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- waiwaihowaiwaiho
  ·2022-12-12
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  Morgan Stanley, Goldman Say Earnings Are Biggest Risk for Stocks
  This week’s US inflation print and Federal Reserve decision might be at the forefront of most invest
  Morgan Stanley, Goldman Say Earnings Are Biggest Risk for Stocks
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- waiwaihowaiwaiho
  ·2022-12-12
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  What to Expect in the Last Consumer Price Inflation Report of the Year, and What’s Ahead
  Core inflation seen rising 0.3% in November, up 6.1% from 2021Next year’s price outlook hinges on go
  What to Expect in the Last Consumer Price Inflation Report of the Year, and What’s Ahead
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- waiwaihowaiwaiho
  ·2022-11-03
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- waiwaihowaiwaiho
  ·2022-11-02
  $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$break 10 pls
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- waiwaihowaiwaiho
  ·2022-11-02
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- waiwaihowaiwaiho
  ·2022-10-31
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- waiwaihowaiwaiho
  ·2022-10-31
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  XPeng, ON Semiconductor, Credit Suisse And More: U.S. Stocks To Watch
  With US stock futures trading lower this morning on Monday, some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are as follows:
  XPeng, ON Semiconductor, Credit Suisse And More: U.S. Stocks To Watch
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- waiwaihowaiwaiho
  ·2022-07-19
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  How to Trade Options in a Bear Market: Retired Math Teacher
  Steve Chen was options trading covered calls and LEAPS options in neutral and bullish markets.This y
  How to Trade Options in a Bear Market: Retired Math Teacher
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- waiwaihowaiwaiho
  ·2022-07-19
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- waiwaihowaiwaiho
  ·2022-06-29
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  Alibaba: 5 Reasons To Buy, 2 Reasons To Sell
  IntroductionAlibaba (NYSE:BABA) (OTCPK:BABAF) is one of the most contentious holdings in my portfoli
  Alibaba: 5 Reasons To Buy, 2 Reasons To Sell
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18:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley, Goldman Say Earnings Are Biggest Risk for Stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174892959","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"This week’s US inflation print and Federal Reserve decision might be at the forefront of most invest","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>This week’s US inflation print and Federal Reserve decision might be at the forefront of most investors’ minds, but for some of Wall Street’s most prominent strategists it’s the prospect of future profit downgrades that’s the biggest worry for stocks.</p><p>According to notes from Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s David Kostin, earnings could contract more than expected in 2023 as margins come under pressure, providing a difficult backdrop for equities.</p><p>“The final chapter to this bear market is all about the path of earnings estimates, which are far too high,” Wilson wrote in a note on Monday. The consumer price index reading and Fed meeting are “yesterday’s news,” said the strategist, who ranked No. 1 in the latest Institutional Investor survey.</p><p>Both Wilson and Kostin see a tough start to 2023 for equities, following a year in which many major indexes fell into bear markets before a fourth-quarter rally. Soaring inflation and rising interest rates have until now been central to investor concerns, and that’s likely to remain the case — for the short-term, at least.</p><p>The Fed on Wednesday isset to raiseits key rate by 50 basis points to a range of 4% to 4.5%, the highest since 2007, and to signal more increases in early 2023. The day before that, November’s consumer price index is expected to show that while inflation is decelerating, it remains too high for comfort. The S&amp;P 500 slid 3.4% last week on concerns that a strong US economy will keep the Fed on its aggressive policy tightening path, putting the benchmark on track for its worst year since 2008.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b71eb876eca889df00f30b51e998bd69\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Looking further ahead, Wilson expects a very challenging environment for earnings in 2023 as “costs will remain elevated and prices received by companies will fall.” His Goldman Sachs counterpart is of a similar view, saying margins could weigh on estimates more than forecast. Kostin’s team expects no appreciation in either profit or the S&amp;P 500 next year.</p><p>Goldman sees the benchmarkending the yearat 4,000, while Wilson expects it to close at 3,900 points, roughly in line with current levels.</p><p>And while an informal survey of 134 fund managers conducted by Bloombergshowedsome of the world’s biggest investors predict that stocks will see low double-digit gains next year, not everyone is convinced by this scenario.</p><p>“Many investors have a more bearish equity market outlook than we do,” Kostin wrote. While he assumes a soft landing in 2023, equity returns would be worse than expected if the US economy enters a recession, he said.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley, Goldman Say Earnings Are Biggest Risk for Stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley, Goldman Say Earnings Are Biggest Risk for Stocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-12 18:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-12/morgan-stanley-goldman-say-earnings-are-biggest-risk-for-stocks><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>This week’s US inflation print and Federal Reserve decision might be at the forefront of most investors’ minds, but for some of Wall Street’s most prominent strategists it’s the prospect of future ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-12/morgan-stanley-goldman-say-earnings-are-biggest-risk-for-stocks\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-12/morgan-stanley-goldman-say-earnings-are-biggest-risk-for-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174892959","content_text":"This week’s US inflation print and Federal Reserve decision might be at the forefront of most investors’ minds, but for some of Wall Street’s most prominent strategists it’s the prospect of future profit downgrades that’s the biggest worry for stocks.According to notes from Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s David Kostin, earnings could contract more than expected in 2023 as margins come under pressure, providing a difficult backdrop for equities.“The final chapter to this bear market is all about the path of earnings estimates, which are far too high,” Wilson wrote in a note on Monday. The consumer price index reading and Fed meeting are “yesterday’s news,” said the strategist, who ranked No. 1 in the latest Institutional Investor survey.Both Wilson and Kostin see a tough start to 2023 for equities, following a year in which many major indexes fell into bear markets before a fourth-quarter rally. Soaring inflation and rising interest rates have until now been central to investor concerns, and that’s likely to remain the case — for the short-term, at least.The Fed on Wednesday isset to raiseits key rate by 50 basis points to a range of 4% to 4.5%, the highest since 2007, and to signal more increases in early 2023. The day before that, November’s consumer price index is expected to show that while inflation is decelerating, it remains too high for comfort. The S&P 500 slid 3.4% last week on concerns that a strong US economy will keep the Fed on its aggressive policy tightening path, putting the benchmark on track for its worst year since 2008.Looking further ahead, Wilson expects a very challenging environment for earnings in 2023 as “costs will remain elevated and prices received by companies will fall.” His Goldman Sachs counterpart is of a similar view, saying margins could weigh on estimates more than forecast. Kostin’s team expects no appreciation in either profit or the S&P 500 next year.Goldman sees the benchmarkending the yearat 4,000, while Wilson expects it to close at 3,900 points, roughly in line with current levels.And while an informal survey of 134 fund managers conducted by Bloombergshowedsome of the world’s biggest investors predict that stocks will see low double-digit gains next year, not everyone is convinced by this scenario.