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DLiew
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2021-09-15
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Amazon Stock Way Undervalued, Analysts Say
Today, the Amazon Maven glances at the most recent research reports issued by Wall Street on Amazon
Amazon Stock Way Undervalued, Analysts Say
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2021-09-12
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2021-09-10
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2021-09-07
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Wall Street Sets Its Sights On S&P 5000
Just recently in our “Daily Market Commentary” (subscribe for free), we discussed Wall Street settin
Wall Street Sets Its Sights On S&P 5000
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2021-09-06
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2021-09-05
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Beat the market with this quant system that’s very bullish on stocks at record highs
Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do
Beat the market with this quant system that’s very bullish on stocks at record highs
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2021-09-03
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2021-09-01
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Suze Orman’s Favorite Investing Method Might Cost You Money
Dollar-cost averaging usually loses out to another technique, a new study shows. Though Suze Orman
Suze Orman’s Favorite Investing Method Might Cost You Money
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2021-08-25
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2021-08-23
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Want a new Tesla? You're gonna have to wait a while
New York (CNN Business)You're going to have to wait a long time if you want to buy just about any Te
Want a new Tesla? You're gonna have to wait a while
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22:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon Stock Way Undervalued, Analysts Say","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151116941","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Today, the Amazon Maven glances at the most recent research reports issued by Wall Street on Amazon ","content":"<p>Today, the Amazon Maven glances at the most recent research reports issued by Wall Street on Amazon stock and quantifies the upside opportunity.</p>\n<p>In the last few days, Wall Street has sent a clear message: Amazon stock is a buy. At least this is the opinion of a handful of analysts that have published research reports since the Labor Day holiday.</p>\n<p>Today, the Amazon Maven looks at the main arguments made recently. But first is a bird’s eye view of how optimistic sell-side experts have been on the e-commerce giant’s shares.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b26230534e7279e5f9c21077e59cf721\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"930\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: Amazon Go store, in New York, NY.</span></p>\n<p><b>Wall Street on AMZN: 22% upside</b></p>\n<p>It is well known that bank analysts tend to have a bullish bias on the stocks that they cover. However, when it comes to AMZN, something even more interesting is happening. Of all 32 experts covered by TipRanks, not even one Wall Street analyst thinks that Amazon stock should trade below its current market price of $3,455 apiece.</p>\n<p>Still 7% below July’s all-time high, Amazon shares should be worth $4,225, according to Wall Street’s consensus estimates. Should these target levels be achieved, investors that buy AMZN today would realize sizable gains of 22%.</p>\n<p><b>The latest from analysts</b></p>\n<p>About a half dozen reports have been issued on Amazon stock in the past week. Goldman Sachs’ Eric Sheridan has just initiated coverage on AMZN with a buy rating and price target of $4,250, representing 23% upside potential.</p>\n<p>According to the analyst, the Seattle-based company should be a beneficiary of the tailwinds in the internet sector. In addition, the company has “exposure to multiple long-term runways that can sustain 15%-plus growth while also producing margin expansion in the coming years”.</p>\n<p>Bank of America’s Justin Post went a few layers deeper and pointed out one key growth opportunity: the development of a POS (point-of-sale) system that would allow Amazon to compete with Shopify and others. The analyst stated the following:</p>\n<blockquote>\n “We expect Amazon to offer a feature rich product with deep integration with Amazon’s marketplace, fulfilment, checkout, and payments processing capabilities. […] The opportunity is big, and Amazon’s existing customer relationships provide a foundation to help build adoption.”\n</blockquote>\n<p>Also worth noting, Evercore ISI’s Mark Mahaney bumped his target price by $500 to suggest juicy gains of 36% ahead. Mr. Mahaney was one of the few analysts to accurately predict Amazon’s struggles in Q2 before the company delivered results that, in fact, missed the mark.</p>\n<p><b>The Amazon Maven’s take</b></p>\n<p>We continue to hold the same opinion on Amazon stock that we did a few weeks ago. First, concerns over e-commerce results may have been a bit too short-sighted. The opportunity to buy into Amazon’s long-term growth story while the stock is off its historical peak is still on the table.</p>\n<p>Second, Amazon’s trailing P/E in the 60s, while certainly not depressed in absolute terms,remains near the lows relative to historical levels. Look forward, and the 2025 earnings multiple of only around 20 times suggests that AMZN has plenty of room to grow into its valuations.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon Stock Way Undervalued, Analysts Say</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon Stock Way Undervalued, Analysts Say\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-15 22:34 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.thestreet.com/amazon/stock/wall-street-is-emphatic-buy-amazon-stock><strong>TheStreet</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Today, the Amazon Maven glances at the most recent research reports issued by Wall Street on Amazon stock and quantifies the upside opportunity.\nIn the last few days, Wall Street has sent a clear ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/amazon/stock/wall-street-is-emphatic-buy-amazon-stock\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/amazon/stock/wall-street-is-emphatic-buy-amazon-stock","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151116941","content_text":"Today, the Amazon Maven glances at the most recent research reports issued by Wall Street on Amazon stock and quantifies the upside opportunity.\nIn the last few days, Wall Street has sent a clear message: Amazon stock is a buy. At least this is the opinion of a handful of analysts that have published research reports since the Labor Day holiday.\nToday, the Amazon Maven looks at the main arguments made recently. But first is a bird’s eye view of how optimistic sell-side experts have been on the e-commerce giant’s shares.\nFigure 1: Amazon Go store, in New York, NY.\nWall Street on AMZN: 22% upside\nIt is well known that bank analysts tend to have a bullish bias on the stocks that they cover. However, when it comes to AMZN, something even more interesting is happening. Of all 32 experts covered by TipRanks, not even one Wall Street analyst thinks that Amazon stock should trade below its current market price of $3,455 apiece.\nStill 7% below July’s all-time high, Amazon shares should be worth $4,225, according to Wall Street’s consensus estimates. Should these target levels be achieved, investors that buy AMZN today would realize sizable gains of 22%.\nThe latest from analysts\nAbout a half dozen reports have been issued on Amazon stock in the past week. Goldman Sachs’ Eric Sheridan has just initiated coverage on AMZN with a buy rating and price target of $4,250, representing 23% upside potential.\nAccording to the analyst, the Seattle-based company should be a beneficiary of the tailwinds in the internet sector. In addition, the company has “exposure to multiple long-term runways that can sustain 15%-plus growth while also producing margin expansion in the coming years”.\nBank of America’s Justin Post went a few layers deeper and pointed out one key growth opportunity: the development of a POS (point-of-sale) system that would allow Amazon to compete with Shopify and others. The analyst stated the following:\n\n “We expect Amazon to offer a feature rich product with deep integration with Amazon’s marketplace, fulfilment, checkout, and payments processing capabilities. […] The opportunity is big, and Amazon’s existing customer relationships provide a foundation to help build adoption.”\n\nAlso worth noting, Evercore ISI’s Mark Mahaney bumped his target price by $500 to suggest juicy gains of 36% ahead. Mr. Mahaney was one of the few analysts to accurately predict Amazon’s struggles in Q2 before the company delivered results that, in fact, missed the mark.\nThe Amazon Maven’s take\nWe continue to hold the same opinion on Amazon stock that we did a few weeks ago. First, concerns over e-commerce results may have been a bit too short-sighted. The opportunity to buy into Amazon’s long-term growth story while the stock is off its historical peak is still on the table.