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YodianLai
YodianLai
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2024-10-24
$联合包裹(UPS)$
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YodianLai
YodianLai
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2024-10-24
$联合包裹(UPS)$
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YodianLai
YodianLai
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2023-04-05
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YodianLai
YodianLai
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2021-06-20
666
Preview: Powell Joins Hands with US Core Inflation Data for Major Release
周二关键词：美联储主席鲍威尔讲话周二经济数据方面，主要关注英国6月CBI工业订单差值、美国5月成屋销售年化总数、欧元区6月消费者信心指数。
Preview: Powell Joins Hands with US Core Inflation Data for Major Release
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YodianLai
YodianLai
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2021-06-18
666
Is the bursting of the dot-com bubble in 2000 repeating itself?
当年纳指陷入一片疯狂的时候，标普500指数的表现却是平庸乏味的，而结果就是，2000年3月到6月中旬，纳指血流成河的时候，标普500指数只下跌了4%。今天的情况也差不多，虽然各种趋势股票已经濒临崩盘，
Is the bursting of the dot-com bubble in 2000 repeating itself?
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YodianLai
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2021-06-18
666
Noah's Chief Economist: rate hike Too Fast and Too Much May Trigger Debt Crisis
诺亚控股首席经济学家夏春表示，在8月份全球央行会议上公布缩减QE的计划可能性是最高的，预计美联储最快也要到明年一季度才开始正式缩减购债。考虑到目前低利率环境，美联储正式开始缩减QE，以及开始加息时，对
Noah's Chief Economist: rate hike Too Fast and Too Much May Trigger Debt Crisis
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YodianLai
YodianLai
·
2021-06-16
666
Angel Times closed up 131.79% on its first day of trading, with a turnover of 5.8 billion yuan, ranking first among Hong Kong stocks.
6月16日，时代天使今日首日上市，盘中最高涨183.24%报490港元，最终收涨131.79%报401港元，全天成交58.78亿港元，位居港股市场第一位，换手率8.96%，市值665亿港元。 时代天使
Angel Times closed up 131.79% on its first day of trading, with a turnover of 5.8 billion yuan, ranking first among Hong Kong stocks.
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YodianLai
YodianLai
·
2021-06-16
666
ByteDance enters the medical aesthetics industry
字母榜近日发现，字节跳动旗下的小荷医疗已上线医学美容服务“小荷医美”。对于小荷医美后续业务拓展情况，字节暂未回复。 小荷医美类似于美团丽人/美发频道下的医学美容栏目，主要提供撮合交易，不过前者以项目而
ByteDance enters the medical aesthetics industry
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YodianLai
YodianLai
·
2021-06-16
666
Roblox shares fell more than 8% in pre-market trading after May revenue declined 11% month-over-month.
6月16日，美国在线游戏平台Roblox盘前跌超8%，此前公布5月营收环比下滑11%，日活用户为4300万，环比下滑1%。 该公司预测，五月份的营收（指游戏玩家的签约营收）在2.16亿美元到2.19
Roblox shares fell more than 8% in pre-market trading after May revenue declined 11% month-over-month.
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YodianLai
YodianLai
·
2021-06-16
666
Oracle shares fell more than 4% in pre-market trading after cloud capital spending doubled in fiscal year 2022.
6月16日，甲骨文盘前跌超4%，公司将使2022财年的云资本支出翻倍至近40亿美元。 甲骨文在本周二表示，因公司持续加大对云计算业务的投资，以对抗亚马逊和微软等竞争对手，导致当前财季的利润不及预期。
Oracle shares fell more than 4% in pre-market trading after cloud capital spending doubled in fiscal year 2022.
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rate</b></p><p><b>There was little economic data on Monday; the main focus was on China's LPR interest rate data.</b></p><p>The Bloomberg Asia team of economists wrote that the People's Bank of China's latest medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation held steady, indicating that the lending market prime rate (LPR) will remain unchanged in June. China's latest economic activity data does not provide an urgent reason for the central bank to change its policy trajectory.</p><p><b>China's one-year lending market prime rate (the reference rate for bank loans to enterprises) is likely to remain at 3.85% in June. The five-year LPR (mortgage reference rate) is likely to remain at 4.65%.</b></p><p><b>There were relatively few risk events on Monday. During the European session, the focus was on speeches by Bank of England officials, including Deputy Governor of Prudential Supervision Woods on climate risk scenario planning and Fintech Director Tom Mutton on crypto assets, stablecoins, and digital currencies.</b></p><p>New York time,<b>Williams, a permanent voting member of the FOMC and president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, spoke at a banking conference.</b>This needs attention.</p><p><b>Tuesday (June 22) Keywords: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78c64fef53276362a340b4399b87f3b7\" tg-width=\"627\" tg-height=\"209\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Regarding Tuesday's economic data, the main focus will be on the UK's June CBI industrial orders gap, the US's May annualized total existing home sales, and the Eurozone's June consumer confidence index.</p><p>In comparison, speeches by Federal Reserve officials are more noteworthy. Generally, Fed officials will deliver speeches a week after a Fed decision, from which investors can obtain more details about future monetary policy.</p><p>New York time,<b>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will address Congress on the COVID-19 response and the economic outlook.</b>This will be the focus of market attention.</p><p>At a press conference following the Fed's interest rate decision on June 17, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell pointed out that there is still a long way to go before the economic recovery is sufficient for the Fed to begin tapering its monthly bond purchases. He added that the timing of interest rate hikes was not even mentioned in the discussions. In comparison, Powell's attitude is slightly more dovish than the Fed's decision. If Powell delivers a more dovish speech, one needs to be wary of the risk of a dollar correction and a rebound in gold prices.</p><p><b>Wednesday (June 23) Keywords: Europe and the US June Markit Manufacturing PMI Preliminary Report</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1ada5dfc03bdde86a678460e27d6a51\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>The United States will release its preliminary June Markit Manufacturing PMI.</b>。<b>The market expects the US Markit Manufacturing PMI to fall slightly to 61.8 in June, but it is still at a historically high level and is still favorable to stocks, commodities and risky assets.</b></p><p>In addition,<b>Federal Reserve Governor Bowman, Atlanta Fed President Bostic, and Boston Fed President Rosengren will deliver speeches respectively, which investors should pay close attention to.</b></p><p><b>Thursday (June 24) Keywords: Initial filing data, Fed official speech, Soul IPO, Nike/BlackBerry earnings report</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a613c99edd05cba1056a8acb4759ac4f\" tg-width=\"628\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In terms of data, investors need to pay attention to<b>Changes in the number of initial jobless claims in the United States</b>。<b>The number of people applying for unemployment benefits may continue to decline.</b>Because Americans are more willing to seek jobs after supplemental unemployment benefits expire in many states.</p><p>Regarding financial reports,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NKE\">Nike</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">Blackberry</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">FedEx</a>The new quarterly financial report will be released.</b></p><p>Regarding new stocks,<b>The first social networking company in metaverse<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SSR\">Soul</a>It will be listed on Nasdaq.</b></p><p>In addition,<b>FOMC permanent voting members Williams, President of the New York Federal Reserve, and Bullard, President of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, will deliver speeches separately, which investors should also pay close attention to.</b></p><p><b>Friday (June 25) Keywords: US May PCE data</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6539b1d406c9cd4841b089f661b184f\" tg-width=\"633\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">On Friday, the market will receive one of two key data points monitored by the Federal Reserve—<b>The US PCE price index is a key indicator for measuring private consumer inflation in the United States.</b></p><p>The May report on personal income and spending will show how much Americans are trying to make up for losses during the pandemic. Although the latest retail sales report showed a decline in goods consumption last month, upcoming data may indicate that accelerated growth in the services sector has offset the loss in goods spending.</p><p>Regarding financial reports,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JKS\">Jinko Solar</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02158\">Yidu Technology</a>The new quarterly financial report will be released.</b>Investors may wish to take note.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Preview: Powell Joins Hands with US Core Inflation Data for Major Release</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPreview: Powell Joins Hands with US Core Inflation Data for Major Release\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-20 18:10</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Abstract:</b></p><p><b>In terms of economic data:</b>China's LPR interest rate, US PCE price index, US initial jobless claims, US Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary reading...<b>Regarding new shares:</b>Full Truck Alliance (Manbang), China's leading digital freight platform, and Soul, the \"first social metaverse stock,\" are about to go public.<b>In terms of events:</b>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, along with several other Fed officials, delivered a series of speeches.<b>Regarding financial reports:</b>Several companies, including Nike, BlackBerry, Jinko Solar, and Yidu Technology, will release their financial reports.<b>Monday (June 21) Keywords: China LPR interest rate</b></p><p><b>There was little economic data on Monday; the main focus was on China's LPR interest rate data.</b></p><p>The Bloomberg Asia team of economists wrote that the People's Bank of China's latest medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation held steady, indicating that the lending market prime rate (LPR) will remain unchanged in June. China's latest economic activity data does not provide an urgent reason for the central bank to change its policy trajectory.</p><p><b>China's one-year lending market prime rate (the reference rate for bank loans to enterprises) is likely to remain at 3.85% in June. The five-year LPR (mortgage reference rate) is likely to remain at 4.65%.</b></p><p><b>There were relatively few risk events on Monday. During the European session, the focus was on speeches by Bank of England officials, including Deputy Governor of Prudential Supervision Woods on climate risk scenario planning and Fintech Director Tom Mutton on crypto assets, stablecoins, and digital currencies.</b></p><p>New York time,<b>Williams, a permanent voting member of the FOMC and president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, spoke at a banking conference.</b>This needs attention.</p><p><b>Tuesday (June 22) Keywords: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78c64fef53276362a340b4399b87f3b7\" tg-width=\"627\" tg-height=\"209\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Regarding Tuesday's economic data, the main focus will be on the UK's June CBI industrial orders gap, the US's May annualized total existing home sales, and the Eurozone's June consumer confidence index.</p><p>In comparison, speeches by Federal Reserve officials are more noteworthy. Generally, Fed officials will deliver speeches a week after a Fed decision, from which investors can obtain more details about future monetary policy.</p><p>New York time,<b>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will address Congress on the COVID-19 response and the economic outlook.</b>This will be the focus of market attention.</p><p>At a press conference following the Fed's interest rate decision on June 17, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell pointed out that there is still a long way to go before the economic recovery is sufficient for the Fed to begin tapering its monthly bond purchases. He added that the timing of interest rate hikes was not even mentioned in the discussions. In comparison, Powell's attitude is slightly more dovish than the Fed's decision. If Powell delivers a more dovish speech, one needs to be wary of the risk of a dollar correction and a rebound in gold prices.</p><p><b>Wednesday (June 23) Keywords: Europe and the US June Markit Manufacturing PMI Preliminary Report</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1ada5dfc03bdde86a678460e27d6a51\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>The United States will release its preliminary June Markit Manufacturing PMI.</b>。<b>The market expects the US Markit Manufacturing PMI to fall slightly to 61.8 in June, but it is still at a historically high level and is still favorable to stocks, commodities and risky assets.</b></p><p>In addition,<b>Federal Reserve Governor Bowman, Atlanta Fed President Bostic, and Boston Fed President Rosengren will deliver speeches respectively, which investors should pay close attention to.</b></p><p><b>Thursday (June 24) Keywords: Initial filing data, Fed official speech, Soul IPO, Nike/BlackBerry earnings report</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a613c99edd05cba1056a8acb4759ac4f\" tg-width=\"628\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In terms of data, investors need to pay attention to<b>Changes in the number of initial jobless claims in the United States</b>。<b>The number of people applying for unemployment benefits may continue to decline.