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王华77

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- 王华77王华77
  ·2021-07-16
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  Intel in talks to buy GlobalFoundries for roughly $30 billion
  7月16日讯，据知情人士透露，英特尔公司正在研究收购格芯（GlobalFoundries）的交易，此举将推动这家半导体巨头为其他科技公司生产更多芯片的计划，并被视为该公司有史以来最大的一笔收购。知情
  Intel in talks to buy GlobalFoundries for roughly $30 billion
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- 王华77王华77
  ·2021-06-28
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  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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- 王华77王华77
  ·2021-06-23
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- 王华77王华77
  ·2021-06-13
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- 王华77王华77
  ·2021-06-11
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  Didi submitted listing application, management voting rights exceeded 50%
  美东时间6月10日，滴滴出行正式向美国证券交易委员会递交IPO申请，拟于纽交所或纳斯达克挂牌上市，股票代码为“DIDI”。招股书显示，截至2021年3月，滴滴在全球15个国家4000多个城市开展业务，平台全球年活跃用户达到4.93亿。招股书显示，IPO之前，滴滴创始人、CEO程维持股7%，联合创始人、总裁柳青持股1.7%。根据中概股常规的同股不同权的安排，程维柳青合计拥有超过48%的投票权，包括程维柳青在内的滴滴管理层拥有超过50%的投票权。
  Didi submitted listing application, management voting rights exceeded 50%
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- 王华77王华77
  ·2021-05-20
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  "Cold Thinking" Under "Hot Inflation": Will Fed Policy Make a Sharp Turn?
  美国4月通胀指标上行趋势超过市场预期，亦超过基数效应。
  "Cold Thinking" Under "Hot Inflation": Will Fed Policy Make a Sharp Turn?
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06:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Intel in talks to buy GlobalFoundries for roughly $30 billion","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191369396","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月16日讯，据知情人士透露，英特尔公司正在研究收购格芯（GlobalFoundries）的交易，此举将推动这家半导体巨头为其他科技公司生产更多芯片的计划，并被视为该公司有史以来最大的一笔收购。\n知情","content":"<p>July 16th, according to people familiar with the matter,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>The company is looking at a deal to buy GlobalFoundries, a move that would boost the semiconductor giant's plans to make more chips for other tech companies and is seen as the company's biggest acquisition ever.</p><p>The deal could value GlobalFoundries at around $30 billion, people familiar with the matter said. But there is no guarantee of success, and GlobalFoundries may go ahead with an initial public offering (IPO) as planned. GlobalFoundries is owned by Mubadala Investment Co., the Abu Dhabi government Investment arm, but is headquartered in the United States. The company is not in talks with Intel, a company spokesman said.</p><p>GlobalFoundries is owned by Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund Mubadala Investments, but is based in the United States. According to research firm Trendforce, GSCN occupies about 7% of the global foundry market in terms of revenue, behind TSMC, Samsung and UMC.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/875739a63d7486f99ea8e73c95c0ec18\" tg-width=\"552\" tg-height=\"279\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It is worth noting that GC's major customers include Intel's competitor AMD. This year, the two sides reached a long-term chip assembly supply agreement worth $1.6 billion. This will greatly make Intel's merger and acquisition difficult.</p><p>Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger said in March that Intel would return to fab foundry and announced that it would invest more than $20 billion to expand wafer production facilities in the United States and also drive more investment at home and abroad.</p><p>Previously, a number of semiconductor companies announced production expansion plans. For example, TSMC invested US$100 billion in three years to expand production capacity; SK Hynix, the second largest chip factory in South Korea, has approved its $100 billion expansion plan.</p><p>Qiao An, an analyst at TrendForce Consulting, once said that the global demand for semiconductors is still strong, coupled with the tight demand for automotive semiconductors, which leads to the prolonged delivery cycle in the market conditions where most of the foundry processes are difficult to find. Production expansion has become the most direct way to solve the capacity problem.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Intel in talks to buy GlobalFoundries for roughly $30 billion</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIntel in talks to buy GlobalFoundries for roughly $30 billion\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-16 06:51</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>July 16th, according to people familiar with the matter,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>The company is looking at a deal to buy GlobalFoundries, a move that would boost the semiconductor giant's plans to make more chips for other tech companies and is seen as the company's biggest acquisition ever.</p><p>The deal could value GlobalFoundries at around $30 billion, people familiar with the matter said. But there is no guarantee of success, and GlobalFoundries may go ahead with an initial public offering (IPO) as planned. GlobalFoundries is owned by Mubadala Investment Co., the Abu Dhabi government Investment arm, but is headquartered in the United States. The company is not in talks with Intel, a company spokesman said.</p><p>GlobalFoundries is owned by Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund Mubadala Investments, but is based in the United States. According to research firm Trendforce, GSCN occupies about 7% of the global foundry market in terms of revenue, behind TSMC, Samsung and UMC.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/875739a63d7486f99ea8e73c95c0ec18\" tg-width=\"552\" tg-height=\"279\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It is worth noting that GC's major customers include Intel's competitor AMD. This year, the two sides reached a long-term chip assembly supply agreement worth $1.6 billion. This will greatly make Intel's merger and acquisition difficult.</p><p>Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger said in March that Intel would return to fab foundry and announced that it would invest more than $20 billion to expand wafer production facilities in the United States and also drive more investment at home and abroad.</p><p>Previously, a number of semiconductor companies announced production expansion plans. For example, TSMC invested US$100 billion in three years to expand production capacity; SK Hynix, the second largest chip factory in South Korea, has approved its $100 billion expansion plan.</p><p>Qiao An, an analyst at TrendForce Consulting, once said that the global demand for semiconductors is still strong, coupled with the tight demand for automotive semiconductors, which leads to the prolonged delivery cycle in the market conditions where most of the foundry processes are difficult to find. Production expansion has become the most direct way to solve the capacity problem.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c74be4c2a08964ef2daf32217f693b44","relate_stocks":{"INTC":"英特尔","09086":"华夏纳指-U","03086":"华夏纳指"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191369396","content_text":"7月16日讯，据知情人士透露，英特尔公司正在研究收购格芯（GlobalFoundries）的交易，此举将推动这家半导体巨头为其他科技公司生产更多芯片的计划，并被视为该公司有史以来最大的一笔收购。\n知情人士说，这笔交易对GlobalFoundries的估值可能在300亿美元左右。但并不能保证一定会成功，GlobalFoundries可能会按计划进行首次公开募股(IPO)。GlobalFoundries为阿布扎比政府投资机构穆巴达拉投资公司(Mubadala Investment Co.)所有，但总部设在美国。该公司发言人说，该公司没有与英特尔进行谈判。\n格芯为阿布扎比主权财富基金 Mubadala 投资公司所有，但总部设在美国。据研究机构集邦咨询（Trendforce）数据，按照营收计算，格芯在全球晶圆代工市场占据了约7%的市场份额，位于台积电、三星和联电之后。\n\n值得关注的是，格芯大客户中包括了英特尔的竞争对手AMD。在今年，双方达成了一项长期的芯片组件供应协议，其价值为16亿美元。这将大大加大英特尔的并购难度。\n英特尔首席执行官帕特·基辛格(Pat Gelsinger)在三月份表示，英特尔将重返晶圆厂代工，并宣布将投入超 200亿美元，扩大美国的晶圆生产设备，也会在海內外推动更多投资。\n此前有多家半导体企业宣布了扩产计划，例如台积电三年内投资1000亿美元用于扩大产能；韩国第二大芯片厂SK海力士千亿美元扩产计划获批。\n集邦咨询分析师乔安曾表示，全球半导体需求仍然强劲，加上车用半导体需求吃紧，导致晶圆代工各制程产能多半难求的市况下，交付周期延长。扩产成为解决产能问题的最直接方法。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"INTC":0.9,"09086":0.9,"03086":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3487,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150370956,"gmtCreate":1624888537575,"gmtModify":1703847122202,"author":{"id":"3581890431374693","authorId":"3581890431374693","name":"王华77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdfbe111612069ded1cd8fb78257fbe7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581890431374693","authorIdStr":"3581890431374693"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?&nbsp;","listText":"?&nbsp;","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/150370956","repostId":"1198246953","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3538,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123040614,"gmtCreate":1624404766938,"gmtModify":1703835487804,"author":{"id":"3581890431374693","authorId":"3581890431374693","name":"王华77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdfbe111612069ded1cd8fb78257fbe7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581890431374693","authorIdStr":"3581890431374693"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/123040614","repostId":"2145494066","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3525,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182625059,"gmtCreate":1623570643871,"gmtModify":1704206432036,"author":{"id":"3581890431374693","authorId":"3581890431374693","name":"王华77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdfbe111612069ded1cd8fb78257fbe7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581890431374693","authorIdStr":"3581890431374693"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182625059","repostId":"1159028389","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3170,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181102451,"gmtCreate":1623376765173,"gmtModify":1704202012067,"author":{"id":"3581890431374693","authorId":"3581890431374693","name":"王华77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdfbe111612069ded1cd8fb78257fbe7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581890431374693","authorIdStr":"3581890431374693"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?