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- 林九九林九九
  ·2021-06-28
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  Resilience and resistance in recovery
  复苏中的韧性与阻力 5月经济数据呈现五大特征：一是生产保持平稳、需求边际弱化，产出缺口收敛；二是需求结构趋向内外平衡、顺周期力量缓慢改善。以两年复合增速看，5月出口与地产增速边际下滑、消费和制造业投资
  Resilience and resistance in recovery
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However, the recent epidemic in Guangdong further disrupted consumption during the Dragon Boat Festival, resulting in poor performance.<b>Fourth, the PPI-CPI scissors gap has reached a new high.</b>However, the PPI peak may have already occurred;<b>Fifth, the characteristics of localized credit contraction are obvious.</b>The manufacturing sector has good financing availability, while financing conditions for local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) and real estate are tight, and government financing is beginning to accelerate.</p><p><b>At the meso level:</b>With the acceleration of domestic vaccination, production and investment in the pharmaceutical industry have maintained high prosperity; Due to the chip shortage, both production, sales, and capital expenditures in the automotive industry have declined; Demand in the midstream equipment industry is strong both domestically and internationally, but profit margins remain under pressure. Boosted by Labor Day, social economy consumption accelerated across the board; Driven by the wave of completions, post-real estate cycle consumption has improved significantly.</p><p><b>The combination for the first half of the year is economic recovery, rising inflation, stable monetary policy, tight fiscal policy, and localized credit contraction. The combination for the second half of the year is expected to be a slowdown in economic momentum, convergence in PPI and CPI, stable monetary policy, some fiscal action, and easing of credit conditions.</b>The economy improved overall in April and May compared to the first quarter, with exports and real estate remaining the main drivers. However, the recent peak in household credit growth and the decline in export orders may have indicated a turning point, and the speed of the decline in the second half of the year will be key. Consumption and manufacturing are gradually recovering, but they are relatively lacking in elasticity. Fiscal efforts are still needed in the second half of the year, and the economy relies on infrastructure to support it. After the PPI peaked at an accelerated pace in the second quarter, inflation anxieties are expected to ease in the second half of the year. However, with weak domestic demand and a slowdown in social financing growth, monetary policy is not expected to tighten and credit conditions are expected to be relaxed.</p><p><b>In the short term, due to multiple disturbances such as the recurring domestic epidemic, chip shortages in industries such as automobiles, cost pressures in midstream and downstream sectors, and safe production before July 1st, the economic performance in June may be poor.</b>In the medium term, besides the decline in real estate and exports, the downside risks to the economy are twofold: firstly, if the sustainability of large-scale price increases exceeds expectations, it may lead to a \"stagflation-like\" economy, while policies face a dilemma. Secondly, regarding the design and implementation of carbon reduction policies, if steel and other production are forcibly reduced within the year, it will have an adverse impact on inflation, production, and investment. Third, the uncertainty of Sino-US relations; Fourth, the Federal Reserve will shift its pace earlier than expected, and domestic monetary policy will face external pressure at that time; Fifth, the mutated novel coronavirus will be separated from existing vaccine protection, which will negatively affect the global recovery prospects and entrepreneurs' investment confidence. And<b>Upside risk</b>The main reason is that fiscal support and overseas inventory replenishment exceeded expectations, bringing infrastructure flexibility and export resilience.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/911e11f22330eab379da386447fbb53c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Production: Upstream decline, midstream strength, downstream divergence</b></p><p><b>In May this year, industrial added value increased by 8.8% year-on-year, with a two-year compound annual growth rate of 6.6%, a slight decrease from 6.8% in April. After seasonal adjustment, it increased by 0.52% month-on-month, the same as in April, showing a relatively stable performance.</b>Structurally, the supply-side industry characteristics in May did not change significantly compared to April.<b>Overall, the situation is characterized by a decline in the upstream sector, strength in the midstream, and divergence in the downstream sector:</b></p><p><b>Upstream industry decline: Upstream industry performance remained basically stable, with only slight changes within a narrow range compared to April, but it has significantly declined compared to the small production peak from the second half of last year to March this year.</b>Although environmental protection production restrictions have been marginally eased, they are difficult to reverse. Real estate investment remains resilient, commodity prices are fluctuating at high levels, and the internal and external environment facing upstream industries has not changed significantly. In terms of output, the average year-on-year growth rate of power generation over the past two years increased slightly from 5.5% in the previous month to 6.1%. The two-year average growth rate of raw coal, steel, non-ferrous metals and cement production decreased slightly compared with the previous month, while the two-year compound annual growth rate of ethylene production increased slightly.</p><p><b>Strong performance in the midstream sector: In terms of midstream equipment industries, production in general equipment, special equipment, instruments and meters, and electrical machinery declined slightly compared to April, but remained at the leading level among all industries, which is consistent with the trend of rising investment in the manufacturing sector. automobile manufacturing industry</b>The two-year average growth rate of added value narrowed slightly compared to April, the impact of chip shortages remains severe, and the supply-side impact persists. In terms of output, metal cutting machine tools, industrial<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>The output growth rate of midstream equipment products such as AC motors remained high, while the output growth rate of automobiles was relatively limited.</p><p><b>Downstream divergence: The structural performance of downstream industries was basically the same as last month, with electromechanical products maintaining strength supported by exports.</b>It was basically the same as the previous month;<b>Vaccine manufacturing drives the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry</b>The two-year average growth rate of added value reached 16.9%, the most prosperous among all manufacturing sectors;<b>Textile-related textile, apparel and leather goods industries</b>Their performance remained weak. In terms of production, the production of integrated circuits and electronic computers declined from a high level, while the growth rate of mobile phone production remained low.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2760a1b57f14d13091466d21f8ab4b4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1078\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/030c04e1212510e532392d9b22cc409d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>In terms of industrial production, the total growth rate and structure in May were basically the same as the previous month.</b>We believe that the rise in raw material prices on the supply side has shown signs of peaking but has not yet reversed. Environmental protection production restrictions have been marginally relaxed but will not be reversed. After my country's industrial production has passed its peak, the total volume and structure are not expected to fluctuate too much in the short term. The strength of the export chain, midstream equipment, and pharmaceutical manufacturing industries may be maintained in the short term.<b>However, it is important to note that the safety production policies implemented before July 1st may have a negative impact on the production side, especially the construction industry chain and chemical industries.</b>In the medium term, the impact of supply chain shortages is expected to continue into the third quarter, the export chain may weaken by the end of the year, and consumption recovery may fall short of expectations, which is expected to have a negative impact on production. Industrial production will face more negative factors in the medium term.</p><p><b>In the service sector, boosted by Labor Day in May, the consumer services industry showed a positive recovery momentum.</b>According to the May service sector PMI data, the PMI for travel-related industries such as accommodation, railway and air transport has been above 65% for two consecutive months, while the PMI for consumer-related industries such as retail, catering and entertainment has been above 58%, reflecting the positive recovery momentum of the consumer services industry. The positive factors for the subsequent recovery of the service industry are the steady progress of vaccination and revenue growth, and the recovery of the consumer services industry is expected to continue. However, just like the bottlenecks facing consumption, it is difficult for residents' income growth and consumption propensity to quickly return to pre-pandemic levels, and the recovery of service sector production is also limited. Fluctuations in service sector production growth near a new central level lower than before the pandemic may become the norm. In addition, the recent localized resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic in China has dragged down the consumer services industry to some extent.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9e5a9b12c2284bd64603c6a1ec8cafc\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"553\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>External demand: Month-on-month momentum weakened.</b></p><p><b>In May this year, both the year-on-year growth rates of imports and exports maintained strong resilience.</b>Regarding exports, according to the General Administration of Customs, the export value (in US dollars) in May increased by 27.8% year-on-year (32.3% in the previous month), with a two-year compound annual growth rate of 11.1%. Although it is lower than the 16.8% in April, it is still in the high prosperity range since the second half of last year. In terms of imports, imports in May increased by 51.1% year-on-year (43.1% in the previous month), with a two-year compound annual growth rate of 12.4%, a slight increase from the previous month's 10.7%. The high level of imports reflects, on the one hand, the boom in domestic production and the appreciation of the RMB in terms of volume, and on the other hand, the impact of rising global raw material prices in terms of price. The trade surplus in May was $45.54 billion, up slightly from $42.86 billion the previous month.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c3d18e6d594319752d7c3377f7ab3a2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>However, judging from the month-on-month growth rate, the month-on-month momentum of exports in May has weakened.</b>Looking at the month-on-month growth rate of exports over the years, the export level in May is often higher than that in April, which shows that the month-on-month growth rate of exports in May is mostly positive. However, the export level in May this year was basically the same as in April, with a month-on-month growth rate of zero, which is lower than the seasonal performance in previous years. In addition,<b>The PMI for new export orders also fell below the boom-bust line, indicating that my country's export momentum is weakening month-on-month.</b>Specifically, the weakening marginal momentum of exports may be related to the following reasons: First, excessively high production costs and freight rates are compressing profit margins and suppressing enterprises' willingness to take orders; Second, supply bottlenecks in some industrial chains have affected global production activities; Third, the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate affects export competitiveness; Fourth, the epidemic situation in Europe and the United States has stabilized recently, production has recovered, and some orders have<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b2b52ca28c617ecdd633bcd52be0cca\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"409\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>In terms of export commodities, the two-year average growth rate of downstream consumer goods has begun to lag behind that of capital goods and intermediate goods, and this trend is expected to continue in the short term.</b>First, the continued improvement of the epidemic situation in Europe and the United States, the continuous increase in vaccination rates, the continuous recovery of industrial production capacity, and the continuous expansion of demand for intermediate and capital goods have driven China's export structure to move upstream in the industrial chain. Second, fiscal stimulus policies such as unemployment subsidies in developed countries are gradually being withdrawn, and residents' demand for consumer goods is showing a marginal weakening trend. Third, the pandemic situation in Asia and Latin America has improved marginally, and China's export substitution effect has weakened. Fourth, the appreciation of the RMB, port congestion, and rising freight costs have constrained commodity exports. Looking at the overseas imports corresponding to my country's exports, the import growth rate of the United States across three major categories also showed a trend of declining consumer goods while increasing capital goods and intermediate goods.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5deedacad3813d25464800f2a31fcd90\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Specifically, at the level of various consumer goods, exports of epidemic prevention materials, represented by textile yarns and medical devices, have continued to decline since the second half of last year.</b>Currently, its average year-on-year growth rate over the past two years is lower than the overall export growth rate. But<b>Pharmaceuticals represented by vaccines</b>Exports are showing a continuous upward trend, leading the export growth rate of all products.</p><p><b>The post-real estate cycle and electronics exports, which previously significantly boosted my country's exports, have begun to diverge. Export growth of post-real estate cyclical products has declined, but it is still higher than the overall export growth rate.</b>This will boost my country's exports. However, the export growth rate of electronic products (mobile phones and computers, etc.) has begun to decline sharply and is now lower than the overall export growth rate.<b>This indicates that the logic behind the overseas stay-at-home economy's purchase demand, replacement demand, and restocking demand driving my country's electronics exports has begun to fade.</b></p><p><b>Regarding automobile exports, although the global automotive industry chain is significantly limited by supply bottlenecks in components such as chips, my country's automobile and auto parts exports still maintain a high level of prosperity.</b>The reason may be that my country's exported automobile-related products are mainly non-chip auto parts, and the supply bottleneck in the automotive industry has a relatively limited impact on the export of such products. In addition,<b>The apparel, footwear, and bags market, temporarily suppressed by the pandemic, remains sluggish and has significant potential for recovery.