To The Moon

Insights from last week's changes in investor sentiment: Last week, investor sentiment turned bearish across all markets we follow except China. Only Australian investors showed a slight recovery but still ended the week in negative territory. Meanwhile, sentiment among Chinese investors, which had been bullish since mid-December and fueled a 15% year-to-date rise in the market, has now declined to just positive as they continue to await details on the next wave of stimulus from authorities. Globally, Trump continues to be the elephant in every investment room that investors need to tiptoe around as they rush to steer their portfolios to safety ahead of next week’s tariffs announcement. Tariffs are coming. They might not make America great again, but Trump predicted them, named them, claim

Insights from last week's changes in investor sentiment: Over the past two weeks, investor sentiment sank, turning bearish in six out of the ten markets we monitor – the highest number since early August 2024. Sentiment also turned negative in Japan and Australia, while UK investors remained neutral, albeit with a negative bias. Only Chinese investors stayed positive, ending the week bullish on hopes for further stimulus from the authorities and the CCP's renewed interest in the small-cap private tech sector (excluding small caps, sentiment is neutral). The supply and demand balance for risk is now very negative in seven markets, creating conditions ripe for an emotional overreaction to any unforeseen denial of investors’ expectations this week. Fundamentally not much has changed: inflatio

Total volume on Eurex up 12 percent in February compared to February 2024. Equity derivatives trading at Eurex climbed 25 percent this February. Notional outstanding in OTC Clearing rose by 17 percent compared to February 2024. Eurex, Europe’s leading derivatives exchange and – along with Eurex Clearing – one of the leading central counterparties globally, reported a 12 percent increase in total trading volume for February, reaching 173.0 million contracts compared to 154.6 million contracts in the same month last year. This growth was mainly fueled by a 25 percent rise in equity derivatives, which surged from 19.9 million to 24.9 million contracts. Interest rate derivatives experienced a 14 percent increase, climbing to 88.3 million contracts. Additionally, index derivatives rose by 3 per

Investor sentiment continued to decline in every market we follow, with investors in Asia ex-Japan, Global Developed ex-US and Global Emerging markets, now on the verge of turning bearish, joining Global Developed Markets investors who were already there. Investors in Europe and US are now strongly negative, but not yet bearish, with the only remaining positive investors being found in China and Japan, although less so than in the previous weeks. For those who thought the US voting with Russia and China against its allies at the UN was surreal, last week got a lot surrealer (I know Windows – not an actual word). And just like that, chaos returns to the White House, if it ever left. Very comforting. The one fixed point in an otherwise uncertain world. I must confess, the math needed to expl

Insights from last week's changes in investor sentiment: Investor sentiment continued to weaken last week, with most markets ending either neutral or negative. In China, the mood shifted from bullish in prior weeks to just positive, despite billions in market-supporting measures from authorities and a 20% market gain since January 13. Globally, investors and US government employees are bracing for the impact of the Trump administration’s shock therapy, uncertain of its effectiveness and not expecting it to be as painless as promised. Much like during an earthquake, the best approach is to take cover, stay still, and wait for the shaking to stop before assessing the damage. As of now, the Trump administration’s policymaking feels like a magic 8 ball. The problem is that as long as the ball

Insights from last week's changes in investor sentiment: Sentiment improved slightly across all markets we follow as investors breathed a sigh of tariff relief (“Folks, he didn’t mean it. Phew!”). Chinese investors remained bullish, riding the government’s market support operations, while individual investors continued to buy into the tech sector. Sentiment among European investors shifted from negative to positive, even after JD Vance’s saucy ignorance of conflicts that happened before he was born left most of the audience at the Munich Security Conference feeling like Jodie Foster in The Accused. Globally, however, the rise in sentiment wasn’t a sign of increased willingness to speculate, more like an involuntary nervous giggle of what-the-heckness. Most of the improvement in the ROOF Sc

Investor sentiment remained unchanged from the previous week, except in the UK where investors turned bearish for the first time since May 2024. Globally, sentiment remains cautious ahead of potential new tariffs from the Trump administration, expected as soon as this week. US investors are grappling with the dual pressures of a culture war at home and a trade war abroad. Additionally, there are still no details about a peace plan for either the Middle East or Ukraine, nor a clear roadmap for the US-China relationship. On the earnings front, Q4 results provided a temporary boost, but the lack of bullish guidance for the upcoming quarters has not helped investor sentiment regain its post-election strength. The sixties and seventies are often referred to as the decades of the sexual revoluti

Investor sentiment declined last week in all markets we follow, except in Australia where sentiment shifted from neutral to positive, and in the US where it improved from bearish to negative. Overall, sentiment has weakened since the start of the year as investors become tariff-ied of the monetary policy implications of a global trade war which the Fed has already warned could tilt the risk of inflation to the upside. Over the past two years, building a US portfolio has been relatively straightforward. Start with the Magnificent Seven: Amazon for consumer spending, Apple for mobile hardware, Google for the Internet of Things, Meta for social media, Microsoft for software, Nvidia for AI, and Tesla for, well, political correctness. Add to this core group JP Morgan-Chase for the economy, and

Over the past two weeks, investor sentiment declined in all markets we follow except Australia and China. Despite this souring sentiment, markets continued to rise everywhere, defying policy chaos and rising unpredictability. US investors turned bearish, dragging the Global Developed Market down with them. Investors in Asia ex-Japan, Australia, Global Developed ex-US markets, Global Emerging Markets, Europe, Japan, and the UK remained neutral, unwilling to commit to either a positive or negative view for the time being – much less a bullish or bearish view. Last week’s immigration battle was characterized by a series of punches and, surprisingly, counterpunches, as leaders responded on X to the Trump administration’s latest moves on immigration and tariff policies - both vital for the US i

Investors in China, Europe, Japan, and the UK began 2025 with the same mindset they had at the end of 2024. Meanwhile, those in Global Emerging, Global Developed, and Global Developed ex-US markets, as well as in Australia and the US, experienced a slight shift in sentiment. Overall, most investors entered the new year feeling neutral, positive, or bullish, except for US investors who turned negative after the latest FOMC meeting denied their expectations for 4-5 interest rate cuts this year. The biggest source of risk in 2024 was political change, with 54% of the world’s population, representing 60% of global GDP, voting overwhelmingly for change. In 2025, the main risks will be policy implementation by newly elected populist leaders and geopolitical tensions. Voters demanded change, and