Profile - To The Moon

TSone

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- TSoneTSone
  ·03-03
  It may drop further
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- TSoneTSone
  ·2025-08-20
  $UMS(558.SI)$ 👍 👍The stock should likely remain range-bound between S$1.35 and S$1.40, with modest upside to S$1.45 if sentiment improves on 20 & 21 Aug 2025.
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- TSoneTSone
  ·2024-06-24
  $置地控股有限公司(H78.SI)$
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- TSoneTSone
  ·2022-10-10
  $奇士达(06918)$
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- TSoneTSone
  ·2022-05-02
  👍👍👍
  Reminder: A list of stock market closure arrangements for May Day and Eid al-Fitr.
  请留意股市休市时间，并提前安排好您的投资计划。
  Reminder: A list of stock market closure arrangements for May Day and Eid al-Fitr.
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- TSoneTSone
  ·2021-09-21
  Ok
  Reminder: The Mid-Autumn Festival market closure schedule is here! Hong Kong stocks are closed on the 22nd.
  2021年中秋节假期即将来临！各主要市场休市安排如下：港股： 9月22日（周三）休市。9月23日（周四）起照常开市。 A股： 9月20日（周一）至9月21日（周二）休市。9月22日（周三）起照常开市。美股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。沪股通和深股通： 9月17日（周五）至9月22日（周三）关闭。9月23日（周四）起照常开通。港股通： 9月16日（周四）至9月22日（周三）关闭。9月23日（周四）起照常开通。
  Reminder: The Mid-Autumn Festival market closure schedule is here! Hong Kong stocks are closed on the 22nd.
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- TSoneTSone
  ·2021-08-31
  ????
  91-year-old Warren Buffett: Still navigating cycles, value investing will not fall from its pedestal.
  这个名字永远带着浓厚的传奇色彩。
  91-year-old Warren Buffett: Still navigating cycles, value investing will not fall from its pedestal.
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may drop further&nbsp;","listText":"It may drop further&nbsp;","text":"It may drop further","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/538732768413232","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2355,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":469506833777048,"gmtCreate":1755674083272,"gmtModify":1755674086378,"author":{"id":"3582019358711250","authorId":"3582019358711250","name":"TSone","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1358fa925dbe900b88920116a8b434dd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582019358711250","authorIdStr":"3582019358711250"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/558.SI\">$UMS(558.SI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 👍 👍The stock should likely remain range-bound between S$1.35 and S$1.40, with modest upside to S$1.45 if sentiment improves on 20 &amp; 21 Aug 2025.","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/558.SI\">$UMS(558.SI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 👍 👍The stock should likely remain range-bound between S$1.35 and S$1.40, with modest upside to S$1.45 if sentiment improves on 20 &amp; 21 Aug 2025.","text":"$UMS(558.SI)$ 👍 👍The stock should likely remain range-bound between S$1.35 and S$1.40, with modest upside to S$1.45 if sentiment improves on 20 & 21 Aug 2025.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/469506833777048","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4529,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3572354921502456","authorId":"3572354921502456","name":"cynosys","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e63433b29c8793ada691bcaf88721c8b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3572354921502456","authorIdStr":"3572354921502456"},"content":"Agreed hopefully don't break the support of 1.34/1.35 else the next support will be 1.30.","text":"Agreed hopefully don't break the support of 1.34/1.35 else the next support will be 1.30.","html":"Agreed hopefully don't break the support of 1.34/1.35 else the next support will be 1.30."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":320255620526168,"gmtCreate":1719216481821,"gmtModify":1719216484339,"author":{"id":"3582019358711250","authorId":"3582019358711250","name":"TSone","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1358fa925dbe900b88920116a8b434dd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582019358711250","authorIdStr":"3582019358711250"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/H78.SI\">$置地控股有限公司(H78.SI)$</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/H78.SI\">$置地控股有限公司(H78.SI)$</a>&nbsp;","text":"$置地控股有限公司(H78.SI)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/320255620526168","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4270,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9917033330,"gmtCreate":1665379488720,"gmtModify":1676537596238,"author":{"id":"3582019358711250","authorId":"3582019358711250","name":"TSone","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1358fa925dbe900b88920116a8b434dd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582019358711250","authorIdStr":"3582019358711250"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/06918\">$奇士达(06918)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/06918\">$奇士达(06918)$</a>","text":"$奇士达(06918)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9917033330","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7474,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4121322879914382","authorId":"4121322879914382","name":"Edwht","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6ba34540ee511d68db8aea4f817fb35d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4121322879914382","authorIdStr":"4121322879914382"},"content":"trading