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TIDARAT
TIDARAT
·
2021-09-23
Good
Why on earth does Amazon block Chinese sellers?
因为封号冻资事件，亚马逊今年一直被热搜。 所以导致整个跨境电商笼罩的信息一直是今天这个大卖关了，明天那个大卖裁员了。特别是在一些自媒体流量吞噬下，行业似乎就没有一些积极事件发生。 这里面比较关键的信息
Why on earth does Amazon block Chinese sellers?
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TIDARAT
TIDARAT
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2021-09-21
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TIDARAT
TIDARAT
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2021-09-10
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TIDARAT
TIDARAT
·
2021-09-09
Good
When was "Nvidia" born in China?
这一事件引发了人们对虚拟现实、元宇宙、AI换脸等技术和概念的激烈讨论，同时也让“英伟达”这家美国芯片霸主从半导体行业“出圈”，走入了大众视野。另外，作为全球芯片销量大国，中国却没有出现一家“英伟达”这样的芯片巨头，大市场并没有产生与之匹配的大公司。
When was "Nvidia" born in China?
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TIDARAT
TIDARAT
·
2021-09-09
Omg
Multiple indicators in the United States alarm!
美国人曾憧憬，这个夏天经济能回归常态，上班族回到办公室，孩子们重返校园，街角的咖啡店再次开业。但一切事与愿违，随着疫情复燃，复苏在8月踩下了急刹车。 上周五，让人大跌眼镜的非农就业数据带来了最直接的报
Multiple indicators in the United States alarm!
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TIDARAT
TIDARAT
·
2021-08-24
Good
Wall Street optimists: The peak of the U.S. epidemic is approaching, and it is an opportunity to restart trading at the bottom
在摩根士丹利管理约75亿美元资产的Andrew Slimmon认为，新一波疫情将在第四季度得到有效控制，投资者应该在8月就开始买入此前跌幅较大的股票，而不是等到10月。 美国乐观派认为，随着美国最初
Wall Street optimists: The peak of the U.S. epidemic is approaching, and it is an opportunity to restart trading at the bottom
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TIDARAT
TIDARAT
·
2021-08-23
Hi
The global liquidity crisis is unfolding, and a currency war is coming?
《货币战争》作者里卡兹表示，要准确预测到全球流动性危机何时总爆发，以及其程度到底有多严重，对谁而言都是不可能完成的任务。不过，谁都必须承认的是，前述种种趋势自3月以来都愈演愈烈，意味着压力正在迅速堆积
The global liquidity crisis is unfolding, and a currency war is coming?
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TIDARAT
TIDARAT
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2021-08-23
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TIDARAT
TIDARAT
·
2021-08-21
555
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TIDARAT
TIDARAT
·
2021-08-20
Omg
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10:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Why on earth does Amazon block Chinese sellers?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2169565516","media":"36氪","summary":"因为封号冻资事件，亚马逊今年一直被热搜。\n所以导致整个跨境电商笼罩的信息一直是今天这个大卖关了，明天那个大卖裁员了。特别是在一些自媒体流量吞噬下，行业似乎就没有一些积极事件发生。\n这里面比较关键的信息","content":"<p>Because of the account banning and capital freezing incident,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>It has been hot searched this year.</p><p>Therefore, the information that has led to the whole cross-border e-commerce has always been that today's big sale is closed, and tomorrow's big sale will lay off employees. Especially under the swallowing up of some We Media traffic, there seems to be no positive events in the industry.</p><p>The key information asymmetry here is how many Chinese stores has Amazon closed? At the beginning, the most mainstream rumor was that there were 50,000. Since Amazon officials kept quiet, this number gradually acquiesced into a fact.</p><p>Even at the event that Amazon held last Friday when the world's first comprehensive seller training center settled in Hangzhou, it kept its mouth shut about the number of store closures, and did not plan to disclose it to the public, hoping that the cold treatment would pass.</p><p>The invited media will definitely not miss this rare opportunity, so they turned a question-and-answer session of the settlement event into a press conference of the store closure tide. So much so that Cindy Tai, Amazon's global vice president and CEO of Amazon's global store opening Asia-Pacific region, said frankly, \"Today's release was originally aimed at the training center settling in Hangzhou, but I didn't expect so many media to pay attention to the blocking of the account, so we made the first response together.\"</p><p>According to her disclosure, in the past five months, Amazon has closed the brand sales authority of about 600 Chinese sellers, involving about 3,000 brands, including some big sellers. \"These sellers have repeatedly, repeatedly and seriously abused comments, as well as many other violations. In the past period of time, Amazon has given many warnings to these sellers, and they have many opportunities to appeal, and even restored some deactivated accounts. However, these sellers continue to violate the rules, so this time they decided to terminate the cooperative relationship with these sellers.\"</p><p>In translation, the blocked seller's violation of regulations was serious, and Amazon gave him many opportunities and still refused to change, so it was forced to take the last step.</p><p>\"Amazon only released the data for the first five months, but the data for June, July and August were not disclosed. Many stores were also affected in these three months. So the final figure must be much larger than this.\" A senior practitioner told<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRKR\">36 Krypton</a>。</p><p>For sellers who rely heavily on Amazon, the loss is really not small. For example, once<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01668\">China South City</a>There is a tree among the four, 340 shops have been closed, and 130 million yuan of funds have been frozen. It directly led to half of employees leaving their jobs, half of their income, and a net loss of over 700 million yuan; Another big seller, Tongtuo Technology, was banned from selling and closed 54 stores, with frozen funds of 41.43 million yuan.</p><p>So, why is Amazon's store closure so strong this time? What are the things behind it that make us really reflect on?</p><p>Advances in Algorithms</p><p>In fact, everyone in the industry knows an unspoken rule. That is, Amazon has two account sweeps every year, once on Prime Day around July. Amazon usually closes some accounts 2 months in advance for its own large-scale promotion, that is, from the end of April to the beginning of May; Another time is two months before Christmas, that is, mid-October or early November.</p><p>Because of seeing this huge loophole, many sellers have their own countermeasures. For example, a brand authorizes 50 stores, and blocking a few has no impact at all. \"In fact, as long as the shops closed don't exceed a certain percentage, even the boss doesn't need to know about it.\" A seller told 36Kr.</p><p>After last year's big explosion in the industry, all sellers are more optimistic this year, and they don't see the real risks behind this incident at all. In fact, as early as 3 years ago, Amazon was using algorithms<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>In detecting whether commodity reviews are true or false. In the past, many self-operated Listing (product pages) have been blocked. For example, the Listing of a seller in Shenzhen has been reduced from 17,000 to 1,000, and the circle of friends is also a wail. Fortunately, later, because the error was too serious, Amazon did not continue to shut down on a large scale.</p><p>But the technology has been improving until this year it began to mature a lot. In addition, Amazon has changed the rules, no longer judging according to the logic of the store, but according to the logic of the brand dimension. As long as the algorithm identifies the problematic brand and exceeds a certain proportion, all its stores will be closed. That's why a large number of shop groups have been blocked.</p><p>36Kr also noticed that Amazon's new CEO Andy Jassy (Andy Jassy) was previously the CEO of Amazon Cloud Computing, not the head of e-commerce. This also proves that Amazon, as a data-driven company, pays more attention to the protection of the authenticity of platform data.</p><p>\"I believe that after this incident, many sellers will start to adopt the white hat game. And Amazon also encourages on-site invitation reviews and invites users to evaluate through on-site letters. If the product and experience are not good, it will definitely be a bad review invited back. So this matter is very good for the whole ecology. If bad money keeps driving out good money, good money can't be done.\" said the above seller.</p><p>Vendor Logic</p><p>In addition to the continuous iteration of the algorithm, Amazon's definition of sellers is also different from that of domestic Tmall Taobao. The difference is that Amazon regards all sellers on the platform as suppliers, and itself is equivalent to a retailer.</p><p>In other words, all digital assets of the seller on Amazon belong to Amazon. Even if you are<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>, yes<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NKE\">Nike</a>, are all suppliers of Amazon.</p><p>\"It can be understood that Tmall is similar to a shopping mall, and Amazon is a department store. So this laid the groundwork for some punishment mechanisms of Amazon. If Tmall sellers violate the rules, will the platform move your goods and funds? Amazon talks more about sales scale, and Tmall talks about GMV.\" Zhou Jun, vice president of sales of Zhiyun Tiangong, told 36Kr.</p><p>It's different for Amazon. Once the customer's payment is received, it is responsible for the user. As long as it is found that the seller may cause harm to the customer, the funds will be frozen first to cope with whether the subsequent liability will be jointly and severally liable for the lawsuit.</p><p>This has also been confirmed by Cindy Tai. Amazon's fund freezing period is 90 days, which is mainly used to bear the refund and return compensation fees of the seller's past customers, as well as other unpaid fees. After 90 days, if there is no violation, you can apply for retrieval.</p><p>Therefore, opening a store on Amazon is actually not selling goods yourself, but the seller supplies goods to the platform, and the platform helps sell goods. Amazon is not an administrative or judicial institution and has no power to freeze funds and goods. But because of Amazon's supplier logic, as long as it violates the supplier rules, it has to be kicked out of the list.</p><p>\"In terms of values, brushing bills is a serious act of lying and fraud, and we all hate it. But we can't blindly stigmatize Chinese sellers. Everyone in the industry is working day and night. What Amazon has done badly is that there is at least a hearing to give sellers a self-identification link. For sellers, the legitimate rights and interests to be fought for must be fought for. If this time passes silently, the future is probably a nightmare. \" Zhou Jun said.</p><p>In terms of the complaint process, Cindy Tai, global vice president of Amazon and executive president of Amazon Global Store Open Asia Pacific, said that if a seller's account is deactivated due to violations, Amazon will provide sellers with opportunities to complain; As long as the seller proves that Amazon's judgment was wrong, or that the violation was only temporary or unintentional, and provides a plan on how to avoid another violation, these accounts will resume normal operation.</p><p>However, according to 36 Krypton's knowledge from many sellers, the probability of successful appeal from Amazon is almost zero. At the same time, it is not very accurate to grasp the diverse changes of Amazon's rules. The main problem is that email communication is very inefficient.</p><p>Where's the way out?</p><p>For the entire cross-border e-commerce industry, it is still in a very early stage, and it is not even an industry. 36 Krypton found from a number of investment institutions visited that investors' optimistic judgment on the industry has not been affected in any way. What I have been looking for is which companies can go through the cycle and have the consciousness and ability to get out of a new brand.</p><p>It is difficult to build a brand. What is needed is the company's comprehensive capabilities on user needs, marketing methods, supply chain influence, etc., but it is precisely because of the high threshold that it is even scarcer. Especially<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300866\">Anker Innovation</a>The success of Shein and Shein has made all investors very excited and look forward to finding the next such investment target.</p><p>On the way out in the future, the first thing the industry needs to reconstruct is consciousness. In the past, the distribution path has been a dead end, and the sooner the transformation opportunities will be. A big seller in the industry lost a lot of first-mover dividends because it was two years late to transform its brand. When I chased back, I found that the probability of success was very small. This is also the dividend path dependence left in the early stages of the industry. Because it was easier to make quick money in the past, people are reluctant to take a difficult and correct path with accumulation.</p><p>Then, find a subdivided vertical category for deep cultivation. If it was a rough operation before, it must be refined now. Moreover, the threshold for category requirements has become higher. Why didn't the previous simple and rude mode work? It is because consumers are awakening and have higher requirements for product quality and services. Third parties like Amazon are gradually changing their strategies to encourage brands to be more determined. Under such an environment, without the ability to refine, there may be no profit at all in the future.</p><p>Secondly, introduce some high-quality technical talents. The epidemic is the beginning of cross-border e-commerce going out of the circle, and the title banning is accelerating. The direct impact is that more entrepreneurs enter across borders. For industries that seem to have no threshold, in fact, the threshold is not low, especially in the practical stage. Maybe part of the pure business logic can still be passed through until now, but the advantage of building competitive barriers requires more high-quality talents to join. Especially on the technical side, as far as industry practitioners are concerned, there is still a lot of room for improvement.</p><p>Finally, be good at using capital power. All along, because cross-border e-commerce is easy to make money, there is even no shortage of cash flow. Therefore, the desire for capital is relatively average, but if you sort out Anker Innovation and Shein, you will obviously find that the reason why these two companies have such high valuations in the capital market, especially the high growth of the latter. It is inseparable from the help of capital. Capital is not good or bad, and the core lies in how to use it. Providing funds by capital is only the bottom-level role, and greater empowerment will greatly help to become stronger and bigger.</p><p>From the perspective of any industry development cycle, the large-scale entry of capital is after the penetration rate has increased to a certain extent. At this time, the investors were talents such as some large manufacturers, highly educated people, and rich industry experience. Driven by technology, these innovative forces began to take a new path and reconstruct the business structure. In other words, if you don't accept the investment, the capital will be invested in your competitors.</p>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why on earth does Amazon block Chinese sellers?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy on earth does Amazon block Chinese sellers?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">36氪</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-23 10:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Because of the account banning and capital freezing incident,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>It has been hot searched this year.</p><p>Therefore, the information that has led to the whole cross-border e-commerce has always been that today's big sale is closed, and tomorrow's big sale will lay off employees. Especially under the swallowing up of some We Media traffic, there seems to be no positive events in the industry.</p><p>The key information asymmetry here is how many Chinese stores has Amazon closed? At the beginning, the most mainstream rumor was that there were 50,000. Since Amazon officials kept quiet, this number gradually acquiesced into a fact.</p><p>Even at the event that Amazon held last Friday when the world's first comprehensive seller training center settled in Hangzhou, it kept its mouth shut about the number of store closures, and did not plan to disclose it to the public, hoping that the cold treatment would pass.</p><p>The invited media will definitely not miss this rare opportunity, so they turned a question-and-answer session of the settlement event into a press conference of the store closure tide. So much so that Cindy Tai, Amazon's global vice president and CEO of Amazon's global store opening Asia-Pacific region, said frankly, \"Today's release was originally aimed at the training center settling in Hangzhou, but I didn't expect so many media to pay attention to the blocking of the account, so we made the first response together.\"</p><p>According to her disclosure, in the past five months, Amazon has closed the brand sales authority of about 600 Chinese sellers, involving about 3,000 brands, including some big sellers. \"These sellers have repeatedly, repeatedly and seriously abused comments, as well as many other violations. In the past period of time, Amazon has given many warnings to these sellers, and they have many opportunities to appeal, and even restored some deactivated accounts. However, these sellers continue to violate the rules, so this time they decided to terminate the cooperative relationship with these sellers.\"</p><p>In translation, the blocked seller's violation of regulations was serious, and Amazon gave him many opportunities and still refused to change, so it was forced to take the last step.</p><p>\"Amazon only released the data for the first five months, but the data for June, July and August were not disclosed. Many stores were also affected in these three months. So the final figure must be much larger than this.\" A senior practitioner told<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRKR\">36 Krypton</a>。</p><p>For sellers who rely heavily on Amazon, the loss is really not small. For example, once<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01668\">China South City</a>There is a tree among the four, 340 shops have been closed, and 130 million yuan of funds have been frozen. It directly led to half of employees leaving their jobs, half of their income, and a net loss of over 700 million yuan; Another big seller, Tongtuo Technology, was banned from selling and closed 54 stores, with frozen funds of 41.43 million yuan.</p><p>So, why is Amazon's store closure so strong this time? What are the things behind it that make us really reflect on?</p><p>Advances in Algorithms</p><p>In fact, everyone in the industry knows an unspoken rule. That is, Amazon has two account sweeps every year, once on Prime Day around July. Amazon usually closes some accounts 2 months in advance for its own large-scale promotion, that is, from the end of April to the beginning of May; Another time is two months before Christmas, that is, mid-October or early November.</p><p>Because of seeing this huge loophole, many sellers have their own countermeasures. For example, a brand authorizes 50 stores, and blocking a few has no impact at all. \"In fact, as long as the shops closed don't exceed a certain percentage, even the boss doesn't need to know about it.\" A seller told 36Kr.</p><p>After last year's big explosion in the industry, all sellers are more optimistic this year, and they don't see the real risks behind this incident at all. In fact, as early as 3 years ago, Amazon was using algorithms<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>In detecting whether commodity reviews are true or false. In the past, many self-operated Listing (product pages) have been blocked. For example, the Listing of a seller in Shenzhen has been reduced from 17,000 to 1,000, and the circle of friends is also a wail. Fortunately, later, because the error was too serious, Amazon did not continue to shut down on a large scale.</p><p>But the technology has been improving until this year it began to mature a lot. In addition, Amazon has changed the rules, no longer judging according to the logic of the store, but according to the logic of the brand dimension. As long as the algorithm identifies the problematic brand and exceeds a certain proportion, all its stores will be closed. That's why a large number of shop groups have been blocked.</p><p>36Kr also noticed that Amazon's new CEO Andy Jassy (Andy Jassy) was previously the CEO of Amazon Cloud Computing, not the head of e-commerce. This also proves that Amazon, as a data-driven company, pays more attention to the protection of the authenticity of platform data.