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Smile31
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2024-09-03
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
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2023-12-15
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Smile31
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2022-07-10
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How did the Japanese economy suffer three decades of "loss" behind Abe's assassination?
7月8日,日本前首相安倍晋三遭遇枪击的消息震惊全世界。据央视报道,当地时间8日,日本前首相安倍晋三当天上午在奈良发表演讲时中枪 。据悉,安倍晋三在上救护车时还有意识,目前安倍晋三已经没有生命体征。日元
How did the Japanese economy suffer three decades of "loss" behind Abe's assassination?
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2022-07-09
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How did the Japanese economy suffer three decades of "loss" behind Abe's assassination?
7月8日,日本前首相安倍晋三遭遇枪击的消息震惊全世界。据央视报道,当地时间8日,日本前首相安倍晋三当天上午在奈良发表演讲时中枪 。据悉,安倍晋三在上救护车时还有意识,目前安倍晋三已经没有生命体征。日元
How did the Japanese economy suffer three decades of "loss" behind Abe's assassination?
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2022-07-08
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Smile31
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2022-07-07
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This article summarizes the key points from the minutes of last night's Federal Reserve meeting!
摘要:6月会上美联储官员认为,7月会议可能适合加息75个基点或50个基点;通胀降至2%需要时间,加息可能导致一段时间经济放缓,但充分就业的关键是降通胀;目前有高通胀根深蒂固的风险,担心5月CPI暗示通
This article summarizes the key points from the minutes of last night's Federal Reserve meeting!
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Smile31
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2022-07-06
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Foreign media headlines | Oil prices led the decline and commodities plummeted! Recession fears trigger knock-on effects
由于各国央行的紧缩货币政策和对经济衰退的担忧,大宗商品市场继续上周的行情,呈现下降趋势。 每盎司黄金价格为1784美元,创2022年1月以来的最低水平,连续第三周下跌。 当地时间5日,英国卫生大臣赛义德·贾维德和财政大臣里希·苏纳克因对首相约翰逊失去信心而从政府辞职。 贾维德在社交媒体表示,自己已向首相约翰逊递交辞呈。
Foreign media headlines | Oil prices led the decline and commodities plummeted! Recession fears trigger knock-on effects
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2022-07-05
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2022-07-03
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Smile31
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2022-07-02
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Last Night and This Morning | US stocks had a thrilling start to the second half of the year, with most popular Chinese concept stocks rising.
摘要:美股下半年首日迎来上涨,半导体板块逆势下跌;热门中概股大多走高,新能源汽车股高开低走;已故苹果联合创始人乔布斯被追授美国总统自由勋章;370亿美元大采购!三大航企齐出手,拟购入近300架空客飞机
Last Night and This Morning | US stocks had a thrilling start to the second half of the year, with most popular Chinese concept stocks rising.
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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a> 👍","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a> 👍","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/345451693904160","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5684,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":252066392895768,"gmtCreate":1702573516766,"gmtModify":1702573520803,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577532473997426","idStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$ </a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$ </a>","text":"$苹果(AAPL)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/48e59378c27d67b08fd3f833cece68fb","width":"1092","height":"1717"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/252066392895768","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5174,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9071080048,"gmtCreate":1657428902385,"gmtModify":1676536007100,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577532473997426","idStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9071080048","repostId":"1172335974","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172335974","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1657272279,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1172335974?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-08 17:24","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"How did the Japanese economy suffer three decades of \"loss\" behind Abe's assassination?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172335974","media":"风暴眼工作室","summary":"7月8日,日本前首相安倍晋三遭遇枪击的消息震惊全世界。据央视报道,当地时间8日,日本前首相安倍晋三当天上午在奈良发表演讲时中枪 。据悉,安倍晋三在上救护车时还有意识,目前安倍晋三已经没有生命体征。日元","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On July 8, the news that former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had been shot shocked the world.</p><p>According to CCTV, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot while giving a speech in Nara on the morning of the 8th local time. It is reported that Shinzo Abe was still conscious when he got into the ambulance, and he currently has no vital signs.</p><p>The yen exchange rate was also affected. As of 11:30 on July 8, the USD/JPY decline widened to 0.47% at 135.37, while the yen appreciated.</p><p>Why did the yen suddenly appreciate after Abe was assassinated? This may be related to the \"Abenomics\" that he promoted during his term. After Shinzo Abe took office at the end of 2012, he accelerated the implementation of a series of economic stimulus policies, the most notable of which was the loose monetary policy, which led to the accelerated depreciation of the yen.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the yen's continued decline has become more pronounced. On June 13, the yen fell below 135 yen to the dollar, hitting a new low in about 24 years. In the year since the beginning of 2021, the yen has depreciated significantly against the US dollar by more than 25%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73ac608c7438fa9083c60e6af1c6dfd9\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The continued sharp decline of traditional safe-haven currencies has led to a significant sell-off of Japanese bonds and yen assets.</p><p>Although Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated his view that the Bank of Japan must maintain its massive stimulus program to support the fragile economic recovery.</p><p>However, for ordinary Japanese people, it is still debatable whether the fragile economic recovery needs to be supported by a sharp depreciation of the yen. After all, as a major importer, Japan is 88% dependent on foreign energy and only 37% self-sufficient in food. The rise in commodity prices caused by the depreciation of the yen will directly affect the lives of citizens.</p><p>Especially after so many years of significant easing, Japan's average annual GDP growth rate has been less than 1% since the collapse of the Japanese economy in 1990.</p><p>While the housing market has been eased and prices have been raised, residents' disposable income has not been eased, leaving people somewhat lacking in confidence. After experiencing a \"lost decade,\" a \"lost twenty years,\" and a \"lost thirty years,\" Japan's lost eyes are heading towards the time dimension of Atlantis.</p><p>In the fourth decade, will Japan be able to make a comeback?</p><p><b>Abe and his \"Abenomics\"</b></p><p>Although Shinzo Abe resigned as prime minister in August 2020, the current sharp depreciation of the yen is closely linked to his \"Abenomics\".</p><p>At the end of 2012, Shinzo Abe once again served as Prime Minister of Japan, and immediately proposed a \"boosting the economy\" strategy, which was hyped up by the media as \"Abenomics\".</p><p>The so-called \"Abenomics\" is a combination of policies to solve Japan's economic problems through experimental monetary policy (QQE), proactive fiscal policy, and economic structural reforms. Including \"three major strategies\":</p><p>First, it proposed the largest quantitative easing (QE) monetary policy in Japan's history, with the central bank purchasing 7.5 trillion yen worth of Treasury Bond every month;</p><p>Secondly, the expansionary fiscal policy exceeded the previous government's total budget of 70 trillion yen;</p><p>Third, it encompasses a package of growth strategies, including the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), deregulation to stimulate private investment, and promote innovation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79ef0cf1ad82f6f4d2dbd2d9e5cde013\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Abenomics is the latest effort to address Japan's economic downturn since the 1990s. So how effective has the implementation been?</p><p>An analysis by Global Macroeconomic Speculation points out that Abenomics is a great economic experiment in which Japanese financiers and politicians broke down prejudices and used a three-pronged approach of structural adjustment, fiscal and monetary policy to increase Japan's potential economic growth rate and overcome deflation. The first three years of the experiment were quite successful.</p><p>The article also points out that \"Abenomics\" performed poorly from 2016 to 2020. Despite the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, some of Abenomic's goals were achieved, especially inflation expectations, the yen exchange rate, real interest rates, and stock prices. However, potential output growth during the same period was not good, proving that structural reforms were not being promoted effectively.</p><p>Zhang Jifeng, deputy director of the Institute of Japanese Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that Abe's achievements in economic governance are evident to all, but there are also some serious problems. The most serious problem is the difficult financial situation, and this situation has never changed.</p><p>Liu Yun, associate researcher at the Institute of Northeast Asian Studies of the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, believes that looking solely at Japan's GDP would lead to misunderstandings and the belief that Abenomics has not been very successful. However, overall, the Japanese economy is on an upward trend. For example, wages in Japan have increased and the profit growth rate of large corporations is good, so the Japanese economic situation has improved.</p><p><b>\"Loss\" began in 1990</b></p><p>The original intention of \"Abenomics\" was to save Japan's persistently sluggish economy. The \"lost decade\" was first proposed when the Japanese stock market bubble burst in 1990.</p><p>For more than a decade before the collapse of the bubble that devastated Japan, Japan was a \"miracle worker.\"</p><p>Starting with early labor-intensive enterprises such as cotton textiles to accumulate capital, and later with manufacturing as the core industry, actively expanding investment and introducing advanced foreign technologies, the country quickly rebuilt its industrial system from the post-war ruins.</p><p>By 1964, the Tokyo Olympics had become an important milestone in connecting Japan's economic development and transformation. Due to the demand for steel from large-scale infrastructure construction and the demand for color TVs for the opening of the Olympics, Japan's steel and electromechanical industries flourished, and Japan experienced a complete development stage from \"trading shirts for airplanes\" to \"Made in Japan\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d0a4f35b86afc5382004806076b2487\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 1965, Japan exported half of its steel to the United States, and in 1968, Japan became the world's second-largest economy after the United States.</p><p>At the same time, Japan has firmly grasped the new generation of industrial revolution, with automobiles, steel, telecommunications, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals completely dominating the US market, and Hitachi, NEC, Fujitsu, Mitsubishi, and Toshiba emerging as giants.</p><p>During the years of trade deficits between the United States and Japan, industry giants suffered losses year after year, and Intel was even on the verge of bankruptcy at one point.</p><p>Faced with the predicament of being overwhelmed by Japanese goods, the United States, disregarding face, launched a trade war that seems familiar to Chinese people today—</p><p>Starting in 1981, Japanese automobiles sold worldwide began to be subject to heavy tariffs and export quotas restricted by the United States.</p><p>Meanwhile, the United States imposed 100% tariffs on Japanese high-tech products such as computers and televisions, citing \"dumping practices\" by Japan. A lower export price limit was set for Japanese semiconductors, and a 100% punitive tariff was imposed on Japanese chips.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2325f7d267568d30d4ad4c0f6022d74e\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>US lawmakers live-stream smashing Japanese products</p><p>In addition, executives of Japanese companies were arrested on charges of \"industrial espionage,\" and Japan was accused by the United States of being a \"currency manipulator\" and stealing intellectual property from the United States. Japan was also required to increase imports of U.S. agricultural products, eliminate trade terms unfavorable to foreign companies, impose voluntary export restrictions on industries such as textiles, steel, televisions, and machine tools, while simultaneously relocating factories and upgrading industries.</p><p>While constantly accusing Japan of supporting its industrial policies through state support, the United States enacted a new trade law in 1988, invoking the \"Super 301\" clause—openly legislating to interfere in Japan's industrial and trade policies and forcing Japan to carry out institutional reforms.</p><p>In 1989, Japan and the United States began negotiations on the \"Japan-U.S. Structural Agreement,\" consulting on economic policies, systems, and corporate behavior, which prompted Japan to carry out open reforms in areas such as its circulation system and business practices: for example, regarding housing as a strategic industry and further opening up its circulation system. Further open up the domestic market and restructure the import and export system in accordance with the principle of free trade.</p><p>By 1989, the United States Trade Representative had initiated a total of 24 Section 301 investigations against Japan, almost all of which were concessions from the Japanese government.</p><p>At the same time, the yen was forced to appreciate sharply against the dollar due to the \"Plaza Accord\" reached in 1985 by the United States, Japan, West Germany, France, and the United Kingdom. Following Black Monday in October 1987, the yen appreciated to 120 yen per dollar, an increase of as much as 90% in 1988.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ab4dd9acfe04f8aab569cb046a73ff\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Plaza Agreement Signing Site</p><p>The sharp appreciation of the yen has dealt a devastating blow to Japan, an export-oriented economy. Production costs have risen sharply, and high-quality companies have begun to flee overseas. In order to cope with the currency crisis, the Japanese government has begun to cut interest rates sharply, hoping to \"provide money\" so that companies can invest and set up factories at low cost.</p><p>In reality, due to the excessively long return cycle for real industries, a large amount of yen lent at low interest rates was not invested in the real economy. The ample liquidity in the money market began to flow into the housing, stock, and luxury goods markets in large quantities as the yen appreciated sharply after the Plaza Accords.</p><p>Starting in 1986, Japan's rapidly expanding economic prosperity was known as the \"Heisei boom.\" At the end of 1985, the Nikkei 225 stock index closed at 13,083 points, and at the end of 1989, it closed at 38,916 points. In four years, the Nikkei 225 index rose by a cumulative 197.45%, and the total market capitalization of stocks continued to expand to 896 trillion yen, accounting for 60% of Japan's GDP that year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f5d38582a2e3123322a61e5b005f13f\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Japanese streets in the 1980s</p><p>Land prices in Tokyo skyrocketed, with the land price of the Japanese Emperor's Tokyo Imperial Palace exceeding the estimated land value of the entire country. In the Ginza area, a 10,000 yen bill thrown on the ground cannot buy the small piece of land it covers.</p><p>At the same time, the Japanese have become the world's largest consumer of luxury goods, sweeping up watch stores, jewelry stores, and wineries around the world. Foreign banks and securities companies are counting their money in the Japanese market.</p><p>A large number of stock index short options, which were completely at odds with economic reality, erupted when the bubble inflated to its peak.</p><p>In October 1990, Japan's five-year bull market ended, with the stock market plummeting by 63.24%, marking the largest drop in Japanese stock market history. The following year, the housing market plummeted by 65%, bankrupt companies emerged one after another, the number of unemployed people surged, and the wealth of the entire country shrank by nearly 50%.</p><p>At the same time, the short-term sharp recession has left countless ordinary people who did not have time to escape \"trapped\" in various capital investment targets, and a major economic reshuffle has transferred the wealth of the whole society to at least a few winners.</p><p>Since then, the Japanese economy has been in a prolonged slump.</p><p>The Nikkei average fell by more than 82% from a historical high of 38,957 on December 29, 1989, to a low of 6,994.9 on October 29, 2008. For the next four years, the Nikkei average remained hovering around 10,000 points.</p><p>Starting in the late 1990s, the \"lost decade\" of the Japanese economy began to appear in the newspapers, and the problem remains unsolved to this day.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ced67142e550e77f5f84c394cba59c8d\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>What exactly has Japan lost in the past thirty years?</b></p><p>In 2010, as the Japanese economy still showed no signs of improvement, the media began to refer to the \"lost twenty years\" of the Japanese economy.</p><p>In reality, \"twenty years\" is still not the end of Japan's economic downturn. Starting from the all-time high closing point of the Nikkei 225 index at 38,957, the index continued to decline, falling below 10,000 points several times until it stopped falling in 2017.</p><p>On July 7, 2022, the Nikkei 225 index closed at 26,490.53 points, still more than 10,000 points away from its highest point.</p><p>The \"Plaza Accord,\" which caused the yen to appreciate sharply, is considered by many to be the root cause of Japan's bubble economy, which triggered the Great Depression.</p><p>However, the criticisms of the Plaza Accords are not consistent in the analysis of this Great Depression. Former Japanese Deputy Minister of Finance Toyoo Gyoten even personally refuted this view.</p><p>Between 1985 and 1990, thanks to overseas investment driven by a strong yen, Japan's net overseas assets rose from over $1 trillion to over $3 trillion, which is what is known as \"there is another Japan besides Japan\"—</p><p>While the yen has appreciated by 300% in 10 years, there has been a huge increase in production and labor costs. In order to maintain their competitiveness, many Japanese companies have had to turn their attention overseas, which has led to a rapid outflow of Japanese capital.</p><p>The rapidly appreciating yen and the increasingly tense Japan-US trade war have also contributed to this outflow—a strong yen makes it easier for Japanese companies to invest in and acquire overseas companies, while building factories overseas can circumvent US sanctions on \"Made in Japan\".</p><p>From 1985 to 1990, Japanese companies conducted a total of 21 giant overseas mergers and acquisitions worth more than 50 billion yen.</p><p>In 1989, Mitsubishi bought Rockefeller Center for $1.4 billion, Panasonic bought Universal Pictures for $6 billion, and Sony bought Columbia Pictures for $3.4 billion—including the Spider-Man rights that Marvel has yet to reclaim.</p><p>The Japanese even had the ambition to buy the United States into \"Japan's 41st prefecture.\" Why does the city look so much like Tokyo from the 70th floor of the InterContinental Hotel in Los Angeles?</p><p>Because the Japanese bought half of the real estate here back then.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6420f38680bf983f828177b00418e180\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In his book \"Anger Across the Pacific,\" Japanese scholar Kan Ito wrote that some Japanese believe Japan will become the next \"superpower\" and that the government will lead its people to \"end the era of America.\"</p><p>However, these properties belong to giant corporations, conglomerates, speculators, and wealthy foreign businessmen, but they do not belong to the Japanese people.</p><p>In 2020, the Sankei Shimbun reported that the revenue of Japanese overseas subsidiaries had increased by 220% in the past 20 years, while according to OECD statistics, the per capita purchasing power in Japan in 2020 was only US$39,000, an increase of only 4% compared to 1990.</p><p><b>1. Income that remains unchanged for thirty years</b></p><p>After 1900, Japanese investment activities came to an abrupt halt.</p><p>Banks went bankrupt, factories closed down, and mortgages became a disaster, forcing banks rife with non-performing assets to merge and restructure. The sharply rising production costs caused a large number of businesses to go bankrupt, and ordinary people suffered the most—they were laid off in the wave of bankruptcies, their life savings evaporated in the bubble crisis, and they were burdened with heavy mortgages.</p><p>After the collapse of the lifetime employment system and seniority system, the \"corporate slave\" culture, which worked desperately to keep its job, did not originate from Japan's bubble crisis, but it solidified afterward—accepting the exploitation of competition and the gears that prioritize production efficiency became the most helpless choice for Japanese workers.</p><p>However, the tide of social development propelled the Japanese forward, but failed to bring them the rewards they deserved.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11648f82b27132391bb1a6cef2c3432a\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In February 2021, the \"Labor Statistics Survey\" released by Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare showed that the average monthly salary in Japan in 2020 was 318,299 yen, equivalent to about 19,600 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%, marking the largest drop in 12 years.</p><p>This figure was around 350,000 yuan in 1990, when the average annual income of Japanese people was 4.25 million yen. At the exchange rate at the time, the monthly salary was about 11,600 yuan.</p><p>Average annual income, which has remained stagnant for 30 consecutive years, has become Japan's most intense \"birth control pill\".</p><p><b>2. Irreversible aging</b></p><p>In 2020, Japan ranked 11th in the world in terms of total population, marking the first time it had fallen out of the top ten since 1950. From 1974 to 2020, Japan's birth rate dropped from 1.86% to 0.67%, and around 2008 it began to fall into 13 consecutive years of negative population growth.</p><p>Meanwhile, Japan has 36.4 million people aged 65 and above, accounting for 29.1% of the total population.</p><p>Japan's declining birthrate and aging population have led to a severe labor supply shortage and a slowdown in labor productivity growth, resulting in a continued slowdown in economic growth.</p><p>\"From 1961 to 2020, the growth rates of Japan's working-age population and labor productivity changed basically in sync with economic trends. While the average growth rate of Japan's working-age population remained at a high level of 1.6% and the labor productivity growth rate peaked at 8.4% from 1961 to 1975, the average real GDP growth rate also remained at a high level of 7.7%; from 1976 to 1988, the working-age population and labor productivity maintained low growth rates of 0.9% and 3.7% respectively, and the real GDP growth rate also dropped to 4.4%.\" From 1989 to 2020, the growth rates of the working-age population and labor productivity dropped sharply from 0.9% and 4.4% to -0.8% and 1.1%, respectively, while the real GDP growth rate dropped from 5.4% to -4.4%.</p><p>With the working population declining and tax revenue decreasing, the need for pension and other expenses is expanding rapidly. Since 1990, the number of people relying on pensions has been five times that of taxpayers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c92a0dfa8f71abcdb41b554124294a7\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"302\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 2004, Japan launched pension reform, raising taxes by 0.354% annually. By 2017, taxpayers' pension contributions had accounted for 18.3% of their annual income, becoming a heavy burden on the Japanese people.</p><p>Japan's ranking in the Human Development Index (which measures per capita GDP, education, and healthcare) fell from number one in the world in 1990 to nineteenth in 2020.</p><p>At the same time, the decline in expected income has led to a negative attitude towards life, low material desires, and a lack of motivation among young Japanese people, resulting in the emergence of a \"secluded generation\". According to the definition of Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, secluded people are people who stay at home for more than 6 months and have almost cut off contact with the outside world. According to data from the Cabinet Office's \"Living Conditions Survey\", the number of secluded people aged 15-39 and 40-64 reached 541,000 and 613,000 respectively.</p><p>The consumption and housing demand of the elderly is far lower than that of young people, and young people severely lack the desire to consume, making it difficult for total consumption to increase significantly, and Japan has fallen into a \"low-desire society\".</p><p><b>3. Lifetime QE, but consistently weak.</b></p><p>In 2021, Japan's GDP fell below the \"50s\" with a total GDP of $4,937.4 billion, but it still ranks as the world's third-largest economy, surpassing Europe, which doesn't seem to be bad.</p><p>In reality, Japan's GDP had already reached $5.55 trillion in 1995, when the ratio of Japan's GDP to the United States' GDP was 71.34%. In 2021, this ratio increased to 21.46%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0823be1f503a8cdff0d86e9ba57b90cf\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"231\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Compared to its past glory, Japan today is indeed in some difficulty.