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小老二
小老二
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2022-07-04
💪💪💪💪👍👍👍👍
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小老二
小老二
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2021-03-16
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小老二
小老二
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2021-03-15
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小老二
小老二
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2021-03-15
✌️✌️✌️✌️✌️✌️✌️
The decline in the e-commerce sector of Hong Kong stocks expanded, and Ali traded 1.28 million shares in large transactions
云财经讯,阿里巴巴股票在香港大宗交易128万股,成交价每股221.5港元。
The decline in the e-commerce sector of Hong Kong stocks expanded, and Ali traded 1.28 million shares in large transactions
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小老二
小老二
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2021-03-07
?????
Biden continues to "print money": stimulus plan increases GDP by 1 trillion yuan
拜登继续疯狂“印钱”!25小时马拉松,1票决定2万亿美元,参议院通过刺激计划!共和党一致反对,拜登:这一计划让GDP增加1万亿!周末重磅!美国参议院投票通过了1.9万亿美元(约12万亿人民币)新一轮经
Biden continues to "print money": stimulus plan increases GDP by 1 trillion yuan
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小老二
小老二
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2021-03-06
?????
Apple is a luck stock, not a value stock
前几天巴菲特发布了一年一度的致股东信,苹果毫无悬念地再次成为伯克希尔旗下的第一重仓股,持仓市值达到1200亿美元,而2016年的买入成本是300亿美元。5年时间获得了三倍的账面收益(减持之后)。 在净
Apple is a luck stock, not a value stock
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小老二
小老二
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2021-03-05
。。。。。。。
Increased production suspended? OPEC + 's silence is worrying
欧佩克+部长级会议将于今晚(3月4日)北京时间晚上21:00开始,届时欧佩克+将讨论是否增加产量的问题。然而,周三的初步谈判几乎没有透露它们是否会像市场预期的那样在4月份增加石油供应,这给今天的会议又
Increased production suspended? OPEC + 's silence is worrying
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小老二
小老二
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2021-03-04
????
Financial markets are "hyperinflated" and money printers have destroyed the value investing system
既然泡沫是货币宽松吹起来的,拐点还是要货币来决定
Financial markets are "hyperinflated" and money printers have destroyed the value investing system
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小老二
小老二
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2021-03-04
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小老二
小老二
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2021-03-03
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It is reported that the State Administration for Market Supervision will formulate a list of responsibilities for online trading platforms this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0021a08ffece3226dd59832952e8491\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca2161e8ddb469de4171b1fb09459c6b","relate_stocks":{"03690":"美团-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","09618":"京东集团-SW"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2119990944","content_text":"3月15日消息,阿里巴巴在香港市场成交大宗交易128万股,成交价每股221.5港元。同时,港股电商版块跌幅扩大,阿里巴巴跌超2%,京东跌超5.7%,美团跌超3%。市场监管总局据悉今年将制订网络交易平台责任清单。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"48482":0.6,"48516":0.6,"48607":0.6,"48738":0.6,"09618":0.9,"09988":0.9,"BABA":0.6,"03690":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1635,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":320665726,"gmtCreate":1615094815065,"gmtModify":1704778635534,"author":{"id":"3576476136293909","authorId":"3576476136293909","name":"小老二","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c4122726bb17be855a0fd1a62d04a04","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576476136293909","idStr":"3576476136293909"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?????","listText":"?????","text":"?????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/320665726","repostId":"2117554496","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2117554496","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615074336,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2117554496?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-07 07:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Biden continues to \"print money\": stimulus plan increases GDP by 1 trillion yuan","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2117554496","media":"e公司","summary":"拜登继续疯狂“印钱”!25小时马拉松,1票决定2万亿美元,参议院通过刺激计划!共和党一致反对,拜登:这一计划让GDP增加1万亿!周末重磅!美国参议院投票通过了1.9万亿美元(约12万亿人民币)新一轮经","content":"<p>Biden continues to \"print money\" like crazy! 25-hour marathon, 1 vote decides $2 trillion, Senate passes stimulus package! Republicans unanimously oppose it, Biden: This plan will increase GDP by 1 trillion yuan!</p><p>Heavy weekend! The U.S. Senate voted to pass a new round of economic rescue plan of $1.9 trillion (about 12 trillion yuan).</p><p>Latest, U.S. President Biden said on the 6th that the Senate passed the $1.9 trillion new crown relief bill, which means that the $1,400 paid to most Americans will begin to be distributed this month, and the provisions of the bill will also speed up vaccines. production and distribution.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15738453c9ff9c639009f97576273cc8\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Biden also said that the economic stimulus plan could increase U.S. gross domestic product by $1 trillion.</p><p>Former President Barack Obama issued a series of tweets praising this process immediately after the bill was passed. In his tweet, he said, \"This kind of progress will only happen when we elect government leaders who are committed to improving people's lives, which also reminds us why voting is so important.</p><p>Marathon Vote! 1 vote to decide the 12 trillion stimulus plan</p><p>On Saturday, U.S. President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion economic stimulus plan passed the Senate by a 50-49 vote.</p><p>Earlier, the Senate held a marathon amendment vote for more than 25 hours.</p><p>The stimulus plan will go to the House again, and Democrats hope to get it signed into law next week. The passage of this plan will give Biden his first victory in legislative work and lay the foundation for the massive infrastructure and manufacturing recovery bill he hopes to introduce.</p><p>Republicans unanimously oppose it</p><p>It is worth noting that previously, the U.S. House of Representatives voted to pass a new round of economic rescue plan of $1.9 trillion. This House vote is for the amendment bill.</p><p>The bill includes a $1,400 relief check per person (which needs to meet the annual individual or family income standard), a weekly unemployment benefit of $300 throughout the summer, a child allowance of up to $3,600 a year, and a $350 billion state aid subsidies, $34 billion in Affordable Care Act subsidies and $14 billion in COVID-19 vaccine subsidies.</p><p>Although the bailout bill was passed in the U.S. Senate, it was unanimously opposed by Republicans.</p><p>It is reported that when Biden introduced the bill, he planned to raise the minimum wage to $15 per hour, but Senator Elizabeth MacDonough ruled on February 25 that the plan to raise the minimum wage was not in line with The provisions of the budget coordination plan should not be included in the $1.9 trillion economic rescue plan.</p><p>U.S. Senate Majority Leader Schumer said that the House of Representatives is expected to pass an economic stimulus bill, and U.S. President Joe Biden will sign the bill before the March 14 deadline, because the extended unemployment assistance measures will expire that day.</p><p>U.S. GDP growth will explode</p><p>As the U.S. Democratic Party is about to pass a nearly $2 trillion economic stimulus bill and the vaccination program continues to advance, the U.S. economic outlook looks more optimistic than in early January.</p><p>According to the latest monthly survey of the agency, the economists surveyed expect the GDP of the United States to grow by about 4.8% year-on-year in the first quarter, twice the expectation in January. Full-year U.S. GDP growth is expected to be 5.5%, which will be the fastest growth rate since 1984 and higher than January's estimate of 4.1%.</p><p>Reports suggest congressional Democrats may consider more stimulus measures after the U.S. Senate passes a $1.9 trillion economic stimulus package, which will depend on economic and epidemic conditions in the coming months. U.S. Senate Majority Leader Schumer said that our primary goal is to help the American people. If they need more help, we will pass another bill. If this bill is enough and it brings a lot of help, then we won't pass another bill.</p><p>U.S. stocks reverse</p><p>According to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Friday, the U.S. added 379,000 new non-farm jobs in February, better than expected 210,000, and the unemployment rate fell to 6.2%. The January data was revised up from 49,000 new jobs to 166,000.