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- JoHoJoHo
  ·2022-12-06
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  In Crypto We Trust (or Not)
  Story HighlightsThe FTX scandal has shattered the public’s confidence in all things crypto, undersco
  In Crypto We Trust (or Not)
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- JoHoJoHo
  ·2022-12-06
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  Microsoft: Undervalued With Phenomenal Dividend Growth Prospects
  SummaryMicrosoft continues to be one of our favorite all-around ideas.During Microsoft’s calendar th
  Microsoft: Undervalued With Phenomenal Dividend Growth Prospects
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- JoHoJoHo
  ·2022-07-14
  Next move?
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- JoHoJoHo
  ·2022-07-13
  What a crash!!
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- JoHoJoHo
  ·2022-07-10
  What will it be tomorrow?
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- JoHoJoHo
  ·2022-07-07
  Inflation is the Big word now.
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- JoHoJoHo
  ·2022-07-05
  What a start!!
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- JoHoJoHo
  ·2022-06-30
  Another decline...
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- JoHoJoHo
  ·2022-06-28
  Oh oh!!!
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- JoHoJoHo
  ·2022-06-27
  A good week?
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Now, regulation is coming; the crypto universe will undergo...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/in-crypto-we-trust-or-not\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1606183248679","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>In Crypto We Trust (or Not)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIn Crypto We Trust (or Not)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-06 21:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/in-crypto-we-trust-or-not><strong>TipRanks</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Story HighlightsThe FTX scandal has shattered the public’s confidence in all things crypto, underscoring the black box that is crypto space. Now, regulation is coming; the crypto universe will undergo...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/in-crypto-we-trust-or-not\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/in-crypto-we-trust-or-not","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126673413","content_text":"Story HighlightsThe FTX scandal has shattered the public’s confidence in all things crypto, underscoring the black box that is crypto space. Now, regulation is coming; the crypto universe will undergo major changes, but cryptocurrencies will probably survive.Cryptocurrencies have been falling since November 2021, in line with the stock market’s downturn on the back of the general risk-off mode. These declines were nothing new or alarming, as crypto is notoriously volatile; many have seen the declines as an easy entry point. However, the mood has changed after the crash of FTX and the still-ongoing harm it has induced. What’s even worse than billions of dollars disappearing overnight is that FTX’s demise, with its contagion across the digital currency markets, has shattered the general public’s confidence in all things crypto.Crypto’s “Lehman” Moment?Investors in cryptocurrencies have lost billions of dollars since FTX started wobbling at the beginning of November. However, the crypto crisis is nowhere near being over; actually, it is in its early stages. The amount of collateral damage is still unknown but is likely to be enormous, as the crypto world operates in a closed loop with vast interconnectedness. The crypto ecosystem has grown into a parallel banking system, with firms investing in one another, buying each other’s tokens, and lending tokens and dollars to one another, which means the collapse of FTX will continue to topple others.There are many similarities between what happened in 2008 and now that have led many to compare these developments with Lehman’s collapse in 2008. Just as it was with Lehman’s downfall, among the most prominent outcomes are the destruction of confidence and the recognition of a need for regulation and investor protection.Lehman, Enron, and FTXHow does a company valued at $32 billion implode overnight? Simple: bad management, probable fraud, and lack of oversight – coupled with FOMO (“fear of missing out”) and hype that led investors to loosen their due diligence methods to the extent of virtually throwing money at anything with the right lingo.Last year, as investors bought anything tech for any price, the craze, of course, included cryptos. Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase Global (NASDAQ: COIN) went public at a market cap of $65 billion; its stock has lost about 90% since then. Australian Bitcoin (BTC-USD) miner Iris Energy (NASDAQ: IREN) IPOed at $25 per share; it’s now trading under $1.70. Another crypto miner, Stronghold Digital (NASDAQ: SDIG), had a hugely successful IPO with the price upsized by 40%; its share price has crashed now by 97%.Source: TradingViewBasically, many publicly-traded miners have lost above 90% of their value since last year’s peak, with the biggest losses incurred before the FTX’s collapse.Now, crypto lenders such as BlockFi, Galaxy Digital (TSE: GLXY), Digital Currency Group, and others are seeing defaults on their loans to miners. Many of these funders are expected to file Chapter 11 themselves or have already declared bankruptcy. All this just goes to show that the crypto space was in an enormous bubble, with the FOMO craze blinding investors and allowing mismanagement and fraud to fly under the radar.Until it fell, FTX was one of the most trusted entities in the crypto space, believed to be “a gold standard” for crypto trading and backed by celebrities, financial influencers, and reputable institutions.Among its investors are Sequoia Capital, SoftBank (OTC: STFBF), BlackRock (NYSE: BLK), Lightspeed Venture Partners, Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan, Temasek Fund, and others, who channeled their shareholders’ money into the FTX black box without knowing the full nature and extent of the risk they are taking. This likens the FTX case – besides the parallels with Lehman – to that of a corporate fraud scandal at Enron in 2001.No “Lender of Last Resort”Interestingly, FTX investors could have continued to channel money to the exchange, increasing their future losses, if not for CoinDesk, a crypto information provider that published a report questioning FTX and Alameda’s solvency. One of the findings in the report was that FTX’s own token, FTT, was used to prop up Alameda’s balance sheet.The report validated the uneasy feelings of many in the industry, causing the world’s largest crypto exchange, Binance, to unload its $500 million holdings of FTT, leading to a crash in its price. This started an old-fashioned “run on the bank” as FTX’s customers panicked and started pulling their money out. Still, the foul money-management practices meant that many customers will never see their money again, as they are long sunk into Alameda’s failed crypto trading and – probably – other stunts we still don’t know about.In the unregulated world of crypto, there was no insurance for customers’ funds, but also no lender of last resort to back cash-strapped FTX. The beleaguered exchange tried to sell itself to Binance, who declined following a review of the company’s finances, apparently finding FTX unsavable.However, even if Binance had saved FTX – who would save Binance if it ran into trouble? When JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM), one of the largest, oldest, and most stable financial institutions in the world, bailed out Bear Stearns in 2008, it had to rely on the Federal Reserve’s backing – otherwise, it wouldn’t risk the mess, just like Binance. Decentralized Finance was built on the basis of being free from government regulation and meddling, so there’s no Fed in the crypto world to save the sinking ship.FTX, BlockFi, and All That JazzThe public is now just starting to discover the level of interconnectedness, as well as the prevalence of malfeasance among crypto platforms. We now know that FTX owner and CEO Sam Bankman-Fried has secretly forwarded FTX customers’ funds to his trading firm, Alameda Research, to cover its funding gap that was caused by falling crypto prices.A striking example of malpractice in the crypto world is the unhealthy relationship between BlockFi and FTX. After BlockFi filed for Chapter 11, documents revealed it was a creditor to FTX that lent money to Alameda, which, in turn, used the money to buy shares through one of Bankman-Fried’s shell companies. These shares were then used as collateral for FTX’s loans from BlockFi. BlockFi is now blaming its demise (besides the sharp declines in cryptocurrency prices) on Alameda’s default on $680 million owed to BlockFi.U.S. state securities regulators are now conducting an inquiry into the interconnectedness of crypto firms. Already, about 100 companies affiliated with FTX are filing for bankruptcy, and many more will follow. The wipeout of a large number of crypto firms will put even more pressure on liquidity and volume throughout the crypto ecosystem.The Gold Standard of TrustThe crisis in the crypto space began in May when stablecoin TerraUSD collapsed because investors lost confidence in the asset that backed it, Luna token. The crash of the “stablecoin” underscored the fact that the only thing really supporting crypto’s value is investor trust.In a way, it’s not much different from any other types of currencies – from shells through cattle to dollars. Money is a means of exchange; if people believe that a shell buys you a knife, then a shell is worth a knife. A dollar bill is just a piece of paper, but it is backed by a common belief in its value – as well as by the law and the Federal Reserve.The Federal Reserve was established to bring stability to the financial system, which suffered from banking panics and failures. These were the times of the financial “Wild West” when confidence was the scarcest commodity of all. The Fed became the issuer and the supporter of a single national currency and the lender of last resort. With it came deposit insurance and comprehensive regulation, which allowed the public to trust the institutions holding their capital.Cryptos were made to be like dollars but better – without the oppressive control of the governments. They were based on a notion that “every person is their own bank,” beyond the reach of the central authorities. However, if anyone can