\nSecond, Amazon’s trailing P/E in the 60s, while certainly not depressed in absolute terms,remains near the lows relative to historical levels. Look forward, and the 2025 earnings multiple of only around 20 times suggests that AMZN has plenty of room to grow into its valuations.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3526,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":888169086,"gmtCreate":1631457573345,"gmtModify":1676530551017,"author":{"id":"3577525278195004","authorId":"3577525278195004","name":"DLiew","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577525278195004","idStr":"3577525278195004"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/888169086","repostId":"2166290377","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3072,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":883609530,"gmtCreate":1631235764920,"gmtModify":1676530503447,"author":{"id":"3577525278195004","authorId":"3577525278195004","name":"DLiew","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577525278195004","idStr":"3577525278195004"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/883609530","repostId":"1147431000","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3868,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880159707,"gmtCreate":1631026588809,"gmtModify":1676530447270,"author":{"id":"3577525278195004","authorId":"3577525278195004","name":"DLiew","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577525278195004","idStr":"3577525278195004"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/880159707","repostId":"1195259563","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195259563","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631024798,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1195259563?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-07 22:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street Sets Its Sights On S&P 5000","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195259563","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Just recently in our “Daily Market Commentary” (subscribe for free), we discussed Wall Street settin","content":"<p>Just recently in our <i><b>“Daily Market Commentary”</b></i> <i>(subscribe for free)</i>, we discussed Wall Street setting its sights on S&P 5000.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“Wells Fargo’s Chris Harvey raised his year-end S&P 500 price target to 4,825 from 3,850, as reported by Bloomberg’s Lu Wang. This move follows a weekend note by David Lefkowitz, head of equities for the Americas at UBS Wealth Management, who raised his year-end price target for the S&P 500 to 4,600 from 4,500.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>Lefkowitz also raised his June 2022 price target to 4,800 from 4,650, with the real headline coming from his year-end 2022 S&P 500 price target — </i>\n <i><b>5,000</b></i>\n <i>.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>‘Yes, the rally off the COVID-19 bottom in March 2020 has been extraordinary, but we think there are further gains ahead,’ Lefkowitz writes. ‘Solid economic and corporate profit growth, in conjunction with a still-accommodative Fed, means that the environment for stocks remains favorable. As a result of our higher EPS estimates, we raise our targets for the S&P 500 for December 2021 by 100 points to 4,600 and June 2022 by 150 points to 4,800. We initiate our December 2022 target of 5,000, representing about 13% price appreciation from current levels.’</i>” – \n <i>Yahoo</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>he Race To 5000</b></p>\n<p>Considering the <b><i>marketalready doubled from the pandemic lows</i></b><b>,</b>the escalation of price targets is not surprising. <b>Such is particularly the case when Wall Street needs to sell products to retail investors.</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“The following graph and commentary from GMO, show that over the last year corporations took advantage of higher share prices. Interestingly, IPO issuance is currently running at the same pace as the market peak in 2000. </i>\n <i><b>Massive issuance from existing stocks is largely responsible for the big difference between total issuance today versus 2000.”</b></i> – \n <i>Michael Lebowitz</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a60ccb429ef698e1ee32c3eacf3057f\" tg-width=\"644\" tg-height=\"441\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Like roaches in the kitchen, when there is one, there are always others. Credit Suisse also hiked price targets suggesting that earnings growth is the driving factor. To wit:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>With this 2022 outlook, Lefkowitz joins Credit Suisse’s Jonathan Golub who earlier this month put a price target of 5,000 on the S&P 500 for the end of 2022. The equity strategy team at Goldman Sachs also garnered headlines earlier this month in raising their year-end price target to 4,700 from 4,300 while putting a year-end 2022 price target on the benchmark index of 4,900.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i><b>Lefkowitz sees earnings growth, not multiple expansion</b></i>\n <i>, </i>\n <i><b>as the driving force behind the market’s rally in the year ahead.</b></i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>‘Our price targets assume a forward P/E multiple of about 20x, slightly below current levels of 21x. </i>\n <i><b>We expect valuations to remain above historical averages mostly due to the very low interest rate environment.</b></i>\n <i> Said another way, stocks continue to look appealing relative to bonds.’” – Yahoo</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Rationalizing The Increase</b></p>\n<p>The problem with the analysis is that it is based on rationalizations rather than reality. We discussed previously there is no precedent supporting the view that<b><i>low rates justify high valuations.</i></b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“The primary argument is that when inflation or interest rates fall, the present value of future cash flows from equities rises, and subsequently, so should their valuation. While true, assuming all else is equal, a falling discount rate does suggest a higher valuation. </i>\n <i><b>However, when inflation declines, future nominal cash flow from equities also falls, this can offset the effect of lower discount rates. Lower discount rates are applied to lower expected cash flows.</b></i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>In other words, without adjusting for inflation and, in no small degree, economic growth, suggesting low rates justify overpaying for cash flows is a very flawed premise.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n ‘\n <i>Instead of regarding stocks as a fixed-rate bond with known nominal coupons, one must think of stocks as a floating-rate bond whose coupons will float with nominal earnings growth. In this analogy, the stock market’s P/E is like the price of a floating-rate bond. </i>\n <i><b>In most cases, despite moves in interest rates, the price of a floating-rate bond changes little, and likewise the rational P/E for the stock market moves little.’ – Cliff Asness</b></i>“\n</blockquote>\n<p>Let’s set aside the <i>“low rate rationalization”</i> and focus on the <i>“earnings growth”</i> side of the valuation argument.</p>\n<p><b>Earnings Growth A Reflection Of Economic Growth</b></p>\n<p>The biggest problem for the S&P 5000 target is underlying earnings. There is an obvious correlation between economic growth and corporate earnings. Such is because over the long term the economy is what generates corporate revenues. While analysts ramped up earnings expectations following the massive liquidity injections from the Government, the payback is coming.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“As BofA recently noted, global expectations are beginning to roll over from very high levels.</i>\n <i><b>“</b></i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d12d6a3bd5f8eed52d4598651df90f6a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"282\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e353b5bf191cf181c9f781aca12fb696\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"287\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The first problem with Wall Street analysis is several:</p>\n<ol>\n <li><p><i>Historically, earnings estimates are roughly 30% higher than what turns out to be reality.</i></p></li>\n <li><p><i>As reporting dates approach, analysts revise down estimates below reported levels (assuring a high beat rate), and</i></p></li>\n <li><p><i>Analysts are never held accountable to their orginal estimates.</i></p></li>\n</ol>\n<p>Given the lack of accountability, it is not surprising analysts are always overly optimistic in their initial estimates which gives them plenty of room to downgrade in the future.</p>\n<p>However, there is roughly a 90% correlation between the stock market and GAAP earnings growth. Therefore, if earnings do decline, as profit expectations fall, then the S&P will have a more difficult time hitting a high target.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc79210f66d3699a99c563cebd0c9e74\" tg-width=\"890\" tg-height=\"524\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Furthermore, the current gap between corporate profits and the market has historically not ended well for investors.