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TradeXedarT

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- TradeXedarTTradeXedarT
  ·11-16
  Share your opinion about this news…
  How Large Can Nvidia Realistically Grow
  SummaryNvidia Corporation's AI-driven growth has been exceptional, with data centers now comprising 88% of revenue, leading to a 38% stock increase since my last upgrade.Nvidia's market cap is $3.6T,
  How Large Can Nvidia Realistically Grow
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- TradeXedarTTradeXedarT
  ·2022-10-18
  $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$
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- TradeXedarTTradeXedarT
  ·2022-10-14
  $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$
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- TradeXedarTTradeXedarT
  ·2022-10-03
  $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$
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- TradeXedarTTradeXedarT
  ·2022-07-21
  Power la
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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- TradeXedarTTradeXedarT
  ·2022-07-21
  Go go go
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- TradeXedarTTradeXedarT
  ·2022-07-21
  Nice
  Tesla (TSLA) Sold 75% of its Bitcoin Worth $936 Million
  According to the Q2 quarterly update, Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has converted approximately 75% of its Bi
  Tesla (TSLA) Sold 75% of its Bitcoin Worth $936 Million
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- TradeXedarTTradeXedarT
  ·2022-07-18
  [Smile] [Happy]
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- TradeXedarTTradeXedarT
  ·2022-07-15
  [Cool]
  Elon Musk: Tesla Can Lower Prices 'if Inflation Calms Down'
  By Will Feuer Tesla Inc. can lower prices for its cars "if inflation calms down," Chief Exe
  Elon Musk: Tesla Can Lower Prices 'if Inflation Calms Down'
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- TradeXedarTTradeXedarT
  ·2022-07-11
  Ok
  Tesla: The Last Bubble Standing
  SummaryAs the market crumbles around it, the enthusiasm for Tesla is unwavering. With a 1% earnings
  Tesla: The Last Bubble Standing
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your opinion about this news…","listText":"Share your opinion about this news…","text":"Share your opinion about this news…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/371636580577400","repostId":"1162498604","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1162498604","pubTimestamp":1731721233,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1162498604?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-11-16 09:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Large Can Nvidia Realistically Grow","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162498604","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryNvidia Corporation's AI-driven growth has been exceptional, with data centers now comprising 88% of revenue, leading to a 38% stock increase since my last upgrade.Nvidia's market cap is $3.6T, ","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2><strong>Summary</strong></h2><ul><li><p>Nvidia Corporation&#39;s AI-driven growth has been exceptional, with data centers now comprising 88% of revenue, leading to a 38% stock increase since my last upgrade.</p></li><li><p>Nvidia&#39;s market cap is $3.6T, with a Blended P/E of 58.5x; future growth depends on maintaining its competitive edge in AI and data centers.</p></li><li><p>I project Nvidia&#39;s revenue to grow at a 24% CAGR until 2029, potentially reaching a market cap of $5.69T to $6.32T, offering attractive returns.</p></li><li><p>Nvidia&#39;s future opportunities include AI, gaming, automotive, and industrial applications, with innovations like the Blackwell GPU architecture driving growth.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img alt=\"Nvidia headquarters in Santa Clara, California, USA\" src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f8271f5218e30171f478337709702edd\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span></span></p><p></p><p><strong>JHVEPhoto</strong></p><p></p><p>I last wrote coverage about <strong>NVIDIA</strong> <strong>Corporation</strong> (<span>NASDAQ:</span><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\" href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NVDA#hasComeFromMpArticle=false#source=section%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link\" title=\"NVIDIA Corporation\"><span>NVDA</span></a>) back in September, upgrading the stock to a buy in the <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\" href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4719953-nvidias-stock-is-a-gift-at-105-rating-upgrade#hasComeFromMpArticle=false#source=section%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link\" title=\"\">article</a> “<em>Nvidia&#39;s Stock Is A Gift At $105.</em>” My upgrade followed the broader market<span> weakness in late summer, particularly in the high-flying semis. Despite the downturn, which seemed like a healthy correction, mega-cap companies are not yet showing signs of exhaustion, and their CAPEX spending continues to balloon to record levels, fueling Nvidia&#39;s growth. At the same time, Nvidia&#39;s data center market share remains relatively stable despite increased competition, and the gross margins are continuously healthy, above 75%.</span></p><p>Since my rating upgrade, the stock <span>has been up 38%, compared to a roughly 9% gain in the broader market (</span><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\" href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SP500#hasComeFromMpArticle=false#source=section%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link\" title=\"\"><span>SP500</span></a><span>), proving my call was accurate. However, I won&#39;t be patting myself on the shoulder just yet, as in the bull market,</span> buying quality almost always means positive returns.</p><p>Below, you can see my previous Nvidia calls and the performance that followed:</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\" href=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/15/48899823-17316678764572036_origin.png\" title=\"\"><img alt=\"Previous Coverage\" src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/538d1a14a6c8d2ebb6085e632e9c44b5\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"554\"/></a><span></span></p><p><strong>Previous Coverage </strong><span><strong>(Seeking Alpha)</strong></span></p><p></p><p>Now, Nvidia is valued at $3.6T, making it the most valuable company of them all. It trades at a Blended P/E of 58.5x. The fair question to ask ourselves is how large Nvidia can realistically grow, and whether it still presents a good investment opportunity.</p><p>I previously purchased shares of Nvidia myself at around $400/share pre-split, and now I am sitting on major gains.</p><h2><strong>Nvidia&#39;s Previous Growth</strong></h2><p>Before looking into the future, let&#39;s first look at Nvidia&#39;s success in the past few years and what has fueled its growth.</p><p>The adoption of AI has been Nvidia&#39;s primary growth driver, as the company&#39;s innovation has led to being at the right time, at the right place, with the right product. The GPUs using the Hopper Infrastructure, such as the A100 and H100 series, were so far the backbone of AI training and inference, powering generative AI models, such as the widely used ChatGPT, Perplexity, Copilot, etc. The AI “revolution,” a term tossed around a lot, has led to increased demand for Nvidia&#39;s products for cloud computing and enterprise applications without signs of exhaustion, particularly as Nvidia is starting to sell new, more advanced Blackwell architecture.</p><p>That&#39;s mainly why Nvidia&#39;s data center segment <span>has experienced exponential growth. It is fueled by the “so-called” cloud hyperscalers such as <strong>Microsoft Corporation</strong> (</span><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\" href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MSFT#hasComeFromMpArticle=false#source=section%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link\" title=\"Microsoft Corporation\"><span>MSFT</span></a><span>) with Azure, <strong>Alphabet Inc. </strong>(</span><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\" href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GOOG#hasComeFromMpArticle=false#source=section%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link\" title=\"Alphabet Inc.