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- cancanzycancanzy
  ·2021-04-14
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  Coinbase is unlike any market debut Wall Street has ever seen
  KEY POINTS Coinbase is set to hit the public market on Wednesday, a week after preliminarily report
  Coinbase is unlike any market debut Wall Street has ever seen
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- cancanzycancanzy
  ·2021-04-06
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  FOMC meeting minutes, Powell speaks: What to know this week
  Traders returning from the long holiday weekend will turn their attention to more commentary out of
  FOMC meeting minutes, Powell speaks: What to know this week
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- cancanzycancanzy
  ·2021-04-05
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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCoinbase is unlike any market debut Wall Street has ever seen\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-14 01:21 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/13/coinbase-is-unlike-any-market-debut-wall-street-has-ever-seen-.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTS\n\nCoinbase is set to hit the public market on Wednesday, a week after preliminarily reporting a nine-fold increase in first-quarter revenue to an estimated $1.8 billion.\nRecent private ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/13/coinbase-is-unlike-any-market-debut-wall-street-has-ever-seen-.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/13/coinbase-is-unlike-any-market-debut-wall-street-has-ever-seen-.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1150521541","content_text":"KEY POINTS\n\nCoinbase is set to hit the public market on Wednesday, a week after preliminarily reporting a nine-fold increase in first-quarter revenue to an estimated $1.8 billion.\nRecent private market trades value the company at about $100 billion on a fully diluted basis. Its business so far has been closely tied to the price of bitcoin and ethereum. But while bitcoin has been on a tear this year, it lost 75% of its value in 2018, and there’s no reason that couldn’t happen again.\nCrypto evangelists say that the long-term value of the company goes way beyond those two currencies and will come from a shift in the structure of finance and online marketplaces.\n\n\nCoinbase is poised to command an astronomical valuation when the digital currency exchange goes public on Wednesday. But ask 10 market experts how the company shouldbevalued and you’ll likely get 10 answers.\nThat’s because Coinbase’s current business — the one that produced a whopping $1.8 billion of estimated revenue in thefirst quarterand up to $800 million in net income — is built almost entirely on the performance of bitcoin and ethereum.\nThose cryptocurrencies have skyrocketed more than 800% and 1,300% respectively in the past year. As a result, Coinbase, the most popular place for U.S. investors to purchase those assets, has grown nine-fold over that stretch.\nShould Coinbase hit the public market around its latest private market valuation of $100 billion, taking into account a fully diluted share count, it would instantly be one of the 85 most valuable U.S. companies.\nHere’s the key question for investors ahead of the Nasdaq debut: What happens when a crypto company with historically anomalous growth, massive uncertainty, and no official headquarters clashes with the rigors of Wall Street and familiar metrics like price-to-sales and price-to-earnings ratios?\n“Valuing any start-up can be challenging, but I think the issue of valuation is far more complex with a company like Coinbase,” saidNatalie Hwang, founding managing partner at investment firm Apeira Capital. She doesn’t have a current stake in the company.\nPredicting crypto prices has proven to be a foolhardy game. Swings can be so rapid in either direction that Coinbase has 27 bullet points in itsprospectuson the volatility risks. They include changes in investor confidence, negative publicity and social media coverage, regulatory issues and service interruptions related to the technology.\nBecause the underlying assets that make up Coinbase’s financial story are so unpredictable, fundamental analysis of earnings quality, customer retention and efficiency doesn’t get you very far. Coinbase evangelists don’t spend much time on it.\nRather, they’re looking down the road to a future in which financial intermediaries are diminished and transactions take place predominantly on the blockchain. Online marketplaces for e-commerce, travel and homebuying, they say, will use a variety of cryptocurrencies to connect buyers and sellers, with blockchain serving as the universal source of truth.\nCoinbase calls it the “cryptoeconomy,” a word that shows up 163 times in its prospectus. It portends a software-powered world of payments, trading and all sorts of peer-to-peer transactions that take advantage of blockchain’s ability to give everything a unique identifier.\nIf Coinbase bulls are right, the company is at the center of a critical transformation of the internet. Some compare it to Netscape, which introduced the browser to consumers. Others look at howAmazonbrought physical retail to the web or howFacebookbecame the way that people connect.