To The Moon

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Inflation UpdateThis week software stocks shot up on lighter than expected inflation figures for October. The lighter inflation gave more credibility to those who argue rates will end up coming down faster than expectations. After the inflation figures came out, the 10Y dropped from ~4.7% to closer to 4.4% today. There’s generally two reasons rates will fall: 1) A belief inflation is falling and higher rates are no longer needed to curb inflation back to the 2% target. 2) Economic growth slowing (ie recession) and rates need to be lowered to stimulate the economy. While rates going lower are generally good for software valuations, in scenario 2 the headwinds of a recession probably outweigh the tailwinds of a recession. Right after the inflation print the market was singing the “inflation