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Shang1805

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- Shang1805Shang1805
  ·10-09
  $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ As competition between US and China AI supremacy heats up. The US cannot lose the AI race, the only way to win China is to keep investing period.
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- Shang1805Shang1805
  ·09-20
  Next week $130!!!!
  Semiconductor Shares Rallied, With Nvidia Jumping 5%
  Semiconductor shares rallied in morning trading. Arm rose over 6%; Nvidia, ASML rose about 5%; Applied Materials, Super Micro, Broadcom, AMD rose over 4%.The gains came after the Fed voted in favor of a half-point cut over a quarter-point, signaling to investors that the central bank is now ready to prioritize propping up the economy over curbing inflation.That's seen as good news for the whole market, including Nvidia and other semiconductor makers.The PHLX Semiconductor Index, a gauge tracking
  Semiconductor Shares Rallied, With Nvidia Jumping 5%
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- Shang1805Shang1805
  ·08-26
  This quarter may be the greatest quarter in history for Nvdia.
  Nvidia May Fail To Live Up To Its Pre-Earnings Hype
  Nvidia is expected to report strong fiscal second quarter 2025 results, with earnings and revenue more than doubling from a year ago.Analysts anticipate high expectations for Nvidia's guidance, with e
  Nvidia May Fail To Live Up To Its Pre-Earnings Hype
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- Shang1805Shang1805
  ·2023-09-12
  $Apple(AAPL)$ without any new breakthrough, I am afraid Apple share price will be lackluster.
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The US cannot lose the AI race, the only way to win China is to keep investing period.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/358244938436800","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":14,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":351143702110304,"gmtCreate":1726766019998,"gmtModify":1726766023683,"author":{"id":"3574283949644007","authorId":"3574283949644007","name":"Shang1805","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30b262b3906340143c20ff5c1ad79c6b","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574283949644007","authorIdStr":"3574283949644007"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Next week $130!!!!","listText":"Next week $130!!!!","text":"Next week $130!!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/351143702110304","repostId":"1100808952","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1100808952","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1726757237,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1100808952?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-19 22:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Semiconductor Shares Rallied, With Nvidia Jumping 5%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100808952","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Semiconductor shares rallied in morning trading. Arm rose over 6%; Nvidia, ASML rose about 5%; Applied Materials, Super Micro, Broadcom, AMD rose over 4%.The gains came after the Fed voted in favor of a half-point cut over a quarter-point, signaling to investors that the central bank is now ready to prioritize propping up the economy over curbing inflation.That's seen as good news for the whole market, including Nvidia and other semiconductor makers.The PHLX Semiconductor Index, a gauge tracking","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Semiconductor shares rallied on Thursday. Nvidia, AMD, ASML rose over 5%; Applied Materials, TSMC, Broadcom rose over 4%.</p><p>The gains came after the Fed voted in favor of a half-point cut over a quarter-point, signaling to investors that the central bank is now ready to prioritize propping up the economy over curbing inflation.</p><p>That&#39;s seen as good news for the whole market, including Nvidia and other semiconductor makers.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/433b874c15b5faf50fb5005dec264353\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"646\"/></p><p>The PHLX Semiconductor Index, a gauge tracking stock prices across the sector, has tumbled about 16% over the past three months, with chip companies&#39; shares dragged down by worries that an economic slump could slow the rapid rise in demand for artificial intelligence products. The Fed&#39;s latest move -- and signal that it will reduce borrowing costs by another 50 basis points over the rest of 2024 -- could ease those fears.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Semiconductor Shares Rallied, With Nvidia Jumping 5%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSemiconductor Shares Rallied, With Nvidia Jumping 5%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-09-19 22:47</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Semiconductor shares rallied on Thursday. Nvidia, AMD, ASML rose over 5%; Applied Materials, TSMC, Broadcom rose over 4%.</p><p>The gains came after the Fed voted in favor of a half-point cut over a quarter-point, signaling to investors that the central bank is now ready to prioritize propping up the economy over curbing inflation.</p><p>That&#39;s seen as good news for the whole market, including Nvidia and other semiconductor makers.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/433b874c15b5faf50fb5005dec264353\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"646\"/></p><p>The PHLX Semiconductor Index, a gauge tracking stock prices across the sector, has tumbled about 16% over the past three months, with chip companies&#39; shares dragged down by worries that an economic slump could slow the rapid rise in demand for artificial intelligence products. The Fed&#39;s latest move -- and signal that it will reduce borrowing costs by another 50 basis points over the rest of 2024 -- could ease those fears.