\nMatthew Le Merle, managing partner of investment firm Fifth Era and Blockchain Coinvestors, said that tying Coinbase’s value to bitcoin would be like valuing Amazon in its early days based on book sales, or placing a multiple onAirbnbfive years ago by looking at its number of rental nights booked.\n“You don’t think about bitcoin volatility, trading fees and revenue,” said Le Merle, whose firm specializes in crypto and has exposure to Coinbase through investments in some venture funds. “You have to start with — what’s the profit pool of the world’s digital monies and assets? In that context, this is trillions and trillions of dollars that’s going to be shifting hands.”\nToday it’s about bitcoin transactions\nNo matter what the future holds, Coinbase’s revenue at least through this year will largely be determined by transaction volume, which is currently tied closely to bitcoin prices. Coinbase makes a fee on trades that varies based on transaction size.\nIn itsfirst-quarter earnings reportlast week, Coinbase said it had 6.1 million monthly transacting users (MTUs). Should crypto prices rise, MTUs for the year could reach 7 million, Coinbase’s most aggressive estimate. In the middle range, assuming a flat crypto market, MTUs would land at 5.5 million. The most conservative prediction, assuming prices drop, is 4 million MTUs.\nCoinbase skeptics see a company that relies on fees in a market where a growing roster of rivals can get aggressive with pricing. For example, the popular appRobinhooddoesn’t charge a fee for crypto purchases.\nStock research firm New Constructs wrote in a report last week that competition from companies likeKraken,GeminiandBinancewill eat into Coinbase’s future fee revenue leading to a “race to the bottom,” similar to what happened in stock trading. The firm said that, according to its analysis, Coinbase should be valued at $18.9 billion, or 81% below its expected market cap.\n“As the cryptocurrency market matures and more firms inevitably pursue Coinbase’s high margins, the firm’s competitive position will inevitably deteriorate,” New Constructs wrote. Competitors “will likely offer lower or zero trading fees as a strategy to take market share.”\nSusquehanna, a research and trading firm, is much more optimistic on Coinbase, estimating a fair value market cap of $96 billion to $108 billion. That’s a price-to-sales multiple for Coinbase’s 2023 revenue of between 11 and 12, a premium to its peer group average of seven because of the company’s “high growth,” Susquehanna wrote last week.\nAlmost all of that growth for Coinbase comes from the high volume of bitcoin and ethereum trades. The company is going public during a crypto super bull market that seen bitcoin climb from under $30,000 at the end of 2020 past $60,000 today.\nBut in 2018 bitcoin lost 75% of its value, and there are no rules against that happening again. In the risk factors section of Coinbase’s prospectus, the first two items consider that very point.\nThe first says that financial results will fluctuate based on the crypto market. The second says revenue is “substantially dependent” on crypto prices and volumes and that “if such price or volume declines, our business, operating results, and financial condition would be adversely affected.”\nBeyond day-trading Coinbase\nBut perhaps these evaluations are all msiguided.\nRoger Lee, a partner at Battery Ventures, which invested in Coinbase in 2017 at a$1.6 billion valuation, calls bitcoin the “least interesting thing” about crypto right now. Thus, there’s no sales multiple that makes sense.\nThe right way to think about Coinbase, Lee says, is to imagine where the internet was in 1994 before Netscape effectively turned the lights on for the average consumer by providing a way to browse. Similarly, Coinbase brings the complex concept of crypto into the mainstream, allowing the masses to learn about and invest in it.\nThe more people start to read and hear about various project that are emerging within the cryptoeconomy, the less they’ll focus on the bitcoin chart, said Lee.\n“For a lot of people day trading Coinbase, they’ll be fixated on the price of bitcoin,” Lee said in an interview. “For people who are long-term investors and see everything going on not just with bitcoin but with the 40, 50, 60, 100 tokens over time that enable all these other use cases, they’ll realize that Coinbase is an index for the other things being built.”\nAs an example, Lee pointed toRally Network, a service that allows creators and artists to launch their own coins on the ethereum blockchain without knowing how to code. Creators can reward fans with tokens, which can then be used to buy goods like merchandise or concert tickets. Unlike most sites for artists, there’s no fee for the host.\n“This is diametrically opposed to a traditional platform that needs to ‘tax’ or ‘charge’ the creators to generate revenue,” said Lee, whose firm is an investor in Rally, in a follow-up email.\nRally has its own network token that investors can buy and sell as they would bitcoin, though on Coinbase it’s only available on the custodian service for institutional buyers.