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Hanna0207

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- Hanna0207Hanna0207
  ·11-07
  Is this the culprit trying to sue Qualcomm?
  Arm Gives Tepid Forecast in Sign of Sluggish Chip Demand
  Arm Holdings Plc, the chip designer that went public last year, gave a disappointing sales forecast for the current period, signaling that a still-recovering smartphone market may overshadow growth fr
  Arm Gives Tepid Forecast in Sign of Sluggish Chip Demand
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- Hanna0207Hanna0207
  ·10-28
  Show ur shorts
  AMD: The Overvalued Kingdom Of Challenges
  Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. stock remains a Strong Sell despite a 6% price drop since my last call, with significant reaction expected to Q3 earnings on October 29.AMD's new AI products, including Tu
  AMD: The Overvalued Kingdom Of Challenges
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- Hanna0207Hanna0207
  ·2022-10-12
  Why build a fab in new york
  Will Micron Technology's $100 Billion Splurge Bring the Stock Out of Its Misery?
  The memory chip specialist has announced an ambitious investment plan at a difficult time.
  Will Micron Technology's $100 Billion Splurge Bring the Stock Out of Its Misery?
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- Hanna0207Hanna0207
  ·2022-09-29
  $Netflix(NFLX)$sell
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- Hanna0207Hanna0207
  ·2022-09-24
  $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$boring
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- Hanna0207Hanna0207
  ·2022-09-24
  $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$
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- Hanna0207Hanna0207
  ·2022-09-24
  $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$
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- Hanna0207Hanna0207
  ·2022-09-23
  $Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$
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- Hanna0207Hanna0207
  ·2022-09-23
  $Apple(AAPL)$
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- Hanna0207Hanna0207
  ·2022-09-23
  $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$
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this the culprit trying to sue Qualcomm?","listText":"Is this the culprit trying to sue Qualcomm?","text":"Is this the culprit trying to sue Qualcomm?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/368304809033936","repostId":"1199808306","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1199808306","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1730970765,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1199808306?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-11-07 17:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Arm Gives Tepid Forecast in Sign of Sluggish Chip Demand","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199808306","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Arm Holdings Plc, the chip designer that went public last year, gave a disappointing sales forecast for the current period, signaling that a still-recovering smartphone market may overshadow growth fr","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Arm Holdings Plc, the chip designer that went public last year, gave a disappointing sales forecast for the current period, signaling that a still-recovering smartphone market may overshadow growth from artificial intelligence.</p><p>Revenue will be $920 million to $970 million in the current period, which ends in December, the company said Wednesday. The midpoint of that range would fall short of the $950.9 million that analysts had estimated. Profit will be 32 to 36 cents a share, minus certain items, meeting the consensus prediction of 34 cents on average.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/af6dd8d81beb8d99318fba75630eed3e\" title=\"Arm CEO Rene Haas left the company’s annual forecast unchanged: “We’re not trying to get too far ahead of our skis,” he said.\" tg-width=\"4000\" tg-height=\"2667\"/><span>Arm CEO Rene Haas left the company’s annual forecast unchanged: “We’re not trying to get too far ahead of our skis,” he said.</span></p><p>The shares, which were up 93% this year at the close in New York, fell 4.8% in premarket trading.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/63cf0eb169e86ed0b71e28ec323e2e93\" tg-width=\"816\" tg-height=\"834\"/></p><p>Investors have poured money into the stock since its initial public offering last year, betting that Arm is well placed to benefit from massive spending on AI gear. But the company’s designs and underlying technology are still used more heavily in other parts of the electronics industry, particularly in smartphones, leaving it vulnerable to demand swings in that area.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Revenue in the three months running through September rose about 5% to $844 million. That compares with the $810.9 million analysts had projected. Earnings were 30 cents a share in the fiscal second quarter, excluding some items. Analysts had estimated 26 cents on average, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The Cambridge, UK-based company maintained its annual forecast, predicting sales of $3.8 billion to $4.1 billion. “We’re not trying to get too far ahead of our skis,” Chief Executive Officer Rene Haas said in an interview, referring to the outlook.