📅 SEPTEMBER 2026 MARKET WATCHLIST “Sell in May and buy in September” does not mean investors should automatically buy on 1 September. Historically, September has been one of the market’s more volatile and weaker months. However, that volatility may also create better entry opportunities ahead of the traditionally stronger October–April period. 🔴 KEY MACRO DATES • 4 Sep: U.S. Jobs Report • 10 Sep: Producer Price Index • 11 Sep: Consumer Price Index • 16 Sep: Retail Sales + FOMC decision • 30 Sep: PCE inflation + Q2 GDP These events will shape inflation expectations, Treasury yields, Fed policy and equity valuations. 📊 EARNINGS CATALYSTS • 2 Sep: Broadcom • 3 Sep: Zscaler + Lululemon • 8–14 Sep: Oracle — TBC • 10 Sep: Adobe — TBC • 24 Sep: Costco • 30 Sep: Micron Broadcom and Micron will tes
1 September 2026 Renewed US-Iran hostilities pushed oil prices and long-term Treasury yields higher, while Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish stance strengthened expectations of a September rate hike, sending all three major US indices lower—although they still ended August with monthly gains. S&P 500 fell 0.33% to 7,686.14 Dow Jones fell 0.70% to 53,185.90 Nasdaq fell 0.12% to 26,370.89 US 2-year Treasury yield was unchanged at 4.348% US 10-year Treasury yield rose approximately 3.6 basis points to 4.757% Market data: Reuters | Treasury data: WSJ ⸻ News 1) US-Iran hostilities resume, raising risks around the Strait of Hormuz * The US struck Iranian missile-launch facilities on Larak Island, marking the first direct military exchange between the two sides in a month. * Iran retaliated
31 August 2026 Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech pushed Treasury yields higher and weighed on technology stocks. Renewed U.S.–Iran tensions lifted oil prices over the weekend, while China’s housing reforms and the U.S.–Venezuela oil deal provided some positive offsets. S&P 500 fell 0.25% to 7,711.76 Dow Jones fell 0.02% to 53,559.99 Nasdaq fell 0.52% to 26,402.42 U.S. 2-year Treasury yield rose 11.8 bps to 4.348% U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose around 4 bps to approximately 4.72% ⸻ News 1. China launches a three-pronged property reform covering homebuyers, project delivery and developer financing * The maximum term for personal housing loans has been extended from 30 to 40 years. * Banks will determine the actual mortgage tenure based on the borrower’s age, income an
Warsh’s Jackson Hole Verdict: Hawkish on Rates, Bullish on AI Growth Warsh’s speech was hawkish on interest rates, but constructive on economic growth and AI demand. Relative to my earlier best/base/worst-case framework, the outcome landed between the base and worst cases—closer to worst for rates, but more constructive for AI growth. 🔴 Inflation: Hawkish 🔴 Labour: Strong enough to tolerate tighter policy 🔴 Financial conditions: Not restrictive 🟢 Economic growth: Resilient 🟢 AI investment: Structurally strong 🟡 AI stocks: Positive fundamentals, valuation-sensitive Overall hawkish score: 7/10 However, Warsh did not promise a September rate hike. He concluded that he was committed to a policy discipline, “not to a decision.” This was a hawkish bias—not an explicit rate-hike announcement. ⸻ 1
Jackson Hole 2026: Three Warsh Scenarios—and What They Mean for AI Stocks After Nvidia’s strong earnings reinforced confidence in AI demand, the market’s attention now shifts from corporate earnings to monetary policy. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s first Jackson Hole keynote could determine whether strong AI investment is viewed as: ✅ A productivity engine that allows faster, less inflationary growth or ⚠️ An investment boom that keeps demand and inflation too strong This distinction matters because technology companies face two opposing forces: * Strong AI capex supports semiconductor, cloud and software revenue. * Higher interest rates reduce technology valuations and increase financing costs. Here are my best, base and worst-case scenarios for the speech. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ CURRENT MA
From AI capex to AI revenue—the monetisation cycle is becoming clearer. 🔄 1️⃣ Hardware: NVIDIA supplies the GPUs and computing infrastructure needed to build AI capacity. Its latest results showed data-centre revenue reaching US$89 billion, up 117% year-on-year—evidence that infrastructure demand remains exceptionally strong. 2️⃣ Cloud: Microsoft, Amazon, Google and Oracle install these chips in data centres, then monetise them by renting AI computing power to developers and enterprises. 3️⃣ Software: Companies such as Salesforce use that cloud capacity to embed AI into real business workflows. Customers pay through subscriptions, AI add-ons and usage-based fees—turning computing power into recurring software revenue. 4️⃣ Security: As more applications and data move into AI environments, d
27 August 2026 Hotter-than-expected U.S. PCE inflation and rising rate-hike expectations pushed Wall Street slightly lower. A third consecutive decline in oil prices eased inflation concerns, while strong after-hours results from Nvidia, Salesforce and CrowdStrike lifted sentiment across AI and software stocks. S&P 500 fell 0.02% to 7,675.70 Dow Jones fell 0.21% to 53,463.88 Nasdaq fell 0.08% to 26,130.20 The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose approximately 2 basis points to 4.22%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose approximately 2 basis points to 4.65%. ⸻ News 1. Iran and Oman Reach Hormuz Framework as Oil Falls for a Third Day; U.S. Tariffs Add Midterm Election Pressure • Iran and Oman reached a framework agreement covering shipping routes and revenue sharing in the Strait of Hormuz.
26 August 2026 US stocks closed higher as easing US–Iran tensions pushed oil prices and long-term Treasury yields lower. Technology stocks rebounded ahead of NVIDIA’s highly anticipated earnings. S&P 500: +0.32% to 7,677.28 Dow Jones: +0.30% to 53,577.40 Nasdaq: +0.66% to 26,151.30 US 2-Year Treasury Yield: Down around 3 bps to 4.21% US 10-Year Treasury Yield: Down around 7 bps to 4.64%, its lowest level since early August ——— 1. Progress on the Strait of Hormuz, but a Full Reopening Is Not Confirmed • Reports suggest that the US and Iran have reached a preliminary understanding on parts of a ceasefire agreement, including freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. However, no comprehensive agreement has been formally signed. • Iran and Oman proposed establishing a joint tempo
25 Aug 2026 — Daily Market Update US equities ended mixed on Monday as Washington escalated its economic pressure on Iran and AI hardware stocks continued to weaken ahead of Nvidia’s earnings. At the same time, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s plan to expand US Treasury buybacks using the Treasury General Account helped push long-term yields and oil prices lower. S&P 500: -0.28% to 7,652.86 Dow Jones: +0.26% to 53,417.16 Nasdaq: -0.76% to 25,980.19 US 2Y Treasury yield: +0.4bp to 4.238% US 10Y Treasury yield: -3.8bp to 4.70% ⸻ 1. US Expands Economic Pressure on Iran The US Treasury announced a broader round of sanctions aimed at further isolating Iran economically. * The measures target close to 60 individuals, companies, vessels and related networks. * Sanctions cover areas includin