</b>Because Americans are more willing to seek jobs after supplemental unemployment benefits expire in many states.</p><p>Regarding financial reports,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NKE\">Nike</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">Blackberry</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">FedEx</a>The new quarterly financial report will be released.</b></p><p>Regarding new stocks,<b>The first social networking company in metaverse<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SSR\">Soul</a>It will be listed on Nasdaq.</b></p><p>In addition,<b>FOMC permanent voting members Williams, President of the New York Federal Reserve, and Bullard, President of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, will deliver speeches separately, which investors should also pay close attention to.</b></p><p><b>Friday (June 25) Keywords: US May PCE data</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6539b1d406c9cd4841b089f661b184f\" tg-width=\"633\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">On Friday, the market will receive one of two key data points monitored by the Federal Reserve—<b>The US PCE price index is a key indicator for measuring private consumer inflation in the United States.</b></p><p>The May report on personal income and spending will show how much Americans are trying to make up for losses during the pandemic. Although the latest retail sales report showed a decline in goods consumption last month, upcoming data may indicate that accelerated growth in the services sector has offset the loss in goods spending.</p><p>Regarding financial reports,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JKS\">Jinko Solar</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02158\">Yidu Technology</a>The new quarterly financial report will be released.</b>Investors may wish to take note.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46744ceebcd5f9f6cbe09f85295d7cfe","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129554767","content_text":"摘要：\n\n经济数据方面：中国LPR利率、美国PCE物价指数、美国初请失业金人数、美国Markit制造业PMI初值...\n\n\n新股方面：中国领先的数字货运平台“满帮”、“社交元宇宙第一股”Soul即将上市；\n\n\n事件方面：美联储主席鲍威尔携手多位美联储官员密集发表讲话；\n\n\n财报方面：耐克、黑莓、晶科能源、医渡科技等多家公司将公布财报。\n\n周一（6月21日）关键词：中国LPR利率\n周一经济数据较少，主要留意中国的LPR利率数据。\n彭博亚洲经济学家团队撰文称，中国人民银行最近一次中期借贷便利(MLF)操作利率持稳，表明贷款市场报价利率(LPR)6月份将维持不变。中国最新的经济活动数据没有给央行改变政策轨道提供紧迫的理由。\n中国一年期贷款市场报价利率（银行对企业贷款参考利率）6月份可能维持在3.85%。五年期LPR（抵押贷款参考利率）可能维持在4.65%。\n周一风险事件也比较少，欧洲时段主要留意英国央行官员讲话，其中审慎监管副行长伍兹就气候风险情景规划发表讲话，金融科技总监 Tom Mutton 就加密资产、稳定币和数字货币发表讲话。\n纽约时段，FOMC永久票委、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯在银行业大会上发表讲话，需要予以关注。\n周二（6月22日）关键词：美联储主席鲍威尔讲话周二经济数据方面，主要关注英国6月CBI工业订单差值、美国5月成屋销售年化总数、欧元区6月消费者信心指数。\n相对而言，美联储官员的讲话更加值得关注，一般在美联储决议后的一周，美联储官员会陆续发表讲话，投资者可以从中获取官员们对未来货币政策的更多细节。\n纽约时段，美联储主席鲍威尔将在国会就新冠疫情应对措施和经济前景发表讲话。这将是市场关注的焦点所在。\n美联储主席鲍威尔6月17日在美联储利率决议后新闻发布会上指出，经济复原程度足以让美联储开始缩减月度购债之前，还有一段长路要走，他并称讨论中甚至没有提到升息时点。相对而言，鲍威尔的态度比美联储决议要稍微鸽派一点，如果鲍威尔发表更加鸽派的讲话，则需要提防美元回调、金价反弹的风险。\n周三（6月23日）关键词：欧美6月Markit制造业PMI初值美国将公布美国6月Markit制造业PMI初值。市场预计美国6月Markit制造业PMI将小幅回落至61.8，但仍处于历史较高水平，仍偏向利好股市、大宗商品和风险资产。\n此外，美联储理事鲍曼、亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克、波士顿联储主席罗森格伦将分别发表讲话，投资者也需要重点关注。\n周四（6月24日）关键词：初请数据、联储官员讲话、Soul上市、耐克/黑莓财报数据方面，投资者需要关注美国的初请失业金人数变动。申领失业救济人数或将继续呈下降趋势，因为许多州的补充失业救济福利到期后，美国人求职意愿增强。\n财报方面，耐克、黑莓、联邦快递将公布新一季财报。\n新股方面，社交元宇宙第一股Soul将登陆纳斯达克上市。\n此外，FOMC永久票委、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯和圣路易斯联储主席布拉德将分别发表讲话，投资者也需要重点关注。\n周五（6月25日）关键词：美国5月PCE数据周五，市场将迎来美联储重点监控的两个数据之一——美国PCE物价指数，这是衡量美国民间消费通胀的关键指标。\n5月份的个人收入和支出报告将显示美国人在多大程度上试图弥补大流行期间的缺失。虽然最新的零售销售报告显示上月商品消费下降，但即将发布的数据可能表明服务业的加速增长弥补了商品支出的损失。\n财报方面，晶科能源、医渡科技将公布新一季财报，投资者可作关注。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3853,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166489406,"gmtCreate":1624022559005,"gmtModify":1703826792751,"author":{"id":"3578565274483399","authorId":"3578565274483399","name":"YodianLai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94ee7091222bfacde34d2a3cee83a9a6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578565274483399","idStr":"3578565274483399"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/166489406","repostId":"1148232508","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148232508","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624022429,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1148232508?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-18 21:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is the bursting of the dot-com bubble in 2000 repeating itself?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148232508","media":"腾讯美股","summary":"当年纳指陷入一片疯狂的时候，标普500指数的表现却是平庸乏味的，而结果就是，2000年3月到6月中旬，纳指血流成河的时候，标普500指数只下跌了4%。今天的情况也差不多，虽然各种趋势股票已经濒临崩盘，","content":"<p><i>When the Nasdaq was in a frenzy, the S&P 500's performance was mediocre and boring. As a result, from March to mid-June 2000, when the Nasdaq was bleeding profusely, the S&P 500 only fell by 4%. The situation is similar today. Although various trending stocks are on the verge of collapse, the S&P 500 index continues to hit new highs.</i><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99c91bf6230050c441088bddb166b2a1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"746\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Could it be that the scene of the dot-com bubble bursting twenty years ago is actually repeating itself right under everyone's noses, and no one is paying attention? This may sound a bit strange, but no one can deny that the astonishing boom-and-bust scene from the second half of 1999 to the first half of 2000 does have some similarities to the frenzy that has unfolded over the past nine months around topics such as clean energy, electric vehicles, marijuana, and special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs).</p><p>If this resemblance between the two continues, it will be extremely bad news for investors who entered the market late. Now, with Tesla as a prime example, the prices of these so-called trending stocks have fallen by a quarter to a third compared to their peaks this year. Now, the only thing left for everyone to feel fortunate is that, unlike around the turn of the millennium, the current troubles are mainly confined to some specific areas, and several reasons support the judgment that the troubles will not spread to the entire market.</p><p>It is not difficult to find striking similarities between then and now in market performance and trader behavior patterns.</p><p>In the second half of 1999, fearing missed opportunities, investors flocked to internet stocks, causing the Nasdaq to surge by as much as 83% in just a few months, from the end of September to its peak in March 2000. The same is true today. From last September to this year's high, Invesco's Solar ETF surged 88%, BlackRock's Global Clean Energy ETF surged 81%, and Ark's Innovation ETF surged 70%.</p><p>Back then, Cisco's stock price, a symbol of the dot-com bubble, surged 133% during this cycle, while Tesla, today's spokesperson for bubble stocks, has seen a peak increase of 110% from last September to this year. Back then, the prices of pure internet stocks tripled, and now, cannabis funds are doing similar things.</p><p>Even the timing is exactly the same. Trending stocks in many sectors peaked in February and March of this year, while the dot-com bubble reached its peak on March 10, 2000. Furthermore, the market performance after the bubble burst until mid-June is exactly the same now as it was then. For example, this year's bubble sector lost between a quarter and a third, while the Nasdaq also lost about a quarter in the same period of 2000.</p><p>The behavior patterns of traders are also highly similar. As 1999 drew to a close, fearing missing the last opportunity, the previous internet skeptics, such as institutional investors and hedge funds that had been sitting on the sidelines, could no longer hold on and began a buying spree. Meanwhile, active day traders took advantage of the IPO trading opportunities of internet companies, often making a fortune in a single day.</p><p>A similar drama was actually unfolding in the last quarter of 2000. Tesla has finally gained widespread recognition and been included in the S&P 500 index. Solar and clean energy have become essential components of large institutional portfolios, so much less a testament to their environmental concerns, and the purchase price has become irrelevant. SPACs replaced traditional IPOs and became the spokespersons for the IPO frenzy of 2000, and many loss-making startups used this tool to successfully go public indirectly.</p><p>In fact, when the Nasdaq was in a frenzy, the S&P 500's performance was mediocre and boring. As a result, from March to mid-June 2000, when the Nasdaq was bleeding profusely, the S&P 500 only fell by 4%. The situation is similar today. Although various trending stocks are on the verge of collapse, the S&P 500 index continues to hit new highs.</p><p>In 2000, it was easy to believe that the overall market would be properly protected, because under the great rotation, people had begun to abandon wild growth stocks in favor of stable, cheap industrial stocks and other overlooked value stocks. In fact, this protection mechanism did work for a period of time. In September 2000, the S&P 500 seemed poised to return to its March high of that year, but by then, people began to learn more and realize that the Nasdaq's frenzy had begun to lead to an economic slowdown. As a result, the S&P 500 turned around and declined, reaching its low point in 2002, almost halved from its peak.</p><p>Fortunately, today, people have every reason to believe that the market will be able to withstand the pressure this time and will not be dragged down by the decline of sectors that were once severely bubbly. Of course, the situation of the S&P 500 index is indeed similar to that of the past. For example, according to Refinitiv data, the index's forward P/E based on earnings expectations is now 21.2, which is not much different from 22.6 twenty years ago. Moreover, people today firmly believe in the great rotation from growth to value.</p><p>The key point is that today's plunge in the prices of trending stocks such as clean energy and electric vehicles, and even the halving of Bitcoin prices, differs from the bursting of the dot-com bubble in that, because the bubble's expansion was not widespread enough, its bursting had a much smaller impact on consumers' disposable funds. When the S&P 500 peaked in 2000, half of its wealth was actually supported by internet stocks. Today, Tesla and those bubble-ridden sectors combined, the proportion is far less than it was back then.</p><p>The corresponding corporate financing and expenditure scales of these sectors that experienced a market bubble and then burst today are far inferior to those of the dot-com bubble boom and burst cycle, and they also have far fewer employees. If a company accounts for a small proportion of the economy, its influence on the economy will naturally be smaller. Today is different from back then. Not as many large companies are investing heavily in the so-called \"new economy\" they imagine. As for the investment directions they have already chosen, such as electric vehicles, they are expected to continue in the future for various reasons. It is impossible to change course just because shareholders are unhappy.</p><p>Treasury Bond has also provided more support for the stock this time. In 2000, with the 10-year Treasury Bond returning nearly 7% annually and the S&P 500 expecting earnings of only 4% of its price, stock market investors certainly had reason to worry about investment being diverted. But this time is different. Although the earnings return of the S&P 500 is not much different from before, the return of the 10-year Treasury Bond is only 1.5%.</p><p>Of course, the U.S. economy and stock market are facing many other different threats, but there is reason to believe that the small-scale repeat of the dot-com bubble of the past nine months is actually just a mini-bubble. Similar mini-bubbles have appeared more than once in the bull market since 2009, only this round is larger in scale.</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the bursting of the dot-com bubble in 2000 repeating itself?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the bursting of the dot-com bubble in 2000 repeating itself?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">腾讯美股</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 21:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i>When the Nasdaq was in a frenzy, the S&P 500's performance was mediocre and boring. As a result, from March to mid-June 2000, when the Nasdaq was bleeding profusely, the S&P 500 only fell by 4%. The situation is similar today. Although various trending stocks are on the verge of collapse, the S&P 500 index continues to hit new highs.</i><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99c91bf6230050c441088bddb166b2a1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"746\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Could it be that the scene of the dot-com bubble bursting twenty years ago is actually repeating itself right under everyone's noses, and no one is paying attention? This may sound a bit strange, but no one can deny that the astonishing boom-and-bust scene from the second half of 1999 to the first half of 2000 does have some similarities to the frenzy that has unfolded over the past nine months around topics such as clean energy, electric vehicles, marijuana, and special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs).</p><p>If this resemblance between the two continues, it will be extremely bad news for investors who entered the market late. Now, with Tesla as a prime example, the prices of these so-called trending stocks have fallen by a quarter to a third compared to their peaks this year. Now, the only thing left for everyone to feel fortunate is that, unlike around the turn of the millennium, the current troubles are mainly confined to some specific areas, and several reasons support the judgment that the troubles will not spread to the entire market.</p><p>It is not difficult to find striking similarities between then and now in market performance and trader behavior patterns.</p><p>In the second half of 1999, fearing missed opportunities, investors flocked to internet stocks, causing the Nasdaq to surge by as much as 83% in just a few months, from the end of September to its peak in March 2000. The same is true today. From last September to this year's high, Invesco's Solar ETF surged 88%, BlackRock's Global Clean Energy ETF surged 81%, and Ark's Innovation ETF surged 70%.</p><p>Back then, Cisco's stock price, a symbol of the dot-com bubble, surged 133% during this cycle, while Tesla, today's spokesperson for bubble stocks, has seen a peak increase of 110% from last September to this year. Back then, the prices of pure internet stocks tripled, and now, cannabis funds are doing similar things.</p><p>Even the timing is exactly the same. Trending stocks in many sectors peaked in February and March of this year, while the dot-com bubble reached its peak on March 10, 2000. Furthermore, the market performance after the bubble burst until mid-June is exactly the same now as it was then. For example, this year's bubble sector lost between a quarter and a third, while the Nasdaq also lost about a quarter in the same period of 2000.</p><p>The behavior patterns of traders are also highly similar. As 1999 drew to a close, fearing missing the last opportunity, the previous internet skeptics, such as institutional investors and hedge funds that had been sitting on the sidelines, could no longer hold on and began a buying spree. Meanwhile, active day traders took advantage of the IPO trading opportunities of internet companies, often making a fortune in a single day.</p><p>A similar drama was actually unfolding in the last quarter of 2000. Tesla has finally gained widespread recognition and been included in the S&P 500 index. Solar and clean energy have become essential components of large institutional portfolios, so much less a testament to their environmental concerns, and the purchase price has become irrelevant. SPACs replaced traditional IPOs and became the spokespersons for the IPO frenzy of 2000, and many loss-making startups used this tool to successfully go public indirectly.</p><p>In fact, when the Nasdaq was in a frenzy, the S&P 500's performance was mediocre and boring. As a result, from March to mid-June 2000, when the Nasdaq was bleeding profusely, the S&P 500 only fell by 4%. The situation is similar today. Although various trending stocks are on the verge of collapse, the S&P 500 index continues to hit new highs.</p><p>In 2000, it was easy to believe that the overall market would be properly protected, because under the great rotation, people had begun to abandon wild growth stocks in favor of stable, cheap industrial stocks and other overlooked value stocks. In fact, this protection mechanism did work for a period of time. In September 2000, the S&P 500 seemed poised to return to its March high of that year, but by then, people began to learn more and realize that the Nasdaq's frenzy had begun to lead to an economic slowdown. As a result, the S&P 500 turned around and declined, reaching its low point in 2002, almost halved from its peak.</p><p>Fortunately, today, people have every reason to believe that the market will be able to withstand the pressure this time and will not be dragged down by the decline of sectors that were once severely bubbly. Of course, the situation of the S&P 500 index is indeed similar to that of the past. For example, according to Refinitiv data, the index's forward P/E based on earnings expectations is now 21.2, which is not much different from 22.6 twenty years ago. Moreover, people today firmly believe in the great rotation from growth to value.</p><p>The key point is that today's plunge in the prices of trending stocks such as clean energy and electric vehicles, and even the halving of Bitcoin prices, differs from the bursting of the dot-com bubble in that, because the bubble's expansion was not widespread enough, its bursting had a much smaller impact on consumers' disposable funds. When the S&P 500 peaked in 2000, half of its wealth was actually supported by internet stocks. Today, Tesla and those bubble-ridden sectors combined, the proportion is far less than it was back then.</p><p>The corresponding corporate financing and expenditure scales of these sectors that experienced a market bubble and then burst today are far inferior to those of the dot-com bubble boom and burst cycle, and they also have far fewer employees. If a company accounts for a small proportion of the economy, its influence on the economy will naturally be smaller. Today is different from back then. Not as many large companies are investing heavily in the so-called \"new economy\" they imagine. As for the investment directions they have already chosen, such as electric vehicles, they are expected to continue in the future for various reasons. It is impossible to change course just because shareholders are unhappy.</p><p>Treasury Bond has also provided more support for the stock this time. In 2000, with the 10-year Treasury Bond returning nearly 7% annually and the S&P 500 expecting earnings of only 4% of its price, stock market investors certainly had reason to worry about investment being diverted. But this time is different. Although the earnings return of the S&P 500 is not much different from before, the return of the 10-year Treasury Bond is only 1.5%.</p><p>Of course, the U.S. economy and stock market are facing many other different threats, but there is reason to believe that the small-scale repeat of the dot-com bubble of the past nine months is actually just a mini-bubble. Similar mini-bubbles have appeared more than once in the bull market since 2009, only this round is larger in scale.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/4ouQLb804GMKxIMH9670ZA\">腾讯美股</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99c91bf6230050c441088bddb166b2a1","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/4ouQLb804GMKxIMH9670ZA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148232508","content_text":"当年纳指陷入一片疯狂的时候，标普500指数的表现却是平庸乏味的，而结果就是，2000年3月到6月中旬，纳指血流成河的时候，标普500指数只下跌了4%。今天的情况也差不多，虽然各种趋势股票已经濒临崩盘，但是标普500指数还在持续创下新高。\n\n\n难道说，二十年前互联网泡沫破灭的一幕其实正在大家眼皮底下重演，却没有人注意到？听起来，这种说法似乎是有点怪异，但是谁都不能不承认，1999年下半年到2000年上半年令人瞠目结舌的从繁荣到毁灭的那一幕，与最近九个月以来围绕着清洁能源、电动汽车、大麻和特殊目的收购公司（SPAC）等主题上演的疯狂，确实颇有异曲同工之处。\n如果两者之间的这种神似一直保持下去，那么对于入场较晚的投资者而言，简直就是个天大的坏消息了。现在，以特斯拉为典型代表，这些所谓趋势股票的价格与今年的高点相比，都已经下跌了四分之一到三分之一。现在，大家唯一可以感到庆幸的只剩下了一点，即与千禧年前后不同，当下的麻烦主要局限在一些特定领域当中，若干理由都支撑着麻烦不会扩散到整个大盘的判断。\n从市场表现和交易者行为模式当中，都不难找到当时与现在的神似之处。\n1999年下半年，由于害怕错失机会，投资者纷纷追捧互联网股票，使得纳指从9月底到2000年3月的顶点，短短几个月就暴涨了83%之多。今天也是如此，从去年9月到今年的高点，Invesco旗下太阳能ETF大涨88%，贝莱德旗下全球清洁能源ETF大涨81%，Ark 旗下创新ETF大涨70%。\n当初，互联网泡沫的标志性股票思科股价在这个周期内大涨133%，而今天的泡沫股票代言人特斯拉，从去年9月到今年峰值的涨幅是110%。当初，那些纯粹的互联网股票价格都翻升了两倍，而现在，大麻基金也有类似表现。\n甚至时间节点都丝毫不差。众多领域的趋势股票都是在今年2月和3月见顶，而当初，互联网泡沫达到最高点是在2000年3月10日。还有，在泡沫破灭之后直至6月中旬的行情，现在和当时也是如出一辙，比如今年的泡沫领域损失幅度在四分之一到三分之一之间，而2000年同期，纳指也是损失了大约四分之一。\n交易者的行为模式也高度类似。到了接近1999年年底的时候，由于害怕错失最后的机会，那些之前的互联网怀疑者，比如机构投资者，以及一直坚持作壁上观的对冲基金都再也坚持不住了，开启了买买买模式，而活跃的日间交易者更是利用互联网公司的IPO交易机会，经常一天就赚到盆满钵满。\n2000年最后一个季度，其实也在上演类似的戏码。特斯拉终于得到广泛的认可，纳入了标普500指数。太阳能和清洁能源变成了大机构投资组合当中的必备成分，不如此不足以证明他们对环境问题的重视，至于买进价格已经无关紧要了。SPAC取代了传统IPO，成为2000年上市狂热的代言人，许多亏损的初创公司都利用这一工具曲线上市成功。\n事实上，当年纳指陷入一片疯狂的时候，标普500指数的表现却是平庸乏味的，而结果就是，2000年3月到6月中旬，纳指血流成河的时候，标普500指数只下跌了4%。今天的情况也差不多，虽然各种趋势股票已经濒临崩盘，但是标普500指数还在持续创下新高。\n2000年的时候，人们很容易相信，整个大盘将得到妥当的保护，因为大轮动之下，人们已经开始放弃狂野的成长型股票，转向稳健、廉价的工业股票，以及其他被忽视的价值型股票。事实上，这保护机制确实在一段时间内发挥了作用。2000年9月，标普500指数一度大有重归当年3月高点的意思，但是这时，大家开始了解到更多的信息，意识到纳指的疯狂行情已经开始导致经济减速了。于是标普500指数调头下行，到2002年的低点，与峰值相比几乎腰斩。\n好在今天，人们有充分的理由相信，这一次，大盘是能够顶住压力，不至于因为那些曾经泡沫化严重的板块的沉沦而被拖下水。当然，现在和当初，标普500指数的处境其实确实有类似之处，比如根据Refinitiv的数据，指数基于盈利预期的前瞻市盈率现在是21.2，距离二十年前的22.6相去无几，而且今天的人们也笃信着从成长型到价值型的大轮动。\n关键在于，今天清洁能源、电动汽车等趋势股票价格的暴跌，甚至连比特币价格的腰斩都算上，与当年互联网泡沫破灭不同的地方就在于，因为泡沫扩张的范围不够广，因此其破灭对消费者可支配资金的影响要小得多。标普500指数达到2000年峰值的时候，其身家的半数其实都来自互联网股票的支持，而今天，特斯拉和那些泡沫化板块加在一起，比例也远不及当年。\n今天市场先泡沫后破灭的这些板块，相应企业融资和支出规模都远不能和互联网泡沫繁荣和破灭周期同日而语，而且员工人数也要少得多。如果企业在经济当中占比较小，则其对经济的影响力自然也就来得较小。今天和当年不同，并没有那么多大企业大力投资于想象中的所谓“新经济”，而至于他们已经选择的投资方向，比如电动汽车，未来预计也还会因为种种原因继续下去，不可能单单因为股东不高兴就改弦更张。\n国债这次也为股票提供了更多的支持。在2000年，面对十年期国债年回报率接近7%，而标普500指数的盈利预期只有价格的4%的局面，股市投资者当然有理由担心投资被分流。可是这次不同，虽然标普500指数的盈利收益率与当初相差不多，但是十年期国债的收益率却只有区区1.5%。\n当然，美国经济和股市还在面对着其他许多不同的威胁，但是人们有理由相信，过去九个月的互联网泡沫小规模重演其实只是一场迷你泡沫，类似这样的迷你泡沫在2009年之后的大牛市当中已经出现过不止一次了，差别只是这一轮的体量要更大一点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5581,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166417965,"gmtCreate":1624022469657,"gmtModify":1703826788863,"author":{"id":"3578565274483399","authorId":"3578565274483399","name":"YodianLai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94ee7091222bfacde34d2a3cee83a9a6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578565274483399","idStr":"3578565274483399"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/166417965","repostId":"1131103648","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131103648","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624021249,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1131103648?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-18 21:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Noah's Chief Economist: rate hike Too Fast and Too Much May Trigger Debt Crisis","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131103648","media":"腾讯美股","summary":"诺亚控股首席经济学家夏春表示，在8月份全球央行会议上公布缩减QE的计划可能性是最高的，预计美联储最快也要到明年一季度才开始正式缩减购债。考虑到目前低利率环境，美联储正式开始缩减QE，以及开始加息时，对","content":"<p><i>Xia Chun, chief economist at Noah Holdings, said that the highest probability is that a plan to taper QE will be announced at the global central bank meeting in August, and the Federal Reserve is not expected to officially begin tapering bond purchases until the first quarter of next year at the earliest. Given the current low-interest-rate environment, the negative impact on US stocks when the Federal Reserve officially begins tapering QE and begins a rate hike should be relatively short-lived. The performance of US stocks is more influenced by changes in corporate earnings and valuations. However, after several rate hike, coupled with shrinking balance sheet, US stocks will also experience a significant correction, but this may not happen until 2024.</i><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/addb3eb595ad4a26afb82ab7d3609422\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At 2:00 AM Beijing time on June 17, the Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision, announcing that it would keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0%-0.25% while maintaining its bond purchases at $120 billion per month, in line with broad market expectations. However, the Federal Reserve has not given any timetable for tapering QE (Quantitative Easing, Quantitative Easing), which the market is closely watching.</p><p>In addition, the Federal Reserve significantly raised its inflation forecast for this year, bringing forward the timeframe for the next rate hike. The dot plot shows that the Federal Reserve will rate hike twice before the end of 2023. Previously, they stated in March that they would not rate hike until at least 2024. This triggered significant volatility in financial markets, a surge in US Treasury yields, and a sharp decline in US stocks across the board.</p><p>In response, Xia Chun, chief economist at Noah Holdings, said that currently, there is a high probability of two rate hike in 2023. The trend of the US dollar is closely correlated with the trend of Treasury Bond yields. From the perspective of fundamentals, valuations and some technical indicators, there is a possibility that the US dollar will strengthen or weaken in the short term. In particular, if the plan to taper QE is announced in August, it will provide short-term support for the US dollar.</p><p>As for the performance of US stocks, the relationship between them and US Treasury yields and the US dollar in the short term is not so direct. On the contrary, it is more closely related to corporate earnings performance and market risk appetite. However, after several rate hike, coupled with shrinking balance sheet, US stocks will also experience a significant correction, but this may not happen until 2024.</p><p>He also stated that announcing a plan to taper QE at the global central bank meeting in August is the most likely, as the June economic data, particularly inflation data, released in July is an important basis for testing the current views of the Federal Reserve and the market. Given the timing of the announcement of the QE tapering plan, it is highly unlikely that the Federal Reserve will formally begin tapering QE by the end of this year. We expect the Federal Reserve to not begin formally tapering its bond purchases until the first quarter of next year at the earliest.</p><p>The following is a transcript of the interview:</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>Finance: Is there a contradiction in the Federal Reserve significantly raising its inflation expectations while also stating that inflation is only temporary? Is there a risk of inflation getting out of control?</p><p>Xia Chun: The Federal Reserve's June meeting raised the core inflation rate to 3% from 2.2% at its March meeting, which is closely related to the fact that inflation data in April and May both exceeded market expectations.<b>It is normal for the Federal Reserve to update its inflation expectations based on new data and does not contradict the view that inflation is only temporary.