</p><p>Arm has a unique role in the chip industry: Its designs and standards are fundamental to semiconductors that run most of the world’s smartphones. Under Chief Executive Officer Rene Haas, the company has been trying to extend that reach into the lucrative market for data center components. Arm also is offering more complete chip designs as part of its licensing arrangements, a shift aimed at making it more profitable and less reliant on royalties.</p><p>Arm licenses the fundamental set of instructions that software uses to communicate with chips. It also provides so-called design blocks that companies such as Qualcomm Inc. use to build their products. Arm licensees pay for access to its blueprints in fixed agreements — and then pay royalties based on the variety and amount of chips they ultimately make, use or sell.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Licensing revenue was $330 million last quarter, while royalty revenue was $514 million.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Arm is still roughly 90%-owned by Japan’s SoftBank Group Corp. The IPO in 2023 raised $4.9 billion, marking the biggest debut on a US exchange that year.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Arm Gives Tepid Forecast in Sign of Sluggish Chip Demand</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nArm Gives Tepid Forecast in Sign of Sluggish Chip Demand\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-11-07 17:12 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-06/arm-gives-disappointing-forecast-in-sign-of-sluggish-chip-demand><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Arm Holdings Plc, the chip designer that went public last year, gave a disappointing sales forecast for the current period, signaling that a still-recovering smartphone market may overshadow growth ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-06/arm-gives-disappointing-forecast-in-sign-of-sluggish-chip-demand\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ARM":"ARM Holdings"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-06/arm-gives-disappointing-forecast-in-sign-of-sluggish-chip-demand","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199808306","content_text":"Arm Holdings Plc, the chip designer that went public last year, gave a disappointing sales forecast for the current period, signaling that a still-recovering smartphone market may overshadow growth from artificial intelligence.Revenue will be $920 million to $970 million in the current period, which ends in December, the company said Wednesday. The midpoint of that range would fall short of the $950.9 million that analysts had estimated. Profit will be 32 to 36 cents a share, minus certain items, meeting the consensus prediction of 34 cents on average.Arm CEO Rene Haas left the company’s annual forecast unchanged: “We’re not trying to get too far ahead of our skis,” he said.The shares, which were up 93% this year at the close in New York, fell 4.8% in premarket trading.Investors have poured money into the stock since its initial public offering last year, betting that Arm is well placed to benefit from massive spending on AI gear. But the company’s designs and underlying technology are still used more heavily in other parts of the electronics industry, particularly in smartphones, leaving it vulnerable to demand swings in that area.Revenue in the three months running through September rose about 5% to $844 million. That compares with the $810.9 million analysts had projected. Earnings were 30 cents a share in the fiscal second quarter, excluding some items. Analysts had estimated 26 cents on average, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.The Cambridge, UK-based company maintained its annual forecast, predicting sales of $3.8 billion to $4.1 billion. “We’re not trying to get too far ahead of our skis,” Chief Executive Officer Rene Haas said in an interview, referring to the outlook.Arm has a unique role in the chip industry: Its designs and standards are fundamental to semiconductors that run most of the world’s smartphones. Under Chief Executive Officer Rene Haas, the company has been trying to extend that reach into the lucrative market for data center components. Arm also is offering more complete chip designs as part of its licensing arrangements, a shift aimed at making it more profitable and less reliant on royalties.Arm licenses the fundamental set of instructions that software uses to communicate with chips. It also provides so-called design blocks that companies such as Qualcomm Inc. use to build their products. Arm licensees pay for access to its blueprints in fixed agreements — and then pay royalties based on the variety and amount of chips they ultimately make, use or sell.Licensing revenue was $330 million last quarter, while royalty revenue was $514 million.Arm is still roughly 90%-owned by Japan’s SoftBank Group Corp. The IPO in 2023 raised $4.9 billion, marking the biggest debut on a US exchange that year.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":71,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":364958671527944,"gmtCreate":1730111480608,"gmtModify":1730123056436,"author":{"id":"3576023307997316","authorId":"3576023307997316","name":"Hanna0207","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/14733c304f53aceded0c6f77a8d3913f","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576023307997316","authorIdStr":"3576023307997316"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Show ur shorts","listText":"Show ur shorts","text":"Show ur shorts","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/364958671527944","repostId":"2478925115","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2478925115","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1730081661,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2478925115?