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- RagnaRagna
  ·2021-06-16
  Nio let's go
  NIO: Buy This Chinese EV Manufacturer While It's Still Cheap
  NIO is a dominant EV manufacturer in the electric SUV segment in China.Despite competing in the luxurious SUV segment, its cars are more affordable in comparison to the cars of its peers such as Tesla.As the Chinese EV market will continue to aggressively expand in the upcoming years, we believe that NIO has all the chances to create additional shareholder value in the future.Founded in 2014, NIO is an electric vehicle manufacturer that's headquartered in Shanghai, China. The company mostly spec
  NIO: Buy This Chinese EV Manufacturer While It's Still Cheap
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- RagnaRagna
  ·2021-06-13
  Nice
  Don’t be fooled — inflation is a big risk for stock market investors. Here’s how to prepare
  Michael Brush advises on how you can avoid making mistakes as bond yields rise and the central bank
  Don’t be fooled — inflation is a big risk for stock market investors. Here’s how to prepare
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let's go","listText":"Nio let's go","text":"Nio let's go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/169245601","repostId":"1146386859","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1146386859","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623417074,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1146386859?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-11 21:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO: Buy This Chinese EV Manufacturer While It's Still Cheap","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146386859","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO is a dominant EV manufacturer in the electric SUV segment in China.Despite competing in the luxurious SUV segment, its cars are more affordable in comparison to the cars of its peers such as Tesla.As the Chinese EV market will continue to aggressively expand in the upcoming years, we believe that NIO has all the chances to create additional shareholder value in the future.Founded in 2014, NIO is an electric vehicle manufacturer that's headquartered in Shanghai, China. The company mostly spec","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>NIO is a dominant EV manufacturer in the electric SUV segment in China.</li>\n <li>Despite competing in the luxurious SUV segment, its cars are more affordable in comparison to the cars of its peers such as Tesla.</li>\n <li>As the Chinese EV market will continue to aggressively expand in the upcoming years, we believe that NIO has all the chances to create additional shareholder value in the future.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>NIO(NYSE:NIO)is a dominant EV manufacturer in the electric SUV segment in China. It has been constantly increasing its deliveries every quarter, its revenues have been growing at a triple-digit rate in recent years, and despite competing in the luxurious SUV segment, its cars are more affordable in comparison to the cars of its peers such as Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA). While NIO's stock has depreciated last month, there's every reason to believe that its growth story is far from over, as the Chinese EV market will continue to aggressively expand in the upcoming years and the penetration of electric vehicles on its roads is only going to increase. Considering this, the company has all the chances to create additional shareholder value in the long run.</p>\n<p><b>Dominating the Chinese Market</b></p>\n<p>Founded in 2014, NIO is an electric vehicle manufacturer that's headquartered in Shanghai, China. The company mostly specializes in the development of luxurious electric SUVs and just likeXPeng(XPEV), it manufactures and sells its cars online and through its showrooms across China. In addition, NIO also offers various energy-related solutions such as home charging stations, mobile charging services, and others to its customers.</p>\n<p>In recent years, the company has been aggressively growing, as the deliveries of its cars have been steadily increasing quarter after quarter, which led to the appreciation of its stock. However, due to the overall market selloff last month, NIO's stock along with stocks of other EV manufacturers such as XPeng, Tesla, and Li Auto (LI) evaporated most of its YTD gains and are currently underperforming the S&amp;P 500 Index.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23b2ed509a529a876c423f3e9426be3f\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>Chart: Seeking Alpha</i></p>\n<p>Despite this, there's every reason to believe that NIO's stock will recover, as the company's successful performance in Q1 shows that its growth story is far from over. InQ1alone NIO beat the Street expectations by $160 million and generated $1.22 billion in revenues, which represents an increase of 481.8% Y/Y. In addition, the company's gross profit was $237.3 million, while its vehicle margin was 21.2% against -7.4% a year ago. During the period, NIO has also improved its bottom-line performance, as its net loss was only $68.8 million, and despite the chip shortages and the Chinese New Year its deliveries have also increased by 422.7% Y/Y and by 15.6% Q/Q to 20,060.