price in the range of 0.77 to 0.89. All wary after the plunge. Unless there is good news coming. Or another scam operation.","text":"trading price in the range of 0.77 to 0.89. All wary after the plunge. Unless there is good news coming. Or another scam operation.","html":"trading price in the range of 0.77 to 0.89. All wary after the plunge. Unless there is good news coming. Or another scam operation."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9063810171,"gmtCreate":1651451792771,"gmtModify":1676534907326,"author":{"id":"3582019358711250","authorId":"3582019358711250","name":"TSone","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1358fa925dbe900b88920116a8b434dd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582019358711250","authorIdStr":"3582019358711250"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍👍👍","listText":"👍👍👍","text":"👍👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9063810171","repostId":"1128249329","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1128249329","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1651046450,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1128249329?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-27 16:00","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: A list of stock market closure arrangements for May Day and Eid al-Fitr.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128249329","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"请留意股市休市时间，并提前安排好您的投资计划。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Dear Investors:</p><p>With Labor Day (May 1) approaching, trading activities in the Singapore, Hong Kong, and A-share markets will be affected. In addition, the Singapore market will also be closed for Eid al-Fitr (May 3). Please pay attention to the specific circumstances and arrange your investment plan in advance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f91044bce608b672752b90e047c02f65\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Wishing you success in your investment!</p><p>Tiger Brokers</p><p><b>Market closure arrangement</b></p><p><b>US stocks</b></p><p>Trade as usual</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stocks</b></p><p>The market will be closed on Monday, May 2, and will reopen as usual on Tuesday, May 3.</p><p><b>A-shares</b></p><p>The market will be closed from May 2 (Monday) to May 4 (Wednesday), and will reopen as usual from May 5 (Thursday).</p><p><b>Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-</b></p><p>It will be closed from May 2 (Monday) to May 4 (Wednesday), and will reopen as usual on May 5 (Thursday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect</b></p><p>It will be closed from April 28 (Thursday) to May 4 (Wednesday), and will reopen as usual from May 5 (Thursday).</p><p><b>Singapore Market</b></p><p>Labor Day: Closed on Monday, May 2nd.</p><p>Eid al-Fitr: The market will be closed on Tuesday, May 3, and will reopen as usual from Wednesday, May 4.</p><p><b>Australian stock market</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>Background Introduction</b></p><p>May Day: International Workers' Day, also known as International Workers' Day or May Day, is a national holiday in more than 80 countries around the world. In July 1889, the Second International, led by Engels, held its congress in Paris. The meeting adopted a resolution designating May 1st as International Workers' Day. In December 1949, the State Council of the Central People's Government made a decision to designate May 1st as Labor Day.</p><p>Eid al-Fitr: One of the main festivals in Islam. Along with Eid al-Adha, it is considered one of the two major festivals in Islam. According to Muhammad's admonition to \"fast on the sight of the new moon and break the fast on the sight of the new moon,\" Ramadan begins each year with the sighting of the new moon in early September of the Islamic calendar and ends with the sighting of the new moon in early October of the Islamic calendar.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: A list of stock market closure arrangements for May Day and Eid al-Fitr.