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-10-28 10:14","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"AMD: The Overvalued Kingdom Of Challenges","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2478925115","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. stock remains a Strong Sell despite a 6% price drop since my last call, with significant reaction expected to Q3 earnings on October 29.AMD's new AI products, including Tu","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li><p>Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. stock remains a Strong Sell despite a 6% price drop since my last call, with significant reaction expected to Q3 earnings on October 29.</p></li><li><p>AMD&#39;s new AI products, including Turin EPYC CPUs and Instinct MI325x AI accelerator, failed to excite investors, leading to a stock price decline.</p></li><li><p>AMD&#39;s inventory has grown to nearly $5 billion, representing 21% of TTM revenue, a concerning level compared to Nvidia&#39;s 7% ratio.</p></li><li><p>The upcoming earnings release is crucial for AMD investors, especially after the underwhelming response to the recent AI product unveiling.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b0f19dbbd718a9f719e9c6d687f169e8\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span></span></p><p></p><h2>My thesis</h2><p><strong>Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ:AMD) (NEOE:AMD:CA) stock still appears to be a Strong Sell. This is despite the stock becoming cheaper after it declined by 6.5% since I shared my previous analysis. The new earnings release is expected next week, and there are several warning signs indicating that Q3 earnings might disappoint investors.</p><p>According to my discounted cash flow model, the stock is significantly overvalued, and weak earnings could serve as a major negative catalyst for the share price. The inventory problem continues to mount despite positive revenue dynamics over the last few quarters. After AMD recently released various new products, it is highly likely that the existing inventory is now obsolete, forcing the company to sell them at large discounts, which will pressure profitability.</p><h2>AMD stock analysis</h2><p>Today I want to focus on AMD&#39;s upcoming earnings release because growth stocks usually tend to react significantly to beats or misses against consensus. According to the official information from AMD, the company will release its Q3 earnings on October 29, after the close of the market. This is highly likely the biggest event for investors that is left in 2024 because on October 10 the company already made a presentation where it unveiled its new AI chip.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/21050cc00f96b5065446a96aaec4b0c2\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"226\"/><span></span></p><p></p><p>During the event, AMD unveiled new Turin EPYC data center CPUs and an Instinct MI325x AI accelerator. The company also unveiled Ryzen AI PRO 300 Series, the first Microsoft (MSFT) Copilot+ laptops designed for enterprise. Despite the company rolled out various new products with AI exposure, it appears that investors were not excited much. The stock price dropped notably after the event, even despite the S&amp;P 500 (SP500) demonstrated positive dynamic over the same period.</p><p>Since my previous analysis was published before the Q2 earnings release, I want to refer to one of the fundamental issues related to the latest quarterly financial report. In my previous thesis, I emphasized that AMD&#39;s inventory grew significantly over the last couple of years. As we see below, the problem became even larger during the previous reportable quarter as inventory grew to almost $5 billion. This is around 21% of AMD&#39;s TTM revenue, which is a substantial level. For example, NVIDIA&#39;s (NVDA) inventory was $6.7 billion as of the latest reporting date. This is higher compared to AMD in absolute terms, but Nvidia&#39;s TTM revenue is $96 billion, meaning that the inventory to TTM revenue ratio is around 7%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4ff48e9308dcc9c082b9d4d526dd1c65\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"424\"/><span></span></p><p></p><p>A high inventory level presents a significant fundamental issue for the company, as nearly $5 billion of its assets are tied up in inventories. These inventories appear to be slow-moving, given that their balance continues to grow, even despite AMD&#39;s revenue returning to the growth path during recent quarters. This high inventory level is likely to be a long-lasting headwind for profitability because the outstanding balance is not much lower compared to quarterly sales over several past quarters.</p><p>Additionally, we should not forget that AMD consistently rolls out new, upgraded versions of its products. With that being said, the inventory will highly likely sell off slowly and potentially at a large discount, as demand for older versions diminishes notably once new versions appear.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c84efb136c7615d38aafaeaf533c1b4f\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"505\"/><span></span></p><p></p><p>According to quarterly consensus estimates, analysts expect a 31% YoY adjusted EPS growth. This is notably ahead of the expected 16% YoY revenue growth. Furthermore, for the quarters beyond fiscal Q3 2024, analysts project a substantial acceleration in EPS growth. However, given the significant inventory issue, these EPS growth forecasts might be overly optimistic. Therefore, there is a considerable risk of AMD missing Q3 EPS consensus estimates and potentially downgrading its outlook.