</p><p>Among them, the leisure hotel industry rebounded the strongest, with a net increase of 355,000 jobs in February. In terms of sub-sectors, restaurants and bars created 286,000 new jobs, and the hotel industry hired 36,000 additional employees.</p><p>On Friday, when U.S. bond yields fluctuated at high levels, U.S. stocks also fluctuated violently. During the session, the Dow once fell 174 points, the Nasdaq once fell 2.67%, and the S&P 500 once fell more than 1%.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average reversed, rising to 31,580 points in late trading, rebounding 812 points from the intraday low. As of the close, the Dow rose 1.85% to 31,496 points. During the session, Federal Reserve Kashkari said that full employment has not been reached now and he is not worried about inflation.</p>","source":"LHCJ1","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Biden continues to \"print money\": stimulus plan increases GDP by 1 trillion yuan</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBiden continues to \"print money\": stimulus plan increases GDP by 1 trillion yuan\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">e公司</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-07 07:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Biden continues to \"print money\" like crazy! 25-hour marathon, 1 vote decides $2 trillion, Senate passes stimulus package! Republicans unanimously oppose it, Biden: This plan will increase GDP by 1 trillion yuan!</p><p>Heavy weekend! The U.S. Senate voted to pass a new round of economic rescue plan of $1.9 trillion (about 12 trillion yuan).</p><p>Latest, U.S. President Biden said on the 6th that the Senate passed the $1.9 trillion new crown relief bill, which means that the $1,400 paid to most Americans will begin to be distributed this month, and the provisions of the bill will also speed up vaccines. production and distribution.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15738453c9ff9c639009f97576273cc8\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Biden also said that the economic stimulus plan could increase U.S. gross domestic product by $1 trillion.</p><p>Former President Barack Obama issued a series of tweets praising this process immediately after the bill was passed. In his tweet, he said, \"This kind of progress will only happen when we elect government leaders who are committed to improving people's lives, which also reminds us why voting is so important.</p><p>Marathon Vote! 1 vote to decide the 12 trillion stimulus plan</p><p>On Saturday, U.S. President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion economic stimulus plan passed the Senate by a 50-49 vote.</p><p>Earlier, the Senate held a marathon amendment vote for more than 25 hours.</p><p>The stimulus plan will go to the House again, and Democrats hope to get it signed into law next week. The passage of this plan will give Biden his first victory in legislative work and lay the foundation for the massive infrastructure and manufacturing recovery bill he hopes to introduce.</p><p>Republicans unanimously oppose it</p><p>It is worth noting that previously, the U.S. House of Representatives voted to pass a new round of economic rescue plan of $1.9 trillion. This House vote is for the amendment bill.</p><p>The bill includes a $1,400 relief check per person (which needs to meet the annual individual or family income standard), a weekly unemployment benefit of $300 throughout the summer, a child allowance of up to $3,600 a year, and a $350 billion state aid subsidies, $34 billion in Affordable Care Act subsidies and $14 billion in COVID-19 vaccine subsidies.</p><p>Although the bailout bill was passed in the U.S. Senate, it was unanimously opposed by Republicans.</p><p>It is reported that when Biden introduced the bill, he planned to raise the minimum wage to $15 per hour, but Senator Elizabeth MacDonough ruled on February 25 that the plan to raise the minimum wage was not in line with The provisions of the budget coordination plan should not be included in the $1.9 trillion economic rescue plan.</p><p>U.S. Senate Majority Leader Schumer said that the House of Representatives is expected to pass an economic stimulus bill, and U.S. President Joe Biden will sign the bill before the March 14 deadline, because the extended unemployment assistance measures will expire that day.</p><p>U.S. GDP growth will explode</p><p>As the U.S. Democratic Party is about to pass a nearly $2 trillion economic stimulus bill and the vaccination program continues to advance, the U.S. economic outlook looks more optimistic than in early January.</p><p>According to the latest monthly survey of the agency, the economists surveyed expect the GDP of the United States to grow by about 4.8% year-on-year in the first quarter, twice the expectation in January. Full-year U.S. GDP growth is expected to be 5.5%, which will be the fastest growth rate since 1984 and higher than January's estimate of 4.1%.</p><p>Reports suggest congressional Democrats may consider more stimulus measures after the U.S. Senate passes a $1.9 trillion economic stimulus package, which will depend on economic and epidemic conditions in the coming months. U.S. Senate Majority Leader Schumer said that our primary goal is to help the American people. If they need more help, we will pass another bill. If this bill is enough and it brings a lot of help, then we won't pass another bill.</p><p>U.S. stocks reverse</p><p>According to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Friday, the U.S. added 379,000 new non-farm jobs in February, better than expected 210,000, and the unemployment rate fell to 6.2%. The January data was revised up from 49,000 new jobs to 166,000.</p><p>Among them, the leisure hotel industry rebounded the strongest, with a net increase of 355,000 jobs in February. In terms of sub-sectors, restaurants and bars created 286,000 new jobs, and the hotel industry hired 36,000 additional employees.</p><p>On Friday, when U.S. bond yields fluctuated at high levels, U.S. stocks also fluctuated violently. During the session, the Dow once fell 174 points, the Nasdaq once fell 2.67%, and the S&P 500 once fell more than 1%.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average reversed, rising to 31,580 points in late trading, rebounding 812 points from the intraday low. As of the close, the Dow rose 1.85% to 31,496 points. During the session, Federal Reserve Kashkari said that full employment has not been reached now and he is not worried about inflation.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/zqgd/2021-03-07/doc-ikkntiak5686640.shtml\">e公司</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ae95043f60aecab0531758d2129fd42","relate_stocks":{"DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/zqgd/2021-03-07/doc-ikkntiak5686640.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2117554496","content_text":"拜登继续疯狂“印钱”!25小时马拉松,1票决定2万亿美元,参议院通过刺激计划!共和党一致反对,拜登:这一计划让GDP增加1万亿!周末重磅!美国参议院投票通过了1.9万亿美元(约12万亿人民币)新一轮经济救助计划。最新,美国总统拜登6日表示,参议院通过了1.9万亿美元的新冠纾困法案,这意味着向大多数美国人支付的1400美元将于本月开始发放,该法案的条款也将加快疫苗的生产和分发。拜登还表示,经济刺激计划可以使美国国内生产总值增加1万亿美元。前总统奥巴马在法案通过后随即发表系列推文赞扬这一进程。他在推文中说,“只有当我们选出致力于改善民众生活的政府领导人时,才会发生这种进步,这也提醒我们为什么投票如此重要。马拉松投票!1票决定12万亿刺激计划周六,美国总统拜登提出的1.9万亿美元经济刺激计划在参议院以50-49的票数获得通过。此前,参议院进行了长达25个多小时的马拉松式修正案投票。刺激计划将再次提交给众议院审理,民主党希望下周能使其签署成为法律。这项计划的通过将使拜登在立法工作方面获得首项胜利,并为他希望提出的大规模基础设施和制造业复苏法案奠定了基础。共和党人一致反对值得注意的是,此前,美国众议院投票通过了1.9万亿美元新一轮经济救助计划。这次众议院的投票是针对修正法案。该法案包括每人1400美元的救助支票(需要符合个人或家庭年收入标准),贯穿整个夏季的每周300美元的失业救济金,一年最高3600美元的儿童津贴,3500亿美元的国家援助补贴,340亿美元的《可负担医疗法案》补贴以及140亿美元的新冠疫苗补贴。虽然该纾困救助法案在美国参议院获通过,但遭到共和党人一致反对。据悉,拜登在提出该法案时,曾计划在其中将最低工资提升至每小时15美元,但参议院议员伊丽莎白·麦克唐纳(Elizabeth MacDonough)于2月25日裁定,提高最低工资的计划不符合预算协调方案的规定,不应将其包括在1.9万亿美元的经济救助计划之中。美国参议院多数党领袖舒默表示,预计众议院将通过经济刺激法案,美国总统拜登将在3月14日的最后期限前签署该法案,因已经延长的失业援助措施将在那天到期。美国GDP增速将爆发而随着美国民主党即将通过近2万亿美元的经济刺激法案,以及疫苗接种计划继续推进,美国经济前景比1月初看起来更加乐观。机构最新月度调查显示,受访经济学家预计美国第一季度GDP将同比增长约4.8%,是1月份预期的2倍。预计美国全年GDP增速为5.5%,这将是1984年以来的最快增速,高于1月份4.1%的预期。有报道显示,在美国参议院通过1.9万亿美元的经济刺激计划后,国会民主党人可能考虑更多的刺激措施,这将取决于未来几个月的经济和疫情状况。美国参议院多数党领袖舒默表示,我们的首要目标是帮助美国人民,如果他们需要更多的帮助,我们会通过另一项法案。如果这个法案足够,而且带来了很大的帮助,那么我们就不会再通过另一项法案了。美股大逆转据美国劳工部周五公布的数据,2月美国新增非农就业37.9万,好于预期值21万,失业率跌至6.2%,1月数据由新增就业4.9万上修为16.6万。其中,休闲酒店行业反弹最为强劲,2月净增岗位35.5万,分细分行业来看,餐厅酒吧新增就业28.6万,酒店行业增聘人手3.6万。周五,美债收益率高位震荡之际,美股波动也十分剧烈。盘中,道指一度下跌174点,纳指一度大跌2.67%,标普500一度跌超1%。而道指实现逆转,尾盘涨至31580点,与日内低点相比反弹812点。截至收盘,道指上涨1.85%,报31496点。盘中,美联储卡什卡利表示,现在没有达到充分就业,对通胀不感到担忧。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DOG":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"SDOW":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1657,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":320086367,"gmtCreate":1614990794759,"gmtModify":1704777945404,"author":{"id":"3576476136293909","authorId":"3576476136293909","name":"小老二","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c4122726bb17be855a0fd1a62d04a04","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576476136293909","idStr":"3576476136293909"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?????","listText":"?????","text":"?????