</p><p>Meanwhile, Japan's macro leverage ratio is also among the highest in the world. According to the latest data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), at the end of the second quarter of 2021, the macro leverage ratio among countries was 286.2% in the United States, 284.3% in the Eurozone, and 416.5% in Japan.</p><p>The massive amount of debt stems from Japan's decades-long quantitative easing.</p><p>quantitative easing is an innovation in Japan's financial sector.</p><p>In 1998, the Bank of Japan first began implementing a zero-interest-rate and quantitative easing policy, which regulates economic activity by controlling the money supply.</p><p>In 2013, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda launched a monetary policy stimulus plan to boost inflation.</p><p>Since 2013, the yen has continued to depreciate against the US dollar, and exports have achieved significant growth. Meanwhile, Japan's benchmark interest rate has been declining steadily, with the 10-year Treasury Bond rate even falling to negative numbers in 2016.</p><p>Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan began to purchase ETFs (exchange-traded funds) on a large scale, with an average annual ETF purchase volume of nearly 4 trillion yen. By 2021, the Bank of Japan held more than 80% of equity ETFs and more than 5% of the total market capitalization of the Tokyo Stock Exchange.</p><p>Although the Nikkei 225 index has strengthened from around 8,000 points in 2012, even breaking through the 30,000-point mark in February 2021, it still seems to be a mirage of bubble prosperity, because the massive amount of base money injected by the Bank of Japan has neither raised inflation nor boosted economic growth.</p><p>In terms of economic structure, apart from core basic raw materials, which still maintain a barrier advantage, Japan's other industries are almost stagnating. The markets in the automotive, shipbuilding, machine tool, and electronics industries are being divided up by countries such as the United States, China, and South Korea, with little achievement in emerging industries.</p><p>Currently, Japan has only 6 unicorn companies, far behind the 554, 180, 64, 43, and 26 companies in the United States, China, India, the United Kingdom, and Germany, all of which are valued at less than $2 billion.</p><p>Meanwhile, Japan's debt expanded rapidly. As of the end of December 2021, Japan's national debt, consisting of Treasury Bond, borrowings and short-term government securities, reached 1,218.4 trillion yen, and the per capita debt of Japanese citizens was approximately 9.71 million yen, equivalent to about 534,573 yuan.</p><p>However, while central banks in the US, UK, and Europe have all begun to tighten their stance, the Bank of Japan has not changed its loose monetary policy.</p><p><b>\"Counter-market\" easing, unlimited money printing, and consecutive declines in the yen</b></p><p>The yen's continuous decline began in March.</p><p>Following the release of the Federal Reserve's rate hike in March, which signaled that it would further increase rate hike and accelerate shrinking balance sheet, both the UK and Europe began to accelerate the tightening of monetary policy. However, the Bank of Japan did the opposite and insisted on maintaining its quantitative easing policy.</p><p>On March 28, the Bank of Japan issued a press release announcing that it would launch a \"continuous fixed-price market operation\" between March 29 and 31 to curb interest rate increases, which involves purchasing an unlimited amount of government bonds from private financial institutions at a specified interest rate.</p><p>On that day, the yen plummeted 1.38%.</p><p>On April 20, less than a month later, the Bank of Japan announced unlimited purchases of 10-year Treasury Bond to defend the 0.25% yield cap on the 10-year Japanese Treasury Bond, further driving the depreciation of the yen.</p><p>Some experts believe that because the depreciation of the yen is beneficial to Japan's export-oriented economy, the Bank of Japan has consistently used a loose monetary environment as an important means to boost market expectations. Especially now that the new fiscal year has just begun, the Bank of Japan is less likely to tighten monetary policy.</p><p>But can easing save the Japanese economy?</p><p>In reality, Japan's trade structure is unstable. Since the Abe administration took office and introduced unlimited stimulus policies, total exports have declined continuously from 2012 to 2015, and only maintained a trade surplus in 2016 and 2017.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b2490580bd25519041d5aef1bb5c3c0\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The recent surge in global crude oil and raw material prices, coupled with the depreciation of the yen, has increased costs for Japanese companies and broadened the channels for imported inflation. Meanwhile, according to data from the OECD's \"Value-Added Trade Statistics,\" Japan's domestic added value has fallen from 94% in 1995 to 83% in 2018, a decrease of 11%. It is becoming increasingly difficult for Japan's related high-value-added products and services to offset their ever-increasing production costs.</p><p>The only beneficiaries were domestic Japanese speculators. With the Federal Reserve's significant intervention, US Treasury yields continued to soar, and the interest rate differential between the US, Japan, and Treasury Bond became increasingly large. As a result, domestic speculators began to short the yen on a large scale, using the yen to buy US Treasury bonds for arbitrage.</p><p>What about ordinary people?</p><p>Rising prices have led to increased living costs and weakened consumer power, and the \"lost thirty years\" seem to be about to be postponed again. The depreciation of the yen, which the Bank of Japan has deemed \"beneficial to the economy,\" has never effectively boosted Japan's economic growth for many years. Instead, it has prevented the Japanese economy from escaping from large-scale monetary easing policies for more than a decade.</p><p>Thirty years ago, then-central bank governor Yasushi Mie No warned the government: A country must not survive by inflating economic bubbles, otherwise it will be a great harm to the country.</p><p>Shortly after he took office, Japan implemented a tight monetary policy, significantly increasing loan interest rates and proactively bursting the bubble. This hard landing plunged Japan into decades of depression, but it is often regarded by later generations as a decisive act of \"cutting off one's own arm\".</p><p>However, the car in front has overturned, and the rest is unknown.</p><p>Thirty years later, Japan still seems to be the same Japan.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1639703443321","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How did the Japanese economy suffer three decades of \"loss\" behind Abe's assassination?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow did the Japanese economy suffer three decades of \"loss\" behind Abe's assassination?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">风暴眼工作室</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-08 17:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On July 8, the news that former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had been shot shocked the world.</p><p>According to CCTV, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot while giving a speech in Nara on the morning of the 8th local time. It is reported that Shinzo Abe was still conscious when he got into the ambulance, and he currently has no vital signs.</p><p>The yen exchange rate was also affected. As of 11:30 on July 8, the USD/JPY decline widened to 0.47% at 135.37, while the yen appreciated.</p><p>Why did the yen suddenly appreciate after Abe was assassinated? This may be related to the \"Abenomics\" that he promoted during his term. After Shinzo Abe took office at the end of 2012, he accelerated the implementation of a series of economic stimulus policies, the most notable of which was the loose monetary policy, which led to the accelerated depreciation of the yen.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the yen's continued decline has become more pronounced. On June 13, the yen fell below 135 yen to the dollar, hitting a new low in about 24 years. In the year since the beginning of 2021, the yen has depreciated significantly against the US dollar by more than 25%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73ac608c7438fa9083c60e6af1c6dfd9\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The continued sharp decline of traditional safe-haven currencies has led to a significant sell-off of Japanese bonds and yen assets.</p><p>Although Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated his view that the Bank of Japan must maintain its massive stimulus program to support the fragile economic recovery.</p><p>However, for ordinary Japanese people, it is still debatable whether the fragile economic recovery needs to be supported by a sharp depreciation of the yen. After all, as a major importer, Japan is 88% dependent on foreign energy and only 37% self-sufficient in food. The rise in commodity prices caused by the depreciation of the yen will directly affect the lives of citizens.</p><p>Especially after so many years of significant easing, Japan's average annual GDP growth rate has been less than 1% since the collapse of the Japanese economy in 1990.</p><p>While the housing market has been eased and prices have been raised, residents' disposable income has not been eased, leaving people somewhat lacking in confidence. After experiencing a \"lost decade,\" a \"lost twenty years,\" and a \"lost thirty years,\" Japan's lost eyes are heading towards the time dimension of Atlantis.</p><p>In the fourth decade, will Japan be able to make a comeback?</p><p><b>Abe and his \"Abenomics\"</b></p><p>Although Shinzo Abe resigned as prime minister in August 2020, the current sharp depreciation of the yen is closely linked to his \"Abenomics\".</p><p>At the end of 2012, Shinzo Abe once again served as Prime Minister of Japan, and immediately proposed a \"boosting the economy\" strategy, which was hyped up by the media as \"Abenomics\".</p><p>The so-called \"Abenomics\" is a combination of policies to solve Japan's economic problems through experimental monetary policy (QQE), proactive fiscal policy, and economic structural reforms. Including \"three major strategies\":</p><p>First, it proposed the largest quantitative easing (QE) monetary policy in Japan's history, with the central bank purchasing 7.5 trillion yen worth of Treasury Bond every month;</p><p>Secondly, the expansionary fiscal policy exceeded the previous government's total budget of 70 trillion yen;</p><p>Third, it encompasses a package of growth strategies, including the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), deregulation to stimulate private investment, and promote innovation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79ef0cf1ad82f6f4d2dbd2d9e5cde013\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Abenomics is the latest effort to address Japan's economic downturn since the 1990s. So how effective has the implementation been?</p><p>An analysis by Global Macroeconomic Speculation points out that Abenomics is a great economic experiment in which Japanese financiers and politicians broke down prejudices and used a three-pronged approach of structural adjustment, fiscal and monetary policy to increase Japan's potential economic growth rate and overcome deflation. The first three years of the experiment were quite successful.</p><p>The article also points out that \"Abenomics\" performed poorly from 2016 to 2020. Despite the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, some of Abenomic's goals were achieved, especially inflation expectations, the yen exchange rate, real interest rates, and stock prices. However, potential output growth during the same period was not good, proving that structural reforms were not being promoted effectively.</p><p>Zhang Jifeng, deputy director of the Institute of Japanese Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that Abe's achievements in economic governance are evident to all, but there are also some serious problems. The most serious problem is the difficult financial situation, and this situation has never changed.</p><p>Liu Yun, associate researcher at the Institute of Northeast Asian Studies of the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, believes that looking solely at Japan's GDP would lead to misunderstandings and the belief that Abenomics has not been very successful. However, overall, the Japanese economy is on an upward trend. For example, wages in Japan have increased and the profit growth rate of large corporations is good, so the Japanese economic situation has improved.</p><p><b>\"Loss\" began in 1990</b></p><p>The original intention of \"Abenomics\" was to save Japan's persistently sluggish economy. The \"lost decade\" was first proposed when the Japanese stock market bubble burst in 1990.</p><p>For more than a decade before the collapse of the bubble that devastated Japan, Japan was a \"miracle worker.\"</p><p>Starting with early labor-intensive enterprises such as cotton textiles to accumulate capital, and later with manufacturing as the core industry, actively expanding investment and introducing advanced foreign technologies, the country quickly rebuilt its industrial system from the post-war ruins.</p><p>By 1964, the Tokyo Olympics had become an important milestone in connecting Japan's economic development and transformation. Due to the demand for steel from large-scale infrastructure construction and the demand for color TVs for the opening of the Olympics, Japan's steel and electromechanical industries flourished, and Japan experienced a complete development stage from \"trading shirts for airplanes\" to \"Made in Japan\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d0a4f35b86afc5382004806076b2487\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 1965, Japan exported half of its steel to the United States, and in 1968, Japan became the world's second-largest economy after the United States.</p><p>At the same time, Japan has firmly grasped the new generation of industrial revolution, with automobiles, steel, telecommunications, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals completely dominating the US market, and Hitachi, NEC, Fujitsu, Mitsubishi, and Toshiba emerging as giants.</p><p>During the years of trade deficits between the United States and Japan, industry giants suffered losses year after year, and Intel was even on the verge of bankruptcy at one point.</p><p>Faced with the predicament of being overwhelmed by Japanese goods, the United States, disregarding face, launched a trade war that seems familiar to Chinese people today—</p><p>Starting in 1981, Japanese automobiles sold worldwide began to be subject to heavy tariffs and export quotas restricted by the United States.</p><p>Meanwhile, the United States imposed 100% tariffs on Japanese high-tech products such as computers and televisions, citing \"dumping practices\" by Japan. A lower export price limit was set for Japanese semiconductors, and a 100% punitive tariff was imposed on Japanese chips.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2325f7d267568d30d4ad4c0f6022d74e\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>US lawmakers live-stream smashing Japanese products</p><p>In addition, executives of Japanese companies were arrested on charges of \"industrial espionage,\" and Japan was accused by the United States of being a \"currency manipulator\" and stealing intellectual property from the United States. Japan was also required to increase imports of U.S. agricultural products, eliminate trade terms unfavorable to foreign companies, impose voluntary export restrictions on industries such as textiles, steel, televisions, and machine tools, while simultaneously relocating factories and upgrading industries.</p><p>While constantly accusing Japan of supporting its industrial policies through state support, the United States enacted a new trade law in 1988, invoking the \"Super 301\" clause—openly legislating to interfere in Japan's industrial and trade policies and forcing Japan to carry out institutional reforms.</p><p>In 1989, Japan and the United States began negotiations on the \"Japan-U.S. Structural Agreement,\" consulting on economic policies, systems, and corporate behavior, which prompted Japan to carry out open reforms in areas such as its circulation system and business practices: for example, regarding housing as a strategic industry and further opening up its circulation system. Further open up the domestic market and restructure the import and export system in accordance with the principle of free trade.</p><p>By 1989, the United States Trade Representative had initiated a total of 24 Section 301 investigations against Japan, almost all of which were concessions from the Japanese government.</p><p>At the same time, the yen was forced to appreciate sharply against the dollar due to the \"Plaza Accord\" reached in 1985 by the United States, Japan, West Germany, France, and the United Kingdom. Following Black Monday in October 1987, the yen appreciated to 120 yen per dollar, an increase of as much as 90% in 1988.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ab4dd9acfe04f8aab569cb046a73ff\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Plaza Agreement Signing Site</p><p>The sharp appreciation of the yen has dealt a devastating blow to Japan, an export-oriented economy. Production costs have risen sharply, and high-quality companies have begun to flee overseas. In order to cope with the currency crisis, the Japanese government has begun to cut interest rates sharply, hoping to \"provide money\" so that companies can invest and set up factories at low cost.</p><p>In reality, due to the excessively long return cycle for real industries, a large amount of yen lent at low interest rates was not invested in the real economy. The ample liquidity in the money market began to flow into the housing, stock, and luxury goods markets in large quantities as the yen appreciated sharply after the Plaza Accords.</p><p>Starting in 1986, Japan's rapidly expanding economic prosperity was known as the \"Heisei boom.\" At the end of 1985, the Nikkei 225 stock index closed at 13,083 points, and at the end of 1989, it closed at 38,916 points. In four years, the Nikkei 225 index rose by a cumulative 197.45%, and the total market capitalization of stocks continued to expand to 896 trillion yen, accounting for 60% of Japan's GDP that year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f5d38582a2e3123322a61e5b005f13f\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Japanese streets in the 1980s</p><p>Land prices in Tokyo skyrocketed, with the land price of the Japanese Emperor's Tokyo Imperial Palace exceeding the estimated land value of the entire country. In the Ginza area, a 10,000 yen bill thrown on the ground cannot buy the small piece of land it covers.</p><p>At the same time, the Japanese have become the world's largest consumer of luxury goods, sweeping up watch stores, jewelry stores, and wineries around the world. Foreign banks and securities companies are counting their money in the Japanese market.</p><p>A large number of stock index short options, which were completely at odds with economic reality, erupted when the bubble inflated to its peak.</p><p>In October 1990, Japan's five-year bull market ended, with the stock market plummeting by 63.24%, marking the largest drop in Japanese stock market history. The following year, the housing market plummeted by 65%, bankrupt companies emerged one after another, the number of unemployed people surged, and the wealth of the entire country shrank by nearly 50%.</p><p>At the same time, the short-term sharp recession has left countless ordinary people who did not have time to escape \"trapped\" in various capital investment targets, and a major economic reshuffle has transferred the wealth of the whole society to at least a few winners.</p><p>Since then, the Japanese economy has been in a prolonged slump.</p><p>The Nikkei average fell by more than 82% from a historical high of 38,957 on December 29, 1989, to a low of 6,994.9 on October 29, 2008. For the next four years, the Nikkei average remained hovering around 10,000 points.</p><p>Starting in the late 1990s, the \"lost decade\" of the Japanese economy began to appear in the newspapers, and the problem remains unsolved to this day.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ced67142e550e77f5f84c394cba59c8d\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>What exactly has Japan lost in the past thirty years?</b></p><p>In 2010, as the Japanese economy still showed no signs of improvement, the media began to refer to the \"lost twenty years\" of the Japanese economy.</p><p>In reality, \"twenty years\" is still not the end of Japan's economic downturn. Starting from the all-time high closing point of the Nikkei 225 index at 38,957, the index continued to decline, falling below 10,000 points several times until it stopped falling in 2017.</p><p>On July 7, 2022, the Nikkei 225 index closed at 26,490.53 points, still more than 10,000 points away from its highest point.</p><p>The \"Plaza Accord,\" which caused the yen to appreciate sharply, is considered by many to be the root cause of Japan's bubble economy, which triggered the Great Depression.</p><p>However, the criticisms of the Plaza Accords are not consistent in the analysis of this Great Depression. Former Japanese Deputy Minister of Finance Toyoo Gyoten even personally refuted this view.</p><p>Between 1985 and 1990, thanks to overseas investment driven by a strong yen, Japan's net overseas assets rose from over $1 trillion to over $3 trillion, which is what is known as \"there is another Japan besides Japan\"—</p><p>While the yen has appreciated by 300% in 10 years, there has been a huge increase in production and labor costs. In order to maintain their competitiveness, many Japanese companies have had to turn their attention overseas, which has led to a rapid outflow of Japanese capital.</p><p>The rapidly appreciating yen and the increasingly tense Japan-US trade war have also contributed to this outflow—a strong yen makes it easier for Japanese companies to invest in and acquire overseas companies, while building factories overseas can circumvent US sanctions on \"Made in Japan\".</p><p>From 1985 to 1990, Japanese companies conducted a total of 21 giant overseas mergers and acquisitions worth more than 50 billion yen.</p><p>In 1989, Mitsubishi bought Rockefeller Center for $1.4 billion, Panasonic bought Universal Pictures for $6 billion, and Sony bought Columbia Pictures for $3.4 billion—including the Spider-Man rights that Marvel has yet to reclaim.</p><p>The Japanese even had the ambition to buy the United States into \"Japan's 41st prefecture.\" Why does the city look so much like Tokyo from the 70th floor of the InterContinental Hotel in Los Angeles?</p><p>Because the Japanese bought half of the real estate here back then.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6420f38680bf983f828177b00418e180\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In his book \"Anger Across the Pacific,\" Japanese scholar Kan Ito wrote that some Japanese believe Japan will become the next \"superpower\" and that the government will lead its people to \"end the era of America.\"</p><p>However, these properties belong to giant corporations, conglomerates, speculators, and wealthy foreign businessmen, but they do not belong to the Japanese people.</p><p>In 2020, the Sankei Shimbun reported that the revenue of Japanese overseas subsidiaries had increased by 220% in the past 20 years, while according to OECD statistics, the per capita purchasing power in Japan in 2020 was only US$39,000, an increase of only 4% compared to 1990.</p><p><b>1. Income that remains unchanged for thirty years</b></p><p>After 1900, Japanese investment activities came to an abrupt halt.</p><p>Banks went bankrupt, factories closed down, and mortgages became a disaster, forcing banks rife with non-performing assets to merge and restructure. The sharply rising production costs caused a large number of businesses to go bankrupt, and ordinary people suffered the most—they were laid off in the wave of bankruptcies, their life savings evaporated in the bubble crisis, and they were burdened with heavy mortgages.</p><p>After the collapse of the lifetime employment system and seniority system, the \"corporate slave\" culture, which worked desperately to keep its job, did not originate from Japan's bubble crisis, but it solidified afterward—accepting the exploitation of competition and the gears that prioritize production efficiency became the most helpless choice for Japanese workers.</p><p>However, the tide of social development propelled the Japanese forward, but failed to bring them the rewards they deserved.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11648f82b27132391bb1a6cef2c3432a\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In February 2021, the \"Labor Statistics Survey\" released by Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare showed that the average monthly salary in Japan in 2020 was 318,299 yen, equivalent to about 19,600 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%, marking the largest drop in 12 years.</p><p>This figure was around 350,000 yuan in 1990, when the average annual income of Japanese people was 4.25 million yen. At the exchange rate at the time, the monthly salary was about 11,600 yuan.</p><p>Average annual income, which has remained stagnant for 30 consecutive years, has become Japan's most intense \"birth control pill\".</p><p><b>2. Irreversible aging</b></p><p>In 2020, Japan ranked 11th in the world in terms of total population, marking the first time it had fallen out of the top ten since 1950. From 1974 to 2020, Japan's birth rate dropped from 1.86% to 0.67%, and around 2008 it began to fall into 13 consecutive years of negative population growth.</p><p>Meanwhile, Japan has 36.4 million people aged 65 and above, accounting for 29.1% of the total population.</p><p>Japan's declining birthrate and aging population have led to a severe labor supply shortage and a slowdown in labor productivity growth, resulting in a continued slowdown in economic growth.</p><p>\"From 1961 to 2020, the growth rates of Japan's working-age population and labor productivity changed basically in sync with economic trends. While the average growth rate of Japan's working-age population remained at a high level of 1.6% and the labor productivity growth rate peaked at 8.4% from 1961 to 1975, the average real GDP growth rate also remained at a high level of 7.7%; from 1976 to 1988, the working-age population and labor productivity maintained low growth rates of 0.9% and 3.7% respectively, and the real GDP growth rate also dropped to 4.4%.