</b>。</p><p>The major factors currently driving inflation, such as the base effect, the release of pent-up demand, supply and logistics bottlenecks, the Biden administration's fiscal stimulus policies, labor market shortages, and rising commodity prices, are mostly temporary. For example, economic growth momentum will peak in the second quarter, and general consumption, durable goods, new home demand, and commodity prices have recently fallen from their highs. The end of the federal unemployment benefit program at the end of September will help improve labor market employment.</p><p>In addition, we have seen a significant slowdown in the growth rate of M2 money supply, the velocity of money circulation remains low, and enterprise labor costs have remained at a stable level from before the start of the pandemic to now. Current investigations also show<b>Most economists and fund managers agree that inflation is temporary and will decline significantly in the fourth quarter.</b></p><p>The relatively high uncertainty lies in the impact of the recurring pandemic on the supply chain, as well as the unexpected consequences of some policies (such as the reaction to chip shortages exceeding the predictions of general economic models). Therefore, there is no clear range for \"temporary\" (although most people believe it will be within 3-6 months).</p><p><b>The risk of inflation getting out of control is very small. For example, the antibodies of a group of people who were vaccinated earlier began to fail, and the epidemic worsened in the fourth quarter. At present, this possibility seems small.</b>The Federal Reserve can control some speculative demand and avoid runaway inflation by adjusting monetary policy, but monetary policy cannot solve the supply shortages and supply chain bottlenecks caused by the pandemic.</p><p>Tencent Finance: The dot plot shows that two rate hike are expected before the end of 2023. However, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that dot plots are not a good tool for predicting future interest rate trends, and a rate hike is still a long way off. What do you think of Powell's statement? Will rate hike happen ahead of schedule? Will Federal Reserve officials expect earlier and more frequent rate hike to push up the dollar and cause a sharp drop in US stocks?</p><p>Xia Chun: Powell maintained his usual dovish stance, however<b>Historically, dot plots have indeed not been a very good predictive tool.</b>According to the Federal Reserve's dot plot since the 2020 pandemic, there will be no rate hike before 2023. In other words, the rate hike will not begin until 2024. However, the actual situation is that the US economy performed better than expected starting in the third quarter of 2020. Therefore, the market generally believes that the rate hike will be earlier than the Federal Reserve expected. Currently, there is a high probability of two rate hike in 2023.</p><p><b>The trend of the US dollar is closely correlated with the trend of Treasury Bond yields.</b>Judging from fundamentals, valuations, and some technical indicators,<b>The dollar is likely to strengthen or weaken in the short term, especially if a plan to taper QE is announced in August, which would provide short-term support for the dollar.</b>。 As for the trend of US stocks,<b>In the short term, the relationship with US Treasury yields and the US dollar is not so direct; on the contrary, it is more closely related to corporate profitability and market risk appetite.</b></p><p>Given the current low-interest-rate environment, the negative impact on US stocks when the Federal Reserve officially begins tapering QE and begins a rate hike should be relatively short-lived. The performance of US stocks is more influenced by changes in corporate earnings and valuations. but<b>After several rate hike, coupled with shrinking balance sheet, US stocks will also experience a significant correction, but this may not happen until 2024.</b></p><p>Tencent Finance: The Federal Reserve's policy statement did not provide any clues about tapering QE. Meanwhile, a Bloomberg survey shows that many economists expect the Fed to release signals about tapering QE at the global central bank annual meeting in August. What are your thoughts on this? Do you think the Federal Reserve will begin tapering QE this year?</p><p>Xia Chun: Due to some recent economic data that is not ideal, the market believes that the Federal Reserve will not discuss the plan to taper QE at its June meeting. Powell explained that more data is needed before serious discussions on tapering QE can begin.<b>The highest probability is that a plan to taper QE will be announced at the global central bank meeting in August, as the June economic data, especially inflation data, released in July is an important basis for testing the current views of the Federal Reserve and the market.</b>Referring to the market shocks caused by past tapering of QE, the Federal Reserve hopes to release clearer information that is more in line with market expectations in order to reduce the impact on the market.</p><p>Considering the timing of the announcement of the QE tapering plan,<b>It is highly unlikely that the Federal Reserve will formally begin tapering QE by the end of this year.</b>In May 2013, it was announced that the QE program would be reduced, and the actual implementation began in December of that year. We<b>The Federal Reserve is not expected to officially begin tapering its bond purchases until the first quarter of next year at the earliest.</b></p><p>Tencent Finance: What does the Federal Reserve mean by adjusting the excess reserve rate (IOER) from 0.1% to 0.15% and the overnight reverse repo rate from 0% to 0.05%? What impact will this have on the market?</p><p>Xia Chun: These are mainly minor adjustments to the liquidity of the money market and repurchase market. There were also lower adjustments in May.<b>Little impact on the stock and bond markets</b>。</p><p>Tencent Finance: US Treasury yields have been declining recently, once falling below 1.5%. Why is this happening? Do you expect US Treasury yields to rise further? What level will it rise to this year?</p><p>Xia Chun: The core reason is that some recently released economic data (consumption, employment, etc.) have fallen short of expectations, the probability of economic growth peaking in the second quarter has increased, and market demand for Treasury Bond has risen, especially from overseas funds. On the other hand, the upward momentum of global stock markets has eased after a short-term surge, and the likelihood of listed companies continuing to exceed market expectations in the future has decreased after achieving good overall performance.</p><p>The upward momentum for U.S. Treasury yields in the second half of the year should occur around the time the Federal Reserve officially announces its timetable for tapering bond purchases.<b>Ten years ago, Treasury Bond yields were expected to rise by nearly 2% in the second half of the year, but it is unlikely to exceed them.</b></p><p>Tencent Finance: Since March 2020, the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government have been taking a two-pronged approach, simultaneously launching large-scale monetary and fiscal stimulus. Currently, the US debt exceeds $28 trillion. Would the arrival of rate hike ahead of schedule trigger a fiscal and debt crisis?</p><p>Xia Chun:<b>Currently, the US debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 130%, while several other major developed economies are also approaching this percentage.</b>Historically, such a high proportion of Treasury Bond would have had adverse consequences for the economy. Considering that it is currently difficult to resolve the issue through methods such as default, debt restructuring, and devaluation, allowing inflation to indirectly reduce debt repayment has been a common practice throughout history.</p><p>At current interest rates, the ratio of interest repayments to GDP in the US Treasury Bond is not relatively high compared to history.<b>rate hike will push up molecular interest rates, expanding this proportion, increasing the risk of dollar depreciation, triggering a debt crisis, and hindering congressional approval for U.S. infrastructure and social projects.</b>。</p><p>In addition to these considerations, the Federal Reserve and the Treasury also hope to suppress real interest rates by tolerating high inflation levels, reduce the savings levels of residents and businesses (mainly the wealthy and large corporations), and increase investment demand. This will help boost economic growth and solve the current problem of excessively high Treasury Bond by increasing the denominator of GDP.</p><p>In summary, the Federal Reserve's assessment of the temporary nature of inflation is reasonable, and there is also a practical need to tolerate inflation.</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Noah's Chief Economist: rate hike Too Fast and Too Much May Trigger Debt Crisis</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNoah's Chief Economist: rate hike Too Fast and Too Much May Trigger Debt Crisis\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">腾讯美股</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 21:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i>Xia Chun, chief economist at Noah Holdings, said that the highest probability is that a plan to taper QE will be announced at the global central bank meeting in August, and the Federal Reserve is not expected to officially begin tapering bond purchases until the first quarter of next year at the earliest. Given the current low-interest-rate environment, the negative impact on US stocks when the Federal Reserve officially begins tapering QE and begins a rate hike should be relatively short-lived. The performance of US stocks is more influenced by changes in corporate earnings and valuations. However, after several rate hike, coupled with shrinking balance sheet, US stocks will also experience a significant correction, but this may not happen until 2024.</i><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/addb3eb595ad4a26afb82ab7d3609422\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At 2:00 AM Beijing time on June 17, the Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision, announcing that it would keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0%-0.25% while maintaining its bond purchases at $120 billion per month, in line with broad market expectations. However, the Federal Reserve has not given any timetable for tapering QE (Quantitative Easing, Quantitative Easing), which the market is closely watching.</p><p>In addition, the Federal Reserve significantly raised its inflation forecast for this year, bringing forward the timeframe for the next rate hike. The dot plot shows that the Federal Reserve will rate hike twice before the end of 2023. Previously, they stated in March that they would not rate hike until at least 2024. This triggered significant volatility in financial markets, a surge in US Treasury yields, and a sharp decline in US stocks across the board.</p><p>In response, Xia Chun, chief economist at Noah Holdings, said that currently, there is a high probability of two rate hike in 2023. The trend of the US dollar is closely correlated with the trend of Treasury Bond yields. From the perspective of fundamentals, valuations and some technical indicators, there is a possibility that the US dollar will strengthen or weaken in the short term. In particular, if the plan to taper QE is announced in August, it will provide short-term support for the US dollar.</p><p>As for the performance of US stocks, the relationship between them and US Treasury yields and the US dollar in the short term is not so direct. On the contrary, it is more closely related to corporate earnings performance and market risk appetite. However, after several rate hike, coupled with shrinking balance sheet, US stocks will also experience a significant correction, but this may not happen until 2024.</p><p>He also stated that announcing a plan to taper QE at the global central bank meeting in August is the most likely, as the June economic data, particularly inflation data, released in July is an important basis for testing the current views of the Federal Reserve and the market. Given the timing of the announcement of the QE tapering plan, it is highly unlikely that the Federal Reserve will formally begin tapering QE by the end of this year. We expect the Federal Reserve to not begin formally tapering its bond purchases until the first quarter of next year at the earliest.</p><p>The following is a transcript of the interview:</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>Finance: Is there a contradiction in the Federal Reserve significantly raising its inflation expectations while also stating that inflation is only temporary? Is there a risk of inflation getting out of control?</p><p>Xia Chun: The Federal Reserve's June meeting raised the core inflation rate to 3% from 2.2% at its March meeting, which is closely related to the fact that inflation data in April and May both exceeded market expectations.<b>It is normal for the Federal Reserve to update its inflation expectations based on new data and does not contradict the view that inflation is only temporary.</b>。</p><p>The major factors currently driving inflation, such as the base effect, the release of pent-up demand, supply and logistics bottlenecks, the Biden administration's fiscal stimulus policies, labor market shortages, and rising commodity prices, are mostly temporary. For example, economic growth momentum will peak in the second quarter, and general consumption, durable goods, new home demand, and commodity prices have recently fallen from their highs. The end of the federal unemployment benefit program at the end of September will help improve labor market employment.