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/320086367","repostId":"2117688834","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2117688834","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"创业路上关键一招。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"接招","id":"1049897162","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27bae14b56414ca59b681e5e9b6a9596"},"pubTimestamp":1614910545,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2117688834?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-05 10:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Apple is a luck stock, not a value stock","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2117688834","media":"接招","summary":"前几天巴菲特发布了一年一度的致股东信,苹果毫无悬念地再次成为伯克希尔旗下的第一重仓股,持仓市值达到1200亿美元,而2016年的买入成本是300亿美元。5年时间获得了三倍的账面收益(减持之后)。\n在净","content":"<p>A few days ago, Buffett released his annual letter to shareholders,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Without any suspense to be again<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Its largest holding stock has a market value of US $120 billion, while the purchase cost in 2016 was US $30 billion. Gained three times the book income in 5 years (after the reduction of holdings).</p><p>In 2020, when net profit has been hit hard, fortunately, there are still fruit companies to support Berkshire's appearance.</p><p>In the past ten years, for many Chinese value investors, if there are three companies that are their ideal targets, they must be Maotai,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>And apples.</p><p>According to Buffett's philosophy, the so-called value stock is a company with moat attributes that is undervalued by the market. The moat is not difficult to understand, that is, it has a monopoly effect in a certain market, such as Moutai's influence in the high-end liquor market, Tencent's obvious advantages in social and gaming tracks, and Apple's appeal in the high-end mobile phone market.</p><p>One advantage of the moat is that even if the price is raised, it will not lose market share. Moutai and Apple mobile phones are obvious examples, and their prices have been rising in recent years.</p><p>The key is how to understand undervalued, or how to value undervalued stocks.</p><p>The common valuation method of value investing is discounted cash flow, which is the intrinsic value of the company by dividing the shareholder earnings by an appropriate discount rate. On the other hand, if you buy a long-term Treasury Bond with a huge sum of money, the annual interest income is equivalent to the company's shareholder earnings (generally close to net profit), and dividing the interest income by the interest rate is the true amount of this huge sum of money. The number is the intrinsic value of the company.</p><p>Therefore, this valuation method contains a variable and a constant: shareholder earnings is a variable, and the discount rate (long-term Treasury Bond interest rate) is a constant.</p><p>When Buffett was looking for undervalued stocks in his early years, he paid more attention to whether they were undervalued at that time, rather than whether they still had growth potential, commonly known as \"picking up cigarette butts.\" Such companies are generally small-cap stocks that attract little attention, and ultimately reach a reasonable valuation range through price regression rather than value growth. This stage can be called Value Investing 1.0.</p><p>Later, under the influence of Munger, he began to look for stocks that were not only undervalued, but also had huge growth potential in the future. This shift marks an important watershed in value investing: from just picking up bargains to paying more attention to future profitability. This stage can be called Value Investing 2.0.</p><p>The difference between Value Investing 1.0 and Value Investing 2.0 is that the former considers currently undervalued stocks, while the latter considers future undervalued stocks. The core lies in whether the company's profitability (shareholder earnings) continues to grow.</p><p>Therefore, the growth of shareholder earnings becomes a prediction of the company's ability to create cash flow in the future. For example, according to the growth of the company's net profit, it is predicted how much money it will earn in the next ten years. Divide it by 10 and then divide it by a discount rate. The true intrinsic value of the company.</p><p>It can be seen that the most difficult thing about value investing is to predict and estimate the company's profitability, because generally speaking, the discount rate is dead and the annual net profit is alive. The denominator is static and the numerator is dynamic.</p><p>But in the past five years, the determinant of Apple's market value has not been the numerator, but the denominator!</p><p>In fiscal year 2016, Apple's revenue was US $210 billion and its net profit was US $45 billion; In fiscal year 2020, revenue was US $270 billion and net profit was US $57 billion. The two indicators that best represent profitability, with increases of 28% and 26% respectively.</p><p>Let's take a look at Moutai, which is also the king of consumer stocks: its revenue in fiscal year 2016 was 40 billion yuan. Although the 2020 financial report has not yet come out, the revenue of 90 billion yuan should not be a big problem; The net profit in 2016 was 18 billion yuan, and last year's net profit should be around 50 billion yuan. The increases of the two indicators were 125% and 170% respectively.</p><p>From 2016 to 2020, Maotai's market value has increased 9 times; During the same period, Apple's market value more than quadrupled. However, Moutai's profitability has doubled in the past five years, while Apple's profit growth rate is only less than 30% (note: it is not an annual growth of 30%, but a total growth of 30% in five years). What does Apple rely on to support such a high market value?</p><p>The answer is that the denominator has changed. And it's a huge change. Buffett mentioned in this shareholder letter that the yield of the ten-year Treasury Bond in the United States in the past ten years was less than 1%. Last year, it was only 0.5% at its lowest, and 40 years ago, this figure was 15%. Even five years ago, the yield on the 10-year Treasury Bond in the United States was close to 2.5%.</p><p>Anyone who has been in the third grade of primary school knows that the smaller the denominator, the greater the quotient without obvious change in the numerator.</p><p>If we have to say that the stock god's purchase of Apple is a value investment, it is also a value investment 1.0, that is, buying the bottom in a timely manner according to the idea of picking up cigarette butts. But in any case, this deal doesn't belong to Value Investing 2.0. After all, in terms of revenue and profit growth rate, Apple is considered slow among technology companies.</p><p>What I really want to thank is the Federal Reserve and Trump.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple is a luck stock, not a value stock</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple is a luck stock, not a value stock\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1049897162\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/27bae14b56414ca59b681e5e9b6a9596);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">接招 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-05 10:15</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>A few days ago, Buffett released his annual letter to shareholders,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Without any suspense to be again<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Its largest holding stock has a market value of US $120 billion, while the purchase cost in 2016 was US $30 billion. Gained three times the book income in 5 years (after the reduction of holdings).</p><p>In 2020, when net profit has been hit hard, fortunately, there are still fruit companies to support Berkshire's appearance.</p><p>In the past ten years, for many Chinese value investors, if there are three companies that are their ideal targets, they must be Maotai,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>And apples.</p><p>According to Buffett's philosophy, the so-called value stock is a company with moat attributes that is undervalued by the market. The moat is not difficult to understand, that is, it has a monopoly effect in a certain market, such as Moutai's influence in the high-end liquor market, Tencent's obvious advantages in social and gaming tracks, and Apple's appeal in the high-end mobile phone market.</p><p>One advantage of the moat is that even if the price is raised, it will not lose market share. Moutai and Apple mobile phones are obvious examples, and their prices have been rising in recent years.