To The Moon

📈 10Y Treasury at 5%: Is the equity market actually in danger — or is this the reset investors have been waiting for? The most important signal from today wasn’t simply that the 10-year Treasury briefly touched 5.012%. It was what happened AFTER it got there. The yield broke 5% intraday, but couldn’t hold it, while SPY fell only ~0.45% and QQQ ~0.80%. Meanwhile, parts of the high-duration/AI complex were hit much harder. That divergence matters. 👀 If 5% were triggering a genuine “risk-off everything” event, I’d expect much broader equity capitulation. Instead, we’re seeing capital rotate away from the most rate-sensitive pockets while the broader index remains relatively resilient. 🔥 So what is the market actually pricing? Higher yields mean future earnings are worth less today. That creat

🚨 AI’s next major trade may NOT be chips — it may be cybersecurity. The most interesting part of this rotation isn’t that CRWD jumped 13.9% or PANW 13% in one session. It’s WHY money is moving there. AI is becoming more capable → attack surfaces expand → identity, cloud, endpoint, data and AI-agent security become mission-critical. The same AI labs warning about the risks are effectively highlighting why enterprises cannot simply “spend less” on security. (Axios) 💡 That creates an important asymmetry: If AI spending slows, GPU demand can get hit immediately. But if AI deployment continues, security spending arguably becomes a prerequisite rather than an optional upgrade. And this is bigger than fear-trading. Gartner estimates AI cybersecurity spending could reach $51.3B in 2026 and $86B by

A[Miser] I'd pick A — not because "what's rising keeps rising," but because price strength often reflects the market correctly pricing in improving fundamentals. A company with accelerating earnings, strong cash flow, and durable advantages can keep hitting new highs because its fair value is rising too. Waiting for a dip in a genuinely strong business can mean waiting forever. This echoes Buffett's shift from hunting statistically cheap stocks to owning great businesses at reasonable prices. A stock at an all-time high isn't expensive if earnings are growing even faster. That said, I wouldn't chase a vertical move blindly — I'd scale in, buy pullbacks, and keep checking that fundamentals still support the price. My biggest investing mistake isn't buying high — it's refusing a great

🔥 #Memory Supercycle Over? I Don’t Think So. Friday looked like a clean memory breakout — then today exposed the real battle. ⚔️ SK Hynix +4.83% 🚀 Micron -1.61% 📉 SanDisk -0.12% 😐 Same memory trade, completely different reactions. So what changed? 👉 The shortage hasn’t disappeared. It’s spreading. HBM is already tight, but now conventional DRAM + NAND are being pulled into the squeeze. Reports of Samsung and SK Hynix inventories falling below 10 days are hard to ignore. 🧨 But here’s the catch: Kioxia. If Kioxia is signalling that it wants to cool price increases, that challenges the cleanest bull thesis. Because in a shortage, the biggest enemy isn’t always weak demand — sometimes it’s your competitor deciding not to let prices run away. 👀 Still, I see this as a speed bump, not the end of

B — Tech Stocks. 💻🚀 If I could only hold one through year-end, I’d still choose Tech. Oil above $95 may benefit energy earnings in the short term, but I’m investing for the bigger structural trend, not just the current macro cycle. AI, cloud computing, data centres and semiconductor demand are long-term growth engines that can continue compounding even after the oil/inflation story fades. Yes, higher oil can keep inflation sticky and put pressure on valuations, but that can create volatility and better entry points, rather than invalidate the long-term thesis. Energy is attractive when oil stays elevated, but oil prices are cyclical. Technology’s innovation cycle is much more structural. I’d rather tolerate some volatility in quality tech names than chase an energy rally after oil ha

#Dow’s Fifth Straight Gain — But September Could Break the Streak The Dow just logged its fifth consecutive monthly gain, but I think the streak is increasingly vulnerable to a September reversal. The warning signs are stacking up fast. Brent crude has pushed back above $90, while the 10-year Treasury yield has climbed toward 4.75%+ as the Iran conflict reignites inflation fears. At the same time, markets have sharply increased the probability of a September rate hike following Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole message. That creates a particularly uncomfortable setup for equities: Higher oil → higher inflation expectations → fewer Fed cuts / greater hike risk → higher yields → lower equity multiples. And the Dow isn’t immune simply because it is more value-oriented. A prolonged oil shock can sq

#Warsh Just Changed the Market Regime — And Tech Is the First Casualty Warsh’s Jackson Hole message wasn’t simply “rates might go higher.” The bigger signal is that the Fed is no longer willing to treat modest disinflation as evidence that inflation is sustainably returning to 2%. That matters because PCE is still running well above target, while the market had been positioned for easier policy. (Federal Reserve) September hike odds have jumped from roughly 35% to around 60%, while the 2-year Treasury yield immediately repriced higher. (Reuters) My read: this is most bearish for high-duration tech, less straightforward for BTC, and potentially the most complicated for gold. 1️⃣ Tech — biggest fundamental pressure QQQ is vulnerable because higher front-end yields directly increase the disco

Alphabet’s 3-horizon model is the most balanced. Using Search cash flow to fund Cloud growth and Gemini optionality protects margins better than Meta’s cash-compressing $130–145B CapEx plan. This was a leveraged liquidity unwind, not a CapEx panic. Situational Awareness’s margin call forced liquidations across unrelated AI stocks before Citadel stepped in to buy the dip. A dovish Fed tone supports growth multiples into the September FOMC, but the market will get selective. Future gains will favor companies converting CapEx into revenue over heavy spenders. Own the Sellers (AWS, memory/chip suppliers) and disciplined spenders like MSFT/GOOG. Picks-and-shovels providers collect revenue today, avoiding the risk of compressed free cash flow. [Lovely][Lovely][Lovely]

MSTR +24% Bitcoin Rally: Still Worth Chasing? Strategy just reminded the market why MSTR is one of the highest-beta ways to play Bitcoin. Bitcoin has ripped ~24% recently, pushing Strategy’s 840,447 BTC holdings back above their aggregate cost basis. MSTR followed with a 2.83% gain Monday — but the bigger story is the $2B capital raise. Here’s the bullish part: Strategy now has roughly $6.69B of USD liquidity, including a newly created $1.59B cash pool. That gives Saylor dry powder to buy Bitcoin, repurchase securities, or exploit market dislocations. And this is why I’m still bullish on MSTR: BTC goes up → MSTR’s asset base strengthens → capital becomes easier to raise → more BTC can potentially be accumulated → BTC exposure per share can compound. That reflexive loop is the entire MSTR t

NVIDIA Drops 2.3% Before Earnings — I’m Still Bullish 🚀 NVIDIA just gave investors a better entry point. Shares fell 2.3% Tuesday, as the entire semiconductor complex sold off, with NVDA now sitting around the $225 area ahead of its Aug. 26 earnings. The market is suddenly questioning whether AI spending has gone too far, whether NVIDIA is financing its own demand, and whether challengers like Cerebras and Groq can finally take share. My take? The market is focusing on the wrong risk. I’m bullish into earnings. 1. The fundamental numbers are still extremely hard to ignore NVIDIA’s last quarter was not a company showing signs of slowing down. Q1 FY27 revenue hit $81.6B, +85% YoY, while Data Center revenue reached $75.2B, +92% YoY. Even more important: NVIDIA guided Q2 revenue to approximate