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/222cb155cb46a703c18e553f1d8fe1f8\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"487\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>Valuations Will Remain Elevated</b></p>\n<p>The problem currently is even with the estimated increase in earnings, the QE-driven price increase keeps valuations extended well above historical ranges.</p>\n<p><b>While that statement comes with the caveat that </b><b><i>“valuations are terrible market timing metrics,”</i></b><b> they do imply lofty expectations are likely to be disappointed.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbeef23ed40e552240782e1f06a9014e\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"623\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><b>I previously quoted Carl Swenlin on earnings.</b> As Carl noted, there is nothing normal with GAAP earnings. But, of course, today, most companies report <i>“operating”</i> earnings which obfuscate profitability by excluding all the <i>“bad stuff.”</i></p>\n<p>The following table shows the expectations for <b>reported earnings growth:</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li><p><b><i>2020 (actual) = $94.13 / share</i></b></p></li>\n <li><p><i><b>2021 (estimate) = $185.49</b></i><i> (Increase of 97% over 2020)</i></p></li>\n <li><p><i><b>2022 (estimate) = $200.62</b></i><i> (Increase of 113% over 2020)</i></p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>The chart below uses these earnings estimates and assumes NO price increase for the S&P 500 through 2022. Such would reduce valuations from 41x earnings in 2020 to roughly 22x earnings in 2022. <i><b>(That valuation level remains near previous bull market peak valuations.)</b></i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a5577338210811dc42e7ebba8e59a5b\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"628\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">However, if analysts are correct and the market hits 5000, valuations remain elevated.<b>Instead of valuations declining, the increase in price keeps valuations hovering near 25x earnings.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e9a8b458d34c831b045b97dbdc9c80f\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"626\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Given that markets are already trading well above historical valuation ranges, such suggests that outcomes will likely not be as “<i>bullish”</i> as many currently expect.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“Historically, price has usually remained below the top of the normal value range (red line); however, since about 1998, it has not been uncommon for price to exceed normal overvalue levels, sometimes by a lot. The market has been mostly overvalued since 1992, and it has not been undervalued since 1984. </i>\n <i><b>We could say that this is the ‘new normal,’ except that it isn’t normal by GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) standards.” –</b></i>\n <i> Carl Swenlin</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>S&P 5000 Is Likely</b></p>\n<p>We don’t disagree the S&P 500 could well hit a target of 5000. But, let us be honest about the reasons why:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p><i>$120 billion a month in liquidity,</i></p></li>\n <li><p><i>Zero interest rates, and</i></p></li>\n <li><p><i>A substantial amount of speculative market fervor.</i></p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>Like a snowball, the current market momentum could very well carry the S&P higher over the next year.</p>\n<p>Such does not preclude a <i>“round-trip”</i> ticket in the future.</p>\n<p><b>Throughout history, overvaluations of markets have never been resolved by earnings catching up with the price.</b>Secondly, the two-fold problem of the temporary nature of the stimulus and inflation leaves the market vulnerable to a downward shift in earnings expectations over the next few quarters. As noted, Wall Street has ratcheted up expectations to try and justify current prices.</p>\n<p>While monetary interventions allow market participants to ignore the reality of the economic ties to the market, such does not preclude hair-raising volatility and significant declines, as we saw in March 2020.</p>\n<p><b>More importantly, if the Fed backs off, whether by its design or due to inflation, slower economic growth, or massive debt overhead, rich valuations will matter.</b></p>\n<p>The risk of disappointment is high. And so are the costs of investing based on analysis without all of the facts.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street Sets Its Sights On S&P 5000</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street Sets Its Sights On S&P 5000\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-07 22:26 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/wall-street-sets-its-sights-sp-5000?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Just recently in our “Daily Market Commentary” (subscribe for free), we discussed Wall Street setting its sights on S&P 5000.\n\n“Wells Fargo’s Chris Harvey raised his year-end S&P 500 price target to 4...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/wall-street-sets-its-sights-sp-5000?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/wall-street-sets-its-sights-sp-5000?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195259563","content_text":"Just recently in our “Daily Market Commentary” (subscribe for free), we discussed Wall Street setting its sights on S&P 5000.\n\n“Wells Fargo’s Chris Harvey raised his year-end S&P 500 price target to 4,825 from 3,850, as reported by Bloomberg’s Lu Wang. This move follows a weekend note by David Lefkowitz, head of equities for the Americas at UBS Wealth Management, who raised his year-end price target for the S&P 500 to 4,600 from 4,500.\n\n\nLefkowitz also raised his June 2022 price target to 4,800 from 4,650, with the real headline coming from his year-end 2022 S&P 500 price target — \n5,000\n.\n\n\n‘Yes, the rally off the COVID-19 bottom in March 2020 has been extraordinary, but we think there are further gains ahead,’ Lefkowitz writes. ‘Solid economic and corporate profit growth, in conjunction with a still-accommodative Fed, means that the environment for stocks remains favorable. As a result of our higher EPS estimates, we raise our targets for the S&P 500 for December 2021 by 100 points to 4,600 and June 2022 by 150 points to 4,800. We initiate our December 2022 target of 5,000, representing about 13% price appreciation from current levels.’” – \n Yahoo\n\nhe Race To 5000\nConsidering the marketalready doubled from the pandemic lows,the escalation of price targets is not surprising. Such is particularly the case when Wall Street needs to sell products to retail investors.\n\n“The following graph and commentary from GMO, show that over the last year corporations took advantage of higher share prices. Interestingly, IPO issuance is currently running at the same pace as the market peak in 2000. \nMassive issuance from existing stocks is largely responsible for the big difference between total issuance today versus 2000.” – \n Michael Lebowitz\n\nLike roaches in the kitchen, when there is one, there are always others. Credit Suisse also hiked price targets suggesting that earnings growth is the driving factor. To wit:\n\nWith this 2022 outlook, Lefkowitz joins Credit Suisse’s Jonathan Golub who earlier this month put a price target of 5,000 on the S&P 500 for the end of 2022. The equity strategy team at Goldman Sachs also garnered headlines earlier this month in raising their year-end price target to 4,700 from 4,300 while putting a year-end 2022 price target on the benchmark index of 4,900.\n\n\nLefkowitz sees earnings growth, not multiple expansion\n, \nas the driving force behind the market’s rally in the year ahead.\n\n\n‘Our price targets assume a forward P/E multiple of about 20x, slightly below current levels of 21x. \nWe expect valuations to remain above historical averages mostly due to the very low interest rate environment.\n Said another way, stocks continue to look appealing relative to bonds.’” – Yahoo\n\nRationalizing The Increase\nThe problem with the analysis is that it is based on rationalizations rather than reality. We discussed previously there is no precedent supporting the view thatlow rates justify high valuations.\n\n“The primary argument is that when inflation or interest rates fall, the present value of future cash flows from equities rises, and subsequently, so should their valuation. While true, assuming all else is equal, a falling discount rate does suggest a higher valuation. \nHowever, when inflation declines, future nominal cash flow from equities also falls, this can offset the effect of lower discount rates. Lower discount rates are applied to lower expected cash flows.\n\n\nIn other words, without adjusting for inflation and, in no small degree, economic growth, suggesting low rates justify overpaying for cash flows is a very flawed premise.\n\n\n ‘\n Instead of regarding stocks as a fixed-rate bond with known nominal coupons, one must think of stocks as a floating-rate bond whose coupons will float with nominal earnings growth. In this analogy, the stock market’s P/E is like the price of a floating-rate bond. \nIn most cases, despite moves in interest rates, the price of a floating-rate bond changes little, and likewise the rational P/E for the stock market moves little.’ – Cliff Asness“\n\nLet’s set aside the “low rate rationalization” and focus on the “earnings growth” side of the valuation argument.\nEarnings Growth A Reflection Of Economic Growth\nThe biggest problem for the S&P 5000 target is underlying earnings. There is an obvious correlation between economic growth and corporate earnings. Such is because over the long term the economy is what generates corporate revenues. While analysts ramped up earnings expectations following the massive liquidity injections from the Government, the payback is coming.\n\n“As BofA recently noted, global expectations are beginning to roll over from very high levels.\n“\n\nThe first problem with Wall Street analysis is several:\n\nHistorically, earnings estimates are roughly 30% higher than what turns out to be reality.\nAs reporting dates approach, analysts revise down estimates below reported levels (assuring a high beat rate), and\nAnalysts are never held accountable to their orginal estimates.\n\nGiven the lack of accountability, it is not surprising analysts are always overly optimistic in their initial estimates which gives them plenty of room to downgrade in the future.\nHowever, there is roughly a 90% correlation between the stock market and GAAP earnings growth. Therefore, if earnings do decline, as profit expectations fall, then the S&P will have a more difficult time hitting a high target.\nFurthermore, the current gap between corporate profits and the market has historically not ended well for investors.\n\nValuations Will Remain Elevated\nThe problem currently is even with the estimated increase in earnings, the QE-driven price increase keeps valuations extended well above historical ranges.\nWhile that statement comes with the caveat that “valuations are terrible market timing metrics,” they do imply lofty expectations are likely to be disappointed.\nI previously quoted Carl Swenlin on earnings. As Carl noted, there is nothing normal with GAAP earnings. But, of course, today, most companies report “operating” earnings which obfuscate profitability by excluding all the “bad stuff.”\nThe following table shows the expectations for reported earnings growth:\n\n2020 (actual) = $94.13 / share\n2021 (estimate) = $185.49 (Increase of 97% over 2020)\n2022 (estimate) = $200.62 (Increase of 113% over 2020)\n\nThe chart below uses these earnings estimates and assumes NO price increase for the S&P 500 through 2022. Such would reduce valuations from 41x earnings in 2020 to roughly 22x earnings in 2022. (That valuation level remains near previous bull market peak valuations.)\nHowever, if analysts are correct and the market hits 5000, valuations remain elevated.Instead of valuations declining, the increase in price keeps valuations hovering near 25x earnings.\nGiven that markets are already trading well above historical valuation ranges, such suggests that outcomes will likely not be as “bullish” as many currently expect.\n\n“Historically, price has usually remained below the top of the normal value range (red line); however, since about 1998, it has not been uncommon for price to exceed normal overvalue levels, sometimes by a lot. The market has been mostly overvalued since 1992, and it has not been undervalued since 1984. \nWe could say that this is the ‘new normal,’ except that it isn’t normal by GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) standards.” –\n Carl Swenlin\n\nS&P 5000 Is Likely\nWe don’t disagree the S&P 500 could well hit a target of 5000. But, let us be honest about the reasons why:\n\n$120 billion a month in liquidity,\nZero interest rates, and\nA substantial amount of speculative market fervor.\n\nLike a snowball, the current market momentum could very well carry the S&P higher over the next year.\nSuch does not preclude a “round-trip” ticket in the future.\nThroughout history, overvaluations of markets have never been resolved by earnings catching up with the price.Secondly, the two-fold problem of the temporary nature of the stimulus and inflation leaves the market vulnerable to a downward shift in earnings expectations over the next few quarters. As noted, Wall Street has ratcheted up expectations to try and justify current prices.\nWhile monetary interventions allow market participants to ignore the reality of the economic ties to the market, such does not preclude hair-raising volatility and significant declines, as we saw in March 2020.\nMore importantly, if the Fed backs off, whether by its design or due to inflation, slower economic growth, or massive debt overhead, rich valuations will matter.\nThe risk of disappointment is high. And so are the costs of investing based on analysis without all of the facts.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3264,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817925722,"gmtCreate":1630899557366,"gmtModify":1676530416055,"author":{"id":"3577525278195004","authorId":"3577525278195004","name":"DLiew","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577525278195004","idStr":"3577525278195004"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/817925722","repostId":"1192663802","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4496,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":814294695,"gmtCreate":1630820377917,"gmtModify":1676530401393,"author":{"id":"3577525278195004","authorId":"3577525278195004","name":"DLiew","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577525278195004","idStr":"3577525278195004"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/814294695","repostId":"1157895022","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157895022","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630810619,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1157895022?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-05 10:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Beat the market with this quant system that’s very bullish on stocks at record highs","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157895022","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do ","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do so. So far his team of computer scientists’ strategy has paid off.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Imagine you had a money-making machine to harvest gains in the stock market while you sat back to enjoy life.</p>\n<p>That’s everyone’s dream, right? Investor Vance Howard thinks he’s found it.</p>\n<p>Howard and his small army of computer programmers atHoward Capital Managementin Roswell, Ga., have a quantitative system that posts great returns.</p>\n<p>His HCM Tactical Growth Fund HCMGX,+0.35%beats its Russell 1000 benchmark index and large-blend fund category by 8.5-10.4 percentage points annualized over the past five years, according to Morningstar. That is no small feat, and not only because it has to overcome a 2.22% fee. Beating the market is simply not easy. His HCM Dividend Sector PlusHCMQX,-0.05%) and HCM Income PlusHCMLX,+0.30%funds post similar outperformance.</p>\n<p>There are drawbacks, which I detail below. (Among them: Potentially long stretches of underperformance and regular tax bills.) But first, what can we learn from this winner?</p>\n<p>So-called quants never share all the details of their proprietary systems, but Howard shares a lot, as you’ll see. And this Texas rancher has a lot of good advice based on “horse sense” — not surprising, given his infectious passion for the markets, and his three decades of experience as a pro.</p>\n<p>Here are five lessons, 12 exchange traded funds (ETFs) and four stocks to consider, from a recent interview with him.</p>\n<p><b>Lesson #1: Don’t be emotional</b></p>\n<p>It’s no surprise so many people do poorly in the market. Evolution has programmed us to fail. For survival, we’ve learned to run from things that frightens us. And crave more of things that are pleasurable — like sweets or fats to store calories ahead of what might be a long stretch without food. But in the market, acting on the emotions of fear and greed invariably make us do the wrong thing at the wrong time. Sell at the bottom, buy at the top.</p>\n<p>Likewise, we’re programmed to believe being with the crowd brings safety. If you’re a zebra on the Savanna, you are more likely to get picked off by a predator if you go it alone. The problem here is being part of a crowd — and crowd psychology — dumb us down to a purely emotional level. This is why people in crowds do terrible things they would never do on their own. It doesn’t matter how smart you are. When you join a crowd, you lose a lot of IQ points. Base emotions take over.</p>\n<p>To do well in the market, you have to counteract these tendencies. “One of the biggest mistakes individual investors and money managers make is getting emotional,” says Howard. “Let your emotions go.”</p>\n<p><b>Lesson #2: Have a system and stick to it</b></p>\n<p>To exorcise emotion, have a system. “And don’t second guess it,” says Howard. “This keeps you from letting the pandemic or Afghanistan scare you out of the market.” He calls his system the HCM-BuyLine. It is basically a momentum and trend-following system — which often works well in the markets.