To The Moon
Home
News
TigerAI
Log In
Sign Up
han妈
+Follow
Posts · 370
Posts · 370
Following · 0
Following · 0
Followers · 0
Followers · 0
han妈
han妈
·
2022-07-14
q
U.S. stocks continued to fall, with the three major stock indexes all falling more than 2%
7月14日，美股继续走低，三大股指均跌超2%。美股油气板块跌幅居前，道达尔、英国石油跌超6%，马拉松石油跌超4%。
U.S. stocks continued to fall, with the three major stock indexes all falling more than 2%
看
2.26K
回复
Comment
点赞
Like
编组 21备份 2
Share
Report
han妈
han妈
·
2022-07-14
ok
U.S. stocks continued to fall, with the three major stock indexes all falling more than 2%
7月14日，美股继续走低，三大股指均跌超2%。美股油气板块跌幅居前，道达尔、英国石油跌超6%，马拉松石油跌超4%。
U.S. stocks continued to fall, with the three major stock indexes all falling more than 2%
看
3.41K
回复
Comment
点赞
1
编组 21备份 2
Share
Report
han妈
han妈
·
2022-07-11
q
Sorry, this post has been deleted
看
2.44K
回复
Comment
点赞
Like
编组 21备份 2
Share
Report
han妈
han妈
·
2022-07-11
OK
Macau gambling stocks fell, Melco Crown Entertainment fell more than 9%
7月11日，澳门濠赌股下挫，新濠博亚娱乐跌超9%，金沙集团跌超8%，永利度假村跌超7%。澳门宣布从11日0时起暂停工商业活动场所运作。澳门新冠肺炎疫情持续，澳门行政长官于上周六(9日)颁布批示，今日(
Macau gambling stocks fell, Melco Crown Entertainment fell more than 9%
看
3.29K
回复
Comment
点赞
1
编组 21备份 2
Share
Report
han妈
han妈
·
2022-07-10
a
Who is the next "domino card" after Abe's fall?
安倍倒下后日本央行将如何应对通胀的新挑战？对市场有何影响？
Who is the next "domino card" after Abe's fall?
看
2.22K
回复
Comment
点赞
Like
编组 21备份 2
Share
Report
han妈
han妈
·
2022-07-10
ok
Who is the next "domino card" after Abe's fall?
安倍倒下后日本央行将如何应对通胀的新挑战？对市场有何影响？
Who is the next "domino card" after Abe's fall?
看
2.70K
回复
Comment
点赞
1
编组 21备份 2
Share
Report
han妈
han妈
·
2022-06-27
y
The crisis is still fermenting! Hedge fund giants in the currency circle are on the verge of default
随着偿还6.7亿美元的最后期限临近，处于危机中心的币圈对冲基金正面临违约风险。
The crisis is still fermenting! Hedge fund giants in the currency circle are on the verge of default
看
2.36K
回复
Comment
点赞
1
编组 21备份 2
Share
Report
han妈
han妈
·
2022-06-22
k
Powell: The U.S. economy is very strong! The Fed needs to accelerate its rate hike
鲍威尔表示，美国经济非常强劲，能够应对更紧缩的政策；美联储坚定致力于让通胀率回到2%；继续加息是合适的，决定将逐次会议作出。鲍威尔表示，最新的通胀指标表明，美联储需要加快加息步伐。美联储将继续尽可能清晰地传达其想法。美联储需要灵活地对数据做出反应。他承认目前美国通货膨胀率过高，需要降低。
Powell: The U.S. economy is very strong! The Fed needs to accelerate its rate hike
看
2.61K
回复
Comment
点赞
Like
编组 21备份 2
Share
Report
han妈
han妈
·
2022-06-22
ｏ
Powell: The U.S. economy is very strong! The Fed needs to accelerate its rate hike
鲍威尔表示，美国经济非常强劲，能够应对更紧缩的政策；美联储坚定致力于让通胀率回到2%；继续加息是合适的，决定将逐次会议作出。鲍威尔表示，最新的通胀指标表明，美联储需要加快加息步伐。美联储将继续尽可能清晰地传达其想法。美联储需要灵活地对数据做出反应。他承认目前美国通货膨胀率过高，需要降低。
Powell: The U.S. economy is very strong! The Fed needs to accelerate its rate hike
看
2.66K
回复
Comment
点赞
1
编组 21备份 2
Share
Report
han妈
han妈
·
2022-06-18
ok
Reminder: Due to the US federal holiday Juneteenth, the US stock market will be closed for one day on June 20
这一节日是美国自1983年的“马丁·路德·金日”以来新增的第一个全国法定节日。
Reminder: Due to the US federal holiday Juneteenth, the US stock market will be closed for one day on June 20
看
2.09K
回复
Comment
点赞
Like
编组 21备份 2
Share
Report
Load more
Most Discussed
{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isCurrentUser":false,"userPageInfo":{"id":"3575347610709013","uuid":"3575347610709013","gmtCreate":1612253587147,"gmtModify":1758184082577,"name":"han妈","pinyin":"hanmhanma","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":11,"headSize":2,"tweetSize":370,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖（非转发）","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-3","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":" Tiger Idol","description":"Join the tiger community for 1500 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b40ae7da5bf081a1c84df14bf9e6367","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f160eceddd7c284a8e1136557615cfad","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11792805c468334a9b31c39f95a41c6a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.03.14","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.08.11","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-1","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Elite Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 30","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab0f87127c854ce3191a752d57b46edc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9835ce48b8c8743566d344ac7a7ba8c","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76754b53ce7a90019f132c1d2fbc698f","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"60.16%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":4,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"page":1,"watchlist":null,"tweetList":[{"id":9076110192,"gmtCreate":1657808496816,"gmtModify":1676536064988,"author":{"id":"3575347610709013","authorId":"3575347610709013","name":"han妈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575347610709013","authorIdStr":"3575347610709013"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"q","listText":"q","text":"q","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9076110192","repostId":"1142262047","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142262047","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1657807960,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1142262047?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-14 22:12","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"U.S. stocks continued to fall, with the three major stock indexes all falling more than 2%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142262047","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月14日，美股继续走低，三大股指均跌超2%。美股油气板块跌幅居前，道达尔、英国石油跌超6%，马拉松石油跌超4%。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On July 14, U.S. stocks continued to fall, with the three major stock indexes all falling by more than 2%. The U.S. oil and gas sector was among the top losers,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTA.UK\">Total</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BP\">British Oil</a>Fell more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPC\">Marathon Oil</a>Fell more than 4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd380b29b381ba998550798eb1768228\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"270\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. stocks continued to fall, with the three major stock indexes all falling more than 2%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. stocks continued to fall, with the three major stock indexes all falling more than 2%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-07-14 22:12</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On July 14, U.S. stocks continued to fall, with the three major stock indexes all falling by more than 2%. The U.S. oil and gas sector was among the top losers,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTA.UK\">Total</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BP\">British Oil</a>Fell more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPC\">Marathon Oil</a>Fell more than 4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd380b29b381ba998550798eb1768228\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"270\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/347452cc99fb488c45ccd900fcf3aa20","relate_stocks":{"BK4201":"综合性石油与天然气企业","MPC":"马拉松原油","BP":"英国石油","BK4138":"石油与天然气的炼制和营销",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142262047","content_text":"7月14日，美股继续走低，三大股指均跌超2%。美股油气板块跌幅居前，道达尔、英国石油跌超6%，马拉松石油跌超4%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MPC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"TTA.UK":0.9,"BP":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2260,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9076110971,"gmtCreate":1657808489793,"gmtModify":1676536064988,"author":{"id":"3575347610709013","authorId":"3575347610709013","name":"han妈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575347610709013","authorIdStr":"3575347610709013"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9076110971","repostId":"1142262047","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142262047","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1657807960,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1142262047?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-14 22:12","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"U.S. stocks continued to fall, with the three major stock indexes all falling more than 2%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142262047","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月14日，美股继续走低，三大股指均跌超2%。美股油气板块跌幅居前，道达尔、英国石油跌超6%，马拉松石油跌超4%。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On July 14, U.S. stocks continued to fall, with the three major stock indexes all falling by more than 2%. The U.S. oil and gas sector was among the top losers,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTA.UK\">Total</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BP\">British Oil</a>Fell more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPC\">Marathon Oil</a>Fell more than 4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd380b29b381ba998550798eb1768228\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"270\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. stocks continued to fall, with the three major stock indexes all falling more than 2%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. stocks continued to fall, with the three major stock indexes all falling more than 2%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-07-14 22:12</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On July 14, U.S. stocks continued to fall, with the three major stock indexes all falling by more than 2%. The U.S. oil and gas sector was among the top losers,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTA.UK\">Total</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BP\">British Oil</a>Fell more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPC\">Marathon Oil</a>Fell more than 4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd380b29b381ba998550798eb1768228\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"270\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/347452cc99fb488c45ccd900fcf3aa20","relate_stocks":{"BK4201":"综合性石油与天然气企业","MPC":"马拉松原油","BP":"英国石油","BK4138":"石油与天然气的炼制和营销",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142262047","content_text":"7月14日，美股继续走低，三大股指均跌超2%。美股油气板块跌幅居前，道达尔、英国石油跌超6%，马拉松石油跌超4%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MPC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"TTA.UK":0.9,"BP":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3406,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9071506308,"gmtCreate":1657549288904,"gmtModify":1676536023652,"author":{"id":"3575347610709013","authorId":"3575347610709013","name":"han妈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575347610709013","authorIdStr":"3575347610709013"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"q","listText":"q","text":"q","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9071506308","repostId":"1123417061","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2436,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9071506945,"gmtCreate":1657549279088,"gmtModify":1676536023651,"author":{"id":"3575347610709013","authorId":"3575347610709013","name":"han妈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575347610709013","authorIdStr":"3575347610709013"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9071506945","repostId":"1123417061","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123417061","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1657549065,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123417061?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-11 22:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Macau gambling stocks fell, Melco Crown Entertainment fell more than 9%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123417061","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月11日，澳门濠赌股下挫，新濠博亚娱乐跌超9%，金沙集团跌超8%，永利度假村跌超7%。澳门宣布从11日0时起暂停工商业活动场所运作。澳门新冠肺炎疫情持续，澳门行政长官于上周六(9日)颁布批示，今日(","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On July 11, Macau gambling stocks fell.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPEL\">Melco Resorts Entertainment</a>Fell more than 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LVS\">Sands Group</a>Fell more than 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WYNN\">Wynn Resort</a>Fell more than 7%. Macao announced the suspension of the operation of industrial and commercial venues from 0: 00 on the 11th.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53f80dbd28d59fe0fedac02f54be6086\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The epidemic situation of novel coronavirus pneumonia in Macao continues. The Chief Executive of Macao issued an instruction last Saturday (9th). From today (11th) to 18th, the operation of all industrial and commercial companies and places will be suspended. All personnel should stay in their residences unless they purchase necessary living materials for necessary work and livelihood needs, or go out for other emergency reasons. Moreover, adults should wear KN95 or above standard masks when going out, and the airport is limited to freight transportation. Zhang Yongchun, Director of the Department of Administration and Justice of Macao, said that the purpose of the measures is to minimize social mobility, denying that it is a city closure, nor is it<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">the whole people</a>Grounding has no great impact on citizens' daily life; However, it is impossible to predict whether the measures will be extended one week later. If the epidemic develops more seriously, it is not ruled out that the measures will be \"overweight and tightened\".</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Macau gambling stocks fell, Melco Crown Entertainment fell more than 9%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMacau gambling stocks fell, Melco Crown Entertainment fell more than 9%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-07-11 22:17</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On July 11, Macau gambling stocks fell.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPEL\">Melco Resorts Entertainment</a>Fell more than 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LVS\">Sands Group</a>Fell more than 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WYNN\">Wynn Resort</a>Fell more than 7%. Macao announced the suspension of the operation of industrial and commercial venues from 0: 00 on the 11th.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53f80dbd28d59fe0fedac02f54be6086\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The epidemic situation of novel coronavirus pneumonia in Macao continues. The Chief Executive of Macao issued an instruction last Saturday (9th). From today (11th) to 18th, the operation of all industrial and commercial companies and places will be suspended. All personnel should stay in their residences unless they purchase necessary living materials for necessary work and livelihood needs, or go out for other emergency reasons. Moreover, adults should wear KN95 or above standard masks when going out, and the airport is limited to freight transportation. Zhang Yongchun, Director of the Department of Administration and Justice of Macao, said that the purpose of the measures is to minimize social mobility, denying that it is a city closure, nor is it<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">the whole people</a>Grounding has no great impact on citizens' daily life; However, it is impossible to predict whether the measures will be extended one week later. If the epidemic develops more seriously, it is not ruled out that the measures will be \"overweight and tightened\".</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76824cd4c5b97eaacdaab63d96995a28","relate_stocks":{"MLCO":"新濠博亚娱乐"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123417061","content_text":"7月11日，澳门濠赌股下挫，新濠博亚娱乐跌超9%，金沙集团跌超8%，永利度假村跌超7%。澳门宣布从11日0时起暂停工商业活动场所运作。澳门新冠肺炎疫情持续，澳门行政长官于上周六(9日)颁布批示，今日(11日)起至18日期间，暂停所有工商业活动公司及场所运作，所有人员要留在住所，除非因执行必要的工作、维生需求而购买必要生活物资、或因其他紧急原因外出，而且成年人外出要佩戴KN95或以上标准口罩，机场亦只限货运。澳门行政法务司司长张永春表示，措施目的是为将社会流动量降至最低，否认是封城，亦非全民禁足，对市民日常生活无大影响；但无法预计一周后措施是否延长，若疫情发展更严重，不排除措施会“再加码、再收紧”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MLCO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3289,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9071309883,"gmtCreate":1657466809643,"gmtModify":1676536010807,"author":{"id":"3575347610709013","authorId":"3575347610709013","name":"han妈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575347610709013","authorIdStr":"3575347610709013"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"a","listText":"a","text":"a","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9071309883","repostId":"1158704109","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158704109","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1657455012,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1158704109?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-10 20:10","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Who is the next \"domino card\" after Abe's fall?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158704109","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"安倍倒下后日本央行将如何应对通胀的新挑战？对市场有何影响？","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>From the unexpected death of OPEC Secretary-General Barkindo to the unexpected attack of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. The market narrative that can connect these events may be<b>Inflation has evolved from an economic problem to a political and social problem</b>(Of course, there are religious factors behind Abe's assassination): Oil prices are an important trigger for high inflation in 2022, but OPEC has been unable to effectively increase production to ease the tightening supply and demand pattern (Figure 1); However, the Bank of Japan still insists on YCC (yield curve control policy) and policy easing without restriction despite rising inflation. The current central bank governor Haruhiko Kuroda is a supporter of Abenomics (stimulating the economy through quantitative easing and expanding fiscal expenditure) (Figure 2).</p><p>In this report, we want to analyze the latter aspect:<b>How will the Bank of Japan respond to the new challenge of inflation after Abe's fall? What is the impact on the market?</b></p><p>We don't think Japan will abandon Abenomics and YCC policies, but under the background that overseas inflation is more unbearable than recession, we need to pay attention to at least three risks in the second half of the year:</p><p><ul><li>The Bank of Japan may choose to adjust the fluctuation range of YCC policy at one time and beyond expectations, which will undoubtedly intensify the pressure on the global bond market in stages;</p><p></li><li>The downward inflection point in U.S. bond yields may be delayed until the fourth quarter or even later;</p><p></li><li>Domestically, the intensification of the narrative of inflation and monetary policy normalization will lead to more upward pressure on bond yields.