make a token in a stroke of a key without backing it up with any real asset or trusted authority, how do you convince people it’s worth the price you’ve attached to it? As that question is still unanswered, it looks like, at least for now, cryptocurrencies failed as an alternative to central bank money.Regulation is ComingSo maybe effective regulation will solve the trust issues like it did for the U.S. dollar? Perhaps, but that would eliminate most of the efficiency and anonymity that drive cryptocurrencies’ appeal. However, regulation and oversight are certainly coming to the industry after the FTX debacle, whether the crypto bugs (perpetual crypto bulls, similar to “gold bugs”) want it or not.Certainly, the regulation will apply to crypto exchanges and brokerages, not to the tokens themselves, as they are built to be virtually uncontrollable (leaving aside the issue of controllable mining businesses). For crypto bugs, the exchanges represent a sellout of the pure idea of freedom money. However, without the exchanges, cryptos would still be shadow means of payments used only by criminals and a small number of geeks. The emergence of exchanges was a major factor fueling cryptocurrencies’ price growth as they opened the crypto world to millions of average Joes who have no idea what blockchain is.Regulation and oversight might be positive for the survivors of the crypto purge, as it could restore confidence and even lead to higher investor interest and an increase in the prices of tokens. Ultimately, it would turn cryptos into another OTC asset, like equities, but with a bit more digital style and higher risk. The industry may have little choice if it wants to survive.On the other hand, Vitalik Buterin – the inventor of Ethereum (ETH-USD) – said recently that to avoid the corruption of anything centralized, the crypto world should abandon exchanges altogether, returning to its initial decentralized state, even if it means much less efficiency and much lower prices. However, most digital currency investors do it for profit, not for the idea, so the return to the pure roots seems unlikely.One way or another, the crypto space will not be the same in a post-FTX world, but cryptocurrencies will probably survive.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":247,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9967237189,"gmtCreate":1670333712341,"gmtModify":1676538345811,"author":{"id":"3571654919705737","authorId":"3571654919705737","name":"JoHo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6abe4a1fabaa50223737e93c50ec182","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571654919705737","idStr":"3571654919705737"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😁","listText":"😁","text":"😁","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9967237189","repostId":"1101532726","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101532726","pubTimestamp":1670333566,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1101532726?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-06 21:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Microsoft: Undervalued With Phenomenal Dividend Growth Prospects","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101532726","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryMicrosoft continues to be one of our favorite all-around ideas.During Microsoft’s calendar th","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Microsoft continues to be one of our favorite all-around ideas.</li><li>During Microsoft’s calendar third quarter, the company hauled in $16.9 billion in free cash flow in the period.</li><li>It ended the quarter with a net cash position of $58.6 billion, as its total cash and cash equivalents position swelled to $107.3 billion.</li><li>These cash-based sources of intrinsic value remain key attributes behind the resilience of Microsoft&#39;s fair value estimate.</li><li>Let&#39;s dig into Microsoft and talk about how we derive our fair value estimate and why we think its dividend growth potential is phenomenal.</li></ul><p>We&#39;re playing the long game when it comes to investing, and we still like the areas of large cap growth and big cap tech as a way to generate significant capital appreciation over the long haul. 2022hasn&#39;t been the best year for these areas, but as with any drawdown in some of the strongest free-cash-flow generating, net-cash-rich, secular-growth powerhouses, we believe that they once again will reach new highs -- it may take a bit longer than previously expected, however. Large cap growth, as measured by the Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF (SCHG), in which Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) is one of the top weightings, has been a strong performer the past 5 years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/136f15c30a44d26c0d140cb429f7c37f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"311\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The area of large cap growth continues to beat the market and trounce that of REITs during the past five years. (Image Source: Morningstar)</p><p>On October 25, 2022, Microsoft reported calendarthird-quarterresults. We had been expecting weakness in the PC (personal computer) market as well as in news and search advertising spending on the basis of the company&#39;s prior outlook, and the quarterly report from the company was generally in line with the trends that we had been anticipating the past several months. We believe the remainder of calendar 2022 and the first half of 2023 will be difficult for Microsoft, but we continue to love the company&#39;s long-term capital appreciation potential.