Profile - To The Moon

JPUA

Posts · 25Posts · 25
Following · 0Following · 0
Followers · 0Followers · 0

- JPUAJPUA
  ·2023-01-20
  $NFLX 20230120 310.0 PUT$ $NFLX 20230120 310.0 PUT$
  354 Comment
  2
  Share
  Report
- JPUAJPUA
  ·2023-01-19
  Gonna go down this week and rocket next week
  Netflix Could Be in for a Very Rough Quarter, Analyst Warns
  Streaming service is 'on a path' to add 2.7 million subscribers -- significantly less than the 4.5 m
  Netflix Could Be in for a Very Rough Quarter, Analyst Warns
  341 Comment
  Like
  Share
  Report
- JPUAJPUA
  ·2022-12-01
  $Netflix(NFLX)$
  367 Comment
  Like
  Share
  Report
- JPUAJPUA
  ·2022-11-23
  $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Year end always goes up.. unless something big affects the whole economy
  299 Comment
  Like
  Share
  Report
- JPUAJPUA
  ·2022-11-10
  $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ might as well
  298 Comment
  Like
  Share
  Report
- JPUAJPUA
  ·2022-11-08
  How low can it get
  Palantir Technologies: Another One In Trouble
  SummaryPalantir Technologies Inc. beat Q3 estimates and reiterated 2022 revenue guidance.However, Pa
  Palantir Technologies: Another One In Trouble
  437 1
  3
  Share
  Report
- JPUAJPUA
  ·2022-11-08
  $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$
  375 Comment
  Like
  Share
  Report
- JPUAJPUA
  ·2022-11-07
  $S&P 500(.SPX)$
  452 Comment
  Like
  Share
  Report
- JPUAJPUA
  ·2022-10-05
  spy
  SPY: Is It Worth It To Buy Puts Now?
  SummaryThe bear market in the S&P 500 continues.Volatility remains elevated as investors scramble to
  SPY: Is It Worth It To Buy Puts Now?
  258 Comment
  Like
  Share
  Report
- JPUAJPUA
  ·2022-06-29
  yes
  Tesla: This Investment Is Not For The Faint-Hearted
  SummaryTesla is the world’s leading electric vehicle manufacturer.The company’s shares are down more than 40% from their 52-week high, which in the current environment is relatively resilient for expe
  Tesla: This Investment Is Not For The Faint-Hearted
  522 Comment
  2
  Share
  Report
No following yet

Most Discussed

Terms and Conditions·Privacy Policy

Company: TTMF Limited. Tech supported by Xiangshang Yixin.

Email：uservice@ttm.financial

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isCurrentUser":false,"userPageInfo":{"id":"3576506250433896","uuid":"3576506250433896","gmtCreate":1613452753571,"gmtModify":1616943707545,"name":"JPUA","pinyin":"jpua","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21bdd967fd1168252977dd837b1b7990","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":5,"headSize":23,"tweetSize":25,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":2,"name":"无畏虎","nameTw":"無畏虎","represent":"初生牛犊","factor":"发布3条非转发主帖,1条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":3,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-2","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Senior Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 1000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.11.13","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.28","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-3","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Legendary Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 300","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.28","exceedPercentage":"93.09%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-3","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"President Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $1,000,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.22","exceedPercentage":"93.09%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"page":1,"watchlist":null,"tweetList":[{"id":9956748468,"gmtCreate":1674229906054,"gmtModify":1676538932050,"author":{"id":"3576506250433896","authorId":"3576506250433896","name":"JPUA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21bdd967fd1168252977dd837b1b7990","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576506250433896","authorIdStr":"3576506250433896"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/NFLX 20230120 310.0 PUT\">$NFLX 20230120 310.0 PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/NFLX 20230120 310.0 PUT\">$NFLX 20230120 310.0 PUT$&nbsp;</a> &nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/NFLX 20230120 310.0 PUT\">$NFLX 20230120 310.0 PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/NFLX 20230120 310.0 PUT\">$NFLX 20230120 310.0 PUT$&nbsp;</a> &nbsp;","text":"$NFLX 20230120 310.0 PUT$ $NFLX 20230120 310.0 PUT$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5ef6539813f0de74dd2de33ea0cac2a9","width":"1080","height":"2182"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9956748468","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":354,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9956467691,"gmtCreate":1674142646614,"gmtModify":1676538926467,"author":{"id":"3576506250433896","authorId":"3576506250433896","name":"JPUA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21bdd967fd1168252977dd837b1b7990","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576506250433896","authorIdStr":"3576506250433896"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gonna go down this week and rocket next week","listText":"Gonna go down this week and rocket next week","text":"Gonna go down this week and rocket next week","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9956467691","repostId":"2302016055","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2302016055","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1673398023,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2302016055?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-11 08:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Netflix Could Be in for a Very Rough Quarter, Analyst Warns","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2302016055","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Streaming service is 'on a path' to add 2.7 million subscribers -- significantly less than the 4.5 m","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Streaming service is &#39;on a path&#39; to add 2.7 million subscribers -- significantly less than the 4.5 million the company has projected, Barclays analyst says</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aff2b91d75bb49b0e8ff2d252c563d10\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"486\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Netflix Inc. is scheduled to announce fiscal fourth-quarter results on Jan. 19. NETFLIX INC.</span></p><p>Netflix Inc. is likely to fall dramatically short of its projected subscriber additions when it reports fiscal fourth-quarter results next week, a financial analyst warned on Tuesday.</p><p>Barclays analyst Kannan Venkateshwar cautioned that Netflix (NFLX) is &#34;on a path&#34; to add 2.7 million subscribers -- significantly less than the 4.5 million the company has projected. A drop in app downloads, compounded by a plunge in viewership from last year&#39;s record audiences for &#34;Squid Game,&#34; account for the subscriber shortfall, he said.</p><p>A miss on net subscription additions would snap a brief rebound for Netflix. In October, the company said it added more than 2 million subscribers in the third quarter after stumbling into 2022 with two consecutive quarterly subscriber declines. (Starting this quarter, Netflix will stop offering forecasts of net subscriber adds, which have proved to be the one factor with the greatest influence on stock movement in recent years.)</p><p>Given Netflix&#39;s quick pivot to a lower-priced advertising-supported subscription tier, as well as its planned crackdown on shared accounts, the company will shift its guidance -- and emphasis-- to revenue, net income, earnings per share, operating income, operating margin and shares outstanding.</p><p>Analysts polled by FactSet are expecting Netflix to report $7.83 billion in revenue and adjusted earnings of 64 cents a share in the fourth quarter. In the same quarter a year ago, the company reported $7.71 billion in revenue and earnings of $607 million, or $1.33 a share.</p><p>Still, Venkateshwar cautioned that without reporting net subscriber additions and with a shift to an ad-supported plan in lieu of more expensive options, Netflix&#39;s stock could face increasing volatility.</p><p>Netflix shares closed higher 3.9% on Tuesday and rallied 11% this year. The broader S&amp;P 500 has inched up 2% so far in 2023.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Netflix Could Be in for a Very Rough Quarter, Analyst Warns</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNetflix Could Be in for a Very Rough Quarter, Analyst Warns\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-01-11 08:47</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Streaming service is &#39;on a path&#39; to add 2.7 million subscribers -- significantly less than the 4.5 million the company has projected, Barclays analyst says</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aff2b91d75bb49b0e8ff2d252c563d10\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"486\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Netflix Inc. is scheduled to announce fiscal fourth-quarter results on Jan. 19. NETFLIX INC.</span></p><p>Netflix Inc. is likely to fall dramatically short of its projected subscriber additions when it reports fiscal fourth-quarter results next week, a financial analyst warned on Tuesday.</p><p>Barclays analyst Kannan Venkateshwar cautioned that Netflix (NFLX) is &#34;on a path&#34; to add 2.7 million subscribers -- significantly less than the 4.5 million the company has projected. A drop in app downloads, compounded by a plunge in viewership from last year&#39;s record audiences for &#34;Squid Game,&#34; account for the subscriber shortfall, he said.</p><p>A miss on net subscription additions would snap a brief rebound for Netflix. In October, the company said it added more than 2 million subscribers in the third quarter after stumbling into 2022 with two consecutive quarterly subscriber declines. (Starting this quarter, Netflix will stop offering forecasts of net subscriber adds, which have proved to be the one factor with the greatest influence on stock movement in recent years.)