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- Trader404Trader404
  ·2022-05-25
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  A 'Lost Decade' Ahead For Markets?
  SummaryOver the last 120 years, valuations have consistently proved to be a strong predictor of futu
  A 'Lost Decade' Ahead For Markets?
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- Trader404Trader404
  ·2022-05-25
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  Apple: This Is A Blessing For Dividend Growth Investors
  SummaryIn this article, I start by explaining why I haven't added to Apple since last year using my
  Apple: This Is A Blessing For Dividend Growth Investors
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- Trader404Trader404
  ·2022-05-20
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- Trader404Trader404
  ·2022-05-19
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  Tesla: Never Bought it and Never Will
  Tesla stock is overvalued and Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk is bored.The company has yet to begin planning on a true mass market car.Tesla loses share wherever the middle class gets into the electric revolution.I am not a fan ofTesla or TSLA stock.I question the basic bull thesis. Having taken the luxury end of the market, the theory goes that Tesla can take the mass market by simply scaling up.But in markets where there is mass market demand forelectric vehicles , like China and Europe, Te
  Tesla: Never Bought it and Never Will
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19:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"A 'Lost Decade' Ahead For Markets?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2238349985","media":"Real Investment Advice","summary":"SummaryOver the last 120 years, valuations have consistently proved to be a strong predictor of futu","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Over the last 120 years, valuations have consistently proved to be a strong predictor of future returns with lost decades a common occurrence.</li><li>Given the low growth economic environment, low rates, and weak inflation, a market return significantly lower over the last decade is logical.</li><li>For investors, understanding potential returns from any given valuation point is crucial when considering putting “savings” at risk.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f94ec5a136143cd7ad29bbcd8d447c49\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"455\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>nevarpp/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p>Is a <i>“lost decade”</i> ahead for markets? We and many others have discussed a topic regarding financial market valuations and forward returns. Now, halfway into 2022, all of a sudden, the <i>“crazy talk”</i> of valuations seems a lot less crazy as bear markets growl.</p><p>However, it wasn’t that long ago the mainstream media discounted valuations and forward returns. For example, in December 2021, <b><i>Ben Carlson</i></b> recounted a presenter at a 2010-2011 conference who discussed valuations for a 60/40 allocation in the 95th percentile. Historically, that suggested investors were doomed for a low-return environment of roughly 2-3% over the next decade. As he states:</p><blockquote><i>“Instead, this happened.”</i></blockquote><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c90169df4b853eb6bf65a91748fb4f3\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"747\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><blockquote><i>“U.S. growth is up almost 20% per year. The S&amp;P 500 is up more than 16% per year. Small caps are up almost 14% per year. REITs rose more than 11% annually. Everyone has been dancing on the grave of value stocks for years now, yet they’re up nearly 14% per year over the last decade.</i></blockquote><blockquote><i>A simple 60/40 portfolio of U.S. stocks and bonds is up around 11% per year over the past 10 years.”</i></blockquote><p>Valuation and forward return assumptions were wrong then.</p><p>Or were they?</p><p><b>Real Market Returns</b></p><p>Over the last 120 years, valuations have consistently proved to be a strong predictor of future returns with lost decades a common occurrence. However, as we discussed previously in <b><i>“Rationalizing High Valuations:”</i></b></p><blockquote><i>“The mistake investors repeatedly make is dismissing the data in the short-term because there is no immediate impact on price returns.</i><i><b>Valuations by their very nature are HORRIBLE predictors of 12-month returns.</b></i><i> Investors avoid any investment strategy which has such a focus.</i><i><b> In the longer term, however, valuations are strong predictors of expected returns.”</b></i></blockquote><p>The chart below shows valuations and rolling 10-year total real returns. The obvious conclusion is that overpaying for value leads to lost decades.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10c4919c16d7114781eca70ca0e77438\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"625\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, let’s go back to Ben’s comment above. In 2009, valuations had corrected significantly, not only from the <i>“Financial Crisis”</i> peak but also from the preceding <i>“Dot.com”</i> bubble. Therefore, investors should have expected forward returns on equities to be higher over the next decade.</p><p>The chart below shows this more clearly. I highlighted the three previous points for reference.</p><ol><li><i>The “Dot.com” bubble peak.</i></li><li><i>January 2009 (Start of the current bull market cycle)</i></li><li><i>Ending valuation for 2021.</i></li></ol><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03e8f87a4aec06a73f2e6ebd29c7aa7f\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"601\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>From 2000 through 2010, a lost decade, annual returns after inflation were indeed negative. Such is what 43x earnings predicted at that time.</p><p><b>An Artificial Support</b></p><p>The Wall Street Journal recently discussed the last decade’s stellar returns.</p><blockquote><i>“Investors’ optimism is easier to understand if <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> looks at the 10 years through the end of 2021, during which the compound annual return of the benchmark S&amp;P 500 was a very good 16.6%. Not so far from what those surveyed extrapolated. Its components need closer scrutiny, though.”</i></blockquote><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f708a45c45c49c4711d84827db0a19eb\" tg-width=\"571\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>While the Wall Street Journal then tries to make the case that profit margins were responsible for the bulk of the gains, the reality is most of the excess returns came from just two unique sources.</p><ol><li><i>A decade of monetary interventions and zero interest rate policies; and,</i></li><li><i>A massive spending spree by</i> <i><b>corporations on share repurchases.</b></i></li></ol><blockquote><i>The chart below via Pavilion Global Markets shows the impact of stock buybacks on the market over the last decade. The decomposition of returns for the S&amp;P 500 breaks down as follows:</i></blockquote><ul><li><i>21% from multiple expansions,</i></li><li><i>31.4% from earnings,</i></li><li><i>7.1% from dividends, and</i></li><li><i><b>40.5% from share buybacks.</b></i></li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51be7216313c0927c9790e6221582a41\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"733\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><blockquote><i>In other words, in the absence of share repurchases, the stock market would not be pushing record highs of 4700 but instead levels closer to 2800.</i></blockquote><blockquote><i><b>Such would mean that stocks returned a total of about 3% annually or 42% in total over those 14 years.</b></i></blockquote><p>Given the low growth economic environment, low rates, and weak inflation, a market return significantly lower over the last decade is logical. However, given the injections of over <b><i>$43 Trillion in liquidity,</i></b> corporate stock buying, and the <b><i>artificial suppression of rates,</i></b> the outsized returns were not surprising.</p><p>The question is whether those artificial influences can be sustained for another decade.</p><p><b>Lost Decade Ahead?</b></p><blockquote><i>“As sour as the mood has seemed lately, the S&amp;P 500 would drop by another 45% or so if both margins and price/earnings multiples reverted to their long-run averages. Such would take the benchmark back to a level it first crossed five years ago.