</p><p>\"I believe that after this incident, many sellers will start to adopt the white hat game. And Amazon also encourages on-site invitation reviews and invites users to evaluate through on-site letters. If the product and experience are not good, it will definitely be a bad review invited back. So this matter is very good for the whole ecology. If bad money keeps driving out good money, good money can't be done.\" said the above seller.</p><p>Vendor Logic</p><p>In addition to the continuous iteration of the algorithm, Amazon's definition of sellers is also different from that of domestic Tmall Taobao. The difference is that Amazon regards all sellers on the platform as suppliers, and itself is equivalent to a retailer.</p><p>In other words, all digital assets of the seller on Amazon belong to Amazon. Even if you are<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>, yes<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NKE\">Nike</a>, are all suppliers of Amazon.</p><p>\"It can be understood that Tmall is similar to a shopping mall, and Amazon is a department store. So this laid the groundwork for some punishment mechanisms of Amazon. If Tmall sellers violate the rules, will the platform move your goods and funds? Amazon talks more about sales scale, and Tmall talks about GMV.\" Zhou Jun, vice president of sales of Zhiyun Tiangong, told 36Kr.</p><p>It's different for Amazon. Once the customer's payment is received, it is responsible for the user. As long as it is found that the seller may cause harm to the customer, the funds will be frozen first to cope with whether the subsequent liability will be jointly and severally liable for the lawsuit.</p><p>This has also been confirmed by Cindy Tai. Amazon's fund freezing period is 90 days, which is mainly used to bear the refund and return compensation fees of the seller's past customers, as well as other unpaid fees. After 90 days, if there is no violation, you can apply for retrieval.</p><p>Therefore, opening a store on Amazon is actually not selling goods yourself, but the seller supplies goods to the platform, and the platform helps sell goods. Amazon is not an administrative or judicial institution and has no power to freeze funds and goods. But because of Amazon's supplier logic, as long as it violates the supplier rules, it has to be kicked out of the list.</p><p>\"In terms of values, brushing bills is a serious act of lying and fraud, and we all hate it. But we can't blindly stigmatize Chinese sellers. Everyone in the industry is working day and night. What Amazon has done badly is that there is at least a hearing to give sellers a self-identification link. For sellers, the legitimate rights and interests to be fought for must be fought for. If this time passes silently, the future is probably a nightmare. \" Zhou Jun said.</p><p>In terms of the complaint process, Cindy Tai, global vice president of Amazon and executive president of Amazon Global Store Open Asia Pacific, said that if a seller's account is deactivated due to violations, Amazon will provide sellers with opportunities to complain; As long as the seller proves that Amazon's judgment was wrong, or that the violation was only temporary or unintentional, and provides a plan on how to avoid another violation, these accounts will resume normal operation.</p><p>However, according to 36 Krypton's knowledge from many sellers, the probability of successful appeal from Amazon is almost zero. At the same time, it is not very accurate to grasp the diverse changes of Amazon's rules. The main problem is that email communication is very inefficient.</p><p>Where's the way out?</p><p>For the entire cross-border e-commerce industry, it is still in a very early stage, and it is not even an industry. 36 Krypton found from a number of investment institutions visited that investors' optimistic judgment on the industry has not been affected in any way. What I have been looking for is which companies can go through the cycle and have the consciousness and ability to get out of a new brand.</p><p>It is difficult to build a brand. What is needed is the company's comprehensive capabilities on user needs, marketing methods, supply chain influence, etc., but it is precisely because of the high threshold that it is even scarcer. Especially<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300866\">Anker Innovation</a>The success of Shein and Shein has made all investors very excited and look forward to finding the next such investment target.</p><p>On the way out in the future, the first thing the industry needs to reconstruct is consciousness. In the past, the distribution path has been a dead end, and the sooner the transformation opportunities will be. A big seller in the industry lost a lot of first-mover dividends because it was two years late to transform its brand. When I chased back, I found that the probability of success was very small. This is also the dividend path dependence left in the early stages of the industry. Because it was easier to make quick money in the past, people are reluctant to take a difficult and correct path with accumulation.</p><p>Then, find a subdivided vertical category for deep cultivation. If it was a rough operation before, it must be refined now. Moreover, the threshold for category requirements has become higher. Why didn't the previous simple and rude mode work? It is because consumers are awakening and have higher requirements for product quality and services. Third parties like Amazon are gradually changing their strategies to encourage brands to be more determined. Under such an environment, without the ability to refine, there may be no profit at all in the future.</p><p>Secondly, introduce some high-quality technical talents. The epidemic is the beginning of cross-border e-commerce going out of the circle, and the title banning is accelerating. The direct impact is that more entrepreneurs enter across borders. For industries that seem to have no threshold, in fact, the threshold is not low, especially in the practical stage. Maybe part of the pure business logic can still be passed through until now, but the advantage of building competitive barriers requires more high-quality talents to join. Especially on the technical side, as far as industry practitioners are concerned, there is still a lot of room for improvement.</p><p>Finally, be good at using capital power. All along, because cross-border e-commerce is easy to make money, there is even no shortage of cash flow. Therefore, the desire for capital is relatively average, but if you sort out Anker Innovation and Shein, you will obviously find that the reason why these two companies have such high valuations in the capital market, especially the high growth of the latter. It is inseparable from the help of capital. Capital is not good or bad, and the core lies in how to use it. Providing funds by capital is only the bottom-level role, and greater empowerment will greatly help to become stronger and bigger.</p><p>From the perspective of any industry development cycle, the large-scale entry of capital is after the penetration rate has increased to a certain extent. At this time, the investors were talents such as some large manufacturers, highly educated people, and rich industry experience. Driven by technology, these innovative forces began to take a new path and reconstruct the business structure. In other words, if you don't accept the investment, the capital will be invested in your competitors.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202109221714177c3f3de2&s=b\">36氪</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dffe01d72356572c6df4fa7726ddb0c","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202109221714177c3f3de2&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2169565516","content_text":"因为封号冻资事件，亚马逊今年一直被热搜。\n所以导致整个跨境电商笼罩的信息一直是今天这个大卖关了，明天那个大卖裁员了。特别是在一些自媒体流量吞噬下，行业似乎就没有一些积极事件发生。\n这里面比较关键的信息不对称是亚马逊到底封了多少个中国店铺？开始最主流传言是有5万家，由于亚马逊官方一直保持不对外发声，这个数字就逐渐默认成事实。\n即使在亚马逊上周五召开的全球首个综合性卖家培训中心落户杭州活动上，对于封店数量还是三缄其口，不计划对外披露，希望冷处理就过去。\n被邀请的媒体们肯定不会放过这个难得机会，所以活生生把一场落户活动问答环节变成了封店潮发布会。以至于亚马逊全球副总裁、亚马逊全球开店亚太区执行总裁 Cindy Tai都坦言，“今天这个发布本来是针对培训中心落户杭州的，只是没想到这么多媒体关注账号被封之事，所以就一起进行了首次回应。”\n据她透露，过去5个月，亚马逊关闭了约600个中国卖家品牌销售权限，涉及品牌数约3000个，包括一些大卖家。“这些卖家都有多次、反复、严重滥用评论行为，以及有许多其他违规行为。在过去一段时间，亚马逊对这些卖家进行过多次警告，他们也有多次申诉机会，甚至恢复了一些停用过的账号。但是这些卖家持续违规，所以这次决定终止和这些卖家的合作关系。”\n翻译过来就是，被封掉的卖家违规行为严重，亚马逊给了很多次机会仍屡教不改，所以被迫走了最后一步。\n“亚马逊只是公布了前五个月的数据，6、7、8月数据没有披露，这三个月也有很多店铺受影响。所以最终的数字一定比这个大很多。”一位资深从业者告诉36氪。\n对于严重依赖亚马逊的卖家来说，损失确实不小。比如曾经的华南城四少之有棵树，被封掉店铺340个，冻结资金1.3亿元。直接导致员工离职一半，收入下滑一半，净亏损超7亿元；另一大卖通拓科技被禁售关闭店铺数 54 个， 冻结资金 4143 万元。\n那么，亚马逊这次封店力度和强度为什么这么大？背后让我们真正反思的又有哪些？\n算法的进步\n事实上，行业内都知道一个潜规则。就是亚马逊每年固定有两次账号扫荡，一次是在7月左右的会员日（Prime Day），亚马逊为了自己这个大型促销活动通常会提前2个月关掉一些账号，也就是在4月底到5月初；另一次是在圣诞节的前2个月，即10月中旬或者11月初。\n因为看到了这个巨大的漏洞，所以很多卖家都有自己的应对之策。比如一个品牌授权50个店铺，封掉几个完全没有影响。“其实只要关掉的店铺没有超过一定比例，连老板都不需要知道这事。”某卖家告诉36氪。\n经过去年行业大爆炸后，今年所有卖家也都更乐观，完全没看到这件事背后真正的风险。其实早在3年前，亚马逊就在利用算法机器人在检测商品评论是真实还是虚假。曾经也封掉了很多自营Listing（产品页面），比如深圳某卖家的Listing就从1.7万缩减至1000，朋友圈也是一篇哀嚎。好在后来因为有误差太严重，亚马逊就没再大规模继续封停。\n但技术一直在进步，直到今年开始成熟许多。加上亚马逊改变了规则，不再是按照店铺逻辑评判，而是按照品牌维度逻辑。只要算法识别出有问题的品牌，也超过了一定比例，旗下店铺一律关停。所以才有了大量店铺群被封。\n36氪也注意到，亚马逊新任CEO安迪·杰西(Andy Jassy)，此前是亚马逊云计算CEO，不是电商负责人。这也证明亚马逊作为一家数据驱动公司，对于平台数据真实度的保护更加重视。\n“相信这次事件以后，很多卖家会开始采用白帽玩法。以及亚马逊也鼓励站内邀评，通过站内信邀请用户评价。如果产品和体验不好，邀回来的肯定是差评。所以这件事对整个生态是很有好处的。如果一直劣币驱逐良币，良币就不可能做起来。”上述卖家说道。\n供应商逻辑\n除了算法的持续迭代外，亚马逊对卖家定义也和国内天猫淘宝不一样。不一样地方在于，亚马逊是把平台上所有卖家视为供应商，自己相当于一个零售商。\n也就是说，卖家在亚马逊上的所有数字资产都归属亚马逊。即使你是苹果，是耐克，都是亚马逊的供应商。\n“可以这么理解，天猫类似于一个购物中心，亚马逊是一个百货公司。所以这就埋下了亚马逊的一些处罚机制伏笔。如果是天猫卖家违规，平台会动你的货和资金吗？亚马逊谈的更多是销售规模，天猫谈才GMV。”智云天工销售副总周骏告诉36氪。\n对于亚马逊就不同，一旦收了顾客的货款，就要为用户负责。只要发现卖家可能对顾客造成伤害，就会先把资金冻结，以应付后续会不会因为起诉承担连带责任。\n这也得到了Cindy Tai的证实，亚马逊资金冻结周期为90天，主要用来承担卖家过去客户的退款退货赔偿费用，以及其他未支付费用。90天后，如果没有违规会可申请取回。\n所以，在亚马逊开店，其实不是自己在卖货，而是卖家给平台供货，平台再帮忙卖货。亚马逊不是行政和司法机构，没权力冻结资金和货。但就因为亚马逊的供应商逻辑，因此只要违反了供应商规则，就得从名录里踢掉。\n“从价值观来讲，刷单是严重的撒谎、造假行为，我们都是深恶痛绝的。但也不能一味污名化中国卖家，行业里大家都在没日没夜干活。亚马逊做的不好的地方是，起码有个听证会，给卖家一个自辨环节。对于卖家来说，该争取的合法权益必须争取。如果这次默默过去，未来估计是噩梦。”周骏说。\n在申诉流程上，亚马逊全球副总裁、亚马逊全球开店亚太区执行总裁 Cindy Tai表示，如果一个卖家账号因为违规行为被停用，亚马逊会为卖家提供申诉机会；只要这个卖家证明亚马逊判断有误，或者证明违规行为只是暂时或无意失误，并提供如何避免再次违规方案，这些账号会恢复正常运营。\n但据36氪从多位卖家处了解到，从亚马逊申诉成功的概率几乎为0。同时，对于亚马逊的规则变化多样把握也不是很准，其中主要问题在于邮件沟通这种方式效率很低。\n出路在哪儿？\n对于整个跨境电商行业来说，目前还处于很早期阶段，甚至都还谈不上一个行业。36氪从走访的多家投资机构中发现，投资人对行业的乐观判断未受到任何影响。一直在寻找的是，哪些企业能穿越周期，有意识有能力走出一个新品牌。\n塑造一个品牌很难，需要的是企业对用户需求、营销玩法、供应链影响等综合能力，但正因为门槛高，所以才更加稀缺。特别是安克创新和Shein的成功，让所有投资人都很兴奋，期待找到下一个这样的投资标的。\n在未来出路上，行业首先要重构的是意识。过往的铺货路径已经是死胡同，越早转型机会越多。行业某大卖家就是因为晚了2年转型品牌，才丧失了很多先发红利。等回头猛追才发现，成功概率微乎其微。这个也是行业早期阶段留下的红利路径依赖，因为过去方式赚快钱更容易，所以都不太愿意走一条有积累、难而正确的路。\n然后，找到一个细分的垂直品类深耕。如果说之前是粗旷式的经营，现在肯定要进行精细化运营。而且对品类要求门槛变得更高。为什么之前那种简单粗暴模式行不通？就是因为消费者在觉醒，对产品质量、服务要求变得更高，亚马逊这样的第三方也在逐渐改变策略，鼓励品牌决心更强。如此环境之下，没有精细化的能力，或许未来压根没有利润可言。\n其次，引入一些高素质的技术人才。疫情是跨境电商出圈的开始，封号是加速，带来的直接影响就是更多创业者跨界进入。看似没有门槛的行业，实则门槛不低，特别到了实操阶段。也许直到现在还能走通一部分纯生意逻辑，但是打造竞争壁垒这件事优势就需要更多高素质人才加入。特别是偏技术端，就目前行业从业者来看，能提升的空间还是很大。\n最后，善于借助资本力量。一直以来，因为跨境电商赚钱容易，甚至不缺现金流。所以对资本的欲望也相对一般，但如果梳理安克创新和Shein就会明显发现，这两家公司之所以在资本市场有这么高的估值，特别是后者的高增长。离不开资本的助力，资本无好坏，核心在于如何去利用。资本提供资金只是底层作用，更大的赋能对做强做大帮助大。\n从任何一个行业发展周期来看，资本大规模进入是在渗透率有一定提高之后。这时候投资的是一些大厂、高学历、丰富行业经验等人才，这些创新力量在技术推动下开始走出新的路子，以及重构商业格局。换句话说，你不接受投资，资本就会投资你的竞争对手。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2771,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":860401476,"gmtCreate":1632193536795,"gmtModify":1676530722519,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/860401476","repostId":"2169684551","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2738,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881911500,"gmtCreate":1631284760100,"gmtModify":1676530520376,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/881911500","repostId":"1144889232","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2351,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":883091778,"gmtCreate":1631186053494,"gmtModify":1676530490511,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/883091778","repostId":"2166195813","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2166195813","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"新型财经科技信息服务提供商，专注TMT。技术改变商业，商业改变世界，我们纪录这个过程，并聚集这些改变世界的人。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"TMTPost","id":"1065587721","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72948639b39fd795a430fcaa2772851c"},"pubTimestamp":1631170956,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2166195813?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-09 15:02","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"When was \"Nvidia\" born in China?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2166195813","media":"TMTPost","summary":"这一事件引发了人们对虚拟现实、元宇宙、AI换脸等技术和概念的激烈讨论，同时也让“英伟达”这家美国芯片霸主从半导体行业“出圈”，走入了大众视野。另外，作为全球芯片销量大国，中国却没有出现一家“英伟达”这样的芯片巨头，大市场并没有产生与之匹配的大公司。","content":"<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01e0bbbfdbdc6f8f2f7ce512582f7c3e\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"750\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>CEO Huang Renxun (Image source: Nvidia official website)</p><p>\"The product I'm about to show incorporates new GPU-accelerated computing capabilities and has Mellanox high-performance network. The product that complements our last piece of the puzzle is-the world's first CPU processor designed for terabyte-level data center accelerated computing. Its secret code name is Grace.\"</p><p>This is a passage from NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang's speech at the GTC Summit in April 2021. However, what is unexpected is that people didn't know until August 12 after Nvidia's self-exposure that the content of this speech, which was less than 100 words and 14 seconds, was not Huang Renxun himself, but a synthetic \"digital avatar\", that is, the \"virtual Huang Renxun\" image formed by Nvidia GPU processor and Omniverse software platform.</p><p>This incident triggered heated discussions on technologies and concepts such as virtual reality, metaverse, and AI face-changing. At the same time, it also allowed \"Nvidia\", the American chip overlord, to \"get out of the circle\" from the semiconductor industry and enter the public's field of vision.</p><p>Since its establishment in 1993, under the leadership of Huang Renxun, Nvidia has successfully created and led the category of GPU (graphics processor) chips, covering the entire PC device GPU to server GPU market. In the past five years,<b>Nvidia's market value has grown from US $31 billion to US $505 billion, becoming the world's seventh largest semiconductor supplier. It is artificial<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>A hot star company in the field of (AI) chips.</b></p><p>At the same time, Nvidia's market value exceeded<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>After that, the domestic semiconductor market saw greater market opportunities in the GPU and AI chip tracks.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300474\">Jing Jiawei</a>, Tianshu Zhixin, Denglin Technology, Biren Technology, Suiyuan Technology,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688256\">Cambrian</a>, Muxi Integrated Circuit and other companies are all gathering in the general-purpose processor track.</p><p>In the past two years, the domestic semiconductor industry has undergone changes. Due to Huawei HiSilicon,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMI\">SMIC</a>The impact of the US \"entity list\" and the chain reaction triggered by the global chip shortage have made it increasingly difficult for Chinese companies to purchase US semiconductor products, and the demand for \"domestic substitution\" has become stronger.</p><p>On June 29, 2020, due to the further upgrade of the US \"Export Administration Regulations\" and the continuous adjustment of the members of the entity list, Intel \"temporarily suspended\" the supply of chips to Inspur Group.</p><p>Although Inspur subsequently announced on July 3 that Intel had resumed supplying it, one is the world's largest supplier of PC and cloud service x86 architecture chips, and the other is China's largest server manufacturer. The temporary supply cut-off crisis between the two companies has reminded the entire Chinese cloud computing and semiconductor industries:<b>As the demand for computing power becomes stronger and stronger, China needs to mass-produce fully independent and controllable domestic GPU and server chip products.</b>This highlights that \"domestic substitution\" is becoming the biggest driving force for the development of China's semiconductor industry.</p><p><b>In addition, as the world's largest chip sales country, China has not had a chip giant like \"Nvidia\", and the big market has not produced a matching large company.</b>According to statistics from IC Insight, the global semiconductor market in 2020 will be US $395.7 billion, of which the mainland China market will be US $43.4 billion, making it the world's largest market, accounting for 36.24% of the global share. However, the total output value of semiconductor companies based in mainland China in 2020 was only US $8.3 billion, accounting for only 5.9% of the market size.</p><p><b>Who can cut off a corner of such a huge cake? When will the semiconductor industry create \"China Nvidia\"?</b></p><p><h2>Missed Golden Age</h2>GPU graphics processor, also known as display chip and vision processor, was originally proposed by Nvidia in 1999. It is a microprocessor dedicated to running graphics operations on personal computers, workstations, game consoles and mobile devices (smartphones, tablets, VR devices).</p><p>As the parallel computing advantages of GPU are gradually tapped, the application fields of GPU have expanded from graphics processing to high-performance computing, and gradually become the most mature and widely used general-purpose chip for Al computing. In June 2020, Nvidia launched the A100 Tensor Core GPU based on the Ampere architecture, becoming the world's most powerful AI chip.</p><p>From the perspective of application terminals, GPUs can be divided into PC-side GPUs, server GPUs and mobile GPUs, corresponding to three architectures, namely, independent graphics cards composed of dedicated circuit boards and components, shared integrated graphics cards, and mobile GPUs and other chips or modules are packaged together into highly integrated SoCs-used in multiple application scenarios including mobile phones, automotive electronics, and AI.</p><p><b>since<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>After the acquisition of Canadian GPU manufacturer ATI in 2006, in the field of PC and server GPUs, the global GPU market is currently monopolized by the \"American chip giants\"-Intel, AMD and Nvidia. Intel has obvious advantages in the integrated GPU market, while Nvidia and AMD are separated in the independent GPU market.</b></p><p>According to data from research firm Jon Peddie Research, in the first quarter of 2021, in the global PC-side GPU market, Intel (Intel) topped the list with a market share of 68%, AMD and Nvidia with 17% and 14% respectively, and the total share of the three companies is close to 100%; In the global independent GPU field, Nvidia is the leader in the data center GPU market, accounting for 81% of the market share, with a leading edge, while AMD ranks second with a 19% share.</p><p>In 2019 alone, Nvidia occupied 90% of China's AI training chip market with its V100 series and other products, firmly grasping China's huge AI chip sales market.</p><p>One of the core reasons why Nvidia can continue to be the \"chip overlord\" lies in its \"light design pattern.\" Nvidia does not engage in chip manufacturing and packaging, but is handed over to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>After the OEM is completed, it enjoys the dividends of advanced manufacturing technology such as 7nm. According to the financial report, between 2016 and 2021, Nvidia's revenue increased by 233%, and its operating profit doubled to US $4.5 billion. In the three months to May this year, sales soared 84% year-on-year, and gross profit margin reached 64%.</p><p><b>In fact, China entered the field of GPU chip design very early, but the results were not satisfactory.</b></p><p><b>Since the 1970s, China began to introduce semiconductor and integrated circuit technology and production lines. But the result is that we have fallen into the a vicious circle of \"introducing from generation to generation and lagging behind from generation to generation\", coupled with the adverse impact of the \"Hanxin No. 1\" fake chip incident on society, China's \"independent processor\" has suffered serious setbacks, and China has actively promoted WTO globalization and other factors, thus missing the golden period of the development of the global semiconductor industry, and downstream companies can only \"make it better than buy\".