&nbsp;","listText":"?&nbsp;","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/181102451","repostId":"1179767026","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179767026","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623361009,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1179767026?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-11 05:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Didi submitted listing application, management voting rights exceeded 50%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179767026","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"美东时间6月10日，滴滴出行正式向美国证券交易委员会递交IPO申请，拟于纽交所或纳斯达克挂牌上市，股票代码为“DIDI”。招股书显示，截至2021年3月，滴滴在全球15个国家4000多个城市开展业务，平台全球年活跃用户达到4.93亿。招股书显示，IPO之前，滴滴创始人、CEO程维持股7%，联合创始人、总裁柳青持股1.7%。根据中概股常规的同股不同权的安排，程维柳青合计拥有超过48%的投票权，包括程维柳青在内的滴滴管理层拥有超过50%的投票权。","content":"<p>On June 10th, Eastern Time, DIDI Chuxing officially submitted an IPO application to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and planned to be listed on the New York Stock Exchange or Nasdaq with the stock code \"DIDI\". According to the prospectus, as of March 2021, Didi operated in more than 4,000 cities in 15 countries around the world, and the global annual active users of the platform reached 493 million.</p><p>According to the prospectus, before the IPO, Cheng Wei, founder and CEO of Didi, held 7% of the shares, and Liu Qing, co-founder and president, held 1.7%. Pursuant to the conventional arrangement of different rights of the same shares of China Concept Shares, Cheng Wei Liuqing in aggregate owns more than 48% of the voting rights and the management of Didi, including Cheng Wei Liuqing, owns more than 50% of the voting rights.</p><p>At present, many domestic Internet companies such as JD.COM, Xiaomi and Pinduoduo have adopted the model of AB shares, that is, the same shares have different rights. It is precisely through this that the shares owned by founders such as Liu Qiangdong, Lei Jun and Huang Zheng can firmly control the company, although they have not reached the level of absolute control.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Didi submitted listing application, management voting rights exceeded 50%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDidi submitted listing application, management voting rights exceeded 50%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-11 05:36</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On June 10th, Eastern Time, DIDI Chuxing officially submitted an IPO application to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and planned to be listed on the New York Stock Exchange or Nasdaq with the stock code \"DIDI\". According to the prospectus, as of March 2021, Didi operated in more than 4,000 cities in 15 countries around the world, and the global annual active users of the platform reached 493 million.</p><p>According to the prospectus, before the IPO, Cheng Wei, founder and CEO of Didi, held 7% of the shares, and Liu Qing, co-founder and president, held 1.7%. Pursuant to the conventional arrangement of different rights of the same shares of China Concept Shares, Cheng Wei Liuqing in aggregate owns more than 48% of the voting rights and the management of Didi, including Cheng Wei Liuqing, owns more than 50% of the voting rights.</p><p>At present, many domestic Internet companies such as JD.COM, Xiaomi and Pinduoduo have adopted the model of AB shares, that is, the same shares have different rights. It is precisely through this that the shares owned by founders such as Liu Qiangdong, Lei Jun and Huang Zheng can firmly control the company, although they have not reached the level of absolute control.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf210b0a9da00c82cb2c925171714e26","relate_stocks":{"DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179767026","content_text":"美东时间6月10日，滴滴出行正式向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）递交IPO申请，拟于纽交所或纳斯达克挂牌上市，股票代码为“DIDI”。招股书显示，截至2021年3月，滴滴在全球15个国家4000多个城市开展业务，平台全球年活跃用户达到4.93亿。\n招股书显示，IPO之前，滴滴创始人、CEO程维持股7%，联合创始人、总裁柳青持股1.7%。根据中概股常规的同股不同权的安排，程维柳青合计拥有超过48%的投票权，包括程维柳青在内的滴滴管理层拥有超过50%的投票权。\n目前国内京东、小米、拼多多等多家互联网公司都采用了AB股即同股不同权的模式，刘强东、雷军、黄峥等创始人也正是借此拥有的股份尽管没有达到绝对控股的程度，却能够牢牢地掌控住公司。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DIDI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3965,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":197762979,"gmtCreate":1621486831691,"gmtModify":1704358426903,"author":{"id":"3581890431374693","authorId":"3581890431374693","name":"王华77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdfbe111612069ded1cd8fb78257fbe7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581890431374693","authorIdStr":"3581890431374693"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?&nbsp;","listText":"?&nbsp;","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197762979","repostId":"1199499763","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199499763","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621485133,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1199499763?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-20 12:32","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"\"Cold Thinking\" Under \"Hot Inflation\": Will Fed Policy Make a Sharp Turn?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199499763","media":"钟正生经济分析","summary":"美国4月通胀指标上行趋势超过市场预期，亦超过基数效应。","content":"<p><b>Abstract</b></p><p>The upward trend of inflation indicators in the United States in April exceeded market expectations and the base effect. Under the background of the recent resumption of commodity prices, the market's worries about inflation in the United States have further intensified, and the worries about the Fed's \"misjudgment\" of inflation have also appeared.</p><p>Putting aside the intuitive feeling of \"hot inflation\", starting from the US inflation indicator, we will study and judge the trend of CPI and PCE in the next year, and then further think about what choice the Federal Reserve will make in the face of the rising inflation indicator.</p><p><b>1. Why did the CPI index of the United States soar in April?</b>According to the CPI sub-data in April, there was a \"temporary\" surge in demand when the US economy restarted, such as the faster rise in demand for food, beverage and transportation. Among them, the used car and truck index rose by 10% month-on-month, the largest monthly increase since the index was generated, and this sub-item contributed more than 1/3 to the total CPI index. The reasons for the soaring price of used cars are mostly \"temporary\":</p><p>1) The rental car company has a low supply of used cars. New cars from rental car companies in the United States are generally sold as used cars after a year (or less), and the 2020 pandemic forced rental car companies to slash new car purchases, resulting in a sharp drop in the number of used cars currently entering the market. 2) The recent chip shortage indirectly affects the supply of used cars. 3) Social distancing increases used car demand. 4) Economic risks and consumption downgrade increase the demand for used cars.<b>2. Research and judgment of the trend of CPI in the United States.</b>Qualitative judgment: In May, the price increase of used cars may slow down, and the prices of energy goods and services are expected to rise further. In May, the CPI may still be positive month-on-month, but the growth rate is likely to be less than that in April. According to quantitative calculation, it is estimated that the U.S. CPI in May will be about 4.4% year-on-year, and the CPI growth rate in 2021 will be 3.2% year-on-year.</p><p><u>However, after getting rid of the base effect in 2022, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in the United States is expected to return to around 2%, and the CPI is expected to be 2.4% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2022.</u></p><p><b>3. The correlation between US CPI and PCE.</b>The PCE is an inflation gauge that the Fed is more concerned about. The trend of PCE and CPI in the United States has a high synchronization,<u>However, the volatility of PCE is usually less than that of CPI, and the monthly year-over-year growth rate of PCE is usually lower</u>。 Reasons behind:</p><p>1) Formula effect. The measurement method of PCE considers the substitution effect between commodities after price change more than CPI. 2) Weighting effect. For example, the weight importance of housing in the PCE is significantly less than the CPI. According to the data since 2019, the \"weight effect\" is the main factor that makes the trend of PCE and CPI different, which makes the fluctuation of PCE less than that of CPI, that is, the weight effect will inhibit PCE from going too high to a certain extent when CPI rises. 