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d21a4458aed45cf4b59a4e1df77fd4fb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"592\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>In terms of export destinations, my country's export growth to ASEAN was relatively leading in May, while the growth rate of exports to the United States showed signs of decline.</b>Firstly, the biggest characteristic of my country's export destinations in April and May was that the growth rate of my country's exports to the United States and Europe had begun to converge. Demand for goods stimulated by US fiscal policy had exceeded the trend for many months, and marginal momentum was showing weakness. Meanwhile, Europe was catching up with the United States in vaccination, the epidemic was gradually under control, and the European recovery fund was steadily advancing. In the future, the driving force of my country's export destinations may also shift from the United States to Europe. Secondly, due to proper social control, Southeast Asian countries controlled the epidemic well from last year to March this year, and the resumption of work and production increased the demand for my country's exports. However, due to the lag in vaccination progress, Southeast Asian countries cannot achieve herd immunity in the short term. The spillover of the epidemic in India has led to another outbreak of the epidemic in Southeast Asian countries since May with rapid momentum. In June, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia and other countries successively implemented lockdown or national lockdown policies, which will once again hinder the recovery process of my country's manufacturing industry, and the growth rate of my country's exports to Southeast Asian countries may be disrupted in the future.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb46f2eaf425805e142d127423b3e2d4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>my country's exports still face supporting factors in the short term, and a decline in the medium term is unlikely to be avoided.</b>In the short term, firstly, the ongoing recovery of developed economies such as Europe and the United States will continue to support my country's external demand; Secondly, some Southeast Asian countries have initiated lockdowns due to the recurrence of the epidemic, which has supported my country's export substitution. Third, as the resumption of work in Europe and the United States gradually improves the pressure on the supply chain, the backlog of transportation and container demand is gradually being digested, and freight rates are expected to enter a downward trend. However, the decline in overseas commodity demand and the recovery of production capacity in the second half of the year, coupled with the narrowing of the output gap, are detrimental to domestic exports.<b>We expect that June and August this year may be the relative peak of my country's export levels, and the export levels may decline to a controllable extent after the fourth quarter. However, due to the high base last year, the year-on-year growth rate may turn negative. In this situation, domestic demand needs to be moderately hedged.</b></p><p><h3><b>Counter-cyclical domestic demand: Resilience and constraints coexist</b></h3><b>Real Estate: Data shows three major divergences</b></p><p><b>Real estate investment has dropped slightly from its peak. From January to May this year, real estate development investment accumulated 18.3% year-on-year, with a compound annual growth rate of 8.6% over the past two years. We estimate that the compound annual growth rate over the past two years in May was 9%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points compared to April. In terms of structure, there are three major differentiations:</b></p><p><b>First, the front-end is weak and the back-end is strong.</b>The two-year compound annual growth rates of land acquisition and new construction starts in May were -16.9% and -1.9%, respectively. With financing constraints coupled with tightening real estate market regulations, real estate companies' front-end investment remained sluggish. Although April saw the first round of land supply peak of the year, the growth rate of land transactions in April and May was still negative. The growth rate of completed floor area rose sharply in May, with a two-year compound annual growth rate of 8.2%. Since 2017, there has been a continuous positive gap between construction starts and completions.<b>A wave of completions in the past two years is highly probable and will be a major lead in real estate-related transactions.</b></p><p><b>Second, weak financing and strong sales.</b>In May, the two-year compound annual growth rates of domestic loans and sales receipts (deposit advance receipts + personal mortgages) were 0.6% and 16.7% respectively, showing a significant difference. Since the \"three red lines\" were implemented, real estate companies have seen a weakening of external financing, while their reliance on sales revenue has become significantly stronger.<b>Therefore, the timing of the sales turnaround requires close attention;</b></p><p><b>Third, weak construction and high prices.</b>Real estate investment can be fitted by construction area, PPI (reflecting construction intensity per unit of construction area), and land acquisition cost. Due to weak new construction starts and improved completion rates, the growth rate of existing construction area has been declining since the beginning of the year, but real estate investment remains resilient.<b>Rising building material prices have contributed significantly to nominal real estate investment this year.</b></p><p><b>Looking ahead, mortgage quota controls and strict investigations into illegal loans will cool down the real estate market, and real estate investment may show a gradual decline in the second half of the year.</b>Macro-prudential policies in the real estate market (such as mortgage concentration management) may control the amount of mortgage loans in the second half of the year. At the same time, the illegal entry of consumer loans and business loans into the real estate market is also being strictly investigated to curb residents from increasing leverage and transferring funds to real estate companies.<b>The growth of household loans has begun to show a turning point. Real estate sales and investment trends are inevitably weakening, but due to the continued tightening of monetary policy and the slow rise in mortgage rates, there is no risk of a slowdown in real estate sales and investment.</b>The \"two concentrations\" of land supply in key cities may lead to increased fluctuations in investment data and lower gross profit margins for projects. The Shanghai model is becoming a hot topic of discussion in the market.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca66050e47d9551b7a0e55b46f9fecdd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/155caf8f6eae867084efcf4c9af5013e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Infrastructure: Hovering at low levels, with slight improvement in the second half of the year.</b></p><p><b>Infrastructure investment remained low. From January to May this year, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of infrastructure investment was 11.8%, with a compound annual growth rate of 2.6% over the past two years. We estimate that the compound annual growth rate for the past two years in May was 2.8%, which is 0.4 percentage points faster than in April.</b></p><p>The slight acceleration in infrastructure investment may be driven by the accelerated supply of special-purpose bonds, but it is still weaker than the growth rate during the peak construction season in March this year. On the one hand, as part of a combination of measures to stabilize prices, the State Council executive meeting on May 19 required the curbing of high-energy-consuming projects, and recently many local governments have cut planned investment projects for high energy consumption and high energy consumption. On the other hand, affected by the new regulations of stock exchanges in late April, the review conditions for the issuance of local government financing vehicles (LGFV) bonds became stricter and the use of raised funds was restricted, resulting in negative growth in LGFV financing in May, which dragged down the source of infrastructure funds.</p><p><b>Infrastructure investment may provide a moderate bottom line in the second half of the year.</b>On the one hand, consumption and manufacturing have not yet recovered to their ideal state, while export orders have begun to weaken and the impact of high-pressure real estate regulation is gradually emerging. Infrastructure needs to be supported, and some restrictive policies may be moderately relaxed. On the other hand, the supply of government bonds was slow in the first half of this year, but there is a lot of room for improvement in the second half, so the fiscal policy is expected to make subsequent efforts to support infrastructure investment.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/409ae828dc2b1173cb87931306650b41\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a02ac0b9afac27d4e2dd00276d70f21b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Domestic demand is pro-cyclical: gradually improving amidst resistance.</b></p><p><b>Manufacturing: Investment in the midstream equipment industry is accelerating</b></p><p><b>Manufacturing investment has recovered moderately. From January to May this year, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of manufacturing investment was 20.4%, with a two-year compound annual growth rate of 0.6%, turning from negative to positive. We estimate that the two-year compound annual growth rate in May will be 3.7%, which is 0.3 percentage points faster than in April. At the industry level, upstream investment growth is relatively leading, while midstream and downstream sectors continue to catch up:</b>(1) This year, the overall investment growth rate of upstream industries is leading, which matches the high prosperity of upstream industries such as prices, profits and inventory replenishment; (2) The start of the manufacturing investment cycle is the core driving force for the equipment industry, and investment in the midstream equipment industry has accelerated rapidly recently; (3) The pharmaceutical and communications electronics industries are beneficiaries of the epidemic, and they stand out among downstream industries in terms of profitability and investment. (4) Other downstream consumer industries performed relatively poorly, which is consistent with the recurring pandemic and the slow recovery of domestic consumption. (5) In recent years, the automotive industry has gone from damaged demand to damaged supply, and capital expenditure has recovered slowly.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/030e056c8487307106328e55069441ac\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1041\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>What are the future trends of manufacturing investment?</b>In our report \"Manufacturing Investment in the Three-Tier Cycle\" published on June 24, 2021, we analyzed and judged the trend of the manufacturing industry from the perspectives of long, medium and short cycles and the meso-industry. In summary, in the long run, my country's manufacturing investment has entered a stable period, with single-digit growth being the norm;<b>In the medium term, the Jugra cycle began in the second half of last year and is still in an upward phase. In the second half of this year, as the proportion of domestic demand in the demand structure increases and profit distribution tilts towards the middle and lower reaches, enterprises' willingness to invest is expected to continue to improve. In the short term, the recurring pandemic in China may suppress the pace of investment, but it is not enough to change the cyclical recovery momentum of investment. However, the recent resurgence of the epidemic in Israel may raise concerns about the effectiveness of vaccines, and it remains to be seen whether it will suppress corporate investment willingness from a confidence perspective.</b>From a meso-level perspective, the growth rate of investment in upstream industries is currently relatively ahead, and the acceleration of investment in the second half of the year may be concentrated in the midstream and downstream industries. Investment in the traditional Chinese medicine and communications electronics industries is expected to maintain a high level of prosperity.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b10d2368e367ed0551d6da000e7d55e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfa1a7308a83c60fded97cd970ec2ec2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Consumption: Labor Day boosts social economy, completion wave helps post-real estate cycle</b></p><p><b>Total retail sales of consumer goods in May were 12.4% year-on-year, lower than market expectations (Wind's consensus forecast was 12.8%), with a two-year compound annual growth rate of 4.5%, 0.2 percentage points faster than the previous value. The seasonally adjusted month-on-month ratios for April and May were 0.25% and 0.81%, respectively.</b>Consumption accelerated, but structural differentiation increased. Looking at the two-year compound annual growth rate of sub-categories, social economy consumption accelerated across the board, mainly due to the boost from Labor Day. Consumption improved significantly after the real estate development cycle, with home appliance consumption accelerating by 5.2 percentage points, benefiting from accelerated real estate completion. The significant decline in automobile and communication equipment consumption was mainly due to a shortage of chips on the supply side constraining demand. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) expects that automobile production and sales data in June will remain pessimistic and will ease in the fourth quarter.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0ab17ad04d4af4693ad60de157b7d35\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>How should we view the current level of consumption recovery? First, total consumption remains weak, with a growth rate of about 50% of pre-pandemic levels.</b>Looking at the two-year compound annual growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in May this year, the 4.5% growth rate is only about 50% of that before the pandemic; The two-year compound annual growth rate of per capita consumption expenditure nationwide in the first quarter of this year was 3.9%, far lower than the 8.5% for the whole of 2019.<b>Secondly, service consumption is particularly sluggish.</b>The two-year compound annual growth rate of national catering revenue in April and May this year was only 0.4% and 1.3%, respectively. According to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, the number of domestic travelers during this year's May Day holiday was 103.2% of the same period before the pandemic (on a comparable basis), while tourism revenue was only 77% of the same period before the pandemic. During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the number of domestic tourists nationwide recovered to 98.7% of the same period before the pandemic on a comparable basis, but domestic tourism revenue only recovered to 74.8% of the same period before the pandemic, indicating that service sector consumption is still constrained.</p><p><b>How should we understand the slow recovery in</b>Consumption can be broken down into disposable income x consumption propensity x consumption scenarios. ① Residents' income generally follows the order of \"corporate profit recovery -> job market improvement -> residents' income growth\"; ② Consumption propensity is affected by factors such as the level of economic prosperity, precautionary savings, wealth inequality, and the real estate cycle. Among them, the willingness to consume lags behind the recovery of the economy, which determines that consumption is a post-cyclical variable of the economy. ③ Consumption scenarios are related to factors such as the pandemic environment, vaccination, government control measures, and car chip shortages. Based on this, the current consumption recovery is insufficient.