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  ·2023-12-13
  $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ Best stock to hold
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  ·2023-10-25
  Hope for the best for stability in the market
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  ·2023-02-24
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  Tesla: Automaker Or Tech Company? My Take And My Investing Choice
  SummaryThe big dilemma about Tesla, Inc. lies in the answer to a question: is Tesla an automaker or
  Tesla: Automaker Or Tech Company? My Take And My Investing Choice
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  ·2022-12-15
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  The Fed Should Pause Its Rate Hikes Now That Inflation Has Slowed Significantly. But It Won’t
  The Federal Reserve should declare an immediate cease fire in its war against inflation and hold its
  The Fed Should Pause Its Rate Hikes Now That Inflation Has Slowed Significantly. But It Won’t
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  ·2022-12-12
  $Futu Holdings Limited(FUTU)$
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  ·2022-12-11
  $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$
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  ·2022-12-10
  $Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$
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  $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$
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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ASML\">$ASML Holding NV(ASML)$&nbsp;</a>Best stock to hold&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ASML\">$ASML Holding NV(ASML)$&nbsp;</a>Best stock to hold&nbsp;","text":"$ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ Best stock to 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market","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/234298361405448","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":355,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9957624427,"gmtCreate":1677230475969,"gmtModify":1677230479744,"author":{"id":"3576550818064904","authorId":"3576550818064904","name":"Runningdown","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef91444757abfa72f3ede25e971f5398","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576550818064904","authorIdStr":"3576550818064904"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmmm","listText":"Hmmm","text":"Hmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9957624427","repostId":"2313059413","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2313059413","pubTimestamp":1677226034,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2313059413?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-02-24 16:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: Automaker Or Tech Company? My Take And My Investing Choice","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2313059413","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThe big dilemma about Tesla, Inc. lies in the answer to a question: is Tesla an automaker or ","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>The big dilemma about Tesla, Inc. lies in the answer to a question: is Tesla an automaker or a tech company?</li><li>In this article, I would like to share how I have come to find the answer.</li><li>I will share my investing choice, talking about Tesla&#39;s current valuation and potential investing alternatives.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43d9444e059df9e26126c6a2ea34e297\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>coffeekai</span></p><h2>Introduction</h2><p>Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) is one of those stocks - and companies - very difficult to write about without being caught in the fight between fans and haters. This is why, though quite interested in the automotive industry, I have been hesitant to writeabout it. In truth, there has been a lot of buzz about electric vehicles (&#34;EVs&#34;), and I think it hard to deny Tesla was a stock that experienced a lot of hype, leading to extreme valuations. This has made me cautious about it, as I know buzz and hype can be exciting but can lead to rash investing decisions.</p><p>To be clear from the beginning of this article, I am no Tesla detractor. However, I am no Tesla investor, either. I do think Tesla is a great company, whose future is probably going to be quite bright. On the other hand, thereare a few things about the stock that rule it out of my portfolio where I actually own three other automakers.</p><p>In this article, I will share for the first time my view on Tesla, hoping to present my thesis as objectively as possible. At the same time, I would like to show why I am currently building up a position in what seems to me an underestimated competitor of Tesla.</p><h2>The big question about Tesla</h2><p>The first question I had to find an answer to assess Tesla was the following: what kind of company do I think Tesla is?</p><p>We generally find two answers that revolve around these two concepts:</p><ol><li>Tesla is a tech company</li><li>Tesla is an automaker.</li></ol><p>I know things can be more complex, but as far as my research goes I really think this is the crossroad where two different investing views and strategies diverge.</p><p>I find myself agreeing with the second answer: Tesla is an automaker. This is somewhat supported by what the company states in its 10-k.