</p><p>As I mentioned in my previous AMD coverage, growth in Data Center revenue was the only strong revenue growth driver over the last few quarters. However, in this market, AMD competes with Nvidia. Due to its smaller scale and much weaker financial position compared to Nvidia, it is very difficult for AMD to compete in data centers. Nvidia&#39;s hottest offering for data centers is its new Blackwell GPU. According to the management, the supply of Blackwell is already sold out for the next 12 months. Furthermore, analysts from Morgan Stanley (MS) believe that Nvidia is likely to expand its market share in AI processors in 2025. Since AMD is the second-largest player in the market, it is highly likely that Nvidia&#39;s potential 2025 market share expansion will happen at AMD&#39;s expense.</p><p>Due to all these factors, I am quite pessimistic about AMD&#39;s upcoming Q3 earnings release. Inventory is a strong headwind for profitability, and fierce competition from Nvidia&#39;s Blackwell means that AMD&#39;s management is unlikely to boost its AI revenue projections for 2025.</p><h2>Intrinsic value calculation</h2><p>AMD leverage ratio is low, meaning that using cost of equity is a fair choice to be used as a discount rate for my discounted cash flow (DCF) model. The below working demonstrates why the discount rate is 12.02%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b8fbc491480a907a6e73fe9126ab12c6\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"111\"/><span></span></p><p></p><p>According to consensus, the revenue CAGR for years 1-5 is around 18%. This is an aggressive assumption, but using an optimistic forecast as the first scenario looks reasonable to balance out my bearish stance. Therefore, the perpetual growth rate is also aggressive at 5%. The levered TTM FCF margin is 9.1%. This is my year 1 FCF assumption, with expected growth of the metric by 100 bps annually. I use levered FCF margin because cost of equity is the discount rate.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e388df28359da3702848f5e30a30754a\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"403\"/><span></span></p><p></p><p>AMD&#39;s intrinsic value per share is $69. This target price is significantly lower compared to the current share price of $153.44. The valuation is very generous because only a 9% perpetual growth rate more or less justifies the current share price.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/10f6774d0298b36d767059d96a6737a8\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\"/><span></span></p><p></p><h2>What can go wrong with my thesis?</h2><p>While I do not see opportunities for AMD to compete with Nvidia in AI processors, the company has successfully played its &#39;David versus Goliath&#39; role in the past against Intel (INTC). Less than ten years ago, there was a massive gap between Intel&#39;s and AMD&#39;s market shares in x86 computer CPUs. According to Statista, AMD has significantly narrowed this gap recently, and Intel&#39;s position no longer appears unassailable. Therefore, AMD&#39;s management has experience in successfully competing with larger competitors.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dc2ff8c1baf81adee613b53f6b3b12b2\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\"/><span></span></p><p></p><p>Despite I am pessimistic about AMD&#39;s ability to beat consensus EPS estimates, its recent earnings surprise history is quite strong. According to Seeking Alpha&#39;s chart, there has been only one negative EPS surprise over the last sixteen quarters, which is a strong track record suggesting that I might be underestimating the company&#39;s ability to deliver positive surprises.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ef723414a969180069a956b673d9e266\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"245\"/><span></span></p><p></p><h2>Summary</h2><p>I am quite pessimistic about AMD&#39;s approaching earnings release due to a few (but big) warning signs. In addition, the stock appears significantly overvalued.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD: The Overvalued Kingdom Of Challenges</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD: The Overvalued Kingdom Of Challenges\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-28 10:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4729668-amd-the-overvalued-kingdom-of-challenges><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. stock remains a Strong Sell despite a 6% price drop since my last call, with significant reaction expected to Q3 earnings on October 29.AMD's new AI products, including ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4729668-amd-the-overvalued-kingdom-of-challenges\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0889565833.HKD":"FRANKLIN TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2360106780.USD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU0823421333.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) ACC","AMD":"美国超微公司","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU1803068979.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Technology A (acc) SGD-H1","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","LU0823421416.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) INC","LU1242518857.