rally, a group of young investors active on Robinhood have indeed made money. They are happy to share their investment performance on some investment trading forums, and the myth of getting rich overnight seems to be all around them. These factors are encouraging more young people to take greater risks in order to achieve high returns in a short period of time.</p><p>Under the influence of various factors, the business of emerging internet brokerage trading platforms, represented by Robinhood, has developed rapidly. Since 2016, Robinhood's user base has grown from 1 million to 10 million, most of whom are young investors who lack investment experience and risk awareness. Currently, Robinhood is seeking an IPO, and its valuation has reached $20 billion.</p><p>For young investors, pursuing high returns requires higher-risk margin trading and options trading, and the Robinhood platform offers almost barrier-free trading opportunities for these transactions.</p><p>According to Tencent News' \"Perspective,\" almost anyone can trade stock options on Robinhood. Robinhood only provides two tips: update your investment profile before trading options, and you need to have stock trading experience before trading options.</p><p>Robinhood claims that there are no transaction fees, no monthly fees, and no need to become a Gold subscriber to buy and sell options. \"Your account supports options trading immediately\" is Robinhood's slogan.</p><p>In addition, for margin trading, if investors want to participate, they need to become a Robinhood Gold subscription member. For an annual fee of $5 per month, they can instantly open a margin trading account. The maximum margin amount that investors can receive is 1:1 to the account funds. That is, if they deposit 1,000 yuan in trading amount, they can receive an additional 1,000 yuan from Robinhood, and their purchasing power will double.</p><p>Regarding the risks of margin trading, Robinhood only provides a brief description and a few examples on its support and help page. However, for young investors flocking in, it is questionable how many people have a clear understanding of the potential investment risks.</p>","source":"lsy1596081546069","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2020 US Stock Market Extreme Model: This is full of overnight riches and panicked bankruptcies.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2020 US Stock Market Extreme Model: This is full of overnight riches and panicked bankruptcies.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">腾讯新闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2020-12-18 15:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In 2020, the unexpected COVID-19 pandemic swept the globe, causing people to fear, helplessness, sadness, and excitement. All these emotions were subtly amplified in the stock market. The US stock market experienced perhaps the most dramatic trend in history this year, from the initial bull market at the beginning of the year to the flash crash in March due to the pandemic, and then soaring to record highs. In this process, countless dreams about money were born and soared, and countless dreams were shattered.</p><p>Just as people have fallen into an abnormal state of life, the US stock market has also entered an \"abnormal\" mode this year. The progress of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Federal Reserve's unconventionally loose monetary policy have together formed the overall framework of the market's trend. As news of vaccine launches and expectations for the gradual return of economic life to normal gradually take root in people's hearts, whether the market can also return to normal next year is the basic logic that investors should refer to when making specific investment decisions.</p><p><b>U.S. stock market enters \"extreme\" mode in 2020</b></p><p>The U.S. stock market experienced perhaps the most dramatic trend in history in 2020. At the beginning of the year, investors entered the market with optimism, driving the S&P 500 to a record high. However, the unexpected COVID-19 pandemic swept in. Due to the deep spread of panic in the market, from the end of February to March, the market experienced a \"flash crash,\" with the S&P 500 index falling by 1,000 points in one month, a drop of more than 30%, setting a record for the shortest time in history to go from a bull market to a bear market.</p><p>During that darkest month, almost every trading day was thrilling for investors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average even experienced multiple circuit breakers on some trading days, an unprecedented event in history. However, what happened next surprised investors. Starting in early April, the market launched a full-scale counterattack, rising all the way up. In September, it recovered all the ground it had lost this year and set a new historical high. In just six months, the market completed a remarkable counterattack.</p><p>After entering the fourth quarter, the market experienced a downward trend due to the resurgence of the epidemic. However, with the release of positive news about the vaccine, the market continued to rise in November and moved towards a new historical high again. Even taking into account the sharp drop in March, the S&P 500 has still risen 14% this year.</p><p>Looking at the market's trend this year, the COVID-19 pandemic, related news, and monetary and fiscal stimulus measures have comprehensively dominated the market's performance. The decline was most pronounced in March. Subsequently, the Federal Reserve promptly introduced large-scale and unconventional monetary stimulus measures, injecting massive amounts of liquidity into the market and turning the tide. Against the backdrop of the Fed's loose monetary policy, news related to the pandemic caused short-term fluctuations in the market, such as progress in vaccine development, confirmed COVID-19 cases, record-high death tolls, and progress in fiscal stimulus policy negotiations.</p><p>Against the backdrop of an overall market rally, individual stock performance has diverged significantly this year. As the pandemic spread across the board, tourism, entertainment, catering, and aviation sectors suffered direct impacts, resulting in heavy market capitalization losses and many companies teetering on the brink of bankruptcy. Meanwhile, technology stocks, especially those that benefited from the pandemic, such as...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>The stock price surged, becoming the only bright spot in the market during the deep decline.</p><p><b>The fiscal cliff and the exhaustion of the Federal Reserve's stimulus policies are bringing dual pressures.</b></p><p>While the stock market continues to rise, the economic fundamentals have not shown any signs of fundamental improvement, and the prospects for the recovery of the US economy are still dominated by the pandemic.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>A recently released research report warns that if Congress fails to pass a new round of fiscal stimulus, it will have to lower its fourth-quarter growth forecast for the U.S. economy.</p><p>Some economists have also pointed out that recovering from the current stage to the normal level before the pandemic is more difficult, \"recovering to 60-80% is much easier than recovering to 100%.