\nIn addition to the many altcoins on the market, there’s the recent explosion ofnon-fungible tokens(NFTs), or digital assets that live on the blockchain. Athletes have been selling videoclips of highlightsfor up to hundreds of thousands of dollars each, whilepieces of arthave sold in the millions of dollars.\nA virtual art piece titled “Everydays: The First 5000 Days.” Created by digital artist Beeple, it’s the first NFT-based work of art to go on auction at Christie’s.Christie’s\nIn February, Justin Blau, the DJ and musician who goes by 3LAU, auctioned off a series ofsongs, art and videos as NFTsand reeled in close to $12 million in the process. For the NFT technology, he partnered withOrigin Protocol, which powers crypto marketplaces and e-commerce sites.\nThe Origin token can be purchased on Coinbase and is currentlytradingat $2.39. That’s up more than 20-fold in 2021, even after dropping more than 20% in the last week.\nOrigin co-founder Josh Fraser is in the camp of crypto true believers, expecting rapid market adoption across finance and commerce. He points out thatPayPalhas a market cap above $300 billion, with a growth rate that hovers around 20%.\n“There is no reason to say Coinbase should not be valued more than a PayPal at almost $300B especially with the multiplier awarded to disruptive technology stocks,” Fraser wrote in an email from Taiwan. “The addressable market for money itself is gigantic and Coinbase would be one of the best ‘picks and shovels’ plays for this.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":109,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343873580,"gmtCreate":1617707884040,"gmtModify":1704702025353,"author":{"id":"3577277900281555","authorId":"3577277900281555","name":"cancanzy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe9d5f87c29d29005c8a48dc46c630b1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577277900281555","idStr":"3577277900281555"},"themes":[],"htmlText":":o","listText":":o","text":":o","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/343873580","repostId":"2125757547","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2125757547","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617610742,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2125757547?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-05 16:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"FOMC meeting minutes, Powell speaks: What to know this week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2125757547","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"Traders returning from the long holiday weekend will turn their attention to more commentary out of ","content":"<p>Traders returning from the long holiday weekend will turn their attention to more commentary out of the Federal Reserve, with the Federal Open Market Committee's latest meeting minutes and a speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on deck. Relatively few new economic data reports or corporate earnings results are scheduled for release.</p><p>The FOMC's meeting minutes, due out Wednesday afternoon, will elucidate members' thinking from their March meeting. At the conclusion of that meeting, the central bank's median forecast for economic growth was sharply upwardly revised, reflecting improving growth trends as the trajectory of new COVID-19 infections improved and vaccinations broadened out. The central bank said it expects real GDP to grow 6.5% this year, versus the 4.2% rate it anticipated in December. The Fed also said it sees the unemployment rate improving to 4.5% by year-end before returning to its pre-pandemic level of 3.5% by 2023.</p><p>Despite these improving projections, the Fed still telegraphed that interest rates would likely remain on hold at current near-zero levels through 2023, with the central bank maintaining its ultra-accommodative monetary policy posturing despite a quicker-than-previously-expected economic recovery. Market participants have been wary of this message, with the Fed suggesting a stubborn tilt toward easy monetary policy even in the face of rising inflation. The Fed's latest forecast showed the median member believed core inflation would rise to 2.4% this year, hitting and exceeding the Fed's 2% target two years earlier than previously anticipated.</p><p>Fed Chair Powell said in his mid-March press conference that inflation would need to be \"on track to exceed 2% moderately for some time\" in order for the Fed to consider its inflation goal met and allow for liftoff on rates. However, that assertion has left some room for interpretation by market participants, leading many to speculate the Fed may be pushed to adjust policy sooner than it has recently telegraphed.</p><h2>'Forecast disagreement'</h2><h2></h2><p>According to a recent survey from Deustche Bank, \"The current gap between the market and the Fed is mostly about forecast disagreement. In particular, survey respondents expect that core PCE in the 2.2%-2.3% range in 2022 and 2023 will beget a more hawkish Fed response,\" Deutsche Bank economist Matthew Luzzetti wrote in a note. \"While we learned at the FOMC meeting that 2.1% core PCE [personal consumption expenditures] inflation is not sufficiently high to trigger liftoff, it is still unclear whether inflation rates in the 2.2%-2.3% range — as expected by our survey and market pricing — would be high enough to get the Fed to tighten. This ambiguity is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> drawback of the Fed's flexible average inflation targeting (FAIT) approach which leaves key parameters undefined.