“Many investors have a more bearish equity market outlook than we do,” Kostin wrote. While he assumes a soft landing in 2023, equity returns would be worse than expected if the US economy enters a recession, he said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":611,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9923638765,"gmtCreate":1670844973758,"gmtModify":1676538444650,"author":{"id":"3573877891823690","authorId":"3573877891823690","name":"waiwaiho","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b112a07bf435c07a2caef2264c1f3d2b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573877891823690","authorIdStr":"3573877891823690"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9923638765","repostId":"1140720876","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140720876","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1670884254,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140720876?lang=&edition=full_marsco","pubTime":"2022-12-13 06:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What to Expect in the Last Consumer Price Inflation Report of the Year, and What’s Ahead","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140720876","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Core inflation seen rising 0.3% in November, up 6.1% from 2021Next year’s price outlook hinges on go","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Core inflation seen rising 0.3% in November, up 6.1% from 2021</li><li>Next year’s price outlook hinges on goods, housing and wages</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c9ea907fdd197a10f28d06c09bd968f\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"532\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>A shopper browses televisions at a store in San Francisco.Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg</span></p><p>The path of US inflation in 2023 may have more surprises in store after a year in which consumers suffered the biggest cost-of-living hit in 40 years, spurring steep interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and spooking investors.</p><p>The November consumer price index due Tuesday, the final report of 2022, is projected to show that while inflation is moderating, it’s running at about three times its pre-pandemic pace. Excluding food and energy, the CPI is seen rising 0.3% for a second month, and 6.1% from a year ago.</p><p>The report will reinforce the narrative that inflation has peaked, said Aneta Markowska, chief financial economist at Jefferies LLC. But “there’s still going be some potholes — at least — that we hit in the next few months in terms of the inflation outlook.”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f0e3e4f592d5cd3eaa1947fc9f06dd1\" tg-width=\"645\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The trajectory of inflation next year will depend on whether there’s further tempering in core goods prices, when and how much rents cool and to what extent wage growth — particularly in services — moderates.</p><p>Here’s a look at what economists are expecting for the CPI in November and the months ahead:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a55b26f12ac467624b05a45651438ba\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Prices of used cars and medical care services are expected to decline, with the latter largely reflecting updated source data that drove a record drop in the health insurance price index in the prior month’s report.</p><p>Shelter, however, will remain a big driver of inflation. The October CPI showed a welcome slowdown in rent as well as owners’ equivalent rent, which posted the smallest monthly gain since July. But given the size of the pullback, Oscar Munoz, US macro strategist at TD Securities, said he’s expecting a small bounce in November. Economists see the housing components as a wild card for the month.</p><p>Small categories could also see some reverals after outsize moves in the prior month. For instance, the cost of hotel stays, which surged 5.6% in October, are expected to ease or even decline.</p><p>Apparel prices will also likely drop for a third month amid high inventory and heavy discounting heading into the holiday season, Munoz said.</p><p>Meantime, gasoline prices, which on a daily basis have fallen steadily since early last month, are not only expected to be a drag on the November headline figure, but may also help produce the first decline in CPI since 2020 when the December data are released.</p><h2>Goods, Housing</h2><p>Fed Chair Jerome Powell in a speech last month broke down his approach to inflation into three main categories: core goods, housing and core services ex-housing. While his speech dove into the particulars of one of the Fed’s preferred inflation measures — the core personal consumption expenditures price index — it’s helpful to analyze the path of CPI in similar terms.</p><p>In the near-term, economists expect to see a continuation of the pullback in prices for core goods. Commodities excluding food and energy dropped 0.4% in October after no change in the prior month.</p><p>The imbalance between the supply and demand for goods has been a key driver of inflation, but improving supply chains and softer demand at home and abroad have helped to stabilize prices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb26ac87a30a2e21940969479358aa2c\" tg-width=\"645\" tg-height=\"572\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Note: 10-month annualized rates. Top core items include vehicle repair, pet food, delivery services and auto insurance</p><p>That said, declining prices for used cars and trucks have been a key driver of the easing in the core CPI in recent months. But a stabilization of those prices — rather than outright declines — could ultimately push monthly core readings from 0.3% back up to 0.4% around March, Markowska said.</p><p>That potentially raises the risk that the Fed “might have to go again in May unless there’s data suggesting that the economy is really rolling over,” she said.</p><p>Omair Sharif, founder of Inflation Insights LLC, emphasized the importance of the shelter components and when and how quickly they come down. In addition, he expects the slowdown in core services costs will be faster than many people expect.</p><p>“This year we’ve been caught off guard by a lot of upside surprises,” Sharif said. But next year, “any big surprise factors should be more to the downside.”</p><p>Base effects paired with goods deflation is expected to lead to a rapid descent in the CPI in the first half of the year. After that is when things start getting complicated.</p><h2><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1012444d27dc332238b7996be2041113\" tg-width=\"657\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></h2><p>Near the middle of next year, Carl Riccadonna, chief US economist at BNP Paribas, expects CPI to fall from roughly 8% currently to 4%. But “cutting it in half again — from 4 to 2 — that’s the difficult task,” he said on awebcastearlier this month.</p><h2>Services Ex-Housing</h2><p>Ultimately, the key to when inflation returns to the Fed’s target iscore services excluding housing. And because of the importance of wages in these services, economists will be watching a wide variety of pay metrics. While there are some pockets of weakness in the labor market, overall, it remains remarkably strong.</p><p>“When you’re thinking about where inflation’s going to be six to 12 months from now, I think it really comes down to wages,” Markowska said.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What to Expect in the Last Consumer Price Inflation Report of the Year, and What’s Ahead</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat to Expect in the Last Consumer Price Inflation Report of the Year, and What’s Ahead\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-13 06:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-12/what-to-expect-in-the-last-cpi-report-of-2022-and-the-year-ahead><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Core inflation seen rising 0.3% in November, up 6.1% from 2021Next year’s price outlook hinges on goods, housing and wagesA shopper browses televisions at a store in San Francisco.Photographer: David ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-12/what-to-expect-in-the-last-cpi-report-of-2022-and-the-year-ahead\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-12/what-to-expect-in-the-last-cpi-report-of-2022-and-the-year-ahead","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140720876","content_text":"Core inflation seen rising 0.3% in November, up 6.1% from 2021Next year’s price outlook hinges on goods, housing and wagesA shopper browses televisions at a store in San Francisco.Photographer: David Paul Morris/BloombergThe path of US inflation in 2023 may have more surprises in store after a year in which consumers suffered the biggest cost-of-living hit in 40 years, spurring steep interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and spooking investors.The November consumer price index due Tuesday, the final report of 2022, is projected to show that while inflation is moderating, it’s running at about three times its pre-pandemic pace. Excluding food and energy, the CPI is seen rising 0.3% for a second month, and 6.1% from a year ago.The report will reinforce the narrative that inflation has peaked, said Aneta Markowska, chief financial economist at Jefferies LLC. But “there’s still going be some potholes — at least — that we hit in the next few months in terms of the inflation outlook.”The trajectory of inflation next year will depend on whether there’s further tempering in core goods prices, when and how much rents cool and to what extent wage growth — particularly in services — moderates.Here’s a look at what economists are expecting for the CPI in November and the months ahead:Prices of used cars and medical care services are expected to decline, with the latter largely reflecting updated source data that drove a record drop in the health insurance price index in the prior month’s report.Shelter, however, will