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- Thean1977Thean1977
  ·2021-06-20
  good
  Biden administration completes 300 million vaccine doses, challenges 70% adult vaccination target
  　　中新社华盛顿6月18日电美国总统拜登18日在白宫宣布，在其就任150天内，美国已完成3亿剂新冠疫苗接种。　　尽管疫情大幅改善，但美国民众的疫苗接种意愿降低，让拜登政府的另一项抗疫目标面临挑战。拜登此前提出，在7月4日前，让70%的美国成年人至少接种一剂疫苗。15个州和华盛顿特区的一剂疫苗接种率已达70%。这将成为拜登就任总统以来白宫举行的最大规模活动。
  Biden administration completes 300 million vaccine doses, challenges 70% adult vaccination target
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- Thean1977Thean1977
  ·2021-06-20
  OK
  After the resolution, the market actually went like this! Did the Fed think of it?
  德银首席外汇策略师George Saravelos认为，从收益率曲线平坦化可以看出，美联储犯了一个重大的政策错误，市场表明了对中性利率r*的极度悲观态度。
  After the resolution, the market actually went like this! Did the Fed think of it?
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15:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Biden administration completes 300 million vaccine doses, challenges 70% adult vaccination target","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144170319","media":"新浪财经","summary":"　　中新社华盛顿6月18日电 美国总统拜登18日在白宫宣布，在其就任150天内，美国已完成3亿剂新冠疫苗接种。　　尽管疫情大幅改善，但美国民众的疫苗接种意愿降低，让拜登政府的另一项抗疫目标面临挑战。拜登此前提出，在7月4日前，让70%的美国成年人至少接种一剂疫苗。15个州和华盛顿特区的一剂疫苗接种率已达70%。这将成为拜登就任总统以来白宫举行的最大规模活动。","content":"<p>(Fighting COVID-19) Biden administration completes 300 million doses of vaccination, 70% adult vaccination goal faces challenges</p><p>China News Service, Washington, June 18 (Reporter Chen Mengtong) U.S. President Joe Biden announced at the White House on the 18th that within 150 days of his inauguration, the United States has completed 300 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine.</p><p>Speaking on the pandemic that day, Biden said: \"Compared to last year, the United States is about to usher in a very different summer. A bright, pleasant summer.\"</p><p>According to the data of Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of the 18th, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceeded 33.51 million, and the number of deaths reached 601,000. Currently, the seven-day average of confirmed cases and deaths in the United States is about 12,000 and 300.</p><p>Despite the dramatic improvement in the pandemic, the decreased willingness of Americans to vaccinate has challenged another Biden administration anti-pandemic goal. Biden previously offered to have 70% of U.S. adults receive at least one dose of the vaccine by July 4. With 15 days left until the Independence Day holiday, the figure remains at 65.1%.</p><p>《<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WPO\">The Washington Post</a>The aforementioned goals may not be achieved until the summer. Currently, the U.S. seven-day average of about 1.1 million doses is well below the peak of 3.3 million doses per day.</p><p>Biden noted that areas of the U.S. with high vaccination rates have seen significant declines in deaths and hospitalizations. \"But unfortunately, in states with lower vaccination rates, new cases and hospitalizations are not going down in many places. In some places, it's actually going up.\"</p><p>According to data released by the White House on the 18th, at present, more than 175 million Americans have received at least one dose of vaccine. One-dose vaccination rates have reached 70% in 15 states and Washington, D.C. According to US media statistics, the current one-dose vaccination rate in Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, Wyoming and other places is less than 50%.</p><p>At the same time, Biden pointed out that the new coronavirus variant is a \"serious problem\" for the United States to fight the epidemic. The Covid variant will leave unvaccinated people more vulnerable than they were a month ago. In the face of high-risk and highly transmissible mutant viruses, full vaccination is still the \"best way\" to protect yourself.</p><p>\"On July 4th, we will celebrate independence from the pandemic while celebrating Independence Day. We want everyone to do it,\" Biden said.</p><p>Earlier this week, the White House revealed that on Independence Day, a thousand-person celebration would be held in the South Lawn, inviting medical staff, rescue workers and their families on the front line of the fight against the epidemic to participate. It will be the largest event held at the White House since Biden became president.