</p><p>The key is how to understand undervalued, or how to value undervalued stocks.</p><p>The common valuation method of value investing is discounted cash flow, which is the intrinsic value of the company by dividing the shareholder earnings by an appropriate discount rate. On the other hand, if you buy a long-term Treasury Bond with a huge sum of money, the annual interest income is equivalent to the company's shareholder earnings (generally close to net profit), and dividing the interest income by the interest rate is the true amount of this huge sum of money. The number is the intrinsic value of the company.</p><p>Therefore, this valuation method contains a variable and a constant: shareholder earnings is a variable, and the discount rate (long-term Treasury Bond interest rate) is a constant.</p><p>When Buffett was looking for undervalued stocks in his early years, he paid more attention to whether they were undervalued at that time, rather than whether they still had growth potential, commonly known as \"picking up cigarette butts.\" Such companies are generally small-cap stocks that attract little attention, and ultimately reach a reasonable valuation range through price regression rather than value growth. This stage can be called Value Investing 1.0.</p><p>Later, under the influence of Munger, he began to look for stocks that were not only undervalued, but also had huge growth potential in the future. This shift marks an important watershed in value investing: from just picking up bargains to paying more attention to future profitability. This stage can be called Value Investing 2.0.</p><p>The difference between Value Investing 1.0 and Value Investing 2.0 is that the former considers currently undervalued stocks, while the latter considers future undervalued stocks. The core lies in whether the company's profitability (shareholder earnings) continues to grow.</p><p>Therefore, the growth of shareholder earnings becomes a prediction of the company's ability to create cash flow in the future. For example, according to the growth of the company's net profit, it is predicted how much money it will earn in the next ten years. Divide it by 10 and then divide it by a discount rate. The true intrinsic value of the company.</p><p>It can be seen that the most difficult thing about value investing is to predict and estimate the company's profitability, because generally speaking, the discount rate is dead and the annual net profit is alive. The denominator is static and the numerator is dynamic.</p><p>But in the past five years, the determinant of Apple's market value has not been the numerator, but the denominator!</p><p>In fiscal year 2016, Apple's revenue was US $210 billion and its net profit was US $45 billion; In fiscal year 2020, revenue was US $270 billion and net profit was US $57 billion. The two indicators that best represent profitability, with increases of 28% and 26% respectively.</p><p>Let's take a look at Moutai, which is also the king of consumer stocks: its revenue in fiscal year 2016 was 40 billion yuan. Although the 2020 financial report has not yet come out, the revenue of 90 billion yuan should not be a big problem; The net profit in 2016 was 18 billion yuan, and last year's net profit should be around 50 billion yuan. The increases of the two indicators were 125% and 170% respectively.</p><p>From 2016 to 2020, Maotai's market value has increased 9 times; During the same period, Apple's market value more than quadrupled. However, Moutai's profitability has doubled in the past five years, while Apple's profit growth rate is only less than 30% (note: it is not an annual growth of 30%, but a total growth of 30% in five years). What does Apple rely on to support such a high market value?</p><p>The answer is that the denominator has changed. And it's a huge change. Buffett mentioned in this shareholder letter that the yield of the ten-year Treasury Bond in the United States in the past ten years was less than 1%. Last year, it was only 0.5% at its lowest, and 40 years ago, this figure was 15%. Even five years ago, the yield on the 10-year Treasury Bond in the United States was close to 2.5%.</p><p>Anyone who has been in the third grade of primary school knows that the smaller the denominator, the greater the quotient without obvious change in the numerator.</p><p>If we have to say that the stock god's purchase of Apple is a value investment, it is also a value investment 1.0, that is, buying the bottom in a timely manner according to the idea of picking up cigarette butts. But in any case, this deal doesn't belong to Value Investing 2.0. After all, in terms of revenue and profit growth rate, Apple is considered slow among technology companies.</p><p>What I really want to thank is the Federal Reserve and Trump.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/052d0d3a6389985cf72883e9c3047ae4","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2117688834","content_text":"前几天巴菲特发布了一年一度的致股东信,苹果毫无悬念地再次成为伯克希尔旗下的第一重仓股,持仓市值达到1200亿美元,而2016年的买入成本是300亿美元。5年时间获得了三倍的账面收益(减持之后)。\n在净利润遭受重创的2020年,幸亏还有水果公司给伯克希尔撑撑门面。\n过去十年,对于很多中国价值投资者来说,如果有三家公司是他们心目中理想的标的,一定是茅台、腾讯和苹果。\n按照巴菲特的理念,所谓价值股就是一家具有护城河属性的公司被市场低估了。护城河不难理解,就是在某个市场具有垄断效应,比如茅台在高端白酒市场的影响力、腾讯在社交和游戏赛道的明显优势、苹果在高端手机市场的号召力。\n护城河的一个优势就是即使提价也不至于失去市场份额。茅台酒和苹果手机都是很明显的例子,这几年的售价一直在走高。\n关键是如何理解被低估,或者是如何给被低估的股票估值。\n价值投资的常用估值方法是现金流折现,用股东盈余除以一个合适的贴现率,就是公司的内在价值。反过来理解就是,你用一笔巨款买了长期国债,每年的利息收益就相当于是公司的股东盈余(一般接近净利润),而用利息收益除以利率,就是这笔巨款的真实数目,也就是公司的内在价值。\n所以,这套估值方法包含一个变量和一个常量:股东盈余是变量,贴现率(长期国债利率)是常量。\n巴菲特早年寻找被低估的股票时,更多的是考虑当时是否被低估,而不去关心是否还有成长性,俗称“捡烟头”。这类公司一般都是不太为人关注的小盘股,最终通过价格回归而不是价值增长达到合理估值区间。这个阶段可以称之为价值投资1.0。\n后来在芒格的影响下,开始寻找那些不仅被低估,而且未来还有巨大成长性的股票。这个转向标志着价值投资的重要分水岭:即从只是为了捡便宜转变为更加看重未来的赚钱能力。这个阶段可以称之为价值投资2.0。\n价值投资1.0与价值投资2.0不同之处在于,前者考虑的是当前被低估的股票,后者考虑的是未来被低估的股票。核心在于公司的赚钱能力(股东盈余)是不是持续增长。\n所以,股东盈余的增长就变成了对公司未来创造现金流能力的预测,比如根据公司净利润的增长情况,预测出未来十年一共能赚多少钱,除以10之后再除以一个贴现率就是公司真实的内在价值。\n可以看出,价值投资最难的是对公司赚钱能力的预测和估算,因为一般来说贴现率是死的,每年的净利润是活的。分母是静态的,分子是动态的。\n但过去五年,苹果市值的决定因素不是分子,而是分母!\n2016财年,苹果的营收是2100亿美元,净利润是450亿美元;2020财年,营收是2700亿美元,净利润是570亿美元。两个最能代表盈利能力的指标,增幅分别为28%和26%。\n再来看看同为消费股王者的茅台:2016财年营收是400亿人民币,2020年财报虽然还没出来,但900亿的营收应该问题不大;2016年净利润180亿人民币,去年的净利应该在500亿人民币左右。两个指标的增幅分别为125%和170%。\n茅台从2016年到2020年,市值增长了9倍;同一时期苹果市值增长了4倍多。但是,过去五年茅台的盈利能力翻倍了,而苹果的盈利增速只有30%以内(注意:不是每年增长30%,而是五年一共增长了30%)。苹果靠什么撑起了如此高的市值?\n答案是分母变了。而且是巨大的变化。巴菲特在这次的股东信中提到,最近十年美国十年期国债的收益率不到1%,去年最低时只有0.5%,而在40年前,这个数字是15%。即使五年前,美国十年期国债的收益率也是接近2.5%。\n读过小学三年级的人都知道,在分子无明显变化的情况下,分母越小商就越大。\n如果非要说股神对苹果的买进属于价值投资,那也是价值投资1.0,即按照捡烟头的思路适时抄底。但无论如何,这笔交易也不属于价值投资2.0。毕竟,就营收和利润增长速度来看,苹果在科技股公司中都算慢的了。\n真正要感谢的,是美联储,是特朗普。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1372,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":364788990,"gmtCreate":1614874278110,"gmtModify":1704776478661,"author":{"id":"3576476136293909","authorId":"3576476136293909","name":"小老二","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c4122726bb17be855a0fd1a62d04a04","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576476136293909","idStr":"3576476136293909"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"。。。。。。。","listText":"。。。。。。。","text":"。。。。。。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/364788990","repostId":"2116384520","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2116384520","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1614834257,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2116384520?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-04 13:04","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Increased production suspended? OPEC + 's silence is worrying","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2116384520","media":"金十数据","summary":"欧佩克+部长级会议将于今晚(3月4日)北京时间晚上21:00开始,届时欧佩克+将讨论是否增加产量的问题。然而,周三的初步谈判几乎没有透露它们是否会像市场预期的那样在4月份增加石油供应,这给今天的会议又","content":"<p>The OPEC + ministerial meeting will begin tonight (March 4) at 21:00 p.m. Beijing time, when OPEC + will discuss whether to increase production. However,<b>Wednesday's preliminary</b><b>Negotiate</b><b>Little is revealed whether they will be like</b><b>market</b><b>Increase oil supply in April as expected,</b>This adds some uncertainty to today's meeting,<b>It is beginning to doubt whether OPEC will increase production.</b></p><p>Saudi Arabia and Russia held bilateral talks on Wednesday to seek consensus, an OPEC representative said. Saudi Arabia urged all parties to tread cautiously, while Russia urged to increase oil production. While OPEC + is still widely expected to resume some production,<b>The preliminary ministerial meeting held on Wednesday did not give specific details.</b></p><p>The trend of oil prices in the coming months will depend on the outcome of the plenary meeting of OPEC and its allies on Thursday. If the group doesn't provide all the extra crude oil the market needs to drive the economy's recovery from the pandemic, crude oil prices are likely to continue higher.