</i></blockquote><blockquote><i>That sounds alarmist, but stocks’ level in 2031 could be the same whether Mr. Grantham is correct or not about a sharp bear market. The alternative could be milder selloffs and recoveries along the lines of what we have experienced recently that lead stocks exactly nowhere.” – WSJ</i></blockquote><p><i>“Reversions to the mean”</i> is one of the most powerful forces in finance, The importance of which often gets lost during a raging <i>“bull market”</i> that seemingly defies all logic. Such was a point made by David Leonhardt previously:</p><blockquote><i>“The classic 1934 textbook ‘Security Analysis’ – by Benjamin Graham, a mentor to Warren Buffett, and David Dodd – urged investors to compare stock prices to earnings over</i><i><b>‘not less than five years, preferably seven or ten years.’</b></i><i> Ten years is enough time for the economy to go in and out of recession.</i><i><b>It’s enough time for faddish theories about new paradigms to come and go.</b></i><i>”</i></blockquote><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88f6ac93e586c7afc1e85e52d0aad891\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"596\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>What does such mean for future equity returns?</p><blockquote><i>“Vanguard regularly puts out expected returns for various asset classes using ranges in their estimates. Here are their latest 10 year forward return projections:</i></blockquote><blockquote><i>With a projected inflation rate of around 2% per year, the real return estimate for U.S. stocks is somewhere in the range of 0-2% real. They have growth stocks going negative after inflation over the next decade.” – Ben Carlson</i></blockquote><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a77454a1559f1a764003eb444630264e\" tg-width=\"749\" tg-height=\"654\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Notably, while such commentary is often cast as <i>“bearish,”</i> such forecasts are a reflection of:</p><ol><li><i>Math; and,</i></li><li><i>Reversion</i>s</li></ol><p>The second is critically essential.</p><p><b>The Most Powerful Force In Finance</b></p><p>Throughout history, whether it is valuations, prices, profits, or any other metric, eventually, and always, deviations revert to the mean. Such was a point discussed in <i><b>“The Market Is Disconnected From Everything.”</b></i></p><blockquote><i>“</i><i><b>Profit margins are probably the most mean-reverting series in finance, and if profit margins do not mean-revert, then something has gone badly wrong with capitalism.</b></i><i> If high profits do not attract competition, there is something wrong with the system, and it is not functioning properly.” – Jeremy Grantham</i></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5f6c42f677db962aed352d488d49244\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"517\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data Through 2021</span></p><p><b>Markets are not cheap by any measure.</b> If earnings growth fails to achieve high expectations, interest rates rise, or profit margins shrink due to inflation, the bull market thesis will collapse as <i>“expectations”</i> collide with <i>“reality.”</i></p><p><b>A Lesson To Be Learned</b></p><p>Such is not a dire prediction of doom and gloom, nor is it a <i>“bearish”</i> forecast. <b>It is just a function of how “</b><b><i>math works over long periods.”</i></b>However, during a <i>“raging bull market,”</i> investors always lose sight of long-term realities. As Howard Marks noted in a<i> Bloomberg interview</i>:</p><blockquote><i><b>“Fear of missing out has taken over from the fear of losing money.</b></i><i>If people are risk-tolerant and afraid of being out of the market,</i><i><b>they buy aggressively, in which case you can’t find any bargains. That’s where we are now. That’s what the Fed engineered by putting rates at zero.</b></i></blockquote><blockquote><b><i>“We are back to where we were a year ago—uncertainty, prospective returns that are even lower than they were a year ago, and higher asset prices than a year ago.</i></b><i> People are back to having to take on more risk to get return. At Oaktree, we are back to a cautious approach.</i><i><b>This is not the kind of environment in which you would be buying with both hands.</b></i></blockquote><blockquote><b><i>The prospective returns are low on everything.”</i></b></blockquote><p>For investors, understanding potential returns from any given valuation point is crucial when considering putting <i>“savings”</i> at risk. <b>Risk is an essential concept as it is the expectation of</b><b><i>“loss.”</i></b></p><p><b>The more risk investors take within a portfolio, the greater the destruction of capital when reversions occur.</b></p><p>This time is <i>“not different.”</i> The only difference will be what triggers the subsequent valuation reversion and when it eventually occurs.</p><p>Two previous bear markets taught many this lesson. <b>Unfortunately, a whole generation of investors is learning this lesson the hard way.</b></p></body></html>","source":"lsy1603271479234","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA 'Lost Decade' Ahead For Markets?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-25 19:36 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://realinvestmentadvice.com/a-lost-decade-ahead-for-markets/><strong>Real Investment Advice</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryOver the last 120 years, valuations have consistently proved to be a strong predictor of future returns with lost decades a common occurrence.Given the low growth economic environment, low ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://realinvestmentadvice.com/a-lost-decade-ahead-for-markets/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://realinvestmentadvice.com/a-lost-decade-ahead-for-markets/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2238349985","content_text":"SummaryOver the last 120 years, valuations have consistently proved to be a strong predictor of future returns with lost decades a common occurrence.Given the low growth economic environment, low rates, and weak inflation, a market return significantly lower over the last decade is logical.For investors, understanding potential returns from any given valuation point is crucial when considering putting “savings” at risk.nevarpp/iStock via Getty ImagesIs a “lost decade” ahead for markets? We and many others have discussed a topic regarding financial market valuations and forward returns. Now, halfway into 2022, all of a sudden, the “crazy talk” of valuations seems a lot less crazy as bear markets growl.However, it wasn’t that long ago the mainstream media discounted valuations and forward returns. For example, in December 2021, Ben Carlson recounted a presenter at a 2010-2011 conference who discussed valuations for a 60/40 allocation in the 95th percentile. Historically, that suggested investors were doomed for a low-return environment of roughly 2-3% over the next decade. As he states:“Instead, this happened.”“U.S. growth is up almost 20% per year. The S&P 500 is up more than 16% per year. Small caps are up almost 14% per year. REITs rose more than 11% annually. Everyone has been dancing on the grave of value stocks for years now, yet they’re up nearly 14% per year over the last decade.A simple 60/40 portfolio of U.S. stocks and bonds is up around 11% per year over the past 10 years.”Valuation and forward return assumptions were wrong then.Or were they?Real Market ReturnsOver the last 120 years, valuations have consistently proved to be a strong predictor of future returns with lost decades a common occurrence. However, as we discussed previously in “Rationalizing High Valuations:”“The mistake investors repeatedly make is dismissing the data in the short-term because there is no immediate impact on price returns.Valuations by their very nature are HORRIBLE predictors of 12-month returns. Investors avoid any investment strategy which has such a focus. In the longer term, however, valuations are strong predictors of expected returns.”The chart below shows valuations and rolling 10-year total real returns. The obvious conclusion is that overpaying for value leads to lost decades.However, let’s go back to Ben’s comment above. In 2009, valuations had corrected significantly, not only from the “Financial Crisis” peak but also from the preceding “Dot.com” bubble. Therefore, investors should have expected forward returns on equities to be higher over the next decade.The chart below shows this more clearly. I highlighted the three previous points for reference.The “Dot.com” bubble peak.January 2009 (Start of the current bull market cycle)Ending valuation for 2021.From 2000 through 2010, a lost decade, annual returns after inflation were indeed negative. Such is what 43x earnings predicted at that time.An Artificial SupportThe Wall Street Journal recently discussed the last decade’s stellar returns.