\"</p><p>At the same time, expecting the Federal Reserve to further implement large-scale monetary stimulus policies is becoming increasingly unrealistic. Since the implementation of unprecedented large-scale monetary stimulus policies in March, the Federal Reserve's policy measures have become increasingly stretched. At the same time, excessively rapid and aggressive monetary stimulus measures will also bring some drawbacks in the long run.</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell also conveyed this signal to the market in his recent speech. He stated that more fiscal policy support is needed if the economic recovery is to get back on track in the future. The implication is not to expect the Federal Reserve to introduce further new stimulus measures.</p><p>In terms of policy implementation effects, monetary policy is more effective in the short term, while fiscal policy has a more significant effect on the economy in the medium to long term. Six months after the development of the epidemic, relying on fiscal policy to achieve economic recovery and long-term improvement has become a more rational and natural expectation.</p><p>Judging from market performance, whether the second round of fiscal stimulus package can ultimately be passed will have a significant short-term impact on the market and provide a foundation for long-term economic recovery.</p><p><b>Returning to normalized expectations and wariness: Overly optimistic</b></p><p>A major factor driving market trends in 2021 is the expectation that economic life will return to normal and its impact on specific industries and companies. With the COVID-19 vaccine approved at the end of 2020 and expected to be fully rolled out in the first half of 2021, investors generally expect the pandemic to be effectively controlled, and industries that were previously suppressed by the pandemic are expected to recover.</p><p>Judging from recent market trends, the progress of vaccine research and development and approval is undoubtedly the most important stimulating factor for the market to rise sharply in the short term. If the vaccine is ultimately proven to be able to effectively suppress the epidemic, it will mean that the epidemic that has affected the normal operation of the whole society for nearly a year is expected to end, and economic activities are expected to recover to pre-epidemic levels. This is also the fundamental logic behind the market rise.</p><p>However, it is worth noting that short-term positive news does not necessarily mean a fundamental change in the situation. At the same time, the recovery of economic activity in various industries will be a gradual process, just as...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>As previously stated in the statement, the large-scale popularization of vaccines will not be until 2021, which means that before then, economic and social life will still be significantly suppressed by the epidemic.</p><p>A document by<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>The results of a survey conducted last month showed that investors believe the biggest risk to the market next year is that vaccines cannot control the spread of the virus. The results show that investors remain cautiously optimistic about the role of vaccines.</p><p>From the perspective of the monetary policy environment, as the economic recovery has not yet fully taken hold, the survival of many industries and companies remains precarious. The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain its loose monetary policy in 2021. This has been clearly stated to the outside world in several recent press conferences by the Federal Reserve. The loose monetary policy has provided effective support for the market and given investors reason to remain optimistic about the future.</p><p>Specifically, pharmaceutical-related companies will undoubtedly be among the direct beneficiaries. At the same time, many industries that were almost paralyzed due to the pandemic, such as aviation, tourism, consumption, and entertainment, are expected to see their valuations significantly revalued in anticipation of the normalization of economic and social life. The medium- to long-term performance of these sectors is worth paying attention to.</p><p>In the medium to long term, the pandemic will remain a key factor driving market trends. Although Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine has been approved by the FDA, the pandemic is still worsening in European and American countries. The total number of confirmed cases in the United States has exceeded 10 million and is still increasing at a rate of more than 100,000 cases per day. In addition, the pandemic in European countries has also shown an upward trend, and positive news about the vaccine will not change the development trend of the pandemic in the short term.</p><p>From an economic fundamental perspective, the US economy is already showing clear signs of recovery. Both the record-breaking third-quarter GDP data and employment figures reflect a substantial economic recovery during the pandemic. It is not difficult to foresee that with the widespread availability of effective vaccines, the economy will continue to show a further positive trend. Industries that were suppressed during the pandemic will still experience a slow recovery as economic life gradually returns to normal. At the same time, industries and companies that previously benefited from the pandemic need to be treated with caution and investment opportunities should be considered more from the perspective of value return. The recent sharp declines in stocks such as Zoom and Netflix have clearly released this signal.</p><p><b>Young investors flocking to the market lack risk awareness</b></p><p>This year's market boom has also attracted a large influx of young investors. They trade through emerging brokerage platforms such as Robinhood. With their features such as zero commissions, simple and user-friendly interface, optimization for mobile devices, and encouragement of high-risk trading such as options and margin, they have quickly attracted a large number of young investors. Their model is also impacting traditional brokerage platforms. Fidelity, Charles Schwab, eTrade and others have successively announced zero commissions in hopes of retaining customers and attracting young customers.</p><p>A Robinhood user<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>The news outlet \"Deep View\" stated that it has been using the Robinhood platform since last year and has become accustomed to its interface. During the market crash in March of this year, Robinhood experienced a system crash due to insufficient server resources due to an excessive number of instantaneous users. The user said that he wanted to sell a stock in his account, but the transaction could not be completed on the Robinhood platform, which made him very disappointed with the platform's reliability. So he decided to choose another trading platform.</p><p>However, after searching the market and trying several, he found that none of them were better than Robinhood, such as Fidelity and eTrade. Although these established brokerage platforms have launched mobile trading clients, they are not as easy to operate as Robinhood, which is a pure internet company. Either the transaction efficiency is low or the interface is unfriendly. In the end, the user had to go back to Robinhood.</p><p>\"I know Robinhood still has a lot of minor issues, and the server might crash if the transaction volume is too high, but it's still the best platform to use compared to other platforms,\" the user said helplessly.