</p>\n<p>One of the best things about NIO is that it already has a dominant position in the Chinese EV industry and it also has a solid balance sheet, as its cash reserves at the end of Q1stoodat $7.2 billion, while it had only $1.59 billion in long-term debt. As a result, it can easily reinvest its resources back into the business to drive growth and establish an even stronger foothold in its home market without worrying too much about the current losses.</p>\n<p>On top of that, while some might say that by trading at a price-to-salesratioof ~13x NIO is overvalued, the reality is that its momentum is not slowing down and there's every reason to believe that the growth story is far from over. Considering that even at the market cap of ~$70 billion NIO still trades below the Streetconsensusprice of $59.24 per share, it's safe to assume that the upside is still there, especially since the current forecasts suggest that the company will increase its revenues from $2.49 billion in FY20 to $8.81 billion in FY22.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71905e5a90565b6a7e8864b3f6b0c226\" tg-width=\"883\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>Source: Seeking Alpha</i></p>\n<p>At this stage, the major competitor of NIO's flagship SUVES8is Tesla's Model X. However, there are several reasons to believe that the ES8 is a more attractive car in comparison to the Model X, and as a result, NIO has all the opportunities to outsell its competitor in China in the long run. First of all, the ES8 has more legroom and headroom than the Model X, it also has a luxurious interior, and it comes with three different battery packages that could last from 415 kilometers to 580 kilometers on a single charge.</p>\n<p>All of the ES8 SUVs include a proprietary operating system, have advanced navigation software, and most importantly cost ~$70,000 per vehicle in China, which is below the cost of Tesla's Model X, which comes at a price tag of ~$110,000 per vehicle in the region. We believe that this pricing advantage will undoubtedly help NIO to outsell Tesla in the SUV segment, especially since its cars now could bepurchasedat a discount thanks to the new Chinese subsidy program.</p>\n<p>Another uniqueness of NIO is its battery as a service business model, which allows its customers to swap their batteries in various swapping stations around China if they don't want to charge their cars or are in a hurry. After recently deploying the second version of its Power Swap stations, the swapping of batteries is now done in under three minutes, which is the same as refueling a traditional ICE car, and a single station now could perform up to 312 battery swaps in a single day. NIO now has a network of charging stations across all of China and if the solid-state batteries won't be available by the end of the decade at scale, then the idea of swapping batteries on the go will remain a viable business model in the long run.</p>\n<p>Going forward, NIO plans to accelerate its deliveries this month in order to meet its Q2 goal of delivering 21,000 to 22,000 vehicles, which represents a growth of 103% Y/Y to 113% Y/Y and plans to generate $1.24 to $1.29 billion in revenues during the period. Despite the semiconductor shortages, NIO already managed to increase its deliveries in April and May to 7,102 vehicles and 6,711 vehicles, respectively, which represents a growth of 125% Y/Y and 95.3% Y/Y, respectively. On top of that, NIO is also on track to deliver 90,000 to 100,000 vehicles this year.</p>\n<p>Considering this, there's every reason to believe that NIO will continue to be a dominant player in the Chinese EV market and a leader of the luxury EV segment in the region. While the company doesn't have an infrastructure outside China, we don't think that's a downside at all since China is the biggest EV market in the world that's constantly growing and NIO has better chances of creating shareholder value there than abroad. For that reason, we believe that NIO's growth story is far from over and it's likely that as long as its deliveries increase with every quarter, its stock will be rising in value in the long run.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO: Buy This Chinese EV Manufacturer While It's Still Cheap</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO: Buy This Chinese EV Manufacturer While It's Still Cheap\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-11 21:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434085-nio-buy-this-chinese-ev-manufacturer-while-its-still-cheap><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nNIO is a dominant EV manufacturer in the electric SUV segment in China.