\"><span>GOOG</span></a><span>), (</span><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\" href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GOOGL#hasComeFromMpArticle=false#source=section%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link\" title=\"Alphabet Inc.\"><span>GOOGL</span></a><span>) with Cloud, and<strong> Amazon.com, Inc.</strong> (</span><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\" href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AMZN#hasComeFromMpArticle=false#source=section%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link\" title=\"Amazon.com, Inc.\"><span>AMZN</span></a><span>) with AWS, as the CAPEX spend ballooned in the race for the </span>most advanced AI infrastructure.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img alt=\"CAPEX Spending\" src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dbfc43252fc36f9c7bb4da2ab167a6fa\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1055\"/><span></span></p><p><strong>CAPEX Spending </strong><span><strong>(Sherwood)</strong></span></p><p></p><p>But that wasn&#39;t always the case. Previously, Nvidia&#39;s business has centered around GPUs powering gaming. Still, this narrative is long gone, with the business innovating and ultimately reinventing itself to become the fundamental brick in the new computing era. Data centers now make up around 88% of its total revenue, compared to less than 50% just 2 years ago.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\" href=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/15/saupload_87541ba43b848974db24c71459813a34.png\" title=\"\"><img alt=\"Nvidia Revenue Breakdown\" src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/98cc9eccd312b3ef53618f803e5a7cef\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"718\"/></a><span></span></p><p><strong>Nvidia Revenue Breakdown </strong><span><strong>(App Economy Insights)</strong></span></p><p></p><p>The graphs above very well depict Nvidia&#39;s stellar growth quarter over quarter, but let&#39;s look at annual revenue growth:</p><ul><li><p><strong>FY22:</strong> $26.91B, YoY 61% growth.</p></li><li><p><strong>FY23:</strong> $26.97B, YoY 0% growth.</p></li><li><p><strong>FY24:</strong> $60.92B, YoY 226% growth.</p></li><li><p><strong>FY25:</strong> (Actual YTD $56.08B + Estimate YTG $69.51B) = $125.59B, YoY 206% growth.</p></li></ul><p>These are stellar growth numbers and perhaps the most significant success story I have seen during my investment career. Nonetheless, the law of large numbers is clear: the larger the company gets, the more difficult it becomes to grow its top line, and moving forward, it will become increasingly difficult for Nvidia to grow at such unprecedented rates.</p><h2><strong>Nvidia&#39;s Future Opportunity</strong></h2><p>Nvidia&#39;s AI GPU first-mover advantage has given the company a competitive advantage in establishing its market share before any other company could, with <strong>Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.</strong> (<a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\" href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AMD#hasComeFromMpArticle=false#source=section%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link\" title=\"Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.\">AMD</a>) and <strong>Intel Corporation</strong> (<a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\" href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/INTC#hasComeFromMpArticle=false#source=section%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link\" title=\"Intel Corporation\">INTC</a>) now playing catch-up.</p><p><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\" href=\"https://wccftech.com/nvidia-dominated-aib-gpu-market-q1-2024-88-percent-market-share-amd-12-intelt-0/#:~:text=Overall%20Q1%20AIB%20GPU%20Shipments,%25%2C%20AMD%20%26%20Intel%20Nowhere%20Close\" title=\"\">According to TechSpot</a>, Nvidia&#39;s GPU market share was 88% in Q1 2024, an increase from 80% in the prior year. That&#39;s particularly important because we see the competition intensify, both from other semi-companies and the already mentioned cloud hyperscalers. They are developing their in-house chips to address their custom needs, but so far, Nvidia&#39;s position remains unchallenged, perhaps due to their engineering superiority. However, as time passes and the generational leaps in technology become less pronounced, I expect Nvidia&#39;s market share to fall, and its gross margin will eventually decline.</p><p>Let&#39;s now look at how large the AI chip market is and how fast it&#39;s expected to grow.</p><p>If we assume Nvidia&#39;s trailing twelve-month data center revenue of $81.75B and their market share of 88%, we can conclude that the current overall market size is around $92.9B.</p><p>If we look at the forecast from MarketsandMarkets, <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\" href=\"https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/PressReleases/ai-chipset.asp\" title=\"\">they are estimating</a> the market size to reach $311B by 2029, which would represent a 19% CAGR from today.</p><p>However, for instance, <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\" href=\"https://www.asiafinancial.com/chipmaker-amd-forecasts-400bn-data-centre-ai-chip-market#:~:text=Chipmaker%20AMD%20says%20it%20expects,of%20AI%20chips%20on%20Wednesday.\" title=\"\">AMD is expecting</a> the market to grow to as large as $400B by the end of 2027, which would be a 34% CAGR, which is quite optimistic, in my opinion.</p><p>Nonetheless, this shows us that the market size forecasts are all over the place. However, Nvidia is still positioned as the key beneficiary in capturing a significant portion of this opportunity.</p><p>If we assume Nvidia&#39;s data center revenue grows in line with the market, Nvidia&#39;s data center revenue could reach anywhere between $138B — $197B by the end of 2027 and $195B by the end of 2029, depending on the growth estimate we use in our calculation, as per below, if we assume no market share loss over the following years:</p><table><colgroup><col/><col/><col/><col/><col/><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span><strong>Data Center Revenue Growth</strong></span></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span><strong>2024</strong></span></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span><strong>2025</strong></span></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span><strong>2026</strong></span></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span><strong>2027</strong></span></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span><strong>2028</strong></span></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span><strong>2029</strong></span></p></td></tr><tr><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span><strong>19% CAGR (MarketsandMarkets)</strong></span></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span>$82</span></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span>$97</span></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span>$116</span></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span>$138</span></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span>$164</span></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span>$195</span></p></td></tr><tr><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span><strong>34% CAGR (AMD)</strong></span></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span>$82</span></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span>$110</span></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span>$147</span></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span>$197</span></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Several market trends and innovations, such as the new Blackwell GPU Architecture, should unlock this growth for Nvidia. Production is on track to ramp up in H2 2024, and sales will follow suit as soon as Q1 2025. This new architecture promises 25x more cost-effective and energy-efficient GPUs for training LLM, with energy being one of the main hurdles for AI data centers.