</p>","source":"sina_us","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Biden administration completes 300 million vaccine doses, challenges 70% adult vaccination target</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBiden administration completes 300 million vaccine doses, challenges 70% adult vaccination target\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-19 15:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Fighting COVID-19) Biden administration completes 300 million doses of vaccination, 70% adult vaccination goal faces challenges</p><p>China News Service, Washington, June 18 (Reporter Chen Mengtong) U.S. President Joe Biden announced at the White House on the 18th that within 150 days of his inauguration, the United States has completed 300 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine.</p><p>Speaking on the pandemic that day, Biden said: \"Compared to last year, the United States is about to usher in a very different summer. A bright, pleasant summer.\"</p><p>According to the data of Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of the 18th, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceeded 33.51 million, and the number of deaths reached 601,000. Currently, the seven-day average of confirmed cases and deaths in the United States is about 12,000 and 300.</p><p>Despite the dramatic improvement in the pandemic, the decreased willingness of Americans to vaccinate has challenged another Biden administration anti-pandemic goal. Biden previously offered to have 70% of U.S. adults receive at least one dose of the vaccine by July 4. With 15 days left until the Independence Day holiday, the figure remains at 65.1%.</p><p>《<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WPO\">The Washington Post</a>The aforementioned goals may not be achieved until the summer. Currently, the U.S. seven-day average of about 1.1 million doses is well below the peak of 3.3 million doses per day.</p><p>Biden noted that areas of the U.S. with high vaccination rates have seen significant declines in deaths and hospitalizations. \"But unfortunately, in states with lower vaccination rates, new cases and hospitalizations are not going down in many places. In some places, it's actually going up.\"</p><p>According to data released by the White House on the 18th, at present, more than 175 million Americans have received at least one dose of vaccine. One-dose vaccination rates have reached 70% in 15 states and Washington, D.C. According to US media statistics, the current one-dose vaccination rate in Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, Wyoming and other places is less than 50%.</p><p>At the same time, Biden pointed out that the new coronavirus variant is a \"serious problem\" for the United States to fight the epidemic. The Covid variant will leave unvaccinated people more vulnerable than they were a month ago. In the face of high-risk and highly transmissible mutant viruses, full vaccination is still the \"best way\" to protect yourself.</p><p>\"On July 4th, we will celebrate independence from the pandemic while celebrating Independence Day. We want everyone to do it,\" Biden said.</p><p>Earlier this week, the White House revealed that on Independence Day, a thousand-person celebration would be held in the South Lawn, inviting medical staff, rescue workers and their families on the front line of the fight against the epidemic to participate. It will be the largest event held at the White House since Biden became president.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-06-19/doc-ikqcfnca1958952.shtml\">新浪财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c26835d2a08742c3de45f524c7bb8604","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-06-19/doc-ikqcfnca1958952.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144170319","content_text":"（抗击新冠肺炎）拜登政府完成3亿剂疫苗接种 70%成人接种目标迎挑战\n中新社华盛顿6月18日电 （记者 陈孟统）美国总统拜登18日在白宫宣布，在其就任150天内，美国已完成3亿剂新冠疫苗接种。\n拜登当天就疫情发表讲话说：“与去年相比，美国即将迎来一个非常不同的夏天。一个明亮的、愉悦的夏天。”\n据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学数据，截至18日，美国累计新冠确诊病例超3351万，死亡病例达60.1万。目前，美国7天平均确诊和死亡病例约为1.2万例和300例。\n尽管疫情大幅改善，但美国民众的疫苗接种意愿降低，让拜登政府的另一项抗疫目标面临挑战。拜登此前提出，在7月4日前，让70%的美国成年人至少接种一剂疫苗。距离独立日假期还剩15天，但这一数据仍为65.1%。\n《华盛顿邮报》指出，上述目标可能要到夏天才能实现。