\nDespite competing in the luxurious SUV segment, its cars are more affordable in comparison to the cars of its peers ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434085-nio-buy-this-chinese-ev-manufacturer-while-its-still-cheap\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434085-nio-buy-this-chinese-ev-manufacturer-while-its-still-cheap","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1146386859","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO is a dominant EV manufacturer in the electric SUV segment in China.\nDespite competing in the luxurious SUV segment, its cars are more affordable in comparison to the cars of its peers such as Tesla.\nAs the Chinese EV market will continue to aggressively expand in the upcoming years, we believe that NIO has all the chances to create additional shareholder value in the future.\n\nNIO(NYSE:NIO)is a dominant EV manufacturer in the electric SUV segment in China. It has been constantly increasing its deliveries every quarter, its revenues have been growing at a triple-digit rate in recent years, and despite competing in the luxurious SUV segment, its cars are more affordable in comparison to the cars of its peers such as Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA). While NIO's stock has depreciated last month, there's every reason to believe that its growth story is far from over, as the Chinese EV market will continue to aggressively expand in the upcoming years and the penetration of electric vehicles on its roads is only going to increase. Considering this, the company has all the chances to create additional shareholder value in the long run.\nDominating the Chinese Market\nFounded in 2014, NIO is an electric vehicle manufacturer that's headquartered in Shanghai, China. The company mostly specializes in the development of luxurious electric SUVs and just likeXPeng(XPEV), it manufactures and sells its cars online and through its showrooms across China. In addition, NIO also offers various energy-related solutions such as home charging stations, mobile charging services, and others to its customers.\nIn recent years, the company has been aggressively growing, as the deliveries of its cars have been steadily increasing quarter after quarter, which led to the appreciation of its stock. However, due to the overall market selloff last month, NIO's stock along with stocks of other EV manufacturers such as XPeng, Tesla, and Li Auto (LI) evaporated most of its YTD gains and are currently underperforming the S&P 500 Index.\n\nChart: Seeking Alpha\nDespite this, there's every reason to believe that NIO's stock will recover, as the company's successful performance in Q1 shows that its growth story is far from over. InQ1alone NIO beat the Street expectations by $160 million and generated $1.22 billion in revenues, which represents an increase of 481.8% Y/Y. In addition, the company's gross profit was $237.3 million, while its vehicle margin was 21.2% against -7.4% a year ago. During the period, NIO has also improved its bottom-line performance, as its net loss was only $68.8 million, and despite the chip shortages and the Chinese New Year its deliveries have also increased by 422.7% Y/Y and by 15.6% Q/Q to 20,060.\nOne of the best things about NIO is that it already has a dominant position in the Chinese EV industry and it also has a solid balance sheet, as its cash reserves at the end of Q1stoodat $7.2 billion, while it had only $1.59 billion in long-term debt. As a result, it can easily reinvest its resources back into the business to drive growth and establish an even stronger foothold in its home market without worrying too much about the current losses.\nOn top of that, while some might say that by trading at a price-to-salesratioof ~13x NIO is overvalued, the reality is that its momentum is not slowing down and there's every reason to believe that the growth story is far from over. Considering that even at the market cap of ~$70 billion NIO still trades below the Streetconsensusprice of $59.24 per share, it's safe to assume that the upside is still there, especially since the current forecasts suggest that the company will increase its revenues from $2.49 billion in FY20 to $8.81 billion in FY22.\n\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nAt this stage, the major competitor of NIO's flagship SUVES8is Tesla's Model X. However, there are several reasons to believe that the ES8 is a more attractive car in comparison to the Model X, and as a result, NIO has all the opportunities to outsell its competitor in China in the long run. First of all, the ES8 has more legroom and headroom than the Model X, it also has a luxurious interior, and it comes with three different battery packages that could last from 415 kilometers to 580 kilometers on a single charge.\nAll of the ES8 SUVs include a proprietary operating system, have advanced navigation software, and most importantly cost ~$70,000 per vehicle in China, which is below the cost of Tesla's Model X, which comes at a price tag of ~$110,000 per vehicle in the region. We believe that this pricing advantage will undoubtedly help NIO to outsell Tesla in the SUV segment, especially since its cars now could bepurchasedat a discount thanks to the new Chinese subsidy program.