“Investors’ optimism is easier to understand if one looks at the 10 years through the end of 2021, during which the compound annual return of the benchmark S&P 500 was a very good 16.6%. Not so far from what those surveyed extrapolated. Its components need closer scrutiny, though.”While the Wall Street Journal then tries to make the case that profit margins were responsible for the bulk of the gains, the reality is most of the excess returns came from just two unique sources.A decade of monetary interventions and zero interest rate policies; and,A massive spending spree by corporations on share repurchases.The chart below via Pavilion Global Markets shows the impact of stock buybacks on the market over the last decade. The decomposition of returns for the S&P 500 breaks down as follows:21% from multiple expansions,31.4% from earnings,7.1% from dividends, and40.5% from share buybacks.In other words, in the absence of share repurchases, the stock market would not be pushing record highs of 4700 but instead levels closer to 2800.Such would mean that stocks returned a total of about 3% annually or 42% in total over those 14 years.Given the low growth economic environment, low rates, and weak inflation, a market return significantly lower over the last decade is logical. However, given the injections of over $43 Trillion in liquidity, corporate stock buying, and the artificial suppression of rates, the outsized returns were not surprising.The question is whether those artificial influences can be sustained for another decade.Lost Decade Ahead?“As sour as the mood has seemed lately, the S&P 500 would drop by another 45% or so if both margins and price/earnings multiples reverted to their long-run averages. Such would take the benchmark back to a level it first crossed five years ago.That sounds alarmist, but stocks’ level in 2031 could be the same whether Mr. Grantham is correct or not about a sharp bear market. The alternative could be milder selloffs and recoveries along the lines of what we have experienced recently that lead stocks exactly nowhere.” – WSJ“Reversions to the mean” is one of the most powerful forces in finance, The importance of which often gets lost during a raging “bull market” that seemingly defies all logic. Such was a point made by David Leonhardt previously:“The classic 1934 textbook ‘Security Analysis’ – by Benjamin Graham, a mentor to Warren Buffett, and David Dodd – urged investors to compare stock prices to earnings over‘not less than five years, preferably seven or ten years.’ Ten years is enough time for the economy to go in and out of recession.It’s enough time for faddish theories about new paradigms to come and go.”What does such mean for future equity returns?“Vanguard regularly puts out expected returns for various asset classes using ranges in their estimates. Here are their latest 10 year forward return projections:With a projected inflation rate of around 2% per year, the real return estimate for U.S. stocks is somewhere in the range of 0-2% real. They have growth stocks going negative after inflation over the next decade.” – Ben CarlsonNotably, while such commentary is often cast as “bearish,” such forecasts are a reflection of:Math; and,ReversionsThe second is critically essential.The Most Powerful Force In FinanceThroughout history, whether it is valuations, prices, profits, or any other metric, eventually, and always, deviations revert to the mean. Such was a point discussed in “The Market Is Disconnected From Everything.”“Profit margins are probably the most mean-reverting series in finance, and if profit margins do not mean-revert, then something has gone badly wrong with capitalism. If high profits do not attract competition, there is something wrong with the system, and it is not functioning properly.” – Jeremy GranthamData Through 2021Markets are not cheap by any measure. If earnings growth fails to achieve high expectations, interest rates rise, or profit margins shrink due to inflation, the bull market thesis will collapse as “expectations” collide with “reality.”A Lesson To Be LearnedSuch is not a dire prediction of doom and gloom, nor is it a “bearish” forecast. It is just a function of how “math works over long periods.”However, during a “raging bull market,” investors always lose sight of long-term realities. As Howard Marks noted in a Bloomberg interview:“Fear of missing out has taken over from the fear of losing money.If people are risk-tolerant and afraid of being out of the market,they buy aggressively, in which case you can’t find any bargains. That’s where we are now. That’s what the Fed engineered by putting rates at zero.“We are back to where we were a year ago—uncertainty, prospective returns that are even lower than they were a year ago, and higher asset prices than a year ago. People are back to having to take on more risk to get return. At Oaktree, we are back to a cautious approach.This is not the kind of environment in which you would be buying with both hands.The prospective returns are low on everything.”For investors, understanding potential returns from any given valuation point is crucial when considering putting “savings” at risk. Risk is an essential concept as it is the expectation of“loss.”The more risk investors take within a portfolio, the greater the destruction of capital when reversions occur.This time is “not different.” The only difference will be what triggers the subsequent valuation reversion and when it eventually occurs.Two previous bear markets taught many this lesson. Unfortunately, a whole generation of investors is learning this lesson the hard way.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":646,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026438796,"gmtCreate":1653415238815,"gmtModify":1676535277135,"author":{"id":"3576578173433544","authorId":"3576578173433544","name":"Trader404","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576578173433544","authorIdStr":"3576578173433544"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026438796","repostId":"2237835951","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2237835951","pubTimestamp":1653384125,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2237835951?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-24 17:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: This Is A Blessing For Dividend Growth Investors","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2237835951","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryIn this article, I start by explaining why I haven't added to Apple since last year using my ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>In this article, I start by explaining why I haven&#39;t added to Apple since last year using my macroeconomic view.</li><li>While stock price weakness isn&#39;t fun, investors can use better prices to get access to one of the best dividend growth stocks on the market.</li><li>Apple is sitting on a load of cash, and future high free cash flow will fuel both buybacks and dividend growth.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8c050cfb147c509947da8a7709b03d\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Feline Lim/Getty Images News</span></p><p><b>Introduction</b></p><p>I own one dividend growth stock that is officially part of the technology sector. That stock is <b>Apple Inc. (</b><b>NASDAQ:AAPL</b><b>)</b>. It&#39;s one of my favorite investments despite its somewhat subdued exposure in my portfolio and the fact that I rarely cover the stock. I have 3.7% of my portfolio in Apple, which is below my portfolio average of 4.3%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40a49ae31038734f82bf7edfe90dc9b3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"321\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Author Portfolio</span></p><p>The reason why I haven&#39;t covered the stock since May 9, 2021, is the same reason why the stock is still way too small in my portfolio: macro developments. In this article, I will explain why Apple is doing so poorly after I wrote in 2021 that inflation would become a serious issue - especially with regard to the Federal Reserve&#39;s actions. However, while the current stock market isn&#39;t fun for long-only (long-term) investors, I&#39;m actually incredibly excited to see that Apple is doing so poorly. It provides us dividend growth investors with an opportunity to add at much better prices that will provide us with long-term opportunities to add substantial wealth to our portfolios. Apple is one of the stocks that need serious weakness to make sense for dividend growth investors.</p><p>In this article, I invite you to read my thoughts on macro, Apple, and my strategy in this market.</p><p>I will also explain why buying a very low yield makes sense for the &#34;average&#34; dividend investor.</p><p>So, let&#39;s get to it!</p><p><b>A Quick Look Back</b></p><p>Let&#39;s start with some transparency. I bought Apple in 2021 at an average price of $123.68. I haven&#39;t bought more shares since then for one big reason: I wasn&#39;t a fan of technology and &#34;growth&#34; stocks given the macro environment.</p><p>Last year, I wrote the following paragraph:</p><blockquote>When I say Apple&#39;s Achilles&#39; heel, I mean its sensitivity in times of rising inflation. I am not afraid of the competition potentially beating Apple long-term (i.e., Microsoft (MSFT)), and I am not afraid of recessions. While a recession will keep pressure on Apple for 1-2 years (on average), underperformance due to inflation is Apple&#39;s real enemy.