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AVGO":"博通","AMD":"美国超微公司","NVDA":"英伟达","SMCI":"超微电脑","ARM":"ARM Holdings Ltd","TSM":"台积电","MRVL":"迈威尔科技","QCOM":"高通","ASML":"阿斯麦"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100808952","content_text":"Semiconductor shares rallied on Thursday. Nvidia, AMD, ASML rose over 5%; Applied Materials, TSMC, Broadcom rose over 4%.The gains came after the Fed voted in favor of a half-point cut over a quarter-point, signaling to investors that the central bank is now ready to prioritize propping up the economy over curbing inflation.That's seen as good news for the whole market, including Nvidia and other semiconductor makers.The PHLX Semiconductor Index, a gauge tracking stock prices across the sector, has tumbled about 16% over the past three months, with chip companies' shares dragged down by worries that an economic slump could slow the rapid rise in demand for artificial intelligence products. The Fed's latest move -- and signal that it will reduce borrowing costs by another 50 basis points over the rest of 2024 -- could ease those fears.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":27,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":342572993315048,"gmtCreate":1724678627477,"gmtModify":1724678631282,"author":{"id":"3574283949644007","authorId":"3574283949644007","name":"Shang1805","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30b262b3906340143c20ff5c1ad79c6b","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574283949644007","authorIdStr":"3574283949644007"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"This quarter may be the greatest quarter in history for Nvdia.&nbsp;","listText":"This quarter may be the greatest quarter in history for Nvdia.&nbsp;","text":"This quarter may be the greatest quarter in history for Nvdia.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/342572993315048","repostId":"2462626136","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2462626136","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1724628883,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2462626136?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-08-26 07:34","market":"nz","language":"en","title":"Nvidia May Fail To Live Up To Its Pre-Earnings Hype","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2462626136","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Nvidia is expected to report strong fiscal second quarter 2025 results, with earnings and revenue more than doubling from a year ago.Analysts anticipate high expectations for Nvidia's guidance, with e","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Nvidia is expected to report strong fiscal second quarter 2025 results, with earnings and revenue more than doubling from a year ago.</p></li><li><p>Analysts anticipate high expectations for Nvidia&#39;s guidance, with earnings and revenue growth projections for the fiscal third quarter of 2025.</p></li><li><p>Implied volatility levels for Nvidia stock are high, with options dynamics indicating potential resistance at the $130 price level post-earnings.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f1cd66fb76fb9c3656779aa6ac145d6d\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/></p><p>JHVEPhoto</p><p></p><p>Given its solid results and soaring stock price, Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) has set a very high bar. That bar could be even higher this quarter because it seems increasingly difficult for the company to surprise investors.</p><p>Nvidia is expected to report fiscal second-quarter 2025 results on August 28th, and analysts expect another robust quarter for the company. Earnings and revenue are expected to more than double versus a year ago, to $0.65 per share on revenue of $28.7 billion.</p><p>Guidance will be critical because expectations are high, and the market has gotten used to big beats and even stronger guidance. For the fiscal third quarter of 2025, analysts expect earnings growth of 77% to $0.71 per share, on revenue growth of 75.4% to $31.8 billion.</p><p>Adjusted gross margins are also an important metric, and right now, analysts see fiscal second-quarter adjusted gross margins of 75.5% and 75% for the fiscal third quarter.</p><h2 id=\"id_3940723290\">Shrinking Upside Surprises</h2><p>The one thing that has been noticeable over the last few quarters is that beat rates have steadily declined. This means that the revenue that Nvidia is reporting is coming in closer to analysts&#39; estimates, meaning the upside surprise is shrinking.</p><p>Additionally, guidance surprises have also tapered off over the last four quarters. For instance, in the fiscal third quarter of 2024, guidance was 22% higher than analysts&#39; forecast, while guidance last quarter was just 8.5% higher than analysts&#39; estimates. This is a sign that analysts are starting to catch up to the company&#39;s anticipated guidance, which sets the bar higher for each quarter and tougher to beat.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07602f2a5f5ccd39b9292971674fac8e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"232\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_3274521268\">High Levels of Implied Volatility</h2><p>The market seems a bit more uncertain about the company&#39;s results this quarter and is pricing in a greater post-earnings move of about 9%. Based on its closing price of $129.37 on August 23, 2024, the stock could trade in a range of $117 to $141.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/74311574fd9a1583f6e8b592251d92e2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"343\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p></p><p>This results from very high implied volatility levels for options expiring on August 30. Currently, implied volatility for the $130 calls strike price is running around 100%, and implied volatility is likely to continue to rise as we approach the earnings date on August 28. This is also one reason why Nvidia stock has been unable to breach the $130 level in the past few trading sessions. The gamma level at $130 is very large, and these significant levels of option gamma often serve as support and resistance levels.