remain a big driver of inflation. The October CPI showed a welcome slowdown in rent as well as owners’ equivalent rent, which posted the smallest monthly gain since July. But given the size of the pullback, Oscar Munoz, US macro strategist at TD Securities, said he’s expecting a small bounce in November. Economists see the housing components as a wild card for the month.Small categories could also see some reverals after outsize moves in the prior month. For instance, the cost of hotel stays, which surged 5.6% in October, are expected to ease or even decline.Apparel prices will also likely drop for a third month amid high inventory and heavy discounting heading into the holiday season, Munoz said.Meantime, gasoline prices, which on a daily basis have fallen steadily since early last month, are not only expected to be a drag on the November headline figure, but may also help produce the first decline in CPI since 2020 when the December data are released.Goods, HousingFed Chair Jerome Powell in a speech last month broke down his approach to inflation into three main categories: core goods, housing and core services ex-housing. While his speech dove into the particulars of one of the Fed’s preferred inflation measures — the core personal consumption expenditures price index — it’s helpful to analyze the path of CPI in similar terms.In the near-term, economists expect to see a continuation of the pullback in prices for core goods. Commodities excluding food and energy dropped 0.4% in October after no change in the prior month.The imbalance between the supply and demand for goods has been a key driver of inflation, but improving supply chains and softer demand at home and abroad have helped to stabilize prices.Note: 10-month annualized rates. Top core items include vehicle repair, pet food, delivery services and auto insuranceThat said, declining prices for used cars and trucks have been a key driver of the easing in the core CPI in recent months. But a stabilization of those prices — rather than outright declines — could ultimately push monthly core readings from 0.3% back up to 0.4% around March, Markowska said.That potentially raises the risk that the Fed “might have to go again in May unless there’s data suggesting that the economy is really rolling over,” she said.Omair Sharif, founder of Inflation Insights LLC, emphasized the importance of the shelter components and when and how quickly they come down. In addition, he expects the slowdown in core services costs will be faster than many people expect.“This year we’ve been caught off guard by a lot of upside surprises,” Sharif said. But next year, “any big surprise factors should be more to the downside.”Base effects paired with goods deflation is expected to lead to a rapid descent in the CPI in the first half of the year. After that is when things start getting complicated.Near the middle of next year, Carl Riccadonna, chief US economist at BNP Paribas, expects CPI to fall from roughly 8% currently to 4%. But “cutting it in half again — from 4 to 2 — that’s the difficult task,” he said on awebcastearlier this month.Services Ex-HousingUltimately, the key to when inflation returns to the Fed’s target iscore services excluding housing. And because of the importance of wages in these services, economists will be watching a wide variety of pay metrics. While there are some pockets of weakness in the labor market, overall, it remains remarkably strong.“When you’re thinking about where inflation’s going to be six to 12 months from now, I think it really comes down to wages,” Markowska said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1049,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9985746595,"gmtCreate":1667477094117,"gmtModify":1676537924370,"author":{"id":"3573877891823690","authorId":"3573877891823690","name":"waiwaiho","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b112a07bf435c07a2caef2264c1f3d2b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573877891823690","authorIdStr":"3573877891823690"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like, thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Pls like, thanks&nbsp;","text":"Pls like, thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9985746595","repostId":"1101915911","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1133,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9985872960,"gmtCreate":1667361419650,"gmtModify":1676537905118,"author":{"id":"3573877891823690","authorId":"3573877891823690","name":"waiwaiho","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b112a07bf435c07a2caef2264c1f3d2b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573877891823690","authorIdStr":"3573877891823690"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>break 10 pls","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>break 10 pls","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$break 10 pls","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9ab2feb29de8e392bc0761105bfea80a","width":"1080","height":"1783"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9985872960","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":962,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9985878732,"gmtCreate":1667361261626,"gmtModify":1676537905077,"author":{"id":"3573877891823690","authorId":"3573877891823690","name":"waiwaiho","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b112a07bf435c07a2caef2264c1f3d2b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573877891823690","authorIdStr":"3573877891823690"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like, thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Pls like, thanks&nbsp;","text":"Pls like, thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9985878732","repostId":"2280931319","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":855,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9982550219,"gmtCreate":1667216755231,"gmtModify":1676537878914,"author":{"id":"3573877891823690","authorId":"3573877891823690","name":"waiwaiho","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b112a07bf435c07a2caef2264c1f3d2b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573877891823690","authorIdStr":"3573877891823690"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like, thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Pls like, thanks&nbsp;","text":"Pls like, thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":17,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9982550219","repostId":"1126872333","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1321,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9982550194,"gmtCreate":1667216704618,"gmtModify":1676537878908,"author":{"id":"3573877891823690","authorId":"3573877891823690","name":"waiwaiho","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b112a07bf435c07a2caef2264c1f3d2b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573877891823690","authorIdStr":"3573877891823690"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9982550194","repostId":"2279729806","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2279729806","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1667207192,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2279729806?lang=&edition=full_marsco","pubTime":"2022-10-31 17:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"XPeng, ON Semiconductor, Credit Suisse And More: U.S.  Stocks To Watch","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2279729806","media":"Benzinga","summary":"With US stock futures trading lower this morning on Monday, some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are as follows:","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>With US stock futures trading lower this morning on Monday, some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are as follows:</p><ul><li>Before the markets open, <b>ON Semiconductor Corporation</b> (NASDAQ:ON) is projected to post quarterly earnings at $1.32 per share on revenue of $2.12 billion. ON Semiconductor shares fell 1.4% to $66.55 in pre-market trading.</li></ul><ul><li>Citi analyst Jeff Chung double downgraded <b>XPeng</b> (NYSE:XPEV) to Sell from Buy with a $3.18 price target after reducing forecasts for sales volumes, margins and free cash flow through 2024. XPeng&#39;s model cycle faces &#34;serious challenges&#34; in 2023 as foreshadowed by its recent market share loss on &#34;poor&#34; sales and order in-takes, Chung tells investors in a research note. Chung&#39;s 2022 and 2023 revenue forecasts are now 59% and 57% below consensus, respectively. He does not expect breakeven until at least 2026 for XPeng. XPeng shares dropped 5.7% in premarket trading.</li></ul><ul><li><b>Credit Suisse</b> (NYSE:CS) on Monday said qualified investors have committed to buying 462 million new shares at a purchase price of 3.82 Swiss francs ($3.83), as it announced details of its capital hike. The fund raising is part of the embattled bank&#39;s restructuring plans itannouncedlast week to tackle the biggest crisis in the company&#39;s history. Credit Suisse shares climbed 0.5% in premarket trading.</li></ul><ul><li>Wall Street expects <b>Global Payments Inc.</b> (NYSE:GPN) to report quarterly earnings at $2.49 per share on revenue of $2.04 billion before the opening bell. Global Payments shares gained 2.9% to $129.00 in pre-market trading.