</blockquote><p>Also, the following part applies here given what I&#39;m about to show you next:</p><blockquote>While highly speculative stocks get butchered, Apple is holding up very well as the company is what I consider to be the perfect mix of growth AND value. The company is not only expected to generate high growth in the future but also reward its investors already with massive buybacks and significant dividend hikes.</blockquote><p><b>Inflation &amp; Key Macro</b></p><p>Unfortunately, I was right as inflation did become a big issue. Consumer price inflation in the United States is now above 8%. The situation in key markets like Europe isn&#39;t much better as the reasons why inflation is high are similar in various economic &#34;hotspots.&#34;</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f60ef1a56fde1bce88cc43d9f09dd81e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"385\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>St. Louis Federal Reserve</span></p><p>It all started in 2020 when lockdowns hurt supply chains. Inventories were empty and demand imploded in various sectors/industries. Then, demand came back roaring, yet there was no way for supply to rebound just as quickly. It hurt global shipping, manufacturing input prices, commodity prices, and much more. These problems still aren&#39;t gone as China started to lock down its cities again. Right now, this is once again causing supply chain issues to worsen in US ports. Add to this that energy markets are seeing severe supply/demand imbalances as drillers aren&#39;t able or willing to increase production. Oil prices are above $100 despite Chinese lockdowns, economic growth fears, and an aggressive Federal Reserve.</p><p>Add to this the war in Ukraine and the (related) food crisis that is slowly weakening the consumer where it hurts most: in essential purchases.</p><p>Moreover, central banks blew up their balance sheets like there was no tomorrow in 2020. Between the start of 2020 and the end of 2021, major central banks (Fed, ECB, Bank of Japan, People&#39;s Bank of China) raised their combined assets from $21 trillion to more than $31 trillion.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c3ac383ba9a99dd86c06e7a1d1c4672\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"391\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Yardeni Research, Inc</span></p><p>In other words, a decreasing number of goods (and services) due to supply chain issues were chased by an ever-increasing amount of cash. It supported stock prices, home values, crypto, NFTs, and pretty much everything else that was perceived to have value.</p><p>Fast forward to 2022 and we&#39;re in a situation where things are different. Inflation is high, supply chains are still broken, economic growth is slowing, and the Federal Reserve is expected to hike aggressively - in this case, while economic growth is weakening.</p><p>As my friend and macro expert Nick Glinsman wrote last week, the Fed could be even more aggressive to tame inflation than some expect right now.</p><blockquote>When thinking about the Federal Reserve&#39;s job in getting inflation down, we often talk about real rates as measured by TIPS. However, instead we should be thinking about the gap between the Fed Funds rate and the consumer price index. <b><i>This measurement, what I would call the &#34;real&#34; real rate, shows just how far we are from having a positive reading. It may be the case the amount of tightening needed to tame inflation is much greater than many realize. In fact, if the Fed were to ignore this measure, it risks throwing the economy into a recession without actually getting inflation under control.</i></b></blockquote><blockquote>Real 10-year rates measured by TIPS are just barely positive right now, whereas there&#39;s a much larger gap between US CPI at 8.3% and the Fed Funds rate at 1%. If you look at the last inflationary period during the 1980s, it took years of the Fed Funds rate exceeding CPI for the Paul Volcker-led Fed to bring inflation down durably.</blockquote><p>What this means is that the Fed Funds futures&#39; terminal rate estimate of 3.25% in March 2023 may not be enough to tame inflation. The Fed said it will keep raising rates until inflation falls towards its 2% target. As it&#39;s doubtful that inflation will fall to 3.25% by March, more aggressive hikes might be needed.</p><p>After all, a big part of inflation is caused by issues the Fed cannot influence. The Fed cannot solve the war in Ukraine, it cannot increase oil production, it cannot add labor supply, and it cannot convince China to refrain from implementing new lockdowns.</p><p>As a result, investors are de-risking their portfolios. The S&amp;P 500 is down roughly 18.2% from its all-time high including dividends. The ARK Innovation <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF</a> (ARKK) is down 73% from its all-time high as investors have sold high-growth stocks. The tech-heavy QQQ ETF (QQQ) is down 28.4%. Apple has lost roughly a quarter of its value.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf1db187341ca70bc3ac9712ed7b1a38\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>In other words, not only has Apple been one of the best performers since the pandemic, but it&#39;s also doing rather well during the ongoing pandemic - compared to stocks that also shined prior to the sell-off. However, the company is not the world&#39;s most valuable company anymore, as it has been overtaken by oil giant Saudi Aramco as reported by the Wall Street Journal.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b49573a475c5d3aa00023b64dc551840\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"167\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Wall Street Journal</span></p><p>With that said, I could not care less. If anything, I&#39;m very happy that Apple is down because I expected that inflation would hurt growth stocks.</p><p>On top of that, long-term investors should cheer on these buying opportunities as Apple is far more than a &#34;growth&#34; stock. As I wrote in 2021 and in this article, Apple is the perfect mix between growth and value. It helped the stock outperform the market in the past and it protects investors in times when pure-growth plays are getting butchered.</p><p>Over the past 10 years, Apple is still up more than 700% including dividends. That&#39;s more than twice the return of the S&amp;P 500.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/013294d2067837f9d7cb002dfe92a989\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>With that said, market turmoil is opening up new opportunities that I want to use given my rather low Apple exposure.</p><p><b>Apple&#39;s Growth &amp; Value</b></p><p>Not only did I rename my <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a> account to Growth &amp; Value, but the growth and value approach is also the cornerstone of my dividend growth portfolio, which is roughly 95% of my entire net worth.</p><p>As the current market environment shows so well, the stocks that deliver both growth and value are the best performers. In this case, I consider &#34;value&#34; to be a company&#39;s ability to generate free cash flow used to maintain a healthy balance sheet and pay a growing dividend and the option to buy back shares. The &#34;growth&#34; aspect is straightforward as I dislike companies that are only able to pay a high yield without being able to grow, i.e., sales, EBITDA, and whatnot.</p><p>The graph below is important for what I&#39;m about to say next. I used this graph in a recent dividend growth-focused article as it shows that historically speaking companies with both growth and value have outperformed the (equal-weight) market by a mile. Dividend growers are not just providing a stream of cash for shareholders, but the fact that they are able to pay a growing dividend shows that their businesses are in a good place. Companies that paid a dividend without growth did also well, yet they underperformed growers by a mile.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ce5f82c39538e470817e836cae2c445\" tg-width=\"1344\" tg-height=\"760\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Hartford Funds</span></p><p>Apple has consistently grown its dividend since 2012, when it initiated a dividend for the first time since 1995. Seeking Alpha rates Apple&#39;s dividend growth &#34;A+&#34; compared to its industry peers.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08519cb0f5665a767133e4000b721ff9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"212\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p>The current quarterly dividend is $0.23 per share after the company announced a 4.5% hike on April 28. This translates to $0.92 per year, which is a 0.67% yield based on a $138 stock price. This means the chart I used last year is relevant again (the one below). Back then, the yield was 0.68% based on a $130 stock price. It happens every now and then that dividend investors get upset when I give them a company with a yield of 0.7%. 