</p><p>Jinshi also mentioned earlier that the market generally expects OPEC + to increase production in April, and countries such as the United Arab Emirates also hinted at support for increasing production. At present, some institutions still insist that they will increase production.</p><p>Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst and co-founder of Energy Aspects, said,<b>OPEC + is likely to increase only a small percentage of production in April, and any production increase lower than previously expected \"should be considered as</b><b>Bullish</b><b>Signal \".</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RY\">Royal Bank of Canada</a>Helima Croft, chief commodities strategist at RBC Capital Markets,<b>Given Russia's demand for an increase in production, it is unlikely that OPEC will maintain production at current levels in April, with the most likely outcome being an increase of 500,000-1 million barrels per day.</b></p><p>While OPEC and ministers may not be giving clear signals, recent oil price trends suggest the market needs more supply. Brent crude oil has risen 24% this year.</p><p>However, the OPEC Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee held on Wednesday did not make recommendations on oil production, coupled with the support of several member countries to keep production unchanged in April. The views of some institutions have also become cautious. They believe that there is great uncertainty in this meeting and an agreement on increasing production may not necessarily be reached.</p><p>According to a Reuters report on Wednesday,<b>Three OPEC + sources have said that several OPEC + oil-producing countries currently support the idea of keeping April production unchanged.</b></p><p>In addition, the resurgence of geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East has also added more uncertainty to the oil market. Last week, Syria was attacked, and there was a counter-attack on Wednesday. On the 3rd local time, Assad Air Force Base in western Iraq was attacked by at least 10 rockets. U.S. troops and Iraqi armed forces are stationed in Assad Air Force Base. Earlier, the United States revisited the Kachouqi incident in 2018...</p><p>With<b>The situation in the Middle East is gradually tense, and the supply of oil is stable</b><b>Risk</b><b>Increased sex.</b>In this case, oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia may be more inclined to maintain the status quo.</p><p>Said Bob McNally, president of consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group and a former White House official,<b>From risk</b><b>manage</b><b>From a perspective, it seems that the trend of tightening supply should be maintained for a while longer, although this is a bit beyond market expectations.</b></p><p>Ed Morse, head of global commodity research at Citigroup, suggested,<b>Don't take OPEC's increase in production for granted. He has told</b><b>client</b><b>He will not in any way at this OPEC meeting</b><b>Investment</b><b>Crude oil, because there are so many uncertainties.</b></p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Increased production suspended? OPEC + 's silence is worrying</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIncreased production suspended? OPEC + 's silence is worrying\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-04 13:04</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The OPEC + ministerial meeting will begin tonight (March 4) at 21:00 p.m. Beijing time, when OPEC + will discuss whether to increase production. However,<b>Wednesday's preliminary</b><b>Negotiate</b><b>Little is revealed whether they will be like</b><b>market</b><b>Increase oil supply in April as expected,</b>This adds some uncertainty to today's meeting,<b>It is beginning to doubt whether OPEC will increase production.</b></p><p>Saudi Arabia and Russia held bilateral talks on Wednesday to seek consensus, an OPEC representative said. Saudi Arabia urged all parties to tread cautiously, while Russia urged to increase oil production. While OPEC + is still widely expected to resume some production,<b>The preliminary ministerial meeting held on Wednesday did not give specific details.</b></p><p>The trend of oil prices in the coming months will depend on the outcome of the plenary meeting of OPEC and its allies on Thursday. If the group doesn't provide all the extra crude oil the market needs to drive the economy's recovery from the pandemic, crude oil prices are likely to continue higher.</p><p>Jinshi also mentioned earlier that the market generally expects OPEC + to increase production in April, and countries such as the United Arab Emirates also hinted at support for increasing production. At present, some institutions still insist that they will increase production.</p><p>Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst and co-founder of Energy Aspects, said,<b>OPEC + is likely to increase only a small percentage of production in April, and any production increase lower than previously expected \"should be considered as</b><b>Bullish</b><b>Signal \".</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RY\">Royal Bank of Canada</a>Helima Croft, chief commodities strategist at RBC Capital Markets,<b>Given Russia's demand for an increase in production, it is unlikely that OPEC will maintain production at current levels in April, with the most likely outcome being an increase of 500,000-1 million barrels per day.</b></p><p>While OPEC and ministers may not be giving clear signals, recent oil price trends suggest the market needs more supply. Brent crude oil has risen 24% this year.</p><p>However, the OPEC Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee held on Wednesday did not make recommendations on oil production, coupled with the support of several member countries to keep production unchanged in April. The views of some institutions have also become cautious. They believe that there is great uncertainty in this meeting and an agreement on increasing production may not necessarily be reached.</p><p>According to a Reuters report on Wednesday,<b>Three OPEC + sources have said that several OPEC + oil-producing countries currently support the idea of keeping April production unchanged.</b></p><p>In addition, the resurgence of geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East has also added more uncertainty to the oil market. Last week, Syria was attacked, and there was a counter-attack on Wednesday. On the 3rd local time, Assad Air Force Base in western Iraq was attacked by at least 10 rockets. U.S. troops and Iraqi armed forces are stationed in Assad Air Force Base. Earlier, the United States revisited the Kachouqi incident in 2018...</p><p>With<b>The situation in the Middle East is gradually tense, and the supply of oil is stable</b><b>Risk</b><b>Increased sex.</b>In this case, oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia may be more inclined to maintain the status quo.</p><p>Said Bob McNally, president of consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group and a former White House official,<b>From risk</b><b>manage</b><b>From a perspective, it seems that the trend of tightening supply should be maintained for a while longer, although this is a bit beyond market expectations.</b></p><p>Ed Morse, head of global commodity research at Citigroup, suggested,<b>Don't take OPEC's increase in production for granted. He has told</b><b>client</b><b>He will not in any way at this OPEC meeting</b><b>Investment</b><b>Crude oil, because there are so many uncertainties.</b></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"http://global.eastmoney.com/a/202103041830203574_0.html\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3faadc006e67e6ac130a7b171f263b4d","relate_stocks":{"DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","USO":"美国原油ETF"},"source_url":"http://global.eastmoney.com/a/202103041830203574_0.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2116384520","content_text":"欧佩克+部长级会议将于今晚(3月4日)北京时间晚上21:00开始,届时欧佩克+将讨论是否增加产量的问题。然而,周三的初步谈判几乎没有透露它们是否会像市场预期的那样在4月份增加石油供应,这给今天的会议又增添了一些不确定性,令人开始怀疑欧佩克是否会增产。\n一名欧佩克代表表示,沙特和俄罗斯周三举行了双边会谈,寻求共识。沙特敦促各方谨慎行事,俄罗斯则敦促提高石油产量。尽管欧佩克+仍被广泛预期将恢复部分产量,但周三举行的部长级初步会议并没有给出具体细节。\n未来几个月的油价走势将取决于周四欧佩克及其盟国的全体会议的结果。如果该组织不能提供市场所需的所有额外原油,以推动经济从疫情中复苏,原油价格可能会继续走高。\n金十此前也提到,市场普遍预期欧佩克+会在4月份增加产量,阿联酋等国也暗示支持增产。目前仍有部分机构坚持认为会增产。\nEnergy Aspects首席石油分析师兼联合创始人Amrita Sen表示,欧佩克+ 4月份可能仅将提高很小一部分产量,任何低于此前预期产量增长“都应被视为看涨信号”。\n加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)首席大宗商品策略师赫利玛克罗夫特(Helima Croft)表示,鉴于俄罗斯要求增产,欧佩克+在4月将产量维持在目前水平的可能性很小,最有可能的结果是增产50-100万桶/日。\n虽然欧佩克和部长们可能没有给出明确的信号,但最近的油价趋势表明,市场需要更多的供应。布伦特原油今年累计上涨24%。\n不过,由于周三举行的欧佩克联合部长级监督委员会没有提出关于石油产量的建议,再加上几个成员国支持4月保持产量不变的意见。部分机构的观点也变得谨慎,他们认为,这次会议存在很大的不确定性,并不一定会就增产达成协议。\n根据路透周三的报道,已有三位欧佩克+消息人士表示,数个欧佩克+产油国目前支持维持4月产量不变的意见。\n此外,中东的地缘政治风云再起,也给油市增加了更多的不确定性。上周,叙利亚被袭,周三就出现了反袭击。当地时间3日,位于伊拉克西部的阿萨德空军基地遭到至少10枚火箭弹袭击,阿萨德空军基地内驻扎有美军和伊拉克武装部队。还有此前美国重提2018年的卡舒吉事件……\n随着中东局势逐渐紧张,石油稳定供应的风险性增加。在这种情况下,沙特等产油国可能会更加倾向于维持现状。