</p><p>As long-term investors, we&#39;re looking past the next few quarters at Microsoft because we know that they are going to be weak, or at least weaker than one might have expected when making forecasts last year. What really matters to the long-term picture at Microsoft, however, is that it continues to generate strong free cash flow, retains an impregnable net cash position on the balance sheet, and builds upon its strong competitive advantages to capture strength at the other side of this ongoing economic weakness.</p><p>During Microsoft&#39;s calendar third quarter, the company hauled in $16.9 billion in free cash flow in the period, and it ended the quarter with a net cash position of $58.6 billion, as its total cash and cash equivalents positioned swelled to $107.3 billion. These cash-based sources of intrinsic value remain key attributes behind the resilience of Microsoft&#39;s fair value estimate. In this note, let&#39;s dig into Microsoft and talk about how we derive our fair value estimate and why we think its dividend growth potential is phenomenal.</p><p><b>Microsoft&#39;s Key Investment Considerations</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6539adf3832ee2301111d095ea234871\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Key Investment Considerations (Image Source: Valuentum)</p><p>Microsoft&#39;s products include operating systems, cloud services, server applications, desktop and server management tools, software development tools, video games, and online advertising. It also designs, manufactures and sells hardware, including PCs, tablets, gaming consoles, and other smart accessories that integrate with its cloud offerings. The Xbox is consistently one of the best selling items during the holiday season.</p><p>Microsoft can&#39;t scoop up its own shares fast enough through its massive buyback program. The firm floats debt with the best credit quality [AAA], and we can&#39;t think of another firm with a better financial profile. Financial discipline and strong execution remain hallmarks of its business, and we don&#39;t think this will change anytime soon.</p><p>Microsoft is not a tech dinosaur, and momentum behind new devices and platforms continues to build. Its cloud-based product suite, Office 365 and Azure, continues to catch favor among consumers and enterprises at impressive rates. This momentum has allowed it to achieve goals in commercial cloud annual recurring revenue well ahead of schedule.</p><p>Years ago, Microsoft acquired LinkedIn for over $26 billion in cash, and the deal has expanded its addressable market, while helping drive engagement across Office 365. The firm&#39;s impressive financial profile gives us confidence in it moving forward, and its tremendous free cash flow generating capacity has not wavered. Its deal withActivision(ATVI) could open up even more opportunities.</p><p>Microsoft&#39;s Windows business has been the bread-and-butter of the company for such a long time, but investor focus has shifted to the company&#39;s other segments as its business model moves towards the cloud. Microsoft is helping drive the transition to cloud-based software products, something that is here to stay.</p><p><b>Microsoft&#39;s Return on Invested Capital</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/beae08a73d8d3465a4e83c12b35de8ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"556\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Return on Invested Capital (Image Source: Valuentum)</p><p>The best measure of a company&#39;s ability to create value for shareholders is expressed by comparing its return on invested capital [ROIC] with its weighted average cost of capital [WACC]. The gap or difference between ROIC and WACC is called the firm&#39;s economic profit spread. Microsoft&#39;s 3-year historical return on invested capital (without goodwill) is 61.3%, which is above the estimate of its cost of capital of 8.1%.</p><p>As such, we assign the firm a ValueCreation rating of excellent. In the chart above, we show the probable path of ROIC in the years ahead based on the estimated volatility of key drivers behind the measure. The solid grey line reflects the most likely outcome, in our opinion, and represents the scenario that results in our fair value estimate. Microsoft is a solid economic profit generator and has been for a long time.</p><p><b>Microsoft&#39;s Cash-Flow-Based Valuation Estimate</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4903a8152d8fcee83d9ae33dc43f1204\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Cash Flow Generation (Image Source: Valuentum)</p><p>Stocks that generate a free cash flow margin (free cash flow divided by total revenue) above 5% are usually considered cash cows. Microsoft&#39;s free cash flow margin has averaged about 32.6% during the past 3 years. As such, we think the firm&#39;s cash flow generation is very strong. The free cash flow measure shown above is derived by taking cash flow from operations less capital expenditures and differs from enterprise free cash flow, which we use in deriving our fair value estimate for the company. At Microsoft, cash flow from operations increased about 47% from levels registered two years ago, while capital expenditures expanded about 55% over the same time period.