目前，美国7天平均疫苗接种量约为110万剂，远低于高峰时期的每日330万剂。\n拜登指出，美国疫苗接种率高的地区，死亡率和住院率大幅下降。“但不幸的是，在疫苗接种率较低的州，许多地方的新增病例和住院率并没有下降。在一些地方，实际在上升。”\n白宫18日公布的数据显示，目前，超过1.75亿美国人已至少接种一剂疫苗。15个州和华盛顿特区的一剂疫苗接种率已达70%。而据美国媒体统计，亚拉巴马州、路易斯安那州、密西西比州、田纳西州、怀俄明州等地目前一剂疫苗接种率不足50%。\n拜登同时指出，新冠变异病毒是美国抗击疫情的一个“严重问题”。新冠变异病毒将使未接种疫苗的人比一个月前更加脆弱。面对高危险性、高传播性的变异病毒，完全接种疫苗仍是自我保护的“最佳方法”。\n“7月4日，我们将在欢度独立日的同时，庆祝摆脱疫情而独立。我们希望每个人都能做到。”拜登如是说。\n本周早些时候，白宫对外透露，独立日当天将在南草坪举办千人规模的庆祝活动，邀请在抗疫一线的医务人员、救援人员及其家人参加。这将成为拜登就任总统以来白宫举行的最大规模活动。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1461,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164383180,"gmtCreate":1624171737840,"gmtModify":1703830124751,"author":{"id":"3581037954444712","authorId":"3581037954444712","name":"Thean1977","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/830bf68efd61f42b5606a15057d3dd49","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581037954444712","authorIdStr":"3581037954444712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/164383180","repostId":"2144709321","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144709321","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1624167977,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2144709321?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-20 13:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"After the resolution, the market actually went like this! Did the Fed think of it?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144709321","media":"智通财经网","summary":"德银首席外汇策略师George Saravelos认为，从收益率曲线平坦化可以看出，美联储犯了一个重大的政策错误，市场表明了对中性利率r*的极度悲观态度。","content":"<p>The market performance after the Fed's decision is extraordinary from any angle: the US Dollar Index has recorded the biggest one-day increase since the COVID-19 epidemic swept the world in March last year, the yield of long-term U.S. bonds has fallen to the lowest since February, and some commodity prices have fallen to new lows since March last year, but the Nasdaq has hit a record high.</p><p>Why is the market doing so unexpectedly?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>Chief foreign exchange strategist George Saravelos said in the report that the flattening of the yield curve shows that the Fed has made a major policy mistake. And this comes down to the market's extremely pessimistic view of the neutral interest rate r*, \"in other words, this is the same thesis we predicted six years ago that the Fed's rate hike cycle would end in disaster.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/531c16b22c4764b6f441ed19bd04fd96\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Why does the market have such an unexpected trend? Deutsche Bank analysts gave analysis one by one:</p><p>US dollar surge: The performance of the US dollar surge is completely in line with the traditional view that the front-end real interest rate has the greatest impact on the US Dollar Index. Expectations of the Fed's tightening of monetary policy in 2023 have been repriced, underpinning the recent strong performance of the dollar. Even if the yield on the 10-year U.S. bond did not hit a new high, it was not surprising that the US Dollar Index rebounded strongly.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55140d5c720ec904810eff37a21a9a99\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Commodity Plunge: The Fed's role in pushing up commodity prices should not be underestimated, perhaps as we can see from the current very high correlation between the dollar and base metal prices. Deutsche Bank's previous report also showed that there was a strong correlation between the Fed's balance sheet, commodity prices and inflation expectations, and the shrinkage of the balance sheet in 2013 also marked the peak of inflation expectations at that time.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16ddc2ef3dd4221af38423d4be2d5b54\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">A number of survey-based indicators, such as the University of Michigan Inflation Expectations Index, also indicate a high correlation between commodity prices and inflation expectations. The above arguments all show that the Fed's ability to influence inflation expectations through the US dollar and commodities far exceeds ordinary people's imagination.