</b></p><p>It was not until 2000, marked by the promulgation of the national \"Document No. 18\", that China's semiconductors gradually formed an industrial organization form of \"separation of the three industries\" of design, manufacturing, packaging and testing, and introduced \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688981\">SMIC</a>A number of chip manufacturing (Foundry) companies represented by \"have been built and put into production in China, and their technical level has been rapidly improved.</p><p>At present, companies such as Jingjiawei, Tianshu Zhixin, Denglin Technology, Biren Technology, Suiyuan Technology, Cambrian, and Muxi Integrated Circuit are all gathering in the general processor track.</p><p>In 2014, \"Jingjiawei\" (300474. SH), which started as a military aircraft graphics display control module, successfully developed the military GPU chip JM5400, and then successfully developed the second-generation GPU chip JM7200 with a 28nm process technology in 2018. Jingjiawei has moved from military customization to general-purpose GPUs, becoming the only company in the world and the only company in China to achieve commercial mass production of independent GPUs.</p><p>In addition to Jingjiawei, in March 2021, Tianshu Zhixin released the first GPGPU (General Purpose Graphics Processor) manufactured by a 7-nanometer process in China, which removes 30% of the graphics rendering part of the traditional GPU and is only used to deal with artificial intelligence (AI)) Born of application; In June this year, Suiyuan Technology released China's largest AI computing chip \"Suisi 2.0\" AI chip, the \"Yunsui T20\" training accelerator card based on Suisi 2.0 and the \"Yunsui T21\" training OAM module.</p><p>However, it is worth noting that the performance of the JM7200 chip developed by Jingjiawei is only equivalent to the level of Nvidia GTX 640 in 2012, which is difficult to meet the application needs of enterprise customers. Even Suiyuan Technology's \"Suisi 2.0\" AI chip is only tied with Nvidia's A100. Two of the six items tested by Benchmark significantly surpassed the performance of Nvidia's A100. (For details, see the previous article of Titanium Media App: \"Suiyuan Technology releases China's largest AI computing chip to accelerate the implementation of three major business directions\")</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15cb73d2787595547a9ed01926f4dfbe\" tg-width=\"570\" tg-height=\"1926\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>The reason behind this is mainly due to the late start of China's semiconductor industry, the high technical threshold of chips, high cost elasticity, and high concentration of industries, which makes the overall R&D investment, technology, and talents of Chinese GPU chip companies lag behind foreign countries, thus improving product performance and technology There is still a gap with chip giants, and it is still difficult for downstream companies to escape from the situation of the \"American Chip Big Three\".</b></p><p>Taking R&D investment as an example, in the ten years from 2011 to 2020, Jingjiawei's total R&D investment expenses were RMB 627 million, while Nvidia's R&D investment in 2020 reached US $3.924 billion, or approximately RMB 25.323 billion. In the past ten years, Nvidia has invested more than 120 billion yuan, a difference of more than 190 times.</p><p>In terms of talents, as of the first half of 2021, the number of Nvidia employees is as high as 18,975, and the total number of Jingjiawei employees is 1,174, far lower than the 2,000 employees of AMD's Shanghai R&D center.</p><p>\"The AI chip and GPU chip market is quite special. Unlike traditional dedicated processors, the technology is very complex. It requires a large amount of data and needs to be combined with specific algorithms before it can be put into market use.\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>Xie Zhonghui, deputy general manager of China, said in an exclusive interview with Titanium Media App in April this year that if a company wants to make its first AI chip solid, it usually takes more than two or three years.</p><p>In his view, chip semiconductor itself is an industry with large investment, long cycle, and slow results. Complete localization of technology requires long-term and sustained accumulation of capital, talent, and technology. It is difficult to use the Internet thinking of \"spending money and seeing returns\" to deal with.</p><p><b>In addition, the software and hardware ecosystem combined with CUDA technology is another important reason for the large gap between domestic chip companies and Nvidia.</b></p><p>In 2006, Nvidia released the parallel computing platform CUDA, which contains a series of development tools. Only by installing and using this platform can complex parallel computing be performed. Anyone who owns a laptop equipped with Nvidia GPU can use CUDA to perform scientific and convenient programming calculations, such as deep learning, AI algorithms, etc., and develop related software. Over the past ten years or so, NVIDIA has persistently promoted CUDA, making more government-level and enterprise-level software developed based on this platform, combining NVIDIA's self-developed GPU hardware with CUDA software to efficiently implement applications.</p><p>In contrast, there is currently no series of platforms in China that are deeply bound to CUDA and Nvidia's hardware, and the gap in technical barriers is very obvious. Most domestic GPU manufacturers adopt strategies that are compatible with the CUDA open source framework, such as Tianshu Zhixin, Denglin, etc., and are preparing to cultivate their own software ecosystem on this basis.</p><p>\"In the short term, it is easier to develop domestic GPUs compatible with CUDA. After all, writing operators is a labor-intensive industry. If users migrate, 100% migration is required, and the entire set of code must run on your chip. If the amount of code is small, the need There are not so many operators, and the difficulty is relatively low. But in the long run, it is still necessary to get rid of the idea of compatibility and develop its own core technology.\"</p><p>However, there are also companies that choose not to be compatible with the CUDA ecosystem. For example, Suiyuan Technology, which makes both AI training and inference chips, has comprehensively upgraded its \"Yusuan TopsRider\" software platform and the new \"Yunsui Cluster\" this year, hoping to have ecological dominance.</p><p><b>To sum up, these domestic chip companies that benchmark Nvidia are still in the initial stage of development. The industrialization and marketization capabilities of AI chip technology are weak, and there is no actual large-scale use. There is still a long way to go to surpass or replace \"China Nvidia\".</b></p><p>Yan Guihai, CEO of Zhongke Yushu, said in an interview with Titanium Media App that although China's demand side is still the largest single market in the world and its growth rate is among the best, the \"demand side\" is still very strong, but in terms of high-end chips, whether it is design or There is still a big gap in manufacturing, and the \"supply side\" is not strong enough. He pointed out that the quality of the supply side depends not only on one enterprise, but on the capabilities of the entire industry chain. It is still unrealistic to build such a large-scale and comprehensive leading enterprise in the short term.</p><p>Founded in 2018, Zhongke Yushu is a developer of dedicated computing architecture. It was incubated from the State Key Laboratory of Computer Architecture, Institute of Computing Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Today, the company's valuation has exceeded 1 billion yuan. On July 27 this year, Zhongke Yushu completed hundreds of millions of yuan in Series A financing, led by Huatai Innovation, followed by Lingjun Investment and old shareholder Guoxin Xichuang.</p><p>Huang Liming, partner of Hillhouse and head of software and hard technology at Hillhouse Venture Capital, said in an exclusive interview with Titanium Media App that although the GPU market has broad prospects, China<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V03.SI\">Startups</a>It is difficult to make it directly into \"Nvidia\". In addition to the technical difficulty, it must be done in combination with strong applications-involving software system and software ecology, which is extremely demanding for startups.</p><p>Hillhouse launched the independent VC brand Hillhouse Venture Capital in February 2020. Since then, it has invested in the field of chip semiconductors, including semiconductor IP company Xinyaohui, EDA manufacturer Xinhuazhang, GPU platform Biren Technology, DPU company Nebula Zhilian, plus Tianke Heda in silicon carbide, Minxin Semiconductor in optical chip field, and mobile phone baseband Xingsi Semiconductor, etc.</p><p>Huang Liming emphasized that Hillhouse judges that there will not be many companies that can run out in this direction, whether overseas or domestic.</p><p><h2>The tuyere has arrived</h2>\"Let's not worry about how to replace Nvidia now. The road is step by step. I think first of all, China must have domestic AI chips, general-purpose GPUs, FPGAs and other underlying computing power. As long as there is domestic market demand, we must have many opportunities.\" Zhang Gaonan, managing partner of Huaying Capital, told Titanium Media App that the domestic semiconductor industry has arrived, and China is now equipped with \"the right time, the right location, and the right people\" to enter the GPU market.</p><p>Zhang Gaonan gave an example,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688111\">Kingsoft Office</a>Although products are inferior to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>office suite, but the market has given a market value of more than 110 billion yuan. One of the important reasons behind it is that China must have a domestic office, and the same principle applies to the domestic GPU market.</p><p>Huaying Capital is one of the earliest private equity funds in China to deploy mobile Internet and cultural industries. In recent years, the To B field has also become the key investment field of Huaying Capital. At present, Huaying Capital has invested in more than 30 projects in the To B field, with a total investment of over 700 million yuan, which is built by Zhang Gaonan, a technical investor. In the fields related to data middle platform and underlying computing power, Huaying Capital has invested in projects such as Biren Technology, Tianyun Big Data, and Zhongke Haiwei.</p><p>In fact, as a general platform spanning visual computing and AI computing, GPU has a huge market space.<b>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601555\">Soochow Securities</a>It is estimated that by 2027, the market space for domestic substitution in the GPU field will exceed US $34.1 billion. In addition to the existing game market, there is room for further development in industrial, medical, military aerospace and other directions.</b></p><p>In March of this year, \"Biren Technology\", a general-purpose smart chip designer co-founded by Zhang Wen, the former president of SenseTime, completed the B round of financing. Since its establishment in September 2019, the company's total financing amount has exceeded 4.7 billion yuan. Investors include Hillhouse Venture Capital, Huaying Capital,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601318\">China Ping An</a>, China Merchants Capital, BAI Capital, Guosheng Group National Reform Fund, etc., with a valuation of more than 10 billion yuan, one of the \"unicorn\" companies with the fastest growth momentum in the semiconductor industry.</p><p><b>In addition to Biren, companies that have entered the GPU field such as Muxi Integrated Circuit and Moore Thread have also completed financing.</b></p><p>On August 25, GPU manufacturer Muxi Integrated Circuit announced the completion of a RMB 1 billion Series A financing. The founders Chen Weiliang and Yang Jian are all from the American chip giant AMD. Investors include China State-owned Enterprise Structural Adjustment Fund Co., Ltd.,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00810\">China Internet Investment</a>Fund, Jingwei China, Holly Capital, Sequoia China, Lightspeed China, Guochuang Zhongding, Smart Internet Industry Fund, Shanghai Science and Technology Innovation Fund, Lenovo Venture Capital, etc.; The Moore Thread, established in 2020, claims to have completed two rounds of multi-billion-yuan financing within 100 days. The team members are mainly from Nvidia, and investors include Shenzhen Venture Capital and Sequoia Capital<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHN\">China Fund</a>, China Merchants Venture Capital, ByteDance, Pony.ai, Wuyuan Capital, etc.</p><p><b>However, an interesting phenomenon is that the above three start-ups, Biren, Muxi, and Moore Thread, are veritable \"PPT financing core manufacturing\", and none of them completed the tape-out (assembly line trial production) of the first chip at the time of financing.</b></p><p>Why are market investors willing to open their wallets to this? Several investors said in an interview with Titanium Media App that these projects can receive a large amount of capital support because of the early stage of investment. The main focus is on the team and the track: the AI chip track has arrived, and the senior management team is also From the \"American Chip Big Three\".</p><p>\"I think these companies need to be given opportunities and patience. It is impossible for 500 people to write PPT. Manufacturing chips is a matter of 5 to 10 years. The reason why we are willing to invest is not speculation or deception. I think, investing in The semiconductor track itself is risky, requires long-term plans, and requires strong enough risk-taking ability, which is completely different from investing in Internet model innovation.\" The above-mentioned investor told Titanium Media App.</p><p>However, some investors in the semiconductor industry pointed out that the above-mentioned investment projects essentially hope that the market value will be high and the rate of return will be higher. Especially in the \"chip fever\" environment, venture capital institutions need to constantly look for these GPU and AI chip companies in the middle and early stages. Targets, hoping to get a higher return from it.</p><p>In addition, in this wave of GPU entrepreneurship, the founding team developed the \"American Chip Big Three\". For example, Zheng Jinshan, chief scientist of Tianshu Zhixin, was the chief technical expert of AMD; Mu Xi's founding team is mainly from AMD. CEO Chen Weiliang once served as senior director of graphics research and development at AMD, and CTO Yang Jian once served as AMD Fellow (academician); Li Xinrong, the newly appointed co-CEO of Biren Technology, once served as the global vice president of AMD, and Chen Wenzhong, senior vice president of Biren Technology, also served in AMD.</p><p>In this regard, Zhang Gaonan said that AMD is the top two chip giants in the GPU field. The core research and development of GPUs is in Shanghai, while the research and development of graphics rendering is in the United States. Companies can go to the executives of AMD and Nvidia to communicate. The final choice must be the leader in the semiconductor industry.</p><p>Yan Guihai believes that in subdividing emerging tracks, relying on the \"potential energy\" of demand-side applications, Chinese chip companies concentrate their superior forces, base themselves on serving local companies, and highlight the agility of development. They have the opportunity to surpass \"Nvidia\" in terms of product definition and solution iteration cycle. These chip giants.<b>He predicts that a number of domestic GPU and DPU companies with leading technologies will emerge within 10 years.</b></p><p>\"Among the five links of the chip industry: design, manufacturing, packaging and testing, materials, and EDA, the most relevant to application is design, and our biggest advantage lies in application, so we have a great opportunity to make a breakthrough in the\" design \"link, and then gradually expand the victory territory from point to area. The so-called \"overtaking in corners\" is still a catch-up strategy. It is more likely to occupy new strategic commanding heights by cutting into a new track facing the future and accelerating with all your might. It is hoped that within 10 years, a group of enterprises with leading technology, solid products and strategic awareness will emerge. \" Yan Guihai told Titanium Media App.</p><p>Zhang Wen, founder of Biren Technology, said that the capability requirements for chip companies have been upgraded from product level to system level and ecological level. In no more than 5 years, China has caught up with or even led the international level in the field of AI chip design. He emphasized that surpassing Nvidia requires redefining a product and a market.</p><p><h2>The tens of billions of DPU chip market is \"exploding\"</h2>In Huang Renxun's view, the data processing unit (DPU) responsible for transmitting and processing data in the data center is forming the \"three pillars of future computing\" together with CPU and GPU. When Chinese chip companies focus on GPUs, Nvidia has set its sights on the two new markets of CPU and DPU.</p><p>In September 2020, Nvidia announced that it planned to acquire British chip designer Arm from a Japanese software group for US $40 billion, which is expected to write the largest merger and acquisition in the semiconductor industry. However, this deal is controversial and is still awaiting approval from governments such as the European Union, Britain, the United States and China. But in April 2021, Nvidia announced its entry into the data center CPU market and released the Grace CPU processor, which is what Huang Renxun said at the beginning of this article. (For details, see the previous article of Titanium Media App: \"The British government intervenes, Nvidia's US $40 billion acquisition of Arm transaction changes\")</p><p>In addition to CPU and GPU, Nvidia is also deploying DPU. In 2019, Nvidia announced that it would acquire Israeli network chip manufacturer Mellanox for US $6.9 billion in all-cash, and eventually won it. As for this largest acquisition in Nvidia's history, what Huang Renxun values most is Milosi's unique ability in data center technology and other aspects.<b>In October 2020, NVIDIA launched the DPU for the first time-NVIDIA BlueField series data processors.</b></p><p>Fundamentally, on the one hand, DPU is more flexible and secure, and more importantly, DPU can liberate the computing power of CPU, release the load of server, significantly reduce the overall cost with low power consumption, and even improve the performance of AI and machine learning applications.</p><p>According to IDC statistics, the global demand for computing power will double every 3.5 months, far exceeding the current growth rate of computing power. Driven by this, global computing, storage and network infrastructure are also undergoing fundamental changes: some workloads with excessive data volume occupy too much CPU resources, and various \"X\" PU chips that cooperate with them have emerged as the times require. In addition to chips such as GPU and FPGA, DPU is the next \"X\" PU.</p><p>People in the industry have made an image metaphor about this. The network is like building a road. In the past 1G and 10G era, the road was not wide enough, and there were more and more cars. In order to balance the pressure, we have increased traffic lights and invested more traffic police to coordinate resources higher. This has improved the original efficiency a lot, but it is still not enough. We must expand the road first, which means the bandwidth is increased, but the road has changed from 2 to 4. It will still be blocked only by traffic lights and limited traffic police, but we can't increase the traffic police indefinitely, which requires the road to be smarter and help solve the congestion.</p><p>Zhang Gaonan pointed out that a large amount of network management is in the CPU, occupying container capabilities, while DPU provides space capabilities for server intelligence. A large amount of virtualization space can increase computing power requirements.</p><p><b>With 2020, the reputation of DPUs surpasses the launch of infrastructure processors (IPUs) and SmartNICs launched by rival Intel, and every company eyeing the data center business needs a piece of this field. DPU has become a new track for major chip giants and start-up companies to compete for research and development. Domestic DPUs are now almost in a state of blooming. Sequoia, Hillhouse Ventures, CDH, and SoftBank China have all begun to enter the market.