</p><p></li></ul><b>Regarding YCC policy, the attitude of the Bank of Japan will be to change rather than abandon it. We mainly answer three questions: Why is it necessary to change? Why won't you abandon it? How to change?</b></p><p>After the epidemic, inflation returned and economic volatility increased significantly, while the YCC framework launched in 2016 is positioned at low inflation and low volatility. The Bank of Japan launched the YCC policy in September 2016, which fixed the yield of long-term Treasury Bond at around 0%, which has its specific economic environment and policy demands: on the one hand, the original intention of the YCC policy is to help Japan get out of the long-standing deflation dilemma; On the other hand, the two main functions of YCC are: stimulating exports and introducing imported inflation through the depreciation of the yen exchange rate; Create a favorable financing environment for expanding government expenditure.</p><p>Currently, the outdated nature of YCC is highlighted in three points: First, after the baptism of the epidemic,<b>The world has gradually emerged from the shadow of deflation in the past 10 years.</b>At present and in the next ten years, we may usher in an era of high inflation and high volatility, and Japan is not immune, which is contrary to the original setting of the YCC policy; Second, in the case of high economic volatility,<b>Procyclical YCC policies will further amplify economic turmoil,</b>This is obviously not suitable for Japan's aging, low-desire society; And third,<b>Lack of flexible regulation mechanism, vulnerable to speculative funds</b>。 The frequency of YCC interval adjustment is very low. Since its launch in 2016, the interval has only been widened in 2018 and 2021.</p><p>The main reason for the pro-cyclicality of YCC policy is that the long-term Treasury Bond yield, which is the intermediary target of regulation, is pro-cyclical. In order to prevent bond yields from falling below the lower limit when the economy is in a downturn and inflation is sluggish, the Bank of Japan needs to purchase bonds cautiously. During the recession caused by the epidemic in 2020, the Bank of Japan's balance sheet expansion was much slower than that of European and American central banks (Figure 5); In the case of overheating economy and rising inflation, in order to prevent bond yields from rising above the upper limit, the Bank of Japan has to increase bond purchases, which may add fuel to inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ff740a636ff810d6a3b8ab15a424690\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>What attracts speculative funds most is that YCC policies lack flexibility and adjustments often lag behind. The basic structure of YCC policy is a stable center (as the policy goal, it is now 0%) and a fluctuation range that can be adjusted (but the adjustment frequency is low).<b>This is quite similar to the RMB exchange rate pricing before August 2015.</b>As a result, under the pressure of economic downturn and speculative funds, the pricing of RMB exchange rate has abandoned the anchoring center, but still retains the limit of fluctuation range (Figure 6, the current daily fluctuation of RMB against the US dollar still has an upper and lower limit of 2%).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cd11e9a93e0b7772ec60eb274c499f2\" tg-width=\"798\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, we believe that the Bank of Japan will not give up YCC, and the Japanese government will not give up Abenomics. First, in the short term,<b>There are lessons learned from the RBA's abandonment of YCC and bond yields runaway</b>(Figure 7), the rise in Japanese bond yields and yen caused by Japan's abandonment of YCC will make the Japanese economy even weaker. Second, from the perspective of medium and long-term policies,<b>\"Abenomics\" is the correct way out for Japan's economy</b>, and YCC policy is an important part of it. In Japan, where the population is aging and the youth is flat, the borrowing demand of households and businesses is still not strong. Maintaining export competitiveness through low exchange rates and active fiscal expenditures play a major role in stimulating aggregate demand (Figures 8 and 9). The important pillars are looser monetary policies and lower financing costs than other economies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1fbc2262fa3278c30046afd92d63e27\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Third, in terms of national and policy positioning, at least financially, Japan has chosen to deeply bind the United States and has already given up its ambition to internationalize the yen, which means that unlike the Federal Reserve,<b>Ensuring low-cost domestic fiscal financing and supporting the economy ranks first in Japan's monetary policy system, even if the Bank of Japan's holdings of Japanese bonds account for more than 50% of the total market, it will not hesitate to squeeze out foreign investors</b>In contrast, whether the United States needs to maintain the global reserve status of the US dollar or China needs to improve the internationalization of the RMB, it is necessary to ensure that bond yields are at a reasonable level, and ensure the liquidity and opening up of the bond market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82f3209f9effe35bc9d550839efe4be1\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>How to change? In the second half of the year, the Bank of Japan will raise the interest rate of the YCC ceiling to more than 0.5% (now 0.25%), and it is likely to adopt a one-step approach that exceeds market expectations. As the Bank of Japan mainly anchors 10-year Japanese bonds, which leads to the Japanese bond yield curve convex at the 10-year maturity (Figure 12), we estimate the reasonable position of the 10-year Japanese bond yield by the steepness of the curve under normal circumstances. Taking the 7-year term as an example (calculated according to the recent high of 0.27% and the spread between 10-year and 7-year maturities of 0.19%), without changing the benchmark policy interest rate,<b>The YCC range is likely to widen to ± 0. 5% in the second half of the year, which is essentially equivalent to at least 25bp in rate hike.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6e8684aa6a0873c78c54ffaa1be3e02\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Looking forward, in the era of high inflation and high volatility, YCC may evolve into an interest rate ceiling mechanism in stages</b>, the adjustment of the ceiling interest rate is clearer than the policy signal of the central interest rate. The Bank of Japan can conduct countercyclical operations by adjusting the ceiling interest rate and bond purchases more frequently on the premise of controlling the financing cost of Japanese bonds.</p><p>We believe that the main reason why the Bank of Japan will make one-time, substantial and exceeding market expectations adjustments is that historical experience shows that adjusting rigid pricing mechanisms (such as fixed exchange rate mechanisms) should not fully guide market expectations and proceed step by step, which will instead lead to more speculative funds betting and arbitrage, resulting in greater market turmoil.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e637abc9b7fb9feb7d02473e0f0ccc3b\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"506\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>If the Bank of Japan does this, will Japanese bonds collapse? No, in fact, the Bank of Japan is not passive in operation. On the one hand,<b>The Bank of Japan is the largest holder in the Japanese Treasury Bond spot market</b>The proportion of overseas institutions is only about 10% (Figure 14); On the other hand, speculative funds short Japanese bonds mainly through futures (better liquidity). In the case of insufficient liquidity in the spot market (inconvenient futures delivery),<b>Short selling futures is mainly short-term and phased</b>(Mainly before the Bank of Japan's interest rate meeting, Figure 15). The pressure on the Bank of Japan mainly comes from the political and social public opinion levels.</p><p>However, the Bank of Japan's initiative to broaden the YCC range will put pressure on the global bond market again in the short term. As the last base camp of the \"doves\" of monetary policy in developed economies, the Bank of Japan's turn will have a milestone symbolic significance. In addition, as the economy with the largest foreign investment position in the world, the changes in interest rates and exchange rates brought about by changes in YCC are likely to make Japan adjust (probably reduce) its exposure to foreign fixed-income investment, further exacerbating market turmoil.</p><p>Japanese yen: Depreciation pressure has always existed before the Bank of Japan's action, especially before and after the interest rate meeting. On the one hand, before the Bank of Japan's action, the Federal Reserve's continued rate hike will objectively widen the interest rate gap between Japan and the United States, leading to a weakening of the yen; On the other hand, before the Federal Reserve's monetary policy changes, funds will continue to bet on its adjustment policy before the Bank of Japan's interest rate meeting. While institutions are shorting Japanese bond futures, shorting the yen is a good hedging position (the Bank of Japan adjusts its policy, Japanese bond futures make money; the Bank of Japan stands still, and the short yen makes money).</p><p>We think 140 is a hurdle for the yen. Japan's import prices increased by more than 40% year-on-year in May, setting a new high since 1980, of which<b>The depreciation of the yen contributed about 40% of the growth rate.</b>Due to rising prices, the disapproval rate of Kishida's cabinet has risen to a high of 27% since taking office in July. We believe that after the yen falls below 140 yuan, social and political pressure will force the Bank of Japan to reassess the current policy, and the Japanese Ministry of Finance will also intervene in foreign exchange in due course.</p><p>Regarding the spillover impact of Shinzo Abe's assassination and the \"grey rhinoceros\" of Japan's monetary policy in the second half of the year, we think we are mainly concerned about two points:<b>First, the downward inflection point of U.S. bond yields may come later than before, and second, there may be greater pressure on domestic bond yields to rise in the second half of the year.</b></p><p>The downward inflection point in U.S. bond yields will occur later, possibly until the fourth quarter or even later. A series of recent events have shown<b>The current determination of European and American central banks to tighten policies should not be underestimated</b>。<b>We believe that the trend characteristics of U.S. bonds in 2022 may need to refer to the 1970s and 1980s.</b>The pattern of the downward inflection point in U.S. bond yields before the recession since the 21st century is no longer applicable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d12b56f4d11a290edbf9929ab140588d\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>An important reason why the 10-year U.S. bond yield peg has often appeared before recessions since the 21st century is that<b>The Federal Reserve often takes the lead in initiating forward-looking interest rate cuts when there is greater downward pressure on the economy</b>(Figure 16), but the current monetary policy operations under high inflation may be more like those in the 1970s and 1980s. Policy shifts often occur after the onset of recessions, which also leads to high points (or double surges) in bond yields. It will occur during recessions (Figure 17).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ada6ca2043944da4ba1a40179b1f3d9\" tg-width=\"803\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In addition, the global \"aftershocks\" brought about by changes in Japan's monetary policy, the rapid recovery of China's economy in the third quarter, and the Biden administration's unusual emphasis on inflation before the mid-term elections in November. These factors will lead to a downward inflection point in U.S. bond yields that may not occur until the fourth quarter.</p><p>For China, regardless of the grand narrative of geopolitics and anti-globalization, from the perspective of market logic, there will be greater upward pressure on bond yields in the second half of the year. We tend to think that the 10-year bond yield will stand in stages in the second half of the year. 2.90%, touching 3%:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f302c8709a5fb3156a0feae16b77a4bb\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>From the perspective of macro environment and market logic, overseas markets are experiencing a trade-off of inflation and recession, but domestically, at least in the third quarter, the rapid economic recovery, the recovery of service industry and the accelerated rise of pork may lead to the CPI rising by 3 or even exceeding the market in stages. Expectations, superimposed on the fanning of overseas inflation narratives, are obviously not good news for the bond market; And<b>The experience of pork prices rising sharply in 2019 and bond interest rates falling instead has no reference significance in 2022</b>--The macro background at that time was that global inflation was sluggish, and central banks turned to easing under weak fundamentals, which was quite different from this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c6c0293c9458a529f4248e446009355\" tg-width=\"802\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>From the external environment, before the adjustment of Japan's monetary policy, the \"Asian currency war\" led by the depreciation of the yen has not yet ended</b>, even with the aura of U.S. tariff reduction and exemption to China, there is still pressure on the RMB to depreciate. Superimposed on the \"strength\" of the U.S. dollar and U.S. bond yields, monetary policy has added a layer of internal and external game in addition to the logic of returning to normal.<b>How to balance exchange rate depreciation with stabilizing inflation expectations will bring additional uncertainty to the bond market.</b></p><p>Once the logic of \"recovery + inflation + monetary policy returning to normalization + limiting imported inflation\" is formed,<b>De-leverage in the bond market will accelerate bond market adjustments</b>。</p><p>For the domestic equity market,<b>Under the inflation narrative, the downward inflection point of long-term U.S. bond yields has been postponed, the domestic bond market is facing adjustments, and the risk of the Bank of Japan's \"grey rhino\" is superimposed. We will be more cautious about the performance of growth stocks in the third quarter than the market</b>, especially in some sectors with rapid valuation recovery and hot transactions in the second quarter, risks need to be controlled.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caf9e145bba244c2267f601c20b4f133\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Risk warning:</p><p>External demand fell due to the tightening of overseas monetary policy, and the spread of the domestic epidemic exceeded market expectations; Europe and the United States accelerated into a deep recession in the third quarter, European and American central banks were forced to turn ahead of schedule, long-term bond yields fell ahead of schedule, and Japan's YCC policy pressure decreased; OPEC increased production significantly more than expected in the second half of the year, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine reached a consensus, the substantial improvement in crude oil supply led to a drop in oil prices, and global inflationary pressures eased.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Who is the next \"domino card\" after Abe's fall?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWho is the next \"domino card\" after Abe's fall?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">川阅全球宏观</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-10 20:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>From the unexpected death of OPEC Secretary-General Barkindo to the unexpected attack of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. The market narrative that can connect these events may be<b>Inflation has evolved from an economic problem to a political and social problem</b>(Of course, there are religious factors behind Abe's assassination): Oil prices are an important trigger for high inflation in 2022, but OPEC has been unable to effectively increase production to ease the tightening supply and demand pattern (Figure 1); However, the Bank of Japan still insists on YCC (yield curve control policy) and policy easing without restriction despite rising inflation. The current central bank governor Haruhiko Kuroda is a supporter of Abenomics (stimulating the economy through quantitative easing and expanding fiscal expenditure) (Figure 2).</p><p>In this report, we want to analyze the latter aspect:<b>How will the Bank of Japan respond to the new challenge of inflation after Abe's fall? What is the impact on the market?</b></p><p>We don't think Japan will abandon Abenomics and YCC policies, but under the background that overseas inflation is more unbearable than recession, we need to pay attention to at least three risks in the second half of the year:</p><p><ul><li>The Bank of Japan may choose to adjust the fluctuation range of YCC policy at one time and beyond expectations, which will undoubtedly intensify the pressure on the global bond market in stages;</p><p></li><li>The downward inflection point in U.S. bond yields may be delayed until the fourth quarter or even later;</p><p></li><li>Domestically, the intensification of the narrative of inflation and monetary policy normalization will lead to more upward pressure on bond yields.</p><p></li></ul><b>Regarding YCC policy, the attitude of the Bank of Japan will be to change rather than abandon it. We mainly answer three questions: Why is it necessary to change? Why won't you abandon it? How to change?</b></p><p>After the epidemic, inflation returned and economic volatility increased significantly, while the YCC framework launched in 2016 is positioned at low inflation and low volatility. The Bank of Japan launched the YCC policy in September 2016, which fixed the yield of long-term Treasury Bond at around 0%, which has its specific economic environment and policy demands: on the one hand, the original intention of the YCC policy is to help Japan get out of the long-standing deflation dilemma; On the other hand, the two main functions of YCC are: stimulating exports and introducing imported inflation through the depreciation of the yen exchange rate; Create a favorable financing environment for expanding government expenditure.</p><p>Currently, the outdated nature of YCC is highlighted in three points: First, after the baptism of the epidemic,<b>The world has gradually emerged from the shadow of deflation in the past 10 years.