<b>First, the job market has not fully recovered, and the growth rate of residents' income is still lower than before the pandemic; Second, due to insufficient economic prosperity, a precautionary savings mentality, widening income inequality, and a rising real estate cycle, social consumption propensity has declined. Third, due to localized recurrences of the epidemic and insufficient vaccination rates, consumption scenarios still need to recover, contact-based consumption such as catering is significantly insufficient, and automobiles are short of chips.</b></p><p><b>How can we estimate the length and depth of the subsequent consumption recovery? In the short term, the localized recurrence of the epidemic may have a significant impact on consumption. Weak consumption data for the Dragon Boat Festival and \"618\" shopping festivals has already been reflected, but the sustainability of the impact is expected to be limited. In the second half of the year, with income growth, declining precautionary savings, cooling real estate sales, and increasing vaccination rates, consumption will remain a gradual improvement trend. It is expected that this round of consumption recovery will last at least until the first half of next year, and the steady growth rate of consumption will not reach the pre-pandemic level, mainly because the recovery of consumption propensity is slow and the pandemic crisis has caused systemic damage.</b>The specific reasons are as follows:</p><p>① Corporate profit growth may peak in the first half of this year. Based on experience, the recovery of residents' income growth will continue until the fourth quarter of this year, but the growth rate is expected to be difficult to reach the level before the pandemic (2019). The loss of growth rate is due to the structural damage to the job market after the pandemic and the systemic decline in the potential economic growth rate. ② The recovery of consumption propensity will be driven by improved economic conditions and a cooling of the real estate market, but will be relatively delayed. It is expected to take until the first half of next year. Since the economy and housing prices after stabilization will find it difficult to return to pre-pandemic levels, consumption propensity will also find it difficult to return to pre-pandemic levels. ③ It is expected that constraints on consumption scenarios will be basically lifted by the end of this year. Recently, domestic vaccination has accelerated, and it is expected that the vaccination rate will reach the standard of herd immunity in the fourth quarter, at which time the impact of the scenario on consumption will become weak. And<b>Mutated viruses escape vaccine immunity, and the recurring epidemics are the main risks restricting the recovery of consumption.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f531935f1fe921affab113a7395d33f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40532eb5c451d2649616040dd80a3a87\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"406\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>The highlights of the consumption recovery in the second half of the year are expected to be the recovery of social economy consumption and the continuation of post-real estate cycle consumption.</b>First, social economy consumption is still a weakness. Although the domestic epidemic has recurred recently, vaccination is also accelerating, and restorative demand is expected in the second half of the year, including in the fields of leisure services, air passenger transport, and clothing. Secondly, the high sales temperature in the domestic real estate market has continued for some time, and the probability of a wave of completions in the real estate market is also relatively high. Consumption in the later cycle is expected to perform well. Automobile consumption (especially new energy vehicles) has benefited from the pandemic and low-carbon transition policies, but faces supply constraints (chip shortage) in the short term.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b6797f1aad65029674a570cc4387361\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Employment: The unemployment rate has returned to pre-pandemic levels, but the unemployment rate among young people is rising.</b></p><p><b>In May, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.0%, down 0.1 percentage points from April and down 0.9 percentage points from the same period last year. From January to May, 5.74 million new urban jobs were created nationwide, achieving 52.2% of the annual target.</b>The unemployment rate has basically returned to pre-pandemic levels, and the completion rate of new urban jobs has exceeded half. While the pressure to stabilize employment may not seem great, structural concerns still exist. In May, the surveyed unemployment rates for the 16-24 age group and the 25-59 age group were 13.8% (13.6% in April) and 4.4% (4.6% in April), respectively. With the overall unemployment rate and the unemployment rate for the 25-59 age group declining, the unemployment rate for the 16-24 age group rose compared to the previous month, indicating that employment challenges remain for young people, and attention should be paid to the pressure of the subsequent graduation season.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/753064749358ad5a59db6f68af7c640d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Inflation: PPI-CPI scissors gap hits new high</b></p><p><b>The CPI rose moderately, but domestic demand did not reach its ideal level.</b></p><p><b>The CPI in May was 1.3% year-on-year, up 0.4 percentage points, with a carryover effect accounting for 0.9%. The CPI fell 0.2% month-on-month, unchanged from the seasonal average (the historical average for the same period was -0.2%). The core CPI rose 0.2 percentage points to 0.9% year-on-year.</b>The CPI increase remained moderate and lower than market expectations. This was due to two factors: firstly, the decline in pork prices suppressed the growth, and secondly, the slow recovery of consumption. However, due to the boost in holiday travel demand and the passing on of local costs, the core CPI remained at a higher level than the same period in history.</p><p><b>In terms of items:</b></p><p><b>In May, the food CPI rose 0.3% year-on-year, 1 percentage point, and -1.7% month-on-month (the historical average for the same period was -1.1%).</b>(1) The decline in pork prices is still significant, mainly due to the continuous recovery of production capacity and the expectation of a decline in pork prices, which has led to panicked slaughter by farmers. The Ministry of Agriculture expects the number of live pigs to recover to normal levels in June and July this year, and the number of pigs slaughtered to recover to normal levels from October onwards. It is worth noting that due to the decline in pork prices and the rise in feed prices, pig farming has entered a loss-making phase, which will dampen farmers' enthusiasm for restocking. (2) Fruit and vegetable prices fell second, mainly due to the seasonal rebound in supply. However, fruit and vegetable prices are still at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history, which may be due to increased production and transportation costs. It is expected that with the arrival of the main flood season, vegetable prices will turn from falling to rising, while the successive arrival of fresh summer fruits will push fruit prices down further. (3) Aquatic products and eggs saw significant increases, and the National Bureau of Statistics explained that both were affected by the increase in feed prices.</p><p><b>In May, the non-food CPI rose 1.6% year-on-year, 0.3 percentage points, and 0.2% month-on-month (the historical average for the same period was 0.1%).</b>Among them, the month-on-month increases in tourism, transportation, other goods and services (including hotels), clothing, and household appliances were stronger than the seasonal increases. This was due to two main reasons: first, the recovery in prices for transportation/travel agencies/hotels, driven by travel demand during Labor Day; and second, the increase in raw material prices, with electrical appliances being greatly affected by costs. The month-on-month increases in daily necessities and healthcare products other than household appliances were weaker than seasonal, indicating that domestic consumption has not recovered to its ideal state.</p><p><b>Looking ahead, the CPI pressure this year is not significant, and the fourth quarter may reach a high point for the year, which can be controlled within 3%. The core CPI is likely to rise month by month this year as service consumption recovers and manufacturing costs are passed on, and is expected to rise to nearly 2% by the end of the year.</b>Specifically, the CPI for the second half of the year is analyzed using four factors. Among them, the service industry has a clear trend of recovery in volume and price, but the pace is slow. Although the recent epidemic in Guangzhou and Shenzhen has been disrupted, it has also accelerated vaccination, which is expected to reduce the risk of subsequent epidemics. Core commodity prices gradually pass on costs as consumption improves, lagging behind at least six months after upstream raw material prices peak. Oil price trends remain uncertain. In the short term, the easing of the pandemic in Europe and the United States and improved travel have boosted crude oil demand. At the same time, shale oil production capacity is still lacking, while supply elasticity is expected to improve in the second half of the year. Hog production capacity continues to recover, and low pork prices coupled with a high base will remain the main factors suppressing inflation in the second half of the year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0270abbcb83c3c4ede6166a201bb3d54\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>PPI continues to rise, with domestically priced ferrous metals leading the gains.</b></p><p><b>The PPI rose 2.2 percentage points to 9% year-on-year in May, with a carryover effect accounting for approximately 2.8%. The PPI rose 1.6% month-on-month, an increase of 0.7 percentage points, reaching another historical high.</b>The month-on-month increase in upstream means of production widened, and domestically priced ferrous metals outperformed globally priced non-ferrous metals and crude oil. Downstream industrial consumer goods continued to see significant increases, especially durable consumer goods, which were greatly affected by rising raw material prices and whose demand improved rapidly, saw a relatively significant cost shift.</p><p><b>By item: In May, the PPI for means of production increased by 2.1% month-on-month, an increase of 0.9 percentage points, and by 12% year-on-year.</b>By commodity, (1) ferrous metals (5.1%) led the gains. Recently, domestic real estate construction has been weak, while crude steel production has grown rapidly and inventories are higher than seasonal. The fundamentals do not support the rise in ferrous metals, and the main reason for the price increase is still the expectation of supply contraction. (2) Non-ferrous metals (4.1%) also saw a significant increase. Recently, the high level of the epidemic in South America and the strike by copper miners in Chile have affected supply. At the same time, the epidemic in Europe and the United States has subsided and the manufacturing industry has recovered, and the supply-demand mismatch is still unfolding. (3) Energy prices (2.8%) turned from falling to rising, which is related to the recovery of travel in Europe and the United States. In addition, the recent weakening of the US dollar is a common factor driving up commodity prices.<b>The PPI for consumer goods was 0.1% month-on-month, unchanged from the previous value, and 0.5% year-on-year.</b>Among them, daily necessities saw the largest increases, while durable consumer goods saw a cumulative increase in three months, reaching a new high in nearly ten years, indicating that cost shifting continues to be reflected.</p><p><b>Looking ahead, the PPI trend this year will depend on changes in international commodity prices and base factors. The resonance of these two factors in the second quarter led to a steep rise in PPI. The rebound in the base in the second half of the year is obvious. The rise in commodities is key and is expected to converge quarter-on-quarter. This corresponds to the PPI peaking in the middle of the year. It may still remain high in the third quarter. The pressure will gradually ease in the fourth quarter, and the central level for the whole year may fall to around 6%.</b>Our main logic for judging commodity prices is as follows: First, the inflection point of global liquidity (M2) occurred in March, about a quarter ahead of the inflection point of commodities. Secondly, the stable pandemic situation in the United States, coupled with overdrawn demand for durable goods, will lead to a shift in consumption from goods to services in the second half of the year. Third, the suppressive effects of domestic real estate policies may become apparent in the second half of the year; Fourth, vaccination rates in resource-rich countries are continuously increasing, and the supply-demand mismatch will alleviate over time; Fifth, the United States has a relatively advanced vaccination program, and expectations of economic opening up and the Federal Reserve's exit from QE are rising in the second half of the year. The US dollar may experience a period of strength, which will also suppress the rise in commodity prices. However, attention still needs to be paid to the progress of the new US fiscal stimulus plan, the design of domestic carbon reduction and production restriction policies, and upside risks such as the boost to oil prices caused by the opening of the borders between Europe and the United States.</p><p><b>The PPI-CPI scissors gap has reached a new high. Every time the scissors gap breaks through the previous high in history, the PPI has peaked and fallen, while the CPI, especially for non-food products, has been on an upward trend for more than six months to absorb cost pressures. The story of each round is different. Currently, the PPI is passing its peak (May-June), but it may still be operating at a high level in the third quarter and fall back later. The CPI faces two positive and negative factors: rising costs and weak domestic demand. The rise is slow, and the scissors gap may converge slowly.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78ffba024dd7d33c2c8a5ec459cbec39\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc31b51e7cb05fde90a22372f598ce4b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"380\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Finance: Local contraction of credit is the main feature</b></p><p><b>Characteristic 1: Stable total volume and differentiated main bodies.</b>In May, social financing reached 1.92 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.27 trillion yuan, slightly lower than market expectations. The year-on-year growth rate of outstanding social financing was 11%, down 0.7 percentage points from April. Excluding government bonds, the growth rate was 9.9%, down 0.5 percentage points. First, the high base from March to June last year; second, the constraints of local government financing vehicle (LGFV) real estate financing policies dragged down the volume of corporate bonds and non-standard debt. However, on-balance-sheet credit is not weak and has a good structure, with strong medium- and long-term corporate loans and a surge in bill loans, indicating policy support for financing for the real economy. Overall, the credit environment differs significantly among different entities. The manufacturing sector has better access to financing, while the financing conditions for local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) and real estate are tight, which is still a characteristic of localized credit contraction.