</p><p>In addition, the global spread of the novel coronavirus has objectively prompted more and more ordinary investors to join in. The COVID-19 pandemic led to a sharp decline in the U.S. stock market in March, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average experiencing multiple circuit breakers. The market quickly turned from a bull market to a bear market. At the same time, due to the pandemic, many young people returning home from school found a new place to squander their energy – the stock market.</p><p>With a simple registration, they can open an account on Robinhood and start trading in just a few minutes. To encourage more users to join, Robinhood has also launched a campaign to give away stocks or trading cash for referring friends to join.</p><p>During this year's stock market rally, a group of young investors active on Robinhood have indeed made money. They are happy to share their investment performance on some investment trading forums, and the myth of getting rich overnight seems to be all around them. These factors are encouraging more young people to take greater risks in order to achieve high returns in a short period of time.</p><p>Under the influence of various factors, the business of emerging internet brokerage trading platforms, represented by Robinhood, has developed rapidly. Since 2016, Robinhood's user base has grown from 1 million to 10 million, most of whom are young investors who lack investment experience and risk awareness. Currently, Robinhood is seeking an IPO, and its valuation has reached $20 billion.</p><p>For young investors, pursuing high returns requires higher-risk margin trading and options trading, and the Robinhood platform offers almost barrier-free trading opportunities for these transactions.</p><p>According to Tencent News' \"Perspective,\" almost anyone can trade stock options on Robinhood. Robinhood only provides two tips: update your investment profile before trading options, and you need to have stock trading experience before trading options.</p><p>Robinhood claims that there are no transaction fees, no monthly fees, and no need to become a Gold subscriber to buy and sell options. \"Your account supports options trading immediately\" is Robinhood's slogan.</p><p>In addition, for margin trading, if investors want to participate, they need to become a Robinhood Gold subscription member. For an annual fee of $5 per month, they can instantly open a margin trading account. The maximum margin amount that investors can receive is 1:1 to the account funds. That is, if they deposit 1,000 yuan in trading amount, they can receive an additional 1,000 yuan from Robinhood, and their purchasing power will double.</p><p>Regarding the risks of margin trading, Robinhood only provides a brief description and a few examples on its support and help page. However, for young investors flocking in, it is questionable how many people have a clear understanding of the potential investment risks.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://new.qq.com/omn/20201218/20201218A01XV800.html\">腾讯新闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b3b5e72649367d0aafd9bcbbca9bcd1","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://new.qq.com/omn/20201218/20201218A01XV800.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159326672","content_text":"2020年，始料未及的新冠疫情席卷全球，人们惊恐、无奈、悲伤、激动，所有这些情绪被潜移默化地在股市中放大，美国股市在今年经历了或许是历史上最为戏剧性的走势，从年初牛市初现，到3月份因疫情而闪崩，随后又一路高歌猛进创下历史新高，在这其中，无数关于金钱的美梦孕育、升腾，又有无数的美梦破灭。\n与人们陷入非正常生活状态一样，美国股市今年也进入了“非正常”模式，新冠疫情的进展和美联储超常规的宽松货币政策，共同形成了市场整体走势的大框架，随着疫苗上市的消息和经济生活逐步回归正常的期待逐渐深入人心，明年市场是否也能够回归常态化，是投资者在进行具体投资决策时，所要参考的基本逻辑。\n2020年美国股市进入“极端”模式\n美国股市在2020年经历了可能是史上最为戏剧性的走势，年初，投资者们带着乐观的情绪进入市场，推动标普500指数创下历史新高，然而始料未及的新冠疫情席卷而来，由于恐慌情绪在市场中的深度蔓延，从2月底至3月，市场经历了“闪崩”，标普500指数一个月的时间内滑落千点，跌幅超过30%，创下历史上由牛市进入熊市的最短时间纪录。\n在那最黑暗的一个月内，几乎每一个交易日都让投资者惊心动魄，道指甚至在某些交易日内出现多次熔断，历史上前所未见，但接下来发生的事又让投资者颇为意外，从4月初开始，市场进入全面反攻，一路上扬，并在9月份收复今年以来全部失地，并再度创下历史新高，用了半年的时间，市场完成了绝地大反击。\n进入第四季度后，由于疫情重新抬头，市场一度出现震荡下行走势，但随着疫苗的利好消息出炉，市场在进入11月份以后继续重拾升势，再度朝着历史新高迈进。今年以来，即便考虑进3月份大跌因素，标普500指数依然出现了14%的涨幅。\n从市场今年以来走势来看，新冠疫情以及围绕疫情相关的消息及货币、财政刺激手段，全面主导了市场的走势。3月份的一轮下跌表现得最为显著，随后，美联储及时出台大规模超常规货币刺激措施，向市场注入天量流动性，起到了力挽狂澜的作用，在美联储宽松货币政策背景下，与疫情相关的消息又对市场造成了短期波动因素，例如疫苗研发进展、新冠确诊、死亡人数创新高、财政刺激政策谈判进展等。\n在市场整体走高的背景下，个股走势在今年也出现明显分化，在疫情全面蔓延之际，旅游、娱乐、餐饮、航空等遭受直接冲击，市值损失惨重，许多公司濒临破产边缘，与此同时，科技类股，尤其是因疫情受益的个股，如亚马逊、Zoom等股价则突飞猛进，成为了市场在深度下跌阶段中唯一的亮点。\n财政悬崖、美联储刺激政策耗尽带来双重压力\n在股市不断走高的同时，经济基本面则并没有出现根本性好转的迹象，美国经济的复苏前景依然受疫情因素的主导。\n高盛近日发布的研究报告警告称，如果国会无法通过新一轮财政刺激手段，将不得不下调美国经济第四季度的增长预期。\n有经济学家也指出，从目前阶段复苏到疫情前的正常水平更加艰难，“复苏至60-80%要比恢复至100%容易得多。”\n与此同时，指望美联储进一步实施大规模货币刺激政策越来越成为一种奢望，自3月份实施史无前例的大规模货币刺激政策措施后，美联储的政策手段越来越捉襟见肘，同时，过快过猛的货币刺激手段，在长期也将带来一些弊端。\n美联储主席鲍威尔近日讲话中也向市场传达了这一信号。他表示，未来如果希望经济复苏走向正轨，需要更多财政政策的支持。言下之意，不要指望美联储进一步推出新的刺激措施。\n从政策实施效果上来看，货币政策更多地在短期起作用，而财政政策则是在中长期对于经济的作用效果更为显著，在疫情发展半年后，依靠财政政策实现经济的复苏和长期向好成为了一种更为理性自然的预期。\n从市场的表现来看，第二轮财政刺激方案最终能否获得通过，将对市场产生短期显著影响，也将为长期经济复苏提供基础。\n回归常态化的期许和警惕过度乐观\n对于2021年，主导市场走势的一大背景是对于经济生活回归常态化的预期以及对具体行业和公司的影响。由于新冠疫苗在2020年底获批并预计在2021年上半年全面普及，投资者普遍预期疫情将得到有效控制，前期受到疫情抑制的行业将有望复苏。\n从近期市场走势来看，疫苗的研发和获批上市进展无疑是目前刺激市场短期内大幅走高的最重要刺激因素，如果疫苗最终证实能够有效抑制疫情，将意味着影响整个社会正常运转将近一年的疫情将有望终结，经济活动有望恢复到疫情之前，这也是助推市场上涨的根本逻辑所在。\n但值得警惕的是，短期利好消息并不意味着形势将出现根本性变化，与此同时，各行业经济活动的复苏也将是循序渐进的过程，正如辉瑞此前在声明中所说，疫苗大规模普及依然要到2021年，这意味着在这之前，经济社会生活仍将受到疫情的显著抑制。\n一份由德意志银行在上个月进行的调查问卷结果显示，投资者认为明年市场的最大风险是疫苗无法控制病毒的蔓延。该结果显示了投资者对于疫苗的作用依然保持谨慎乐观态度。\n从货币政策环境来看，由于经济复苏尚未完全站稳脚跟，许多行业和公司的生存状态依然岌岌可危，美联储大概率在2021年依然将维持宽松货币政策，这在美联储近期的几次发布会上已经对外界有所明确表态，宽松货币政策为市场提供了有效支撑，让投资者有理由继续对未来保持乐观。\n具体到具体板块来看，医药类相关公司无疑将是直接受益者之一，与此同时，前期因为疫情的原因几乎陷入瘫痪的许多行业，例如航空、旅游、消费、娱乐等板块，它们的估值将有望在经济社会生活正常化的预期下得到显著重估，这些板块在中长期的表现值得关注。\n从中长期来看，疫情依然将是主导市场走势的关键因素，尽管辉瑞的新冠疫苗已经获得FDA 通过，但疫情目前在欧美国家依然呈现恶化的局面，美国总确诊病例已经超过千万且仍在以每天十万以上的病例规模增加，此外欧洲国家的疫情也出现了抬头的趋势，疫苗利好消息并不会在短期内改变疫情的发展走向。\n从经济基本面来看，美国经济目前已经显现出明确的复苏迹象，无论是创纪录的三季度GDP数据还是就业人数，都反映了经济在疫情中出现实质性复苏，不难预见的是，随着有效疫苗的普及化，经济仍将出现进一步向好的走势，在疫情期间受到抑制的行业，随着经济生活逐步回归常态化，依然将会得到缓慢复苏，与此同时，对于前期受益于疫情的行业和公司则需要谨慎对待，更多从价值回归的角度思考投资机会，近期Zoom、Netflix等出现大幅下跌行情就已经明确释放了这一信号。\n年轻投资者群体涌入市场缺乏风险意识\n今年市场的火爆也吸引了大量年轻投资者涌入，他们通过Robinhood等新兴券商平台进行交易，凭借着零佣金、操作界面简洁友好、针对移动端进行优化、鼓励期权、保证金等高风险交易等特色，迅速笼络了大批年轻一代投资者群体，他们的模式也冲击着传统券商平台，包括Fidelity、Charles Schwab、eTrade等纷纷先后宣布零佣金，希望能够留住客户并吸引年轻客户。\n一位Robinhood用户对腾讯新闻《潜望》表示，自己从去年开始使用Robinhood平台，已经习惯于其操作界面。在今年3月市场出现暴跌时，Robinhood曾一度因为瞬时用户量过大而导致服务器资源不足系统崩溃，该用户称，当时希望卖出账户中的一只股票，但在Robinhood平台上一直无法成交，让他对于平台的可靠性十分失望，于是下决心选择其他交易平台。\n但在市面上寻找了一圈，尝试了几个后，他发现居然没有一个比Robinhood更好用，例如Fidelity、eTrade等，尽管这些老牌券商平台也纷纷推出了移动交易客户端，但就是操作起来不如纯互联网公司属性的Robinhood顺手，不是成交效率低，就是界面不友好，总之最后，该用户又不得不重新用回Robinhood。\n“我知道Robinhood现在一些小毛病还很多，如果碰到交易量过大时服务器可能崩溃，但比起其他平台来说，还是最好用的。”这位用户无奈地说。\n另外，这一轮新型冠状病毒在全球范围内的蔓延，也客观上推动了越来越多普通投资者加入进来。新冠疫情导致3月份美国股市出现大幅下跌行情，道琼斯工业平均指数多次出现熔断，市场转瞬间从牛市转为熊市，与此同时，由于疫情的原因，许多从校园返回家中的年轻人，找到了新的挥霍旺盛精力的场所 -- 股票市场。\n通过简单注册，他们在短短几分钟就能在Robinhood上开设账户并开始交易，为了鼓励更多用户加入，Robinhood还推出了推荐好友加入就赠送股票或交易现金的活动。\n在今年的一轮股市上涨中，在Robinhood上活跃的一批年轻投资群体，确实赚到了钱，他们乐于在一些投资交易论坛上晒出自己的投资业绩，一夜暴富的神话仿佛就在身边。这些都在刺激着更多的年轻人冒更大的风险，去博取短时间内的高收益。\n在各种因素的影响下，以Robinhood为代表的新兴互联网券商交易平台业务获得了迅速发展。从2016年至今，Robinhood的用户数从100万增长至1000万，其中大多数为缺乏投资经验和风险意识的年轻投资者。目前，Robinhood正在寻求上市，估值已经高达200亿美元。\n对于年轻投资者来说，要追求高收益就需要通过风险更高的保证金交易和期权交易来完成，而对于这些交易，Robinhood平台也提供了几乎无门槛的交易机会。\n根据腾讯新闻《潜望》了解，几乎任何人都可以在Robinhood上进行股票期权交易，Robinhood仅给出了两点提示：在交易期权之前，更新你的投资个人资料，以及你在交易期权之前，需要有股票交易的经验。\nRobinhood称，买入和卖出期权不需要任何手续费，也没有月费，也不需要成为黄金订阅用户，“你的账户立即就支持期权交易”是Robinhood的宣传语。\n此外对于保证金交易，如果投资者想参与，这需要成为Robinhood黄金订阅会员，每月5美元的年费，就可以瞬间开通保证金交易账户，投资者可获得的保证金额度上限与账户资金为1:1，即存入1000元交易金额，就可额外从Robinhood获得1000元，购买力就变为原先的两倍。\n对于保证金交易的风险，Robinhood在支持和帮助页面中，只做了简单描述，并提供了几个例子加以说明，但是对于年轻的蜂拥而入的投资者而言，有几个人会对潜在的投资风险有清晰的认识，着实需要打上问号。