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JNPJEREMY

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- JNPJEREMYJNPJEREMY
  ·2023-06-25
  A blow off top is coming that will reach all time high. This is just a pull back. Mark my words and get ready for it. After that will be a deep recession.
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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- JNPJEREMYJNPJEREMY
  ·2022-03-26
  None of them can beat this one. It starts with a T and ends with an A....
  3 Autonomous Vehicle Stocks to Buy Ahead of the Mobileye IPO
  Restrictions due to the coronavirus and regulatory issues have slowed the progress of autonomous vehicles more than I thought they would. However, I still believe that long-term investors will ultimat
  3 Autonomous Vehicle Stocks to Buy Ahead of the Mobileye IPO
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- JNPJEREMYJNPJEREMY
  ·2022-03-16
  Sense alot of optimism in this one
  Everyone Is Expecting A Crash, Or Stagflation, So It's Happening - That's Not How It Works
  Dzmitry Dzemidovich/iStock via Getty ImagesThe CrashI was chatting with a friend down in Florida, an
  Everyone Is Expecting A Crash, Or Stagflation, So It's Happening - That's Not How It Works
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- JNPJEREMYJNPJEREMY
  ·2022-03-15
  To author of this tiger press....And your point is?
  Tesla‘s Market Cap ≈ Sum of Five Chinese Internet Giants
  According to the closing price on March 14 in the U.S. market, Tesla is almost equal to the sum of T
  Tesla‘s Market Cap ≈ Sum of Five Chinese Internet Giants
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- JNPJEREMYJNPJEREMY
  ·2022-03-01
  Don't bet against Elon. We shall see how this article ages in a few years time.
  Tesla Is Still Fundamentally Overvalued
  Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock has lost about one-third of its value since hitting an all-time high of $1,222/share at the start of November.Tesla stock opened on Feb. 28 at $815. That’s still a market cap
  Tesla Is Still Fundamentally Overvalued
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- JNPJEREMYJNPJEREMY
  ·2022-01-14
  We shall see if this article ages well
  Palantir: A Defense Of My $5 Price Target
  SummaryI respond to reader feedback on my most recent Palantir article.Reader feedback is divided in
  Palantir: A Defense Of My $5 Price Target
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It starts with a T and ends with an A....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9010388187","repostId":"1153047568","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1153047568","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1648251874,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1153047568?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-26 07:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Autonomous Vehicle Stocks to Buy Ahead of the Mobileye IPO","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153047568","media":"investorplace","summary":"Restrictions due to the coronavirus and regulatory issues have slowed the progress of autonomous vehicles more than I thought they would. However, I still believe that long-term investors will ultimat","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Restrictions due to the coronavirus and regulatory issues have slowed the progress of autonomous vehicles more than I thought they would. However, I still believe that long-term investors will ultimately benefit a great deal from buying autonomous driving stocks. Many companies, including Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG, NASDAQ:GOOGL), General Motors (NYSE:GM), Velodyne (NASDAQ:VLDR), Embark (NASDAQ:EMBK) and Aurora Innovation (NASDAQ:AUR), are making a great deal of progress when it comes to commercializing self-driving technology on a significant scale.</p><p>Meanwhile, fears of the coronavirus have dropped tremendously, and the Biden administration seems to have decided recently to quickly facilitate the proliferation of autonomous vehicles.</p><p>For evidence of the latter trend, consider the fact that the  U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration recently decided to allow “fully autonomous vehicles” to be built without certain safety features previously required in all vehicles, such as steering wheels. Moreover, U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said earlier this month that his department does not want to prevent innovation in the autonomous vehicle space. He also predicted that regulation of the sector would evolve a great deal during the rest of the 2020’s.</p><p>And at the beginning of March, Intel (NASDQ:INTC) filed papers with the Securities and Exchange Commission to launch an IPO of its Mobileye unit, which develops and sells self-driving and advanced driving assistance systems. If Mobileye’s shares attain a high valuation, they could provide a positive catalyst to other companies in the sector.</p><p>Finally, since self-driving automobiles would save both businesses and consumers a great deal of time and money, I continue to believe that the technology will prove to be quite lucrative for the firms that successfully introduce it widely.</p><p>As such, I think that the best ways for investors to benefit from the ultimate proliferation of self-driving vehicles is by buying the following autonomous driving stocks:</p><ul><li>Aurora Innovation (AUR)</li><li>Embark (EMBK)</li><li>Velodyne (VLDR)</li></ul><h2>Autonomous Vehicle Stocks to Buy: Aurora Innovation (AUR)</h2><p>Encouragingly, way back in 2019, Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) invested in Aurora. In the process, it somewhat validated the company’s technology. It also helped make me more confident that Hyundai (OTCMKTS:HYMTF) also invested in the company in 2019.</p><p>Recently, Aurora announced that it had developed self-driving technology that is able to “work across multiple vehicle types.” That level of standardization should greatly facilitate the use of Aurora’s system by transportation companies and automakers.</p><p>Also increasing my confidence in AUR stock is the fact that the tech startup is partnering with “Volvo on autonomous trucks and Toyota to develop a fleet of self-driving Siennas,” according to Cnet.</p><p>The current market capitalization of AUR stock is $6 billion. That’s not low, but I believe that it greatly undervalues the company’s long-term potential.</p><h2>Embark (EMBK)</h2><p>The company sells self-driving software for trucks called Embark Driver. It charges trucking companies a per-mile subscription fee for the use of the software.</p><p>According to the company’s CEO, Alex Rodrigues, Embark uses technology that enables “trucks to update … maps in real time, which is critical when encountering situations like construction work zones, particularly when you’re on a two-lane highway and there are no alternative routes.” Moreover, the company’s system can be easily “integrated” with trucks made by any major manufacturer, and “some of the top carriers in the United States … [are its] customers.” For October, the company said that it had received “14,200 reservations for Embark-equipped autonomous trucks, more than twice the nearest public competitor” at that point.</p><p>Rodrigues noted that, in the U.S., human truck drivers cannot drive their vehicles for more than 11 hours each day. And that Embark’s software can dramatically expand that number.</p><p>Finally, the CEO reported that “over 1 million real world miles” had been driven using the company’s software “without a single department of Transportation reportable safety incident.”</p><p>Stephen Houghton, who was named the company’s COO in February, worked on autonomous vehicles for Amazon and Cruise (currently owned by GM) for six years.</p><h2>Autonomous Vehicle Stocks to Buy: Velodyne (VLDR)</h2><p>In a very positive development, Velodyne announced last month that Amazon had purchased a warrant that could enable the e-commerce giant to buy nearly 40 million shares of VLDR stock. The warrant will become exercisable “based on discretionary payments made by Amazon pursuant to existing commercial agreements between Velodyne and Amazon,” Seeking Alpha explained. I think the deal suggests that Amazon believes that Velodyne has a great deal of potential.</p><p>Also note that in 2017, Amazon obtained a warrant to buy up to 55.3 million shares of Plug Power (NASDAQ:PLUG) stock. PLUG stock finished 2017 at $1.93. On March 18, 2022, it closed at $26.15.</p><p>In 2021, Velodyne’s shipments of sensors jumped 35% versus 2020 to slightly over 15,000. In 2019, the company shipped just over 12,000 sensors. Last quarter, it sold a record 4,900 sensors. The company’s revenue dropped 1.7% year-over-year because of its strategy of using lower prices to gain market share. Ultimately, however, I expect that approach will be quite successful.</p><p>VLDR stock is trading at a reasonable trailing price-sales ratio of 7.67x, according to Yahoo Finance.