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JPUA
JPUA
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2023-01-20
$NFLX 20230120 310.0 PUT$
$NFLX 20230120 310.0 PUT$
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JPUA
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2023-01-19
Gonna go down this week and rocket next week
Netflix Could Be in for a Very Rough Quarter, Analyst Warns
Streaming service is 'on a path' to add 2.7 million subscribers -- significantly less than the 4.5 m
Netflix Could Be in for a Very Rough Quarter, Analyst Warns
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JPUA
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2022-12-01
$Netflix(NFLX)$
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JPUA
JPUA
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2022-11-23
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$
Year end always goes up.. unless something big affects the whole economy
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JPUA
JPUA
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2022-11-10
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$
might as well
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JPUA
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2022-11-08
How low can it get
Palantir Technologies: Another One In Trouble
SummaryPalantir Technologies Inc. beat Q3 estimates and reiterated 2022 revenue guidance.However, Pa
Palantir Technologies: Another One In Trouble
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JPUA
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2022-11-08
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$
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JPUA
JPUA
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2022-11-07
$S&P 500(.SPX)$
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JPUA
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2022-10-05
spy
SPY: Is It Worth It To Buy Puts Now?
SummaryThe bear market in the S&P 500 continues.Volatility remains elevated as investors scramble to
SPY: Is It Worth It To Buy Puts Now?
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JPUA
JPUA
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2022-06-29
yes
Sorry, this post has been deleted
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href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/NFLX 20230120 310.0 PUT\">$NFLX 20230120 310.0 PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/NFLX 20230120 310.0 PUT\">$NFLX 20230120 310.0 PUT$ </a> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/NFLX 20230120 310.0 PUT\">$NFLX 20230120 310.0 PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/NFLX 20230120 310.0 PUT\">$NFLX 20230120 310.0 PUT$ </a> ","text":"$NFLX 20230120 310.0 PUT$ $NFLX 20230120 310.0 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service is 'on a path' to add 2.7 million subscribers -- significantly less than the 4.5 million the company has projected, Barclays analyst says</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aff2b91d75bb49b0e8ff2d252c563d10\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"486\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Netflix Inc. is scheduled to announce fiscal fourth-quarter results on Jan. 19. NETFLIX INC.</span></p><p>Netflix Inc. is likely to fall dramatically short of its projected subscriber additions when it reports fiscal fourth-quarter results next week, a financial analyst warned on Tuesday.</p><p>Barclays analyst Kannan Venkateshwar cautioned that Netflix (NFLX) is "on a path" to add 2.7 million subscribers -- significantly less than the 4.5 million the company has projected. A drop in app downloads, compounded by a plunge in viewership from last year's record audiences for "Squid Game," account for the subscriber shortfall, he said.</p><p>A miss on net subscription additions would snap a brief rebound for Netflix. In October, the company said it added more than 2 million subscribers in the third quarter after stumbling into 2022 with two consecutive quarterly subscriber declines. (Starting this quarter, Netflix will stop offering forecasts of net subscriber adds, which have proved to be the one factor with the greatest influence on stock movement in recent years.)</p><p>Given Netflix's quick pivot to a lower-priced advertising-supported subscription tier, as well as its planned crackdown on shared accounts, the company will shift its guidance -- and emphasis-- to revenue, net income, earnings per share, operating income, operating margin and shares outstanding.</p><p>Analysts polled by FactSet are expecting Netflix to report $7.83 billion in revenue and adjusted earnings of 64 cents a share in the fourth quarter. In the same quarter a year ago, the company reported $7.71 billion in revenue and earnings of $607 million, or $1.33 a share.</p><p>Still, Venkateshwar cautioned that without reporting net subscriber additions and with a shift to an ad-supported plan in lieu of more expensive options, Netflix's stock could face increasing volatility.</p><p>Netflix shares closed higher 3.9% on Tuesday and rallied 11% this year. The broader S&P 500 has inched up 2% so far in 2023.