3) Range effect. For example, insurance provided by an employer, government health insurance, etc., are only included in the PCE. 4) Other effects. The seasonal adjustment methods of PCE and CPI are different.<b>4. Research and judgment of PCE trend in the United States.</b></p><p>Historically, when the CPI surged, the CPI data since 2000 had strong predictive ability for PCE. Considering the base effect and the correlation between CPI and PCE, we predict that the year-on-year value of PCE will be in the range of 3.0-3.3% in April 2021, 3.0-3.5% in May, 2.4-2.6% in 2021, and is expected to fall back to around 2% or below in the first quarter of 2022.</p><p><b>5. Thoughts on the trend of inflation in the United States and the policy of the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p>There are many factors that support the Fed's judgment that inflation is only \"temporary\". Let's add four important thinking dimensions.<b>First, the judgment of this round of commodity cycle. Second, the stabilizing effect of international trade on prices. Third, the sustainability of the fiscal stimulus effect of the United States. Fourth, the Fed's policy strategy.</b></p><p>(In order of the Fed from \"calm\" to \"panicked\") There are at least five types of scenarios that may make the Fed (at least externally) ignore inflation:</p><p>1) The Fed clearly believes that inflationary pressures will be temporary. 2) (More likely) The Federal Reserve is unsure whether inflation is temporary, so it chooses to \"stand still\" for further observation and analysis. 3) (More likely) The Federal Reserve judges that the inflation risk is high, but believes that keeping employment is more important than preventing inflation, so it has no choice but to \"stand still\". 4) The Federal Reserve judges that the inflation risk is high, but it does not want to bear the \"pot\" of excessive fiscal stimulus. 5) The Federal Reserve judges that the inflation risk is high, but it appeases the market slightly \"against its will\", and may have secretly (or will soon) begun to discuss reducing QE.<u>If the Fed stays dovish, short-term risk assets may still be positive</u>, interpretation of \"Drunk today with wine\". However, the suspicion of the market is likely to heat up. It will be very difficult for the Fed to communicate with the market in the future, and the market may easily adjust its expectation of the Fed's policy to be more \"conservative\" (that is, it is predicted that the Fed's policy will turn ahead of schedule). Therefore, the risk of the market experiencing volatility and correction in the next 1-2 months may increase.</p><p>On May 12-13, 2021, U.S. CPI and PPI data were released one after another, and the rise exceeded market expectations. After the announcement of CPI on May 12th, the market fluctuated violently. The three major U.S. stock indexes all fell by more than 2%. The S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) hit a new high in nearly two months, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield jumped 5bp to 1.69%.</p><p><b>After the release of the CPI indicator, many officials of the Federal Reserve made urgent speeches to stabilize market sentiment and continue to bear on inflation risks.</b>Market panic seemed to fade quickly on May 13-14, with stocks rebounding and the yield on the 10-year U.S. bond falling back to 1.63%.</p><p>It is true that the current inflation indicator in the United States has exceeded market expectations and the base effect. Moreover, under the background of the recent restart of commodities, the market's worries about inflation in the United States have further intensified, and the worries about the Fed's \"misjudgment\" of inflation have also appeared.<b>But does this mean that the inflation level in the United States will continue to rise, and will the Federal Reserve be forced to \"take action\"?</b></p><p>We try to put aside the intuitive feeling of \"hot inflation\" and carry out a series of \"cold thinking\":<b>Starting from the US inflation indicator (due to the limited attention and information of PPI, we mainly discuss CPI and PCE), why did the US CPI rise in April and can it be sustained? How does the US CPI correlate with the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure Index), an inflation measure that the Federal Reserve is more concerned about? How will the Fed respond to the rise in inflation measures?</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d815795b7fa898d0d8ab1231d28b34b5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>I. Interpretation of CPI and CPI Trend in April in the United States</b></p><p><b>1. Why did the CPI index in the United States soar in April: The story behind the price increase of used cars</b></p><p>In April, the CPI of the United States was 4.2% year-on-year, the highest growth rate since September 2008; 0.8% sequentially, compared to market expectations of 0.2%. Core CPI in April was 3.0% year-on-year; 0.9% sequentially, compared to market expectations of 0.3%. Overall, the growth rate of US CPI and core CPI in April greatly exceeded market expectations.</p><p>From January to April 2021, the month-on-month growth rate of CPI in the United States was 0.3%, 0.4%, 0.6% and 0.8%, respectively, with an average of 0.5%, while the monthly average month-on-month CPI in 2015-2019 and 2016-2019 was only 0.15% and 0.18%, respectively. It can be seen that the reason for the soaring CPI in the United States in 2021 is not only as simple as the base effect.</p><p>In April, the sub-item performance of US CPI showed three characteristics:</p><p><b>First, the price increase of used cars is the main pull.</b>The used car and truck index rose by 10% month-on-month, which was the largest monthly increase since the CPI index was generated in 1953. The previous value was only 0.5%. This sub-item pulled the total CPI index in April by more than 1/3. The price of used cars has significantly boosted the commodity sub-item and even the core CPI.</p><p><b>Why are the prices of used cars in the United States skyrocketing? Most of them are the \"temporary\" contradiction between supply and demand after the epidemic:</b></p><p>1) The rental car company has insufficient supply of used cars. New cars from American rental cars are generally sold as used cars after a year (or less). While the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 forced car rental companies to slash new car purchases, resulting in a sharp drop in the number of used cars currently entering the market.</p><p>2) The recent chip shortage indirectly affects the supply of used cars. Chip shortages have slowed the pace of new car manufacturing, and then the pace of used car turnover has slowed down, and the number of used cars put on the market is even more limited.</p><p>3) Social distancing increases used car demand. After the epidemic, a large number of residents reduced public transportation trips, telework, and moved to suburbs, and the demand for used cars increased.</p><p>4) Economic risks and consumption downgrade increase the demand for used cars. To save money during unstable economic times, especially with historically high prices for new cars and trucks, U.S. residents tend to opt for used vehicles.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/434743dea03c373e95b3ca9b6572d174\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, energy prices fell instead of rising from the previous month.</b>In April, the energy sub-item decreased slightly by 0.1% month-on-month, and energy products (-1.4%), gasoline (-1.4%) and crude oil (-3.2%) all decreased month-on-month, which deviates from the recent intuitive rise in commodity prices. However, all energy products sub-items still rose sharply by 25.1% year-on-year, and the weight of this sub-item in CPI was 6.9%, contributing 1.73 percentage points to the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in April.</p><p><b>Third, transportation services led the increase in service sub-items.</b>In April, the transportation service sub-items increased by 2.9% month-on-month, significantly ahead of the ahead value by 1.8%; A year-on-year increase of 5.6%, significantly exceeding the year-on-year increase of 2.5% for all service segments. Among them, aviation expenses and motor vehicle insurance rose by 10.2% and 2.5% respectively. The transportation sub-item has an important pull on all service sub-items and even the core CPI.</p><p>On the whole, the April CPI data reflects that,<b>The restart of the U.S. economy saw a \"temporary\" surge in demand, reflected in a faster rise in demand for food, beverage and transportation.</b>With the epidemic control and the recovery of offline consumption and travel scenarios in the United States, it is understandable that the associated demand growth drives the short-term price rise.</p><p><b>2. Research and judgment of US CPI trend: base effect and \"temporary\" factors</b></p><p>We expect that the month-on-month growth rate of CPI in the United States is expected to slow down in May 2021, CPI may decline significantly year-on-year in the second half of the year, and CPI is expected to return to \"normal\" in 2022.</p><p>First, for used cars and trucks, the above-mentioned contradiction between supply and demand may lead to high prices in 2021,<b>But it is difficult to rise quickly again in May month-on-month.</b>Moreover, the contradiction between supply and demand is mostly \"temporary\", which is expected to be basically eliminated in 2022, helping the growth rate of US CPI and core CPI to drop in 2022.