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","LU1989764664.SGD":"CPR Invest - Global Disruptive Opportunities A2 Acc SGD-H","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","BK4141":"半导体产品","LU0081259029.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - TECH OPPORTUNITY \"P\" (USD) ACC","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","BK4573":"虚拟现实","LU2264538146.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","LU1242518931.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Asia Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","BK4512":"苹果概念","LU0979878070.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","BK4529":"IDC概念","LU0823434583.USD":"BNP PARIBAS US GROWTH \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU1064131342.USD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc USD","LU1951198990.SGD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund H-R/A SGD-H","LU0823434740.USD":"BNP PARIBAS US GROWTH \"C\" (USD) INC","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1951200564.SGD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund R/A SGD","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","IE00B5949003.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU1316542783.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD","LU1303367103.USD":"摩根大通多经理另类基金 A (acc)","LU1923623000.USD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund R/A USD","LU2098885051.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Multi-Manager Alternatives A (acc) SGD","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU2458330169.SGD":"FRANKLIN SHARIAH TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU1880398471.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS GLOBAL EQUITY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU1880398554.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS GLOBAL EQUITY \"A2\" (USD) INC","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU2250418816.HKD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4566":"资本集团","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU2458330243.SGD":"FRANKLIN SHARIAH TECHNOLOGY \"A-H1\" (SGDHDG) ACC"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4729668-amd-the-overvalued-kingdom-of-challenges","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2478925115","content_text":"Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. stock remains a Strong Sell despite a 6% price drop since my last call, with significant reaction expected to Q3 earnings on October 29.AMD's new AI products, including Turin EPYC CPUs and Instinct MI325x AI accelerator, failed to excite investors, leading to a stock price decline.AMD's inventory has grown to nearly $5 billion, representing 21% of TTM revenue, a concerning level compared to Nvidia's 7% ratio.The upcoming earnings release is crucial for AMD investors, especially after the underwhelming response to the recent AI product unveiling.My thesisAdvanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) (NEOE:AMD:CA) stock still appears to be a Strong Sell. This is despite the stock becoming cheaper after it declined by 6.5% since I shared my previous analysis. The new earnings release is expected next week, and there are several warning signs indicating that Q3 earnings might disappoint investors.According to my discounted cash flow model, the stock is significantly overvalued, and weak earnings could serve as a major negative catalyst for the share price. The inventory problem continues to mount despite positive revenue dynamics over the last few quarters. After AMD recently released various new products, it is highly likely that the existing inventory is now obsolete, forcing the company to sell them at large discounts, which will pressure profitability.AMD stock analysisToday I want to focus on AMD's upcoming earnings release because growth stocks usually tend to react significantly to beats or misses against consensus. According to the official information from AMD, the company will release its Q3 earnings on October 29, after the close of the market. This is highly likely the biggest event for investors that is left in 2024 because on October 10 the company already made a presentation where it unveiled its new AI chip.During the event, AMD unveiled new Turin EPYC data center CPUs and an Instinct MI325x AI accelerator. The company also unveiled Ryzen AI PRO 300 Series, the first Microsoft (MSFT) Copilot+ laptops designed for enterprise. Despite the company rolled out various new products with AI exposure, it appears that investors were not excited much. The stock price dropped notably after the event, even despite the S&P 500 (SP500) demonstrated positive dynamic over the same period.Since my previous analysis was published before the Q2 earnings release, I want to refer to one of the fundamental issues related to the latest quarterly financial report. In my previous thesis, I emphasized that AMD's inventory grew significantly over the last couple of years. As we see below, the problem became even larger during the previous reportable quarter as inventory grew to almost $5 billion. This is around 21% of AMD's TTM revenue, which is a substantial level. For example, NVIDIA's (NVDA) inventory was $6.7 billion as of the latest reporting date. This is higher compared to AMD in absolute terms, but Nvidia's TTM revenue is $96 billion, meaning that the inventory to TTM revenue ratio is around 7%.A high inventory level presents a significant fundamental issue for the company, as nearly $5 billion of its assets are tied up in inventories. These