</p>\n<p>The HCM-BuyLine basically works like this. First, rather than use the S&P 500SPX,-0.03%or the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.21%,Howard blends several stock indices to create his own index. Then he uses a moving average that tells him whether the market is in an uptrend or downtrend.</p>\n<p>When the moving average drops 3.5%, he sells 35%. If it drops 6.5%, he sells another 35%. He rarely goes to 100% cash.</p>\n<p>“If the BuyLine is positive, we will stay long no matter what,” he says. “We take all the emotion out of the equation by letting the math decide.”</p>\n<p>Right now, it’s bullish. (More on this below.)</p>\n<p>Your system also has to tell you when to get back in.</p>\n<p>“That’s where most people screw up,” he says. “They get out of the market, and they don’t know when to get back in.” The HCM-BuyLine gives a buy signal when his custom index trades above its moving average for six consecutive sessions, and then goes on to trade above the high hit during those six days.</p>\n<p>You don’t need a system that calls exact market tops or bottoms. Instead, the BuyLine keeps Howard out of down markets 85% of the time, and in for 85% of the good times.</p>\n<p>“If we can do that consistently, we have superior returns and a less stressful life,” he says. “Being all in during a bad tape is no fun.”</p>\n<p>His system is slow to get him out of the market, but quick to get him back in. Not even a 10% correction will necessarily move him out. He’s often buying those pullbacks. Getting back in fast makes sense, because recoveries off bottoms tend to happen fast.</p>\n<p>“The HCM-BuyLine takes all the emotion out of the process,” says Howard.</p>\n<p><b>Lesson #3: Don’t fight the tape</b></p>\n<p>This concept is one of the core pieces of wisdom from Marty Zweig’s classic book, “Winning on Wall Street.”</p>\n<p>“You have to stay on the right side of market,” agrees Howard. “If you try to trade long in a bad market, it is painful.”</p>\n<p>In other words, don’t try to be a hero.</p>\n<p>“Sometimes, not losing money is where you want to be,” he says.</p>\n<p>Likewise, don’t turn cautious just because the market hits new highs — like now. You should love new highs, because it is a sign of market strength that may likely endure.</p>\n<p><b>Lesson #4: Keep it simple</b></p>\n<p>As you’ll see below, Howard doesn’t use esoteric instruments such as derivatives, swaps or index options. He doesn’t even trade foreign stocks or currencies. This is refreshing for individual investors, because we have a harder time accessing those tools.</p>\n<p>“You don’t have to trade crazy stuff,” he says. “You can trade plain-vanilla ETFs and beat everybody out there.”</p>\n<p><b>Lesson #5: How to trade the current market</b></p>\n<p>First, be long.</p>\n<p>“The HCM-BuyLine is very positive. We are 100% in,” says Howard. “The market is broadening out. It is getting pretty exciting. We do not see it turn around any time soon. We are buying pullbacks.”</p>\n<p>One bullish signal is all the cash on the sidelines. “If there is any relief in Covid, we may see a big rally. We may end up with a great fall [season].”</p>\n<p>Howard uses momentum indicators to select stocks and ETFs, too. For sectors he favors the following.</p>\n<p>He likes health care, tradable through the iShares US HealthcareIYH,-0.04%and ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL,+0.12%ETFs. He’s turning more bullish on biotech, which he plays via the iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB,-0.11%.</p>\n<p>He likes consumer discretionary tradable through the iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC,-0.30%,and airlines via US Global JetsJETS,-1.17%.He also likes tech exposure via the Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ,+0.31%,iShares US TechnologyIYW,+0.50%and iShares SemiconductorSOXX,+0.75%.</p>\n<p>He likes small-caps via the Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK,+0.07%.And convertible bonds via SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Convertible SecuritiesCWB,+0.64%and iShares Convertible BondICVT,+0.37%.</p>\n<p>As for individual names, he singles out MicrosoftMSFT,-0.00%and AppleAAPL,+0.42%in tech, as well as Amazon.comAMZN,+0.43%and TeslaTSLA,+0.16%.</p>\n<p>Also consider Howard’s two ETFs: The HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH,+0.62%and HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH,+1.32%.</p>\n<p>He prefers to add to holdings on 1%-3% dips.</p>\n<p><b>A few drawbacks</b></p>\n<p>His HCM Tactical Growth fund has a history of posting two-year stretches of underperformance of 1.5% to 8.8%, since it was launched in 2015. The fund then came roaring back to net the very positive five-year outperformance cited above. Investing in his system can require patience.</p>\n<p>Every manager, including Warren Buffett, can have a stretch of underperformance, says Howard.</p>\n<p>“We are in the odds game,” he says. “Even in the odds game, you can have a bad hand or two thrown at you.”</p>\n<p>Another challenge is the high turnover, which is 140% a year for Tactical Growth. This means Uncle Sam takes a big cut in the good years. So if you buy Howard’s funds, you may want to do so in a tax-protected account.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Beat the market with this quant system that’s very bullish on stocks at record highs</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBeat the market with this quant system that’s very bullish on stocks at record highs\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-05 10:56 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/beat-the-market-with-this-quant-system-thats-very-bullish-on-stocks-at-record-highs-11630761531?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do so. So far his team of computer scientists’ strategy has paid off.\n\nImagine you had a money-making ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/beat-the-market-with-this-quant-system-thats-very-bullish-on-stocks-at-record-highs-11630761531?mod=home-page\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/beat-the-market-with-this-quant-system-thats-very-bullish-on-stocks-at-record-highs-11630761531?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157895022","content_text":"Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do so. So far his team of computer scientists’ strategy has paid off.\n\nImagine you had a money-making machine to harvest gains in the stock market while you sat back to enjoy life.\nThat’s everyone’s dream, right? Investor Vance Howard thinks he’s found it.\nHoward and his small army of computer programmers atHoward Capital Managementin Roswell, Ga., have a quantitative system that posts great returns.\nHis HCM Tactical Growth Fund HCMGX,+0.35%beats its Russell 1000 benchmark index and large-blend fund category by 8.5-10.4 percentage points annualized over the past five years, according to Morningstar. That is no small feat, and not only because it has to overcome a 2.22% fee. Beating the market is simply not easy. His HCM Dividend Sector PlusHCMQX,-0.05%) and HCM Income PlusHCMLX,+0.30%funds post similar outperformance.\nThere are drawbacks, which I detail below. (Among them: Potentially long stretches of underperformance and regular tax bills.) But first, what can we learn from this winner?\nSo-called quants never share all the details of their proprietary systems, but Howard shares a lot, as you’ll see. And this Texas rancher has a lot of good advice based on “horse sense” — not surprising, given his infectious passion for the markets, and his three decades of experience as a pro.\nHere are five lessons, 12 exchange traded funds (ETFs) and four stocks to consider, from a recent interview with him.\nLesson #1: Don’t be emotional\nIt’s no surprise so many people do poorly in the market. Evolution has programmed us to fail. For survival, we’ve learned to run from things that frightens us. And crave more of things that are pleasurable — like sweets or fats to store calories ahead of what might be a long stretch without food. But in the market, acting on the emotions of fear and greed invariably make us do the wrong thing at the wrong time. Sell at the bottom, buy at the top.\nLikewise, we’re programmed to believe being with the crowd brings safety. If you’re a zebra on the Savanna, you are more likely to get picked off by a predator if you go it alone. The problem here is being part of a crowd — and crowd psychology — dumb us down to a purely emotional level. This is why people in crowds do terrible things they would never do on their own. It doesn’t matter how smart you are. When you join a crowd, you lose a lot of IQ points. Base emotions take over.\nTo do well in the market, you have to counteract these tendencies. “One of the biggest mistakes individual investors and money managers make is getting emotional,” says Howard. “Let your emotions go.”\nLesson #2: Have a system and stick to it\nTo exorcise emotion, have a system. “And don’t second guess it,” says Howard. “This keeps you from letting the pandemic or Afghanistan scare you out of the market.” He calls his system the HCM-BuyLine. It is basically a momentum and trend-following system — which often works well in the markets.\nThe HCM-BuyLine basically works like this. First, rather than use the S&P 500SPX,-0.03%or the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.21%,Howard blends several stock indices to create his own index. Then he uses a moving average that tells him whether the market is in an uptrend or downtrend.