</p><p>Second, although the energy sub-item declined month-on-month in April, combined with the bulk rise after mid-April, the energy sub-item may rise month-on-month in May. However, we are cautious about the medium and long-term trend of energy prices (especially crude oil), mainly because the elasticity of international crude oil supply is still strong at this stage, and the growth rate of energy sub-items in 2022 is likely to return to at least the historical average level.</p><p>Third, the sub-price of services is likely to rise further due to the continued improvement of the epidemic situation and the recovery of consumption scenarios in the United States. However, the question that needs to be considered at present is, what is the relationship between the recovery of service consumption and commodity consumption in the United States, and are they more \"complementary products\" or \"substitutes\"?</p><p>We believe that with the recovery of service consumption, the strong consumption of durable goods in the United States may fall from the previous month, and the consumption of non-durable goods may flatten under the hedging effect of complementarity and substitution.</p><p>On the whole, the US CPI may still be positive month-on-month in May, but the high probability is less than the growth rate in April. This means that the year-over-year CPI reading in May is likely to be a little higher than in April due to the base. However, after getting rid of the base effect in 2022, the year-on-year growth rate of U.S. CPI is expected to return to around 2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/562a892c44ea2161d2b38056da660770\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"832\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, the correlation between CPI and PCE in the United States and the judgment of PCE trend</b></p><p><b>1. Correlation between CPI and PCE in the United States: systematic differences</b></p><p>The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE) is the inflation gauge that the Fed is more concerned about. Its relationship to CPI is:</p><p>1) In terms of statistical sources, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is responsible for counting CPI, according to the questionnaire of consumers; The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is responsible for counting and measuring PCEs based on the CPI values collected by the BLS and other information it collects.</p><p>2) Functionally,<b>Both are measures of prices.</b>CPI may receive more attention, its statistical history is longer, and it is more widely used in the United States, such as the adjustment of social security expenditure and the adjustment of interest rates of many financial products (such as TIPS inflation-protected Treasury Bond). And PCE is the reference basis of the Fed's inflation target.</p><p>3) Looking at the trend of indicators,<b>Historically, the trend of PCE and CPI has a high synchronization, but the volatility of PCE is usually less than that of CPI, and the monthly year-on-year growth rate of PCE is systematically lower than that of CPI.</b>We calculate that from January 2000 to March 2021, the correlation coefficient between PCE and CPI (month-on-month growth rate, the same below) in the United States is 0.983, and the correlation coefficient between core PCE and core CPI is 0.966; The monthly volatility of PCE was 0.93% year-over-year and the volatility of CPI was 1.23%; The month-over-month PCE average is 1.81% and the CPI average is 2.12%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11f02447cc98b24312c9cd9fe75b47ba\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to the official data of the Federal Reserve, there are four reasons for the difference between PCE and CPI values:</p><p><b>1) formula effect,</b>The calculation of PCE is based on the chain Fisher formula, while the CPI is based on the modified Laspeyres formula. The key difference is that PCE takes into account the substitution effect between commodities after price changes more than CPI. For example, when the price of a commodity rises and residents' purchases decrease, the PCE calculation will use a new \"basket\" to reflect the changes in people's consumption behavior.</p><p><b>2) weighting effect,</b>That is, the same goods in two \"baskets\" are assigned different weights. The weight of CPI uses the weight in the survey of residents' purchases, while PCE uses the weight in the survey of products sold by enterprises. For example, the weight of housing in the U.S. PCE is significantly smaller than that of CPI, and the seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter annual rate of PCE in 2021Q1 was 0.31 percentage points lower than that of CPI due to different housing weights.</p><p>According to the data since 2019, the \"weight effect\" is the main factor that makes the trend of PCE and CPI different, which makes the fluctuation of PCE less than that of CPI, that is, the weight effect will inhibit PCE from going too high to a certain extent when CPI rises.</p><p><b>3) range effect,</b>That is, the two \"baskets\" cover different goods. The CPI only covers out-of-pocket expenditures for residents to purchase goods and services, while the PCE also covers expenditures for nonprofit agencies serving families. For example, insurance provided by an employer, government health insurance, etc., are only included in the PCE.</p><p><b>4) other effects,</b>Including seasonally adjusted differences, price differences and residual differences, etc. The seasonal adjustment methods of PCE and CPI are different.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/183c32625966a0b7ca483a37388c65f0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"673\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>2. Research and judgment of PCE trend in the United States: forecast based on CPI data</b></p><p>The US CPI data since 2000 has strong prediction ability for PCE. We attempted to use two sets of US CPI monthly year-on-year data to fit the OLS model to the US PCE monthly year-on-year (Fit 1 uses the data from January 1960 to March 2021, and Fit 2 uses the data from January 2000 to March 2021), and focused on the fitting situation of the period of CPI higher since 1990 (more than 2% month-on-month year).</p><p>We found that the PCE fitting values based on CPI data since 2000 are more compatible with the actual values. Especially in the period when the year-on-year growth rate of CPI is soaring, it can usually be observed that the actual growth rate of CPI> PCE fitting 1> PCE fitting 2> = actual growth rate of PCE (Chart 7). Based on April U.S. CPI month-over-month (4.2%), the April PCE fit for the two models is 3.7% and 3.3%, respectively.</p><p>Considering the base effect and the correlation between CPI and PCE, we predict that the year-on-year PCE value in April 2021 will be in the range of 3.0-3.3%, the year-on-year PCE value in May will be in the range of 3.0-3.5% (or a full-year high), and the year-on-year PCE value in 2021 will be in the range of 2.4-2.6% (slightly higher than the median Fed forecast of 2.4% in March). The year-on-year PCE growth rate in the first quarter of 2022 is expected to fall back to around 2% or below.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d593ef0e3bd5ca806708e8683a5c5e8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"578\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84a5323627607cfa343eba4f82e43254\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"878\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Third, Thinking on the Inflation Trend of the United States and the Federal Reserve Policy</b></p><p>After the U.S. CPI was released in April, Fed officials \"didn't hesitate\" to bear on inflation risks.<u>Bloomberg posted a note that</u><u><b>Six factors may support the Fed's judgment: inflation expectations, sluggish employment, price stickiness, disruptive technology, pricing power and the base effect</b></u><b>。</b>On this basis, we add additional<b>Four Important Dimensions of Thinking</b>：</p><p><b>First, the judgment of this round of commodity cycle.</b>We are more cautious about this commodity cycle (refer to the report \"Is the\" super cycle \"of commodities coming?\").</p><p>The key reason is that the driving force of this round of commodity price increase is more on the supply side than on the demand side. In this round of commodity cycle, the only thing that is expected to become the \"super engine\" of the global demand side may be the total demand driven by the transformation of \"green economy\" in China, the United States and even the world. However, there is still great uncertainty about whether the release rhythm of this process can be faster than the self-regulation of the supply side.</p><p><b>Second, the stabilizing effect of international trade on prices.</b>Beginning in the second half of 2020, the economic recovery in Europe and the United States has boosted exports from global emerging markets, especially Asia. In the first quarter of 2021, the U.S. trade deficit widened to a record, Asian exports remained strong, and European manufacturing quietly gained momentum.</p><p><b>The US under Biden is expected to be more open to international trade, and commodity price pressures could also serve as a catalyst for countries to repair trade relations,</b>For example, on May 17th, the metal tariff war between the EU and the United States was announced to be suspended. In this way, in the future, the United States is expected to continue to control its own consumption and production costs through international division of labor, and curb inflation to a certain extent.