</p><p>Following the successful implementation of generative AI into services such as ChatGPT, Microsoft&#39;s Copilot, and cloud-based offerings, governments around the world are expected to start investing in AI systems tailored to their custom needs. This untapped opportunity could become a significant revenue stream in the future.</p><p>But that&#39;s not all. We should not forget other Nvidia business segments, which are poised to contribute meaningfully to revenue growth in the future as well.</p><p><strong>Gaming</strong> has historically been the core revenue driver. While now the segment makes up around 10% of the overall revenue on a trailing twelve-month basis, the synergies between AI and gaming with enhancements in computer graphics and game dynamics could drive stronger sales in this segment. I am assuming a relatively modest 4-6% CAGR growth.</p><p>Likewise, Nvidia&#39;s DRIVE platform has the potential to drive more revenue in the future, particularly as the autonomous vehicle market grows. In fact, the <strong>automotive</strong> AI chip market is projected to grow 31% CAGR, reaching $109B by 2030. If Nvidia captures 20-25% of this market, it could add $20-30B annually in automotive revenue. Meanwhile, Nvidia&#39;s Omniverse platform and digital-twin technology have broad applications in industrial simulation, robotics, and generative AI, potentially adding $10-$15B in revenue by 2029.</p><table><colgroup><col/><col/><col/><col/><col/><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span><strong>Segment Revenue</strong></span></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span><strong>2024</strong></span></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span><strong>2025</strong></span></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span><strong>2026</strong></span></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span><strong>2027</strong></span></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span><strong>2028</strong></span></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span><strong>2029</strong></span></p></td></tr><tr><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span><strong>Data Centers</strong></span></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span>$82</span></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span>$103</span></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span>$131</span></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span>$165</span></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span>$209</span></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span>$265</span></p></td></tr><tr><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span><strong>Gaming</strong></span></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span>$11</span></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span>$12</span></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span>$12</span></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span>$13</span></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span>$14</span></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span>$14</span></p></td></tr><tr><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span><strong>Automotive</strong></span></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span>$3</span></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span>$5</span></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span>$7</span></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span>$11</span></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span>$17</span></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span>$25</span></p></td></tr><tr><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span><strong>Other</strong></span></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span>$-</span></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span>$2</span></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span>$3</span></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span>$5</span></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span>$7</span></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span>$12</span></p></td></tr><tr><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span><strong>Total</strong></span></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span>$<strong>96</strong></span></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span>$<strong>122</strong></span></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span>$<strong>154</strong></span></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span>$<strong>194</strong></span></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span>$<strong>247</strong></span></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p><span>$<strong>316</strong></span></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Combining all the segments, supported by strong AI growth but taking an average 26.5% CAGR growth in the data center segment, Nvidia&#39;s revenue could reach around $320B annually by the end of 2029, supporting further market cap expansion.</p><p>Now, the semiconductor business is inherently cyclical, driven by the swings in demand influenced by the underlying economy, and that has had an impact on Nvidia&#39;s net profit <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\" href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NVDA/profitability#hasComeFromMpArticle=false#source=section%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link\" title=\"\">margins</a> in the past:</p><ul><li><p><strong>FY 2020:</strong> 25.61%.</p></li><li><p><strong>FY 2021:</strong> 25.98%.</p></li><li><p><strong>FY 2022:</strong> 36.23%.</p></li><li><p><strong>FY 2023:</strong> 16.19%.</p></li><li><p><strong>FY 2024:</strong> 48.85%.</p></li></ul><p>… and likely will have an impact in the future. Nvidia&#39;s net profit margin over the past 5 years has been 30.5%, but we see a significant divergence from the mean in FY24 thanks to the AI segment, which has fundamentally shifted Nvidia&#39;s business towards a higher margin segment. For the sake of this valuation exercise, I would feel comfortable using a future net margin of around 40%.</p><p>A $320B annual run rate revenue and 40% net margin result in a net income of $126.4B by the end of 2029. For the past 15 years, Nvidia&#39;s <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\" href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NVDA/valuation/metrics#hasComeFromMpArticle=false#source=section%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link\" title=\"\">stock traded</a> on average at a P/E multiple of 36x, but again, the business has accelerated growth and improved margins. Hence, a higher multiple of 45-50x is realistic, thanks to the improved fundamentals.</p><p>At a P/E multiple of 45x (bear case), Nvidia would be valued at $5.69T at the end of 2029, and at a P/E multiple of 50x (bull case), it would be valued at $6.32T.</p><p>Compared to today&#39;s market cap of $3.6T, this would represent a growth of 58% to 76% in the next 5 years, which I consider relatively attractive.</p><h2><strong>Investor&#39;s Takeaway</strong></h2><p>Nvidia has been the key beneficiary of the AI investment narrative, with CAPEX spending ballooning in the race to build “state-of-the-art” AI data centers by the hyperscalers.</p><p>As a result, the company has become the most valuable of them all, with a current market cap of $3.6T. It&#39;s valid to ask how far Nvidia can grow as the law of large numbers starts dragging on its growth rates.</p><p>In this article, I tried to demonstrate the expected growth rates of data centers, gaming, automotive, and other segments, which will drive Nvidia&#39;s revenue for the remainder of the decade.</p><p>Overall, I expect Nvidia&#39;s revenue to grow at 24% CAGR until the end of 2029. If the company manages to retain its net margins at the higher end of the historical range, it could reach a market cap of around $5.69T in the bear case and $6.32T in the bull case, with relatively attractive returns moving forward.