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Autonomous Vehicle Stocks to Buy Ahead of the Mobileye IPO</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Autonomous Vehicle Stocks to Buy Ahead of the Mobileye IPO\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-26 07:44 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/03/3-autonomous-vehicle-stocks-to-buy-ahead-of-the-mobileye-ipo/><strong>investorplace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Restrictions due to the coronavirus and regulatory issues have slowed the progress of autonomous vehicles more than I thought they would. However, I still believe that long-term investors will ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/03/3-autonomous-vehicle-stocks-to-buy-ahead-of-the-mobileye-ipo/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"EMBK":"Embark Technology, Inc","VLDR":"威力登激光雷达","AUR":"Aurora Innovation"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/03/3-autonomous-vehicle-stocks-to-buy-ahead-of-the-mobileye-ipo/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153047568","content_text":"Restrictions due to the coronavirus and regulatory issues have slowed the progress of autonomous vehicles more than I thought they would. However, I still believe that long-term investors will ultimately benefit a great deal from buying autonomous driving stocks. Many companies, including Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG, NASDAQ:GOOGL), General Motors (NYSE:GM), Velodyne (NASDAQ:VLDR), Embark (NASDAQ:EMBK) and Aurora Innovation (NASDAQ:AUR), are making a great deal of progress when it comes to commercializing self-driving technology on a significant scale.Meanwhile, fears of the coronavirus have dropped tremendously, and the Biden administration seems to have decided recently to quickly facilitate the proliferation of autonomous vehicles.For evidence of the latter trend, consider the fact that the  U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration recently decided to allow “fully autonomous vehicles” to be built without certain safety features previously required in all vehicles, such as steering wheels. Moreover, U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said earlier this month that his department does not want to prevent innovation in the autonomous vehicle space. He also predicted that regulation of the sector would evolve a great deal during the rest of the 2020’s.And at the beginning of March, Intel (NASDQ:INTC) filed papers with the Securities and Exchange Commission to launch an IPO of its Mobileye unit, which develops and sells self-driving and advanced driving assistance systems. If Mobileye’s shares attain a high valuation, they could provide a positive catalyst to other companies in the sector.Finally, since self-driving automobiles would save both businesses and consumers a great deal of time and money, I continue to believe that the technology will prove to be quite lucrative for the firms that successfully introduce it widely.As such, I think that the best ways for investors to benefit from the ultimate proliferation of self-driving vehicles is by buying the following autonomous driving stocks:Aurora Innovation (AUR)Embark (EMBK)Velodyne (VLDR)Autonomous Vehicle Stocks to Buy: Aurora Innovation (AUR)Encouragingly, way back in 2019, Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) invested in Aurora. In the process, it somewhat validated the company’s technology. It also helped make me more confident that Hyundai (OTCMKTS:HYMTF) also invested in the company in 2019.Recently, Aurora announced that it had developed self-driving technology that is able to “work across multiple vehicle types.” That level of standardization should greatly facilitate the use of Aurora’s system by transportation companies and automakers.Also increasing my confidence in AUR stock is the fact that the tech startup is partnering with “Volvo on autonomous trucks and Toyota to develop a fleet of self-driving Siennas,” according to Cnet.The current market capitalization of AUR stock is $6 billion. That’s not low, but I believe that it greatly undervalues the company’s long-term potential.Embark (EMBK)The company sells self-driving software for trucks called Embark Driver. It charges trucking companies a per-mile subscription fee for the use of the software.According to the company’s CEO, Alex Rodrigues, Embark uses technology that enables “trucks to update … maps in real time, which is critical when encountering situations like construction work zones, particularly when you’re on a two-lane highway and there are no alternative routes.” Moreover, the company’s system can be easily “integrated” with trucks made by any major manufacturer, and “some of the top carriers in the United States … [are its] customers.” For October, the company said that it had received “14,200 reservations for Embark-equipped autonomous trucks, more than twice the nearest public competitor” at that point.Rodrigues noted that, in the U.S., human truck drivers cannot drive their vehicles for more than 11 hours each day. And that Embark’s software can dramatically expand that number.Finally, the CEO reported that “over 1 million real world miles” had been driven using the company’s software “without a single department of Transportation reportable safety incident.”Stephen Houghton, who was named the company’s COO in February, worked on autonomous vehicles for Amazon and Cruise (currently owned by GM) for six years.Autonomous Vehicle Stocks to Buy: Velodyne (VLDR)In a very positive development, Velodyne announced last month that Amazon had purchased a warrant that could enable the e-commerce giant to buy nearly 40 million shares of VLDR stock. The warrant will become exercisable “based on discretionary payments made by Amazon pursuant to existing commercial agreements between Velodyne and Amazon,” Seeking Alpha explained. I think the deal suggests that Amazon believes that Velodyne has a great deal of potential.Also note that in 2017, Amazon obtained a warrant to buy up to 55.3 million shares of Plug Power (NASDAQ:PLUG) stock. PLUG stock finished 2017 at $1.93. On March 18, 2022, it closed at $26.15.In 2021, Velodyne’s shipments of sensors jumped 35% versus 2020 to slightly over 15,000. In 2019, the company shipped just over 12,000 sensors. Last quarter, it sold a record 4,900 sensors. The company’s revenue dropped 1.7% year-over-year because of its strategy of using lower prices to gain market share. Ultimately, however, I expect that approach will be quite successful.VLDR stock is trading at a reasonable trailing price-sales ratio of 7.67x, according to Yahoo Finance.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":393,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9032578350,"gmtCreate":1647411718941,"gmtModify":1676534226778,"author":{"id":"3576908294467124","authorId":"3576908294467124","name":"JNPJEREMY","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c4fa9c8df5ca3e060f63abe8c72c9c3d","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576908294467124","authorIdStr":"3576908294467124"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sense alot of optimism in this one","listText":"Sense alot of optimism in this one","text":"Sense alot of optimism in this one","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9032578350","repostId":"2219220927","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2219220927","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1647399932,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2219220927?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-16 11:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Everyone Is Expecting A Crash, Or Stagflation, So It's Happening - That's Not How It Works","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2219220927","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Dzmitry Dzemidovich/iStock via Getty ImagesThe CrashI was chatting with a friend down in Florida, an","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28319f61011d69850e7ae4256381ed8f\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Dzmitry Dzemidovich/iStock via Getty Images</p><h2><b>The Crash</b></h2><p>I was chatting with a friend down in Florida, and knowing my favorite topic is the stock market, he asked me what did I think of the crash. I wasn’t sure what he meant, he added the stock market crash, what did I think? The question took the notion that the market is going to crash as received wisdom. He was asking what I thought the ramifications would be. I said that I didn’t think there would be a crash. That was met with a bit of awkward silence. Other conversations this weekend with friends and acquaintances yielded a certainty that inflation will be intractable and will be a persistent feature of the economic landscape for years to come. I don’t agree, I may have underestimated how long inflation news would persist, but I believe that inflation will begin to recede in mid-May, certainly, none of these conditions portends a crash.</p><p>Crashes happen when no <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> is expecting them. That everyone is talking about millionaires who were first in into whatever fad everyone is convinced will never go down. The most recent that comes to mind is the teenage crypto millionaires. I am not claiming that crypto is about to crash, just using it as an example. When no one believes the stock markets (or real estate and yes Bitcoin) can EVER crash that is when it really hits hard. This may sound familiar to the older folk who’ve lived through the housing bubble, or dot com bubble. If not let me familiarize you with the phenomenon. Everyone and his brother is in the market including your cab driver. Pretty soon everyone is buying in and sure they will be millionaires. It’s at that point that the market has run out of buyers, that&#39;s when a &#34;crash&#34; happens. The catalyst doesn’t matter right now, It’s like setting up dominoes standing up in a long row, even the tiniest touch on the first one can create a huge chain reaction. If everyone is already “All In” and maybe even leveraged the only thing to do is sell. That is how a crash happens.</p><h2><b>Here it is the complete opposite, everyone is pushing the notion of a crash</b></h2><p>Everyone is talking about a bear market, the economy is going into a recession, why? Take your pick. The market is running out of steam. No! The economy is overheating and Powell is behind the curve on inflation! He must raise interest rates 200-300 basis points, and then he’ll cause a recession by overtightening. Have you noticed that these two opposing notions are punted in the same conversation? Let’s get this straight, a recession means the economy has slowed so much that it is falling. Officially, economists count an economy in recession if there are 2 quarters with negative growth. While inflation is usually a result of the market growing TOO FAST. So naturally the purveyors of hot air resort to using stagflation, which encompasses both zero growth AND inflation. This conflation is gaining a lot of currency as those who promote the notion that stagflation happens all the time. In fact, it is exceedingly rare, rarer than a blue moon. The only time stagflation has ever happened in modern history was when the term was coined, during the Carter administration. Will rising interest rates create more chips? More homes? More cars? No, raising interest rates will slow the demand for those items. I am not against raising interest rates, but even as interest rates are rising that the economy will continue to grow, and supply will return lowering prices. I believe that Powell will not overreact, I still see no evidence to believe otherwise, no matter how many times pundits bring it up.