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- XiaoHui_0906XiaoHui_0906
  ·2021-07-20
  Lublin?
  "One Brother" Zhang Kun Rare Reflection: It is more difficult to make money in the next five years
  7月20日凌晨，易方达、广发等基金陆续披露旗下基金二季报，张坤、萧楠、刘格菘等明星基金经理的最新持仓变动也随之曝光。他们的投资组合做了哪些调整？如何看待过去一段时间互联网、教育股的回调和猪价的下跌？
  "One Brother" Zhang Kun Rare Reflection: It is more difficult to make money in the next five years
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- XiaoHui_0906XiaoHui_0906
  ·2021-07-20
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What do you think of the pullback of Internet and education stocks and the decline in pig prices in the past period?</p><p><b>01</b></p><p><b>Zhang Kun's rare \"reflection\"</b></p><p><b>Declining returns in coming years are hard to avoid</b></p><p>When the market pulled back at the beginning of the year, someone created an \"escape\" meme. The second quarterly report shows that neither Zhang Kun nor his people \"ran\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/635934407b37961d39c73cbe12e0623d\" tg-width=\"119\" tg-height=\"76\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>By the end of the second quarter, Zhang Kun's management scale reached 134.478 billion yuan, a slight increase from 133.109 billion yuan at the end of the previous quarter.</p><p><b>Reflecting on his past investment process, he \"found many mistakes\" and lamented the difficulty of future investment.</b></p><p>He pointed out that after the pandemic, with the relaxation of global liquidity, global stock markets have risen significantly. For some companies, if all the assumptions are fulfilled, they may earn a discount rate or a slightly higher level of return over the next five years, but<b>If you make a mistake, you may face a 30% or even 50% share price drop.</b></p><p><b>In the next few years, the degree of competition faced by many industries will probably be more intense than that in the past five years, and the difficulty of judging the industry competition pattern in the next five years will probably only increase.</b>If you are right, you may only get a mediocre rate of return, but once you are wrong, you will face a lot of losses.</p><p>\"I often look at the portfolio like this, if the stock market pauses and trading resumes after five years, how much of the expected compound returns each business can bring,<b>From the current judgment, a decline in expected returns over the next few years may be difficult to avoid.</b>\"Zhang Kun said in the quarterly report.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50b85481b6cde0aa5f5a91da45033c97\" tg-width=\"669\" tg-height=\"767\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>02</b></p><p><b>Zhang Kun reduces holdings<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000858\">Wuliangye</a>Maotai<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>Masukura<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>Postal Savings</b></p><p>Compared with the first quarterly report of 2021, the stock positions of Zhang Kun's four products all declined to varying degrees in the second quarter.</p><p>Among them,<b>E Fund's Small and Medium-Cap Stock Positions Declined the Most</b>The proportion of its stock market value to the fund's net asset value dropped sharply from 94.58% at the end of the first quarter to about 71.07%, a decrease of about 24 percentage points.</p><p><b>This is also the lowest stock position at the end of the quarter during the E Fund Small and Medium Cap Fund managed by Zhang Kun, second only to 72.19% in the 2017 interim report.</b></p><p>The position of E Fund's blue-chip stocks has decreased by about 2 percentage points, and the position of E Fund Asia Select and E Fund High-quality Enterprises has decreased by about 4-5 percentage points. The stock positions of these three funds are all around 90%.</p><p>In the second quarter, the correction of some heavyweight stocks obviously touched Zhang Kun. Generally speaking, Zhang Kun is hesitant about the computer and consumer goods industries with heavy warehouses, and optimistic about banking, real estate, electronics, medicine and other industries.</p><p>From the perspective of specific positions,<b>E Fund Asia's selected heavy warehouse portfolio also shows that TAL,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>, STAAR Surgical Co exits top ten heavyweight stocks</b>Postal Savings Bank of China,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00688\">CHINA OVERSEAS LIMITED</a>Ltd.,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">Vipshop</a>New in the top ten heavyweight stocks.