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c1967b6aea8618b70732bc56b4fd25c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Valuation Assumptions (Image Source: Valuentum)</p><p>We think Microsoft is worth $305 per share with a fair value range of $244-$366. The margin of safety around our fair value estimate is driven by the firm&#39;s LOW ValueRisk rating, which is derived from an evaluation of the historical volatility of key valuation drivers and a future assessment of them.</p><p>Our near-term operating forecasts, including revenue and earnings, do not differ much from consensus estimates or management guidance. Our model reflects a compound annual revenue growth rate of 10.6% during the next five years, a pace that is lower than the firm&#39;s 3- year historical compound annual growth rate of 16.4%.</p><p>Our valuation model reflects a 5-year projected average operating margin of 41.8%, which is above Microsoft&#39;s trailing 3- year average. Beyond year 5, we assume free cash flow will grow at an annual rate of 5.3% for the next 15 years and 3% in perpetuity. For Microsoft, we use a 8.1% weighted average cost of capital to discount future free cash flows.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcbd60df541ccd072192a83b7275a53f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Valuation Breakdown (Image Source: Valuentum)</p><p><b>Our Fair Value Estimate Range for Microsoft</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3da72ee43b4295af46e0c75a49afbd0a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Range of Potential Outcomes (Image Source: Valuentum)</p><p>Our discounted cash flow process values each stock on the basis of the present value of all future free cash flows. Although we estimate Microsoft&#39;s fair value at about $305 per share, every company has a range of probable fair values that&#39;s created by the uncertainty of key valuation drivers (like future revenue or earnings, for example). After all, if the future were known with certainty, we wouldn&#39;t see much volatility in the markets as stocks would trade precisely at their known fair values.</p><p>Our ValueRisk rating sets the margin of safety or the fair value range we assign to each stock. In the graph above, we show this probable range of fair values for Microsoft. We think the firm is attractive below $244 per share (the green line), but quite expensive above $366 per share (the red line). The prices that fall along the yellow line, which includes our fair value estimate, represent a reasonable valuation for the firm, in our opinion.</p><p><b>Microsoft&#39;s Strong Dividend Health</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe8969dc31d0304e4852f7f9dc1b3e91\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Dividend Cushion Cash Flow Bridge (Image Source: Valuentum)</p><p>The Dividend Cushion Cash Flow Bridge, shown in the image above, illustrates the components of the Dividend Cushion ratio and highlights in detail the many drivers behind it. Microsoft&#39;s Dividend Cushion Cash Flow Bridge reveals that the sum of the company&#39;s 5-year cumulative free cash flow generation, as measured by cash flow from operations less all capital spending, plus its net cash/debt position on the balance sheet, as of the last fiscal year, is greater than the sum of the next 5 years of expected cash dividends paid.</p><p>Because the Dividend Cushion ratio is forward-looking and captures the trajectory of the company&#39;s free cash flow generation and dividend growth, it reveals whether there will be a cash surplus or a cash shortfall at the end of the 5-year period, taking into consideration the leverage on the balance sheet, a key source of risk. On a fundamental basis, we believe companies that have a strong net cash position on the balance sheet and are generating a significant amount of free cash flow are better able to pay and grow their dividend over time.</p><p>Stocks that are buried under a mountain of debt and do not sufficiently cover their dividend with free cash flow are more at risk of a dividend cut or a suspension of growth, all else equal, in our opinion. Generally speaking, the greater the &#39;blue bar&#39; to the right (in the image above) is in the positive, the more durable a company&#39;s dividend, and the greater the &#39;blue bar&#39; to the right is in the negative, the less durable a company&#39;s dividend. Microsoft has substantial excess financial capacity to continue to keep growing its dividend.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bdd04bad899fe56c6f725766d8930c5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Dividend Cushion Ratio Deconstruction (Image Source: Valuentum)</p><p>The Dividend Cushion Ratio Deconstruction, shown in the image above, reveals the numerator and denominator of the Dividend Cushion ratio. At the core, the larger the numerator, or the healthier a company&#39;s balance sheet and future free cash flow generation, relative to the denominator, or a company&#39;s cash dividend obligations, the more durable the dividend.