inventories appear to be slow-moving, given that their balance continues to grow, even despite AMD's revenue returning to the growth path during recent quarters. This high inventory level is likely to be a long-lasting headwind for profitability because the outstanding balance is not much lower compared to quarterly sales over several past quarters.Additionally, we should not forget that AMD consistently rolls out new, upgraded versions of its products. With that being said, the inventory will highly likely sell off slowly and potentially at a large discount, as demand for older versions diminishes notably once new versions appear.According to quarterly consensus estimates, analysts expect a 31% YoY adjusted EPS growth. This is notably ahead of the expected 16% YoY revenue growth. Furthermore, for the quarters beyond fiscal Q3 2024, analysts project a substantial acceleration in EPS growth. However, given the significant inventory issue, these EPS growth forecasts might be overly optimistic. Therefore, there is a considerable risk of AMD missing Q3 EPS consensus estimates and potentially downgrading its outlook.As I mentioned in my previous AMD coverage, growth in Data Center revenue was the only strong revenue growth driver over the last few quarters. However, in this market, AMD competes with Nvidia. Due to its smaller scale and much weaker financial position compared to Nvidia, it is very difficult for AMD to compete in data centers. Nvidia's hottest offering for data centers is its new Blackwell GPU. According to the management, the supply of Blackwell is already sold out for the next 12 months. Furthermore, analysts from Morgan Stanley (MS) believe that Nvidia is likely to expand its market share in AI processors in 2025. Since AMD is the second-largest player in the market, it is highly likely that Nvidia's potential 2025 market share expansion will happen at AMD's expense.Due to all these factors, I am quite pessimistic about AMD's upcoming Q3 earnings release. Inventory is a strong headwind for profitability, and fierce competition from Nvidia's Blackwell means that AMD's management is unlikely to boost its AI revenue projections for 2025.Intrinsic value calculationAMD leverage ratio is low, meaning that using cost of equity is a fair choice to be used as a discount rate for my discounted cash flow (DCF) model. The below working demonstrates why the discount rate is 12.02%.According to consensus, the revenue CAGR for years 1-5 is around 18%. This is an aggressive assumption, but using an optimistic forecast as the first scenario looks reasonable to balance out my bearish stance. Therefore, the perpetual growth rate is also aggressive at 5%. The levered TTM FCF margin is 9.1%. This is my year 1 FCF assumption, with expected growth of the metric by 100 bps annually. I use levered FCF margin because cost of equity is the discount rate.AMD's intrinsic value per share is $69. This target price is significantly lower compared to the current share price of $153.44. The valuation is very generous because only a 9% perpetual growth rate more or less justifies the current share price.What can go wrong with my thesis?While I do not see opportunities for AMD to compete with Nvidia in AI processors, the company has successfully played its 'David versus Goliath' role in the past against Intel (INTC). Less than ten years ago, there was a massive gap between Intel's and AMD's market shares in x86 computer CPUs. According to Statista, AMD has significantly narrowed this gap recently, and Intel's position no longer appears unassailable. Therefore, AMD's management has experience in successfully competing with larger competitors.Despite I am pessimistic about AMD's ability to beat consensus EPS estimates, its recent earnings surprise history is quite strong. According to Seeking Alpha's chart, there has been only one negative EPS surprise over the last sixteen quarters, which is a strong track record suggesting that I might be underestimating the company's ability to deliver positive surprises.SummaryI am quite pessimistic about AMD's approaching earnings release due to a few (but big) warning signs. In addition, the stock appears significantly overvalued.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":43,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9917449539,"gmtCreate":1665574300821,"gmtModify":1676537629764,"author":{"id":"3576023307997316","authorId":"3576023307997316","name":"Hanna0207","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/14733c304f53aceded0c6f77a8d3913f","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576023307997316","authorIdStr":"3576023307997316"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Why build a fab in new&nbsp;york","listText":"Why build a fab in new&nbsp;york","text":"Why build a fab in new york","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9917449539","repostId":"2274142630","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2274142630","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1665572954,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2274142630?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-12 19:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will Micron Technology's $100 Billion Splurge Bring the Stock Out of Its Misery?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2274142630","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The memory chip specialist has announced an ambitious investment plan at a difficult time.