</b></p><p>In April this year, Tianyancha data showed that domestic DPU chip supplier \"Yunbao Intelligent\" completed<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>Investment, Sequoia Capital, Yaotu Capital, etc. joint angel round financing; At the end of May, Xinqiyuan completed hundreds of millions of yuan in Pre-A round financing, with investors including SoftBank China, Pudong Science and Technology Group, etc.; On July 27, DPU chip developer \"Zhongke Yushu\" completed hundreds of millions of yuan in Series A financing led by Huatai Innovation; On August 30, DPU chip developer Nebula Zhilian announced the completion of hundreds of millions of yuan in angel round financing, led by Hillhouse Venture Capital, with CDH VGC and Walden International China Fund participating in the investment; At the beginning of September, IDG Capital launched the \"Yunmai Xinlian\" angel round financing project.</p><p>\"DPU may become the third computing power chip after CPU and GPU, but from a structural point of view, DPU will be more heterogeneous and more dedicated.\" Yan Guihai said in an interview with Titanium Media App and others that DPU The background is the demand for computing delay, data security, and resource virtualization brought about by the end-edge-cloud integration trend caused by the data explosion in the intelligent era. The CPU is overwhelmed by these non-business loads, and an ideal object is urgently needed to share these computational loads.</p><p><b>Toubao Research Institute predicts that China's DPU market size is expected to reach US $3.74 billion in 2025. The global DPU market size is expected to reach US $13.57 billion in 2025.</b>At the same time, the report also pointed out that data circulation is the largest application market of DPU, among which bare metal services have a rigid demand for DPU. The application of DPU in the telecom market is mainly in edge computing scenarios, with a penetration rate of less than 5%. DPUs for the field of intelligent driving are still in the exploratory stage, and it is expected that DPUs will be deployed in the field of intelligent driving in 2023.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7170c585dab44018726df81a32c63d62\" tg-width=\"808\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>China's DPU market size, forecast from 2020 to 2025, source: Toubao Research Institute</p><p>Yan Guihai pointed out that the performance of CPU increased from 30% per year 5-10 years ago to less than 3% per year three years ago. The network bandwidth still increases by about 35% every year.</p><p>With<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600918\">Zhongtai Securities</a>For example, the challenge encountered by the company at that time was that the compliance inspection of transaction orders was too slow and the transaction efficiency needed to be improved. Therefore, Zhongke Yushu, Zhongtai Securities and Shanghai Stock Exchange Technology Co., Ltd. jointly developed a set of extremely fast risk control system solutions to speed up this process. Zhongke Yushu has successively developed multiple sets of products and solutions such as ultra-low latency smart network cards and data computing accelerator cards, mainly for high bandwidth, low latency, data-intensive and other scenarios. The company has achieved quarterly revenue of tens of millions this year. Zhongke Yushu's next-generation DPU chip is expected to be designed by the end of 2021 and is expected to process up to 200G network bandwidth data.</p><p><b>However, although the DPU market is hot, the concept is newer, there are more unknowns, and the investment risk will be greater.</b></p><p>Lu Sheng, CEO of Xinqiyuan, pointed out that the current barriers to the DPU segmentation track are still relatively high. In addition to technical barriers, there are also market barriers, which require customers to continuously iterate, especially in conjunction with the continuous upgrade of open source software to adapt to customers. Rapidly changing software and hardware environment. Therefore, before investing, VC (venture capital) must recognize the track and have enough patience. He emphasized that investors need to constantly observe the market and adjust their judgments, and no one can predict the future development prospects of DPU now.</p><p>Some media also believe that when Nvidia enters the newly opened CPU and DPU battlefield, it may be good for Chinese GPU manufacturers, especially when Nvidia still spends a lot of energy on the US $40 billion acquisition of British chip designer Arm. For GPU companies, it may be an opportunity to catch up.</p><p>As Zhang Gaonan told Titanium Media App, \"Logically speaking, things with low thresholds are usually not scarce. (Chip semiconductor track) Some things are difficult and require long-term investment. Although they are high-risk, but someone has to do it. This is a long-term investment that is really beneficial to the country. In fact, investment should be encouraged. Otherwise, if no one does these difficult things that require long-term investment, you will never get up to the next level.\"</p><p>Zhang Gaonan emphasized that although venture capital must pursue returns, he believes that when the entire capital allocation is reasonable, taking part of the start-ups that invest in the semiconductor track not only has strong social significance, but also some kind of long-term value investment. important manifestation.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>When was \"Nvidia\" born in China?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhen was \"Nvidia\" born in China?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1065587721\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/72948639b39fd795a430fcaa2772851c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">TMTPost </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-09 15:02</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01e0bbbfdbdc6f8f2f7ce512582f7c3e\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"750\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>CEO Huang Renxun (Image source: Nvidia official website)</p><p>\"The product I'm about to show incorporates new GPU-accelerated computing capabilities and has Mellanox high-performance network. The product that complements our last piece of the puzzle is-the world's first CPU processor designed for terabyte-level data center accelerated computing. Its secret code name is Grace.\"</p><p>This is a passage from NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang's speech at the GTC Summit in April 2021. However, what is unexpected is that people didn't know until August 12 after Nvidia's self-exposure that the content of this speech, which was less than 100 words and 14 seconds, was not Huang Renxun himself, but a synthetic \"digital avatar\", that is, the \"virtual Huang Renxun\" image formed by Nvidia GPU processor and Omniverse software platform.</p><p>This incident triggered heated discussions on technologies and concepts such as virtual reality, metaverse, and AI face-changing. At the same time, it also allowed \"Nvidia\", the American chip overlord, to \"get out of the circle\" from the semiconductor industry and enter the public's field of vision.</p><p>Since its establishment in 1993, under the leadership of Huang Renxun, Nvidia has successfully created and led the category of GPU (graphics processor) chips, covering the entire PC device GPU to server GPU market. In the past five years,<b>Nvidia's market value has grown from US $31 billion to US $505 billion, becoming the world's seventh largest semiconductor supplier. It is artificial<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>A hot star company in the field of (AI) chips.</b></p><p>At the same time, Nvidia's market value exceeded<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>After that, the domestic semiconductor market saw greater market opportunities in the GPU and AI chip tracks.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300474\">Jing Jiawei</a>, Tianshu Zhixin, Denglin Technology, Biren Technology, Suiyuan Technology,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688256\">Cambrian</a>, Muxi Integrated Circuit and other companies are all gathering in the general-purpose processor track.</p><p>In the past two years, the domestic semiconductor industry has undergone changes. Due to Huawei HiSilicon,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMI\">SMIC</a>The impact of the US \"entity list\" and the chain reaction triggered by the global chip shortage have made it increasingly difficult for Chinese companies to purchase US semiconductor products, and the demand for \"domestic substitution\" has become stronger.</p><p>On June 29, 2020, due to the further upgrade of the US \"Export Administration Regulations\" and the continuous adjustment of the members of the entity list, Intel \"temporarily suspended\" the supply of chips to Inspur Group.</p><p>Although Inspur subsequently announced on July 3 that Intel had resumed supplying it, one is the world's largest supplier of PC and cloud service x86 architecture chips, and the other is China's largest server manufacturer. The temporary supply cut-off crisis between the two companies has reminded the entire Chinese cloud computing and semiconductor industries:<b>As the demand for computing power becomes stronger and stronger, China needs to mass-produce fully independent and controllable domestic GPU and server chip products.</b>This highlights that \"domestic substitution\" is becoming the biggest driving force for the development of China's semiconductor industry.</p><p><b>In addition, as the world's largest chip sales country, China has not had a chip giant like \"Nvidia\", and the big market has not produced a matching large company.</b>According to statistics from IC Insight, the global semiconductor market in 2020 will be US $395.7 billion, of which the mainland China market will be US $43.4 billion, making it the world's largest market, accounting for 36.24% of the global share. However, the total output value of semiconductor companies based in mainland China in 2020 was only US $8.3 billion, accounting for only 5.9% of the market size.</p><p><b>Who can cut off a corner of such a huge cake? When will the semiconductor industry create \"China Nvidia\"?</b></p><p><h2>Missed Golden Age</h2>GPU graphics processor, also known as display chip and vision processor, was originally proposed by Nvidia in 1999. It is a microprocessor dedicated to running graphics operations on personal computers, workstations, game consoles and mobile devices (smartphones, tablets, VR devices).</p><p>As the parallel computing advantages of GPU are gradually tapped, the application fields of GPU have expanded from graphics processing to high-performance computing, and gradually become the most mature and widely used general-purpose chip for Al computing. In June 2020, Nvidia launched the A100 Tensor Core GPU based on the Ampere architecture, becoming the world's most powerful AI chip.</p><p>From the perspective of application terminals, GPUs can be divided into PC-side GPUs, server GPUs and mobile GPUs, corresponding to three architectures, namely, independent graphics cards composed of dedicated circuit boards and components, shared integrated graphics cards, and mobile GPUs and other chips or modules are packaged together into highly integrated SoCs-used in multiple application scenarios including mobile phones, automotive electronics, and AI.</p><p><b>since<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>After the acquisition of Canadian GPU manufacturer ATI in 2006, in the field of PC and server GPUs, the global GPU market is currently monopolized by the \"American chip giants\"-Intel, AMD and Nvidia. Intel has obvious advantages in the integrated GPU market, while Nvidia and AMD are separated in the independent GPU market.</b></p><p>According to data from research firm Jon Peddie Research, in the first quarter of 2021, in the global PC-side GPU market, Intel (Intel) topped the list with a market share of 68%, AMD and Nvidia with 17% and 14% respectively, and the total share of the three companies is close to 100%; In the global independent GPU field, Nvidia is the leader in the data center GPU market, accounting for 81% of the market share, with a leading edge, while AMD ranks second with a 19% share.</p><p>In 2019 alone, Nvidia occupied 90% of China's AI training chip market with its V100 series and other products, firmly grasping China's huge AI chip sales market.</p><p>One of the core reasons why Nvidia can continue to be the \"chip overlord\" lies in its \"light design pattern.\" Nvidia does not engage in chip manufacturing and packaging, but is handed over to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>After the OEM is completed, it enjoys the dividends of advanced manufacturing technology such as 7nm. According to the financial report, between 2016 and 2021, Nvidia's revenue increased by 233%, and its operating profit doubled to US $4.5 billion. In the three months to May this year, sales soared 84% year-on-year, and gross profit margin reached 64%.</p><p><b>In fact, China entered the field of GPU chip design very early, but the results were not satisfactory.</b></p><p><b>Since the 1970s, China began to introduce semiconductor and integrated circuit technology and production lines. But the result is that we have fallen into the a vicious circle of \"introducing from generation to generation and lagging behind from generation to generation\", coupled with the adverse impact of the \"Hanxin No. 1\" fake chip incident on society, China's \"independent processor\" has suffered serious setbacks, and China has actively promoted WTO globalization and other factors, thus missing the golden period of the development of the global semiconductor industry, and downstream companies can only \"make it better than buy\".</b></p><p>It was not until 2000, marked by the promulgation of the national \"Document No. 18\", that China's semiconductors gradually formed an industrial organization form of \"separation of the three industries\" of design, manufacturing, packaging and testing, and introduced \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688981\">SMIC</a>A number of chip manufacturing (Foundry) companies represented by \"have been built and put into production in China, and their technical level has been rapidly improved.</p><p>At present, companies such as Jingjiawei, Tianshu Zhixin, Denglin Technology, Biren Technology, Suiyuan Technology, Cambrian, and Muxi Integrated Circuit are all gathering in the general processor track.</p><p>In 2014, \"Jingjiawei\" (300474. SH), which started as a military aircraft graphics display control module, successfully developed the military GPU chip JM5400, and then successfully developed the second-generation GPU chip JM7200 with a 28nm process technology in 2018. Jingjiawei has moved from military customization to general-purpose GPUs, becoming the only company in the world and the only company in China to achieve commercial mass production of independent GPUs.</p><p>In addition to Jingjiawei, in March 2021, Tianshu Zhixin released the first GPGPU (General Purpose Graphics Processor) manufactured by a 7-nanometer process in China, which removes 30% of the graphics rendering part of the traditional GPU and is only used to deal with artificial intelligence (AI)) Born of application; In June this year, Suiyuan Technology released China's largest AI computing chip \"Suisi 2.0\" AI chip, the \"Yunsui T20\" training accelerator card based on Suisi 2.0 and the \"Yunsui T21\" training OAM module.</p><p>However, it is worth noting that the performance of the JM7200 chip developed by Jingjiawei is only equivalent to the level of Nvidia GTX 640 in 2012, which is difficult to meet the application needs of enterprise customers. Even Suiyuan Technology's \"Suisi 2.0\" AI chip is only tied with Nvidia's A100. Two of the six items tested by Benchmark significantly surpassed the performance of Nvidia's A100. (For details, see the previous article of Titanium Media App: \"Suiyuan Technology releases China's largest AI computing chip to accelerate the implementation of three major business directions\")</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15cb73d2787595547a9ed01926f4dfbe\" tg-width=\"570\" tg-height=\"1926\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>The reason behind this is mainly due to the late start of China's semiconductor industry, the high technical threshold of chips, high cost elasticity, and high concentration of industries, which makes the overall R&D investment, technology, and talents of Chinese GPU chip companies lag behind foreign countries, thus improving product performance and technology There is still a gap with chip giants, and it is still difficult for downstream companies to escape from the situation of the \"American Chip Big Three\".</b></p><p>Taking R&D investment as an example, in the ten years from 2011 to 2020, Jingjiawei's total R&D investment expenses were RMB 627 million, while Nvidia's R&D investment in 2020 reached US $3.924 billion, or approximately RMB 25.323 billion. In the past ten years, Nvidia has invested more than 120 billion yuan, a difference of more than 190 times.</p><p>In terms of talents, as of the first half of 2021, the number of Nvidia employees is as high as 18,975, and the total number of Jingjiawei employees is 1,174, far lower than the 2,000 employees of AMD's Shanghai R&D center.</p><p>\"The AI chip and GPU chip market is quite special. Unlike traditional dedicated processors, the technology is very complex. It requires a large amount of data and needs to be combined with specific algorithms before it can be put into market use.\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>Xie Zhonghui, deputy general manager of China, said in an exclusive interview with Titanium Media App in April this year that if a company wants to make its first AI chip solid, it usually takes more than two or three years.</p><p>In his view, chip semiconductor itself is an industry with large investment, long cycle, and slow results. Complete localization of technology requires long-term and sustained accumulation of capital, talent, and technology. It is difficult to use the Internet thinking of \"spending money and seeing returns\" to deal with.</p><p><b>In addition, the software and hardware ecosystem combined with CUDA technology is another important reason for the large gap between domestic chip companies and Nvidia.</b></p><p>In 2006, Nvidia released the parallel computing platform CUDA, which contains a series of development tools. Only by installing and using this platform can complex parallel computing be performed. Anyone who owns a laptop equipped with Nvidia GPU can use CUDA to perform scientific and convenient programming calculations, such as deep learning, AI algorithms, etc., and develop related software. Over the past ten years or so, NVIDIA has persistently promoted CUDA, making more government-level and enterprise-level software developed based on this platform, combining NVIDIA's self-developed GPU hardware with CUDA software to efficiently implement applications.</p><p>In contrast, there is currently no series of platforms in China that are deeply bound to CUDA and Nvidia's hardware, and the gap in technical barriers is very obvious. Most domestic GPU manufacturers adopt strategies that are compatible with the CUDA open source framework, such as Tianshu Zhixin, Denglin, etc., and are preparing to cultivate their own software ecosystem on this basis.</p><p>\"In the short term, it is easier to develop domestic GPUs compatible with CUDA. After all, writing operators is a labor-intensive industry. If users migrate, 100% migration is required, and the entire set of code must run on your chip. If the amount of code is small, the need There are not so many operators, and the difficulty is relatively low. But in the long run, it is still necessary to get rid of the idea of compatibility and develop its own core technology.\"</p><p>However, there are also companies that choose not to be compatible with the CUDA ecosystem. For example, Suiyuan Technology, which makes both AI training and inference chips, has comprehensively upgraded its \"Yusuan TopsRider\" software platform and the new \"Yunsui Cluster\" this year, hoping to have ecological dominance.</p><p><b>To sum up, these domestic chip companies that benchmark Nvidia are still in the initial stage of development. The industrialization and marketization capabilities of AI chip technology are weak, and there is no actual large-scale use. There is still a long way to go to surpass or replace \"China Nvidia\".</b></p><p>Yan Guihai, CEO of Zhongke Yushu, said in an interview with Titanium Media App that although China's demand side is still the largest single market in the world and its growth rate is among the best, the \"demand side\" is still very strong, but in terms of high-end chips, whether it is design or There is still a big gap in manufacturing, and the \"supply side\" is not strong enough. He pointed out that the quality of the supply side depends not only on one enterprise, but on the capabilities of the entire industry chain. It is still unrealistic to build such a large-scale and comprehensive leading enterprise in the short term.