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4140,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":397551357,"gmtCreate":1608302155479,"gmtModify":1704974434124,"author":{"id":"3568982060712978","authorId":"3568982060712978","name":"Long4906","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3ba58583b500806b30961083e604e99","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568982060712978","idStr":"3568982060712978"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/397551357","repostId":"1159326672","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1159326672","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1608276272,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1159326672?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2020-12-18 15:24","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"2020 US Stock Market Extreme Model: This is full of overnight riches and panicked bankruptcies.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159326672","media":"腾讯新闻","summary":"2020年，始料未及的新冠疫情席卷全球，人们惊恐、无奈、悲伤、激动，所有这些情绪被潜移默化地在股市中放大，美国股市在今年经历了或许是历史上最为戏剧性的走势，从年初牛市初现，到3月份因疫情而闪崩，随后又","content":"<p>In 2020, the unexpected COVID-19 pandemic swept the globe, causing people to fear, helplessness, sadness, and excitement. All these emotions were subtly amplified in the stock market. The US stock market experienced perhaps the most dramatic trend in history this year, from the initial bull market at the beginning of the year to the flash crash in March due to the pandemic, and then soaring to record highs. In this process, countless dreams about money were born and soared, and countless dreams were shattered.</p><p>Just as people have fallen into an abnormal state of life, the US stock market has also entered an \"abnormal\" mode this year. The progress of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Federal Reserve's unconventionally loose monetary policy have together formed the overall framework of the market's trend. As news of vaccine launches and expectations for the gradual return of economic life to normal gradually take root in people's hearts, whether the market can also return to normal next year is the basic logic that investors should refer to when making specific investment decisions.</p><p><b>U.S. stock market enters \"extreme\" mode in 2020</b></p><p>The U.S. stock market experienced perhaps the most dramatic trend in history in 2020. At the beginning of the year, investors entered the market with optimism, driving the S&P 500 to a record high. However, the unexpected COVID-19 pandemic swept in. Due to the deep spread of panic in the market, from the end of February to March, the market experienced a \"flash crash,\" with the S&P 500 index falling by 1,000 points in one month, a drop of more than 30%, setting a record for the shortest time in history to go from a bull market to a bear market.</p><p>During that darkest month, almost every trading day was thrilling for investors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average even experienced multiple circuit breakers on some trading days, an unprecedented event in history. However, what happened next surprised investors. Starting in early April, the market launched a full-scale counterattack, rising all the way up. In September, it recovered all the ground it had lost this year and set a new historical high. In just six months, the market completed a remarkable counterattack.</p><p>After entering the fourth quarter, the market experienced a downward trend due to the resurgence of the epidemic. However, with the release of positive news about the vaccine, the market continued to rise in November and moved towards a new historical high again. Even taking into account the sharp drop in March, the S&P 500 has still risen 14% this year.</p><p>Looking at the market's trend this year, the COVID-19 pandemic, related news, and monetary and fiscal stimulus measures have comprehensively dominated the market's performance. The decline was most pronounced in March. Subsequently, the Federal Reserve promptly introduced large-scale and unconventional monetary stimulus measures, injecting massive amounts of liquidity into the market and turning the tide. Against the backdrop of the Fed's loose monetary policy, news related to the pandemic caused short-term fluctuations in the market, such as progress in vaccine development, confirmed COVID-19 cases, record-high death tolls, and progress in fiscal stimulus policy negotiations.</p><p>Against the backdrop of an overall market rally, individual stock performance has diverged significantly this year. As the pandemic spread across the board, tourism, entertainment, catering, and aviation sectors suffered direct impacts, resulting in heavy market capitalization losses and many companies teetering on the brink of bankruptcy. Meanwhile, technology stocks, especially those that benefited from the pandemic, such as...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>The stock price surged, becoming the only bright spot in the market during the deep decline.</p><p><b>The fiscal cliff and the exhaustion of the Federal Reserve's stimulus policies are bringing dual pressures.</b></p><p>While the stock market continues to rise, the economic fundamentals have not shown any signs of fundamental improvement, and the prospects for the recovery of the US economy are still dominated by the pandemic.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>A recently released research report warns that if Congress fails to pass a new round of fiscal stimulus, it will have to lower its fourth-quarter growth forecast for the U.S. economy.</p><p>Some economists have also pointed out that recovering from the current stage to the normal level before the pandemic is more difficult, \"recovering to 60-80% is much easier than recovering to 100%.\"</p><p>At the same time, expecting the Federal Reserve to further implement large-scale monetary stimulus policies is becoming increasingly unrealistic. Since the implementation of unprecedented large-scale monetary stimulus policies in March, the Federal Reserve's policy measures have become increasingly stretched. At the same time, excessively rapid and aggressive monetary stimulus measures will also bring some drawbacks in the long run.</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell also conveyed this signal to the market in his recent speech. He stated that more fiscal policy support is needed if the economic recovery is to get back on track in the future. The implication is not to expect the Federal Reserve to introduce further new stimulus measures.</p><p>In terms of policy implementation effects, monetary policy is more effective in the short term, while fiscal policy has a more significant effect on the economy in the medium to long term. Six months after the development of the epidemic, relying on fiscal policy to achieve economic recovery and long-term improvement has become a more rational and natural expectation.</p><p>Judging from market performance, whether the second round of fiscal stimulus package can ultimately be passed will have a significant short-term impact on the market and provide a foundation for long-term economic recovery.</p><p><b>Returning to normalized expectations and wariness: Overly optimistic</b></p><p>A major factor driving market trends in 2021 is the expectation that economic life will return to normal and its impact on specific industries and companies. With the COVID-19 vaccine approved at the end of 2020 and expected to be fully rolled out in the first half of 2021, investors generally expect the pandemic to be effectively controlled, and industries that were previously suppressed by the pandemic are expected to recover.