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: A list of stock market closure arrangements for May Day and Eid al-Fitr.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-04-27 16:00</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Dear Investors:</p><p>With Labor Day (May 1) approaching, trading activities in the Singapore, Hong Kong, and A-share markets will be affected. In addition, the Singapore market will also be closed for Eid al-Fitr (May 3). Please pay attention to the specific circumstances and arrange your investment plan in advance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f91044bce608b672752b90e047c02f65\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Wishing you success in your investment!</p><p>Tiger Brokers</p><p><b>Market closure arrangement</b></p><p><b>US stocks</b></p><p>Trade as usual</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stocks</b></p><p>The market will be closed on Monday, May 2, and will reopen as usual on Tuesday, May 3.</p><p><b>A-shares</b></p><p>The market will be closed from May 2 (Monday) to May 4 (Wednesday), and will reopen as usual from May 5 (Thursday).</p><p><b>Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-</b></p><p>It will be closed from May 2 (Monday) to May 4 (Wednesday), and will reopen as usual on May 5 (Thursday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect</b></p><p>It will be closed from April 28 (Thursday) to May 4 (Wednesday), and will reopen as usual from May 5 (Thursday).</p><p><b>Singapore Market</b></p><p>Labor Day: Closed on Monday, May 2nd.</p><p>Eid al-Fitr: The market will be closed on Tuesday, May 3, and will reopen as usual from Wednesday, May 4.</p><p><b>Australian stock market</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>Background Introduction</b></p><p>May Day: International Workers' Day, also known as International Workers' Day or May Day, is a national holiday in more than 80 countries around the world. In July 1889, the Second International, led by Engels, held its congress in Paris. The meeting adopted a resolution designating May 1st as International Workers' Day. In December 1949, the State Council of the Central People's Government made a decision to designate May 1st as Labor Day.</p><p>Eid al-Fitr: One of the main festivals in Islam. Along with Eid al-Adha, it is considered one of the two major festivals in Islam. According to Muhammad's admonition to \"fast on the sight of the new moon and break the fast on the sight of the new moon,\" Ramadan begins each year with the sighting of the new moon in early September of the Islamic calendar and ends with the sighting of the new moon in early October of the Islamic calendar.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/558942e83c0149418769df06131301a0","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128249329","content_text":"尊敬的投资者：劳动节（5月1日）即将到来，新加坡市场、香港市场和A股市场的交易活动将受到影响。此外，新加坡市场也将因开斋节（5月3日）而休市。请留意具体情况，提前安排好您的投资计划。预祝投资顺利！老虎证券休市安排美股照常交易港股5月2日（周一）休市，5月3日（周二）起照常开市。A股5月2日（周一）至5月4日（周三）休市，5月5日（周四）起照常开市。沪股通、深股通5月2日（周一）至5月4日（周三）关闭，5月5日（周四）照常开市。港股通4月28日（周四）至5月4日（周三）关闭，5月5日（周四）起照常开市。新加坡市场劳动节：5月2日（周一）休市。开斋节：5月3日（周二）休市，5月4日（周三）起照常开市。澳大利亚股市照常交易。背景简介五一劳动节：国际劳动节又称“五一国际劳动节”(International Workers' Day或者May Day)，是世界上80多个国家的全国性节日。1889年7月，由恩格斯领导的第二国际在巴黎举行代表大会。会议通过决议，把5月1日这一天定为国际劳动节。中央人民政府政务院于1949年12月作出决定，将5月1日确定为劳动节。开斋节：伊斯兰教主要节日之一。与宰牲节并称为伊斯兰教的两大节日。根据穆罕默德关于“见新月封斋，见新月开斋”的训谕，每年斋月始于伊斯兰教历9月初新月出现，结束于教历10月初见到新月时为止。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSI":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4607,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":860409203,"gmtCreate":1632193217302,"gmtModify":1676530722478,"author":{"id":"3582019358711250","authorId":"3582019358711250","name":"TSone","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1358fa925dbe900b88920116a8b434dd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582019358711250","authorIdStr":"3582019358711250"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/860409203","repostId":"1100031374","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100031374","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1631587259,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1100031374?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-14 10:40","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: The Mid-Autumn Festival market closure schedule is here! Hong Kong stocks are closed on the 22nd.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100031374","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"2021年中秋节假期即将来临！各主要市场休市安排如下：港股：\n\n\n9月22日（周三）休市。9月23日（周四）起照常开市。\n\n\nA股：\n\n\n9月20日（周一）至9月21日（周二）休市。9月22日（周三）起照常开市。\n\n\n美股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。\n\n\n沪股通和深股通：\n\n\n9月17日（周五）至9月22日（周三）关闭。9月23日（周四）起照常开通。\n\n\n港股通：\n\n\n9月16日（周四）至9月22日（周三）关闭。