</p><p><b>Third, the sustainability of the fiscal stimulus effect of the United States.</b>On the one hand, Biden's $1.9 trillion bailout bill introduced in January was a \"one-off.\" Recently, with the unsatisfactory recovery of the job market, many states in the United States have begun to reduce or suspend the payment of unemployment benefits. On the other hand, the Republican Party's attitude towards Biden's infrastructure plan has been further clarified recently. For example, the media expects that the scale of the revised infrastructure plan to be announced by the Republican Party on May 18th will be only $568 billion, which is only a quarter of Biden's 2.3 trillion proposal.</p><p>What's more, the phenomenon of \"slow employment + fast inflation\" shown by the just-released US economic data in April may further trigger public controversy about the effect and side effects of fiscal stimulus. If the scale of infrastructure projects shrinks significantly in the future, whether it is its uplifting effect on the inflation center of the United States or its blow to public inflation expectations, it may further curb the rise of inflation.</p><p><b>Fourth, the Fed's policy strategy.</b>For the future inflation trend, except for the \"base effect\", which is an \"objective problem\" that can be solved through careful calculation, the rest are mostly \"subjective problems\". We believe that if you break it down (in order of the Fed from \"calm\" to \"flustered\"), there are at least five types of scenarios that may make the Fed (at least externally) ignore inflation:</p><p><b>First, the Federal Reserve currently has a clear judgment that the inflationary pressure in the United States will be temporary and controllable.</b></p><p><b>Second (more likely), the Fed is unsure whether inflation is temporary, but it is worrying that it is difficult to determine the inflation risk based on the higher CPI in April.</b>In the midst of \"uncertainty\", the most sensible choice is to \"stand still\" for further observation and analysis.</p><p><b>Third (more likely), the Federal Reserve may have judged that the inflation risk is high, but the foundation for employment and the recovery of the real economy is not yet solid, and believes that maintaining employment is more important than preventing inflation.</b>Therefore, I have no choice but to \"stand still\".</p><p><b>Fourth, the Federal Reserve may have judged that the inflation risk is high, but believes that it is not caused by monetary policy, but the \"pot\" of excessive fiscal stimulus by the Biden administration.</b>Then try to maintain the rhythm of \"no sharp turns\", in order to demonstrate the rationality of monetary policy.</p><p><b>Fifth, the Fed may have judged that the inflation risk is high, but considering that monetary policy needs to \"not turn sharply\" to avoid causing market shocks under \"austerity panic\",</b>So I have to appease the market a little \"against my will\", but I may have secretly started (or will soon) discussing QE reduction.</p><p><b>But in any case, two things can be more certain: First, there is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will not \"make a sharp turn\". Second, we should be alert to the risk of market volatility.</b></p><p>In the short term, if the Federal Reserve remains dovish, the market risk appetite may not necessarily drop significantly, and risk assets may still perform positively, interpreting \"there is wine today and we are drunk today\". However, when the Fed and the market are faced with too many \"subjective questions\", the suspicion of the market is likely to heat up, which at least means that it will be very difficult for the Fed to communicate with the market in the future.</p><p>Further, the market may easily adjust its expectation of the Fed's policy rhythm to be more \"conservative\", that is, it predicts that the Fed's policy will shift ahead of schedule. Therefore, the risk of the market experiencing volatility and correction in the next 1-2 months may increase.</p>","source":"lsy1602814587747","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"Cold Thinking\" Under \"Hot Inflation\": Will Fed Policy Make a Sharp Turn?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Cold Thinking\" Under \"Hot Inflation\": Will Fed Policy Make a Sharp Turn?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">钟正生经济分析</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-20 12:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Abstract</b></p><p>The upward trend of inflation indicators in the United States in April exceeded market expectations and the base effect. Under the background of the recent resumption of commodity prices, the market's worries about inflation in the United States have further intensified, and the worries about the Fed's \"misjudgment\" of inflation have also appeared.</p><p>Putting aside the intuitive feeling of \"hot inflation\", starting from the US inflation indicator, we will study and judge the trend of CPI and PCE in the next year, and then further think about what choice the Federal Reserve will make in the face of the rising inflation indicator.</p><p><b>1. Why did the CPI index of the United States soar in April?</b>According to the CPI sub-data in April, there was a \"temporary\" surge in demand when the US economy restarted, such as the faster rise in demand for food, beverage and transportation. Among them, the used car and truck index rose by 10% month-on-month, the largest monthly increase since the index was generated, and this sub-item contributed more than 1/3 to the total CPI index. The reasons for the soaring price of used cars are mostly \"temporary\":</p><p>1) The rental car company has a low supply of used cars. New cars from rental car companies in the United States are generally sold as used cars after a year (or less), and the 2020 pandemic forced rental car companies to slash new car purchases, resulting in a sharp drop in the number of used cars currently entering the market. 2) The recent chip shortage indirectly affects the supply of used cars. 3) Social distancing increases used car demand. 4) Economic risks and consumption downgrade increase the demand for used cars.<b>2. Research and judgment of the trend of CPI in the United States.</b>Qualitative judgment: In May, the price increase of used cars may slow down, and the prices of energy goods and services are expected to rise further. In May, the CPI may still be positive month-on-month, but the growth rate is likely to be less than that in April. According to quantitative calculation, it is estimated that the U.S. CPI in May will be about 4.4% year-on-year, and the CPI growth rate in 2021 will be 3.2% year-on-year.</p><p><u>However, after getting rid of the base effect in 2022, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in the United States is expected to return to around 2%, and the CPI is expected to be 2.4% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2022.</u></p><p><b>3. The correlation between US CPI and PCE.</b>The PCE is an inflation gauge that the Fed is more concerned about. The trend of PCE and CPI in the United States has a high synchronization,<u>However, the volatility of PCE is usually less than that of CPI, and the monthly year-over-year growth rate of PCE is usually lower</u>。 Reasons behind:</p><p>1) Formula effect. The measurement method of PCE considers the substitution effect between commodities after price change more than CPI. 2) Weighting effect. For example, the weight importance of housing in the PCE is significantly less than the CPI. According to the data since 2019, the \"weight effect\" is the main factor that makes the trend of PCE and CPI different, which makes the fluctuation of PCE less than that of CPI, that is, the weight effect will inhibit PCE from going too high to a certain extent when CPI rises. 3) Range effect. For example, insurance provided by an employer, government health insurance, etc., are only included in the PCE. 4) Other effects. The seasonal adjustment methods of PCE and CPI are different.<b>4. Research and judgment of PCE trend in the United States.</b></p><p>Historically, when the CPI surged, the CPI data since 2000 had strong predictive ability for PCE. Considering the base effect and the correlation between CPI and PCE, we predict that the year-on-year value of PCE will be in the range of 3.0-3.3% in April 2021, 3.0-3.5% in May, 2.4-2.6% in 2021, and is expected to fall back to around 2% or below in the first quarter of 2022.</p><p><b>5. Thoughts on the trend of inflation in the United States and the policy of the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p>There are many factors that support the Fed's judgment that inflation is only \"temporary\". Let's add four important thinking dimensions.<b>First, the judgment of this round of commodity cycle. Second, the stabilizing effect of international trade on prices. Third, the sustainability of the fiscal stimulus effect of the United States. Fourth, the Fed's policy strategy.</b></p><p>(In order of the Fed from \"calm\" to \"panicked\") There are at least five types of scenarios that may make the Fed (at least externally) ignore inflation:</p><p>1) The Fed clearly believes that inflationary pressures will be temporary. 2) (More likely) The Federal Reserve is unsure whether inflation is temporary, so it chooses to \"stand still\" for further observation and analysis. 