</p><p>Given Netflix&#39;s quick pivot to a lower-priced advertising-supported subscription tier, as well as its planned crackdown on shared accounts, the company will shift its guidance -- and emphasis-- to revenue, net income, earnings per share, operating income, operating margin and shares outstanding.</p><p>Analysts polled by FactSet are expecting Netflix to report $7.83 billion in revenue and adjusted earnings of 64 cents a share in the fourth quarter. In the same quarter a year ago, the company reported $7.71 billion in revenue and earnings of $607 million, or $1.33 a share.</p><p>Still, Venkateshwar cautioned that without reporting net subscriber additions and with a shift to an ad-supported plan in lieu of more expensive options, Netflix&#39;s stock could face increasing volatility.</p><p>Netflix shares closed higher 3.9% on Tuesday and rallied 11% this year. The broader S&amp;P 500 has inched up 2% so far in 2023.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","NFLX":"奈飞","LU1046421795.USD":"富达环球科技A-ACC","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4108":"电影和娱乐","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4566":"资本集团","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU1823568750.SGD":"Fidelity Global Technology A-ACC SGD","BK4524":"宅经济概念","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2302016055","content_text":"Streaming service is 'on a path' to add 2.7 million subscribers -- significantly less than the 4.5 million the company has projected, Barclays analyst saysNetflix Inc. is scheduled to announce fiscal fourth-quarter results on Jan. 19. NETFLIX INC.Netflix Inc. is likely to fall dramatically short of its projected subscriber additions when it reports fiscal fourth-quarter results next week, a financial analyst warned on Tuesday.Barclays analyst Kannan Venkateshwar cautioned that Netflix (NFLX) is \"on a path\" to add 2.7 million subscribers -- significantly less than the 4.5 million the company has projected. A drop in app downloads, compounded by a plunge in viewership from last year's record audiences for \"Squid Game,\" account for the subscriber shortfall, he said.A miss on net subscription additions would snap a brief rebound for Netflix. In October, the company said it added more than 2 million subscribers in the third quarter after stumbling into 2022 with two consecutive quarterly subscriber declines. (Starting this quarter, Netflix will stop offering forecasts of net subscriber adds, which have proved to be the one factor with the greatest influence on stock movement in recent years.)Given Netflix's quick pivot to a lower-priced advertising-supported subscription tier, as well as its planned crackdown on shared accounts, the company will shift its guidance -- and emphasis-- to revenue, net income, earnings per share, operating income, operating margin and shares outstanding.Analysts polled by FactSet are expecting Netflix to report $7.83 billion in revenue and adjusted earnings of 64 cents a share in the fourth quarter. In the same quarter a year ago, the company reported $7.71 billion in revenue and earnings of $607 million, or $1.33 a share.Still, Venkateshwar cautioned that without reporting net subscriber additions and with a shift to an ad-supported plan in lieu of more expensive options, Netflix's stock could face increasing volatility.Netflix shares closed higher 3.9% on Tuesday and rallied 11% this year. The broader S&P 500 has inched up 2% so far in 2023.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":341,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9965913656,"gmtCreate":1669870127875,"gmtModify":1676538260562,"author":{"id":"3576506250433896","authorId":"3576506250433896","name":"JPUA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21bdd967fd1168252977dd837b1b7990","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576506250433896","authorIdStr":"3576506250433896"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NFLX\">$Netflix(NFLX)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NFLX\">$Netflix(NFLX)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$Netflix(NFLX)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965913656","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":367,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9968690703,"gmtCreate":1669198220202,"gmtModify":1676538166153,"author":{"id":"3576506250433896","authorId":"3576506250433896","name":"JPUA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21bdd967fd1168252977dd837b1b7990","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576506250433896","authorIdStr":"3576506250433896"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Year end always goes up.. unless something big affects the whole economy&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Year end always goes up.. unless something big affects the whole economy&nbsp;","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Year end always goes up.. unless something big affects the whole economy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968690703","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":299,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9960977069,"gmtCreate":1668054981851,"gmtModify":1676538005714,"author":{"id":"3576506250433896","authorId":"3576506250433896","name":"JPUA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21bdd967fd1168252977dd837b1b7990","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576506250433896","authorIdStr":"3576506250433896"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>might as well","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>might as well","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ might as well","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9960977069","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":298,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9987284850,"gmtCreate":1667920540070,"gmtModify":1676537984994,"author":{"id":"3576506250433896","authorId":"3576506250433896","name":"JPUA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21bdd967fd1168252977dd837b1b7990","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576506250433896","authorIdStr":"3576506250433896"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"How low can it get","listText":"How low can it get","text":"How low can it get","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9987284850","repostId":"1188013809","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188013809","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1667921719,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1188013809?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-08 23:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Technologies: Another One In Trouble","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188013809","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryPalantir Technologies Inc. beat Q3 estimates and reiterated 2022 revenue guidance.However, Pa","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Palantir Technologies Inc. beat Q3 estimates and reiterated 2022 revenue guidance.</li><li>However, Palantir&#39;s Q4 YoY revenue growth is expected to slow to 16%.</li><li>This seems quite aggressive compared to management&#39;s goal of growing Palantir into a $4.5-billion business by 2025.</li><li>As usual, Palantir profitability remains non-existent thanks to the wildly generous stock-based compensation that dilutes shareholder interest.</li><li>Avoid Palantir stock at all costs.</li></ul><p><b>Palantir Q3 results and Q4 outlook were both in line with expectations</b></p><p>Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:PLTR)reported 3Q22revenue of $478 million (+22% YoY), which beat $474 million consensus, while adjusted operating margin of 17% also compared favorably against 11.7% consensus. In Q3, total contract value increased to $1.3 billion and customer count grew 66% YoY. Despite the slower 23% YoY growth in U.S. government revenue, U.S. commercial revenue grew 53% YoY, while the commercial client base increased 124% YoY to 132 customers. Adjusted free cash flow (AFCF) was $37 million in Q3 for an adjusted FCF margin of 7.7%. Management was proud to highlight that this was the 8th consecutive quarter of positive AFCF.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/151320348f53f214f03305b0df96ffa7\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"632\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>ConsensusGuru</p><p>For Q4, management expects revenue of $504 million at the midpoint (+16% YoY) vs. $506 million consensus. This includes a $5 million FX impact, which seems rather minimal compared to most tech companies that derive a substantial portion of revenues from overseas. Palantir&#39;s revenue is largely U.S.-based, hence it is relatively safe from FX headwinds. Q4 adj. operating income is expected to be $79 million at the midpoint, implying an adj. EBIT margin of 15.7% vs. 12.4% consensus.</p><p>While most companies are either reducing outlooks or not providing forward guidance, Palantir actually reiterated its full year 2022 revenue guidance of $1.9 billion, including a small $6 million impact from FX headwinds. On the surface, nothing that Palantir said was out of the ordinary, as Q3 results and Q4 outlook were mostly in-line with expectations.</p><p><b>But why doesn&#39;t the market care?</b></p><p>Shares of Palantir are down 11% despite the company just delivered everything the Street asked for. Why is this happening? The first issue is that investors are uncertain as to how to value the stock given top-line growth is expected to moderate to 16% in Q4 from 22%/26%/31% in Q3/Q2/Q1. Remember that one year ago, Palantir was a company growing its quarterly revenue at well over 40% YoY in an environment where GAAP (growth at any price) was the dominant theme for the investment community. This is no longer the case as the Fed has said many times that rates will stay high until inflation drops to the 2% policy target.</p><p>The recent post-earnings price action (-18%) from another high flyer like Cloudflare, Inc. (NET) has also introduced a spillover effect on many fast-growing yet unprofitable names like Palantir. When earnings are non-existent, there&#39;s really no way of judging the potential price levels at which markets will find valuation support when top-line growth slows down.