9月23日（周四）起照常开通。","content":"<p>The 2021 Mid-Autumn Festival holiday is approaching! Market closure arrangements for each major market are as follows:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a514042f0cc485274181ed3db4bcf541\" tg-width=\"1103\" tg-height=\"746\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>The market will be closed on Wednesday, September 22. The market will reopen as usual on Thursday, September 23.</p><p><b>A-shares:</b></p><p>The market will be closed from September 20 (Monday) to September 21 (Tuesday). The market will reopen as usual on Wednesday, September 22.</p><p><b>Trading in the US, UK, Australian, and Singapore stock markets will continue as usual.</b></p><p><b>Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong</b></p><p>Closed from Friday, September 17 to Wednesday, September 22. It will reopen as usual from Thursday, September 23.</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Closed from September 16 (Thursday) to September 22 (Wednesday). It will reopen as usual from Thursday, September 23.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75ca986d45037f1a0b113e295b82f3f9\" tg-width=\"2048\" tg-height=\"1311\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: The Mid-Autumn Festival market closure schedule is here! Hong Kong stocks are closed on the 22nd.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: The Mid-Autumn Festival market closure schedule is here! Hong Kong stocks are closed on the 22nd.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-14 10:40</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The 2021 Mid-Autumn Festival holiday is approaching! Market closure arrangements for each major market are as follows:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a514042f0cc485274181ed3db4bcf541\" tg-width=\"1103\" tg-height=\"746\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>The market will be closed on Wednesday, September 22. The market will reopen as usual on Thursday, September 23.</p><p><b>A-shares:</b></p><p>The market will be closed from September 20 (Monday) to September 21 (Tuesday). The market will reopen as usual on Wednesday, September 22.</p><p><b>Trading in the US, UK, Australian, and Singapore stock markets will continue as usual.</b></p><p><b>Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong</b></p><p>Closed from Friday, September 17 to Wednesday, September 22. It will reopen as usual from Thursday, September 23.</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Closed from September 16 (Thursday) to September 22 (Wednesday). It will reopen as usual from Thursday, September 23.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75ca986d45037f1a0b113e295b82f3f9\" tg-width=\"2048\" tg-height=\"1311\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75ca986d45037f1a0b113e295b82f3f9","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100031374","content_text":"2021年中秋节假期即将来临！各主要市场休市安排如下：港股：\n9月22日（周三）休市。9月23日（周四）起照常开市。\nA股：\n9月20日（周一）至9月21日（周二）休市。9月22日（周三）起照常开市。\n美股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。\n沪股通和深股通：\n9月17日（周五）至9月22日（周三）关闭。9月23日（周四）起照常开通。\n港股通：\n9月16日（周四）至9月22日（周三）关闭。9月23日（周四）起照常开通。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6038,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":811750762,"gmtCreate":1630361273956,"gmtModify":1676530278046,"author":{"id":"3582019358711250","authorId":"3582019358711250","name":"TSone","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1358fa925dbe900b88920116a8b434dd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582019358711250","authorIdStr":"3582019358711250"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"????","listText":"????","text":"????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/811750762","repostId":"1183198336","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183198336","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1630309929,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1183198336?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-30 15:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"91-year-old Warren Buffett: Still navigating cycles, value investing will not fall from its pedestal.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183198336","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"这个名字永远带着浓厚的传奇色彩。","content":"<p>Warren Buffett was born on August 30, 1930, in Omaha, Nebraska, USA. Today, he turns 91 years old.</p><p>Buffett was once asked questions about life. Buffett replied:</p><p>“Physically, I have no value left, only a little residual value. It’s really useless, but it doesn’t stop me from working, it doesn’t stop me from being happy, it doesn’t stop me from thinking. I don’t feel that my enjoyment and passion for life have diminished in any way. In fact, in a sense, the game I’m playing is becoming more and more interesting. It’s a competitive game, a big game, and I enjoy it very much.”