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1642056764450","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Large Can Nvidia Realistically Grow</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Large Can Nvidia Realistically Grow\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-11-16 09:40 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4737876-how-large-can-nvidia-realistically-grow><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryNvidia Corporation's AI-driven growth has been exceptional, with data centers now comprising 88% of revenue, leading to a 38% stock increase since my last upgrade.Nvidia's market cap is $3.6T, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4737876-how-large-can-nvidia-realistically-grow\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4737876-how-large-can-nvidia-realistically-grow","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162498604","content_text":"SummaryNvidia Corporation's AI-driven growth has been exceptional, with data centers now comprising 88% of revenue, leading to a 38% stock increase since my last upgrade.Nvidia's market cap is $3.6T, with a Blended P/E of 58.5x; future growth depends on maintaining its competitive edge in AI and data centers.I project Nvidia's revenue to grow at a 24% CAGR until 2029, potentially reaching a market cap of $5.69T to $6.32T, offering attractive returns.Nvidia's future opportunities include AI, gaming, automotive, and industrial applications, with innovations like the Blackwell GPU architecture driving growth.JHVEPhotoI last wrote coverage about NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) back in September, upgrading the stock to a buy in the article “Nvidia's Stock Is A Gift At $105.” My upgrade followed the broader market weakness in late summer, particularly in the high-flying semis. Despite the downturn, which seemed like a healthy correction, mega-cap companies are not yet showing signs of exhaustion, and their CAPEX spending continues to balloon to record levels, fueling Nvidia's growth. At the same time, Nvidia's data center market share remains relatively stable despite increased competition, and the gross margins are continuously healthy, above 75%.Since my rating upgrade, the stock has been up 38%, compared to a roughly 9% gain in the broader market (SP500), proving my call was accurate. However, I won't be patting myself on the shoulder just yet, as in the bull market, buying quality almost always means positive returns.Below, you can see my previous Nvidia calls and the performance that followed:Previous Coverage (Seeking Alpha)Now, Nvidia is valued at $3.6T, making it the most valuable company of them all. It trades at a Blended P/E of 58.5x. The fair question to ask ourselves is how large Nvidia can realistically grow, and whether it still presents a good investment opportunity.I previously purchased shares of Nvidia myself at around $400/share pre-split, and now I am sitting on major gains.Nvidia's Previous GrowthBefore looking into the future, let's first look at Nvidia's success in the past few years and what has fueled its growth.The adoption of AI has been Nvidia's primary growth driver, as the company's innovation has led to being at the right time, at the right place, with the right product. The GPUs using the Hopper Infrastructure, such as the A100 and H100 series, were so far the backbone of AI training and inference, powering generative AI models, such as the widely used ChatGPT, Perplexity, Copilot, etc. The AI “revolution,” a term tossed around a lot, has led to increased demand for Nvidia's products for cloud computing and enterprise applications without signs of exhaustion, particularly as Nvidia is starting to sell new, more advanced Blackwell architecture.That's mainly why Nvidia's data center segment has experienced exponential growth. It is fueled by the “so-called” cloud hyperscalers such as Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) with Azure, Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), (GOOGL) with Cloud, and Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) with AWS, as the CAPEX spend ballooned in the race for the most advanced AI infrastructure.CAPEX Spending (Sherwood)But that wasn't always the case. Previously, Nvidia's business has centered around GPUs powering gaming. Still, this narrative is long gone, with the business innovating and ultimately reinventing itself to become the fundamental brick in the new computing era. Data centers now make up around 88% of its total revenue, compared to less than 50% just 2 years ago.Nvidia Revenue Breakdown (App Economy Insights)The graphs above very well depict Nvidia's stellar growth quarter over quarter, but let's look at annual revenue growth:FY22: $26.91B, YoY 61% growth.FY23: $26.97B, YoY 0% growth.FY24: $60.92B, YoY 226% growth.FY25: (Actual YTD $56.08B + Estimate YTG $69.51B) = $125.59B, YoY 206% growth.These are stellar growth numbers and perhaps the most significant success story I have seen during my investment career. Nonetheless, the law of large numbers is clear: the larger the company gets, the more difficult it becomes to grow its top line, and moving forward, it will become increasingly difficult for Nvidia to grow at such unprecedented rates.Nvidia's Future OpportunityNvidia's AI GPU first-mover advantage has given the company a competitive advantage in establishing its market share before any other company could, with Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) and Intel Corporation (INTC) now playing catch-up.According to TechSpot, Nvidia's GPU market share was 88% in Q1 2024, an increase from 80% in the prior year. That's particularly important because we see the competition intensify, both from other semi-companies and the already mentioned cloud hyperscalers. They are developing their in-house chips to address their custom needs, but so far, Nvidia's position remains unchallenged, perhaps due to their engineering superiority. However, as time passes and the generational leaps in technology become less pronounced, I expect Nvidia's market share to fall, and its gross margin will eventually decline.Let's now look at how large the AI chip market is and how fast it's expected to grow.If we assume Nvidia's trailing twelve-month data center revenue of $81.75B and their market share of 88%, we can conclude that the current overall market size is around $92.9B.If we look at the forecast from MarketsandMarkets, they are estimating the market size to reach $311B by 2029, which would represent a 19% CAGR from today.However, for instance, AMD is expecting the market to grow to as large as $400B by the end of 2027, which would be a 34% CAGR, which is quite optimistic, in my opinion.Nonetheless, this shows us that the market size forecasts are all over the place. However, Nvidia is still positioned as the key beneficiary in capturing a significant portion of this opportunity.If we assume Nvidia's data center revenue grows in line with the market, Nvidia's data center revenue could reach anywhere between $138B — $197B by the end of 2027 and $195B by the end of 2029, depending on the growth estimate we use in our calculation, as per below, if we assume no market share loss over the following years:Data Center Revenue Growth20242025202620272028202919% CAGR (MarketsandMarkets)$82$97$116$138$164$19534% CAGR (AMD)$82$110$147$197Several market trends and innovations, such as the new Blackwell GPU Architecture, should unlock this growth for Nvidia. Production is on track to ramp up in H2 2024, and sales will follow suit as soon as Q1 2025. This new architecture promises 25x more cost-effective and energy-efficient GPUs for training LLM, with energy being one of the main hurdles for AI data centers.Following the successful implementation of generative AI into services such as ChatGPT, Microsoft's Copilot, and cloud-based offerings, governments around the world are expected to start investing in AI systems tailored to their custom needs. This untapped opportunity could become a significant revenue stream in the future.But that's not all. We should not forget other Nvidia business segments, which are poised to contribute