3) (More likely) The Federal Reserve judges that the inflation risk is high, but believes that keeping employment is more important than preventing inflation, so it has no choice but to \"stand still\". 4) The Federal Reserve judges that the inflation risk is high, but it does not want to bear the \"pot\" of excessive fiscal stimulus. 5) The Federal Reserve judges that the inflation risk is high, but it appeases the market slightly \"against its will\", and may have secretly (or will soon) begun to discuss reducing QE.<u>If the Fed stays dovish, short-term risk assets may still be positive</u>, interpretation of \"Drunk today with wine\". However, the suspicion of the market is likely to heat up. It will be very difficult for the Fed to communicate with the market in the future, and the market may easily adjust its expectation of the Fed's policy to be more \"conservative\" (that is, it is predicted that the Fed's policy will turn ahead of schedule). Therefore, the risk of the market experiencing volatility and correction in the next 1-2 months may increase.</p><p>On May 12-13, 2021, U.S. CPI and PPI data were released one after another, and the rise exceeded market expectations. After the announcement of CPI on May 12th, the market fluctuated violently. The three major U.S. stock indexes all fell by more than 2%. The S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) hit a new high in nearly two months, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield jumped 5bp to 1.69%.</p><p><b>After the release of the CPI indicator, many officials of the Federal Reserve made urgent speeches to stabilize market sentiment and continue to bear on inflation risks.</b>Market panic seemed to fade quickly on May 13-14, with stocks rebounding and the yield on the 10-year U.S. bond falling back to 1.63%.</p><p>It is true that the current inflation indicator in the United States has exceeded market expectations and the base effect. Moreover, under the background of the recent restart of commodities, the market's worries about inflation in the United States have further intensified, and the worries about the Fed's \"misjudgment\" of inflation have also appeared.<b>But does this mean that the inflation level in the United States will continue to rise, and will the Federal Reserve be forced to \"take action\"?</b></p><p>We try to put aside the intuitive feeling of \"hot inflation\" and carry out a series of \"cold thinking\":<b>Starting from the US inflation indicator (due to the limited attention and information of PPI, we mainly discuss CPI and PCE), why did the US CPI rise in April and can it be sustained? How does the US CPI correlate with the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure Index), an inflation measure that the Federal Reserve is more concerned about? How will the Fed respond to the rise in inflation measures?</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d815795b7fa898d0d8ab1231d28b34b5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>I. Interpretation of CPI and CPI Trend in April in the United States</b></p><p><b>1. Why did the CPI index in the United States soar in April: The story behind the price increase of used cars</b></p><p>In April, the CPI of the United States was 4.2% year-on-year, the highest growth rate since September 2008; 0.8% sequentially, compared to market expectations of 0.2%. Core CPI in April was 3.0% year-on-year; 0.9% sequentially, compared to market expectations of 0.3%. Overall, the growth rate of US CPI and core CPI in April greatly exceeded market expectations.</p><p>From January to April 2021, the month-on-month growth rate of CPI in the United States was 0.3%, 0.4%, 0.6% and 0.8%, respectively, with an average of 0.5%, while the monthly average month-on-month CPI in 2015-2019 and 2016-2019 was only 0.15% and 0.18%, respectively. It can be seen that the reason for the soaring CPI in the United States in 2021 is not only as simple as the base effect.</p><p>In April, the sub-item performance of US CPI showed three characteristics:</p><p><b>First, the price increase of used cars is the main pull.</b>The used car and truck index rose by 10% month-on-month, which was the largest monthly increase since the CPI index was generated in 1953. The previous value was only 0.5%. This sub-item pulled the total CPI index in April by more than 1/3. The price of used cars has significantly boosted the commodity sub-item and even the core CPI.</p><p><b>Why are the prices of used cars in the United States skyrocketing? Most of them are the \"temporary\" contradiction between supply and demand after the epidemic:</b></p><p>1) The rental car company has insufficient supply of used cars. New cars from American rental cars are generally sold as used cars after a year (or less). While the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 forced car rental companies to slash new car purchases, resulting in a sharp drop in the number of used cars currently entering the market.</p><p>2) The recent chip shortage indirectly affects the supply of used cars. Chip shortages have slowed the pace of new car manufacturing, and then the pace of used car turnover has slowed down, and the number of used cars put on the market is even more limited.</p><p>3) Social distancing increases used car demand. After the epidemic, a large number of residents reduced public transportation trips, telework, and moved to suburbs, and the demand for used cars increased.</p><p>4) Economic risks and consumption downgrade increase the demand for used cars. To save money during unstable economic times, especially with historically high prices for new cars and trucks, U.S. residents tend to opt for used vehicles.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/434743dea03c373e95b3ca9b6572d174\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, energy prices fell instead of rising from the previous month.</b>In April, the energy sub-item decreased slightly by 0.1% month-on-month, and energy products (-1.4%), gasoline (-1.4%) and crude oil (-3.2%) all decreased month-on-month, which deviates from the recent intuitive rise in commodity prices. However, all energy products sub-items still rose sharply by 25.1% year-on-year, and the weight of this sub-item in CPI was 6.9%, contributing 1.73 percentage points to the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in April.</p><p><b>Third, transportation services led the increase in service sub-items.</b>In April, the transportation service sub-items increased by 2.9% month-on-month, significantly ahead of the ahead value by 1.8%; A year-on-year increase of 5.6%, significantly exceeding the year-on-year increase of 2.5% for all service segments. Among them, aviation expenses and motor vehicle insurance rose by 10.2% and 2.5% respectively. The transportation sub-item has an important pull on all service sub-items and even the core CPI.</p><p>On the whole, the April CPI data reflects that,<b>The restart of the U.S. economy saw a \"temporary\" surge in demand, reflected in a faster rise in demand for food, beverage and transportation.</b>With the epidemic control and the recovery of offline consumption and travel scenarios in the United States, it is understandable that the associated demand growth drives the short-term price rise.</p><p><b>2. Research and judgment of US CPI trend: base effect and \"temporary\" factors</b></p><p>We expect that the month-on-month growth rate of CPI in the United States is expected to slow down in May 2021, CPI may decline significantly year-on-year in the second half of the year, and CPI is expected to return to \"normal\" in 2022.</p><p>First, for used cars and trucks, the above-mentioned contradiction between supply and demand may lead to high prices in 2021,<b>But it is difficult to rise quickly again in May month-on-month.</b>Moreover, the contradiction between supply and demand is mostly \"temporary\", which is expected to be basically eliminated in 2022, helping the growth rate of US CPI and core CPI to drop in 2022.</p><p>Second, although the energy sub-item declined month-on-month in April, combined with the bulk rise after mid-April, the energy sub-item may rise month-on-month in May. However, we are cautious about the medium and long-term trend of energy prices (especially crude oil), mainly because the elasticity of international crude oil supply is still strong at this stage, and the growth rate of energy sub-items in 2022 is likely to return to at least the historical average level.</p><p>Third, the sub-price of services is likely to rise further due to the continued improvement of the epidemic situation and the recovery of consumption scenarios in the United States. However, the question that needs to be considered at present is, what is the relationship between the recovery of service consumption and commodity consumption in the United States, and are they more \"complementary products\" or \"substitutes\"?</p><p>We believe that with the recovery of service consumption, the strong consumption of durable goods in the United States may fall from the previous month, and the consumption of non-durable goods may flatten under the hedging effect of complementarity and substitution.