\"</p><p>\"If the Fed were to clearly signal that core PCE inflation in the 2.2%-2.3% range for a year or two is consistent with their view of FAIT and would not trigger a tightening of monetary policy, they could impact market pricing,\" he added. \"Conversely, if the FOMC believes they would raise rates in response to these inflation realizations, then the market is currently pricing an appropriate reaction function and it will take some time for a verdict on whether the Fed or market is correct about the persistence of this inflation shock.\"</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e00f01f2ead30a11c8273f332b00d3da\" tg-width=\"6000\" tg-height=\"4000\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>WASHINGTON, DC - JANUARY 29: Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference after a Federal Open Market Committee meeting on January 29, 2020 in Washington, DC. Chairman Powell announced that the Federal Reserve will not be adjusting interest rates. (Photo by Samuel Corum/Getty Images)Samuel Corum via Getty Images</span></p><p>But while the jury appears to be out among market participants when it comes to the timing of the next rate hike, many agree that the first step toward tightening by the Federal Reserve will likely occur in their crisis-era asset purchase program. Fed Chair Powell said that the central bank would be looking for \"substantial further progress\" — and specifically \"actual progress\" in the data and not \"forecast progress\" — toward the Fed's employment and inflation goals before considering tapering.</p><p>Still, with the latest batch of March economic data exceeding estimates, the Fed may soon begin offering up firmer guidance around its plan for tapering the $120 billion per-month asset purchase program, which was first put into place at the start of the pandemic last year.</p><p>\"Financial conditions should remain quite accommodative for a while, and in our view risks an overshoot,\" Rich Rieder, BlackRock chief investment officer, said in a note. \"We think that the Fed should be able to taper asset purchases sooner than many expect and perhaps by the end of the year, or early next year, which suggests to us that communicating its plan could come as early as the June meeting.\"</p><p>While the forthcoming meeting minutes will not take into account FOMC members' appraisal of the latest batch of economic data, it will offer market participants a sense of whether some members were inclined to look past the first signs of a faster-than-expected economic recovery in dictating the direction of monetary policy.</p><p>That said, Fed Chair Powell's public remarks this coming Thursday will offer a more timely view of the central bank's policy thinking. Powell will be speaking at an International Monetary Fund panel on the global economy Thursday afternoon.</p><p>The discussion will come about a week after the Labor Department's March jobs report, which showed a much better than expected gain of 916,000 non-farm payrolls and a dip in the unemployment rate to 6.0%. Plus, last week's Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing purchasing managers' index unexpectedly jumped to a 37-year high, with some survey participants already citing a rise in commodity prices and a supply and demand mismatch that could exacerbate upward price pressures. Market participants will eye Powell's address to see whether or not these prints shift the needle in the Fed's monetary policy projections.</p><p>\"We expect that as the data come in, the volatility in Fed views will become more pronounced over coming months,\" RBC Capital Markets economists wrote in a note last week.</p><h2>Economic calendar</h2><ul><li><p><b>Monday: </b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a> U.S. Services PMI, March Final (60.2 expected, 60.0 in prior print); Markit U.S. Composite PMI, March Final (59.1 in prior print); ISM Services Index, March (58.7 expected, 55.3 in February); Factory Orders, February (-0.5% expected, 2.6% in January); Durable Goods Orders, February Final (-1.1% expected, -1.1% in prior print); Durable Goods Orders excluding transportation, February final (-0.9% expected, -0.9% in prior print); Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, February final (-0.8% in prior print); Non-defense capital goods shipments excluding aircraft, February final (-1.0% in prior print)</p></li><li><p><b>Tuesday:</b> JOLTS Job Openings, February (6.944 million expected, 6.917 million in prior print)</p></li><li><p><b>Wednesday: </b>MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended April 2 (-2.2% during prior week); Trade Balance, February (-$70.5 billion expected, -$68.2 billion in January); Consumer credit, February ($2.800 billion expected, -$1.315 billion in January) FOMC Meeting Minutes, March Meeting</p></li><li><p><b>Thursday: </b>Initial jobless claims, week ended April 3 (690,000 expected, 719,000 during prior week); Continuing claims, week