</p><p>This is where Palantir&#39;s history of zero (or negative) profitability becomes a major problem, as the company has struggled to make money over the past 19 years. While management talked about terms like adjusted operating margin and free cash flow, these figures appear positive only because management wants analysts to add back a list of financial shenanigans. Stock-based compensation (SBC) is the magic number that could make the company &#34;profitable.&#34;</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16e0caa3f6a7da73bf0d90d4b55b7fda\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Company data</p><p>In the first 9 months of 2022, Palantir&#39;s reported an actual loss from operations of $143 million (-10% EBIT margin) and net loss of over $400 million (-29% net margin). However, if we simply add back the $450 million in stock-based compensation plus the associated payroll taxes, Palantir is suddenly profitable, with an adjusted operating income of $306 million (22% adj. EBIT margin). Evidently, markets are done with this trick, and it doesn&#39;t require much for investors to understand that SBC is arguably the best way to dilute their financial interest in any business.</p><p><b>What to do with the stock?</b></p><p>Avoid Palantir at all costs. I maintain my Sell rating following my last article published in September. This is a structurally unprofitable business that will do investors more harm than good despite how massive the TAM (total addressable market) may be. The company offers mission-critical software for the U.S. government and corporations in the private sector, but at the end of the day, investors are unlikely to get excited if these activities cannot be carried out at a profit. Let&#39;s also not forget that the CEO&#39;s ambition is to reach $4.5 billion in revenue by 2025, implying a 33% CAGR for Palantir in the next 3 years after 2022.</p><p>With Palantir growth decelerating to just 16% in 4Q22 and potential uncertainty in federal spending in 2023, it&#39;ll be a painful process when expectations receive further adjustments to come in line with reality.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Technologies: Another One In Trouble</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Technologies: Another One In Trouble\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-08 23:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4554332-palantir-technologies-another-one-in-trouble><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryPalantir Technologies Inc. beat Q3 estimates and reiterated 2022 revenue guidance.However, Palantir's Q4 YoY revenue growth is expected to slow to 16%.This seems quite aggressive compared to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4554332-palantir-technologies-another-one-in-trouble\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4554332-palantir-technologies-another-one-in-trouble","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188013809","content_text":"SummaryPalantir Technologies Inc. beat Q3 estimates and reiterated 2022 revenue guidance.However, Palantir's Q4 YoY revenue growth is expected to slow to 16%.This seems quite aggressive compared to management's goal of growing Palantir into a $4.5-billion business by 2025.As usual, Palantir profitability remains non-existent thanks to the wildly generous stock-based compensation that dilutes shareholder interest.Avoid Palantir stock at all costs.Palantir Q3 results and Q4 outlook were both in line with expectationsPalantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:PLTR)reported 3Q22revenue of $478 million (+22% YoY), which beat $474 million consensus, while adjusted operating margin of 17% also compared favorably against 11.7% consensus. In Q3, total contract value increased to $1.3 billion and customer count grew 66% YoY. Despite the slower 23% YoY growth in U.S. government revenue, U.S. commercial revenue grew 53% YoY, while the commercial client base increased 124% YoY to 132 customers. Adjusted free cash flow (AFCF) was $37 million in Q3 for an adjusted FCF margin of 7.7%. Management was proud to highlight that this was the 8th consecutive quarter of positive AFCF.ConsensusGuruFor Q4, management expects revenue of $504 million at the midpoint (+16% YoY) vs. $506 million consensus. This includes a $5 million FX impact, which seems rather minimal compared to most tech companies that derive a substantial portion of revenues from overseas. Palantir's revenue is largely U.S.-based, hence it is relatively safe from FX headwinds. Q4 adj. operating income is expected to be $79 million at the midpoint, implying an adj. EBIT margin of 15.7% vs. 12.4% consensus.While most companies are either reducing outlooks or not providing forward guidance, Palantir actually reiterated its full year 2022 revenue guidance of $1.9 billion, including a small $6 million impact from FX headwinds. On the surface, nothing that Palantir said was out of the ordinary, as Q3 results and Q4 outlook were mostly in-line with expectations.But why doesn't the market care?Shares of Palantir are down 11% despite the company just delivered everything the Street asked for. Why is this happening? The first issue is that investors are uncertain as to how to value the stock given top-line growth is expected to moderate to 16% in Q4 from 22%/26%/31% in Q3/Q2/Q1. Remember that one year ago, Palantir was a company growing its quarterly revenue at well over 40% YoY in an environment where GAAP (growth at any price) was the dominant theme for the investment community. This is no longer the case as the Fed has said many times that rates will stay high until inflation drops to the 2% policy target.The recent post-earnings price action (-18%) from another high flyer like Cloudflare, Inc. (NET) has also introduced a spillover effect on many fast-growing yet unprofitable names like Palantir. When earnings are non-existent, there's really no way of judging the potential price levels at which markets will find valuation support when top-line growth slows down.This is where Palantir's history of zero (or negative) profitability becomes a major problem, as the company has struggled to make money over the past 19 years. While management talked about terms like adjusted operating margin and free cash flow, these figures appear positive only because management wants analysts to add back a list of financial shenanigans. Stock-based compensation (SBC) is the magic number that could make the company \"profitable.\"Company dataIn the first 9 months of 2022, Palantir's reported an actual loss from operations of $143 million (-10% EBIT margin) and net loss of over $400 million (-29% net margin). However, if we simply add back the $450 million in stock-based compensation plus the associated payroll taxes, Palantir is suddenly profitable, with an adjusted operating income of $306 million (22% adj. EBIT margin). Evidently, markets are done with this trick, and it doesn't require much for investors to understand that SBC is arguably the best way to dilute their financial interest in any business.What to do with the stock?Avoid Palantir at all costs. I maintain my Sell rating following my last article published in September. This is a structurally unprofitable business that will do investors more harm than good despite how massive the TAM (total addressable market) may be. The company offers mission-critical software for the U.S. government and corporations in the private sector, but at the end of the day, investors are unlikely to get excited if these activities cannot be carried out at a profit. Let's also not forget that the CEO's ambition is to reach $4.5 billion in revenue by 2025, implying a 33% CAGR for Palantir in the next 3 years after 2022.With Palantir growth decelerating to just 16% in 4Q22 and potential uncertainty in federal spending in 2023, it'll be a painful process when expectations receive further adjustments to come in line with reality.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":437,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9987285430,"gmtCreate":1667920467421,"gmtModify":1676537984936,"author":{"id":"3576506250433896","authorId":"3576506250433896","name":"JPUA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21bdd967fd1168252977dd837b1b7990","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576506250433896","authorIdStr":"3576506250433896"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9987285430","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":375,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9987374374,"gmtCreate":1667834731098,"gmtModify":1676537971719,"author":{"id":"3576506250433896","authorId":"3576506250433896","name":"JPUA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21bdd967fd1168252977dd837b1b7990","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576506250433896","authorIdStr":"3576506250433896"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$S&amp;P 500(.SPX)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$S&amp;P 500(.SPX)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$S&P 500(.SPX)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9987374374","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":452,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9915325958,"gmtCreate":1664965958375,"gmtModify":1676537536664,"author":{"id":"3576506250433896","authorId":"3576506250433896","name":"JPUA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21bdd967fd1168252977dd837b1b7990","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576506250433896","authorIdStr":"3576506250433896"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"spy","listText":"spy","text":"spy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9915325958","repostId":"1138224911","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1138224911","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1664946069,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1138224911?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-05 13:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"SPY: Is It Worth It To Buy Puts Now?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138224911","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThe bear market in the S&P 500 continues.Volatility remains elevated as investors scramble to","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>The bear market in the S&amp;P 500 continues.