</p><p>Founded in 2018, Zhongke Yushu is a developer of dedicated computing architecture. It was incubated from the State Key Laboratory of Computer Architecture, Institute of Computing Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Today, the company's valuation has exceeded 1 billion yuan. On July 27 this year, Zhongke Yushu completed hundreds of millions of yuan in Series A financing, led by Huatai Innovation, followed by Lingjun Investment and old shareholder Guoxin Xichuang.</p><p>Huang Liming, partner of Hillhouse and head of software and hard technology at Hillhouse Venture Capital, said in an exclusive interview with Titanium Media App that although the GPU market has broad prospects, China<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V03.SI\">Startups</a>It is difficult to make it directly into \"Nvidia\". In addition to the technical difficulty, it must be done in combination with strong applications-involving software system and software ecology, which is extremely demanding for startups.</p><p>Hillhouse launched the independent VC brand Hillhouse Venture Capital in February 2020. Since then, it has invested in the field of chip semiconductors, including semiconductor IP company Xinyaohui, EDA manufacturer Xinhuazhang, GPU platform Biren Technology, DPU company Nebula Zhilian, plus Tianke Heda in silicon carbide, Minxin Semiconductor in optical chip field, and mobile phone baseband Xingsi Semiconductor, etc.</p><p>Huang Liming emphasized that Hillhouse judges that there will not be many companies that can run out in this direction, whether overseas or domestic.</p><p><h2>The tuyere has arrived</h2>\"Let's not worry about how to replace Nvidia now. The road is step by step. I think first of all, China must have domestic AI chips, general-purpose GPUs, FPGAs and other underlying computing power. As long as there is domestic market demand, we must have many opportunities.\" Zhang Gaonan, managing partner of Huaying Capital, told Titanium Media App that the domestic semiconductor industry has arrived, and China is now equipped with \"the right time, the right location, and the right people\" to enter the GPU market.</p><p>Zhang Gaonan gave an example,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688111\">Kingsoft Office</a>Although products are inferior to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>office suite, but the market has given a market value of more than 110 billion yuan. One of the important reasons behind it is that China must have a domestic office, and the same principle applies to the domestic GPU market.</p><p>Huaying Capital is one of the earliest private equity funds in China to deploy mobile Internet and cultural industries. In recent years, the To B field has also become the key investment field of Huaying Capital. At present, Huaying Capital has invested in more than 30 projects in the To B field, with a total investment of over 700 million yuan, which is built by Zhang Gaonan, a technical investor. In the fields related to data middle platform and underlying computing power, Huaying Capital has invested in projects such as Biren Technology, Tianyun Big Data, and Zhongke Haiwei.</p><p>In fact, as a general platform spanning visual computing and AI computing, GPU has a huge market space.<b>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601555\">Soochow Securities</a>It is estimated that by 2027, the market space for domestic substitution in the GPU field will exceed US $34.1 billion. In addition to the existing game market, there is room for further development in industrial, medical, military aerospace and other directions.</b></p><p>In March of this year, \"Biren Technology\", a general-purpose smart chip designer co-founded by Zhang Wen, the former president of SenseTime, completed the B round of financing. Since its establishment in September 2019, the company's total financing amount has exceeded 4.7 billion yuan. Investors include Hillhouse Venture Capital, Huaying Capital,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601318\">China Ping An</a>, China Merchants Capital, BAI Capital, Guosheng Group National Reform Fund, etc., with a valuation of more than 10 billion yuan, one of the \"unicorn\" companies with the fastest growth momentum in the semiconductor industry.</p><p><b>In addition to Biren, companies that have entered the GPU field such as Muxi Integrated Circuit and Moore Thread have also completed financing.</b></p><p>On August 25, GPU manufacturer Muxi Integrated Circuit announced the completion of a RMB 1 billion Series A financing. The founders Chen Weiliang and Yang Jian are all from the American chip giant AMD. Investors include China State-owned Enterprise Structural Adjustment Fund Co., Ltd.,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00810\">China Internet Investment</a>Fund, Jingwei China, Holly Capital, Sequoia China, Lightspeed China, Guochuang Zhongding, Smart Internet Industry Fund, Shanghai Science and Technology Innovation Fund, Lenovo Venture Capital, etc.; The Moore Thread, established in 2020, claims to have completed two rounds of multi-billion-yuan financing within 100 days. The team members are mainly from Nvidia, and investors include Shenzhen Venture Capital and Sequoia Capital<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHN\">China Fund</a>, China Merchants Venture Capital, ByteDance, Pony.ai, Wuyuan Capital, etc.</p><p><b>However, an interesting phenomenon is that the above three start-ups, Biren, Muxi, and Moore Thread, are veritable \"PPT financing core manufacturing\", and none of them completed the tape-out (assembly line trial production) of the first chip at the time of financing.</b></p><p>Why are market investors willing to open their wallets to this? Several investors said in an interview with Titanium Media App that these projects can receive a large amount of capital support because of the early stage of investment. The main focus is on the team and the track: the AI chip track has arrived, and the senior management team is also From the \"American Chip Big Three\".</p><p>\"I think these companies need to be given opportunities and patience. It is impossible for 500 people to write PPT. Manufacturing chips is a matter of 5 to 10 years. The reason why we are willing to invest is not speculation or deception. I think, investing in The semiconductor track itself is risky, requires long-term plans, and requires strong enough risk-taking ability, which is completely different from investing in Internet model innovation.\" The above-mentioned investor told Titanium Media App.</p><p>However, some investors in the semiconductor industry pointed out that the above-mentioned investment projects essentially hope that the market value will be high and the rate of return will be higher. Especially in the \"chip fever\" environment, venture capital institutions need to constantly look for these GPU and AI chip companies in the middle and early stages. Targets, hoping to get a higher return from it.</p><p>In addition, in this wave of GPU entrepreneurship, the founding team developed the \"American Chip Big Three\". For example, Zheng Jinshan, chief scientist of Tianshu Zhixin, was the chief technical expert of AMD; Mu Xi's founding team is mainly from AMD. CEO Chen Weiliang once served as senior director of graphics research and development at AMD, and CTO Yang Jian once served as AMD Fellow (academician); Li Xinrong, the newly appointed co-CEO of Biren Technology, once served as the global vice president of AMD, and Chen Wenzhong, senior vice president of Biren Technology, also served in AMD.</p><p>In this regard, Zhang Gaonan said that AMD is the top two chip giants in the GPU field. The core research and development of GPUs is in Shanghai, while the research and development of graphics rendering is in the United States. Companies can go to the executives of AMD and Nvidia to communicate. The final choice must be the leader in the semiconductor industry.</p><p>Yan Guihai believes that in subdividing emerging tracks, relying on the \"potential energy\" of demand-side applications, Chinese chip companies concentrate their superior forces, base themselves on serving local companies, and highlight the agility of development. They have the opportunity to surpass \"Nvidia\" in terms of product definition and solution iteration cycle. These chip giants.<b>He predicts that a number of domestic GPU and DPU companies with leading technologies will emerge within 10 years.</b></p><p>\"Among the five links of the chip industry: design, manufacturing, packaging and testing, materials, and EDA, the most relevant to application is design, and our biggest advantage lies in application, so we have a great opportunity to make a breakthrough in the\" design \"link, and then gradually expand the victory territory from point to area. The so-called \"overtaking in corners\" is still a catch-up strategy. It is more likely to occupy new strategic commanding heights by cutting into a new track facing the future and accelerating with all your might. It is hoped that within 10 years, a group of enterprises with leading technology, solid products and strategic awareness will emerge. \" Yan Guihai told Titanium Media App.</p><p>Zhang Wen, founder of Biren Technology, said that the capability requirements for chip companies have been upgraded from product level to system level and ecological level. In no more than 5 years, China has caught up with or even led the international level in the field of AI chip design. He emphasized that surpassing Nvidia requires redefining a product and a market.</p><p><h2>The tens of billions of DPU chip market is \"exploding\"</h2>In Huang Renxun's view, the data processing unit (DPU) responsible for transmitting and processing data in the data center is forming the \"three pillars of future computing\" together with CPU and GPU. When Chinese chip companies focus on GPUs, Nvidia has set its sights on the two new markets of CPU and DPU.</p><p>In September 2020, Nvidia announced that it planned to acquire British chip designer Arm from a Japanese software group for US $40 billion, which is expected to write the largest merger and acquisition in the semiconductor industry. However, this deal is controversial and is still awaiting approval from governments such as the European Union, Britain, the United States and China. But in April 2021, Nvidia announced its entry into the data center CPU market and released the Grace CPU processor, which is what Huang Renxun said at the beginning of this article. (For details, see the previous article of Titanium Media App: \"The British government intervenes, Nvidia's US $40 billion acquisition of Arm transaction changes\")</p><p>In addition to CPU and GPU, Nvidia is also deploying DPU. In 2019, Nvidia announced that it would acquire Israeli network chip manufacturer Mellanox for US $6.9 billion in all-cash, and eventually won it. As for this largest acquisition in Nvidia's history, what Huang Renxun values most is Milosi's unique ability in data center technology and other aspects.<b>In October 2020, NVIDIA launched the DPU for the first time-NVIDIA BlueField series data processors.</b></p><p>Fundamentally, on the one hand, DPU is more flexible and secure, and more importantly, DPU can liberate the computing power of CPU, release the load of server, significantly reduce the overall cost with low power consumption, and even improve the performance of AI and machine learning applications.</p><p>According to IDC statistics, the global demand for computing power will double every 3.5 months, far exceeding the current growth rate of computing power. Driven by this, global computing, storage and network infrastructure are also undergoing fundamental changes: some workloads with excessive data volume occupy too much CPU resources, and various \"X\" PU chips that cooperate with them have emerged as the times require. In addition to chips such as GPU and FPGA, DPU is the next \"X\" PU.</p><p>People in the industry have made an image metaphor about this. The network is like building a road. In the past 1G and 10G era, the road was not wide enough, and there were more and more cars. In order to balance the pressure, we have increased traffic lights and invested more traffic police to coordinate resources higher. This has improved the original efficiency a lot, but it is still not enough. We must expand the road first, which means the bandwidth is increased, but the road has changed from 2 to 4. It will still be blocked only by traffic lights and limited traffic police, but we can't increase the traffic police indefinitely, which requires the road to be smarter and help solve the congestion.</p><p>Zhang Gaonan pointed out that a large amount of network management is in the CPU, occupying container capabilities, while DPU provides space capabilities for server intelligence. A large amount of virtualization space can increase computing power requirements.</p><p><b>With 2020, the reputation of DPUs surpasses the launch of infrastructure processors (IPUs) and SmartNICs launched by rival Intel, and every company eyeing the data center business needs a piece of this field. DPU has become a new track for major chip giants and start-up companies to compete for research and development. Domestic DPUs are now almost in a state of blooming. Sequoia, Hillhouse Ventures, CDH, and SoftBank China have all begun to enter the market.</b></p><p>In April this year, Tianyancha data showed that domestic DPU chip supplier \"Yunbao Intelligent\" completed<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>Investment, Sequoia Capital, Yaotu Capital, etc. joint angel round financing; At the end of May, Xinqiyuan completed hundreds of millions of yuan in Pre-A round financing, with investors including SoftBank China, Pudong Science and Technology Group, etc.; On July 27, DPU chip developer \"Zhongke Yushu\" completed hundreds of millions of yuan in Series A financing led by Huatai Innovation; On August 30, DPU chip developer Nebula Zhilian announced the completion of hundreds of millions of yuan in angel round financing, led by Hillhouse Venture Capital, with CDH VGC and Walden International China Fund participating in the investment; At the beginning of September, IDG Capital launched the \"Yunmai Xinlian\" angel round financing project.</p><p>\"DPU may become the third computing power chip after CPU and GPU, but from a structural point of view, DPU will be more heterogeneous and more dedicated.\" Yan Guihai said in an interview with Titanium Media App and others that DPU The background is the demand for computing delay, data security, and resource virtualization brought about by the end-edge-cloud integration trend caused by the data explosion in the intelligent era. The CPU is overwhelmed by these non-business loads, and an ideal object is urgently needed to share these computational loads.</p><p><b>Toubao Research Institute predicts that China's DPU market size is expected to reach US $3.74 billion in 2025. The global DPU market size is expected to reach US $13.57 billion in 2025.</b>At the same time, the report also pointed out that data circulation is the largest application market of DPU, among which bare metal services have a rigid demand for DPU. The application of DPU in the telecom market is mainly in edge computing scenarios, with a penetration rate of less than 5%. DPUs for the field of intelligent driving are still in the exploratory stage, and it is expected that DPUs will be deployed in the field of intelligent driving in 2023.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7170c585dab44018726df81a32c63d62\" tg-width=\"808\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>China's DPU market size, forecast from 2020 to 2025, source: Toubao Research Institute</p><p>Yan Guihai pointed out that the performance of CPU increased from 30% per year 5-10 years ago to less than 3% per year three years ago. The network bandwidth still increases by about 35% every year.</p><p>With<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600918\">Zhongtai Securities</a>For example, the challenge encountered by the company at that time was that the compliance inspection of transaction orders was too slow and the transaction efficiency needed to be improved. Therefore, Zhongke Yushu, Zhongtai Securities and Shanghai Stock Exchange Technology Co., Ltd. jointly developed a set of extremely fast risk control system solutions to speed up this process. Zhongke Yushu has successively developed multiple sets of products and solutions such as ultra-low latency smart network cards and data computing accelerator cards, mainly for high bandwidth, low latency, data-intensive and other scenarios. The company has achieved quarterly revenue of tens of millions this year. Zhongke Yushu's next-generation DPU chip is expected to be designed by the end of 2021 and is expected to process up to 200G network bandwidth data.</p><p><b>However, although the DPU market is hot, the concept is newer, there are more unknowns, and the investment risk will be greater.</b></p><p>Lu Sheng, CEO of Xinqiyuan, pointed out that the current barriers to the DPU segmentation track are still relatively high. In addition to technical barriers, there are also market barriers, which require customers to continuously iterate, especially in conjunction with the continuous upgrade of open source software to adapt to customers. Rapidly changing software and hardware environment. Therefore, before investing, VC (venture capital) must recognize the track and have enough patience. He emphasized that investors need to constantly observe the market and adjust their judgments, and no one can predict the future development prospects of DPU now.</p><p>Some media also believe that when Nvidia enters the newly opened CPU and DPU battlefield, it may be good for Chinese GPU manufacturers, especially when Nvidia still spends a lot of energy on the US $40 billion acquisition of British chip designer Arm. For GPU companies, it may be an opportunity to catch up.</p><p>As Zhang Gaonan told Titanium Media App, \"Logically speaking, things with low thresholds are usually not scarce. (Chip semiconductor track) Some things are difficult and require long-term investment. Although they are high-risk, but someone has to do it. This is a long-term investment that is really beneficial to the country. In fact, investment should be encouraged. Otherwise, if no one does these difficult things that require long-term investment, you will never get up to the next level.\"</p><p>Zhang Gaonan emphasized that although venture capital must pursue returns, he believes that when the entire capital allocation is reasonable, taking part of the start-ups that invest in the semiconductor track not only has strong social significance, but also some kind of long-term value investment. important manifestation.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01e0bbbfdbdc6f8f2f7ce512582f7c3e","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2166195813","content_text":"英伟达CEO黄仁勋（图片来源：Nvidia官网）\n“我即将展示的产品，融合了新的GPU加速计算能力，拥有Mellanox高性能网络，补足我们最后一块拼图的产品是——全球首款专为TB级数据中心加速计算而设计的CPU处理器，它的秘密代号是Grace。”\n这是2021年4月英伟达（NVIDIA）CEO黄仁勋在GTC峰会演讲中的一段话。然而，让人意想不到的是，直到8月12日英伟达自曝后人们才知道，这段不足100字、14秒的演讲内容竟然不是黄仁勋本人出镜，而是使用了合成的“数字替身”，即利用英伟达GPU处理器与Omniverse软件平台共同形成的“虚拟黄仁勋”形象。\n这一事件引发了人们对虚拟现实、元宇宙、AI换脸等技术和概念的激烈讨论，同时也让“英伟达”这家美国芯片霸主从半导体行业“出圈”，走入了大众视野。\n自1993年成立至今，在黄仁勋的带领下，英伟达成功创造且引领了GPU（图形处理器）芯片这一类别，产品覆盖整个PC设备GPU至服务器GPU市场。过去五年内，英伟达市值从310亿美元增长到5050亿美元，跻身成为全球第七大半导体供应商，是人工智能（AI）芯片领域炙手可热的明星企业。\n与此同时，在英伟达市值超过英特尔之后，国内半导体市场看到了GPU、AI芯片赛道更大的市场机会，景嘉微、天数智芯、登临科技、壁仞科技、燧原科技、寒武纪、沐曦集成电路等企业均在通用处理器这一赛道中集聚。\n近两年，国内半导体产业发生着转变。由于华为海思、中芯国际等企业受美方“实体清单”影响，以及全球芯片短缺引发的连锁反应，使得中国企业愈加难采购到美国半导体产品，对于“国产替代”需求愈加强烈。\n2020年6月29日，由于美国《出口管理条例》再升级，实体清单企业成员在不断调整，英特尔“临时性暂停”对浪潮集团的芯片供货。\n尽管随后在7月3日，浪潮方面宣布英特尔已恢复对其供货，但一家是全球最大的PC、云服务x86架构芯片供应商，另一方是中国最大的服务器厂商，两家公司之间的临时断供危机，为整个中国云计算、半导体行业提了一个醒：随着算力需求越来越强烈，中国需要大规模生产全面自主可控的国产GPU、服务器芯片产品。从而凸显了“国产替代”正成为中国半导体行业发展的最大驱动力。\n另外，作为全球芯片销量大国，中国却没有出现一家“英伟达”这样的芯片巨头，大市场并没有产生与之匹配的大公司。根据IC Insight的统计显示，2020年全球半导体市场规模为3957亿美元，其中，中国大陆市场规模是434亿美元，为全球最大市场，占全球比例达到36.24%。然而，总部位于中国大陆的半导体公司2020年总产值仅为83亿美元，仅占市场规模的5.9%。\n偌大的蛋糕，究竟谁能切下一角？半导体产业何时才能造出“中国英伟达”？\n错失黄金时代\nGPU图形处理器又被称为显示芯片、视觉处理器，最初于1999年由英伟达提出，是个人电脑、工作站、游戏主机以及移动设备（智能手机、平板电脑、VR设备）上专门运行绘图运算的微处理器。\n随着GPU的并行计算优势被逐步挖掘，GPU的应用领域从图形处理扩展到高性能计算，逐步成为Al计算最成熟、应用最广泛的通用型芯片。2020年6月，英伟达推出基于安培（Ampere）架构的A100 Tensor Core GPU，成为全球性能最强的AI芯片。\n以应用终端角度分类，GPU可分为PC端GPU、服务器GPU和移动端GPU，对应三种架构，即与专用电路板及组件组成的独立显卡，共享集成显卡，以及移动端GPU与其他芯片或模块一起封装成高集成度的SoC——应用于手机、汽车电子、AI在内的多个应用场景。\n自从AMD在2006年收购加拿大GPU厂商ATI之后，目前，在PC及服务器GPU领域，全球GPU市场呈现“美国芯片三巨头”——英特尔、AMD和英伟达垄断的局面。集成GPU市场英特尔优势明显，独立GPU市场英伟达和AMD两强割据。