</p><p>Let me try and tie all of this together, 2022 is not the 1970s, Stagflation is a rare thing to the special circumstances of the 1970s. A wage-price hike spiral is very unlikely to happen. Surprisingly or perhaps not, worker wages are the biggest expense and the largest influence on inflation. Remember I said that the 70s had hardly any productivity? That is not at all true today.</p><h2><b>Market sentiment gets super negative when participants’ imaginations are unbound</b></h2><p>A big rule about market behavior is how it hates the unknown. The market will embrace every negative notion and worst-case scenario. The worst-case scenario that is remotely viable in this case is stagflation so that is where the chatter is. For every piece of news, people are inventing new ways to hate the market and convince the person next to them to dump stocks. In a market like this with most people being sellers, it wouldn&#39;t take anything at all positive to create a buying stampede. In this kind of setup</p><h2><b>Let’s be real the last few months have not been all that fun</b></h2><p>Historically 15% down on the S&amp;P is not unusual, even the 20% correction on the Nasdaq is not unusual. You can have episodes like this and not only regain ATH but exceed the all-time high in no time. On the other hand, long-running bear markets start this way. Lucky for us, you can’t have a sustained bear market without a recession, and we aren’t having that. At some point, the market will adjust valuation, create a base and begin to rise again. The market rises about 80% of the time, so without a degrading economy, you may have a momentary fall to the 20% level but are likely to bounce back. That is kind of where we are now, valuations have been adjusted downward, for a laundry list of reasons, Covid, inflation, Putin’s war, Interest hikes that could hit the economy. I admit we have had quite a run of negativity. I also admit that the indexes have not found a support level. However we are getting very close, the forward PE is about 18 times on the S&amp;P, which should be the right valuation even at +2.5% on the 10-year.</p><h2><b>Prediction time</b></h2><p>I am not saying we will take off like a rocket, we had instead very rocky trading last week. I do believe that leading to the Fed announcement we could have some weakness and then a decent pop on the news conference, as I expect Powell to find his dovish voice again. I guess this is another prediction. The reason why I am saying Powell will sound conciliatory is the likelihood of a default of sovereign debt by Russia. This might have a bigger effect on European banks than domestic, the Fed may fear that it might disrupt the liquidity of the US bond market. Our banks have been through all kinds of simulations for years and are not allowed to leverage up anywhere near where banks were in 2007 when we had the housing bubble. This may yet be another reason for the market to sell off when the default is announced perhaps in a week or 2. I think this will be a very good opportunity to confirm that we have finally found that base. Before then I think we get a decent pop from Powell’s performance</p><h2><b>We haven’t achieved a base as yet but definitely have a trading range</b></h2><p>We first touched back to 4200 on the S&amp;P in January, we’ve trading around this level to now. We have been chopping around this level and higher. We are not yet in a downtrend on the S&amp;P. Let’s take a look at the chart.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7ec679d2f3edba677a4e17a7b1e8fd9\" tg-width=\"1109\" tg-height=\"581\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>seekingalpha.com</p><p>Well, nothing is screaming at me, but this 4200ish level could be a base. If my prediction is correct, looking at this chart I could see S&amp;P reaching 4300, if we can sustain a rally for more than one day.</p><h2><b>Markets like this take a lot of attention and self-control</b></h2><p>Though it feels very stressful, and not as much fun to be in the market, I require myself to review the facts and still find much to be optimistic regarding prospects for a strong finish to 2022. I could very well envision reaching higher highs (5200+?) before December. Don’t let your emotions get in the way of cutting losers. I won&#39;t say I am perfect on that score, but I try to be aware when I am emotionally overly attached. There&#39;s a fine line between having conviction and being emotionally attached. Trading is like any other high-performance activity, you get to a level where mental strength and self-awareness are just as important to success as technique or tactics. You need those qualities to monitor your mental state and whether you are overly attached to anyone&#39;s position and have the strength to counter that tendency. You must also have the mental strength to maintain conviction to hold a position if you have done the best to vet it from a fundamental side and technical aspect. It takes guts to watch one of your stocks fall further and further and not let it get to you.</p><p>Amazon (AMZN) announced a 1 to 20 split. I predicted this weeks ago. Here is what I think they do next. The week ending February 5th, I wrote in my weekly analysis that AMZN will likely be the next to announce a split. I am basing my speculation on what happens next by who Andrew Jassy is, and also something I thought made a ton of sense years ago, and that is to spin off AWS. AWS is by all rights a very substantial company in its own right and could be worth $750B to 1 Trillion on its own. AWS really has little to do with the rest of AMZN. It just makes a ton of sense for the shareholders to have the company trade separately if only to boost the value of AMZN stock. As you may already know Jassy was the CEO of AWS before he was named CEO of all of AMZN. AWS is the fastest-growing part of AMZN, providing huge cash flow to fund the other parts of AMZN. The split still makes sense, AMZN could hold a special class of stock that gives them a dividend or hive off a huge amount of debt while interest rates are so low. The fact Jassy would see his baby trade as an independent creation is just a bonus. The boost in capitalization via the spin-off and the present value of a huge chunk of change to fund operations for years to come is a good trade-off. Also, the spin-off would lower the heat on the FCC suing them as a monopoly, which would be a huge distraction. The fact that he split the company and announced a buyback after years of not buying shares, tells me that he wants to boost the stock price. If he keeps the buyback as an ongoing program, the AWS is the ultimate move for shareholder value.</p><p>I don’t have a lot of exciting news about new trades. Really my current role right now is to try to manage my current positions and use the volatility to my advantage. So not a lot of visible movement but a lot of watchful waiting. Buying the dip yes, but is this the lowest low? Can the stock go lower? When my positions are green are they high enough to trim shares? That is less fun than falling in love with a new trade.</p><p>stocks can go lower, however, I do believe that the upside at this point for many tech names more than compensates the risk. Why do I harp on tech? Precisely because it has become very unfashionable. Many of the wise men and women have eschewed growth stocks, especially stocks that were the most esteemed only a few months ago. I am a reflexive contrarian, and this year has been building up to be my biggest contrarian play ever.</p><h2><b>My Trades</b></h2><p>First, the bad news was I had a position in DocuSign (DOCU) they announced earnings and revenue that was very good but forward guidance disappointed me. I promptly sold the position at 78 in the aftermarket. I really like the business model, so at some point, once DOCU finally finds support I will try to leg into it. Meanwhile, I will use the funds freed up from this name to buy more Upstart (UPST).</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Meta Platforms</a> (FB) spent $44.5 billion on share buybacks in 2021 leading the company to repurchase 8.4% of the current market cap. The stock is starting to have solid downside protection. It should continue to buy in shares at the same rate this year. FB recently had a gap down, charting shows that stocks tend to fill in gaps. Let’s take a look at a chart.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d09f52f172ecb6b342a2985ee606f74\" tg-width=\"1109\" tg-height=\"581\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>seekingalpha.com</p><p>On Friday FB sold down below 190, I think that is a great level. I already started building a position, I am hoping it allows me to acquire more in the 180s.</p><p>Asana (ASAN) got punished for not projecting profits near term because they want to re-invest. I have a small position in it. I took profits a while ago. I’m going to rebuild the position again, they said they are giving up profits now to add capabilities to the product. I believe the stock will regain some altitude once the market comes back to its senses and reward the forward-thinking. You are supposed to invest in the future. If the CEO had no credibility and the track record of this company was bad I wouldn&#39;t buy in. Instead, it has an exceptional growth pattern, and the stock is on sale.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPO\">XPO Logistics</a>, Inc.(XPO) stock rallied more than 8% in after-market trading on Tuesday after the logistics company announced plans to split itself into two publicly traded companies, a deal it said would be tax-free to shareholders. One of the companies will be one of the largest US companies in the LTL trucking business. The other part would encompass XPO&#39;s freight brokerage business, which matches loads from shipping customers to available trucks to carry them, and the other is its U.S. trucking business. This is essentially a technology adjacent cloud application business. I am very excited to receive this new company. Its European business and North American intermodal operations would be sold. The company said it expects to complete the spin-off in the fourth quarter of 2022, subject to the final approval of the XPO board. In a presentation to shareholders, XPO pegged 2021 revenue from its freight brokerage company at $4.8 billion, and from the trucking business at $4.1 billion. Shares of XPO ended the regular trading day up 2.7%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXPE\">Expedia</a> (EXPE) Strong revenue growth FCF and mostly domestic travel so less affected by Ukraine. Still, this name has been hammered on every development in Ukraine. I currently have Call options, now I will accumulate the underlying equities.