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Netflix Could Be in for a Very Rough Quarter, Analyst Warns</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNetflix Could Be in for a Very Rough Quarter, Analyst Warns\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-01-11 08:47</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Streaming service is 'on a path' to add 2.7 million subscribers -- significantly less than the 4.5 million the company has projected, Barclays analyst says</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aff2b91d75bb49b0e8ff2d252c563d10\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"486\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Netflix Inc. is scheduled to announce fiscal fourth-quarter results on Jan. 19. NETFLIX INC.</span></p><p>Netflix Inc. is likely to fall dramatically short of its projected subscriber additions when it reports fiscal fourth-quarter results next week, a financial analyst warned on Tuesday.</p><p>Barclays analyst Kannan Venkateshwar cautioned that Netflix (NFLX) is "on a path" to add 2.7 million subscribers -- significantly less than the 4.5 million the company has projected. A drop in app downloads, compounded by a plunge in viewership from last year's record audiences for "Squid Game," account for the subscriber shortfall, he said.</p><p>A miss on net subscription additions would snap a brief rebound for Netflix. In October, the company said it added more than 2 million subscribers in the third quarter after stumbling into 2022 with two consecutive quarterly subscriber declines. (Starting this quarter, Netflix will stop offering forecasts of net subscriber adds, which have proved to be the one factor with the greatest influence on stock movement in recent years.)</p><p>Given Netflix's quick pivot to a lower-priced advertising-supported subscription tier, as well as its planned crackdown on shared accounts, the company will shift its guidance -- and emphasis-- to revenue, net income, earnings per share, operating income, operating margin and shares outstanding.</p><p>Analysts polled by FactSet are expecting Netflix to report $7.83 billion in revenue and adjusted earnings of 64 cents a share in the fourth quarter. In the same quarter a year ago, the company reported $7.71 billion in revenue and earnings of $607 million, or $1.33 a share.</p><p>Still, Venkateshwar cautioned that without reporting net subscriber additions and with a shift to an ad-supported plan in lieu of more expensive options, Netflix's stock could face increasing volatility.</p><p>Netflix shares closed higher 3.9% on Tuesday and rallied 11% this year. The broader S&P 500 has inched up 2% so far in 2023.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4527":"明星科技股","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","LU1823568750.SGD":"Fidelity Global Technology A-ACC SGD","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4524":"宅经济概念","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","BK4108":"电影和娱乐","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU1046421795.USD":"富达环球科技A-ACC","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","NFLX":"奈飞","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","BK4581":"高盛持仓"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2302016055","content_text":"Streaming service is 'on a path' to add 2.7 million subscribers -- significantly less than the 4.5 million the company has projected, Barclays analyst saysNetflix Inc. is scheduled to announce fiscal fourth-quarter results on Jan. 19. NETFLIX INC.Netflix Inc. is likely to fall dramatically short of its projected subscriber additions when it reports fiscal fourth-quarter results next week, a financial analyst warned on Tuesday.Barclays analyst Kannan Venkateshwar cautioned that Netflix (NFLX) is \"on a path\" to add 2.7 million subscribers -- significantly less than the 4.5 million the company has projected. A drop in app downloads, compounded by a plunge in viewership from last year's record audiences for \"Squid Game,\" account for the subscriber shortfall, he said.A miss on net subscription additions would snap a brief rebound for Netflix. In October, the company said it added more than 2 million subscribers in the third quarter after stumbling into 2022 with two consecutive quarterly subscriber declines. (Starting this quarter, Netflix will stop offering forecasts of net subscriber adds, which have proved to be the one factor with the greatest influence on stock movement in recent years.)Given Netflix's quick pivot to a lower-priced advertising-supported subscription tier, as well as its planned crackdown on shared accounts, the company will shift its guidance -- and emphasis-- to revenue, net income, earnings per share, operating income, operating margin and shares outstanding.Analysts polled by FactSet are expecting Netflix to report $7.83 billion in revenue and adjusted earnings of 64 cents a share in the fourth quarter. In the same quarter a year ago, the company reported $7.71 billion in revenue and earnings of $607 million, or $1.33 a share.Still, Venkateshwar cautioned that without reporting net subscriber additions and with a shift to an ad-supported plan in lieu of more expensive options, Netflix's stock could face increasing volatility.Netflix shares closed higher 3.9% on Tuesday and rallied 11% this year. The broader S&P 500 has inched up 2% so far in 2023.