I’d watch A: HBM demand and AI data-center spending most closely. Micron’s Q4 results—$54.23B revenue, 87% non-GAAP gross margin, and Q1 guidance of about $61.5B—show that demand remains exceptionally strong. Management also expects HBM demand to grow faster than conventional DRAM through 2028, with much of next year’s HBM supply already committed. Inventory is important, but the recent increase appears partly related to end-of-life inventory build-ahead and higher manufacturing costs, with management expecting inventory days to decline. Market share will affect margins and valuation, but sustained AI infrastructure spending is the bigger driver of the entire memory upcycle. If hyperscaler capex or GPU deployments slow, even strong HBM share gains may not prevent a cyclical correction.
I haven’t fully reached my 2026 investing goals yet, but I’m making steady progress. This year has taught me that consistency, diversification, and risk management are more important than chasing every market opportunity. My goal for the final three months is to review my portfolio, take profits carefully where appropriate, and continue investing according to my long-term plan. The biggest lesson: protecting capital and staying disciplined are just as important as seeking returns.