</p><p>Judging from recent market trends, the progress of vaccine research and development and approval is undoubtedly the most important stimulating factor for the market to rise sharply in the short term. If the vaccine is ultimately proven to be able to effectively suppress the epidemic, it will mean that the epidemic that has affected the normal operation of the whole society for nearly a year is expected to end, and economic activities are expected to recover to pre-epidemic levels. This is also the fundamental logic behind the market rise.</p><p>However, it is worth noting that short-term positive news does not necessarily mean a fundamental change in the situation. At the same time, the recovery of economic activity in various industries will be a gradual process, just as...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>As previously stated in the statement, the large-scale popularization of vaccines will not be until 2021, which means that before then, economic and social life will still be significantly suppressed by the epidemic.</p><p>A document by<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>The results of a survey conducted last month showed that investors believe the biggest risk to the market next year is that vaccines cannot control the spread of the virus. The results show that investors remain cautiously optimistic about the role of vaccines.</p><p>From the perspective of the monetary policy environment, as the economic recovery has not yet fully taken hold, the survival of many industries and companies remains precarious. The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain its loose monetary policy in 2021. This has been clearly stated to the outside world in several recent press conferences by the Federal Reserve. The loose monetary policy has provided effective support for the market and given investors reason to remain optimistic about the future.</p><p>Specifically, pharmaceutical-related companies will undoubtedly be among the direct beneficiaries. At the same time, many industries that were almost paralyzed due to the pandemic, such as aviation, tourism, consumption, and entertainment, are expected to see their valuations significantly revalued in anticipation of the normalization of economic and social life. The medium- to long-term performance of these sectors is worth paying attention to.</p><p>In the medium to long term, the pandemic will remain a key factor driving market trends. Although Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine has been approved by the FDA, the pandemic is still worsening in European and American countries. The total number of confirmed cases in the United States has exceeded 10 million and is still increasing at a rate of more than 100,000 cases per day. In addition, the pandemic in European countries has also shown an upward trend, and positive news about the vaccine will not change the development trend of the pandemic in the short term.</p><p>From an economic fundamental perspective, the US economy is already showing clear signs of recovery. Both the record-breaking third-quarter GDP data and employment figures reflect a substantial economic recovery during the pandemic. It is not difficult to foresee that with the widespread availability of effective vaccines, the economy will continue to show a further positive trend. Industries that were suppressed during the pandemic will still experience a slow recovery as economic life gradually returns to normal. At the same time, industries and companies that previously benefited from the pandemic need to be treated with caution and investment opportunities should be considered more from the perspective of value return. The recent sharp declines in stocks such as Zoom and Netflix have clearly released this signal.</p><p><b>Young investors flocking to the market lack risk awareness</b></p><p>This year's market boom has also attracted a large influx of young investors. They trade through emerging brokerage platforms such as Robinhood. With their features such as zero commissions, simple and user-friendly interface, optimization for mobile devices, and encouragement of high-risk trading such as options and margin, they have quickly attracted a large number of young investors. Their model is also impacting traditional brokerage platforms. Fidelity, Charles Schwab, eTrade and others have successively announced zero commissions in hopes of retaining customers and attracting young customers.</p><p>A Robinhood user<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>The news outlet \"Deep View\" stated that it has been using the Robinhood platform since last year and has become accustomed to its interface. During the market crash in March of this year, Robinhood experienced a system crash due to insufficient server resources due to an excessive number of instantaneous users. The user said that he wanted to sell a stock in his account, but the transaction could not be completed on the Robinhood platform, which made him very disappointed with the platform's reliability. So he decided to choose another trading platform.</p><p>However, after searching the market and trying several, he found that none of them were better than Robinhood, such as Fidelity and eTrade. Although these established brokerage platforms have launched mobile trading clients, they are not as easy to operate as Robinhood, which is a pure internet company. Either the transaction efficiency is low or the interface is unfriendly. In the end, the user had to go back to Robinhood.</p><p>\"I know Robinhood still has a lot of minor issues, and the server might crash if the transaction volume is too high, but it's still the best platform to use compared to other platforms,\" the user said helplessly.</p><p>In addition, the global spread of the novel coronavirus has objectively prompted more and more ordinary investors to join in. The COVID-19 pandemic led to a sharp decline in the U.S. stock market in March, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average experiencing multiple circuit breakers. The market quickly turned from a bull market to a bear market. At the same time, due to the pandemic, many young people returning home from school found a new place to squander their energy – the stock market.</p><p>With a simple registration, they can open an account on Robinhood and start trading in just a few minutes. To encourage more users to join, Robinhood has also launched a campaign to give away stocks or trading cash for referring friends to join.</p><p>During this year's stock market rally, a group of young investors active on Robinhood have indeed made money. They are happy to share their investment performance on some investment trading forums, and the myth of getting rich overnight seems to be all around them. These factors are encouraging more young people to take greater risks in order to achieve high returns in a short period of time.</p><p>Under the influence of various factors, the business of emerging internet brokerage trading platforms, represented by Robinhood, has developed rapidly. Since 2016, Robinhood's user base has grown from 1 million to 10 million, most of whom are young investors who lack investment experience and risk awareness. Currently, Robinhood is seeking an IPO, and its valuation has reached $20 billion.