</p><p>In the context of the Dividend Cushion ratio, Microsoft&#39;s numerator is larger than its denominator suggesting strong dividend coverage in the future. The Dividend Cushion Ratio Deconstruction image puts sources of free cash in the context of financial obligations next to expected cash dividend payments over the next 5 years on a side-by-side comparison.</p><p>Because the Dividend Cushion ratio and many of its components are forward-looking, our dividend evaluation may change upon subsequent updates as future forecasts are altered to reflect new information, as in the ATVI transaction, for example. Microsoft&#39;s Dividend Cushion ratio stands at 4 at this time of this writing.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c756a0443a9ad5a780ef4b137628c1c4\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The Dividend Cushion ratio is one of the most powerful financial tools an income or dividend growth investor can use in conjunction with qualitative dividend analysis. The ratio is one-of-a-kind in that it is both free-cash-flow based and forward looking. Since its creation in 2012, the Dividend Cushion ratio has forewarned readers of approximately 50 dividend cuts. We estimate its efficacy at ~90%. (Image Source: Valuentum)</p><p><b>Concluding Thoughts</b></p><p>The next few quarters may be a bit weaker than investors had been expecting at Microsoft, as the gaming markets, PC demand, and general tech spending slow relative to the robust pace of years ago. The software giant has a lot of moving parts, especially with its cloud business and its deal with ATVI, but Microsoft remains a solid free cash flow generator with a fantastic balance sheet, both of which support its $305 per share fair value estimate and lofty Dividend Cushion ratio of 4. Microsoft remains one of our all-around favorite ideas, and it may just turn into the best dividend growth stock over the next few decades. We&#39;re fans.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Microsoft: Undervalued With Phenomenal Dividend Growth Prospects</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicrosoft: Undervalued With Phenomenal Dividend Growth Prospects\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-06 21:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562585-microsoft-undervalued-dividend-growth-prospects><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryMicrosoft continues to be one of our favorite all-around ideas.During Microsoft’s calendar third quarter, the company hauled in $16.9 billion in free cash flow in the period.It ended the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562585-microsoft-undervalued-dividend-growth-prospects\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562585-microsoft-undervalued-dividend-growth-prospects","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101532726","content_text":"SummaryMicrosoft continues to be one of our favorite all-around ideas.During Microsoft’s calendar third quarter, the company hauled in $16.9 billion in free cash flow in the period.It ended the quarter with a net cash position of $58.6 billion, as its total cash and cash equivalents position swelled to $107.3 billion.These cash-based sources of intrinsic value remain key attributes behind the resilience of Microsoft's fair value estimate.Let's dig into Microsoft and talk about how we derive our fair value estimate and why we think its dividend growth potential is phenomenal.We're playing the long game when it comes to investing, and we still like the areas of large cap growth and big cap tech as a way to generate significant capital appreciation over the long haul. 2022hasn't been the best year for these areas, but as with any drawdown in some of the strongest free-cash-flow generating, net-cash-rich, secular-growth powerhouses, we believe that they once again will reach new highs -- it may take a bit longer than previously expected, however. Large cap growth, as measured by the Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF (SCHG), in which Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) is one of the top weightings, has been a strong performer the past 5 years.The area of large cap growth continues to beat the market and trounce that of REITs during the past five years. (Image Source: Morningstar)On October 25, 2022, Microsoft reported calendarthird-quarterresults. We had been expecting weakness in the PC (personal computer) market as well as in news and search advertising spending on the basis of the company's prior outlook, and the quarterly report from the company was generally in line with the trends that we had been anticipating the past several months. We believe the remainder of calendar 2022 and the first half of 2023 will be difficult for Microsoft, but we continue to love the company's long-term capital appreciation potential.As long-term investors, we're looking past the next few quarters at Microsoft because we know that they are going to be weak, or at least weaker than one might have expected when making forecasts last year. What really matters to the long-term picture at Microsoft, however, is that it continues to generate strong free cash flow, retains an impregnable net cash position on the balance sheet, and builds upon its strong competitive advantages to capture strength at the other side of this ongoing economic