</p><p>In addition, we have seen a significant slowdown in the growth rate of M2 money supply, the velocity of money circulation remains low, and enterprise labor costs have remained at a stable level from before the start of the pandemic to now. Current investigations also show<b>Most economists and fund managers agree that inflation is temporary and will decline significantly in the fourth quarter.</b></p><p>The relatively high uncertainty lies in the impact of the recurring pandemic on the supply chain, as well as the unexpected consequences of some policies (such as the reaction to chip shortages exceeding the predictions of general economic models). Therefore, there is no clear range for \"temporary\" (although most people believe it will be within 3-6 months).</p><p><b>The risk of inflation getting out of control is very small. For example, the antibodies of a group of people who were vaccinated earlier began to fail, and the epidemic worsened in the fourth quarter. At present, this possibility seems small.</b>The Federal Reserve can control some speculative demand and avoid runaway inflation by adjusting monetary policy, but monetary policy cannot solve the supply shortages and supply chain bottlenecks caused by the pandemic.</p><p>Tencent Finance: The dot plot shows that two rate hike are expected before the end of 2023. However, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that dot plots are not a good tool for predicting future interest rate trends, and a rate hike is still a long way off. What do you think of Powell's statement? Will rate hike happen ahead of schedule? Will Federal Reserve officials expect earlier and more frequent rate hike to push up the dollar and cause a sharp drop in US stocks?</p><p>Xia Chun: Powell maintained his usual dovish stance, however<b>Historically, dot plots have indeed not been a very good predictive tool.</b>According to the Federal Reserve's dot plot since the 2020 pandemic, there will be no rate hike before 2023. In other words, the rate hike will not begin until 2024. However, the actual situation is that the US economy performed better than expected starting in the third quarter of 2020. Therefore, the market generally believes that the rate hike will be earlier than the Federal Reserve expected. Currently, there is a high probability of two rate hike in 2023.</p><p><b>The trend of the US dollar is closely correlated with the trend of Treasury Bond yields.</b>Judging from fundamentals, valuations, and some technical indicators,<b>The dollar is likely to strengthen or weaken in the short term, especially if a plan to taper QE is announced in August, which would provide short-term support for the dollar.</b>。 As for the trend of US stocks,<b>In the short term, the relationship with US Treasury yields and the US dollar is not so direct; on the contrary, it is more closely related to corporate profitability and market risk appetite.</b></p><p>Given the current low-interest-rate environment, the negative impact on US stocks when the Federal Reserve officially begins tapering QE and begins a rate hike should be relatively short-lived. The performance of US stocks is more influenced by changes in corporate earnings and valuations. but<b>After several rate hike, coupled with shrinking balance sheet, US stocks will also experience a significant correction, but this may not happen until 2024.</b></p><p>Tencent Finance: The Federal Reserve's policy statement did not provide any clues about tapering QE. Meanwhile, a Bloomberg survey shows that many economists expect the Fed to release signals about tapering QE at the global central bank annual meeting in August. What are your thoughts on this? Do you think the Federal Reserve will begin tapering QE this year?</p><p>Xia Chun: Due to some recent economic data that is not ideal, the market believes that the Federal Reserve will not discuss the plan to taper QE at its June meeting. Powell explained that more data is needed before serious discussions on tapering QE can begin.<b>The highest probability is that a plan to taper QE will be announced at the global central bank meeting in August, as the June economic data, especially inflation data, released in July is an important basis for testing the current views of the Federal Reserve and the market.</b>Referring to the market shocks caused by past tapering of QE, the Federal Reserve hopes to release clearer information that is more in line with market expectations in order to reduce the impact on the market.</p><p>Considering the timing of the announcement of the QE tapering plan,<b>It is highly unlikely that the Federal Reserve will formally begin tapering QE by the end of this year.</b>In May 2013, it was announced that the QE program would be reduced, and the actual implementation began in December of that year. We<b>The Federal Reserve is not expected to officially begin tapering its bond purchases until the first quarter of next year at the earliest.</b></p><p>Tencent Finance: What does the Federal Reserve mean by adjusting the excess reserve rate (IOER) from 0.1% to 0.15% and the overnight reverse repo rate from 0% to 0.05%? What impact will this have on the market?</p><p>Xia Chun: These are mainly minor adjustments to the liquidity of the money market and repurchase market. There were also lower adjustments in May.<b>Little impact on the stock and bond markets</b>。</p><p>Tencent Finance: US Treasury yields have been declining recently, once falling below 1.5%. Why is this happening? Do you expect US Treasury yields to rise further? What level will it rise to this year?</p><p>Xia Chun: The core reason is that some recently released economic data (consumption, employment, etc.) have fallen short of expectations, the probability of economic growth peaking in the second quarter has increased, and market demand for Treasury Bond has risen, especially from overseas funds. On the other hand, the upward momentum of global stock markets has eased after a short-term surge, and the likelihood of listed companies continuing to exceed market expectations in the future has decreased after achieving good overall performance.</p><p>The upward momentum for U.S. Treasury yields in the second half of the year should occur around the time the Federal Reserve officially announces its timetable for tapering bond purchases.<b>Ten years ago, Treasury Bond yields were expected to rise by nearly 2% in the second half of the year, but it is unlikely to exceed them.</b></p><p>Tencent Finance: Since March 2020, the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government have been taking a two-pronged approach, simultaneously launching large-scale monetary and fiscal stimulus. Currently, the US debt exceeds $28 trillion. Would the arrival of rate hike ahead of schedule trigger a fiscal and debt crisis?</p><p>Xia Chun:<b>Currently, the US debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 130%, while several other major developed economies are also approaching this percentage.</b>Historically, such a high proportion of Treasury Bond would have had adverse consequences for the economy. Considering that it is currently difficult to resolve the issue through methods such as default, debt restructuring, and devaluation, allowing inflation to indirectly reduce debt repayment has been a common practice throughout history.</p><p>At current interest rates, the ratio of interest repayments to GDP in the US Treasury Bond is not relatively high compared to history.<b>rate hike will push up molecular interest rates, expanding this proportion, increasing the risk of dollar depreciation, triggering a debt crisis, and hindering congressional approval for U.S. infrastructure and social projects.</b>。</p><p>In addition to these considerations, the Federal Reserve and the Treasury also hope to suppress real interest rates by tolerating high inflation levels, reduce the savings levels of residents and businesses (mainly the wealthy and large corporations), and increase investment demand. This will help boost economic growth and solve the current problem of excessively high Treasury Bond by increasing the denominator of GDP.</p><p>In summary, the Federal Reserve's assessment of the temporary nature of inflation is reasonable, and there is also a practical need to tolerate inflation.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/D26oXlpOoaJEhKQaoZ4LPA\">腾讯美股</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/addb3eb595ad4a26afb82ab7d3609422","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/D26oXlpOoaJEhKQaoZ4LPA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131103648","content_text":"诺亚控股首席经济学家夏春表示，在8月份全球央行会议上公布缩减QE的计划可能性是最高的，预计美联储最快也要到明年一季度才开始正式缩减购债。考虑到目前低利率环境，美联储正式开始缩减QE，以及开始加息时，对美股的负面影响应该都会比较短暂。美股走势更多会受到企业盈利和估值变化的影响。不过数次加息之后，叠加上缩表，美股也会迎来明显的调整，但这个出现的时间可能要到2024年了。\n\n\n北京时间6月17日凌晨2点，美联储公布利率决议，宣布维持基准利率在0%-0.25%区间不变，同时维持购债规模在每月1200亿美元不变，符合市场广泛预期。但是，市场密切关注的缩减QE（Quantitative Easing，量化宽松）问题，美联储并未给出任何时间表。\n此外，美联储大幅上调对今年通胀的预期，还提前了下一次加息的时间框架。“点阵图”显示，美联储在2023年底前将会加息两次。此前，他们在3月份表示，至少在2024年之前都不会加息。这引发了金融市场大幅波动，美债收益率大幅飙升，美股全线大跌。\n对此，诺亚控股首席经济学家夏春表示，目前来看，2023年出现两次加息的可能性较大。美元走势与国债收益率走势的相关性较大，从基本面，估值以及一些技术性指标来看，美元在短期内走强和走弱的可能性都存在，特别是如果缩减QE的计划在8月宣布，会对美元带来短期支撑的效果。\n至于美股的走势，短期内与美债收益率和美元的关系并不是那么直接，相反与企业盈利表现以及市场的风险偏好关系更加明显一些。不过数次加息之后，叠加上缩表，美股也会迎来明显的调整，但这个出现的时间可能要到2024年了。\n他还表示，在8月份全球央行会议上公布缩减QE的计划可能性是最高的，因为7月份公布的6月份经济数据，特别是通胀数据是检验目前美联储和市场观点的重要依据。考虑到公布缩减QE计划的时间，美联储在今年底开始正式缩减QE的可能性很小。我们预计美联储最快也要到明年一季度才开始正式缩减购债。\n以下为采访实录：\n腾讯财经：美联储大幅上调通胀预期，同时还称通胀只是暂时的，这是否有矛盾？通胀是否有失控的风险？\n夏春：美联储6月会议将核心通胀率从3月会议的2.2%上调到3%，与过去4月和5月的通胀数据均超过市场预期紧密相关，美联储根据新的数据更新通胀预期是正常的，与通胀只是暂时的观点并没有矛盾。\n目前推升通胀的几大因素例如基数效应，被压抑的需求释放，供应与物流瓶颈，拜登政府的财政刺激政策，劳动力市场短缺，大宗商品价格上升等因素大部分都是暂时的，例如经济增长动力将在二季度见顶，一般消费，耐用消费品，新房需求，大宗商品价格等最近已经从高点回落，联邦失业补助计划在9月底结束有助于改善劳动力市场就业等。\n此外，我们看到M2货币供应增速明显回落，货币流通速度依然保持在低位，企业用工成本在疫情开始前到现在均维持在稳定的水平。目前调查也显示大部分经济学家和基金经理认同通胀是暂时的，四季度会明显回落。\n相对来说不确定性较高的部分在于疫情反复对供应链的影响，以及部分政策产生的意料之外的结果（例如对芯片短缺带来的反应超出一般经济模型的预测范围）。也因此“暂时性”并没有一个清晰的区间（尽管大部分人认为在3-6个月内）。\n通胀失控的风险很小，例如较早接种疫苗的一批人的抗体开始失效，而疫情在四季度出现恶化，目前来看这种可能性较小。美联储可以通过货币政策的调整来控制一些投机型的需求避免通胀失控，但货币政策无法解决疫情造成的供给短缺和供应链瓶颈。\n腾讯财经：点阵图显示，2023年底前料有两次加息。但美联储主席鲍威尔表示，点阵图对未来利率走势不是一个很好的预测工具，加息依然遥远。您怎么看鲍威尔这一表述？加息是否会提前发生？美联储官员预期加息提前，且次数增多，是否会推升美元，并导致美股大幅下跌？\n夏春：鲍威尔维持了一贯的鸽派态度，不过从过往历史来看，点阵图的确不是一个很好的预测工具。按照美联储从2020年疫情之后的点阵图来看，2023年之前都不会进行加息，换言之，加息要到2024年才开始，但是实际情况是美国经济的表现在2020年第三季度开始就比预期的要理想，因此市场普遍认为加息要早于美联储的预期。目前来看，2023年出现两次加息的可能性较大。\n美元走势与国债收益率走势的相关性较大，从基本面，估值以及一些技术性指标来看，美元在短期内走强和走弱的可能性都存在，特别是如果缩减QE的计划在8月宣布，会对美元带来短期支撑的效果。至于美股的走势，短期内与美债收益率和美元的关系并不是那么直接，相反与企业盈利表现以及市场的风险偏好关系更加明显一些。\n考虑到目前低利率环境，美联储正式开始缩减QE，以及开始加息时，对美股的负面影响应该都会比较短暂。美股走势更多会受到企业盈利和估值变化的影响。不过数次加息之后，叠加上缩表，美股也会迎来明显的调整，但这个出现的时间可能要到2024年了。\n腾讯财经：美联储政策声明中并未给出缩减QE的线索，同时彭博调查显示，很多经济学家预计美联储可能会在8月份全球央行年会上释放有关缩减QE的信号，您怎么看？您认为美联储会在今年开始缩减QE吗？\n夏春：由于近期的部分经济数据不够理想，市场认为美联储不会在6月会议上讨论缩减QE的计划。鲍威尔解释还需要等待更多的数据才会认真讨论缩减QE。在8月份全球央行会议上公布缩减QE的计划可能性是最高的，因为7月份公布的6月份经济数据，特别是通胀数据是检验目前美联储和市场观点的重要依据。参照过往缩减QE造成的市场冲击，美联储希望能够释放更加清晰，更符合市场预期的信息以降低对市场的冲击。\n考虑到公布缩减QE计划的时间，美联储在今年底开始正式缩减QE的可能性很小。2013年5月宣布缩减QE计划，实际执行开始于当年12月份。我们预计美联储最快也要到明年一季度才开始正式缩减购债。\n腾讯财经：美联储将超额准备金利率（IOER）从0.1%调整至0.15%，同时将隔夜逆回购利率由0%调整至0.05%，这一举措意味着什么？会对市场造成什么影响？\n夏春：这些主要是针对货币市场和回购市场的流动性需要进行的微调，5月也有调低的动作，对股票和债券市场的影响不大。\n腾讯财经：美债收益率近期不断下滑，一度跌破1.5%，为何会产生这一现象？您预计美债收益率会进一步攀升吗？今年会升至什么水平？\n夏春：核心原因在于近期公布的一些经济数据（消费，就业等）不及预期理想，二季度经济增长见顶的概率加大，市场对国债的需求上升，尤其是来自于海外的资金。另一方面，全球股市在短期内大涨之后的上行动力有所缓和，上市公司整体创下很好的业绩之后，在未来继续超越市场预期的可能性下降。\n美债收益率在下半年上涨的动力应该出现在美联储会议正式公布缩减购买债券的时间表的前后发生，预计十年前国债收益率下半年将上升接近2%，但超出的可能性不大。\n腾讯财经：自2020年3月来，美联储和美国政府双管齐下，同时推出大规模货币和财政刺激。当前，美国债务规模超过28万亿美元，加息如果提前到来是否会引发财政和债务危机？\n夏春：目前，美国债务占GDP的比重超过了130%，而其他几个主要发达经济体也已经接近这一百分比，历史上，这么高的国债比重会对经济产生不利的后果，考虑到目前难以采取违约，债务重组，贬值等方法解决，那么通过放任通胀来变相降低债务偿还是历史上常见的做法之一。\n在目前的利率水平下，美国国债偿还利息占GDP的比重处在一个和历史相比并不算高的水平，加息会推升分子利息，扩大这一比重，加大美元贬值的风险，引发债务危机，并且阻碍美国基建计划和社会项目获得国会的批准。\n除了这些考虑，美联储和财政部还希望通过容忍较高的通胀水平，来压低实际利率，降低居民和企业（主要是富人和大企业）的储蓄水平，增加投资需求，这样有助于提升经济增长，通过做大分母GDP，来解决目前的国债水平过高的难题。\n综合来看，美联储对通胀暂时性的判断有合理的一面，对通胀的容忍也有现实的需要。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5071,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169680804,"gmtCreate":1623832695008,"gmtModify":1703820813188,"author":{"id":"3578565274483399","authorId":"3578565274483399","name":"YodianLai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94ee7091222bfacde34d2a3cee83a9a6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578565274483399","idStr":"3578565274483399"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/169680804","repostId":"1183086785","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183086785","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623831348,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1183086785?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-16 16:15","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Angel Times closed up 131.79% on its first day of trading, with a turnover of 5.8 billion yuan, ranking first among Hong Kong stocks.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183086785","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月16日，时代天使今日首日上市，盘中最高涨183.24%报490港元，最终收涨131.79%报401港元，全天成交58.78亿港元，位居港股市场第一位，换手率8.96%，市值665亿港元。\n时代天使","content":"<p>On June 16,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06699\">Times Angel</a>On its first day of trading today, the stock rose as much as 183.24% to HK$490 before closing up 131.79% to HK$401. The total turnover for the day was HK$5.878 billion, ranking first in the Hong Kong stock market, with a turnover rate of 8.96% and a market capitalization of HK$66.5 billion.</p><p>Times Angel is a leading provider of invisible orthodontic solutions in China, with a market share of 41.3%, partnering with Align Technology, an international giant that has swept the globe.