\" From 1989 to 2020, the growth rates of the working-age population and labor productivity dropped sharply from 0.9% and 4.4% to -0.8% and 1.1%, respectively, while the real GDP growth rate dropped from 5.4% to -4.4%.</p><p>With the working population declining and tax revenue decreasing, the need for pension and other expenses is expanding rapidly. Since 1990, the number of people relying on pensions has been five times that of taxpayers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c92a0dfa8f71abcdb41b554124294a7\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"302\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 2004, Japan launched pension reform, raising taxes by 0.354% annually. By 2017, taxpayers' pension contributions had accounted for 18.3% of their annual income, becoming a heavy burden on the Japanese people.</p><p>Japan's ranking in the Human Development Index (which measures per capita GDP, education, and healthcare) fell from number one in the world in 1990 to nineteenth in 2020.</p><p>At the same time, the decline in expected income has led to a negative attitude towards life, low material desires, and a lack of motivation among young Japanese people, resulting in the emergence of a \"secluded generation\". According to the definition of Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, secluded people are people who stay at home for more than 6 months and have almost cut off contact with the outside world. According to data from the Cabinet Office's \"Living Conditions Survey\", the number of secluded people aged 15-39 and 40-64 reached 541,000 and 613,000 respectively.</p><p>The consumption and housing demand of the elderly is far lower than that of young people, and young people severely lack the desire to consume, making it difficult for total consumption to increase significantly, and Japan has fallen into a \"low-desire society\".</p><p><b>3. Lifetime QE, but consistently weak.</b></p><p>In 2021, Japan's GDP fell below the \"50s\" with a total GDP of $4,937.4 billion, but it still ranks as the world's third-largest economy, surpassing Europe, which doesn't seem to be bad.</p><p>In reality, Japan's GDP had already reached $5.55 trillion in 1995, when the ratio of Japan's GDP to the United States' GDP was 71.34%. In 2021, this ratio increased to 21.46%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0823be1f503a8cdff0d86e9ba57b90cf\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"231\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Compared to its past glory, Japan today is indeed in some difficulty.</p><p>Meanwhile, Japan's macro leverage ratio is also among the highest in the world. According to the latest data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), at the end of the second quarter of 2021, the macro leverage ratio among countries was 286.2% in the United States, 284.3% in the Eurozone, and 416.5% in Japan.</p><p>The massive amount of debt stems from Japan's decades-long quantitative easing.</p><p>quantitative easing is an innovation in Japan's financial sector.</p><p>In 1998, the Bank of Japan first began implementing a zero-interest-rate and quantitative easing policy, which regulates economic activity by controlling the money supply.</p><p>In 2013, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda launched a monetary policy stimulus plan to boost inflation.</p><p>Since 2013, the yen has continued to depreciate against the US dollar, and exports have achieved significant growth. Meanwhile, Japan's benchmark interest rate has been declining steadily, with the 10-year Treasury Bond rate even falling to negative numbers in 2016.</p><p>Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan began to purchase ETFs (exchange-traded funds) on a large scale, with an average annual ETF purchase volume of nearly 4 trillion yen. By 2021, the Bank of Japan held more than 80% of equity ETFs and more than 5% of the total market capitalization of the Tokyo Stock Exchange.</p><p>Although the Nikkei 225 index has strengthened from around 8,000 points in 2012, even breaking through the 30,000-point mark in February 2021, it still seems to be a mirage of bubble prosperity, because the massive amount of base money injected by the Bank of Japan has neither raised inflation nor boosted economic growth.</p><p>In terms of economic structure, apart from core basic raw materials, which still maintain a barrier advantage, Japan's other industries are almost stagnating. The markets in the automotive, shipbuilding, machine tool, and electronics industries are being divided up by countries such as the United States, China, and South Korea, with little achievement in emerging industries.</p><p>Currently, Japan has only 6 unicorn companies, far behind the 554, 180, 64, 43, and 26 companies in the United States, China, India, the United Kingdom, and Germany, all of which are valued at less than $2 billion.</p><p>Meanwhile, Japan's debt expanded rapidly. As of the end of December 2021, Japan's national debt, consisting of Treasury Bond, borrowings and short-term government securities, reached 1,218.4 trillion yen, and the per capita debt of Japanese citizens was approximately 9.71 million yen, equivalent to about 534,573 yuan.</p><p>However, while central banks in the US, UK, and Europe have all begun to tighten their stance, the Bank of Japan has not changed its loose monetary policy.</p><p><b>\"Counter-market\" easing, unlimited money printing, and consecutive declines in the yen</b></p><p>The yen's continuous decline began in March.</p><p>Following the release of the Federal Reserve's rate hike in March, which signaled that it would further increase rate hike and accelerate shrinking balance sheet, both the UK and Europe began to accelerate the tightening of monetary policy. However, the Bank of Japan did the opposite and insisted on maintaining its quantitative easing policy.</p><p>On March 28, the Bank of Japan issued a press release announcing that it would launch a \"continuous fixed-price market operation\" between March 29 and 31 to curb interest rate increases, which involves purchasing an unlimited amount of government bonds from private financial institutions at a specified interest rate.</p><p>On that day, the yen plummeted 1.38%.</p><p>On April 20, less than a month later, the Bank of Japan announced unlimited purchases of 10-year Treasury Bond to defend the 0.25% yield cap on the 10-year Japanese Treasury Bond, further driving the depreciation of the yen.</p><p>Some experts believe that because the depreciation of the yen is beneficial to Japan's export-oriented economy, the Bank of Japan has consistently used a loose monetary environment as an important means to boost market expectations. Especially now that the new fiscal year has just begun, the Bank of Japan is less likely to tighten monetary policy.</p><p>But can easing save the Japanese economy?</p><p>In reality, Japan's trade structure is unstable. Since the Abe administration took office and introduced unlimited stimulus policies, total exports have declined continuously from 2012 to 2015, and only maintained a trade surplus in 2016 and 2017.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b2490580bd25519041d5aef1bb5c3c0\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The recent surge in global crude oil and raw material prices, coupled with the depreciation of the yen, has increased costs for Japanese companies and broadened the channels for imported inflation. Meanwhile, according to data from the OECD's \"Value-Added Trade Statistics,\" Japan's domestic added value has fallen from 94% in 1995 to 83% in 2018, a decrease of 11%. It is becoming increasingly difficult for Japan's related high-value-added products and services to offset their ever-increasing production costs.</p><p>The only beneficiaries were domestic Japanese speculators. With the Federal Reserve's significant intervention, US Treasury yields continued to soar, and the interest rate differential between the US, Japan, and Treasury Bond became increasingly large. As a result, domestic speculators began to short the yen on a large scale, using the yen to buy US Treasury bonds for arbitrage.</p><p>What about ordinary people?</p><p>Rising prices have led to increased living costs and weakened consumer power, and the \"lost thirty years\" seem to be about to be postponed again. The depreciation of the yen, which the Bank of Japan has deemed \"beneficial to the economy,\" has never effectively boosted Japan's economic growth for many years. Instead, it has prevented the Japanese economy from escaping from large-scale monetary easing policies for more than a decade.</p><p>Thirty years ago, then-central bank governor Yasushi Mie No warned the government: A country must not survive by inflating economic bubbles, otherwise it will be a great harm to the country.</p><p>Shortly after he took office, Japan implemented a tight monetary policy, significantly increasing loan interest rates and proactively bursting the bubble. This hard landing plunged Japan into decades of depression, but it is often regarded by later generations as a decisive act of \"cutting off one's own arm\".</p><p>However, the car in front has overturned, and the rest is unknown.</p><p>Thirty years later, Japan still seems to be the same Japan.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vyE5FKltsfEpcN7v5P6r4w\">风暴眼工作室</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab6491f7a764c5c5f68017952b8c2931","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vyE5FKltsfEpcN7v5P6r4w","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172335974","content_text":"7月8日,日本前首相安倍晋三遭遇枪击的消息震惊全世界。据央视报道,当地时间8日,日本前首相安倍晋三当天上午在奈良发表演讲时中枪 。据悉,安倍晋三在上救护车时还有意识,目前安倍晋三已经没有生命体征。日元汇率也受到了影响,截至7月8日11:30,美元兑日元跌幅扩大至0.47%,报135.37,日元有所升值。安倍遇刺,日元为何会突然升值?或许与其任期内力主推动的“安倍经济学”有关。安倍晋三2012年底上台后加速实施的一系列刺激经济政策,最值得注目的就是宽松货币政策,日元汇率开始加速贬值。今年以来,日元汇率持续下跌态势更加明显。6月13日,日元兑美元汇率一度跌破135日元兑换1美元关口,创下约24年的新低。而从2021年初至今的一年多时间内,日元相对美元已经大幅贬值超过25%。作为传统避险货币持续大跌,让日债和日元资产开始被大幅抛售。虽然日本央行行长黑田东彦重申了他的观点,即日本央行必须维持其大规模刺激计划,以支撑脆弱的经济复苏。但对于普通日本人,脆弱的经济复苏是否需要用日元的大幅贬值来支撑还是值得商榷,毕竟日本作为一个进口大国,能源对外依存度高达88%,粮食自给率仅有37%。日元贬值带来的大宗商品价格抬升,将直接影响市民的生活。尤其是大幅宽松了这么多年,可从1990年日本经济崩溃以来,日本平均年GDP增长率不足1%。宽高了房产、宽起了物价,独独没有宽起来居民的可支配收入,人们多少缺乏点信心。在已经经历了“失落的十年”、\"失落的二十年\"、“失落的三十年”之后,日本的失落眼看着要奔向亚特兰蒂斯的那个时间维度去了。第四个十年,日本又是否能绝地翻盘呢?安倍和他的“安倍经济学”虽然安倍晋三在2020年8月就已经辞任首相,但日元如今的大幅贬值却和他的“安倍经济学”联系紧密。2012年底,安倍晋三再次担任日本首相,随即抛出“拼经济”路线,被媒体热炒为“安倍经济学”。所谓“安倍经济学”,是通过实验性质的货币政策(简称QQE)、积极财政政策和经济结构改革来解决日本经济问题的政策组合。包括“三大策略”:其一,提出日本史上最大规模的量化宽松(QE)货币政策,央行每月购买国债7.5万亿日元;其二,突破前任政府预算总额70万亿日元的扩张性财政政策;其三,囊括《跨太平洋战略经济伙伴协定》(TPP)、放松管制以唤起民间投资和促进创新等在内的一揽子增长战略。安倍经济学是为了解决1990年代以后日本经济不断低迷而做出的最新努力。那么实施效果如何呢?全球宏观投机的一篇分析文章指出,安倍经济学是一个伟大的经济实验,日本金融家和政治家打破成见,用结构调整、财政和货币政策三管齐下的方法提升日本潜在经济增长率,克服通货紧缩。实验的前三年,获得了相当成功。文章同时也指出,“安倍经济学”2016到2020年则表现暗淡。新冠疫情冲击下部分安倍经济学的目标得以实现,尤其是通胀预期、日元汇率、真实利率和股票价格等,但是同期的潜在产出成长并不佳,证明了结构改革推进不力。中国社会科学院日本研究所副所长张季风认为,安倍在经济治理上的成绩大家有目共睹,但是也有较为严重的问题。其中最严重的问题就是财政状况困难,这个局面始终没有得到改变。中国现代国际关系研究院东北亚研究所副研究员刘云认为,若仅从日本GDP来看,会有所误解,认为安倍经济学不太成功。但如果从整体上看,日本经济是一个向上的姿态,例如日本的工资有增加、大企业利润增速不错,所以日本经济形势是有所好转的。“失落”始于1990“安倍经济学”的初衷是为了挽救日本持续低迷的经济。而“失落的十年”最早被提出,则是1990年日本股市泡沫破灭。在这场让日本一蹶不振的泡沫大破灭之前的十数年,日本曾是“缔造奇迹的国家”。从早期的棉纺织等劳动密集型企业开始积累资本,再到后来以制造业为核心产业,积极扩大投资、引进国外先进技术,从战后的废墟里迅速重建起本国的工业体系。到1964年,东京奥运会更是成为衔接日本经济发展转型的重要标志,由于大规模基建对钢铁的需求以及奥运会开幕对彩电的需求,日本的钢铁、机电行业蓬勃发展,日本经历了一个完整的“用衬衫换飞机”到“日本制造”的发展阶段。1965年,日本输出美国的钢铁占到了美国进口总量一半,1968年,日本成为了仅次美国的世界第二大经济体。与此同时,日本牢牢抓住了新一代的产业革命,汽车、钢铁、电信、半导体、制药全面制霸美国市场,日立、NEC、富士通、三菱和东芝群雄并起。而美国在当年对日的连年贸易赤字中,产业巨头们一片连年亏损,英特尔甚至一度濒临倒闭。在被日货打得找不着北的窘境之下,美国不顾脸面地发起了一场国人如今看起来很眼熟的贸易战——从1981年开始,行销全球的日系汽车开始被美国课以重税,并且在出口额度上被加以限制。同时,美国以日方“存在倾销行为”为由对日本的电脑、电视等高科技产品征收100%的关税,日本的半导体被设置出口价格下限、日本的芯片被征收100%惩罚性关税。美国议员直播砸碎日本产品此外,日系企业的高管被以“产业间谍罪”为名拘捕,日本被美国指责为“汇率操纵国”、从美国窃取知识产权,并被要求加大对美国农产品的进口力度、取消对外企不利的贸易条款、让日本在纺织品、钢铁、电视和机床等行业都实行自愿出口限制,同时进行工厂转移和产业升级……在不断指责日本通过国家扶持产业政策的同时,美国却在1988年出台新的贸易法,启用“超级301”条款——公然立法干预日本的产业与贸易政策,迫使日本进行制度性改革。1989年日美开始“日美结构协议”谈判,就经济政策、制度及企业行为等进行磋商,促使日本在流通体制、商业惯例等方面进行开放性改革:例如把住房作为战略性产业,进一步开放流通体制;进一步开放国内市场,按照自由贸易的原则重组进出口体制。截至1989年,美国贸易代表总计向日本发起了24例301条款案件调查,几乎全部由日本政府做出了让步。同时,由于1985年美国、日本、联邦德国、法国和英国达成的“广场协议”,日元兑美元汇率被迫大幅升值。1987年10月的“黑色星期一”之后,日元升值到120日元/美元,1988年度升幅高达90%。广场协议签订现场大幅升值的日元对以出口型经济为主的日本造成了毁灭性的打击,生产成本急剧上涨、优质企业开始逃向海外,为了应对汇率危机,日本政府开始大幅降息,寄希望于“发钱”让企业可以低成本去投资办厂。可实际上,由于实业回报周期过长,低利率贷出大量的日元并没有被投入到到实体经济,货币市场的充裕流动性,随着日元在广场协议后大幅升值的“强势”开始大量流入房市、股市以及奢侈品市场。1986 年开始,日本飞速膨胀的经济繁荣被称为“平成景气”,1985年末日经225股价指数收于13083点, 1989年末收于38916点,四年间日经225指数累计上涨197.45%,并且股票总市值继续膨胀至896万亿日元,占日本当年国民生产总值的60%。80年代的日本街头东京的地价则是坐地飞升,日本天皇的东京皇居土地价格就超过了整个法国的土地估价;银座地区一张1万日元的纸币扔在地上,也买不到它所覆盖的那一小片土地。同时,日本人成了全球最大的奢侈品消费国,他们横扫全球的手表店、珠宝店以及红酒酒庄,外资银行与证券公司在日本市场数钱数到手软。与经济现实完全背离的大批股指沽空期权之后,是泡沫膨胀到极致时爆发。1990年10月,日本长达5年的牛市结束,股市暴跌63.24%,创造了日本股市历史上最大的下跌幅度。次年,楼市暴跌65%,破产企业层出不穷,失业人群人数激增,整个国家财富缩水了近50%。同时,短期的大幅衰退让无数来不及抽身的普通人被各项资本投资标的物“套牢”,一场经济大洗牌让全社会的财富被转移至少数赢家手中。此后,日本经济开始长期处于低迷状态。日经平均指数由1989年12月29日历史高位38957,到2008年10月29日最低6994.9,累积跌幅逾82%,其后4年日经平均指数仍然始终徘徊在10,000点左右。也就是从90年代末开始,日本经济“失去的十年””开始不断见诸报端,并至今难题未解。三十年里,日本具体失去了什么?2010年,由于日本经济仍无起色,媒体开始提出日本经济“失去的二十年”。实际上,“二十年”依旧不是日本经济颓靡的终点。自38957的日经225指数历史最高收盘点位开始算起,此后一路下行,期间多次跌至1万点一下,直至2017年才止跌。2022年7月7日收盘,日经225指数收盘报26490.53点,距其最高点仍有一万多点的差距。那个让日元急剧升值的“广场协议”,被许多人认为是日本泡沫经济引发大萧条的根源。但对于这次大萧条的分析中,对于广场协议的批判并不是一致的。原日本大藏省副相行天丰雄甚至亲自出面驳斥过这一观点。因为在1985年~1990年,借强势日元下的海外投资,日本海外净资产从1万多亿美元上升到3万多亿美元,也就是所谓的“日本之外,还有一个日本”——日元10年升值300%的同时,是生产成本与人力成本的巨幅抬升。为了保持自己的竞争力,大量日企不得不将目光投向海外,这使得日企资本急速外流。升值迅速的日元与日渐焦灼的日美贸易战也助推了这一外流——强势的日元方便日企投资收购海外企业,同时在外建厂可以绕开美国对“日本制造”的制裁。从1985年到1990年,日本企业总共进行了21起500亿日元以上的巨型海外并购案。1989年,三菱公司14亿美元买下的洛克菲勒中心、松下60亿美元买下的美国环球影业、索尼公司以34亿美元买下哥伦比亚影片公司——其中包括漫威如今都没能收回的蜘蛛侠版权;日本人甚至雄心壮志地要将美国买成“日本的第四十一个县”,为什么从洛杉矶洲际酒店70楼看去的城市那么像东京?因为当年日本人买下了这里一半的地产。日本学者伊藤感在《横跨太平洋的愤怒》中写到,一些日本人相信日本会成为下一个\"超级大国\",政府会带领民众\"终结美国的时代\"。只是这些地产,属于巨企、属于财团、属于投机者、属于外籍富商,但独独不属于日本的人民。2020年《产经新闻》报道,日本海外当地法人的营收在近20年内增长了220%,而按照OECD的统计数据,日本2020年的人均购买力水平仅为3.9万美元,比1990年仅增长了4%。1、三十年不动的收入1900年以后,日本的投资活动戛然而止。银行破产、工厂倒闭、房贷成灾,充斥着不良资产的银行不得不合并重组;剧烈抬升的生产成本让企业大批倒闭,最惨的还是普通人——在倒闭潮中被裁员、一辈子的积蓄在泡沫危机中挥发、还要背上沉重的房贷。而在终身雇佣制和年功序列崩解后,为了保住工作而拼命加班,“社畜”文化虽然不诞生于日本的泡沫危机,但却在这之后得到了固化——接受竞争和生产效率至上的齿轮对自己的压榨,成了日本打工人最无奈的选择。但社会发展的洪流推进着日本人前进,却没能给他们应有的回报。2021年2月,日本厚生劳动省发布的“勤劳统计调查”显示,日本2020年的人均月薪为31万8299日元,约合1.96万元人民币,同比减少1.2%,创下12年以来最大降幅。而这一数字在1990年时是35万元左右,当时的日本人平均年收入是425万日元,以当时的汇率计算,月薪约合1.16万人民币。连续30年“原地踏步”的平均年收入,成了日本最猛烈的“避孕药”。2、难以逆转的老龄化2020年,日本总人口居世界11位,是1950年以来首次跌出前十。从1974到2020年,日本出生率由1.86%降至0.67%,在2008年左右开始陷入连续13年的人口负增长。同时,日本65岁及以上老年人口达3640万,在总人口中所占比例达29.1%。少子老龄化,导致日本陷入严重的劳动力供给不足、劳动生产率增速趋缓,进而使经济增速持续放缓:“1961-2020年日本劳动年龄人口增速、劳动生产率增速与经济走势基本同步变化。伴随1961-1975年日本劳动年龄人口平均增速维持在1.6%的高位、劳动生产率增速达到8.4%峰值,实际GDP平均增速也维持在7.7%的高位;1976-1988年劳动年龄人口、劳动生产率分别维持0.9%、3.7%的低速增长,实际GDP增速也降至4.4%;1989-2020年劳动年龄人口、劳动生产率增速分别从0.9%、4.4%大幅降至-0.8%、1.1%,实际GDP增速从5.4%降至-4.4%。”在劳动人口下降,税收不断减少的情况下,需要支出的养老金等费用却在急速扩大,自1990年起,依附养老金生活的人数已经是纳税人的5倍。2004年日本启动了养老金改革,每年以0.354%的涨幅提高税收,到2017年纳税人缴纳的养老金已占到个人年收入的18.3%,成了日本民众沉重的负担。日本人类发展指数的排名(测量人均GDP,教育,以及医疗),则从1990年的世界第一掉落至2020年的世界第十九。同时,日本年轻人因预期收入下降而形成的生活态度消极、物质欲望低下、缺乏奋斗动力的风气,由此产生“蛰居族”。根据日本厚生劳动省定义,蛰居族为持续6个月以上待在家里不出门,几乎和外界断绝联系的人群,根据日本内阁府《生活状况相关调查》数据,15-39岁、40-64岁人口蛰居族分别达54.1、61.3万人。老年人的消费和购房需求远低于年轻人,年轻人又严重缺乏消费欲望,使得总消费难以大幅提升,日本陷入“低欲望社会”。3、终身QE,却始终乏力2021年,日本以49374亿美元的GDP总量跌下“5字头”,但依旧是傲视欧洲,名列世界第三大经济体的经济大国,看起来似乎并不差。但实际上,日本1995年GDP就已经达到了5.55万亿美元,当时日本GDP与美国GDP的比率是71.34%,2021年,这个比率变成了21.46%。与过往的辉煌相比,如今的日本确实有些困窘。同时,日本的宏观杠杆率也在全球领先。国际清算银行(BIS)最新数据显示,2021 年二季度末,各国宏观杠杆率中美国为286.2%、欧元区为284.3%,而日本为416.5%。庞大的债务规模来源于日本数十年的量化宽松。量化宽松,是日本在融领域的一个创新。1998年,日本央行本央行第一次开始实行零利率和量化宽松政策,即通过对通货供应量的控制来调节经济活动。2013年,日本央行行长黑田东彦推出提振通胀的货币政策刺激计划。从2013年开始,日元兑美元持续贬值,出口实现了较大幅度增长;同时日本基准利率一路下行,十年期国债利率在2016年甚至下降至负数。同时日本央行开始大规模购入ETF(交易所交易基金),年均ETF购买规模接近4万亿日元,到2021年,日本央行持有股票占股票ETF的80%以上,占东京证券交易所总市值的5%以上。虽然日经225指数从2012年的八千点附近,一路走强,在2021年2月甚至突破了三万点大关,但这似乎仍然是一场镜花水月的泡沫化繁荣,因为日本央行注入的巨量基础货币既没有拉高通胀率,也没有拉动经济增长。经济结构上,日本除核心基础原材料依然保持壁垒优势,其他产业几乎都在裹足不前。汽车、造船、机床、电子产业的市场都在被美、中、韩等国瓜分,新兴产业上更是少有建树。目前日本独角兽企业数量仅6家,大幅落后于美、中、印、英、德、的554、180、64、43、26家,且估值均小于20亿美元。同时,日本的债务急剧扩张,截至2021年12月底,由国债、借款及政府短期证券构成的日本国家债务达到1218.4万亿日元,日本国民人均负债约为971万日元,约合人民币53万4573元。但在美、英、欧等央行均已开始紧缩步伐的当下,日本央行却仍旧未改变宽松的货币政策。“逆市”宽松、无限量印钞、日元连跌日元的连跌始于3月份。在3月美联储加息落地,并释放后续将加大加息幅度和加快缩表的信号后,英、欧均开始加速收紧货币政策,但日本央行却反其道而行之,坚持维持量化宽松政策。3 月 28 日,日本央行发布新闻稿宣布,将在3月 29-31 日间,发动抑制利率上升的“连续性指定价格市场操作”措施,即以指定的利率,无限量从民间金融机构手中收购公债。当天,日元汇率重挫1.38%。4月20日,不到一个月的时间内日本央行又宣布无限量购买10年期国债,以捍卫10年期日本国债0.25%的收益率上限,再度推动了日元的贬值。有专家认为,由于日元贬值有利于日本以出口为导向的经济,日本央行一直将宽松的货币环境作为提振市场预期的重要手段,尤其是在刚刚进入新财年的当下,日本央行更难有可能收紧货币政策。但宽松能挽救日本经济吗?实际上,日本贸易结构并不稳定,自安倍政府上台推出无限刺激政策后,出口总额在2012~2015年连续下降,仅2016、2017年两年保持了贸易顺差状态。近期全球原油和原材料价格飙升,日元贬值更是抬高了日本企业的成本,拓宽了输入型通胀的渠道。同时,根据OECD发布的“附加值贸易统计”数据显示,日本国内创造的附加值已经从1995年的94%降至2018年的83%,降低了11%,日本相关高附加值产品和服务已经越来越难抵消其不断提升的生产成本。唯一得益的,是日本本土的投机者们,随着美联储大幅落地,美债收益率持续飙涨,美日国债利差已经越来越大,于是本土的投机者们开始大规模沽空日元,借日元买美债的套利。对于老百姓来说呢?物价提升导致生活成本上升、消费力削弱,“失落的三十年”似乎又要延期——被日本央行认定“有利于经济”的日元贬值,多年来从未有效提振过日本的经济增长,反而让日本经济十数年来无法从大规模金融缓和政策中脱出。三十年前,时任央行行长三重野康告诫政府:一个国家绝对不能靠吹经济泡沫生存,否则将是国家的大害。于是在他上台不久后日本就实行了紧缩性的货币政策,大幅度提高了贷款利率,主动刺破泡沫。这场硬着陆让日本陷入了数十年的萧条,却也常被后人视为“壮士断腕”的果决。只是前车已覆,后未知更。三十年过去,日本似乎还是那个日本。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6585,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9073694117,"gmtCreate":1657331975039,"gmtModify":1676535992757,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577532473997426","idStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9073694117","repostId":"1172335974","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172335974","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1657272279,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1172335974?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-08 17:24","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"How did the Japanese economy suffer three decades of \"loss\" behind Abe's assassination?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172335974","media":"风暴眼工作室","summary":"7月8日,日本前首相安倍晋三遭遇枪击的消息震惊全世界。据央视报道,当地时间8日,日本前首相安倍晋三当天上午在奈良发表演讲时中枪 。据悉,安倍晋三在上救护车时还有意识,目前安倍晋三已经没有生命体征。日元","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On July 8, the news that former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had been shot shocked the world.</p><p>According to CCTV, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot while giving a speech in Nara on the morning of the 8th local time. It is reported that Shinzo Abe was still conscious when he got into the ambulance, and he currently has no vital signs.</p><p>The yen exchange rate was also affected. As of 11:30 on July 8, the USD/JPY decline widened to 0.47% at 135.37, while the yen appreciated.</p><p>Why did the yen suddenly appreciate after Abe was assassinated? This may be related to the \"Abenomics\" that he promoted during his term. After Shinzo Abe took office at the end of 2012, he accelerated the implementation of a series of economic stimulus policies, the most notable of which was the loose monetary policy, which led to the accelerated depreciation of the yen.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the yen's continued decline has become more pronounced. On June 13, the yen fell below 135 yen to the dollar, hitting a new low in about 24 years. In the year since the beginning of 2021, the yen has depreciated significantly against the US dollar by more than 25%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73ac608c7438fa9083c60e6af1c6dfd9\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The continued sharp decline of traditional safe-haven currencies has led to a significant sell-off of Japanese bonds and yen assets.</p><p>Although Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated his view that the Bank of Japan must maintain its massive stimulus program to support the fragile economic recovery.</p><p>However, for ordinary Japanese people, it is still debatable whether the fragile economic recovery needs to be supported by a sharp depreciation of the yen. After all, as a major importer, Japan is 88% dependent on foreign energy and only 37% self-sufficient in food. The rise in commodity prices caused by the depreciation of the yen will directly affect the lives of citizens.</p><p>Especially after so many years of significant easing, Japan's average annual GDP growth rate has been less than 1% since the collapse of the Japanese economy in 1990.</p><p>While the housing market has been eased and prices have been raised, residents' disposable income has not been eased, leaving people somewhat lacking in confidence. After experiencing a \"lost decade,\" a \"lost twenty years,\" and a \"lost thirty years,\" Japan's lost eyes are heading towards the time dimension of Atlantis.</p><p>In the fourth decade, will Japan be able to make a comeback?</p><p><b>Abe and his \"Abenomics\"</b></p><p>Although Shinzo Abe resigned as prime minister in August 2020, the current sharp depreciation of the yen is closely linked to his \"Abenomics\".</p><p>At the end of 2012, Shinzo Abe once again served as Prime Minister of Japan, and immediately proposed a \"boosting the economy\" strategy, which was hyped up by the media as \"Abenomics\".</p><p>The so-called \"Abenomics\" is a combination of policies to solve Japan's economic problems through experimental monetary policy (QQE), proactive fiscal policy, and economic structural reforms. Including \"three major strategies\":</p><p>First, it proposed the largest quantitative easing (QE) monetary policy in Japan's history, with the central bank purchasing 7.5 trillion yen worth of Treasury Bond every month;</p><p>Secondly, the expansionary fiscal policy exceeded the previous government's total budget of 70 trillion yen;</p><p>Third, it encompasses a package of growth strategies, including the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), deregulation to stimulate private investment, and promote innovation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79ef0cf1ad82f6f4d2dbd2d9e5cde013\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Abenomics is the latest effort to address Japan's economic downturn since the 1990s. So how effective has the implementation been?</p><p>An analysis by Global Macroeconomic Speculation points out that Abenomics is a great economic experiment in which Japanese financiers and politicians broke down prejudices and used a three-pronged approach of structural adjustment, fiscal and monetary policy to increase Japan's potential economic growth rate and overcome deflation. The first three years of the experiment were quite successful.</p><p>The article also points out that \"Abenomics\" performed poorly from 2016 to 2020. Despite the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, some of Abenomic's goals were achieved, especially inflation expectations, the yen exchange rate, real interest rates, and stock prices. However, potential output growth during the same period was not good, proving that structural reforms were not being promoted effectively.</p><p>Zhang Jifeng, deputy director of the Institute of Japanese Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that Abe's achievements in economic governance are evident to all, but there are also some serious problems. The most serious problem is the difficult financial situation, and this situation has never changed.</p><p>Liu Yun, associate researcher at the Institute of Northeast Asian Studies of the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, believes that looking solely at Japan's GDP would lead to misunderstandings and the belief that Abenomics has not been very successful. However, overall, the Japanese economy is on an upward trend. For example, wages in Japan have increased and the profit growth rate of large corporations is good, so the Japanese economic situation has improved.</p><p><b>\"Loss\" began in 1990</b></p><p>The original intention of \"Abenomics\" was to save Japan's persistently sluggish economy. The \"lost decade\" was first proposed when the Japanese stock market bubble burst in 1990.</p><p>For more than a decade before the collapse of the bubble that devastated Japan, Japan was a \"miracle worker.\"</p><p>Starting with early labor-intensive enterprises such as cotton textiles to accumulate capital, and later with manufacturing as the core industry, actively expanding investment and introducing advanced foreign technologies, the country quickly rebuilt its industrial system from the post-war ruins.</p><p>By 1964, the Tokyo Olympics had become an important milestone in connecting Japan's economic development and transformation. Due to the demand for steel from large-scale infrastructure construction and the demand for color TVs for the opening of the Olympics, Japan's steel and electromechanical industries flourished, and Japan experienced a complete development stage from \"trading shirts for airplanes\" to \"Made in Japan\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d0a4f35b86afc5382004806076b2487\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 1965, Japan exported half of its steel to the United States, and in 1968, Japan became the world's second-largest economy after the United States.</p><p>At the same time, Japan has firmly grasped the new generation of industrial revolution, with automobiles, steel, telecommunications, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals completely dominating the US market, and Hitachi, NEC, Fujitsu, Mitsubishi, and Toshiba emerging as giants.</p><p>During the years of trade deficits between the United States and Japan, industry giants suffered losses year after year, and Intel was even on the verge of bankruptcy at one point.</p><p>Faced with the predicament of being overwhelmed by Japanese goods, the United States, disregarding face, launched a trade war that seems familiar to Chinese people today—</p><p>Starting in 1981, Japanese automobiles sold worldwide began to be subject to heavy tariffs and export quotas restricted by the United States.</p><p>Meanwhile, the United States imposed 100% tariffs on Japanese high-tech products such as computers and televisions, citing \"dumping practices\" by Japan. A lower export price limit was set for Japanese semiconductors, and a 100% punitive tariff was imposed on Japanese chips.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2325f7d267568d30d4ad4c0f6022d74e\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>US lawmakers live-stream smashing Japanese products</p><p>In addition, executives of Japanese companies were arrested on charges of \"industrial espionage,\" and Japan was accused by the United States of being a \"currency manipulator\" and stealing intellectual property from the United States. Japan was also required to increase imports of U.S. agricultural products, eliminate trade terms unfavorable to foreign companies, impose voluntary export restrictions on industries such as textiles, steel, televisions, and machine tools, while simultaneously relocating factories and upgrading industries.</p><p>While constantly accusing Japan of supporting its industrial policies through state support, the United States enacted a new trade law in 1988, invoking the \"Super 301\" clause—openly legislating to interfere in Japan's industrial and trade policies and forcing Japan to carry out institutional reforms.</p><p>In 1989, Japan and the United States began negotiations on the \"Japan-U.S. Structural Agreement,\" consulting on economic policies, systems, and corporate behavior, which prompted Japan to carry out open reforms in areas such as its circulation system and business practices: for example, regarding housing as a strategic industry and further opening up its circulation system. Further open up the domestic market and restructure the import and export system in accordance with the principle of free trade.