</li></ul><ul><li>Analysts are expecting <b>The Goodyear Tire &amp; Rubber Company</b> (NASDAQ:GT) to have earned $0.58 per share on revenue of $5.29 billion for the latest quarter. The company will release earnings after the markets close. Goodyear Tire shares fell 0.2% to $12.50 in pre-market trading.</li></ul><ul><li><b>Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.</b> (NYSE:TMO) is said to be nearing a deal to acquire diagnostic firm Binding Site for around $2.3 billion, Bloomberg reported. Thermo Fisher shares gained 0.1% to $504.38 in the after-hours trading session.</li><li>Analysts expect <b>Stryker Corporation</b> (NYSE:SYK) to post quarterly earnings at $2.23 per share on revenue of $4.47 billion after the closing bell. Stryker shares gained 0.4% to close at $229.23 on Friday.</li></ul><ul></ul></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>XPeng, ON Semiconductor, Credit Suisse And More: U.S.  Stocks To Watch</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nXPeng, ON Semiconductor, Credit Suisse And More: U.S.  Stocks To Watch\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-10-31 17:06</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>With US stock futures trading lower this morning on Monday, some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are as follows:</p><ul><li>Before the markets open, <b>ON Semiconductor Corporation</b> (NASDAQ:ON) is projected to post quarterly earnings at $1.32 per share on revenue of $2.12 billion. ON Semiconductor shares fell 1.4% to $66.55 in pre-market trading.</li></ul><ul><li>Citi analyst Jeff Chung double downgraded <b>XPeng</b> (NYSE:XPEV) to Sell from Buy with a $3.18 price target after reducing forecasts for sales volumes, margins and free cash flow through 2024. XPeng&#39;s model cycle faces &#34;serious challenges&#34; in 2023 as foreshadowed by its recent market share loss on &#34;poor&#34; sales and order in-takes, Chung tells investors in a research note. Chung&#39;s 2022 and 2023 revenue forecasts are now 59% and 57% below consensus, respectively. He does not expect breakeven until at least 2026 for XPeng. XPeng shares dropped 5.7% in premarket trading.</li></ul><ul><li><b>Credit Suisse</b> (NYSE:CS) on Monday said qualified investors have committed to buying 462 million new shares at a purchase price of 3.82 Swiss francs ($3.83), as it announced details of its capital hike. The fund raising is part of the embattled bank&#39;s restructuring plans itannouncedlast week to tackle the biggest crisis in the company&#39;s history. Credit Suisse shares climbed 0.5% in premarket trading.</li></ul><ul><li>Wall Street expects <b>Global Payments Inc.</b> (NYSE:GPN) to report quarterly earnings at $2.49 per share on revenue of $2.04 billion before the opening bell. Global Payments shares gained 2.9% to $129.00 in pre-market trading.</li></ul><ul><li>Analysts are expecting <b>The Goodyear Tire &amp; Rubber Company</b> (NASDAQ:GT) to have earned $0.58 per share on revenue of $5.29 billion for the latest quarter. The company will release earnings after the markets close. Goodyear Tire shares fell 0.2% to $12.50 in pre-market trading.</li></ul><ul><li><b>Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.</b> (NYSE:TMO) is said to be nearing a deal to acquire diagnostic firm Binding Site for around $2.3 billion, Bloomberg reported. Thermo Fisher shares gained 0.1% to $504.38 in the after-hours trading session.</li><li>Analysts expect <b>Stryker Corporation</b> (NYSE:SYK) to post quarterly earnings at $2.23 per share on revenue of $4.47 billion after the closing bell. Stryker shares gained 0.4% to close at $229.23 on Friday.</li></ul><ul></ul></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GPN":"环汇有限公司","ON":"安森美半导体","SYK":"史赛克","TMO":"赛默飞世尔","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","GT":"固特异轮胎橡胶公司"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2279729806","content_text":"With US stock futures trading lower this morning on Monday, some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are as follows:Before the markets open, ON Semiconductor Corporation (NASDAQ:ON) is projected to post quarterly earnings at $1.32 per share on revenue of $2.12 billion. ON Semiconductor shares fell 1.4% to $66.55 in pre-market trading.Citi analyst Jeff Chung double downgraded XPeng (NYSE:XPEV) to Sell from Buy with a $3.18 price target after reducing forecasts for sales volumes, margins and free cash flow through 2024. XPeng's model cycle faces \"serious challenges\" in 2023 as foreshadowed by its recent market share loss on \"poor\" sales and order in-takes, Chung tells investors in a research note. Chung's 2022 and 2023 revenue forecasts are now 59% and 57% below consensus, respectively. He does not expect breakeven until at least 2026 for XPeng. XPeng shares dropped 5.7% in premarket trading.Credit Suisse (NYSE:CS) on Monday said qualified investors have committed to buying 462 million new shares at a purchase price of 3.82 Swiss francs ($3.83), as it announced details of its capital hike. The fund raising is part of the embattled bank's restructuring plans itannouncedlast week to tackle the biggest crisis in the company's history. Credit Suisse shares climbed 0.5% in premarket trading.Wall Street expects Global Payments Inc. (NYSE:GPN) to report quarterly earnings at $2.49 per share on revenue of $2.04 billion before the opening bell. Global Payments shares gained 2.9% to $129.00 in pre-market trading.Analysts are expecting The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company (NASDAQ:GT) to have earned $0.58 per share on revenue of $5.29 billion for the latest quarter. The company will release earnings after the markets close. Goodyear Tire shares fell 0.2% to $12.50 in pre-market trading.Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (NYSE:TMO) is said to be nearing a deal to acquire diagnostic firm Binding Site for around $2.3 billion, Bloomberg reported. Thermo Fisher shares gained 0.1% to $504.38 in the after-hours trading session.Analysts expect Stryker Corporation (NYSE:SYK) to post quarterly earnings at $2.23 per share on revenue of $4.47 billion after the closing bell. Stryker shares gained 0.4% to close at $229.23 on Friday.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1049,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9075488459,"gmtCreate":1658241373971,"gmtModify":1676536127174,"author":{"id":"3573877891823690","authorId":"3573877891823690","name":"waiwaiho","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b112a07bf435c07a2caef2264c1f3d2b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573877891823690","authorIdStr":"3573877891823690"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like, thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Pls like, thanks&nbsp;","text":"Pls like, thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9075488459","repostId":"1185506686","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185506686","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1658216005,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1185506686?lang=&edition=full_marsco","pubTime":"2022-07-19 15:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How to Trade Options in a Bear Market: Retired Math Teacher","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185506686","media":"Business Insider","summary":"Steve Chen was options trading covered calls and LEAPS options in neutral and bullish markets.This y","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Steve Chen was options trading covered calls and LEAPS options in neutral and bullish markets.</li><li>This year, he pivoted to bear call spreads because the market became bullish.</li><li>It allows him to earn premiums and some capital gains without buying the underlying stocks.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5787b4d8beaf64c2401f662b3fb1ff2c\" tg-width=\"1300\" tg-height=\"975\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Steve Chen became financially free at the age of 33. Steve Chen</span></p><p>Steve Chen spent his career as a middle-school math teacher until he retired from the job at the early age of 33 in February 2020.</p><p>He hadn&#39;t initially planned to leave that early. However, after landing his first $5,000 paycheck and seeing what he was left with after all the deductions were made, he realized he needed to find additional income streams.</p><p>One key takeaway he had after reading examples of others retiring early was that investing every month was a key factor in growing wealth. So he opened a brokerage account and began by simply investing in companies he was familiar with and broad-market exchange-traded funds such as Vanguard 500 (VOO), which tracks the S&amp;P 500.</p><p>As Chen became more familiar with investing by watching YouTube videos and reading blogs, he began to explore options trading, which took off for him in 2020.</p><p>By 2021, between his retirement and brokerage accounts, he had a net profit of $76,925.88 from options trading, according to records viewed by Insider. Chen estimates that about 5% came from dividends paid by the underlying stocks he had call options on, 10% from capital gains from selling the call options, and the remainder came from premiums.</p><p>He&#39;s now the founder of Call To Leap, a website that teaches financial education around saving and investing, including options trading, for a fee.