0.7% isn&#39;t a lot, that&#39;s right. $10,000 invested in Apple will result in $70 annual dividends. That won&#39;t get you very far - and $10,000 is a lot of money to a lot of people.</p><p>Last year, the company hiked its dividend by 7.3%. In 2020, the company hiked by 6.5%. In 2019, the company hiked by 5.5%. Over the past 5 years, the average annual hike is 8.8%.</p><p>For the sake of simplicity, let&#39;s assume the company maintains long-term dividend growth of 10% (above its current average). That would result in a yield on cost of 4.2% in 2040. That&#39;s roughly 18 years from now.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7aa214bb0832816d9543aee8bfc0347d\" tg-width=\"1054\" tg-height=\"385\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Author</span></p><p>4.2% on cost ends up being $420 in dividends (based on the $10,000 example - without adding shares). I doubt that will get us very far in 2040.</p><p>So, why am I still so happy to discuss this dividend growth opportunity?</p><p>The key is that Apple will not become a high-yield stock anytime soon. Growth is high and Apple generates a LOT of free cash flow.</p><p>When Apple announced the aforementioned 4.5% dividend hike on April 28, it also announced a $90 billion increase to its existing buyback program.</p><p>This is what the company commented on its 2Q22 earnings call:</p><blockquote>Given the continued confidence we have in our business now and into the future, today our Board has authorized an additional $90 billion for share repurchases, as we maintain our goal of getting to net cash neutral, overtime. We&#39;re also raising our dividend by 5% to $0.23 a share and we continue to plan for annual increases in the dividend going forward.</blockquote><p>In that quarter, Apple bought back $22.9 billion worth of stock while returning $3.6 billion in dividends. In other words, the company&#39;s priority is obvious. It will distribute cash in the most tax-efficient way, which also benefits its bottom line. A lower number of shares outstanding equals higher earnings per share.</p><p>The graph below shows annual repurchases and dividends. Repurchases have exceeded $69 billion every single year since 2018.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7546779c8ff134551c0053e3cd707c06\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>TIKR.com</span></p><p>These buybacks allowed the company to reduce shares outstanding from 20.9 billion in 2017 to 16.7 billion at the end of 2021. That&#39;s a decline of 20% or roughly 4.4% per year.</p><p>While the company is not expected to be able to maintain its (EBITDA) margins in the years ahead, top-line growth is expected to provide a basis for $112 billion in FY2023 free cash flow and close to $120 billion in FY2024 free cash flow.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c344727f5093f16a14b3a102f280630d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>TIKR.com</span></p><p>Using $112 billion in expected FCF as an example translates to an implied FCF yield of 5.0% of the company&#39;s $2.23 trillion market cap. In other words, the company could pay a dividend of 5.0% in FY2023 or buy back 5.0% of shares outstanding without using external funding or existing cash reserves.</p><p>With that said, there&#39;s a lot more cash to distribute. Apple&#39;s target to become net-cash neutral means it will have to distribute not only all of its free cash flow but also its net cash balance. Net cash occurs when a company has more cash than gross debt. It&#39;s negative net debt. Most companies have positive net debt. Apple has more cash than gross debt. At the end of FY2021, the company had $66 billion in net cash. Analysts expect that number to rise to more than $120 billion in the years ahead if the company doesn&#39;t buy back shares rather aggressively.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52935bab6d5db9f25a22d41fe7dacab3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>TIKR.com</span></p><p>It also opens the door to major M&amp;A, which is why people have speculated that Apple may buy a company like Peloton (PTON), which is currently getting crushed on the stock market. However, while Apple isn&#39;t denying looking for bigger opportunities, it seems to work on its own products based on smaller acquisitions, which I believe is the way to go in that space.</p><p>According to Tim Cook:</p><blockquote>We acquire a lot of smaller companies today and we&#39;ll continue to do that for IP and for great talent. And -- but we don&#39;t discount doing something larger either if the opportunity presents itself.</blockquote><p>Now, onto the valuation.</p><p><b>Valuation &amp; Timing</b></p><p>Apple is down 22.5% year to date, which pushed its market cap to $2.23 trillion. When subtracting $93.2 billion in expected FY2023 net cash, we get an enterprise value of $2.14 trillion.</p><p>This is 15.8x next year&#39;s expected EBITDA of $135 billion. 15.8x is still above the company&#39;s pre-pandemic valuation, but well below prices investors were willing to pay in 2021 and most of 2020.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5514bb0b8494b8df2e8ce9f34bf019f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>The stock price is now back to where it was in early 2021 after investors pushed the stock to more than $180 at the end of 2021.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c5dabeac5b865aeffbd8e91d5b162ad\" tg-width=\"992\" tg-height=\"400\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>FINVIZ</span></p><p>It&#39;s hard to predict where the stock will bottom. If ongoing issues are persistent, we could see $120, which is where the stock found a lot of support in the first half of 2021. Below that, I could see $110.</p><p>My strategy is to buy as close to my initial entry as possible ($123.69), if it falls below $120, I will buy more aggressively.</p><p>If you&#39;re new to Apple and looking to initiate a position, I think it&#39;s best to break up an initial investment. For example, buy 25% now and add gradually over time. That way investors get to average down if the stock continues its decline while it gives them a foot in the door if the stock suddenly bottoms and takes off.</p><p><b>Takeaway</b></p><p>Apple has gone nowhere since last year as inflation and related factors have made it impossible for growth stocks to continue their post-pandemic uptrend. However, Apple offers a great mix of both growth and value, which is why the damage to its stock price is somewhat limited compared to pure-growth plays. Apple is my favorite tech/consumer stock for a reason, which is its ability to generate a load of cash on top of its already stunning net cash position.</p><p>The company is dedicated to distributing its existing cash position and most of its free cash flow via buybacks on top of steadily growing dividends. While the dividend yield is low, I still recommend AAPL to dividend growth investors. As long as investors are not dependent on income from their investment, I have little doubt that investors will enjoy long-term outperforming capital gains thanks to aggressive buybacks and a business model relying on its successful tech products and services.</p><p>With that said, the ongoing market environment is tricky. As I explained in this article, the Fed is trying to get inflation down to 2%, which is a tough task due to factors the bank cannot directly influence. As a result, the Fed may have to be more aggressive than anticipated, which could hurt the economy more than expected at a time when consumers are already in a tough spot.</p><p>Nonetheless, in order to make Apple a successful long-term investment, we need stock price weakness. The valuation has gotten a lot better and if the stock continues to drop, I will add more aggressively.</p><p>Again, the stock market environment isn&#39;t fun, but buying Apple at better valuations is absolutely worth it as it gives us a high chance of long-term outperformance and wealth creation.</p><p>(Dis)agree? Let me know in the comments!