</p><blockquote>We design, develop, manufacture, sell and lease high-performance fully electric vehicles and energy generation and storage systems, and offer services related to our products. We generally sell our products directly to customers, and continue to grow our customer-facing infrastructure through a global network of vehicle service centers, Mobile Service, body shops, Supercharger stations and Destination Chargers to accelerate the widespread adoption of our products. We emphasize performance, attractive styling and the safety of our users and workforce in the design and manufacture of our products and are continuing to develop full self-driving technology for improved safety. We also strive to lower the cost of ownership for our customers through continuous efforts to reduce manufacturing costs and by offering financial and other services tailored to our products.</blockquote><p>To be fair, these words are not only about electric vehicles manufacturing, as Tesla also claims to be focusing on energy generation and storage systems as well as on developing full self-driving technology (&#34;FSD&#34;). However, I see these other activities as necessarily linked to the manufacturing one. Tesla is indeed disruptive, and it has been a true pioneer, but I see it as the one company that redesigns what all other automakers will need to become to survive and thrive.</p><p>Why do I think it important to answer this question? Simply put, it tells us what industry we think Tesla is a part of. This is quite important when we do a valuation of Tesla, as we need to look at the multiples of the industry.</p><p>Tesla&#39;s financials support this view, too. In fact, if we look at the income statement streams chart, we clearly see how auto sales have the lion&#39;s share of total revenues, with $67.2 billion out of the total $81.5 billion (82.5%). If we consider the auto segment as a whole, including leasing and regulatory credits, Tesla earns 87.7% of its total revenues through activities linked to electric vehicles.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27e4e531b8126431a0d311e3260e386c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>created by incomestatementguy on reddit.it</span></p><p>In addition, it seems like Elon Musk himself thinks about Tesla as a &#34;volume carmaker&#34; in the &#34;automotive market,&#34; words he used during the last earnings call.</p><h2>Tesla&#39;s financials</h2><p>It is hard not to like Tesla&#39;s financials, especially if we look at their unfolding through the past decade. We have a CAGR revenue growth of almost 45%, while gross profit grew at a CAGR of 46.5% and EBITDA saw a stunning 81.6% CAGR from 2013 to the end of 2022.</p><p>In recent years, the company has turned profitable, and since 2020 its net income has moved up from $721 million to $12.56 billion, which is a CAGR of 317.31%. This is what happens when a company finally reaches scale.</p><p>Its balance sheet is strong, with just $1 billion of long-term debt and more than $22 billion in cash and short-term investments.</p><p>Free cash flow (&#34;FCF&#34;) is also strong, with $4.2 billion generated at the end of 2022 vs. the -$32.5 million reported at the end of 2013. The only flaw is that Tesla paid $1.56 billion in stock-based compensation (&#34;SBC&#34;), which actually makes the real free cash flow available to investors just $1 billion. In fact, as of now SBC is added to net income to calculate the final FCF, but, in reality, it is an expense that should be moved down to financing activities and be accounted for as an expense. Therefore, we have to subtract the amount spent on SBC twice to offset the current accounting rule that sees it as an addition, and then to subtract the real expense from the previous amount.</p><p>However, on a positive note, Tesla seems to be reducing its SBC, since in 2021 it paid over $2.1 billion for this. But, still, the dilutive effect is sensible.</p><p>In terms of profitability, the company is best in class. Here I would like to show one of my favorite graphs Tesla shares with investors. We see that, while the average selling price (ASP) moves down and then stabilizes around $55,000, the operating margin goes steadily up, coming in at 17%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6750ec65a212dc9254efea6c82c89a41\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Tesla Q4 2022 Shareholder Deck</span></p><p>This is another way to prove how it was vital for Tesla to reach scale, as it has done in recent years. Now, every dollar of additional revenue is more valuable because of increasingly good operating efficiency.</p><p>Tesla reported 1.31 million cars sold in 2022 and expects to sell 1.8 million vehicles by the end of this fiscal year. Its plan was bold, targeting a 50% CAGR from 2020 to 2023. It is rather easy to think Tesla seems able to reach this goal.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c79730c77c37c3638501639b6d53d9ab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"261\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Tesla Q4 2022 Shareholder Deck</span></p><p>So, if everything is so bright, why am I not investing in Tesla?</p><h2>Why I am not a Tesla shareholder</h2><p>I have some perplexities about Tesla&#39;s expectations for the future, which inevitably impact my view of its valuation.</p><p>Before we move on, let me state once again that I am no Tesla bear, nor do I think the stock should be shorted, even though it may have indeed reached a recent peak. However, this is not my investing style, since I look for companies to hold for a decade or two.</p><p>Let me share what I am thinking about Tesla&#39;s upcoming years.</p><p>The first thing I wonder about is linked to what automotive segment the company wants to address. We saw how Mr. Musk considers Tesla a volume carmaker. But we don&#39;t know exactly what kind of volume carmaker Tesla wants to be. Does it aim at being an 8 million one, like Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY), General Motors (GM) or Toyota (TM)? Does it aim at selling between 2 and 3 million vehicles per year, like Mercedes (OTCPK:MBGAF) or BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY) do? The answer to this question is quite important for a forecast.