</p><p>Throughout 2020 and 2021, Chen mainly focused on selling covered calls, an options trade where he purchased shares of a stock and then sold a contract that gave the rights to another trader to purchase those shares at a certain price by a certain date. In exchange, he received a premium for that contract. Most of the time, Chen&#39;s shares weren&#39;t purchased away. This strategy not only allowed him to own stocks that appreciated over time, but also collect a fee on the call option.</p><p>He was also purchasing LEAPS, longer-term options contracts of one year or more that gave him the right to purchase shares away from another trader.</p><p>Covered calls were more profitable when the stock market was trending either neutral or bullish because the value of the underlying stock was increasing. Chen could put his shares to work by collecting premiums and if sold, also collecting capital gains.</p><p>LEAPS were highly profitable for him during the bull market that engulfed most of 2020 and 2021 because they enabled him to hold the rights to purchase shares at a designated price in the future. Since share prices were rising rapidly and faster than the contract decayed, he often didn&#39;t buy the shares but resold that contract at a higher value for a profit.</p><p>This year, stock investors haven&#39;t been as bullish. Year-to-date, the S&amp;P 500 has tumbled by about 19% and the Dow by about 14%.</p><p>Chen told Insider he noticed the downtrend on January 18, after the support line in the S&amp;P 500&#39;s technical chart broke, indicating a reversal pattern to a downward trend. He was also aware that the Federal Reserve was planning on raising interest rates to combat rising inflation. This meant that the downward trend could be strung out.</p><p>These two factors led him to pivot his options strategy to set up what&#39;s known as bear call spreads. This is an advanced options trade that is more ideal in a bear market because it allows a trader to profit from a falling stock price and the time decay of the contract without the risk of incurring unrealized losses due to the falling price of the underlying stock. This is because Chen doesn&#39;t need to actually buy the shares he&#39;s placing under contract.</p><p>Chen says the strategy isn&#39;t for everybody. This approach is for traders who have already been options trading in bullish and neutral markets and want to pivot to doing it in a bear market. Additionally, users often won&#39;t have access to this option in their brokerage account if they haven&#39;t been trading more basic options.</p><p><b>Setting up bear call spreads</b></p><p>Setting up a bear call spread requires two main steps.</p><p>First, Chen needs to buy an out-of-the-money call option, which will act as a proxy for the shares he plans to sell under contract. He needs to do this because brokerages often won&#39;t allow traders to sell a call option contract unless they can cover themselves. Since Chen doesn&#39;t want to buy the actual shares, he purchases a covered call for the same number of shares he plans on selling. The strike price, which is the price he agrees to pay, is out-of-the-money because it&#39;s above the stock price.</p><p>In reality, he has no intention of executing this contract because it has a high strike price. Yet he chooses it because it has a lower premium.</p><p>Once he&#39;s covered, he sells a different out-of-the-money call option that matches the number of shares and expiry date from the call option he purchased. This time, he sets a strike price that would earn him a premium higher than the purchased contract.</p><p>In the event that the trader who purchased Chen&#39;s call option decides to exercise the contract and take possession of the shares, Chen would need to purchase those shares to deliver on the contract. To avoid being in a position where he overpays for the stock, he sets up a third step, which is a buy stop order slightly below the strike price of the call option he sold. Traders who don&#39;t take this third step would have to purchase the shares at market value and risk incurring a realized loss.</p><p>&#34;My intention is to not let the stock [price] surpass my sold call option contract strike [price],&#34; Chen said.</p><p>One example of him setting up a bear call spread was on June 26, when he bought four call options for AMD with a strike price of $150 that expired on July 15. At the time, AMD was trading at around $87. The contracts cost him $82.64. Once he established his proxy, he sold four call options of AMD at a strike price of $125. The premium he earned on that contract was $525.34.</p><p>He then set up a buy stop order at a share price of $124. This way, if his shares were called away, he&#39;d sell them with a capital gain of $1 on each share for a total of $400. However, in this instance, Chen kept his shares. Therefore, after deducting the cost of the call order he purchased, his total profit from the premium was $442.70, according to records viewed by Insider. In the event his buy order was executed appropriately and his shares were also sold, he could have had a total profit of $842.70.</p><p>Chen will also reduce his risk by purchasing his call option back when the contract loses 50% to 80% of its value. This allows him to pay less than what he initially sold the call option for and close the contract. In turn, reducing the number of days he&#39;s at risk. He sets expiration dates that range from 30 to 45 days out.</p><p>Chen teaches his students to pick expiration dates two to five weeks out because that&#39;s when the theta decay, which is the rate of decline in the value of the contract over time, is fastest, while the premium collected is optimal. The goal is to get both options to expire worthless as fast as possible during a downward trend.</p><p><b>Risks</b></p><p>One of the main risks Chen considers when setting up the options trade is the possibility of a buy stop order not executing. This could happen if the stock&#39;s price moves up too quickly. To avoid this, he will set up a buy stop market order rather than a buy stop limit order. The former will purchase the shares once it surpasses the set price even if it&#39;s slightly above. On the other end, the latter will only execute a buy order at exactly the set price.</p><p>While his risk is reduced, he may end up paying slightly over the price he intended. So far this incident has only happened to him once when Nike&#39;s (NKE) stock price shot up in September of 2020. Chen told Insider that by the time the buy order was executed, it was above his contract&#39;s strike price. Therefore, he purchased the shares at a higher price than what he sold them for.</p><p>The second risk happens when a buy order executes while the stock&#39;s price is rising but then the price drops before the trader decides to purchase his shares away. This could leave Chen with an unrealized loss.</p><p>For example, in 2020, Chen recalls setting up a bear call spread on AMD. The buy stop ordered was triggered but the shares were not purchased away from him. He was left with AMD shares that didn&#39;t move up in value. To mitigate his losses, he converted the trade into a covered call and kept collecting premiums on it until the shares were called away, sending him into a net positive.</p><p><b>3 criteria for picking the underlying stocks</b></p><p>In the event Chen ends up with an executed buy stop order but the shares aren&#39;t sold, he wants to ensure he&#39;s still holding stocks that have a higher probability of appreciating in the long term. Therefore, he sticks to what he believes are quality stocks.</p><ol><li>He picks stocks that are in the S&amp;P 500 or the Dow Jones Industrial Average because there is more institutional involvement and they have a higher probability of increasing in the long term.</li><li>He picks companies with strong fundamentals, which include consistent revenue growth and selling high-demand products or services.</li><li>The company&#39;s historical stock chart has a strong upward trend, especially over the past five years.</li></ol></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How to Trade Options in a Bear Market: Retired Math Teacher</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow to Trade Options in a Bear Market: Retired Math Teacher\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-19 15:33 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-trade-options-in-bear-market-stocks-strategy-risks-2022-7><strong>Business Insider</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Steve Chen was options trading covered calls and LEAPS options in neutral and bullish markets.This year, he pivoted to bear call spreads because the market became bullish.It allows him to earn ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-trade-options-in-bear-market-stocks-strategy-risks-2022-7\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-trade-options-in-bear-market-stocks-strategy-risks-2022-7","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185506686","content_text":"Steve Chen was options trading covered calls and LEAPS options in neutral and bullish markets.This year, he pivoted to bear call spreads because the market became bullish.It allows him to earn premiums and some capital gains without buying the underlying stocks.Steve Chen became financially free at the age of 33. Steve ChenSteve Chen spent his career as a middle-school math teacher until he retired from the job at the early age of 33 in February 2020.He