</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: This Is A Blessing For Dividend Growth Investors</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: This Is A Blessing For Dividend Growth Investors\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-24 17:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4513852-apple-this-is-a-blessing-for-dividend-growth-investors><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryIn this article, I start by explaining why I haven't added to Apple since last year using my macroeconomic view.While stock price weakness isn't fun, investors can use better prices to get ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4513852-apple-this-is-a-blessing-for-dividend-growth-investors\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4513852-apple-this-is-a-blessing-for-dividend-growth-investors","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2237835951","content_text":"SummaryIn this article, I start by explaining why I haven't added to Apple since last year using my macroeconomic view.While stock price weakness isn't fun, investors can use better prices to get access to one of the best dividend growth stocks on the market.Apple is sitting on a load of cash, and future high free cash flow will fuel both buybacks and dividend growth.Feline Lim/Getty Images NewsIntroductionI own one dividend growth stock that is officially part of the technology sector. That stock is Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL). It's one of my favorite investments despite its somewhat subdued exposure in my portfolio and the fact that I rarely cover the stock. I have 3.7% of my portfolio in Apple, which is below my portfolio average of 4.3%.Author PortfolioThe reason why I haven't covered the stock since May 9, 2021, is the same reason why the stock is still way too small in my portfolio: macro developments. In this article, I will explain why Apple is doing so poorly after I wrote in 2021 that inflation would become a serious issue - especially with regard to the Federal Reserve's actions. However, while the current stock market isn't fun for long-only (long-term) investors, I'm actually incredibly excited to see that Apple is doing so poorly. It provides us dividend growth investors with an opportunity to add at much better prices that will provide us with long-term opportunities to add substantial wealth to our portfolios. Apple is one of the stocks that need serious weakness to make sense for dividend growth investors.In this article, I invite you to read my thoughts on macro, Apple, and my strategy in this market.I will also explain why buying a very low yield makes sense for the \"average\" dividend investor.So, let's get to it!A Quick Look BackLet's start with some transparency. I bought Apple in 2021 at an average price of $123.68. I haven't bought more shares since then for one big reason: I wasn't a fan of technology and \"growth\" stocks given the macro environment.Last year, I wrote the following paragraph:When I say Apple's Achilles' heel, I mean its sensitivity in times of rising inflation. I am not afraid of the competition potentially beating Apple long-term (i.e., Microsoft (MSFT)), and I am not afraid of recessions. While a recession will keep pressure on Apple for 1-2 years (on average), underperformance due to inflation is Apple's real enemy.Also, the following part applies here given what I'm about to show you next:While highly speculative stocks get butchered, Apple is holding up very well as the company is what I consider to be the perfect mix of growth AND value. The company is not only expected to generate high growth in the future but also reward its investors already with massive buybacks and significant dividend hikes.Inflation & Key MacroUnfortunately, I was right as inflation did become a big issue. Consumer price inflation in the United States is now above 8%. The situation in key markets like Europe isn't much better as the reasons why inflation is high are similar in various economic \"hotspots.\"St. Louis Federal ReserveIt all started in 2020 when lockdowns hurt supply chains. Inventories were empty and demand imploded in various sectors/industries. Then, demand came back roaring, yet there was no way for supply to rebound just as quickly. It hurt global shipping, manufacturing input prices, commodity prices, and much more. These problems still aren't gone as China started to lock down its cities again. Right now, this is once again causing supply chain issues to worsen in US ports. Add to this that energy markets are seeing severe supply/demand imbalances as drillers aren't able or willing to increase production. Oil prices are above $100 despite Chinese lockdowns, economic growth fears, and an aggressive Federal Reserve.Add to this the war in Ukraine and the (related) food crisis that is slowly weakening the consumer where it hurts most: in essential purchases.Moreover, central banks blew up their balance sheets like there was no tomorrow in 2020. Between the start of 2020 and the end of 2021, major central banks (Fed, ECB, Bank of Japan, People's Bank of China) raised their combined assets from $21 trillion to more than $31 trillion.Yardeni Research, IncIn other words, a decreasing number of goods (and services) due to supply chain issues were chased by an ever-increasing amount of cash. It supported stock prices, home values, crypto, NFTs, and pretty much everything else that was perceived to have value.Fast forward to 2022 and we're in a situation where things are different. Inflation is high, supply chains are still broken, economic growth is slowing, and the Federal Reserve is expected to hike aggressively - in this case, while economic growth is weakening.As my friend and macro expert Nick Glinsman wrote last week, the Fed could be even more aggressive to tame inflation than some expect right now.When thinking about the Federal Reserve's job in getting inflation down, we often talk about real rates as measured by TIPS. However, instead we should be thinking about the gap between the Fed Funds rate and the consumer price index. This measurement, what I would call the \"real\" real rate, shows just how far we are from having a positive reading. It may be the case the amount of tightening needed to tame inflation is much greater than many realize. In fact, if the Fed were to ignore this measure, it risks throwing the economy into a recession without actually getting inflation under control.Real 10-year rates measured by TIPS are just barely positive right now, whereas there's a much larger gap between US CPI at 8.3% and the Fed Funds rate at 1%. If you look at the last inflationary period during the 1980s, it took years of the Fed Funds rate exceeding CPI for the Paul Volcker-led Fed to bring inflation down durably.What this means is that the Fed Funds futures' terminal rate estimate of 3.25% in March 2023 may not be enough to tame inflation. The Fed said it will keep raising rates until inflation falls towards its 2% target. As it's doubtful that inflation will fall to 3.25% by March, more aggressive hikes might be needed.After all, a big part of inflation is caused by issues the Fed cannot influence. The Fed cannot solve the war in Ukraine, it cannot increase oil production, it cannot add labor supply, and it cannot convince China to refrain from implementing new lockdowns.As a result, investors are de-risking their portfolios. The S&P 500 is down roughly 18.2% from its all-time high including dividends. The ARK Innovation Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF (ARKK) is down 73% from its all-time high as investors have sold high-growth stocks. The tech-heavy QQQ ETF (QQQ) is down 28.4%. Apple has lost roughly a quarter of its value.Data by YChartsIn other words, not only has Apple been one of the best performers since the pandemic, but it's also doing rather well during the ongoing pandemic - compared to stocks that also shined prior to the sell-off. However, the company is not the world's most valuable company anymore, as it has been overtaken by oil giant Saudi Aramco as reported by the Wall Street Journal.Wall Street JournalWith that said, I could not care less. If anything, I'm very happy that Apple is down because I expected that inflation would hurt growth stocks.On top of that, long-term investors should cheer on these buying opportunities as Apple is far more than a \"growth\" stock. As I wrote in 2021 and in this article, Apple is the perfect mix between growth and value. It helped the stock outperform the market in the past and it protects investors in times when pure-growth plays are getting butchered.Over the past 10 years, Apple is still up more than 700% including dividends. That's more than twice the return of the S&P 500.Data by YChartsWith that said, market turmoil is opening up new opportunities that I want to use given my rather low Apple exposure.Apple's Growth & ValueNot only did I rename my Twitter account to Growth & Value, but the growth and value approach is also the cornerstone of my dividend growth portfolio, which is roughly 95% of my entire net worth.As the current market environment shows so well, the stocks that deliver both growth and value are the best performers. In this case, I consider \"value\" to be a company's ability to generate free cash flow used to maintain a healthy balance sheet and pay a growing dividend and the option to buy back shares. The \"growth\" aspect is straightforward as I dislike companies that are only able to pay a high yield without being able to grow, i.e., sales, EBITDA, and whatnot.The graph below is important for what I'm about to say next. I used this graph in a recent dividend growth-focused article as it shows that historically speaking companies with both growth and value have outperformed the (equal-weight) market by a mile. Dividend growers are not just providing a stream of cash for shareholders, but the fact that they are able to pay a growing dividend shows that their businesses are in a good place. Companies that paid a dividend without growth did also well, yet they underperformed growers by a mile.Hartford FundsApple has consistently grown its dividend since 2012, when it initiated a dividend for the first time since 1995. Seeking Alpha rates Apple's dividend growth \"A+\" compared to its industry peers.Seeking AlphaThe current quarterly dividend is $0.23 per share after the company announced a 4.5% hike on April 28. This translates to $0.92 per year, which is a 0.67% yield based on a $138 stock price. This means the chart I used last year is relevant again (the one below). Back then, the yield was 0.68% based on a $130 stock price. It happens every now and then that dividend investors get upset when I give them a company with a yield of 0.7%. 