</p><p>By 1989, the United States Trade Representative had initiated a total of 24 Section 301 investigations against Japan, almost all of which were concessions from the Japanese government.</p><p>At the same time, the yen was forced to appreciate sharply against the dollar due to the \"Plaza Accord\" reached in 1985 by the United States, Japan, West Germany, France, and the United Kingdom. Following Black Monday in October 1987, the yen appreciated to 120 yen per dollar, an increase of as much as 90% in 1988.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ab4dd9acfe04f8aab569cb046a73ff\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Plaza Agreement Signing Site</p><p>The sharp appreciation of the yen has dealt a devastating blow to Japan, an export-oriented economy. Production costs have risen sharply, and high-quality companies have begun to flee overseas. In order to cope with the currency crisis, the Japanese government has begun to cut interest rates sharply, hoping to \"provide money\" so that companies can invest and set up factories at low cost.</p><p>In reality, due to the excessively long return cycle for real industries, a large amount of yen lent at low interest rates was not invested in the real economy. The ample liquidity in the money market began to flow into the housing, stock, and luxury goods markets in large quantities as the yen appreciated sharply after the Plaza Accords.</p><p>Starting in 1986, Japan's rapidly expanding economic prosperity was known as the \"Heisei boom.\" At the end of 1985, the Nikkei 225 stock index closed at 13,083 points, and at the end of 1989, it closed at 38,916 points. In four years, the Nikkei 225 index rose by a cumulative 197.45%, and the total market capitalization of stocks continued to expand to 896 trillion yen, accounting for 60% of Japan's GDP that year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f5d38582a2e3123322a61e5b005f13f\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Japanese streets in the 1980s</p><p>Land prices in Tokyo skyrocketed, with the land price of the Japanese Emperor's Tokyo Imperial Palace exceeding the estimated land value of the entire country. In the Ginza area, a 10,000 yen bill thrown on the ground cannot buy the small piece of land it covers.</p><p>At the same time, the Japanese have become the world's largest consumer of luxury goods, sweeping up watch stores, jewelry stores, and wineries around the world. Foreign banks and securities companies are counting their money in the Japanese market.</p><p>A large number of stock index short options, which were completely at odds with economic reality, erupted when the bubble inflated to its peak.</p><p>In October 1990, Japan's five-year bull market ended, with the stock market plummeting by 63.24%, marking the largest drop in Japanese stock market history. The following year, the housing market plummeted by 65%, bankrupt companies emerged one after another, the number of unemployed people surged, and the wealth of the entire country shrank by nearly 50%.</p><p>At the same time, the short-term sharp recession has left countless ordinary people who did not have time to escape \"trapped\" in various capital investment targets, and a major economic reshuffle has transferred the wealth of the whole society to at least a few winners.</p><p>Since then, the Japanese economy has been in a prolonged slump.</p><p>The Nikkei average fell by more than 82% from a historical high of 38,957 on December 29, 1989, to a low of 6,994.9 on October 29, 2008. For the next four years, the Nikkei average remained hovering around 10,000 points.</p><p>Starting in the late 1990s, the \"lost decade\" of the Japanese economy began to appear in the newspapers, and the problem remains unsolved to this day.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ced67142e550e77f5f84c394cba59c8d\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>What exactly has Japan lost in the past thirty years?</b></p><p>In 2010, as the Japanese economy still showed no signs of improvement, the media began to refer to the \"lost twenty years\" of the Japanese economy.</p><p>In reality, \"twenty years\" is still not the end of Japan's economic downturn. Starting from the all-time high closing point of the Nikkei 225 index at 38,957, the index continued to decline, falling below 10,000 points several times until it stopped falling in 2017.</p><p>On July 7, 2022, the Nikkei 225 index closed at 26,490.53 points, still more than 10,000 points away from its highest point.</p><p>The \"Plaza Accord,\" which caused the yen to appreciate sharply, is considered by many to be the root cause of Japan's bubble economy, which triggered the Great Depression.</p><p>However, the criticisms of the Plaza Accords are not consistent in the analysis of this Great Depression. Former Japanese Deputy Minister of Finance Toyoo Gyoten even personally refuted this view.</p><p>Between 1985 and 1990, thanks to overseas investment driven by a strong yen, Japan's net overseas assets rose from over $1 trillion to over $3 trillion, which is what is known as \"there is another Japan besides Japan\"—</p><p>While the yen has appreciated by 300% in 10 years, there has been a huge increase in production and labor costs. In order to maintain their competitiveness, many Japanese companies have had to turn their attention overseas, which has led to a rapid outflow of Japanese capital.</p><p>The rapidly appreciating yen and the increasingly tense Japan-US trade war have also contributed to this outflow—a strong yen makes it easier for Japanese companies to invest in and acquire overseas companies, while building factories overseas can circumvent US sanctions on \"Made in Japan\".</p><p>From 1985 to 1990, Japanese companies conducted a total of 21 giant overseas mergers and acquisitions worth more than 50 billion yen.</p><p>In 1989, Mitsubishi bought Rockefeller Center for $1.4 billion, Panasonic bought Universal Pictures for $6 billion, and Sony bought Columbia Pictures for $3.4 billion—including the Spider-Man rights that Marvel has yet to reclaim.</p><p>The Japanese even had the ambition to buy the United States into \"Japan's 41st prefecture.\" Why does the city look so much like Tokyo from the 70th floor of the InterContinental Hotel in Los Angeles?</p><p>Because the Japanese bought half of the real estate here back then.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6420f38680bf983f828177b00418e180\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In his book \"Anger Across the Pacific,\" Japanese scholar Kan Ito wrote that some Japanese believe Japan will become the next \"superpower\" and that the government will lead its people to \"end the era of America.\"</p><p>However, these properties belong to giant corporations, conglomerates, speculators, and wealthy foreign businessmen, but they do not belong to the Japanese people.</p><p>In 2020, the Sankei Shimbun reported that the revenue of Japanese overseas subsidiaries had increased by 220% in the past 20 years, while according to OECD statistics, the per capita purchasing power in Japan in 2020 was only US$39,000, an increase of only 4% compared to 1990.</p><p><b>1. Income that remains unchanged for thirty years</b></p><p>After 1900, Japanese investment activities came to an abrupt halt.</p><p>Banks went bankrupt, factories closed down, and mortgages became a disaster, forcing banks rife with non-performing assets to merge and restructure. The sharply rising production costs caused a large number of businesses to go bankrupt, and ordinary people suffered the most—they were laid off in the wave of bankruptcies, their life savings evaporated in the bubble crisis, and they were burdened with heavy mortgages.</p><p>After the collapse of the lifetime employment system and seniority system, the \"corporate slave\" culture, which worked desperately to keep its job, did not originate from Japan's bubble crisis, but it solidified afterward—accepting the exploitation of competition and the gears that prioritize production efficiency became the most helpless choice for Japanese workers.</p><p>However, the tide of social development propelled the Japanese forward, but failed to bring them the rewards they deserved.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11648f82b27132391bb1a6cef2c3432a\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In February 2021, the \"Labor Statistics Survey\" released by Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare showed that the average monthly salary in Japan in 2020 was 318,299 yen, equivalent to about 19,600 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%, marking the largest drop in 12 years.</p><p>This figure was around 350,000 yuan in 1990, when the average annual income of Japanese people was 4.25 million yen. At the exchange rate at the time, the monthly salary was about 11,600 yuan.</p><p>Average annual income, which has remained stagnant for 30 consecutive years, has become Japan's most intense \"birth control pill\".</p><p><b>2. Irreversible aging</b></p><p>In 2020, Japan ranked 11th in the world in terms of total population, marking the first time it had fallen out of the top ten since 1950. From 1974 to 2020, Japan's birth rate dropped from 1.86% to 0.67%, and around 2008 it began to fall into 13 consecutive years of negative population growth.</p><p>Meanwhile, Japan has 36.4 million people aged 65 and above, accounting for 29.1% of the total population.</p><p>Japan's declining birthrate and aging population have led to a severe labor supply shortage and a slowdown in labor productivity growth, resulting in a continued slowdown in economic growth.</p><p>\"From 1961 to 2020, the growth rates of Japan's working-age population and labor productivity changed basically in sync with economic trends. While the average growth rate of Japan's working-age population remained at a high level of 1.6% and the labor productivity growth rate peaked at 8.4% from 1961 to 1975, the average real GDP growth rate also remained at a high level of 7.7%; from 1976 to 1988, the working-age population and labor productivity maintained low growth rates of 0.9% and 3.7% respectively, and the real GDP growth rate also dropped to 4.4%.\" From 1989 to 2020, the growth rates of the working-age population and labor productivity dropped sharply from 0.9% and 4.4% to -0.8% and 1.1%, respectively, while the real GDP growth rate dropped from 5.4% to -4.4%.</p><p>With the working population declining and tax revenue decreasing, the need for pension and other expenses is expanding rapidly. Since 1990, the number of people relying on pensions has been five times that of taxpayers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c92a0dfa8f71abcdb41b554124294a7\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"302\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 2004, Japan launched pension reform, raising taxes by 0.354% annually. By 2017, taxpayers' pension contributions had accounted for 18.3% of their annual income, becoming a heavy burden on the Japanese people.</p><p>Japan's ranking in the Human Development Index (which measures per capita GDP, education, and healthcare) fell from number one in the world in 1990 to nineteenth in 2020.</p><p>At the same time, the decline in expected income has led to a negative attitude towards life, low material desires, and a lack of motivation among young Japanese people, resulting in the emergence of a \"secluded generation\". According to the definition of Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, secluded people are people who stay at home for more than 6 months and have almost cut off contact with the outside world. According to data from the Cabinet Office's \"Living Conditions Survey\", the number of secluded people aged 15-39 and 40-64 reached 541,000 and 613,000 respectively.</p><p>The consumption and housing demand of the elderly is far lower than that of young people, and young people severely lack the desire to consume, making it difficult for total consumption to increase significantly, and Japan has fallen into a \"low-desire society\".</p><p><b>3. Lifetime QE, but consistently weak.</b></p><p>In 2021, Japan's GDP fell below the \"50s\" with a total GDP of $4,937.4 billion, but it still ranks as the world's third-largest economy, surpassing Europe, which doesn't seem to be bad.</p><p>In reality, Japan's GDP had already reached $5.55 trillion in 1995, when the ratio of Japan's GDP to the United States' GDP was 71.34%. In 2021, this ratio increased to 21.46%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0823be1f503a8cdff0d86e9ba57b90cf\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"231\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Compared to its past glory, Japan today is indeed in some difficulty.</p><p>Meanwhile, Japan's macro leverage ratio is also among the highest in the world. According to the latest data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), at the end of the second quarter of 2021, the macro leverage ratio among countries was 286.2% in the United States, 284.3% in the Eurozone, and 416.5% in Japan.</p><p>The massive amount of debt stems from Japan's decades-long quantitative easing.</p><p>quantitative easing is an innovation in Japan's financial sector.</p><p>In 1998, the Bank of Japan first began implementing a zero-interest-rate and quantitative easing policy, which regulates economic activity by controlling the money supply.</p><p>In 2013, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda launched a monetary policy stimulus plan to boost inflation.</p><p>Since 2013, the yen has continued to depreciate against the US dollar, and exports have achieved significant growth. Meanwhile, Japan's benchmark interest rate has been declining steadily, with the 10-year Treasury Bond rate even falling to negative numbers in 2016.</p><p>Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan began to purchase ETFs (exchange-traded funds) on a large scale, with an average annual ETF purchase volume of nearly 4 trillion yen. By 2021, the Bank of Japan held more than 80% of equity ETFs and more than 5% of the total market capitalization of the Tokyo Stock Exchange.</p><p>Although the Nikkei 225 index has strengthened from around 8,000 points in 2012, even breaking through the 30,000-point mark in February 2021, it still seems to be a mirage of bubble prosperity, because the massive amount of base money injected by the Bank of Japan has neither raised inflation nor boosted economic growth.</p><p>In terms of economic structure, apart from core basic raw materials, which still maintain a barrier advantage, Japan's other industries are almost stagnating. The markets in the automotive, shipbuilding, machine tool, and electronics industries are being divided up by countries such as the United States, China, and South Korea, with little achievement in emerging industries.</p><p>Currently, Japan has only 6 unicorn companies, far behind the 554, 180, 64, 43, and 26 companies in the United States, China, India, the United Kingdom, and Germany, all of which are valued at less than $2 billion.</p><p>Meanwhile, Japan's debt expanded rapidly. As of the end of December 2021, Japan's national debt, consisting of Treasury Bond, borrowings and short-term government securities, reached 1,218.4 trillion yen, and the per capita debt of Japanese citizens was approximately 9.71 million yen, equivalent to about 534,573 yuan.</p><p>However, while central banks in the US, UK, and Europe have all begun to tighten their stance, the Bank of Japan has not changed its loose monetary policy.</p><p><b>\"Counter-market\" easing, unlimited money printing, and consecutive declines in the yen</b></p><p>The yen's continuous decline began in March.</p><p>Following the release of the Federal Reserve's rate hike in March, which signaled that it would further increase rate hike and accelerate shrinking balance sheet, both the UK and Europe began to accelerate the tightening of monetary policy. However, the Bank of Japan did the opposite and insisted on maintaining its quantitative easing policy.</p><p>On March 28, the Bank of Japan issued a press release announcing that it would launch a \"continuous fixed-price market operation\" between March 29 and 31 to curb interest rate increases, which involves purchasing an unlimited amount of government bonds from private financial institutions at a specified interest rate.</p><p>On that day, the yen plummeted 1.38%.</p><p>On April 20, less than a month later, the Bank of Japan announced unlimited purchases of 10-year Treasury Bond to defend the 0.25% yield cap on the 10-year Japanese Treasury Bond, further driving the depreciation of the yen.</p><p>Some experts believe that because the depreciation of the yen is beneficial to Japan's export-oriented economy, the Bank of Japan has consistently used a loose monetary environment as an important means to boost market expectations. Especially now that the new fiscal year has just begun, the Bank of Japan is less likely to tighten monetary policy.</p><p>But can easing save the Japanese economy?</p><p>In reality, Japan's trade structure is unstable. Since the Abe administration took office and introduced unlimited stimulus policies, total exports have declined continuously from 2012 to 2015, and only maintained a trade surplus in 2016 and 2017.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b2490580bd25519041d5aef1bb5c3c0\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The recent surge in global crude oil and raw material prices, coupled with the depreciation of the yen, has increased costs for Japanese companies and broadened the channels for imported inflation. Meanwhile, according to data from the OECD's \"Value-Added Trade Statistics,\" Japan's domestic added value has fallen from 94% in 1995 to 83% in 2018, a decrease of 11%. It is becoming increasingly difficult for Japan's related high-value-added products and services to offset their ever-increasing production costs.</p><p>The only beneficiaries were domestic Japanese speculators. With the Federal Reserve's significant intervention, US Treasury yields continued to soar, and the interest rate differential between the US, Japan, and Treasury Bond became increasingly large. As a result, domestic speculators began to short the yen on a large scale, using the yen to buy US Treasury bonds for arbitrage.</p><p>What about ordinary people?</p><p>Rising prices have led to increased living costs and weakened consumer power, and the \"lost thirty years\" seem to be about to be postponed again. The depreciation of the yen, which the Bank of Japan has deemed \"beneficial to the economy,\" has never effectively boosted Japan's economic growth for many years. Instead, it has prevented the Japanese economy from escaping from large-scale monetary easing policies for more than a decade.</p><p>Thirty years ago, then-central bank governor Yasushi Mie No warned the government: A country must not survive by inflating economic bubbles, otherwise it will be a great harm to the country.</p><p>Shortly after he took office, Japan implemented a tight monetary policy, significantly increasing loan interest rates and proactively bursting the bubble. This hard landing plunged Japan into decades of depression, but it is often regarded by later generations as a decisive act of \"cutting off one's own arm\".</p><p>However, the car in front has overturned, and the rest is unknown.</p><p>Thirty years later, Japan still seems to be the same Japan.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1639703443321","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How did the Japanese economy suffer three decades of \"loss\" behind Abe's assassination?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow did the Japanese economy suffer three decades of \"loss\" behind Abe's assassination?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">风暴眼工作室</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-08 17:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On July 8, the news that former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had been shot shocked the world.</p><p>According to CCTV, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot while giving a speech in Nara on the morning of the 8th local time. It is reported that Shinzo Abe was still conscious when he got into the ambulance, and he currently has no vital signs.</p><p>The yen exchange rate was also affected. As of 11:30 on July 8, the USD/JPY decline widened to 0.47% at 135.37, while the yen appreciated.</p><p>Why did the yen suddenly appreciate after Abe was assassinated? This may be related to the \"Abenomics\" that he promoted during his term. After Shinzo Abe took office at the end of 2012, he accelerated the implementation of a series of economic stimulus policies, the most notable of which was the loose monetary policy, which led to the accelerated depreciation of the yen.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the yen's continued decline has become more pronounced. On June 13, the yen fell below 135 yen to the dollar, hitting a new low in about 24 years. In the year since the beginning of 2021, the yen has depreciated significantly against the US dollar by more than 25%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73ac608c7438fa9083c60e6af1c6dfd9\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The continued sharp decline of traditional safe-haven currencies has led to a significant sell-off of Japanese bonds and yen assets.</p><p>Although Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated his view that the Bank of Japan must maintain its massive stimulus program to support the fragile economic recovery.</p><p>However, for ordinary Japanese people, it is still debatable whether the fragile economic recovery needs to be supported by a sharp depreciation of the yen. After all, as a major importer, Japan is 88% dependent on foreign energy and only 37% self-sufficient in food. The rise in commodity prices caused by the depreciation of the yen will directly affect the lives of citizens.</p><p>Especially after so many years of significant easing, Japan's average annual GDP growth rate has been less than 1% since the collapse of the Japanese economy in 1990.</p><p>While the housing market has been eased and prices have been raised, residents' disposable income has not been eased, leaving people somewhat lacking in confidence. After experiencing a \"lost decade,\" a \"lost twenty years,\" and a \"lost thirty years,\" Japan's lost eyes are heading towards the time dimension of Atlantis.</p><p>In the fourth decade, will Japan be able to make a comeback?</p><p><b>Abe and his \"Abenomics\"</b></p><p>Although Shinzo Abe resigned as prime minister in August 2020, the current sharp depreciation of the yen is closely linked to his \"Abenomics\".</p><p>At the end of 2012, Shinzo Abe once again served as Prime Minister of Japan, and immediately proposed a \"boosting the economy\" strategy, which was hyped up by the media as \"Abenomics\".</p><p>The so-called \"Abenomics\" is a combination of policies to solve Japan's economic problems through experimental monetary policy (QQE), proactive fiscal policy, and economic structural reforms. Including \"three major strategies\":</p><p>First, it proposed the largest quantitative easing (QE) monetary policy in Japan's history, with the central bank purchasing 7.5 trillion yen worth of Treasury Bond every month;</p><p>Secondly, the expansionary fiscal policy exceeded the previous government's total budget of 70 trillion yen;</p><p>Third, it encompasses a package of growth strategies, including the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), deregulation to stimulate private investment, and promote innovation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79ef0cf1ad82f6f4d2dbd2d9e5cde013\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Abenomics is the latest effort to address Japan's economic downturn since the 1990s. So how effective has the implementation been?</p><p>An analysis by Global Macroeconomic Speculation points out that Abenomics is a great economic experiment in which Japanese financiers and politicians broke down prejudices and used a three-pronged approach of structural adjustment, fiscal and monetary policy to increase Japan's potential economic growth rate and overcome deflation. The first three years of the experiment were quite successful.</p><p>The article also points out that \"Abenomics\" performed poorly from 2016 to 2020. Despite the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, some of Abenomic's goals were achieved, especially inflation expectations, the yen exchange rate, real interest rates, and stock prices. However, potential output growth during the same period was not good, proving that structural reforms were not being promoted effectively.</p><p>Zhang Jifeng, deputy director of the Institute of Japanese Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that Abe's achievements in economic governance are evident to all, but there are also some serious problems. The most serious problem is the difficult financial situation, and this situation has never changed.</p><p>Liu Yun, associate researcher at the Institute of Northeast Asian Studies of the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, believes that looking solely at Japan's GDP would lead to misunderstandings and the belief that Abenomics has not been very successful. However, overall, the Japanese economy is on an upward trend. For example, wages in Japan have increased and the profit growth rate of large corporations is good, so the Japanese economic situation has improved.</p><p><b>\"Loss\" began in 1990</b></p><p>The original intention of \"Abenomics\" was to save Japan's persistently sluggish economy. The \"lost decade\" was first proposed when the Japanese stock market bubble burst in 1990.</p><p>For more than a decade before the collapse of the bubble that devastated Japan, Japan was a \"miracle worker.\"</p><p>Starting with early labor-intensive enterprises such as cotton textiles to accumulate capital, and later with manufacturing as the core industry, actively expanding investment and introducing advanced foreign technologies, the country quickly rebuilt its industrial system from the post-war ruins.</p><p>By 1964, the Tokyo Olympics had become an important milestone in connecting Japan's economic development and transformation. Due to the demand for steel from large-scale infrastructure construction and the demand for color TVs for the opening of the Olympics, Japan's steel and electromechanical industries flourished, and Japan experienced a complete development stage from \"trading shirts for airplanes\" to \"Made in Japan\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d0a4f35b86afc5382004806076b2487\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 1965, Japan exported half of its steel to the United States, and in 1968, Japan became the world's second-largest economy after the United States.