</p><p>In this regard, Zhang Kun specifically mentioned in E Fund Asia Selection,<b>In the second quarter, the stock prices of education and training enterprises fell greatly due to policy expectations, which had a certain negative impact on the net value of the fund, which also made him reflect on some assumptions in the long-term investment framework, hoping to further improve them.</b></p><p>E Fund's Small and Medium-Cap Top Ten Awkwardness Stocks Remain Unchanged, Focusing on Overholding<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600570\">Hang Seng Electronics</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002007\">Hualan Biotech</a>Focus on reducing holdings with huge increase in the previous period<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600763\">Tongce Medical</a>, Maotai, Wuliangye.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/072a6f03ba48e67f484c88af03c90da0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Among the top ten Awkwardness stocks of E Fund Blue Chip 2 quarterly report, compared with the first quarterly report,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300015\">Aier ophthalmology</a>For the new top ten heavyweight stocks</b>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001\">Ping An Bank</a>And withdraw from the top ten. However, at the time of the fourth quarterly report of 2020, Aier Ophthalmology was also among the top ten Awkwardness stocks of E Fund's blue chip, and the change between this appearance and the number of shares held at that time was not much.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a39090f4f108246e7c600c4ba28cd96\" tg-width=\"598\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af077204d412ddabad74578a87b1942c\" tg-width=\"604\" tg-height=\"78\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to the information of the top ten heavyweight stocks of E Fund's high-quality enterprises, Aier Ophthalmology and Ping An Bank have newly entered the top ten heavyweight stocks, Hualan Bio,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01951\">Jinxin Reproduction</a>Then withdraw from the top ten heavyweight stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e29a92a03c39520257974a13d307451\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>03</b></p><p><b>Liu Gesong Adds \"Global Comparative Advantage\" Manufacturing Industry</b></p><p>In the quarterly report of Guangfa Small Cap 2, Liu Gesong emphasized that in the second quarter, he focused on investigating listed Chinese manufacturing companies with \"global comparative advantages\", such as photovoltaic industry chain, power batteries, new chemical materials and panels.<b>It is still believed that the profit of such manufacturing assets is expected to maintain a relatively long boom cycle, and the valuation expansion of such manufacturing assets has not deviated from the boom range, and a considerable number of assets have high cost performance.</b></p><p>In the second quarter, the fund further increased the allocation ratio of manufacturing industries with \"global comparative advantage\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51323b149b079c0698e47f8fff7b72be\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"192\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of position changes, the fund increased its holdings by 3.5665 million shares in the second quarter<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601012\">LONGi</a>With a total of 18.0015 million shares, the company's share price recently came out of the \"pit\" that plunged after the year and reached a record high, with an increase of 41.66% in the second quarter. Therefore, the fund holds its market value of 1.599 billion yuan, accounting for 10.86% of the net value, making it its first heavyweight stock.</p><p>In addition,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300347\">Tigermed</a>Exit the top ten heavyweight stocks,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601127\">Xiaokang Shares</a>New in the top ten heavyweight stocks.</b></p><p>Previous announcements will find that GF Small Cap participated in the subscription of non-public offering of Xiaokang shares. This part of stocks with restricted circulation accounts for about 1.68% of the fund's net asset value.