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49e396b50629cd1c414da9f896d60017\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>This name will always be steeped in legend, from American Express to The Washington Post, from the classic legend of Coca-Cola to the 2008 financial crisis that saved Goldman Sachs from disaster. At the same time, its \"value investing\" philosophy has gradually become the creed of value investors. Moreover, Berkshire Hathaway, managed by Buffett, also occupies the top of the hierarchy due to its sky-high price of hundreds of thousands of dollars per share (Class A).</p><p>As a child, Buffett showed a sensitivity to numbers. In 1950, he entered Columbia University's Business School and became a student of Benjamin Graham, known as the \"father of value investors\". Buffett thrived under Graham.</p><p>In 1962, Buffett bought the first Berkshire Hathaway stock. In early 1965, Buffett gained control of Berkshire Hathaway. After that, Berkshire's business nature changed, and it was no longer a simple spinning company, but an investment entity. Buffett used it as a business platform, continuously acquiring other profitable companies and equity, creating an investment myth.</p><p>From 1965 to 2018, Berkshire's book value grew at a compound annual growth rate of 18.7%, significantly exceeding the S&P 500's 9.7%. From 1964 to 2018, Berkshire's overall growth rate was 1,091,899% (or more than 10,918 times), while the S&P 500 index was 15,019%. This is only an increase in book value; Berkshire's intrinsic value has increased far more than its book value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b81fe99f598432b496647628a93daf9\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"721\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data Source Warren Buffett's Letters to Berkshire Shareholders, 2018</p><p>If you had bought $10,000 worth of Berkshire Hathaway stock in 1965, after 53 years of Buffett's masterful management, its market value would have become approximately $247 million today—it's worth mentioning that this is after-tax income!</p><p><b>Classic case: How Buffett did it</b></p><p>Warren Buffett is a representative of concentrated equity investment, and his investment cases are few and far between. The fruitful results of these \"battles,\" relying on the power of compound interest, propelled Berkshire Hathaway into the top ten of U.S. publicly traded companies by market capitalization.</p><p><b>Seesee Candy</b></p><p>In 1972, Buffett acquired See's Candies for $25 million under the name of Blue Chip Printing Company (which was soon incorporated into Berkshire Hathaway).</p><p>Seesee Candy's average annual sales growth was slow, while the increase in unit price led to a surge in net profit.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d41b1c14b1f3e89a4dd75caf7702fbfc\" tg-width=\"753\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In a letter to shareholders in March 1984, Buffett stated that See's candy is worth much more than its book value. It is a branded enterprise whose products can be sold at a price higher than the cost of production, and will continue to have this pricing power in the future.</p><p>When Buffett looked back on the acquisition of See's Candy, he saw it as a fantastic and outstanding business. From 1972 to 2007, it contributed $1.35 billion in pre-tax profits to Berkshire Hathaway, of which only $32 million was used to supplement the company's working capital. After paying corporate profits tax, the remaining funds are used to buy other attractive businesses.</p><p>Seychelles brought Berkshire Hathaway many new sources of cash, which, as the Bible describes it, was \"plentiful and fruitful.\"</p><p><b>Government Employees Insurance Corporation (GEICO)</b></p><p>In 1976, Buffett bought $4 million worth of Government Employees Insurance Corporation (GEICO) stock. In 1980, Buffett made another large purchase of GEICO stock, holding a total of 7.2 million shares, accounting for 33% of GEICO's total share capital, at a total cost of $47.14 million. For 15 years after 1980, GEICO continuously repurchased company stock, and Berkshire's stake continued to increase. In 1995, Berkshire's stake had increased to 50%, and it spent $2.3 billion to acquire the remaining 50% stake. After acquiring full ownership, GEICO continuously contributed free insurance floats to Berkshire Hathaway for investment, helping Berkshire Hathaway's net asset value grow rapidly.</p><p>Buffett has a deep connection with the Government Employees Insurance Corporation (GEICO). Back in 1950, when Buffett was a student of Graham, he visited GEICO. David, then vice president of GEICO, received Buffett and spent about four hours explaining the insurance company's operating model in detail, telling Buffett that GEICO's core competitive advantage lay in the low cost advantage brought about by its direct sales model.