</p><p>At the same time, Japan has firmly grasped the new generation of industrial revolution, with automobiles, steel, telecommunications, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals completely dominating the US market, and Hitachi, NEC, Fujitsu, Mitsubishi, and Toshiba emerging as giants.</p><p>During the years of trade deficits between the United States and Japan, industry giants suffered losses year after year, and Intel was even on the verge of bankruptcy at one point.</p><p>Faced with the predicament of being overwhelmed by Japanese goods, the United States, disregarding face, launched a trade war that seems familiar to Chinese people today—</p><p>Starting in 1981, Japanese automobiles sold worldwide began to be subject to heavy tariffs and export quotas restricted by the United States.</p><p>Meanwhile, the United States imposed 100% tariffs on Japanese high-tech products such as computers and televisions, citing \"dumping practices\" by Japan. A lower export price limit was set for Japanese semiconductors, and a 100% punitive tariff was imposed on Japanese chips.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2325f7d267568d30d4ad4c0f6022d74e\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>US lawmakers live-stream smashing Japanese products</p><p>In addition, executives of Japanese companies were arrested on charges of \"industrial espionage,\" and Japan was accused by the United States of being a \"currency manipulator\" and stealing intellectual property from the United States. Japan was also required to increase imports of U.S. agricultural products, eliminate trade terms unfavorable to foreign companies, impose voluntary export restrictions on industries such as textiles, steel, televisions, and machine tools, while simultaneously relocating factories and upgrading industries.</p><p>While constantly accusing Japan of supporting its industrial policies through state support, the United States enacted a new trade law in 1988, invoking the \"Super 301\" clause—openly legislating to interfere in Japan's industrial and trade policies and forcing Japan to carry out institutional reforms.</p><p>In 1989, Japan and the United States began negotiations on the \"Japan-U.S. Structural Agreement,\" consulting on economic policies, systems, and corporate behavior, which prompted Japan to carry out open reforms in areas such as its circulation system and business practices: for example, regarding housing as a strategic industry and further opening up its circulation system. Further open up the domestic market and restructure the import and export system in accordance with the principle of free trade.</p><p>By 1989, the United States Trade Representative had initiated a total of 24 Section 301 investigations against Japan, almost all of which were concessions from the Japanese government.</p><p>At the same time, the yen was forced to appreciate sharply against the dollar due to the \"Plaza Accord\" reached in 1985 by the United States, Japan, West Germany, France, and the United Kingdom. Following Black Monday in October 1987, the yen appreciated to 120 yen per dollar, an increase of as much as 90% in 1988.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ab4dd9acfe04f8aab569cb046a73ff\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Plaza Agreement Signing Site</p><p>The sharp appreciation of the yen has dealt a devastating blow to Japan, an export-oriented economy. Production costs have risen sharply, and high-quality companies have begun to flee overseas. In order to cope with the currency crisis, the Japanese government has begun to cut interest rates sharply, hoping to \"provide money\" so that companies can invest and set up factories at low cost.</p><p>In reality, due to the excessively long return cycle for real industries, a large amount of yen lent at low interest rates was not invested in the real economy. The ample liquidity in the money market began to flow into the housing, stock, and luxury goods markets in large quantities as the yen appreciated sharply after the Plaza Accords.</p><p>Starting in 1986, Japan's rapidly expanding economic prosperity was known as the \"Heisei boom.\" At the end of 1985, the Nikkei 225 stock index closed at 13,083 points, and at the end of 1989, it closed at 38,916 points. In four years, the Nikkei 225 index rose by a cumulative 197.45%, and the total market capitalization of stocks continued to expand to 896 trillion yen, accounting for 60% of Japan's GDP that year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f5d38582a2e3123322a61e5b005f13f\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Japanese streets in the 1980s</p><p>Land prices in Tokyo skyrocketed, with the land price of the Japanese Emperor's Tokyo Imperial Palace exceeding the estimated land value of the entire country. In the Ginza area, a 10,000 yen bill thrown on the ground cannot buy the small piece of land it covers.</p><p>At the same time, the Japanese have become the world's largest consumer of luxury goods, sweeping up watch stores, jewelry stores, and wineries around the world. Foreign banks and securities companies are counting their money in the Japanese market.</p><p>A large number of stock index short options, which were completely at odds with economic reality, erupted when the bubble inflated to its peak.</p><p>In October 1990, Japan's five-year bull market ended, with the stock market plummeting by 63.24%, marking the largest drop in Japanese stock market history. The following year, the housing market plummeted by 65%, bankrupt companies emerged one after another, the number of unemployed people surged, and the wealth of the entire country shrank by nearly 50%.</p><p>At the same time, the short-term sharp recession has left countless ordinary people who did not have time to escape \"trapped\" in various capital investment targets, and a major economic reshuffle has transferred the wealth of the whole society to at least a few winners.</p><p>Since then, the Japanese economy has been in a prolonged slump.</p><p>The Nikkei average fell by more than 82% from a historical high of 38,957 on December 29, 1989, to a low of 6,994.9 on October 29, 2008. For the next four years, the Nikkei average remained hovering around 10,000 points.</p><p>Starting in the late 1990s, the \"lost decade\" of the Japanese economy began to appear in the newspapers, and the problem remains unsolved to this day.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ced67142e550e77f5f84c394cba59c8d\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>What exactly has Japan lost in the past thirty years?</b></p><p>In 2010, as the Japanese economy still showed no signs of improvement, the media began to refer to the \"lost twenty years\" of the Japanese economy.</p><p>In reality, \"twenty years\" is still not the end of Japan's economic downturn. Starting from the all-time high closing point of the Nikkei 225 index at 38,957, the index continued to decline, falling below 10,000 points several times until it stopped falling in 2017.</p><p>On July 7, 2022, the Nikkei 225 index closed at 26,490.53 points, still more than 10,000 points away from its highest point.</p><p>The \"Plaza Accord,\" which caused the yen to appreciate sharply, is considered by many to be the root cause of Japan's bubble economy, which triggered the Great Depression.</p><p>However, the criticisms of the Plaza Accords are not consistent in the analysis of this Great Depression. Former Japanese Deputy Minister of Finance Toyoo Gyoten even personally refuted this view.</p><p>Between 1985 and 1990, thanks to overseas investment driven by a strong yen, Japan's net overseas assets rose from over $1 trillion to over $3 trillion, which is what is known as \"there is another Japan besides Japan\"—</p><p>While the yen has appreciated by 300% in 10 years, there has been a huge increase in production and labor costs. In order to maintain their competitiveness, many Japanese companies have had to turn their attention overseas, which has led to a rapid outflow of Japanese capital.</p><p>The rapidly appreciating yen and the increasingly tense Japan-US trade war have also contributed to this outflow—a strong yen makes it easier for Japanese companies to invest in and acquire overseas companies, while building factories overseas can circumvent US sanctions on \"Made in Japan\".</p><p>From 1985 to 1990, Japanese companies conducted a total of 21 giant overseas mergers and acquisitions worth more than 50 billion yen.</p><p>In 1989, Mitsubishi bought Rockefeller Center for $1.4 billion, Panasonic bought Universal Pictures for $6 billion, and Sony bought Columbia Pictures for $3.4 billion—including the Spider-Man rights that Marvel has yet to reclaim.</p><p>The Japanese even had the ambition to buy the United States into \"Japan's 41st prefecture.\" Why does the city look so much like Tokyo from the 70th floor of the InterContinental Hotel in Los Angeles?</p><p>Because the Japanese bought half of the real estate here back then.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6420f38680bf983f828177b00418e180\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In his book \"Anger Across the Pacific,\" Japanese scholar Kan Ito wrote that some Japanese believe Japan will become the next \"superpower\" and that the government will lead its people to \"end the era of America.\"</p><p>However, these properties belong to giant corporations, conglomerates, speculators, and wealthy foreign businessmen, but they do not belong to the Japanese people.</p><p>In 2020, the Sankei Shimbun reported that the revenue of Japanese overseas subsidiaries had increased by 220% in the past 20 years, while according to OECD statistics, the per capita purchasing power in Japan in 2020 was only US$39,000, an increase of only 4% compared to 1990.</p><p><b>1. Income that remains unchanged for thirty years</b></p><p>After 1900, Japanese investment activities came to an abrupt halt.</p><p>Banks went bankrupt, factories closed down, and mortgages became a disaster, forcing banks rife with non-performing assets to merge and restructure. The sharply rising production costs caused a large number of businesses to go bankrupt, and ordinary people suffered the most—they were laid off in the wave of bankruptcies, their life savings evaporated in the bubble crisis, and they were burdened with heavy mortgages.</p><p>After the collapse of the lifetime employment system and seniority system, the \"corporate slave\" culture, which worked desperately to keep its job, did not originate from Japan's bubble crisis, but it solidified afterward—accepting the exploitation of competition and the gears that prioritize production efficiency became the most helpless choice for Japanese workers.</p><p>However, the tide of social development propelled the Japanese forward, but failed to bring them the rewards they deserved.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11648f82b27132391bb1a6cef2c3432a\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In February 2021, the \"Labor Statistics Survey\" released by Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare showed that the average monthly salary in Japan in 2020 was 318,299 yen, equivalent to about 19,600 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%, marking the largest drop in 12 years.</p><p>This figure was around 350,000 yuan in 1990, when the average annual income of Japanese people was 4.25 million yen. At the exchange rate at the time, the monthly salary was about 11,600 yuan.</p><p>Average annual income, which has remained stagnant for 30 consecutive years, has become Japan's most intense \"birth control pill\".</p><p><b>2. Irreversible aging</b></p><p>In 2020, Japan ranked 11th in the world in terms of total population, marking the first time it had fallen out of the top ten since 1950. From 1974 to 2020, Japan's birth rate dropped from 1.86% to 0.67%, and around 2008 it began to fall into 13 consecutive years of negative population growth.</p><p>Meanwhile, Japan has 36.4 million people aged 65 and above, accounting for 29.1% of the total population.</p><p>Japan's declining birthrate and aging population have led to a severe labor supply shortage and a slowdown in labor productivity growth, resulting in a continued slowdown in economic growth.</p><p>\"From 1961 to 2020, the growth rates of Japan's working-age population and labor productivity changed basically in sync with economic trends. While the average growth rate of Japan's working-age population remained at a high level of 1.6% and the labor productivity growth rate peaked at 8.4% from 1961 to 1975, the average real GDP growth rate also remained at a high level of 7.7%; from 1976 to 1988, the working-age population and labor productivity maintained low growth rates of 0.9% and 3.7% respectively, and the real GDP growth rate also dropped to 4.4%.\" From 1989 to 2020, the growth rates of the working-age population and labor productivity dropped sharply from 0.9% and 4.4% to -0.8% and 1.1%, respectively, while the real GDP growth rate dropped from 5.4% to -4.4%.</p><p>With the working population declining and tax revenue decreasing, the need for pension and other expenses is expanding rapidly. Since 1990, the number of people relying on pensions has been five times that of taxpayers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c92a0dfa8f71abcdb41b554124294a7\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"302\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 2004, Japan launched pension reform, raising taxes by 0.354% annually. By 2017, taxpayers' pension contributions had accounted for 18.3% of their annual income, becoming a heavy burden on the Japanese people.</p><p>Japan's ranking in the Human Development Index (which measures per capita GDP, education, and healthcare) fell from number one in the world in 1990 to nineteenth in 2020.</p><p>At the same time, the decline in expected income has led to a negative attitude towards life, low material desires, and a lack of motivation among young Japanese people, resulting in the emergence of a \"secluded generation\". According to the definition of Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, secluded people are people who stay at home for more than 6 months and have almost cut off contact with the outside world. According to data from the Cabinet Office's \"Living Conditions Survey\", the number of secluded people aged 15-39 and 40-64 reached 541,000 and 613,000 respectively.</p><p>The consumption and housing demand of the elderly is far lower than that of young people, and young people severely lack the desire to consume, making it difficult for total consumption to increase significantly, and Japan has fallen into a \"low-desire society\".</p><p><b>3. Lifetime QE, but consistently weak.</b></p><p>In 2021, Japan's GDP fell below the \"50s\" with a total GDP of $4,937.4 billion, but it still ranks as the world's third-largest economy, surpassing Europe, which doesn't seem to be bad.</p><p>In reality, Japan's GDP had already reached $5.55 trillion in 1995, when the ratio of Japan's GDP to the United States' GDP was 71.34%. In 2021, this ratio increased to 21.46%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0823be1f503a8cdff0d86e9ba57b90cf\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"231\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Compared to its past glory, Japan today is indeed in some difficulty.</p><p>Meanwhile, Japan's macro leverage ratio is also among the highest in the world. According to the latest data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), at the end of the second quarter of 2021, the macro leverage ratio among countries was 286.2% in the United States, 284.3% in the Eurozone, and 416.5% in Japan.</p><p>The massive amount of debt stems from Japan's decades-long quantitative easing.</p><p>quantitative easing is an innovation in Japan's financial sector.</p><p>In 1998, the Bank of Japan first began implementing a zero-interest-rate and quantitative easing policy, which regulates economic activity by controlling the money supply.</p><p>In 2013, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda launched a monetary policy stimulus plan to boost inflation.</p><p>Since 2013, the yen has continued to depreciate against the US dollar, and exports have achieved significant growth. Meanwhile, Japan's benchmark interest rate has been declining steadily, with the 10-year Treasury Bond rate even falling to negative numbers in 2016.</p><p>Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan began to purchase ETFs (exchange-traded funds) on a large scale, with an average annual ETF purchase volume of nearly 4 trillion yen. By 2021, the Bank of Japan held more than 80% of equity ETFs and more than 5% of the total market capitalization of the Tokyo Stock Exchange.</p><p>Although the Nikkei 225 index has strengthened from around 8,000 points in 2012, even breaking through the 30,000-point mark in February 2021, it still seems to be a mirage of bubble prosperity, because the massive amount of base money injected by the Bank of Japan has neither raised inflation nor boosted economic growth.</p><p>In terms of economic structure, apart from core basic raw materials, which still maintain a barrier advantage, Japan's other industries are almost stagnating. The markets in the automotive, shipbuilding, machine tool, and electronics industries are being divided up by countries such as the United States, China, and South Korea, with little achievement in emerging industries.</p><p>Currently, Japan has only 6 unicorn companies, far behind the 554, 180, 64, 43, and 26 companies in the United States, China, India, the United Kingdom, and Germany, all of which are valued at less than $2 billion.</p><p>Meanwhile, Japan's debt expanded rapidly. As of the end of December 2021, Japan's national debt, consisting of Treasury Bond, borrowings and short-term government securities, reached 1,218.4 trillion yen, and the per capita debt of Japanese citizens was approximately 9.71 million yen, equivalent to about 534,573 yuan.</p><p>However, while central banks in the US, UK, and Europe have all begun to tighten their stance, the Bank of Japan has not changed its loose monetary policy.</p><p><b>\"Counter-market\" easing, unlimited money printing, and consecutive declines in the yen</b></p><p>The yen's continuous decline began in March.</p><p>Following the release of the Federal Reserve's rate hike in March, which signaled that it would further increase rate hike and accelerate shrinking balance sheet, both the UK and Europe began to accelerate the tightening of monetary policy. However, the Bank of Japan did the opposite and insisted on maintaining its quantitative easing policy.</p><p>On March 28, the Bank of Japan issued a press release announcing that it would launch a \"continuous fixed-price market operation\" between March 29 and 31 to curb interest rate increases, which involves purchasing an unlimited amount of government bonds from private financial institutions at a specified interest rate.</p><p>On that day, the yen plummeted 1.38%.</p><p>On April 20, less than a month later, the Bank of Japan announced unlimited purchases of 10-year Treasury Bond to defend the 0.25% yield cap on the 10-year Japanese Treasury Bond, further driving the depreciation of the yen.</p><p>Some experts believe that because the depreciation of the yen is beneficial to Japan's export-oriented economy, the Bank of Japan has consistently used a loose monetary environment as an important means to boost market expectations. Especially now that the new fiscal year has just begun, the Bank of Japan is less likely to tighten monetary policy.</p><p>But can easing save the Japanese economy?</p><p>In reality, Japan's trade structure is unstable. Since the Abe administration took office and introduced unlimited stimulus policies, total exports have declined continuously from 2012 to 2015, and only maintained a trade surplus in 2016 and 2017.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b2490580bd25519041d5aef1bb5c3c0\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The recent surge in global crude oil and raw material prices, coupled with the depreciation of the yen, has increased costs for Japanese companies and broadened the channels for imported inflation. Meanwhile, according to data from the OECD's \"Value-Added Trade Statistics,\" Japan's domestic added value has fallen from 94% in 1995 to 83% in 2018, a decrease of 11%. It is becoming increasingly difficult for Japan's related high-value-added products and services to offset their ever-increasing production costs.</p><p>The only beneficiaries were domestic Japanese speculators. With the Federal Reserve's significant intervention, US Treasury yields continued to soar, and the interest rate differential between the US, Japan, and Treasury Bond became increasingly large. As a result, domestic speculators began to short the yen on a large scale, using the yen to buy US Treasury bonds for arbitrage.</p><p>What about ordinary people?</p><p>Rising prices have led to increased living costs and weakened consumer power, and the \"lost thirty years\" seem to be about to be postponed again. The depreciation of the yen, which the Bank of Japan has deemed \"beneficial to the economy,\" has never effectively boosted Japan's economic growth for many years. Instead, it has prevented the Japanese economy from escaping from large-scale monetary easing policies for more than a decade.</p><p>Thirty years ago, then-central bank governor Yasushi Mie No warned the government: A country must not survive by inflating economic bubbles, otherwise it will be a great harm to the country.</p><p>Shortly after he took office, Japan implemented a tight monetary policy, significantly increasing loan interest rates and proactively bursting the bubble. This hard landing plunged Japan into decades of depression, but it is often regarded by later generations as a decisive act of \"cutting off one's own arm\".</p><p>However, the car in front has overturned, and the rest is unknown.</p><p>Thirty years later, Japan still seems to be the same Japan.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vyE5FKltsfEpcN7v5P6r4w\">风暴眼工作室</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab6491f7a764c5c5f68017952b8c2931","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vyE5FKltsfEpcN7v5P6r4w","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172335974","content_text":"7月8日,日本前首相安倍晋三遭遇枪击的消息震惊全世界。据央视报道,当地时间8日,日本前首相安倍晋三当天上午在奈良发表演讲时中枪 。据悉,安倍晋三在上救护车时还有意识,目前安倍晋三已经没有生命体征。日元汇率也受到了影响,截至7月8日11:30,美元兑日元跌幅扩大至0.47%,报135.37,日元有所升值。安倍遇刺,日元为何会突然升值?或许与其任期内力主推动的“安倍经济学”有关。安倍晋三2012年底上台后加速实施的一系列刺激经济政策,最值得注目的就是宽松货币政策,日元汇率开始加速贬值。今年以来,日元汇率持续下跌态势更加明显。6月13日,日元兑美元汇率一度跌破135日元兑换1美元关口,创下约24年的新低。而从2021年初至今的一年多时间内,日元相对美元已经大幅贬值超过25%。作为传统避险货币持续大跌,让日债和日元资产开始被大幅抛售。虽然日本央行行长黑田东彦重申了他的观点,即日本央行必须维持其大规模刺激计划,以支撑脆弱的经济复苏。但对于普通日本人,脆弱的经济复苏是否需要用日元的大幅贬值来支撑还是值得商榷,毕竟日本作为一个进口大国,能源对外依存度高达88%,粮食自给率仅有37%。日元贬值带来的大宗商品价格抬升,将直接影响市民的生活。尤其是大幅宽松了这么多年,可从1990年日本经济崩溃以来,日本平均年GDP增长率不足1%。宽高了房产、宽起了物价,独独没有宽起来居民的可支配收入,人们多少缺乏点信心。在已经经历了“失落的十年”、\"失落的二十年\"、“失落的三十年”之后,日本的失落眼看着要奔向亚特兰蒂斯的那个时间维度去了。第四个十年,日本又是否能绝地翻盘呢?安倍和他的“安倍经济学”虽然安倍晋三在2020年8月就已经辞任首相,但日元如今的大幅贬值却和他的“安倍经济学”联系紧密。2012年底,安倍晋三再次担任日本首相,随即抛出“拼经济”路线,被媒体热炒为“安倍经济学”。所谓“安倍经济学”,是通过实验性质的货币政策(简称QQE)、积极财政政策和经济结构改革来解决日本经济问题的政策组合。包括“三大策略”:其一,提出日本史上最大规模的量化宽松(QE)货币政策,央行每月购买国债7.5万亿日元;其二,突破前任政府预算总额70万亿日元的扩张性财政政策;其三,囊括《跨太平洋战略经济伙伴协定》(TPP)、放松管制以唤起民间投资和促进创新等在内的一揽子增长战略。安倍经济学是为了解决1990年代以后日本经济不断低迷而做出的最新努力。那么实施效果如何呢?全球宏观投机的一篇分析文章指出,安倍经济学是一个伟大的经济实验,日本金融家和政治家打破成见,用结构调整、财政和货币政策三管齐下的方法提升日本潜在经济增长率,克服通货紧缩。实验的前三年,获得了相当成功。文章同时也指出,“安倍经济学”2016到2020年则表现暗淡。新冠疫情冲击下部分安倍经济学的目标得以实现,尤其是通胀预期、日元汇率、真实利率和股票价格等,但是同期的潜在产出成长并不佳,证明了结构改革推进不力。中国社会科学院日本研究所副所长张季风认为,安倍在经济治理上的成绩大家有目共睹,但是也有较为严重的问题。其中最严重的问题就是财政状况困难,这个局面始终没有得到改变。中国现代国际关系研究院东北亚研究所副研究员刘云认为,若仅从日本GDP来看,会有所误解,认为安倍经济学不太成功。但如果从整体上看,日本经济是一个向上的姿态,例如日本的工资有增加、大企业利润增速不错,所以日本经济形势是有所好转的。“失落”始于1990“安倍经济学”的初衷是为了挽救日本持续低迷的经济。而“失落的十年”最早被提出,则是1990年日本股市泡沫破灭。在这场让日本一蹶不振的泡沫大破灭之前的十数年,日本曾是“缔造奇迹的国家”。从早期的棉纺织等劳动密集型企业开始积累资本,再到后来以制造业为核心产业,积极扩大投资、引进国外先进技术,从战后的废墟里迅速重建起本国的工业体系。到1964年,东京奥运会更是成为衔接日本经济发展转型的重要标志,由于大规模基建对钢铁的需求以及奥运会开幕对彩电的需求,日本的钢铁、机电行业蓬勃发展,日本经历了一个完整的“用衬衫换飞机”到“日本制造”的发展阶段。1965年,日本输出美国的钢铁占到了美国进口总量一半,1968年,日本成为了仅次美国的世界第二大经济体。与此同时,日本牢牢抓住了新一代的产业革命,汽车、钢铁、电信、半导体、制药全面制霸美国市场,日立、NEC、富士通、三菱和东芝群雄并起。而美国在当年对日的连年贸易赤字中,产业巨头们一片连年亏损,英特尔甚至一度濒临倒闭。在被日货打得找不着北的窘境之下,美国不顾脸面地发起了一场国人如今看起来很眼熟的贸易战——从1981年开始,行销全球的日系汽车开始被美国课以重税,并且在出口额度上被加以限制。同时,美国以日方“存在倾销行为”为由对日本的电脑、电视等高科技产品征收100%的关税,日本的半导体被设置出口价格下限、日本的芯片被征收100%惩罚性关税。美国议员直播砸碎日本产品此外,日系企业的高管被以“产业间谍罪”为名拘捕,日本被美国指责为“汇率操纵国”、从美国窃取知识产权,并被要求加大对美国农产品的进口力度、取消对外企不利的贸易条款、让日本在纺织品、钢铁、电视和机床等行业都实行自愿出口限制,同时进行工厂转移和产业升级……在不断指责日本通过国家扶持产业政策的同时,美国却在1988年出台新的贸易法,启用“超级301”条款——公然立法干预日本的产业与贸易政策,迫使日本进行制度性改革。1989年日美开始“日美结构协议”谈判,就经济政策、制度及企业行为等进行磋商,促使日本在流通体制、商业惯例等方面进行开放性改革:例如把住房作为战略性产业,进一步开放流通体制;进一步开放国内市场,按照自由贸易的原则重组进出口体制。截至1989年,美国贸易代表总计向日本发起了24例301条款案件调查,几乎全部由日本政府做出了让步。同时,由于1985年美国、日本、联邦德国、法国和英国达成的“广场协议”,日元兑美元汇率被迫大幅升值。1987年10月的“黑色星期一”之后,日元升值到120日元/美元,1988年度升幅高达90%。广场协议签订现场大幅升值的日元对以出口型经济为主的日本造成了毁灭性的打击,生产成本急剧上涨、优质企业开始逃向海外,为了应对汇率危机,日本政府开始大幅降息,寄希望于“发钱”让企业可以低成本去投资办厂。可实际上,由于实业回报周期过长,低利率贷出大量的日元并没有被投入到到实体经济,货币市场的充裕流动性,随着日元在广场协议后大幅升值的“强势”开始大量流入房市、股市以及奢侈品市场。1986 年开始,日本飞速膨胀的经济繁荣被称为“平成景气”,1985年末日经225股价指数收于13083点, 1989年末收于38916点,四年间日经225指数累计上涨197.45%,并且股票总市值继续膨胀至896万亿日元,占日本当年国民生产总值的60%。80年代的日本街头东京的地价则是坐地飞升,日本天皇的东京皇居土地价格就超过了整个法国的土地估价;银座地区一张1万日元的纸币扔在地上,也买不到它所覆盖的那一小片土地。同时,日本人成了全球最大的奢侈品消费国,他们横扫全球的手表店、珠宝店以及红酒酒庄,外资银行与证券公司在日本市场数钱数到手软。与经济现实完全背离的大批股指沽空期权之后,是泡沫膨胀到极致时爆发。1990年10月,日本长达5年的牛市结束,股市暴跌63.24%,创造了日本股市历史上最大的下跌幅度。次年,楼市暴跌65%,破产企业层出不穷,失业人群人数激增,整个国家财富缩水了近50%。同时,短期的大幅衰退让无数来不及抽身的普通人被各项资本投资标的物“套牢”,一场经济大洗牌让全社会的财富被转移至少数赢家手中。此后,日本经济开始长期处于低迷状态。日经平均指数由1989年12月29日历史高位38957,到2008年10月29日最低6994.9,累积跌幅逾82%,其后4年日经平均指数仍然始终徘徊在10,000点左右。也就是从90年代末开始,日本经济“失去的十年””开始不断见诸报端,并至今难题未解。三十年里,日本具体失去了什么?2010年,由于日本经济仍无起色,媒体开始提出日本经济“失去的二十年”。实际上,“二十年”依旧不是日本经济颓靡的终点。自38957的日经225指数历史最高收盘点位开始算起,此后一路下行,期间多次跌至1万点一下,直至2017年才止跌。2022年7月7日收盘,日经225指数收盘报26490.53点,距其最高点仍有一万多点的差距。那个让日元急剧升值的“广场协议”,被许多人认为是日本泡沫经济引发大萧条的根源。但对于这次大萧条的分析中,对于广场协议的批判并不是一致的。原日本大藏省副相行天丰雄甚至亲自出面驳斥过这一观点。因为在1985年~1990年,借强势日元下的海外投资,日本海外净资产从1万多亿美元上升到3万多亿美元,也就是所谓的“日本之外,还有一个日本”——日元10年升值300%的同时,是生产成本与人力成本的巨幅抬升。为了保持自己的竞争力,大量日企不得不将目光投向海外,这使得日企资本急速外流。升值迅速的日元与日渐焦灼的日美贸易战也助推了这一外流——强势的日元方便日企投资收购海外企业,同时在外建厂可以绕开美国对“日本制造”的制裁。从1985年到1990年,日本企业总共进行了21起500亿日元以上的巨型海外并购案。1989年,三菱公司14亿美元买下的洛克菲勒中心、松下60亿美元买下的美国环球影业、索尼公司以34亿美元买下哥伦比亚影片公司——其中包括漫威如今都没能收回的蜘蛛侠版权;日本人甚至雄心壮志地要将美国买成“日本的第四十一个县”,为什么从洛杉矶洲际酒店70楼看去的城市那么像东京?因为当年日本人买下了这里一半的地产。日本学者伊藤感在《横跨太平洋的愤怒》中写到,一些日本人相信日本会成为下一个\"超级大国\",政府会带领民众\"终结美国的时代\"。只是这些地产,属于巨企、属于财团、属于投机者、属于外籍富商,但独独不属于日本的人民。2020年《产经新闻》报道,日本海外当地法人的营收在近20年内增长了220%,而按照OECD的统计数据,日本2020年的人均购买力水平仅为3.9万美元,比1990年仅增长了4%。1、三十年不动的收入1900年以后,日本的投资活动戛然而止。银行破产、工厂倒闭、房贷成灾,充斥着不良资产的银行不得不合并重组;剧烈抬升的生产成本让企业大批倒闭,最惨的还是普通人——在倒闭潮中被裁员、一辈子的积蓄在泡沫危机中挥发、还要背上沉重的房贷。而在终身雇佣制和年功序列崩解后,为了保住工作而拼命加班,“社畜”文化虽然不诞生于日本的泡沫危机,但却在这之后得到了固化——接受竞争和生产效率至上的齿轮对自己的压榨,成了日本打工人最无奈的选择。但社会发展的洪流推进着日本人前进,却没能给他们应有的回报。2021年2月,日本厚生劳动省发布的“勤劳统计调查”显示,日本2020年的人均月薪为31万8299日元,约合1.96万元人民币,同比减少1.2%,创下12年以来最大降幅。而这一数字在1990年时是35万元左右,当时的日本人平均年收入是425万日元,以当时的汇率计算,月薪约合1.16万人民币。连续30年“原地踏步”的平均年收入,成了日本最猛烈的“避孕药”。2、难以逆转的老龄化2020年,日本总人口居世界11位,是1950年以来首次跌出前十。