\n根据研究机构Jon Peddie Research的数据显示，2021年第一季度，全球PC端GPU市场中，英特尔（Intel）以68%市场份额位居榜首，AMD和英伟达分别为17%和14%，三家共计份额接近100%；全球独立GPU领域中，英伟达是数据中心GPU市场领导者，占据81%的市场份额，拥有领先优势，AMD则以占比19%位居第二。\n仅2019年，英伟达凭借V100系列等产品，占据了中国AI训练芯片市场90%份额，牢牢掌握着中国这一庞大的AI芯片销售市场。\n英伟达能持续作为“芯片霸主”地位的核心原因之一在于其“轻设计模式”。英伟达不做芯片制造和封装，交由台积电代工完成，自身享受7nm等先进制程工艺技术红利。根据财报显示，2016年至2021年期间，英伟达收入增长了233%，营业利润翻了一番，达到45亿美元。在截至今年5月的三个月内，销售额同比猛增84%，毛利率则达到了64%。\n事实上，中国很早就进入了GPU芯片设计领域，但结果并不如意。\n从20世纪70年代开始，中国开始引进半导体与集成电路技术和生产线。但结果却是陷入了“代代引进、代代落后”的恶性循环，加上“汉芯一号”假芯片事件给社会带来的不良影响，让中国的“自主处理器”遭受严重挫败，以及中国积极推动WTO全球化等因素，从而错失了全球半导体产业发展的黄金时期，下游企业只能“造不如买”。\n到2000年，以国家“18号文件”出台为标志，中国半导体才逐渐形成设计、制造、封装测试“三业分离”的产业组织形态，引进以“中芯国际”为代表的一批芯片制造（Foundry）企业在华建设、投产，技术水平也因此得到快速提升。\n目前，景嘉微、天数智芯、登临科技、壁仞科技、燧原科技、寒武纪、沐曦集成电路等企业均在通用处理器这一赛道中集聚。\n2014年，以军机图形显示控制模块起家的“景嘉微”（300474.SH）成功研制出军用GPU芯片JM5400，随后在2018年成功研发出28nm制程工艺的第二代GPU芯片JM7200。景嘉微从军用定制走向通用GPU，成为全球少数、国内唯一实现独立GPU商用量产的公司。\n除景嘉微外，2021年3月天数智芯发布了国内首颗7纳米工艺制造的GPGPU（通用图形处理器），即去掉了传统GPU 30%的图形渲染部分，只为处理人工智能（AI）应用而生；燧原科技则在今年6月发布了迄今中国最大的AI计算芯片“邃思2.0”AI芯片、基于邃思2.0的“云燧T20”训练加速卡和“云燧T21”训练OAM模组。\n但值得注意的是，景嘉微研发的JM7200芯片，性能只相当于2012年英伟达GTX 640水平，难以满足企业客户的应用需求。即便燧原科技的“邃思2.0”AI芯片，也仅和英伟达的A100达成平手，Benchmark测试的6个项目中有2项大幅超越了英伟达A100的性能表现。（详见钛媒体App前文：《燧原科技发布中国最大的AI计算芯片，加速推进三大业务方向落地》）\n\n背后的原因，主要由于中国半导体产业起步晚，芯片的技术门槛高、成本弹性大、产业高度集中，使得中国GPU芯片企业的整体研发投入、技术、人才都滞后于国外，从而在产品性能和技术上依然和芯片巨头有差距，下游企业依然难以脱离“美国芯片三巨头”的境地。\n以研发投入为例，2011年至2020年的十年间，景嘉微的研发投入费用总额为人民币6.27亿元，而英伟达2020年这一年的研发投入就达到39.24亿美元，约合人民币253.23亿元，十年间英伟达总计投入超过1200亿元人民币，两者相差超190倍。\n在人才方面，截至2021年上半年，英伟达员工人数高达18975人，景嘉微总员工人数为1174人，远低于AMD在上海研发中心的2000名员工。\n“AI芯片、GPU芯片市场比较特殊，跟传统的专用处理器不一样，技术十分复杂。它需要大量的数据，需要和特定的算法结合，才能够付诸市场运用。”新思科技中国副总经理谢仲辉在今年4月接受钛媒体App独家专访时表示，如果企业想把首颗AI芯片做扎实，通常需要两三年以上。\n在他看来，芯片半导体本身是一个投入大、周期长、见效慢的行业，技术完全国产化需要长期持续的资金、人才和技术积累，很难用“砸金钱见回报”这种互联网思维来处理。\n此外，结合CUDA技术的软硬件生态，也是国内芯片企业与英伟达形成较大差距的另一重要原因。\n2006年，英伟达就发布了并行计算平台CUDA，其中包含一系列开发工具，只有安装使用这个平台才能够进行复杂的并行计算，任何人只要拥有一台配有英伟达GPU的笔记本电脑，就可以利用CUDA可以进行科学、便捷编程计算，比如深度学习、AI算法等，开发相关软件。过去十多年，英伟达坚持不懈地推广CUDA，使更多政企级类型软件都基于该平台开发，将英伟达自研GPU硬件与CUDA软件相结合，高效实现应用落地。\n相比之下，目前国内却没有一个类似CUDA和英伟达硬件深度绑定的系列平台，技术壁垒差距十分明显。大部分国产GPU厂商均采取兼容CUDA开源框架的策略，如天数智芯、登临等，准备在此基础上培育自己的软件生态。\n“短期来看，国产GPU兼容CUDA更容易发展，毕竟写算子是人力密集型行业，用户迁移的话是需要100%迁移、整套代码都要在你的片上跑，如果代码量很小，需要的算子不那么多，难度就比较低。但是长期来看，还是要摆脱兼容思路，发展自有的核心技术。”芯片行业内人士表示，选择兼容主要是确保已有软件依然可用，未来会不断改进自家平台，使其更加匹配自己的芯片，从而吸引开发者迁移。\n但也有企业选择不兼容CUDA生态，比如同时做AI训练和推理芯片的燧原科技，今年全面升级了其“驭算TopsRider”软件平台以及全新的“云燧集群”，希望能拥有生态主导权。\n总结来看，对标英伟达的这些国内芯片企业依然处在发展的初级阶段，AI芯片技术的产业化、市场化能力较弱，没有产生实际的大规模使用，距离超越或取代“中国英伟达”仍然有很长的路要走。\n中科驭数CEO鄢贵海在接受钛媒体App采访时表示，虽然目前中国需求侧虽然还是全球最大的单一市场，增速也名列前茅，“需求侧”还是很强劲的，但在高端芯片方面无论是设计还是制造还有不小差距，“供给侧”不够强大。他指出，供给侧的优劣不仅取决于一家企业，而是全产业链能力。短期内要想打造出这样大体量和全面引领性的企业还是不太现实的。\n中科驭数成立于2018年，是一家专用计算架构研发商，孵化自中科院计算所的计算机体系结构国家重点实验室，如今公司估值已超10亿元。今年7月27日，中科驭数完成数亿元A轮融资，由华泰创新领投，灵均投资以及老股东国新思创跟投。\n高瓴合伙人、高瓴创投软件与硬科技负责人黄立明在接受钛媒体App的独家专访时表示，虽然GPU市场前景广阔，但中国创业公司很难直接做成“英伟达”。除了技术难度外，还要结合很强的应用来做——涉及到软件系统软件生态，这对创业公司来说要求是极高的。\n高瓴于2020年2月推出独立VC品牌高瓴创投，此后其对芯片半导体领域进行投资入局，其中包括半导体IP企业芯耀辉、EDA厂商芯华章，GPU平台壁仞科技、DPU公司星云智联，加上碳化硅方面的天科合达、光芯片领域的敏芯半导体、以及手机基带星思半导体等。\n黄立明强调，能在这个方向跑出来的公司，无论海外还是国内，高瓴判断最终都不会有很多。\n风口已至\n“我们现在先不纠结于怎么去取代英伟达，路都是一步一步走的。我觉得首先中国得有国产AI芯片、通用GPU、FPGA等底层算力。只要国内有市场需求，我们一定有很多机会。”华映资本主管合伙人章高男对钛媒体App表示，国内半导体产业风口已至，中国现在切入GPU市场是“天时、地利、人和”皆备，尤其半导体和下一代AI技术都是中国必须突围的领域。\n章高男举了一个例子，金山办公产品虽然逊于微软Office套件，但市场给出1100多亿元市值，背后重要原因之一是，中国必须得有国产office，同样道理也适用于国产的GPU市场。\n华映资本是国内最早布局移动互联网和文化产业的私募股权基金之一，近几年To B领域也成为华映资本重点关注的投资领域。目前华映资本在To B领域投资的30余个项目，投资总额超7亿元生态，由技术型投资人章高男负责搭建。在数据中台及底层算力相关领域，华映资本投资布局了壁仞科技、天云大数据，中科海微等项目。\n实际上，作为横跨视觉计算和AI计算的通用平台，GPU拥有巨大的市场空间。据东吴证券测算，预计到2027年，GPU领域国产替代的市场空间规模超过341亿美元。除了既有的游戏市场，在工业、医疗、军事航天等方向都有进一步的发挥空间。\n今年3月，原商汤科技总裁张文联合创立的通用智能芯片设计商“壁仞科技”完成了B轮融资。2019年9月成立以来，公司总融资额超47亿元人民币，投资方包括高瓴创投、华映资本、中国平安、招商局资本、BAI资本、国盛集团国改基金等，估值已超过100亿元，成长半导体行业势头最为迅猛的“独角兽”企业之一。\n除壁仞外，沐曦集成电路、摩尔线程等入局GPU领域的企业也都完成了融资。\n8月25日，GPU厂商沐曦集成电路宣布完成10亿元人民币的A轮融资，创始人陈维良、杨建等均来自美国芯片巨头AMD，投资方包括中国国有企业结构调整基金股份有限公司、中国互联网投资基金、经纬中国、和利资本、红杉中国、光速中国、国创中鼎、智慧互联产业基金、上海科创基金、联想创投等；而2020年成立的摩尔线程，宣称100天内就完成了两轮数十亿元融资，团队成员主要来自英伟达，投资方包括深创投、红杉资本中国基金、招商局创投、字节跳动、小马智行、五源资本等。\n不过，一个有趣的现象是，壁仞、沐曦、摩尔线程上述三家初创企业是名副其实的“PPT融资造芯”，融资时无一家完成首颗芯片的流片（流水线试生产）。\n为何市场投资人愿意对此敞开钱包？数位投资人在接受钛媒体App采访时表示，这些项目能够获得大量资本支持，原因都为投资早期，主要看的还是团队、赛道两部分：AI芯片赛道风口已至，高管团队也均出自“美国芯片三巨头”。\n“我觉得需要给这些企业机会和耐心，不可能500个人都在写PPT。制造芯片是一个5年到10年的事情，我们愿意去投的原因，并非是投机或者是忽悠。我认为，投半导体赛道本身风险就高，需要做好长周期的打算，需要有足够强的风险承担能力，这和投资互联网的模式创新完全不一样。”上述投资人对钛媒体App表示。\n但也有半导体行业投资人指出，上述投资项目本质上还是希望市值撑高，有更高的回报率，尤其“芯片热”环境下，风投机构需要不断在中早期寻找这些GPU、AI芯片企业标的，希望从中赌得一份更高的回报。\n此外，在这一波GPU创业浪潮中，创始团队师出“美国芯片三巨头”。例如，天数智芯首席科学家郑金山曾任AMD首席技术专家；沐曦的创始团队主要来自AMD，CEO陈维良曾在AMD担任图形研发高级总监，CTO杨建曾任AMD Fellow（院士）；壁仞科技最新上任的联席CEO李新荣，曾任AMD全球副总裁，壁仞科技高级副总裁陈文中也曾在AMD任职。\n对此，章高男表示，AMD是GPU领域排名前二的芯片巨头，关于GPU核心研发都在上海，而图形渲染的研发是在美国，企业可以去找AMD和英伟达两家公司高管去沟通，而最终选择的人肯定是半导体行业内的佼佼者。\n鄢贵海认为，在细分新兴赛道，凭借需求侧的应用“势能”，中国芯片企业集中优势兵力，立足服务本土企业，突出开发的敏捷性，是有机会在产品定义、方案迭代周期上超越“英伟达”这些芯片巨头。他预计，10年内会出现一批技术领先的国产GPU、DPU企业。\n“芯片产业五个环节：设计、制造、封测、材料、EDA五个环节中，与应用最相关的是设计，我们最大的优势又在于应用，所以非常有机会在“设计”这一环节取得突破，然后以点带面，逐步扩大胜利版图。所谓“弯道超车”还是追赶策略，切入面向未来的新赛道并且全力加速才更有可能占据新的战略制高点。希望能在10年内能出现一批技术领先、产品扎实而且富有战略意识的企业。”鄢贵海对钛媒体App表示。\n壁仞科技创始人张文表示，对芯片公司的能力要求从产品级提升到系统级和生态级。时间上不超过5年，中国在AI芯片设计领域赶上甚至领先国际水准。他强调，超越英伟达，需要重新定义一个产品，以及重新定义一个市场。\n百亿DPU芯片市场“爆火”\n在黄仁勋看来，负责在数据中心传输和处理数据的数据处理单元（DPU），正与CPU、GPU共同组成“未来计算的三大支柱”。当中国芯片企业发力GPU时，英伟达则把目光放在了CPU、DPU这两个新市场中。\n2020年9月，英伟达宣布拟以400亿美元，从日本软件集团处收购英国芯片设计商Arm，预计写下半导体行业最大的并购案。但这笔交易存有争议，目前还等待欧盟、英国、美国和中国等政府的批准。但2021年4月，英伟达则宣布进军数据中心CPU市场，发布Grace CPU处理器，也就是本文开头黄仁勋所讲的那一段话。（详见钛媒体App前文：《英国政府出手干预，英伟达400亿美元并购Arm交易生变》）\nCPU和GPU之外，英伟达还在布局DPU。2019年，英伟达宣布以69亿美元全现金的形式收购以色列网络芯片商迈络思（Mellanox），并最终将其拿下。而这笔英伟达有史以来规模最大的收购，黄仁勋最看重的就是迈络思在数据中心技术等方面独步天下的能力。2020年10月，英伟达首次推出了DPU — NVIDIA BlueField系列数据处理器。\n究其根本，一方面DPU更灵活安全，更重要的是，DPU可以解放CPU的算力，释放服务器的负载，并凭借低功耗显著降低综合成本，甚至还可以改善AI和机器学习应用的性能。\n据IDC统计，全球算力的需求每3.5个月就会翻一倍，远远超过了当前算力的增长速度。在此驱动下，全球计算、存储和网络基础设施也在发生根本转变：一些数据量过大的工作负载，过多占用CPU资源，与之协同作战的各种“X”PU芯片便应运而生，GPU、FPGA等芯片之外，DPU就是下一个“X”PU。\n业内人士就此做了一个形象的比喻，网络就像造马路，以前1G 10G时代马路已经不够宽了，车子越来越多，为了平衡压力，通过增加红绿灯和投入更多的交警来更高的协调资源，这样已经让原来的效率提高很多，但是仍然不够。必须第一扩大马路，这就是带宽增加，但是马路从2道变为4道，仅仅依靠红绿灯和有限的交警还是会堵塞，但是我们不能无限增加交警，这就需要马路能更加智能，帮助解决拥堵。\n章高男指出，大量的网络管理在CPU里面，占据了容器能力，而DPU则是将服务器智能提供空间能力，大量虚拟化空间可以提高算力需求。\n随着2020年，DPU的名声超出了竞争对手英特尔所推出的基础设施处理器(IPU)和SmartNIC，也让每个对数据中心业务虎视眈眈的企业都要在这个领域分一杯羹。DPU成为了各大芯片巨头、初创公司争相研发的新赛道，国产DPU现在几乎处在百花齐放的状态，红杉、高瓴创投、鼎晖、软银中国都开始入场。\n今年4月，天眼查数据显示，国产DPU芯片供应商“云豹智能”完成腾讯投资、红杉资本、耀途资本等联合的天使轮融资；5月末，芯启源完成数亿元Pre-A轮融资，投资方包括软银中国、浦东科创集团等；7月27日，DPU芯片研发商“中科驭数”完成华泰创新领投的数亿元A轮融资；8月30日，DPU芯片研发商星云智联宣布完成了数亿元天使轮融资，由高瓴创投领投，鼎晖VGC、华登国际中国基金参与跟投；9月初，IDG资本豪掷“云脉芯联”天使轮融资项目。\n“DPU有可能成为继CPU和GPU之后的第三颗算力芯片，但从结构上来看，DPU会更异构、也更专用。”鄢贵海在接受钛媒体App等采访时表示，DPU产生的背景是智能时代数据爆发导致的端-边-云一体化趋势带来的对计算延迟、数据安全、资源虚拟化需求。CPU对这些非业务性负载已不堪重负，迫切需要一个理想的对象来分担这些计算负载。\n头豹研究院则预测，中国DPU市场规模预计将在2025年达到37.4亿美元。全球DPU市场规模2025年预计将达到135.7亿美元。同时报告也指出，数据流通是DPU最大的应用市场，其中裸金属服务其对DPU存在刚需。DPU在电信市场的应用主要为边缘计算场景，渗透率不足5%。针对智能驾驶领域的DPU仍在探索阶段，预计在2023年DPU才有望布局在智能驾驶领域。\n中国DPU市场规模，2020-2025年预测，来源：头豹研究院\n鄢贵海指出，CPU的性能从5-10年前每年30%的增幅，到三年前大概只有每年不到3%的性能增幅。而网络带宽每年依旧还有35%左右的增长。\n以中泰证券为例，当时该公司遇到的挑战是，交易报单合规检查太慢，需要提高交易效率。于是，中科驭数与中泰证券、上交所技术有限责任公司联合研发了一套极速风控系统解决方案，来加速这一流程。中科驭数相继研发了超低时延智能网卡、数据计算加速卡等多套产品和解决方案，主要面向高带宽、低时延、数据密集型等场景。该公司今年已经实现千万级别的季度营收。中科驭数的下一代DPU芯片预计将于2021年底完成设计，预计可处理高达200G网络带宽数据。\n不过，DPU市场虽然火爆，但概念较新，未知更多，投资风险也会更大。\n芯启源CEO卢笙指出，目前DPU细分赛道的壁垒还是相对较高的，除了技术壁垒之外，还有市场的壁垒，需要客户不断迭代，尤其是配合开源软件不断升级去适配客户快速变化的软硬件环境。因此VC（风险投资）在投资之前，一定要先认可赛道，且有足够的耐心。他强调，投资人需要对市场进行不断地观察并调整判断，现在谁也无法预料未来DPU发展前景。\n也有媒体认为，当英伟达进入新开辟的CPU和DPU战场，对中国的GPU厂商或许是个利好，尤其英伟达依然花大量精力放在400亿美元收购英国芯片设计商Arm公司的并购交易上，这对新创GPU企业而言，可能是个追赶的时机。\n正如章高男对钛媒体App所说，“从逻辑上讲，门槛不高的事情通常稀缺性都不高。（芯片半导体赛道）有些事情是很难的，需要长时间投入，虽然是高风险，但总归得有人去做。这是真正对国家有利的长远投入，其实应该鼓励投资。否则的话，这些需要长时间投入的难事，谁都不去做，你永远上不了台阶。”\n章高男强调，虽然风险投资肯定要追求回报，但他认为，在整个资金分配合理情况下，拿出一部分投资半导体赛道的初创企业，不仅有极强的社会意义，更是某种长期价值投资的重要体现。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2556,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":889800809,"gmtCreate":1631122579301,"gmtModify":1676530474613,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Omg","listText":"Omg","text":"Omg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/889800809","repostId":"2165994363","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2165994363","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1631085017,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2165994363?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-08 15:10","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Multiple indicators in the United States alarm!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2165994363","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美国人曾憧憬，这个夏天经济能回归常态，上班族回到办公室，孩子们重返校园，街角的咖啡店再次开业。但一切事与愿违，随着疫情复燃，复苏在8月踩下了急刹车。\n上周五，让人大跌眼镜的非农就业数据带来了最直接的报","content":"<p>Americans had hoped that the economy would return to normal this summer, office workers would return to the office, children would return to school, and the corner coffee shop would open again. But everything backfired. With the resurgence of the epidemic, the recovery stepped on a sudden brake in August.</p><p><b>Last Friday, the surprising non-farm payrolls data brought the most direct alarm signal.</b>The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by only 235,000 in August, a sharp miss the market expectation of 733,000, down from about 1 million in June and July, the smallest increase since January 2021.</p><p>In August, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index also fell to its lowest level in 10 years, with the spreading Delta variant and rising inflation worrying Americans.</p><p>According to data released by Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of 6 p.m. Eastern Time on September 7, 2021, a total of 40,238,083 confirmed cases and 650,345 deaths in novel coronavirus pneumonia have been reported in the United States.</p><p><b>In the past week, the United States has averaged more than 161,000 new cases per day, as many as 1,560 new deaths and more than 102,000 hospitalizations per day, only slightly lower than last winter's peak.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7c5b880f937edae73659acd8fa2e181\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"455\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Image credit: Worldometers)</p><p><h2>'Feelings of uncertainty and anxiety are back'</h2>With the resurgence of the epidemic, the opening of offices and schools in the United States has been postponed, and travel and performance plans have been cancelled.</p><p><b>Starting in August, including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Companies, large and small, have abandoned plans to reopen offices, with some even pushing back their return dates until 2022.</b></p><p>In mid-July, tourist arrivals to Hawaii had returned to near pre-pandemic levels, down only about 10% from the same period in 2019, official data showed. But starting in August, the pace slowed, with average daily tourist arrivals down 34% over 2019 in the last seven days of August.</p><p>Cinema traffic fell by more than half at the end of August compared to the peak of the pandemic in mid-July, according to market research firm TOP. Paramount Pictures has delayed the release of Top Gun: Maverick and Mission: Impossible 7.</p><p>At the same time, many schools in the United States have closed or resumed online classes.</p><p>The Wall Street Journal quoted Columbia Business School economist Stephan Meier as saying that the reopening of schools was supposed to be an important moment for the economy. About a quarter of households have school-age children, and reliable child care could get many Americans, especially women, back to work. But for now, the Delta variant and a lack of vaccines for children under 12 may keep some parents from working away from home.</p><p><b>Meier said: \"The uncertainty and anxiety we had last year is back, and this uncertainty is enough to curb labor supply.\"</b></p><p><h2>Institutions have lowered U.S. economic growth forecasts</h2>Economists believe the Delta variant of the virus will not push the United States back into recession, but losing growth momentum could prolong the recovery of millions of jobs lost during the pandemic, leaving many job markets on the sidelines and hindering companies from new uncertainties Invest under uncertainty.</p><p>In the report released this Monday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The expected growth rate of US GDP this year has been reduced to 5.7%, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise from 4.1% to 4.2% this year. This is the third time in less than three months that Goldman Sachs has lowered its US GDP forecast for this year.</p><p>When explaining why they lowered their forecasts this week, Goldman Sachs economists mentioned several major factors,<b>It is expected that as the variant virus Delta rages, the government's financial support is weakening, and demand shifts from goods to services, U.S. consumers may reduce spending, and the consumption situation is more severe than previously expected:</b></p><p>\"There seem to be many more obstacles to strong consumption growth in the future: the Delta variant virus is already putting pressure on growth in the third quarter, fiscal stimulus is dwindling, and the recovery of the service industry is slowing down. These will all be negative factors in the medium term.\" Earlier this month,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>It also significantly lowered the U.S. GDP forecast for the third quarter, from 6.5% to only 2.9%, and the GDP forecast for the fourth quarter remained at 6.7%. After revising down the third quarter GDP forecast, Morgan Stanley's U.S. GDP growth forecast for this year is 5.6%, which is lower than Goldman Sachs' full-year growth forecast after this week's downward adjustment.</p><p>Morgan Stanley said at the time,<b>The reduction in expectations is mainly due to the fact that the driving force of economic growth has been released ahead of schedule, the government's stimulus spending has reduced the boost to the economy, and supply chain bottlenecks continue to drag down the economy, resulting in a reduction in consumer spending on large durable goods such as automobiles.</b></p><p><h2>U.S. stocks fell for two consecutive days, and a bigger test lies ahead</h2>On Tuesday, the Dow fell more than 200 points, hitting a new closing low since August 19 and its largest closing drop since August 18. The S&P closed down 0.34% at 4,520.03 points, a new low since August 27.</p><p>This is the second consecutive day that the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P closed down after the release of the far-worse-than-expected non-farm payrolls report last Friday. Even the three-day long weekend, including Monday, failed to ease the decline in most sectors of U.S. stocks. Both U.S. stocks and U.S. bond prices fell intraday, Treasury Bond yields rose, and the benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yield hit a new high since mid-July.</p><p>The analysis pointed out that under the raging Delta variant virus, the market is reassessing the economic growth prospects of the United States and its impact on corporate profits.</p><p><b>With the gradual withdrawal of U.S. fiscal stimulus measures, the U.S. economic recovery will face further tests.</b></p><p>This week, more than 7.5 million Americans will lose $300 a week in additional pandemic-era unemployment benefits.<b>In addition to stopping pandemic subsidies, risk factors such as tax increases and debt increases have also brought additional tests to the U.S. economy.</b></p><p>Wall Street News previously mentioned that although the U.S. Congress seems likely to pass an infrastructure bill this fall, compared with the multiple rounds of stimulus plans launched since March 2020, the economic impact of the recent stimulus plan is relatively limited.</p><p>The U.S. Congress may vote to raise taxes on businesses and high-income individuals, which will offset the boost from spending-another short-term risk for markets.</p><p>At the same time, U.S. stocks may also be affected by the debt ceiling increase this fall. The U.S. Congress needs to pass an increase in the debt ceiling later this month to raise government funds, as well as a temporary spending bill to avoid a Washington shutdown in October.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Multiple indicators in the United States alarm!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMultiple indicators in the United States alarm!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-08 15:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Americans had hoped that the economy would return to normal this summer, office workers would return to the office, children would return to school, and the corner coffee shop would open again. But everything backfired. With the resurgence of the epidemic, the recovery stepped on a sudden brake in August.</p><p><b>Last Friday, the surprising non-farm payrolls data brought the most direct alarm signal.</b>The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by only 235,000 in August, a sharp miss the market expectation of 733,000, down from about 1 million in June and July, the smallest increase since January 2021.</p><p>In August, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index also fell to its lowest level in 10 years, with the spreading Delta variant and rising inflation worrying Americans.</p><p>According to data released by Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of 6 p.m. Eastern Time on September 7, 2021, a total of 40,238,083 confirmed cases and 650,345 deaths in novel coronavirus pneumonia have been reported in the United States.</p><p><b>In the past week, the United States has averaged more than 161,000 new cases per day, as many as 1,560 new deaths and more than 102,000 hospitalizations per day, only slightly lower than last winter's peak.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7c5b880f937edae73659acd8fa2e181\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"455\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Image credit: Worldometers)</p><p><h2>'Feelings of uncertainty and anxiety are back'</h2>With the resurgence of the epidemic, the opening of offices and schools in the United States has been postponed, and travel and performance plans have been cancelled.</p><p><b>Starting in August, including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Companies, large and small, have abandoned plans to reopen offices, with some even pushing back their return dates until 2022.</b></p><p>In mid-July, tourist arrivals to Hawaii had returned to near pre-pandemic levels, down only about 10% from the same period in 2019, official data showed. But starting in August, the pace slowed, with average daily tourist arrivals down 34% over 2019 in the last seven days of August.</p><p>Cinema traffic fell by more than half at the end of August compared to the peak of the pandemic in mid-July, according to market research firm TOP. Paramount Pictures has delayed the release of Top Gun: Maverick and Mission: Impossible 7.</p><p>At the same time, many schools in the United States have closed or resumed online classes.</p><p>The Wall Street Journal quoted Columbia Business School economist Stephan Meier as saying that the reopening of schools was supposed to be an important moment for the economy. About a quarter of households have school-age children, and reliable child care could get many Americans, especially women, back to work. But for now, the Delta variant and a lack of vaccines for children under 12 may keep some parents from working away from home.</p><p><b>Meier said: \"The uncertainty and anxiety we had last year is back, and this uncertainty is enough to curb labor supply.\"</b></p><p><h2>Institutions have lowered U.S. economic growth forecasts</h2>Economists believe the Delta variant of the virus will not push the United States back into recession, but losing growth momentum could prolong the recovery of millions of jobs lost during the pandemic, leaving many job markets on the sidelines and hindering companies from new uncertainties Invest under uncertainty.</p><p>In the report released this Monday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The expected growth rate of US GDP this year has been reduced to 5.7%, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise from 4.1% to 4.2% this year. This is the third time in less than three months that Goldman Sachs has lowered its US GDP forecast for this year.</p><p>When explaining why they lowered their forecasts this week, Goldman Sachs economists mentioned several major factors,<b>It is expected that as the variant virus Delta rages, the government's financial support is weakening, and demand shifts from goods to services, U.S. consumers may reduce spending, and the consumption situation is more severe than previously expected:</b></p><p>\"There seem to be many more obstacles to strong consumption growth in the future: the Delta variant virus is already putting pressure on growth in the third quarter, fiscal stimulus is dwindling, and the recovery of the service industry is slowing down. These will all be negative factors in the medium term.