</b>At present and in the next ten years, we may usher in an era of high inflation and high volatility, and Japan is not immune, which is contrary to the original setting of the YCC policy; Second, in the case of high economic volatility,<b>Procyclical YCC policies will further amplify economic turmoil,</b>This is obviously not suitable for Japan's aging, low-desire society; And third,<b>Lack of flexible regulation mechanism, vulnerable to speculative funds</b>。 The frequency of YCC interval adjustment is very low. Since its launch in 2016, the interval has only been widened in 2018 and 2021.</p><p>The main reason for the pro-cyclicality of YCC policy is that the long-term Treasury Bond yield, which is the intermediary target of regulation, is pro-cyclical. In order to prevent bond yields from falling below the lower limit when the economy is in a downturn and inflation is sluggish, the Bank of Japan needs to purchase bonds cautiously. During the recession caused by the epidemic in 2020, the Bank of Japan's balance sheet expansion was much slower than that of European and American central banks (Figure 5); In the case of overheating economy and rising inflation, in order to prevent bond yields from rising above the upper limit, the Bank of Japan has to increase bond purchases, which may add fuel to inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ff740a636ff810d6a3b8ab15a424690\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>What attracts speculative funds most is that YCC policies lack flexibility and adjustments often lag behind. The basic structure of YCC policy is a stable center (as the policy goal, it is now 0%) and a fluctuation range that can be adjusted (but the adjustment frequency is low).<b>This is quite similar to the RMB exchange rate pricing before August 2015.</b>As a result, under the pressure of economic downturn and speculative funds, the pricing of RMB exchange rate has abandoned the anchoring center, but still retains the limit of fluctuation range (Figure 6, the current daily fluctuation of RMB against the US dollar still has an upper and lower limit of 2%).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cd11e9a93e0b7772ec60eb274c499f2\" tg-width=\"798\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, we believe that the Bank of Japan will not give up YCC, and the Japanese government will not give up Abenomics. First, in the short term,<b>There are lessons learned from the RBA's abandonment of YCC and bond yields runaway</b>(Figure 7), the rise in Japanese bond yields and yen caused by Japan's abandonment of YCC will make the Japanese economy even weaker. Second, from the perspective of medium and long-term policies,<b>\"Abenomics\" is the correct way out for Japan's economy</b>, and YCC policy is an important part of it. In Japan, where the population is aging and the youth is flat, the borrowing demand of households and businesses is still not strong. Maintaining export competitiveness through low exchange rates and active fiscal expenditures play a major role in stimulating aggregate demand (Figures 8 and 9). The important pillars are looser monetary policies and lower financing costs than other economies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1fbc2262fa3278c30046afd92d63e27\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Third, in terms of national and policy positioning, at least financially, Japan has chosen to deeply bind the United States and has already given up its ambition to internationalize the yen, which means that unlike the Federal Reserve,<b>Ensuring low-cost domestic fiscal financing and supporting the economy ranks first in Japan's monetary policy system, even if the Bank of Japan's holdings of Japanese bonds account for more than 50% of the total market, it will not hesitate to squeeze out foreign investors</b>In contrast, whether the United States needs to maintain the global reserve status of the US dollar or China needs to improve the internationalization of the RMB, it is necessary to ensure that bond yields are at a reasonable level, and ensure the liquidity and opening up of the bond market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82f3209f9effe35bc9d550839efe4be1\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>How to change? In the second half of the year, the Bank of Japan will raise the interest rate of the YCC ceiling to more than 0.5% (now 0.25%), and it is likely to adopt a one-step approach that exceeds market expectations. As the Bank of Japan mainly anchors 10-year Japanese bonds, which leads to the Japanese bond yield curve convex at the 10-year maturity (Figure 12), we estimate the reasonable position of the 10-year Japanese bond yield by the steepness of the curve under normal circumstances. Taking the 7-year term as an example (calculated according to the recent high of 0.27% and the spread between 10-year and 7-year maturities of 0.19%), without changing the benchmark policy interest rate,<b>The YCC range is likely to widen to ± 0. 5% in the second half of the year, which is essentially equivalent to at least 25bp in rate hike.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6e8684aa6a0873c78c54ffaa1be3e02\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Looking forward, in the era of high inflation and high volatility, YCC may evolve into an interest rate ceiling mechanism in stages</b>, the adjustment of the ceiling interest rate is clearer than the policy signal of the central interest rate. The Bank of Japan can conduct countercyclical operations by adjusting the ceiling interest rate and bond purchases more frequently on the premise of controlling the financing cost of Japanese bonds.</p><p>We believe that the main reason why the Bank of Japan will make one-time, substantial and exceeding market expectations adjustments is that historical experience shows that adjusting rigid pricing mechanisms (such as fixed exchange rate mechanisms) should not fully guide market expectations and proceed step by step, which will instead lead to more speculative funds betting and arbitrage, resulting in greater market turmoil.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e637abc9b7fb9feb7d02473e0f0ccc3b\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"506\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>If the Bank of Japan does this, will Japanese bonds collapse? No, in fact, the Bank of Japan is not passive in operation. On the one hand,<b>The Bank of Japan is the largest holder in the Japanese Treasury Bond spot market</b>The proportion of overseas institutions is only about 10% (Figure 14); On the other hand, speculative funds short Japanese bonds mainly through futures (better liquidity). In the case of insufficient liquidity in the spot market (inconvenient futures delivery),<b>Short selling futures is mainly short-term and phased</b>(Mainly before the Bank of Japan's interest rate meeting, Figure 15). The pressure on the Bank of Japan mainly comes from the political and social public opinion levels.</p><p>However, the Bank of Japan's initiative to broaden the YCC range will put pressure on the global bond market again in the short term. As the last base camp of the \"doves\" of monetary policy in developed economies, the Bank of Japan's turn will have a milestone symbolic significance. In addition, as the economy with the largest foreign investment position in the world, the changes in interest rates and exchange rates brought about by changes in YCC are likely to make Japan adjust (probably reduce) its exposure to foreign fixed-income investment, further exacerbating market turmoil.</p><p>Japanese yen: Depreciation pressure has always existed before the Bank of Japan's action, especially before and after the interest rate meeting. On the one hand, before the Bank of Japan's action, the Federal Reserve's continued rate hike will objectively widen the interest rate gap between Japan and the United States, leading to a weakening of the yen; On the other hand, before the Federal Reserve's monetary policy changes, funds will continue to bet on its adjustment policy before the Bank of Japan's interest rate meeting. While institutions are shorting Japanese bond futures, shorting the yen is a good hedging position (the Bank of Japan adjusts its policy, Japanese bond futures make money; the Bank of Japan stands still, and the short yen makes money).</p><p>We think 140 is a hurdle for the yen. Japan's import prices increased by more than 40% year-on-year in May, setting a new high since 1980, of which<b>The depreciation of the yen contributed about 40% of the growth rate.</b>Due to rising prices, the disapproval rate of Kishida's cabinet has risen to a high of 27% since taking office in July. We believe that after the yen falls below 140 yuan, social and political pressure will force the Bank of Japan to reassess the current policy, and the Japanese Ministry of Finance will also intervene in foreign exchange in due course.</p><p>Regarding the spillover impact of Shinzo Abe's assassination and the \"grey rhinoceros\" of Japan's monetary policy in the second half of the year, we think we are mainly concerned about two points:<b>First, the downward inflection point of U.S. bond yields may come later than before, and second, there may be greater pressure on domestic bond yields to rise in the second half of the year.</b></p><p>The downward inflection point in U.S. bond yields will occur later, possibly until the fourth quarter or even later. A series of recent events have shown<b>The current determination of European and American central banks to tighten policies should not be underestimated</b>。<b>We believe that the trend characteristics of U.S. bonds in 2022 may need to refer to the 1970s and 1980s.</b>The pattern of the downward inflection point in U.S. bond yields before the recession since the 21st century is no longer applicable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d12b56f4d11a290edbf9929ab140588d\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>An important reason why the 10-year U.S. bond yield peg has often appeared before recessions since the 21st century is that<b>The Federal Reserve often takes the lead in initiating forward-looking interest rate cuts when there is greater downward pressure on the economy</b>(Figure 16), but the current monetary policy operations under high inflation may be more like those in the 1970s and 1980s. Policy shifts often occur after the onset of recessions, which also leads to high points (or double surges) in bond yields. It will occur during recessions (Figure 17).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ada6ca2043944da4ba1a40179b1f3d9\" tg-width=\"803\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In addition, the global \"aftershocks\" brought about by changes in Japan's monetary policy, the rapid recovery of China's economy in the third quarter, and the Biden administration's unusual emphasis on inflation before the mid-term elections in November. These factors will lead to a downward inflection point in U.S. bond yields that may not occur until the fourth quarter.</p><p>For China, regardless of the grand narrative of geopolitics and anti-globalization, from the perspective of market logic, there will be greater upward pressure on bond yields in the second half of the year. We tend to think that the 10-year bond yield will stand in stages in the second half of the year. 2.90%, touching 3%:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f302c8709a5fb3156a0feae16b77a4bb\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>From the perspective of macro environment and market logic, overseas markets are experiencing a trade-off of inflation and recession, but domestically, at least in the third quarter, the rapid economic recovery, the recovery of service industry and the accelerated rise of pork may lead to the CPI rising by 3 or even exceeding the market in stages. Expectations, superimposed on the fanning of overseas inflation narratives, are obviously not good news for the bond market; And<b>The experience of pork prices rising sharply in 2019 and bond interest rates falling instead has no reference significance in 2022</b>--The macro background at that time was that global inflation was sluggish, and central banks turned to easing under weak fundamentals, which was quite different from this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c6c0293c9458a529f4248e446009355\" tg-width=\"802\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>From the external environment, before the adjustment of Japan's monetary policy, the \"Asian currency war\" led by the depreciation of the yen has not yet ended</b>, even with the aura of U.S. tariff reduction and exemption to China, there is still pressure on the RMB to depreciate. Superimposed on the \"strength\" of the U.S. dollar and U.S. bond yields, monetary policy has added a layer of internal and external game in addition to the logic of returning to normal.<b>How to balance exchange rate depreciation with stabilizing inflation expectations will bring additional uncertainty to the bond market.</b></p><p>Once the logic of \"recovery + inflation + monetary policy returning to normalization + limiting imported inflation\" is formed,<b>De-leverage in the bond market will accelerate bond market adjustments</b>。</p><p>For the domestic equity market,<b>Under the inflation narrative, the downward inflection point of long-term U.S. bond yields has been postponed, the domestic bond market is facing adjustments, and the risk of the Bank of Japan's \"grey rhino\" is superimposed. We will be more cautious about the performance of growth stocks in the third quarter than the market</b>, especially in some sectors with rapid valuation recovery and hot transactions in the second quarter, risks need to be controlled.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caf9e145bba244c2267f601c20b4f133\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Risk warning:</p><p>External demand fell due to the tightening of overseas monetary policy, and the spread of the domestic epidemic exceeded market expectations; Europe and the United States accelerated into a deep recession in the third quarter, European and American central banks were forced to turn ahead of schedule, long-term bond yields fell ahead of schedule, and Japan's YCC policy pressure decreased; OPEC increased production significantly more than expected in the second half of the year, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine reached a consensus, the substantial improvement in crude oil supply led to a drop in oil prices, and global inflationary pressures eased.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzUzMzEyODIyMA==&mid=2247499790&idx=1&sn=0616e2d5b88409b0750bc7c75927f617&chksm=faaa357dcdddbc6b9d83fe293f78f6464bfbb114a5d4ec2245a98352cc2e204f3388d970afe2&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0710p4fnASCgjEhnoxYWSG13&sharer_sharetime=1657442265849&sharer_shareid=00a55b671777cf0e253d4693000ead51%23rd\">川阅全球宏观</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65f441cb44a16f93fb854d432eef3637","relate_stocks":{"EWJ":"日本ETF-iShares MSCI"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzUzMzEyODIyMA==&mid=2247499790&idx=1&sn=0616e2d5b88409b0750bc7c75927f617&chksm=faaa357dcdddbc6b9d83fe293f78f6464bfbb114a5d4ec2245a98352cc2e204f3388d970afe2&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0710p4fnASCgjEhnoxYWSG13&sharer_sharetime=1657442265849&sharer_shareid=00a55b671777cf0e253d4693000ead51%23rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158704109","content_text":"从OPEC秘书长巴尔金多意外身亡，到日本前首相安倍晋三意外被袭。能将这些事件串联起来的市场叙事可能是通胀已经从经济问题演变成政治和社会问题（当然，安倍遇刺背后还有宗教的因素）：油价是2022年通胀高企的重要导火索，但是OPEC迟迟未能有效提高产量缓解不断趋紧的供需格局（图1）；而日本央行在通胀上涨的情况下依旧无限制坚持YCC（收益率曲线控制政策）和政策宽松，现任央行行长黑田东彦是安倍经济学（通过量化宽松和扩大财政支出刺激经济）的拥虿（图2）。本篇报告我们想要针对后一方面进行分析：安倍倒下后日本央行将如何应对通胀的新挑战？对市场有何影响？我们认为日本不会抛弃安倍经济学和YCC政策，不过在海外通胀比衰退更加令人难以忍受的背景下，下半年至少需要注意三点风险：日本央行可能会选择一次性、超预期调整YCC政策的波动区间，而这无疑会阶段性加剧全球债市的压力；美债收益率的向下拐点可能会拖后至第四季度甚至更晚才会出现；对于国内来说，通胀和货币政策正常化叙事的强化将导致债券收益率上涨压力更大。对于YCC政策，日本央行的态度将是改变而非抛弃。我们主要回答三个问题：为什么需要改变？为什么不会抛弃？如何改变？疫情后通胀回归、经济波动明显加大，而2016年推出的YCC框架则定位于低通胀和低波动。日本央行在2016年9月推出YCC政策，将长端国债收益率固定在0%附近，有其特定的经济环境和政策诉求：一方面，YCC政策的初衷是为了帮助日本走出长期存在的通缩困境；另一方面YCC的两个主要功能是：通过日元汇率贬值拉动出口、引入输入性通胀；为扩大的政府支出创造良好的融资环境。当前看，YCC的不合时宜性凸显在三点上：第一，经过疫情的洗礼，全球已经逐步走出了过去10年的通缩阴影，当前以及未来十年我们可能迎来高通胀、高波动的年代，日本同样不能幸免，这与YCC政策最初的设置是相悖的；第二，在经济高波动的情况下，顺周期的YCC政策会进一步放大经济的动荡，这明显不适合日本老龄化、低欲望的社会；第三，缺乏灵活的调节机制，容易受到投机资金的攻击。YCC区间调整的频率很低，2016年推出以来仅2018年和2021年拓宽过区间。YCC政策的顺周期主要原因是作为调控中介目标的长端国债收益率是顺周期的。经济下行、通胀不振时为了不让债券收益率跌破下限，日本央行反而需要谨慎地进行债券购买，2020年疫情导致的衰退期间日本央行资产负债表扩张的速度远远慢于欧美央行（图5）；而在经济过热、通胀上涨的情况下，为了避免债券收益率升破上限，日本央行又不得不加大债券的购买量，可能导致通胀火上浇油。而最吸引投机资金的一点是，YCC政策缺乏弹性、调整往往滞后。YCC政策的基本构造是一个稳定的中枢（作为政策目标，现在为0%）和一个可以调整宽窄的波动区间（但调整频率偏低）。这一点和2015年8月之前的人民币汇率定价颇为相似，而结果是在经济下行和投机资金的压力下，人民币汇率的定价放弃了锚定中枢，但是依旧保留波动区间的限制（图6，当前人民币兑美元的日度波动依旧存在2%的上下限限制）。不过我们认为，日本央行不会放弃YCC，同样日本政府不会放弃安倍经济学。第一，从短期看，有澳大利亚央行放弃YCC、债券收益率失控的前车之鉴（图7），日本放弃YCC导致的日债收益率和日元上行会让日本经济更加疲软。第二，从中长期政策来看，“安倍经济学”是日本经济的正确出路，而YCC政策是其中重要的一环。在人口老龄化、青年躺平化的日本，家庭和企业的借贷需求依旧不强，通过低汇率保持出口竞争力、积极的财政支出发挥拉动总需求的主要作用（图8和9），而背后重要的支柱就是相较其他经济体更加宽松的货币政策、更加低廉的融资成本。第三，从国家和政策定位上，至少在金融上日本选择了深度绑定美国，早已放弃了日元国际化的野心，这意味着和美联储不同，保证国内财政低成本融资、托底经济在日本货币政策体系中的居于首位，即使日本央行持有日债规模占全市场的比例已经超过了50%、挤出外国投资者也在所不惜，与之相对，无论是美国需要保持美元的全球储备地位，还是中国需要提高人民币的国际化程度，都需要保证债券收益率处于合理水平，保证债市流动性和对外开放程度。怎么变？下半年日本央行会上调YCC上限的利率至0.5%以上（现在为0.25%），而且很可能会采取一步到位、超市场预期的方式。由于日本央行主要锚定10年期日债，这导致日债收益率曲线在10年期限处下凸（图12），我们通过正常情况下曲线的陡峭程度来估算10年日债收益率的合理位置，以7年期为例（按近期高点0.27%和0.19%的10年与7年期限利差计算），在不改变基准政策利率的情况下，10年期日债上限水平至少在0.46%上方（图13），考虑到市场情绪以及日本央行调整区间的习惯（幅度通常为5bp的整数倍），下半年YCC区间很可能拓宽至±0.5%，本质上相当于加息至少25bp。往后看，在高通胀、高波动时代YCC可能阶段性演变成一种利率上限机制，上限利率调整比中枢利率的政策信号更明确，日本央行可以在控制日债融资成本的前提下，通过更频繁地调整上限利率和债券购买来进行逆周期操作。我们认为日本央行会一次性、大幅度、超市场预期调整的原因主要在于，历史经验表明调整僵化的定价机制（例如固定汇率机制）不宜充分引导市场预期、循序渐进，这反而会导致更多的投机资金押注、套利，造成更大的市场动荡。日本央行这么做，日债会崩盘？不会，其实日本央行在操作上并不被动。一方面，日本央行是日本国债现货市场上最大的持有方，海外机构的占比仅在10%左右（图14）；另一方面，投机资金做空日债主要是通过期货（流动性更好），在现货市场流动性不足（期货交割不方便）的情况下，做空期货主要是短期和阶段性的（主要在日本央行议息会议前，图15）。日本央行的压力主要来自于政治和社会民意层面。不过日本央行主动拓宽YCC区间，会导致短期内全球债券市场再次承压。日本央行作为发达经济体货币政策“鸽派”最后的大本营，它的转向将具有里程碑式的象征意义。除此之外，作为全球对外投资头寸最大的经济体，YCC变动带来的利率和汇率变化，很可能会使得日本调整（很可能是减少）对外固定收益投资的敞口，进一步加剧市场动荡。日元：在日本央行行动前贬值压力一直存在，尤其是议息会议前后。一方面，在日本央行行动前，美联储持续加息客观上会拉大日美利差，导致日元走弱；另一方面，在美联储货币政策转向前，资金会持续在日本央行议息会议前押注其调整政策，机构在做空日债期货的同时，做空日元是很好的对冲仓位（日本央行调整政策，日债期货赚钱；日本央行按兵不动，日元空头赚钱）。我们认为140是日元的一道坎。日本5月的进口价格同比增速超过40%，创下1980年以来的新高，其中日元贬值贡献了约40%的增速。由于物价的上涨，岸田内阁的不支持率在7月已经升至履新以来的高位27%。我们认为日元跌破140元后，来自社会和政治层面的压力会迫使日本央行重新评估现行的政策，日本财政部也适时进行外汇干预。对于安倍晋三被刺和下半年日本货币政策“灰犀牛”的外溢影响，我们觉得主要关注两个点：一是美债收益率的向下拐点可能会较之前来得更晚，二是国内债券收益率下半年上涨的压力可能会更大。美债收益率向下的拐点会出现得更晚，可能要到第四季度甚至更晚。近期的一系列事件表明不应低估当前欧美央行政策紧缩的决心。我们认为2022年美债的走势特点可能需要参考20世纪70至80年代，21世纪以来美债收益率向下拐点在衰退前出现的模式已经不适用了。21世纪以来10年期美债收益率挂点往往在衰退前出现的重要原因是美联储往往会经济下行压力较大时率先开启前瞻式降息（图16），但是当前高通胀下的货币政策操作可能更像20世纪70至80年代，政策转向往往发生在衰退开始之后，这也导致债券收益率的高点（或者二次冲高点）会出现在衰退期间（图17）。除此之外，日本货币政策变动带来的全球“余震”，中国经济在第三季度的快速复苏，以及拜登政府在11月中期选举前对于通胀的异常重视。这些因素会导致美债收益率的向下拐点可能要到第四季度才会出现。对于中国来说，抛开地缘政治和逆全球化的宏大叙事，从市场逻辑看，下半年债券收益率上行的压力会更大，我们倾向于认为下半年10年期债券收益率会阶段性站上2.90%，触及3%：从宏观环境和市场逻辑上看，海外市场是通胀和衰退此消彼长，但国内，至少在第三季度，经济快速复苏，服务业恢复和猪肉加速上涨可能导致CPI阶段性上3、甚至超市场预期，叠加海外通胀叙事的煽风点火，这对于债市明显不是好消息；而2019年猪肉价格大涨、债券利率反而下行的经历在2022年不具备参考意义——彼时的宏观大背景是全球通胀低迷，基本面偏弱下央行纷纷转向宽松，这与今年存在较大差异。