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NFLX":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1920,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9965913656,"gmtCreate":1669870127875,"gmtModify":1676538260562,"author":{"id":"3576506250433896","authorId":"3576506250433896","name":"JPUA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21bdd967fd1168252977dd837b1b7990","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576506250433896","authorIdStr":"3576506250433896"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NFLX\">$Netflix(NFLX)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NFLX\">$Netflix(NFLX)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$Netflix(NFLX)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965913656","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2374,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9968690703,"gmtCreate":1669198220202,"gmtModify":1676538166153,"author":{"id":"3576506250433896","authorId":"3576506250433896","name":"JPUA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21bdd967fd1168252977dd837b1b7990","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576506250433896","authorIdStr":"3576506250433896"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Year end always goes up.. unless something big affects the whole economy ","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Year end always goes up.. unless something big affects the whole economy ","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Year end always goes up.. unless something big affects the whole economy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968690703","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1770,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9960977069,"gmtCreate":1668054981851,"gmtModify":1676538005714,"author":{"id":"3576506250433896","authorId":"3576506250433896","name":"JPUA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21bdd967fd1168252977dd837b1b7990","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576506250433896","authorIdStr":"3576506250433896"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>might as well","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>might as well","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ might as well","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9960977069","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1889,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9987284850,"gmtCreate":1667920540070,"gmtModify":1676537984994,"author":{"id":"3576506250433896","authorId":"3576506250433896","name":"JPUA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21bdd967fd1168252977dd837b1b7990","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576506250433896","authorIdStr":"3576506250433896"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"How low can it get","listText":"How low can it get","text":"How low can it get","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9987284850","repostId":"1188013809","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188013809","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1667921719,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1188013809?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-08 23:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Technologies: Another One In Trouble","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188013809","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryPalantir Technologies Inc. beat Q3 estimates and reiterated 2022 revenue guidance.However, Pa","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Palantir Technologies Inc. beat Q3 estimates and reiterated 2022 revenue guidance.</li><li>However, Palantir's Q4 YoY revenue growth is expected to slow to 16%.</li><li>This seems quite aggressive compared to management's goal of growing Palantir into a $4.5-billion business by 2025.</li><li>As usual, Palantir profitability remains non-existent thanks to the wildly generous stock-based compensation that dilutes shareholder interest.</li><li>Avoid Palantir stock at all costs.</li></ul><p><b>Palantir Q3 results and Q4 outlook were both in line with expectations</b></p><p>Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:PLTR)reported 3Q22revenue of $478 million (+22% YoY), which beat $474 million consensus, while adjusted operating margin of 17% also compared favorably against 11.7% consensus. In Q3, total contract value increased to $1.3 billion and customer count grew 66% YoY. Despite the slower 23% YoY growth in U.S. government revenue, U.S. commercial revenue grew 53% YoY, while the commercial client base increased 124% YoY to 132 customers. Adjusted free cash flow (AFCF) was $37 million in Q3 for an adjusted FCF margin of 7.7%. Management was proud to highlight that this was the 8th consecutive quarter of positive AFCF.