meaningfully to revenue growth in the future as well.Gaming has historically been the core revenue driver. While now the segment makes up around 10% of the overall revenue on a trailing twelve-month basis, the synergies between AI and gaming with enhancements in computer graphics and game dynamics could drive stronger sales in this segment. I am assuming a relatively modest 4-6% CAGR growth.Likewise, Nvidia's DRIVE platform has the potential to drive more revenue in the future, particularly as the autonomous vehicle market grows. In fact, the automotive AI chip market is projected to grow 31% CAGR, reaching $109B by 2030. If Nvidia captures 20-25% of this market, it could add $20-30B annually in automotive revenue. Meanwhile, Nvidia's Omniverse platform and digital-twin technology have broad applications in industrial simulation, robotics, and generative AI, potentially adding $10-$15B in revenue by 2029.Segment Revenue202420252026202720282029Data Centers$82$103$131$165$209$265Gaming$11$12$12$13$14$14Automotive$3$5$7$11$17$25Other$-$2$3$5$7$12Total$96$122$154$194$247$316Combining all the segments, supported by strong AI growth but taking an average 26.5% CAGR growth in the data center segment, Nvidia's revenue could reach around $320B annually by the end of 2029, supporting further market cap expansion.Now, the semiconductor business is inherently cyclical, driven by the swings in demand influenced by the underlying economy, and that has had an impact on Nvidia's net profit margins in the past:FY 2020: 25.61%.FY 2021: 25.98%.FY 2022: 36.23%.FY 2023: 16.19%.FY 2024: 48.85%.… and likely will have an impact in the future. Nvidia's net profit margin over the past 5 years has been 30.5%, but we see a significant divergence from the mean in FY24 thanks to the AI segment, which has fundamentally shifted Nvidia's business towards a higher margin segment. For the sake of this valuation exercise, I would feel comfortable using a future net margin of around 40%.A $320B annual run rate revenue and 40% net margin result in a net income of $126.4B by the end of 2029. For the past 15 years, Nvidia's stock traded on average at a P/E multiple of 36x, but again, the business has accelerated growth and improved margins. Hence, a higher multiple of 45-50x is realistic, thanks to the improved fundamentals.At a P/E multiple of 45x (bear case), Nvidia would be valued at $5.69T at the end of 2029, and at a P/E multiple of 50x (bull case), it would be valued at $6.32T.Compared to today's market cap of $3.6T, this would represent a growth of 58% to 76% in the next 5 years, which I consider relatively attractive.Investor's TakeawayNvidia has been the key beneficiary of the AI investment narrative, with CAPEX spending ballooning in the race to build “state-of-the-art” AI data centers by the hyperscalers.As a result, the company has become the most valuable of them all, with a current market cap of $3.6T. It's valid to ask how far Nvidia can grow as the law of large numbers starts dragging on its growth rates.In this article, I tried to demonstrate the expected growth rates of data centers, gaming, automotive, and other segments, which will drive Nvidia's revenue for the remainder of the decade.Overall, I expect Nvidia's revenue to grow at 24% CAGR until the end of 2029. If the company manages to retain its net margins at the higher end of the historical range, it could reach a market cap of around $5.69T in the bear case and $6.32T in the bull case, with relatively attractive returns moving forward.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":13,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9983001747,"gmtCreate":1666102213889,"gmtModify":1676537706277,"author":{"id":"3576200971552042","authorId":"3576200971552042","name":"TradeXedarT","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5487404dd40db685ae874197aafdca47","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576200971552042","authorIdStr":"3576200971552042"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$Tesla 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Motors(TSLA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912861464","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":198,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9074553385,"gmtCreate":1658377076347,"gmtModify":1676536150316,"author":{"id":"3576200971552042","authorId":"3576200971552042","name":"TradeXedarT","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5487404dd40db685ae874197aafdca47","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576200971552042","authorIdStr":"3576200971552042"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Power la","listText":"Power la","text":"Power la","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9074553385","repostId":"1198482191","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":173,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9074519291,"gmtCreate":1658371052913,"gmtModify":1676536149313,"author":{"id":"3576200971552042","authorId":"3576200971552042","name":"TradeXedarT","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5487404dd40db685ae874197aafdca47","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576200971552042","authorIdStr":"3576200971552042"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Go go go","listText":"Go go go","text":"Go go go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9074519291","repostId":"2253685766","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":319,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9074207374,"gmtCreate":1658361993298,"gmtModify":1676536146294,"author":{"id":"3576200971552042","authorId":"3576200971552042","name":"TradeXedarT","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5487404dd40db685ae874197aafdca47","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576200971552042","authorIdStr":"3576200971552042"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9074207374","repostId":"2253761928","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2253761928","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1658361644,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2253761928?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-21 08:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla (TSLA) Sold 75% of its Bitcoin Worth $936 Million","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2253761928","media":"StreetInsider","summary":"According to the Q2 quarterly update, Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has converted approximately 75% of its Bi","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>According to the Q2 quarterly update, Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has converted approximately 75% of its Bitcoin purchases into fiat currency during the quarter, which added $936 million of cash to its balance sheet.</p><p>In early 2021, Tesla started to invest in Bitcoin after updating its investment policy to give the company more flexibility to further diversify and maximize returns on its cash that is not required to maintain adequate operating liquidity. The company invested a total of $1.50 billion in bitcoin under this policy.</p><p>The company’s balance sheet shows $218 million in digital assets as of the end of Q2, compared to $1.261 billion in digital assets as of the end of Q1.</p></body></html>","source":"highlight_streetinsider","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla (TSLA) Sold 75% of its Bitcoin Worth $936 Million</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla (TSLA) Sold 75% of its Bitcoin Worth $936 Million\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-21 08:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=20348677><strong>StreetInsider</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>According to the Q2 quarterly update, Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has converted approximately 75% of its Bitcoin purchases into fiat currency during the quarter, which added $936 million of cash to its ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=20348677\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=20348677","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2253761928","content_text":"According to the Q2 quarterly update, Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has converted approximately 75% of its Bitcoin purchases into fiat currency during the quarter, which added $936 million of cash to its balance sheet.In early 2021, Tesla started to invest in Bitcoin after updating its investment policy to give the company more flexibility to further diversify and maximize returns on its cash that is not required to maintain adequate operating liquidity. The company invested a total of $1.50 billion in bitcoin under this policy.The company’s balance sheet shows $218 million in digital assets as of the end of Q2, compared to $1.261 billion in digital assets as of the end of Q1.