\n咨询公司Rapidan Energy Group总裁、前白宫官员鲍勃·麦克纳利(Bob McNally)表示,从风险管理的角度来看,供应收紧的趋势似乎应该再维持一段时间,尽管这有点超出市场预期。\n花旗集团全球大宗商品研究主管Ed Morse建议,不要认为欧佩克的增产是理所当然的。他已经告诉客户,他不会在这次欧佩克会议上以任何方式投资原油,因为有太多的不确定因素。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DUG":0.9,"UCO":0.9,"UWTIF":0.9,"USO":0.9,"DWT":0.9,"DWTIF":0.9,"DDG":0.9,"SCO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1526,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":364819919,"gmtCreate":1614832401531,"gmtModify":1704775787823,"author":{"id":"3576476136293909","authorId":"3576476136293909","name":"小老二","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c4122726bb17be855a0fd1a62d04a04","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576476136293909","idStr":"3576476136293909"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"????","listText":"????","text":"????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/364819919","repostId":"2116256529","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2116256529","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1614829296,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2116256529?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-04 11:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Financial markets are \"hyperinflated\" and money printers have destroyed the value investing system","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2116256529","media":"西泽研究院","summary":"既然泡沫是货币宽松吹起来的,拐点还是要货币来决定","content":"<p>If hyperinflation is a crisis, the crisis has already happened. Crazy asset bubbles are essentially \"hyperinflation\" in financial markets. For some stocks, you could buy 1 share for 10 yuan in the past, but now you can only buy 0.01 shares.</p><p>Looking at the financial market from this perspective, there may be different views on the persistence of bubbles. Recently, there have been more and more short shouts and warnings in the market, but the bubble is still very tough, and the market is so magical. One thing to remember is that you have to tie the bell. Since the bubble was blown by monetary easing, the inflection point is still determined by currency.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b25907e6354eac6e4bbcb5004f80ff2\" tg-width=\"580\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>For the United States, the main body of leverage this time is almost entirely the government, which means that the main body of the bubble is the base currency-which is particularly in line with the monetary conditions of hyperinflation in history, that is, the Federal Reserve directly prints money instead of commercial banks. Generate credit. Of course, the current broad money M2 in the United States has also reached a record high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6576293af71557c0efb34ee9c17fdaf4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"821\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Why is the government's direct printing of money a typical feature of hyperinflation? This is because compared with commercial banks' lending to create money according to the risk control standards of the real economy, the government's direct printing of money is often only a distribution behavior rather than a production behavior, and will not be directly related to the value creation of the real economy. Therefore, it is not so much the magical market that makes value investing fail (in the context of the 2020 bull market, Buffett's company profits fell by 48%), but it is better to say that the money printers destroyed the value investing system.</p><p>Therefore, it is not so much a crazy asset bubble as a \"hyperinflation\" in the asset market.<b>More and more institutional investors are already comparing U.S. money printing in 2020 to the Weimar Republic at the beginning of the last century</b>This idea led to the crazy looting of Bitcoin. Looking at it from another angle, it is actually the crazy depreciation of the US dollar in the digital currency market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27075184ee3417e7ae71ffa1dff1463\" tg-width=\"423\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition to Bitcoin and the stock market, hyperinflation or<b>The collapse of fiat banknotes has spread to commodity markets,</b>Various raw materials such as steel, copper, PVC, and paper are skyrocketing. This is a very bad omen, which means that the hyperinflation of paper money will soon spread to the commodity market, forming a real macro event that will have a significant impact on the public.</p><p>It's just a matter of time-the transmission time lag between money and inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75cfaa56e67eddd9e5695b7444ea8637\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Yet money printers don't seem to be awakened-except for Chinese regulators. The attitude of China's regulators is very clear. Before the bubble collapses, they should be prepared to hedge the crisis in advance. The speech of Guo Shuqing, Chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, was inspiring:</p><p>The bubble could burst at any moment.</p><p>China's central bank has also remained awake, seemingly trying to nip fires in the bud. The Federal Reserve, on the other hand, has been in a \"drunk tango\" unwilling to wake up. Even exit signals such as soaring Treasury Bond yields, they selectively ignore, and can only say \"You can never wake up a person who pretends to sleep.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/279fb2ed29e72f1596cef3ca929f3bb6\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"562\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield jumped to 1.614% last week and fell 2.6 basis points to 1.396% on Tuesday.</p><p>Perhaps the Fed has no choice but to go to the dark. The money printers of the \"world dollar\" are always so willful. Perhaps it is printed that human beings will enter the ideal harmonious society of distribution according to needs. We all know everything is a bubble, but what's wrong with a bubble? Buddha said: All kinds of false appearances are like dream bubbles. Who can put down the money printing machine and become a Buddha on the ground?</p><p>The reason why Chinese regulators are determined is that they took the lead in controlling the epidemic and were lucky enough to become the only large-scale producer in the world during the period when the supply of the epidemic was limited. This is reflected in strong net exports representing external circulation.<b>Since the external circulation can support the whole circulation system, the real estate bubble representing the internal circulation can be seriously rectified</b>。 More importantly, under the dangerous situation that the Federal Reserve prints money without a bottom line and leads to a global currency flood, how to build a flood control levee to prevent international hot money from cutting leeks and bonus hunter.</p><p>At this time, don't talk about the free market, don't talk about respecting the commercial nature of capital, because when the central bank intervenes in the market so frantically, the market has already failed-the price signal of resource allocation is disordered, and it is better to speculate in real estate, Maotai and Bitcoin than to work hard in industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58ae7ae4a9757517357f79e8197ef4ec\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Bitcoin Whale Grayscale Fund, as of February this year, held Bitcoin with a market value of more than 20 billion US dollars, and continues to increase its positions</p><p>Therefore, the national financial capacity is particularly important at this time. It refers to the country's forward-looking systemic risk prevention and control ability, and the country's ability to use a country's financial strength to allocate resources to fight a tough battle against risks. Similar to the Hong Kong dollar defense war between the mainland and Hong Kong in 1997.</p><p>Because the epidemic continues, water continues to be released, and the hidden danger of floods is still very great. International hot money is like a bloodthirsty monster, looking for prey everywhere to satisfy the appetite for expected yields. The U.S. Treasury Department still has $1.5 trillion in cash on its account, followed by the just-passed $1.9 trillion stimulus and rescue plan. The deficit ratio has set a world record, and the MMT is just a cloth of shame. Once it is opened, you don't have to care about anything anymore.</p><p>What's more, at the crisis moment of the pandemic, all this is just, necessary and indispensable. Objectively speaking, we must affirm that in this epidemic crisis,<b>The \"savior\"-like ability of money printers in various countries</b>--Originally a world-class Great Depression and Great Crisis, the money printers miraculously turned the tide through money printing, and how many families and businesses were avoided unemployment and bankruptcy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ff8f63c8e4ea9561e0bb9330e033db7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But will it really always be so amazing? Can production be completely replaced by distribution? Can emergency antibiotics replace normal diet? The money printers are actually very sober, and they know that the next task may be more severe:</p><p>How to quit? How to return to normalization?