hadn't initially planned to leave that early. However, after landing his first $5,000 paycheck and seeing what he was left with after all the deductions were made, he realized he needed to find additional income streams.One key takeaway he had after reading examples of others retiring early was that investing every month was a key factor in growing wealth. So he opened a brokerage account and began by simply investing in companies he was familiar with and broad-market exchange-traded funds such as Vanguard 500 (VOO), which tracks the S&P 500.As Chen became more familiar with investing by watching YouTube videos and reading blogs, he began to explore options trading, which took off for him in 2020.By 2021, between his retirement and brokerage accounts, he had a net profit of $76,925.88 from options trading, according to records viewed by Insider. Chen estimates that about 5% came from dividends paid by the underlying stocks he had call options on, 10% from capital gains from selling the call options, and the remainder came from premiums.He's now the founder of Call To Leap, a website that teaches financial education around saving and investing, including options trading, for a fee.Throughout 2020 and 2021, Chen mainly focused on selling covered calls, an options trade where he purchased shares of a stock and then sold a contract that gave the rights to another trader to purchase those shares at a certain price by a certain date. In exchange, he received a premium for that contract. Most of the time, Chen's shares weren't purchased away. This strategy not only allowed him to own stocks that appreciated over time, but also collect a fee on the call option.He was also purchasing LEAPS, longer-term options contracts of one year or more that gave him the right to purchase shares away from another trader.Covered calls were more profitable when the stock market was trending either neutral or bullish because the value of the underlying stock was increasing. Chen could put his shares to work by collecting premiums and if sold, also collecting capital gains.LEAPS were highly profitable for him during the bull market that engulfed most of 2020 and 2021 because they enabled him to hold the rights to purchase shares at a designated price in the future. Since share prices were rising rapidly and faster than the contract decayed, he often didn't buy the shares but resold that contract at a higher value for a profit.This year, stock investors haven't been as bullish. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 has tumbled by about 19% and the Dow by about 14%.Chen told Insider he noticed the downtrend on January 18, after the support line in the S&P 500's technical chart broke, indicating a reversal pattern to a downward trend. He was also aware that the Federal Reserve was planning on raising interest rates to combat rising inflation. This meant that the downward trend could be strung out.These two factors led him to pivot his options strategy to set up what's known as bear call spreads. This is an advanced options trade that is more ideal in a bear market because it allows a trader to profit from a falling stock price and the time decay of the contract without the risk of incurring unrealized losses due to the falling price of the underlying stock. This is because Chen doesn't need to actually buy the shares he's placing under contract.Chen says the strategy isn't for everybody. This approach is for traders who have already been options trading in bullish and neutral markets and want to pivot to doing it in a bear market. Additionally, users often won't have access to this option in their brokerage account if they haven't been trading more basic options.Setting up bear call spreadsSetting up a bear call spread requires two main steps.First, Chen needs to buy an out-of-the-money call option, which will act as a proxy for the shares he plans to sell under contract. He needs to do this because brokerages often won't allow traders to sell a call option contract unless they can cover themselves. Since Chen doesn't want to buy the actual shares, he purchases a covered call for the same number of shares he plans on selling. The strike price, which is the price he agrees to pay, is out-of-the-money because it's above the stock price.In reality, he has no intention of executing this contract because it has a high strike price. Yet he chooses it because it has a lower premium.Once he's covered, he sells a different out-of-the-money call option that matches the number of shares and expiry date from the call option he purchased. This time, he sets a strike price that would earn him a premium higher than the purchased contract.In the event that the trader who purchased Chen's call option decides to exercise the contract and take possession of the shares, Chen would need to purchase those shares to deliver on the contract. To avoid being in a position where he overpays for the stock, he sets up a third step, which is a buy stop order slightly below the strike price of the call option he sold. Traders who don't take this third step would have to purchase the shares at market value and risk incurring a realized loss.\"My intention is to not let the stock [price] surpass my sold call option contract strike [price],\" Chen said.One example of him setting up a bear call spread was on June 26, when he bought four call options for AMD with a strike price of $150 that expired on July 15. At the time, AMD was trading at around $87. The contracts cost him $82.64. Once he established his proxy, he sold four call options of AMD at a strike price of $125. The premium he earned on that contract was $525.34.He then set up a buy stop order at a share price of $124. This way, if his shares were called away, he'd sell them with a capital gain of $1 on each share for a total of $400. However, in this instance, Chen kept his shares. Therefore, after deducting the cost of the call order he purchased, his total profit from the premium was $442.70, according to records viewed by Insider. In the event his buy order was executed appropriately and his shares were also sold, he could have had a total profit of $842.70.Chen will also reduce his risk by purchasing his call option back when the contract loses 50% to 80% of its value. This allows him to pay less than what he initially sold the call option for and close the contract. In turn, reducing the number of days he's at risk. He sets expiration dates that range from 30 to 45 days out.Chen teaches his students to pick expiration dates two to five weeks out because that's when the theta decay, which is the rate of decline in the value of the contract over time, is fastest, while the premium collected is optimal. The goal is to get both options to expire worthless as fast as possible during a downward trend.RisksOne of the main risks Chen considers when setting up the options trade is the possibility of a buy stop order not executing. This could happen if the stock's price moves up too quickly. To avoid this, he will set up a buy stop market order rather than a buy stop limit order. The former will purchase the shares once it surpasses the set price even if it's slightly above. On the other end, the latter will only execute a buy order at exactly the set price.While his risk is reduced, he may end up paying slightly over the price he intended. So far this incident has only happened to him once when Nike's (NKE) stock price shot up in September of 2020. Chen told Insider that by the time the buy order was executed, it was above his contract's strike price. Therefore, he purchased the shares at a higher price than what he sold them for.The second risk happens when a buy order executes while the stock's price is rising but then the price drops before the trader decides to purchase his shares away. This could leave Chen with an unrealized loss.For example, in 2020, Chen recalls setting up a bear call spread on AMD. The buy stop ordered was triggered but the shares were not purchased away from him. He was left with AMD shares that didn't move up in value. To mitigate his losses, he converted the trade into a covered call and kept collecting premiums on it until the shares were called away, sending him into a net positive.3 criteria for picking the underlying stocksIn the event Chen ends up with an executed buy stop order but the shares aren't sold, he wants to ensure he's still holding stocks that have a higher probability of appreciating in the long term. Therefore, he sticks to what he believes are quality stocks.He picks stocks that are in the S&P 500 or the Dow Jones Industrial Average because there is more institutional involvement and they have a higher probability of increasing in the long term.He picks companies with strong fundamentals, which include consistent revenue growth and selling high-demand products or services.The company's historical stock chart has a strong upward trend, especially over the past five years.