</p><p>Currently, Tesla manufactures four vehicles: the Model 3, Y, S and X. While Model 3 and Model Y have a base price for mass-market appeal, the other two don&#39;t. Still, both Model 3 and Model Y have a starting selling price between $40,000 and $60,000, which is not exactly the price range to address all consumers. The other two models have a starting selling price around $100,000.</p><p>Tesla has written more than once that it is committed to making its manufacturing process more efficient to bring down the average selling price. However, there are other automakers that are able to sell electric vehicles at more affordable prices. Tesla may start manufacturing subcompact vehicles, but this would benefit mostly volumes over margins, as that segment is highly competitive and many automakers are already or will soon be producing electric cars for this market.</p><p>The other option is that Tesla turns into a premium volume automaker. This will make it compete with brands such as Mercedes, BMW, Audi, Lexus and others. While this is a higher margin segment, volumes are a bit lower, with Mercedes and BMW selling about 2 million vehicles per year. Tesla may do a bit more, but I don&#39;t see it grabbing away from brands with such a strength all their market share.</p><p>In fact, Mercedes&#39; electric car portfolio seems to be already richer than Tesla&#39;s.</p><p>In other words, I have a hard time thinking Tesla will be able to grow significantly among premium brands without finding hard competition with well-established and highly-appreciated brands.</p><p>On the other hand, Tesla has the advantage in that it doesn&#39;t have to cannibalize its old models, while all other OEMs do. However, while we are seeing the same thing happening with Netflix (NFLX) and its other streaming competitors, where the latter have to cannibalize their profitable cable business to build up their own streaming platform, in the case of automakers, the shift toward EVs is actually generating higher profitability.</p><h2>My take: The issue with Tesla&#39;s valuation and what already I own instead of it</h2><p>It may not sound that original saying that what keeps me from investing in Tesla is its sky-high valuation. But let&#39;s recall that oftentimes the easiest and most renowned investing principles are forgotten when buzz and hype take place. For sure, Tesla is exciting and this is why we should double down and caution.</p><p>On my side, I don&#39;t immediately run away from a stock because I see a high P/E or a high P/FCF multiple. For example, staying within the automotive industry, I own Ferrari (RACE). I would never compare Ferrari to Tesla. They are too different. But it is just an example to show how I am willing to pay a higher price when I think it is worth it.</p><p>However, the big difference I see between Ferrari and Tesla is that Ferrari&#39;s future results are much more predictable than Tesla&#39;s. Still, a jewel like Ferrari trades a lower multiples compared to Tesla: Ferrari trades at a 39 fwd P/E vs. Tesla&#39;s 58, its fwd EV/EBITDA is 21.4 vs. Tesla&#39;s 31, its P/FCF is 37.3 vs. Tesla&#39;s 44.8. And this happens while Ferrari&#39;s profitability metrics are better than Tesla&#39;s: 24% EBIT margin vs. 16.8%; net income margin at 18.4% for Ferrari while for Tesla it is at 15.4%, return on equity of 40.6% for Ferrari and at 32.5% for Tesla.</p><p>Coming down to a more realistic comparison, so that we don&#39;t risk to mix apples with oranges, let&#39;s look at Mercedes and compare it to Tesla (in bold is the better result between the two):</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/419bc889efd58b6e8e2d7b158e5d56b1\" tg-width=\"407\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla is the winner, but Mercedes is not very far behind, especially as we move down the income statement. Now, let&#39;s see how the market prices Tesla&#39;s leading position compared to Mercedes:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e9e9e951f1e5f0e7649a9c1478da748\" tg-width=\"378\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>To me, the difference is too wide, especially if we consider Mercedes&#39; high-quality strategy that is effectively managing to increase the company&#39;s profitability.</p><p>This is why I actually own Mercedes as my favorite pick among premium luxury automakers.</p><p>My third pick - even though, as I have tried to explain, I think we are once again at risk of comparing chalk and cheese - is Stellantis N.V. (STLA). If we look at automakers that produce affordable vehicles truly addressed to customers without deep pockets, then I think the Stellantis bull case almost speaks for itself as soon as we look at its financials and at its multiples. We are talking about a double-digit margin automaker, with incredibly skilled management, lots of tailwinds going for it (i.e., synergies), low geopolitical risk, etc. trading at unreasonable multiples of a 3 fwd P/E, a 1.2 fwd (EV/EBITDA) and a 2.3 P/FCF. I am not kidding. The company trades as if it were to go bankrupt tomorrow, while it is swimming in cash.</p><p>Let me share my discounted cash flow (&#34;DCF&#34;) model on Tesla, just to check if my thesis may be supported by future cash flow. Even projecting a 5 year free cash flow (&#34;FCF&#34;) growth rate of 45% and then assuming a 9% perpetual growth rate (very generous assumptions), I still find TSLA stock should not trade over $150.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c07f13a52a88af371a1b262a496e9e32\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"205\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Author, with data from SA and own future forecast</span></p><p>As I said, it is not my investing style to short a stock or make short-term trades. I am in for the long term. But I think Tesla, Inc.