</p><p>Airbnb (ABNB) I think I bought this stock near its bottom, at about 150. I started this position 2 weeks ago and I need to fill this one up. I am hoping to get some in the 140s. I like the reopening related tech companies since Covid is in the rearview mirror.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a> (PYPL) is another once high flier that has fallen so much that it’s practically a value play. I have been adding to my position under 100, and I plan on continuing to do so this week.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDOG\">Datadog</a> (DDOG) I managed to do a fast money trade with DDOG in the aftermath of its earnings. I started buying it again, and I guess I should have waited even though I started buying at a lower level than the last time. I am pretty confident that DDOG is a quality name.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Everyone Is Expecting A Crash, Or Stagflation, So It's Happening - That's Not How It Works</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEveryone Is Expecting A Crash, Or Stagflation, So It's Happening - That's Not How It Works\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-16 11:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4495208-everyone-expecting-crash-stagflatiion-happening-not-how-it-works><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Dzmitry Dzemidovich/iStock via Getty ImagesThe CrashI was chatting with a friend down in Florida, and knowing my favorite topic is the stock market, he asked me what did I think of the crash. I wasn’t...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4495208-everyone-expecting-crash-stagflatiion-happening-not-how-it-works\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4538":"云计算","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4166":"消费信贷","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","ASAN":"阿莎娜","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","EXPE":"Expedia","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","DDOG":"Datadog","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","DOCU":"Docusign","BK4022":"陆运","BK4573":"虚拟现实","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","PYPL":"PayPal","XPO":"XPO Logistics","ABNB":"爱彼迎","BK4142":"酒店、度假村与豪华游轮","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4528":"SaaS概念","BK4023":"应用软件","BK4106":"数据处理与外包服务","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4566":"资本集团","UPST":"Upstart Holdings, Inc.","BK4525":"远程办公概念","BK4508":"社交媒体","AMZN":"亚马逊","BK4524":"宅经济概念"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4495208-everyone-expecting-crash-stagflatiion-happening-not-how-it-works","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2219220927","content_text":"Dzmitry Dzemidovich/iStock via Getty ImagesThe CrashI was chatting with a friend down in Florida, and knowing my favorite topic is the stock market, he asked me what did I think of the crash. I wasn’t sure what he meant, he added the stock market crash, what did I think? The question took the notion that the market is going to crash as received wisdom. He was asking what I thought the ramifications would be. I said that I didn’t think there would be a crash. That was met with a bit of awkward silence. Other conversations this weekend with friends and acquaintances yielded a certainty that inflation will be intractable and will be a persistent feature of the economic landscape for years to come. I don’t agree, I may have underestimated how long inflation news would persist, but I believe that inflation will begin to recede in mid-May, certainly, none of these conditions portends a crash.Crashes happen when no one is expecting them. That everyone is talking about millionaires who were first in into whatever fad everyone is convinced will never go down. The most recent that comes to mind is the teenage crypto millionaires. I am not claiming that crypto is about to crash, just using it as an example. When no one believes the stock markets (or real estate and yes Bitcoin) can EVER crash that is when it really hits hard. This may sound familiar to the older folk who’ve lived through the housing bubble, or dot com bubble. If not let me familiarize you with the phenomenon. Everyone and his brother is in the market including your cab driver. Pretty soon everyone is buying in and sure they will be millionaires. It’s at that point that the market has run out of buyers, that's when a \"crash\" happens. The catalyst doesn’t matter right now, It’s like setting up dominoes standing up in a long row, even the tiniest touch on the first one can create a huge chain reaction. If everyone is already “All In” and maybe even leveraged the only thing to do is sell. That is how a crash happens.Here it is the complete opposite, everyone is pushing the notion of a crashEveryone is talking about a bear market, the economy is going into a recession, why? Take your pick. The market is running out of steam. No! The economy is overheating and Powell is behind the curve on inflation! He must raise interest rates 200-300 basis points, and then he’ll cause a recession by overtightening. Have you noticed that these two opposing notions are punted in the same conversation? Let’s get this straight, a recession means the economy has slowed so much that it is falling. Officially, economists count an economy in recession if there are 2 quarters with negative growth. While inflation is usually a result of the market growing TOO FAST. So naturally the purveyors of hot air resort to using stagflation, which encompasses both zero growth AND inflation. This conflation is gaining a lot of currency as those who promote the notion that stagflation happens all the time. In fact, it is exceedingly rare, rarer than a blue moon. The only time stagflation has ever happened in modern history was when the term was coined, during the Carter administration. Will rising interest rates create more chips? More homes? More cars? No, raising interest rates will slow the demand for those items. I am not against raising interest rates, but even as interest rates are rising that the economy will continue to grow, and supply will return lowering prices. I believe that Powell will not overreact, I still see no evidence to believe otherwise, no matter how many times pundits bring it up.Let me try and tie all of this together, 2022 is not the 1970s, Stagflation is a rare thing to the special circumstances of the 1970s. A wage-price hike spiral is very unlikely to happen. Surprisingly or perhaps not, worker wages are the biggest expense and the largest influence on inflation. Remember I said that the 70s had hardly any productivity? That is not at all true today.Market sentiment gets super negative when participants’ imaginations are unboundA big rule about market behavior is how it hates the unknown. The market will embrace every negative notion and worst-case scenario. The worst-case scenario that is remotely viable in this case is stagflation so that is where the chatter is. For every piece of news, people are inventing new ways to hate the market and convince the person next to them to dump stocks. In a market like this with most people being sellers, it wouldn't take anything at all positive to create a buying stampede. In this kind of setupLet’s be real the last few months have not been all that funHistorically 15% down on the S&P is not unusual, even the 20% correction on the Nasdaq is not unusual. You can have episodes like this and not only regain ATH but exceed the all-time high in no time. On the other hand, long-running bear markets start this way. Lucky for us, you can’t have a sustained bear market without a recession, and we aren’t having that. At some point, the market will adjust valuation, create a base and begin to rise again. The market rises about 80% of the time, so without a degrading economy, you may have a momentary fall to the 20% level but are likely to bounce back. That is kind of where we are now, valuations have been adjusted downward, for a laundry list of reasons, Covid, inflation, Putin’s war, Interest hikes that could hit the economy. I admit we have had quite a run of negativity. I also admit that the indexes have not found a support level. However we are getting very close, the forward PE is about 18 times on the S&P, which should be the right valuation even at +2.5% on the 10-year.Prediction timeI am not saying we will take off like a rocket, we had instead very rocky trading last week. I do believe that leading to the Fed announcement we could have some weakness and then a decent pop on the news conference, as I expect Powell to find his dovish voice again. I guess this is another prediction. The reason why I am saying Powell will sound conciliatory is the likelihood of a default of sovereign debt by Russia. This might have a bigger effect on European banks than domestic, the Fed may fear that it might disrupt the liquidity of the US bond market. Our banks have been through all kinds of simulations for years and are not allowed to leverage up anywhere near where banks were in 2007 when we had the housing bubble. This may yet be another reason for the market to sell off when the default is announced perhaps in a week or 2. I think this will be a very good opportunity to confirm that we have finally found that base. Before then I think we get a decent pop from Powell’s performanceWe haven’t achieved a base as yet but definitely have a trading rangeWe first touched back to 4200 on the S&P in January, we’ve trading around this level to now. We have been chopping around this level and higher. We are not yet in a downtrend on the S&P. Let’s take a look at the chart.seekingalpha.comWell, nothing is screaming at me, but this 4200ish level could be a base. If my prediction is correct, looking at this chart I could see S&P reaching 4300, if we can sustain a rally for more than one day.Markets like this take a lot of attention and self-controlThough it feels