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Micron Technology</b> is coming off a terrible quarter. The company&#39;s revenue and earnings fell significantly thanks to the declining prices of memory chips stemming from an oversupply in the industry.</p><p>The company&#39;s guidance indicates that things are about to get worse because memory prices are expected to fall further, which could eat into the chipmaker&#39;s massive pile of cash. That&#39;s the reason why Micron has decided to lower its capital spending by over 30% in the new fiscal year. But shortly after, the company announced a massive investment of up to $100 billion in central New York.</p><p>The chipmaker plans to spend this money over a 20-year period to construct a massive fabrication plant. Micron says that the first phase of this investment -- worth $20 billion -- could be completed by 2030. Construction of the site is expected to begin in 2024 and production from the new plant should start ramping up in the second half of the decade.</p><p>Investors, however, may be wondering why Micron made such an announcement at a time when the weak demand for memory chips and oversupply has crushed prices and wrecked the company&#39;s top and bottom lines. We&#39;ll have to look at the memory market&#39;s long-term prospects to find the answer to that question.</p><h2>Micron Technology is playing the long game</h2><p>The decline in sales of personal computers and smartphones has weighed heavily on the memory market this year. This was evident from Micron&#39;s fiscal 2022 fourth-quarter results (for the three months that ended on Sept. 1, 2022). The company&#39;s revenue fell 20% year over year to $6.6 billion, while adjusted operating income as a percentage of sales was down to 25% from 37.1% in the year-ago period.</p><p>Micron&#39;s forecast for an adjusted gross margin of 26% in the current quarter points toward more pain, as it would be a massive decline from the prior-year period&#39;s non-GAAP gross margin of 47%. Things are unlikely to improve in 2023 because the oversupply conditions in the memory market are expected to persist next year due to tepid demand growth.</p><p>Still, Micron management seems focused on the bigger picture in the memory market. From the growing deployment of dynamic random access memory in smartphones to an increase in memory content in vehicles to a jump in artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) workloads in data centers, there are several reasons why memory demand is expected to shoot higher in the long run.</p><p>At its 2022 investor day, Micron pointed out that the amount of dynamic random access memory (DRAM) shipped in data centers will double by 2025 compared to last year. NAND flash storage, meanwhile, is expected to triple over the same period. Even better, Micron anticipates the data center memory market (including both DRAM and NAND flash) to sustain its impressive momentum through 2030, generating close to $180 billion in revenue versus around $60 billion last year.</p><p>Meanwhile, nascent markets such as high-bandwidth memory are also expected to take off, generating $13 billion in revenue by 2030 compared to $1 billion last year. On the other hand, Micron anticipates an increase of 30 times in DRAM content and a 100x increase in NAND flash content in vehicles as the level of autonomous driving adoption increases. This explains why the market for automotive memory is expected to generate $17.2 billion in annual revenue in 2028 versus $3.5 billion last year.</p><p>As such, it is not surprising to see why Micron is setting itself up for long-term success with an aggressive investment plan that could help it thrive in the long run.</p><h2>Investors need to be patient</h2><p>Micron&#39;s $100 billion investment is going to be spread out over a long period, so the company won&#39;t be reaping any immediate benefits. On top of that, the stock is likely to remain under pressure in the near term thanks to the persistent weakness in the memory market. That&#39;s why buying Micron Technology shares may not look like a good idea right now, even though they are trading at just seven times trailing earnings.</p><p>The forward earnings multiple of 13 shows that the company&#39;s earnings are set to decline this fiscal year versus its fiscal 2022 earnings of $8.35 per share. However, things are expected to improve from fiscal 2024.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd25437afbb40531358fe5250d5f1add\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>MU EPS Estimates for Current Fiscal Year data by YCharts</p><p>And as the long-term outlook indicates, Micron could clock an impressive pace of growth beyond the next couple of years as well thanks to the secular growth in the memory market. All this tells us why investors should look for signs of a turnaround in Micron&#39;s fortunes and start buying this semiconductor stock once the memory market begins recovering.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will Micron Technology's $100 Billion Splurge Bring the Stock Out of Its Misery?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill Micron Technology's $100 Billion Splurge Bring the Stock Out of Its Misery?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-12 19:09 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/12/will-micron-technology-100-billion-splurge-help/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Micron Technology is coming off a terrible quarter. The company's revenue and earnings fell significantly thanks to the declining prices of memory chips stemming from an oversupply in the industry.The...