从1974到2020年,日本出生率由1.86%降至0.67%,在2008年左右开始陷入连续13年的人口负增长。同时,日本65岁及以上老年人口达3640万,在总人口中所占比例达29.1%。少子老龄化,导致日本陷入严重的劳动力供给不足、劳动生产率增速趋缓,进而使经济增速持续放缓:“1961-2020年日本劳动年龄人口增速、劳动生产率增速与经济走势基本同步变化。伴随1961-1975年日本劳动年龄人口平均增速维持在1.6%的高位、劳动生产率增速达到8.4%峰值,实际GDP平均增速也维持在7.7%的高位;1976-1988年劳动年龄人口、劳动生产率分别维持0.9%、3.7%的低速增长,实际GDP增速也降至4.4%;1989-2020年劳动年龄人口、劳动生产率增速分别从0.9%、4.4%大幅降至-0.8%、1.1%,实际GDP增速从5.4%降至-4.4%。”在劳动人口下降,税收不断减少的情况下,需要支出的养老金等费用却在急速扩大,自1990年起,依附养老金生活的人数已经是纳税人的5倍。2004年日本启动了养老金改革,每年以0.354%的涨幅提高税收,到2017年纳税人缴纳的养老金已占到个人年收入的18.3%,成了日本民众沉重的负担。日本人类发展指数的排名(测量人均GDP,教育,以及医疗),则从1990年的世界第一掉落至2020年的世界第十九。同时,日本年轻人因预期收入下降而形成的生活态度消极、物质欲望低下、缺乏奋斗动力的风气,由此产生“蛰居族”。根据日本厚生劳动省定义,蛰居族为持续6个月以上待在家里不出门,几乎和外界断绝联系的人群,根据日本内阁府《生活状况相关调查》数据,15-39岁、40-64岁人口蛰居族分别达54.1、61.3万人。老年人的消费和购房需求远低于年轻人,年轻人又严重缺乏消费欲望,使得总消费难以大幅提升,日本陷入“低欲望社会”。3、终身QE,却始终乏力2021年,日本以49374亿美元的GDP总量跌下“5字头”,但依旧是傲视欧洲,名列世界第三大经济体的经济大国,看起来似乎并不差。但实际上,日本1995年GDP就已经达到了5.55万亿美元,当时日本GDP与美国GDP的比率是71.34%,2021年,这个比率变成了21.46%。与过往的辉煌相比,如今的日本确实有些困窘。同时,日本的宏观杠杆率也在全球领先。国际清算银行(BIS)最新数据显示,2021 年二季度末,各国宏观杠杆率中美国为286.2%、欧元区为284.3%,而日本为416.5%。庞大的债务规模来源于日本数十年的量化宽松。量化宽松,是日本在融领域的一个创新。1998年,日本央行本央行第一次开始实行零利率和量化宽松政策,即通过对通货供应量的控制来调节经济活动。2013年,日本央行行长黑田东彦推出提振通胀的货币政策刺激计划。从2013年开始,日元兑美元持续贬值,出口实现了较大幅度增长;同时日本基准利率一路下行,十年期国债利率在2016年甚至下降至负数。同时日本央行开始大规模购入ETF(交易所交易基金),年均ETF购买规模接近4万亿日元,到2021年,日本央行持有股票占股票ETF的80%以上,占东京证券交易所总市值的5%以上。虽然日经225指数从2012年的八千点附近,一路走强,在2021年2月甚至突破了三万点大关,但这似乎仍然是一场镜花水月的泡沫化繁荣,因为日本央行注入的巨量基础货币既没有拉高通胀率,也没有拉动经济增长。经济结构上,日本除核心基础原材料依然保持壁垒优势,其他产业几乎都在裹足不前。汽车、造船、机床、电子产业的市场都在被美、中、韩等国瓜分,新兴产业上更是少有建树。目前日本独角兽企业数量仅6家,大幅落后于美、中、印、英、德、的554、180、64、43、26家,且估值均小于20亿美元。同时,日本的债务急剧扩张,截至2021年12月底,由国债、借款及政府短期证券构成的日本国家债务达到1218.4万亿日元,日本国民人均负债约为971万日元,约合人民币53万4573元。但在美、英、欧等央行均已开始紧缩步伐的当下,日本央行却仍旧未改变宽松的货币政策。“逆市”宽松、无限量印钞、日元连跌日元的连跌始于3月份。在3月美联储加息落地,并释放后续将加大加息幅度和加快缩表的信号后,英、欧均开始加速收紧货币政策,但日本央行却反其道而行之,坚持维持量化宽松政策。3 月 28 日,日本央行发布新闻稿宣布,将在3月 29-31 日间,发动抑制利率上升的“连续性指定价格市场操作”措施,即以指定的利率,无限量从民间金融机构手中收购公债。当天,日元汇率重挫1.38%。4月20日,不到一个月的时间内日本央行又宣布无限量购买10年期国债,以捍卫10年期日本国债0.25%的收益率上限,再度推动了日元的贬值。有专家认为,由于日元贬值有利于日本以出口为导向的经济,日本央行一直将宽松的货币环境作为提振市场预期的重要手段,尤其是在刚刚进入新财年的当下,日本央行更难有可能收紧货币政策。但宽松能挽救日本经济吗?实际上,日本贸易结构并不稳定,自安倍政府上台推出无限刺激政策后,出口总额在2012~2015年连续下降,仅2016、2017年两年保持了贸易顺差状态。近期全球原油和原材料价格飙升,日元贬值更是抬高了日本企业的成本,拓宽了输入型通胀的渠道。同时,根据OECD发布的“附加值贸易统计”数据显示,日本国内创造的附加值已经从1995年的94%降至2018年的83%,降低了11%,日本相关高附加值产品和服务已经越来越难抵消其不断提升的生产成本。唯一得益的,是日本本土的投机者们,随着美联储大幅落地,美债收益率持续飙涨,美日国债利差已经越来越大,于是本土的投机者们开始大规模沽空日元,借日元买美债的套利。对于老百姓来说呢?物价提升导致生活成本上升、消费力削弱,“失落的三十年”似乎又要延期——被日本央行认定“有利于经济”的日元贬值,多年来从未有效提振过日本的经济增长,反而让日本经济十数年来无法从大规模金融缓和政策中脱出。三十年前,时任央行行长三重野康告诫政府:一个国家绝对不能靠吹经济泡沫生存,否则将是国家的大害。于是在他上台不久后日本就实行了紧缩性的货币政策,大幅度提高了贷款利率,主动刺破泡沫。这场硬着陆让日本陷入了数十年的萧条,却也常被后人视为“壮士断腕”的果决。只是前车已覆,后未知更。三十年过去,日本似乎还是那个日本。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5512,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9079771648,"gmtCreate":1657244781084,"gmtModify":1676535978270,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577532473997426","idStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9079771648","repostId":"1154580307","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5455,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9079135963,"gmtCreate":1657156686552,"gmtModify":1676535960636,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577532473997426","idStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9079135963","repostId":"1177613805","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177613805","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1657148501,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1177613805?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-07 07:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"This article summarizes the key points from the minutes of last night's Federal Reserve meeting!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177613805","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摘要:6月会上美联储官员认为,7月会议可能适合加息75个基点或50个基点;通胀降至2%需要时间,加息可能导致一段时间经济放缓,但充分就业的关键是降通胀;目前有高通胀根深蒂固的风险,担心5月CPI暗示通","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: At the June meeting, Federal Reserve officials believed that the July meeting might be suitable for a rate hike of 75 or 50 basis points; It will take time for inflation to fall to 2%, and rate hike may lead to a period of economic slowdown, but the key to full employment is to reduce inflation. There is currently a risk of entrenched high inflation, with concerns that the May CPI suggests inflation will last longer than previously expected; If inflation expectations get out of control, reducing inflation will come at a higher cost. Meeting minutes released on Wednesday, July 6, Eastern Time, showed that at the June monetary policy meeting, Federal Reserve officials acknowledged that rate hike could slow economic growth, but believed that the rate hike might need to last longer to prevent high inflation from becoming entrenched. Because the inflation outlook has deteriorated, interest rates need to be raised to restrictive levels that deliberately slow the economy.</p><p>The minutes also confirmed that the Fed will discuss at its meeting this month whether to continue its 75 basis point rate hike or slow it to 50 basis points.</p><p>Media commentators say that, given recent data showing a slightly slower economic growth, some investors believe the hawkish stance reiterated by the Federal Reserve at its June meeting is outdated. This drove US stocks higher during the session, and the three major indices, which had turned lower more than once during the session, completely reversed their downward trend.</p><p>The July meeting will consider whether to rate hike another 75 basis points.</p><p>The Federal Reserve decided to raise rate hike by 75 basis points at its June meeting, marking the largest rate hike in over 27 years. The meeting minutes show that, given the extremely tight labor market supply, inflation far exceeding the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Committee (FOMC) inflation target of 2%, and the fact that the near-term inflation outlook has deteriorated since the May Fed meeting, almost all Fed policymakers agreed with the June rate hike of 75 basis points, with only one voting against it because they supported the rate hike of 50 basis points.</p><p>In discussing possible policy actions at future meetings, participating officials continued to anticipate future rate hike, with the minutes specifically mentioning:</p><p>The participants decided that the next meeting (Wall Street Insights note: i.e.<b>July Meeting</b>)<b>May be suitable for 75 basis points or 50 basis points in rate hike</b>。<b>Participants</b>There is consensus that the economic outlook guarantees a restrictive stance in (monetary) policy. And they<b>Recognizing that if high inflationary pressures persist, the stance may become even more restrictive.</b>(even more restrictive). Inflation will take time to fall to 2%, and rate hike may lead to a period of economic slowdown.</p><p>The minutes show that at the June meeting, Federal Reserve policymakers expected it would take time to reduce inflation, and that suppressing inflation would come at the cost of a potential slowdown in economic growth.</p><p>Participants believed that the Russia-Ukraine conflict, China's epidemic prevention efforts, and other factors constraining the supply environment will affect the inflation outlook, and it may take some time for inflation to fall back to the Fed's target. Participants also concluded that maintaining a strong labor market in the process of bringing inflation down to 2% will depend on many factors affecting supply and demand. Participants recognized that firm policies could slow economic growth for a period of time, but they expected that bringing inflation back to 2% would be key to achieving sustained full employment. There is a deep-seated risk of high inflation, with concerns that the May CPI suggests inflation will last longer than previously expected.</p><p>The minutes stated that the Federal Reserve policymakers at the meeting believed that, given that inflation was far above the Fed's target level, the Fed needed to shift to a restrictive policy stance to achieve the dual goals of full employment and price stability. Moreover, from a risk management perspective, the Federal Reserve is in a better position to tighten its restrictive measures once inflation is higher than expected.</p><p>many participants judged that,<b>One of the major risks facing the (FOMC) committee now is</b>,<b>If the public begins to doubt whether the committee can ensure its determination to adjust its policy stance, high inflation could become entrenched.</b>In this regard, participants emphasized that appropriately firm monetary policy, coupled with clear and effective communication, is crucial for restoring price stability. Regarding inflation, Federal Reserve officials at the meeting pointed out that inflation remains too high and continues to be well above the long-term target of 2%.</p><p>Participants<b>worry</b>,<b>May CPI data suggests that inflationary pressures show no signs of abating.</b>。 A number of people regard this as<b>This reinforced the view that inflation would last longer than they had previously expected.</b>。 There are upside risks to inflation, such as rising commodity prices. If inflation expectations get out of control, lowering inflation will come at a higher cost.</p><p>In assessing the economy, the Federal Reserve officials present emphasized that they are very concerned about inflation risks and closely monitor developments and changes related to inflation and inflation expectations.</p><p>Most participants believed the risks to inflation were upside and mentioned a variety of related risks, including ongoing supply bottlenecks and rising energy and commodity prices. Participants agreed that economic growth in the coming years is highly uncertain.</p><p>Most participants assessed that there were downside risks to the economic growth outlook, including that further tightening of financial conditions would have a greater negative impact on economic activity than expected, and that the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and China's epidemic prevention efforts on economic growth would exceed expectations.</p><p>Regarding inflation expectations, the minutes show that</p><p>While long-term inflation expectations from household surveys, professional forecasters, and market participants are generally consistent with the FOMC's long-term inflation target of 2%,<b>Many participants were concerned that long-term inflation expectations could begin to rise to levels below the 2% target. These participants pointed out that bringing inflation back to the FOMC target would be more costly if inflation expectations got out of control.</b>。 Market reaction</p><p>Following the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes in midday trading, U.S. stocks initially fell before quickly rebounding, with all three major U.S. stock indexes rising during the session.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7d417276ecc91e848c333fe109e392e\" tg-width=\"725\" tg-height=\"489\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>the US Dollar Index fluctuated upwards, breaking below 107.00 in the short term before quickly rebounding to 107.00, approaching the high since December 2002 set by US stocks in early trading at near 107.30.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0996cbbf2789acffe0ee8b062ca07b1e\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield continued its upward trend, rising above 2.90% after the minutes were released, and briefly broke through 2.92%, setting a new daily high. The intraday gain exceeded 10 basis points, rebounding about 17 basis points from the more than one-month low hit by European stocks during Wednesday's intraday test of 2.75%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fdc9bfee7abd837e8a41feed40e5761\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This article summarizes the key points from the minutes of last night's Federal Reserve meeting!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis article summarizes the key points from the minutes of last night's Federal Reserve meeting!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-07 07:01</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: At the June meeting, Federal Reserve officials believed that the July meeting might be suitable for a rate hike of 75 or 50 basis points; It will take time for inflation to fall to 2%, and rate hike may lead to a period of economic slowdown, but the key to full employment is to reduce inflation. There is currently a risk of entrenched high inflation, with concerns that the May CPI suggests inflation will last longer than previously expected; If inflation expectations get out of control, reducing inflation will come at a higher cost. Meeting minutes released on Wednesday, July 6, Eastern Time, showed that at the June monetary policy meeting, Federal Reserve officials acknowledged that rate hike could slow economic growth, but believed that the rate hike might need to last longer to prevent high inflation from becoming entrenched. Because the inflation outlook has deteriorated, interest rates need to be raised to restrictive levels that deliberately slow the economy.</p><p>The minutes also confirmed that the Fed will discuss at its meeting this month whether to continue its 75 basis point rate hike or slow it to 50 basis points.</p><p>Media commentators say that, given recent data showing a slightly slower economic growth, some investors believe the hawkish stance reiterated by the Federal Reserve at its June meeting is outdated. This drove US stocks higher during the session, and the three major indices, which had turned lower more than once during the session, completely reversed their downward trend.</p><p>The July meeting will consider whether to rate hike another 75 basis points.</p><p>The Federal Reserve decided to raise rate hike by 75 basis points at its June meeting, marking the largest rate hike in over 27 years. The meeting minutes show that, given the extremely tight labor market supply, inflation far exceeding the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Committee (FOMC) inflation target of 2%, and the fact that the near-term inflation outlook has deteriorated since the May Fed meeting, almost all Fed policymakers agreed with the June rate hike of 75 basis points, with only one voting against it because they supported the rate hike of 50 basis points.</p><p>In discussing possible policy actions at future meetings, participating officials continued to anticipate future rate hike, with the minutes specifically mentioning:</p><p>The participants decided that the next meeting (Wall Street Insights note: i.e.<b>July Meeting</b>)<b>May be suitable for 75 basis points or 50 basis points in rate hike</b>。<b>Participants</b>There is consensus that the economic outlook guarantees a restrictive stance in (monetary) policy. And they<b>Recognizing that if high inflationary pressures persist, the stance may become even more restrictive.</b>(even more restrictive). Inflation will take time to fall to 2%, and rate hike may lead to a period of economic slowdown.</p><p>The minutes show that at the June meeting, Federal Reserve policymakers expected it would take time to reduce inflation, and that suppressing inflation would come at the cost of a potential slowdown in economic growth.</p><p>Participants believed that the Russia-Ukraine conflict, China's epidemic prevention efforts, and other factors constraining the supply environment will affect the inflation outlook, and it may take some time for inflation to fall back to the Fed's target. Participants also concluded that maintaining a strong labor market in the process of bringing inflation down to 2% will depend on many factors affecting supply and demand. Participants recognized that firm policies could slow economic growth for a period of time, but they expected that bringing inflation back to 2% would be key to achieving sustained full employment. There is a deep-seated risk of high inflation, with concerns that the May CPI suggests inflation will last longer than previously expected.</p><p>The minutes stated that the Federal Reserve policymakers at the meeting believed that, given that inflation was far above the Fed's target level, the Fed needed to shift to a restrictive policy stance to achieve the dual goals of full employment and price stability. Moreover, from a risk management perspective, the Federal Reserve is in a better position to tighten its restrictive measures once inflation is higher than expected.</p><p>many participants judged that,<b>One of the major risks facing the (FOMC) committee now is</b>,<b>If the public begins to doubt whether the committee can ensure its determination to adjust its policy stance, high inflation could become entrenched.</b>In this regard, participants emphasized that appropriately firm monetary policy, coupled with clear and effective communication, is crucial for restoring price stability. Regarding inflation, Federal Reserve officials at the meeting pointed out that inflation remains too high and continues to be well above the long-term target of 2%.</p><p>Participants<b>worry</b>,<b>May CPI data suggests that inflationary pressures show no signs of abating.</b>。 A number of people regard this as<b>This reinforced the view that inflation would last longer than they had previously expected.</b>。 There are upside risks to inflation, such as rising commodity prices. If inflation expectations get out of control, lowering inflation will come at a higher cost.</p><p>In assessing the economy, the Federal Reserve officials present emphasized that they are very concerned about inflation risks and closely monitor developments and changes related to inflation and inflation expectations.</p><p>Most participants believed the risks to inflation were upside and mentioned a variety of related risks, including ongoing supply bottlenecks and rising energy and commodity prices. Participants agreed that economic growth in the coming years is highly uncertain.</p><p>Most participants assessed that there were downside risks to the economic growth outlook, including that further tightening of financial conditions would have a greater negative impact on economic activity than expected, and that the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and China's epidemic prevention efforts on economic growth would exceed expectations.</p><p>Regarding inflation expectations, the minutes show that</p><p>While long-term inflation expectations from household surveys, professional forecasters, and market participants are generally consistent with the FOMC's long-term inflation target of 2%,<b>Many participants were concerned that long-term inflation expectations could begin to rise to levels below the 2% target. These participants pointed out that bringing inflation back to the FOMC target would be more costly if inflation expectations got out of control.</b>。 Market reaction</p><p>Following the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes in midday trading, U.S. stocks initially fell before quickly rebounding, with all three major U.S. stock indexes rising during the session.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7d417276ecc91e848c333fe109e392e\" tg-width=\"725\" tg-height=\"489\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>the US Dollar Index fluctuated upwards, breaking below 107.00 in the short term before quickly rebounding to 107.00, approaching the high since December 2002 set by US stocks in early trading at near 107.30.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0996cbbf2789acffe0ee8b062ca07b1e\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield continued its upward trend, rising above 2.90% after the minutes were released, and briefly broke through 2.92%, setting a new daily high. The intraday gain exceeded 10 basis points, rebounding about 17 basis points from the more than one-month low hit by European stocks during Wednesday's intraday test of 2.75%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fdc9bfee7abd837e8a41feed40e5761\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664052\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/123472eab1159c5e881f8e540a346014","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664052","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1177613805","content_text":"摘要:6月会上美联储官员认为,7月会议可能适合加息75个基点或50个基点;通胀降至2%需要时间,加息可能导致一段时间经济放缓,但充分就业的关键是降通胀;目前有高通胀根深蒂固的风险,担心5月CPI暗示通胀会比之前预期持续得更久;若通胀预期失控,降通胀将付出更高代价。美东时间7月6日周三公布的会议纪要显示,6月货币政策会议上,美联储官员承认加息可能导致经济增长放慢,但认为,要避免高通胀变得根深蒂固,可能需要加息时间持续更久。因为通胀前景已恶化,需要让利率升至刻意让经济放缓的限制性水平。同时纪要确认了,联储将在本月的会议上讨论是继续加息75个基点,还是将幅度放缓到50个基点。媒体评论称,考虑到新近数据显示经济增长略为更加放缓,一些投资者认为,美联储在6月会上重申的鹰派立场已经过时。这推动美股盘中走高,盘中不止一次转跌的三大指数彻底摆脱跌势。7月会议考虑是否再加息75个基点美联储6月会议决定加息75个基点,为逾二十七年最大力度加息。本次会议纪要显示,因为考虑到劳动力市场供应非常紧张、通胀远高于美联储货币政策委员会FOMC的通胀目标2%、近期通胀前景自5月联储会议以来已经恶化,几乎所有联储决策者都同意6月加息75个基点,只有一人因支持加息50个基点而投反对票。在讨论未来几次会议可能采取的政策行动时,与会官员依然预期适合未来继续加息,纪要特别提到:与会者判定,下次会议(华尔街见闻注:即7月会议)可能适合加息75个基点或者50个基点。与会者一致认为,经济前景对(货币)政策步入限制性的立场有保障。而且他们认识到,如果高企的通胀压力持续,立场甚至可能要限制性更强(even more restrictive)。通胀降至2%需要时间 加息可能导致一段时间经济放缓纪要显示,6月会上,美联储决策者预计降低通胀需要时间,而且压低通胀将付出经济增长可能放缓的代价。与会者认为,俄乌冲突、中国防疫和其他限制供应环境的因素将影响通胀前景,让通胀回落到联储目标可能需要一些时间。与会者还判定,在让通胀降至2%的过程中,保持强劲的劳动力市场将取决于很多影响供需的因素。与会者认识到,坚定政策可能让经济增长一段时间内放缓,但他们预计,让通胀回到2%是实现持续充分就业的关键。有高通胀根深蒂固的风险 担心5月CPI暗示通胀比之前预期持续得更久纪要称,与会美联储决策者认为,由于通胀远高于联储目标水平,要实现充分就业和价格稳定的双重目标,美联储需要转变为限制性的政策立场。而且,从风险管理的角度看,因为一旦通胀高于预期,美联储就能处于加强限制性力度的更有利地位。很多(many)与会者判定,现在(FOMC)委员会面临的一大风险是,假如公众开始怀疑委员会能否确保调整政策立场的决心,高企的通胀可能变得根深蒂固。在这方面,与会者强调,适宜地坚定货币政策,加之清晰有效的沟通,都对恢复价格稳定至关重要。在通胀方面,与会联储官员指出,通胀仍旧太高,继续远高于长期目标2%。与会者担心,5月CPI数据暗示,通胀压力还未显示减弱的迹象。多人(a number of)将此视为强化了通胀会比他们之前预期的更持久这一观点。通胀有大宗商品涨价等上行风险 若通胀预期失控 降通胀将付出更高代价在评估经济时,与会美联储官员强调,他们非常关注通胀风险,密切监控通胀以及通胀预期相关的发展变化。大多数与会者认为通胀的风险偏上行,并提到多种相关风险,包括持续的供应瓶颈、能源和大宗商品价格上涨。与会者认定,未来几年经济增长的不确定性很高。大部分与会者评估认为,经济增长的前景有偏下行的风险,下行风险包括,金融环境进一步收紧会对经济活动造成比预期更大的负面影响,以及俄乌冲突和中国防疫对经济增长的影响超出预期。在通胀预期方面,纪要显示,虽然来自家庭调查、专业预测方和市场参与者的长期通胀预期指标总体和FOMC委员会的长期通胀目标2%保持一致,但很多与会者担心,长期通胀预期可能开始上行至不符合2%目标的水平。这些与会者指出,假如通胀预期变得失控,让通胀回落到FOMC目标将付出更高的代价。市场反应午盘时段美联储会议纪要公布后,美股先回落后很快短线拉升,三大美股指盘中齐涨。美元指数震荡上行,短线下破107.00后迅速重上107.00,逼近美股早盘时逼近107.30所创的2002年12月以来高位。基准10年期美国国债收益率保持升势,纪要公布后站上2.90%,一度升破2.92%刷新日高,日内升幅超过10个基点,较周三欧股盘中下测2.75%所创的一个多月来低位回升约17个基点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4942,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9070278186,"gmtCreate":1657070331345,"gmtModify":1676535943875,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577532473997426","idStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9070278186","repostId":"2249531093","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2249531093","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1657057020,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2249531093?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-06 05:37","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Foreign media headlines | Oil prices led the decline and commodities plummeted! Recession fears trigger knock-on effects","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2249531093","media":"环球市场播报","summary":" 由于各国央行的紧缩货币政策和对经济衰退的担忧,大宗商品市场继续上周的行情,呈现下降趋势。 每盎司黄金价格为1784美元,创2022年1月以来的最低水平,连续第三周下跌。 当地时间5日,英国卫生大臣赛义德·贾维德和财政大臣里希·苏纳克因对首相约翰逊失去信心而从政府辞职。 贾维德在社交媒体表示,自己已向首相约翰逊递交辞呈。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>The headlines that the global financial media paid common attention to last night and this morning mainly include:</b></p><p><b>1. Economic recession worries trigger chain effect commodities continue last week's downward trend</b><b>2. Britain's Health Secretary and Chancellor of the Exchequer resign after losing confidence in Prime Minister</b><b>3. The 2-5-year yield curve was once inverted under the worry of recession in the US debt</b><b>4. U.S. WTI crude oil plunged 8.2% and fell below the $100 mark</b><b>5. Inflation adds to injury U.S. coal prices hit record highs amid global energy crunch</b><b>6. \"Sister Wood\": The Federal Reserve has panicked and deflation has occurred in the economy</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0ba44941aea6899b18b42d54ee27498\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"342\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Recession fears trigger knock-on effects Commodities continue last week's downward trend</b></p><p>Commodity markets continued last week's run and showed a downward trend amid tightening monetary policies by central banks and fears of a recession.</p><p>While this week's global macroeconomic data indicated a slowdown in economic activity, instructions from key central bank officials, indicating the continuation of current monetary policy, also negatively affected investors' risk appetite.</p><p>Fears of a global recession have also supported demand for the US dollar;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">the US Dollar Index</a>It closed last week at 105.1, its highest weekly close since December 2002.</p><p>The price of gold per ounce was $1,784, its lowest level since January 2022, and its third straight weekly decline.</p><p>Last week, silver fell 6%, platinum fell 2.2%, its lowest level since July 2020, while palladium rose 4.5%.</p><p>Copper reached its lowest level since February 2021, closing down 4.3% last week. Lead lost 1.3%, aluminum lost 0.8%, nickel lost 1.5%, and zinc lost 12.5%. Copper is losing value after fears of a global economic slowdown mounted. While investors have avoided zinc due to limited supply, nickel prices have risen as inventories dwindle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12a2ca7cedc11ebe7e2e2b9509f302ad\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>UK Health Secretary and Chancellor of the Exchequer resign over loss of confidence in PM</b></p><p>On the 5th local time, British Health Secretary Syed Javid and Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak resigned from the government because they lost confidence in Prime Minister Johnson.</p><p>Javid said on social media that he had submitted his resignation to Prime Minister Johnson. Javid said it was a great honor to take on the role, but he regretted not being able to continue working in good conscience.</p><p>In his resignation, Sunak said: \"The public expects the government to run the country correctly, competently and conscientiously. I believe these standards are worth fighting for and our country is facing enormous challenges, which is why I resigned.\"</p><p>On the same day, Prime Minister Johnson publicly apologized for his careless employment and appointment of Christopher Pincher, the deputy whip of the Conservative Party, to the government.</p><p>Christopher Pincher, the Conservative deputy whip previously appointed by Johnson, was exposed to \"salty pig hands\" and resigned on June 30. However, Pincher was subsequently exposed to more misconduct, raising questions about whether Johnson knew his character and still entrusted him with important responsibilities.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/514059be8955847da37d6a25e09bd003\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The 2-5-year yield curve was once inverted under the fear of recession in US bonds</b></p><p>The wildest move in the U.S. bond market in years has left traders unable to enjoy the summer vacation.