very stressful, and not as much fun to be in the market, I require myself to review the facts and still find much to be optimistic regarding prospects for a strong finish to 2022. I could very well envision reaching higher highs (5200+?) before December. Don’t let your emotions get in the way of cutting losers. I won't say I am perfect on that score, but I try to be aware when I am emotionally overly attached. There's a fine line between having conviction and being emotionally attached. Trading is like any other high-performance activity, you get to a level where mental strength and self-awareness are just as important to success as technique or tactics. You need those qualities to monitor your mental state and whether you are overly attached to anyone's position and have the strength to counter that tendency. You must also have the mental strength to maintain conviction to hold a position if you have done the best to vet it from a fundamental side and technical aspect. It takes guts to watch one of your stocks fall further and further and not let it get to you.Amazon (AMZN) announced a 1 to 20 split. I predicted this weeks ago. Here is what I think they do next. The week ending February 5th, I wrote in my weekly analysis that AMZN will likely be the next to announce a split. I am basing my speculation on what happens next by who Andrew Jassy is, and also something I thought made a ton of sense years ago, and that is to spin off AWS. AWS is by all rights a very substantial company in its own right and could be worth $750B to 1 Trillion on its own. AWS really has little to do with the rest of AMZN. It just makes a ton of sense for the shareholders to have the company trade separately if only to boost the value of AMZN stock. As you may already know Jassy was the CEO of AWS before he was named CEO of all of AMZN. AWS is the fastest-growing part of AMZN, providing huge cash flow to fund the other parts of AMZN. The split still makes sense, AMZN could hold a special class of stock that gives them a dividend or hive off a huge amount of debt while interest rates are so low. The fact Jassy would see his baby trade as an independent creation is just a bonus. The boost in capitalization via the spin-off and the present value of a huge chunk of change to fund operations for years to come is a good trade-off. Also, the spin-off would lower the heat on the FCC suing them as a monopoly, which would be a huge distraction. The fact that he split the company and announced a buyback after years of not buying shares, tells me that he wants to boost the stock price. If he keeps the buyback as an ongoing program, the AWS is the ultimate move for shareholder value.I don’t have a lot of exciting news about new trades. Really my current role right now is to try to manage my current positions and use the volatility to my advantage. So not a lot of visible movement but a lot of watchful waiting. Buying the dip yes, but is this the lowest low? Can the stock go lower? When my positions are green are they high enough to trim shares? That is less fun than falling in love with a new trade.stocks can go lower, however, I do believe that the upside at this point for many tech names more than compensates the risk. Why do I harp on tech? Precisely because it has become very unfashionable. Many of the wise men and women have eschewed growth stocks, especially stocks that were the most esteemed only a few months ago. I am a reflexive contrarian, and this year has been building up to be my biggest contrarian play ever.My TradesFirst, the bad news was I had a position in DocuSign (DOCU) they announced earnings and revenue that was very good but forward guidance disappointed me. I promptly sold the position at 78 in the aftermarket. I really like the business model, so at some point, once DOCU finally finds support I will try to leg into it. Meanwhile, I will use the funds freed up from this name to buy more Upstart (UPST).Meta Platforms (FB) spent $44.5 billion on share buybacks in 2021 leading the company to repurchase 8.4% of the current market cap. The stock is starting to have solid downside protection. It should continue to buy in shares at the same rate this year. FB recently had a gap down, charting shows that stocks tend to fill in gaps. Let’s take a look at a chart.seekingalpha.comOn Friday FB sold down below 190, I think that is a great level. I already started building a position, I am hoping it allows me to acquire more in the 180s.Asana (ASAN) got punished for not projecting profits near term because they want to re-invest. I have a small position in it. I took profits a while ago. I’m going to rebuild the position again, they said they are giving up profits now to add capabilities to the product. I believe the stock will regain some altitude once the market comes back to its senses and reward the forward-thinking. You are supposed to invest in the future. If the CEO had no credibility and the track record of this company was bad I wouldn't buy in. Instead, it has an exceptional growth pattern, and the stock is on sale.XPO Logistics, Inc.(XPO) stock rallied more than 8% in after-market trading on Tuesday after the logistics company announced plans to split itself into two publicly traded companies, a deal it said would be tax-free to shareholders. One of the companies will be one of the largest US companies in the LTL trucking business. The other part would encompass XPO's freight brokerage business, which matches loads from shipping customers to available trucks to carry them, and the other is its U.S. trucking business. This is essentially a technology adjacent cloud application business. I am very excited to receive this new company. Its European business and North American intermodal operations would be sold. The company said it expects to complete the spin-off in the fourth quarter of 2022, subject to the final approval of the XPO board. In a presentation to shareholders, XPO pegged 2021 revenue from its freight brokerage company at $4.8 billion, and from the trucking business at $4.1 billion. Shares of XPO ended the regular trading day up 2.7%.Expedia (EXPE) Strong revenue growth FCF and mostly domestic travel so less affected by Ukraine. Still, this name has been hammered on every development in Ukraine. I currently have Call options, now I will accumulate the underlying equities.Airbnb (ABNB) I think I bought this stock near its bottom, at about 150. I started this position 2 weeks ago and I need to fill this one up. I am hoping to get some in the 140s. I like the reopening related tech companies since Covid is in the rearview mirror.PayPal (PYPL) is another once high flier that has fallen so much that it’s practically a value play. I have been adding to my position under 100, and I plan on continuing to do so this week.Datadog (DDOG) I managed to do a fast money trade with DDOG in the aftermath of its earnings. I started buying it again, and I guess I should have waited even though I started buying at a lower level than the last time. I am pretty confident that DDOG is a quality name.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":107,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9032869626,"gmtCreate":1647329985157,"gmtModify":1676534217362,"author":{"id":"3576908294467124","authorId":"3576908294467124","name":"JNPJEREMY","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c4fa9c8df5ca3e060f63abe8c72c9c3d","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576908294467124","authorIdStr":"3576908294467124"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"To author of this tiger press....And&nbsp;your point is?&nbsp;","listText":"To author of this tiger press....And&nbsp;your point is?&nbsp;","text":"To author of this tiger press....And your point is?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9032869626","repostId":"1183488934","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1183488934","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1647324534,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1183488934?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-15 14:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla‘s Market Cap ≈ Sum of Five Chinese Internet Giants","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183488934","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"According to the closing price on March 14 in the U.S. market, Tesla is almost equal to the sum of T","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>According to the closing price on March 14 in the U.S. market, Tesla is almost equal to the sum of Tencent, Alibaba, Meituan,JD.com and Netease by market cap.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12b625c7a48052a2ca919a67e47c093a\" tg-width=\"1500\" tg-height=\"1700\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla‘s Market Cap ≈ Sum of Five Chinese Internet Giants</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla‘s Market Cap ≈ Sum of Five Chinese Internet Giants\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-03-15 14:08</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>According to the closing price on March 14 in the U.S. market, Tesla is almost equal to the sum of Tencent, Alibaba, Meituan,JD.com and Netease by market cap.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12b625c7a48052a2ca919a67e47c093a\" tg-width=\"1500\" tg-height=\"1700\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"03690":"美团-W","JD":"京东","NTES":"网易","BABA":"阿里巴巴","00700":"腾讯控股","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183488934","content_text":"According to the closing price on March 14 in the U.S. market, Tesla is almost equal to the sum of Tencent, Alibaba, Meituan,JD.com and Netease by market cap.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":405,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9039448055,"gmtCreate":1646107285512,"gmtModify":1676534092110,"author":{"id":"3576908294467124","authorId":"3576908294467124","name":"JNPJEREMY","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c4fa9c8df5ca3e060f63abe8c72c9c3d","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576908294467124","authorIdStr":"3576908294467124"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Don't bet against Elon. We shall see how this article ages in a few years time.","listText":"Don't bet against Elon. We shall see how this article ages in a few years time.","text":"Don't bet against Elon. We shall see how this article ages in a few years time.