</p><p><b>Characteristic 2: Corporate bond volume is decreasing, while government bond volume is accelerating.</b>Looking at the departmental structure:<b>(1) Enterprise side</b>Medium- and long-term lending remained strong due to two factors: first, the continued promotion of credit support policies for the manufacturing sector; second, the State Council executive meeting on May 19th deployed measures to increase credit support for inclusive micro and small enterprises; and third, the recent acceleration in the issuance of special bonds may boost infrastructure supporting loans. Corporate non-standard financing is still affected by policies such as regulation of financing trusts and rectification of wealth management products. Since the beginning of the year, the stock of trust loans has maintained a downward trend of about 100 billion yuan per month. Corporate bond financing decreased by 421.5 billion yuan year-on-year, marking the first negative growth since May 2018, mainly due to the reduced volume of local government financing vehicle (LGFV) bond financing.<b>(2) Residential side</b>Loans increased by 623.2 billion yuan in May, a decrease of 81.1 billion yuan year-on-year. Among them, the narrowing of new short-term loans and medium- and long-term loans is due to the weak crackdown on illegal consumer loans and actual consumption activity, the marginal convergence of medium- and long-term loans, and the possibility of peaking real estate sales in this round.<b>(3) Government side</b>In May, government bond financing reached 670.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 466.1 billion yuan year-on-year. The base was high in the same period last year, and the actual amount was significantly higher than in the first four months of this year and the same period in previous years, indicating that the pace of supply had accelerated significantly.</p><p><b>There are three key points to consider when issuing local government bonds:</b>Firstly, the Ministry of Finance recently allocated a local government debt limit of 3,467.6 billion yuan for this year, which is 202.4 billion yuan less than the budget allocation, triggering discussions about reducing the limit. In fact, it is customary for local government debt quotas to be allocated in batches throughout the year. However, the annual quota has not yet been allocated by the middle of the year, which may reveal the possibility of dissatisfaction with the total issuance for the year, mainly due to the strict constraints on project approval. Secondly, on June 7, Finance Minister Liu Kun mentioned that appropriately relaxing the time limit for the issuance of special bonds is mainly to improve the efficiency of bond fund utilization and avoid stagnation. This means that there may be no clear schedule requirements this year, and there may be issuance at the end of the year. However, according to micro-surveys, supply will remain relatively concentrated in the third quarter, which may be related to the year-end fiscal audit surplus and worsening construction weather conditions. Third, this year's special bond project has been well-prepared in advance, and it is expected that funds will be disbursed quickly, weakening liquidity disturbances, while the feedback lag at the economic level may also be shortened.</p><p><b>Feature 3: The gap between M2 and M1 growth rates is widening, and non-bank deposits have increased significantly.</b>In May, the year-on-year growth rate of M2 rose to 8.3% from 8.1% in April, while that of M1 fell from 6.2% to 6.1%, with the gap between the two growth rates widening slightly. Social financing growth slowed in May, but M2 growth increased. This is because government bonds and non-standard deposits contributed significantly to social financing in May last year, but these two did not directly generate M2, while deposit growth in May this year was mainly contributed by non-bank deposits. Specifically, the monthly increase in household, corporate, and fiscal deposits all decreased compared to last year. The decrease in corporate and fiscal deposits was mainly due to a high base and less government bond issuance compared to the same period last year. Non-bank deposits have historically fluctuated significantly, and the sharp increase in the current month may be due to two reasons: First, banks generally transitioned through products such as money market funds against the backdrop of asset shortages and weak credit demand, leading to an expansion in the scale of non-bank assets; second, the growth in non-bank loans generated a large number of non-bank deposits.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f8602fe9aecaa90b38aa63eba678f4b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Market Implications</b></p><p><b>From a macroeconomic perspective, economic growth will gradually slow down, but will be more balanced. Regarding inflation, the CPI is under control, the PPI is likely to remain high in the third quarter, and the pressure will gradually ease in the fourth quarter, with the annual central level likely to fall around 6%. In terms of policy, domestic monetary policy will prioritize stability, while fiscal policy will be implemented later. The Federal Reserve's exit from QE will be a key focus in the third quarter.</b></p><p><b>Bond market: Short-term trading policies > liquidity > supply and demand > fundamentals. The fundamental trend determines that the bond market will fluctuate narrowly, an upward trend is an opportunity, and the curve will flatten slightly.</b></p><p><b>Stock Market: Profit-driven is not over yet, pay attention to industry rotation under distribution changes.</b>We expect the PPI to remain high in the third quarter, unchanging the pro-cyclical logic driven by profits. However, at the same time, commodity prices have peaked and the PPI-CPI scissors gap has entered a convergence phase. Profit distribution will tilt towards midstream and downstream industries, and the midstream equipment industry may usher in a turnaround under the Jugra cycle and improved profit margins. The downstream consumer sector is focusing on national brands under the recovery of the social economy, as well as post-cycle consumer goods under the wave of bulk consumption and real estate completion.</p><p><b>Commodities: The commodity boom may have passed, and policy disruptions are a risk.  </b>We expect the current commodity boom to have passed, and there is little room for further price increases in the second half of the year. First, the global liquidity (M2) inflection point occurred in March, about a quarter ahead of the commodity inflection point. Secondly, the stable pandemic situation in the United States, coupled with overdrawn demand for durable goods, will lead to a shift in consumption from goods to services in the second half of the year. Third, the suppressive effects of domestic real estate policies may become apparent in the second half of the year; Fourth, vaccination rates in resource-rich countries are continuously increasing, and the supply-demand mismatch will alleviate over time; Fifth, the United States has a relatively advanced vaccination program, and expectations of economic opening up and the Federal Reserve's exit from QE are rising in the second half of the year. The US dollar may experience a period of strength, which will also suppress the rise in commodity prices. However, it is still necessary to pay attention to the progress of the new US fiscal stimulus plan and the design of domestic carbon reduction and production restriction policies. The opening of the borders between Europe and the United States will boost oil prices, which is the main upside risk for commodity prices in the second half of the year.</p><p><b>Exchange rate: We maintain our assessment of the the US Dollar Index range of 90-94, with the pressure on RMB appreciation easing in stages and fluctuating in both directions.</b>On the one hand, from a fundamental perspective, the marginal momentum of vaccination and economic recovery in Europe is catching up with the United States, and the strength of the euro is expected to suppress the dollar to some extent in the short term. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve has released hawkish statements, and the normalization of US monetary policy is gradually beginning, providing strong support for the dollar. The dollar is expected to maintain a volatile and strong trend. Regarding the RMB, the positive factors are that my country's economy will continue to lead the world, and the current account and capital account surpluses brought about by strong exports and the opening of the domestic capital market are expected to continue. The negative factors are the impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the strong US dollar. Overall, the appreciation pressure on the RMB is expected to ease in stages and maintain two-way fluctuations within a wide range.</p><p><b>Risk Warning</b></p><p><b>Safety production disturbances before July 1st:</b>Safety production requirements are high before Daqing, which may affect industrial and construction production activities in the short term.</p><p><b>Mutated novel coronavirus escapes vaccine protection:</b>Israel as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">the whole people</a>A typical example of immunity is the recent resurgence of the epidemic, and the Delta+ variant of the novel coronavirus may evade the protection of existing vaccines. Vaccine failure can have a confidence impact on the global recovery and corporate investment.</p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Resilience and resistance in recovery</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nResilience and resistance in recovery\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-28 19:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><h3><b>Resilience and resistance in recovery</b></h3><b>May's economic data showed five main characteristics: First, production remained stable, demand weakened marginally, and the output gap narrowed; Second, the demand structure is trending towards a balance between internal and external factors, and pro-cyclical forces are slowly improving.</b>Looking at the two-year compound annual growth rate, export and real estate growth declined marginally in May, while consumption and manufacturing investment accelerated slightly, but the structural changes were not significant.<b>Third, the service sector is recovering rapidly.</b>Boosted by the extended Labor Day, both volume and prices of consumer services such as catering and accommodation increased. However, the recent epidemic in Guangdong further disrupted consumption during the Dragon Boat Festival, resulting in poor performance.<b>Fourth, the PPI-CPI scissors gap has reached a new high.</b>However, the PPI peak may have already occurred;<b>Fifth, the characteristics of localized credit contraction are obvious.</b>The manufacturing sector has good financing availability, while financing conditions for local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) and real estate are tight, and government financing is beginning to accelerate.</p><p><b>At the meso level:</b>With the acceleration of domestic vaccination, production and investment in the pharmaceutical industry have maintained high prosperity; Due to the chip shortage, both production, sales, and capital expenditures in the automotive industry have declined; Demand in the midstream equipment industry is strong both domestically and internationally, but profit margins remain under pressure. Boosted by Labor Day, social economy consumption accelerated across the board; Driven by the wave of completions, post-real estate cycle consumption has improved significantly.</p><p><b>The combination for the first half of the year is economic recovery, rising inflation, stable monetary policy, tight fiscal policy, and localized credit contraction. The combination for the second half of the year is expected to be a slowdown in economic momentum, convergence in PPI and CPI, stable monetary policy, some fiscal action, and easing of credit conditions.</b>The economy improved overall in April and May compared to the first quarter, with exports and real estate remaining the main drivers. However, the recent peak in household credit growth and the decline in export orders may have indicated a turning point, and the speed of the decline in the second half of the year will be key. Consumption and manufacturing are gradually recovering, but they are relatively lacking in elasticity. Fiscal efforts are still needed in the second half of the year, and the economy relies on infrastructure to support it. After the PPI peaked at an accelerated pace in the second quarter, inflation anxieties are expected to ease in the second half of the year. However, with weak domestic demand and a slowdown in social financing growth, monetary policy is not expected to tighten and credit conditions are expected to be relaxed.</p><p><b>In the short term, due to multiple disturbances such as the recurring domestic epidemic, chip shortages in industries such as automobiles, cost pressures in midstream and downstream sectors, and safe production before July 1st, the economic performance in June may be poor.</b>In the medium term, besides the decline in real estate and exports, the downside risks to the economy are twofold: firstly, if the sustainability of large-scale price increases exceeds expectations, it may lead to a \"stagflation-like\" economy, while policies face a dilemma. Secondly, regarding the design and implementation of carbon reduction policies, if steel and other production are forcibly reduced within the year, it will have an adverse impact on inflation, production, and investment. Third, the uncertainty of Sino-US relations; Fourth, the Federal Reserve will shift its pace earlier than expected, and domestic monetary policy will face external pressure at that time; Fifth, the mutated novel coronavirus will be separated from existing vaccine protection, which will negatively affect the global recovery prospects and entrepreneurs' investment confidence. And<b>Upside risk</b>The main reason is that fiscal support and overseas inventory replenishment exceeded expectations, bringing infrastructure flexibility and export resilience.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/911e11f22330eab379da386447fbb53c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Production: Upstream decline, midstream strength, downstream divergence</b></p><p><b>In May this year, industrial added value increased by 8.8% year-on-year, with a two-year compound annual growth rate of 6.6%, a slight decrease from 6.8% in April. After seasonal adjustment, it increased by 0.52% month-on-month, the same as in April, showing a relatively stable performance.</b>Structurally, the supply-side industry characteristics in May did not change significantly compared to April.<b>Overall, the situation is characterized by a decline in the upstream sector, strength in the midstream, and divergence in the downstream sector:</b></p><p><b>Upstream industry decline: Upstream industry performance remained basically stable, with only slight changes within a narrow range compared to April, but it has significantly declined compared to the small production peak from the second half of last year to March this year.</b>Although environmental protection production restrictions have been marginally eased, they are difficult to reverse. Real estate investment remains resilient, commodity prices are fluctuating at high levels, and the internal and external environment facing upstream industries has not changed significantly. In terms of output, the average year-on-year growth rate of power generation over the past two years increased slightly from 5.5% in the previous month to 6.1%. The two-year average growth rate of raw coal, steel, non-ferrous metals and cement production decreased slightly compared with the previous month, while the two-year compound annual growth rate of ethylene production increased slightly.