</p><p>However, not everything is reversible. Monetary easing is dynamic and asymmetric, which means \"overwhelming water is hard to recover\" in layman's terms. The basis of micro-behavior is the \"ratchet effect\", that is, from poverty to wealth and from rich to poverty, from frugality to luxury and from luxury to frugality. These two processes are asymmetric. Monetary easing, asset bubbles, from the central bank to the market, will all produce huge irreversible path dependence. In layman's terms: addiction.</p><p>Theoretically, too much water is released,<b>Equilibrium pricing replaces entity equilibrium by monetary equilibrium</b>That is, all asset pricing models CAPM should be M-CAPM. This is also the reason why value investing fails.</p><p>Currency is uncertain and will randomly deviate from the physical value. Some scholars have compared money to quantum, and the wave-particle duality of assets and liabilities. But I think the consequences of M-CAPM, more importantly, push everything into the channel of behavioral finance, psychological finance and narrative economics. Quantum uncertainty state, position and velocity cannot be obtained at the same time. Schrodinger's cat, living and dying, rising and falling, depends on the observer.</p><p>At the same time, the central bank and the market are in an ambiguous state of quantum entanglement. The latter knows that the former does not dare to stop, while the former knows that the latter knows, and the latter knows that the former knows that the latter knows... Such superimposed beliefs are indeed lingering and sad. Sometimes it looks complex and fragile, and sometimes it looks extremely rigid. Therefore, at this time, don't use linear \"classical physics\" thinking to predict the market. As long as there are still inspiring voices in the market, the bubble will continue to exist.<b>It's just that there will be more huge fluctuations</b>。 The so-called self-realization of expectations will only occur when the inflection point has passed and the trend has been formed.</p><p>And the inflection point will only come at the climax of the carnival. And at that moment, there were no sober people, including you and me.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32e8cf6911277db9d974dd064e32f537\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"534\"><span>(Article source: Baidu)</span></p>","source":"lsy1582938116590","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Financial markets are \"hyperinflated\" and money printers have destroyed the value investing system</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFinancial markets are \"hyperinflated\" and money printers have destroyed the value investing system\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">西泽研究院</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-04 11:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>If hyperinflation is a crisis, the crisis has already happened. Crazy asset bubbles are essentially \"hyperinflation\" in financial markets. For some stocks, you could buy 1 share for 10 yuan in the past, but now you can only buy 0.01 shares.</p><p>Looking at the financial market from this perspective, there may be different views on the persistence of bubbles. Recently, there have been more and more short shouts and warnings in the market, but the bubble is still very tough, and the market is so magical. One thing to remember is that you have to tie the bell. Since the bubble was blown by monetary easing, the inflection point is still determined by currency.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b25907e6354eac6e4bbcb5004f80ff2\" tg-width=\"580\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>For the United States, the main body of leverage this time is almost entirely the government, which means that the main body of the bubble is the base currency-which is particularly in line with the monetary conditions of hyperinflation in history, that is, the Federal Reserve directly prints money instead of commercial banks. Generate credit. Of course, the current broad money M2 in the United States has also reached a record high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6576293af71557c0efb34ee9c17fdaf4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"821\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Why is the government's direct printing of money a typical feature of hyperinflation? This is because compared with commercial banks' lending to create money according to the risk control standards of the real economy, the government's direct printing of money is often only a distribution behavior rather than a production behavior, and will not be directly related to the value creation of the real economy. Therefore, it is not so much the magical market that makes value investing fail (in the context of the 2020 bull market, Buffett's company profits fell by 48%), but it is better to say that the money printers destroyed the value investing system.</p><p>Therefore, it is not so much a crazy asset bubble as a \"hyperinflation\" in the asset market.<b>More and more institutional investors are already comparing U.S. money printing in 2020 to the Weimar Republic at the beginning of the last century</b>This idea led to the crazy looting of Bitcoin. Looking at it from another angle, it is actually the crazy depreciation of the US dollar in the digital currency market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27075184ee3417e7ae71ffa1dff1463\" tg-width=\"423\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition to Bitcoin and the stock market, hyperinflation or<b>The collapse of fiat banknotes has spread to commodity markets,</b>Various raw materials such as steel, copper, PVC, and paper are skyrocketing. This is a very bad omen, which means that the hyperinflation of paper money will soon spread to the commodity market, forming a real macro event that will have a significant impact on the public.</p><p>It's just a matter of time-the transmission time lag between money and inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75cfaa56e67eddd9e5695b7444ea8637\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Yet money printers don't seem to be awakened-except for Chinese regulators. The attitude of China's regulators is very clear. Before the bubble collapses, they should be prepared to hedge the crisis in advance. The speech of Guo Shuqing, Chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, was inspiring:</p><p>The bubble could burst at any moment.</p><p>China's central bank has also remained awake, seemingly trying to nip fires in the bud. The Federal Reserve, on the other hand, has been in a \"drunk tango\" unwilling to wake up. Even exit signals such as soaring Treasury Bond yields, they selectively ignore, and can only say \"You can never wake up a person who pretends to sleep.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/279fb2ed29e72f1596cef3ca929f3bb6\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"562\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield jumped to 1.614% last week and fell 2.6 basis points to 1.396% on Tuesday.</p><p>Perhaps the Fed has no choice but to go to the dark. The money printers of the \"world dollar\" are always so willful. Perhaps it is printed that human beings will enter the ideal harmonious society of distribution according to needs. We all know everything is a bubble, but what's wrong with a bubble? Buddha said: All kinds of false appearances are like dream bubbles. Who can put down the money printing machine and become a Buddha on the ground?</p><p>The reason why Chinese regulators are determined is that they took the lead in controlling the epidemic and were lucky enough to become the only large-scale producer in the world during the period when the supply of the epidemic was limited. This is reflected in strong net exports representing external circulation.<b>Since the external circulation can support the whole circulation system, the real estate bubble representing the internal circulation can be seriously rectified</b>。 More importantly, under the dangerous situation that the Federal Reserve prints money without a bottom line and leads to a global currency flood, how to build a flood control levee to prevent international hot money from cutting leeks and bonus hunter.