&#39;s stock got a bit ahead of itself, especially given the fact that it has reached such volumes that will make it harder for the company to keep on growing at the fast pace investors are expecting. Many investors have for sure gained a lot of money with Tesla stock, while many other have lost a ton of it. As for me, I keep on studying Tesla, Inc. as an investor interested in the industry, but I don&#39;t see TSLA stock as appealing as other opportunities. This is why I rate Tesla, Inc. as a hold.</p><p><i>This article is written by Luca Socci for reference only. Please note the risks.</i></p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: Automaker Or Tech Company? My Take And My Investing Choice</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: Automaker Or Tech Company? My Take And My Investing Choice\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-02-24 16:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4580350-tesla-automaker-or-tech-company-my-take-and-my-investing-choice><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe big dilemma about Tesla, Inc. lies in the answer to a question: is Tesla an automaker or a tech company?In this article, I would like to share how I have come to find the answer.I will ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4580350-tesla-automaker-or-tech-company-my-take-and-my-investing-choice\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","BK4099":"汽车制造商","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","BK4588":"碎股","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4574":"无人驾驶","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4580350-tesla-automaker-or-tech-company-my-take-and-my-investing-choice","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2313059413","content_text":"SummaryThe big dilemma about Tesla, Inc. lies in the answer to a question: is Tesla an automaker or a tech company?In this article, I would like to share how I have come to find the answer.I will share my investing choice, talking about Tesla's current valuation and potential investing alternatives.coffeekaiIntroductionTesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) is one of those stocks - and companies - very difficult to write about without being caught in the fight between fans and haters. This is why, though quite interested in the automotive industry, I have been hesitant to writeabout it. In truth, there has been a lot of buzz about electric vehicles (\"EVs\"), and I think it hard to deny Tesla was a stock that experienced a lot of hype, leading to extreme valuations. This has made me cautious about it, as I know buzz and hype can be exciting but can lead to rash investing decisions.To be clear from the beginning of this article, I am no Tesla detractor. However, I am no Tesla investor, either. I do think Tesla is a great company, whose future is probably going to be quite bright. On the other hand, thereare a few things about the stock that rule it out of my portfolio where I actually own three other automakers.In this article, I will share for the first time my view on Tesla, hoping to present my thesis as objectively as possible. At the same time, I would like to show why I am currently building up a position in what seems to me an underestimated competitor of Tesla.The big question about TeslaThe first question I had to find an answer to assess Tesla was the following: what kind of company do I think Tesla is?We generally find two answers that revolve around these two concepts:Tesla is a tech companyTesla is an automaker.I know things can be more complex, but as far as my research goes I really think this is the crossroad where two different investing views and strategies diverge.I find myself agreeing with the second answer: Tesla is an automaker. This is somewhat supported by what the company states in its 10-k.We design, develop, manufacture, sell and lease high-performance fully electric vehicles and energy generation and storage systems, and offer services related to our products. We generally sell our products directly to customers, and continue to grow our customer-facing infrastructure through a global network of vehicle service centers, Mobile Service, body shops, Supercharger stations and Destination Chargers to accelerate the widespread adoption of our products. We emphasize performance, attractive styling and the safety of our users and workforce in the design and manufacture of our products and are continuing to develop full self-driving technology for improved safety. We also strive to lower the cost of ownership for our customers through continuous efforts to reduce manufacturing costs and by offering financial and other services tailored to our products.To be fair, these words are not only about electric vehicles manufacturing, as Tesla also claims to be focusing on energy generation and storage systems as well as on developing full self-driving technology (\"FSD\"). However, I see these other activities as necessarily linked to the manufacturing one. Tesla is indeed disruptive, and it has been a true pioneer, but I see it as the one company that redesigns what all other automakers will need to become to survive and thrive.Why do I think it important to answer this question? Simply put, it tells us what industry we think Tesla is a part of. This is quite important when we do a valuation of Tesla, as we need to look at the multiples of the industry.Tesla's financials support this view, too. In fact, if we look at the income statement streams chart, we clearly see how auto sales have the lion's share of total revenues, with $67.2 billion out of the total $81.5 billion (82.5%). If we consider the auto segment as a whole, including leasing and regulatory credits, Tesla earns 87.7% of its total revenues through activities linked to electric vehicles.created by incomestatementguy on reddit.itIn addition, it seems like Elon