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- KianwaiKianwai
  ·04-24
  Did you read the full report?
  Sea Limited: Gaming Trends Continue To Soften
  Sea Limited's stock has rallied nearly 40% this year, but a number of risks continue to cloud the horizon.The core risks include competition from larger e-commerce companies, macroeconomic uncertainti
  Sea Limited: Gaming Trends Continue To Soften
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- KianwaiKianwai
  ·2022-11-17
  $Sea Ltd(SE)$ looking forward to better profit and control in the expenses. This is a long game and not for traders. Looking at the growth in shoppe and seamoney. I believe better Q coming up and SE is able to pivot out of milky water with their cash on hand.
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In my view, it&#39;s a good time for investors to assess these risks and consider trimming down their positions.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/078efa19283ef9a2fafebdec815c1733\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"424\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><p>I last wrote a note on Sea in March, downgrading the company from a prior bullish position down to neutral. I cautioned that earnings may prove to be a negative catalyst for Sea. The stock briefly popped after the Q4 earnings release, and has since sputtered back down on relatively mixed results, which we&#39;ll discuss in the next section. All in all, I&#39;m retaining my caution and holding to a <strong>neutral </strong>opinion on Sea: the stock remains on my daily watch list, and I&#39;m ready to pounce again if it drops to the low $40s, but until then, I&#39;m remaining on the sidelines.</p><p>As a roundup of all of the risks on the horizon for Sea:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>E-commerce arm competes with much larger rivals - The</strong> company competes with much bigger-pocketed parent companies in the e-commerce space in Southeast Asia. In particular, Indonesia&#39;s homegrown Tokopedia recently merged with China&#39;s TikTok/Bytedance, while Lazada is backed by Alibaba.</p></li><li><p><strong>Macro risks - The</strong> global economy, particularly in Asia and China, are still recovering at a slow pace. Deteriorations in property and asset values in Asia, in particular, have blunted the &#34;wealth effect&#34; of those living in the region and have disincentivized consumption.</p></li><li><p><strong>Gaming division relies heavily on big hits, and the lack of a major release has softened trends in the business. </strong>The company has failed to produce a new massive hit that can replace its current tentpole titles, <em>Free Fire </em>and <em>Call of Duty Mobile. </em>Bookings and paid users are continually coming down.</p></li><li><p><strong>Cost inflation - Despite</strong> huge investments into sales and marketing to drive growth, the company&#39;s top-line metrics aren&#39;t showing any acceleration.</p></li></ul><p>We will still acknowledge, however, that the Sea enjoys a number of secular tailwinds. Not only does it operate in the fast-growing Southeast Asia region (which is developing not only economically, but also growing its population more rapidly than the rest of the world), but this is also a region that is in the earlier stages of digitization. The major question is if Sea will be a victim of consolidation, as the main e-commerce players in the region continue to compete with each other (and produce losses in the process).</p><p>All in all, I&#39;d still recommend staying on the sidelines here.</p><h2 id=\"id_3526820253\">Q4 download</h2><p>Let&#39;s now go through Sea&#39;s latest quarterly results in greater detail. First, we&#39;ll start with the company&#39;s results in e-commerce, which were the positive highlight for the quarter:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cc049c5476223210025c63798e1da907\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"342\"/></p><p>Sea e-commerce results (Sea Q4 earnings deck)</p><p>Marketplace revenue grew 23% y/y to $2.3 billion, which accelerated versus 18% y/y growth in Q3. The company does face a tough prior-year profitability compare, but note that sequentially, adjusted EBITDA losses moderated by 35% quarter-over-quarter.</p><p>Operational improvements here dominated the sequential improvements in profitability. The company has improved its execution through adding new sorting centers and hubs. Per CEO Forrest Li&#39;s remarks on the Q4 earnings call:</p><blockquote><p>On logistics, we opened five new sorting centers and 385 new first and last mile hubs across our Asia markets and extended our logistics network further to improve our coverage. Through more automation, tighter planning, better routing and other operational improvements, our platform logistics cost per order in Asia decreased by 12% year-on-year in the fourth quarter. This was partly driven by our own logistics network cost per order decreasing by 20% from the same period last year.</p><p>We are also seeing good progress made on delivery speed. In Indonesia, in December 2023, more than half of the orders from buyers in Java were delivered within two days. We will continue to improve logistics service quality in terms of both speed and consistency. At the same time, we are also expanding premium services such as next day delivery and introducing new features. For example, we commenced return-on spot services in Indonesia and Vietnam. This initiative has resulted in higher trust and increased product frequency – purchase frequency from our buyers, particularly those who are new to Shopee.&#34;</p></blockquote><p>GMV also grew 29% y/y in the quarter, outpacing revenue growth. The key for Sea/Shoppee will be its ability to maintain growth and scale to make full use of its expanded operational capacity, which certainly isn&#39;t a given due to sharp competition in the region from deeper-pocketed incumbents.