</p><p>Finally, and most importantly, the bonds and the neutral interest rate segment. As you can see from the chart below, there has been a marked distortion and flattening of the bond market in the past 48 hours, which is unusual when the Federal Reserve has not even started a rate hike.</p><p>Repeating the Fed's rate hike cycle from 2015 to 2019, although the market's pricing of interest rate hikes in 2023 and 2024 has risen, the yield after these two time points began to decline, mainly because the market believes that the most the Fed can do is rate hike in less than two years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9df9859d8bd5aaac81db8c1c1d9764e2\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"254\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This also coincides with the apparent decline in inflation expectations. In fact, the Fed took a hawkish turn even before the breakeven inflation rate reached 2014 normal range levels. And now the market has taken an extremely pessimistic view of the neutral interest rate r*.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9676f27f16093d1d7ed45606d48f0913\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In other words, if the Fed decides to move early, then market voices say that the Fed can't go far until inflation and growth reach the speed limit, which also leads to lower market expectations for interest rates after the Fed's first rate hike.</p><p>Other markets outside the bond market also reflect pessimism about the neutral interest rate r*, with the huge demand for yields from global investors driving the US dollar stronger and having a de-inflation (disinflation) impact that comes faster than expected. In other words, the global downturn in neutral interest rates has pushed US neutral rates even lower.</p><p>The low neutral interest rate is consistent with the strength of the stock market, especially growth stocks that rely heavily on medium-term discount rates. The trend of U.S. stocks in the past two days reflects the huge relative rotation from Russell 2000 to Nasdaq, but Deutsche Bank analysts warn that this is actually version 2.0 of the long-term stagnation of ten-year pricing from 2010 to 2019.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8d22b5805d705bf59b246a7ea496732\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"270\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">While a day or two of price performance does not constitute a trend, the strange signals from the market should not be ignored. Deutsche Bank analysts have been highlighting over the past few weeks that there are still many issues to be resolved from the V-shaped recovery to post-Covid stability, including the structural damage left by Covid on private sector savings rates and the new equilibrium real interest rate level. One can imagine the tragic situation of the economy without fiscal stimulus-can the United States sustain positive GDP growth without trillions of dollars in new fiscal stimulus every year? And what happens to inflation if the Fed is forced to cut interest rates before the inflationary fire extinguishes? These are all issues that the market will have to consider in the coming months.</p><p>The biggest question facing the Fed at present is whether it is possible to repeat the mistake of 1937, when the Fed thought that the U.S. economy had improved and started a rate hike, but the result was that the U.S. economy was back in trouble, and ultimately it was massive fiscal reinflation during World War II that saved everything.</p><p>But the question is, now that America's debt and deficit have risen to World War II levels, how can the U.S. government justify trillions of dollars a year in fiscal stimulus without war? When prices continue to rise in 2024 and the economy is in recession again, how will the then-Fed chairman fight inflation?</p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>After the resolution, the market actually went like this! Did the Fed think of it?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAfter the resolution, the market actually went like this! Did the Fed think of it?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-20 13:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The market performance after the Fed's decision is extraordinary from any angle: the US Dollar Index has recorded the biggest one-day increase since the COVID-19 epidemic swept the world in March last year, the yield of long-term U.S. bonds has fallen to the lowest since February, and some commodity prices have fallen to new lows since March last year, but the Nasdaq has hit a record high.