从外部环境看，日本货币政策调整前，日元贬值引领的“亚洲货币战”尚未结束，即使有美国对华减免关税的光环存在，人民币还是存在贬值压力，叠加美元和美债收益率的“坚挺”，货币政策在回归常态的逻辑外，又多了一层内外博弈的色彩，如何在汇率贬值和稳定通胀预期之间平衡会给债市带来额外的不确定性。一旦“复苏+通胀+货币政策回归正常化+限制输入性通胀”的逻辑形成，债市杠杆的去化会加速债市调整。对于国内权益市场来说，通胀叙事下长端美债收益率向下拐点延期，国内债市面临调整，叠加日本央行“灰犀牛”的风险，我们对第三季度成长股的表现较市场会更趋谨慎，尤其是部分第二季度估值恢复迅速、成交火热的板块，需要控制风险。风险提示：海外货币政策收紧下外需回落，国内疫情扩散超市场预期；欧美第三季度加速进入深度衰退，欧美央行被迫提前转向，长端债券收益率提前回落，日本YCC政策压力减小；OPEC下半年超预期大幅增产、俄乌冲突达成共识，原油供给大幅改善导致油价下跌，全球通胀压力缓和。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EWJ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2218,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9071309967,"gmtCreate":1657466798359,"gmtModify":1676536010830,"author":{"id":"3575347610709013","authorId":"3575347610709013","name":"han妈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575347610709013","authorIdStr":"3575347610709013"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9071309967","repostId":"1158704109","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158704109","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1657455012,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1158704109?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-10 20:10","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Who is the next \"domino card\" after Abe's fall?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158704109","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"安倍倒下后日本央行将如何应对通胀的新挑战？对市场有何影响？","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>From the unexpected death of OPEC Secretary-General Barkindo to the unexpected attack of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. The market narrative that can connect these events may be<b>Inflation has evolved from an economic problem to a political and social problem</b>(Of course, there are religious factors behind Abe's assassination): Oil prices are an important trigger for high inflation in 2022, but OPEC has been unable to effectively increase production to ease the tightening supply and demand pattern (Figure 1); However, the Bank of Japan still insists on YCC (yield curve control policy) and policy easing without restriction despite rising inflation. The current central bank governor Haruhiko Kuroda is a supporter of Abenomics (stimulating the economy through quantitative easing and expanding fiscal expenditure) (Figure 2).</p><p>In this report, we want to analyze the latter aspect:<b>How will the Bank of Japan respond to the new challenge of inflation after Abe's fall? What is the impact on the market?</b></p><p>We don't think Japan will abandon Abenomics and YCC policies, but under the background that overseas inflation is more unbearable than recession, we need to pay attention to at least three risks in the second half of the year:</p><p><ul><li>The Bank of Japan may choose to adjust the fluctuation range of YCC policy at one time and beyond expectations, which will undoubtedly intensify the pressure on the global bond market in stages;</p><p></li><li>The downward inflection point in U.S. bond yields may be delayed until the fourth quarter or even later;</p><p></li><li>Domestically, the intensification of the narrative of inflation and monetary policy normalization will lead to more upward pressure on bond yields.</p><p></li></ul><b>Regarding YCC policy, the attitude of the Bank of Japan will be to change rather than abandon it. We mainly answer three questions: Why is it necessary to change? Why won't you abandon it? How to change?</b></p><p>After the epidemic, inflation returned and economic volatility increased significantly, while the YCC framework launched in 2016 is positioned at low inflation and low volatility. The Bank of Japan launched the YCC policy in September 2016, which fixed the yield of long-term Treasury Bond at around 0%, which has its specific economic environment and policy demands: on the one hand, the original intention of the YCC policy is to help Japan get out of the long-standing deflation dilemma; On the other hand, the two main functions of YCC are: stimulating exports and introducing imported inflation through the depreciation of the yen exchange rate; Create a favorable financing environment for expanding government expenditure.</p><p>Currently, the outdated nature of YCC is highlighted in three points: First, after the baptism of the epidemic,<b>The world has gradually emerged from the shadow of deflation in the past 10 years.</b>At present and in the next ten years, we may usher in an era of high inflation and high volatility, and Japan is not immune, which is contrary to the original setting of the YCC policy; Second, in the case of high economic volatility,<b>Procyclical YCC policies will further amplify economic turmoil,</b>This is obviously not suitable for Japan's aging, low-desire society; And third,<b>Lack of flexible regulation mechanism, vulnerable to speculative funds</b>。 The frequency of YCC interval adjustment is very low. Since its launch in 2016, the interval has only been widened in 2018 and 2021.</p><p>The main reason for the pro-cyclicality of YCC policy is that the long-term Treasury Bond yield, which is the intermediary target of regulation, is pro-cyclical. In order to prevent bond yields from falling below the lower limit when the economy is in a downturn and inflation is sluggish, the Bank of Japan needs to purchase bonds cautiously. During the recession caused by the epidemic in 2020, the Bank of Japan's balance sheet expansion was much slower than that of European and American central banks (Figure 5); In the case of overheating economy and rising inflation, in order to prevent bond yields from rising above the upper limit, the Bank of Japan has to increase bond purchases, which may add fuel to inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ff740a636ff810d6a3b8ab15a424690\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>What attracts speculative funds most is that YCC policies lack flexibility and adjustments often lag behind. The basic structure of YCC policy is a stable center (as the policy goal, it is now 0%) and a fluctuation range that can be adjusted (but the adjustment frequency is low).<b>This is quite similar to the RMB exchange rate pricing before August 2015.</b>As a result, under the pressure of economic downturn and speculative funds, the pricing of RMB exchange rate has abandoned the anchoring center, but still retains the limit of fluctuation range (Figure 6, the current daily fluctuation of RMB against the US dollar still has an upper and lower limit of 2%).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cd11e9a93e0b7772ec60eb274c499f2\" tg-width=\"798\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, we believe that the Bank of Japan will not give up YCC, and the Japanese government will not give up Abenomics. First, in the short term,<b>There are lessons learned from the RBA's abandonment of YCC and bond yields runaway</b>(Figure 7), the rise in Japanese bond yields and yen caused by Japan's abandonment of YCC will make the Japanese economy even weaker. Second, from the perspective of medium and long-term policies,<b>\"Abenomics\" is the correct way out for Japan's economy</b>, and YCC policy is an important part of it. In Japan, where the population is aging and the youth is flat, the borrowing demand of households and businesses is still not strong. Maintaining export competitiveness through low exchange rates and active fiscal expenditures play a major role in stimulating aggregate demand (Figures 8 and 9). The important pillars are looser monetary policies and lower financing costs than other economies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1fbc2262fa3278c30046afd92d63e27\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Third, in terms of national and policy positioning, at least financially, Japan has chosen to deeply bind the United States and has already given up its ambition to internationalize the yen, which means that unlike the Federal Reserve,<b>Ensuring low-cost domestic fiscal financing and supporting the economy ranks first in Japan's monetary policy system, even if the Bank of Japan's holdings of Japanese bonds account for more than 50% of the total market, it will not hesitate to squeeze out foreign investors</b>In contrast, whether the United States needs to maintain the global reserve status of the US dollar or China needs to improve the internationalization of the RMB, it is necessary to ensure that bond yields are at a reasonable level, and ensure the liquidity and opening up of the bond market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82f3209f9effe35bc9d550839efe4be1\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>How to change? In the second half of the year, the Bank of Japan will raise the interest rate of the YCC ceiling to more than 0.5% (now 0.25%), and it is likely to adopt a one-step approach that exceeds market expectations. As the Bank of Japan mainly anchors 10-year Japanese bonds, which leads to the Japanese bond yield curve convex at the 10-year maturity (Figure 12), we estimate the reasonable position of the 10-year Japanese bond yield by the steepness of the curve under normal circumstances. Taking the 7-year term as an example (calculated according to the recent high of 0.27% and the spread between 10-year and 7-year maturities of 0.19%), without changing the benchmark policy interest rate,<b>The YCC range is likely to widen to ± 0. 5% in the second half of the year, which is essentially equivalent to at least 25bp in rate hike.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6e8684aa6a0873c78c54ffaa1be3e02\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Looking forward, in the era of high inflation and high volatility, YCC may evolve into an interest rate ceiling mechanism in stages</b>, the adjustment of the ceiling interest rate is clearer than the policy signal of the central interest rate. The Bank of Japan can conduct countercyclical operations by adjusting the ceiling interest rate and bond purchases more frequently on the premise of controlling the financing cost of Japanese bonds.</p><p>We believe that the main reason why the Bank of Japan will make one-time, substantial and exceeding market expectations adjustments is that historical experience shows that adjusting rigid pricing mechanisms (such as fixed exchange rate mechanisms) should not fully guide market expectations and proceed step by step, which will instead lead to more speculative funds betting and arbitrage, resulting in greater market turmoil.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e637abc9b7fb9feb7d02473e0f0ccc3b\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"506\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>If the Bank of Japan does this, will Japanese bonds collapse? No, in fact, the Bank of Japan is not passive in operation. On the one hand,<b>The Bank of Japan is the largest holder in the Japanese Treasury Bond spot market</b>The proportion of overseas institutions is only about 10% (Figure 14); On the other hand, speculative funds short Japanese bonds mainly through futures (better liquidity). In the case of insufficient liquidity in the spot market (inconvenient futures delivery),<b>Short selling futures is mainly short-term and phased</b>(Mainly before the Bank of Japan's interest rate meeting, Figure 15). The pressure on the Bank of Japan mainly comes from the political and social public opinion levels.</p><p>However, the Bank of Japan's initiative to broaden the YCC range will put pressure on the global bond market again in the short term. As the last base camp of the \"doves\" of monetary policy in developed economies, the Bank of Japan's turn will have a milestone symbolic significance. In addition, as the economy with the largest foreign investment position in the world, the changes in interest rates and exchange rates brought about by changes in YCC are likely to make Japan adjust (probably reduce) its exposure to foreign fixed-income investment, further exacerbating market turmoil.</p><p>Japanese yen: Depreciation pressure has always existed before the Bank of Japan's action, especially before and after the interest rate meeting. On the one hand, before the Bank of Japan's action, the Federal Reserve's continued rate hike will objectively widen the interest rate gap between Japan and the United States, leading to a weakening of the yen; On the other hand, before the Federal Reserve's monetary policy changes, funds will continue to bet on its adjustment policy before the Bank of Japan's interest rate meeting. While institutions are shorting Japanese bond futures, shorting the yen is a good hedging position (the Bank of Japan adjusts its policy, Japanese bond futures make money; the Bank of Japan stands still, and the short yen makes money).</p><p>We think 140 is a hurdle for the yen. Japan's import prices increased by more than 40% year-on-year in May, setting a new high since 1980, of which<b>The depreciation of the yen contributed about 40% of the growth rate.</b>Due to rising prices, the disapproval rate of Kishida's cabinet has risen to a high of 27% since taking office in July. We believe that after the yen falls below 140 yuan, social and political pressure will force the Bank of Japan to reassess the current policy, and the Japanese Ministry of Finance will also intervene in foreign exchange in due course.</p><p>Regarding the spillover impact of Shinzo Abe's assassination and the \"grey rhinoceros\" of Japan's monetary policy in the second half of the year, we think we are mainly concerned about two points:<b>First, the downward inflection point of U.S. bond yields may come later than before, and second, there may be greater pressure on domestic bond yields to rise in the second half of the year.</b></p><p>The downward inflection point in U.S. bond yields will occur later, possibly until the fourth quarter or even later. A series of recent events have shown<b>The current determination of European and American central banks to tighten policies should not be underestimated</b>。<b>We believe that the trend characteristics of U.S. bonds in 2022 may need to refer to the 1970s and 1980s.</b>The pattern of the downward inflection point in U.S. bond yields before the recession since the 21st century is no longer applicable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d12b56f4d11a290edbf9929ab140588d\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>An important reason why the 10-year U.S. bond yield peg has often appeared before recessions since the 21st century is that<b>The Federal Reserve often takes the lead in initiating forward-looking interest rate cuts when there is greater downward pressure on the economy</b>(Figure 16), but the current monetary policy operations under high inflation may be more like those in the 1970s and 1980s. Policy shifts often occur after the onset of recessions, which also leads to high points (or double surges) in bond yields. It will occur during recessions (Figure 17).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ada6ca2043944da4ba1a40179b1f3d9\" tg-width=\"803\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In addition, the global \"aftershocks\" brought about by changes in Japan's monetary policy, the rapid recovery of China's economy in the third quarter, and the Biden administration's unusual emphasis on inflation before the mid-term elections in November. These factors will lead to a downward inflection point in U.S. bond yields that may not occur until the fourth quarter.</p><p>For China, regardless of the grand narrative of geopolitics and anti-globalization, from the perspective of market logic, there will be greater upward pressure on bond yields in the second half of the year. We tend to think that the 10-year bond yield will stand in stages in the second half of the year. 2.90%, touching 3%:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f302c8709a5fb3156a0feae16b77a4bb\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>From the perspective of macro environment and market logic, overseas markets are experiencing a trade-off of inflation and recession, but domestically, at least in the third quarter, the rapid economic recovery, the recovery of service industry and the accelerated rise of pork may lead to the CPI rising by 3 or even exceeding the market in stages. Expectations, superimposed on the fanning of overseas inflation narratives, are obviously not good news for the bond market; And<b>The experience of pork prices rising sharply in 2019 and bond interest rates falling instead has no reference significance in 2022</b>--The macro background at that time was that global inflation was sluggish, and central banks turned to easing under weak fundamentals, which was quite different from this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c6c0293c9458a529f4248e446009355\" tg-width=\"802\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>From the external environment, before the adjustment of Japan's monetary policy, the \"Asian currency war\" led by the depreciation of the yen has not yet ended</b>, even with the aura of U.S. tariff reduction and exemption to China, there is still pressure on the RMB to depreciate. Superimposed on the \"strength\" of the U.S. dollar and U.S. bond yields, monetary policy has added a layer of internal and external game in addition to the logic of returning to normal.<b>How to balance exchange rate depreciation with stabilizing inflation expectations will bring additional uncertainty to the bond market.</b></p><p>Once the logic of \"recovery + inflation + monetary policy returning to normalization + limiting imported inflation\" is formed,<b>De-leverage in the bond market will accelerate bond market adjustments</b>。</p><p>For the domestic equity market,<b>Under the inflation narrative, the downward inflection point of long-term U.S. bond yields has been postponed, the domestic bond market is facing adjustments, and the risk of the Bank of Japan's \"grey rhino\" is superimposed. We will be more cautious about the performance of growth stocks in the third quarter than the market</b>, especially in some sectors with rapid valuation recovery and hot transactions in the second quarter, risks need to be controlled.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caf9e145bba244c2267f601c20b4f133\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Risk warning:</p><p>External demand fell due to the tightening of overseas monetary policy, and the spread of the domestic epidemic exceeded market expectations; Europe and the United States accelerated into a deep recession in the third quarter, European and American central banks were forced to turn ahead of schedule, long-term bond yields fell ahead of schedule, and Japan's YCC policy pressure decreased; OPEC increased production significantly more than expected in the second half of the year, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine reached a consensus, the substantial improvement in crude oil supply led to a drop in oil prices, and global inflationary pressures eased.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Who is the next \"domino card\" after Abe's fall?