\" Earlier this month,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>It also significantly lowered the U.S. GDP forecast for the third quarter, from 6.5% to only 2.9%, and the GDP forecast for the fourth quarter remained at 6.7%. After revising down the third quarter GDP forecast, Morgan Stanley's U.S. GDP growth forecast for this year is 5.6%, which is lower than Goldman Sachs' full-year growth forecast after this week's downward adjustment.</p><p>Morgan Stanley said at the time,<b>The reduction in expectations is mainly due to the fact that the driving force of economic growth has been released ahead of schedule, the government's stimulus spending has reduced the boost to the economy, and supply chain bottlenecks continue to drag down the economy, resulting in a reduction in consumer spending on large durable goods such as automobiles.</b></p><p><h2>U.S. stocks fell for two consecutive days, and a bigger test lies ahead</h2>On Tuesday, the Dow fell more than 200 points, hitting a new closing low since August 19 and its largest closing drop since August 18. The S&P closed down 0.34% at 4,520.03 points, a new low since August 27.</p><p>This is the second consecutive day that the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P closed down after the release of the far-worse-than-expected non-farm payrolls report last Friday. Even the three-day long weekend, including Monday, failed to ease the decline in most sectors of U.S. stocks. Both U.S. stocks and U.S. bond prices fell intraday, Treasury Bond yields rose, and the benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yield hit a new high since mid-July.</p><p>The analysis pointed out that under the raging Delta variant virus, the market is reassessing the economic growth prospects of the United States and its impact on corporate profits.</p><p><b>With the gradual withdrawal of U.S. fiscal stimulus measures, the U.S. economic recovery will face further tests.</b></p><p>This week, more than 7.5 million Americans will lose $300 a week in additional pandemic-era unemployment benefits.<b>In addition to stopping pandemic subsidies, risk factors such as tax increases and debt increases have also brought additional tests to the U.S. economy.</b></p><p>Wall Street News previously mentioned that although the U.S. Congress seems likely to pass an infrastructure bill this fall, compared with the multiple rounds of stimulus plans launched since March 2020, the economic impact of the recent stimulus plan is relatively limited.</p><p>The U.S. Congress may vote to raise taxes on businesses and high-income individuals, which will offset the boost from spending-another short-term risk for markets.</p><p>At the same time, U.S. stocks may also be affected by the debt ceiling increase this fall. The U.S. Congress needs to pass an increase in the debt ceiling later this month to raise government funds, as well as a temporary spending bill to avoid a Washington shutdown in October.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3639891\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","518880":"黄金ETF","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3639891","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2165994363","content_text":"美国人曾憧憬，这个夏天经济能回归常态，上班族回到办公室，孩子们重返校园，街角的咖啡店再次开业。但一切事与愿违，随着疫情复燃，复苏在8月踩下了急刹车。\n上周五，让人大跌眼镜的非农就业数据带来了最直接的报警信号。美国8月非农就业人口仅增加23.5万人，大幅不及市场预期的73.3万人，低于6月和7月的约100万个，创2021年1月以来最小增幅。\n8月，密歇根大学消费者信心指数也跌至10年来的最低水平，不断蔓延的Delta变种病毒和持续上升的通胀令美国人感到担忧。\n据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学发布的数据，截至美国东部时间2021年9月7日下午6点，全美共报告新冠肺炎确诊40238083例，死亡650345例。\n过去一周，美国平均每天新增病例超过 161000 例，新增死亡病例高达 1560 例，平均每天住院人数超过 102000 人，仅比去年冬天的峰值略低。\n\n(图片来源：Worldometers)\n“不确定性和焦虑感又回来了”\n疫情复燃之下，美国办公室和学校推迟开放，旅行和演出计划纷纷取消。\n从8月份开始，包括苹果、亚马逊在内的大小的公司都放弃了重新开放办公室的计划，一些公司甚至将返回日期推迟到2022年。\n官方数据显示，7月中旬，前往夏威夷的游客人数已经恢复至接近疫情前的水平，仅比2019年同期下降了约10%。但从8月开始，速度有所放缓，在8月的最后7天，日均游客抵达数量比2019年下降了34%。\n市场研究公司TOP的数据显示，与7月中旬的疫情高峰相比，8月底的影院客流量下降了一半以上。派拉蒙影业公司推迟了《壮志凌云:特立独行》和《碟中谍7》的上映。\n与此同时，美国许多学校已经关闭或恢复线上授课。\n华尔街日报援引哥伦比亚商学院经济学家Stephan Meier表示，学校重新开学本应是经济的一个重要时刻。大约四分之一的家庭有学龄儿童，可靠的儿童看护可以让许多美国人，尤其是女性重返工作岗位。但目前，Delta变种和缺乏针对12岁以下儿童的疫苗可能会让一些父母不愿离家工作。\nMeier称：“我们去年的不确定性和焦虑感又回来了，这种不确定性足以抑制劳动力供应。”\n机构纷纷下调美国经济增长预期\n经济学家认为，Delta变种病毒不会将美国推回衰退，但失去增长动力可能延长疫情期间失去的数百万就业岗位的复苏，令许多就业市场处于观望状态，并阻碍企业在新的不确定性下投资。\n本周一发布的报告中，高盛将今年的美国GDP预期增速降至5.7%，今年失业率预期从4.1%升至4.2%，这是不到三个月里，高盛第三次下调今年美国GDP预期。\n在本周解释为何下调预期时，高盛经济学家提到几大影响因素，预计由于变种病毒Delta肆虐、政府的财政支持在减弱，加之需求从商品转换到服务，美国消费者可能减少支出，消费形势比之前预期的更严峻：\n\n “未来消费强劲增长的阻碍看来多得多：Delta变异病毒已经在施压三季度增长，财政刺激在减少，服务业复苏放缓，这些都将是中期内的负面因素。”\n\n本月初，摩根士丹利也大幅下调了三季度美国GDP预期，从6.5%猛砍至仅2.9%，四季度GDP预期维持在6.7%。下修三季度GDP预期后，摩根士丹利的美国今年全年GDP增速预期为5.6%，比高盛本周调降后的全年预期增速还低。\n摩根士丹利当时称，调降预期主要由于经济增长的动力已提前释放，政府刺激性支出对经济的推动减少，加之供应链瓶颈持续拖累经济，汽车等大件耐用品的消费者支出由此减少。\n美股两连跌，更大的考验在后面\n周二，道指跌超200点，创8月19日以来收盘新低以及8月18日以来最大收盘跌幅。标普收跌0.34%，报4520.03点，创8月27日以来新低。\n这是上周五远逊预期的非农就业报告公布后，道指、标普连续两日收跌。即使是包括周一在内的三日长周末也没能缓和美股多数板块的跌势，美股和美债价格盘中齐跌，国债收益率上行，基准10年期美债收益率刷新7月中旬以来高位。\n分析指出，Delta变种病毒肆虐之下，市场正在重新评估美国经济增长前景，以及其对企业盈利的影响。\n随着美国财政刺激措施逐渐退场，美国经济复苏将面临进一步的考验。\n本周，超过750万的美国人将失去疫情时期每周300美元的额外失业救济。除了停止疫情补贴外，增税、债务上调等风险因素也给美国经济带来了额外的考验。\n华尔街见闻此前提及，尽管美国国会似乎有可能在今年秋季通过一项基础设施法案，但与2020年3月以来推出的多轮刺激计划相比，近期的刺激计划经济影响相对有限。\n美国国会可能会投票决定提高对企业和高收入个人的税收，这将抵消支出带来的提振——这是市场面临的另一个短期风险。\n与此同时，美股今秋还可能受到债务上限上调的影响。美国国会需要在本月晚些时候通过提高债务上限以筹集政府资金，以及一项临时开支法案，以避免华盛顿在10月份关闭。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159934":0.9,"518880":0.9,"IAU":0.9,"GLD":0.9,"NUGT":0.9,"SGUmain":0.9,"DUST":0.9,"GDX":0.9,"SGCmain":0.9,"MGCmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2643,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":834684230,"gmtCreate":1629797562520,"gmtModify":1676530134416,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good ","listText":"Good ","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/834684230","repostId":"1140946559","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140946559","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1629785482,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140946559?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-24 14:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Wall Street optimists: The peak of the U.S. epidemic is approaching, and it is an opportunity to restart trading at the bottom","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140946559","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在摩根士丹利管理约75亿美元资产的Andrew Slimmon认为，新一波疫情将在第四季度得到有效控制，投资者应该在8月就开始买入此前跌幅较大的股票，而不是等到10月。\n\n美国乐观派认为，随着美国最初","content":"<p>In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Andrew Slimmon, who manages about $7.5 billion in assets, believes that the new wave of the epidemic will be effectively controlled in the fourth quarter, and investors should start buying stocks that have fallen sharply before in August instead of waiting until October. American optimists believe that as the number of cases in areas where the initial Delta variant broke out in the United States declines, the number of new cases in other parts of the country will also be effectively controlled in the near future.</p><p>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYT\">The New York Times</a>Statistics show that the United States faced a new round of epidemic outbreak at the end of June, and in recent days, the average daily number of new cases in the United States has been close to 150,000.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f7a7969baf4d258fded3fd6a80f2275\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"410\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Stocks of some companies with offline businesses have been sold off heavily amid concerns about COVID-19 pandemic. However, Andrew Slimmon, who manages about $7.5 billion in assets at Morgan Stanley, holds the opposite opinion. He believes that this is a good time to buy bottoms.</p><p>According to Bloomberg, Slimmon told his clients that it is necessary to prepare for the upcoming economic recovery:</p><p>Every year there are all kinds of economic problems that will eventually ride out. Looking ahead, people will become more optimistic. This bodes well for stocks that have been sold off on COVID-19 pandemic's comeback. Interest rates could bottom out in the coming months and recover in the fourth quarter. Slimmon believes that trading opportunities are concentrated on the stocks that have fallen the most in the past period, namely cyclical stocks, energy stocks, stocks that have resumed trading.</p><p>Based on the above views, Slimmon focuses on stocks that have fallen 20% or even 30% from their all-time peaks earlier this year. He has bought large stakes in casinos, cruise ships, restaurant and theater companies, as well as retail real estate investment trusts.</p><p>This view runs counter to recent market sentiment, and most investors prefer defensive investment strategies. Additionally, growth stocks (such as tech stocks that outperformed the broader market index during a COVID-19 pandemic) have outperformed their lower-value peers for 3 months in a row, while small-cap stocks have fallen about 60% from their all-time highs in mid-March.</p><p>However, he also pointed out that the market is forward-looking and investors should not continue to chase stocks such as technology stocks that are near record highs. \" I am optimistic that the COVID-19 pandemic will soon pass and investors should start buying these stocks in August instead of waiting until October, \"Slimmon said.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street optimists: The peak of the U.S. epidemic is approaching, and it is an opportunity to restart trading at the bottom</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street optimists: The peak of the U.S. epidemic is approaching, and it is an opportunity to restart trading at the bottom\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-24 14:11</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Andrew Slimmon, who manages about $7.5 billion in assets, believes that the new wave of the epidemic will be effectively controlled in the fourth quarter, and investors should start buying stocks that have fallen sharply before in August instead of waiting until October. American optimists believe that as the number of cases in areas where the initial Delta variant broke out in the United States declines, the number of new cases in other parts of the country will also be effectively controlled in the near future.</p><p>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYT\">The New York Times</a>Statistics show that the United States faced a new round of epidemic outbreak at the end of June, and in recent days, the average daily number of new cases in the United States has been close to 150,000.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f7a7969baf4d258fded3fd6a80f2275\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"410\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Stocks of some companies with offline businesses have been sold off heavily amid concerns about COVID-19 pandemic. However, Andrew Slimmon, who manages about $7.5 billion in assets at Morgan Stanley, holds the opposite opinion. He believes that this is a good time to buy bottoms.</p><p>According to Bloomberg, Slimmon told his clients that it is necessary to prepare for the upcoming economic recovery:</p><p>Every year there are all kinds of economic problems that will eventually ride out. Looking ahead, people will become more optimistic. This bodes well for stocks that have been sold off on COVID-19 pandemic's comeback. Interest rates could bottom out in the coming months and recover in the fourth quarter. Slimmon believes that trading opportunities are concentrated on the stocks that have fallen the most in the past period, namely cyclical stocks, energy stocks, stocks that have resumed trading.</p><p>Based on the above views, Slimmon focuses on stocks that have fallen 20% or even 30% from their all-time peaks earlier this year. He has bought large stakes in casinos, cruise ships, restaurant and theater companies, as well as retail real estate investment trusts.</p><p>This view runs counter to recent market sentiment, and most investors prefer defensive investment strategies. Additionally, growth stocks (such as tech stocks that outperformed the broader market index during a COVID-19 pandemic) have outperformed their lower-value peers for 3 months in a row, while small-cap stocks have fallen about 60% from their all-time highs in mid-March.</p><p>However, he also pointed out that the market is forward-looking and investors should not continue to chase stocks such as technology stocks that are near record highs. \" I am optimistic that the COVID-19 pandemic will soon pass and investors should start buying these stocks in August instead of waiting until October, \"Slimmon said.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3219c1e34771d4a607fc67aee82f7281","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140946559","content_text":"在摩根士丹利管理约75亿美元资产的Andrew Slimmon认为，新一波疫情将在第四季度得到有效控制，投资者应该在8月就开始买入此前跌幅较大的股票，而不是等到10月。\n\n美国乐观派认为，随着美国最初的Delta变异株爆发地区的病例数下降，该国其他地区的新增病例数也将在不久后得到有效控制。\n据纽约时报统计数据，6月底美国面临了新一轮疫情的爆发，而近日以来，美国的平均每日新增病例数已接近15万例。\n\n出于对新冠疫情的担忧，一些线下业务公司的股票遭到大举抛售。然而在摩根士丹利管理约75亿美元资产的Andrew Slimmon却持相反的意见，他认为此时正是抄底的好时候。\n据彭博，Slimmon向他的客户表示，需要为即将到来的经济复苏做好准备：\n\n 每年都会出现各式各样的经济问题，最终都会安然度过。展望未来，人们会变得更加乐观。对于因新冠疫情卷土重来而遭抛售的股票来说，这是个好兆头。利率可能在未来几个月触底，并在第四季度恢复。\n\nSlimmon认为，交易机会集中在过去一段时间以来跌幅最大的股票上，即周期性股票、能源股票、重新复牌的股票。\n基于上述观点，Slimmon关注的是较今年早些时候的历史峰值下跌了20%甚至30%的股票，他大笔购入了赌场、游轮、餐厅和剧院公司的股份，以及零售房地产投资信托基金。\n这一看法与近期的市场情绪背道而驰，大部分的投资者偏爱防守型投资策略。此外，成长股（例如在新冠疫情期间表现优于大盘指数的科技股）已经连续3个月跑赢了价值较低的同类股票，而小盘股已从3月中旬的历史高位下跌了约60%。\n不过他也指出，市场具有前瞻性，投资者不应继续追逐科技股等接近创纪录高位的股票。”我很乐观，新冠疫情很快将会过去，投资者应该在8月就开始买入这些股票，而不是等到10月”，Slimmon称。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2224,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":835240012,"gmtCreate":1629723743636,"gmtModify":1676530111553,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi ","listText":"Hi ","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/835240012","repostId":"1197421899","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197421899","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629700881,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1197421899?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-23 14:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The global liquidity crisis is unfolding, and a currency war is coming?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197421899","media":"腾讯美股","summary":"《货币战争》作者里卡兹表示，要准确预测到全球流动性危机何时总爆发，以及其程度到底有多严重，对谁而言都是不可能完成的任务。不过，谁都必须承认的是，前述种种趋势自3月以来都愈演愈烈，意味着压力正在迅速堆积","content":"<p><i>Rickards, author of Currency War, said that it is impossible for anyone to accurately predict when the global liquidity crisis will always break out and how serious it is. However, everyone must admit that the aforementioned trends have intensified since March, which means that the pressure is rapidly accumulating and the crisis is rapidly brewing, perhaps as early as October.</i><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57673e3350d8cf4f24fcf88b67a75296\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"818\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Unconsciously, a new front of a currency war has loomed on the horizon. The reason why most observers have not noticed it is simply because the situation has not yet evolved to the point where all parties involved have openly manipulated monetary policy without scruple, and that day is not far away, maybe early 2022 will come.</p><p>This conclusion comes from Jim Rickards, a famous investor and economist. Rickards is a figure with a kaleidoscope of experience-he worked hard on Wall Street for decades, originally a lawyer, happened to be the legal adviser of a hedge fund long-term asset management company during the Asian financial turmoil, and participated in promoting the rescue operation led by the Federal Reserve, which saved the American financial system from major damage. After entering the industry, he taught himself economics, became an expert in financial risk research, and served as a financial warfare consultant of the Pentagon.</p><p>However, Rickards is best known to investors as the author of best-selling financial books, especially Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis, published in 2012. Such a currency war expert issued the aforementioned warning, which naturally makes people dare not take it lightly. In the latest article, Rickards expounded his views on this issue. The following is the full text of his article.</p><p>Soon, there is a high probability that the world will experience a major round of market disruption, and as a result, the exchange rate of the US dollar relative to other major currencies will rise sharply. In this case, the United States will suffer a double painful blow, that is, in addition to the pain caused by market destruction, the sharp strengthening of the U.S. dollar will also have a serious impact on U.S. exports and export-related employment opportunities. In this case, The U.S. Treasury Department will most likely weaken the U.S. dollar, and the curtain of the currency war will begin.</p><p>Let's carefully analyze the macroeconomic picture on which this argument is based.</p><p>The fact is that since 2010, the world has entered an invisible low-intensity currency war-after the global financial crisis from 2007 to 2008, in order to stimulate the economy, then US President Barack Obama began to weaken the US dollar.</p><p>Both the White House and the Treasury are well aware that the weakening of the US dollar will inevitably damage the economic growth prospects of Europe and Japan, but they obviously don't care at all. Of course, this idea has its own reasons objectively. After all, the United States is the largest economy in the world. If the American economy falls into recession, none of the other major economies in the world can survive alone.</p><p>After the rare Great Recession from 2007 to 2009, to ensure the sustained recovery of the U.S. economy and avoid a new round of recession, weakening the U.S. dollar has become the top priority. The unlucky one this time is Europe, the US and the rest of the world's economies haven't suffered much.</p><p><b>Temporary truce in currency wars</b></p><p>The American policy really worked. By August 2011, the Fed's trade-weighted index showed that the exchange rate of the US dollar had fallen to an all-time low. It is entirely understandable that at about the same time, the price of gold hit an all-time high, and the exchange rate of the euro also soared. Needless to say, as for the American economy, it has received much-needed support.</p><p>After that, the United States began to release goodwill towards Europe, allowing the dollar to strengthen moderately. By October 2016, the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar had dropped to 1.05 US dollars per euro. Americans' judgment at that time was that their economy had reached enough strength to fully withstand the impact of the falling euro, and there was enough room for Europeans to operate and promote the economic rebound of the euro zone.</p><p>Since then, the cross exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar has basically oscillated within a narrow range. For example, on July 1, 2017, the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar was 1 euro to 1.18 US dollars, which is almost exactly the same as today, four years later.</p><p>Here, everyone must first understand that the so-called currency war does not necessarily mean that only the two parties involved or all parties go into battle shirtless, causing the cross-exchange rate to fluctuate violently and the valuation is extreme. Currency wars also have relatively calm cycles, and such cycles can last for a long time.</p><p>Another point is that the most fundamental reason for the outbreak of currency war is that the debt is too high and the economic growth is insufficient. As long as this fundamental reason persists, there will always be one or that economy trying to stimulate economic growth by devaluing its currency relative to its major trading partners-in other words, the war is still likely to break out at any time.</p><p>Interestingly, although it is likely that the United States will rapidly weaken the US dollar in the near future as part of its own economic rescue plan, in the short term, the US dollar will have a strong market first. Why is this?</p><p><b>A shaky recovery</b></p><p>First of all, the crux of the problem is that the White House and the U.S. Treasury Department don't really understand the U.S. economy at present, or more specifically, they don't know how weak the U.S. economy is at present. As we all know, the growth rate of 6.5% GDP in the second quarter of the United States is lower than the widely expected outside world, but the real economic situation is even worse than the figures show.