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":687,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9075488241,"gmtCreate":1658241299983,"gmtModify":1676536127158,"author":{"id":"3573877891823690","authorId":"3573877891823690","name":"waiwaiho","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b112a07bf435c07a2caef2264c1f3d2b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573877891823690","authorIdStr":"3573877891823690"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like, thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Pls like, thanks&nbsp;","text":"Pls like, thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9075488241","repostId":"1128013391","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1217,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9042518353,"gmtCreate":1656497121373,"gmtModify":1676535840623,"author":{"id":"3573877891823690","authorId":"3573877891823690","name":"waiwaiho","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b112a07bf435c07a2caef2264c1f3d2b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573877891823690","authorIdStr":"3573877891823690"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like,thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Pls like,thanks&nbsp;","text":"Pls like,thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9042518353","repostId":"2247335031","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2247335031","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1656515616,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2247335031?lang=&edition=full_marsco","pubTime":"2022-06-29 23:13","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: 5 Reasons To Buy, 2 Reasons To Sell","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2247335031","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"IntroductionAlibaba (NYSE:BABA) (OTCPK:BABAF) is one of the most contentious holdings in my portfoli","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Introduction</h2><p>Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) (OTCPK:BABAF) is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the most contentious holdings in my portfolio. For starters, Alibaba is the only Chinese stock I own [having initiated a small position in mid-November 2021]. Secondly, I believe that Alibaba&#39;s stock is ridiculously cheap based on its business fundamentals. However, I am still not entirely convinced about this investment due to macroeconomic and regulatory headwinds in China. The consensus noise in broader investment media is very bearish for Chinese tech stocks, and I don&#39;t think the sentiment will improve anytime soon.</p><p>After analyzing Alibaba&#39;s Q4 numbers, I performed an exercise to nail down the bullish and bearish arguments for a long-term investment in Alibaba. In today&#39;s note, we will be discussing five reasons to buy and two reasons to sell Alibaba&#39;s stock at current levels. Here we go.</p><h2>5 Reasons To Buy Alibaba</h2><ul><li><b>Solid Business Fundamentals</b></li></ul><p>In Q4, Alibaba reported an earnings miss; however, revenue came in stronger-than-expected at $32.1B (vs. analyst estimates of ~$31B). As you may know, the Chinese economy is still suffering from draconian lockdowns, inflation, and slowing consumer demand. Despite all the noise around its business, Alibaba&#39;s fundamentals remain robust. After experiencing a pull forward in demand during the first wave of COVID, the fact that Alibaba is still growing its revenues is heartening. With inflation causing intense margin pressures, Alibaba&#39;s gross and operating margins declined considerably in Q4; however, these numbers are still very healthy. As the Chinese economy opens up and resumes growth, I think Alibaba&#39;s revenues and margins will start expanding once again.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35f832b08e66d361bbb5c51f7355f977\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p>In recent quarters, Alibaba&#39;s margins have come under pressure, which in turn has led to compression in free cash flow generation. For Q4, Alibaba reported a negative free cash flow of -$1.18B; however, if you look at historical trends, Alibaba has burnt cash in Q4 for the last three years, and this year&#39;s burn is the smallest. At the end of the day, Alibaba is still a free cash flow machine.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4b8f7d033c114324988b2dc1f3407c8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p>With roughly $50B of net cash, Alibaba has little to no liquidity or bankruptcy risk. Due to a violent valuation reset in its stock, Alibaba&#39;s management has adopted a more aggressive capital return program (upsizing its share buyback authorization to $25B in March 2022).</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52a65cd79cb85db43d377e4030d3f406\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p>According to Alibaba&#39;s Deputy CFO, Toby Xu -</p><blockquote>The upsized share buyback underscores our confidence in Alibaba&#39;s long-term, sustainable growth potential and value creation. Alibaba&#39;s stock price does not fairly reflect the company&#39;s value given our robust financial health and expansion plans.</blockquote><p>I agree with Toby. Let&#39;s find out why.</p><ul><li><b>Dirt Cheap Valuations</b></li></ul><p>When I rated Alibaba a strong buy before its earnings report, the stock was trading at a ridiculously low P/FCF multiple of ~8.55x. I must reiterate that I had no clue as to what Alibaba would report in Q4 or how the stock would react to these numbers. However, the valuation made Alibaba a no-brainer, and it still is a no-brainer (despite the +40% move in Alibaba&#39;s stock). Today, Alibaba is trading at ~14x P/FCF (well below the 3-yr median P/FCF of ~21x).</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97154790c41df6813966a9c0226a5d43\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p>Honestly, I don&#39;t think Alibaba&#39;s Q4 numbers justify the quick 40% bounce we have seen in its stock over the last few days; however, Alibaba&#39;s valuation remains depressed, and the upside move may continue in the near future (quantitative factor data and technical charts suggest so).</p><ul><li><b>Improving Quant Factor Grades</b></li></ul><p>After the recent run-up in Alibaba&#39;s stock, its momentum factor grade has improved from &#34;C-&#34; to &#34;B+&#34;. I previously highlighted the positive trend in Alibaba&#39;s momentum factor grade as a potential sign of a turnaround in the stock. While momentum may continue to carry the stock higher towards the $140-$150 range, Alibaba&#39;s factor grades for valuation and (earnings) revisions are getting weaker.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c7da606c3f053f0884d0de15d76984d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"251\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha Quant Rating</p><p>With profitability and growth factor grades holding up, Alibaba&#39;s stock could ride the momentum train higher. Furthermore, Alibaba&#39;s fundamentals are likely to rebound in the coming 4-8 quarters. Hence, I view the current quantitative factor grades for Alibaba favorably, despite an overall rating of &#39;Hold&#39; [3.30] on SA&#39;s Quant Rating System.</p><ul><li><b>A Trend Reversal On The Technical Charts</b></li></ul><p>Alibaba&#39;s technical chart is showing signs of a major trend reversal with a breakout from its downward falling wedge pattern. While I don&#39;t expect Alibaba&#39;s stock to go up in a straight line, I will be looking for the stock to recapture its 200-EMA of ~$130 to confirm the trend reversal.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da230de0660c27b79cb293f0e3a75813\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On 25th May 2022, I wrote the following:</p><blockquote>As of today, Alibaba is still stuck in the downward wedge pattern; however, there are signs of RSI divergence, and the MACD is also moving up slowly as the stock hovers above a demand zone (shown on the chart). While I do not see a trend reversal just yet, I think the technical setup is improving. A breakout to the upside could send Alibaba back up to $140-$150 in quick order.</blockquote><p>Today, the RSI and MACD divergence that we observed a month ago is far more evident. While this bounce may yet fizzle out in the coming weeks and months, I think the technical setup is favorable for bulls (especially for ones with a long-term investment horizon).</p><ul><li><b>Signs of regulatory policy relaxation</b></li></ul><p>Over the past few months, the Chinese government has been seemingly easing up on its ongoing technology crackdown. Out of the five reasons I laid out in support of buying Alibaba, I think policy relaxation is probably the weakest one due to its abstract nature. However, if we do see a policy reversal from the Chinese government or even an easing of its technology crackdown, Alibaba could get rid of a major overhang on its stock, and if the negative sentiment abates, the stock could re-rate higher to a normalized valuation multiple.</p><h2>2 Reasons To Sell Alibaba</h2><p>Considering Alibaba&#39;s healthy fundamentals, dirt-cheap valuation, improving quant factor grades, and bullish technical setup, I don&#39;t think there is a straightforward, data-driven bear thesis against Alibaba. However, if I had to look for reasons to sell Alibaba at this throwaway price, they would have to be extrinsic reasons.</p><ul><li><b>Poor Macroeconomic Environment</b></li></ul><p>Like most businesses, Alibaba is exposed to macroeconomic factors. With most of its revenues coming from China, Alibaba&#39;s sales growth and margins could remain unimpressive for the foreseeable future. If Alibaba&#39;s free cash flows were to contract further in the event of a recession, the stock could go lower even if multiples were to return to normalized levels.