Historically, the S&P 500 (a common proxy for "the market") has delivered positive annual total returns (including dividends) in approximately 73-75% of calendar years since 1928 (around 72 out of ~98 years, depending on exact data sources up to 2025). This long-term probability reflects periods of strong growth, recessions, wars, and bubbles, with negative years often clustered around economic downturns.For 2026 specifically, as of early January 2026, Wall Street consensus is overwhelmingly bullish. Major firms' year-end S&P 500 targets range from ~7,100 (Bank of America, implying ~4% gain) to 8,000+ (e.g., Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan upside case), with averages around 7,500-7,900 (implying 6-15% gains from late-2025 levels near ~6,900). Not a single major strategist surveyed by Bloom
Main Effects of a Bank of Japan (BOJ) Rate Hike on US MarketsThe Bank of Japan is widely expected to raise its policy rate from 0.5% to 0.75% at its December 18-19, 2025 meeting, marking the highest level in about 30 years. This continues its gradual normalization from ultra-low (and previously negative) rates. While Japan's rates remain low compared to the US (where the Federal Reserve's rate is around 4-5%), even small hikes can influence global markets through interconnected channels.1. Yen Carry Trade Unwinding (The Primary Channel)The most significant impact comes from the yen carry trade, a strategy where investors borrow in low-yielding yen and invest in higher-yielding assets elsewhere, often US stocks, bonds, or tech-heavy equities.How it works — Low Japanese rates make borrowing
Strategies for Palantir Technologies (PLTR) to Enhance Shareholder ValuePalantir Technologies, with its AI-driven platforms like Foundry, Gotham, and the Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP), is already a leader in data orchestration and decision-making software, serving government and commercial clients. As of November 2025, the company boasts a market cap exceeding $400 billion, driven by explosive growth—Q3 revenue surged 63% YoY to over $1.18 billion, U.S. commercial revenue jumped 121% YoY, and total contract value (TCV) bookings rose 151%—while maintaining profitability (Rule of 40 score at 114%) and a debt-free balance sheet with nearly $5 billion in cash. However, its premium valuation (forward P/E ~190–200x, P/S >100x) demands sustained execution to justify expectations of a