weakness.During Microsoft's calendar third quarter, the company hauled in $16.9 billion in free cash flow in the period, and it ended the quarter with a net cash position of $58.6 billion, as its total cash and cash equivalents positioned swelled to $107.3 billion. These cash-based sources of intrinsic value remain key attributes behind the resilience of Microsoft's fair value estimate. In this note, let's dig into Microsoft and talk about how we derive our fair value estimate and why we think its dividend growth potential is phenomenal.Microsoft's Key Investment ConsiderationsKey Investment Considerations (Image Source: Valuentum)Microsoft's products include operating systems, cloud services, server applications, desktop and server management tools, software development tools, video games, and online advertising. It also designs, manufactures and sells hardware, including PCs, tablets, gaming consoles, and other smart accessories that integrate with its cloud offerings. The Xbox is consistently one of the best selling items during the holiday season.Microsoft can't scoop up its own shares fast enough through its massive buyback program. The firm floats debt with the best credit quality [AAA], and we can't think of another firm with a better financial profile. Financial discipline and strong execution remain hallmarks of its business, and we don't think this will change anytime soon.Microsoft is not a tech dinosaur, and momentum behind new devices and platforms continues to build. Its cloud-based product suite, Office 365 and Azure, continues to catch favor among consumers and enterprises at impressive rates. This momentum has allowed it to achieve goals in commercial cloud annual recurring revenue well ahead of schedule.Years ago, Microsoft acquired LinkedIn for over $26 billion in cash, and the deal has expanded its addressable market, while helping drive engagement across Office 365. The firm's impressive financial profile gives us confidence in it moving forward, and its tremendous free cash flow generating capacity has not wavered. Its deal withActivision(ATVI) could open up even more opportunities.Microsoft's Windows business has been the bread-and-butter of the company for such a long time, but investor focus has shifted to the company's other segments as its business model moves towards the cloud. Microsoft is helping drive the transition to cloud-based software products, something that is here to stay.Microsoft's Return on Invested CapitalReturn on Invested Capital (Image Source: Valuentum)The best measure of a company's ability to create value for shareholders is expressed by comparing its return on invested capital [ROIC] with its weighted average cost of capital [WACC]. The gap or difference between ROIC and WACC is called the firm's economic profit spread. Microsoft's 3-year historical return on invested capital (without goodwill) is 61.3%, which is above the estimate of its cost of capital of 8.1%.As such, we assign the firm a ValueCreation rating of excellent. In the chart above, we show the probable path of ROIC in the years ahead based on the estimated volatility of key drivers behind the measure. The solid grey line reflects the most likely outcome, in our opinion, and represents the scenario that results in our fair value estimate. Microsoft is a solid economic profit generator and has been for a long time.Microsoft's Cash-Flow-Based Valuation EstimateCash Flow Generation (Image Source: Valuentum)Stocks that generate a free cash flow margin (free cash flow divided by total revenue) above 5% are usually considered cash cows. Microsoft's free cash flow margin has averaged about 32.6% during the past 3 years. As such, we think the firm's cash flow generation is very strong. The free cash flow measure shown above is derived by taking cash flow from operations less capital expenditures and differs from enterprise free cash flow, which we use in deriving our fair value estimate for the company. At Microsoft, cash flow from operations increased about 47% from levels registered two years ago, while capital expenditures expanded about 55% over the same time period.Valuation Assumptions (Image Source: Valuentum)We think Microsoft is worth $305 per share with a fair value range of $244-$366. The margin of safety around our fair value estimate is driven by the firm's LOW ValueRisk rating, which is derived from an evaluation of the historical volatility of key valuation drivers and a future assessment of them.Our near-term operating forecasts, including revenue and earnings, do not differ much from consensus estimates or management guidance. Our model reflects a compound annual revenue growth rate of 10.6% during the next five years, a pace that is lower than the firm's 3- year historical compound annual growth rate of 16.4%.Our valuation model reflects a 5-year projected average operating margin of 41.8%, which is above Microsoft's trailing 3- year average. Beyond year 5, we assume free cash flow will grow at an annual rate of 5.3% for the next 15 years and 3% in perpetuity. For Microsoft, we use a 8.1% weighted average cost of capital to discount future free cash flows.Valuation Breakdown (Image Source: Valuentum)Our Fair Value Estimate Range for MicrosoftRange of Potential Outcomes (Image Source: Valuentum)Our discounted cash flow process values each stock on the