</p><p>A closely watched volatility gauge soared to its highest level since the market collapsed in March 2020 because of the pandemic.</p><p>On the one hand, persistent inflation and the Federal Reserve's commitment to tightening policy have caused the fiercest selloff of U.S. bonds in at least half a century; on the other hand, the risk of economic recession has risen, which has been pulling down yields as investors use the U.S. Treasury Bond as a safe haven asset.</p><p>The two forces saw each other repeatedly on Tuesday. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield once rose 10 basis points to 2.98% in overseas trading, but later, due to the resurgence of economic worries, the yield rally reversed, falling to a low of 2.8%.</p><p>Intraday, at one point, the 2-year yield was slightly above the 10-year yield for the first time since mid-June, and above the 5-year yield for the first time since March 2020. This inversion of the curve suggests that the market believes that a slowdown will eventually lead to a downward trend in short-term interest rates.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93fee98819f0f2a3ddb6fd8d84b501ed\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>U.S. WTI crude plunges 8.2% below $100 mark</b></p><p>In the early morning of the 6th, Beijing time, crude oil futures prices closed sharply on Tuesday, and WTI crude oil futures in the United States fell below the $100 per barrel mark, the lowest closing price in two months.</p><p>Oil prices were weighed down by a stronger dollar and concerns that a recession could hurt the outlook for energy demand.</p><p>Analysts pointed out that the decline in crude oil futures prices is inevitable, because the negative impact of oil price companies on demand and economy has become increasingly obvious when the crude oil market is repriced after fears of sanctions give way to the reality that Russia sells oil to new buyers in Asia.</p><p>The futures price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed down $8.93, or 8.24%, to close at $99.50 per barrel, the largest decline since mid-March and the lowest closing price since May 10th.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12b08931cd23d4667b9bd6c90fe32c9b\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Inflation adds to injury U.S. coal prices hit record highs amid global energy crunch</b></p><p>A sharp rise in global electricity demand, rising summer temperatures and limited supply of the most polluting fossil fuels have seen US coal prices rise above record highs.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">U.S. Energy</a>The Illinois Basin spot coal price soared $190.25 per short ton in the week ending July 1, according to data released Tuesday by the Information Administration. Central Appalachian coal prices also jumped to $168.05 per short ton.</p><p>The price was the highest since 2005, surpassing the peak in 2008. Supply disruptions elsewhere have pushed up demand for U.S. coal.</p><p>The Russia-Ukraine conflict has disrupted energy markets, with power producers around the world struggling to secure coal and gas supplies to keep generating electricity. Yet American suppliers have been closing mines for years and are now struggling to meet soaring consumption demand.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18f1b02017ee06f402c5b5800c4d8014\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>\"Wood Sister\": The Federal Reserve has panicked and deflation has occurred in the economy</b></p><p>Cathie Wood, founder and CEO of ARK Invest, said In the latest episode of the In the Know podcast that the Fed's aggressive raising of interest rates shows it has \"panicked.\"</p><p>Wood argues that policymakers care more about its historical reputation than the economy. Indicators in the inflation data suggest that \"the Fed is making a big mistake\" and that \"there has been a lot of deflation in the economy\".</p><p>Wood said last week that the U.S. economy was in recession. Industry veterans believe the Fed will have to take tougher measures to curb inflation. She believes that the Fed has triggered the switch for deflation.</p><p>As for the current cryptocurrency market, Wood described her position as \"neutral to positive\" in the short term and said she \"feels much better\" about the cryptocurrency industry.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Foreign media headlines | Oil prices led the decline and commodities plummeted! Recession fears trigger knock-on effects</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForeign media headlines | Oil prices led the decline and commodities plummeted! Recession fears trigger knock-on effects\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">环球市场播报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-06 05:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>The headlines that the global financial media paid common attention to last night and this morning mainly include:</b></p><p><b>1. Economic recession worries trigger chain effect commodities continue last week's downward trend</b><b>2. Britain's Health Secretary and Chancellor of the Exchequer resign after losing confidence in Prime Minister</b><b>3. The 2-5-year yield curve was once inverted under the worry of recession in the US debt</b><b>4. U.S. WTI crude oil plunged 8.2% and fell below the $100 mark</b><b>5. Inflation adds to injury U.S. coal prices hit record highs amid global energy crunch</b><b>6. \"Sister Wood\": The Federal Reserve has panicked and deflation has occurred in the economy</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0ba44941aea6899b18b42d54ee27498\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"342\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Recession fears trigger knock-on effects Commodities continue last week's downward trend</b></p><p>Commodity markets continued last week's run and showed a downward trend amid tightening monetary policies by central banks and fears of a recession.</p><p>While this week's global macroeconomic data indicated a slowdown in economic activity, instructions from key central bank officials, indicating the continuation of current monetary policy, also negatively affected investors' risk appetite.</p><p>Fears of a global recession have also supported demand for the US dollar;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">the US Dollar Index</a>It closed last week at 105.1, its highest weekly close since December 2002.</p><p>The price of gold per ounce was $1,784, its lowest level since January 2022, and its third straight weekly decline.</p><p>Last week, silver fell 6%, platinum fell 2.2%, its lowest level since July 2020, while palladium rose 4.5%.</p><p>Copper reached its lowest level since February 2021, closing down 4.3% last week. Lead lost 1.3%, aluminum lost 0.8%, nickel lost 1.5%, and zinc lost 12.5%. Copper is losing value after fears of a global economic slowdown mounted. While investors have avoided zinc due to limited supply, nickel prices have risen as inventories dwindle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12a2ca7cedc11ebe7e2e2b9509f302ad\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>UK Health Secretary and Chancellor of the Exchequer resign over loss of confidence in PM</b></p><p>On the 5th local time, British Health Secretary Syed Javid and Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak resigned from the government because they lost confidence in Prime Minister Johnson.</p><p>Javid said on social media that he had submitted his resignation to Prime Minister Johnson. Javid said it was a great honor to take on the role, but he regretted not being able to continue working in good conscience.</p><p>In his resignation, Sunak said: \"The public expects the government to run the country correctly, competently and conscientiously. I believe these standards are worth fighting for and our country is facing enormous challenges, which is why I resigned.\"</p><p>On the same day, Prime Minister Johnson publicly apologized for his careless employment and appointment of Christopher Pincher, the deputy whip of the Conservative Party, to the government.</p><p>Christopher Pincher, the Conservative deputy whip previously appointed by Johnson, was exposed to \"salty pig hands\" and resigned on June 30. However, Pincher was subsequently exposed to more misconduct, raising questions about whether Johnson knew his character and still entrusted him with important responsibilities.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/514059be8955847da37d6a25e09bd003\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The 2-5-year yield curve was once inverted under the fear of recession in US bonds</b></p><p>The wildest move in the U.S. bond market in years has left traders unable to enjoy the summer vacation.</p><p>A closely watched volatility gauge soared to its highest level since the market collapsed in March 2020 because of the pandemic.</p><p>On the one hand, persistent inflation and the Federal Reserve's commitment to tightening policy have caused the fiercest selloff of U.S. bonds in at least half a century; on the other hand, the risk of economic recession has risen, which has been pulling down yields as investors use the U.S. Treasury Bond as a safe haven asset.</p><p>The two forces saw each other repeatedly on Tuesday. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield once rose 10 basis points to 2.98% in overseas trading, but later, due to the resurgence of economic worries, the yield rally reversed, falling to a low of 2.8%.</p><p>Intraday, at one point, the 2-year yield was slightly above the 10-year yield for the first time since mid-June, and above the 5-year yield for the first time since March 2020. This inversion of the curve suggests that the market believes that a slowdown will eventually lead to a downward trend in short-term interest rates.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93fee98819f0f2a3ddb6fd8d84b501ed\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>U.S. WTI crude plunges 8.2% below $100 mark</b></p><p>In the early morning of the 6th, Beijing time, crude oil futures prices closed sharply on Tuesday, and WTI crude oil futures in the United States fell below the $100 per barrel mark, the lowest closing price in two months.</p><p>Oil prices were weighed down by a stronger dollar and concerns that a recession could hurt the outlook for energy demand.</p><p>Analysts pointed out that the decline in crude oil futures prices is inevitable, because the negative impact of oil price companies on demand and economy has become increasingly obvious when the crude oil market is repriced after fears of sanctions give way to the reality that Russia sells oil to new buyers in Asia.</p><p>The futures price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed down $8.93, or 8.24%, to close at $99.50 per barrel, the largest decline since mid-March and the lowest closing price since May 10th.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12b08931cd23d4667b9bd6c90fe32c9b\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Inflation adds to injury U.S. coal prices hit record highs amid global energy crunch</b></p><p>A sharp rise in global electricity demand, rising summer temperatures and limited supply of the most polluting fossil fuels have seen US coal prices rise above record highs.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">U.S. Energy</a>The Illinois Basin spot coal price soared $190.25 per short ton in the week ending July 1, according to data released Tuesday by the Information Administration. Central Appalachian coal prices also jumped to $168.05 per short ton.</p><p>The price was the highest since 2005, surpassing the peak in 2008. Supply disruptions elsewhere have pushed up demand for U.S. coal.</p><p>The Russia-Ukraine conflict has disrupted energy markets, with power producers around the world struggling to secure coal and gas supplies to keep generating electricity. Yet American suppliers have been closing mines for years and are now struggling to meet soaring consumption demand.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18f1b02017ee06f402c5b5800c4d8014\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>\"Wood Sister\": The Federal Reserve has panicked and deflation has occurred in the economy</b></p><p>Cathie Wood, founder and CEO of ARK Invest, said In the latest episode of the In the Know podcast that the Fed's aggressive raising of interest rates shows it has \"panicked.\"</p><p>Wood argues that policymakers care more about its historical reputation than the economy. Indicators in the inflation data suggest that \"the Fed is making a big mistake\" and that \"there has been a lot of deflation in the economy\".</p><p>Wood said last week that the U.S. economy was in recession. Industry veterans believe the Fed will have to take tougher measures to curb inflation. She believes that the Fed has triggered the switch for deflation.</p><p>As for the current cryptocurrency market, Wood described her position as \"neutral to positive\" in the short term and said she \"feels much better\" about the cryptocurrency industry.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-07-06/doc-imizirav2091453.shtml?finpagefr=p_115\">环球市场播报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18f1b02017ee06f402c5b5800c4d8014","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-07-06/doc-imizirav2091453.shtml?finpagefr=p_115","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2249531093","content_text":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有:1、经济衰退担忧引发连锁效应 大宗商品继续上周下行大势2、英国卫生大臣和财政大臣因对首相失去信心而辞职3、美债掀起惊涛 衰退担忧下2-5年期收益率曲线一度倒挂4、美国WTI原油重挫8.2% 跌破100美元关口5、通胀雪上加霜 美国煤炭价格在全球能源紧缺中创下历史新高6、“木头姐”:美联储已经慌了 经济中已出现通缩经济衰退担忧引发连锁效应 大宗商品继续上周下行大势由于各国央行的紧缩货币政策和对经济衰退的担忧,大宗商品市场继续上周的行情,呈现下降趋势。虽然本周全球宏观经济数据表明经济活动放缓,但央行主要官员发出的指示,表明继续实施当前的货币政策,也对投资者的风险偏好产生了负面影响。对全球衰退的担忧也支撑了对美元的需求;美元指数上周收于105.1点,为2002年12月以来的最高周收盘价。每盎司黄金价格为1784美元,创2022年1月以来的最低水平,连续第三周下跌。上周,白银下跌6%,铂金下跌2.2%,为2020年7月以来的最低水平,而钯金上涨4.5%。铜价创下2021年2月份以来的最低水平,上周收盘下跌4.3%。铅损失1.3%,铝损失0.8%,镍损失1.5%,锌损失12.5%。对全球经济放缓的担忧加剧后,铜正在贬值。虽然投资者因供应有限而避开锌,但镍价格随着库存的减少而上涨。英国卫生大臣和财政大臣因对首相失去信心而辞职当地时间5日,英国卫生大臣赛义德·贾维德和财政大臣里希·苏纳克因对首相约翰逊失去信心而从政府辞职。贾维德在社交媒体表示,自己已向首相约翰逊递交辞呈。贾维德称,担任这个角色是一种巨大的荣幸,但自己很遗憾不能再凭良心继续工作下去。苏纳克在辞呈中表示:“公众期望政府能够正确、称职和认真地管理国家。我相信这些标准值得为之奋斗,而我们的国家正面临着巨大的挑战,这就是我辞职的原因。”当天,首相约翰逊为自己用人不察、任命保守党副党鞭克里斯托弗·平彻担任政府职务而公开道歉。此前由约翰逊任命的保守党副党鞭克里斯托弗·平彻被曝“咸猪手”,并于6月30日辞职。然而,平彻后续被曝出更多不端行为,引发舆论对约翰逊是否明知其品行仍委以重任的质疑。美债掀起惊涛 衰退担忧下2-5年期收益率曲线一度倒挂美债市场多年来最疯狂的走势令交易员们无暇享受暑假。一个备受关注的的波动率指标飙升至2020年3月市场因为疫情而崩盘以来的最高水平。一方面,持续存在的通胀和美联储紧缩政策承诺令美债遭遇至少半个世纪以来最猛烈的抛售,另一方面,经济衰退的风险上升,在投资者将美国国债作为避险资产时,这个隐忧一直在下拉收益率水平。两股力量周二反复拉锯, 基准10年期美国国债收益率在海外交易中一度上涨10个基点至2.98%,但后来由于经济忧虑再度涌现,收益率涨势逆转,最低跌到了2.8%。盘中,2年期收益率一度自6月中旬以来首次略高于10年期收益率,并且自2020年3月以来首次高于5年期收益率。这种曲线倒挂现象表明市场认为经济放缓最终会导致短期利率下行。美国WTI原油重挫8.2% 跌破100美元关口北京时间6日凌晨,原油期货价格周二大幅收跌,美国WTI原油期货跌破每桶100美元关口,创两个月来的最低收盘价。美元走强以及对经济衰退可能损害能源需求前景的担忧情绪令油价承压。分析师指出,原油期货价格的下跌不可避免,因为在对制裁的担忧让位于俄罗斯向亚洲新买家出售石油的现实,原油市场重新定价,油价企对需求和经济的负面影响已变得越来越明显。纽约商品交易所8月交割的西德州中质原油(WTI)期货价格收跌8.93美元,跌幅为8.24%,报收于每桶99.50美元,创3月中旬以来最大跌幅,以及5月10日以来的最低收盘价。通胀雪上加霜 美国煤炭价格在全球能源紧缺中创下历史新高全球电力需求大幅走高、夏季气温上升加之污染最重的化石燃料供应有限,美国煤炭价格涨破历史最高水平。美国能源信息管理局周二发布的数据显示,截至7月1日当周,伊利诺伊盆地煤炭现货价格飙升每短吨190.25美元。阿巴拉契亚中部煤价也跃升至每短吨168.05美元。上述价格创出2005年以来的最高纪录,超过了2008年的峰值。其他地区的供应受阻推高了对美国煤炭的需求。俄乌冲突扰乱了能源市场,世界各地的电力生产商都在竭力保障煤和天然气供应以保持发电。然而美国供应商多年来一直在关闭矿山,现在难以满足飙升的消耗需求。“木头姐”:美联储已经慌了 经济中已出现通缩ARK Invest创始人兼首席执行官Cathie Wood在最新一期的In the Know播客中表示,美联储如此激进地提高利率表明其已经“惊慌失措”。Wood认为,政策制定者更关心其历史声誉而不是经济。通胀数据中的指标表明“美联储正在犯一个大错误”,“经济中已经出现了很多通缩”。Wood曾在上周表示,美国经济已经陷入衰退。行业资深人士认为,美联储将不得不采取更严厉的措施来遏制通胀。她相信,美联储已经触动了通缩的开关。至于当前的加密货币市场,Wood将她的立场描述为短期内“中性至正面”,并表示对加密货币行业“感觉好多了”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5379,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9070016652,"gmtCreate":1656983485676,"gmtModify":1676535926692,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577532473997426","idStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9070016652","repostId":"2249419340","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5805,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9047016978,"gmtCreate":1656827322694,"gmtModify":1676535901157,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577532473997426","idStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9047016978","repostId":"2248136877","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4857,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9044616288,"gmtCreate":1656742454744,"gmtModify":1676535888492,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577532473997426","idStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9044616288","repostId":"1164878609","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1164878609","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1656718507,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1164878609?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-02 07:35","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Last Night and This Morning | US stocks had a thrilling start to the second half of the year, with most popular Chinese concept stocks rising.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164878609","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要:美股下半年首日迎来上涨,半导体板块逆势下跌;热门中概股大多走高,新能源汽车股高开低走;已故苹果联合创始人乔布斯被追授美国总统自由勋章;370亿美元大采购!三大航企齐出手,拟购入近300架空客飞机","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: US stocks rose on the first day of the second half of the year, while the semiconductor sector bucked the trend and fell; Most popular Chinese concept stocks rose, while new energy vehicle stocks opened higher but closed lower. deceased<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Co-founder Steve Jobs was posthumously awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom; A $37 billion purchase! The three major airlines have joined forces to purchase nearly 300 Airbus aircraft.<b>Overseas markets</b></p><p><b>Closing: US stocks rose on the first day of the second half of the year, while the semiconductor sector bucked the trend and fell.</b></p><p>US stocks rose on the first trading day of the second half of the year. Despite the volatile intraday performance, the three major indices ultimately managed to close higher amidst the fluctuations. At the close of trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 321.83 points, or 1.05%, to 31,097.26. The Nasdaq rose 99.11 points, or 0.90%, to 11,127.85. The S&P 500 rose 39.95 points, or 1.06%, to 3,825.33.</p><p>Among large tech stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Apple rose more than 3%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It rose more than 1%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Rising 1.07%, Meta fell 0.76%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>It rose 2.9%.</p><p>The chip sector has been severely impacted, with several chipmakers stating that rising inflation and a cooling economy are reducing consumer and business spending, and global chip demand will weaken.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ONNN\">ON Semiconductor</a>Semiconductors fell nearly 7%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>Dutch chipmakers plunged 5.81%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">Asma</a>It plummeted 5.47%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>It fell more than 4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STM\">STMicroelectronics</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>It fell more than 3%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>It fell by nearly 3%.</p><p><b>Most popular Chinese concept stocks rose, while new energy vehicle stocks opened higher but closed lower.</b></p><p>Most popular Chinese concept stocks rose, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising 1.26%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>It rose more than 4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQiyi</a>It rose more than 3%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>It rose more than 2%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">Douyu</a>It rose 5%, while JD.com rose 2.7%. Among emerging electric vehicle manufacturers,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>Down 4.6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Down 1.59%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>It fell 1.66%.</p><p><b>European stocks closed mixed, with Germany's DAX 30 up 0.25%.</b></p><p>Major European indices closed mixed, with Germany's DAX 30 up 0.25%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index fell 0.02%, the French CAC40 rose 0.14%, and the European Stoxx 50 fell 0.17%.</p><p><b>New York WTI crude oil closed up 2.5% on Friday, up 0.8% for the week.</b></p><p>WTI crude oil futures for August delivery rose 2.52% to $108.43 a barrel, breaking away from the low hit on Thursday since last Thursday; Brent crude oil futures for September delivery rose 2.38% to $111.63 a barrel, erasing most of Thursday's 3% decline. US crude oil rose 0.8% this week, ending a two-week losing streak, while Brent crude oil, which was flat last week, rose 2.3%. US crude oil fell 7.8% in June, and Brent crude oil fell 6.5%, ending a six-month winning streak. However, both the second quarter and the first half of the year saw cumulative gains.</p><p><b>New York gold futures once fell below $1,800.</b></p><p>New York gold futures prices closed lower on Friday, briefly falling below the key $1,800 mark during the session. Gold futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $5.80, or 0.3%, to settle at $1,801.50 an ounce, their lowest closing price since February. On Friday, the futures price briefly fell below $1,800, dropping to a low of $1,783.40. Silver futures for September delivery fell 68 cents, or 3.4%, to settle at $19.667 an ounce, their lowest closing price since July 2020.</p><p><b>International macro</b></p><p><b>Leading indicators show that the U.S. economy is on the verge of danger, with a recession rapidly approaching.</b></p><p>By now, the economic recession seems to have become a consensus. In fact, the Leading Enterprise Indicator (LEI) of the World Enterprise Institute suggests that a recession in the United States may be rapidly approaching. This leading indicator includes many market and economic indicators, such as the number of first-time jobless claims, manufacturing surveys, and stock prices. Guggenheim economist Matt Bush found that four consecutive declines in the monthly LEI typically indicate that the U.S. economy has entered a recession. As of May, the LEI had fallen for three consecutive months. Given the decline in US stocks and the drop in new orders for ISM manufacturing, there is a high probability that the LEI will fall again in June. This sign does not bode well for efforts to achieve a soft landing for the U.S. economy.</p><p><b>The Fed's July rate hike of 75 basis points is almost a certainty: dovish officials and the San Francisco Fed president have joined the ranks of supporters.</b></p><p>San Francisco Fed President Daly, who has always been considered a dovish figure within the Federal Reserve, said that inflation in the United States is too high and the Fed must maintain its path of monetary policy tightening. \"I support the Federal Reserve further rate hike by 75 basis points in July.\"</p><p><b>The U.S. ISM manufacturing index hit a two-year low in June, with both new orders and the employment index contracting.</b></p><p>On Friday, data released by ISM showed that the U.S. ISM manufacturing sector hit a two-year low in June, dragged down by weak new orders and contraction. The inventory index is near its highest level since 2010. The decline in supplier delivery and order backlog indices suggests that supply chain and capacity constraints appear to be easing. ISM data further proves that demand for U.S. goods is slowing.</p><p><b>Eurozone harmonized CPI rose 8.6% year-on-year in June, exceeding expectations and setting a new record high.</b></p><p>The Eurozone's reconciled CPI in June was 8.6% year-on-year, compared to the expected 8.5% and the previous value of 8.1%. The preliminary value of the core harmonized CPI year-on-year was 3.7%, compared with the expected 3.9% and the previous value of 3.8%.</p><p><b>OPEC crude oil production fell for the second consecutive month in June.</b></p><p>According to media investigations, OPEC's production decreased by 120,000 barrels per day in June. In addition to the UAE exceeding its target, Nigeria's daily production decreased by 100,000 barrels in June, Saudi Arabia's daily production was about 210,000 barrels below its target quota, and Kuwait also failed to meet its target, with daily production falling by 50,000 barrels.</p><p><b>Several natural gas and electricity supply giants in Northern Ireland announced significant price increases.</b></p><p>Gas suppliers SSE Airtricity and Firmus Energy raised their gas and electricity prices by 42.7% and 24.5%, respectively, while Power suppliers Power NI and Click Energy raised their gas and electricity prices by 27.5% and 11%, respectively. The report states that suppliers' own submissions are attributed to persistently high wholesale energy prices.</p><p><b>Venice has announced an entry fee for tourists starting in January 2023.</b></p><p>Venturini, the cultural director of Venice, Italy, announced that starting January 16, 2023, an entrance fee will be levied on tourists arriving and leaving the city center and islands of Venice on the same day. At that time, travelers not staying in Venice will pay an entrance fee of 3 to 10 euros, depending on the booking situation, and violators will be fined 50 to 300 euros. Venice residents, students, commuters, relatives, and residents of the Veneto region do not need to pay entry fees.</p><p><b>The latest poll shows that 71% of Americans do not want Biden to run for president of*.</b></p><p>According to The Hill, a recent Harvard University CAPS-Harris poll shows that 71% of respondents believe Biden should not run for a second presidential term. Among those surveyed who believe Biden should not continue running, 45% said Biden is a terrible president, about a third said he is too old, and about a quarter said it is time for a change. In addition, 61% of respondents believe that former President Trump should not run again in 2024.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>US mid-year economic growth forecast lowered</b></p><p>JPMorgan economists lowered their mid-year U.S. economic growth forecasts after most of the data released this week was weak, most notably a slowdown in consumer spending. The bank lowered its second-quarter U.S. GDP forecast to 1% from 2.5% and its third-quarter GDP forecast to 1% from 2%.