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWho is the next \"domino card\" after Abe's fall?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">川阅全球宏观</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-10 20:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>From the unexpected death of OPEC Secretary-General Barkindo to the unexpected attack of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. The market narrative that can connect these events may be<b>Inflation has evolved from an economic problem to a political and social problem</b>(Of course, there are religious factors behind Abe's assassination): Oil prices are an important trigger for high inflation in 2022, but OPEC has been unable to effectively increase production to ease the tightening supply and demand pattern (Figure 1); However, the Bank of Japan still insists on YCC (yield curve control policy) and policy easing without restriction despite rising inflation. The current central bank governor Haruhiko Kuroda is a supporter of Abenomics (stimulating the economy through quantitative easing and expanding fiscal expenditure) (Figure 2).</p><p>In this report, we want to analyze the latter aspect:<b>How will the Bank of Japan respond to the new challenge of inflation after Abe's fall? What is the impact on the market?</b></p><p>We don't think Japan will abandon Abenomics and YCC policies, but under the background that overseas inflation is more unbearable than recession, we need to pay attention to at least three risks in the second half of the year:</p><p><ul><li>The Bank of Japan may choose to adjust the fluctuation range of YCC policy at one time and beyond expectations, which will undoubtedly intensify the pressure on the global bond market in stages;</p><p></li><li>The downward inflection point in U.S. bond yields may be delayed until the fourth quarter or even later;</p><p></li><li>Domestically, the intensification of the narrative of inflation and monetary policy normalization will lead to more upward pressure on bond yields.</p><p></li></ul><b>Regarding YCC policy, the attitude of the Bank of Japan will be to change rather than abandon it. We mainly answer three questions: Why is it necessary to change? Why won't you abandon it? How to change?</b></p><p>After the epidemic, inflation returned and economic volatility increased significantly, while the YCC framework launched in 2016 is positioned at low inflation and low volatility. The Bank of Japan launched the YCC policy in September 2016, which fixed the yield of long-term Treasury Bond at around 0%, which has its specific economic environment and policy demands: on the one hand, the original intention of the YCC policy is to help Japan get out of the long-standing deflation dilemma; On the other hand, the two main functions of YCC are: stimulating exports and introducing imported inflation through the depreciation of the yen exchange rate; Create a favorable financing environment for expanding government expenditure.</p><p>Currently, the outdated nature of YCC is highlighted in three points: First, after the baptism of the epidemic,<b>The world has gradually emerged from the shadow of deflation in the past 10 years.</b>At present and in the next ten years, we may usher in an era of high inflation and high volatility, and Japan is not immune, which is contrary to the original setting of the YCC policy; Second, in the case of high economic volatility,<b>Procyclical YCC policies will further amplify economic turmoil,</b>This is obviously not suitable for Japan's aging, low-desire society; And third,<b>Lack of flexible regulation mechanism, vulnerable to speculative funds</b>。 The frequency of YCC interval adjustment is very low. Since its launch in 2016, the interval has only been widened in 2018 and 2021.</p><p>The main reason for the pro-cyclicality of YCC policy is that the long-term Treasury Bond yield, which is the intermediary target of regulation, is pro-cyclical. In order to prevent bond yields from falling below the lower limit when the economy is in a downturn and inflation is sluggish, the Bank of Japan needs to purchase bonds cautiously. During the recession caused by the epidemic in 2020, the Bank of Japan's balance sheet expansion was much slower than that of European and American central banks (Figure 5); In the case of overheating economy and rising inflation, in order to prevent bond yields from rising above the upper limit, the Bank of Japan has to increase bond purchases, which may add fuel to inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ff740a636ff810d6a3b8ab15a424690\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>What attracts speculative funds most is that YCC policies lack flexibility and adjustments often lag behind. The basic structure of YCC policy is a stable center (as the policy goal, it is now 0%) and a fluctuation range that can be adjusted (but the adjustment frequency is low).<b>This is quite similar to the RMB exchange rate pricing before August 2015.</b>As a result, under the pressure of economic downturn and speculative funds, the pricing of RMB exchange rate has abandoned the anchoring center, but still retains the limit of fluctuation range (Figure 6, the current daily fluctuation of RMB against the US dollar still has an upper and lower limit of 2%).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cd11e9a93e0b7772ec60eb274c499f2\" tg-width=\"798\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, we believe that the Bank of Japan will not give up YCC, and the Japanese government will not give up Abenomics. First, in the short term,<b>There are lessons learned from the RBA's abandonment of YCC and bond yields runaway</b>(Figure 7), the rise in Japanese bond yields and yen caused by Japan's abandonment of YCC will make the Japanese economy even weaker. Second, from the perspective of medium and long-term policies,<b>\"Abenomics\" is the correct way out for Japan's economy</b>, and YCC policy is an important part of it. In Japan, where the population is aging and the youth is flat, the borrowing demand of households and businesses is still not strong. Maintaining export competitiveness through low exchange rates and active fiscal expenditures play a major role in stimulating aggregate demand (Figures 8 and 9). The important pillars are looser monetary policies and lower financing costs than other economies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1fbc2262fa3278c30046afd92d63e27\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Third, in terms of national and policy positioning, at least financially, Japan has chosen to deeply bind the United States and has already given up its ambition to internationalize the yen, which means that unlike the Federal Reserve,<b>Ensuring low-cost domestic fiscal financing and supporting the economy ranks first in Japan's monetary policy system, even if the Bank of Japan's holdings of Japanese bonds account for more than 50% of the total market, it will not hesitate to squeeze out foreign investors</b>In contrast, whether the United States needs to maintain the global reserve status of the US dollar or China needs to improve the internationalization of the RMB, it is necessary to ensure that bond yields are at a reasonable level, and ensure the liquidity and opening up of the bond market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82f3209f9effe35bc9d550839efe4be1\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>How to change? In the second half of the year, the Bank of Japan will raise the interest rate of the YCC ceiling to more than 0.5% (now 0.25%), and it is likely to adopt a one-step approach that exceeds market expectations. As the Bank of Japan mainly anchors 10-year Japanese bonds, which leads to the Japanese bond yield curve convex at the 10-year maturity (Figure 12), we estimate the reasonable position of the 10-year Japanese bond yield by the steepness of the curve under normal circumstances. Taking the 7-year term as an example (calculated according to the recent high of 0.27% and the spread between 10-year and 7-year maturities of 0.19%), without changing the benchmark policy interest rate,<b>The YCC range is likely to widen to ± 0. 5% in the second half of the year, which is essentially equivalent to at least 25bp in rate hike.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6e8684aa6a0873c78c54ffaa1be3e02\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Looking forward, in the era of high inflation and high volatility, YCC may evolve into an interest rate ceiling mechanism in stages</b>, the adjustment of the ceiling interest rate is clearer than the policy signal of the central interest rate. The Bank of Japan can conduct countercyclical operations by adjusting the ceiling interest rate and bond purchases more frequently on the premise of controlling the financing cost of Japanese bonds.</p><p>We believe that the main reason why the Bank of Japan will make one-time, substantial and exceeding market expectations adjustments is that historical experience shows that adjusting rigid pricing mechanisms (such as fixed exchange rate mechanisms) should not fully guide market expectations and proceed step by step, which will instead lead to more speculative funds betting and arbitrage, resulting in greater market turmoil.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e637abc9b7fb9feb7d02473e0f0ccc3b\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"506\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>If the Bank of Japan does this, will Japanese bonds collapse? No, in fact, the Bank of Japan is not passive in operation. On the one hand,<b>The Bank of Japan is the largest holder in the Japanese Treasury Bond spot market</b>The proportion of overseas institutions is only about 10% (Figure 14); On the other hand, speculative funds short Japanese bonds mainly through futures (better liquidity). In the case of insufficient liquidity in the spot market (inconvenient futures delivery),<b>Short selling futures is mainly short-term and phased</b>(Mainly before the Bank of Japan's interest rate meeting, Figure 15). The pressure on the Bank of Japan mainly comes from the political and social public opinion levels.</p><p>However, the Bank of Japan's initiative to broaden the YCC range will put pressure on the global bond market again in the short term. As the last base camp of the \"doves\" of monetary policy in developed economies, the Bank of Japan's turn will have a milestone symbolic significance. In addition, as the economy with the largest foreign investment position in the world, the changes in interest rates and exchange rates brought about by changes in YCC are likely to make Japan adjust (probably reduce) its exposure to foreign fixed-income investment, further exacerbating market turmoil.</p><p>Japanese yen: Depreciation pressure has always existed before the Bank of Japan's action, especially before and after the interest rate meeting. On the one hand, before the Bank of Japan's action, the Federal Reserve's continued rate hike will objectively widen the interest rate gap between Japan and the United States, leading to a weakening of the yen; On the other hand, before the Federal Reserve's monetary policy changes, funds will continue to bet on its adjustment policy before the Bank of Japan's interest rate meeting. While institutions are shorting Japanese bond futures, shorting the yen is a good hedging position (the Bank of Japan adjusts its policy, Japanese bond futures make money; the Bank of Japan stands still, and the short yen makes money).</p><p>We think 140 is a hurdle for the yen. Japan's import prices increased by more than 40% year-on-year in May, setting a new high since 1980, of which<b>The depreciation of the yen contributed about 40% of the growth rate.</b>Due to rising prices, the disapproval rate of Kishida's cabinet has risen to a high of 27% since taking office in July. We believe that after the yen falls below 140 yuan, social and political pressure will force the Bank of Japan to reassess the current policy, and the Japanese Ministry of Finance will also intervene in foreign exchange in due course.</p><p>Regarding the spillover impact of Shinzo Abe's assassination and the \"grey rhinoceros\" of Japan's monetary policy in the second half of the year, we think we are mainly concerned about two points:<b>First, the downward inflection point of U.S. bond yields may come later than before, and second, there may be greater pressure on domestic bond yields to rise in the second half of the year.</b></p><p>The downward inflection point in U.S. bond yields will occur later, possibly until the fourth quarter or even later. A series of recent events have shown<b>The current determination of European and American central banks to tighten policies should not be underestimated</b>。<b>We believe that the trend characteristics of U.S. bonds in 2022 may need to refer to the 1970s and 1980s.</b>The pattern of the downward inflection point in U.S. bond yields before the recession since the 21st century is no longer applicable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d12b56f4d11a290edbf9929ab140588d\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>An important reason why the 10-year U.S. bond yield peg has often appeared before recessions since the 21st century is that<b>The Federal Reserve often takes the lead in initiating forward-looking interest rate cuts when there is greater downward pressure on the economy</b>(Figure 16), but the current monetary policy operations under high inflation may be more like those in the 1970s and 1980s. Policy shifts often occur after the onset of recessions, which also leads to high points (or double surges) in bond yields. It will occur during recessions (Figure 17).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ada6ca2043944da4ba1a40179b1f3d9\" tg-width=\"803\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In addition, the global \"aftershocks\" brought about by changes in Japan's monetary policy, the rapid recovery of China's economy in the third quarter, and the Biden administration's unusual emphasis on inflation before the mid-term elections in November. These factors will lead to a downward inflection point in U.S. bond yields that may not occur until the fourth quarter.</p><p>For China, regardless of the grand narrative of geopolitics and anti-globalization, from the perspective of market logic, there will be greater upward pressure on bond yields in the second half of the year. We tend to think that the 10-year bond yield will stand in stages in the second half of the year. 2.90%, touching 3%:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f302c8709a5fb3156a0feae16b77a4bb\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>From the perspective of macro environment and market logic, overseas markets are experiencing a trade-off of inflation and recession, but domestically, at least in the third quarter, the rapid economic recovery, the recovery of service industry and the accelerated rise of pork may lead to the CPI rising by 3 or even exceeding the market in stages. Expectations, superimposed on the fanning of overseas inflation narratives, are obviously not good news for the bond market; And<b>The experience of pork prices rising sharply in 2019 and bond interest rates falling instead has no reference significance in 2022</b>--The macro background at that time was that global inflation was sluggish, and central banks turned to easing under weak fundamentals, which was quite different from this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c6c0293c9458a529f4248e446009355\" tg-width=\"802\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>From the external environment, before the adjustment of Japan's monetary policy, the \"Asian currency war\" led by the depreciation of the yen has not yet ended</b>, even with the aura of U.S. tariff reduction and exemption to China, there is still pressure on the RMB to depreciate. Superimposed on the \"strength\" of the U.S. dollar and U.S. bond yields, monetary policy has added a layer of internal and external game in addition to the logic of returning to normal.<b>How to balance exchange rate depreciation with stabilizing inflation expectations will bring additional uncertainty to the bond market.</b></p><p>Once the logic of \"recovery + inflation + monetary policy returning to normalization + limiting imported inflation\" is formed,<b>De-leverage in the bond market will accelerate bond market adjustments</b>。</p><p>For the domestic equity market,<b>Under the inflation narrative, the downward inflection point of long-term U.S. bond yields has been postponed, the domestic bond market is facing adjustments, and the risk of the Bank of Japan's \"grey rhino\" is superimposed. We will be more cautious about the performance of growth stocks in the third quarter than the market</b>, especially in some sectors with rapid valuation recovery and hot transactions in the second quarter, risks need to be controlled.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caf9e145bba244c2267f601c20b4f133\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Risk warning:</p><p>External demand fell due to the tightening of overseas monetary policy, and the spread of the domestic epidemic exceeded market expectations; Europe and the United States accelerated into a deep recession in the third quarter, European and American central banks were forced to turn ahead of schedule, long-term bond yields fell ahead of schedule, and Japan's YCC policy pressure decreased; OPEC increased production significantly more than expected in the second half of the year, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine reached a consensus, the substantial improvement in crude oil supply led to a drop in oil prices, and global inflationary pressures eased.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzUzMzEyODIyMA==&mid=2247499790&idx=1&sn=0616e2d5b88409b0750bc7c75927f617&chksm=faaa357dcdddbc6b9d83fe293f78f6464bfbb114a5d4ec2245a98352cc2e204f3388d970afe2&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0710p4fnASCgjEhnoxYWSG13&sharer_sharetime=1657442265849&sharer_shareid=00a55b671777cf0e253d4693000ead51%23rd\">川阅全球宏观</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65f441cb44a16f93fb854d432eef3637","relate_stocks":{"EWJ":"日本ETF-iShares MSCI"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzUzMzEyODIyMA==&mid=2247499790&idx=1&sn=0616e2d5b88409b0750bc7c75927f617&chksm=faaa357dcdddbc6b9d83fe293f78f6464bfbb114a5d4ec2245a98352cc2e204f3388d970afe2&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0710p4fnASCgjEhnoxYWSG13&sharer_sharetime=1657442265849&sharer_shareid=00a55b671777cf0e253d4693000ead51%23rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158704109","content_text":"从OPEC秘书长巴尔金多意外身亡，到日本前首相安倍晋三意外被袭。能将这些事件串联起来的市场叙事可能是通胀已经从经济问题演变成政治和社会问题（当然，安倍遇刺背后还有宗教的因素）：油价是2022年通胀高企的重要导火索，但是OPEC迟迟未能有效提高产量缓解不断趋紧的供需格局（图1）；而日本央行在通胀上涨的情况下依旧无限制坚持YCC（收益率曲线控制政策）和政策宽松，现任央行行长黑田东彦是安倍经济学（通过量化宽松和扩大财政支出刺激经济）的拥虿（图2）。本篇报告我们想要针对后一方面进行分析：安倍倒下后日本央行将如何应对通胀的新挑战？对市场有何影响？