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/26c2a7f6346ca54a48c96a08eafd430b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"278\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_34633815\">Options Dynamics</h2><p>Many call deltas are built at the $130 price level, which is also currently helping to serve as resistance for the market. These delta and gamma levels are likely to grow larger as we head into Nvidia&#39;s earnings due to the rising implied volatility levels. This means that options hedging flows to support the stock and help keep it around $130 in results.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4850df5d32e90376563d084deae548c4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"279\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p></p><p>However, the significant risk post results is what happens to that implied volatility. Because once the results are released and the event risk passes, the implied volatility will fall dramatically. Historically, implied volatility has been almost cut in half. Because of how option pricing works, once the implied volatility levels fall, both the premiums for puts and calls will drop dramatically, which will reduce the amount of delta and gamma in the market to serve as support and resistance. It will mean that market maker hedging flows will likely need to be reduced, since so much of the positioning currently is in the call options.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/293b47c4b948562e6fd569ec66c2974b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"232\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p></p><p>In fact, the current $130 call premium for expiration on August 30 is $6.82 per contract. That means that the stock needs to rise above $136.82 by August 30 for a new buyer of those calls to earn a profit, or roughly 6% from its price on Friday. However, if that implied volatility falls to 50%, the contract becomes worth just $3.61, and when adjusting for time value, the calls become worth just $2.00 per contract.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6d34202f7ffe762651533e7221fada2d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p></p><p>This means that if the stock doesn&#39;t rise beyond $137 following results, at least based on the current market, the $130 calls will lose a ton of value following the release of the results, no matter how good or how bad the actual report is. That could result in a lot of hedging flows to come for sale. The setup last quarter was very similar, and what saved the stock that time was the 10-for-1 stock split, which helped to provide the fuel needed to push the stock higher.</p><h2 id=\"id_1668259140\">Peak Growth</h2><p>Additionally, it is clear that Nvidia has passed its peak revenue growth for this cycle, and historically, the stock&#39;s price-to-sales ratio tends to expand and contract with the revenue growth rate. It isn&#39;t to say that Nvidia&#39;s stock will return to 5 or 6 times forward sales, but it does suggest that the current price-to-sales rate of 21 times over the last twelve months is probably due to come over the next several quarters.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/22ab6680222d5273abaa3598effffa71\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"343\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p></p><p>Perhaps the multiple returns to something closer to a sales multiple of closer to 10, but if revenue grows as analysts suggest to around $225 billion, the stock could maintain a market cap close to that approximately $2 trillion region. But much of that will be determined by how fast sales grow in the future.</p><p>But at this point, the long-term fundamentals of the business probably do not matter much. What appears to matter much more, at least for now, is the momentum behind the stock and, more importantly, the options positioning around the stock. Based on current positioning, Nvidia will need to reverse its current trend and provide a bigger upside surprise on both actual revenue and its guidance to get the stock to the wall of resistance around $130 to $135.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia May Fail To Live Up To Its Pre-Earnings Hype</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia May Fail To Live Up To Its Pre-Earnings Hype\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-26 07:34 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4716917-nvidia-may-fail-to-live-up-to-its-pre-earnings-hype><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nvidia is expected to report strong fiscal second quarter 2025 results, with earnings and revenue more than doubling from a year ago.Analysts anticipate high expectations for Nvidia's guidance, with ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4716917-nvidia-may-fail-to-live-up-to-its-pre-earnings-hype\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4716917-nvidia-may-fail-to-live-up-to-its-pre-earnings-hype","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2462626136","content_text":"Nvidia is expected to report strong fiscal second quarter 2025 results, with earnings and revenue more than doubling from a year ago.Analysts anticipate high expectations for Nvidia's guidance, with earnings and revenue growth projections for the fiscal third quarter of 2025.Implied volatility levels for Nvidia stock are high, with options dynamics indicating potential resistance at the $130 price level post-earnings.JHVEPhotoGiven its solid results and soaring stock price, Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) has set a very high bar. That bar could be even higher this quarter because it seems increasingly difficult for the company to surprise investors.Nvidia is expected to report fiscal second-quarter 2025 results on August 28th, and analysts expect another robust quarter for the company. Earnings and revenue are expected to more than double versus a year ago, to $0.65 per share on revenue of $28.7 billion.Guidance will be critical because expectations