</p><p>The second quarterly report shows that Xiaokang shares account for about 4.58% of the net value. That is to say, in the second quarter, in addition to participating in the fixed increase, Liu Gesong also bought Xiaokang shares in the secondary market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7660d1a035fd3f8e3bc6be39aec16dc3\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>The share price of Xiaokang shares was around 15 yuan at the beginning of the year, and it once exceeded 83 yuan in June, an increase of over 450%. Subsequently, the stock price was corrected, closing at 65.75 yuan at noon on July 20th.</p><p><b>04</b></p><p><b>Xiao Nan aggressively increases holdings<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600036\">China Merchants Bank</a></b></p><p>According to the second quarterly report of E Fund Keshun Dingkai, managed by Xiao Nan, the stock position of the fund as of the end of the second quarter was 90.98%, a slight increase from 89.53% at the end of the first quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e35704160d45b51330886e3bd3a3906\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"180\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>During the year, liquor stocks differentiated greatly,<b>Judging from Xiao Nan's position, there are still six liquor stocks among the top ten heavyweight stocks. From the first and second largest weight stocks, Wuliangye, which has a relatively weak performance, has not reduced its holdings, while it rose by more than 19% in the first half of the year<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600809\">Shanxi Fenjiu</a>Instead, the number of shares held has decreased</b>。</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03968\">China Merchants Bank</a>The new entry may be one of the manifestations of the substantial increase in banking sector mentioned by Xiao Nan</b>。 According to the quarterly report, China Merchants Bank accounted for about 6% of the net value, becoming the seventh largest Awkwardness in one fell swoop.</p><p>In addition,<b>He continued to increase investment in the aquaculture sector, but the effect was not satisfactory</b>— — The decline of pig prices exceeded previous expectations, but he is not worried about the long-term space of related targets. On the contrary, every trough in the industry is a bend for high-quality enterprises to expand and competitors to stagnate and regress.</p><p>Last year, some of the low-valuation targets he laid out performed generally. The reasons were not only market style,<b>It is more that the company's own efforts to get out of the existing woes have not yet shown the desired results.</b>Fortunately, there are not many positions in such targets. Too much left-side investment will indeed seriously reduce investment efficiency, so in the second quarter, he made appropriate adjustments to replace such companies with companies with equally cheap valuations but more new growth momentum.</p><p>However, the adjustment of other sectors is not obvious from the top ten heavyweight stocks, and it may be necessary to wait for the semi-annual report to give more detailed information.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"One Brother\" Zhang Kun Rare Reflection: It is more difficult to make money in the next five years</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"One Brother\" Zhang Kun Rare Reflection: It is more difficult to make money in the next five years\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-20 13:18</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In the early morning of July 20th, E Fund, GF and other funds successively disclosed the second quarterly reports of their funds, and the latest position changes of star fund managers such as Zhang Kun, Xiao Nan and Liu Gesong were also exposed.</p><p>What adjustments have they made to their portfolio? What do you think of the pullback of Internet and education stocks and the decline in pig prices in the past period?</p><p><b>01</b></p><p><b>Zhang Kun's rare \"reflection\"</b></p><p><b>Declining returns in coming years are hard to avoid</b></p><p>When the market pulled back at the beginning of the year, someone created an \"escape\" meme. The second quarterly report shows that neither Zhang Kun nor his people \"ran\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/635934407b37961d39c73cbe12e0623d\" tg-width=\"119\" tg-height=\"76\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>By the end of the second quarter, Zhang Kun's management scale reached 134.478 billion yuan, a slight increase from 133.109 billion yuan at the end of the previous quarter.</p><p><b>Reflecting on his past investment process, he \"found many mistakes\" and lamented the difficulty of future investment.