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/151320348f53f214f03305b0df96ffa7\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"632\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>ConsensusGuru</p><p>For Q4, management expects revenue of $504 million at the midpoint (+16% YoY) vs. $506 million consensus. This includes a $5 million FX impact, which seems rather minimal compared to most tech companies that derive a substantial portion of revenues from overseas. Palantir's revenue is largely U.S.-based, hence it is relatively safe from FX headwinds. Q4 adj. operating income is expected to be $79 million at the midpoint, implying an adj. EBIT margin of 15.7% vs. 12.4% consensus.</p><p>While most companies are either reducing outlooks or not providing forward guidance, Palantir actually reiterated its full year 2022 revenue guidance of $1.9 billion, including a small $6 million impact from FX headwinds. On the surface, nothing that Palantir said was out of the ordinary, as Q3 results and Q4 outlook were mostly in-line with expectations.</p><p><b>But why doesn't the market care?</b></p><p>Shares of Palantir are down 11% despite the company just delivered everything the Street asked for. Why is this happening? The first issue is that investors are uncertain as to how to value the stock given top-line growth is expected to moderate to 16% in Q4 from 22%/26%/31% in Q3/Q2/Q1. Remember that one year ago, Palantir was a company growing its quarterly revenue at well over 40% YoY in an environment where GAAP (growth at any price) was the dominant theme for the investment community. This is no longer the case as the Fed has said many times that rates will stay high until inflation drops to the 2% policy target.</p><p>The recent post-earnings price action (-18%) from another high flyer like Cloudflare, Inc. (NET) has also introduced a spillover effect on many fast-growing yet unprofitable names like Palantir. When earnings are non-existent, there's really no way of judging the potential price levels at which markets will find valuation support when top-line growth slows down.</p><p>This is where Palantir's history of zero (or negative) profitability becomes a major problem, as the company has struggled to make money over the past 19 years. While management talked about terms like adjusted operating margin and free cash flow, these figures appear positive only because management wants analysts to add back a list of financial shenanigans. Stock-based compensation (SBC) is the magic number that could make the company "profitable."</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16e0caa3f6a7da73bf0d90d4b55b7fda\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Company data</p><p>In the first 9 months of 2022, Palantir's reported an actual loss from operations of $143 million (-10% EBIT margin) and net loss of over $400 million (-29% net margin). However, if we simply add back the $450 million in stock-based compensation plus the associated payroll taxes, Palantir is suddenly profitable, with an adjusted operating income of $306 million (22% adj. EBIT margin). Evidently, markets are done with this trick, and it doesn't require much for investors to understand that SBC is arguably the best way to dilute their financial interest in any business.</p><p><b>What to do with the stock?</b></p><p>Avoid Palantir at all costs. I maintain my Sell rating following my last article published in September. This is a structurally unprofitable business that will do investors more harm than good despite how massive the TAM (total addressable market) may be. The company offers mission-critical software for the U.S. government and corporations in the private sector, but at the end of the day, investors are unlikely to get excited if these activities cannot be carried out at a profit. Let's also not forget that the CEO's ambition is to reach $4.5 billion in revenue by 2025, implying a 33% CAGR for Palantir in the next 3 years after 2022.</p><p>With Palantir growth decelerating to just 16% in 4Q22 and potential uncertainty in federal spending in 2023, it'll be a painful process when expectations receive further adjustments to come in line with reality.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Technologies: Another One In Trouble</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Technologies: Another One In Trouble\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-08 23:35 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4554332-palantir-technologies-another-one-in-trouble><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryPalantir Technologies Inc. beat Q3 estimates and reiterated 2022 revenue guidance.However, Palantir's Q4 YoY revenue growth is expected to slow to 16%.This seems quite aggressive compared to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4554332-palantir-technologies-another-one-in-trouble\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4554332-palantir-technologies-another-one-in-trouble","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188013809","content_text":"SummaryPalantir Technologies Inc. beat Q3 estimates and reiterated 