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/12/will-micron-technology-100-billion-splurge-help/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/12/will-micron-technology-100-billion-splurge-help/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2274142630","content_text":"Micron Technology is coming off a terrible quarter. The company's revenue and earnings fell significantly thanks to the declining prices of memory chips stemming from an oversupply in the industry.The company's guidance indicates that things are about to get worse because memory prices are expected to fall further, which could eat into the chipmaker's massive pile of cash. That's the reason why Micron has decided to lower its capital spending by over 30% in the new fiscal year. But shortly after, the company announced a massive investment of up to $100 billion in central New York.The chipmaker plans to spend this money over a 20-year period to construct a massive fabrication plant. Micron says that the first phase of this investment -- worth $20 billion -- could be completed by 2030. Construction of the site is expected to begin in 2024 and production from the new plant should start ramping up in the second half of the decade.Investors, however, may be wondering why Micron made such an announcement at a time when the weak demand for memory chips and oversupply has crushed prices and wrecked the company's top and bottom lines. We'll have to look at the memory market's long-term prospects to find the answer to that question.Micron Technology is playing the long gameThe decline in sales of personal computers and smartphones has weighed heavily on the memory market this year. This was evident from Micron's fiscal 2022 fourth-quarter results (for the three months that ended on Sept. 1, 2022). The company's revenue fell 20% year over year to $6.6 billion, while adjusted operating income as a percentage of sales was down to 25% from 37.1% in the year-ago period.Micron's forecast for an adjusted gross margin of 26% in the current quarter points toward more pain, as it would be a massive decline from the prior-year period's non-GAAP gross margin of 47%. Things are unlikely to improve in 2023 because the oversupply conditions in the memory market are expected to persist next year due to tepid demand growth.Still, Micron management seems focused on the bigger picture in the memory market. From the growing deployment of dynamic random access memory in smartphones to an increase in memory content in vehicles to a jump in artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) workloads in data centers, there are several reasons why memory demand is expected to shoot higher in the long run.At its 2022 investor day, Micron pointed out that the amount of dynamic random access memory (DRAM) shipped in data centers will double by 2025 compared to last year. NAND flash storage, meanwhile, is expected to triple over the same period. Even better, Micron anticipates the data center memory market (including both DRAM and NAND flash) to sustain its impressive momentum through 2030, generating close to $180 billion in revenue versus around $60 billion last year.Meanwhile, nascent markets such as high-bandwidth memory are also expected to take off, generating $13 billion in revenue by 2030 compared to $1 billion last year. On the other hand, Micron anticipates an increase of 30 times in DRAM content and a 100x increase in NAND flash content in vehicles as the level of autonomous driving adoption increases. This explains why the market for automotive memory is expected to generate $17.2 billion in annual revenue in 2028 versus $3.5 billion last year.As such, it is not surprising to see why Micron is setting itself up for long-term success with an aggressive investment plan that could help it thrive in the long run.Investors need to be patientMicron's $100 billion investment is going to be spread out over a long period, so the company won't be reaping any immediate benefits. On top of that, the stock is likely to remain under pressure in the near term thanks to the persistent weakness in the memory market. That's why buying Micron Technology shares may not look like a good idea right now, even though they are trading at just seven times trailing earnings.The forward earnings multiple of 13 shows that the company's earnings are set to decline this fiscal year versus its fiscal 2022 earnings of $8.35 per share. However, things are expected to improve from fiscal 2024.MU EPS Estimates for Current Fiscal Year data by YChartsAnd as the long-term outlook indicates, Micron could clock an impressive pace of growth beyond the next couple of years as well thanks to the secular growth in the memory market. All this tells us why investors should look for signs of a turnaround in Micron's fortunes and start buying this semiconductor stock once the memory market begins recovering.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":401,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9918725246,"gmtCreate":1664460559685,"gmtModify":1676537459667,"author":{"id":"3576023307997316","authorId":"3576023307997316","name":"Hanna0207","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/14733c304f53aceded0c6f77a8d3913f","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576023307997316","authorIdStr":"3576023307997316"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NFLX\">$Netflix(NFLX)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>sell&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NFLX\">$Netflix(NFLX)$</a><v-v 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