我们认为日本不会抛弃安倍经济学和YCC政策，不过在海外通胀比衰退更加令人难以忍受的背景下，下半年至少需要注意三点风险：日本央行可能会选择一次性、超预期调整YCC政策的波动区间，而这无疑会阶段性加剧全球债市的压力；美债收益率的向下拐点可能会拖后至第四季度甚至更晚才会出现；对于国内来说，通胀和货币政策正常化叙事的强化将导致债券收益率上涨压力更大。对于YCC政策，日本央行的态度将是改变而非抛弃。我们主要回答三个问题：为什么需要改变？为什么不会抛弃？如何改变？疫情后通胀回归、经济波动明显加大，而2016年推出的YCC框架则定位于低通胀和低波动。日本央行在2016年9月推出YCC政策，将长端国债收益率固定在0%附近，有其特定的经济环境和政策诉求：一方面，YCC政策的初衷是为了帮助日本走出长期存在的通缩困境；另一方面YCC的两个主要功能是：通过日元汇率贬值拉动出口、引入输入性通胀；为扩大的政府支出创造良好的融资环境。当前看，YCC的不合时宜性凸显在三点上：第一，经过疫情的洗礼，全球已经逐步走出了过去10年的通缩阴影，当前以及未来十年我们可能迎来高通胀、高波动的年代，日本同样不能幸免，这与YCC政策最初的设置是相悖的；第二，在经济高波动的情况下，顺周期的YCC政策会进一步放大经济的动荡，这明显不适合日本老龄化、低欲望的社会；第三，缺乏灵活的调节机制，容易受到投机资金的攻击。YCC区间调整的频率很低，2016年推出以来仅2018年和2021年拓宽过区间。YCC政策的顺周期主要原因是作为调控中介目标的长端国债收益率是顺周期的。经济下行、通胀不振时为了不让债券收益率跌破下限，日本央行反而需要谨慎地进行债券购买，2020年疫情导致的衰退期间日本央行资产负债表扩张的速度远远慢于欧美央行（图5）；而在经济过热、通胀上涨的情况下，为了避免债券收益率升破上限，日本央行又不得不加大债券的购买量，可能导致通胀火上浇油。而最吸引投机资金的一点是，YCC政策缺乏弹性、调整往往滞后。YCC政策的基本构造是一个稳定的中枢（作为政策目标，现在为0%）和一个可以调整宽窄的波动区间（但调整频率偏低）。这一点和2015年8月之前的人民币汇率定价颇为相似，而结果是在经济下行和投机资金的压力下，人民币汇率的定价放弃了锚定中枢，但是依旧保留波动区间的限制（图6，当前人民币兑美元的日度波动依旧存在2%的上下限限制）。不过我们认为，日本央行不会放弃YCC，同样日本政府不会放弃安倍经济学。第一，从短期看，有澳大利亚央行放弃YCC、债券收益率失控的前车之鉴（图7），日本放弃YCC导致的日债收益率和日元上行会让日本经济更加疲软。第二，从中长期政策来看，“安倍经济学”是日本经济的正确出路，而YCC政策是其中重要的一环。在人口老龄化、青年躺平化的日本，家庭和企业的借贷需求依旧不强，通过低汇率保持出口竞争力、积极的财政支出发挥拉动总需求的主要作用（图8和9），而背后重要的支柱就是相较其他经济体更加宽松的货币政策、更加低廉的融资成本。第三，从国家和政策定位上，至少在金融上日本选择了深度绑定美国，早已放弃了日元国际化的野心，这意味着和美联储不同，保证国内财政低成本融资、托底经济在日本货币政策体系中的居于首位，即使日本央行持有日债规模占全市场的比例已经超过了50%、挤出外国投资者也在所不惜，与之相对，无论是美国需要保持美元的全球储备地位，还是中国需要提高人民币的国际化程度，都需要保证债券收益率处于合理水平，保证债市流动性和对外开放程度。怎么变？下半年日本央行会上调YCC上限的利率至0.5%以上（现在为0.25%），而且很可能会采取一步到位、超市场预期的方式。由于日本央行主要锚定10年期日债，这导致日债收益率曲线在10年期限处下凸（图12），我们通过正常情况下曲线的陡峭程度来估算10年日债收益率的合理位置，以7年期为例（按近期高点0.27%和0.19%的10年与7年期限利差计算），在不改变基准政策利率的情况下，10年期日债上限水平至少在0.46%上方（图13），考虑到市场情绪以及日本央行调整区间的习惯（幅度通常为5bp的整数倍），下半年YCC区间很可能拓宽至±0.5%，本质上相当于加息至少25bp。往后看，在高通胀、高波动时代YCC可能阶段性演变成一种利率上限机制，上限利率调整比中枢利率的政策信号更明确，日本央行可以在控制日债融资成本的前提下，通过更频繁地调整上限利率和债券购买来进行逆周期操作。我们认为日本央行会一次性、大幅度、超市场预期调整的原因主要在于，历史经验表明调整僵化的定价机制（例如固定汇率机制）不宜充分引导市场预期、循序渐进，这反而会导致更多的投机资金押注、套利，造成更大的市场动荡。日本央行这么做，日债会崩盘？不会，其实日本央行在操作上并不被动。一方面，日本央行是日本国债现货市场上最大的持有方，海外机构的占比仅在10%左右（图14）；另一方面，投机资金做空日债主要是通过期货（流动性更好），在现货市场流动性不足（期货交割不方便）的情况下，做空期货主要是短期和阶段性的（主要在日本央行议息会议前，图15）。日本央行的压力主要来自于政治和社会民意层面。不过日本央行主动拓宽YCC区间，会导致短期内全球债券市场再次承压。日本央行作为发达经济体货币政策“鸽派”最后的大本营，它的转向将具有里程碑式的象征意义。除此之外，作为全球对外投资头寸最大的经济体，YCC变动带来的利率和汇率变化，很可能会使得日本调整（很可能是减少）对外固定收益投资的敞口，进一步加剧市场动荡。日元：在日本央行行动前贬值压力一直存在，尤其是议息会议前后。一方面，在日本央行行动前，美联储持续加息客观上会拉大日美利差，导致日元走弱；另一方面，在美联储货币政策转向前，资金会持续在日本央行议息会议前押注其调整政策，机构在做空日债期货的同时，做空日元是很好的对冲仓位（日本央行调整政策，日债期货赚钱；日本央行按兵不动，日元空头赚钱）。我们认为140是日元的一道坎。日本5月的进口价格同比增速超过40%，创下1980年以来的新高，其中日元贬值贡献了约40%的增速。由于物价的上涨，岸田内阁的不支持率在7月已经升至履新以来的高位27%。我们认为日元跌破140元后，来自社会和政治层面的压力会迫使日本央行重新评估现行的政策，日本财政部也适时进行外汇干预。对于安倍晋三被刺和下半年日本货币政策“灰犀牛”的外溢影响，我们觉得主要关注两个点：一是美债收益率的向下拐点可能会较之前来得更晚，二是国内债券收益率下半年上涨的压力可能会更大。美债收益率向下的拐点会出现得更晚，可能要到第四季度甚至更晚。近期的一系列事件表明不应低估当前欧美央行政策紧缩的决心。我们认为2022年美债的走势特点可能需要参考20世纪70至80年代，21世纪以来美债收益率向下拐点在衰退前出现的模式已经不适用了。21世纪以来10年期美债收益率挂点往往在衰退前出现的重要原因是美联储往往会经济下行压力较大时率先开启前瞻式降息（图16），但是当前高通胀下的货币政策操作可能更像20世纪70至80年代，政策转向往往发生在衰退开始之后，这也导致债券收益率的高点（或者二次冲高点）会出现在衰退期间（图17）。除此之外，日本货币政策变动带来的全球“余震”，中国经济在第三季度的快速复苏，以及拜登政府在11月中期选举前对于通胀的异常重视。这些因素会导致美债收益率的向下拐点可能要到第四季度才会出现。对于中国来说，抛开地缘政治和逆全球化的宏大叙事，从市场逻辑看，下半年债券收益率上行的压力会更大，我们倾向于认为下半年10年期债券收益率会阶段性站上2.90%，触及3%：从宏观环境和市场逻辑上看，海外市场是通胀和衰退此消彼长，但国内，至少在第三季度，经济快速复苏，服务业恢复和猪肉加速上涨可能导致CPI阶段性上3、甚至超市场预期，叠加海外通胀叙事的煽风点火，这对于债市明显不是好消息；而2019年猪肉价格大涨、债券利率反而下行的经历在2022年不具备参考意义——彼时的宏观大背景是全球通胀低迷，基本面偏弱下央行纷纷转向宽松，这与今年存在较大差异。从外部环境看，日本货币政策调整前，日元贬值引领的“亚洲货币战”尚未结束，即使有美国对华减免关税的光环存在，人民币还是存在贬值压力，叠加美元和美债收益率的“坚挺”，货币政策在回归常态的逻辑外，又多了一层内外博弈的色彩，如何在汇率贬值和稳定通胀预期之间平衡会给债市带来额外的不确定性。一旦“复苏+通胀+货币政策回归正常化+限制输入性通胀”的逻辑形成，债市杠杆的去化会加速债市调整。对于国内权益市场来说，通胀叙事下长端美债收益率向下拐点延期，国内债市面临调整，叠加日本央行“灰犀牛”的风险，我们对第三季度成长股的表现较市场会更趋谨慎，尤其是部分第二季度估值恢复迅速、成交火热的板块，需要控制风险。风险提示：海外货币政策收紧下外需回落，国内疫情扩散超市场预期；欧美第三季度加速进入深度衰退，欧美央行被迫提前转向，长端债券收益率提前回落，日本YCC政策压力减小；OPEC下半年超预期大幅增产、俄乌冲突达成共识，原油供给大幅改善导致油价下跌，全球通胀压力缓和。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EWJ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2699,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9046629861,"gmtCreate":1656341737553,"gmtModify":1676535809694,"author":{"id":"3575347610709013","authorId":"3575347610709013","name":"han妈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575347610709013","authorIdStr":"3575347610709013"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"y","listText":"y","text":"y","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9046629861","repostId":"1108443730","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108443730","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1656340656,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1108443730?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-27 22:37","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"The crisis is still fermenting! Hedge fund giants in the currency circle are on the verge of default","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108443730","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"随着偿还6.7亿美元的最后期限临近，处于危机中心的币圈对冲基金正面临违约风险。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Han Xuyang</p><p>As the deadline to repay $670 million approaches, currency hedge funds at the center of the crisis are at risk of default.</p><p>On Monday, cryptocurrency-focused hedge fund Three Arrows Capital had to meet today's deadline to repay more than $670 million in loans to digital asset brokerage Voyager Digital or face default. This could have a ripple effect across the digital asset market.</p><p>Known as one of the most famous cryptocurrency hedge funds, Three Arrows Capital is known for its highly leveraged bets. But the hedge fund is facing potential liquidity and solvency issues in recent weeks as terraUSD and luna collapsed, loans were called on margin and the cryptocurrency market plummeted. A \"Lehman crisis\" is constantly fermenting in the currency circle.</p><p><b>Voyager Digital said last week that it had lent 15,250 Bitcoin and $350 million of its stablecoin USDC to Three Arrows Capital. At Monday's prices, the total amount of loans is more than $675 million. Voyager asked Three Arrows Capital to repay $25 million by June 24 and pay off the entire outstanding loan by June 27.</b></p><p>The price of cryptocurrencies continues to be under pressure. On Monday, Bitcoin hovered around $21,000, down about 53% this year; Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has signaled further rate hike to control severe inflation. Inflation has taken riskier assets out of momentum to move higher.</p><p>Voyager said last week that neither payment was repaid, adding that it could issue a notice of default if Three Arrows Capital did not repay the money.<b>Voyager said it was \"intending to seek compensation from Three Arrows Capital\" and was discussing \"available legal remedies\" with its advisers.</b></p><p>As one of the largest cryptocurrency-focused hedge funds, Three Arrows Capital has borrowed large sums of money from different companies and invested in many different digital asset projects.<b>This has raised fears of further contagion across the industry.</b></p><p>Vijay Ayyar, vice president of corporate development and international at cryptocurrency exchange Luno, said in an interview with the media:</p><p>The problem is that their (Three Arrows Capital) asset value has also dropped significantly with the market, so overall, this is not a good sign. What remains to be seen is whether there are large, remaining players who hold exposure to these products, which could lead to further \"contagion\". Some crypto companies are already facing a liquidity crisis due to the market downturn. This month, lending company Celsius suspended withdrawals from customers, citing \"extreme market conditions\". Another crypto lender, Babel Finance, said this month that it was \"facing unusual liquidity pressures\" and stopped withdrawals.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The crisis is still fermenting! Hedge fund giants in the currency circle are on the verge of default</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe crisis is still fermenting! Hedge fund giants in the currency circle are on the verge of default\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-27 22:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Han Xuyang</p><p>As the deadline to repay $670 million approaches, currency hedge funds at the center of the crisis are at risk of default.</p><p>On Monday, cryptocurrency-focused hedge fund Three Arrows Capital had to meet today's deadline to repay more than $670 million in loans to digital asset brokerage Voyager Digital or face default. This could have a ripple effect across the digital asset market.</p><p>Known as one of the most famous cryptocurrency hedge funds, Three Arrows Capital is known for its highly leveraged bets. But the hedge fund is facing potential liquidity and solvency issues in recent weeks as terraUSD and luna collapsed, loans were called on margin and the cryptocurrency market plummeted. A \"Lehman crisis\" is constantly fermenting in the currency circle.</p><p><b>Voyager Digital said last week that it had lent 15,250 Bitcoin and $350 million of its stablecoin USDC to Three Arrows Capital. At Monday's prices, the total amount of loans is more than $675 million. Voyager asked Three Arrows Capital to repay $25 million by June 24 and pay off the entire outstanding loan by June 27.</b></p><p>The price of cryptocurrencies continues to be under pressure. On Monday, Bitcoin hovered around $21,000, down about 53% this year; Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has signaled further rate hike to control severe inflation. Inflation has taken riskier assets out of momentum to move higher.</p><p>Voyager said last week that neither payment was repaid, adding that it could issue a notice of default if Three Arrows Capital did not repay the money.<b>Voyager said it was \"intending to seek compensation from Three Arrows Capital\" and was discussing \"available legal remedies\" with its advisers.</b></p><p>As one of the largest cryptocurrency-focused hedge funds, Three Arrows Capital has borrowed large sums of money from different companies and invested in many different digital asset projects.<b>This has raised fears of further contagion across the industry.</b></p><p>Vijay Ayyar, vice president of corporate development and international at cryptocurrency exchange Luno, said in an interview with the media:</p><p>The problem is that their (Three Arrows Capital) asset value has also dropped significantly with the market, so overall, this is not a good sign. What remains to be seen is whether there are large, remaining players who hold exposure to these products, which could lead to further \"contagion\". Some crypto companies are already facing a liquidity crisis due to the market downturn. This month, lending company Celsius suspended withdrawals from customers, citing \"extreme market conditions\". Another crypto lender, Babel Finance, said this month that it was \"facing unusual liquidity pressures\" and stopped withdrawals.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3663150\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/683b0ebafc925391c935f27da1a18832","relate_stocks":{"GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3663150","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1108443730","content_text":"作者：韩旭阳随着偿还6.7亿美元的最后期限临近，处于危机中心的币圈对冲基金正面临违约风险。周一，专注于加密货币的对冲基金三箭资本（Three Arrows Capital）必须在今日这最后期限前偿还对数字资产经纪公司 Voyager Digital 超过6.7亿美元的贷款，否则将面临违约。这可能会对整个数字资产市场产生连锁反应。三箭资本被称为最著名的加密货币对冲基金之一，以其高杠杆押注而闻名。但最近几周，随着 terraUSD 和 luna 崩溃、贷款被追缴保证金以及加密货币市场暴跌，这家对冲基金正面临着潜在的流动性和偿付能力问题。一场“雷曼危机”正在币圈不断发酵。Voyager Digital上周表示，它已向三箭资本借出15250个比特币和3.5亿美元的稳定币USDC。按周一的价格计算，贷款总额超过6.75亿美元。Voyager 要求三箭资本在6月24日前偿还2500万美元，并在6月27日前还清全部未偿还贷款。加密货币的价格持续承压。周一，比特币在21000美元附近徘徊，今年以来下跌了约53%；与此同时，美联储已暗示将进一步加息，以控制严重的通胀。通胀已令风险较高的资产失去走高的动力。Voyager 上周表示，这两笔款项都没有偿还，并补充说，如果三箭资本不偿还这笔钱，它可能会发出违约通知。Voyager 表示，它正“打算从三箭资本寻求赔偿”，并正在与其顾问讨论“可用的法律补救措施”。三箭资本作为规模最大的、专注于加密货币的对冲基金之一，从不同的公司借入了大量资金，并投资于许多不同的数字资产项目。这引发了对整个行业进一步蔓延的担忧。加密货币交易所 Luno 的企业发展和国际副总裁Vijay Ayyar在接受媒体采访时表示：问题是他们（三箭资本）的资产价值也随着市场大幅下跌，所以总的来说，这不是一个好迹象。有待观察的是，是否还有大型、剩余的参与者持有对这些产品的敞口，这可能导致进一步的“传染”。由于市场低迷，一些加密公司已经面临流动性危机。本月，贷款公司 Celsius 以“极端的市场条件”为由，暂停了客户的提款。另一家加密货币贷款公司 Babel Finance 本月表示，它“面临不同寻常的流动性压力”，并停止了提款。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GBTC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2362,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9043888904,"gmtCreate":1655905437808,"gmtModify":1676535729148,"author":{"id":"3575347610709013","authorId":"3575347610709013","name":"han妈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575347610709013","authorIdStr":"3575347610709013"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"k","listText":"k","text":"k","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9043888904","repostId":"1123729187","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123729187","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1655904821,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123729187?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-22 21:33","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Powell: The U.S. economy is very strong! The Fed needs to accelerate its rate hike","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123729187","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"鲍威尔表示，美国经济非常强劲，能够应对更紧缩的政策；美联储坚定致力于让通胀率回到2%；继续加息是合适的，决定将逐次会议作出。鲍威尔表示，最新的通胀指标表明，美联储需要加快加息步伐。美联储将继续尽可能清晰地传达其想法。美联储需要灵活地对数据做出反应。他承认目前美国通货膨胀率过高，需要降低。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Powell said the U.S. economy is very strong and can handle tighter policies; The Fed is firmly committed to bringing inflation back to 2%; It is appropriate to continue the rate hike, and decisions will be taken meeting by meeting. Powell said the latest inflation measures suggest the Fed needs to accelerate its rate hike. On June 22, at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell gave a testimony statement on the semi-annual monetary policy report before the Senate Banking Committee.</p><p>POWELL: Continued rate hike is appropriate. The speed of rate hike depends on future data. The Federal Reserve is firmly committed to returning inflation to 2%. The U.S. economy is very strong and can handle tighter policies. The Fed will continue to communicate its ideas as clearly as possible. Inflation must be reduced to maintain a strong job market. Financial conditions have tightened \"significantly\", reflecting actions taken so far and expected actions.</p><p>Available data for May suggests core inflation is likely to remain at an annualized level of 4.9% in April, or decline slightly. In the face of a rapidly changing economic environment, our policies have been adjusting and will continue to do so. Labor demand is \"very strong,\" while labor supply remains sluggish and labor force participation rates have barely changed since January. The growth of corporate fixed asset investment appears to be slowing, and the housing market appears to be weakening to some extent due to rising mortgage rates. The speed of economic growth depends on future data. The Fed needs to be flexible in reacting to data.</p><p>Powell said recent data showed real GDP rose in the current quarter and consumer spending remained strong; According to the data obtained in May, the annual rate of core inflation is likely to remain at 4.9% or slow slightly. Financial conditions have tightened \"significantly\", reflecting the actions taken so far and the actions expected. In the face of the rapidly changing economic environment, \"our policies have been adjusting and will continue to do so\". Inflation has significantly exceeded expectations, and there may be more surprises in the future. The Fed needs to be flexible in responding to upcoming data and changing prospects.</p><p>POWELL: A cascade of additional rate hike has been priced in by the market, which is appropriate.<span style=\"color:rgba(245,32,16,1);\"><b>Latest inflation measures suggest we need to accelerate the pace of rate hike</b></span><b>。</b>We fully understand the inflation problem and are actively dealing with it. Price stability is the cornerstone of economic development. We have to restore price stability, and we will. The market's feedback on our rate hike is quite good. We will see interest rates continue to rise rapidly. We are firmly committed to bringing down inflation and need to do so to get back to the labor market we all want.</p><p>Powell: The U.S. economy is very competitive, but there are also some industries that are less competitive. We have never used rules on a large scale to make policies in real time. The end of the year will be close to the level required by the Taylor Rule. Note: Taylor's rule is one of the commonly used simple monetary policy rules. It is a short-term interest rate adjustment rule determined by John Taylor of Stanford University in 1993 according to the actual experience of American monetary policy. Taylor believes that to maintain a stable real short-term interest rate and a neutral policy stance, nominal interest rates should be raised (lowered) when the output gap is positive (negative) and the inflation gap exceeds (below) the target value.</p><p>Powell: Price inflation is a macroeconomic issue. There's really nothing the Fed can do about oil prices, and this is not the Fed's judgment on competition in the oil industry.</p><p><b>Related reading</b></p><p><b>Understand the details of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's recent blockbuster testimony in one article</b></p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told members of Congress Wednesday that the central bank is determined to reduce inflation and has the ability to do so. He admitted that the current inflation rate in the United States is too high and needs to be reduced.</p><p>Within the Fed, we understand the difficulties caused by high inflation. We are firmly committed to bringing inflation down, and we are moving quickly, Powell said in a speech to the Senate Banking Committee. We have both the tools we need and the determination we need to restore price stability on behalf of American households and businesses.</p><p>While expressing his determination on inflation, Powell said the economic situation is generally favorable, the job market is strong and demand continues to be high. However, he acknowledged that inflation was too high and needed to be reduced.</p><p>In the coming months, we will look for compelling evidence that inflation is falling, consistent with inflation returning to 2%, Powell said. We expect that the current rate hike will be appropriate; the pace of these changes will continue to depend on new data coming out and the changing economic outlook.</p><p>His comments highlight the challenges facing the Federal Reserve. At present, the Federal Reserve is rate hike at the fastest pace since 1980s to slow economic growth and reduce inflation.</p><p>The Fed's benchmark Federal Funds rate is currently at a historically low level between 1.5% and 1.75%, but remains at levels seen in early 2020, when the pandemic caused Fed officials to cut interest rates to near zero. They kept interest rates near zero until March of this year.