</p><p>If GEICO is a valuable and highly regarded business fortress, then its cost and expense differentials with its peers are its moat.</p><p><b>Coca-Cola</b></p><p>In 1987, Coca-Cola was in trouble due to conflicts between bottlers provoked by Pepsi, and its stock price was relatively low. In 1988, Buffett began buying large amounts of Coca-Cola shares, holding a total of 14.17 million shares at a cost of 592 million. In 1989, the company continued to increase its holdings, doubling its total number of shares to 23.35 million, at a total cost of 1.024 billion yuan. In 1994, Buffett bought another $270 million worth of stock.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d296107134c53bad12b6b6f54f1ceffa\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>To this day, Coca-Cola remains Berkshire Hathaway's top holding, accounting for 9.79% of its total holdings, holding 400 million shares with a market value of over $20 billion, and receiving a total of approximately $6 billion in dividends during this period.</p><p>Buffett has a true love for Coca-Cola. At a Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting, Buffett said that he drinks cola every day and has been using this lifestyle since 1982. \"If I could live an extra year by eating only healthy vegetables like asparagus and broccoli every day, and if drinking cola and eating chocolate every day could make me happier but shorten my lifespan by a year, then I would be willing to trade a year of my life for such happiness. That is my choice.\"</p><p>Coca-Cola is an exceptional company whose management cares about shareholders' return on capital and tangible cash returns. The company can operate asset-light businesses while also achieving extremely strong profitability. The company's growth has both a long history of sustainability and a clear outlook for the coming decades. Coca-Cola is classified by Buffett as an \"eternal holding\".</p><p>Other classic examples scattered throughout Berkshire's annual report include:</p><p>The Washington Post, which was acquired in 1973, underwent a share swap in 2014, yielding an annualized return of 12%.</p><p>Scott Fitzel, who was purchased in 1986, contributed a total of $1.03 billion in dividends to Berkshire Hathaway by 2000.</p><p>Freddie Mac, which began buying in 1988, sold all of its shares in 2000, with a total pre-tax profit of approximately $3 billion.</p><p>The PetroChina H shares purchased in 2003 were all sold between July and October 2007, generating a pre-tax investment income of approximately US$3.55 billion.</p><p>Wait, wait.</p><p>These vivid examples not only string together outstanding investment achievements that shine throughout the world, but also reflect changes in investment philosophy and Buffett's investment thinking.</p><p>Buffett is an excellent corporate learner who can quickly and accurately identify the key complexities of a company. He can veto an investment within two minutes and make a major investment decision within two days of analysis. He was always prepared, as he said in the company's annual report: \"Noah didn't wait until it rained to start building the ark.\"</p><p>He doesn't care about how the stock market performs in the short term, emphasizing that determining the company's intrinsic value and a fair and safe price are essential elements of investing. He never invests in companies he doesn't understand or companies outside his sphere of competence. In the 1990s, he pointed out that the results of 12 investment decisions in his 40-year career had set him apart.</p><p><b>Warren Buffett is not outdated; value investing remains on a pedestal.</b></p><p>As a living stock market guru, his outstanding historical achievements are certainly something everyone should learn from and deconstruct. However, numerous academic studies do not have a high degree of consensus on his outstanding historical achievements, and some academic researchers even attribute his performance to luck. In recent years, an academic paper from AQR called Buffett's Alpha concluded that Buffett's excess returns came from investing in safe, high-quality, and cheap stocks, and that the returns implied leverage of 1.4 to 1.6 times due to the extremely low capital costs of Berkshire's insurance business.</p><p>However, to date, there haven't been many studies analyzing Buffett's performance from a behavioral finance perspective. Buffett said in 1987:</p><p>\"In my view, successful investing will not come from mysterious formulas, computer programs, or flashing signals from market prices. On the contrary, investors will succeed if they combine successful business judgment with investment actions, achieve unity of knowledge and action, and their emotions are not affected by market fluctuations.