ended March 27 (3.794 million during prior week)</p></li><li><p><b>Friday:</b> Producer Price Index, month-over-month, March (0.5% expected, 0.5% in February); Producer Price Index excluding food and energy, month-over-month, March (0.2% expected, 0.2% in February); Producer Price Index, year-over-year, March (3.8% expected, 2.5% in February); Producer Price Index excluding food and energy year-over-year, March (2.7% expected, 2.5% in February); Wholesale inventories, month-over-month, February final (0.5% expected, 0.5% in prior print)</p></li></ul><h2>Earnings calendar</h2><ul><li><p><b>Monday: </b>N/A</p></li><li><p><b>Tuesday: </b>N/A</p></li><li><p><b>Wednesday:</b> N/A</p></li><li><p><b>Thursday:</b> Constellation Brands (STZ) before market open</p></li><li><p><b>Friday: </b>N/A</p></li></ul>","source":"yahoofinance_au","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFOMC meeting minutes, Powell speaks: What to know this week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-05 16:19 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fomc-meeting-minutes-powell-speaks-what-to-know-in-the-week-ahead-154814153.html><strong>Yahoo Finance</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Traders returning from the long holiday weekend will turn their attention to more commentary out of the Federal Reserve, with the Federal Open Market Committee's latest meeting minutes and a speech ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fomc-meeting-minutes-powell-speaks-what-to-know-in-the-week-ahead-154814153.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fomc-meeting-minutes-powell-speaks-what-to-know-in-the-week-ahead-154814153.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2125757547","content_text":"Traders returning from the long holiday weekend will turn their attention to more commentary out of the Federal Reserve, with the Federal Open Market Committee's latest meeting minutes and a speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on deck. Relatively few new economic data reports or corporate earnings results are scheduled for release.The FOMC's meeting minutes, due out Wednesday afternoon, will elucidate members' thinking from their March meeting. At the conclusion of that meeting, the central bank's median forecast for economic growth was sharply upwardly revised, reflecting improving growth trends as the trajectory of new COVID-19 infections improved and vaccinations broadened out. The central bank said it expects real GDP to grow 6.5% this year, versus the 4.2% rate it anticipated in December. The Fed also said it sees the unemployment rate improving to 4.5% by year-end before returning to its pre-pandemic level of 3.5% by 2023.Despite these improving projections, the Fed still telegraphed that interest rates would likely remain on hold at current near-zero levels through 2023, with the central bank maintaining its ultra-accommodative monetary policy posturing despite a quicker-than-previously-expected economic recovery. Market participants have been wary of this message, with the Fed suggesting a stubborn tilt toward easy monetary policy even in the face of rising inflation. The Fed's latest forecast showed the median member believed core inflation would rise to 2.4% this year, hitting and exceeding the Fed's 2% target two years earlier than previously anticipated.Fed Chair Powell said in his mid-March press conference that inflation would need to be \"on track to exceed 2% moderately for some time\" in order for the Fed to consider its inflation goal met and allow for liftoff on rates. However, that assertion has left some room for interpretation by market participants, leading many to speculate the Fed may be pushed to adjust policy sooner than it has recently telegraphed.'Forecast disagreement'According to a recent survey from Deustche Bank, \"The current gap between the market and the Fed is mostly about forecast disagreement. In particular, survey respondents expect that core PCE in the 2.2%-2.3% range in 2022 and 2023 will beget a more hawkish Fed response,\" Deutsche Bank economist Matthew Luzzetti wrote in a note. \"While we learned at the FOMC meeting that 2.1% core PCE [personal consumption expenditures] inflation is not sufficiently high to trigger liftoff, it is still unclear whether inflation rates in the 2.2%-2.3% range — as expected by our survey and market pricing — would be high enough to get the Fed to tighten. This ambiguity is one drawback of the Fed's flexible average inflation targeting (FAIT) approach which leaves key parameters undefined.\"\"If the Fed were to clearly signal that core PCE inflation in the 2.2%-2.3% range for a year or two is consistent with their view of FAIT and would not trigger a tightening of monetary policy, they could impact market pricing,\" he added. \"Conversely, if the FOMC believes they would raise rates in response to these inflation realizations, then the market is currently pricing an appropriate reaction function and it will take some time for a verdict on whether the Fed or market is correct about the persistence of this inflation shock.