Musk himself thinks about Tesla as a \"volume carmaker\" in the \"automotive market,\" words he used during the last earnings call.Tesla's financialsIt is hard not to like Tesla's financials, especially if we look at their unfolding through the past decade. We have a CAGR revenue growth of almost 45%, while gross profit grew at a CAGR of 46.5% and EBITDA saw a stunning 81.6% CAGR from 2013 to the end of 2022.In recent years, the company has turned profitable, and since 2020 its net income has moved up from $721 million to $12.56 billion, which is a CAGR of 317.31%. This is what happens when a company finally reaches scale.Its balance sheet is strong, with just $1 billion of long-term debt and more than $22 billion in cash and short-term investments.Free cash flow (\"FCF\") is also strong, with $4.2 billion generated at the end of 2022 vs. the -$32.5 million reported at the end of 2013. The only flaw is that Tesla paid $1.56 billion in stock-based compensation (\"SBC\"), which actually makes the real free cash flow available to investors just $1 billion. In fact, as of now SBC is added to net income to calculate the final FCF, but, in reality, it is an expense that should be moved down to financing activities and be accounted for as an expense. Therefore, we have to subtract the amount spent on SBC twice to offset the current accounting rule that sees it as an addition, and then to subtract the real expense from the previous amount.However, on a positive note, Tesla seems to be reducing its SBC, since in 2021 it paid over $2.1 billion for this. But, still, the dilutive effect is sensible.In terms of profitability, the company is best in class. Here I would like to show one of my favorite graphs Tesla shares with investors. We see that, while the average selling price (ASP) moves down and then stabilizes around $55,000, the operating margin goes steadily up, coming in at 17%.Tesla Q4 2022 Shareholder DeckThis is another way to prove how it was vital for Tesla to reach scale, as it has done in recent years. Now, every dollar of additional revenue is more valuable because of increasingly good operating efficiency.Tesla reported 1.31 million cars sold in 2022 and expects to sell 1.8 million vehicles by the end of this fiscal year. Its plan was bold, targeting a 50% CAGR from 2020 to 2023. It is rather easy to think Tesla seems able to reach this goal.Tesla Q4 2022 Shareholder DeckSo, if everything is so bright, why am I not investing in Tesla?Why I am not a Tesla shareholderI have some perplexities about Tesla's expectations for the future, which inevitably impact my view of its valuation.Before we move on, let me state once again that I am no Tesla bear, nor do I think the stock should be shorted, even though it may have indeed reached a recent peak. However, this is not my investing style, since I look for companies to hold for a decade or two.Let me share what I am thinking about Tesla's upcoming years.The first thing I wonder about is linked to what automotive segment the company wants to address. We saw how Mr. Musk considers Tesla a volume carmaker. But we don't know exactly what kind of volume carmaker Tesla wants to be. Does it aim at being an 8 million one, like Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY), General Motors (GM) or Toyota (TM)? Does it aim at selling between 2 and 3 million vehicles per year, like Mercedes (OTCPK:MBGAF) or BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY) do? The answer to this question is quite important for a forecast.Currently, Tesla manufactures four vehicles: the Model 3, Y, S and X. While Model 3 and Model Y have a base price for mass-market appeal, the other two don't. Still, both Model 3 and Model Y have a starting selling price between $40,000 and $60,000, which is not exactly the price range to address all consumers. The other two models have a starting selling price around $100,000.Tesla has written more than once that it is committed to making its manufacturing process more efficient to bring down the average selling price. However, there are other automakers that are able to sell electric vehicles at more affordable prices. Tesla may start manufacturing subcompact vehicles, but this would benefit mostly volumes over margins, as that segment is highly competitive and many automakers are already or will soon be producing electric cars for this market.The other option is that Tesla turns into a premium volume automaker. This will make it compete with brands such as Mercedes, BMW, Audi, Lexus and others. While this is a higher margin segment, volumes are a bit lower, with Mercedes and BMW selling about 2 million vehicles per year. Tesla may do a bit more, but I don't see it grabbing away from brands with such a strength all their market share.In fact, Mercedes' electric car portfolio seems to be already richer than Tesla's.In other words, I have a hard time thinking Tesla will be able to grow significantly among premium brands without finding hard competition with well-established and highly-appreciated brands.On the other hand, Tesla has the advantage in that it doesn't have to cannibalize its old models, while all other OEMs do. However, while we are seeing the same thing happening with Netflix (NFLX) and its other streaming competitors, where the latter have to cannibalize their profitable cable business to build up their own streaming platform, in the case of automakers, the shift toward EVs is actually generating higher profitability.My take: The issue with Tesla's valuation and what already I own instead of itIt may not sound that original saying that what keeps me from investing in Tesla is its sky-high valuation. But let's recall that oftentimes the easiest and most renowned investing principles are forgotten when buzz and hype take place. For sure, Tesla is exciting and this is why we should double down and caution.On my side, I