</p><p>The latest forecast released by Fed officials last week showed that Federal Funds rate will be raised to at least 3% this year, with most expected to rise to the 3.25%-3.5% range by December. That would be 1 percentage point higher than the highest level in 2018 after the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p>Powell said financial conditions have now tightened significantly as borrowing costs began to rise last fall in anticipation of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year.</p><p>Federal Funds rate is the overnight rate of interbank loans, which affects the cost of borrowing across the economy, including interest rates on mortgages, credit cards, and corporate loans. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage rose to 5.98% last week from 5.65% last week, the highest level since 2008, the American Mortgage Bankers Association reported Wednesday. It was the biggest weekly increase in mortgage rates since 2009.</p><p>Powell's testimony didn't directly address the difficult trade-offs the Fed could face next year, especially if the Fed's policy measures cripple the job market but fail to reduce inflation in a compelling way.</p><p>Powell said at a news conference last week that it will be increasingly difficult for the Fed to avoid a recession if energy and commodity prices and supply chain bottlenecks do not ease soon. The Federal Reserve is seeking to achieve what it calls a soft landing by cooling economic growth to a low enough level of inflation without causing a downturn.</p><p>He pointed out that some uncertainties have exacerbated inflationary pressures. Powell's remarks were part of a semi-annual report on monetary policy mandated by Congress.</p><p>This is a particularly delicate time for Fed policy. In the past three meetings, the Fed has accumulated rate hike of 150 basis points (or 1.5 percentage points) in response to annual inflation, which is growing at the fastest rate in more than 40 years.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Powell: The U.S. economy is very strong! The Fed needs to accelerate its rate hike</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPowell: The U.S. economy is very strong! The Fed needs to accelerate its rate hike\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-22 21:33</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Powell said the U.S. economy is very strong and can handle tighter policies; The Fed is firmly committed to bringing inflation back to 2%; It is appropriate to continue the rate hike, and decisions will be taken meeting by meeting. Powell said the latest inflation measures suggest the Fed needs to accelerate its rate hike. On June 22, at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell gave a testimony statement on the semi-annual monetary policy report before the Senate Banking Committee.</p><p>POWELL: Continued rate hike is appropriate. The speed of rate hike depends on future data. The Federal Reserve is firmly committed to returning inflation to 2%. The U.S. economy is very strong and can handle tighter policies. The Fed will continue to communicate its ideas as clearly as possible. Inflation must be reduced to maintain a strong job market. Financial conditions have tightened \"significantly\", reflecting actions taken so far and expected actions.</p><p>Available data for May suggests core inflation is likely to remain at an annualized level of 4.9% in April, or decline slightly. In the face of a rapidly changing economic environment, our policies have been adjusting and will continue to do so. Labor demand is \"very strong,\" while labor supply remains sluggish and labor force participation rates have barely changed since January. The growth of corporate fixed asset investment appears to be slowing, and the housing market appears to be weakening to some extent due to rising mortgage rates. The speed of economic growth depends on future data. The Fed needs to be flexible in reacting to data.</p><p>Powell said recent data showed real GDP rose in the current quarter and consumer spending remained strong; According to the data obtained in May, the annual rate of core inflation is likely to remain at 4.9% or slow slightly. Financial conditions have tightened \"significantly\", reflecting the actions taken so far and the actions expected. In the face of the rapidly changing economic environment, \"our policies have been adjusting and will continue to do so\". Inflation has significantly exceeded expectations, and there may be more surprises in the future. The Fed needs to be flexible in responding to upcoming data and changing prospects.</p><p>POWELL: A cascade of additional rate hike has been priced in by the market, which is appropriate.<span style=\"color:rgba(245,32,16,1);\"><b>Latest inflation measures suggest we need to accelerate the pace of rate hike</b></span><b>。</b>We fully understand the inflation problem and are actively dealing with it. Price stability is the cornerstone of economic development. We have to restore price stability, and we will. The market's feedback on our rate hike is quite good. We will see interest rates continue to rise rapidly. We are firmly committed to bringing down inflation and need to do so to get back to the labor market we all want.</p><p>Powell: The U.S. economy is very competitive, but there are also some industries that are less competitive. We have never used rules on a large scale to make policies in real time. The end of the year will be close to the level required by the Taylor Rule. Note: Taylor's rule is one of the commonly used simple monetary policy rules. It is a short-term interest rate adjustment rule determined by John Taylor of Stanford University in 1993 according to the actual experience of American monetary policy. Taylor believes that to maintain a stable real short-term interest rate and a neutral policy stance, nominal interest rates should be raised (lowered) when the output gap is positive (negative) and the inflation gap exceeds (below) the target value.</p><p>Powell: Price inflation is a macroeconomic issue. There's really nothing the Fed can do about oil prices, and this is not the Fed's judgment on competition in the oil industry.</p><p><b>Related reading</b></p><p><b>Understand the details of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's recent blockbuster testimony in one article</b></p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told members of Congress Wednesday that the central bank is determined to reduce inflation and has the ability to do so. He admitted that the current inflation rate in the United States is too high and needs to be reduced.</p><p>Within the Fed, we understand the difficulties caused by high inflation. We are firmly committed to bringing inflation down, and we are moving quickly, Powell said in a speech to the Senate Banking Committee. We have both the tools we need and the determination we need to restore price stability on behalf of American households and businesses.</p><p>While expressing his determination on inflation, Powell said the economic situation is generally favorable, the job market is strong and demand continues to be high. However, he acknowledged that inflation was too high and needed to be reduced.</p><p>In the coming months, we will look for compelling evidence that inflation is falling, consistent with inflation returning to 2%, Powell said. We expect that the current rate hike will be appropriate; the pace of these changes will continue to depend on new data coming out and the changing economic outlook.</p><p>His comments highlight the challenges facing the Federal Reserve. At present, the Federal Reserve is rate hike at the fastest pace since 1980s to slow economic growth and reduce inflation.</p><p>The Fed's benchmark Federal Funds rate is currently at a historically low level between 1.5% and 1.75%, but remains at levels seen in early 2020, when the pandemic caused Fed officials to cut interest rates to near zero. They kept interest rates near zero until March of this year.</p><p>The latest forecast released by Fed officials last week showed that Federal Funds rate will be raised to at least 3% this year, with most expected to rise to the 3.25%-3.5% range by December. That would be 1 percentage point higher than the highest level in 2018 after the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p>Powell said financial conditions have now tightened significantly as borrowing costs began to rise last fall in anticipation of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year.</p><p>Federal Funds rate is the overnight rate of interbank loans, which affects the cost of borrowing across the economy, including interest rates on mortgages, credit cards, and corporate loans. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage rose to 5.98% last week from 5.65% last week, the highest level since 2008, the American Mortgage Bankers Association reported Wednesday. It was the biggest weekly increase in mortgage rates since 2009.</p><p>Powell's testimony didn't directly address the difficult trade-offs the Fed could face next year, especially if the Fed's policy measures cripple the job market but fail to reduce inflation in a compelling way.</p><p>Powell said at a news conference last week that it will be increasingly difficult for the Fed to avoid a recession if energy and commodity prices and supply chain bottlenecks do not ease soon. The Federal Reserve is seeking to achieve what it calls a soft landing by cooling economic growth to a low enough level of inflation without causing a downturn.</p><p>He pointed out that some uncertainties have exacerbated inflationary pressures. Powell's remarks were part of a semi-annual report on monetary policy mandated by Congress.</p><p>This is a particularly delicate time for Fed policy. In the past three meetings, the Fed has accumulated rate hike of 150 basis points (or 1.5 percentage points) in response to annual inflation, which is growing at the fastest rate in more than 40 years.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/909f0c076f3fff78497a5c9be00e5429","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123729187","content_text":"鲍威尔表示，美国经济非常强劲，能够应对更紧缩的政策；美联储坚定致力于让通胀率回到2%；继续加息是合适的，决定将逐次会议作出。鲍威尔表示，最新的通胀指标表明，美联储需要加快加息步伐。6月22日，美东时间周三上午9点30分，美联储主席鲍威尔在参议院银行委员会上就半年度货币政策报告做证词陈述。鲍威尔：持续加息是适当的。加息的速度取决于未来的数据。美联储坚决承诺将通胀率恢复到2%。美国经济非常强劲，可以应对更紧缩的政策。美联储将继续尽可能清晰地传达其想法。必须降低通胀，才能维持强劲的就业市场。金融状况“显著”收紧，反映了迄今为止采取的行动和预期的行动。5月份的可用数据显示，4月份的核心通货膨胀率可能保持在年化4.9%的水平，或略有下降。面对快速变化的经济环境，我们的政策一直在调整，并将继续这样做。劳动力需求“非常强劲”，而劳动力供应仍然低迷，自1月份以来，劳动力参与率几乎没有变化。企业固定资产投资增长似乎正在放缓，住房市场似乎在一定程度上由于抵押贷款利率上升而走软。经济增长速度取决于未来的数据。美联储需要灵活地对数据做出反应。鲍威尔表示，最近的数据显示实质GDP在当前季度上升，消费者支出保持强劲；5月份所得数据显示，核心通胀年率可能保持在4.9%或略有放缓。金融状况已经“大幅”收紧，反映了到目前为止采取的行动和预期的行动。面对快速变化的经济环境，“我们的政策一直在调整适应，而且将继续如此”。通胀明显地超出预期，未来可能会有更多意外发生，美联储需灵活应对即将公布的数据和不断变化的前景。鲍威尔：一连串额外的加息已被市场消化，这是合适的。最新的通胀指标表明，我们需要加快加息步伐。我们完全理解通胀问题，正在积极应对通胀。价格稳定是经济发展的基石。我们必须恢复价格稳定，而且我们将会做到。市场对我们加息的反馈相当不错。我们将看到利率继续快速上升。我们坚决致力于降低通货膨胀，需要这样做才能回到我们都想要的劳动力市场。鲍威尔：美国经济的竞争力很强，但也有些行业的竞争力较弱。我们从来没有在大范围内使用规则来实时制定政策。年底将接近泰勒规则所要求的水平。注：泰勒规则是常用的简单货币政策规则之一，由斯坦福大学的约翰.泰勒于1993年根据美国货币政策的实际经验而确定的一种短期利率调整的规则。泰勒认为，保持实际短期利率稳定和中性政策立场，当产出缺口为正（负）和通胀缺口超过（低于）目标值时，应提高（降低）名义利率。鲍威尔：价格通胀是一个宏观经济问题。美联储对油价真的无能为力，这不是美联储对石油行业竞争的判断。相关阅读一文读懂美联储主席鲍威尔刚发表重磅证词细节美联储主席鲍威尔星期三对国会议员说，美联储决心降低通货膨胀，并且有能力做到这一点。他承认目前美国通货膨胀率过高，需要降低。「在美联储里面，我们理解高通胀造成的困难。我们坚决致力于降低通胀，我们正在迅速采取行动，」鲍威尔在参议院银行委员会(Senate Banking Committee)发表讲话时表示。「我们既有我们需要的工具，也有代表美国家庭和企业恢复物价稳定所需的决心。」鲍威尔在表达对通货膨胀的决心的同时表示，经济形势总体有利，就业市场强劲，需求持续高企。然而，他承认，通货膨胀率过高，需要降低。鲍威尔说:「在未来几个月里，我们将寻找令人信服的证据，表明通胀正在下降，与通胀回到2%相符。」「我们预计，目前的加息将是适当的;这些变化的速度将继续取决于新出炉的数据和不断变化的经济前景。」他的言论突显了美联储面临的挑战。目前，美联储正以上世纪80年代以来最快的速度加息，以减缓经济增长，降低通胀。美联储的基准联邦基金利率目前在1.5%至1.75%之间，处于历史低位，但仍维持在2020年初的水平，当时疫情导致美联储官员将利率下调至接近于零的水平。他们将利率维持在接近零的水平直到今年3月。美联储官员们上周公布的最新预测显示，今年将把联邦基金利率至少提高到3%，其中大多数预计到12月将升至3.25% - 3.5%的区间。这将比2018年2008年金融危机后的最高水平高出1个百分点。鲍威尔说，由于预期美联储将在今年加息，借款成本从去年秋天开始上升，金融状况「现在已经明显收紧」。联邦基金利率是银行间贷款的隔夜利率，它影响着整个经济的借贷成本，包括抵押贷款、信用卡和企业贷款的利率。美国抵押贷款银行家协会周三公布，上周30年期固定抵押贷款的平均利率从上周的5.65%升至5.98%，为2008年以来的最高水平。这是自2009年以来抵押贷款利率最大的一周涨幅。鲍威尔的证词并没有直接提到美联储明年可能面临的艰难权衡，尤其是如果美联储的政策措施削弱了就业市场，但又没有以令人信服的方式降低通胀。鲍威尔在上周的新闻发布会上说，如果能源和大宗商品价格以及供应链瓶颈问题不能很快缓解，美联储将越来越难以避免经济衰退。美联储正寻求通过给经济增长降温，使其足够低的通胀水平，同时又不会导致经济下滑，从而实现所谓的软着陆。他指出，一些不确定性因素加剧了通胀压力。鲍威尔的讲话是国会授权的货币政策半年度报告的一部分。对于美联储的政策来说，这是一个特别微妙的时刻。在过去的3次会议中，美联储已累计加息150个基点(即1.5个百分点)，以应对正以40多年来最快速度增长的年度通胀。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2607,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9043881707,"gmtCreate":1655905431809,"gmtModify":1676535729038,"author":{"id":"3575347610709013","authorId":"3575347610709013","name":"han妈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575347610709013","authorIdStr":"3575347610709013"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ｏ","listText":"ｏ","text":"ｏ","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9043881707","repostId":"1123729187","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123729187","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1655904821,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123729187?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-22 21:33","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Powell: The U.S. economy is very strong! The Fed needs to accelerate its rate hike","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123729187","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"鲍威尔表示，美国经济非常强劲，能够应对更紧缩的政策；美联储坚定致力于让通胀率回到2%；继续加息是合适的，决定将逐次会议作出。鲍威尔表示，最新的通胀指标表明，美联储需要加快加息步伐。美联储将继续尽可能清晰地传达其想法。美联储需要灵活地对数据做出反应。他承认目前美国通货膨胀率过高，需要降低。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Powell said the U.S. economy is very strong and can handle tighter policies; The Fed is firmly committed to bringing inflation back to 2%; It is appropriate to continue the rate hike, and decisions will be taken meeting by meeting. Powell said the latest inflation measures suggest the Fed needs to accelerate its rate hike. On June 22, at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell gave a testimony statement on the semi-annual monetary policy report before the Senate Banking Committee.</p><p>POWELL: Continued rate hike is appropriate. The speed of rate hike depends on future data. The Federal Reserve is firmly committed to returning inflation to 2%. The U.S. economy is very strong and can handle tighter policies. The Fed will continue to communicate its ideas as clearly as possible. Inflation must be reduced to maintain a strong job market. Financial conditions have tightened \"significantly\", reflecting actions taken so far and expected actions.</p><p>Available data for May suggests core inflation is likely to remain at an annualized level of 4.9% in April, or decline slightly. In the face of a rapidly changing economic environment, our policies have been adjusting and will continue to do so. Labor demand is \"very strong,\" while labor supply remains sluggish and labor force participation rates have barely changed since January. The growth of corporate fixed asset investment appears to be slowing, and the housing market appears to be weakening to some extent due to rising mortgage rates. The speed of economic growth depends on future data. The Fed needs to be flexible in reacting to data.</p><p>Powell said recent data showed real GDP rose in the current quarter and consumer spending remained strong; According to the data obtained in May, the annual rate of core inflation is likely to remain at 4.9% or slow slightly. Financial conditions have tightened \"significantly\", reflecting the actions taken so far and the actions expected. In the face of the rapidly changing economic environment, \"our policies have been adjusting and will continue to do so\". Inflation has significantly exceeded expectations, and there may be more surprises in the future. The Fed needs to be flexible in responding to upcoming data and changing prospects.</p><p>POWELL: A cascade of additional rate hike has been priced in by the market, which is appropriate.<span style=\"color:rgba(245,32,16,1);\"><b>Latest inflation measures suggest we need to accelerate the pace of rate hike</b></span><b>。</b>We fully understand the inflation problem and are actively dealing with it. Price stability is the cornerstone of economic development. We have to restore price stability, and we will. The market's feedback on our rate hike is quite good. We will see interest rates continue to rise rapidly. We are firmly committed to bringing down inflation and need to do so to get back to the labor market we all want.</p><p>Powell: The U.S. economy is very competitive, but there are also some industries that are less competitive. We have never used rules on a large scale to make policies in real time. The end of the year will be close to the level required by the Taylor Rule. Note: Taylor's rule is one of the commonly used simple monetary policy rules. It is a short-term interest rate adjustment rule determined by John Taylor of Stanford University in 1993 according to the actual experience of American monetary policy. Taylor believes that to maintain a stable real short-term interest rate and a neutral policy stance, nominal interest rates should be raised (lowered) when the output gap is positive (negative) and the inflation gap exceeds (below) the target value.</p><p>Powell: Price inflation is a macroeconomic issue. There's really nothing the Fed can do about oil prices, and this is not the Fed's judgment on competition in the oil industry.</p><p><b>Related reading</b></p><p><b>Understand the details of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's recent blockbuster testimony in one article</b></p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told members of Congress Wednesday that the central bank is determined to reduce inflation and has the ability to do so. He admitted that the current inflation rate in the United States is too high and needs to be reduced.</p><p>Within the Fed, we understand the difficulties caused by high inflation. We are firmly committed to bringing inflation down, and we are moving quickly, Powell said in a speech to the Senate Banking Committee. We have both the tools we need and the determination we need to restore price stability on behalf of American households and businesses.</p><p>While expressing his determination on inflation, Powell said the economic situation is generally favorable, the job market is strong and demand continues to be high. However, he acknowledged that inflation was too high and needed to be reduced.</p><p>In the coming months, we will look for compelling evidence that inflation is falling, consistent with inflation returning to 2%, Powell said. We expect that the current rate hike will be appropriate; the pace of these changes will continue to depend on new data coming out and the changing economic outlook.</p><p>His comments highlight the challenges facing the Federal Reserve. At present, the Federal Reserve is rate hike at the fastest pace since 1980s to slow economic growth and reduce inflation.</p><p>The Fed's benchmark Federal Funds rate is currently at a historically low level between 1.5% and 1.75%, but remains at levels seen in early 2020, when the pandemic caused Fed officials to cut interest rates to near zero. They kept interest rates near zero until March of this year.