</p><p><b>Strong performance in the midstream sector: In terms of midstream equipment industries, production in general equipment, special equipment, instruments and meters, and electrical machinery declined slightly compared to April, but remained at the leading level among all industries, which is consistent with the trend of rising investment in the manufacturing sector. automobile manufacturing industry</b>The two-year average growth rate of added value narrowed slightly compared to April, the impact of chip shortages remains severe, and the supply-side impact persists. In terms of output, metal cutting machine tools, industrial<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>The output growth rate of midstream equipment products such as AC motors remained high, while the output growth rate of automobiles was relatively limited.</p><p><b>Downstream divergence: The structural performance of downstream industries was basically the same as last month, with electromechanical products maintaining strength supported by exports.</b>It was basically the same as the previous month;<b>Vaccine manufacturing drives the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry</b>The two-year average growth rate of added value reached 16.9%, the most prosperous among all manufacturing sectors;<b>Textile-related textile, apparel and leather goods industries</b>Their performance remained weak. In terms of production, the production of integrated circuits and electronic computers declined from a high level, while the growth rate of mobile phone production remained low.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2760a1b57f14d13091466d21f8ab4b4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1078\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/030c04e1212510e532392d9b22cc409d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>In terms of industrial production, the total growth rate and structure in May were basically the same as the previous month.</b>We believe that the rise in raw material prices on the supply side has shown signs of peaking but has not yet reversed. Environmental protection production restrictions have been marginally relaxed but will not be reversed. After my country's industrial production has passed its peak, the total volume and structure are not expected to fluctuate too much in the short term. The strength of the export chain, midstream equipment, and pharmaceutical manufacturing industries may be maintained in the short term.<b>However, it is important to note that the safety production policies implemented before July 1st may have a negative impact on the production side, especially the construction industry chain and chemical industries.</b>In the medium term, the impact of supply chain shortages is expected to continue into the third quarter, the export chain may weaken by the end of the year, and consumption recovery may fall short of expectations, which is expected to have a negative impact on production. Industrial production will face more negative factors in the medium term.</p><p><b>In the service sector, boosted by Labor Day in May, the consumer services industry showed a positive recovery momentum.</b>According to the May service sector PMI data, the PMI for travel-related industries such as accommodation, railway and air transport has been above 65% for two consecutive months, while the PMI for consumer-related industries such as retail, catering and entertainment has been above 58%, reflecting the positive recovery momentum of the consumer services industry. The positive factors for the subsequent recovery of the service industry are the steady progress of vaccination and revenue growth, and the recovery of the consumer services industry is expected to continue. However, just like the bottlenecks facing consumption, it is difficult for residents' income growth and consumption propensity to quickly return to pre-pandemic levels, and the recovery of service sector production is also limited. Fluctuations in service sector production growth near a new central level lower than before the pandemic may become the norm. In addition, the recent localized resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic in China has dragged down the consumer services industry to some extent.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9e5a9b12c2284bd64603c6a1ec8cafc\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"553\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>External demand: Month-on-month momentum weakened.</b></p><p><b>In May this year, both the year-on-year growth rates of imports and exports maintained strong resilience.</b>Regarding exports, according to the General Administration of Customs, the export value (in US dollars) in May increased by 27.8% year-on-year (32.3% in the previous month), with a two-year compound annual growth rate of 11.1%. Although it is lower than the 16.8% in April, it is still in the high prosperity range since the second half of last year. In terms of imports, imports in May increased by 51.1% year-on-year (43.1% in the previous month), with a two-year compound annual growth rate of 12.4%, a slight increase from the previous month's 10.7%. The high level of imports reflects, on the one hand, the boom in domestic production and the appreciation of the RMB in terms of volume, and on the other hand, the impact of rising global raw material prices in terms of price. The trade surplus in May was $45.54 billion, up slightly from $42.86 billion the previous month.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c3d18e6d594319752d7c3377f7ab3a2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>However, judging from the month-on-month growth rate, the month-on-month momentum of exports in May has weakened.</b>Looking at the month-on-month growth rate of exports over the years, the export level in May is often higher than that in April, which shows that the month-on-month growth rate of exports in May is mostly positive. However, the export level in May this year was basically the same as in April, with a month-on-month growth rate of zero, which is lower than the seasonal performance in previous years. In addition,<b>The PMI for new export orders also fell below the boom-bust line, indicating that my country's export momentum is weakening month-on-month.</b>Specifically, the weakening marginal momentum of exports may be related to the following reasons: First, excessively high production costs and freight rates are compressing profit margins and suppressing enterprises' willingness to take orders; Second, supply bottlenecks in some industrial chains have affected global production activities; Third, the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate affects export competitiveness; Fourth, the epidemic situation in Europe and the United States has stabilized recently, production has recovered, and some orders have<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b2b52ca28c617ecdd633bcd52be0cca\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"409\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>In terms of export commodities, the two-year average growth rate of downstream consumer goods has begun to lag behind that of capital goods and intermediate goods, and this trend is expected to continue in the short term.</b>First, the continued improvement of the epidemic situation in Europe and the United States, the continuous increase in vaccination rates, the continuous recovery of industrial production capacity, and the continuous expansion of demand for intermediate and capital goods have driven China's export structure to move upstream in the industrial chain. Second, fiscal stimulus policies such as unemployment subsidies in developed countries are gradually being withdrawn, and residents' demand for consumer goods is showing a marginal weakening trend. Third, the pandemic situation in Asia and Latin America has improved marginally, and China's export substitution effect has weakened. Fourth, the appreciation of the RMB, port congestion, and rising freight costs have constrained commodity exports. Looking at the overseas imports corresponding to my country's exports, the import growth rate of the United States across three major categories also showed a trend of declining consumer goods while increasing capital goods and intermediate goods.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5deedacad3813d25464800f2a31fcd90\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Specifically, at the level of various consumer goods, exports of epidemic prevention materials, represented by textile yarns and medical devices, have continued to decline since the second half of last year.</b>Currently, its average year-on-year growth rate over the past two years is lower than the overall export growth rate. But<b>Pharmaceuticals represented by vaccines</b>Exports are showing a continuous upward trend, leading the export growth rate of all products.</p><p><b>The post-real estate cycle and electronics exports, which previously significantly boosted my country's exports, have begun to diverge. Export growth of post-real estate cyclical products has declined, but it is still higher than the overall export growth rate.</b>This will boost my country's exports. However, the export growth rate of electronic products (mobile phones and computers, etc.) has begun to decline sharply and is now lower than the overall export growth rate.<b>This indicates that the logic behind the overseas stay-at-home economy's purchase demand, replacement demand, and restocking demand driving my country's electronics exports has begun to fade.</b></p><p><b>Regarding automobile exports, although the global automotive industry chain is significantly limited by supply bottlenecks in components such as chips, my country's automobile and auto parts exports still maintain a high level of prosperity.</b>The reason may be that my country's exported automobile-related products are mainly non-chip auto parts, and the supply bottleneck in the automotive industry has a relatively limited impact on the export of such products. In addition,<b>The apparel, footwear, and bags market, temporarily suppressed by the pandemic, remains sluggish and has significant potential for recovery.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d21a4458aed45cf4b59a4e1df77fd4fb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"592\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>In terms of export destinations, my country's export growth to ASEAN was relatively leading in May, while the growth rate of exports to the United States showed signs of decline.</b>Firstly, the biggest characteristic of my country's export destinations in April and May was that the growth rate of my country's exports to the United States and Europe had begun to converge. Demand for goods stimulated by US fiscal policy had exceeded the trend for many months, and marginal momentum was showing weakness. Meanwhile, Europe was catching up with the United States in vaccination, the epidemic was gradually under control, and the European recovery fund was steadily advancing. In the future, the driving force of my country's export destinations may also shift from the United States to Europe. Secondly, due to proper social control, Southeast Asian countries controlled the epidemic well from last year to March this year, and the resumption of work and production increased the demand for my country's exports. However, due to the lag in vaccination progress, Southeast Asian countries cannot achieve herd immunity in the short term. The spillover of the epidemic in India has led to another outbreak of the epidemic in Southeast Asian countries since May with rapid momentum. In June, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia and other countries successively implemented lockdown or national lockdown policies, which will once again hinder the recovery process of my country's manufacturing industry, and the growth rate of my country's exports to Southeast Asian countries may be disrupted in the future.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb46f2eaf425805e142d127423b3e2d4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>my country's exports still face supporting factors in the short term, and a decline in the medium term is unlikely to be avoided.</b>In the short term, firstly, the ongoing recovery of developed economies such as Europe and the United States will continue to support my country's external demand; Secondly, some Southeast Asian countries have initiated lockdowns due to the recurrence of the epidemic, which has supported my country's export substitution. Third, as the resumption of work in Europe and the United States gradually improves the pressure on the supply chain, the backlog of transportation and container demand is gradually being digested, and freight rates are expected to enter a downward trend. However, the decline in overseas commodity demand and the recovery of production capacity in the second half of the year, coupled with the narrowing of the output gap, are detrimental to domestic exports.<b>We expect that June and August this year may be the relative peak of my country's export levels, and the export levels may decline to a controllable extent after the fourth quarter. However, due to the high base last year, the year-on-year growth rate may turn negative. In this situation, domestic demand needs to be moderately hedged.</b></p><p><h3><b>Counter-cyclical domestic demand: Resilience and constraints coexist</b></h3><b>Real Estate: Data shows three major divergences</b></p><p><b>Real estate investment has dropped slightly from its peak. From January to May this year, real estate development investment accumulated 18.3% year-on-year, with a compound annual growth rate of 8.6% over the past two years. We estimate that the compound annual growth rate over the past two years in May was 9%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points compared to April. In terms of structure, there are three major differentiations:</b></p><p><b>First, the front-end is weak and the back-end is strong.</b>The two-year compound annual growth rates of land acquisition and new construction starts in May were -16.9% and -1.9%, respectively. With financing constraints coupled with tightening real estate market regulations, real estate companies' front-end investment remained sluggish. Although April saw the first round of land supply peak of the year, the growth rate of land transactions in April and May was still negative. The growth rate of completed floor area rose sharply in May, with a two-year compound annual growth rate of 8.2%. Since 2017, there has been a continuous positive gap between construction starts and completions.<b>A wave of completions in the past two years is highly probable and will be a major lead in real estate-related transactions.</b></p><p><b>Second, weak financing and strong sales.</b>In May, the two-year compound annual growth rates of domestic loans and sales receipts (deposit advance receipts + personal mortgages) were 0.6% and 16.7% respectively, showing a significant difference. Since the \"three red lines\" were implemented, real estate companies have seen a weakening of external financing, while their reliance on sales revenue has become significantly stronger.<b>Therefore, the timing of the sales turnaround requires close attention;</b></p><p><b>Third, weak construction and high prices.</b>Real estate investment can be fitted by construction area, PPI (reflecting construction intensity per unit of construction area), and land acquisition cost. Due to weak new construction starts and improved completion rates, the growth rate of existing construction area has been declining since the beginning of the year, but real estate investment remains resilient.