</b></p><p>He pointed out that after the pandemic, with the relaxation of global liquidity, global stock markets have risen significantly. For some companies, if all the assumptions are fulfilled, they may earn a discount rate or a slightly higher level of return over the next five years, but<b>If you make a mistake, you may face a 30% or even 50% share price drop.</b></p><p><b>In the next few years, the degree of competition faced by many industries will probably be more intense than that in the past five years, and the difficulty of judging the industry competition pattern in the next five years will probably only increase.</b>If you are right, you may only get a mediocre rate of return, but once you are wrong, you will face a lot of losses.</p><p>\"I often look at the portfolio like this, if the stock market pauses and trading resumes after five years, how much of the expected compound returns each business can bring,<b>From the current judgment, a decline in expected returns over the next few years may be difficult to avoid.</b>\"Zhang Kun said in the quarterly report.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50b85481b6cde0aa5f5a91da45033c97\" tg-width=\"669\" tg-height=\"767\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>02</b></p><p><b>Zhang Kun reduces holdings<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000858\">Wuliangye</a>Maotai<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>Masukura<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>Postal Savings</b></p><p>Compared with the first quarterly report of 2021, the stock positions of Zhang Kun's four products all declined to varying degrees in the second quarter.</p><p>Among them,<b>E Fund's Small and Medium-Cap Stock Positions Declined the Most</b>The proportion of its stock market value to the fund's net asset value dropped sharply from 94.58% at the end of the first quarter to about 71.07%, a decrease of about 24 percentage points.</p><p><b>This is also the lowest stock position at the end of the quarter during the E Fund Small and Medium Cap Fund managed by Zhang Kun, second only to 72.19% in the 2017 interim report.</b></p><p>The position of E Fund's blue-chip stocks has decreased by about 2 percentage points, and the position of E Fund Asia Select and E Fund High-quality Enterprises has decreased by about 4-5 percentage points. The stock positions of these three funds are all around 90%.</p><p>In the second quarter, the correction of some heavyweight stocks obviously touched Zhang Kun. Generally speaking, Zhang Kun is hesitant about the computer and consumer goods industries with heavy warehouses, and optimistic about banking, real estate, electronics, medicine and other industries.</p><p>From the perspective of specific positions,<b>E Fund Asia's selected heavy warehouse portfolio also shows that TAL,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>, STAAR Surgical Co exits top ten heavyweight stocks</b>Postal Savings Bank of China,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00688\">CHINA OVERSEAS LIMITED</a>Ltd.,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">Vipshop</a>New in the top ten heavyweight stocks.</p><p>In this regard, Zhang Kun specifically mentioned in E Fund Asia Selection,<b>In the second quarter, the stock prices of education and training enterprises fell greatly due to policy expectations, which had a certain negative impact on the net value of the fund, which also made him reflect on some assumptions in the long-term investment framework, hoping to further improve them.</b></p><p>E Fund's Small and Medium-Cap Top Ten Awkwardness Stocks Remain Unchanged, Focusing on Overholding<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600570\">Hang Seng Electronics</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002007\">Hualan Biotech</a>Focus on reducing holdings with huge increase in the previous period<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600763\">Tongce Medical</a>, Maotai, Wuliangye.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/072a6f03ba48e67f484c88af03c90da0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Among the top ten Awkwardness stocks of E Fund Blue Chip 2 quarterly report, compared with the first quarterly report,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300015\">Aier ophthalmology</a>For the new top ten heavyweight stocks</b>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001\">Ping An Bank</a>And withdraw from the top ten. However, at the time of the fourth quarterly report of 2020, Aier Ophthalmology was also among the top ten Awkwardness stocks of E Fund's blue chip, and the change between this appearance and the number of shares held at that time was not much.