</p><ul><li><b>Potential Delisting in the US</b></li></ul><p>While Alibaba has not been named as a (potential) violator of the HFCAA (Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act) by the US SEC, the risk of potential delisting from US exchanges is non-zero for Alibaba. Institutional investors like Blackrock have exited Alibaba&#39;s ADRs and invested in Alibaba directly on Hong Kong exchanges. In my view, a potential delisting of ADRs is not a significant risk for Alibaba, but if you wish to get ahead of this risk, you should look to sell Alibaba ADRs [and consider investing in Alibaba on Hong Kong exchanges].</p><h2>Bottom Line</h2><p>Even after a rapid 40%+ move off its lows, fundamental, quantitative, and technical data render Alibaba&#39;s stock a &#34;Buy&#34;. As we saw today, the good in Alibaba (reasons to buy) far outweighs the bad (reasons to sell). Hence, I continue to be bullish on Alibaba.</p><p><b>Key Takeaway:</b> I rate Alibaba a strong buy at $117.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: 5 Reasons To Buy, 2 Reasons To Sell</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: 5 Reasons To Buy, 2 Reasons To Sell\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-29 23:13 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4520712-alibaba-stock-5-reasons-buy-2-reasons-sell><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>IntroductionAlibaba (NYSE:BABA) (OTCPK:BABAF) is one of the most contentious holdings in my portfolio. For starters, Alibaba is the only Chinese stock I own [having initiated a small position in mid-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4520712-alibaba-stock-5-reasons-buy-2-reasons-sell\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4520712-alibaba-stock-5-reasons-buy-2-reasons-sell","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2247335031","content_text":"IntroductionAlibaba (NYSE:BABA) (OTCPK:BABAF) is one of the most contentious holdings in my portfolio. For starters, Alibaba is the only Chinese stock I own [having initiated a small position in mid-November 2021]. Secondly, I believe that Alibaba's stock is ridiculously cheap based on its business fundamentals. However, I am still not entirely convinced about this investment due to macroeconomic and regulatory headwinds in China. The consensus noise in broader investment media is very bearish for Chinese tech stocks, and I don't think the sentiment will improve anytime soon.After analyzing Alibaba's Q4 numbers, I performed an exercise to nail down the bullish and bearish arguments for a long-term investment in Alibaba. In today's note, we will be discussing five reasons to buy and two reasons to sell Alibaba's stock at current levels. Here we go.5 Reasons To Buy AlibabaSolid Business FundamentalsIn Q4, Alibaba reported an earnings miss; however, revenue came in stronger-than-expected at $32.1B (vs. analyst estimates of ~$31B). As you may know, the Chinese economy is still suffering from draconian lockdowns, inflation, and slowing consumer demand. Despite all the noise around its business, Alibaba's fundamentals remain robust. After experiencing a pull forward in demand during the first wave of COVID, the fact that Alibaba is still growing its revenues is heartening. With inflation causing intense margin pressures, Alibaba's gross and operating margins declined considerably in Q4; however, these numbers are still very healthy. As the Chinese economy opens up and resumes growth, I think Alibaba's revenues and margins will start expanding once again.YChartsIn recent quarters, Alibaba's margins have come under pressure, which in turn has led to compression in free cash flow generation. For Q4, Alibaba reported a negative free cash flow of -$1.18B; however, if you look at historical trends, Alibaba has burnt cash in Q4 for the last three years, and this year's burn is the smallest. At the end of the day, Alibaba is still a free cash flow machine.YChartsWith roughly $50B of net cash, Alibaba has little to no liquidity or bankruptcy risk. Due to a violent valuation reset in its stock, Alibaba's management has adopted a more aggressive capital return program (upsizing its share buyback authorization to $25B in March 2022).YChartsAccording to Alibaba's Deputy CFO, Toby Xu -The upsized share buyback underscores our confidence in Alibaba's long-term, sustainable growth potential and value creation. Alibaba's stock price does not fairly reflect the company's value given our robust financial health and expansion plans.I agree with Toby. Let's find out why.Dirt Cheap ValuationsWhen I rated Alibaba a strong buy before its earnings report, the stock was trading at a ridiculously low P/FCF multiple of ~8.55x. I must reiterate that I had no clue as to what Alibaba would report in Q4 or how the stock would react to these numbers. However, the valuation made Alibaba a no-brainer, and it still is a no-brainer (despite the +40% move in Alibaba's stock). Today, Alibaba is trading at ~14x P/FCF (well below the 3-yr median P/FCF of ~21x).YChartsHonestly, I don't think Alibaba's Q4 numbers justify the quick 40% bounce we have seen in its stock over the last few days; however, Alibaba's valuation remains depressed, and the upside move may continue in the near future (quantitative factor data and technical charts suggest so).Improving Quant Factor GradesAfter the recent run-up in Alibaba's stock, its momentum factor grade has improved from \"C-\" to \"B+\". I previously highlighted the positive trend in Alibaba's momentum factor grade as a potential sign of a turnaround in the stock. While momentum may continue to carry the stock higher towards the $140-$150 range, Alibaba's factor grades for valuation and (earnings) revisions are getting weaker.Seeking Alpha Quant RatingWith profitability and growth factor grades holding up, Alibaba's stock could ride the momentum train higher. Furthermore, Alibaba's fundamentals are likely to rebound in the coming 4-8 quarters. Hence, I view the current quantitative factor grades for Alibaba favorably, despite an overall rating of 'Hold' [3.30] on SA's Quant Rating System.A Trend Reversal On The Technical ChartsAlibaba's technical chart is showing signs of a major trend reversal with a breakout from its downward falling wedge pattern. While I don't expect Alibaba's stock to go up in a straight line, I will be looking for the stock to recapture its 200-EMA of ~$130 to confirm the trend reversal.On 25th May 2022, I wrote the following:As of today, Alibaba is still stuck in the downward wedge pattern; however, there are signs of RSI divergence, and the MACD is also moving up slowly as the stock hovers above a demand zone (shown on the chart). While I do not see a trend reversal just yet, I think the technical setup is improving. A breakout to the upside could send Alibaba back up to $140-$150 in quick order.Today, the RSI and MACD divergence that we observed a month ago is far more evident. While this bounce may yet fizzle out in the coming weeks and months, I think the technical setup is favorable for bulls (especially for ones with a long-term investment horizon).Signs of regulatory policy relaxationOver the past few months, the Chinese government has been seemingly easing up on its ongoing technology crackdown. Out of the five reasons I laid out in support of buying Alibaba, I think policy relaxation is probably the weakest one due to its abstract nature. However, if we do see a policy reversal from the Chinese government or even an easing of its technology crackdown, Alibaba could get rid of a major overhang on its stock, and if the negative sentiment abates, the stock could re-rate higher to a normalized valuation multiple.2 Reasons To Sell AlibabaConsidering Alibaba's healthy fundamentals, dirt-cheap valuation, improving quant factor grades, and bullish technical setup, I don't think there is a straightforward, data-driven bear thesis against Alibaba. However, if I had to look for reasons to sell Alibaba at this throwaway price, they would have to be extrinsic reasons.Poor Macroeconomic EnvironmentLike most businesses, Alibaba is exposed to macroeconomic factors. With most of its revenues coming from China, Alibaba's sales growth and margins could remain unimpressive for the foreseeable future. If Alibaba's free cash flows were to contract further in the event of a recession, the stock could go lower even if multiples were to return to normalized levels.Potential Delisting in the USWhile Alibaba has not been named as a (potential) violator of the HFCAA (Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act) by the US SEC, the risk of potential delisting from US exchanges is non-zero for Alibaba. Institutional investors like Blackrock have exited Alibaba's ADRs and invested in Alibaba directly on Hong Kong exchanges. In my view, a potential delisting of ADRs is not a significant risk for Alibaba, but if you wish to get ahead of this risk, you should look to sell Alibaba ADRs [and consider investing in Alibaba on Hong Kong exchanges].Bottom LineEven after a rapid 40%+ move off its lows, fundamental, quantitative, and technical data render Alibaba's stock a \"Buy\". As we saw today, the good in Alibaba (reasons to buy) far outweighs the bad (reasons to sell). Hence, I continue to be bullish on Alibaba.Key Takeaway: I rate Alibaba a strong buy at $117.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1359,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":true}