0.7% isn't a lot, that's right. $10,000 invested in Apple will result in $70 annual dividends. That won't get you very far - and $10,000 is a lot of money to a lot of people.Last year, the company hiked its dividend by 7.3%. In 2020, the company hiked by 6.5%. In 2019, the company hiked by 5.5%. Over the past 5 years, the average annual hike is 8.8%.For the sake of simplicity, let's assume the company maintains long-term dividend growth of 10% (above its current average). That would result in a yield on cost of 4.2% in 2040. That's roughly 18 years from now.Author4.2% on cost ends up being $420 in dividends (based on the $10,000 example - without adding shares). I doubt that will get us very far in 2040.So, why am I still so happy to discuss this dividend growth opportunity?The key is that Apple will not become a high-yield stock anytime soon. Growth is high and Apple generates a LOT of free cash flow.When Apple announced the aforementioned 4.5% dividend hike on April 28, it also announced a $90 billion increase to its existing buyback program.This is what the company commented on its 2Q22 earnings call:Given the continued confidence we have in our business now and into the future, today our Board has authorized an additional $90 billion for share repurchases, as we maintain our goal of getting to net cash neutral, overtime. We're also raising our dividend by 5% to $0.23 a share and we continue to plan for annual increases in the dividend going forward.In that quarter, Apple bought back $22.9 billion worth of stock while returning $3.6 billion in dividends. In other words, the company's priority is obvious. It will distribute cash in the most tax-efficient way, which also benefits its bottom line. A lower number of shares outstanding equals higher earnings per share.The graph below shows annual repurchases and dividends. Repurchases have exceeded $69 billion every single year since 2018.TIKR.comThese buybacks allowed the company to reduce shares outstanding from 20.9 billion in 2017 to 16.7 billion at the end of 2021. That's a decline of 20% or roughly 4.4% per year.While the company is not expected to be able to maintain its (EBITDA) margins in the years ahead, top-line growth is expected to provide a basis for $112 billion in FY2023 free cash flow and close to $120 billion in FY2024 free cash flow.TIKR.comUsing $112 billion in expected FCF as an example translates to an implied FCF yield of 5.0% of the company's $2.23 trillion market cap. In other words, the company could pay a dividend of 5.0% in FY2023 or buy back 5.0% of shares outstanding without using external funding or existing cash reserves.With that said, there's a lot more cash to distribute. Apple's target to become net-cash neutral means it will have to distribute not only all of its free cash flow but also its net cash balance. Net cash occurs when a company has more cash than gross debt. It's negative net debt. Most companies have positive net debt. Apple has more cash than gross debt. At the end of FY2021, the company had $66 billion in net cash. Analysts expect that number to rise to more than $120 billion in the years ahead if the company doesn't buy back shares rather aggressively.TIKR.comIt also opens the door to major M&A, which is why people have speculated that Apple may buy a company like Peloton (PTON), which is currently getting crushed on the stock market. However, while Apple isn't denying looking for bigger opportunities, it seems to work on its own products based on smaller acquisitions, which I believe is the way to go in that space.According to Tim Cook:We acquire a lot of smaller companies today and we'll continue to do that for IP and for great talent. And -- but we don't discount doing something larger either if the opportunity presents itself.Now, onto the valuation.Valuation & TimingApple is down 22.5% year to date, which pushed its market cap to $2.23 trillion. When subtracting $93.2 billion in expected FY2023 net cash, we get an enterprise value of $2.14 trillion.This is 15.8x next year's expected EBITDA of $135 billion. 15.8x is still above the company's pre-pandemic valuation, but well below prices investors were willing to pay in 2021 and most of 2020.Data by YChartsThe stock price is now back to where it was in early 2021 after investors pushed the stock to more than $180 at the end of 2021.FINVIZIt's hard to predict where the stock will bottom. If ongoing issues are persistent, we could see $120, which is where the stock found a lot of support in the first half of 2021. Below that, I could see $110.My strategy is to buy as close to my initial entry as possible ($123.69), if it falls below $120, I will buy more aggressively.If you're new to Apple and looking to initiate a position, I think it's best to break up an initial investment. For example, buy 25% now and add gradually over time. That way investors get to average down if the stock continues its decline while it gives them a foot in the door if the stock suddenly bottoms and takes off.TakeawayApple has gone nowhere since last year as inflation and related factors have made it impossible for growth stocks to continue their post-pandemic uptrend. However, Apple offers a great mix of both growth and value, which is why the damage to its stock price is somewhat limited compared to pure-growth plays. Apple is my favorite tech/consumer stock for a reason, which is its ability to generate a load of cash on top of its already stunning net cash position.The company is dedicated to distributing its existing cash position and most of its free cash flow via buybacks on top of steadily growing dividends. While the dividend yield is low, I still recommend AAPL to dividend growth investors. As long as investors are not dependent on income from their investment, I have little doubt that investors will enjoy long-term outperforming capital gains thanks to aggressive buybacks and a business model relying on its successful tech products and services.With that said, the ongoing market environment is tricky. As I explained in this article, the Fed is trying to get inflation down to 2%, which is a tough task due to factors the bank cannot directly influence. As a result, the Fed may have to be more aggressive than anticipated, which could hurt the economy more than expected at a time when consumers are already in a tough spot.Nonetheless, in order to make Apple a successful long-term investment, we need stock price weakness. The valuation has gotten a lot better and if the stock continues to drop, I will add more aggressively.Again, the stock market environment isn't fun, but buying Apple at better valuations is absolutely worth it as it gives us a high chance of long-term outperformance and wealth creation.(Dis)agree? Let me know in the comments!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":217,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9021620922,"gmtCreate":1653048463066,"gmtModify":1676535214171,"author":{"id":"3576578173433544","authorId":"3576578173433544","name":"Trader404","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576578173433544","authorIdStr":"3576578173433544"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9021620922","repostId":"1136827320","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":472,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9021062493,"gmtCreate":1652975457712,"gmtModify":1676535200234,"author":{"id":"3576578173433544","authorId":"3576578173433544","name":"Trader404","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576578173433544","authorIdStr":"3576578173433544"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9021062493","repostId":"1152395035","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152395035","pubTimestamp":1652974277,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1152395035?