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a39090f4f108246e7c600c4ba28cd96\" tg-width=\"598\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af077204d412ddabad74578a87b1942c\" tg-width=\"604\" tg-height=\"78\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to the information of the top ten heavyweight stocks of E Fund's high-quality enterprises, Aier Ophthalmology and Ping An Bank have newly entered the top ten heavyweight stocks, Hualan Bio,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01951\">Jinxin Reproduction</a>Then withdraw from the top ten heavyweight stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e29a92a03c39520257974a13d307451\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>03</b></p><p><b>Liu Gesong Adds \"Global Comparative Advantage\" Manufacturing Industry</b></p><p>In the quarterly report of Guangfa Small Cap 2, Liu Gesong emphasized that in the second quarter, he focused on investigating listed Chinese manufacturing companies with \"global comparative advantages\", such as photovoltaic industry chain, power batteries, new chemical materials and panels.<b>It is still believed that the profit of such manufacturing assets is expected to maintain a relatively long boom cycle, and the valuation expansion of such manufacturing assets has not deviated from the boom range, and a considerable number of assets have high cost performance.</b></p><p>In the second quarter, the fund further increased the allocation ratio of manufacturing industries with \"global comparative advantage\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51323b149b079c0698e47f8fff7b72be\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"192\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of position changes, the fund increased its holdings by 3.5665 million shares in the second quarter<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601012\">LONGi</a>With a total of 18.0015 million shares, the company's share price recently came out of the \"pit\" that plunged after the year and reached a record high, with an increase of 41.66% in the second quarter. Therefore, the fund holds its market value of 1.599 billion yuan, accounting for 10.86% of the net value, making it its first heavyweight stock.</p><p>In addition,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300347\">Tigermed</a>Exit the top ten heavyweight stocks,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601127\">Xiaokang Shares</a>New in the top ten heavyweight stocks.</b></p><p>Previous announcements will find that GF Small Cap participated in the subscription of non-public offering of Xiaokang shares. This part of stocks with restricted circulation accounts for about 1.68% of the fund's net asset value.</p><p>The second quarterly report shows that Xiaokang shares account for about 4.58% of the net value. That is to say, in the second quarter, in addition to participating in the fixed increase, Liu Gesong also bought Xiaokang shares in the secondary market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7660d1a035fd3f8e3bc6be39aec16dc3\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>The share price of Xiaokang shares was around 15 yuan at the beginning of the year, and it once exceeded 83 yuan in June, an increase of over 450%. Subsequently, the stock price was corrected, closing at 65.75 yuan at noon on July 20th.</p><p><b>04</b></p><p><b>Xiao Nan aggressively increases holdings<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600036\">China Merchants Bank</a></b></p><p>According to the second quarterly report of E Fund Keshun Dingkai, managed by Xiao Nan, the stock position of the fund as of the end of the second quarter was 90.98%, a slight increase from 89.53% at the end of the first quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e35704160d45b51330886e3bd3a3906\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"180\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>During the year, liquor stocks differentiated greatly,<b>Judging from Xiao Nan's position, there are still six liquor stocks among the top ten heavyweight stocks. From the first and second largest weight stocks, Wuliangye, which has a relatively weak performance, has not reduced its holdings, while it rose by more than 19% in the first half of the year<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600809\">Shanxi Fenjiu</a>Instead, the number of shares held has decreased</b>。