2022 revenue guidance.However, Palantir's Q4 YoY revenue growth is expected to slow to 16%.This seems quite aggressive compared to management's goal of growing Palantir into a $4.5-billion business by 2025.As usual, Palantir profitability remains non-existent thanks to the wildly generous stock-based compensation that dilutes shareholder interest.Avoid Palantir stock at all costs.Palantir Q3 results and Q4 outlook were both in line with expectationsPalantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:PLTR)reported 3Q22revenue of $478 million (+22% YoY), which beat $474 million consensus, while adjusted operating margin of 17% also compared favorably against 11.7% consensus. In Q3, total contract value increased to $1.3 billion and customer count grew 66% YoY. Despite the slower 23% YoY growth in U.S. government revenue, U.S. commercial revenue grew 53% YoY, while the commercial client base increased 124% YoY to 132 customers. Adjusted free cash flow (AFCF) was $37 million in Q3 for an adjusted FCF margin of 7.7%. Management was proud to highlight that this was the 8th consecutive quarter of positive AFCF.ConsensusGuruFor Q4, management expects revenue of $504 million at the midpoint (+16% YoY) vs. $506 million consensus. This includes a $5 million FX impact, which seems rather minimal compared to most tech companies that derive a substantial portion of revenues from overseas. Palantir's revenue is largely U.S.-based, hence it is relatively safe from FX headwinds. Q4 adj. operating income is expected to be $79 million at the midpoint, implying an adj. EBIT margin of 15.7% vs. 12.4% consensus.While most companies are either reducing outlooks or not providing forward guidance, Palantir actually reiterated its full year 2022 revenue guidance of $1.9 billion, including a small $6 million impact from FX headwinds. On the surface, nothing that Palantir said was out of the ordinary, as Q3 results and Q4 outlook were mostly in-line with expectations.But why doesn't the market care?Shares of Palantir are down 11% despite the company just delivered everything the Street asked for. Why is this happening? The first issue is that investors are uncertain as to how to value the stock given top-line growth is expected to moderate to 16% in Q4 from 22%/26%/31% in Q3/Q2/Q1. Remember that one year ago, Palantir was a company growing its quarterly revenue at well over 40% YoY in an environment where GAAP (growth at any price) was the dominant theme for the investment community. This is no longer the case as the Fed has said many times that rates will stay high until inflation drops to the 2% policy target.The recent post-earnings price action (-18%) from another high flyer like Cloudflare, Inc. (NET) has also introduced a spillover effect on many fast-growing yet unprofitable names like Palantir. When earnings are non-existent, there's really no way of judging the potential price levels at which markets will find valuation support when top-line growth slows down.This is where Palantir's history of zero (or negative) profitability becomes a major problem, as the company has struggled to make money over the past 19 years. While management talked about terms like adjusted operating margin and free cash flow, these figures appear positive only because management wants analysts to add back a list of financial shenanigans. Stock-based compensation (SBC) is the magic number that could make the company \"profitable.\"Company dataIn the first 9 months of 2022, Palantir's reported an actual loss from operations of $143 million (-10% EBIT margin) and net loss of over $400 million (-29% net margin). However, if we simply add back the $450 million in stock-based compensation plus the associated payroll taxes, Palantir is suddenly profitable, with an adjusted operating income of $306 million (22% adj. EBIT margin). Evidently, markets are done with this trick, and it doesn't require much for investors to understand that SBC is arguably the best way to dilute their financial interest in any business.What to do with the stock?Avoid Palantir at all costs. I maintain my Sell rating following my last article published in September. This is a structurally unprofitable business that will do investors more harm than good despite how massive the TAM (total addressable market) may be. The company offers mission-critical software for the U.S. government and corporations in the private sector, but at the end of the day, investors are unlikely to get excited if these activities cannot be carried out at a profit. Let's also not forget that the CEO's ambition is to reach $4.5 billion in revenue by 2025, implying a 33% CAGR for Palantir in the next 3 years after 2022.With Palantir growth decelerating to just 16% in 4Q22 and potential uncertainty in federal spending in 2023, it'll be a painful process when expectations receive further adjustments to come in line with reality.