\nAnother uniqueness of NIO is its battery as a service business model, which allows its customers to swap their batteries in various swapping stations around China if they don't want to charge their cars or are in a hurry. After recently deploying the second version of its Power Swap stations, the swapping of batteries is now done in under three minutes, which is the same as refueling a traditional ICE car, and a single station now could perform up to 312 battery swaps in a single day. NIO now has a network of charging stations across all of China and if the solid-state batteries won't be available by the end of the decade at scale, then the idea of swapping batteries on the go will remain a viable business model in the long run.\nGoing forward, NIO plans to accelerate its deliveries this month in order to meet its Q2 goal of delivering 21,000 to 22,000 vehicles, which represents a growth of 103% Y/Y to 113% Y/Y and plans to generate $1.24 to $1.29 billion in revenues during the period. Despite the semiconductor shortages, NIO already managed to increase its deliveries in April and May to 7,102 vehicles and 6,711 vehicles, respectively, which represents a growth of 125% Y/Y and 95.3% Y/Y, respectively. On top of that, NIO is also on track to deliver 90,000 to 100,000 vehicles this year.\nConsidering this, there's every reason to believe that NIO will continue to be a dominant player in the Chinese EV market and a leader of the luxury EV segment in the region. While the company doesn't have an infrastructure outside China, we don't think that's a downside at all since China is the biggest EV market in the world that's constantly growing and NIO has better chances of creating shareholder value there than abroad. For that reason, we believe that NIO's growth story is far from over and it's likely that as long as its deliveries increase with every quarter, its stock will be rising in value in the long run.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":318,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182247784,"gmtCreate":1623583198448,"gmtModify":1704206596890,"author":{"id":"3577187124515993","authorId":"3577187124515993","name":"Ragna","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577187124515993","authorIdStr":"3577187124515993"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182247784","repostId":"1118102755","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1118102755","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623469189,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1118102755?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-12 11:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Don’t be fooled — inflation is a big risk for stock market investors. Here’s how to prepare","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118102755","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Michael Brush advises on how you can avoid making mistakes as bond yields rise and the central bank ","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>Michael Brush advises on how you can avoid making mistakes as bond yields rise and the central bank reduces its stimulus.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Don’t be fooled by the placid response to the highest inflation rate in over a decade. Inflation will remain elevated enough to shake up the stock market, possibly causing a selloff as much as 15%. You need to prepare now.</p>\n<p>The reason: Persistently high inflation will move the 10-year Treasury yield to 2% and get the Federal Reserve to start tapering its stimulus by the end of the year. Both will rattle the stock market.</p>\n<p>The government said June 10 that the cost of living surged in May and drove the pace of inflation to a 13-year high of 5%.</p>\n<p>What should you do? Probably the opposite of what you are thinking. Before we get to that, here is a look at the two key events for stocks — in the bond market and at the Fed — between today and the end of the year.</p>\n<p><b>Rising yields</b></p>\n<p>Remember how the stock market freaked out earlier this year when the 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y,1.452%&nbsp;moved up to around 1.7%? Well, expect a repeat. Only worse.</p>\n<p>“We suspect that inflation in the U.S. will prove more persistent than investors currently appear to anticipate,” says Capital Economics economist Franziska Palmas, citing the tight labor market and wage growth. Her research group puts the 10-year yield at 2.25% by the end of this year, and 2.5% by the end of 2022.</p>\n<p>That’ll be a big move from the current level of 1.5%. Stock investors tend to panic when interest rates rise a lot.</p>\n<p><b>Fed tapering</b></p>\n<p>Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has downplayed the need for tapering the central bank’s bond purchases to keep yields low. But half of the 12 members of the Federal Open Market Committee&nbsp;(FOMC) have recently said they’re ready to start talking about tapering. The FOMC is the Fed branch that sets monetary policy.