are high, and the market has gotten used to big beats and even stronger guidance. For the fiscal third quarter of 2025, analysts expect earnings growth of 77% to $0.71 per share, on revenue growth of 75.4% to $31.8 billion.Adjusted gross margins are also an important metric, and right now, analysts see fiscal second-quarter adjusted gross margins of 75.5% and 75% for the fiscal third quarter.Shrinking Upside SurprisesThe one thing that has been noticeable over the last few quarters is that beat rates have steadily declined. This means that the revenue that Nvidia is reporting is coming in closer to analysts' estimates, meaning the upside surprise is shrinking.Additionally, guidance surprises have also tapered off over the last four quarters. For instance, in the fiscal third quarter of 2024, guidance was 22% higher than analysts' forecast, while guidance last quarter was just 8.5% higher than analysts' estimates. This is a sign that analysts are starting to catch up to the company's anticipated guidance, which sets the bar higher for each quarter and tougher to beat.BloombergHigh Levels of Implied VolatilityThe market seems a bit more uncertain about the company's results this quarter and is pricing in a greater post-earnings move of about 9%. Based on its closing price of $129.37 on August 23, 2024, the stock could trade in a range of $117 to $141.BloombergThis results from very high implied volatility levels for options expiring on August 30. Currently, implied volatility for the $130 calls strike price is running around 100%, and implied volatility is likely to continue to rise as we approach the earnings date on August 28. This is also one reason why Nvidia stock has been unable to breach the $130 level in the past few trading sessions. The gamma level at $130 is very large, and these significant levels of option gamma often serve as support and resistance levels.BloombergOptions DynamicsMany call deltas are built at the $130 price level, which is also currently helping to serve as resistance for the market. These delta and gamma levels are likely to grow larger as we head into Nvidia's earnings due to the rising implied volatility levels. This means that options hedging flows to support the stock and help keep it around $130 in results.BloombergHowever, the significant risk post results is what happens to that implied volatility. Because once the results are released and the event risk passes, the implied volatility will fall dramatically. Historically, implied volatility has been almost cut in half. Because of how option pricing works, once the implied volatility levels fall, both the premiums for puts and calls will drop dramatically, which will reduce the amount of delta and gamma in the market to serve as support and resistance. It will mean that market maker hedging flows will likely need to be reduced, since so much of the positioning currently is in the call options.BloombergIn fact, the current $130 call premium for expiration on August 30 is $6.82 per contract. That means that the stock needs to rise above $136.82 by August 30 for a new buyer of those calls to earn a profit, or roughly 6% from its price on Friday. However, if that implied volatility falls to 50%, the contract becomes worth just $3.61, and when adjusting for time value, the calls become worth just $2.00 per contract.BloombergThis means that if the stock doesn't rise beyond $137 following results, at least based on the current market, the $130 calls will lose a ton of value following the release of the results, no matter how good or how bad the actual report is. That could result in a lot of hedging flows to come for sale. The setup last quarter was very similar, and what saved the stock that time was the 10-for-1 stock split, which helped to provide the fuel needed to push the stock higher.Peak GrowthAdditionally, it is clear that Nvidia has passed its peak revenue growth for this cycle, and historically, the stock's price-to-sales ratio tends to expand and contract with the revenue growth rate. It isn't to say that Nvidia's stock will return to 5 or 6 times forward sales, but it does suggest that the current price-to-sales rate of 21 times over the last twelve months is probably due to come over the next several quarters.BloombergPerhaps the multiple returns to something closer to a sales multiple of closer to 10, but if revenue grows as analysts suggest to around $225 billion, the stock could maintain a market cap close to that approximately $2 trillion region. But much of that will be determined by how fast sales grow in the future.But at this point, the long-term fundamentals of the business probably do not matter much. What appears to matter much more, at least for now, is the momentum behind the stock and, more importantly, the options positioning around the stock. Based on current positioning, Nvidia will need to reverse its current trend and provide a bigger upside surprise on both actual revenue and its guidance to get the stock to the wall of resistance around $130 to $135.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":179,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":219091078787288,"gmtCreate":1694514944661,"gmtModify":1694518018092,"author":{"id":"3574283949644007","authorId":"3574283949644007","name":"Shang1805","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30b262b3906340143c20ff5c1ad79c6b","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574283949644007","authorIdStr":"3574283949644007"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> without any new breakthrough, I am afraid Apple share price will be lackluster.&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> without any new breakthrough, I am afraid Apple share price will be lackluster.&nbsp;","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$ without any new breakthrough, I am afraid Apple share price will be lackluster.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/219091078787288","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":189,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":true}