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2418,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9987285430,"gmtCreate":1667920467421,"gmtModify":1676537984936,"author":{"id":"3576506250433896","authorId":"3576506250433896","name":"JPUA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21bdd967fd1168252977dd837b1b7990","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576506250433896","authorIdStr":"3576506250433896"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9987285430","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2114,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9987374374,"gmtCreate":1667834731098,"gmtModify":1676537971719,"author":{"id":"3576506250433896","authorId":"3576506250433896","name":"JPUA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21bdd967fd1168252977dd837b1b7990","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576506250433896","authorIdStr":"3576506250433896"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$S&P 500(.SPX)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$S&P 500(.SPX)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$S&P 500(.SPX)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9987374374","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1981,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9915325958,"gmtCreate":1664965958375,"gmtModify":1676537536664,"author":{"id":"3576506250433896","authorId":"3576506250433896","name":"JPUA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21bdd967fd1168252977dd837b1b7990","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576506250433896","authorIdStr":"3576506250433896"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"spy","listText":"spy","text":"spy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9915325958","repostId":"1138224911","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1138224911","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1664946069,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1138224911?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-05 13:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"SPY: Is It Worth It To Buy Puts Now?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138224911","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThe bear market in the S&P 500 continues.Volatility remains elevated as investors scramble to","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>The bear market in the S&P 500 continues.</li><li>Volatility remains elevated as investors scramble to hedge their portfolios.</li><li>The herd mentality is in full display with the past weeks having seen record amount of put purchases.</li><li>We explore in this article the payoff profiles of certain put options on the S&P 500 and alternatives.</li></ul><p>Thesis</p><p>The bear market in the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) continues unabated, even though we are in the midst of another bear market rally. Weaker than expected US ISM Manufacturing (50.9 vs. 52.0 expected) and the U-turn in UK fiscal policy have triggered the latest rally, in a classic example of bad news is good news. Ultimately, the market will go towards fair value, as defined by its P/E ratio. Where the bottom lies in the index is as much dependent on the Earnings component as it is on the P/E de-rating:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8d1cab7ce0f8412e3abf5bb58c13706\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>S&P 500 P/E Ratio (Alliance Bernstein)</span></p><p>We are of the opinion that we are moving towards the long-term average of 15x P/E ratio, with a -5% to -10% revision down in earnings. That should move the Index to the low 3000s levels.</p><p>If an investor is in agreement that we are heading lower, then there are a couple of alternatives available:</p><p>1) Liquidate all holdings and stay only in cash (it is yielding over 3% now, hence the new moniker TARA)</p><p>2) Hedge the portfolio via inverse ETFs</p><p>3) Buy puts</p><p>Investors are well aware of the current market dynamics with put buying at historic record levels:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77978d3aafc15a790fb5e9f0771025f7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>The upper part of the graph shows the amount spent of buying puts - please notice the historic spike up in the graph, while the lower part of the graph is premium spent on calls. Please note that during 2021 when TINA was in vogue the line was sky-high, while currently it has virtually collapsed. This translates into investors basically believing there is little upside in the market now, hence "why spend cash on calls?" type of mind-sets.</p><p>Current Options Pricing</p><p>Let us have a look at how the pricing looks like for certain maturities:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6e1867749744c17c77fa767474020f5\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"198\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>The most important aspect for options pricing is volatility, which is now elevated:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24e4d10b819a964a93f6ee0dd072bce5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"518\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>VIX Levels (Investing.com)</span></p><p>Elevated volatility results in expensive options when an investor buys them. Rates have become a more relevant component as well, but for shorter dated options they represent the second most important factor.