\"WASHINGTON, DC - JANUARY 29: Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference after a Federal Open Market Committee meeting on January 29, 2020 in Washington, DC. Chairman Powell announced that the Federal Reserve will not be adjusting interest rates. (Photo by Samuel Corum/Getty Images)Samuel Corum via Getty ImagesBut while the jury appears to be out among market participants when it comes to the timing of the next rate hike, many agree that the first step toward tightening by the Federal Reserve will likely occur in their crisis-era asset purchase program. Fed Chair Powell said that the central bank would be looking for \"substantial further progress\" — and specifically \"actual progress\" in the data and not \"forecast progress\" — toward the Fed's employment and inflation goals before considering tapering.Still, with the latest batch of March economic data exceeding estimates, the Fed may soon begin offering up firmer guidance around its plan for tapering the $120 billion per-month asset purchase program, which was first put into place at the start of the pandemic last year.\"Financial conditions should remain quite accommodative for a while, and in our view risks an overshoot,\" Rich Rieder, BlackRock chief investment officer, said in a note. \"We think that the Fed should be able to taper asset purchases sooner than many expect and perhaps by the end of the year, or early next year, which suggests to us that communicating its plan could come as early as the June meeting.\"While the forthcoming meeting minutes will not take into account FOMC members' appraisal of the latest batch of economic data, it will offer market participants a sense of whether some members were inclined to look past the first signs of a faster-than-expected economic recovery in dictating the direction of monetary policy.That said, Fed Chair Powell's public remarks this coming Thursday will offer a more timely view of the central bank's policy thinking. Powell will be speaking at an International Monetary Fund panel on the global economy Thursday afternoon.The discussion will come about a week after the Labor Department's March jobs report, which showed a much better than expected gain of 916,000 non-farm payrolls and a dip in the unemployment rate to 6.0%. Plus, last week's Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing purchasing managers' index unexpectedly jumped to a 37-year high, with some survey participants already citing a rise in commodity prices and a supply and demand mismatch that could exacerbate upward price pressures. Market participants will eye Powell's address to see whether or not these prints shift the needle in the Fed's monetary policy projections.\"We expect that as the data come in, the volatility in Fed views will become more pronounced over coming months,\" RBC Capital Markets economists wrote in a note last week.Economic calendarMonday: Markit U.S. Services PMI, March Final (60.2 expected, 60.0 in prior print); Markit U.S. Composite PMI, March Final (59.1 in prior print); ISM Services Index, March (58.7 expected, 55.3 in February); Factory Orders, February (-0.5% expected, 2.6% in January); Durable Goods Orders, February Final (-1.1% expected, -1.1% in prior print); Durable Goods Orders excluding transportation, February final (-0.9% expected, -0.9% in prior print); Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, February final (-0.8% in prior print); Non-defense capital goods shipments excluding aircraft, February final (-1.0% in prior print)Tuesday: JOLTS Job Openings, February (6.944 million expected, 6.917 million in prior print)Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended April 2 (-2.2% during prior week); Trade Balance, February (-$70.5 billion expected, -$68.2 billion in January); Consumer credit, February ($2.800 billion expected, -$1.315 billion in January) FOMC Meeting Minutes, March MeetingThursday: Initial jobless claims, week ended April 3 (690,000 expected, 719,000 during prior week); Continuing claims, week ended March 27 (3.794 million during prior week)Friday: Producer Price Index, month-over-month, March (0.5% expected, 0.5% in February); Producer Price Index excluding food and energy, month-over-month, March (0.2% expected, 0.2% in February); Producer Price Index, year-over-year, March (3.8% expected, 2.5% in February); Producer Price Index excluding food and energy year-over-year, March (2.7% expected, 2.5% in February); Wholesale inventories, month-over-month, February final (0.5% expected, 0.5% in prior print)Earnings calendarMonday: N/ATuesday: N/AWednesday: N/AThursday: Constellation Brands (STZ) before market openFriday: N/A","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":178,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349664207,"gmtCreate":1617607085909,"gmtModify":1704700754441,"author":{"id":"3577277900281555","authorId":"3577277900281555","name":"cancanzy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe9d5f87c29d29005c8a48dc46c630b1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577277900281555","idStr":"3577277900281555"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Woots","listText":"Woots","text":"Woots","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/349664207","repostId":"1194643276","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":327,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":true}