</p><p>The latest forecast released by Fed officials last week showed that Federal Funds rate will be raised to at least 3% this year, with most expected to rise to the 3.25%-3.5% range by December. That would be 1 percentage point higher than the highest level in 2018 after the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p>Powell said financial conditions have now tightened significantly as borrowing costs began to rise last fall in anticipation of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year.</p><p>Federal Funds rate is the overnight rate of interbank loans, which affects the cost of borrowing across the economy, including interest rates on mortgages, credit cards, and corporate loans. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage rose to 5.98% last week from 5.65% last week, the highest level since 2008, the American Mortgage Bankers Association reported Wednesday. It was the biggest weekly increase in mortgage rates since 2009.</p><p>Powell's testimony didn't directly address the difficult trade-offs the Fed could face next year, especially if the Fed's policy measures cripple the job market but fail to reduce inflation in a compelling way.</p><p>Powell said at a news conference last week that it will be increasingly difficult for the Fed to avoid a recession if energy and commodity prices and supply chain bottlenecks do not ease soon. The Federal Reserve is seeking to achieve what it calls a soft landing by cooling economic growth to a low enough level of inflation without causing a downturn.</p><p>He pointed out that some uncertainties have exacerbated inflationary pressures. Powell's remarks were part of a semi-annual report on monetary policy mandated by Congress.</p><p>This is a particularly delicate time for Fed policy. In the past three meetings, the Fed has accumulated rate hike of 150 basis points (or 1.5 percentage points) in response to annual inflation, which is growing at the fastest rate in more than 40 years.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Powell: The U.S. economy is very strong! The Fed needs to accelerate its rate hike</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPowell: The U.S. economy is very strong! The Fed needs to accelerate its rate hike\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-22 21:33</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Powell said the U.S. economy is very strong and can handle tighter policies; The Fed is firmly committed to bringing inflation back to 2%; It is appropriate to continue the rate hike, and decisions will be taken meeting by meeting. Powell said the latest inflation measures suggest the Fed needs to accelerate its rate hike. On June 22, at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell gave a testimony statement on the semi-annual monetary policy report before the Senate Banking Committee.</p><p>POWELL: Continued rate hike is appropriate. The speed of rate hike depends on future data. The Federal Reserve is firmly committed to returning inflation to 2%. The U.S. economy is very strong and can handle tighter policies. The Fed will continue to communicate its ideas as clearly as possible. Inflation must be reduced to maintain a strong job market. Financial conditions have tightened \"significantly\", reflecting actions taken so far and expected actions.</p><p>Available data for May suggests core inflation is likely to remain at an annualized level of 4.9% in April, or decline slightly. In the face of a rapidly changing economic environment, our policies have been adjusting and will continue to do so. Labor demand is \"very strong,\" while labor supply remains sluggish and labor force participation rates have barely changed since January. The growth of corporate fixed asset investment appears to be slowing, and the housing market appears to be weakening to some extent due to rising mortgage rates. The speed of economic growth depends on future data. The Fed needs to be flexible in reacting to data.</p><p>Powell said recent data showed real GDP rose in the current quarter and consumer spending remained strong; According to the data obtained in May, the annual rate of core inflation is likely to remain at 4.9% or slow slightly. Financial conditions have tightened \"significantly\", reflecting the actions taken so far and the actions expected. In the face of the rapidly changing economic environment, \"our policies have been adjusting and will continue to do so\". Inflation has significantly exceeded expectations, and there may be more surprises in the future. The Fed needs to be flexible in responding to upcoming data and changing prospects.</p><p>POWELL: A cascade of additional rate hike has been priced in by the market, which is appropriate.<span style=\"color:rgba(245,32,16,1);\"><b>Latest inflation measures suggest we need to accelerate the pace of rate hike</b></span><b>。</b>We fully understand the inflation problem and are actively dealing with it. Price stability is the cornerstone of economic development. We have to restore price stability, and we will. The market's feedback on our rate hike is quite good. We will see interest rates continue to rise rapidly. We are firmly committed to bringing down inflation and need to do so to get back to the labor market we all want.</p><p>Powell: The U.S. economy is very competitive, but there are also some industries that are less competitive. We have never used rules on a large scale to make policies in real time. The end of the year will be close to the level required by the Taylor Rule. Note: Taylor's rule is one of the commonly used simple monetary policy rules. It is a short-term interest rate adjustment rule determined by John Taylor of Stanford University in 1993 according to the actual experience of American monetary policy. Taylor believes that to maintain a stable real short-term interest rate and a neutral policy stance, nominal interest rates should be raised (lowered) when the output gap is positive (negative) and the inflation gap exceeds (below) the target value.</p><p>Powell: Price inflation is a macroeconomic issue. There's really nothing the Fed can do about oil prices, and this is not the Fed's judgment on competition in the oil industry.</p><p><b>Related reading</b></p><p><b>Understand the details of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's recent blockbuster testimony in one article</b></p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told members of Congress Wednesday that the central bank is determined to reduce inflation and has the ability to do so. He admitted that the current inflation rate in the United States is too high and needs to be reduced.</p><p>Within the Fed, we understand the difficulties caused by high inflation. We are firmly committed to bringing inflation down, and we are moving quickly, Powell said in a speech to the Senate Banking Committee. We have both the tools we need and the determination we need to restore price stability on behalf of American households and businesses.</p><p>While expressing his determination on inflation, Powell said the economic situation is generally favorable, the job market is strong and demand continues to be high. However, he acknowledged that inflation was too high and needed to be reduced.</p><p>In the coming months, we will look for compelling evidence that inflation is falling, consistent with inflation returning to 2%, Powell said. We expect that the current rate hike will be appropriate; the pace of these changes will continue to depend on new data coming out and the changing economic outlook.</p><p>His comments highlight the challenges facing the Federal Reserve. At present, the Federal Reserve is rate hike at the fastest pace since 1980s to slow economic growth and reduce inflation.</p><p>The Fed's benchmark Federal Funds rate is currently at a historically low level between 1.5% and 1.75%, but remains at levels seen in early 2020, when the pandemic caused Fed officials to cut interest rates to near zero. They kept interest rates near zero until March of this year.</p><p>The latest forecast released by Fed officials last week showed that Federal Funds rate will be raised to at least 3% this year, with most expected to rise to the 3.25%-3.5% range by December. That would be 1 percentage point higher than the highest level in 2018 after the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p>Powell said financial conditions have now tightened significantly as borrowing costs began to rise last fall in anticipation of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year.</p><p>Federal Funds rate is the overnight rate of interbank loans, which affects the cost of borrowing across the economy, including interest rates on mortgages, credit cards, and corporate loans. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage rose to 5.98% last week from 5.65% last week, the highest level since 2008, the American Mortgage Bankers Association reported Wednesday. It was the biggest weekly increase in mortgage rates since 2009.</p><p>Powell's testimony didn't directly address the difficult trade-offs the Fed could face next year, especially if the Fed's policy measures cripple the job market but fail to reduce inflation in a compelling way.</p><p>Powell said at a news conference last week that it will be increasingly difficult for the Fed to avoid a recession if energy and commodity prices and supply chain bottlenecks do not ease soon. The Federal Reserve is seeking to achieve what it calls a soft landing by cooling economic growth to a low enough level of inflation without causing a downturn.</p><p>He pointed out that some uncertainties have exacerbated inflationary pressures. Powell's remarks were part of a semi-annual report on monetary policy mandated by Congress.</p><p>This is a particularly delicate time for Fed policy. In the past three meetings, the Fed has accumulated rate hike of 150 basis points (or 1.5 percentage points) in response to annual inflation, which is growing at the fastest rate in more than 40 years.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/909f0c076f3fff78497a5c9be00e5429","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123729187","content_text":"鲍威尔表示，美国经济非常强劲，能够应对更紧缩的政策；美联储坚定致力于让通胀率回到2%；继续加息是合适的，决定将逐次会议作出。鲍威尔表示，最新的通胀指标表明，美联储需要加快加息步伐。6月22日，美东时间周三上午9点30分，美联储主席鲍威尔在参议院银行委员会上就半年度货币政策报告做证词陈述。鲍威尔：持续加息是适当的。加息的速度取决于未来的数据。美联储坚决承诺将通胀率恢复到2%。美国经济非常强劲，可以应对更紧缩的政策。美联储将继续尽可能清晰地传达其想法。必须降低通胀，才能维持强劲的就业市场。金融状况“显著”收紧，反映了迄今为止采取的行动和预期的行动。5月份的可用数据显示，4月份的核心通货膨胀率可能保持在年化4.9%的水平，或略有下降。面对快速变化的经济环境，我们的政策一直在调整，并将继续这样做。劳动力需求“非常强劲”，而劳动力供应仍然低迷，自1月份以来，劳动力参与率几乎没有变化。企业固定资产投资增长似乎正在放缓，住房市场似乎在一定程度上由于抵押贷款利率上升而走软。经济增长速度取决于未来的数据。美联储需要灵活地对数据做出反应。鲍威尔表示，最近的数据显示实质GDP在当前季度上升，消费者支出保持强劲；5月份所得数据显示，核心通胀年率可能保持在4.9%或略有放缓。金融状况已经“大幅”收紧，反映了到目前为止采取的行动和预期的行动。面对快速变化的经济环境，“我们的政策一直在调整适应，而且将继续如此”。通胀明显地超出预期，未来可能会有更多意外发生，美联储需灵活应对即将公布的数据和不断变化的前景。鲍威尔：一连串额外的加息已被市场消化，这是合适的。最新的通胀指标表明，我们需要加快加息步伐。我们完全理解通胀问题，正在积极应对通胀。价格稳定是经济发展的基石。我们必须恢复价格稳定，而且我们将会做到。市场对我们加息的反馈相当不错。我们将看到利率继续快速上升。我们坚决致力于降低通货膨胀，需要这样做才能回到我们都想要的劳动力市场。鲍威尔：美国经济的竞争力很强，但也有些行业的竞争力较弱。我们从来没有在大范围内使用规则来实时制定政策。年底将接近泰勒规则所要求的水平。注：泰勒规则是常用的简单货币政策规则之一，由斯坦福大学的约翰.泰勒于1993年根据美国货币政策的实际经验而确定的一种短期利率调整的规则。泰勒认为，保持实际短期利率稳定和中性政策立场，当产出缺口为正（负）和通胀缺口超过（低于）目标值时，应提高（降低）名义利率。鲍威尔：价格通胀是一个宏观经济问题。美联储对油价真的无能为力，这不是美联储对石油行业竞争的判断。相关阅读一文读懂美联储主席鲍威尔刚发表重磅证词细节美联储主席鲍威尔星期三对国会议员说，美联储决心降低通货膨胀，并且有能力做到这一点。他承认目前美国通货膨胀率过高，需要降低。「在美联储里面，我们理解高通胀造成的困难。我们坚决致力于降低通胀，我们正在迅速采取行动，」鲍威尔在参议院银行委员会(Senate Banking Committee)发表讲话时表示。「我们既有我们需要的工具，也有代表美国家庭和企业恢复物价稳定所需的决心。」鲍威尔在表达对通货膨胀的决心的同时表示，经济形势总体有利，就业市场强劲，需求持续高企。然而，他承认，通货膨胀率过高，需要降低。鲍威尔说:「在未来几个月里，我们将寻找令人信服的证据，表明通胀正在下降，与通胀回到2%相符。」「我们预计，目前的加息将是适当的;这些变化的速度将继续取决于新出炉的数据和不断变化的经济前景。」他的言论突显了美联储面临的挑战。目前，美联储正以上世纪80年代以来最快的速度加息，以减缓经济增长，降低通胀。美联储的基准联邦基金利率目前在1.5%至1.75%之间，处于历史低位，但仍维持在2020年初的水平，当时疫情导致美联储官员将利率下调至接近于零的水平。他们将利率维持在接近零的水平直到今年3月。美联储官员们上周公布的最新预测显示，今年将把联邦基金利率至少提高到3%，其中大多数预计到12月将升至3.25% - 3.5%的区间。这将比2018年2008年金融危机后的最高水平高出1个百分点。鲍威尔说，由于预期美联储将在今年加息，借款成本从去年秋天开始上升，金融状况「现在已经明显收紧」。联邦基金利率是银行间贷款的隔夜利率，它影响着整个经济的借贷成本，包括抵押贷款、信用卡和企业贷款的利率。美国抵押贷款银行家协会周三公布，上周30年期固定抵押贷款的平均利率从上周的5.65%升至5.98%，为2008年以来的最高水平。这是自2009年以来抵押贷款利率最大的一周涨幅。鲍威尔的证词并没有直接提到美联储明年可能面临的艰难权衡，尤其是如果美联储的政策措施削弱了就业市场，但又没有以令人信服的方式降低通胀。鲍威尔在上周的新闻发布会上说，如果能源和大宗商品价格以及供应链瓶颈问题不能很快缓解，美联储将越来越难以避免经济衰退。美联储正寻求通过给经济增长降温，使其足够低的通胀水平，同时又不会导致经济下滑，从而实现所谓的软着陆。他指出，一些不确定性因素加剧了通胀压力。鲍威尔的讲话是国会授权的货币政策半年度报告的一部分。对于美联储的政策来说，这是一个特别微妙的时刻。在过去的3次会议中，美联储已累计加息150个基点(即1.5个百分点)，以应对正以40多年来最快速度增长的年度通胀。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2664,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9057796109,"gmtCreate":1655563492601,"gmtModify":1676535662419,"author":{"id":"3575347610709013","authorId":"3575347610709013","name":"han妈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575347610709013","authorIdStr":"3575347610709013"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9057796109","repostId":"1130766759","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130766759","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1655260917,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1130766759?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-15 10:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: Due to the US federal holiday Juneteenth, the US stock market will be closed for one day on June 20","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130766759","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"这一节日是美国自1983年的“马丁·路德·金日”以来新增的第一个全国法定节日。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Dear investors,</p><p><b>U.S. stocks will be closed on Monday, June 20</b>, because June 19 (Sunday) is a federal holiday in the United States (Juneteenth). It is worth mentioning that this holiday is quite \"young\" and was legalized only last year. It is the first time in the United States since \"Martin Luther King Day\" in 1983<b>The first new national statutory holiday.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f29a163308823ba7a1941858fd5eec00\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"750\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>I wish you smooth investment</p><p>Tiger Securities</p><p><b>Market closure arrangement</b></p><p><b>US stocks</b></p><p>The market will be closed on June 20 (Monday) and open as usual from June 21 (Tuesday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks, A shares, Singapore stock market, Australian market</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>Background Introduction</b></p><p>On June 17, 2021, U.S. President Biden signed a decree to designate June 19th of each year as a national holiday to commemorate the end of slavery in the United States. The name of the holiday is \"Juneteenth\", which is taken from the combination of June (June) and Nineteenth (Nineteenth). Chinese officials call this festival \"Juneteenth\".</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10ea0fb2e3d74348973bae50742d5fef\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Biden with 'Grandmother Juneteenth' Opal Lee</span></p><p>Perhaps it is precisely because Juneteenth is very \"young\" that at this time last year, the US SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) also had a \"disagreement\" with the US stock market because of this holiday:<b>The SEC is on holiday, while the NYSE and Nasdaq exchanges are open as usual.</b>\"Exchanges discretion the status of operations for federal holidays, and we understand that major markets operate during normal hours,\" the SEC said. The NYSE responded at the time that it would assess whether Juneteenth in 2022 would be closed for the holidays.</p><p>At present, it seems that such \"differences\" will not repeat itself this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a9fb37a410b40a0a3403a1cc8cb8e6d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"768\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: Due to the US federal holiday Juneteenth, the US stock market will be closed for one day on June 20</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: Due to the US federal holiday Juneteenth, the US stock market will be closed for one day on June 20\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-15 10:41</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Dear investors,</p><p><b>U.S. stocks will be closed on Monday, June 20</b>, because June 19 (Sunday) is a federal holiday in the United States (Juneteenth). It is worth mentioning that this holiday is quite \"young\" and was legalized only last year. It is the first time in the United States since \"Martin Luther King Day\" in 1983<b>The first new national statutory holiday.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f29a163308823ba7a1941858fd5eec00\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"750\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>I wish you smooth investment</p><p>Tiger Securities</p><p><b>Market closure arrangement</b></p><p><b>US stocks</b></p><p>The market will be closed on June 20 (Monday) and open as usual from June 21 (Tuesday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks, A shares, Singapore stock market, Australian market</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>Background Introduction</b></p><p>On June 17, 2021, U.S. President Biden signed a decree to designate June 19th of each year as a national holiday to commemorate the end of slavery in the United States. The name of the holiday is \"Juneteenth\", which is taken from the combination of June (June) and Nineteenth (Nineteenth). Chinese officials call this festival \"Juneteenth\".</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10ea0fb2e3d74348973bae50742d5fef\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Biden with 'Grandmother Juneteenth' Opal Lee</span></p><p>Perhaps it is precisely because Juneteenth is very \"young\" that at this time last year, the US SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) also had a \"disagreement\" with the US stock market because of this holiday:<b>The SEC is on holiday, while the NYSE and Nasdaq exchanges are open as usual.</b>\"Exchanges discretion the status of operations for federal holidays, and we understand that major markets operate during normal hours,\" the SEC said. The NYSE responded at the time that it would assess whether Juneteenth in 2022 would be closed for the holidays.</p><p>At present, it seems that such \"differences\" will not repeat itself this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a9fb37a410b40a0a3403a1cc8cb8e6d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"768\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3beebfa3e0137570abe14d50f470080d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130766759","content_text":"尊敬的投资者：美股将于6月20日（星期一）休市，因为6月19日（星期日）是美国的联邦假日（六月节）。值得一提的是，这一节日相当“年轻”，去年才被合法化，是美国自1983年的“马丁·路德·金日”以来新增的第一个全国法定节日。预祝投资顺利老虎证券休市安排美股6月20日（周一）休市，6月21日（周二）起照常开市。港股、A股、新加坡股市、澳大利亚市场照常交易。背景介绍2021年6月17日，美国总统拜登签署法令，将每年的6月19日定为全国法定节假日以纪念美国奴隶制的终结，节日名称为“Juneteenth”，该名称取自June（六月）和Nineteenth（十九）的组合。中国官方称这一节日为“六月节”。拜登与“六月节祖母”Opal Lee或许正是因为六月节非常“年轻”，去年的这个时候，美国SEC（证券交易委员会）还因为这个节日和美股市场产生了“分歧”：SEC放假，而纽交所和纳斯达克交易所却照常开市。SEC表示：“交易所自行决定联邦假期的运营状态，我们对各主要市场在正常时间内运营表示理解。”纽交所当时回应称，将评估2022年的六月节是否停业过节。目前看来这样的“分歧”今年不会重演了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2090,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}