</p><p>The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker read 13% in April and dropped to 7.5% in June. As we all know, the real economic growth rate in the second quarter was 6.5%. This means that in just three months in the second quarter, the growth prospects have been greatly weakened. At the same time, it also shows that if the economic growth in April and May is relatively strong, then the actual performance in June, the last month, is actually less than the quarterly average of 6.5%.</p><p>This obviously makes people more and more worried about the next third quarter.</p><p>At the same time, apart from the highly anticipated GDP figures, other economic data released at the same time are also worrying. For example, as Americans are letting go of stimulus checks sent by the government, imports are booming.</p><p>But on the export side, the story is completely different, which shows that the performance of many other economies in the world is actually far inferior to that of the United States. In the simplest terms, many of these other economies are in such a bad situation that they simply don't have the appetite to eat many American imports.</p><p><b>The situation continues to deteriorate</b></p><p>Even more dramatically, Americans' personal income has declined at an annualized rate of 30%. For eight months from October 2020, private sector revenue grew virtually zero. It's terrible to see this alone, but to think again that the government subsidies that support the personal income situation are expiring one after another, people can't help but become more pessimistic about the prospects.</p><p>The extra subsidy of unemployment benefits has entered the countdown to its disappearance. The order prohibiting homeowners from evicting tenants is less than a few dozen days left, and it has been labeled unconstitutional. Meanwhile, the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loan has expired. All in all, in the short term, there is no possibility of a new plan for large-scale check distribution.</p><p>Now that the wave of government cash distribution has reached its final stage, while personal income has stagnated and exports have declined, so what else can the U.S. GDP continue to grow in the second half of 2021? Hope?</p><p>By November this year, when the third-quarter GDP report comes out, President Biden and Treasury Secretary Yellen will know how bad the economy is doing. In addition, by then, they will most likely have learned the bad news of inflation and employment data for several consecutive months.</p><p>The trouble is that it will be too late to find a way to stop the sharp economic downturn by then. Also, from a political perspective, there was less than a year left before the 2022 mid-term elections. The Democratic Party and the White House will be completely panicked, and by then, the only thing they can do is ask the Treasury Department to do whatever is necessary to weaken the dollar.</p><p>This is exactly the fundamental logic that the dollar will become weak in 2022. So, why did the dollar show strength before that?</p><p><b>Global liquidity crisis</b></p><p>The answer is that a global liquidity crisis is actually already underway. Of course, a crisis like this can't happen overnight, and it usually takes at least a year or two behind the scenes to make the market and the public fully aware of how severe the status quo has become.</p><p>Here are some noteworthy warning signs of global financial stress:</p><p>--Many governments are reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasury Bond. Of course, this does not mean that the US dollar has been rejected by these countries, but that the banking systems of these countries are in urgent need of US dollars. In exchange for US dollars, they have reluctantly sold US debt, and this last resort operation just shows how serious their problems have become.</p><p>--Some specific euro futures curves have slightly reversed, forming the so-called spot premium. This shows that banks and large financial institutions predict that the trend of interest rates in the euro zone will be higher in the short term and lower in the long term. The former indicates that financial pressure will increase in the short term, while the latter indicates that in the long term, the economy will have a high probability of recession.</p><p>--Since March, the yield level of ten-year U.S. Treasury Bond has continued to decline, and it has fallen a lot. This shows that almost all traders are chasing higher-quality investment targets because of fear, and everyone expects that economic growth will slow down in the future, easing inflationary pressures and even recession.</p><p>Of course, it is impossible for anyone to accurately predict when and how serious the global liquidity crisis will always break out. However, everyone must admit that the aforementioned trends have intensified since March, which means that the pressure is rapidly accumulating and the crisis is rapidly brewing, perhaps as early as October.</p><p>Needless to say, when this crisis really comes, global investors will desperately pursue security, and the US dollar and gold will strengthen significantly by then.</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The global liquidity crisis is unfolding, and a currency war is coming?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe global liquidity crisis is unfolding, and a currency war is coming?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">腾讯美股</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-23 14:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i>Rickards, author of Currency War, said that it is impossible for anyone to accurately predict when the global liquidity crisis will always break out and how serious it is. However, everyone must admit that the aforementioned trends have intensified since March, which means that the pressure is rapidly accumulating and the crisis is rapidly brewing, perhaps as early as October.</i><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57673e3350d8cf4f24fcf88b67a75296\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"818\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Unconsciously, a new front of a currency war has loomed on the horizon. The reason why most observers have not noticed it is simply because the situation has not yet evolved to the point where all parties involved have openly manipulated monetary policy without scruple, and that day is not far away, maybe early 2022 will come.</p><p>This conclusion comes from Jim Rickards, a famous investor and economist. Rickards is a figure with a kaleidoscope of experience-he worked hard on Wall Street for decades, originally a lawyer, happened to be the legal adviser of a hedge fund long-term asset management company during the Asian financial turmoil, and participated in promoting the rescue operation led by the Federal Reserve, which saved the American financial system from major damage. After entering the industry, he taught himself economics, became an expert in financial risk research, and served as a financial warfare consultant of the Pentagon.</p><p>However, Rickards is best known to investors as the author of best-selling financial books, especially Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis, published in 2012. Such a currency war expert issued the aforementioned warning, which naturally makes people dare not take it lightly. In the latest article, Rickards expounded his views on this issue. The following is the full text of his article.</p><p>Soon, there is a high probability that the world will experience a major round of market disruption, and as a result, the exchange rate of the US dollar relative to other major currencies will rise sharply. In this case, the United States will suffer a double painful blow, that is, in addition to the pain caused by market destruction, the sharp strengthening of the U.S. dollar will also have a serious impact on U.S. exports and export-related employment opportunities. In this case, The U.S. Treasury Department will most likely weaken the U.S. dollar, and the curtain of the currency war will begin.</p><p>Let's carefully analyze the macroeconomic picture on which this argument is based.</p><p>The fact is that since 2010, the world has entered an invisible low-intensity currency war-after the global financial crisis from 2007 to 2008, in order to stimulate the economy, then US President Barack Obama began to weaken the US dollar.</p><p>Both the White House and the Treasury are well aware that the weakening of the US dollar will inevitably damage the economic growth prospects of Europe and Japan, but they obviously don't care at all. Of course, this idea has its own reasons objectively. After all, the United States is the largest economy in the world. If the American economy falls into recession, none of the other major economies in the world can survive alone.</p><p>After the rare Great Recession from 2007 to 2009, to ensure the sustained recovery of the U.S. economy and avoid a new round of recession, weakening the U.S. dollar has become the top priority. The unlucky one this time is Europe, the US and the rest of the world's economies haven't suffered much.</p><p><b>Temporary truce in currency wars</b></p><p>The American policy really worked. By August 2011, the Fed's trade-weighted index showed that the exchange rate of the US dollar had fallen to an all-time low. It is entirely understandable that at about the same time, the price of gold hit an all-time high, and the exchange rate of the euro also soared. Needless to say, as for the American economy, it has received much-needed support.</p><p>After that, the United States began to release goodwill towards Europe, allowing the dollar to strengthen moderately. By October 2016, the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar had dropped to 1.05 US dollars per euro. Americans' judgment at that time was that their economy had reached enough strength to fully withstand the impact of the falling euro, and there was enough room for Europeans to operate and promote the economic rebound of the euro zone.</p><p>Since then, the cross exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar has basically oscillated within a narrow range. For example, on July 1, 2017, the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar was 1 euro to 1.18 US dollars, which is almost exactly the same as today, four years later.</p><p>Here, everyone must first understand that the so-called currency war does not necessarily mean that only the two parties involved or all parties go into battle shirtless, causing the cross-exchange rate to fluctuate violently and the valuation is extreme. Currency wars also have relatively calm cycles, and such cycles can last for a long time.</p><p>Another point is that the most fundamental reason for the outbreak of currency war is that the debt is too high and the economic growth is insufficient. As long as this fundamental reason persists, there will always be one or that economy trying to stimulate economic growth by devaluing its currency relative to its major trading partners-in other words, the war is still likely to break out at any time.</p><p>Interestingly, although it is likely that the United States will rapidly weaken the US dollar in the near future as part of its own economic rescue plan, in the short term, the US dollar will have a strong market first. Why is this?</p><p><b>A shaky recovery</b></p><p>First of all, the crux of the problem is that the White House and the U.S. Treasury Department don't really understand the U.S. economy at present, or more specifically, they don't know how weak the U.S. economy is at present. As we all know, the growth rate of 6.5% GDP in the second quarter of the United States is lower than the widely expected outside world, but the real economic situation is even worse than the figures show.</p><p>The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker read 13% in April and dropped to 7.5% in June. As we all know, the real economic growth rate in the second quarter was 6.5%. This means that in just three months in the second quarter, the growth prospects have been greatly weakened. At the same time, it also shows that if the economic growth in April and May is relatively strong, then the actual performance in June, the last month, is actually less than the quarterly average of 6.5%.</p><p>This obviously makes people more and more worried about the next third quarter.</p><p>At the same time, apart from the highly anticipated GDP figures, other economic data released at the same time are also worrying. For example, as Americans are letting go of stimulus checks sent by the government, imports are booming.</p><p>But on the export side, the story is completely different, which shows that the performance of many other economies in the world is actually far inferior to that of the United States. In the simplest terms, many of these other economies are in such a bad situation that they simply don't have the appetite to eat many American imports.</p><p><b>The situation continues to deteriorate</b></p><p>Even more dramatically, Americans' personal income has declined at an annualized rate of 30%. For eight months from October 2020, private sector revenue grew virtually zero. It's terrible to see this alone, but to think again that the government subsidies that support the personal income situation are expiring one after another, people can't help but become more pessimistic about the prospects.</p><p>The extra subsidy of unemployment benefits has entered the countdown to its disappearance. The order prohibiting homeowners from evicting tenants is less than a few dozen days left, and it has been labeled unconstitutional. Meanwhile, the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loan has expired. All in all, in the short term, there is no possibility of a new plan for large-scale check distribution.</p><p>Now that the wave of government cash distribution has reached its final stage, while personal income has stagnated and exports have declined, so what else can the U.S. GDP continue to grow in the second half of 2021? Hope?</p><p>By November this year, when the third-quarter GDP report comes out, President Biden and Treasury Secretary Yellen will know how bad the economy is doing. In addition, by then, they will most likely have learned the bad news of inflation and employment data for several consecutive months.</p><p>The trouble is that it will be too late to find a way to stop the sharp economic downturn by then. Also, from a political perspective, there was less than a year left before the 2022 mid-term elections. The Democratic Party and the White House will be completely panicked, and by then, the only thing they can do is ask the Treasury Department to do whatever is necessary to weaken the dollar.</p><p>This is exactly the fundamental logic that the dollar will become weak in 2022. So, why did the dollar show strength before that?</p><p><b>Global liquidity crisis</b></p><p>The answer is that a global liquidity crisis is actually already underway. Of course, a crisis like this can't happen overnight, and it usually takes at least a year or two behind the scenes to make the market and the public fully aware of how severe the status quo has become.</p><p>Here are some noteworthy warning signs of global financial stress:</p><p>--Many governments are reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasury Bond. Of course, this does not mean that the US dollar has been rejected by these countries, but that the banking systems of these countries are in urgent need of US dollars. In exchange for US dollars, they have reluctantly sold US debt, and this last resort operation just shows how serious their problems have become.</p><p>--Some specific euro futures curves have slightly reversed, forming the so-called spot premium. This shows that banks and large financial institutions predict that the trend of interest rates in the euro zone will be higher in the short term and lower in the long term. The former indicates that financial pressure will increase in the short term, while the latter indicates that in the long term, the economy will have a high probability of recession.</p><p>--Since March, the yield level of ten-year U.S. Treasury Bond has continued to decline, and it has fallen a lot. This shows that almost all traders are chasing higher-quality investment targets because of fear, and everyone expects that economic growth will slow down in the future, easing inflationary pressures and even recession.</p><p>Of course, it is impossible for anyone to accurately predict when and how serious the global liquidity crisis will always break out. However, everyone must admit that the aforementioned trends have intensified since March, which means that the pressure is rapidly accumulating and the crisis is rapidly brewing, perhaps as early as October.</p><p>Needless to say, when this crisis really comes, global investors will desperately pursue security, and the US dollar and gold will strengthen significantly by then.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/J77wFOvahw72twOv3356Rg\">腾讯美股</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddf6fcde93937ee1cea8212ac47e8628","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/J77wFOvahw72twOv3356Rg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197421899","content_text":"《货币战争》作者里卡兹表示，要准确预测到全球流动性危机何时总爆发，以及其程度到底有多严重，对谁而言都是不可能完成的任务。不过，谁都必须承认的是，前述种种趋势自3月以来都愈演愈烈，意味着压力正在迅速堆积，危机正在迅速酝酿，也许最早10月间就可能冒头。\n\n\n不知不觉间，一条货币战争的全新战线已经隐隐出现在地平线上，多数观察家之所以尚未注意到，只不过因为局面还没有演变到参与各方已经毫无忌惮地公然操控货币政策的那个地步，而那一天却也为时不远了，也许2022年年初就会来到。\n这个结论来自著名投资人、经济学家里卡兹（Jim Rickards）。里卡兹是一位拥有万花筒般经历的人物——他在华尔街打拼数十年，最初是律师出身，在亚洲金融风暴期间恰好担任对冲基金长期资产管理公司的法律顾问，参与了推动联储主导的救援行动，使美国金融系统避免了重大损害，入行后，他又自学经济学，成为金融风险研究专家，并担任五角大楼金融战顾问。\n不过，里卡兹最为广大投资者所熟知的身份，还是财经畅销书籍作者，2012年出版的《货币战争》（Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis）尤其享有广泛影响。这样一位货币战争专家发出了前述的预警，自然让人不敢等闲视之。在最新发布的文章当中，里卡兹阐述了自己在这个问题上的看法，以下即他的文章全文。\n不久之后，这个世界大概率会经历一轮重大的市场破坏，其结果就是，美元相对于其他主要货币的汇率大幅度走高。在这种情况下，美国就将遭受双重痛苦的打击，即市场破坏带来的痛苦之外，美元急剧走强还会对美国出口，以及出口相关的就业机会构成严重冲击，在这种情况下，美国财政部就大概率会出手削弱美元了，而货币战争的大幕也将就此拉开。\n下面就来仔细分析一下这番论说所依据的宏观经济图景。\n事实就是，从2010年开始，这个世界就进入了一场隐形的低烈度货币战争当中——在2007年至2008年的全球金融危机之后，为了刺激经济，时任美国总统奥巴马开始了削弱美元的操作。\n白宫和财政部都清楚地知道，美元趋向疲软，必然会损害到欧洲和日本的经济增长前景，但是他们对此显然根本就不在乎。当然，这种想法客观上也自有其道理，毕竟美国是全球最大的经济体，如果美国经济陷入衰退，世界其他主要经济体也没有一家可以独善其身。\n在2007年至2009年罕见的大衰退之后，要确保美国经济持续复苏，避开新一轮的衰退，削弱美元就变成了重中之重的关键任务。这一次倒霉的是欧洲，美国和世界其他经济体并没有遭受太大的苦难。\n货币战争暂时休战\n美国人的政策果然奏效了。到了2011年8月，联储的贸易加权指数显示，美元汇率跌到了历史最低点。完全可以理解的是，大致就在同时，黄金价格冲上了历史最高点，欧元汇率也猛涨。至于美国经济则不必说，由此得到了急需的支撑。\n在那之后，美国才开始对欧洲释放出善意，允许美元适度走强。到了2016年10月，欧元对美元汇率降低到了1欧元兑换1.05美元。美国人当时的判断是，自己的经济已经达成了足够的强势，已经完全经得起欧元走低的冲击，有足够的空间让欧洲人去操作，推动欧元区经济反弹。\n从那之后，欧元对美元的交叉汇率基本上都是在窄幅振荡。比如，2017年7月1日，欧元对美元汇率为1欧元兑换1.18美元，几乎和四年后的今天几乎是完全一致。\n在这里，大家首先必须明白的是，所谓货币战争，不见得就只有参与双方或者各方赤膊上阵，使得交叉汇率剧烈波动，估值极端的这一种面目。货币战争也有相对风平浪静的周期，而且这样的周期还能够持续很长的时间。\n还有一点，货币战争之所以会爆发，最根本的原因不外乎债务过高，而经济增长不足，只要这种根本原因一直存在下去，总归会有这个或者那个经济体试图通过让自己的货币相对于主要贸易伙伴贬值来刺激经济增长——换言之，战争依然随时都有爆发的可能性。\n有趣的是，虽然说起来，美国很可能会在不久后着手迅速削弱美元，来作为自己的经济援救计划的一部分，但是在短期内，美元首先还会有一波坚挺的行情。这是为什么呢？\n摇摇欲坠的复苏\n问题的关键首先就在于，目前白宫和美国财政部其实并不真正了解美国经济，或者更加明确地说，他们并不知道美国经济当下疲软到了怎样的地步。众所周知，美国第二季度国内生产总值6.5%的增长速度是低于外界的广泛预期的，但是真实经济的情况，甚至要比数字所显示的更加糟糕。\n亚特兰大联储的GDPNow追踪器，其读数4月间还是13%，到了6月就降至7.5%，而众所周知，第二季度的真实经济增速是6.5%。这也就意味着，在第二季度这短短的三个月时间当中，增长前景就遭到了大幅度的削弱。这同时还说明，如果4月和5月的经济增长相对较为强势的话，那么最后一个月份6月的实际表现其实还不及季度平均的6.5%。\n这显然让人不能不对接下来的第三季度越发忧心忡忡。\n与此同时，除了万众瞩目的国内生产总值数字之外，其他同时发布的经济数据也颇多让人担心的地方。比如，由于美国人都在放手使用政府派出的刺激支票，进口一片旺盛景象。\n可是在出口一侧，故事便完全不同了，这也正说明了世界其他许多经济体的表现，其实远不及美国。用最简单直白的话来说，这些其他经济体，许多处境都非常糟糕，因此他们根本没有胃口吃下多少美国进口商品。\n局面还在继续恶化\n更加具有戏剧性的是，美国人的个人收入年化下滑速度达到了30%。从2020年10月算起，长达八个月的时间之内，私营部门收入实质上是零增长。单单看到这些已经很可怕了，而要再想到，支撑着个人收入局面的政府补贴正在一项又一项地次第到期，就让人不能不对前景越发悲观。\n失业救济的额外补贴，其消失已经进入了倒计时。禁止房主驱逐租客的命令也剩不了几十天了，而且还被贴上了违宪的标签。与此同时，薪资保障计划（PPP）的贷款已经到期了。总而言之，短期之内，也看不到大规模派发支票的新计划出炉的可能性。\n现在，政府派发现金的大潮已经到了最后阶段，而与此同时，个人收入停滞不前，出口遭遇下滑，那么，在2021年下半年，美国国内生产总值想要继续增长，还有什么可以指望？\n到了今年11月，第三季度国内生产总值报告出炉时，拜登总统和耶伦财长就会知道经济表现到底有多糟糕了。此外，到那时，他们大概率还已经领教了连续几个月通货膨胀面和就业数据面的坏消息。\n麻烦在于，到那时候再想办法去阻止经济猛烈下滑的势头，也注定将是为时已晚。还有，从政治视角看，那时距离2022年中期选举，也只剩下了不到一年。民主党方面和白宫将彻底陷入恐慌，而到那时，他们唯一能做的就是要求财政部采取一切必要手段削弱美元。\n这正是美元将在2022年变得疲软的根本逻辑。那么，在此之前，美元为何会呈现出强势呢？\n全球流动性危机\n答案是，一场全球流动性危机其实已经在进行之中了。类似这样的危机当然不可能是一夜之间发生的，而通常至少要在幕后酝酿一两年的时间，才会让市场和大众充分意识到现状到底已经变得有多严峻。\n下面就是一些值得注意的全球金融压力预警信号：\n——许多国家的政府都在减持美国国债。这当然并不是意味着美元遭到了这些国家的嫌弃，而是意味着，这些国家的银行系统急需获得美元，他们为了换取美元，已经不惜忍痛卖出美债了，而这种不得已的操作正说明他们的问题已经严重到了怎样的地步。\n——一些特定的欧元期货曲线已经略微反转，形成了所谓现货溢价。这就说明，银行和大金融机构预计，欧元区的利率走势是，短期内利率走高，而长期内利率走低，前者说明短期内金融压力将增大，后者说明长期来看，经济大概率将出现衰退。\n——自从3月以来，十年期美国国债收益率水平持续下滑，已经下跌了不少。这就说明几乎全体交易者都在因为恐惧情绪而追逐品质更高的投资对象，而且大家预计，未来经济增长将会减速，让通货膨胀压力减轻，甚至可能发生衰退。\n当然，要准确预测到全球流动性危机何时总爆发，以及其程度到底有多严重，对谁而言都是不可能完成的任务。不过，谁都必须承认的是，前述种种趋势自3月以来都愈演愈烈，意味着压力正在迅速堆积，危机正在迅速酝酿，也许最早10月间就可能冒头。\n不必说，当这场危机真正到来时，全球投资者必然会拼命追求安全，而美元和黄金届时就将大幅度走强。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3358,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":835257533,"gmtCreate":1629723694922,"gmtModify":1676530111545,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good 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