<b>Rising building material prices have contributed significantly to nominal real estate investment this year.</b></p><p><b>Looking ahead, mortgage quota controls and strict investigations into illegal loans will cool down the real estate market, and real estate investment may show a gradual decline in the second half of the year.</b>Macro-prudential policies in the real estate market (such as mortgage concentration management) may control the amount of mortgage loans in the second half of the year. At the same time, the illegal entry of consumer loans and business loans into the real estate market is also being strictly investigated to curb residents from increasing leverage and transferring funds to real estate companies.<b>The growth of household loans has begun to show a turning point. Real estate sales and investment trends are inevitably weakening, but due to the continued tightening of monetary policy and the slow rise in mortgage rates, there is no risk of a slowdown in real estate sales and investment.</b>The \"two concentrations\" of land supply in key cities may lead to increased fluctuations in investment data and lower gross profit margins for projects. The Shanghai model is becoming a hot topic of discussion in the market.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca66050e47d9551b7a0e55b46f9fecdd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/155caf8f6eae867084efcf4c9af5013e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Infrastructure: Hovering at low levels, with slight improvement in the second half of the year.</b></p><p><b>Infrastructure investment remained low. From January to May this year, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of infrastructure investment was 11.8%, with a compound annual growth rate of 2.6% over the past two years. We estimate that the compound annual growth rate for the past two years in May was 2.8%, which is 0.4 percentage points faster than in April.</b></p><p>The slight acceleration in infrastructure investment may be driven by the accelerated supply of special-purpose bonds, but it is still weaker than the growth rate during the peak construction season in March this year. On the one hand, as part of a combination of measures to stabilize prices, the State Council executive meeting on May 19 required the curbing of high-energy-consuming projects, and recently many local governments have cut planned investment projects for high energy consumption and high energy consumption. On the other hand, affected by the new regulations of stock exchanges in late April, the review conditions for the issuance of local government financing vehicles (LGFV) bonds became stricter and the use of raised funds was restricted, resulting in negative growth in LGFV financing in May, which dragged down the source of infrastructure funds.</p><p><b>Infrastructure investment may provide a moderate bottom line in the second half of the year.</b>On the one hand, consumption and manufacturing have not yet recovered to their ideal state, while export orders have begun to weaken and the impact of high-pressure real estate regulation is gradually emerging. Infrastructure needs to be supported, and some restrictive policies may be moderately relaxed. On the other hand, the supply of government bonds was slow in the first half of this year, but there is a lot of room for improvement in the second half, so the fiscal policy is expected to make subsequent efforts to support infrastructure investment.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/409ae828dc2b1173cb87931306650b41\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a02ac0b9afac27d4e2dd00276d70f21b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Domestic demand is pro-cyclical: gradually improving amidst resistance.</b></p><p><b>Manufacturing: Investment in the midstream equipment industry is accelerating</b></p><p><b>Manufacturing investment has recovered moderately. From January to May this year, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of manufacturing investment was 20.4%, with a two-year compound annual growth rate of 0.6%, turning from negative to positive. We estimate that the two-year compound annual growth rate in May will be 3.7%, which is 0.3 percentage points faster than in April. At the industry level, upstream investment growth is relatively leading, while midstream and downstream sectors continue to catch up:</b>(1) This year, the overall investment growth rate of upstream industries is leading, which matches the high prosperity of upstream industries such as prices, profits and inventory replenishment; (2) The start of the manufacturing investment cycle is the core driving force for the equipment industry, and investment in the midstream equipment industry has accelerated rapidly recently; (3) The pharmaceutical and communications electronics industries are beneficiaries of the epidemic, and they stand out among downstream industries in terms of profitability and investment. (4) Other downstream consumer industries performed relatively poorly, which is consistent with the recurring pandemic and the slow recovery of domestic consumption. (5) In recent years, the automotive industry has gone from damaged demand to damaged supply, and capital expenditure has recovered slowly.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/030e056c8487307106328e55069441ac\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1041\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>What are the future trends of manufacturing investment?</b>In our report \"Manufacturing Investment in the Three-Tier Cycle\" published on June 24, 2021, we analyzed and judged the trend of the manufacturing industry from the perspectives of long, medium and short cycles and the meso-industry. In summary, in the long run, my country's manufacturing investment has entered a stable period, with single-digit growth being the norm;<b>In the medium term, the Jugra cycle began in the second half of last year and is still in an upward phase. In the second half of this year, as the proportion of domestic demand in the demand structure increases and profit distribution tilts towards the middle and lower reaches, enterprises' willingness to invest is expected to continue to improve. In the short term, the recurring pandemic in China may suppress the pace of investment, but it is not enough to change the cyclical recovery momentum of investment. However, the recent resurgence of the epidemic in Israel may raise concerns about the effectiveness of vaccines, and it remains to be seen whether it will suppress corporate investment willingness from a confidence perspective.</b>From a meso-level perspective, the growth rate of investment in upstream industries is currently relatively ahead, and the acceleration of investment in the second half of the year may be concentrated in the midstream and downstream industries. Investment in the traditional Chinese medicine and communications electronics industries is expected to maintain a high level of prosperity.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b10d2368e367ed0551d6da000e7d55e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfa1a7308a83c60fded97cd970ec2ec2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Consumption: Labor Day boosts social economy, completion wave helps post-real estate cycle</b></p><p><b>Total retail sales of consumer goods in May were 12.4% year-on-year, lower than market expectations (Wind's consensus forecast was 12.8%), with a two-year compound annual growth rate of 4.5%, 0.2 percentage points faster than the previous value. The seasonally adjusted month-on-month ratios for April and May were 0.25% and 0.81%, respectively.</b>Consumption accelerated, but structural differentiation increased. Looking at the two-year compound annual growth rate of sub-categories, social economy consumption accelerated across the board, mainly due to the boost from Labor Day. Consumption improved significantly after the real estate development cycle, with home appliance consumption accelerating by 5.2 percentage points, benefiting from accelerated real estate completion. The significant decline in automobile and communication equipment consumption was mainly due to a shortage of chips on the supply side constraining demand. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) expects that automobile production and sales data in June will remain pessimistic and will ease in the fourth quarter.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0ab17ad04d4af4693ad60de157b7d35\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>How should we view the current level of consumption recovery? First, total consumption remains weak, with a growth rate of about 50% of pre-pandemic levels.</b>Looking at the two-year compound annual growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in May this year, the 4.5% growth rate is only about 50% of that before the pandemic; The two-year compound annual growth rate of per capita consumption expenditure nationwide in the first quarter of this year was 3.9%, far lower than the 8.5% for the whole of 2019.<b>Secondly, service consumption is particularly sluggish.</b>The two-year compound annual growth rate of national catering revenue in April and May this year was only 0.4% and 1.3%, respectively. According to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, the number of domestic travelers during this year's May Day holiday was 103.2% of the same period before the pandemic (on a comparable basis), while tourism revenue was only 77% of the same period before the pandemic. During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the number of domestic tourists nationwide recovered to 98.7% of the same period before the pandemic on a comparable basis, but domestic tourism revenue only recovered to 74.8% of the same period before the pandemic, indicating that service sector consumption is still constrained.</p><p><b>How should we understand the slow recovery in</b>Consumption can be broken down into disposable income x consumption propensity x consumption scenarios. ① Residents' income generally follows the order of \"corporate profit recovery -> job market improvement -> residents' income growth\"; ② Consumption propensity is affected by factors such as the level of economic prosperity, precautionary savings, wealth inequality, and the real estate cycle. Among them, the willingness to consume lags behind the recovery of the economy, which determines that consumption is a post-cyclical variable of the economy. ③ Consumption scenarios are related to factors such as the pandemic environment, vaccination, government control measures, and car chip shortages. Based on this, the current consumption recovery is insufficient.<b>First, the job market has not fully recovered, and the growth rate of residents' income is still lower than before the pandemic; Second, due to insufficient economic prosperity, a precautionary savings mentality, widening income inequality, and a rising real estate cycle, social consumption propensity has declined. Third, due to localized recurrences of the epidemic and insufficient vaccination rates, consumption scenarios still need to recover, contact-based consumption such as catering is significantly insufficient, and automobiles are short of chips.</b></p><p><b>How can we estimate the length and depth of the subsequent consumption recovery? In the short term, the localized recurrence of the epidemic may have a significant impact on consumption. Weak consumption data for the Dragon Boat Festival and \"618\" shopping festivals has already been reflected, but the sustainability of the impact is expected to be limited. In the second half of the year, with income growth, declining precautionary savings, cooling real estate sales, and increasing vaccination rates, consumption will remain a gradual improvement trend. It is expected that this round of consumption recovery will last at least until the first half of next year, and the steady growth rate of consumption will not reach the pre-pandemic level, mainly because the recovery of consumption propensity is slow and the pandemic crisis has caused systemic damage.</b>The specific reasons are as follows:</p><p>① Corporate profit growth may peak in the first half of this year. Based on experience, the recovery of residents' income growth will continue until the fourth quarter of this year, but the growth rate is expected to be difficult to reach the level before the pandemic (2019). The loss of growth rate is due to the structural damage to the job market after the pandemic and the systemic decline in the potential economic growth rate. ② The recovery of consumption propensity will be driven by improved economic conditions and a cooling of the real estate market, but will be relatively delayed. It is expected to take until the first half of next year. Since the economy and housing prices after stabilization will find it difficult to return to pre-pandemic levels, consumption propensity will also find it difficult to return to pre-pandemic levels. ③ It is expected that constraints on consumption scenarios will be basically lifted by the end of this year. Recently, domestic vaccination has accelerated, and it is expected that the vaccination rate will reach the standard of herd immunity in the fourth quarter, at which time the impact of the scenario on consumption will become weak. And<b>Mutated viruses escape vaccine immunity, and the recurring epidemics are the main risks restricting the recovery of consumption.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f531935f1fe921affab113a7395d33f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40532eb5c451d2649616040dd80a3a87\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"406\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>The highlights of the consumption recovery in the second half of the year are expected to be the recovery of social economy consumption and the continuation of post-real estate cycle consumption.</b>First, social economy consumption is still a weakness. Although the domestic epidemic has recurred recently, vaccination is also accelerating, and restorative demand is expected in the second half of the year, including in the fields of leisure services, air passenger transport, and clothing. Secondly, the high sales temperature in the domestic real estate market has continued for some time, and the probability of a wave of completions in the real estate market is also relatively high. Consumption in the later cycle is expected to perform well. Automobile consumption (especially new energy vehicles) has benefited from the pandemic and low-carbon transition policies, but faces supply constraints (chip shortage) in the short term.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b6797f1aad65029674a570cc4387361\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Employment: The unemployment rate has returned to pre-pandemic levels, but the unemployment rate among young people is rising.</b></p><p><b>In May, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.0%, down 0.1 percentage points from April and down 0.9 percentage points from the same period last year. From January to May, 5.74 million new urban jobs were created nationwide, achieving 52.2% of the annual target.</b>The unemployment rate has basically returned to pre-pandemic levels, and the completion rate of new urban jobs has exceeded half. While the pressure to stabilize employment may not seem great, structural concerns still exist. In May, the surveyed unemployment rates for the 16-24 age group and the 25-59 age group were 13.8% (13.6% in April) and 4.4% (4.6% in April), respectively. With the overall unemployment rate and the unemployment rate for the 25-59 age group declining, the unemployment rate for the 16-24 age group rose compared to the previous month, indicating that employment challenges remain for young people, and attention should be paid to the pressure of the subsequent graduation season.