</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03968\">China Merchants Bank</a>The new entry may be one of the manifestations of the substantial increase in banking sector mentioned by Xiao Nan</b>。 According to the quarterly report, China Merchants Bank accounted for about 6% of the net value, becoming the seventh largest Awkwardness in one fell swoop.</p><p>In addition,<b>He continued to increase investment in the aquaculture sector, but the effect was not satisfactory</b>— — The decline of pig prices exceeded previous expectations, but he is not worried about the long-term space of related targets. On the contrary, every trough in the industry is a bend for high-quality enterprises to expand and competitors to stagnate and regress.</p><p>Last year, some of the low-valuation targets he laid out performed generally. The reasons were not only market style,<b>It is more that the company's own efforts to get out of the existing woes have not yet shown the desired results.</b>Fortunately, there are not many positions in such targets. Too much left-side investment will indeed seriously reduce investment efficiency, so in the second quarter, he made appropriate adjustments to replace such companies with companies with equally cheap valuations but more new growth momentum.</p><p>However, the adjustment of other sectors is not obvious from the top ten heavyweight stocks, and it may be necessary to wait for the semi-annual report to give more detailed information.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100583093","content_text":"7月20日凌晨，易方达、广发等基金陆续披露旗下基金二季报，张坤、萧楠、刘格菘等明星基金经理的最新持仓变动也随之曝光。\n他们的投资组合做了哪些调整？如何看待过去一段时间互联网、教育股的回调和猪价的下跌？\n01\n张坤罕见“反思”\n未来几年回报下降难以避免\n年初市场回调时，有人创造出 “快逃”的表情包。二季报显示，张坤和他的基民都没有“跑”。\n\n截至二季度末，张坤的管理规模达到1344.78亿元，较上季度末的1331.09亿元略有增加。\n在反思自己过往的投资过程，他“发现有不少错误”，同时感慨未来投资之难。\n他指出，疫情后，随着全球流动性的放松，全球股市都有了显著上涨。对于一些公司，在各种假设都兑现的情况下，可能未来 5 年能赚取贴现率或者比贴现率略高的收益率水平，但是一旦错误，可能就要面临30%甚至50%的股价下跌。\n未来几年，不少行业面临的竞争程度恐怕比过去 5 年更为激烈，未来5年行业竞争格局的判断难度恐怕只增不减。如果正确，可能只获得一个平庸的回报率，但一旦错误，却面临不小的损失。\n“我经常这样审视组合，如果股市暂停，5 年后恢复交易，每个企业能带来多少的预期复合收益率，从目前的判断来看，未来几年预期回报率下降可能是难以避免的。”张坤在季报中表示。\n\n02\n张坤减持五粮液茅台好未来，增仓腾讯邮储\n对比2021年一季报，张坤旗下4只产品的股票仓位均在二季度有不同程度的下降。\n其中，易方达中小盘的股票仓位下降幅度最大，其股票市值占基金资产净值比例从一季度末的94.58%大幅降低至71.07%左右，下降了约24个百分点。\n这也是张坤管理的易方达中小盘基金期间，季末股票仓位最低的一次，仅次于2017年中报的72.19%。\n易方达蓝筹股票仓位约降低2个百分点左右，易方达亚洲精选、易方达优质企业仓位约降低4-5个百分点之间。这3只基金股票仓位均在9成上下。\n二季度，部分重仓股回调，显然对张坤颇有触动。总体来看，张坤对于重仓的计算机和消费品行业的看法较为犹豫，对于银行、地产、电子、医药等行业的看法较为乐观。\n从具体的持仓看，易方达亚洲精选的重仓组合也显示，好未来、新东方、STAAR Surgical Co退出前十大重仓股，中国邮政储蓄银行、中国海外发展有限公司、唯品会新入前十大重仓股。\n对此，张坤在易方达亚洲精选中特别提到，二季度，教培企业受政策预期影响股价跌幅较大，对基金净值产生了一定的负面影响，这也使他反思长期投资框架中的一些假设，希望能够将其进一步完善。\n易方达中小盘十大重仓股保持不变，重点增持了恒生电子、华兰生物、重点减持了前期涨幅巨大的通策医疗、茅台、五粮液。\n\n易方达蓝筹2季报前十大重仓股中，对比1季报，爱尔眼科为新入十大重仓股者，平安银行则退出前十大。不过，2020年4季报时，爱尔眼科亦在易方达蓝筹前十大重仓股，此次现身与当时持股数量变化亦不算大。\n\n易方达优质企业前十大重仓股信息显示，爱尔眼科、平安银行新入前十大重仓股，华兰生物、锦欣生殖则退出前十大重仓股。\n\n03\n刘格菘增配“全球比较优势”制造业\n在广发小盘2季报中，刘格菘强调，他二季度集中调研了光伏产业链、动力电池、化工新材料、面板等具备“全球比较优势”特征的中国制造业上市公司，仍然认为这类制造业资产的盈利预计能够保持比较长的景气周期，而且这类制造业资产的估值扩张并没有脱离景气区间，相当一部分资产还具备较高的性价比。\n二季度，该基金进一步提高了具有“全球比较优势”的制造业的配置比例。\n\n持仓变动方面，该基金在第二季度增持了356.65万股隆基股份，合计持有1800.15万股，公司股价近期从年后大跌的“坑”里走了出来并创下历史新高，二季度涨幅达41.66%，因此基金持有其市值达15.99亿元，占净值比例达10.86%，为其第一重仓股。\n此外，泰格医药退出前十大重仓股，小康股份新入前十大重仓股。\n此前公告就会发现，广发小盘参与了小康股份非公开发行股票的认购。这部分流通受限的股票占基金资产净值比约1.68%。\n而2季报显示，小康股份占净值比约4.58%。也就是说，在2季度，除了参与定增，刘格菘也在二级市场买入了小康股份。\n\n小康股份年初股价在15元左右，6月份盘中一度超83元，涨幅超450%。随后股价有所回调，7月20日中午收盘报65.75元。\n04\n萧楠大举增持招商银行\n萧楠管理的易方达科顺定开披露2季报显示，该基金截至二季度末的股票仓位为90.98%，相比一季度末的89.53%略有提升。\n\n年内白酒股分化较大，从萧楠的持仓来看，十大重仓股中仍有6只白酒股。从第一第二大重仓股看，表现相对弱势的五粮液并未减持，而上半年涨超19%的山西汾酒反而持股数有所减少。\n招商银行的新入，或许是萧楠提到的大幅增持了银行板块的体现之一。2季报显示，招商银行占净值比约6%，一举成为第7大重仓股。\n此外，他继续加大了对养殖板块的投资，但从效果看并不理想——猪价的下跌超出之前的预期，但他并不担心相关标的的长期空间，相反，每一次行业低谷，都是优质企业扩张、竞争对手停滞倒退的弯道。\n去年他布局的一些低估值标的业绩表现一般，其中的原因除了市场风格，更多的是公司本身摆脱现有困境的努力还没有出现预期效果。好在，在这类标的的仓位并不多。过多的左侧投资的确会严重降低投资效率，因此二季度他适当做出了调整，将这类公司替换成估值同样便宜但更具备新增长动力的公司。\n而其他的板块调整从十大重仓股看并不明显，或许要等半年报给出更详细的信息。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2166,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171440339,"gmtCreate":1626759345321,"gmtModify":1703764667701,"author":{"id":"3582006747349058","authorId":"3582006747349058","name":"XiaoHui_0906","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582006747349058","idStr":"3582006747349058"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Juju?","listText":"Juju?","text":"Juju?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/171440339","repostId":"2152502996","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2511,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":true}