don't immediately run away from a stock because I see a high P/E or a high P/FCF multiple. For example, staying within the automotive industry, I own Ferrari (RACE). I would never compare Ferrari to Tesla. They are too different. But it is just an example to show how I am willing to pay a higher price when I think it is worth it.However, the big difference I see between Ferrari and Tesla is that Ferrari's future results are much more predictable than Tesla's. Still, a jewel like Ferrari trades a lower multiples compared to Tesla: Ferrari trades at a 39 fwd P/E vs. Tesla's 58, its fwd EV/EBITDA is 21.4 vs. Tesla's 31, its P/FCF is 37.3 vs. Tesla's 44.8. And this happens while Ferrari's profitability metrics are better than Tesla's: 24% EBIT margin vs. 16.8%; net income margin at 18.4% for Ferrari while for Tesla it is at 15.4%, return on equity of 40.6% for Ferrari and at 32.5% for Tesla.Coming down to a more realistic comparison, so that we don't risk to mix apples with oranges, let's look at Mercedes and compare it to Tesla (in bold is the better result between the two):Tesla is the winner, but Mercedes is not very far behind, especially as we move down the income statement. Now, let's see how the market prices Tesla's leading position compared to Mercedes:To me, the difference is too wide, especially if we consider Mercedes' high-quality strategy that is effectively managing to increase the company's profitability.This is why I actually own Mercedes as my favorite pick among premium luxury automakers.My third pick - even though, as I have tried to explain, I think we are once again at risk of comparing chalk and cheese - is Stellantis N.V. (STLA). If we look at automakers that produce affordable vehicles truly addressed to customers without deep pockets, then I think the Stellantis bull case almost speaks for itself as soon as we look at its financials and at its multiples. We are talking about a double-digit margin automaker, with incredibly skilled management, lots of tailwinds going for it (i.e., synergies), low geopolitical risk, etc. trading at unreasonable multiples of a 3 fwd P/E, a 1.2 fwd (EV/EBITDA) and a 2.3 P/FCF. I am not kidding. The company trades as if it were to go bankrupt tomorrow, while it is swimming in cash.Let me share my discounted cash flow (\"DCF\") model on Tesla, just to check if my thesis may be supported by future cash flow. Even projecting a 5 year free cash flow (\"FCF\") growth rate of 45% and then assuming a 9% perpetual growth rate (very generous assumptions), I still find TSLA stock should not trade over $150.Author, with data from SA and own future forecastAs I said, it is not my investing style to short a stock or make short-term trades. I am in for the long term. But I think Tesla, Inc.'s stock got a bit ahead of itself, especially given the fact that it has reached such volumes that will make it harder for the company to keep on growing at the fast pace investors are expecting. Many investors have for sure gained a lot of money with Tesla stock, while many other have lost a ton of it. As for me, I keep on studying Tesla, Inc. as an investor interested in the industry, but I don't see TSLA stock as appealing as other opportunities. This is why I rate Tesla, Inc. as a hold.This article is written by Luca Socci for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":443,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9921691212,"gmtCreate":1671036229736,"gmtModify":1676538480244,"author":{"id":"3576550818064904","authorId":"3576550818064904","name":"Runningdown","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef91444757abfa72f3ede25e971f5398","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576550818064904","authorIdStr":"3576550818064904"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9921691212","repostId":"1132223607","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1132223607","pubTimestamp":1671009006,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1132223607?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-14 17:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Fed Should Pause Its Rate Hikes Now That Inflation Has Slowed Significantly. But It Won’t","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132223607","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The Federal Reserve should declare an immediate cease fire in its war against inflation and hold its","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The Federal Reserve should declare an immediate cease fire in its war against inflation and hold its benchmark interest rate steady instead of raising the federal funds by a half percentage point to a range of 4.25% to 4.50%, as expected at its meeting that ends Wednesday.</p><p>With the relatively benign report on the consumer price index in November released on Tuesday, the Fed now has “compelling evidence” that it has achieved its immediate goal of seeing a significant slowing in inflation.</p><p>The CPI was better than expected in November, with headline inflation rising just 0.1% (1.2% annualized) and core inflation up 0.2% (2.4% annualized).</p><p>The U.S. stock market SPX, DJIA, COMP on Tuesday initially greeted the CPI report as confirmation that the Fed could begin to let up, but by midday the realization hit that the Fed is going to keep hiking rates.</p><h2>Better than the media says</h2><p>The CPI report was actually better than it’s being portrayed by the media, which continue to focus irrationally on year-over-year changes in inflation rather than looking at what has happened since the Fed began raising interest rates nine months ago. For instance, what are we to make of. this incoherent headline in the New York Times: “U.S. Inflation Cools as Consumer Prices Rise 7.1 Percent”?</p><p>If we don’t want to miss the turning points, we have to shorten our horizon to something less than a year, but not so short that it’s all noise and no signal. Three months is about right.