🧠 ASML Surges on AI Orders Is a Multi-Year AI Capex Supercycle Now Locked In? ASML just delivered one of the cleanest “cycle confirmation” quarters the semiconductor industry has seen in years — and the market noticed. Q4 net sales hit a record €9.7B, orders exploded to €13.2B (nearly 2× consensus), and EUV orders alone reached €7.4B, lifting backlog to €38.8B. Two High-NA EUV systems were already recognized in revenue — a milestone that quietly signals where the next decade of chipmaking is headed. Shares surged up to +10% after hours 📈 — not on hype, but on visibility. So the real questions now: • Is ASML entering a multi-year AI capex supercycle? • Or is this the point where investors should pause, not chase? Let’s break it down 👇 ⸻ 🚀 Why This Quarter Matters More Than the Headline Beat
🎬 Netflix Slumps on Weak Guidance Structural Slowdown… or a High-Quality Dip Opportunity? Netflix just reminded the market of a hard truth: great businesses can still disappoint when expectations get too high. Despite posting record ~325M paid subscribers, solid revenue growth, and accelerating advertising traction, NFLX dropped ~4% post-earnings after management guided to moderating growth into early 2026. The numbers weren’t bad — the narrative was. So the real question isn’t what happened — it’s what happens next 👇 ⸻ 📉 Why the Market Sold First (and Asked Questions Later) Netflix didn’t miss. It underwhelmed — and at this valuation, that’s enough. ⚠️ 1️⃣ Guidance Was the Trigger, Not the Results Management signaled: • Slower revenue growth into early 2026 • Rising film & TV producti
$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ 📊 The Setup: Momentum Meets a High Bar Bullish backdrop • SoFi rallied 60%+ in 2025 despite market volatility, driven by record member growth and expanding fee-based revenue.  • Q3 results delivered 38% revenue growth, strong profitability, and solid user engagement, with 12.6M members and 18.6M products — evidence of cross-sell and ecosystem traction.  • Fee-based revenue is scaling, now a meaningful portion of total sales and helping offset interest income cyclicality.  Key consensus expectations • EPS ~ $0.12 on ~$977M revenue (Wall Street consensus), implying a growth continuation bias.  • Estimates reflect ~33% YoY revenue growth, a robust growth rate for a scaled fintech.  ⸻ 📈 Bull Case: Why $
🇸🇬 SINGAPORE STOCKS AT A 16-YEAR HIGH — CAN SGX STILL OUTPERFORM IN 2026? After a blockbuster +22.7% rally in 2025, Singapore equities enter 2026 at levels not seen in 16 years 📈 That’s an impressive run — but it also raises the obvious question: Is SGX late-cycle… or just getting started? ⸻ 🌬️ The Tailwinds Are Still Blowing Despite the strong base, the macro setup remains unusually supportive. 1️⃣ Rates Are No Longer a Headwind Interest rates have eased to around 1.20%, the lowest in 3.5 years 💸 That matters more for Singapore than many realise. Lower rates: • Support REIT distributions 🏢 • Reduce financing costs for corporates • Improve equity relative attractiveness vs fixed income In a yield-hungry market, Singapore’s dividend profile suddenly looks compelling again. ⸻ 2️⃣ The S$5B EQ
$Apple(AAPL)$ 🍎 APPLE SLIDES FOR 8 STRAIGHT WEEKS — CAPITULATION OR VALUE TRAP? Apple has now fallen eight consecutive weeks, its longest losing streak since May 2022 📉 Fund flows have quietly turned negative, making AAPL one of the least-loved names within the Mag 7 since mid-last year — a rare position for the market’s former safety blanket. The big question now: Is this finally a capitulation low… or just the market repricing Apple’s AI gap? ⸻ 🔄 Why Apple Is Lagging While Big Tech Rallies While Nvidia, Microsoft, and Meta ride the AI capex wave 🚀, Apple is stuck in an uncomfortable middle ground: 1️⃣ AI Without the Hype (Yet) • Apple’s AI strategy remains opaque • Focus is on on-device AI, privacy-first architecture • Powerful, yes