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":347,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9075190580,"gmtCreate":1658156922740,"gmtModify":1676536114059,"author":{"id":"3576200971552042","authorId":"3576200971552042","name":"TradeXedarT","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5487404dd40db685ae874197aafdca47","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576200971552042","authorIdStr":"3576200971552042"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Smile]&nbsp;[Happy]&nbsp;","listText":"[Smile]&nbsp;[Happy]&nbsp;","text":"[Smile] [Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9075190580","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":271,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9076428821,"gmtCreate":1657893971563,"gmtModify":1676536078351,"author":{"id":"3576200971552042","authorId":"3576200971552042","name":"TradeXedarT","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5487404dd40db685ae874197aafdca47","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576200971552042","authorIdStr":"3576200971552042"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Cool]&nbsp;","listText":"[Cool]&nbsp;","text":"[Cool]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9076428821","repostId":"2251458832","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2251458832","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1657892220,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2251458832?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-15 21:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Elon Musk: Tesla Can Lower Prices 'if Inflation Calms Down'","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2251458832","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"By Will Feuer \n\n\n \n\n\n  Tesla Inc. can lower prices for its cars \"if inflation calms down,\" Chief Exe","content":"<font class=\"NormalMinus1\" face=\"Arial\">\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  By Will Feuer \n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  Tesla Inc. can lower prices for its cars \"if inflation calms down,\" Chief Executive Elon Musk said. \n</p>\n<p>\n  Mr. Musk's comments, made Friday in a tweet, come a month after Tesla last raised prices on some of its cars by as much as $6,000. Before that, Tesla raised prices in March, soon after Mr. Musk warned in a tweet that Tesla and his Space Exploration Technologies Corp., or SpaceX, \"are seeing significant recent inflation pressure in raw materials &amp; logistics.\" \n</p>\n<p>\n  Mr. Musk in April said that prices take into account monthslong wait lists for Tesla cars as well as expectations that costs will continue to rise. \n</p>\n<p>\n  \"It may seem like maybe we're being unreasonable about increasing the prices of our vehicles given that we had record profitability this quarter,\" Mr. Musk said on the company's quarterly earnings call. \"Our prices of vehicles ordered now are really anticipating supplier and logistics cost growth that we're aware of and believe will happen over the next six to 12 months.\" \n</p>\n<p>\n  Mr. Musk at the time said that if the company's expected cost increases didn't materialize, Tesla may slightly reduce prices. \n</p>\n<p>\n  Between 10% and 15% of Tesla's cost structure is exposed to swings in raw-materials prices, finance chief Zachary Kirkhorn said in April. \n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  Write to Will Feuer at Will.Feuer@wsj.com \n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/END\">$(END)$</a> Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n  July 15, 2022 09:37 ET (13:37 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n  Copyright (c) 2022 Dow Jones &amp; Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Elon Musk: Tesla Can Lower Prices 'if Inflation Calms Down'</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nElon Musk: Tesla Can Lower Prices 'if Inflation Calms Down'\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-07-15 21:37</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<font class=\"NormalMinus1\" face=\"Arial\">\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  By Will Feuer \n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  Tesla Inc. can lower prices for its cars \"if inflation calms down,\" Chief Executive Elon Musk said. \n</p>\n<p>\n  Mr. Musk's comments, made Friday in a tweet, come a month after Tesla last raised prices on some of its cars by as much as $6,000. Before that, Tesla raised prices in March, soon after Mr. Musk warned in a tweet that Tesla and his Space Exploration Technologies Corp., or SpaceX, \"are seeing significant recent inflation pressure in raw materials &amp; logistics.\" \n</p>\n<p>\n  Mr. Musk in April said that prices take into account monthslong wait lists for Tesla cars as well as expectations that costs will continue to rise. \n</p>\n<p>\n  \"It may seem like maybe we're being unreasonable about increasing the prices of our vehicles given that we had record profitability this quarter,\" Mr. Musk said on the company's quarterly earnings call. \"Our prices of vehicles ordered now are really anticipating supplier and logistics cost growth that we're aware of and believe will happen over the next six to 12 months.\" \n</p>\n<p>\n  Mr. Musk at the time said that if the company's expected cost increases didn't materialize, Tesla may slightly reduce prices. \n</p>\n<p>\n  Between 10% and 15% of Tesla's cost structure is exposed to swings in raw-materials prices, finance chief Zachary Kirkhorn said in April. \n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  Write to Will Feuer at Will.Feuer@wsj.com \n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/END\">$(END)$</a> Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n  July 15, 2022 09:37 ET (13:37 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n  Copyright (c) 2022 Dow Jones &amp; Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓"},"source_url":"http://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2251458832","content_text":"By Will Feuer \n\n\n \n\n\n  Tesla Inc. can lower prices for its cars \"if inflation calms down,\" Chief Executive Elon Musk said. \n\n\n  Mr. Musk's comments, made Friday in a tweet, come a month after Tesla last raised prices on some of its cars by as much as $6,000. Before that, Tesla raised prices in March, soon after Mr. Musk warned in a tweet that Tesla and his Space Exploration Technologies Corp., or SpaceX, \"are seeing significant recent inflation pressure in raw materials & logistics.\" \n\n\n  Mr. Musk in April said that prices take into account monthslong wait lists for Tesla cars as well as expectations that costs will continue to rise. \n\n\n  \"It may seem like maybe we're being unreasonable about increasing the prices of our vehicles given that we had record profitability this quarter,\" Mr. Musk said on the company's quarterly earnings call. \"Our prices of vehicles ordered now are really anticipating supplier and logistics cost growth that we're aware of and believe will happen over the next six to 12 months.