</p><p>If we have a look at Table 1, we have highlighted in a simple fashion the maturity pay-off profiles of current S&P 500 put options. This presents the profit and loss upon maturity with an implied S&P 500 target of 3,300. By subtracting the cost of the option, we can see the break-even price (basically where the S&P 500 needs to be in order for an investor not to lose money). The most interesting aspect is the "downside protection" column, which gives us a sense of how much of the down move is hedged via put purchases.</p><p>We can see that given high implied volatility, the December puts only offer a 49% downside protection (i.e. if you bought the December puts now and the S&P 500 went to 3,300 on expiry you would only make 49% on your option) while the front ended one in October gives an investor a 74% coverage.</p><h3>Put Mark-to-Market Volatility</h3><p>Let us also have a look at the November 18 360 strike puts and get a sense of how the mark-to-market would look like (the analysis is run utilizing a binomial options pricing methodology):</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1be01e96767b5cf22eb897dd501e7f59\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Table 2 - MtM Volatility (Author)</p><p>In the tables above we took the current pricing on the Nov 18 360 strike SPY put and ran several price and maturity simulations to get a sense of how much protection the put offers. We can see that the breakeven upon maturity needs a market loss of at least -3% from current levels, and the pay-off profile generally accelerates after a -6% move.</p><p>The current pricing needs a significant front-ended drop for the options to be profitable. For example, if the S&P 500 moves to 3,300 by the end of October, then the put option offers a 183% pay-off (i.e. the premium moves from 10.8 to 30.7, which results in a gain of 19.87 per contract). Conversely, if the price stays at 360 the profit and loss is -19% due to the option decay.</p><p>Let us marry up Table 1 with Table 2 to better understand the downside protection offered:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fe498f0d2131fbd58d941909e2f043a\" tg-width=\"465\" tg-height=\"112\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Table 3 (Author)</p><p>If we have a portfolio entirely invested in the S&P 500 and a $360k notional, then a move to 3,300 would generate a loss around -30k which would be offset by a gain of 19k from the 10 contracts bought above. Hence, the portfolio loss would not be entirely covered, only 64% of the downside move. The reason for this coverage is the expensive options pricing.</p><h3>Conclusion</h3><p>The S&P 500 is on a down-trend, with many analysts expecting ultimate pricing in the low 3,000s. The index is experiencing both a P/E de-rating as well as a re-set on the earnings forecast. Current market pricing makes puts expensive, with 1- and 3-months puts currently priced to offer only 74% and 49% downside protection respectively. A retail investor buying puts at current levels needs an exponential gap-down (above -6%) in the next 40 days in order to be significantly profitable on the options, with the caveat that the options will only partially protect the investor's portfolios. Inverse ETFs are also an alternative in the current environment, but the pay-off profile is significantly different, with the losses uncapped if the market rallies.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SPY: Is It Worth It To Buy Puts Now?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSPY: Is It Worth It To Buy Puts Now?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-05 13:01 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544590-spy-worth-buy-puts-now><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe bear market in the S&P 500 continues.Volatility remains elevated as investors scramble to hedge their portfolios.The herd mentality is in full display with the past weeks having seen record...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544590-spy-worth-buy-puts-now\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544590-spy-worth-buy-puts-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138224911","content_text":"SummaryThe bear market in the S&P 500 continues.Volatility remains elevated as investors scramble to hedge their portfolios.The herd mentality is in full display with the past weeks having seen record amount of put purchases.We explore in this article the payoff profiles of certain put options on the S&P 500 and alternatives.ThesisThe bear market in the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) continues unabated, even though we are in the midst of another bear market rally. Weaker than expected US ISM Manufacturing (50.9 vs. 52.0 expected) and the U-turn in UK fiscal policy have triggered the latest rally, in a classic example of bad news is good news. Ultimately, the market will go towards fair value, as defined by its P/E ratio. Where the bottom lies in the index is as much dependent on the Earnings component as it is on the P/E de-rating:S&P 500 