</p>\n<p>“It will be increasingly hard for Powell to claim the economy needs to make ‘substantial further progress’ toward achieving maximum employment before the Fed starts talking about talking about tapering,” says Ed Yardeni, author of Predicting the Markets and head of Yardeni Research. Powell has repeatedly said the Fed is awaiting “substantial further progress” in the economy before terminating its stimulus.</p>\n<p>“Given the performance of the economy, it is reasonable to expect they will start to taper before end of year, and a few months later they will start to raise the federal funds rate,” predicts Yardeni.</p>\n<p>He thinks the Fed will announce a decision to start tapering in its July meeting. Tapering refers to a reduction in bond purchases by the Fed. This tightens the money supply to put the brakes on growth. Once purchases go to zero, the Fed moves on to cutting rates.</p>\n<p>As we know, tapering causes a “taper tantrum” in the stock market, meaning a sharp selloff in indices like the S&amp;P 500 SPX,+0.19%,&nbsp;the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA,+0.04%&nbsp;and Nasdaq COMP,+0.35%.</p>\n<p><b>How to prepare</b></p>\n<p>When considering how to position for the probable selloff caused by rising bond yields and Fed tightening, the key things to remember is why these things are happening in the first place, and what history tells us about how stocks behave.</p>\n<p>The consensus view is that tapering and rising bond yields kill off economic growth and the bull market in stocks. But this isn’t actually true.</p>\n<p>Yes, initially, tightening can make stocks fall — or churn sideways, at best. But then stocks shake it off and move higher as the bull market continues. This makes sense, because the tightening is happening for good reasons that help companies — strong economic growth. This pushes earnings a lot higher, which resets valuations lower — back down to levels investors feel comfortable with.</p>\n<p>“Tapering is part and parcel of a recovery,” says Leuthold market strategist Jim Paulsen. “It is a response to successful policy and a rebound in the economy. It is a natural part of the bull market that allows the market to go higher. It’s a healthy development.”</p>\n<p>Looking through all the market fireworks that may lie ahead, Paulsen thinks underlying economic growth will push S&amp;P 500 earnings up to $220 by the end of the year. Assuming the S&amp;P 500 is at current levels or a little bit lower, that would bring the index’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio down to 18-19 — which is near or below the average since 1990. “That sets up the next leg of the bull market,” he says.</p>\n<p><b>Your five-point game plan</b></p>\n<p><b>1. Do not go to “defensives”</b></p>\n<p>When people see stock market turbulence, the knee-jerk reaction is to go for the “stability” of defensive names like utilities and consumer staples. But that would be a mistake. You want to go to defensives when the economy is slowing or contracting, not when it is strong. Another problem is that defensive names pay yield. So, like bonds, they get hit by rising interest rates, which devalue dividends — and dividend-paying stocks and bonds.</p>\n<p>“The best way to protect yourself is to tie your portfolio to the overheated economy. That is where the best profit growth and profit leverage is,” says Paulsen. “You do not get that with defensives.”</p>\n<p><b>2. Go with companies that benefit from growth</b></p>\n<p>Since rapid economic growth is causing the tapering — and the growth is usually not killed off by tightening — stocks linked to growth typically are the best place to be. This means cyclicals like industrials, basic materials consumer names, small-caps and international stocks. “Slower growth consumer staples and utilities won’t keep up with growth areas of the market,” says Paulsen.</p>\n<p>I first suggested Lindblad Expeditions LIND,+0.17%&nbsp;and Cardlytics CDLX,+4.54%&nbsp;and in my stock letter, Brush Up on Stocks (the link to my site is in the bio, below) in September 2020 and November 2019. I still like and own both even though they are up 48% and 157% — or two to four times the S&amp;P 500. Recent insider buying confirms they are buys and holds around current levels. Plus, both are cyclical names. Cardlytics helps credit card companies understand customer buying patterns for marketing purposes. Lindblad offers specialized cruise adventures to exotic locales. Both benefit from economic growth that powers more consumer spending.</p>\n<p><b>3. Do not get out of stocks</b></p>\n<p>If you think a selloff is coming, it might be tempting to try to get out of stocks right before that, to buy back after the weakness happens. But this is a lot harder than you think. In fact, it is almost impossible to get the timing right, say market veterans.</p>\n<p>“You have to make two smart decisions,” says Yardeni. “You have to get out just before the correction and then you have to decide when to get back in. I don’t know of too many people that can do that consistently.”</p>\n<p>Market timers often get out and don’t get back in, and they miss the next leg up. “You can get yourself into trouble trying to avoid the correction,” says Paulsen.