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVY\">Ellie</a>The competition between the Technology/Invisalign divisions has created a duopoly. Analysts point out that the market's optimism about Times Angel is mainly due to the fact that its competitor, ALGN Technology (ALGN.US), has seen its stock price soar over the past decade, making it a true bullish stock in the US stock market. As of the market close on June 15, Aili Technology's total market capitalization was US$47.5 billion (approximately HK$368.7 billion).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efb194c74df068f6a146d8c014517d48\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Angel Times closed up 131.79% on its first day of trading, with a turnover of 5.8 billion yuan, ranking first among Hong Kong stocks.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAngel Times closed up 131.79% on its first day of trading, with a turnover of 5.8 billion yuan, ranking first among Hong Kong stocks.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-16 16:15</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On June 16,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06699\">Times Angel</a>On its first day of trading today, the stock rose as much as 183.24% to HK$490 before closing up 131.79% to HK$401. The total turnover for the day was HK$5.878 billion, ranking first in the Hong Kong stock market, with a turnover rate of 8.96% and a market capitalization of HK$66.5 billion.</p><p>Times Angel is a leading provider of invisible orthodontic solutions in China, with a market share of 41.3%, partnering with Align Technology, an international giant that has swept the globe.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVY\">Ellie</a>The competition between the Technology/Invisalign divisions has created a duopoly. Analysts point out that the market's optimism about Times Angel is mainly due to the fact that its competitor, ALGN Technology (ALGN.US), has seen its stock price soar over the past decade, making it a true bullish stock in the US stock market. As of the market close on June 15, Aili Technology's total market capitalization was US$47.5 billion (approximately HK$368.7 billion).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efb194c74df068f6a146d8c014517d48\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{"06699":"时代天使","AVY":"艾利"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183086785","content_text":"6月16日，时代天使今日首日上市，盘中最高涨183.24%报490港元，最终收涨131.79%报401港元，全天成交58.78亿港元，位居港股市场第一位，换手率8.96%，市值665亿港元。\n时代天使是国内领先的隐形矫治解决方案提供商，市占率41.3%，与横扫全球的国际巨头Align Technology(艾利科技/隐适美)分庭抗衡，形成双寡头竞争格局。分析人士指出，市场之所以如此看好时代天使，主因竞争对手艾利科技(ALGN.US)在过去的10多年里股价暴涨，是美股中名副其实的大牛股。截至6月15日收盘，艾利科技总市值475亿美元（约合3687亿港元）。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"06699":0.9,"AVY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4326,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169617194,"gmtCreate":1623832663018,"gmtModify":1703820811541,"author":{"id":"3578565274483399","authorId":"3578565274483399","name":"YodianLai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94ee7091222bfacde34d2a3cee83a9a6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578565274483399","idStr":"3578565274483399"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/169617194","repostId":"1164341990","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1164341990","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623832141,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1164341990?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-16 16:29","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"ByteDance enters the medical aesthetics industry","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164341990","media":"字母榜","summary":"字母榜近日发现，字节跳动旗下的小荷医疗已上线医学美容服务“小荷医美”。对于小荷医美后续业务拓展情况，字节暂未回复。\n小荷医美类似于美团丽人/美发频道下的医学美容栏目，主要提供撮合交易，不过前者以项目而","content":"<p>Alphabet List recently discovered that ByteDance's subsidiary, Xiaohe Medical, has launched a medical aesthetics service called \"Xiaohe Medical Aesthetics\". ByteDance has not yet responded to questions about Xiaohe Medical Aesthetics' future business expansion.</p><p>Xiaohe Medical Aesthetics is similar to the medical aesthetics section under Meituan Beauty/Hairdressing channel, mainly providing transaction matching services, but the former is presented as a project rather than a merchant.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dcef44cd5c088af0a6cb49effc530c95\" tg-width=\"760\" tg-height=\"616\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Currently, Xiaohe Medical Aesthetics offers services such as Boshui Light Injection, Thermage, and Illuminated Skin Rejuvenation. It is only available in Beijing and Harbin, and there are few merchants to choose from. Its partner institutions in Beijing include Yuemei Haoyi, Shiliu Medical Aesthetics, Asian Games Village Meizhong Yihe, and Yimeier Jianxiang. In Harbin, Yimeier is the only partner institution.</b></p><p>According to the alphabet list, ByteDance recruited medical aesthetics interns at the end of last year, whose main responsibilities included introducing and entering medical aesthetics services into the database. In addition, the recruitment platform shows that ByteDance is currently recruiting a medical aesthetics operations manager to be responsible for content operations in the medical aesthetics field. The job description does not indicate which business department the position belongs to.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36bf1c1608ccc3a49f2276ea620893df\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"2218\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Medical aesthetic services are becoming a new growth magic weapon for transactional products. According to the \"China Medical Aesthetics Market Trend Insight Report\" previously released by Deloitte and Meituan, in the third quarter of 2020, Meituan's medical aesthetics consumer order volume increased by 98% year-on-year, the average order value increased by 15% year-on-year, and the total transaction volume increased by 127% year-on-year.</p><p>During the Double 11 shopping festival of the same year, Ele.me announced that during the first wave of sales, the number of medical aesthetics and medical consumption orders increased nearly sevenfold compared to the previous period, making it the most popular lifestyle service item with an average order value as high as 6,300 yuan. Among them, 30% of medical aesthetics orders came from late-night live streaming rooms.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dcb0f474f9e744f6aec63a5b4eb71ea\" tg-width=\"766\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Nowadays, Taobao livestreamers have also started selling medical aesthetic products in their live streams. During this year's 618 shopping festival, Taobao's top livestreamer, Xue Li, promoted the medical aesthetics festival. According to the alphabet list, a combination package priced at 27,999 yuan in the live stream (including items such as Thermage and fotona 4D pro) sold over 800 units, generating over 20 million yuan in sales. A combination package priced at 25,999 yuan sold over 200 units, generating over 5 million yuan in sales.</p><p>A recent report released by Guosheng Securities shows that China is the world's largest medical aesthetics market, and its medical aesthetics consumption scale is expected to double by 2025, increasing from 138.6 billion yuan in 2020 to 280.1 billion yuan in 2025, with a five-year CAGR of 15.11%. The market sizes for surgical, injectable, and optoelectronic products are 141.7 billion yuan, 99.3 billion yuan, and 39.1 billion yuan respectively. Based on urban women aged 19-49, user penetration rates have increased to 6.30%, 15.32%, and 20.25% respectively, corresponding to 11.92 million, 28.95 million, and 38.27 million consumers, with average order values of 11,892, 3,430, and 1,021 yuan respectively.</p><p>Clearly, ByteDance will not miss this track with high average order value, a vast market, and the potential to be fueled by traffic.</p><p>\"If ByteDance, with its traffic advantage, wants to find new areas for growth, it should look at industries with relatively large market sizes, such as healthcare, education, and real estate,\" an internet product professional once told Alphabet List. These three areas are the industries that ByteDance has rapidly entered in the past year or two, and in the middle of last year, ByteDance's progress in developing the big health industry also began to accelerate.</p><p>In May 2020, ByteDance acquired Baike Mingyi for 500 million yuan. ByteDance later responded that the acquisition of Baike Mingyi was mainly to build a more complete platform content ecosystem.</p><p>In October of the same year, ByteDance unified its medical brand into \"Xiaohe\". In 2019, ByteDance launched the medical product Green Pinecone, which was initially positioned as a \"medical search + serious illness community\". In this round of brand integration, the Green Pinecone APP was updated to Little Lotus. In addition, ByteDance also launched a product called \"Little Lotus Doctor\".</p><p>Little Lotus Renamed Initial Product Page</p><p>In the early days after the name change, Xiaohe mainly provided services such as \"Quickly Ask a Doctor\" and \"Check Medical Records\".<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/III\">Information services</a>The \"prescription drug purchase\" function has not yet been opened. At the beginning of this year, the encyclopedia of famous doctors appeared under the new brand name \"Little Lotus Medical Classic\".</p><p>In addition, at the end of last year, ByteDance opened an offline clinic called \"Pinecone Clinic,\" offering services covering gynecology, general practice, dermatology, traditional Chinese medicine, and health management.<b>Currently, Xiaohe Clinic is recruiting medical aesthetics doctors and medical aesthetics nurses.</b></p><p>Obviously, ByteDance's layout in medical care will not stop at the field of information services. The main revenue force of the big health business of Internet companies is e-commerce services.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00241\">Alibaba Health</a>In fiscal year 2021 (ended March 31, 2021), the company's revenue was RMB 15.52 billion, of which RMB 1.965 billion was from its traditional Chinese medicine e-commerce platform business and RMB 13.216 billion was from its self-operated pharmaceutical business.</p><p>At the beginning of its launch, Xiaohe Medical set up a \"prescription drug purchase\" page to be launched, and in version 3.6.0 in March this year, Xiaohe officially launched its online drug purchase service.</p><p><b>Xiaohe is shifting from providing information services to providing transaction services.</b></p><p>Besides online drug purchases, medical aesthetics is probably one of the fastest-growing areas in the medical field, and the average order value of medical aesthetics products is relatively high, which can obviously contribute a lot to GMV growth. Large Internet companies are all making moves here.</p><p>In 2016, Tmall Medical Aesthetics was officially launched, and Tmall and Alibaba Health merged to enter the medical aesthetics field. In mid-2019, Alibaba Health pointed out in an announcement that the consumer medical business has become another powerful engine for the group's next step of revenue and profit growth. In March of this year, Wang Yajun, general manager of Ele.me Consumer Healthcare, stated that nearly 60% of medical aesthetics merchants had already tried live-streaming e-commerce, and the sales volume of medical aesthetics live-streaming in the Sydney live-streaming room had exceeded 100 million yuan.</p><p>During last year's 618 shopping festival<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>It was previously announced that as of noon on June 18, the transaction volume of medical aesthetics increased by 510 times year-on-year, and the transaction volume of light medical aesthetics services increased by 236 times compared with the previous day. On the eve of this year's 618 shopping festival<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06618\">JD Health</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SY\">SoYoung</a>After reaching a cooperation agreement, the official flagship store of SOX Medical Aesthetics has joined JD.com, serving seventeen cities including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen.</p><p>Xiaohe's entry into the medical aesthetics industry is not only an important layout in ByteDance's medical field, but also a progress in its local life sector.</p><p>SoYoung has previously repeatedly emphasized that its business model is \"media + community + e-commerce\", that is, it attracts users to the platform through the content of the new media matrix. Community content is shared by users to help consumers choose medical institutions and solve decision-making problems. E-commerce appointments help consumers screen institutions, make appointments and negotiate prices online.</p><p><b>Obviously, the sales of medical aesthetic products are extremely compatible with platforms with content and community attributes. In the business systems of large companies, most of the medical aesthetics business belongs to the in-store business within the local life business. For example, Meituan's business was previously a sub-category of the original Beauty Business Department, but was upgraded to an independent business department at the end of 2018.</b></p><p>In addition, Alphabet List discovered that many of the medical aesthetic products previously sold in Sydney's live stream came from the store \"Ele.me Medical Aesthetics\", and clicking on the store details would redirect to \"Tmall Medical Aesthetics\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7af41e67f4bb60df07984683b9097e0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"2082\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Having mastered the flow valve, ByteDance naturally wouldn't miss out on this business. Judging from ByteDance's current actions, Xiaohe was the first to enter the medical aesthetics industry, not...