</p><p>For young investors, pursuing high returns requires higher-risk margin trading and options trading, and the Robinhood platform offers almost barrier-free trading opportunities for these transactions.</p><p>According to Tencent News' \"Perspective,\" almost anyone can trade stock options on Robinhood. Robinhood only provides two tips: update your investment profile before trading options, and you need to have stock trading experience before trading options.</p><p>Robinhood claims that there are no transaction fees, no monthly fees, and no need to become a Gold subscriber to buy and sell options. \"Your account supports options trading immediately\" is Robinhood's slogan.</p><p>In addition, for margin trading, if investors want to participate, they need to become a Robinhood Gold subscription member. For an annual fee of $5 per month, they can instantly open a margin trading account. The maximum margin amount that investors can receive is 1:1 to the account funds. That is, if they deposit 1,000 yuan in trading amount, they can receive an additional 1,000 yuan from Robinhood, and their purchasing power will double.</p><p>Regarding the risks of margin trading, Robinhood only provides a brief description and a few examples on its support and help page. However, for young investors flocking in, it is questionable how many people have a clear understanding of the potential investment risks.</p>","source":"lsy1596081546069","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2020 US Stock Market Extreme Model: This is full of overnight riches and panicked bankruptcies.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2020 US Stock Market Extreme Model: This is full of overnight riches and panicked bankruptcies.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">腾讯新闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2020-12-18 15:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In 2020, the unexpected COVID-19 pandemic swept the globe, causing people to fear, helplessness, sadness, and excitement. All these emotions were subtly amplified in the stock market. The US stock market experienced perhaps the most dramatic trend in history this year, from the initial bull market at the beginning of the year to the flash crash in March due to the pandemic, and then soaring to record highs. In this process, countless dreams about money were born and soared, and countless dreams were shattered.</p><p>Just as people have fallen into an abnormal state of life, the US stock market has also entered an \"abnormal\" mode this year. The progress of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Federal Reserve's unconventionally loose monetary policy have together formed the overall framework of the market's trend. As news of vaccine launches and expectations for the gradual return of economic life to normal gradually take root in people's hearts, whether the market can also return to normal next year is the basic logic that investors should refer to when making specific investment decisions.</p><p><b>U.S. stock market enters \"extreme\" mode in 2020</b></p><p>The U.S. stock market experienced perhaps the most dramatic trend in history in 2020. At the beginning of the year, investors entered the market with optimism, driving the S&P 500 to a record high. However, the unexpected COVID-19 pandemic swept in. Due to the deep spread of panic in the market, from the end of February to March, the market experienced a \"flash crash,\" with the S&P 500 index falling by 1,000 points in one month, a drop of more than 30%, setting a record for the shortest time in history to go from a bull market to a bear market.</p><p>During that darkest month, almost every trading day was thrilling for investors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average even experienced multiple circuit breakers on some trading days, an unprecedented event in history. However, what happened next surprised investors. Starting in early April, the market launched a full-scale counterattack, rising all the way up. In September, it recovered all the ground it had lost this year and set a new historical high. In just six months, the market completed a remarkable counterattack.</p><p>After entering the fourth quarter, the market experienced a downward trend due to the resurgence of the epidemic. However, with the release of positive news about the vaccine, the market continued to rise in November and moved towards a new historical high again. Even taking into account the sharp drop in March, the S&P 500 has still risen 14% this year.</p><p>Looking at the market's trend this year, the COVID-19 pandemic, related news, and monetary and fiscal stimulus measures have comprehensively dominated the market's performance. The decline was most pronounced in March. Subsequently, the Federal Reserve promptly introduced large-scale and unconventional monetary stimulus measures, injecting massive amounts of liquidity into the market and turning the tide. Against the backdrop of the Fed's loose monetary policy, news related to the pandemic caused short-term fluctuations in the market, such as progress in vaccine development, confirmed COVID-19 cases, record-high death tolls, and progress in fiscal stimulus policy negotiations.</p><p>Against the backdrop of an overall market rally, individual stock performance has diverged significantly this year. As the pandemic spread across the board, tourism, entertainment, catering, and aviation sectors suffered direct impacts, resulting in heavy market capitalization losses and many companies teetering on the brink of bankruptcy. Meanwhile, technology stocks, especially those that benefited from the pandemic, such as...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>The stock price surged, becoming the only bright spot in the market during the deep decline.</p><p><b>The fiscal cliff and the exhaustion of the Federal Reserve's stimulus policies are bringing dual pressures.</b></p><p>While the stock market continues to rise, the economic fundamentals have not shown any signs of fundamental improvement, and the prospects for the recovery of the US economy are still dominated by the pandemic.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>A recently released research report warns that if Congress fails to pass a new round of fiscal stimulus, it will have to lower its fourth-quarter growth forecast for the U.S. economy.</p><p>Some economists have also pointed out that recovering from the current stage to the normal level before the pandemic is more difficult, \"recovering to 60-80% is much easier than recovering to 100%.\"</p><p>At the same time, expecting the Federal Reserve to further implement large-scale monetary stimulus policies is becoming increasingly unrealistic. Since the implementation of unprecedented large-scale monetary stimulus policies in March, the Federal Reserve's policy measures have become increasingly stretched. At the same time, excessively rapid and aggressive monetary stimulus measures will also bring some drawbacks in the long run.</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell also conveyed this signal to the market in his recent speech. He stated that more fiscal policy support is needed if the economic recovery is to get back on track in the future. The implication is not to expect the Federal Reserve to introduce further new stimulus measures.