</p><p><b>Thousands of flights in the United States were delayed or canceled due to worker shortages and bad weather</b></p><p>As of 10:30 a.m. Eastern Time on July 1, more than 1,200 flights entering and leaving the United States or transiting through the United States had been delayed, and another 238 flights had been canceled. It is understood that the flight delays and cancellations occurred in early July as the United States was about to experience a long-term earthquake. According to the American Automobile Association (AAA), approximately 47.9 million people will travel from January 1st to 4th local time, of which approximately 3.55 million are expected to travel by air. Over the past week, thousands of flights have been disrupted due to worker shortages and severe weather, despite airlines reducing their flights during the peak summer period from June to August by 15% to ensure the remaining flights operate normally.</p><p><b>The New York State Senate passed a bill to ban the carrying of firearms in \"sensitive places\"</b></p><p>The New York State Senate passed a bill banning the carrying of firearms in \"sensitive locations,\" including Times Square and all public transportation facilities. According to the legislation, no one except law enforcement officers, security personnel, active-duty military personnel, and public security personnel can carry firearms in \"sensitive locations,\" including subways, trains, buses, ferries, government buildings, churches, schools, libraries, public playgrounds, parks, zoos, homeless shelters, and polling stations. The bill will next be voted on in the state legislature. If it passes, it will be sent to the New York Governor's office to await the governor's signature into law.</p><p><b>The U.S. Department of Defense announced an additional $820 million in military aid to Ukraine.</b></p><p>On July 1 local time, the U.S. Department of Defense announced an additional $820 million in military aid to Ukraine, including new surface-to-air missile systems and anti-artillery radars, as well as more ammunition for the HIMAS high-mobility multiple rocket launcher system. The plan reportedly includes $770 million in security assistance funding for Ukraine, allowing the Department of Defense to directly provide funding to contractors to supply weapons to Ukraine, and $50 million in presidential \"withdrawal authorization\" to allow the shipment of weapons from U.S. inventories.</p><p><b>Company News</b></p><p><b>Meta will close its cryptocurrency project Novi in September.</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a>The cryptocurrency project, which once drew heavy attacks from the company's founder, Mark Zuckerberg, in Congress, will now officially shut down the remaining parts of the project. Meta stated on its website regarding its test project Novi that it will cease service on September 1st. Novi provides transfer services using Meta's own cryptocurrency digital wallet. The company stated that both the Novi app and Novi on WhatsApp will no longer be available. Starting July 21, users will no longer be able to top up their accounts and are advised to withdraw their balances \"as soon as possible\". After the test period ends, users will not be able to access their transaction history or other data. A Meta spokesperson stated that the company does plan to use Novi's technology in future products, such as its metaverse project.</p><p><b>The automotive industry's downturn continues; GM's Q2 sales plummeted 15%, but it is expected to top the sales charts.</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">general motors</a>Data released Friday showed that the company's car sales fell 15% in the second quarter as a global chip shortage and supply chain disruptions impacted production, leaving nearly 100,000 vehicles waiting for parts. GM stated that its vehicle sales in the second quarter of 2022 were 582,401 units, compared to 688,236 units in the same period last year. General Motors has long been the best-selling car brand in the United States, but the company relinquished that position last year to...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TM\">Toyota</a>This marks the first time General Motors has lost its sales crown in the U.S. domestic automobile market since 1931. However, according to data from market research firm Cox Automotive, GM is still expected to regain the top spot in car sales this quarter, as industry-wide supply disruptions have also affected other automakers' inventories.</p><p><b>The late Apple co-founder Steve Jobs was posthumously awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom.</b></p><p>On Friday local time, U.S. President Joe Biden announced a list of 17 recipients of the Presidential Medal of Freedom, including the late Apple co-founder Steve Jobs. The award is the highest civilian honor in the United States, and the White House says the winner \"embodies the soul of the nation.\"</p><p><b>Amazon compromises with the EU: adding an \"unsubscribe\" button to Prime paid services.</b></p><p>After receiving complaints from multiple consumer groups around the world, Amazon has finally made adjustments, allowing users to easily cancel their subscriptions to the \"Amazon Prime\" service. This adjustment will apply to all EU websites, as well as desktop devices, mobile phones and tablets, and will take effect immediately.</p><p><b>A $37 billion purchase! The three major airlines have joined forces to purchase nearly 300 Airbus aircraft.</b></p><p>Friday night<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600115\">China Eastern</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601111\">Air China</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZNH\">Southern Airlines</a>They have all announced that they have signed aircraft purchase agreements with Airbus, with the three companies purchasing a total of 292 A320NEO series aircraft for a total amount of US$37.2 billion. All three companies gave their respective reasons for purchasing the devices, and in their announcements,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CEA\">Eastern Airlines</a>It was mentioned that, based on confidence in the future development of the civil aviation industry, the company needs to plan and reserve its fleet capacity in advance.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00753\">Air China</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600029\">Southern Airlines</a>All stated that this aircraft transaction aligns with the company's fleet development strategy formulated in its 14th Five-Year Plan and will help enhance the company's market competitiveness.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last Night and This Morning | US stocks had a thrilling start to the second half of the year, with most popular Chinese concept stocks rising.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast Night and This Morning | US stocks had a thrilling start to the second half of the year, with most popular Chinese concept stocks rising.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-07-02 07:35</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: US stocks rose on the first day of the second half of the year, while the semiconductor sector bucked the trend and fell; Most popular Chinese concept stocks rose, while new energy vehicle stocks opened higher but closed lower. deceased<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Co-founder Steve Jobs was posthumously awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom; A $37 billion purchase! The three major airlines have joined forces to purchase nearly 300 Airbus aircraft.<b>Overseas markets</b></p><p><b>Closing: US stocks rose on the first day of the second half of the year, while the semiconductor sector bucked the trend and fell.</b></p><p>US stocks rose on the first trading day of the second half of the year. Despite the volatile intraday performance, the three major indices ultimately managed to close higher amidst the fluctuations. At the close of trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 321.83 points, or 1.05%, to 31,097.26. The Nasdaq rose 99.11 points, or 0.90%, to 11,127.85. The S&P 500 rose 39.95 points, or 1.06%, to 3,825.33.</p><p>Among large tech stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Apple rose more than 3%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It rose more than 1%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Rising 1.07%, Meta fell 0.76%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>It rose 2.9%.</p><p>The chip sector has been severely impacted, with several chipmakers stating that rising inflation and a cooling economy are reducing consumer and business spending, and global chip demand will weaken.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ONNN\">ON Semiconductor</a>Semiconductors fell nearly 7%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>Dutch chipmakers plunged 5.81%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">Asma</a>It plummeted 5.47%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>It fell more than 4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STM\">STMicroelectronics</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>It fell more than 3%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>It fell by nearly 3%.</p><p><b>Most popular Chinese concept stocks rose, while new energy vehicle stocks opened higher but closed lower.</b></p><p>Most popular Chinese concept stocks rose, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising 1.26%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>It rose more than 4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQiyi</a>It rose more than 3%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>It rose more than 2%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">Douyu</a>It rose 5%, while JD.com rose 2.7%. Among emerging electric vehicle manufacturers,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>Down 4.6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Down 1.59%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>It fell 1.66%.</p><p><b>European stocks closed mixed, with Germany's DAX 30 up 0.25%.</b></p><p>Major European indices closed mixed, with Germany's DAX 30 up 0.25%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index fell 0.02%, the French CAC40 rose 0.14%, and the European Stoxx 50 fell 0.17%.</p><p><b>New York WTI crude oil closed up 2.5% on Friday, up 0.8% for the week.</b></p><p>WTI crude oil futures for August delivery rose 2.52% to $108.43 a barrel, breaking away from the low hit on Thursday since last Thursday; Brent crude oil futures for September delivery rose 2.38% to $111.63 a barrel, erasing most of Thursday's 3% decline. US crude oil rose 0.8% this week, ending a two-week losing streak, while Brent crude oil, which was flat last week, rose 2.3%. US crude oil fell 7.8% in June, and Brent crude oil fell 6.5%, ending a six-month winning streak. However, both the second quarter and the first half of the year saw cumulative gains.</p><p><b>New York gold futures once fell below $1,800.</b></p><p>New York gold futures prices closed lower on Friday, briefly falling below the key $1,800 mark during the session. Gold futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $5.80, or 0.3%, to settle at $1,801.50 an ounce, their lowest closing price since February. On Friday, the futures price briefly fell below $1,800, dropping to a low of $1,783.40. Silver futures for September delivery fell 68 cents, or 3.4%, to settle at $19.667 an ounce, their lowest closing price since July 2020.</p><p><b>International macro</b></p><p><b>Leading indicators show that the U.S. economy is on the verge of danger, with a recession rapidly approaching.</b></p><p>By now, the economic recession seems to have become a consensus. In fact, the Leading Enterprise Indicator (LEI) of the World Enterprise Institute suggests that a recession in the United States may be rapidly approaching. This leading indicator includes many market and economic indicators, such as the number of first-time jobless claims, manufacturing surveys, and stock prices. Guggenheim economist Matt Bush found that four consecutive declines in the monthly LEI typically indicate that the U.S. economy has entered a recession. As of May, the LEI had fallen for three consecutive months. Given the decline in US stocks and the drop in new orders for ISM manufacturing, there is a high probability that the LEI will fall again in June. This sign does not bode well for efforts to achieve a soft landing for the U.S. economy.</p><p><b>The Fed's July rate hike of 75 basis points is almost a certainty: dovish officials and the San Francisco Fed president have joined the ranks of supporters.</b></p><p>San Francisco Fed President Daly, who has always been considered a dovish figure within the Federal Reserve, said that inflation in the United States is too high and the Fed must maintain its path of monetary policy tightening. \"I support the Federal Reserve further rate hike by 75 basis points in July.\"</p><p><b>The U.S. ISM manufacturing index hit a two-year low in June, with both new orders and the employment index contracting.</b></p><p>On Friday, data released by ISM showed that the U.S. ISM manufacturing sector hit a two-year low in June, dragged down by weak new orders and contraction. The inventory index is near its highest level since 2010. The decline in supplier delivery and order backlog indices suggests that supply chain and capacity constraints appear to be easing. ISM data further proves that demand for U.S. goods is slowing.</p><p><b>Eurozone harmonized CPI rose 8.6% year-on-year in June, exceeding expectations and setting a new record high.</b></p><p>The Eurozone's reconciled CPI in June was 8.6% year-on-year, compared to the expected 8.5% and the previous value of 8.1%. The preliminary value of the core harmonized CPI year-on-year was 3.7%, compared with the expected 3.9% and the previous value of 3.8%.</p><p><b>OPEC crude oil production fell for the second consecutive month in June.</b></p><p>According to media investigations, OPEC's production decreased by 120,000 barrels per day in June. In addition to the UAE exceeding its target, Nigeria's daily production decreased by 100,000 barrels in June, Saudi Arabia's daily production was about 210,000 barrels below its target quota, and Kuwait also failed to meet its target, with daily production falling by 50,000 barrels.</p><p><b>Several natural gas and electricity supply giants in Northern Ireland announced significant price increases.</b></p><p>Gas suppliers SSE Airtricity and Firmus Energy raised their gas and electricity prices by 42.7% and 24.5%, respectively, while Power suppliers Power NI and Click Energy raised their gas and electricity prices by 27.5% and 11%, respectively. The report states that suppliers' own submissions are attributed to persistently high wholesale energy prices.</p><p><b>Venice has announced an entry fee for tourists starting in January 2023.</b></p><p>Venturini, the cultural director of Venice, Italy, announced that starting January 16, 2023, an entrance fee will be levied on tourists arriving and leaving the city center and islands of Venice on the same day. At that time, travelers not staying in Venice will pay an entrance fee of 3 to 10 euros, depending on the booking situation, and violators will be fined 50 to 300 euros. Venice residents, students, commuters, relatives, and residents of the Veneto region do not need to pay entry fees.</p><p><b>The latest poll shows that 71% of Americans do not want Biden to run for president of*.</b></p><p>According to The Hill, a recent Harvard University CAPS-Harris poll shows that 71% of respondents believe Biden should not run for a second presidential term. Among those surveyed who believe Biden should not continue running, 45% said Biden is a terrible president, about a third said he is too old, and about a quarter said it is time for a change. In addition, 61% of respondents believe that former President Trump should not run again in 2024.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>US mid-year economic growth forecast lowered</b></p><p>JPMorgan economists lowered their mid-year U.S. economic growth forecasts after most of the data released this week was weak, most notably a slowdown in consumer spending. The bank lowered its second-quarter U.S. GDP forecast to 1% from 2.5% and its third-quarter GDP forecast to 1% from 2%.</p><p><b>Thousands of flights in the United States were delayed or canceled due to worker shortages and bad weather</b></p><p>As of 10:30 a.m. Eastern Time on July 1, more than 1,200 flights entering and leaving the United States or transiting through the United States had been delayed, and another 238 flights had been canceled. It is understood that the flight delays and cancellations occurred in early July as the United States was about to experience a long-term earthquake. According to the American Automobile Association (AAA), approximately 47.9 million people will travel from January 1st to 4th local time, of which approximately 3.55 million are expected to travel by air. Over the past week, thousands of flights have been disrupted due to worker shortages and severe weather, despite airlines reducing their flights during the peak summer period from June to August by 15% to ensure the remaining flights operate normally.</p><p><b>The New York State Senate passed a bill to ban the carrying of firearms in \"sensitive places\"</b></p><p>The New York State Senate passed a bill banning the carrying of firearms in \"sensitive locations,\" including Times Square and all public transportation facilities. According to the legislation, no one except law enforcement officers, security personnel, active-duty military personnel, and public security personnel can carry firearms in \"sensitive locations,\" including subways, trains, buses, ferries, government buildings, churches, schools, libraries, public playgrounds, parks, zoos, homeless shelters, and polling stations. The bill will next be voted on in the state legislature. If it passes, it will be sent to the New York Governor's office to await the governor's signature into law.</p><p><b>The U.S. Department of Defense announced an additional $820 million in military aid to Ukraine.</b></p><p>On July 1 local time, the U.S. Department of Defense announced an additional $820 million in military aid to Ukraine, including new surface-to-air missile systems and anti-artillery radars, as well as more ammunition for the HIMAS high-mobility multiple rocket launcher system. The plan reportedly includes $770 million in security assistance funding for Ukraine, allowing the Department of Defense to directly provide funding to contractors to supply weapons to Ukraine, and $50 million in presidential \"withdrawal authorization\" to allow the shipment of weapons from U.S. inventories.</p><p><b>Company News</b></p><p><b>Meta will close its cryptocurrency project Novi in September.</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a>The cryptocurrency project, which once drew heavy attacks from the company's founder, Mark Zuckerberg, in Congress, will now officially shut down the remaining parts of the project. Meta stated on its website regarding its test project Novi that it will cease service on September 1st. Novi provides transfer services using Meta's own cryptocurrency digital wallet. The company stated that both the Novi app and Novi on WhatsApp will no longer be available. Starting July 21, users will no longer be able to top up their accounts and are advised to withdraw their balances \"as soon as possible\". After the test period ends, users will not be able to access their transaction history or other data. A Meta spokesperson stated that the company does plan to use Novi's technology in future products, such as its metaverse project.</p><p><b>The automotive industry's downturn continues; GM's Q2 sales plummeted 15%, but it is expected to top the sales charts.</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">general motors</a>Data released Friday showed that the company's car sales fell 15% in the second quarter as a global chip shortage and supply chain disruptions impacted production, leaving nearly 100,000 vehicles waiting for parts. GM stated that its vehicle sales in the second quarter of 2022 were 582,401 units, compared to 688,236 units in the same period last year. General Motors has long been the best-selling car brand in the United States, but the company relinquished that position last year to...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TM\">Toyota</a>This marks the first time General Motors has lost its sales crown in the U.S. domestic automobile market since 1931. However, according to data from market research firm Cox Automotive, GM is still expected to regain the top spot in car sales this quarter, as industry-wide supply disruptions have also affected other automakers' inventories.</p><p><b>The late Apple co-founder Steve Jobs was posthumously awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom.</b></p><p>On Friday local time, U.S. President Joe Biden announced a list of 17 recipients of the Presidential Medal of Freedom, including the late Apple co-founder Steve Jobs. The award is the highest civilian honor in the United States, and the White House says the winner \"embodies the soul of the nation.\"</p><p><b>Amazon compromises with the EU: adding an \"unsubscribe\" button to Prime paid services.</b></p><p>After receiving complaints from multiple consumer groups around the world, Amazon has finally made adjustments, allowing users to easily cancel their subscriptions to the \"Amazon Prime\" service. This adjustment will apply to all EU websites, as well as desktop devices, mobile phones and tablets, and will take effect immediately.</p><p><b>A $37 billion purchase! The three major airlines have joined forces to purchase nearly 300 Airbus aircraft.</b></p><p>Friday night<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600115\">China Eastern</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601111\">Air China</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZNH\">Southern Airlines</a>They have all announced that they have signed aircraft purchase agreements with Airbus, with the three companies purchasing a total of 292 A320NEO series aircraft for a total amount of US$37.2 billion. All three companies gave their respective reasons for purchasing the devices, and in their announcements,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CEA\">Eastern Airlines</a>It was mentioned that, based on confidence in the future development of the civil aviation industry, the company needs to plan and reserve its fleet capacity in advance.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00753\">Air China</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600029\">Southern Airlines</a>All stated that this aircraft transaction aligns with the company's fleet development strategy formulated in its 14th Five-Year Plan and will help enhance the company's market competitiveness.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164878609","content_text":"摘要:美股下半年首日迎来上涨,半导体板块逆势下跌;热门中概股大多走高,新能源汽车股高开低走;已故苹果联合创始人乔布斯被追授美国总统自由勋章;370亿美元大采购!三大航企齐出手,拟购入近300架空客飞机。海外市场收盘:美股下半年首日迎来上涨,半导体板块逆势下跌下半年第一个交易日,美股迎来上涨。虽然盘中走势曲折,但三大指数最终在震荡中顽强收涨。截止收盘,道指涨321.83点,涨幅为1.05%,报31097.26点;纳指涨99.11点,涨幅为0.90%,报11127.85点;标普500指数涨39.95点,涨幅为1.06%,报3825.33点。大型科技股中亚马逊涨逾3%,苹果、特斯拉涨超1%,微软上涨1.07%,Meta下跌0.76%,奈飞上涨2.9%。芯片板块受到重创,几家芯片制造商纷纷表示,通胀上升和经济降温正在减少消费者和企业的支出,全球芯片需求将减弱。安森美半导体跌近7%,台积电大跌5.81%,荷兰芯片制造商阿斯麦大跌5.47%,英伟达跌超4%,意法半导体、高通跌超3%,美光科技下跌近3%。热门中概股大多走高,新能源汽车股高开低走热门中概股多数上涨,纳斯达克中国金龙指数上涨1.26%。拼多多、哔哩哔哩涨超4%,知乎、爱奇艺涨超3%,京东、阿里巴巴涨超2%,斗鱼上涨5%,京东上涨2.7%。造车新势力中,小鹏汽车下跌4.6%,理想汽车下跌1.59%,蔚来下跌1.66%。欧股收盘涨跌不一,德国DAX30指数涨0.25%欧股收盘主要指数收盘涨跌不一,德国DAX30指数涨0.25%,英国富时100指数跌0.02%,法国CAC40指数涨0.14%,欧洲斯托克50指数跌0.17%。纽约WTI原油周五收高2.5%,本周上涨0.8%WTI 8月原油期货收涨2.52%,报108.43美元/桶,摆脱周四所创的上周四以来低位;布伦特9月原油期货收涨2.38%,报111.63美元/桶,抹平周四跌3%的多数跌幅。本周美油累涨0.8%,结束两周连跌,上周零涨跌的布油累涨2.3%。6月美油累跌7.8%,布油累跌6.5%,终结六个月连涨,不过二季度和上半年都累涨。纽约黄金期货一度跌破1800美元 纽约黄金期货价格周五收跌,盘中一度跌破关键的1800美元关口。纽约商品交易所8月交割的黄金期货价格下跌5.80美元,跌幅为0.3%,收于每盎司1801.50美元,创2月以来的最低收盘价。周五盘中,该期货价格一度跌破1800美元,最低下降至1783.40美元。9月交割的白银期货价格下跌68美分,跌幅为3.4%,收于每盎司19.667美元,创2020年7月以来的最低收盘价。国际宏观领先指标显示美国经济濒临险境,衰退正迅速逼近到现在为止,经济衰退似乎已成共识。事实上,世界大型企业研究会的领先指标(LEI)表明美国经济衰退或许正迅速逼近。该领先指标包括了诸多市场和经济指标,例如首次申领失业救济人数、制造业调查和股票价格等。Guggenheim的经济学家马特·布什发现,月度LEI连续四次下降通常表明美国经济已经陷入衰退。截至5月份,LEI已经连降三个月。鉴于美股下跌和ISM制造业新订单的下滑,6月LEI再度下降的可能性很大。这个迹象对于试图让美国经济软着陆的努力来说不是个好兆头。美联储7月加息75基点几乎板上钉钉:鸽派高官旧金山联储主席加入支持行列向来被视为美联储内鸽派的旧金山联储主席戴利表示,美国通胀太高,美联储必须维持货币政策紧缩路径不变。“我支持美联储在7月份进一步加息75个基点”。美国6月ISM制造业创两年新低,新订单和就业指数均陷入萎缩周五,ISM公布的数据显示,受新订单疲软、陷入收缩拖累,美国6月ISM制造业创两年新低。库存指数接近2010年以来的最高水平。供应商交付、订单积压指数下滑,表明供应链和产能限制似乎正在缓解。ISM数据进一步证明了美国商品的需求正在放缓。欧元区6月调和CPI同比增长8.6%,高于预期,续创历史新高欧元区6月调和CPI同比8.6%,预期8.5%,前值8.1%;核心调和CPI同比初值3.7%,预期3.9%,前值3.8%。OPEC 6月原油产量连续第二月下滑根据媒体调查,石油输出国组织6月份的产量每天减少了12万桶。除了阿联酋超额完成任务以外,尼日利亚6月日产量减少了10万桶,沙特日产量比其目标配额低大约21万桶,科威特也未能达到其目标,日产量下降了5万桶。北爱尔兰多家天然气和电力供应巨头宣布大幅涨价天然气供应商SSE Airtricity和Firmus Energy分别将天然气和电力价格提高了42.7%和24.5%,电力供应商 Power NI和Click Energy 则将天然气和电力价格分别提高了27.5%和11%。 报道称,供应商自己提交归因于能源批发价格居高不下。威尼斯宣布从2023年1月起对游客征收进城费意大利威尼斯市文化局长文图里尼宣布,将从2023年1月16日起对当天到达、离开威尼斯市中心和岛屿的游客征收进城费。届时,不在威尼斯市内住宿的旅客将根据预定情况,支付3欧元到10欧元进城费,违者将被罚款50欧元到300欧元。威尼斯本地居民、学生、通勤人员、亲属和威尼托大区居民无需支付进城费。最新民调显示71%美国人不希望拜登竞选连任总统据《国会山报》报道,一项最新的哈佛大学CAPS-Harris民意调查显示,71%的受访者认为拜登不应该参加第二个总统任期的竞选。在认为拜登不应该继续参选的受访者中,45%的人表示拜登是一个糟糕的总统,大约三分之一的人表示因为他年纪太大了,大约四分之一的人表示是时候做出改变了。此外,61%的受访者认为,前总统特朗普不应该在2024年再度参选。摩根大通下调美国年中经济增长预期摩根大通经济学家下调了美国年中经济增长预期,因本周美国公布的大多数数据表现疲软,其中最明显的是消费者支出放缓。该行将美国第二季度GDP预期从此前的2.5%下调至1%,将第三季度GDP预期从2%下调至1%。受工人短缺和恶劣天气影响,美国上千航班被延误或取消截至美国东部时间7月1日上午10点30分,当日已有超过1200个进出美国或经停美国的航班被延误,另有238个航班被取消。据悉,航班的延误和取消发生在美国7月初小长期来临之际。据美国汽车协会(AAA)预计,当地时间1日至4日将有约4790万人出行,其中约355万人预计将乘坐飞机。在过去的一周里,尽管航空公司将位于6月至8月夏季高峰期的航班减少了15%以确保剩余航班的正常运行,但由于工人短缺和恶劣天气的影响,仍有数千个航班的飞行计划被扰乱。美国纽约州参议院通过法案,禁止在“敏感场所”携带枪支美国纽约州参议院通过法案,禁止在包括时报广场和所有公共交通设施等“敏感场所”携带枪支。根据立法,除执法人员、治安人员、现役军人和公安人员外,其他人不能在“敏感场所”携带枪支,其中包括地铁、火车、公共汽车、渡轮、政府大楼、教堂、学校、图书馆、公共游乐场、公园、动物园、流浪者收容所和投票站。该法案下一步将在州议会进行投票,若投票通过,将被送至纽约州长办公室等待州长签署成为正式法律。美国国防部宣布向乌克兰提供8.2亿美元额外军事援助当地时间7月1日,美国国防部宣布向乌克兰提供8.2亿美元的额外军事援助,其中包括新的地对空导弹系统和反炮兵雷达,并为“海马斯”高机动性多管火箭炮系统提供更多弹药。据介绍,该计划包括7.7亿美元的乌克兰安全援助计划资金,允许国防部直接向承包商提供资金,为乌克兰提供武器,以及5000万美元的总统“提款授权”,允许从美国库存中运出武器。公司新闻Meta将在9月关闭其加密货币项目NoviMeta Platforms的加密货币项目曾经令该公司创始人马克·扎克伯格在国会饱受攻击,现在,该项目的剩余部分也将正式关闭。Meta在测试项目Novi其网站上表示,将于9月1日停止服务。Novi使用Meta自己的加密货币数字钱包提供转账服务。该公司表示,Novi应用程序和WhatsApp上的Novi都将不再可用。从7月21日开始,用户将无法再向他们的帐户充值,建议“尽快”提取余额。在测试期结束后,用户将无法访问其交易历史记录或其他数据。Meta发言人表示,该公司确实计划在未来产品中使用Novi的技术,例如在其元宇宙项目中。汽车行业颓势仍在持续 通用Q2销量大跌15% 但有望问鼎销售桂冠通用汽车周五公布的数据显示,该公司二季度汽车销量下降了15%,原因是全球芯片短缺和供应链中断影响了生产,导致近10万辆汽车在等待零部件。通用表示,公司2022年二季度汽车销量为582,401辆,而去年同期则为688,236辆。通用汽车长期以来都是美国最畅销的汽车品牌,不过该公司去年将这一宝座拱手让给了丰田汽车,这也是通用自1931年以来首次丢失美国本土汽车市场销售桂冠。然而,根据市场研究机构Cox Automotive的数据,通用当季仍有望夺回汽车销售冠军,因为全行业的供应中断同样影响到了其他汽车制造商的库存。已故苹果联合创始人乔布斯被追授美国总统自由勋章当地时间周五,美国总统乔·拜登(Joe Biden)宣布了17名总统自由勋章获得者的名单,其中包括已故苹果公司联合创始人史蒂夫·乔布斯(Steve Jobs)。该奖项是美国最高平民荣誉,白宫称获奖者“体现了国家的灵魂”。亚马逊向欧盟妥协:为Prime付费服务增加“取消订阅”按钮在遭到全球多家消费者团体的投诉后,亚马逊终于做出调整,让用户轻松地取消对“Amazon Prime”服务的订阅。这一调整将适用于所有欧盟网站,以及台式设备、手机和平板电脑,且立即生效。370亿美元大采购!三大航企齐出手,拟购入近300架空客飞机周五晚间中国东航、中国国航、南方航空纷纷公告与空客签订购机协议,三家公司合计采购A320NEO系列飞机共292架,合计金额372亿美元。三家公司均给出了各自的购机理由,在公告中,东方航空提到,基于对于民航业未来发展的信心,公司需提前对机队运力进行规划和储备。中国国航及南方航空均提到,本次飞机交易符合本公司十四五规划制定的机队发展策略,有助于增强本公司市场竞争力。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TTTN":0.9,"QNETCN":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5377,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":true}