🥇 GOLD BREAKS $5,000 — EUPHORIA, OR A MONETARY RESET IN REAL TIME? Gold just did the unthinkable — $5,000/oz is no longer a forecast, it’s a print. And unlike past spikes driven by panic alone, this rally feels… different. This isn’t about one war, one election, or one rate cut. This is about confidence — and the quiet loss of it. ⸻ 🌍 The Real Driver: A Global “Trust Deficit” Gold is often labelled a fear trade, but that’s too simplistic. What we’re seeing now is a trust trade. • Trust in sovereign bonds → eroding • Trust in fiat currencies → weakening • Trust in policymakers → fragile Sovereign bond markets are selling off despite slowing growth, a red flag that usually precedes regime shifts. At the same time, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index just fell 1.6% in a week, its biggest drop sin
🐯 Trip.com Crashes on Regulatory Probe: Real Risk — or a Classic China Fear Flush? ✈️📉 Trip.com Group plunged ~17% in a single session, erasing weeks of gains after China’s market regulator launched a formal investigation. The timing couldn’t be worse — travel demand was finally stabilising, sentiment was improving, and investors were rotating back into China consumption plays. So why such a violent reaction? Because in China tech, regulation is never just regulation — it’s memory. ⸻ 🧠 Why the Market Panicked (Psychology Matters) This sell-off wasn’t about numbers. It was about PTSD. Investors still remember: • 2021 tech crackdowns • Sudden rule changes • Profitable platforms becoming “policy problems” overnight So when the word “formal investigation” appears, markets don’t wait for detail
🐯 Singapore Home Sales Hit 4-Year High: Are S-REITs the Smart Trade? 🏙️📈 Singapore’s private housing market just sent a strong signal. In 2025, total new private home sales (ex-ECs) hit 10,821 units, up +67.3% YoY — the highest since 2021. That’s not a marginal rebound. That’s a cycle revival. For equity investors, this matters — not because developers are suddenly cheap, but because S-REITs offer a cleaner, more liquid way to express views on: • Property fundamentals • Interest-rate expectations • Cash-flow re-rating The question now: Is this strength durable — and can S-REITs push higher from here? ⸻ 🧠 Why Housing Strength Matters for REITs Residential sales don’t flow directly into REIT earnings, but they anchor confidence across the property ecosystem: • Signals household balance-sheet
🐯 Trump Threatens New Tariffs: Will the Sell-Off Last? When Does TACO? 🌮📉 Trump is back to doing what markets know best: weaponizing uncertainty. Via Truth Social, Trump announced a 10% tariff on eight European countries starting Feb 1, with a threat to escalate to 25% by June 1 if a so-called “Greenland deal” isn’t reached. Markets reacted instantly — and predictably. Overnight: • 🟡 Gold & Silver hit fresh weekly highs • 📈 US 10-year yields moved higher • 📉 Equities sold off on risk-off positioning The key question now isn’t what Trump said — It’s how long markets take him seriously. ⸻ 🌪️ This Is Classic Trump Trade Volatility Trump tariffs historically follow a pattern: 1. Shock headline 2. Fast risk-off repricing 3. Negotiation signals 4. Walk-back / delay / exemption 5. Markets rec
🚀 NVIDIA × Eli Lilly: A Blueprint for NVIDIA’s Next $100B Growth Vertical NVIDIA and Eli Lilly’s $1B, five-year AI partnership is being underappreciated by the market. This is not about healthcare experimentation — it is about AI becoming a revenue-generating input, not just infrastructure. This matters because it expands NVIDIA’s total addressable market beyond hyperscalers. ⸻ 🔑 Why this deal is structurally bullish for NVIDIA NVIDIA’s current growth is tied to capex cycles at cloud providers. This partnership introduces a different demand driver: 👉 Outcome-based AI spending. Eli Lilly is deploying AI to improve: • Drug discovery hit rates • R&D capital efficiency • Time-to-market for blockbuster therapies If AI increases success probabilities or shortens development timelines by even