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DYIN\">TikTok</a>Discounted group purchases in the local lifestyle business section. Currently, Douyin's local lifestyle group-buying section only offers two products: food and beverage and hotels and homestays, and does not yet sell medical aesthetic products.</p><p>However, the Douyin Eating, Drinking and Entertainment List has five channels: food, leisure and entertainment, accommodation, beauty, and travel. Currently, the beauty channel only has one sub-category: beauty and hairdressing. Some stores have already launched group-buying products, most of which are care-related items, and there are no medical aesthetic items such as surgery, injections, or optoelectronics.</p><p>Clearly, Douyin's strategy in the medical aesthetics sector is relatively cautious. At the end of 2018, Toutiao published medical advertisements without obtaining medical advertising review certification, which was illegal.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600085\">Tongrentang</a>Health food advertisements and illegal over-the-counter drug advertisements were fined 3 million yuan.</p><p>Judging from its current SKUs, the number of cooperating medical aesthetic institutions, and the richness of its city coverage, Xiaohe Medical Aesthetics is still in its early stages and lags far behind platforms such as Meituan, Tmall, and SoYoung. However, it is foreseeable that Douyin group-buying will continue to move closer to Dianping, and the key move to do so is to supplement product categories and enrich SKUs.</p>","source":"ZMB","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ByteDance enters the medical aesthetics industry</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nByteDance enters the medical aesthetics industry\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">字母榜</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-16 16:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Alphabet List recently discovered that ByteDance's subsidiary, Xiaohe Medical, has launched a medical aesthetics service called \"Xiaohe Medical Aesthetics\". ByteDance has not yet responded to questions about Xiaohe Medical Aesthetics' future business expansion.</p><p>Xiaohe Medical Aesthetics is similar to the medical aesthetics section under Meituan Beauty/Hairdressing channel, mainly providing transaction matching services, but the former is presented as a project rather than a merchant.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dcef44cd5c088af0a6cb49effc530c95\" tg-width=\"760\" tg-height=\"616\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Currently, Xiaohe Medical Aesthetics offers services such as Boshui Light Injection, Thermage, and Illuminated Skin Rejuvenation. It is only available in Beijing and Harbin, and there are few merchants to choose from. Its partner institutions in Beijing include Yuemei Haoyi, Shiliu Medical Aesthetics, Asian Games Village Meizhong Yihe, and Yimeier Jianxiang. In Harbin, Yimeier is the only partner institution.</b></p><p>According to the alphabet list, ByteDance recruited medical aesthetics interns at the end of last year, whose main responsibilities included introducing and entering medical aesthetics services into the database. In addition, the recruitment platform shows that ByteDance is currently recruiting a medical aesthetics operations manager to be responsible for content operations in the medical aesthetics field. The job description does not indicate which business department the position belongs to.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36bf1c1608ccc3a49f2276ea620893df\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"2218\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Medical aesthetic services are becoming a new growth magic weapon for transactional products. According to the \"China Medical Aesthetics Market Trend Insight Report\" previously released by Deloitte and Meituan, in the third quarter of 2020, Meituan's medical aesthetics consumer order volume increased by 98% year-on-year, the average order value increased by 15% year-on-year, and the total transaction volume increased by 127% year-on-year.</p><p>During the Double 11 shopping festival of the same year, Ele.me announced that during the first wave of sales, the number of medical aesthetics and medical consumption orders increased nearly sevenfold compared to the previous period, making it the most popular lifestyle service item with an average order value as high as 6,300 yuan. Among them, 30% of medical aesthetics orders came from late-night live streaming rooms.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dcb0f474f9e744f6aec63a5b4eb71ea\" tg-width=\"766\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Nowadays, Taobao livestreamers have also started selling medical aesthetic products in their live streams. During this year's 618 shopping festival, Taobao's top livestreamer, Xue Li, promoted the medical aesthetics festival. According to the alphabet list, a combination package priced at 27,999 yuan in the live stream (including items such as Thermage and fotona 4D pro) sold over 800 units, generating over 20 million yuan in sales. A combination package priced at 25,999 yuan sold over 200 units, generating over 5 million yuan in sales.</p><p>A recent report released by Guosheng Securities shows that China is the world's largest medical aesthetics market, and its medical aesthetics consumption scale is expected to double by 2025, increasing from 138.6 billion yuan in 2020 to 280.1 billion yuan in 2025, with a five-year CAGR of 15.11%. The market sizes for surgical, injectable, and optoelectronic products are 141.7 billion yuan, 99.3 billion yuan, and 39.1 billion yuan respectively. Based on urban women aged 19-49, user penetration rates have increased to 6.30%, 15.32%, and 20.25% respectively, corresponding to 11.92 million, 28.95 million, and 38.27 million consumers, with average order values of 11,892, 3,430, and 1,021 yuan respectively.</p><p>Clearly, ByteDance will not miss this track with high average order value, a vast market, and the potential to be fueled by traffic.</p><p>\"If ByteDance, with its traffic advantage, wants to find new areas for growth, it should look at industries with relatively large market sizes, such as healthcare, education, and real estate,\" an internet product professional once told Alphabet List. These three areas are the industries that ByteDance has rapidly entered in the past year or two, and in the middle of last year, ByteDance's progress in developing the big health industry also began to accelerate.</p><p>In May 2020, ByteDance acquired Baike Mingyi for 500 million yuan. ByteDance later responded that the acquisition of Baike Mingyi was mainly to build a more complete platform content ecosystem.</p><p>In October of the same year, ByteDance unified its medical brand into \"Xiaohe\". In 2019, ByteDance launched the medical product Green Pinecone, which was initially positioned as a \"medical search + serious illness community\". In this round of brand integration, the Green Pinecone APP was updated to Little Lotus. In addition, ByteDance also launched a product called \"Little Lotus Doctor\".</p><p>Little Lotus Renamed Initial Product Page</p><p>In the early days after the name change, Xiaohe mainly provided services such as \"Quickly Ask a Doctor\" and \"Check Medical Records\".<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/III\">Information services</a>The \"prescription drug purchase\" function has not yet been opened. At the beginning of this year, the encyclopedia of famous doctors appeared under the new brand name \"Little Lotus Medical Classic\".</p><p>In addition, at the end of last year, ByteDance opened an offline clinic called \"Pinecone Clinic,\" offering services covering gynecology, general practice, dermatology, traditional Chinese medicine, and health management.<b>Currently, Xiaohe Clinic is recruiting medical aesthetics doctors and medical aesthetics nurses.</b></p><p>Obviously, ByteDance's layout in medical care will not stop at the field of information services. The main revenue force of the big health business of Internet companies is e-commerce services.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00241\">Alibaba Health</a>In fiscal year 2021 (ended March 31, 2021), the company's revenue was RMB 15.52 billion, of which RMB 1.965 billion was from its traditional Chinese medicine e-commerce platform business and RMB 13.216 billion was from its self-operated pharmaceutical business.</p><p>At the beginning of its launch, Xiaohe Medical set up a \"prescription drug purchase\" page to be launched, and in version 3.6.0 in March this year, Xiaohe officially launched its online drug purchase service.</p><p><b>Xiaohe is shifting from providing information services to providing transaction services.</b></p><p>Besides online drug purchases, medical aesthetics is probably one of the fastest-growing areas in the medical field, and the average order value of medical aesthetics products is relatively high, which can obviously contribute a lot to GMV growth. Large Internet companies are all making moves here.</p><p>In 2016, Tmall Medical Aesthetics was officially launched, and Tmall and Alibaba Health merged to enter the medical aesthetics field. In mid-2019, Alibaba Health pointed out in an announcement that the consumer medical business has become another powerful engine for the group's next step of revenue and profit growth. In March of this year, Wang Yajun, general manager of Ele.me Consumer Healthcare, stated that nearly 60% of medical aesthetics merchants had already tried live-streaming e-commerce, and the sales volume of medical aesthetics live-streaming in the Sydney live-streaming room had exceeded 100 million yuan.</p><p>During last year's 618 shopping festival<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>It was previously announced that as of noon on June 18, the transaction volume of medical aesthetics increased by 510 times year-on-year, and the transaction volume of light medical aesthetics services increased by 236 times compared with the previous day. On the eve of this year's 618 shopping festival<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06618\">JD Health</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SY\">SoYoung</a>After reaching a cooperation agreement, the official flagship store of SOX Medical Aesthetics has joined JD.com, serving seventeen cities including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen.</p><p>Xiaohe's entry into the medical aesthetics industry is not only an important layout in ByteDance's medical field, but also a progress in its local life sector.</p><p>SoYoung has previously repeatedly emphasized that its business model is \"media + community + e-commerce\", that is, it attracts users to the platform through the content of the new media matrix. Community content is shared by users to help consumers choose medical institutions and solve decision-making problems. E-commerce appointments help consumers screen institutions, make appointments and negotiate prices online.</p><p><b>Obviously, the sales of medical aesthetic products are extremely compatible with platforms with content and community attributes. In the business systems of large companies, most of the medical aesthetics business belongs to the in-store business within the local life business. For example, Meituan's business was previously a sub-category of the original Beauty Business Department, but was upgraded to an independent business department at the end of 2018.</b></p><p>In addition, Alphabet List discovered that many of the medical aesthetic products previously sold in Sydney's live stream came from the store \"Ele.me Medical Aesthetics\", and clicking on the store details would redirect to \"Tmall Medical Aesthetics\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7af41e67f4bb60df07984683b9097e0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"2082\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Having mastered the flow valve, ByteDance naturally wouldn't miss out on this business. Judging from ByteDance's current actions, Xiaohe was the first to enter the medical aesthetics industry, not...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DYIN\">TikTok</a>Discounted group purchases in the local lifestyle business section. Currently, Douyin's local lifestyle group-buying section only offers two products: food and beverage and hotels and homestays, and does not yet sell medical aesthetic products.</p><p>However, the Douyin Eating, Drinking and Entertainment List has five channels: food, leisure and entertainment, accommodation, beauty, and travel. Currently, the beauty channel only has one sub-category: beauty and hairdressing. Some stores have already launched group-buying products, most of which are care-related items, and there are no medical aesthetic items such as surgery, injections, or optoelectronics.</p><p>Clearly, Douyin's strategy in the medical aesthetics sector is relatively cautious. At the end of 2018, Toutiao published medical advertisements without obtaining medical advertising review certification, which was illegal.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600085\">Tongrentang</a>Health food advertisements and illegal over-the-counter drug advertisements were fined 3 million yuan.