</p><p>The gaming division, however, continued to struggle. Total bookings in the quarter declined -16% y/y to $456.3 million:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/af7b6fe92165b7148cce5d428b427cba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\"/></p><p>Sea gaming key metrics (Sea Q4 earnings deck)</p><p><strong>The company continued to shed quarterly active users, and at a faster pace. </strong>Users declined by 15.4 million quarter over quarter, while paid user ratios remained low at 7.5%. Management is continuing to lean on Free Fire, which it claims has over 100 million daily active users; it&#39;s expecting Free Fire bookings and users to grow double digits this year. Still, given the fact that gaming is the profit center for Sea, I&#39;m worried about continued degradation in the paid user base.</p><p>Meanwhile, costs are soaring. In particular, the company more than doubled sales and marketing expenses to $967.4 million, which is a staggering 27% of GAAP revenue (which is substantial for a tech company with a gross margin hovering in the ~40% range, with not much room in margin dollars to scale profitably):</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/36dc79f38e52fe05a268205117f33c3e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"/></p><p>Sea cost trends (Sea Q4 earnings deck)</p><h2 id=\"id_2086076948\">Key takeaways</h2><p>All in all, given the strong YTD rally in Sea, I continue to view more risk than reward in holding this stock. Sequential deterioration in active gaming users, a jump in operating costs, and e-commerce competition are all thorny issues without a near-term solve. I&#39;m content to maintain my position on the sidelines here.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea Limited: Gaming Trends Continue To Soften</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea Limited: Gaming Trends Continue To Soften\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-04-17 16:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4684037-sea-limited-gaming-trends-continue-to-soften><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Sea Limited's stock has rallied nearly 40% this year, but a number of risks continue to cloud the horizon.The core risks include competition from larger e-commerce companies, macroeconomic ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4684037-sea-limited-gaming-trends-continue-to-soften\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd","BK4566":"资本集团","LU0532188223.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - ASEAN Equity A (acc) SGD","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","SGXZ58947870.SGD":"LIONGLOBAL SINGAPORE DIVIDEND EQUITY (SGDHDG) INC","SG9999002406.SGD":"利安新加坡信托基金","BK4588":"碎股","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","SG9999002620.SGD":"LionGlobal South East Asia SGD","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","SG9999004360.SGD":"Nikko AM Shenton Thrift Fund SGD","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SG9999013460.SGD":"LionGlobal Singapore Dividend Equity Fund SGD","BK4085":"互动家庭娱乐","SG9999013478.USD":"利安新加坡股息基金","SG9999006266.SGD":"MANULIFE SINGAPORE EQUITY \"A\" (SGD) ACC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","IE0034224299.USD":"PINEBRIDGE ASIA EX JAPAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","SG9999002604.SGD":"LionGlobal Singapore/Malaysia SGD","SG9999005177.SGD":"Legg Mason Martin Currie - Southeast Asia Trust A Acc SGD","SG9999002679.SGD":"LionGlobal Singapore Balanced SGD","SG9999001135.SGD":"United ASEAN Fund SGD","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","SG9999013486.USD":"LIONGLOBAL SINGAPORE DIVIDEND EQUITY (USD) INC A","LU0048573645.USD":"富达东盟基金","LU0251143029.SGD":"Fidelity ASEAN A-SGD","SG9999014492.USD":"NIKKO AM ASEAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","SG9999014484.SGD":"Nikko AM ASEAN Equity Fund A SGD","LU0210637038.USD":"HSBC GIF THAI EQUITY \"AD\" INC","SG9999002414.USD":"LIONGLOBAL SINGAPORE TRUST (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4684037-sea-limited-gaming-trends-continue-to-soften","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2428775708","content_text":"Sea Limited's stock has rallied nearly 40% this year, but a number of risks continue to cloud the horizon.The core risks include competition from larger e-commerce companies, macroeconomic uncertainties, lack of major gaming releases, and cost inflation.Despite these risks, Sea enjoys secular tailwinds in the fast-growing Southeast Asia region, but caution is advised for investors.I'd wait for Sea to fall back to the $40s before buying back in.Amid sharp market volatility this year that has created widely divergent gaps in performance in the tech sector, Sea Limited (NYSE:SE) has been among the few e-commerce companies to rally substantially this year, with shares of the company commonly referred to as the \"Amazon of Southeast Asia\" up nearly 40% year to date.But underneath that sharp rally, many small risks are emerging. In my view, it's a good time for investors to assess these risks and consider trimming down their positions.Data by YChartsI last wrote a note on Sea in March, downgrading the company from a prior bullish position down to neutral. I cautioned that earnings may prove to be a negative catalyst for Sea. The stock briefly popped after the Q4 earnings release, and has since sputtered back down on relatively mixed results, which we'll discuss in the next section. All in all, I'm retaining my caution and holding to a neutral opinion on Sea: the stock remains on my daily watch list, and I'm ready to pounce again if it drops to the low $40s, but until then, I'm remaining on the sidelines.As a roundup of all of the risks on the horizon for Sea:E-commerce arm competes with much larger rivals - The company competes with much bigger-pocketed parent companies in the e-commerce space in Southeast Asia. In particular, Indonesia's homegrown Tokopedia recently merged with China's TikTok/Bytedance, while Lazada is backed by Alibaba.Macro risks - The global economy, particularly in Asia and