\" \n\n\n  Mr. Musk at the time said that if the company's expected cost increases didn't materialize, Tesla may slightly reduce prices. \n\n\n  Between 10% and 15% of Tesla's cost structure is exposed to swings in raw-materials prices, finance chief Zachary Kirkhorn said in April. \n\n\n \n\n\n  Write to Will Feuer at Will.Feuer@wsj.com \n\n\n \n\n\n$(END)$ Dow Jones Newswires\n\n\n  July 15, 2022 09:37 ET (13:37 GMT)\n\n\n  Copyright (c) 2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":198,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9071273411,"gmtCreate":1657547798033,"gmtModify":1676536023279,"author":{"id":"3576200971552042","authorId":"3576200971552042","name":"TradeXedarT","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5487404dd40db685ae874197aafdca47","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576200971552042","authorIdStr":"3576200971552042"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9071273411","repostId":"1164092479","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1164092479","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1657553305,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1164092479?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-11 23:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: The Last Bubble Standing","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164092479","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryAs the market crumbles around it, the enthusiasm for Tesla is unwavering. With a 1% earnings ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>As the market crumbles around it, the enthusiasm for Tesla is unwavering. With a 1% earnings yield, Tesla is the last bubble standing.</li><li>Elon Musk’s diverted focus is not good news for AI and autonomous drive. He’s been selling stock hand-over-fist.</li><li>In the next recession, Tesla&#39;s earnings will likely decline, and the bubble will go &#34;pop.&#34; We&#39;ll dig into why we see a lost decade ahead for TSLA.</li></ul><p><b>The Thesis</b></p><p>Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has captured the minds of investors the world over. The company has become more of a gambling machine than an investment; in 2021, TSLA was the most traded stock among retail investors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e3d4b7cda76da9b0147473895a518c9\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"1088\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Most Traded Stocks (Degiro)</p><p>So why is Tesla not crumbling entirely in the face of this bear market? Well, autos are still riding an all-time hot wave of sales, and investors aren&#39;t pricing in the cyclicality of earnings. In a deep recession, Tesla&#39;s earnings can and likely will decline, along with all other automakers. At which time, the air will come out of Tesla&#39;s stock.</p><p><b>Autos vs. Recession</b></p><p>Recessions get nasty for auto manufacturers. History has shown that it doesn&#39;t matter who you are, when big recessions hit, auto earnings not only decline but usually go negative in this capital-intensive industry. In 2009, auto manufacturers got absolutely crushed, reporting negative net income across the board:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/178b4e4d53d206f47912083db8e6b7ea\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data by YCharts</p><p>You may ask, &#34;What about the recession of 2020?&#34; Well, 2020 was unlike any recession in the past. The government sent out so many stimulus checks, that consumers&#39; bank accounts actually ballooned. Combined with the lowest interest rates in 5000 years, buying a $50,000 car became more affordable than ever.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8dea3cc478a3fb47133524908183cc64\" tg-width=\"786\" tg-height=\"565\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Cash Balances of American Consumers (RSM)</p><p><b>Disconnected Management</b></p><p>As the bubble booms on, Elon Musk has beensellingTesla shares hand-over-fist, with excuses like this:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3740aa3afe71aa226eca83a1d035e273\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Elon Musk Tweet (Bloomberg)</p><p>This is not what we like to see from our CEO. To be fair to Musk, he did tweet this back in 2020, when the stock was at $140 per share:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a940e22f55a558f3d8e8d882e91469a\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"334\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Elon Musk Tweet (Quora)</p><p>TSLA currently has a 1% earnings yield on what is likely an industry peak. It appears to us that Elon&#39;s getting out.</p><p>With the proceeds, Musk is attempting to buy Twitter (TWTR) outright. Keep in mind that Musk is not only focusing his time and attention on this, but to SpaceX, which is arguably a more promising business. The space industry is projected to reach $1 trillion in revenue by 2040.</p><p><b>A Fundamental Look At Tesla&#39;s Growth</b></p><p>Tesla is going global and getting closer to its customer base, with new factories in Shanghai, China, as well as Berlin, Germany. You would think this move would expand Tesla&#39;s market share. But from 2020 to 2021, Tesla&#39;s global market share actually shrank from17%to just under14%.</p><p>Competition is coming from everywhere. With a 14% market share, Tesla is more likely to lose share than to gain it. Companies like Honda (HMC) (OTCPK:HNDAF), BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY), Ford (F), GM (GM), Hyundai (OTCPK:HYMTF), Jaguar, Kia (OTCPK:KIMTF), Mazda (OTCPK:MZDAY) (OTCPK:MZDAF), Mercedes (OTCPK:DDAIF) (OTCPK:DMLRY), Mitsubishi, Nissan (OTCPK:NSANY) (OTCPK:NSANF), Stellantis (STLA), Subaru (OTCPK:FUJHY) (OTCPK:FUJHF), Toyota (TM) (OTCPK:TOYOF), Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY) (OTCPK:VLKAF) (OTCPK:VWAPY), and Volvo (OTCPK:VOLAF) (OTCPK:VLVLY) (OTCPK:VOLVF) are all adding EVs to their lineups. Many of these companies have strong and entrenched brands and are partnering with EV titans like BYD (OTCPK:BYDDF). On top of that, they&#39;re producing EVs that are more affordable for the average consumer.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78163ed4a8e14f033b94ab5f7ab5ba04\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"701\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Global EV Market Share (Statista)</p><p>Tesla&#39;s margins could also decrease. A cooler economy, increased competition, and used EVs coming online means the price of buying an EV could actually fall over time. Tesla&#39;s benefited from government credits, but these credits could dissipate now that EV companies like Tesla are profitable and highly valued.</p><p>To understand where Tesla is going, we need to understand where the industry is going. The number of electric vehicles sold globally is projected to grow at 17.5% per annum through to 2030. Tesla&#39;s energy business has grown revenue at21% per annum over the past 3 years.</p><p>95% of Tesla&#39;s revenue still comes from the automotive arm:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27d7141d89fbc6299c4d310ef0e3a6d2\" tg-width=\"1268\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla&#39;s Revenue Breakdown (2021 Annual Report)</p><p>Given the market share, margins, and industry risks, we estimate Tesla will simply match the growth of global EV sales, growing 17.5% per annum. The energy business should continue to grow and become profitable, which will partially make up for the issues cited above.</p><p><b>The Valuation</b></p><p>Our 2032 price target for TSLA is $683 per share, indicating a return of 0% per annum, with no dividends.</p><ul><li>Tesla has earnings of $7.78 per share, giving it a PE of nearly 100. If Tesla&#39;s EPS should grow at 17.5% per annum, we get 2032 earnings of $39 per share. While the typical car company trades at just 10x normalized earnings, Tesla continues to benefit from the transition to EVs, and should have a more prominent footprint in clean energy generation and storage in 2032. We&#39;ve applied a terminal multiple of 17.5x earnings, which is a 75% premium to the average car company. Remember, the auto business is cyclical, competitive, and prone to bankruptcy. It&#39;s difficult to justify a higher multiple unless our risks to the thesis play out.