</li><li>Volatility remains elevated as investors scramble to hedge their portfolios.</li><li>The herd mentality is in full display with the past weeks having seen record amount of put purchases.</li><li>We explore in this article the payoff profiles of certain put options on the S&amp;P 500 and alternatives.</li></ul><p>Thesis</p><p>The bear market in the S&amp;P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) continues unabated, even though we are in the midst of another bear market rally. Weaker than expected US ISM Manufacturing (50.9 vs. 52.0 expected) and the U-turn in UK fiscal policy have triggered the latest rally, in a classic example of bad news is good news. Ultimately, the market will go towards fair value, as defined by its P/E ratio. Where the bottom lies in the index is as much dependent on the Earnings component as it is on the P/E de-rating:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8d1cab7ce0f8412e3abf5bb58c13706\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>S&amp;P 500 P/E Ratio (Alliance Bernstein)</span></p><p>We are of the opinion that we are moving towards the long-term average of 15x P/E ratio, with a -5% to -10% revision down in earnings. That should move the Index to the low 3000s levels.</p><p>If an investor is in agreement that we are heading lower, then there are a couple of alternatives available:</p><p>1) Liquidate all holdings and stay only in cash (it is yielding over 3% now, hence the new moniker TARA)</p><p>2) Hedge the portfolio via inverse ETFs</p><p>3) Buy puts</p><p>Investors are well aware of the current market dynamics with put buying at historic record levels:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77978d3aafc15a790fb5e9f0771025f7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>The upper part of the graph shows the amount spent of buying puts - please notice the historic spike up in the graph, while the lower part of the graph is premium spent on calls. Please note that during 2021 when TINA was in vogue the line was sky-high, while currently it has virtually collapsed. This translates into investors basically believing there is little upside in the market now, hence &#34;why spend cash on calls?&#34; type of mind-sets.</p><p>Current Options Pricing</p><p>Let us have a look at how the pricing looks like for certain maturities:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6e1867749744c17c77fa767474020f5\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"198\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>The most important aspect for options pricing is volatility, which is now elevated:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24e4d10b819a964a93f6ee0dd072bce5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"518\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>VIX Levels (Investing.com)</span></p><p>Elevated volatility results in expensive options when an investor buys them. Rates have become a more relevant component as well, but for shorter dated options they represent the second most important factor.</p><p>If we have a look at Table 1, we have highlighted in a simple fashion the maturity pay-off profiles of current S&amp;P 500 put options. This presents the profit and loss upon maturity with an implied S&amp;P 500 target of 3,300. By subtracting the cost of the option, we can see the break-even price (basically where the S&amp;P 500 needs to be in order for an investor not to lose money). The most interesting aspect is the &#34;downside protection&#34; column, which gives us a sense of how much of the down move is hedged via put purchases.</p><p>We can see that given high implied volatility, the December puts only offer a 49% downside protection (i.e. if you bought the December puts now and the S&amp;P 500 went to 3,300 on expiry you would only make 49% on your option) while the front ended one in October gives an investor a 74% coverage.</p><h3>Put Mark-to-Market Volatility</h3><p>Let us also have a look at the November 18 360 strike puts and get a sense of how the mark-to-market would look like (the analysis is run utilizing a binomial options pricing methodology):</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1be01e96767b5cf22eb897dd501e7f59\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Table 2 - MtM Volatility (Author)</p><p>In the tables above we took the current pricing on the Nov 18 360 strike SPY put and ran several price and maturity simulations to get a sense of how much protection the put offers. We can see that the breakeven upon maturity needs a market loss of at least -3% from current levels, and the pay-off profile generally accelerates after a -6% move.</p><p>The current pricing needs a significant front-ended drop for the options to be profitable. For example, if the S&amp;P 500 moves to 3,300 by the end of October, then the put option offers a 183% pay-off (i.e. the premium moves from 10.8 to 30.7, which results in a gain of 19.87 per contract). Conversely, if the price stays at 360 the profit and loss is -19% due to the option decay.</p><p>Let us marry up Table 1 with Table 2 to better understand the downside protection offered:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fe498f0d2131fbd58d941909e2f043a\" tg-width=\"465\" tg-height=\"112\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Table 3 (Author)</p><p>If we have a portfolio entirely invested in the S&amp;P 500 and a $360k notional, then a move to 3,300 would generate a loss around -30k which would be offset by a gain of 19k from the 10 contracts bought above. Hence, the portfolio loss would not be entirely covered, only 64% of the downside move. The reason for this coverage is the expensive options pricing.</p><h3>Conclusion</h3><p>The S&amp;P 500 is on a down-trend, with many analysts expecting ultimate pricing in the low 3,000s. The index is experiencing both a P/E de-rating as well as a re-set on the earnings forecast. Current market pricing makes puts expensive, with 1- and 3-months puts currently priced to offer only 74% and 49% downside protection respectively. A retail investor buying puts at current levels needs an exponential gap-down (above -6%) in the next 40 days in order to be significantly profitable on the options, with the caveat that the options will only partially protect the investor&#39;s portfolios. Inverse ETFs are also an alternative in the current environment, but the pay-off profile is significantly different, with the losses uncapped if the market rallies.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SPY: Is It Worth It To Buy Puts Now?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSPY: Is It Worth It To Buy Puts Now?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-05 13:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544590-spy-worth-buy-puts-now><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe bear market in the S&P 500 continues.Volatility remains elevated as investors scramble to hedge their portfolios.The herd mentality is in full display with the past weeks having seen record...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544590-spy-worth-buy-puts-now\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544590-spy-worth-buy-puts-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138224911","content_text":"SummaryThe bear market in the S&P 500 continues.Volatility remains elevated as investors scramble to hedge their portfolios.The herd mentality is in full display with the past weeks having seen record amount of put purchases.We explore in this article the payoff profiles of certain put options on the S&P 500 and alternatives.ThesisThe bear market in the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) continues unabated, even though we are in the midst of another bear market rally. Weaker than expected US ISM Manufacturing (50.9 vs. 52.0 expected) and the U-turn in UK fiscal policy have triggered the latest rally, in a classic example of bad news is good news. Ultimately, the market will go towards fair value, as defined by its P/E ratio. Where the bottom lies in the index is as much dependent on the Earnings component as it is on the P/E de-rating:S&P 500 P/E Ratio (Alliance Bernstein)We are of the opinion that we are moving towards the long-term average of 15x P/E ratio, with a -5% to -10% revision down in earnings. That should move the Index to the low 3000s levels.If an investor is in agreement that we are heading lower, then there are a couple of alternatives available:1) Liquidate all holdings and stay only in cash (it is yielding over 3% now, hence the new moniker TARA)2) Hedge the portfolio via inverse ETFs3) Buy putsInvestors are well aware of the current market dynamics with put buying at historic record levels:The upper part of the graph shows the amount spent of buying puts - please notice the historic spike up in the graph, while the lower part of the graph is premium spent on calls. Please note that during 2021 when TINA was in vogue the line was sky-high, while currently it has virtually collapsed. This translates into investors basically believing there is little upside in the market now, hence \"why spend cash on calls?