\nWhen the moving average drops 3.5%, he sells 35%. If it drops 6.5%, he sells another 35%. He rarely goes to 100% cash.\n“If the BuyLine is positive, we will stay long no matter what,” he says. “We take all the emotion out of the equation by letting the math decide.”\nRight now, it’s bullish. (More on this below.)\nYour system also has to tell you when to get back in.\n“That’s where most people screw up,” he says. “They get out of the market, and they don’t know when to get back in.” The HCM-BuyLine gives a buy signal when his custom index trades above its moving average for six consecutive sessions, and then goes on to trade above the high hit during those six days.\nYou don’t need a system that calls exact market tops or bottoms. Instead, the BuyLine keeps Howard out of down markets 85% of the time, and in for 85% of the good times.\n“If we can do that consistently, we have superior returns and a less stressful life,” he says. “Being all in during a bad tape is no fun.”\nHis system is slow to get him out of the market, but quick to get him back in. Not even a 10% correction will necessarily move him out. He’s often buying those pullbacks. Getting back in fast makes sense, because recoveries off bottoms tend to happen fast.\n“The HCM-BuyLine takes all the emotion out of the process,” says Howard.\nLesson #3: Don’t fight the tape\nThis concept is one of the core pieces of wisdom from Marty Zweig’s classic book, “Winning on Wall Street.”\n“You have to stay on the right side of market,” agrees Howard. “If you try to trade long in a bad market, it is painful.”\nIn other words, don’t try to be a hero.\n“Sometimes, not losing money is where you want to be,” he says.\nLikewise, don’t turn cautious just because the market hits new highs — like now. You should love new highs, because it is a sign of market strength that may likely endure.\nLesson #4: Keep it simple\nAs you’ll see below, Howard doesn’t use esoteric instruments such as derivatives, swaps or index options. He doesn’t even trade foreign stocks or currencies. This is refreshing for individual investors, because we have a harder time accessing those tools.\n“You don’t have to trade crazy stuff,” he says. “You can trade plain-vanilla ETFs and beat everybody out there.”\nLesson #5: How to trade the current market\nFirst, be long.\n“The HCM-BuyLine is very positive. We are 100% in,” says Howard. “The market is broadening out. It is getting pretty exciting. We do not see it turn around any time soon. We are buying pullbacks.”\nOne bullish signal is all the cash on the sidelines. “If there is any relief in Covid, we may see a big rally. We may end up with a great fall [season].”\nHoward uses momentum indicators to select stocks and ETFs, too. For sectors he favors the following.\nHe likes health care, tradable through the iShares US HealthcareIYH,-0.04%and ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL,+0.12%ETFs. He’s turning more bullish on biotech, which he plays via the iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB,-0.11%.\nHe likes consumer discretionary tradable through the iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC,-0.30%,and airlines via US Global JetsJETS,-1.17%.He also likes tech exposure via the Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ,+0.31%,iShares US TechnologyIYW,+0.50%and iShares SemiconductorSOXX,+0.75%.\nHe likes small-caps via the Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK,+0.07%.And convertible bonds via SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Convertible SecuritiesCWB,+0.64%and iShares Convertible BondICVT,+0.37%.\nAs for individual names, he singles out MicrosoftMSFT,-0.00%and AppleAAPL,+0.42%in tech, as well as Amazon.comAMZN,+0.43%and TeslaTSLA,+0.16%.\nAlso consider Howard’s two ETFs: The HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH,+0.62%and HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH,+1.32%.\nHe prefers to add to holdings on 1%-3% dips.\nA few drawbacks\nHis HCM Tactical Growth fund has a history of posting two-year stretches of underperformance of 1.5% to 8.8%, since it was launched in 2015. The fund then came roaring back to net the very positive five-year outperformance cited above. Investing in his system can require patience.\nEvery manager, including Warren Buffett, can have a stretch of underperformance, says Howard.\n“We are in the odds game,” he says. “Even in the odds game, you can have a bad hand or two thrown at you.”\nAnother challenge is the high turnover, which is 140% a year for Tactical Growth. This means Uncle Sam takes a big cut in the good years. So if you buy Howard’s funds, you may want to do so in a tax-protected account.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3987,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":815919959,"gmtCreate":1630634645271,"gmtModify":1676530362036,"author":{"id":"3577525278195004","authorId":"3577525278195004","name":"DLiew","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577525278195004","idStr":"3577525278195004"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/815919959","repostId":"1108448819","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4849,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3575950181915531","authorId":"3575950181915531","name":"njkk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6382201e8e84ccd3f8e89b9a28e74607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3575950181915531","idStr":"3575950181915531"},"content":"pls like","text":"pls like","html":"pls like"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":816067012,"gmtCreate":1630456193336,"gmtModify":1676530306799,"author":{"id":"3577525278195004","authorId":"3577525278195004","name":"DLiew","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577525278195004","idStr":"3577525278195004"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/816067012","repostId":"1138451590","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138451590","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630456044,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1138451590?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-01 08:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Suze Orman’s Favorite Investing Method Might Cost You Money","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138451590","media":"MoneyWise","summary":"Dollar-cost averaging usually loses out to another technique, a new study shows.\n\nThough Suze Orman ","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>Dollar-cost averaging usually loses out to another technique, a new study shows.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Though Suze Orman is famously quick with a quip, the personal finance celeb usually tells investors to go slow and steady.</p>\n<p>Orman is one of the biggest champions of dollar-cost averaging. Instead of investing all of your available money at once, this technique encourages you to invest equal portions on a regular basis over time.</p>\n<p>It’s a less risky way to get into the stock market, Orman says. But a new analysis shows that dumping all of your cash in as soon as possible typically generates the strongest returns.</p>\n<p>Here’s what the numbers have to say — and why the real answer isn’t always that simple.</p>\n<p><b>The case for dollar-cost averaging</b></p>\n<p>Orman, a best-selling author and TV personality, says dollar-cost averaging (DCA) “puts time, your money and the market on your side.”</p>\n<p>You might already be using DCA through a work retirement plan, like a 401(k), with a portion of each paycheck going into the account. And some popular investing apps allow people to use the same approach bysetting up automatic depositseach week.</p>\n<p>Say you decide to invest $100 per month into Gap stock. Today, that might buy four shares — but with DCA, you don’t make decisions based on how many shares you’re getting.</p>\n<p>If the price crashes by 50% next month, that $100 can now buy eight shares. Sounds like a bargain! And if the price doubles instead? To offset the risk of buying too high, you’re now making a conservative purchase of only two shares.</p>\n<p>“In times where the markets are very confusing and they're going up and down ... if you dollar-cost average and the markets go down and eventually the markets start to come back up again, you will make more money, most likely, than if you invested in one lump sum,” Orman said last year on herWoman & Money podcast.</p>\n<p>A new study, however, says it doesn’t usually work out this way.</p>\n<p><b>Quick off the starting block</b></p>\n<p>By sitting on extra cash for longer than necessary, Northwestern Mutual says, investors using DCA miss out on the growth that comes with more time in the market.</p>\n<p>First, the financial services company looked at the rolling, 10-year returns of a $1 million investment in U.S. markets. Then it looked at how much you would make if you had spread that $1 million investment evenly over 12 months before waiting for the remaining nine years.</p>\n<p>The company found that investing $1 million all at once generated better returns at the end of 10 years than dollar-cost averaging almost 75 percent of the time. That’s regardless of asset allocation.