</p><p>In March 2022, when the Fed first raised rates, inflation was accelerating. From January to March, the CPI had risen at an 11.3% annual rate. That was an alarming inflation rate which called for action by the Fed.</p><p>But then the Fed raised interest rates at six straight meetings, going from near zero to near 4% and now inflation is decelerating. From September to November, inflation rose at a 3.7% annual rate.</p><p>That is significant progress in the most relevant measure of inflation.</p><h2>The wrong perspective</h2><p>The progress is much less apparent when the figures are reported on a year-over-year basis, as most media outlets do. From November 2021 to November 2022, inflation rose 7.1% — but that figure is meaningless to our understanding of what the Fed has accomplished because that time frame also includes five months of high inflation from before the Fed acted.</p><p>Because rate hikes take some time to have an impact on prices and on the economy, they didn’t really start to bite until July. In the five months since then, inflation has slowed to a 2.5% annualized rate, noticeable to anyone who’s looking. The unprecedented rise in interest rates is working to cool off price increases.</p><p>The progress is even greater when you take into account that almost all of the inflation we’ve suffered recently is coming from higher rents, which are now rising at a 10% annual rate in a lagged response to last year’s incredible 20%+ increase in home prices and tight rental markets.</p><h2>Rents still rising as home prices fall</h2><p>Home prices have now begun to fall in most regions of the U.S. Rents for new tenants have also begun to fall, but rents paid by continuing tenants have lagged behind and could take another year or longer to catch up, according to research by economists at Goldman Sachs. That’s because rents on existing leases tend to reset on an annual basis.</p><p>Rents are used to compute the costs not only of renters but of homeowners as well. It’s as if we measured champagne prices by looking at how much beer costs.</p><p>With more than 900,000 multifamily housing units now under construction, the supply constraints will soon begin to ease, reducing pressure on rents, when those units hit the market, likely in the next year or so.</p><p>Rents have an outsized influence on the CPI, because rents are used to compute the costs not only of renters but of homeowners as well. It’s as if we measured champagne prices by looking at how much beer costs. Yes, there’s some correlation most of the time, but not always.</p><p>Using rents to measure homeowners’ costs might be an acceptable methodology in normal times, but not now. Based on the increase in rents, the CPI showed that shelter costs for homeowners rose at a 8% annual rate in November. No one believes that’s true. Most homeowners have a fixed-rate mortgage, so principal and interest payments haven’t gone up.</p><h2>The right perspective</h2><p>The best thing to do in this situation is to recognize that we need to exclude shelter costs (which accounts for a third of the CPI) if we want to see where underlying inflation is heading.</p><p>“Substantial disagreement about the correct way to measure shelter inflation argues for looking at inflation measures that put less weight on shelter inflation, not more, when the decision is of greater consequence,” wrote Goldman Sachs economists Ronnie Walker and David Mericle in a note published in October.</p><p>The CPI excluding shelter fell 0.2% in November and has risen at just a 1.3% annual rate over the past three months.</p><p>Even Fed Chair Jerome Powell has acknowledged that a sudden drop in home prices won’t show up in the headline CPI for months, but he’s not acting like he quite believes it. If he did, he’d urge his colleagues at the Fed to pause now and let the full impact of 375 basis points of tightening work on the economy.</p><p>We know, however, that the Fed won’t pause. The Fed lost too much credibility last year when it missed the rapid increase in inflation as the economy emerged from its pandemic lockdown, and now the Fed is scrambling to restore the public’s trust as an inflation fighter.</p><p>Unfortunately, that makes a recession nearly inevitable, because the Fed is going to do what it always does: Raise rates too far and push the economy into a job-killing recession.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed Should Pause Its Rate Hikes Now That Inflation Has Slowed Significantly. But It Won’t</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed Should Pause Its Rate Hikes Now That Inflation Has Slowed Significantly. But It Won’t\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-14 17:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-u-s-inflation-rate-in-november-was-not-7-1-as-you-were-told-it-was-3-7-11670968283?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Federal Reserve should declare an immediate cease fire in its war against inflation and hold its benchmark interest rate steady instead of raising the federal funds by a half percentage point to a...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-u-s-inflation-rate-in-november-was-not-7-1-as-you-were-told-it-was-3-7-11670968283?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-u-s-inflation-rate-in-november-was-not-7-1-as-you-were-told-it-was-3-7-11670968283?