\" type of mind-sets.Current Options PricingLet us have a look at how the pricing looks like for certain maturities:The most important aspect for options pricing is volatility, which is now elevated:VIX Levels (Investing.com)Elevated volatility results in expensive options when an investor buys them. Rates have become a more relevant component as well, but for shorter dated options they represent the second most important factor.If we have a look at Table 1, we have highlighted in a simple fashion the maturity pay-off profiles of current S&P 500 put options. This presents the profit and loss upon maturity with an implied S&P 500 target of 3,300. By subtracting the cost of the option, we can see the break-even price (basically where the S&P 500 needs to be in order for an investor not to lose money). The most interesting aspect is the \"downside protection\" column, which gives us a sense of how much of the down move is hedged via put purchases.We can see that given high implied volatility, the December puts only offer a 49% downside protection (i.e. if you bought the December puts now and the S&P 500 went to 3,300 on expiry you would only make 49% on your option) while the front ended one in October gives an investor a 74% coverage.Put Mark-to-Market VolatilityLet us also have a look at the November 18 360 strike puts and get a sense of how the mark-to-market would look like (the analysis is run utilizing a binomial options pricing methodology):Table 2 - MtM Volatility (Author)In the tables above we took the current pricing on the Nov 18 360 strike SPY put and ran several price and maturity simulations to get a sense of how much protection the put offers. We can see that the breakeven upon maturity needs a market loss of at least -3% from current levels, and the pay-off profile generally accelerates after a -6% move.The current pricing needs a significant front-ended drop for the options to be profitable. For example, if the S&P 500 moves to 3,300 by the end of October, then the put option offers a 183% pay-off (i.e. the premium moves from 10.8 to 30.7, which results in a gain of 19.87 per contract). Conversely, if the price stays at 360 the profit and loss is -19% due to the option decay.Let us marry up Table 1 with Table 2 to better understand the downside protection offered:Table 3 (Author)If we have a portfolio entirely invested in the S&P 500 and a $360k notional, then a move to 3,300 would generate a loss around -30k which would be offset by a gain of 19k from the 10 contracts bought above. Hence, the portfolio loss would not be entirely covered, only 64% of the downside move. The reason for this coverage is the expensive options pricing.ConclusionThe S&P 500 is on a down-trend, with many analysts expecting ultimate pricing in the low 3,000s. The index is experiencing both a P/E de-rating as well as a re-set on the earnings forecast. Current market pricing makes puts expensive, with 1- and 3-months puts currently priced to offer only 74% and 49% downside protection respectively. A retail investor buying puts at current levels needs an exponential gap-down (above -6%) in the next 40 days in order to be significantly profitable on the options, with the caveat that the options will only partially protect the investor's portfolios. Inverse ETFs are also an alternative in the current environment, but the pay-off profile is significantly different, with the losses uncapped if the market rallies.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":258,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9042587590,"gmtCreate":1656500016410,"gmtModify":1676535841018,"author":{"id":"3576506250433896","authorId":"3576506250433896","name":"JPUA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21bdd967fd1168252977dd837b1b7990","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576506250433896","authorIdStr":"3576506250433896"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"yes","listText":"yes","text":"yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9042587590","repostId":"2247564800","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2247564800","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1656512826,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2247564800?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-29 22:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: This Investment Is Not For The Faint-Hearted","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2247564800","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryTesla is the world’s leading electric vehicle manufacturer.The company’s shares are down more than 40% from their 52-week high, which in the current environment is relatively resilient for expe","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Tesla is the world’s leading electric vehicle manufacturer.</li><li>The company’s shares are down more than 40% from their 52-week high, which in the current environment is relatively resilient for expensive tech stocks.</li><li>The future of this business is somewhat shrouded in mystery, with CEO Elon Musk having a habit of overpromising and underdelivering.</li><li>Despite this, Tesla is at the forefront of a shift to electrification, and I for one can get behind its mission to “accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy”.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18a8ddcfd306d6221eb23ad49f4e085f\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>MikeMareen/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><b>Investment Thesis</b></p><blockquote>Reach for the stars, and if you don&#39;t grab &#39;em, at least you&#39;ll fall on top of the world</blockquote><p>I hope that everyone here recognizes the lyrical genius of Mr. Worldwide himself, especially this line is taken from Pitbull’s songGive Me Everything.</p><p>I can’t help but feel like CEO (sorry, Technoking) of Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:NASDAQ:TSLA) Elon Musk found himself inspired by these lyrics. He certainly has a habit of reaching for the stars – whether it&#39;s quite literally thanks to SpaceX, or the fact that he has a habit of making wild promises &amp; setting goals that go far beyond the realms of &#34;ambitious.&#34;</p><p>Yet Mr. Musk has found himself falling on top of the world, as Tesla has had a fantastic few years and continues to make impressive progress on full self-driving. Tesla continues to reach for the stars, but will they just come crashing down to earth? I put the company through my investing framework to find out.</p><p><b>Business Overview</b></p><p>Tesla has pioneered electric vehicle technology since its inception almost 20 years ago, and the company appears to have reached an inflection point over the past 5 years – moving from the brink of bankruptcy in 2018 to a trillion dollar company in 2021.</p><p>Tesla is primarily an automotive company right now, and it has four car models:</p><ul><li>Model S: a 4-door, high performance sedan</li><li>Model 3: a 4-door, mid-size sedan designed for the mass-market</li><li>Model X: a mid-size, high-performance SUV</li><li>Model Y: a company SUV built on the Model 3 platform</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9a52b2206e73300b606f427914d8d63\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Tesla</span></p><p>The rollout of Tesla’s Model 3 helped transform the business over the past 5 years. Its mass-market appeal and more affordable price point certainly turned Tesla from an up-and-coming EV company to a genuine automotive business. The below chart highlights just how important the Model 3 has been to Tesla over recent years.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66070afd3a5ab98e954039f1c27b5802\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Statista</span></p><p>Tesla also offers additional products for energy generation and storage. These include Powerwall, a lithium-ion battery storage product designed for a home, Megapack, an energy storage solution for much larger facilities, and Solar Roof, which is well... a solar powered roof.</p><p>The company also has also invested in a significant amount of vertical integration and additional solutions, including but not limited to:</p><ul><li>In-house developed battery and powertrain technology</li><li>Self-Driving technologies, with offerings such as Autopilot and FSD (Full self-driving).</li><li>A network of Tesla Superchargers, which offer high-speed EV charging for Tesla owners</li><li>A direct-to-consumer sales approach through its website, and an international network of company owned stores</li><li>An insurance product which was launched in California in 2019, and has expanded into more and more states</li></ul><p>It would be possible to do a dedicated article on every single <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of these additional solutions – but I don’t want to write a novel, at least not yet. That is before considering the future products that Tesla could potentially offer, such as the cybertruck, a network of robotaxis, and Elon Musk’s new favorite toy – the Optimus robot. Whilst I don’t expect all of these ideas to succeed, I do like to see a company with optionality, and Tesla has this in abundance.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23f883f28e00544dd09c773e389364f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>The Optimus Robot (Tesla)</span></p><p><b>Economic Moats</b></p><p>With every business, I look to see if there are any durable competitive advantages (aka economic moats) that will help the company continue to thrive whilst protecting itself from competition. Right now, I believe that Tesla has a number of competitive advantages.</p><p>The first moat worth highlighting is the network effect that Tesla has. Its vehicles are substantially more technologically advanced and interconnected than those of the incumbent manufacturers, and as such Tesla is able to generate a wealth of data from every mile that is driven.</p><p>This has given them a lead in autonomous driving, as the company has been able to analyze the ever-growing masses of data received from its FSD programs, following which they are able to iterate and rollout improved versions. Tesla is still yet to completely crack full self-driving, but once (or if) it does, it will be transformational for both the company and the world. The below quote from CEO Musk clearly shows his excitement combined with an awareness that this has been a long time coming, yet has never arrived:</p><blockquote>Well, with respect to full self-driving, of any technology development I’ve ever been involved in, I’ve never really seen more kind of false dawns or where it seems like we’re going to break through, but we don’t, as I’ve seen in full self-driving. And ultimately, what it comes down to is that to solve full self-driving, you actually have to solve real-world artificial intelligence, which is -- which nobody has solved. The whole road system is made for biological neural nets and eyes. And so, actually, when you think about it, in order to solve for full self-driving, we have to solve neural nets and cameras to a degree of capability that is on par with or really exceeds humans.</blockquote><blockquote>And I think we will achieve that this year. The best way to reach your own assessment is to join the Tesla full self-driving beta program where we have over 100,000 people right now enrolled in that program, and we expect to broaden that significantly this year. So, that’s my recommendation, is join the full self-driving beta program and experience it for yourself and take note of the rate of improvement with every release. And we put out a new release roughly every two weeks. And you’ll see a little bit of two steps forward, one step back. But overall, the rate of improvement is incredibly quick.