</p><p>On the whole, the US CPI may still be positive month-on-month in May, but the high probability is less than the growth rate in April. This means that the year-over-year CPI reading in May is likely to be a little higher than in April due to the base. However, after getting rid of the base effect in 2022, the year-on-year growth rate of U.S. CPI is expected to return to around 2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/562a892c44ea2161d2b38056da660770\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"832\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, the correlation between CPI and PCE in the United States and the judgment of PCE trend</b></p><p><b>1. Correlation between CPI and PCE in the United States: systematic differences</b></p><p>The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE) is the inflation gauge that the Fed is more concerned about. Its relationship to CPI is:</p><p>1) In terms of statistical sources, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is responsible for counting CPI, according to the questionnaire of consumers; The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is responsible for counting and measuring PCEs based on the CPI values collected by the BLS and other information it collects.</p><p>2) Functionally,<b>Both are measures of prices.</b>CPI may receive more attention, its statistical history is longer, and it is more widely used in the United States, such as the adjustment of social security expenditure and the adjustment of interest rates of many financial products (such as TIPS inflation-protected Treasury Bond). And PCE is the reference basis of the Fed's inflation target.</p><p>3) Looking at the trend of indicators,<b>Historically, the trend of PCE and CPI has a high synchronization, but the volatility of PCE is usually less than that of CPI, and the monthly year-on-year growth rate of PCE is systematically lower than that of CPI.</b>We calculate that from January 2000 to March 2021, the correlation coefficient between PCE and CPI (month-on-month growth rate, the same below) in the United States is 0.983, and the correlation coefficient between core PCE and core CPI is 0.966; The monthly volatility of PCE was 0.93% year-over-year and the volatility of CPI was 1.23%; The month-over-month PCE average is 1.81% and the CPI average is 2.12%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11f02447cc98b24312c9cd9fe75b47ba\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to the official data of the Federal Reserve, there are four reasons for the difference between PCE and CPI values:</p><p><b>1) formula effect,</b>The calculation of PCE is based on the chain Fisher formula, while the CPI is based on the modified Laspeyres formula. The key difference is that PCE takes into account the substitution effect between commodities after price changes more than CPI. For example, when the price of a commodity rises and residents' purchases decrease, the PCE calculation will use a new \"basket\" to reflect the changes in people's consumption behavior.</p><p><b>2) weighting effect,</b>That is, the same goods in two \"baskets\" are assigned different weights. The weight of CPI uses the weight in the survey of residents' purchases, while PCE uses the weight in the survey of products sold by enterprises. For example, the weight of housing in the U.S. PCE is significantly smaller than that of CPI, and the seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter annual rate of PCE in 2021Q1 was 0.31 percentage points lower than that of CPI due to different housing weights.</p><p>According to the data since 2019, the \"weight effect\" is the main factor that makes the trend of PCE and CPI different, which makes the fluctuation of PCE less than that of CPI, that is, the weight effect will inhibit PCE from going too high to a certain extent when CPI rises.</p><p><b>3) range effect,</b>That is, the two \"baskets\" cover different goods. The CPI only covers out-of-pocket expenditures for residents to purchase goods and services, while the PCE also covers expenditures for nonprofit agencies serving families. For example, insurance provided by an employer, government health insurance, etc., are only included in the PCE.</p><p><b>4) other effects,</b>Including seasonally adjusted differences, price differences and residual differences, etc. The seasonal adjustment methods of PCE and CPI are different.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/183c32625966a0b7ca483a37388c65f0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"673\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>2. Research and judgment of PCE trend in the United States: forecast based on CPI data</b></p><p>The US CPI data since 2000 has strong prediction ability for PCE. We attempted to use two sets of US CPI monthly year-on-year data to fit the OLS model to the US PCE monthly year-on-year (Fit 1 uses the data from January 1960 to March 2021, and Fit 2 uses the data from January 2000 to March 2021), and focused on the fitting situation of the period of CPI higher since 1990 (more than 2% month-on-month year).</p><p>We found that the PCE fitting values based on CPI data since 2000 are more compatible with the actual values. Especially in the period when the year-on-year growth rate of CPI is soaring, it can usually be observed that the actual growth rate of CPI> PCE fitting 1> PCE fitting 2> = actual growth rate of PCE (Chart 7). Based on April U.S. CPI month-over-month (4.2%), the April PCE fit for the two models is 3.7% and 3.3%, respectively.</p><p>Considering the base effect and the correlation between CPI and PCE, we predict that the year-on-year PCE value in April 2021 will be in the range of 3.0-3.3%, the year-on-year PCE value in May will be in the range of 3.0-3.5% (or a full-year high), and the year-on-year PCE value in 2021 will be in the range of 2.4-2.6% (slightly higher than the median Fed forecast of 2.4% in March). The year-on-year PCE growth rate in the first quarter of 2022 is expected to fall back to around 2% or below.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d593ef0e3bd5ca806708e8683a5c5e8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"578\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84a5323627607cfa343eba4f82e43254\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"878\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Third, Thinking on the Inflation Trend of the United States and the Federal Reserve Policy</b></p><p>After the U.S. CPI was released in April, Fed officials \"didn't hesitate\" to bear on inflation risks.<u>Bloomberg posted a note that</u><u><b>Six factors may support the Fed's judgment: inflation expectations, sluggish employment, price stickiness, disruptive technology, pricing power and the base effect</b></u><b>。</b>On this basis, we add additional<b>Four Important Dimensions of Thinking</b>：</p><p><b>First, the judgment of this round of commodity cycle.</b>We are more cautious about this commodity cycle (refer to the report \"Is the\" super cycle \"of commodities coming?\").</p><p>The key reason is that the driving force of this round of commodity price increase is more on the supply side than on the demand side. In this round of commodity cycle, the only thing that is expected to become the \"super engine\" of the global demand side may be the total demand driven by the transformation of \"green economy\" in China, the United States and even the world. However, there is still great uncertainty about whether the release rhythm of this process can be faster than the self-regulation of the supply side.</p><p><b>Second, the stabilizing effect of international trade on prices.</b>Beginning in the second half of 2020, the economic recovery in Europe and the United States has boosted exports from global emerging markets, especially Asia. In the first quarter of 2021, the U.S. trade deficit widened to a record, Asian exports remained strong, and European manufacturing quietly gained momentum.</p><p><b>The US under Biden is expected to be more open to international trade, and commodity price pressures could also serve as a catalyst for countries to repair trade relations,</b>For example, on May 17th, the metal tariff war between the EU and the United States was announced to be suspended. In this way, in the future, the United States is expected to continue to control its own consumption and production costs through international division of labor, and curb inflation to a certain extent.</p><p><b>Third, the sustainability of the fiscal stimulus effect of the United States.</b>On the one hand, Biden's $1.9 trillion bailout bill introduced in January was a \"one-off.\" Recently, with the unsatisfactory recovery of the job market, many states in the United States have begun to reduce or suspend the payment of unemployment benefits. On the other hand, the Republican Party's attitude towards Biden's infrastructure plan has been further clarified recently. For example, the media expects that the scale of the revised infrastructure plan to be announced by the Republican Party on May 18th will be only $568 billion, which is only a quarter of Biden's 2.3 trillion proposal.</p><p>What's more, the phenomenon of \"slow employment + fast inflation\" shown by the just-released US economic data in April may further trigger public controversy about the effect and side effects of fiscal stimulus. If the scale of infrastructure projects shrinks significantly in the future, whether it is its uplifting effect on the inflation center of the United States or its blow to public inflation expectations, it may further curb the rise of inflation.</p><p><b>Fourth, the Fed's policy strategy.</b>For the future inflation trend, except for the \"base effect\", which is an \"objective problem\" that can be solved through careful calculation, the rest are mostly \"subjective problems\". We believe that if you break it down (in order of the Fed from \"calm\" to \"flustered\"), there are at least five types of scenarios that may make the Fed (at least externally) ignore inflation:</p><p><b>First, the Federal Reserve currently has a clear judgment that the inflationary pressure in the United States will be temporary and controllable.