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-19 23:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: Never Bought it and Never Will","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152395035","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Tesla stock is overvalued and Chief Executive Officer  Elon Musk is bored.The company has yet to begin planning on a true mass market car.Tesla loses share wherever the middle class gets into the electric revolution.I am not a fan ofTesla or TSLA stock.I question the basic bull thesis. Having taken the luxury end of the market, the theory goes that Tesla can take the mass market by simply scaling up.But in markets where there is mass market demand forelectric vehicles , like China and Europe, Te","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li><b>Tesla</b>(<b><u>TSLA</u></b>) stock is overvalued and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Elon Musk is bored.</li><li>The company has yet to begin planning on a true mass market car.</li><li>Tesla loses share wherever the middle class gets into the electric revolution.</li></ul><p>I am not a fan of <b>Tesla</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>TSLA</u></b>) or TSLA stock.</p><p>I question the basic bull thesis. Having taken the luxury end of the market, the theory goes that Tesla can take the mass market by simply scaling up.</p><p>But in markets where there is mass market demand for electric vehicles (EVs), like China and Europe, Tesla’s market share is dropping. The mass market doesn’t need huge batteries, fancy fittings, or a $50,000 price tag. Why pay 18 times revenue to own Cadillac when <b>Chevrolet</b> is what the people want?</p><p>Dances With Bulls</p><p>If I am right, Tesla is overvalued. Tesla is getting fat on the cream of the market when any dairyman knows the big sales are in low fat milk.</p><p>Tesla is indeed getting fat. Tesla bears turned into bulls after first quarter numbers came out. Tesla earned $3.3 billion, $2.86/share under GAAP, on first quarter revenue of $18.7 billion. Auto revenues were 87% ahead of a year earlier. But they were just 5% ahead of the previous quarter.</p><p>Bulls think Tesla is <b>Apple</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>AAPL</u></b>), that it has the market sewn up. They say there will be haves and have-nots in the new tech market and Tesla will be one of the haves. They see continuing supply chain worries and assume Tesla will surmount them while rivals won’t.</p><p>Tesla has taught its industry many lessons, but the lessons are being learned. Buy a <b>Toyota</b>(NYSE:<b><u>TM</u></b>) today and you’ll be faced with a host of services aimed at tying you to the brand. For car dealers, service and support are where the money is. Even <b>General Motors</b>(NYSE:<b><u>GM</u></b>) has learned that you build your full line off one platform to keep costs down and focus on battery supply.</p><p>Despite Tesla’s pretensions, in other words, it’s a car company. No car company is worth 18 times its revenue.</p><p>The Great Replacement</p><p>A walk around my middle-class neighborhood tells the story. The “Great Replacement” today isn’t people quitting their jobs. It’s replacing America’s gas-guzzling fleet with EVs.</p><p>Tesla made the big jump look cool. We have two Teslas on my block. But for most people it’s still a question of small steps. That’s why I recently became the fifth homeowner on my street to buy a Toyota hybrid. It cuts my gas use in half, but I don’t have to worry about finding a plug in the middle of West Virginia. It also cost half what a Tesla costs.</p><p>Cars with plugs, like Tesla, still represent just 5% of the U.S. car market. Hybrids are where the growth is in today’s mass market, which is dominated by Japanese, Korean and Chinese names.</p><p>Tesla’s market share in China is falling. In Europe, <b>Volkswagen</b>(OTCMKTS:<b><u>VWAGY</u></b>) and <b>Stellantis</b>(NYSE:<b><u>STLA</u></b>) now have bigger shares of the plug-in market.</p><p>The Bottom Line on TSLA Stock</p><p>Bulls look at CEO Elon Musk’s effort to buy <b>Twitter</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>TWTR</u></b>) and worry that might distract him. They even bought Tesla when it seemed he might back off the Twitter purchase.</p><p>The Twitter saga tells me Musk is bored. Tesla is being run by car guys. The great strategic cut-and-thrust is mostly over. He wants to do something else. So don’t buy or sell Tesla stock based on Musk.</p><p>Look at the fundamentals. In the near term, they’re great, but you’re overpaying. In the longer run, they’re troubled, which is why even tech whisperer Cathie Woods has been loading up on GM stock.</p><p>My bottom line: Don’t go near Tesla until it can make a Chevy.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: Never Bought it and Never Will</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: Never Bought it and Never Will\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-19 23:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/05/tsla-stock-never-bought-it-and-never-will/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla(TSLA) stock is overvalued and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Elon Musk is bored.The company has yet to begin planning on a true mass market car.Tesla loses share wherever the middle class gets ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/05/tsla-stock-never-bought-it-and-never-will/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/05/tsla-stock-never-bought-it-and-never-will/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152395035","content_text":"Tesla(TSLA) stock is overvalued and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Elon Musk is bored.The company has yet to begin planning on a true mass market car.Tesla loses share wherever the middle class gets into the electric revolution.I am not a fan of Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA) or TSLA stock.I question the basic bull thesis. Having taken the luxury end of the market, the theory goes that Tesla can take the mass market by simply scaling up.But in markets where there is mass market demand for electric vehicles (EVs), like China and Europe, Tesla’s market share is dropping. The mass market doesn’t need huge batteries, fancy fittings, or a $50,000 price tag. Why pay 18 times revenue to own Cadillac when Chevrolet is what the people want?Dances With BullsIf I am right, Tesla is overvalued. Tesla is getting fat on the cream of the market when any dairyman knows the big sales are in low fat milk.Tesla is indeed getting fat. Tesla bears turned into bulls after first quarter numbers came out. Tesla earned $3.3 billion, $2.86/share under GAAP, on first quarter revenue of $18.7 billion. Auto revenues were 87% ahead of a year earlier. But they were just 5% ahead of the previous quarter.Bulls think Tesla is Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL), that it has the market sewn up. They say there will be haves and have-nots in the new tech market and Tesla will be one of the haves. They see continuing supply chain worries and assume Tesla will surmount them while rivals won’t.Tesla has taught its industry many lessons, but the lessons are being learned. Buy a Toyota(NYSE:TM) today and you’ll be faced with a host of services aimed at tying you to the brand. For car dealers, service and support are where the money is. Even General Motors(NYSE:GM) has learned that you build your full line off one platform to keep costs down and focus on battery supply.Despite Tesla’s pretensions, in other words, it’s a car company. No car company is worth 18 times its revenue.The Great ReplacementA walk around my middle-class neighborhood tells the story. The “Great Replacement” today isn’t people quitting their jobs. It’s replacing America’s gas-guzzling fleet with EVs.Tesla made the big jump look cool. We have two Teslas on my block. But for most people it’s still a question of small steps. That’s why I recently became the fifth homeowner on my street to buy a Toyota hybrid. It cuts my gas use in half, but I don’t have to worry about finding a plug in the middle of West Virginia. It also cost half what a Tesla costs.Cars with plugs, like Tesla, still represent just 5% of the U.S. car market. Hybrids are where the growth is in today’s mass market, which is dominated by Japanese, Korean and Chinese names.Tesla’s market share in China is falling. In Europe, Volkswagen(OTCMKTS:VWAGY) and Stellantis(NYSE:STLA) now have bigger shares of the plug-in market.The Bottom Line on TSLA StockBulls look at CEO Elon Musk’s effort to buy Twitter(NASDAQ:TWTR) and worry that might distract him. They even bought Tesla when it seemed he might back off the Twitter purchase.The Twitter saga tells me Musk is bored. Tesla is being run by car guys. The great strategic cut-and-thrust is mostly over. He wants to do something else. So don’t buy or sell Tesla stock based on Musk.Look at the fundamentals. In the near term, they’re great, but you’re overpaying. In the longer run, they’re troubled, which is why even tech whisperer Cathie Woods has been loading up on GM stock.My bottom line: Don’t go near Tesla until it can make a Chevy.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":203,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":true}