phagefish

option sellers by nature but occasional buyer of Options.

    • phagefishphagefish
      ·04-15
      $Apple(AAPL)$  bounced off $169. Glad that my bull put spreads sold $AAPL $170/$165 to expiration 26th Apr is printing $. 
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    • phagefishphagefish
      ·04-13
      $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$  yes. Fsd su scription will slowly take over more and more of the revenue. This recurring revenue is almost pure profit for TSLA. Also it brings it closer to the 6billion miles data goal. Go go go TSLA 
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    • phagefishphagefish
      ·04-12

      Exploiting VIX spikes and crashes using Options

      #Winning Trades Disclaimer: Here, I am just sharing what I may be doing. this is not an investment or trading advice. I am not responsible for your own trades and investments decisions.  Most of us must have heard about VIX as the "fear indicator" for the S&P500 Index. The general understanding is the higher the VIX, the higher the fear.  According to wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VIX), VIX is a volatility index derived from S&P 500 options for the 30 days following the measurement date,[5] with the price of each option representing the market's expectation of 30-day forward-looking volatility. The resulting VIX index formulation provides a measure of expected market volatility on which expectations of further stock market volatility in the near future m
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      Exploiting VIX spikes and crashes using Options
    • phagefishphagefish
      ·04-12
      $VIXW 20240424 16.0 PUT$ managed to buy this vid when Vix spiked up above 16. What goes up needs to come down. I have either to hold till expiration, 12 days for Vix to go down further towards recent 13 support. This is cash settled at expiration. Or if it falls to around $13 before expiration, will just close it. 
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    • phagefishphagefish
      ·04-10

      Core Inflation Rate Disappoints?

      CNBC (https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/09/stock-market-today-live-updates.html) "The consumer price index in March rose faster than economists had estimated, suggesting stubborn inflation and pushing back expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The CPI rose 0.4% for the month and 3.5% year-over-year. Economists polled by Dow Jones had forecasted an increase of 0.3% month over month and 3.4% year on year. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, accelerated 0.4% from the previous month while rising 3.8% from a year ago, compared to estimates for 0.3% and 3.7%, respectively." Focusing on CORE CPI trend over a year, it is a steady downward trend. considering that 3.8% for Feb Core CPI and it is still a 3.8% for Mar, we may be taking a breather. The consen
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      Core Inflation Rate Disappoints?
    • phagefishphagefish
      ·04-10
      There seems to be a good support at the $800s. I sold a bull put spread at $810/805. Hope that expires OTM. Current rsi is one of the lowest in recent months. Estimate it would fall to below 35rsi if it really falls to below $800. Hope not. 
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    • phagefishphagefish
      ·04-10
      Sadly, this may push up CPI. Hope the Gaza crisis will tuned down to a two party conflict. All the hard work in reducing inflation around the world do not get undone by oil prices spikes. Looking at #URA the uranium energy ETF. Waiting for it to fall. All the best everyone. May we have peace and prosperity for all. 
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    • phagefishphagefish
      ·04-10

      Earning season is round the corner. Options selling galore

      Earnings galore coming. Here are some estimated earning dates of some of our favorite stocks: TICKER Earnings/Relevant Options Expiration #TSLA 23Apr/26Apr #GOOG 23Apr/26Apr #MSFT 23Apr/26Apr #META 24Apr/26Apr #AMZN 25Apr/26Apr #AAPL 2May/3May #NVDA 22May/24May Options that expire right after earnings using have their very high Implied Volatilty (IV) before earnings. Regardless of bad or good results after earnings, since the results are known, IV suffers from IV crush. The general trend is that even at the same underlying's price, high IV options (puts or calls) will fetch more premium while low IV options (puts or calls) will fetch lower premium.  This trend gives options sellers an edge because if the options are sold before earnings can get nice premium and s
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      Earning season is round the corner. Options selling galore
    • phagefishphagefish
      ·04-10
      $TSLA 20240517 260.0 CALL$ sold some covered calls for income. Worried that it will be called away. 
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    • phagefishphagefish
      ·04-09
      $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$  a simple rate cuts can already save TSLA. That was what Elon explained during Q4 earnings call. Don't need the robotaxi. After Apr free trial of fsd12, I expect TSLA to roll out monthly subscription plans on the cheap first. The fixed costs of disseminating fsd12 are already gone. So every single dollar of profit from fsd is pure profit. Moreover, they get to collect even more data for fsd. Expecting fsd profits and margins to exceed one time off profit from selling cars over time. Also consider megapacks business. That is a monster growing quickly. Huat ah TSLA!
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