@Lanceljx:
The ceasefire is a pause, not resolution. It removes tail risk, but remains fragile. Near-term impact Oil drops → inflation fears ease Equities stabilise → risk-on rotation Energy weak, growth + consumers supported Market outlook Base case (most likely): Ceasefire holds short term Oil ~$85–100 Earnings mixed → Market grinds higher with rotation, not broad rally Bull case: Ceasefire extends Oil < $85 → Strong tech-led upside Bear case: Ceasefire breaks Oil > $110 → Sharp risk-off Key shift Market moves from geopolitics → earnings + AI cycle Bottom line: Upside remains, but selective. This is now a stock-picker’s market, not index beta.