</blockquote><p>So, Musk thinks FSD will be achieved this year – I’m sure he’s never said that before…</p><p>Regardless, the amount of data that Tesla has been able to obtain for FSD is unmatched by competitors, and the network effect is this: more data leads to improved FSD, improved FSD leads to more customers buying Teslas and using FSD, more customers using FSD results in more data, and more data leads to improved FSD. Humans have been trying to crack autonomous driving for a long time, but this network effect may well provide the best opportunity yet.</p><p>Another network effect that I think is more realistic &amp; sometimes overlooked is with insurance, probably because it’s not as exciting as the idea of robotaxis. Yet it is a similar story to the one above; Tesla has a very connected network of cars with tons of data, and this should enable them to offer data-driven insurance to customers that ends up being increasingly accurate as this network grows.</p><p>Tesla also benefits from some switching costs, and this is driven by their network of Superchargers. The company has worked hard to build out this network &amp; ensure that Tesla drivers can access these Superchargers easily – but, originally these were only available for Tesla drivers. This is clearly a switching cost, but Tesla has recently trialed opening up its Supercharger network to non-Tesla EVs. Whilst this reduces Tesla’s competitive advantage, I think it was always going to be eroded away over time as EV adoption increases – so perhaps this pilot is Tesla’s way of getting ahead of the curve?</p><p>Tesla also has the benefit of low-cost production, driven by their vertical integration on battery technology, direct-to-consumer sales, and the ultra-efficient Gigafactories. In fact, a view of their TTM operating margin compared to the incumbents is quite incredible – particularly when you consider that Tesla continues to be less established, and probably has even more room to expand these margins, particularly with the potential for additional software offerings.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d92e0d8f7493cae26081c74e9a6693b8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Tesla Q1&#39;22 Investor Presentation</span></p><p>The final moat that I’ll give Tesla credit for is their brand, and I don’t think anyone can argue with this – but just in case you want to, I’ll add in the below graphic comparing Tesla’s ad-spending per car sold back in 2021.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7c781fe9080e9f67aa3ce0af810baa2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Visual Capitalist</span></p><p>This is another one of the many reasons why Tesla is able to churn out industry-leading margins.</p><p>Despite this lack of marketing, demand is still substantially outweighing supply, as per Elon Musk on the Q1’22 conference call:</p><blockquote>I should mention that it may seem like maybe we’re being unreasonable about increasing the prices of our vehicles, given that we had record profitability this quarter, but the wait list for our vehicles is quite long. And some of the vehicles that people will order, the wait list extends into next year. So, our prices of vehicles ordered now are really anticipating supplier and logistics cost growth that we’re aware of and believe will happen over the next 6 to 12 months. So, that’s why we have the price increases today because the car ordered today will arrive, in some cases, a year from now. So, we have a very long wait list, and we’re obviously not demand-limited. We are production-limited by -- very much production-limited.</blockquote><p>As you can also see, a strong brand gives pricing power &amp; this is just one other lever Tesla can pull in order to keep delivering strong financial results.</p><p>All in all, there are several powerful economic moats that should help Tesla protect itself from the ever-emerging competition.</p><p><b>Outlook</b></p><p>I’ll be honest, it’s pretty difficult to give an exact figure on the potential opportunity for Tesla – particularly if the company succeeds with its full self-driving, the robotaxi network, or even the Optimus robot. I think all any shareholder needs to know is that the opportunity is huge, and it’s only getting bigger.</p><p>If I take a step back and focus solely on the EV market, the opportunity remains both fast growing and enormous. According to Facts and Factors, the global electric vehicle market is expected to grow from a size of $185 billion in 2021 to $980 billion by 2028, implying a CAGR of 24.5% over that period – with Tesla leading the charge (geddit?).</p><p><b>Management</b></p><p>When it comes to fast-paced, innovative companies, I always aim to find founder-led businesses where inside ownership is high. I’ll start by highlighting that, even though Elon Musk is not the founder of Tesla, he certainly has his heart and soul in the business. If he walks like a founder and talks like a founder, I’m more than happy to consider Elon Musk a founder.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3d7ef06816853cbc8925c926acef1fb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"318\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Tesla Q1&#39;22 Investor Presentation</span></p><p>I also want to invest in companies where leadership has skin-in-the-game, and Mr. Musk has this in abundance. This is a CEO who understands what skin-in-the-game truly means, as he shows in this 2019 tweet.</p><p>But do the numbers back that up? They certainly do, as Elon Musk owns ~25% of the company – no wonder he’s the richest man in the world!</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c94e4e6285ec0abd74a194a9cf51c478\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"95\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Tesla 2021 Proxy Filing / Excel</span></p><p>I also like to take a quick look on Glassdoor to get an idea about the culture of a company, and Tesla gets somewhat underwhelming scores from the ~7,000 reviews left by employees. Any score over 4.0 is impressive, and Tesla fails to obtain this in any category. The score is particularly low on Work/Life Balance, which probably isn’t a surprise to anyone – whilst Elon Musk has undoubtedly driven the world forward with some of his companies, he also has a reputation of being tough to work for. He has incredibly high expectations from himself and those around him – unfortunately, this appears to have led to a culture within Tesla that I would not be too happy with as a shareholder.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5a0db0f879ac0ac11e4ff2c8e86530d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"335\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Glassdoor</span></p><p><b>Financials</b></p><p>Tesla’s financial profile over the last few years is something of a turnaround story, starting with their balance sheet. Back in 2018, the company had almost 3x as much debt as they had cash. Fast-forward to 2021, and that has completed flipped, with cash now representing more than 3x their debt. This has been driven by the company&#39;s ability to ramp up sales and bring in additional cash flow to shore up the balance sheet, as well as raising funds through additional share offerings. The bankruptcy risk to Tesla around 2018 was well documented, but clearly now it is a company in an extremely robust financial position that will serve it will for the future.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fcd19b7e6b5ff0d24497bfe963e7db2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Tesla SEC Filings / Excel</span></p><p>Revenue growth has been lumpy over this period, at times impacted by the needed ramp up of its production facilities as well as the impact of lockdowns during the pandemic – but 2021 saw revenue absolutely soar as the world opened up again, and consumer spending took off like a rocket.</p><p>Margins and cash flow for this business are impressive, whichever way you look at it. The EBIT margin has seen astounding expansion for such a capital-intensive business, and similarly the ~$11.5 billion in operating cash flow in 2021 is incredibly strong. It makes you wonder how a business goes from the brink of bankruptcy to a cash generating machine in just a few years.</p><p><b>Valuation</b></p><p>As with all high growth, innovative companies, valuation is tough – and for a company who believe their future products to be life changing, it is even more difficult. I believe that my approach will give me an idea about whether Tesla is insanely overvalued or undervalued, but valuation is the final thing I look at - the quality of the business itself is far more important in the long run.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48ad05f01f439dfffcb8971c90609b3c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Tesla SEC Filings / Excel</span></p><p>My model assumes revenue growth of 50% for 2022, following Tesla&#39;s guidance of 50% YoY growth in vehicle deliveries driven by the continued strong demand and production ramp up despite the continued issues in Shanghai. I have then assumed a slowdown in revenue growth through to 2026. It’s perfectly reasonable to think that this is too conservative, however I would always prefer to be too conservative rather than too optimistic.</p><p>I have also assumed a gradual margin expansion as Tesla continues to benefit from its scale, and those investments in vertically integrated aspects of its business start to play out.</p><p>I assumed that shares outstanding will increase by 5% annually through to 2026. Tesla has a history of diluting shareholders, however I still think that this assumption is prudent – as Tesla continues to produce more cash, I doubt it will continue to dilute shareholders at a dramatic rate.</p><p>Finally, I’ve chosen a wide range of EV / FCF multiples for the low, medium, and high scenario. This represents my own uncertainty about the future of Tesla, the fact that it is priced for a lot of success, but also the fact that it could see success that is far beyond my imagination.</p><p>Put this all together, and my mid-range scenario implies an 11% CAGR of Tesla shares from today through to 2026.