P/E Ratio (Alliance Bernstein)We are of the opinion that we are moving towards the long-term average of 15x P/E ratio, with a -5% to -10% revision down in earnings. That should move the Index to the low 3000s levels.If an investor is in agreement that we are heading lower, then there are a couple of alternatives available:1) Liquidate all holdings and stay only in cash (it is yielding over 3% now, hence the new moniker TARA)2) Hedge the portfolio via inverse ETFs3) Buy putsInvestors are well aware of the current market dynamics with put buying at historic record levels:The upper part of the graph shows the amount spent of buying puts - please notice the historic spike up in the graph, while the lower part of the graph is premium spent on calls. Please note that during 2021 when TINA was in vogue the line was sky-high, while currently it has virtually collapsed. This translates into investors basically believing there is little upside in the market now, hence \"why spend cash on calls?\" type of mind-sets.Current Options PricingLet us have a look at how the pricing looks like for certain maturities:The most important aspect for options pricing is volatility, which is now elevated:VIX Levels (Investing.com)Elevated volatility results in expensive options when an investor buys them. Rates have become a more relevant component as well, but for shorter dated options they represent the second most important factor.If we have a look at Table 1, we have highlighted in a simple fashion the maturity pay-off profiles of current S&P 500 put options. This presents the profit and loss upon maturity with an implied S&P 500 target of 3,300. By subtracting the cost of the option, we can see the break-even price (basically where the S&P 500 needs to be in order for an investor not to lose money). The most interesting aspect is the \"downside protection\" column, which gives us a sense of how much of the down move is hedged via put purchases.We can see that given high implied volatility, the December puts only offer a 49% downside protection (i.e. if you bought the December puts now and the S&P 500 went to 3,300 on expiry you would only make 49% on your option) while the front ended one in October gives an investor a 74% coverage.Put Mark-to-Market VolatilityLet us also have a look at the November 18 360 strike puts and get a sense of how the mark-to-market would look like (the analysis is run utilizing a binomial options pricing methodology):Table 2 - MtM Volatility (Author)In the tables above we took the current pricing on the Nov 18 360 strike SPY put and ran several price and maturity simulations to get a sense of how much protection the put offers. We can see that the breakeven upon maturity needs a market loss of at least -3% from current levels, and the pay-off profile generally accelerates after a -6% move.The current pricing needs a significant front-ended drop for the options to be profitable. For example, if the S&P 500 moves to 3,300 by the end of October, then the put option offers a 183% pay-off (i.e. the premium moves from 10.8 to 30.7, which results in a gain of 19.87 per contract). Conversely, if the price stays at 360 the profit and loss is -19% due to the option decay.Let us marry up Table 1 with Table 2 to better understand the downside protection offered:Table 3 (Author)If we have a portfolio entirely invested in the S&P 500 and a $360k notional, then a move to 3,300 would generate a loss around -30k which would be offset by a gain of 19k from the 10 contracts bought above. Hence, the portfolio loss would not be entirely covered, only 64% of the downside move. The reason for this coverage is the expensive options pricing.ConclusionThe S&P 500 is on a down-trend, with many analysts expecting ultimate pricing in the low 3,000s. The index is experiencing both a P/E de-rating as well as a re-set on the earnings forecast. Current market pricing makes puts expensive, with 1- and 3-months puts currently priced to offer only 74% and 49% downside protection respectively. A retail investor buying puts at current levels needs an exponential gap-down (above -6%) in the next 40 days in order to be significantly profitable on the options, with the caveat that the options will only partially protect the investor's portfolios. Inverse ETFs are also an alternative in the current environment, but the pay-off profile is significantly different, with the losses uncapped if the market rallies.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1486,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9042587590,"gmtCreate":1656500016410,"gmtModify":1676535841018,"author":{"id":"3576506250433896","authorId":"3576506250433896","name":"JPUA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21bdd967fd1168252977dd837b1b7990","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576506250433896","authorIdStr":"3576506250433896"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"yes","listText":"yes","text":"yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9042587590","repostId":"2247564800","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2426,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}