</li></ul><p><b>Risks To The Thesis</b></p><p>Tesla&#39;s future is very up in the air. Elon Musk has all sorts of stories for investors revolving around autonomous drive, robotics, ride-sharing, and artificial intelligence. However, we do not yet have substantial revenues from Musk&#39;s many grand ideas. When those revenues do materialize, the businesses are likely to be loss-making, much like TSLA&#39;s energy business thus far. Competition will be strong in these fields. Autonomous drive, for instance, has attracted competition from Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL), Uber (UBER), General Motors, Nvidia (NVDA), Baidu (BIDU), Ford, Aptiv (APTV), and Luminar Technologies (LAZR).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee253b2e571ef4520e73af17cb9e1ee6\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla Bot (Wired)</p><p>If Elon Musk&#39;s focus doesn&#39;t stray too much, the company could win in one or more of these fields, which would be a boon for long-term profits and Tesla&#39;s terminal multiple.</p><p>For more on the Tesla bull thesis, readers can review claims by Cathie Wood, who says the stock will quintuple in a few years.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: The Last Bubble Standing</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: The Last Bubble Standing\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-11 23:28 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4522405-tesla-stock-the-last-bubble-standing?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A23><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAs the market crumbles around it, the enthusiasm for Tesla is unwavering. With a 1% earnings yield, Tesla is the last bubble standing.Elon Musk’s diverted focus is not good news for AI and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4522405-tesla-stock-the-last-bubble-standing?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A23\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4522405-tesla-stock-the-last-bubble-standing?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A23","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164092479","content_text":"SummaryAs the market crumbles around it, the enthusiasm for Tesla is unwavering. With a 1% earnings yield, Tesla is the last bubble standing.Elon Musk’s diverted focus is not good news for AI and autonomous drive. He’s been selling stock hand-over-fist.In the next recession, Tesla's earnings will likely decline, and the bubble will go \"pop.\" We'll dig into why we see a lost decade ahead for TSLA.The ThesisTesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has captured the minds of investors the world over. The company has become more of a gambling machine than an investment; in 2021, TSLA was the most traded stock among retail investors.Most Traded Stocks (Degiro)So why is Tesla not crumbling entirely in the face of this bear market? Well, autos are still riding an all-time hot wave of sales, and investors aren't pricing in the cyclicality of earnings. In a deep recession, Tesla's earnings can and likely will decline, along with all other automakers. At which time, the air will come out of Tesla's stock.Autos vs. RecessionRecessions get nasty for auto manufacturers. History has shown that it doesn't matter who you are, when big recessions hit, auto earnings not only decline but usually go negative in this capital-intensive industry. In 2009, auto manufacturers got absolutely crushed, reporting negative net income across the board:Data by YChartsYou may ask, \"What about the recession of 2020?\" Well, 2020 was unlike any recession in the past. The government sent out so many stimulus checks, that consumers' bank accounts actually ballooned. Combined with the lowest interest rates in 5000 years, buying a $50,000 car became more affordable than ever.Cash Balances of American Consumers (RSM)Disconnected ManagementAs the bubble booms on, Elon Musk has beensellingTesla shares hand-over-fist, with excuses like this:Elon Musk Tweet (Bloomberg)This is not what we like to see from our CEO. To be fair to Musk, he did tweet this back in 2020, when the stock was at $140 per share:Elon Musk Tweet (Quora)TSLA currently has a 1% earnings yield on what is likely an industry peak. It appears to us that Elon's getting out.With the proceeds, Musk is attempting to buy Twitter (TWTR) outright. Keep in mind that Musk is not only focusing his time and attention on this, but to SpaceX, which is arguably a more promising business. The space industry is projected to reach $1 trillion in revenue by 2040.A Fundamental Look At Tesla's GrowthTesla is going global and getting closer to its customer base, with new factories in Shanghai, China, as well as Berlin, Germany. You would think this move would expand Tesla's market share. But from 2020 to 2021, Tesla's global market share actually shrank from17%to just under14%.Competition is coming from everywhere. With a 14% market share, Tesla is more likely to lose share than to gain it. Companies like Honda (HMC) (OTCPK:HNDAF), BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY), Ford (F), GM (GM), Hyundai (OTCPK:HYMTF), Jaguar, Kia (OTCPK:KIMTF), Mazda (OTCPK:MZDAY) (OTCPK:MZDAF), Mercedes (OTCPK:DDAIF) (OTCPK:DMLRY), Mitsubishi, Nissan (OTCPK:NSANY) (OTCPK:NSANF), Stellantis (STLA), Subaru (OTCPK:FUJHY) (OTCPK:FUJHF), Toyota (TM) (OTCPK:TOYOF), Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY) (OTCPK:VLKAF) (OTCPK:VWAPY), and Volvo (OTCPK:VOLAF) (OTCPK:VLVLY) (OTCPK:VOLVF) are all adding EVs to their lineups. Many of these companies have strong and entrenched brands and are partnering with EV titans like BYD (OTCPK:BYDDF). On top of that, they're producing EVs that are more affordable for the average consumer.Global EV Market Share (Statista)Tesla's margins could also decrease. A cooler economy, increased competition, and used EVs coming online means the price of buying an EV could actually fall over time. Tesla's benefited from government credits, but these credits could dissipate now that EV companies like Tesla are profitable and highly valued.To understand where Tesla is going, we need to understand where the industry is going. The number of electric vehicles sold globally is projected to grow at 17.5% per annum through to 2030. Tesla's energy business has grown revenue at21% per annum over the past 3 years.95% of Tesla's revenue still comes from the automotive arm:Tesla's Revenue Breakdown (2021 Annual Report)Given the market share, margins, and industry risks, we estimate Tesla will simply match the growth of global EV sales, growing 17.5% per annum. The energy business should continue to grow and become profitable, which will partially make up for the issues cited above.The ValuationOur 2032 price target for TSLA is $683 per share, indicating a return of 0% per annum, with no dividends.Tesla has earnings of $7.78 per share, giving it a PE of nearly 100. If Tesla's EPS should grow at 17.5% per annum, we get 2032 earnings of $39 per share. While the typical car company trades at just 10x normalized earnings, Tesla continues to benefit from the transition to EVs, and should have a more prominent footprint in clean energy generation and storage in 2032. We've applied a terminal multiple of 17.5x earnings, which is a 75% premium to the average car company. Remember, the auto business is cyclical, competitive, and prone to bankruptcy. It's difficult to justify a higher multiple unless our risks to the thesis play out.Risks To The ThesisTesla's future is very up in the air. Elon Musk has all sorts of stories for investors revolving around autonomous drive, robotics, ride-sharing, and artificial intelligence. However, we do not yet have substantial revenues from Musk's many grand ideas. When those revenues do materialize, the businesses are likely to be loss-making, much like TSLA's energy business thus far. Competition will be strong in these fields. Autonomous drive, for instance, has attracted competition from Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL), Uber (UBER), General Motors, Nvidia (NVDA), Baidu (BIDU), Ford, Aptiv (APTV), and Luminar Technologies (LAZR).Tesla Bot (Wired)If Elon Musk's focus doesn't stray too much, the company could win in one or more of these fields, which would be a boon for long-term profits and Tesla's terminal multiple.For more on the Tesla bull thesis, readers can review claims by Cathie Wood, who says the stock will quintuple in a few years.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":267,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":true}