China, are still recovering at a slow pace. Deteriorations in property and asset values in Asia, in particular, have blunted the \"wealth effect\" of those living in the region and have disincentivized consumption.Gaming division relies heavily on big hits, and the lack of a major release has softened trends in the business. The company has failed to produce a new massive hit that can replace its current tentpole titles, Free Fire and Call of Duty Mobile. Bookings and paid users are continually coming down.Cost inflation - Despite huge investments into sales and marketing to drive growth, the company's top-line metrics aren't showing any acceleration.We will still acknowledge, however, that the Sea enjoys a number of secular tailwinds. Not only does it operate in the fast-growing Southeast Asia region (which is developing not only economically, but also growing its population more rapidly than the rest of the world), but this is also a region that is in the earlier stages of digitization. The major question is if Sea will be a victim of consolidation, as the main e-commerce players in the region continue to compete with each other (and produce losses in the process).All in all, I'd still recommend staying on the sidelines here.Q4 downloadLet's now go through Sea's latest quarterly results in greater detail. First, we'll start with the company's results in e-commerce, which were the positive highlight for the quarter:Sea e-commerce results (Sea Q4 earnings deck)Marketplace revenue grew 23% y/y to $2.3 billion, which accelerated versus 18% y/y growth in Q3. The company does face a tough prior-year profitability compare, but note that sequentially, adjusted EBITDA losses moderated by 35% quarter-over-quarter.Operational improvements here dominated the sequential improvements in profitability. The company has improved its execution through adding new sorting centers and hubs. Per CEO Forrest Li's remarks on the Q4 earnings call:On logistics, we opened five new sorting centers and 385 new first and last mile hubs across our Asia markets and extended our logistics network further to improve our coverage. Through more automation, tighter planning, better routing and other operational improvements, our platform logistics cost per order in Asia decreased by 12% year-on-year in the fourth quarter. This was partly driven by our own logistics network cost per order decreasing by 20% from the same period last year.We are also seeing good progress made on delivery speed. In Indonesia, in December 2023, more than half of the orders from buyers in Java were delivered within two days. We will continue to improve logistics service quality in terms of both speed and consistency. At the same time, we are also expanding premium services such as next day delivery and introducing new features. For example, we commenced return-on spot services in Indonesia and Vietnam. This initiative has resulted in higher trust and increased product frequency – purchase frequency from our buyers, particularly those who are new to Shopee.\"GMV also grew 29% y/y in the quarter, outpacing revenue growth. The key for Sea/Shoppee will be its ability to maintain growth and scale to make full use of its expanded operational capacity, which certainly isn't a given due to sharp competition in the region from deeper-pocketed incumbents.The gaming division, however, continued to struggle. Total bookings in the quarter declined -16% y/y to $456.3 million:Sea gaming key metrics (Sea Q4 earnings deck)The company continued to shed quarterly active users, and at a faster pace. Users declined by 15.4 million quarter over quarter, while paid user ratios remained low at 7.5%. Management is continuing to lean on Free Fire, which it claims has over 100 million daily active users; it's expecting Free Fire bookings and users to grow double digits this year. Still, given the fact that gaming is the profit center for Sea, I'm worried about continued degradation in the paid user base.Meanwhile, costs are soaring. In particular, the company more than doubled sales and marketing expenses to $967.4 million, which is a staggering 27% of GAAP revenue (which is substantial for a tech company with a gross margin hovering in the ~40% range, with not much room in margin dollars to scale profitably):Sea cost trends (Sea Q4 earnings deck)Key takeawaysAll in all, given the strong YTD rally in Sea, I continue to view more risk than reward in holding this stock. Sequential deterioration in active gaming users, a jump in operating costs, and e-commerce competition are all thorny issues without a near-term solve. I'm content to maintain my position on the sidelines here.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":46,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9963625351,"gmtCreate":1668668746274,"gmtModify":1676538094235,"author":{"id":"3573149749236524","authorId":"3573149749236524","name":"Kianwai","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f7d07dd15f3a6e1a474d8585179fd5d9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> looking forward to better profit and control in the expenses. This is a long game and not for traders. Looking at the growth in shoppe and seamoney. I believe better Q coming up and SE is able to pivot out of milky water with their cash on hand.","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> looking forward to better profit and control in the expenses. This is a long game and not for traders. Looking at the growth in shoppe and seamoney. I believe better Q coming up and SE is able to pivot out of milky water with their cash on hand.","text":"$Sea Ltd(SE)$ looking forward to better profit and control in the expenses. This is a long game and not for traders. Looking at the growth in shoppe and seamoney. I believe better Q coming up and SE is able to pivot out of milky water with their cash on hand.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9963625351","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":74,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}