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9039448055","repostId":"1106936697","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1106936697","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1646104713,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1106936697?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-01 11:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Is Still Fundamentally Overvalued","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106936697","media":"investorplace","summary":"Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock has lost about one-third of its value since hitting an all-time high of $1,222/share at the start of November.Tesla stock opened on Feb. 28 at $815. That’s still a market cap","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock has lost about one-third of its value since hitting an all-time high of $1,222/share at the start of November.</p><p>Tesla stock opened on Feb. 28 at $815. That’s still a market capitalization of over $890 billion on 2021 revenues of $53.8 billion. Tesla brought 10% of that revenue to the net income line, but the price to earnings (P/E) ratio is still 177, and the price to sales (P/S) ratio 17.</p><p>Tesla stock has always risen against a tide of bearishness, an assumption that CEO Elon Musk could not do what he was in fact doing. But fewer than 3% of shares are now being held short. Analysts are bullish, with 16 of 29 at Tipranks saying buy it.</p><p>That’s probably why I wouldn’t touch it right now.</p><h2>Tesla Still Just Makes Cars</h2><p>CEO Elon Musk has always called Tesla a technology company, but it is still a manufacturer. Manufacturers need supply chains. Supply chains around the world are being disrupted. War and pandemics are inherently disruptive things. Both are generally unhealthy for economies and other living things.</p><p>Ultimately, Tesla isn’t falling because of Musk’s Twitter, a Justice Department probe of shorts or relations with the Biden administration.</p><p>It’s falling on fundamentals. Scaling is difficult. It doesn’t get easier, for cars anyway, after the initial scaling.</p><p>The electric vehicle posse has been after Tesla for years, and they’re closing in. Lucid Group (NASDAQ:LCID) and Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN) are delivering electric cars that look very Tesla-like. Ford Motor (NYSE:F) has begun doing the same. Volkswagen (OTCMKTS:VWAGY) is ramping up production. Chinese companies are now strong enough to get by on reduced government help.</p><p>To justify its current price, Tesla needs to become bigger than General Motors (NYSE:GM) or Ford within just a few years. Opening its German plant will help. But you’re still assuming last year’s growth of 83% in car deliveries can be replicated. You’re still assuming Tesla can produce, and sell, hundreds of thousands of its butt-ugly Cybertrucks in Texas against Ford, GM, and Toyota (NYSE:TM).</p><h2>Stock Market Exuberance</h2><p>Tesla stock has been falling even while pension funds like Canada’s have been piling in. The assumption is that Tesla is Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), that its software, electricity, insurance and services will multiply the value of each Tesla sale. But almost 90% of Tesla revenue still comes from cars. Tesla is not a solar panel company either. Battery storage revenues fell 38% in 2021.</p><p>That’s not to say Tesla hasn’t performed well. It has.</p><p>But its stock price assumes it can keep growing near its present rate, even as electric car production elsewhere ramps up.</p><p>We saw this last year with cloud stocks. There’s a limit to what people will pay for growth. Tesla seems to have gone through that limit, at ludicrous speed.</p><p>Meanwhile the Musks have taken their eyes off the ball. Buying Bitcoin while pretending to be unaware of its environmental damage is just stupid. Going into the video game industry is also stupid.</p><h2>The Bottom Line on TSLA Stock</h2><p>There are limits to what investors should pay for growth.</p><p>I think Tesla has exceeded those limits.</p><p>This doesn’t mean Tesla is a bad company. I think it can easily grow its top line by 50% this year, profitably. But then that growth is going to slow. Big numbers are harder to shift. The diversity of income Tesla once promised isn’t happening. It’s still a car company, and Elon Musk is growing bored with it.</p><p>If you assume TSLA stock is worth 10 times current revenue, or that its profit can double and it’s worth 30 times that, you’re still looking at a big drop in its stock price. I think there are better growth opportunities out there, in clouds, in software, in things that scale more easily than cars.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Is Still Fundamentally Overvalued</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Is Still Fundamentally Overvalued\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-01 11:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/02/tsla-stock-still-fundamentally-overvalued/><strong>investorplace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock has lost about one-third of its value since hitting an all-time high of $1,222/share at the start of November.Tesla stock opened on Feb. 28 at $815. That’s still a market ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/02/tsla-stock-still-fundamentally-overvalued/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/02/tsla-stock-still-fundamentally-overvalued/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106936697","content_text":"Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock has lost about one-third of its value since hitting an all-time high of $1,222/share at the start of November.Tesla stock opened on Feb. 28 at $815. That’s still a market capitalization of over $890 billion on 2021 revenues of $53.8 billion. Tesla brought 10% of that revenue to the net income line, but the price to earnings (P/E) ratio is still 177, and the price to sales (P/S) ratio 17.Tesla stock has always risen against a tide of bearishness, an assumption that CEO Elon Musk could not do what he was in fact doing. But fewer than 3% of shares are now being held short. Analysts are bullish, with 16 of 29 at Tipranks saying buy it.That’s probably why I wouldn’t touch it right now.Tesla Still Just Makes CarsCEO Elon Musk has always called Tesla a technology company, but it is still a manufacturer. Manufacturers need supply chains. Supply chains around the world are being disrupted. War and pandemics are inherently disruptive things. Both are generally unhealthy for economies and other living things.Ultimately, Tesla isn’t falling because of Musk’s Twitter, a Justice Department probe of shorts or relations with the Biden administration.It’s falling on fundamentals. Scaling is difficult. It doesn’t get easier, for cars anyway, after the initial scaling.The electric vehicle posse has been after Tesla for years, and they’re closing in. Lucid Group (NASDAQ:LCID) and Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN) are delivering electric cars that look very Tesla-like. Ford Motor (NYSE:F) has begun doing the same. Volkswagen (OTCMKTS:VWAGY) is ramping up production. Chinese companies are now strong enough to get by on reduced government help.To justify its current price, Tesla needs to become bigger than General Motors (NYSE:GM) or Ford within just a few years. Opening its German plant will help. But you’re still assuming last year’s growth of 83% in car deliveries can be replicated. You’re still assuming Tesla can produce, and sell, hundreds of thousands of its butt-ugly Cybertrucks in Texas against Ford, GM, and Toyota (NYSE:TM).Stock Market ExuberanceTesla stock has been falling even while pension funds like Canada’s have been piling in. The assumption is that Tesla is Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), that its software, electricity, insurance and services will multiply the value of each Tesla sale. But almost 90% of Tesla revenue still comes from cars. Tesla is not a solar panel company either. Battery storage revenues fell 38% in 2021.That’s not to say Tesla hasn’t performed well. It has.But its stock price assumes it can keep growing near its present rate, even as electric car production elsewhere ramps up.We saw this last year with cloud stocks. There’s a limit to what people will pay for growth. Tesla seems to have gone through that limit, at ludicrous speed.Meanwhile the Musks have taken their eyes off the ball. Buying Bitcoin while pretending to be unaware of its environmental damage is just stupid. Going into the video game industry is also stupid.The Bottom Line on TSLA StockThere are limits to what investors should pay for growth.I think Tesla has exceeded those limits.This doesn’t mean Tesla is a bad company. I think it can easily grow its top line by 50% this year, profitably. But then that growth is going to slow. Big numbers are harder to shift. The diversity of income Tesla once promised isn’t happening. It’s still a car company, and Elon Musk is growing bored with it.If you assume TSLA stock is worth 10 times current revenue, or that its profit can double and it’s worth 30 times that, you’re still looking at a big drop in its stock price. I think there are better growth opportunities out there, in clouds, in software, in things that scale more easily than cars.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":514,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9005966407,"gmtCreate":1642147363762,"gmtModify":1676533686586,"author":{"id":"3576908294467124","authorId":"3576908294467124","name":"JNPJEREMY","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c4fa9c8df5ca3e060f63abe8c72c9c3d","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576908294467124","authorIdStr":"3576908294467124"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"We shall see if this article ages well","listText":"We shall see if this article ages well","text":"We shall see if this article ages well","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9005966407","repostId":"1189278661","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1189278661","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1642127310,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1189278661?