</p>\n<p><b>4. Do not own bonds</b></p>\n<p>Bond yields will be 2% or higher by the end of year. So don’t own bonds, whose prices fall when yields rise — unless you simply plan to hold to maturity to collect the income.</p>\n<p><b>5. Go with financials</b></p>\n<p>Strong economies typically make the yield curve more upward sloping, meaning that long-term interest rates on 10-year Treasuries rise a lot faster than short-term interest rates. Since banks borrow at the short end and lend at the long end, steepening yield curves help them.</p>\n<p>The strong economy will also help banks release reserves and lower provisions for loan losses, both of which can boost earnings, points out Yardeni. Both JPMorgan Chase JPM,-0.07%&nbsp;and Bank of America BAC,+0.41%&nbsp;are up over twice as much as the S&amp;P 500 since I suggested them in my stock letter last August. But they still look attractive. Recent pattern buying by smart insiders among smaller banks confirms the sector is still one to own, despite the strength over the past few quarters.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Don’t be fooled — inflation is a big risk for stock market investors. Here’s how to prepare </title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDon’t be fooled — inflation is a big risk for stock market investors. Here’s how to prepare \n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-12 11:39 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont-be-fooled-inflation-is-a-big-risk-for-stock-market-investors-heres-how-to-prepare-11623421036?siteid=yhoof2><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Michael Brush advises on how you can avoid making mistakes as bond yields rise and the central bank reduces its stimulus.\n\nDon’t be fooled by the placid response to the highest inflation rate in over ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont-be-fooled-inflation-is-a-big-risk-for-stock-market-investors-heres-how-to-prepare-11623421036?siteid=yhoof2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont-be-fooled-inflation-is-a-big-risk-for-stock-market-investors-heres-how-to-prepare-11623421036?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118102755","content_text":"Michael Brush advises on how you can avoid making mistakes as bond yields rise and the central bank reduces its stimulus.\n\nDon’t be fooled by the placid response to the highest inflation rate in over a decade. Inflation will remain elevated enough to shake up the stock market, possibly causing a selloff as much as 15%. You need to prepare now.\nThe reason: Persistently high inflation will move the 10-year Treasury yield to 2% and get the Federal Reserve to start tapering its stimulus by the end of the year. Both will rattle the stock market.\nThe government said June 10 that the cost of living surged in May and drove the pace of inflation to a 13-year high of 5%.\nWhat should you do? Probably the opposite of what you are thinking. Before we get to that, here is a look at the two key events for stocks — in the bond market and at the Fed — between today and the end of the year.\nRising yields\nRemember how the stock market freaked out earlier this year when the 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y,1.452% moved up to around 1.7%? Well, expect a repeat. Only worse.\n“We suspect that inflation in the U.S. will prove more persistent than investors currently appear to anticipate,” says Capital Economics economist Franziska Palmas, citing the tight labor market and wage growth. Her research group puts the 10-year yield at 2.25% by the end of this year, and 2.5% by the end of 2022.\nThat’ll be a big move from the current level of 1.5%. Stock investors tend to panic when interest rates rise a lot.\nFed tapering\nFed Chairman Jerome Powell has downplayed the need for tapering the central bank’s bond purchases to keep yields low. But half of the 12 members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have recently said they’re ready to start talking about tapering. The FOMC is the Fed branch that sets monetary policy.\n“It will be increasingly hard for Powell to claim the economy needs to make ‘substantial further progress’ toward achieving maximum employment before the Fed starts talking about talking about tapering,” says Ed Yardeni, author of Predicting the Markets and head of Yardeni Research. Powell has repeatedly said the Fed is awaiting “substantial further progress” in the economy before terminating its stimulus.\n“Given the performance of the economy, it is reasonable to expect they will start to taper before end of year, and a few months later they will start to raise the federal funds rate,” predicts Yardeni.\nHe thinks the Fed will announce a decision to start tapering in its July meeting. Tapering refers to a reduction in bond purchases by the Fed. This tightens the money supply to put the brakes on growth. Once purchases go to zero, the Fed moves on to cutting rates.\nAs we know, tapering causes a “taper tantrum” in the stock market, meaning a sharp selloff in indices like the S&P 500 SPX,+0.19%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA,+0.04% and Nasdaq COMP,+0.35%.