</p>\n<p>“Essentially, the data support the adage: Time in the market beats timing the market. Investing (a) windfall immediately allows an investor to capture returns with all of their capital at the outset,” thereportsays.</p>\n<p>In fact:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>With a 100% fixed-income portfolio, lump sum investing outperformed dollar-cost averaging 90% of the time.</li>\n <li>With a traditional 60/40 split, lump sum investing won 80% of the time.</li>\n <li>And with a 100% stock portfolio, lump sum investing outperformed 75% of the time.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>“Observations where lump-sum investing outperforms are associated with markets that trended higher over time, while dollar-cost averaging outperformed when the implementation occurred during markets that were trending lower,” the report says.</p>\n<p>“Historically, there are more years where markets trend higher, which also leads to lump-sum investing outperforming.”</p>\n<p><b>So what’s the right move?</b></p>\n<p>While history seems to support one investing style, the choice between lump sum and DCA isn’t an obvious one.</p>\n<p>“Considering only historical data when making this investing decision ignores the behavioral and emotional side of investing,” says Matt Wilbur, senior director of advisory investments at Northwestern Mutual.</p>\n<p>If the fear of investing a lot of money at once is keeping you from investing at all, you might benefit from theslow and steady method. DCA also beats holding on to your cash while you wait for a “good time” to invest, the study says.</p>\n<p>And despite Orman’s passion for dollar-cost averaging — she even has a DCA calculator on her website — the financial guru acknowledges she would have recommended going all in back in 2007 and 2008, when the markets were crashing.</p>\n<p>“But we're in uncertain times right now. So, if you don't know what to do, this is a way for you to invest, and in the long run, probably come out further ahead, especially if the markets are volatile,” she says on her podcast.</p>\n<p><b>Put your strategy into action</b></p>\n<p>Keep in mind, the decision about whether to use lump sum investing or DCA only applies if you actually have a lump sum to invest.</p>\n<p>If you do, make sure to spread your big investment around to minimize risk. Check out one oftoday’s popular robo-advisorsif you’re not sure how to craft a well-balanced, diversified portfolio.</p>\n<p>If you prefer the advantages of dollar-cost averaging, or you don’t have a lot of money to spare right now,plenty of appsallow you to automate small, regular investments.</p>\n<p>Some of these apps offer “fractional trading,” which allows you tobuy portions of expensive shareslike Apple or Tesla, no matter how small your monthly deposit is.</p>\n<p>Another option is to choose an app thatinvests your “spare change,”rounding up day-to-day purchases to the nearest dollar and investing the difference.</p>","source":"lsy1621813427262","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Suze Orman’s Favorite Investing Method Might Cost You Money</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSuze Orman’s Favorite Investing Method Might Cost You Money\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-01 08:27 GMT+8 <a href=https://moneywise.com/investing/investing-basics/why-suze-ormans-favorite-investing-method-might-cost-you-money><strong>MoneyWise</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Dollar-cost averaging usually loses out to another technique, a new study shows.\n\nThough Suze Orman is famously quick with a quip, the personal finance celeb usually tells investors to go slow and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://moneywise.com/investing/investing-basics/why-suze-ormans-favorite-investing-method-might-cost-you-money\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://moneywise.com/investing/investing-basics/why-suze-ormans-favorite-investing-method-might-cost-you-money","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138451590","content_text":"Dollar-cost averaging usually loses out to another technique, a new study shows.\n\nThough Suze Orman is famously quick with a quip, the personal finance celeb usually tells investors to go slow and steady.\nOrman is one of the biggest champions of dollar-cost averaging. Instead of investing all of your available money at once, this technique encourages you to invest equal portions on a regular basis over time.\nIt’s a less risky way to get into the stock market, Orman says. But a new analysis shows that dumping all of your cash in as soon as possible typically generates the strongest returns.\nHere’s what the numbers have to say — and why the real answer isn’t always that simple.\nThe case for dollar-cost averaging\nOrman, a best-selling author and TV personality, says dollar-cost averaging (DCA) “puts time, your money and the market on your side.”\nYou might already be using DCA through a work retirement plan, like a 401(k), with a portion of each paycheck going into the account. And some popular investing apps allow people to use the same approach bysetting up automatic depositseach week.\nSay you decide to invest $100 per month into Gap stock. Today, that might buy four shares — but with DCA, you don’t make decisions based on how many shares you’re getting.\nIf the price crashes by 50% next month, that $100 can now buy eight shares. Sounds like a bargain! And if the price doubles instead? To offset the risk of buying too high, you’re now making a conservative purchase of only two shares.\n“In times where the markets are very confusing and they're going up and down ... if you dollar-cost average and the markets go down and eventually the markets start to come back up again, you will make more money, most likely, than if you invested in one lump sum,” Orman said last year on herWoman & Money podcast.\nA new study, however, says it doesn’t usually work out this way.\nQuick off the starting block\nBy sitting on extra cash for longer than necessary, Northwestern Mutual says, investors using DCA miss out on the growth that comes with more time in the market.\nFirst, the financial services company looked at the rolling, 10-year returns of a $1 million investment in U.S. markets. Then it looked at how much you would make if you had spread that $1 million investment evenly over 12 months before waiting for the remaining nine years.\nThe company found that investing $1 million all at once generated better returns at the end of 10 years than dollar-cost averaging almost 75 percent of the time. That’s regardless of asset allocation.\n“Essentially, the data support the adage: Time in the market beats timing the market. Investing (a) windfall immediately allows an investor to capture returns with all of their capital at the outset,” thereportsays.\nIn fact:\n\nWith a 100% fixed-income portfolio, lump sum investing outperformed dollar-cost averaging 90% of the time.\nWith a traditional 60/40 split, lump sum investing won 80% of the time.\nAnd with a 100% stock portfolio, lump sum investing outperformed 75% of the time.\n\n“Observations where lump-sum investing outperforms are associated with markets that trended higher over time, while dollar-cost averaging outperformed when the implementation occurred during markets that were trending lower,” the report says.\n“Historically, there are more years where markets trend higher, which also leads to lump-sum investing outperforming.”\nSo what’s the right move?\nWhile history seems to support one investing style, the choice between lump sum and DCA isn’t an obvious one.\n“Considering only historical data when making this investing decision ignores the behavioral and emotional side of investing,” says Matt Wilbur, senior director of advisory investments at Northwestern Mutual.\nIf the fear of investing a lot of money at once is keeping you from investing at all, you might benefit from theslow and steady method. DCA also beats holding on to your cash while you wait for a “good time” to invest, the study says.\nAnd despite Orman’s passion for dollar-cost averaging — she even has a DCA calculator on her website — the financial guru acknowledges she would have recommended going all in back in 2007 and 2008, when the markets were crashing.\n“But we're in uncertain times right now. So, if you don't know what to do, this is a way for you to invest, and in the long run, probably come out further ahead, especially if the markets are volatile,” she says on her podcast.\nPut your strategy into action\nKeep in mind, the decision about whether to use lump sum investing or DCA only applies if you actually have a lump sum to invest.\nIf you do, make sure to spread your big investment around to minimize risk. Check out one oftoday’s popular robo-advisorsif you’re not sure how to craft a well-balanced, diversified portfolio.\nIf you prefer the advantages of dollar-cost averaging, or you don’t have a lot of money to spare right now,plenty of appsallow you to automate small, regular investments.\nSome of these apps offer “fractional trading,” which allows you tobuy portions of expensive shareslike Apple or Tesla, no matter how small your monthly deposit is.\nAnother option is to choose an app thatinvests your “spare change,”rounding up day-to-day purchases to the nearest dollar and investing the difference.