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132223607","content_text":"The Federal Reserve should declare an immediate cease fire in its war against inflation and hold its benchmark interest rate steady instead of raising the federal funds by a half percentage point to a range of 4.25% to 4.50%, as expected at its meeting that ends Wednesday.With the relatively benign report on the consumer price index in November released on Tuesday, the Fed now has “compelling evidence” that it has achieved its immediate goal of seeing a significant slowing in inflation.The CPI was better than expected in November, with headline inflation rising just 0.1% (1.2% annualized) and core inflation up 0.2% (2.4% annualized).The U.S. stock market SPX, DJIA, COMP on Tuesday initially greeted the CPI report as confirmation that the Fed could begin to let up, but by midday the realization hit that the Fed is going to keep hiking rates.Better than the media saysThe CPI report was actually better than it’s being portrayed by the media, which continue to focus irrationally on year-over-year changes in inflation rather than looking at what has happened since the Fed began raising interest rates nine months ago. For instance, what are we to make of. this incoherent headline in the New York Times: “U.S. Inflation Cools as Consumer Prices Rise 7.1 Percent”?If we don’t want to miss the turning points, we have to shorten our horizon to something less than a year, but not so short that it’s all noise and no signal. Three months is about right.In March 2022, when the Fed first raised rates, inflation was accelerating. From January to March, the CPI had risen at an 11.3% annual rate. That was an alarming inflation rate which called for action by the Fed.But then the Fed raised interest rates at six straight meetings, going from near zero to near 4% and now inflation is decelerating. From September to November, inflation rose at a 3.7% annual rate.That is significant progress in the most relevant measure of inflation.The wrong perspectiveThe progress is much less apparent when the figures are reported on a year-over-year basis, as most media outlets do. From November 2021 to November 2022, inflation rose 7.1% — but that figure is meaningless to our understanding of what the Fed has accomplished because that time frame also includes five months of high inflation from before the Fed acted.Because rate hikes take some time to have an impact on prices and on the economy, they didn’t really start to bite until July. In the five months since then, inflation has slowed to a 2.5% annualized rate, noticeable to anyone who’s looking. The unprecedented rise in interest rates is working to cool off price increases.The progress is even greater when you take into account that almost all of the inflation we’ve suffered recently is coming from higher rents, which are now rising at a 10% annual rate in a lagged response to last year’s incredible 20%+ increase in home prices and tight rental markets.Rents still rising as home prices fallHome prices have now begun to fall in most regions of the U.S. Rents for new tenants have also begun to fall, but rents paid by continuing tenants have lagged behind and could take another year or longer to catch up, according to research by economists at Goldman Sachs. That’s because rents on existing leases tend to reset on an annual basis.Rents are used to compute the costs not only of renters but of homeowners as well. It’s as if we measured champagne prices by looking at how much beer costs.With more than 900,000 multifamily housing units now under construction, the supply constraints will soon begin to ease, reducing pressure on rents, when those units hit the market, likely in the next year or so.Rents have an outsized influence on the CPI, because rents are used to compute the costs not only of renters but of homeowners as well. It’s as if we measured champagne prices by looking at how much beer costs. Yes, there’s some correlation most of the time, but not always.Using rents to measure homeowners’ costs might be an acceptable methodology in normal times, but not now. Based on the increase in rents, the CPI showed that shelter costs for homeowners rose at a 8% annual rate in November. No one believes that’s true. Most homeowners have a fixed-rate mortgage, so principal and interest payments haven’t gone up.The right perspectiveThe best thing to do in this situation is to recognize that we need to exclude shelter costs (which accounts for a third of the CPI) if we want to see where underlying inflation is heading.“Substantial disagreement about the correct way to measure shelter inflation argues for looking at inflation measures that put less weight on shelter inflation, not more, when the decision is of greater consequence,” wrote Goldman Sachs economists Ronnie Walker and David Mericle in a note published in October.The CPI excluding shelter fell 0.2% in November and has risen at just a 1.3% annual rate over the past three months.Even Fed Chair Jerome Powell has acknowledged that a sudden drop in home prices won’t show up in the headline CPI for months, but he’s not acting like he quite believes it. If he did, he’d urge his colleagues at the Fed to pause now and let the full impact of 375 basis points of tightening work on the economy.We know, however, that the Fed won’t pause. The Fed lost too much credibility last year when it missed the rapid increase in inflation as the economy emerged from its pandemic lockdown, and now the Fed is scrambling to restore the public’s trust as an inflation fighter.Unfortunately, that makes a recession nearly inevitable, because the Fed is going to do what it always does: Raise rates too far and push the economy into a job-killing recession.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":750,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9923671014,"gmtCreate":1670856946238,"gmtModify":1676538447067,"author":{"id":"3576550818064904","authorId":"3576550818064904","name":"Runningdown","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef91444757abfa72f3ede25e971f5398","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576550818064904","authorIdStr":"3576550818064904"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/FUTU\">$Futu Holdings 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