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-14 10:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: A Defense Of My $5 Price Target","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189278661","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryI respond to reader feedback on my most recent Palantir article.Reader feedback is divided in","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>I respond to reader feedback on my most recent Palantir article.</li><li>Reader feedback is divided into four categories: valuation, company losses, moat, and scalability.</li><li>I stand by my assertion that Palantir is highly overvalued.</li></ul><p>My previous article on the big-data company <b>Palantir (PLTR)</b>created quite a stir. With over 700 comments and a significant amount of (negative) feedback, I believe it is appropriate to share my thoughts on some of the most important questions I have received in this article. In terms of disclosure, I do not have a short position in Palantir and do not intend to open one. I simply believe that the company&#39;s stock is difficult, if not impossible, to justify based on the company&#39;s financials.</p><p><b>My $5 Price Target For Palantir</b></p><p>In my previous article, &#34;Palantir: Fair Value Of $5,&#34; I claimed that the big-data company was fundamentally and unjustifiably overvalued. My reasoning was that a company that has been in business for as long as Palantir should have much better financials in place that look significantly better than what we see in the 10Q quarterly reports.</p><p>My main concern was Palantir&#39;s valuation, which requires buyers to pay a sales multiple of twenty. A P/E ratio of 20 would be considered high in normal and more sober times. Even allowing for Palantir&#39;s annual growth rate of 30%+, paying 20 times (expected) sales is still a bit of a stretch and requires a lot of faith that the sales growth will actually materialize. Even if it does, Palantir&#39;s valuation appears indefensible.</p><p>I&#39;d like to take this opportunity to address some of the feedback I received regarding the four areas where I received the most questions (valuation, company losses, moat and scalability).</p><p><b>Valuation</b></p><p>Many readers strongly disagreed with my assessment. The most common question I received centered on the idea that Palantir achieves significant revenue growth and that, as a result of this rapid growth, Palantir deserves a market capitalization of at least $10 billion.</p><p>This argument ignores the fact that, for valuation purposes, the size of the revenue base is just as important as the rate of sales growth. I also don&#39;t deny that Palantir&#39;s revenue is rapidly increasing. According to the company&#39;s long-term sales forecast, the company is aiming for a 30% annual growth rate. Palantir&#39;s outlook was confirmed in the company&#39;s most recent quarterly earnings report, and the company expects 40% growth this year.</p><p>Palantir is rapidly expanding, but the revenue base must be considered alongside the sales growth rate for any sense to be made. If I run a business with $1 million in annual sales and double my sales every year, that doesn&#39;t mean the company &#34;should be worth $10 billion.&#34; This conclusion cannot be reached without taking into account the dollar revenue base. While Palantir&#39;s revenue growth rate of 30% should not be overlooked, it is not 100%.</p><p>Palantir has a market capitalization of $34 billion, and the market expects revenue of $1.53 billion in 2021 and $1.99 billion in 2022. Here, the implied sales multiples are 22 (2021e) and 17 (2022e). Palantir&#39;s growth multiples are excessive and are at risk of further contraction. Paying around 20 times sales for a business, even if it is perfect, is more than a stretch; it may be a suicide mission.</p><p><b>IPO And Losses</b></p><p>In response to my previous article, I received a lot of feedback along the lines of &#34;Palantir is investing money, and this money will come back later in terms of free cash flow,&#34; or &#34;Palantir just had its IPO, and profits are not expected.&#34;</p><p>Both arguments, in my opinion, are flawed.</p><p>Palantir is not a young company that recently went public and is looking for capital to invest. Palantir has been in business since 2003 and has yet to make a profit. In fact, company insiders have taken advantage of the market&#39;s opportunity this year to sell a large number of Class A shares in 2021.This article, which is a must-read for any Palantir investor, delves deeper into the insider sales situation that has emerged this year.</p><p>In other words, insiders with equity stakes are cashing out by dumping shares on unsuspecting retail investors willing to pay 20 times sales for a loss-making company. That story has been told to me several times in my life.</p><p>Palantir is not only losing money this year, as I explained in my previous article. Throughout its existence, the big-data company has suffered losses and accumulated losses at an alarming rate. Palantir&#39;s losses in 2021 are &#34;only&#34; $364 million. The loss may be much lower than last year by the end of September, but it is still a loss.</p><p>And, in business valuation, profits/losses should be just as important as sales forecast, which, in most cases, is positive. The point that I believe was overlooked in my previous Palantir article is that the company has $5.3 billion in accumulated losses. Accounting rules require an accumulated deficit to appear on a company&#39;s balance sheet and is deducted from stockholders&#39; equity. It displays the total of a company&#39;s losses accumulated during its active period of operation. Palantir&#39;s accumulated deficits total $5.3 billion, compared to $7.6 billion in total paid-in capital. In layman&#39;s terms, Palantir has depleted 70% of its investor capital. That&#39;s a frightening figure.</p><p>Concerning the statement &#34;Palantir is investing in its growth and will recoup its investment later&#34;: Palantir has been stuck in this phase for nearly two decades, and the company is still not profitable. Shouldn&#39;t some of the money invested 10 or more years ago have already returned?</p><p>The magnitude of the company&#39;s accumulated deficit, as well as the incredibly long period of time, two decades, during which losses have accumulated, raise serious concerns about Palantir&#39;s capital allocation. How much credit would you or I qualify for if we went to a bank with a 20-year history of making business losses?</p><p><b>Moat</b></p><p>Questions have been raised about why I believe Palantir lacks a significant moat in its business, despite the fact that the company&#39;s clients include numerous government agencies. The implication here appears to be that Palantir&#39;s relationship network serves as a moat.</p><p>Palantir works with a number of cash-rich government agencies that use the company&#39;s technology platforms across the board. I don&#39;t deny that Palantir&#39;s platforms, or &#34;foundries,&#34; as the company refers to them, perform critical data management and analytics functions. Palantir was recently awarded contracts worth millions of dollars by the United States Army and the Space Systems Command. The Army contract is worth more than $800 million, while the Space Systems Command contract is worth $43 million.</p><p>That being said, I do not deny that Palantir has been successful in obtaining contract awards. What I mean is that Palantir must go through competitive processes in order to win bids. Contracts are not awarded based on Palantir&#39;s &#34;relationships&#34; with the government. To be honest, this would be illegal. As a result, the notion that the company&#39;s relationships aid Palantir in the construction of a moat is false.</p><p><b>Scalability</b></p><p>Some of the comments I received focused on Palantir&#39;s ability to capitalize on the big data revolution, as well as Palantir&#39;s scalability.</p><p>But where is this scalability, which is frequently mentioned as a reason to buy the stock?</p><p>Palantir has stated that it requires personnel to walk customers through the functionality of its foundries. Software that necessitates customer pilots is both time consuming and costly in terms of human resources. That is the inverse of &#34;scale.&#34;<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64df144337f177af7f37125517af8d56\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"143\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>The ability to have decreasing marginal costs is a key feature of scalability. With a large enough customer base, marginal costs can be reduced to zero. This is not the case for Palantir, which must be available to clients to teach them the intricacies of the deployed platforms or walk them through new functionalities. Palantir, in my opinion, is more akin to an IT consulting firm that also sells software products. But I don&#39;t see real scalability with Palantir.</p><p><b>Risks</b></p><p>Palantir is not a profitable company. Palantir is heavily diluted. Insiders at Palantir are selling. Even with 30% annual revenue growth, Palantir&#39;s stock remains wildly overpriced.</p><p>High-multiple stocks, particularly in the technology sector, have recently begun to consolidate, and more downside is on the way as investors become less willing to pay top dollar for businesses that have flown high but failed to meet high expectations.</p><p>Palantir&#39;s valuation is a huge issue, and despite the fact that the big-data company operates in a sexy industry with a lot of hype, the business fundamentals simply do not justify Palantir&#39;s market price.</p><p><b>My Conclusion</b></p><p>I&#39;m not saying Palantir doesn&#39;t have significant annual sales growth. I&#39;m not saying Palantir&#39;s products are useless to the government. What I am saying is that Palantir&#39;s loss-making business does not merit a sales multiple of 20. Even if it was profitable, it wouldn&#39;t deserve this kind of sales multiple.</p><p>That&#39;s why I&#39;m sticking to my $5 price target for Palantir. A $5 price target implies a $10 billion market valuation and a sales multiple of 5, which is still more than generous. Due to the persistence of business losses, an earnings multiple is unfortunately inapplicable here. I believe that the majority of the feedback was well-intentioned, but the bull case still has some serious flaws.