</p><p>Judging from its current SKUs, the number of cooperating medical aesthetic institutions, and the richness of its city coverage, Xiaohe Medical Aesthetics is still in its early stages and lags far behind platforms such as Meituan, Tmall, and SoYoung. However, it is foreseeable that Douyin group-buying will continue to move closer to Dianping, and the key move to do so is to supplement product categories and enrich SKUs.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/L1PhD1NBUFEKkw5t4UgD7w\">字母榜</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57922dcc5f7a43f1fddaf18d1a519025","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/L1PhD1NBUFEKkw5t4UgD7w","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164341990","content_text":"字母榜近日发现，字节跳动旗下的小荷医疗已上线医学美容服务“小荷医美”。对于小荷医美后续业务拓展情况，字节暂未回复。\n小荷医美类似于美团丽人/美发频道下的医学美容栏目，主要提供撮合交易，不过前者以项目而非商家的形式展示。\n\n现阶段，小荷医美提供博水光针、热玛吉、光子嫩肤等服务项目，目前仅在北京、哈尔滨上线，可供选择的商家较少，在北京的合作机构包括悦美好医、石榴医美、亚运村美中宜和、伊美尔健翔，在哈尔滨的合作机构仅有伊美尔一家。\n字母榜查询到，在去年年底，字节跳动就曾招聘医美业务实习生，主要职责就包括负责医美服务的引入和入库。另外，招聘平台显示，近期字节跳动正招聘医美运营经理，负责医美方向内容运营工作，职位介绍未显示该职位归属于哪一业务部门。\n\n医美服务正成为交易型产品的新增长法宝。此前德勤联合美团发布的《中国医美市场趋势洞察报告》显示，2020年第三季度，美团医美消费订单量同比增加98%，客单价同比增加15%，交易总额同比增加127%。\n同年双11期间，饿了么则公布，在第一波售卖期，医美医疗消费订单量环比增长近7倍，为最受欢迎的生活服务项目，平均客单价高达6300元，其中有30%的医美订单来自深夜直播间。\n如今，淘宝主播们也开始在直播间卖医美产品。今年618期间，淘宝top主播雪梨就曾推医美节。字母榜查询到，一款在直播间售价27999元的组合套餐（含热玛吉、fotona 4D pro等项目）销售量超800件，销售额超2000万元；一款售价为25999元的组合套餐的销量也超200件，销售额超500万元。\n国盛证券近日发布报告显示，中国为全球最大医美市场，预计2025年医美消费规模实现翻倍增长，市场规模从2020年的1386亿元增至2025年的2801亿元，五年CAGR 15.11%，手术类/注射类/光电类市场规模分别为1417/993/391亿元，以19-49岁城镇女性为基数，用户渗透率分别提升至6.30%/15.32%/20.25%，对应消费人数1192/2895/3827万人，客单价分别为11892/3430/1021元。\n显然，字节不会错过这一客单价高、市场广阔，而又可用流量浇灌的赛道。\n“拥有流量优势的字节要找到新领域获得增长，那么看市场规模比较大的行业，那就是医疗、教育、房产。”一位互联网产品人士曾向字母榜表示。而这三个领域正是字节近一两年快速切入的行业，在去年年中，字节布局大健康的进度也开始提速。\n2020年5月，字节跳动以5亿元全资收购百科名医，字节后来曾回应，收购百科名医主要是为建设更完整的平台内容生态。\n同年10月，字节将旗下医疗品牌统一为“小荷”。2019年，字节曾推出医疗产品绿松果，初期定位为“医疗搜索+重病社区”，在这一轮品牌整合中，绿松果APP更新为小荷，此外，字节还上线了一款名为“小荷医生”的产品。\n小荷更名初期产品页面\n更名后初期，小荷主要提供“快速问医生”、“查医典”等信息服务，“处方购药”功能尚未开放。今年年初，百科名医已经以“小荷医典”的新品牌名出现。\n另外，去年年底，字节已开设了一家名为“松果诊所”的线下诊疗机构，服务涵盖妇科、全科、皮肤科、中医、健康管理等。目前，小荷门诊正在招聘医疗美容医生和医美护士。\n显然，字节对医疗的布局不会只停留在信息服务领域。互联网公司大健康业务的营收主力军正是电商服务，阿里健康2021财年（截止2021年3月31日）收入155.2亿元，其中医药电商平台业务收入为19.65亿元，医药自营业务的收入为132.16亿元。\n小荷医疗上线初期便设置了“处方购药”待上线的页面，而在今年3月的3.6.0版本中，小荷正式上线在线购药服务。\n小荷正从提供信息服务走向提供交易服务。\n除了在线购药，医美大概是医疗领域增长较快的领域之一，且医美产品客单价较高，显然能对GMV增长助益不少，互联网大公司无不在此落子。\n2016年，天猫医美正式启动，天猫与阿里健康合并进驻医美领域，2019年年中，阿里健康在公告中指出，消费医疗业务已成为集团下一步收入和利润增长的又一个强劲引擎。今年3月，饿了么消费医疗总经理王亚军曾曾表示，已经有近60%的医美商家尝试直播带货，雪梨直播间的医美直播成交额曾破1亿。\n去年618期间，京东曾公布6月18日中午12点，医美成交额同比增长510倍，轻医美服务成交额环比前一天增长236倍。今年618前夕，京东健康和新氧达成合作，新氧医美官方旗舰店入驻京东，服务范围包括北上广深等十七座城市。\n小荷进军医美赛道不仅是字节医疗领域的重要布局，同时也是其本地生活领域的一个进展。\n新氧此前就曾反复强调其商业模式为“媒体+社区+电商”，即通过新媒体矩阵的内容将用户吸引到平台上，社区内容通过用户分享，帮助消费者挑选医疗机构、解决决策问题，电商预约帮助消费者筛选机构、预约及在线议价。\n显然，医美产品销售与拥有内容、社区属性的平台极为契合。在大公司的业务体系中，医美业务大多就归属于本地生活业务中的到店业务，比如美团业务此前就为原丽人业务部的细分品类，在2018年年底升级为独立业务部。\n另外，字母榜发现，雪梨直播间此前销售的医美产品中不少来自店铺“饿了么医美医疗”，点击店铺详情则会跳转至“天猫医美”。\n\n掌握了流量阀门的字节自然不会错过这门生意。而从字节如今的动作来看，其最先闯入医美赛道的为小荷，而非抖音本地生活业务版块的优惠团购。目前，抖音本地生活业务板块的优惠团购仅提供美食餐饮和酒店民宿两项产品，尚未销售医美产品。\n不过抖音吃喝玩乐榜设有美食、休闲娱乐、住宿、丽人、游玩五个频道，目前丽人频道中仅有美容美发一个子类目，其中部分店铺已上线了团购产品，大多为护理类项目，无手术类、注射类、光电类等医美项目。\n显然，抖音在医美赛道的布局是相对谨慎的。2018年年底，今日头条曾在未取得医疗广告审查证明的情况下发布医疗广告，违法发布同仁堂保健食品广告以及非处方药非法广告，被处以罚款300万元。\n从目前的SKU、合作的医美机构数量、覆盖城市的丰富度来看，小荷医美尚处于起步阶段，与美团、天猫、新氧等平台相比尚有不少差距。但可以想见，抖音团购会继续向大众点评靠拢，而靠拢的关键动作就是补足品类，丰富SKU。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4196,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169614823,"gmtCreate":1623832624562,"gmtModify":1703820810550,"author":{"id":"3578565274483399","authorId":"3578565274483399","name":"YodianLai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94ee7091222bfacde34d2a3cee83a9a6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578565274483399","idStr":"3578565274483399"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/169614823","repostId":"1152250109","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152250109","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623830681,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1152250109?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-16 16:04","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Roblox shares fell more than 8% in pre-market trading after May revenue declined 11% month-over-month.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152250109","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月16日，美国在线游戏平台Roblox盘前跌超8%，此前公布5月营收环比下滑11%，日活用户为4300万，环比下滑1%。\n\n该公司预测，五月份的营收（指游戏玩家的签约营收）在2.16亿美元到2.19","content":"<p>On June 16, American online gaming platforms<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RBLX\">Roblox</a>The stock fell more than 8% in pre-market trading after previously reporting an 11% month-on-month decline in May revenue and 43 million daily active users, a 1% month-on-month decrease.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74304876f81e45244469ccbd840d93bf\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The company forecasts May revenue (referring to signed-up revenue from gamers) to be between $216 million and $219 million. This level is 11% lower than the median forecast in April. Revenue forecast for April is between $242 million and $245 million. In addition to total revenue, the average signed revenue per active user also declined month-on-month in May.</p><p>Matthew Thornton, an analyst at Truist Securities, said Roblox's revenue was weaker than expected, but the company also pointed out that operating results tend to decline month-on-month in May before rising again in June.</p><p>Data shows that the number of daily active users on the Roblox platform decreased by 1% in May compared to the previous month. There were 43 million daily active users in May, compared to 43.3 million in April. However, the level of 43 million people is a 28% increase compared to the same period last year.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Roblox shares fell more than 8% in pre-market trading after May revenue declined 11% month-over-month.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRoblox shares fell more than 8% in pre-market trading after May revenue declined 11% month-over-month.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-16 16:04</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On June 16, American online gaming platforms<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RBLX\">Roblox</a>The stock fell more than 8% in pre-market trading after previously reporting an 11% month-on-month decline in May revenue and 43 million daily active users, a 1% month-on-month decrease.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74304876f81e45244469ccbd840d93bf\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The company forecasts May revenue (referring to signed-up revenue from gamers) to be between $216 million and $219 million. This level is 11% lower than the median forecast in April. Revenue forecast for April is between $242 million and $245 million. In addition to total revenue, the average signed revenue per active user also declined month-on-month in May.</p><p>Matthew Thornton, an analyst at Truist Securities, said Roblox's revenue was weaker than expected, but the company also pointed out that operating results tend to decline month-on-month in May before rising again in June.</p><p>Data shows that the number of daily active users on the Roblox platform decreased by 1% in May compared to the previous month. There were 43 million daily active users in May, compared to 43.3 million in April. However, the level of 43 million people is a 28% increase compared to the same period last year.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dba0978d4c89448fe016105a561df6a9","relate_stocks":{"RBLX":"Roblox Corporation"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152250109","content_text":"6月16日，美国在线游戏平台Roblox盘前跌超8%，此前公布5月营收环比下滑11%，日活用户为4300万，环比下滑1%。\n\n该公司预测，五月份的营收（指游戏玩家的签约营收）在2.16亿美元到2.19亿美元之间。这一水平比四月的中位数预测值下降了11%。四月份预测营收为2.42亿美元到2.45亿美元。除了总收入之外，五月份平均每位活跃用户的签约收入也环比下滑。\n美国“Truist证券公司”分析师马修·索尔顿（Matthew Thornton）表示，Roblox公司的营收要比预期疲软，不过该公司也指出，五月份的经营业绩往往会出现环比下滑，而在六月份又会上升。\n数据显示，五月Roblox平台的日活跃用户数量环比减少了1%。五月份日活跃用户为4300万人，而四月份则是4330万人。不过4300万人的水平和去年同期相比则增加了28%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RBLX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4763,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169614332,"gmtCreate":1623832616026,"gmtModify":1703820810062,"author":{"id":"3578565274483399","authorId":"3578565274483399","name":"YodianLai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94ee7091222bfacde34d2a3cee83a9a6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578565274483399","idStr":"3578565274483399"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/169614332","repostId":"1150828904","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1150828904","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623831139,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1150828904?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-16 16:12","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Oracle shares fell more than 4% in pre-market trading after cloud capital spending doubled in fiscal year 2022.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150828904","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月16日，甲骨文盘前跌超4%，公司将使2022财年的云资本支出翻倍至近40亿美元。\n\n甲骨文在本周二表示，因公司持续加大对云计算业务的投资，以对抗亚马逊和微软等竞争对手，导致当前财季的利润不及预期。","content":"<p>On June 16,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">Oracle bone script</a>The stock fell more than 4% in pre-market trading as the company plans to double its cloud capital spending to nearly $4 billion in fiscal year 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/826192cd85b9aa0b3af0fa7d88137c21\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Oracle announced on Tuesday that it is continuing to increase its investment in cloud computing to combat...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Competitors, etc., have led to lower-than-expected profits in the current fiscal quarter.</p><p>Oracle plans to continue investing in its cloud computing business in 2022, doubling its spending to $4 billion. The company has been building more data centers to help businesses expand their operations, enhance the output of cloud services, and win such...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>Well-known clients, etc.</p><p>However, investors and analysts still believe that compared to the two giants Microsoft and Amazon, Oracle's cloud computing business can only be considered a niche market. At the same time, analysts also pointed out that \"one of Oracle's biggest problems is that despite its focus on cloud solutions, the company's revenue growth is extremely limited.\"</p><p>Oracle released its fourth fiscal quarter 2021 report early this morning, showing total revenue of $11.227 billion, up 8% year-over-year, and net profit of $4.033 billion, up 29% year-over-year.</p><p>However, due to increased investment in cloud computing, Oracle forecasts earnings per share of 94 to 98 cents for the current fiscal quarter, lower than the expected $1.03.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Oracle shares fell more than 4% in pre-market trading after cloud capital spending doubled in fiscal year 2022.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOracle shares fell more than 4% in pre-market trading after cloud capital spending doubled in fiscal year 2022.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-16 16:12</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On June 16,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">Oracle bone script</a>The stock fell more than 4% in pre-market trading as the company plans to double its cloud capital spending to nearly $4 billion in fiscal year 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/826192cd85b9aa0b3af0fa7d88137c21\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Oracle announced on Tuesday that it is continuing to increase its investment in cloud computing to combat...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Competitors, etc., have led to lower-than-expected profits in the current fiscal quarter.</p><p>Oracle plans to continue investing in its cloud computing business in 2022, doubling its spending to $4 billion. The company has been building more data centers to help businesses expand their operations, enhance the output of cloud services, and win such...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>Well-known clients, etc.</p><p>However, investors and analysts still believe that compared to the two giants Microsoft and Amazon, Oracle's cloud computing business can only be considered a niche market. At the same time, analysts also pointed out that \"one of Oracle's biggest problems is that despite its focus on cloud solutions, the company's revenue growth is extremely limited.\"</p><p>Oracle released its fourth fiscal quarter 2021 report early this morning, showing total revenue of $11.227 billion, up 8% year-over-year, and net profit of $4.033 billion, up 29% year-over-year.</p><p>However, due to increased investment in cloud computing, Oracle forecasts earnings per share of 94 to 98 cents for the current fiscal quarter, lower than the expected $1.03.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/753c9aba3202037bc97463c545d5d015","relate_stocks":{"ORCL":"甲骨文"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150828904","content_text":"6月16日，甲骨文盘前跌超4%，公司将使2022财年的云资本支出翻倍至近40亿美元。\n\n甲骨文在本周二表示，因公司持续加大对云计算业务的投资，以对抗亚马逊和微软等竞争对手，导致当前财季的利润不及预期。\n甲骨文计划在 2022 年继续加大云计算业务的投资，支出将增加一倍，达到 40 亿美元。该公司一直在建立更多的数据中心，以助力企业扩大业务，增强云服务的产出，并赢得诸如 Zoom 等知名客户。\n不过，投资者和分析师仍认为，相比于微软和亚马逊这两家巨头，甲骨文的云计算业务只能算是小众市场。同时，分析师还指出，“甲骨文最大的问题之一是，尽管其专注于云解决方案，但公司的收入增长却极其有限。”\n甲骨文在今日凌晨发布了 2021 财年第四财季报，其第四财季总营收为 112.27 亿美元，同比增长 8%，净利润为 40.33 亿美元，同比增长 29%。\n不过由于对云计算投资的增加，甲骨文预测当前第一财季每股收益为 94 美分至 98 美分，低于预期的 1.03 美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ORCL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4289,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}