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/753064749358ad5a59db6f68af7c640d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Inflation: PPI-CPI scissors gap hits new high</b></p><p><b>The CPI rose moderately, but domestic demand did not reach its ideal level.</b></p><p><b>The CPI in May was 1.3% year-on-year, up 0.4 percentage points, with a carryover effect accounting for 0.9%. The CPI fell 0.2% month-on-month, unchanged from the seasonal average (the historical average for the same period was -0.2%). The core CPI rose 0.2 percentage points to 0.9% year-on-year.</b>The CPI increase remained moderate and lower than market expectations. This was due to two factors: firstly, the decline in pork prices suppressed the growth, and secondly, the slow recovery of consumption. However, due to the boost in holiday travel demand and the passing on of local costs, the core CPI remained at a higher level than the same period in history.</p><p><b>In terms of items:</b></p><p><b>In May, the food CPI rose 0.3% year-on-year, 1 percentage point, and -1.7% month-on-month (the historical average for the same period was -1.1%).</b>(1) The decline in pork prices is still significant, mainly due to the continuous recovery of production capacity and the expectation of a decline in pork prices, which has led to panicked slaughter by farmers. The Ministry of Agriculture expects the number of live pigs to recover to normal levels in June and July this year, and the number of pigs slaughtered to recover to normal levels from October onwards. It is worth noting that due to the decline in pork prices and the rise in feed prices, pig farming has entered a loss-making phase, which will dampen farmers' enthusiasm for restocking. (2) Fruit and vegetable prices fell second, mainly due to the seasonal rebound in supply. However, fruit and vegetable prices are still at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history, which may be due to increased production and transportation costs. It is expected that with the arrival of the main flood season, vegetable prices will turn from falling to rising, while the successive arrival of fresh summer fruits will push fruit prices down further. (3) Aquatic products and eggs saw significant increases, and the National Bureau of Statistics explained that both were affected by the increase in feed prices.</p><p><b>In May, the non-food CPI rose 1.6% year-on-year, 0.3 percentage points, and 0.2% month-on-month (the historical average for the same period was 0.1%).</b>Among them, the month-on-month increases in tourism, transportation, other goods and services (including hotels), clothing, and household appliances were stronger than the seasonal increases. This was due to two main reasons: first, the recovery in prices for transportation/travel agencies/hotels, driven by travel demand during Labor Day; and second, the increase in raw material prices, with electrical appliances being greatly affected by costs. The month-on-month increases in daily necessities and healthcare products other than household appliances were weaker than seasonal, indicating that domestic consumption has not recovered to its ideal state.</p><p><b>Looking ahead, the CPI pressure this year is not significant, and the fourth quarter may reach a high point for the year, which can be controlled within 3%. The core CPI is likely to rise month by month this year as service consumption recovers and manufacturing costs are passed on, and is expected to rise to nearly 2% by the end of the year.</b>Specifically, the CPI for the second half of the year is analyzed using four factors. Among them, the service industry has a clear trend of recovery in volume and price, but the pace is slow. Although the recent epidemic in Guangzhou and Shenzhen has been disrupted, it has also accelerated vaccination, which is expected to reduce the risk of subsequent epidemics. Core commodity prices gradually pass on costs as consumption improves, lagging behind at least six months after upstream raw material prices peak. Oil price trends remain uncertain. In the short term, the easing of the pandemic in Europe and the United States and improved travel have boosted crude oil demand. At the same time, shale oil production capacity is still lacking, while supply elasticity is expected to improve in the second half of the year. Hog production capacity continues to recover, and low pork prices coupled with a high base will remain the main factors suppressing inflation in the second half of the year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0270abbcb83c3c4ede6166a201bb3d54\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>PPI continues to rise, with domestically priced ferrous metals leading the gains.</b></p><p><b>The PPI rose 2.2 percentage points to 9% year-on-year in May, with a carryover effect accounting for approximately 2.8%. The PPI rose 1.6% month-on-month, an increase of 0.7 percentage points, reaching another historical high.</b>The month-on-month increase in upstream means of production widened, and domestically priced ferrous metals outperformed globally priced non-ferrous metals and crude oil. Downstream industrial consumer goods continued to see significant increases, especially durable consumer goods, which were greatly affected by rising raw material prices and whose demand improved rapidly, saw a relatively significant cost shift.</p><p><b>By item: In May, the PPI for means of production increased by 2.1% month-on-month, an increase of 0.9 percentage points, and by 12% year-on-year.</b>By commodity, (1) ferrous metals (5.1%) led the gains. Recently, domestic real estate construction has been weak, while crude steel production has grown rapidly and inventories are higher than seasonal. The fundamentals do not support the rise in ferrous metals, and the main reason for the price increase is still the expectation of supply contraction. (2) Non-ferrous metals (4.1%) also saw a significant increase. Recently, the high level of the epidemic in South America and the strike by copper miners in Chile have affected supply. At the same time, the epidemic in Europe and the United States has subsided and the manufacturing industry has recovered, and the supply-demand mismatch is still unfolding. (3) Energy prices (2.8%) turned from falling to rising, which is related to the recovery of travel in Europe and the United States. In addition, the recent weakening of the US dollar is a common factor driving up commodity prices.<b>The PPI for consumer goods was 0.1% month-on-month, unchanged from the previous value, and 0.5% year-on-year.</b>Among them, daily necessities saw the largest increases, while durable consumer goods saw a cumulative increase in three months, reaching a new high in nearly ten years, indicating that cost shifting continues to be reflected.</p><p><b>Looking ahead, the PPI trend this year will depend on changes in international commodity prices and base factors. The resonance of these two factors in the second quarter led to a steep rise in PPI. The rebound in the base in the second half of the year is obvious. The rise in commodities is key and is expected to converge quarter-on-quarter. This corresponds to the PPI peaking in the middle of the year. It may still remain high in the third quarter. The pressure will gradually ease in the fourth quarter, and the central level for the whole year may fall to around 6%.</b>Our main logic for judging commodity prices is as follows: First, the inflection point of global liquidity (M2) occurred in March, about a quarter ahead of the inflection point of commodities. Secondly, the stable pandemic situation in the United States, coupled with overdrawn demand for durable goods, will lead to a shift in consumption from goods to services in the second half of the year. Third, the suppressive effects of domestic real estate policies may become apparent in the second half of the year; Fourth, vaccination rates in resource-rich countries are continuously increasing, and the supply-demand mismatch will alleviate over time; Fifth, the United States has a relatively advanced vaccination program, and expectations of economic opening up and the Federal Reserve's exit from QE are rising in the second half of the year. The US dollar may experience a period of strength, which will also suppress the rise in commodity prices. However, attention still needs to be paid to the progress of the new US fiscal stimulus plan, the design of domestic carbon reduction and production restriction policies, and upside risks such as the boost to oil prices caused by the opening of the borders between Europe and the United States.</p><p><b>The PPI-CPI scissors gap has reached a new high. Every time the scissors gap breaks through the previous high in history, the PPI has peaked and fallen, while the CPI, especially for non-food products, has been on an upward trend for more than six months to absorb cost pressures. The story of each round is different. Currently, the PPI is passing its peak (May-June), but it may still be operating at a high level in the third quarter and fall back later. The CPI faces two positive and negative factors: rising costs and weak domestic demand. The rise is slow, and the scissors gap may converge slowly.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78ffba024dd7d33c2c8a5ec459cbec39\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc31b51e7cb05fde90a22372f598ce4b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"380\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Finance: Local contraction of credit is the main feature</b></p><p><b>Characteristic 1: Stable total volume and differentiated main bodies.</b>In May, social financing reached 1.92 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.27 trillion yuan, slightly lower than market expectations. The year-on-year growth rate of outstanding social financing was 11%, down 0.7 percentage points from April. Excluding government bonds, the growth rate was 9.9%, down 0.5 percentage points. First, the high base from March to June last year; second, the constraints of local government financing vehicle (LGFV) real estate financing policies dragged down the volume of corporate bonds and non-standard debt. However, on-balance-sheet credit is not weak and has a good structure, with strong medium- and long-term corporate loans and a surge in bill loans, indicating policy support for financing for the real economy. Overall, the credit environment differs significantly among different entities. The manufacturing sector has better access to financing, while the financing conditions for local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) and real estate are tight, which is still a characteristic of localized credit contraction.</p><p><b>Characteristic 2: Corporate bond volume is decreasing, while government bond volume is accelerating.</b>Looking at the departmental structure:<b>(1) Enterprise side</b>Medium- and long-term lending remained strong due to two factors: first, the continued promotion of credit support policies for the manufacturing sector; second, the State Council executive meeting on May 19th deployed measures to increase credit support for inclusive micro and small enterprises; and third, the recent acceleration in the issuance of special bonds may boost infrastructure supporting loans. Corporate non-standard financing is still affected by policies such as regulation of financing trusts and rectification of wealth management products. Since the beginning of the year, the stock of trust loans has maintained a downward trend of about 100 billion yuan per month. Corporate bond financing decreased by 421.5 billion yuan year-on-year, marking the first negative growth since May 2018, mainly due to the reduced volume of local government financing vehicle (LGFV) bond financing.<b>(2) Residential side</b>Loans increased by 623.2 billion yuan in May, a decrease of 81.1 billion yuan year-on-year. Among them, the narrowing of new short-term loans and medium- and long-term loans is due to the weak crackdown on illegal consumer loans and actual consumption activity, the marginal convergence of medium- and long-term loans, and the possibility of peaking real estate sales in this round.<b>(3) Government side</b>In May, government bond financing reached 670.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 466.1 billion yuan year-on-year. The base was high in the same period last year, and the actual amount was significantly higher than in the first four months of this year and the same period in previous years, indicating that the pace of supply had accelerated significantly.</p><p><b>There are three key points to consider when issuing local government bonds:</b>Firstly, the Ministry of Finance recently allocated a local government debt limit of 3,467.6 billion yuan for this year, which is 202.4 billion yuan less than the budget allocation, triggering discussions about reducing the limit. In fact, it is customary for local government debt quotas to be allocated in batches throughout the year. However, the annual quota has not yet been allocated by the middle of the year, which may reveal the possibility of dissatisfaction with the total issuance for the year, mainly due to the strict constraints on project approval. Secondly, on June 7, Finance Minister Liu Kun mentioned that appropriately relaxing the time limit for the issuance of special bonds is mainly to improve the efficiency of bond fund utilization and avoid stagnation. This means that there may be no clear schedule requirements this year, and there may be issuance at the end of the year. However, according to micro-surveys, supply will remain relatively concentrated in the third quarter, which may be related to the year-end fiscal audit surplus and worsening construction weather conditions. Third, this year's special bond project has been well-prepared in advance, and it is expected that funds will be disbursed quickly, weakening liquidity disturbances, while the feedback lag at the economic level may also be shortened.</p><p><b>Feature 3: The gap between M2 and M1 growth rates is widening, and non-bank deposits have increased significantly.</b>In May, the year-on-year growth rate of M2 rose to 8.3% from 8.1% in April, while that of M1 fell from 6.2% to 6.1%, with the gap between the two growth rates widening slightly. Social financing growth slowed in May, but M2 growth increased. This is because government bonds and non-standard deposits contributed significantly to social financing in May last year, but these two did not directly generate M2, while deposit growth in May this year was mainly contributed by non-bank deposits. Specifically, the monthly increase in household, corporate, and fiscal deposits all decreased compared to last year. The decrease in corporate and fiscal deposits was mainly due to a high base and less government bond issuance compared to the same period last year. Non-bank deposits have historically fluctuated significantly, and the sharp increase in the current month may be due to two reasons: First, banks generally transitioned through products such as money market funds against the backdrop of asset shortages and weak credit demand, leading to an expansion in the scale of non-bank assets; second, the growth in non-bank loans generated a large number of non-bank deposits.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f8602fe9aecaa90b38aa63eba678f4b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Market Implications</b></p><p><b>From a macroeconomic perspective, economic growth will gradually slow down, but will be more balanced. Regarding inflation, the CPI is under control, the PPI is likely to remain high in the third quarter, and the pressure will gradually ease in the fourth quarter, with the annual central level likely to fall around 6%. In terms of policy, domestic monetary policy will prioritize stability, while fiscal policy will be implemented later. The Federal Reserve's exit from QE will be a key focus in the third quarter.