</p><p>Why is the market doing so unexpectedly?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>Chief foreign exchange strategist George Saravelos said in the report that the flattening of the yield curve shows that the Fed has made a major policy mistake. And this comes down to the market's extremely pessimistic view of the neutral interest rate r*, \"in other words, this is the same thesis we predicted six years ago that the Fed's rate hike cycle would end in disaster.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/531c16b22c4764b6f441ed19bd04fd96\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Why does the market have such an unexpected trend? Deutsche Bank analysts gave analysis one by one:</p><p>US dollar surge: The performance of the US dollar surge is completely in line with the traditional view that the front-end real interest rate has the greatest impact on the US Dollar Index. Expectations of the Fed's tightening of monetary policy in 2023 have been repriced, underpinning the recent strong performance of the dollar. Even if the yield on the 10-year U.S. bond did not hit a new high, it was not surprising that the US Dollar Index rebounded strongly.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55140d5c720ec904810eff37a21a9a99\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Commodity Plunge: The Fed's role in pushing up commodity prices should not be underestimated, perhaps as we can see from the current very high correlation between the dollar and base metal prices. Deutsche Bank's previous report also showed that there was a strong correlation between the Fed's balance sheet, commodity prices and inflation expectations, and the shrinkage of the balance sheet in 2013 also marked the peak of inflation expectations at that time.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16ddc2ef3dd4221af38423d4be2d5b54\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">A number of survey-based indicators, such as the University of Michigan Inflation Expectations Index, also indicate a high correlation between commodity prices and inflation expectations. The above arguments all show that the Fed's ability to influence inflation expectations through the US dollar and commodities far exceeds ordinary people's imagination.</p><p>Finally, and most importantly, the bonds and the neutral interest rate segment. As you can see from the chart below, there has been a marked distortion and flattening of the bond market in the past 48 hours, which is unusual when the Federal Reserve has not even started a rate hike.</p><p>Repeating the Fed's rate hike cycle from 2015 to 2019, although the market's pricing of interest rate hikes in 2023 and 2024 has risen, the yield after these two time points began to decline, mainly because the market believes that the most the Fed can do is rate hike in less than two years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9df9859d8bd5aaac81db8c1c1d9764e2\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"254\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This also coincides with the apparent decline in inflation expectations. In fact, the Fed took a hawkish turn even before the breakeven inflation rate reached 2014 normal range levels. And now the market has taken an extremely pessimistic view of the neutral interest rate r*.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9676f27f16093d1d7ed45606d48f0913\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In other words, if the Fed decides to move early, then market voices say that the Fed can't go far until inflation and growth reach the speed limit, which also leads to lower market expectations for interest rates after the Fed's first rate hike.</p><p>Other markets outside the bond market also reflect pessimism about the neutral interest rate r*, with the huge demand for yields from global investors driving the US dollar stronger and having a de-inflation (disinflation) impact that comes faster than expected. In other words, the global downturn in neutral interest rates has pushed US neutral rates even lower.