</p><p>At this time, don't talk about the free market, don't talk about respecting the commercial nature of capital, because when the central bank intervenes in the market so frantically, the market has already failed-the price signal of resource allocation is disordered, and it is better to speculate in real estate, Maotai and Bitcoin than to work hard in industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58ae7ae4a9757517357f79e8197ef4ec\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Bitcoin Whale Grayscale Fund, as of February this year, held Bitcoin with a market value of more than 20 billion US dollars, and continues to increase its positions</p><p>Therefore, the national financial capacity is particularly important at this time. It refers to the country's forward-looking systemic risk prevention and control ability, and the country's ability to use a country's financial strength to allocate resources to fight a tough battle against risks. Similar to the Hong Kong dollar defense war between the mainland and Hong Kong in 1997.</p><p>Because the epidemic continues, water continues to be released, and the hidden danger of floods is still very great. International hot money is like a bloodthirsty monster, looking for prey everywhere to satisfy the appetite for expected yields. The U.S. Treasury Department still has $1.5 trillion in cash on its account, followed by the just-passed $1.9 trillion stimulus and rescue plan. The deficit ratio has set a world record, and the MMT is just a cloth of shame. Once it is opened, you don't have to care about anything anymore.</p><p>What's more, at the crisis moment of the pandemic, all this is just, necessary and indispensable. Objectively speaking, we must affirm that in this epidemic crisis,<b>The \"savior\"-like ability of money printers in various countries</b>--Originally a world-class Great Depression and Great Crisis, the money printers miraculously turned the tide through money printing, and how many families and businesses were avoided unemployment and bankruptcy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ff8f63c8e4ea9561e0bb9330e033db7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But will it really always be so amazing? Can production be completely replaced by distribution? Can emergency antibiotics replace normal diet? The money printers are actually very sober, and they know that the next task may be more severe:</p><p>How to quit? How to return to normalization?</p><p>However, not everything is reversible. Monetary easing is dynamic and asymmetric, which means \"overwhelming water is hard to recover\" in layman's terms. The basis of micro-behavior is the \"ratchet effect\", that is, from poverty to wealth and from rich to poverty, from frugality to luxury and from luxury to frugality. These two processes are asymmetric. Monetary easing, asset bubbles, from the central bank to the market, will all produce huge irreversible path dependence. In layman's terms: addiction.</p><p>Theoretically, too much water is released,<b>Equilibrium pricing replaces entity equilibrium by monetary equilibrium</b>That is, all asset pricing models CAPM should be M-CAPM. This is also the reason why value investing fails.</p><p>Currency is uncertain and will randomly deviate from the physical value. Some scholars have compared money to quantum, and the wave-particle duality of assets and liabilities. But I think the consequences of M-CAPM, more importantly, push everything into the channel of behavioral finance, psychological finance and narrative economics. Quantum uncertainty state, position and velocity cannot be obtained at the same time. Schrodinger's cat, living and dying, rising and falling, depends on the observer.</p><p>At the same time, the central bank and the market are in an ambiguous state of quantum entanglement. The latter knows that the former does not dare to stop, while the former knows that the latter knows, and the latter knows that the former knows that the latter knows... Such superimposed beliefs are indeed lingering and sad. Sometimes it looks complex and fragile, and sometimes it looks extremely rigid. Therefore, at this time, don't use linear \"classical physics\" thinking to predict the market. As long as there are still inspiring voices in the market, the bubble will continue to exist.<b>It's just that there will be more huge fluctuations</b>。 The so-called self-realization of expectations will only occur when the inflection point has passed and the trend has been formed.</p><p>And the inflection point will only come at the climax of the carnival. And at that moment, there were no sober people, including you and me.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32e8cf6911277db9d974dd064e32f537\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"534\"><span>(Article source: Baidu)</span></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/sUiLnAl3Lmb-qLreSsijog\">西泽研究院</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3de21f83c1ccf91eaf03e7bb8a50c812","relate_stocks":{"PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","QQQ":"纳指100ETF"},"source_url":"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/sUiLnAl3Lmb-qLreSsijog","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2116256529","content_text":"如果说恶性通胀是一种危机,那么危机已经发生。疯狂的资产泡沫本质上就是金融市场上的“恶性通胀”。有的股票,过去10元能买到1股,现在只能买到0.01股。\n从这个角度看金融市场,对泡沫的持久度可能产生不一样的看法。最近市场上喊空的,提出警告的越来越多,但泡沫依旧很坚韧,市场就是这么魔性。要记住一点,解铃还须系铃人。既然泡沫是货币宽松吹起来的,拐点还是要货币来决定。\n\n对美国来说,这一次加杠杆的主体,几乎完全是政府,这就意味着催生泡沫的主体是基础货币——这特别符合历史上恶性通胀的货币条件,即美联储直接印钞而非商业银行产生信贷。当然,美国当前的广义货币M2也创历史新高。\n\n为什么政府直接印钞是恶性通胀的典型特征,这是因为与商业银行根据实体经济风控标准放贷创造货币相比,政府直接印钞往往只是一种分配行为而非生产行为,不会直接与实体经济的价值创造关联。因此,与其说是魔性的市场让价值投资失败(2020大牛市背景下,巴菲特的公司利润下降48%),不如说是印钞者们摧毁了价值投资体系。\n因此与其说是疯狂的资产泡沫,不如说是资产市场上的“恶性通胀”。已经有越来越多的机构投资者将美国2020年的印钞行为比做上世纪初的魏玛共和国,这个念头导致比特币被疯抢,换个角度看其实就是美元在数字货币市场上疯狂的贬值。\n\n除了比特币和股市外,恶性通胀或者说法定纸币的崩溃已经蔓延到了大宗商品市场,钢、铜、PVC、纸等各种原材料都在暴涨。这是一个很不好的兆头,这意味着纸币恶性通胀很快就蔓延到商品市场,形成真正的对社会大众产生重大影响的宏观事件。\n一切不过是时间问题——货币到通胀之间的传导时滞。\n\n然而印钞者们似乎还不觉醒——除了中国的监管者。中国监管层的态度非常明确,在泡沫崩溃以前,提前做好对冲危机的准备。银保监会主席郭树清的讲话振聋发聩:\n泡沫随时都可能破灭。\n中国的央行也一直保持清醒,似乎想把火灾防患于未然。而美联储则一直在“酒醉的探戈里”不愿醒来。就连国债收益率飙升这样的退场信号,他们都选择性忽视,只能说“你永远无法叫醒一个装睡的人”。\n\n10年期美债收益率上周曾跃升至1.614%,本周二下跌2.6个基点报1.396%\n或许美联储已经没了选择,只能一条道走到黑。“世界美元”的印钞者永远都是这么任性。或许印着印着人类就进入按需分配的理想大同社会。我们都知道一切都是泡沫,但泡沫有什么不好?佛曰:诸般妄相,如梦幻泡影。谁能放下印钞机,立地成佛?\n中国监管层之所以有定力,还是因为率先控制住了疫情,并有幸成为疫情供给受限时期全球唯一的大型生产者。这体现在强劲的代表外循环的净出口上。既然外循环可以支持整个循环体系,代表内循环的房地产泡沫就可以认真整治一下。更重要的一点是,在美联储无底线印钞导致全球货币大洪水的危险局势下,如何修筑防洪大堤来防止国际热钱游资割韭菜薅羊毛。\n此时不要谈自由市场,不要说尊重资本的商业本性,因为当央行如此疯狂介入市场,市场就已经失灵——资源配置的价格信号紊乱,辛辛苦苦干实业不如炒房炒茅台炒比特币。\n\n比特币巨鲸灰度基金,截止今年2月持有的比特币市值超过200亿美元,且还在持续加仓\n所以此时国家金融能力尤为重要。它是指国家前瞻性的系统性风险防控能力,国家动用一国金融力量配置资源打好防风险攻坚战的能力。类似1997年大陆与香港配合的港币保卫战。\n因为疫情不止,放水不息,洪水隐患依然很大,国际游资如嗜血的怪兽,四处寻找猎物以满足收益率预期的胃口。美国财政部账上还趴着1.5万亿美元现金,接下来还有刚通过的1.9万亿美元刺激和救助计划。赤字率已经创了世界纪录,MMT不过是一层遮羞的布,一旦打开就不用再在乎什么了。\n何况,在大疫情那个危机时刻,这一切都是正义的、必须的、不可不做的。客观的说,我们必须肯定这次疫情大危机中,各国印钞者的“救世主”般的能力——本来一场世界级的大萧条、大危机,却被印钞者们奇迹般的通过印钞力挽狂澜,多少家庭和企业免于失业和破产。\n\n然而真的一直会这么神奇吗?用分配手段就能完全替代生产?救急用的抗生素可以替代正常的饮食?印钞者们其实也都很清醒,他们知道接下来的任务可能更严峻:\n如何退出?如何回归正常化?\n然而并不是所有的东西是可逆的,货币宽松是动态非对称的,通俗的说就是“覆水难收”。微观行为的基础是“棘轮效应”,即从贫到富与从富到贫,由俭入奢和由奢入俭,这两个过程是不对称的。货币宽松,资产泡沫,从央行到市场,都是会产生巨大的不可逆的路径依赖。用通俗的话来说就是:上瘾。\n从理论上来看,放水放多了,均衡定价由货币均衡取代实体均衡,即所有的资产定价模型CAPM,都应该是M—CAPM。这也是导致价值投资失败的原因。\n货币是琢磨不定的,是会随机偏离实体价值的。已经有学者将货币比做量子,资产—负债的波粒二重性。但我认为M—CAPM产生的后果,更重要的是将一切推入行为金融学、心理金融学和叙事经济学的频道。量子测不准状态,无法同时得到位置和速度。薛定谔的猫,生和死、涨和跌,取决于观测者。\n同时,央行和市场之间处于一种量子纠缠的暧昧状态。后者知道前者不敢收手,而前者知道后者知道,后者又知道前者知道后者知道......如此叠加的信念,的确是缠绵悱恻。有时看上去复杂脆弱,有时又看上去刚性无比。因此此时,不要用线性的“经典物理学”的思维去预测市场。只要市场上还有振聋发聩的声音,泡沫就会继续存在下去,只是会多一些巨幅的波动。所谓预期的自我实现,只会在拐点已过趋势已经形成的时候。\n而拐点永远只会在狂欢最高潮的时候到来。而那一刻,没有清醒者,包括你和我。\n(文章图源:百度)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TQQQ":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"QID":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"QLD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1492,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":364810555,"gmtCreate":1614832340077,"gmtModify":1704775787338,"author":{"id":"3576476136293909","authorId":"3576476136293909","name":"小老二","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c4122726bb17be855a0fd1a62d04a04","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576476136293909","idStr":"3576476136293909"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"????","listText":"????","text":"????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/364810555","repostId":"1176697342","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1540,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":365266380,"gmtCreate":1614747358640,"gmtModify":1704774730180,"author":{"id":"3576476136293909","authorId":"3576476136293909","name":"小老二","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c4122726bb17be855a0fd1a62d04a04","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576476136293909","idStr":"3576476136293909"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"。。。。。。。。","listText":"。。。。。。。。","text":"。。。。。。。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/365266380","repostId":"1136108852","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1650,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":true}