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: A Defense Of My $5 Price Target</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: A Defense Of My $5 Price Target\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-14 10:28 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4479466-palantir-a-defense-of-my-5-price-target><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryI respond to reader feedback on my most recent Palantir article.Reader feedback is divided into four categories: valuation, company losses, moat, and scalability.I stand by my assertion that ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4479466-palantir-a-defense-of-my-5-price-target\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4479466-palantir-a-defense-of-my-5-price-target","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189278661","content_text":"SummaryI respond to reader feedback on my most recent Palantir article.Reader feedback is divided into four categories: valuation, company losses, moat, and scalability.I stand by my assertion that Palantir is highly overvalued.My previous article on the big-data company Palantir (PLTR)created quite a stir. With over 700 comments and a significant amount of (negative) feedback, I believe it is appropriate to share my thoughts on some of the most important questions I have received in this article. In terms of disclosure, I do not have a short position in Palantir and do not intend to open one. I simply believe that the company's stock is difficult, if not impossible, to justify based on the company's financials.My $5 Price Target For PalantirIn my previous article, \"Palantir: Fair Value Of $5,\" I claimed that the big-data company was fundamentally and unjustifiably overvalued. My reasoning was that a company that has been in business for as long as Palantir should have much better financials in place that look significantly better than what we see in the 10Q quarterly reports.My main concern was Palantir's valuation, which requires buyers to pay a sales multiple of twenty. A P/E ratio of 20 would be considered high in normal and more sober times. Even allowing for Palantir's annual growth rate of 30%+, paying 20 times (expected) sales is still a bit of a stretch and requires a lot of faith that the sales growth will actually materialize. Even if it does, Palantir's valuation appears indefensible.I'd like to take this opportunity to address some of the feedback I received regarding the four areas where I received the most questions (valuation, company losses, moat and scalability).ValuationMany readers strongly disagreed with my assessment. The most common question I received centered on the idea that Palantir achieves significant revenue growth and that, as a result of this rapid growth, Palantir deserves a market capitalization of at least $10 billion.This argument ignores the fact that, for valuation purposes, the size of the revenue base is just as important as the rate of sales growth. I also don't deny that Palantir's revenue is rapidly increasing. According to the company's long-term sales forecast, the company is aiming for a 30% annual growth rate. Palantir's outlook was confirmed in the company's most recent quarterly earnings report, and the company expects 40% growth this year.Palantir is rapidly expanding, but the revenue base must be considered alongside the sales growth rate for any sense to be made. If I run a business with $1 million in annual sales and double my sales every year, that doesn't mean the company \"should be worth $10 billion.\" This conclusion cannot be reached without taking into account the dollar revenue base. While Palantir's revenue growth rate of 30% should not be overlooked, it is not 100%.Palantir has a market capitalization of $34 billion, and the market expects revenue of $1.53 billion in 2021 and $1.99 billion in 2022. Here, the implied sales multiples are 22 (2021e) and 17 (2022e). Palantir's growth multiples are excessive and are at risk of further contraction. Paying around 20 times sales for a business, even if it is perfect, is more than a stretch; it may be a suicide mission.IPO And LossesIn response to my previous article, I received a lot of feedback along the lines of \"Palantir is investing money, and this money will come back later in terms of free cash flow,\" or \"Palantir just had its IPO, and profits are not expected.\"Both arguments, in my opinion, are flawed.Palantir is not a young company that recently went public and is looking for capital to invest. Palantir has been in business since 2003 and has yet to make a profit. In fact, company insiders have taken advantage of the market's opportunity this year to sell a large number of Class A shares in 2021.This article, which is a must-read for any Palantir investor, delves deeper into the insider sales situation that has emerged this year.In other words, insiders with equity stakes are cashing out by dumping shares on unsuspecting retail investors willing to pay 20 times sales for a loss-making company. That story has been told to me several times in my life.Palantir is not only losing money this year, as I explained in my previous article. Throughout its existence, the big-data company has suffered losses and accumulated losses at an alarming rate. Palantir's losses in 2021 are \"only\" $364 million. The loss may be much lower than last year by the end of September, but it is still a loss.And, in business valuation, profits/losses should be just as important as sales forecast, which, in most cases, is positive. The point that I believe was overlooked in my previous Palantir article is that the company has $5.3 billion in accumulated losses. Accounting rules require an accumulated deficit to appear on a company's balance sheet and is deducted from stockholders' equity. It displays the total of a company's losses accumulated during its active period of operation. Palantir's accumulated deficits total $5.3 billion, compared to $7.6 billion in total paid-in capital. In layman's terms, Palantir has depleted 70% of its investor capital. That's a frightening figure.Concerning the statement \"Palantir is investing in its growth and will recoup its investment later\": Palantir has been stuck in this phase for nearly two decades, and the company is still not profitable. Shouldn't some of the money invested 10 or more years ago have already returned?The magnitude of the company's accumulated deficit, as well as the incredibly long period of time, two decades, during which losses have accumulated, raise serious concerns about Palantir's capital allocation. How much credit would you or I qualify for if we went to a bank with a 20-year history of making business losses?MoatQuestions have been raised about why I believe Palantir lacks a significant moat in its business, despite the fact that the company's clients include numerous government agencies. The implication here appears to be that Palantir's relationship network serves as a moat.Palantir works with a number of cash-rich government agencies that use the company's technology platforms across the board. I don't deny that Palantir's platforms, or \"foundries,\" as the company refers to them, perform critical data management and analytics functions. Palantir was recently awarded contracts worth millions of dollars by the United States Army and the Space Systems Command. The Army contract is worth more than $800 million, while the Space Systems Command contract is worth $43 million.That being said, I do not deny that Palantir has been successful in obtaining contract awards. What I mean is that Palantir must go through competitive processes in order to win bids. Contracts are not awarded based on Palantir's \"relationships\" with the government. To be honest, this would be illegal. As a result, the notion that the company's relationships aid Palantir in the construction of a moat is false.ScalabilitySome of the comments I received focused on Palantir's ability to capitalize on the big data revolution, as well as Palantir's scalability.But where is this scalability, which is frequently mentioned as a reason to buy the stock?Palantir has stated that it requires personnel to walk customers through the functionality of its foundries. Software that necessitates customer pilots is both time consuming and costly in terms of human resources. That is the inverse of \"scale.\"The ability to have decreasing marginal costs is a key feature of scalability. With a large enough customer base, marginal costs can be reduced to zero. This is not the case for Palantir, which must be available to clients to teach them the intricacies of the deployed platforms or walk them through new functionalities. Palantir, in my opinion, is more akin to an IT consulting firm that also sells software products. But I don't see real scalability with Palantir.RisksPalantir is not a profitable company. Palantir is heavily diluted. Insiders at Palantir are selling. Even with 30% annual revenue growth, Palantir's stock remains wildly overpriced.High-multiple stocks, particularly in the technology sector, have recently begun to consolidate, and more downside is on the way as investors become less willing to pay top dollar for businesses that have flown high but failed to meet high expectations.Palantir's valuation is a huge issue, and despite the fact that the big-data company operates in a sexy industry with a lot of hype, the business fundamentals simply do not justify Palantir's market price.My ConclusionI'm not saying Palantir doesn't have significant annual sales growth. I'm not saying Palantir's products are useless to the government. What I am saying is that Palantir's loss-making business does not merit a sales multiple of 20. Even if it was profitable, it wouldn't deserve this kind of sales multiple.That's why I'm sticking to my $5 price target for Palantir. A $5 price target implies a $10 billion market valuation and a sales multiple of 5, which is still more than generous. Due to the persistence of business losses, an earnings multiple is unfortunately inapplicable here. I believe that the majority of the feedback was well-intentioned, but the bull case still has some serious flaws.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":144,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}