\nHow to prepare\nWhen considering how to position for the probable selloff caused by rising bond yields and Fed tightening, the key things to remember is why these things are happening in the first place, and what history tells us about how stocks behave.\nThe consensus view is that tapering and rising bond yields kill off economic growth and the bull market in stocks. But this isn’t actually true.\nYes, initially, tightening can make stocks fall — or churn sideways, at best. But then stocks shake it off and move higher as the bull market continues. This makes sense, because the tightening is happening for good reasons that help companies — strong economic growth. This pushes earnings a lot higher, which resets valuations lower — back down to levels investors feel comfortable with.\n“Tapering is part and parcel of a recovery,” says Leuthold market strategist Jim Paulsen. “It is a response to successful policy and a rebound in the economy. It is a natural part of the bull market that allows the market to go higher. It’s a healthy development.”\nLooking through all the market fireworks that may lie ahead, Paulsen thinks underlying economic growth will push S&P 500 earnings up to $220 by the end of the year. Assuming the S&P 500 is at current levels or a little bit lower, that would bring the index’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio down to 18-19 — which is near or below the average since 1990. “That sets up the next leg of the bull market,” he says.\nYour five-point game plan\n1. Do not go to “defensives”\nWhen people see stock market turbulence, the knee-jerk reaction is to go for the “stability” of defensive names like utilities and consumer staples. But that would be a mistake. You want to go to defensives when the economy is slowing or contracting, not when it is strong. Another problem is that defensive names pay yield. So, like bonds, they get hit by rising interest rates, which devalue dividends — and dividend-paying stocks and bonds.\n“The best way to protect yourself is to tie your portfolio to the overheated economy. That is where the best profit growth and profit leverage is,” says Paulsen. “You do not get that with defensives.”\n2. Go with companies that benefit from growth\nSince rapid economic growth is causing the tapering — and the growth is usually not killed off by tightening — stocks linked to growth typically are the best place to be. This means cyclicals like industrials, basic materials consumer names, small-caps and international stocks. “Slower growth consumer staples and utilities won’t keep up with growth areas of the market,” says Paulsen.\nI first suggested Lindblad Expeditions LIND,+0.17% and Cardlytics CDLX,+4.54% and in my stock letter, Brush Up on Stocks (the link to my site is in the bio, below) in September 2020 and November 2019. I still like and own both even though they are up 48% and 157% — or two to four times the S&P 500. Recent insider buying confirms they are buys and holds around current levels. Plus, both are cyclical names. Cardlytics helps credit card companies understand customer buying patterns for marketing purposes. Lindblad offers specialized cruise adventures to exotic locales. Both benefit from economic growth that powers more consumer spending.\n3. Do not get out of stocks\nIf you think a selloff is coming, it might be tempting to try to get out of stocks right before that, to buy back after the weakness happens. But this is a lot harder than you think. In fact, it is almost impossible to get the timing right, say market veterans.\n“You have to make two smart decisions,” says Yardeni. “You have to get out just before the correction and then you have to decide when to get back in. I don’t know of too many people that can do that consistently.”\nMarket timers often get out and don’t get back in, and they miss the next leg up. “You can get yourself into trouble trying to avoid the correction,” says Paulsen.\n4. Do not own bonds\nBond yields will be 2% or higher by the end of year. So don’t own bonds, whose prices fall when yields rise — unless you simply plan to hold to maturity to collect the income.\n5. Go with financials\nStrong economies typically make the yield curve more upward sloping, meaning that long-term interest rates on 10-year Treasuries rise a lot faster than short-term interest rates. Since banks borrow at the short end and lend at the long end, steepening yield curves help them.\nThe strong economy will also help banks release reserves and lower provisions for loan losses, both of which can boost earnings, points out Yardeni. Both JPMorgan Chase JPM,-0.07% and Bank of America BAC,+0.41% are up over twice as much as the S&P 500 since I suggested them in my stock letter last August. But they still look attractive. Recent pattern buying by smart insiders among smaller banks confirms the sector is still one to own, despite the strength over the past few quarters.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":118,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":true}