</p><p><b>Risks</b></p><p>There are a number of potential risks for Tesla, as my fellow Seeking Alpha highlights in this detailed article. I do think the approach is very &#34;glass half empty,&#34; but it is useful for potential shareholders to familiarize themselves with these risks.</p><p>In my eyes, there are a couple of main risks. First is competition – EVs are growing in popularity, and there are a number of new EV-specialist car manufacturers as well as the incumbents who are all coming to do battle with Tesla. Clearly, Tesla has a huge head start, but shareholders should keep an eye on any competitors who appear to be closing this gap.</p><p>The second risk primarily relates to China. Clearly there are geopolitical risks, and China is also one of the most competitive markets for electric vehicles – and, it’s likely to grow and be the largest. If Tesla is impacted by geopolitics, then it could suffer greatly. Just take a look at the below table of car sales over the past few years to see the impact that China is having on Tesla’s business, with its growth outpacing the US and Other substantially.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0180430811196be3b429d3a937fabcb2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"207\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Tesla 2021 Annual Report</span></p><p>The final risk is that of a recession, which could certainly be looming. Whilst I think Tesla does benefit from secular tailwinds, I would not be surprised to see consumers cut back on spending for new, somewhat luxury cars - and I&#39;d expect the automotive industry to be hit particularly hard.</p><p><b>Summary</b></p><p>An investment in Tesla is certainly not for the faint hearted, and I want to highlight that my current view on Tesla is a <b>tentative buy rating</b>. I wouldn’t be surprised to hear either of the following statements in 2030:</p><p>“Remember when we used to drive cars? The fact that we’ve got these Tesla robotaxis is crazy when you think about it, they’ve taken over the world!”</p><p><b>Or</b></p><p>“Tesla sure was overhyped. They really struggled in China, and in the end they ended up just being a car company – despite what I’d seen on Reddit, poor Elon.”</p><p>Personally, I believe that Tesla does have a bright future – even if I can’t predict it with much certainty, there are so many tailwinds driving this brilliant company forward. The share price today offers a much more attractive risk / reward profile, and that I why I would be happy to add this ground-breaking company to my investment portfolio.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: This Investment Is Not For The Faint-Hearted</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: This Investment Is Not For The Faint-Hearted\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-29 22:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4520825-tesla-this-investment-is-not-for-the-faint-hearted><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryTesla is the world’s leading electric vehicle manufacturer.The company’s shares are down more than 40% from their 52-week high, which in the current environment is relatively resilient for ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4520825-tesla-this-investment-is-not-for-the-faint-hearted\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4520825-tesla-this-investment-is-not-for-the-faint-hearted","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2247564800","content_text":"SummaryTesla is the world’s leading electric vehicle manufacturer.The company’s shares are down more than 40% from their 52-week high, which in the current environment is relatively resilient for expensive tech stocks.The future of this business is somewhat shrouded in mystery, with CEO Elon Musk having a habit of overpromising and underdelivering.Despite this, Tesla is at the forefront of a shift to electrification, and I for one can get behind its mission to “accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy”.MikeMareen/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesInvestment ThesisReach for the stars, and if you don't grab 'em, at least you'll fall on top of the worldI hope that everyone here recognizes the lyrical genius of Mr. Worldwide himself, especially this line is taken from Pitbull’s songGive Me Everything.I can’t help but feel like CEO (sorry, Technoking) of Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:NASDAQ:TSLA) Elon Musk found himself inspired by these lyrics. He certainly has a habit of reaching for the stars – whether it's quite literally thanks to SpaceX, or the fact that he has a habit of making wild promises & setting goals that go far beyond the realms of \"ambitious.\"Yet Mr. Musk has found himself falling on top of the world, as Tesla has had a fantastic few years and continues to make impressive progress on full self-driving. Tesla continues to reach for the stars, but will they just come crashing down to earth? I put the company through my investing framework to find out.Business OverviewTesla has pioneered electric vehicle technology since its inception almost 20 years ago, and the company appears to have reached an inflection point over the past 5 years – moving from the brink of bankruptcy in 2018 to a trillion dollar company in 2021.Tesla is primarily an automotive company right now, and it has four car models:Model S: a 4-door, high performance sedanModel 3: a 4-door, mid-size sedan designed for the mass-marketModel X: a mid-size, high-performance SUVModel Y: a company SUV built on the Model 3 platformTeslaThe rollout of Tesla’s Model 3 helped transform the business over the past 5 years. Its mass-market appeal and more affordable price point certainly turned Tesla from an up-and-coming EV company to a genuine automotive business. The below chart highlights just how important the Model 3 has been to Tesla over recent years.StatistaTesla also offers additional products for energy generation and storage. These include Powerwall, a lithium-ion battery storage product designed for a home, Megapack, an energy storage solution for much larger facilities, and Solar Roof, which is well... a solar powered roof.The company also has also invested in a significant amount of vertical integration and additional solutions, including but not limited to:In-house developed battery and powertrain technologySelf-Driving technologies, with offerings such as Autopilot and FSD (Full self-driving).A network of Tesla Superchargers, which offer high-speed EV charging for Tesla ownersA direct-to-consumer sales approach through its website, and an international network of company owned storesAn insurance product which was launched in California in 2019, and has expanded into more and more statesIt would be possible to do a dedicated article on every single one of these additional solutions – but I don’t want to write a novel, at least not yet. That is before considering the future products that Tesla could potentially offer, such as the cybertruck, a network of robotaxis, and Elon Musk’s new favorite toy – the Optimus robot. Whilst I don’t expect all of these ideas to succeed, I do like to see a company with optionality, and Tesla has this in abundance.The Optimus Robot (Tesla)Economic MoatsWith every business, I look to see if there are any durable competitive advantages (aka economic moats) that will help the company continue to thrive whilst protecting itself from competition. Right now, I believe that Tesla has a number of competitive advantages.The first moat worth highlighting is the network effect that Tesla has. Its vehicles are substantially more technologically advanced and interconnected than those of the incumbent manufacturers, and as such Tesla is able to generate a wealth of data from every mile that is driven.This has given them a lead in autonomous driving, as the company has been able to analyze the ever-growing masses of data received from its FSD programs, following which they are able to iterate and rollout improved versions. Tesla is still yet to completely crack full self-driving, but once (or if) it does, it will be transformational for both the company and the world. The below quote from CEO Musk clearly shows his excitement combined with an awareness that this has been a long time coming, yet has never arrived:Well, with respect to full self-driving, of any technology development I’ve ever been involved in, I’ve never really seen more kind of false dawns or where it seems like we’re going to break through, but we don’t, as I’ve seen in full self-driving. And ultimately, what it comes down to is that to solve full self-driving, you actually have to solve real-world artificial intelligence, which is -- which nobody has solved. The whole road system is made for biological neural nets and eyes. And so, actually, when you think about it, in order to solve for full self-driving, we have to solve neural nets and cameras to a degree of capability that is on par with or really exceeds humans.And I think we will achieve that this year. The best way to reach your own assessment is to join the Tesla full self-driving beta program where we have over 100,000 people right now enrolled in that program, and we expect to broaden that significantly this year. So, that’s my recommendation, is join the full self-driving beta program and experience it for yourself and take note of the rate of improvement with every release. And we put out a new release roughly every two weeks. And you’ll see a little bit of two steps forward, one step back. But overall, the rate of improvement is incredibly quick.So, Musk thinks FSD will be achieved this year – I’m sure he’s never said that before…Regardless, the amount of data that Tesla has been able to obtain for FSD is unmatched by competitors, and the network effect is this: more data leads to improved FSD, improved FSD leads to more customers buying Teslas and using FSD, more customers using FSD results in more data, and more data leads to improved FSD. Humans have been trying to crack autonomous driving for a long time, but this network effect may well provide the best opportunity yet.Another network effect that I think is more realistic & sometimes overlooked is with insurance, probably because it’s not as exciting as the idea of robotaxis. Yet it is a similar story to the