</p><p>In terms of policy implementation effects, monetary policy is more effective in the short term, while fiscal policy has a more significant effect on the economy in the medium to long term. Six months after the development of the epidemic, relying on fiscal policy to achieve economic recovery and long-term improvement has become a more rational and natural expectation.</p><p>Judging from market performance, whether the second round of fiscal stimulus package can ultimately be passed will have a significant short-term impact on the market and provide a foundation for long-term economic recovery.</p><p><b>Returning to normalized expectations and wariness: Overly optimistic</b></p><p>A major factor driving market trends in 2021 is the expectation that economic life will return to normal and its impact on specific industries and companies. With the COVID-19 vaccine approved at the end of 2020 and expected to be fully rolled out in the first half of 2021, investors generally expect the pandemic to be effectively controlled, and industries that were previously suppressed by the pandemic are expected to recover.</p><p>Judging from recent market trends, the progress of vaccine research and development and approval is undoubtedly the most important stimulating factor for the market to rise sharply in the short term. If the vaccine is ultimately proven to be able to effectively suppress the epidemic, it will mean that the epidemic that has affected the normal operation of the whole society for nearly a year is expected to end, and economic activities are expected to recover to pre-epidemic levels. This is also the fundamental logic behind the market rise.</p><p>However, it is worth noting that short-term positive news does not necessarily mean a fundamental change in the situation. At the same time, the recovery of economic activity in various industries will be a gradual process, just as...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>As previously stated in the statement, the large-scale popularization of vaccines will not be until 2021, which means that before then, economic and social life will still be significantly suppressed by the epidemic.</p><p>A document by<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>The results of a survey conducted last month showed that investors believe the biggest risk to the market next year is that vaccines cannot control the spread of the virus. The results show that investors remain cautiously optimistic about the role of vaccines.</p><p>From the perspective of the monetary policy environment, as the economic recovery has not yet fully taken hold, the survival of many industries and companies remains precarious. The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain its loose monetary policy in 2021. This has been clearly stated to the outside world in several recent press conferences by the Federal Reserve. The loose monetary policy has provided effective support for the market and given investors reason to remain optimistic about the future.</p><p>Specifically, pharmaceutical-related companies will undoubtedly be among the direct beneficiaries. At the same time, many industries that were almost paralyzed due to the pandemic, such as aviation, tourism, consumption, and entertainment, are expected to see their valuations significantly revalued in anticipation of the normalization of economic and social life. The medium- to long-term performance of these sectors is worth paying attention to.</p><p>In the medium to long term, the pandemic will remain a key factor driving market trends. Although Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine has been approved by the FDA, the pandemic is still worsening in European and American countries. The total number of confirmed cases in the United States has exceeded 10 million and is still increasing at a rate of more than 100,000 cases per day. In addition, the pandemic in European countries has also shown an upward trend, and positive news about the vaccine will not change the development trend of the pandemic in the short term.</p><p>From an economic fundamental perspective, the US economy is already showing clear signs of recovery. Both the record-breaking third-quarter GDP data and employment figures reflect a substantial economic recovery during the pandemic. It is not difficult to foresee that with the widespread availability of effective vaccines, the economy will continue to show a further positive trend. Industries that were suppressed during the pandemic will still experience a slow recovery as economic life gradually returns to normal. At the same time, industries and companies that previously benefited from the pandemic need to be treated with caution and investment opportunities should be considered more from the perspective of value return. The recent sharp declines in stocks such as Zoom and Netflix have clearly released this signal.</p><p><b>Young investors flocking to the market lack risk awareness</b></p><p>This year's market boom has also attracted a large influx of young investors. They trade through emerging brokerage platforms such as Robinhood. With their features such as zero commissions, simple and user-friendly interface, optimization for mobile devices, and encouragement of high-risk trading such as options and margin, they have quickly attracted a large number of young investors. Their model is also impacting traditional brokerage platforms. Fidelity, Charles Schwab, eTrade and others have successively announced zero commissions in hopes of retaining customers and attracting young customers.</p><p>A Robinhood user<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>The news outlet \"Deep View\" stated that it has been using the Robinhood platform since last year and has become accustomed to its interface. During the market crash in March of this year, Robinhood experienced a system crash due to insufficient server resources due to an excessive number of instantaneous users. The user said that he wanted to sell a stock in his account, but the transaction could not be completed on the Robinhood platform, which made him very disappointed with the platform's reliability. So he decided to choose another trading platform.</p><p>However, after searching the market and trying several, he found that none of them were better than Robinhood, such as Fidelity and eTrade. Although these established brokerage platforms have launched mobile trading clients, they are not as easy to operate as Robinhood, which is a pure internet company. Either the transaction efficiency is low or the interface is unfriendly. In the end, the user had to go back to Robinhood.</p><p>\"I know Robinhood still has a lot of minor issues, and the server might crash if the transaction volume is too high, but it's still the best platform to use compared to other platforms,\" the user said helplessly.</p><p>In addition, the global spread of the novel coronavirus has objectively prompted more and more ordinary investors to join in. The COVID-19 pandemic led to a sharp decline in the U.S. stock market in March, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average experiencing multiple circuit breakers. The market quickly turned from a bull market to a bear market. At the same time, due to the pandemic, many young people returning home from school found a new place to squander their energy – the stock market.</p><p>With a simple registration, they can open an account on Robinhood and start trading in just a few minutes. To encourage more users to join, Robinhood has also launched a campaign to give away stocks or trading cash for referring friends to join.