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4841,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":834748327,"gmtCreate":1629844383269,"gmtModify":1676530146192,"author":{"id":"3577525278195004","authorId":"3577525278195004","name":"DLiew","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577525278195004","idStr":"3577525278195004"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/834748327","repostId":"2161818081","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2771,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":835383913,"gmtCreate":1629687577832,"gmtModify":1676530099645,"author":{"id":"3577525278195004","authorId":"3577525278195004","name":"DLiew","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577525278195004","idStr":"3577525278195004"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/835383913","repostId":"1176149106","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176149106","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629686871,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1176149106?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-23 10:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Want a new Tesla? You're gonna have to wait a while","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176149106","media":"CNN","summary":"New York (CNN Business)You're going to have to wait a long time if you want to buy just about any Te","content":"<p>New York (CNN Business)You're going to have to wait a long time if you want to buy just about any Tesla.</p>\n<p>Estimated delivery times on Tesla's website have been pushed back until late this year -- and in come cases next year -- for all but the upper-end versions of the Model 3 sedan and Model Y SUV.</p>\n<p>For the two most expensive cars, the Model S and Model X, buyers will have to wait until March or April 2022 for anything but the upper-end \"Plaid\" version of the Model S. For those most pricey Tesla models, the estimated delivery time is January or February.</p>\n<p>The upper-end \"performance\" version of the Model 3 can be delivered within four to six weeks, and that version of the Model X can be had in five to six weeks. But for less expensive models you'll have to wait until between November to January.</p>\n<p>\"The chip shortage issue isn't moderating to the extent that the Tesla bulls had hoped,\" said Dan Ives, tech analyst with Wedbush Securities and one of the analysts with a bullish forecast on Tesla shares. He said the delivery estimates have all been pushed back during the course of the last week.</p>\n<p>Tesla did not respond to questions about the longer delivery estimates. In late July, CEO Elon Musk warned investors about problems with the supply of computer chips and other parts, telling them, \"The chip supply is fundamentally the governing factor on our output. It is difficult for us to see how long this will last because ... this is out of our control essentially. It does seem like it's getting better, but it's hard to predict.\"</p>\n<p>As for other parts, he cautioned, \"For the rest of this year, our growth rates will be determined by the slowest part in our supply chain.\"</p>\n<p>Tesla shares have been struggling for much of 2021 after a 743% rise in value during 2020. Ives said he thinks that these new delivery estimates can only continue to weigh on the stock as investors worry the company will be able to hit market expectations of 900,000 vehicles delivered during the course of this year. Tesla has said it expects to have only more than a 50% increase on its 2020 deliveries of 500,000 cars.</p>\n<p>\"It's one thing to talk about futuristic projects,\" Ives said. \"But the investors are focused on deliveries and rising competition in the EV space. That's the overhang on the stock right now.\"</p>\n<p>These delivery estimates are for US sales, not sales in Europe or Asia, which are being sourced out of its plant in Shanghai.</p>\n<p>Earlier this year Tesla halted production of the Model S and Model X altogether in the first quarter, as it tried to keep production going on the better selling, less expensive models. It may be doing so again. But these delivery estimates show that Tesla is probably building only the more profitable versions of those less expensive models in the near term.</p>\n<p>Tesla did not respond to a request for comment about the longer delivery times.</p>\n<p>The problems with parts slowing production is by no means unique to Telsa. Toyota (TM), the world's largest automaker by number of vehicles sold, announced Thursday that it was cutting production as much as 60% in the North America and about 40% at plants in Japan in September.</p>\n<p>Volkswagen (VLKAF) is also weighing production cuts, and General Motors (GM), Ford (F) and Stellantis have all announced temporary plant shutdowns due to part shortages caused by rising covid cases globally, especially in Southeast Asia, where many suppliers have been forced to cut or halt production.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Want a new Tesla? You're gonna have to wait a while</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWant a new Tesla? You're gonna have to wait a while\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-23 10:47 GMT+8 <a href=https://edition.cnn.com/2021/08/20/business/tesla-delays-chip-shortage/index.html><strong>CNN</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>New York (CNN Business)You're going to have to wait a long time if you want to buy just about any Tesla.\nEstimated delivery times on Tesla's website have been pushed back until late this year -- and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/08/20/business/tesla-delays-chip-shortage/index.html\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/08/20/business/tesla-delays-chip-shortage/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176149106","content_text":"New York (CNN Business)You're going to have to wait a long time if you want to buy just about any Tesla.\nEstimated delivery times on Tesla's website have been pushed back until late this year -- and in come cases next year -- for all but the upper-end versions of the Model 3 sedan and Model Y SUV.\nFor the two most expensive cars, the Model S and Model X, buyers will have to wait until March or April 2022 for anything but the upper-end \"Plaid\" version of the Model S. For those most pricey Tesla models, the estimated delivery time is January or February.\nThe upper-end \"performance\" version of the Model 3 can be delivered within four to six weeks, and that version of the Model X can be had in five to six weeks. But for less expensive models you'll have to wait until between November to January.\n\"The chip shortage issue isn't moderating to the extent that the Tesla bulls had hoped,\" said Dan Ives, tech analyst with Wedbush Securities and one of the analysts with a bullish forecast on Tesla shares. He said the delivery estimates have all been pushed back during the course of the last week.\nTesla did not respond to questions about the longer delivery estimates. In late July, CEO Elon Musk warned investors about problems with the supply of computer chips and other parts, telling them, \"The chip supply is fundamentally the governing factor on our output. It is difficult for us to see how long this will last because ... this is out of our control essentially. It does seem like it's getting better, but it's hard to predict.\"\nAs for other parts, he cautioned, \"For the rest of this year, our growth rates will be determined by the slowest part in our supply chain.\"\nTesla shares have been struggling for much of 2021 after a 743% rise in value during 2020. Ives said he thinks that these new delivery estimates can only continue to weigh on the stock as investors worry the company will be able to hit market expectations of 900,000 vehicles delivered during the course of this year. Tesla has said it expects to have only more than a 50% increase on its 2020 deliveries of 500,000 cars.\n\"It's one thing to talk about futuristic projects,\" Ives said. \"But the investors are focused on deliveries and rising competition in the EV space. That's the overhang on the stock right now.\"\nThese delivery estimates are for US sales, not sales in Europe or Asia, which are being sourced out of its plant in Shanghai.\nEarlier this year Tesla halted production of the Model S and Model X altogether in the first quarter, as it tried to keep production going on the better selling, less expensive models. It may be doing so again. But these delivery estimates show that Tesla is probably building only the more profitable versions of those less expensive models in the near term.\nTesla did not respond to a request for comment about the longer delivery times.\nThe problems with parts slowing production is by no means unique to Telsa. Toyota (TM), the world's largest automaker by number of vehicles sold, announced Thursday that it was cutting production as much as 60% in the North America and about 40% at plants in Japan in September.\nVolkswagen (VLKAF) is also weighing production cuts, and General Motors (GM), Ford (F) and Stellantis have all announced temporary plant shutdowns due to part shortages caused by rising covid cases globally, especially in Southeast Asia, where many suppliers have been forced to cut or halt production.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3670,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}