basis of the present value of all future free cash flows. Although we estimate Microsoft's fair value at about $305 per share, every company has a range of probable fair values that's created by the uncertainty of key valuation drivers (like future revenue or earnings, for example). After all, if the future were known with certainty, we wouldn't see much volatility in the markets as stocks would trade precisely at their known fair values.Our ValueRisk rating sets the margin of safety or the fair value range we assign to each stock. In the graph above, we show this probable range of fair values for Microsoft. We think the firm is attractive below $244 per share (the green line), but quite expensive above $366 per share (the red line). The prices that fall along the yellow line, which includes our fair value estimate, represent a reasonable valuation for the firm, in our opinion.Microsoft's Strong Dividend HealthDividend Cushion Cash Flow Bridge (Image Source: Valuentum)The Dividend Cushion Cash Flow Bridge, shown in the image above, illustrates the components of the Dividend Cushion ratio and highlights in detail the many drivers behind it. Microsoft's Dividend Cushion Cash Flow Bridge reveals that the sum of the company's 5-year cumulative free cash flow generation, as measured by cash flow from operations less all capital spending, plus its net cash/debt position on the balance sheet, as of the last fiscal year, is greater than the sum of the next 5 years of expected cash dividends paid.Because the Dividend Cushion ratio is forward-looking and captures the trajectory of the company's free cash flow generation and dividend growth, it reveals whether there will be a cash surplus or a cash shortfall at the end of the 5-year period, taking into consideration the leverage on the balance sheet, a key source of risk. On a fundamental basis, we believe companies that have a strong net cash position on the balance sheet and are generating a significant amount of free cash flow are better able to pay and grow their dividend over time.Stocks that are buried under a mountain of debt and do not sufficiently cover their dividend with free cash flow are more at risk of a dividend cut or a suspension of growth, all else equal, in our opinion. Generally speaking, the greater the 'blue bar' to the right (in the image above) is in the positive, the more durable a company's dividend, and the greater the 'blue bar' to the right is in the negative, the less durable a company's dividend. Microsoft has substantial excess financial capacity to continue to keep growing its dividend.Dividend Cushion Ratio Deconstruction (Image Source: Valuentum)The Dividend Cushion Ratio Deconstruction, shown in the image above, reveals the numerator and denominator of the Dividend Cushion ratio. At the core, the larger the numerator, or the healthier a company's balance sheet and future free cash flow generation, relative to the denominator, or a company's cash dividend obligations, the more durable the dividend.In the context of the Dividend Cushion ratio, Microsoft's numerator is larger than its denominator suggesting strong dividend coverage in the future. The Dividend Cushion Ratio Deconstruction image puts sources of free cash in the context of financial obligations next to expected cash dividend payments over the next 5 years on a side-by-side comparison.Because the Dividend Cushion ratio and many of its components are forward-looking, our dividend evaluation may change upon subsequent updates as future forecasts are altered to reflect new information, as in the ATVI transaction, for example. Microsoft's Dividend Cushion ratio stands at 4 at this time of this writing.The Dividend Cushion ratio is one of the most powerful financial tools an income or dividend growth investor can use in conjunction with qualitative dividend analysis. The ratio is one-of-a-kind in that it is both free-cash-flow based and forward looking. Since its creation in 2012, the Dividend Cushion ratio has forewarned readers of approximately 50 dividend cuts. We estimate its efficacy at ~90%. (Image Source: Valuentum)Concluding ThoughtsThe next few quarters may be a bit weaker than investors had been expecting at Microsoft, as the gaming markets, PC demand, and general tech spending slow relative to the robust pace of years ago. The software giant has a lot of moving parts, especially with its cloud business and its deal with ATVI, but Microsoft remains a solid free cash flow generator with a fantastic balance sheet, both of which support its $305 per share fair value estimate and lofty Dividend Cushion ratio of 4. Microsoft remains one of our all-around favorite ideas, and it may just turn into the best dividend growth stock over the next few decades. We're fans.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":221,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9076378840,"gmtCreate":1657804577480,"gmtModify":1676536064117,"author":{"id":"3571654919705737","authorId":"3571654919705737","name":"JoHo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6abe4a1fabaa50223737e93c50ec182","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571654919705737","idStr":"3571654919705737"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Next move?","listText":"Next move?","text":"Next 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