</p><p>During this year's stock market rally, a group of young investors active on Robinhood have indeed made money. They are happy to share their investment performance on some investment trading forums, and the myth of getting rich overnight seems to be all around them. These factors are encouraging more young people to take greater risks in order to achieve high returns in a short period of time.</p><p>Under the influence of various factors, the business of emerging internet brokerage trading platforms, represented by Robinhood, has developed rapidly. Since 2016, Robinhood's user base has grown from 1 million to 10 million, most of whom are young investors who lack investment experience and risk awareness. Currently, Robinhood is seeking an IPO, and its valuation has reached $20 billion.</p><p>For young investors, pursuing high returns requires higher-risk margin trading and options trading, and the Robinhood platform offers almost barrier-free trading opportunities for these transactions.</p><p>According to Tencent News' \"Perspective,\" almost anyone can trade stock options on Robinhood. Robinhood only provides two tips: update your investment profile before trading options, and you need to have stock trading experience before trading options.</p><p>Robinhood claims that there are no transaction fees, no monthly fees, and no need to become a Gold subscriber to buy and sell options. \"Your account supports options trading immediately\" is Robinhood's slogan.</p><p>In addition, for margin trading, if investors want to participate, they need to become a Robinhood Gold subscription member. For an annual fee of $5 per month, they can instantly open a margin trading account. The maximum margin amount that investors can receive is 1:1 to the account funds. That is, if they deposit 1,000 yuan in trading amount, they can receive an additional 1,000 yuan from Robinhood, and their purchasing power will double.</p><p>Regarding the risks of margin trading, Robinhood only provides a brief description and a few examples on its support and help page. However, for young investors flocking in, it is questionable how many people have a clear understanding of the potential investment risks.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://new.qq.com/omn/20201218/20201218A01XV800.html\">腾讯新闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b3b5e72649367d0aafd9bcbbca9bcd1","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://new.qq.com/omn/20201218/20201218A01XV800.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159326672","content_text":"2020年，始料未及的新冠疫情席卷全球，人们惊恐、无奈、悲伤、激动，所有这些情绪被潜移默化地在股市中放大，美国股市在今年经历了或许是历史上最为戏剧性的走势，从年初牛市初现，到3月份因疫情而闪崩，随后又一路高歌猛进创下历史新高，在这其中，无数关于金钱的美梦孕育、升腾，又有无数的美梦破灭。\n与人们陷入非正常生活状态一样，美国股市今年也进入了“非正常”模式，新冠疫情的进展和美联储超常规的宽松货币政策，共同形成了市场整体走势的大框架，随着疫苗上市的消息和经济生活逐步回归正常的期待逐渐深入人心，明年市场是否也能够回归常态化，是投资者在进行具体投资决策时，所要参考的基本逻辑。\n2020年美国股市进入“极端”模式\n美国股市在2020年经历了可能是史上最为戏剧性的走势，年初，投资者们带着乐观的情绪进入市场，推动标普500指数创下历史新高，然而始料未及的新冠疫情席卷而来，由于恐慌情绪在市场中的深度蔓延，从2月底至3月，市场经历了“闪崩”，标普500指数一个月的时间内滑落千点，跌幅超过30%，创下历史上由牛市进入熊市的最短时间纪录。\n在那最黑暗的一个月内，几乎每一个交易日都让投资者惊心动魄，道指甚至在某些交易日内出现多次熔断，历史上前所未见，但接下来发生的事又让投资者颇为意外，从4月初开始，市场进入全面反攻，一路上扬，并在9月份收复今年以来全部失地，并再度创下历史新高，用了半年的时间，市场完成了绝地大反击。\n进入第四季度后，由于疫情重新抬头，市场一度出现震荡下行走势，但随着疫苗的利好消息出炉，市场在进入11月份以后继续重拾升势，再度朝着历史新高迈进。今年以来，即便考虑进3月份大跌因素，标普500指数依然出现了14%的涨幅。\n从市场今年以来走势来看，新冠疫情以及围绕疫情相关的消息及货币、财政刺激手段，全面主导了市场的走势。3月份的一轮下跌表现得最为显著，随后，美联储及时出台大规模超常规货币刺激措施，向市场注入天量流动性，起到了力挽狂澜的作用，在美联储宽松货币政策背景下，与疫情相关的消息又对市场造成了短期波动因素，例如疫苗研发进展、新冠确诊、死亡人数创新高、财政刺激政策谈判进展等。\n在市场整体走高的背景下，个股走势在今年也出现明显分化，在疫情全面蔓延之际，旅游、娱乐、餐饮、航空等遭受直接冲击，市值损失惨重，许多公司濒临破产边缘，与此同时，科技类股，尤其是因疫情受益的个股，如亚马逊、Zoom等股价则突飞猛进，成为了市场在深度下跌阶段中唯一的亮点。\n财政悬崖、美联储刺激政策耗尽带来双重压力\n在股市不断走高的同时，经济基本面则并没有出现根本性好转的迹象，美国经济的复苏前景依然受疫情因素的主导。\n高盛近日发布的研究报告警告称，如果国会无法通过新一轮财政刺激手段，将不得不下调美国经济第四季度的增长预期。\n有经济学家也指出，从目前阶段复苏到疫情前的正常水平更加艰难，“复苏至60-80%要比恢复至100%容易得多。”\n与此同时，指望美联储进一步实施大规模货币刺激政策越来越成为一种奢望，自3月份实施史无前例的大规模货币刺激政策措施后，美联储的政策手段越来越捉襟见肘，同时，过快过猛的货币刺激手段，在长期也将带来一些弊端。\n美联储主席鲍威尔近日讲话中也向市场传达了这一信号。他表示，未来如果希望经济复苏走向正轨，需要更多财政政策的支持。言下之意，不要指望美联储进一步推出新的刺激措施。\n从政策实施效果上来看，货币政策更多地在短期起作用，而财政政策则是在中长期对于经济的作用效果更为显著，在疫情发展半年后，依靠财政政策实现经济的复苏和长期向好成为了一种更为理性自然的预期。\n从市场的表现来看，第二轮财政刺激方案最终能否获得通过，将对市场产生短期显著影响，也将为长期经济复苏提供基础。\n回归常态化的期许和警惕过度乐观\n对于2021年，主导市场走势的一大背景是对于经济生活回归常态化的预期以及对具体行业和公司的影响。由于新冠疫苗在2020年底获批并预计在2021年上半年全面普及，投资者普遍预期疫情将得到有效控制，前期受到疫情抑制的行业将有望复苏。\n从近期市场走势来看，疫苗的研发和获批上市进展无疑是目前刺激市场短期内大幅走高的最重要刺激因素，如果疫苗最终证实能够有效抑制疫情，将意味着影响整个社会正常运转将近一年的疫情将有望终结，经济活动有望恢复到疫情之前，这也是助推市场上涨的根本逻辑所在。\n但值得警惕的是，短期利好消息并不意味着形势将出现根本性变化，与此同时，各行业经济活动的复苏也将是循序渐进的过程，正如辉瑞此前在声明中所说，疫苗大规模普及依然要到2021年，这意味着在这之前，经济社会生活仍将受到疫情的显著抑制。\n一份由德意志银行在上个月进行的调查问卷结果显示，投资者认为明年市场的最大风险是疫苗无法控制病毒的蔓延。该结果显示了投资者对于疫苗的作用依然保持谨慎乐观态度。\n从货币政策环境来看，由于经济复苏尚未完全站稳脚跟，许多行业和公司的生存状态依然岌岌可危，美联储大概率在2021年依然将维持宽松货币政策，这在美联储近期的几次发布会上已经对外界有所明确表态，宽松货币政策为市场提供了有效支撑，让投资者有理由继续对未来保持乐观。\n具体到具体板块来看，医药类相关公司无疑将是直接受益者之一，与此同时，前期因为疫情的原因几乎陷入瘫痪的许多行业，例如航空、旅游、消费、娱乐等板块，它们的估值将有望在经济社会生活正常化的预期下得到显著重估，这些板块在中长期的表现值得关注。\n从中长期来看，疫情依然将是主导市场走势的关键因素，尽管辉瑞的新冠疫苗已经获得FDA 通过，但疫情目前在欧美国家依然呈现恶化的局面，美国总确诊病例已经超过千万且仍在以每天十万以上的病例规模增加，此外欧洲国家的疫情也出现了抬头的趋势，疫苗利好消息并不会在短期内改变疫情的发展走向。\n从经济基本面来看，美国经济目前已经显现出明确的复苏迹象，无论是创纪录的三季度GDP数据还是就业人数，都反映了经济在疫情中出现实质性复苏，不难预见的是，随着有效疫苗的普及化，经济仍将出现进一步向好的走势，在疫情期间受到抑制的行业，随着经济生活逐步回归常态化，依然将会得到缓慢复苏，与此同时，对于前期受益于疫情的行业和公司则需要谨慎对待，更多从价值回归的角度思考投资机会，近期Zoom、Netflix等出现大幅下跌行情就已经明确释放了这一信号。\n年轻投资者群体涌入市场缺乏风险意识\n今年市场的火爆也吸引了大量年轻投资者涌入，他们通过Robinhood等新兴券商平台进行交易，凭借着零佣金、操作界面简洁友好、针对移动端进行优化、鼓励期权、保证金等高风险交易等特色，迅速笼络了大批年轻一代投资者群体，他们的模式也冲击着传统券商平台，包括Fidelity、Charles Schwab、eTrade等纷纷先后宣布零佣金，希望能够留住客户并吸引年轻客户。\n一位Robinhood用户对腾讯新闻《潜望》表示，自己从去年开始使用Robinhood平台，已经习惯于其操作界面。在今年3月市场出现暴跌时，Robinhood曾一度因为瞬时用户量过大而导致服务器资源不足系统崩溃，该用户称，当时希望卖出账户中的一只股票，但在Robinhood平台上一直无法成交，让他对于平台的可靠性十分失望，于是下决心选择其他交易平台。\n但在市面上寻找了一圈，尝试了几个后，他发现居然没有一个比Robinhood更好用，例如Fidelity、eTrade等，尽管这些老牌券商平台也纷纷推出了移动交易客户端，但就是操作起来不如纯互联网公司属性的Robinhood顺手，不是成交效率低，就是界面不友好，总之最后，该用户又不得不重新用回Robinhood。\n“我知道Robinhood现在一些小毛病还很多，如果碰到交易量过大时服务器可能崩溃，但比起其他平台来说，还是最好用的。”这位用户无奈地说。\n另外，这一轮新型冠状病毒在全球范围内的蔓延，也客观上推动了越来越多普通投资者加入进来。新冠疫情导致3月份美国股市出现大幅下跌行情，道琼斯工业平均指数多次出现熔断，市场转瞬间从牛市转为熊市，与此同时，由于疫情的原因，许多从校园返回家中的年轻人，找到了新的挥霍旺盛精力的场所 -- 股票市场。\n通过简单注册，他们在短短几分钟就能在Robinhood上开设账户并开始交易，为了鼓励更多用户加入，Robinhood还推出了推荐好友加入就赠送股票或交易现金的活动。\n在今年的一轮股市上涨中，在Robinhood上活跃的一批年轻投资群体，确实赚到了钱，他们乐于在一些投资交易论坛上晒出自己的投资业绩，一夜暴富的神话仿佛就在身边。这些都在刺激着更多的年轻人冒更大的风险，去博取短时间内的高收益。\n在各种因素的影响下，以Robinhood为代表的新兴互联网券商交易平台业务获得了迅速发展。从2016年至今，Robinhood的用户数从100万增长至1000万，其中大多数为缺乏投资经验和风险意识的年轻投资者。目前，Robinhood正在寻求上市，估值已经高达200亿美元。\n对于年轻投资者来说，要追求高收益就需要通过风险更高的保证金交易和期权交易来完成，而对于这些交易，Robinhood平台也提供了几乎无门槛的交易机会。\n根据腾讯新闻《潜望》了解，几乎任何人都可以在Robinhood上进行股票期权交易，Robinhood仅给出了两点提示：在交易期权之前，更新你的投资个人资料，以及你在交易期权之前，需要有股票交易的经验。\nRobinhood称，买入和卖出期权不需要任何手续费，也没有月费，也不需要成为黄金订阅用户，“你的账户立即就支持期权交易”是Robinhood的宣传语。\n此外对于保证金交易，如果投资者想参与，这需要成为Robinhood黄金订阅会员，每月5美元的年费，就可以瞬间开通保证金交易账户，投资者可获得的保证金额度上限与账户资金为1:1，即存入1000元交易金额，就可额外从Robinhood获得1000元，购买力就变为原先的两倍。\n对于保证金交易的风险，Robinhood在支持和帮助页面中，只做了简单描述，并提供了几个例子加以说明，但是对于年轻的蜂拥而入的投资者而言，有几个人会对潜在的投资风险有清晰的认识，着实需要打上问号。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3988,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":394505456,"gmtCreate":1608046530075,"gmtModify":1704973029264,"author":{"id":"3568982060712978","authorId":"3568982060712978","name":"Long4906","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3ba58583b500806b30961083e604e99","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568982060712978","idStr":"3568982060712978"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[666]&nbsp;","listText":"[666]&nbsp;","text":"[666]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/394505456","repostId":"2091840728","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4089,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":true}