</p><p>The low neutral interest rate is consistent with the strength of the stock market, especially growth stocks that rely heavily on medium-term discount rates. The trend of U.S. stocks in the past two days reflects the huge relative rotation from Russell 2000 to Nasdaq, but Deutsche Bank analysts warn that this is actually version 2.0 of the long-term stagnation of ten-year pricing from 2010 to 2019.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8d22b5805d705bf59b246a7ea496732\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"270\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">While a day or two of price performance does not constitute a trend, the strange signals from the market should not be ignored. Deutsche Bank analysts have been highlighting over the past few weeks that there are still many issues to be resolved from the V-shaped recovery to post-Covid stability, including the structural damage left by Covid on private sector savings rates and the new equilibrium real interest rate level. One can imagine the tragic situation of the economy without fiscal stimulus-can the United States sustain positive GDP growth without trillions of dollars in new fiscal stimulus every year? And what happens to inflation if the Fed is forced to cut interest rates before the inflationary fire extinguishes? These are all issues that the market will have to consider in the coming months.</p><p>The biggest question facing the Fed at present is whether it is possible to repeat the mistake of 1937, when the Fed thought that the U.S. economy had improved and started a rate hike, but the result was that the U.S. economy was back in trouble, and ultimately it was massive fiscal reinflation during World War II that saved everything.</p><p>But the question is, now that America's debt and deficit have risen to World War II levels, how can the U.S. government justify trillions of dollars a year in fiscal stimulus without war? When prices continue to rise in 2024 and the economy is in recession again, how will the then-Fed chairman fight inflation?</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/497227.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85333027402a432a97137c9e6d12fcdc","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","SPY":"标普500ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","OEX":"标普100","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/497227.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2144709321","content_text":"美联储决议后的市场表现，无论从什么角度来看都非比寻常：美元指数自去年3月新冠疫情席卷全球以来创下单日最大涨幅，长端美债收益率跌至2月以来最低，部分商品价格跌至去年3月以来新低，但纳斯达克指数却创下历史新高。\n市场为何出现如此出乎意料的表现?德意志银行首席外汇策略师George Saravelos在报告中表示，从收益率曲线平坦化可以看出，美联储犯了一个重大的政策错误。而这归结为市场对中性利率r*的极度悲观看法，“换句话说，这与我们六年前预测的，美联储加息周期将以灾难结束时的论点相同。”为何市场会有如此意外走势?德银分析师一一给出分析：\n美元大涨：美元大涨的表现完全符合传统观点，即对美元指数影响最大的是前端实际利率。美联储2023年收紧货币政策的预期已经被重新定价，支撑近期美元强势的表现。即便10年期美债收益率没有创下新高，美元指数强势反弹也并不让人惊讶。商品暴跌：不应低估美联储在推升商品价格方面起到的作用，或许我们从目前美元与基金属价格之前非常高的相关性中可以看出。德银此前的报告也表明，美联储资产负债表、商品价格和通胀预期之间存在强关联性，2013年缩表也标志着当时的通胀预期顶。而多项基于调查的指标，比如密歇根大学通胀预期指数也表明商品价格与通胀预期的高关联性。上述的论据都表明，美联储通过美元和商品影响通胀预期的能力远超一般人想象。\n最后，也是最重要的，债券和中性利率的部分。从下图可以看出，在过去48小时内，债券市场出现明显的扭曲平坦化，在美联储甚至还没开始加息的时候出现这种情况非比寻常。\n重演2015年至2019年美联储加息周期，尽管市场对2023年和2024年加息定价已经上升，但这两个时间点之后的收益率开始下降，主要因市场认为美联储最多能做到的也只有在不到两年时间内加息。这也与通胀预期的明显下降相吻合。事实上，美联储甚至在盈亏平衡通胀率达到2014年正常区间水平前就出现了鹰派的转变。而现在市场对中性利率r*采取了极其悲观的看法。换句话说，如果美联储决定提前行动，那么市场的声音表示，在通胀和增长达到速度极限前，美联储无法走得很远，这也导致市场对美联储第一次加息后的利率预期下降。\n债券市场之外的其他市场也反映出对中性利率r*的悲观，全球投资者对收益率的巨大需求推动美元走强，并产生比预期来得更快的去通胀(通胀放缓，disinflation)影响。换句话说，全球中性利率的低迷将美国中性利率推得更低了。\n而低中性利率与股市走强是相一致的，特别是严重依赖中期贴现利率的成长股。过去两天美股走势反映的是从罗素2000到纳斯达克指数的巨大相对轮动，但德银分析师警告，这其实是2010年到2019年长期停滞十年定价的2.0版本。虽然一两天的价格表现并不能构成趋势，但市场发出的奇怪信号不应被忽略。德银分析师在过去几周一直强调，从V型复苏到后新冠时代的稳定状态，还有许多问题有待解决，包括新冠疫情对私营部门储蓄率，以及新均衡实际利率水平留下的结构性损伤。可以想象，没有财政刺激措施之后经济的悲惨情形——没有每年数万亿美元的新财政刺激措施，美国是否能维持正的GDP增长率?而如果美联储被迫在通胀之火熄灭前就降息，通胀率会怎样?这些都是市场在未来几个月内不得不考虑的问题。\n美联储当前面临的最大问题在于是否可能重蹈1937年覆辙，当时美联储认为美国经济已经好转，并开始启动加息，但结果是美国经济重新陷入困境，最终是二战时期的大规模财政再通胀挽救了一切。\n但问题在于，目前美国的债务和赤字都已经升至二战时的水平，没有战争，美国政府还能如何证明每年几万亿美元的财政刺激措施合理?当2024年物价继续上涨，经济再度陷入衰退，时任的美联储主席要如何抗击通胀?","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"OEF":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,"QLD":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SH":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1723,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}