</b></p><p><b>Second (more likely), the Fed is unsure whether inflation is temporary, but it is worrying that it is difficult to determine the inflation risk based on the higher CPI in April.</b>In the midst of \"uncertainty\", the most sensible choice is to \"stand still\" for further observation and analysis.</p><p><b>Third (more likely), the Federal Reserve may have judged that the inflation risk is high, but the foundation for employment and the recovery of the real economy is not yet solid, and believes that maintaining employment is more important than preventing inflation.</b>Therefore, I have no choice but to \"stand still\".</p><p><b>Fourth, the Federal Reserve may have judged that the inflation risk is high, but believes that it is not caused by monetary policy, but the \"pot\" of excessive fiscal stimulus by the Biden administration.</b>Then try to maintain the rhythm of \"no sharp turns\", in order to demonstrate the rationality of monetary policy.</p><p><b>Fifth, the Fed may have judged that the inflation risk is high, but considering that monetary policy needs to \"not turn sharply\" to avoid causing market shocks under \"austerity panic\",</b>So I have to appease the market a little \"against my will\", but I may have secretly started (or will soon) discussing QE reduction.</p><p><b>But in any case, two things can be more certain: First, there is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will not \"make a sharp turn\". Second, we should be alert to the risk of market volatility.</b></p><p>In the short term, if the Federal Reserve remains dovish, the market risk appetite may not necessarily drop significantly, and risk assets may still perform positively, interpreting \"there is wine today and we are drunk today\". However, when the Fed and the market are faced with too many \"subjective questions\", the suspicion of the market is likely to heat up, which at least means that it will be very difficult for the Fed to communicate with the market in the future.</p><p>Further, the market may easily adjust its expectation of the Fed's policy rhythm to be more \"conservative\", that is, it predicts that the Fed's policy will shift ahead of schedule. Therefore, the risk of the market experiencing volatility and correction in the next 1-2 months may increase.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lszLZJIUe5-eNO1cIbjGsA\">钟正生经济分析</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lszLZJIUe5-eNO1cIbjGsA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199499763","content_text":"摘要\n美国4月通胀指标上行趋势超过市场预期，亦超过基数效应。在近期大宗商品价格重启涨势的背景下，市场对于美国通胀的担忧进一步加剧，对于美联储“误判”通胀的担忧亦有显现。\n抛开“热通胀”的直观感受，由美国通胀指标出发，我们对未来一年CPI和PCE走势进行研判，继而进一步思考，美联储面对通胀指标的蹿升会做何选择。\n1、美国4月CPI指标缘何蹿升？从4月CPI分项数据看，美国经济重启时出现了“暂时性”的需求激增，如食品饮料和交通出行的需求更快上升。其中，二手车和卡车指数环比升10%，为指数生成以来的最大月度涨幅，这一分项对CPI总指数的拉动超过1/3。而二手车价格急涨的原因多为“暂时性”的：\n\n 1）租车公司的二手车供应不足。美国租车公司的新车一般会在一年后（或更短时间内）作为二手车被卖出，而2020年疫情迫使租车公司大幅削减了新车的购买，导致目前进入市场的二手车数量锐减。2）近期芯片短缺间接影响二手车供应。3）社交距离增加二手车需求。4）经济风险、消费降级增加二手车需求。\n\n2、美国CPI走势研判。定性判断：5月二手车价格涨幅或趋缓，能源品和服务价格有望进一步上涨，5月CPI环比可能还会为正，但增速大概率小于4月。定量测算，预计5月美国CPI同比为4.4%左右，2021全年CPI同比增速为3.2%。\n但在2022年摆脱基数效应后，美国CPI同比增速有望回归2%附近，预计2022年一季度CPI同比为2.4%。\n3、美国CPI与PCE的相关性。PCE是美联储更为关注的通胀指标。美国PCE与CPI走势有较高同步性，但PCE的波动性通常小于CPI，且通常PCE月同比增速更低。背后原因：\n\n 1）公式效应。PCE的测算方法比CPI多考虑了价格变化后商品之间的替代效应。2）权重效应。例如，住房在PCE中的权重要显著小于CPI。据2019年以来的数据，“权重效应”是PCE与CPI走势有别的主要因素，它使PCE波动小于CPI，即权重效应在CPI走高时一定程度上将抑制PCE走得过高。3）范围效应。例如，由雇主提供的保险、政府医疗保险等，仅包含在PCE中。4）其他效应。PCE和CPI的季节性调整方法有别。\n\n4、美国PCE走势研判。\n历史上当CPI冲高时，2000年以来的CPI数据对PCE有较强的预测能力。综合考虑基数效应以及CPI与PCE的相关性，我们预测，2021年4月PCE同比值在3.0-3.3%区间，5月PCE同比在3.0-3.5%区间，2021年PCE同比值为2.4-2.6%区间，2022年一季度PCE同比有望回落至2%附近或以下。\n5、对美国通胀走势与美联储政策的思考。\n有很多因素支撑美联储判断通胀只是“暂时的”，我们补充四个重要的思考维度。一是，对于本轮大宗商品周期的判断。二是，国际贸易对物价的平抑作用。三是，美国财政刺激效果的持续性。四是，美联储的施政策略。\n（按照美联储由“淡定”到“慌张”排序）至少有五类情形均可能使美联储（至少对外表现出）漠视通胀：\n\n 1）美联储明确认为通胀压力将是暂时的。2）（较大可能）美联储不确定通胀是否是暂时的，选择“按兵不动”，待作进一步观察和分析。3）（较大可能）美联储判断通胀风险较大，但认为保就业比防通胀更重要，无奈选择“按兵不动”。4）美联储判断通胀风险较大，但不想背财政刺激过度的“锅”。5）美联储判断通胀风险较大，但稍显“违心”地安抚市场，暗地里可能已经（或很快将）开始讨论缩减QE。\n\n如果美联储维持鸽派，那么短期风险资产可能仍会表现积极，演绎“今朝有酒今朝醉”。但市场的猜疑很可能升温，未来美联储与市场沟通的难度很大，市场或容易将对美联储政策预期调整得更加“保守”（即预判美联储政策转向提前）。因此，未来1-2个月市场经历波动和调整的风险可能加大。\n2021年5月12-13日，美国CPI和PPI数据相继出炉，涨势均超市场预期。5月12日CPI公布后引发市场剧烈波动，美股三大股指均跌2%以上，标普500波动率指数（VIX）创近两个月以来新高，10年美债收益率跃升5bp至1.69%。\nCPI指标公布后，美联储多位官员紧急发言稳定市场情绪，继续看淡通胀风险。5月13-14日市场恐慌情绪似乎很快消退，股市反弹，10年美债收益率回落至1.63%。\n诚然，当前美国通胀指标上行超过市场预期、亦超过基数效应。而且，在近期大宗商品重启涨势的背景下，市场对于美国通胀的担忧进一步加剧，对于美联储“误判”通胀的担忧亦有显现。但这是否意味着，美国通胀水平将持续走高、美联储是否会迫于无奈而“出手”？\n我们尝试尽量抛开“热通胀”的直观感受，进行一系列“冷思考”：由美国通胀指标出发（因PPI的关注度与信息量有限，我们主要对CPI和PCE进行讨论），美国4月CPI具体缘何升高、能否持续？美国CPI与美联储更为关注的通胀指标PCE（个人消费支出指数）的相关性如何？美联储将如何应对通胀指标的升高？\n\n一、美国4月CPI解读及CPI走势研判\n1、美国4月CPI指标缘何蹿升：二手车涨价背后的故事\n美国4月CPI 同比4.2%，为2008年9月以来最高增速；环比0.8%，市场预期为0.2%。4月核心CPI同比3.0%；环比0.9%，市场预期为0.3%。整体看，4月美国CPI以及核心CPI增速都大幅超过市场预期。\n2021年1-4月，美国CPI环比增速分别为0.3%、0.4%、0.6%和0.8%，平均为0.5%，而2015-2019年、2016-2019年CPI月均环比分别仅为0.15%、0.18%。可见，2021年美国CPI蹿升的原因不只基数效应那么简单。\n4月美国CPI分项表现呈现三大特点：\n一是，二手车涨价为主要拉动。二手车和卡车指数环比升10%，这是1953年CPI指数生成以来的最大月度涨幅，前值仅0.5%，这一分项对4月CPI总指数的拉动超过1/3。二手车价格对商品分项乃至核心CPI形成显著拉动。\n美国二手车价格为何急涨？多为疫情后“暂时性”的供需矛盾：\n1）租车公司的二手车供应不足。美国租车公司的新车一般会在一年后（或更短时间内）作为二手车被卖出。而2020年新冠疫情迫使租车公司大幅削减新车购买，导致目前进入市场的二手车数量锐减。\n2）近期芯片短缺间接影响二手车供应。芯片短缺使新车制造速度放缓，继而二手车更迭速度也放缓，投放到市场的二手车更加有限。\n3）社交距离增加二手车需求。疫情后大量居民减少公共交通出行、远程办工、迁居郊区等，对二手车的需求上升。\n4）经济风险、消费降级增加二手车需求。为了在经济形势不稳定的时期省钱，尤其是在新车和卡车价格处于历史高位的情况下，美国居民倾向于选择二手车。\n\n二是，能源价格环比不升反降。4月能源分项反而环比小幅下降0.1%，能源品（-1.4%）、汽油（-1.4%）和原油（-3.2%）均环比下降，这与我们近期直观上感受到的大宗商品价格上涨现象背离。不过，所有能源品分项同比仍然大幅上涨25.1%，该分项在CPI中的权重为6.9%，对4月CPI同比增速的贡献是1.73个百分点。\n三是，交通服务领涨服务分项。4月交通服务分项环比升2.9%，显著超前值的1.8%；同比升5.6%，显著超过全部服务分项同比的2.5%。其中，航空费用和机动车保险两分项环比分别涨10.2%和2.5%。交通服务分项对全部服务分项、乃至核心CPI有重要拉动。\n综合来看，4月CPI数据体现的是，美国经济重启时出现了“暂时性”的需求激增，体现为食品饮料和交通出行的需求更快上升。随着美国疫情控制、线下消费与出行场景恢复，与之相关的需求增长带动物价短线上升是可以理解的。\n2、美国CPI走势研判：基数效应与“暂时性”因素\n我们预计，2021年5月美国CPI环比增速有望放缓，下半年CPI同比可能明显下降，2022年CPI有望回归“正常”。\n第一，二手车和卡车方面，上述供需矛盾可能导致2021年价格维持高位，但5月环比很难再次快速上升。且供需矛盾多为“暂时性”的，有望在2022年基本消除，帮助美国CPI以及核心CPI增速在2022年回落。\n第二，虽然4月能源分项环比下滑，但结合4月中旬以后的大宗涨势，5月能源分项可能环比回升。但我们对能源价格（尤其原油）的中长期走势偏于谨慎，主因是现阶段国际原油供给弹性仍然较强，能源分项在2022年的增速大概率至少回归历史平均水平。\n第三，服务分项价格可能会进一步抬头，原因是美国疫情持续改善和消费场景恢复。但目前需要思考的问题是，美国服务消费的恢复与商品消费的关系是怎样的、二者更多是“互补品”还是“替代品”？\n我们认为，随着服务消费的恢复，美国强劲的耐用品消费有可能环比回落，非耐用品消费在互补与替代的对冲作用下可能走平。\n综合来看，5月美国CPI环比可能还会为正，但大概率小于4月增速。这意味着，由于基数原因，5月CPI同比读数可能会比4月再高一些。但在2022年摆脱基数效应后，美国CPI同比增速有望回归2%附近。\n\n二、美国CPI与PCE相关性及PCE走势研判\n1、美国CPI与PCE的相关性：系统性的差异\n美国个人消费支出指数（PCE）是美联储更为关注的通胀指标。其与CPI的关系是：\n1）统计来源看，美国劳工统计局（BLS）负责统计CPI，依据对消费者的调查问卷；美国经济分析局（BEA）负责统计和测算PCE，依据的是BLS统计的CPI数值以及其收集的其他信息。\n2）功能上看，二者都是衡量物价的指标。CPI可能受到更多关注，其统计历史更长久，在美国CPI的用途更广泛，如用于社保支出调整、用于很多金融产品利率的调整（如TIPS通胀保值国债）等。而PCE是美联储通胀目标的参考依据。\n3）指标走势上看，历史上PCE与CPI走势有较高同步性，但PCE的波动性通常小于CPI，且PCE月同比增速系统性低于CPI。我们测算，2000年1月至2021年3月期间，美国PCE与CPI（月同比增速,下同）相关系数为0.983，核心PCE与核心CPI的相关系数为0.966；PCE月同比波动率为0.93%，CPI波动率为1.23%；PCE月同比平均值为1.81%，CPI平均值为2.12%。\n\n据美联储官方资料，PCE与CPI数值产生差异有四个原因：\n1）公式效应，PCE的测算是基于链式Fisher公式，而CPI是基于修正的Laspeyres公式。其关键区别在于，PCE比CPI多考虑了价格变化后商品之间的替代效应。例如，一项商品价格上涨，居民购买量减少，PCE的测算便会用新的“篮子”，以反映人们消费行为的变化。\n2）权重效应，即两个“篮子”中相同商品被赋予不同权重。CPI的权重使用的是居民购买情况调查里的权重，而PCE用的是企业销售产品情况调查的权重。例如，住房在美国PCE中的权重要显著小于CPI，2021Q1因住房权重不同PCE季调环比折年率比CPI低0.31个百分点。\n据2019年以来的数据，“权重效应”是PCE与CPI走势有别的主要因素，它使PCE波动小于CPI，即权重效应在CPI走高时一定程度上将抑制PCE走得过高。\n3）范围效应，即两个“篮子”涵盖不同的商品。CPI仅涵盖居民购买商品和服务的自付支出，而PCE还涵盖了为家庭服务的非营利机构的支出。例如，由雇主提供的保险、政府医疗保险等，仅包含在PCE中。\n4）其他效应，包括季节调整差异、价格差异和剩余差异等。PCE和CPI的季节性调整方法有别。\n2、美国PCE走势研判：基于CPI数据的预测\n2000年以来的美国CPI数据对PCE有较强的预测能力。我们尝试用两组美国CPI月同比数据，对美国PCE月同比进行OLS模型拟合（拟合1使用1960年1月至2021年3月数据、拟合2使用2000年1月至2021年3月），并重点观察1990年以来CPI走高时期（月同比2%以上）的拟合情况。\n我们发现，以2000年以来CPI数据进行的PCE拟合值与实际值更为贴合。尤其在CPI同比增速冲高的时期，通常可以观察到，CPI实际增速>PCE拟合1>PCE拟合2>=PCE实际增速（图表7）。根据4月美国CPI月同比（4.2%），两个模型的4月PCE拟合值分别为3.7%和3.3%。\n综合考虑基数效应以及CPI与PCE的相关性，我们预测，2021年4月PCE同比值在3.0-3.3%区间，5月PCE同比在3.0-3.5%区间（或为全年高点），2021年PCE同比值为2.4-2.6%区间（略高于3月美联储预测中值的2.4%），2022年一季度PCE同比增速有望回落至2%附近或以下。\n\n\n三、对美国通胀走势与美联储政策的思考\n4月美国CPI公布后，美联储官员“毫不犹豫”地看淡通胀风险。彭博发文指出或有六大因素支撑美联储的判断：通胀预期、就业不振、价格粘性、颠覆性技术、定价能力以及基数效应。在此基础上，我们补充另外四个重要的思考维度：\n一是，对于本轮大宗商品周期的判断。我们对本轮大宗商品周期持较为谨慎的态度（参考报告《大宗商品的“超级周期”来了吗？》）。\n关键原因是，本轮商品价格上涨的驱动力更多在供给侧而非需求端。本轮商品周期中，唯一有望成为全球需求端“超级发动机”的，可能是中国、美国乃至全球“绿色经济”转型对总需求的拉动。但这一过程释放的节奏能否快过供给端的自我调节，还有很大不确定性。\n二是，国际贸易对物价的平抑作用。2020年下半年开始，欧美经济复苏拉动了全球新兴市场（尤其亚洲）的出口。2021年一季度美国贸易逆差扩大创历史记录，亚洲出口维持强劲，欧洲制造业亦悄然发力。\n拜登领导下的美国对国际贸易的态度料将更加开放，大宗商品价格压力亦可能成为各国修复贸易关系的催化剂，如5月17日欧盟与美国的金属关税战宣布暂缓。如此看，未来美国有望通过国际分工继续控制本国消费与生产成本，一定程度上抑制通胀水平。\n三是，美国财政刺激效果的持续性。一方面，拜登今年1月推出的1.9万亿美元救助法案是“一次性”的。近期随着就业市场恢复不尽人意，美国多个州已经开始减少或暂停失业救助的发放。另一方面，近期共和党对拜登基建计划的态度进一步清晰，如媒体预计5月18日共和党将公布的基建计划修订方案的规模仅为5680亿美元，仅为拜登2.3万亿提案的四分之一。\n更何况，刚出炉的4月美国经济数据所展现的“慢就业+快通胀”现象，有可能进一步引发公众对财政刺激效果与副作用的争议。如果未来基建计划的规模大幅缩水，无论是其对美国通胀中枢的抬升作用，还是对公众通胀预期的打击，都可能进一步抑制通胀升高。\n四是，美联储的施政策略。对于未来通胀走势，除了“基数效应”是一个可以通过仔细测算而解决的“客观题”，其余大多是“主观题”。我们认为，如果进行细分（按照美联储由“淡定”到“慌张”排序），那么至少有五类情形均可能使美联储（至少对外表现出）漠视通胀：\n第一，美联储目前有较为明确的判断，认为美国通胀压力将是暂时的、可控的。\n第二（较大可能），美联储不确定通胀是否是暂时的，但难以根据4月CPI走高就认定通胀风险是令人担忧的。在“不确定”中最为理智的选择是“按兵不动”，作进一步观察和分析。\n第三（较大可能），美联储可能已经判断通胀风险较大，但就业与实体经济恢复基础尚不牢固，并认为保就业比防通胀更重要，因此无奈选择“按兵不动”。\n第四，美联储可能已经判断通胀风险较大，但认为这并非是货币政策造成的，而是拜登政府财政刺激过度的“锅”，继而尽量维持“不急转弯”的节奏，以期彰显货币政策的合理性。\n第五，美联储可能已经判断通胀风险较大，但考虑到货币政策需要“不急转弯”，以避免造成“紧缩恐慌”下的市场震荡，所以不得不稍显“违心”地安抚市场，但暗地里可能已经（或很快将）开始讨论缩减QE。\n但无论何种情况，可以较为确定的是两件事：第一，美联储大概率不会“急转弯”。第二，需警惕市场波动风险。\n短期看，如果美联储维持鸽派，市场风险偏好不一定会显著回落，风险资产可能仍会表现积极，演绎“今朝有酒今朝醉”。但当美联储和市场面对太多的“主观题”时，市场的猜疑亦很可能升温，这至少意味着未来美联储与市场沟通的难度很大。\n进一步看，市场或容易将对美联储政策节奏的预期调整得更加“保守”，即预判美联储政策转向提前。因此，未来1-2个月市场经历波动和调整的风险可能加大。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3105,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}