</b></p><p><b>Bond market: Short-term trading policies > liquidity > supply and demand > fundamentals. The fundamental trend determines that the bond market will fluctuate narrowly, an upward trend is an opportunity, and the curve will flatten slightly.</b></p><p><b>Stock Market: Profit-driven is not over yet, pay attention to industry rotation under distribution changes.</b>We expect the PPI to remain high in the third quarter, unchanging the pro-cyclical logic driven by profits. However, at the same time, commodity prices have peaked and the PPI-CPI scissors gap has entered a convergence phase. Profit distribution will tilt towards midstream and downstream industries, and the midstream equipment industry may usher in a turnaround under the Jugra cycle and improved profit margins. The downstream consumer sector is focusing on national brands under the recovery of the social economy, as well as post-cycle consumer goods under the wave of bulk consumption and real estate completion.</p><p><b>Commodities: The commodity boom may have passed, and policy disruptions are a risk.  </b>We expect the current commodity boom to have passed, and there is little room for further price increases in the second half of the year. First, the global liquidity (M2) inflection point occurred in March, about a quarter ahead of the commodity inflection point. Secondly, the stable pandemic situation in the United States, coupled with overdrawn demand for durable goods, will lead to a shift in consumption from goods to services in the second half of the year. Third, the suppressive effects of domestic real estate policies may become apparent in the second half of the year; Fourth, vaccination rates in resource-rich countries are continuously increasing, and the supply-demand mismatch will alleviate over time; Fifth, the United States has a relatively advanced vaccination program, and expectations of economic opening up and the Federal Reserve's exit from QE are rising in the second half of the year. The US dollar may experience a period of strength, which will also suppress the rise in commodity prices. However, it is still necessary to pay attention to the progress of the new US fiscal stimulus plan and the design of domestic carbon reduction and production restriction policies. The opening of the borders between Europe and the United States will boost oil prices, which is the main upside risk for commodity prices in the second half of the year.</p><p><b>Exchange rate: We maintain our assessment of the the US Dollar Index range of 90-94, with the pressure on RMB appreciation easing in stages and fluctuating in both directions.</b>On the one hand, from a fundamental perspective, the marginal momentum of vaccination and economic recovery in Europe is catching up with the United States, and the strength of the euro is expected to suppress the dollar to some extent in the short term. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve has released hawkish statements, and the normalization of US monetary policy is gradually beginning, providing strong support for the dollar. The dollar is expected to maintain a volatile and strong trend. Regarding the RMB, the positive factors are that my country's economy will continue to lead the world, and the current account and capital account surpluses brought about by strong exports and the opening of the domestic capital market are expected to continue. The negative factors are the impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the strong US dollar. Overall, the appreciation pressure on the RMB is expected to ease in stages and maintain two-way fluctuations within a wide range.</p><p><b>Risk Warning</b></p><p><b>Safety production disturbances before July 1st:</b>Safety production requirements are high before Daqing, which may affect industrial and construction production activities in the short term.</p><p><b>Mutated novel coronavirus escapes vaccine protection:</b>Israel as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">the whole people</a>A typical example of immunity is the recent resurgence of the epidemic, and the Delta+ variant of the novel coronavirus may evade the protection of existing vaccines. Vaccine failure can have a confidence impact on the global recovery and corporate investment.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/472216\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/082208e3c37780dd55878056410ffa43","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/472216","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2146429887","content_text":"复苏中的韧性与阻力\n5月经济数据呈现五大特征：一是生产保持平稳、需求边际弱化，产出缺口收敛；二是需求结构趋向内外平衡、顺周期力量缓慢改善。以两年复合增速看，5月出口与地产增速边际下滑、消费和制造业投资小幅加快，但结构变化幅度不大；三是服务业加快恢复。在加长版劳动节提振下，餐饮住宿等生活性服务业量价齐升，但近期广东疫情再添扰动，端午消费表现不佳；四是PPI-CPI剪刀差创新高，但PPI高点可能已出现；五是信用局部收缩的特征明显，制造业融资可得性较好，而城投、地产等融资条件偏紧，政府融资开始加快。\n中观层面看：国内疫苗接种加速下，医药行业生产与投资保持高景气度；缺芯片影响下，汽车行业产销与资本开支均有所回落；中游设备行业内外需求均不弱，但利润率仍存压；劳动节提振下，社交经济消费全面提速；竣工潮带动下，地产后周期消费明显改善。\n上半年的组合是经济复苏、通胀上行+货币稳+财政紧+局部信用收缩，下半年的组合预计是经济动能放缓+PPI和CPI收敛+货币稳+财政有所为+信贷条件放松。4-5月经济较一季度总体有所改善，出口和地产依旧是主力，不过近期居民信贷增速见顶和出口订单下滑或已暗示拐点，下半年回落的速度是关键。消费和制造业逐步复苏、但相对缺乏弹性，下半年还有待财政发力，有赖基建托底经济。PPI在二季度加速赶顶后，下半年通胀焦虑有望缓解，而内需不理想、社融增速下行，预计货币政策不收紧，信贷条件有所放松。\n短期由于国内疫情反复、汽车等行业缺芯、中下游成本压力以及“七一”前安全生产等多重扰动，6月经济表现可能不佳。中期来看，经济的下行风险除了地产和出口下滑外，一是大宗涨价持续性如果超预期，可能引致经济走向“类滞胀”，而政策面临两难；二是降碳政策的设计和执行，如果年内强制压降钢铁等产量，对通胀、生产和投资均有不利影响；三是中美关系的不确定性；四是美联储转向节奏早于预期，国内货币政策届时面临外部压力；五是变异新冠病毒脱离现存疫苗保护，将负面影响全球复苏前景以及企业家投资信心。而上行风险主要在于财政力度与海外补库存力度超预期，带来基建弹性和出口韧性。生产：上游回落、中游强劲、下游分化\n今年5月工业增加值同比增长8.8%，两年复合增长6.6%，较4月6.8%小幅下降，季调后环比增长0.52%，与4月持平，表现较为平稳。结构层面，5月供给侧的行业特征与4月相比并未发生显著改变，整体呈现出上游回落、中游强劲、下游分化的局面：\n上游回落：上游行业表现基本平稳，与4月相比仅在窄幅区间内小幅变化，但相比去年下半年至今年3月的生产小高潮已明显回落。环保限产尽管边际放松但难以反转，房地产投资韧性维持，大宗商品价格高位震荡，上游行业面临的内外部环境未有明显转向。产量方面，发电量两年平均同比增速由上月的5.5%小幅提高至6.1%。原煤、钢材、有色金属和水泥产量的两年平均增速较上月小幅降低，乙烯产量两年复合同比增速略有提高。\n中游强劲：中游行业方面，通用设备、专用设备、仪器仪表和电气机械等中游设备类行业生产较4月小幅下滑但仍在所有行业中处于领先水平，与制造业投资走高的趋势一致。汽车制造业增加值两年平均增速较4月小幅收窄，芯片短缺的影响依然严峻，供给端影响仍存。产量方面，金属切削机床、工业机器人、交流电动机等中游设备类产品的产量增速维持高景气度，而汽车产量增速相对受限。\n下游分化：下游行业的结构表现与上月基本一致，机电产品在出口支撑下保持强势，基本与上月持平；疫苗制造推动医药制造业增加值的两年平均增速达到16.9%，在所有制造业行业中最为景气；纺织相关的纺织业、服装服饰和皮制品行业的表现依旧弱势。产量方面，集成电路和电子计算机整机产量在高位有所下滑，而手机的产量增速维持在低位。工业生产方面，5月总量增速和结构均与上月基本一致。我们认为，供给端原材料涨价有筑顶迹象但尚未反转，环保限产边际放松但不会转向，我国工业生产在走过高点阶段之后，短期总量和结构波动料不会太大，出口链条、中游设备、医药制造业的强势或短期维持。但需要关注七一前的安全生产政策可能对生产端尤其是建筑业产业链、化工等行业产生负面影响。中期来看，供应链短缺的影响料持续至三季度，出口链条在年底存在弱化可能，消费修复不及预期，料对生产形成负面影响，工业生产在中期面临更多的负面因素。\n服务业方面，5月劳动节提振下，生活性服务业呈现积极复苏势头。据5月服务业PMI数据，住宿、铁路与航空运输等出行相关行业PMI连续两个月高于65%，零售、餐饮和文娱等消费相关行业PMI高于58%，反映生活性服务业积极复苏势头。后续服务业修复的正面因素在于疫苗接种的稳步推进以及收入增长，生活性服务业的修复料继续推进。但和消费面临的瓶颈一样，居民收入增速和消费倾向难以快速回到疫情前水平，服务业生产的修复同样受限，服务业生产增速保持在一个低于疫情前的新中枢水平附近波动或成为常态。此外，近期国内疫情局部反复，对生活性服务业形成一定拖累。外需：环比动能有所弱化\n今年5月进出口同比增速均保持较强的韧性。出口方面，据海关总署，5月出口金额（美元计）同比增长27.8%（前值32.3%），两年复合增长11.1%，虽较4月的16.8%有所回落，仍处于去年下半年以来的高景气区间。进口方面，5月进口金额同比增长51.1%（前值43.1%），两年复合增长12.4%，较前值10.7%小幅上行。进口维持高位，一方面反映了国内生产端景气与人民币升值在量方面的推动，另一方面体现了全球大宗原材料涨价对价方面的影响。5月贸易顺差为455.4亿美元，较上月的428.6亿美元略有上升。但从环比增速来看，5月出口的环比动能已经有所弱化。从历年的出口环比增速来看，5月的出口水平值往往高于4月，表现为5月出口环比多为正值。但今年5月的出口水平值与4月基本持平，环比增速为零，低于往年的季节性表现。此外，PMI新出口订单同样降至枯荣线下方，说明从环比来看，我国出口动能正趋于弱化。具体来看，出口边际动能弱化或与以下原因有关：一是生产成本与运价过高压缩利润率，抑制企业接单意愿；二是部分产业链出现供给瓶颈，影响全球生产活动；三是人民币汇率升值影响出口竞争力；四是近期欧美疫情稳定、生产恢复，部分订单回流。出口商品层面，下游消费品的两年平均增速已经开始弱于资本品和中间品，预计短期内维持该趋势。一是欧美疫情持续改善，疫苗接种率不断提高，工业产能持续恢复，对中间品和资本品的需求不断扩大，带动中国出口结构向产业链上游移动。二是发达国家失业补贴等财政刺激政策逐渐退出，居民对消费品的需求存在边际弱化倾向。三是亚洲和拉美疫情边际改善，中国出口替代效应弱化。四是人民币升值和港口拥堵及运费上涨制约了商品出口。从我国出口另一端对应的海外进口来看，美国分三大品类的进口增速也呈现出消费品下滑而资本品和中间品提高的走势。具体到各类消费品层面，由纺织纱线和医疗器械代表的防疫物资出口自去年下半年以来持续回落，当前其两年平均同比增速已低于整体出口增速。但以疫苗为代表的医药品出口正呈现持续上涨的态势，在所有产品的出口增速中处于领先水平。\n前期对我国出口形成较大拉动的地产后周期和电子产品出口则已经开始有所分化。地产后周期产品出口增速有所下滑，但仍高于整体出口增速，对我国出口形成拉动。但电子产品（手机和电脑等）的出口增速开始大幅回落，当前已低于整体出口增速，说明海外宅经济购置需求、换机需求和补库需求拉动我国电子产品出口的逻辑已经开始有所消退。\n汽车出口方面，尽管全球汽车产业链受到芯片等零部件的供给瓶颈限制明显，但我国汽车及其零部件的出口仍然维持较高景气度，原因可能在于我国出口的汽车相关产品主要为非芯片类的汽车零部件，汽车行业的供给瓶颈对此类产品的出口影响相对有限。此外，受疫情暂时抑制的服饰鞋包仍然低迷，修复潜力较大。出口目的地层面，5月我国对东盟的出口增速相对领先，对美国出口增速现回落迹象。其一，4-5月，我国出口目的地呈现出的最大特征在于我国对美国和欧洲的出口增速已经开始收敛，美国财政刺激下的商品需求已经多月超出趋势性，边际动能显现乏力，而欧洲疫苗接种正实现对美国的追赶，疫情逐渐受控，欧洲复苏基金稳步推进，后续我国出口目的地的拉动也可能由美国向欧洲切换。其二，由于社交管控得当，东南亚国家从去年到今年三月疫情控制良好，复工复产提升了对我国出口品的需求，但是由于疫苗接种进度落后，东南亚国家短期无法实现群体免疫，印度疫情外溢导致5月以来东南亚各国疫情再度爆发且来势迅猛，6月越南、泰国、马来西亚等国先后实施封城或封国政策，制造业复苏进程将再次受阻，后续我国对东南亚国家的出口增速或受到扰动。我国出口短期仍存在支撑因素、中期退坡恐难避免。短期内，一是，欧美等发达经济体的复苏进行时，继续支撑我国外需；二是东南亚部分国家因为疫情反复而启动封锁，对我国出口替代形成支撑；三是欧美复工对供应链压力逐步改善，积压的运输和集装箱需求逐渐消化，运费料将进入下滑通道。但下半年海外商品需求退坡、产能恢复，产出缺口收窄对于国内出口偏不利。我们预计，今年6-8月或是我国出口水平值的相对高点，四季度后出口水平值或出现幅度可控的退坡，但由于去年高基数，同比增速不排除转负可能。这种情况下，内需方面需要适度对冲。\n内需逆周期：韧性与约束并存\n房地产：数据呈三大分化\n房地产投资高位略降，今年1-5月房地产开发投资累计同比18.3%，两年复合增长8.6%，我们测算5月两年复合增速为9%，较4月降速1.3个百分点。结构方面呈现三大分化：\n一是前端弱、后端强。5月拿地和新开工面积两年复合增速分别为-16.9%、-1.9%。融资约束叠加楼市调控收紧下，房企前端投入持续低迷，虽然4月迎来年内首轮供地高峰，但4~5月成交土地增速仍为负值。5月竣工面积增速大幅上扬，两年复合增长8.2%。2017年以来开工与竣工持续正剪刀差，近两年竣工潮是大概率事件，也将是地产相关的主要交易线索；\n二是融资弱与销售强。5月国内贷款和销售回款（定金预收款+个人按揭）两年复合增速分别为0.6%和16.7%，差异显著。“三道红线”以来，房企外源融资弱化，而对销售回款的依赖明显更强。因此，销售端变盘的时点需要高度关注；\n三是施工弱与价格强。房地产投资可由施工面积、PPI（反映单位施工面积的施工强度）和土地购置费拟合。由于新开工走弱、竣工改善，年初以来存量施工面积增速已在不断下降，但地产投资韧性不弱，建材价格上涨对今年地产的名义投资贡献较大。\n往后看，按揭额度管控+严查违规贷款将降温楼市热度，下半年地产投资或呈缓降态势。房地产宏观审慎政策（房贷集中度管理等）或控制下半年按揭贷款额度，同时消费贷经营贷违规入楼市也在持续严查，抑制居民加杠杆向房企输送资金。居民贷款增长已初现拐点。地产销售和投资趋势上难免弱化，但由于货币政策不收紧、房贷利率上行缓慢，房地产销售与投资也没有失速风险。重点城市供地“两集中”或导致投资数据波动加大，项目毛利率较低，上海模式正在成为市场热议对象。基建：低位徘徊，下半年略有作为\n基建投资低位徘徊，今年1-5月基建投资累计同比11.8%，两年复合增长2.6%，我们测算5月份两年复合增速为2.8%，较4月提速0.4个百分点。\n基建投资小幅加快或系专项债供给提速带动，但仍弱于今年3月份开工旺季的增速，一方面作为稳价组合拳之一，519国常会要求抑制高耗能项目，近期多地政府删减“两高”计划投资项目，另一方面受4月下旬交易所新规的影响，城投债发行审核条件趋严、募资用途受限，5月城投融资负增长，拖累基建资金来源。\n下半年基建可能适度托底。一方面，消费与制造业尚未恢复至理想状态，而出口订单已开始走弱、房地产高压调控影响也逐步显现，基建需要托底，部分约束政策可能适度放宽；另一方面，今年上半年政府债供给缓慢、下半年空间大，财政有望后置发力支撑基建投资。内需顺周期：阻力中渐进改善\n制造业：中游设备行业投资加快\n制造业投资温和修复，今年1-5月制造业投资累计同比20.4%，两年复合增长0.6%，由负转正，我们测算5月两年复合增速为3.7%，较4月提速0.3个百分点。行业层面，上游投资增速相对领先、中下游继续追赶：（1）今年上游行业投资增速总体领先，与上游的价格、盈利和补库存等高景气度相匹配；（2）制造业投资周期启动是设备类行业的核心驱动力，中游设备类行业投资近期提速较快；（3）医药和通信电子行业是疫情受益行业，从盈利到投资都在下游行业中鹤立鸡群。（4）其他下游消费行业表现相对低迷，与疫情反复、国内消费恢复缓慢相匹配。（5）汽车行业近年来从需求受损到供给受损，资本开支恢复较慢。制造业投资的未来走势如何？我们在2021年6月24日报告《三层周期看制造业投资》从长中短周期以及中观行业视角分析研判制造业走势。总结而言，长周期看，我国制造业投资已进入稳定期，个位数增速是常态；中周期看，去年下半年开启朱格拉周期、目前仍处在上升期，今年下半年随着需求结构中内需占比提升、盈利分配向中下游倾斜，企业投资意愿有望继续改善；短期看，国内疫情反复可能压制投资节奏、但不足以改变投资的周期性回升势头。不过，近期以色列疫情反弹，可能引发疫苗有效性担忧，是否会从信心层面压制企业投资意愿仍待观察。中观视角，目前上游行业投资增速已相对领先，下半年投资提速或集中表现在中下游行业，其中医药和通信电子行业投资仍有望保持较高景气度。消费：劳动节提振社交经济、竣工潮助力地产后周期  \n5月社会消费品零售总额同比12.4%，低于市场预期（Wind一致预期为12.8%），两年复合增速4.5%，较前值提速0.2个百分点。4、5月季调后环比分别为0.25%、0.81%。消费加快，但结构分化有所加大，从细分类别两年复合增速看，社交经济消费全面提速，主要系劳动节提振；地产后周期消费明显改善，家电消费大幅提速5.2个百分点，受益于地产竣工加快；汽车与通讯器材消费降幅较大，主要系供应端缺芯对需求端造成约束，中汽协预计6月汽车产销数据仍不乐观、四季度将缓解。如何看待目前消费的修复程度？首先，消费总量仍不强，增速约为疫情前的五成水平。从今年5月社会消费品零售总额的两年复合增速来看，4.5%的增速仅为疫情前的五成左右；今年一季度全国居民人均消费支出的两年复合增速为3.9%，远不及2019年全年的8.5%。其次，服务消费尤其低迷。今年4-5月全国餐饮收入的两年复合增速仅为0.4%和1.3%。据文旅部，今年五一假期国内出游人数为疫前同期（可比口径）的103.2%，而旅游收入仅为疫前同期的77%；端午假期全国国内旅游出游人次按可比口径恢复至疫前同期的98.7%，但国内旅游收入仅恢复至疫前同期的74.8%，显示出服务业消费仍然受到制约。\n如何理解消费恢复缓慢？消费可分解为可支配收入x消费倾向 x消费场景。①居民收入一般沿着“企业利润修复->就业市场改善->居民收入增长”的次序展开；②消费倾向会受到经济景气程度、预防性储蓄、贫富分化、房地产周期等因素影响，其中消费意愿滞后于景气恢复，决定了消费是经济的后周期变量；③消费场景与疫情环境、疫苗接种、政府管制措施、汽车缺芯等因素有关。基于此，目前消费恢复不足，一是就业市场未完全恢复，居民收入增速尚不及疫情前；二是经济景气不足+预防性储蓄心态+收入差距增大+地产周期抬头下，社会消费倾向有所下降；三是疫情局部反复+疫苗接种率不足，消费场景仍待恢复，餐饮等接触式消费明显不足，汽车缺芯。\n如何估计后续消费复苏的长度与高度？短期而言，疫情局部反复对消费打击可能较大，端午和“618”消费数据疲弱已有体现，但影响持续性预计有限。下半年随着收入增长、预防性储蓄下降、地产销售降温、疫苗接种率提高，消费仍是渐进改善趋势。预计本轮消费复苏期至少要进行到明年上半年，并且消费稳态增速难达疫情前高度，主因为消费倾向恢复偏慢，且疫情危机造成了系统性损伤。具体理由如下：\n①今年上半年企业盈利增速可能见峰值，根据经验，居民收入增速修复将进行至今年四季度，但增速水平预计难达到疫情前（2019年）的高度，增速损失源于疫情后就业市场的结构性损伤与经济潜在增速的系统性下行；②消费倾向恢复将由经济景气度改善与楼市降温带动、相对滞后，预计要进行至明年上半年，而由于稳态后的经济和房价都难以回到疫情前，消费倾向也难以回到疫情前高度；③预计今年底消费场景约束基本解除。近期国内疫苗接种加速，预计四季度接种率可达到群体免疫的标准，届时场景对消费影响将变得微弱。而变异病毒逃离疫苗免疫，疫情不断反复是制约消费复苏的主要风险。预计下半年消费复苏亮点在社交经济消费的修复、以及地产后周期消费的延续。首先，社交经济消费目前仍属于短板，虽然近期国内疫情又有反复，但疫苗接种也在加快，下半年修复性需求值得期待，包括休闲服务、航空客运、服装等领域；其次，国内楼市销售高温已延续一段时期，地产迎来竣工潮的概率也较高，后周期消费预计有不俗表现。汽车消费（尤其新能源车）受益于疫情与低碳转型政策，但短期面临供给约束（缺芯问题）。就业：失业率回到疫情前水平，但年轻群体失业率抬升\n5月份，全国城镇调查失业率为5.0%，比4月下降0.1个百分点，比上年同期下降0.9个百分点，1-5月份，全国城镇新增就业574万人，完成全年目标的52.2%。失业率已经基本回到疫情前水平，城镇新增就业完成率也已经过半，稳就业压力看似不大，但事实上结构隐忧仍存，5月份16-24岁人口、25-59岁人口调查失业率分别为13.8%（4月为13.6%）、4.4%（4月为4.6%）。在整体失业率与25-59岁人口失业率下降的情况，16-24岁人口失业率较上月有所上升，表明年轻群体的就业仍存在挑战，关注后续毕业季压力。通胀：PPI-CPI剪刀差创新高\nCPI涨幅温和，内需未达理想状态\n5月CPI同比1.3%，走高0.4个百分点，其中翘尾因素为0.9%；CPI环比-0.2%，持平于季节性（历史同期均值为-0.2%）。核心CPI同比0.9%，走高0.2个百分点。CPI涨幅仍温和且低于市场预期，一是猪价回落压制、二是消费恢复缓慢，不过受节日出行需求提振与局部成本转嫁影响，核心CPI环比保持在历史同期偏高水平。\n分项来看：\n5月CPI食品同比0.3%，回升1个百分点，环比-1.7%（历史同期均值为-1.1%）。（1）猪价跌幅仍大，主因还是产能持续性恢复，以及猪价下跌预期导致养殖户恐慌性出栏。农业部预计今年6-7月生猪存栏恢复至常年水平、10月往后出栏量恢复至常年水平。值得注意，因猪价下跌而饲料价格上涨，生猪养殖已经转入亏损区间，农户补栏积极性将受抑；（2）蔬果价格跌幅次之，主因供给季节性回升。但目前蔬果价格仍处历史同期偏高水平，或系生产与运输成本提升。后续预计随着主汛期到来，菜价将由跌转涨，而夏季鲜果陆续上市则推动果价继续走低；（3）水产品与蛋类涨幅较大，统计局解释均存在饲料涨价影响。\n5月CPI非食品同比1.6%，回升0.3个百分点，环比0.2%（历史同期均值为0.1%）。其中，旅游、交通工具、其他用品及服务（含旅馆）、衣着、家用器具环比涨幅强于季节性，一是系劳动节出行需求带动，交通/旅行社/宾馆等价格恢复性上涨，二是系原材料涨价带动，电器类受成本影响较大。而家用器具以外的生活用品、医疗保健环比涨幅弱于季节性，说明内需消费并未恢复至理想状态。\n往后看，年内CPI压力不大，四季度或是年内高点、可控制在3%以内。核心CPI年内或随服务消费恢复与制造业成本转嫁而逐月走高，年末预计升至接近2%。具体以四因素分析下半年CPI，其中，服务业量价回暖趋势明确而节奏偏慢，虽然近期广深疫情有扰动，但也加速了疫苗接种，有望降低后续疫情风险；核心商品类价格随着消费好转而逐步转嫁成本，经验滞后于上游原材料价格见顶至少半年以后；油价走势仍存变数，短期欧美疫情缓解、出行改善提振原油需求，同时页岩油产能仍缺位，而下半年供给弹性有望改善；生猪产能持续恢复，下半年低猪价叠加高基数仍是通胀主要的压制因素。PPI继续冲高，国内定价的黑色系领涨\n5月PPI同比9%，走高2.2个百分点，其中翘尾因素约为2.8%；PPI环比1.6%，涨幅扩大0.7个百分点，再次达历史最高值。当月上游生产资料环比涨幅扩大、国内定价的黑色系强于全球定价的有色与原油。下游工业消费品涨幅仍大，尤其是受原材料涨价影响大、需求改善较快的耐用消费品成本转嫁相对明显。\n分项来看：5月PPI生产资料环比2.1%，涨幅扩大0.9个百分点，同比12%。分商品看，（1）黑色金属（5.1%）涨幅领先，近期国内地产开工弱而粗钢产量高增长、库存高于季节性，基本面并不支持黑色系高涨，涨价主因仍是供给收缩预期；（2）有色金属（4.1%）涨幅亦大，近期南美疫情高企、智利铜矿工人罢工影响供给，同时欧美疫情收敛、制造业复苏，供需错位仍在演绎；（3）能源（2.8%）价格由跌转涨，与欧美出行恢复有关。此外，近期美元走弱是推涨大宗商品的共性因素。PPI生活资料环比0.1%，涨幅持平前值，同比0.5%。其中日用品涨幅大，耐用消费品三个月累计涨幅达近十年新高，成本转嫁继续体现。\n往后看，今年PPI走势取决于国际大宗商品价格变化与基数因素，二季度两者共振导致PPI陡峭上行，下半年基数回升是明牌，大宗商品涨势是关键、预计环比将收敛，对应PPI同比年中见高点，三季度仍或维持高位，四季度压力渐缓，全年中枢可能落在6%左右。我们对大宗价格判断的主要逻辑在于，一是全球流动性（M2）拐点出现在3月，经验领先大宗商品拐点约1个季度；二是美国疫情稳定叠加耐用品需求透支，下半年消费将从商品向服务转移；三是国内地产政策压抑效果或在下半年显现；四是资源国疫苗接种率不断提升，供求错位将随时间缓解；五是美国疫苗接种相对领先，下半年经济放开、美联储退出QE预期升温，美元可能阶段性强势，亦抑制大宗涨价。不过，仍需要关注美国新财政刺激计划推进情况与国内降碳限产政策的设计，欧美边境放开对油价的提振等上行风险。\nPPI-CPI剪刀差已创下新高，历史每次剪刀差突破前高对应PPI见顶回落，而CPI尤其是非食品仍有逾半年的趋势上涨以消化成本压力。每一轮的故事都不一样，目前PPI在度过最高点（5~6月），但三季度可能仍在高位运行、回落较晚，CPI面临成本上行和内需不强的正负两个因素、上行缓慢，剪刀差收敛速度或较慢。金融：信用局部收缩是主要特征\n特征一：总量平稳、主体分化。5月社融规模1.92万亿，同比少增1.27万亿、略低于市场预期，社融存量同比增速11%，较4月回落0.7个百分点，剔除政府债的增速9.9%，回落0.5个百分点。一是去年3~6月高基数，二是城投地产融资政策约束，信用债和非标缩量形成拖累。不过，表内信贷不弱、结构较好，企业中长期贷款强劲、票据贷款冲量，显示政策对实体融资支持。总体上，对于不同主体，信用环境分化明显，制造业融资可得性较好，而城投地产等融资条件偏紧，仍是局部信用收缩的特征。\n特征二：企业债缩量、政府债提速。分部门结构看：（1）企业端，中长期贷款保持强劲，一是制造业信贷支持政策持续推动，二是519国常会部署加大普惠小微企业信贷支持，三是近期专项债发行提速或对基建配套贷款有所提振。企业非标融资仍受到融资类信托监管、理财整改等政策影响，年初以来信托贷款存量保持每月1千亿左右的压降节奏。企业债融资同比少增4215亿元，为18年5月以来首次负增长，主要是城投债融资缩量拖累。（2）居民端，5月贷款新增6232亿元，同比少增811亿元。其中，短期贷款和中长期贷款新增收窄，系严查违规消费贷与实际消费活动不强，中长期贷款边际收敛，本轮地产销售或见顶。（3）政府端，5月政府债融资6701亿元，同比少增4661亿元，去年同期基数高，实际已显著多于今年前4个月与往年同期，供给节奏明显加快。\n地方债发行有三个关注点：其一，近期财政部下达今年地方债限额34,676亿元，较预算安排少2,024亿元，引发额度缩减讨论。事实上，年内地方债限额分批下达是惯例。不过时至年中尚未下达全年额度，也或透露全年发行不满的可能性，主要是项目审批严格的约束；其二，6月7日财政部长刘昆提及，适当放宽专项债券发行时间限制，主要是考虑提高债券资金利用效率避免沉淀，意味着今年可能不会有明确进度要求、年底亦有发行。但据微观调研，三季度供给仍会相对集中，或与年底财政审核结余、施工气候条件变差等有关；其三，今年专项债项目前期准备充分，预计资金拨付快、削弱资金面扰动，而在经济层面的反馈时滞也可能缩短。\n特征三：M2-M1增速差走扩，非银存款大幅增长。5月M2同比增速由4月的8.1%升至8.3%，M1由6.2%降至6.1%，二者增速差小幅走扩。5月社融增速下滑但M2增速提高，原因在于去年5月政府债券和非标对社融贡献较大，但这两者并不直接派生M2，而今年5月存款增长主要由非银存款贡献。具体来看，居民、企业和财政存款的单月增量均较去年有所减少。企业和财政存款的减少主要源于高基数与政府债发行少于去年同期。非银存款历来波动较大，当月大幅增长可能有两个原因：一是银行在资产荒+信贷需求偏弱背景下普遍通过货基等产品过渡，导致非银资产规模扩大，二是非银贷款增长派生了大量非银存款。市场启示\n宏观环境来看，经济增长动能将逐步有所放缓，但会更平衡。通胀方面，CPI可控，PPI三季度仍或维持高位，四季度压力渐缓，全年中枢可能落在6%左右。政策方面，国内货币政策稳字当头，财政政策后置发力，美联储QE退出将是三季度关注点。\n债市：市场短期交易政策>资金面>供求>基本面，基本面走势决定了债市窄幅震荡、上行是机会、曲线小幅平坦化。\n股市：盈利驱动尚未结束，关注分配变化下的行业轮动。我们预计三季度PPI仍在高位，不改盈利驱动下的顺周期逻辑，但同时，大宗价格见顶、PPI-CPI剪刀差进入收敛阶段，盈利分配将向中下游行业倾斜，中游设备行业在朱格拉周期与利润率改善下或迎来转机。下游消费行业关注社交经济恢复下的国民品牌与大宗消费、地产竣工潮下的后周期消费品。\n商品：大宗热潮或已过，政策扰动是风险。 我们预计本轮大宗热潮已过，下半年继续涨价空间不大。一是全球流动性（M2）拐点出现在3月，经验领先大宗商品拐点约1个季度；二是美国疫情稳定叠加耐用品需求透支，下半年消费将从商品向服务转移；三是国内地产政策压抑效果或在下半年显现；四是资源国疫苗接种率不断提升，供求错位将随时间缓解；五是美国疫苗接种相对领先，下半年经济放开、美联储退出QE预期升温，美元可能阶段性强势，亦抑制大宗涨价。不过，仍需要关注美国新财政刺激计划推进情况与国内降碳限产政策的设计，欧美边境放开对油价的提振，是下半年大宗价格的主要上行风险。\n汇率：维持美元指数90-94区间的判断，人民币升值压力阶段性缓解并双向波动。一方面，从基本面来看，欧洲疫苗接种和经济复苏的边际动能都对美国形成追赶，料短期内欧元强势在一定程度上压制美元，但另一方面，美联储释放鹰派表态，美国货币政策正常化逐渐拉开序幕，对美元形成强劲支撑，料美元维持震荡偏强走势。人民币方面，正面因素在于我国经济仍将在全球保持领先，且强出口和国内资本市场开放带来的经常账户和资本账户顺差有望持续，负面因素在于美联储货币政策以及强美元的影响，总体而言，人民币升值压力料阶段性缓解，并在宽幅区间保持双向波动。\n风险提示\n七一前安全生产扰动：大庆前安全生产要求较高，可能短期影响工业和建筑业生产活动。\n变异新冠病毒脱离疫苗保护：以色列作为全民免疫的典型，近期疫情出现反弹，新冠病毒Delta+变种可能躲过现存疫苗保护，疫苗失效可对全球复苏与企业投资产生信心冲击。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5224,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":true}