one above; Tesla has a very connected network of cars with tons of data, and this should enable them to offer data-driven insurance to customers that ends up being increasingly accurate as this network grows.Tesla also benefits from some switching costs, and this is driven by their network of Superchargers. The company has worked hard to build out this network & ensure that Tesla drivers can access these Superchargers easily – but, originally these were only available for Tesla drivers. This is clearly a switching cost, but Tesla has recently trialed opening up its Supercharger network to non-Tesla EVs. Whilst this reduces Tesla’s competitive advantage, I think it was always going to be eroded away over time as EV adoption increases – so perhaps this pilot is Tesla’s way of getting ahead of the curve?Tesla also has the benefit of low-cost production, driven by their vertical integration on battery technology, direct-to-consumer sales, and the ultra-efficient Gigafactories. In fact, a view of their TTM operating margin compared to the incumbents is quite incredible – particularly when you consider that Tesla continues to be less established, and probably has even more room to expand these margins, particularly with the potential for additional software offerings.Tesla Q1'22 Investor PresentationThe final moat that I’ll give Tesla credit for is their brand, and I don’t think anyone can argue with this – but just in case you want to, I’ll add in the below graphic comparing Tesla’s ad-spending per car sold back in 2021.Visual CapitalistThis is another one of the many reasons why Tesla is able to churn out industry-leading margins.Despite this lack of marketing, demand is still substantially outweighing supply, as per Elon Musk on the Q1’22 conference call:I should mention that it may seem like maybe we’re being unreasonable about increasing the prices of our vehicles, given that we had record profitability this quarter, but the wait list for our vehicles is quite long. And some of the vehicles that people will order, the wait list extends into next year. So, our prices of vehicles ordered now are really anticipating supplier and logistics cost growth that we’re aware of and believe will happen over the next 6 to 12 months. So, that’s why we have the price increases today because the car ordered today will arrive, in some cases, a year from now. So, we have a very long wait list, and we’re obviously not demand-limited. We are production-limited by -- very much production-limited.As you can also see, a strong brand gives pricing power & this is just one other lever Tesla can pull in order to keep delivering strong financial results.All in all, there are several powerful economic moats that should help Tesla protect itself from the ever-emerging competition.OutlookI’ll be honest, it’s pretty difficult to give an exact figure on the potential opportunity for Tesla – particularly if the company succeeds with its full self-driving, the robotaxi network, or even the Optimus robot. I think all any shareholder needs to know is that the opportunity is huge, and it’s only getting bigger.If I take a step back and focus solely on the EV market, the opportunity remains both fast growing and enormous. According to Facts and Factors, the global electric vehicle market is expected to grow from a size of $185 billion in 2021 to $980 billion by 2028, implying a CAGR of 24.5% over that period – with Tesla leading the charge (geddit?).ManagementWhen it comes to fast-paced, innovative companies, I always aim to find founder-led businesses where inside ownership is high. I’ll start by highlighting that, even though Elon Musk is not the founder of Tesla, he certainly has his heart and soul in the business. If he walks like a founder and talks like a founder, I’m more than happy to consider Elon Musk a founder.Tesla Q1'22 Investor PresentationI also want to invest in companies where leadership has skin-in-the-game, and Mr. Musk has this in abundance. This is a CEO who understands what skin-in-the-game truly means, as he shows in this 2019 tweet.But do the numbers back that up? They certainly do, as Elon Musk owns ~25% of the company – no wonder he’s the richest man in the world!Tesla 2021 Proxy Filing / ExcelI also like to take a quick look on Glassdoor to get an idea about the culture of a company, and Tesla gets somewhat underwhelming scores from the ~7,000 reviews left by employees. Any score over 4.0 is impressive, and Tesla fails to obtain this in any category. The score is particularly low on Work/Life Balance, which probably isn’t a surprise to anyone – whilst Elon Musk has undoubtedly driven the world forward with some of his companies, he also has a reputation of being tough to work for. He has incredibly high expectations from himself and those around him – unfortunately, this appears to have led to a culture within Tesla that I would not be too happy with as a shareholder.GlassdoorFinancialsTesla’s financial profile over the last few years is something of a turnaround story, starting with their balance sheet. Back in 2018, the company had almost 3x as much debt as they had cash. Fast-forward to 2021, and that has completed flipped, with cash now representing more than 3x their debt. This has been driven by the company's ability to ramp up sales and bring in additional cash flow to shore up the balance sheet, as well as raising funds through additional share offerings. The bankruptcy risk to Tesla around 2018 was well documented, but clearly now it is a company in an extremely robust financial position that will serve it will for the future.Tesla SEC Filings / ExcelRevenue growth has been lumpy over this period, at times impacted by the needed ramp up of its production facilities as well as the impact of lockdowns during the pandemic – but 2021 saw revenue absolutely soar as the world opened up again, and consumer spending took off like a rocket.Margins and cash flow for this business are impressive, whichever way you look at it. The EBIT margin has seen astounding expansion for such a capital-intensive business, and similarly the ~$11.5 billion in operating cash flow in 2021 is incredibly strong. It makes you wonder how a business goes from the brink of bankruptcy to a cash generating machine in just a few years.ValuationAs with all high growth, innovative companies, valuation is tough – and for a company who believe their future products to be life changing, it is even more difficult. I believe that my approach will give me an idea about whether Tesla is insanely overvalued or undervalued, but valuation is the final thing I look at - the quality of the business itself is far more important in the long run.Tesla SEC Filings / ExcelMy model assumes revenue growth of 50% for 2022, following Tesla's guidance of 50% YoY growth in vehicle deliveries driven by the continued strong demand and production ramp up despite the continued issues in Shanghai. I have then assumed a slowdown in revenue growth through to 2026. It’s perfectly reasonable to think that this is too conservative, however I would always prefer to be too conservative rather than too optimistic.I have also assumed a gradual margin expansion as Tesla continues to benefit from its scale, and those investments in vertically integrated aspects of its business start to play out.I assumed that shares outstanding will increase by 5% annually through to 2026. Tesla has a history of diluting shareholders, however I still think that this assumption is prudent – as Tesla continues to produce more cash, I doubt it will continue to dilute shareholders at a dramatic rate.Finally, I’ve chosen a wide range of EV / FCF multiples for the low, medium, and high scenario. This represents my own uncertainty about the future of Tesla, the fact that it is priced for a lot of success, but also the fact that it could see success that is far beyond my imagination.Put this all together, and my mid-range scenario implies an 11% CAGR of Tesla shares from today through to 2026.RisksThere are a number of potential risks for Tesla, as my fellow Seeking Alpha highlights in this detailed article. I do think the approach is very \"glass half empty,\" but it is useful for potential shareholders to familiarize themselves with these risks.In my eyes, there are a couple of main risks. First is competition – EVs are growing in popularity, and there are a number of new EV-specialist car manufacturers as well as the incumbents who are all coming to do battle with Tesla. Clearly, Tesla has a huge head start, but shareholders should keep an eye on any competitors who appear to be closing this gap.The second risk primarily relates to China. Clearly there are geopolitical risks, and China is also one of the most competitive markets for electric vehicles – and, it’s likely to grow and be the largest. If Tesla is impacted by geopolitics, then it could suffer greatly. Just take a look at the below table of car sales over the past few years to see the impact that China is having on Tesla’s business, with its growth outpacing the US and Other substantially.Tesla 2021 Annual ReportThe final risk is that of a recession, which could certainly be looming. Whilst I think Tesla does benefit from secular tailwinds, I would not be surprised to see consumers cut back on spending for new, somewhat luxury cars - and I'd expect the automotive industry to be hit particularly hard.SummaryAn investment in Tesla is certainly not for the faint hearted, and I want to highlight that my current view on Tesla is a tentative buy rating. I wouldn’t be surprised to hear either of the following statements in 2030:“Remember when we used to drive cars? The fact that we’ve got these Tesla robotaxis is crazy when you think about it, they’ve taken over the world!”Or“Tesla sure was overhyped. They really struggled in China, and in the end they ended up just being a car company – despite what I’d seen on Reddit, poor Elon.”Personally, I believe that Tesla does have a bright future – even if I can’t predict it with much certainty, there are so many tailwinds driving this brilliant company forward. The share price today offers a much more attractive risk / reward profile, and that I why I would be happy to add this ground-breaking company to my investment portfolio.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":522,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":true}