\" Actually, I am not a staunch supporter of the market efficiency hypothesis. I believe that the market is not perfect, but it is not completely irrational either.</p><p>Based on my research experience, Buffett's outstanding historical performance stems from his investment style and cost of capital (i.e., the quantitative part of traditional finance), his and Munger's investment behavior (i.e., the part of behavioral finance), and, on the other hand, there is indeed an element of luck. As the saying goes, none of the favorable timing, location, and people are missing.</p><p>So what exactly did he do right to achieve such investment success? Is it extraordinary ability, luck, or a matter of standing up for oneself?<b>This time, we'll discuss three aspects: investment ability, luck, and behavioral finance.</b></p><p>Excellent investment capabilities are the core</p><p>First, we will use the classic Fama-French 5-factor model to gain an in-depth understanding and analysis of Buffett's style. The five-factor model is based on the famous three-factor model, adding the profit factor RMW (Robust Minus Weak) and the investment factor CMA (Conservative Minus Aggressive). Meanwhile, based on the statistical results of the five-factor model, we processed the original model, removing the market capitalization factor SMB (Small Minus Big) and investment factors, which contributed very little and insignificantly, and introducing the Quality factor QMJ (Quality Minus Junk) and Betting factor BAB (Betting Against Beta) of AQR to form a new FF five-factor model, which more accurately divides the contributions of the factors. The specific assumptions and premises of the model will not be elaborated here.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e21a3224526bbc762d1af144bd187fcd\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The above breaks down Berkshire's excess return attribution analysis. From the traditional Fama-French five-factor model, it can be seen that the market itself and excess returns are the two largest proportions, followed by high value and high profitability. The market itself and excess returns accounted for 80.2% of the contribution. In other words, Buffett's success is partly due to the long-term rise in the market (national fortune) and partly to his own excellence (ability).</p><p>It is important to note that attribution analysis revealed a negative contribution from small market capitalization. This does not necessarily mean that this factor has no effect; it may also be due to discussions regarding the selection of time periods or indicators. Looking at our improved new FF5 model, we can see that most of the excess returns that could not be explained before have dropped from 6.66% to 2.40%, which is largely explained by the two factors of high quality and low beta.</p><p>Buffett's remarkable performance is largely attributed to his use of high leverage to buy safe, high-quality, and inexpensive stocks at low financing costs and hold them for the long term. No matter how you study it, you can find that Buffett is good at using leverage to amplify returns. However, high leverage can only explain part of its amazing performance; simply blindly using high leverage can actually reduce its returns. From a financing perspective, Buffett's main sources of financing are AAA-rated high-quality bonds and the company's cheap premium income, using a cyclical model of debt-driven investment and investment expanding debt.</p><p>In summary, choosing high-quality, low-beta, and high-value stocks is Buffett's style, which is what Buffett himself said: investing in high-quality companies at average prices is better than investing in average companies at cheap prices. His success was one-third due to fate (gambling on the luck of the times and the country), and mostly due to people (his personal investment ability was too excellent).</p><p>Luck always favors the prepared.</p><p>But some people might ask, out of billions of people in the world, only one Buffett has emerged? Is it just luck? Perhaps all the good fortune in the world is concentrated on this one person? Now let's explore whether the altar is a human or a god. During the 38 years from 1980 to 2017, we first conducted a simple CAPM regression analysis of Berkshire Hathaway's returns, yielding the following results:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84dfe1bf5c4910c0ab0ab36c678559cc\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Where beta is approximately 0.65, the cross-intercept alpha is 0.0096, and both parameters pass a significant test, indicating that we reject the original assumption that Buffett's excess returns are zero. Furthermore, in terms of yield, we can see that the excess annualized yield obtained through the simple CAPM model reached 11.52%. From a risk perspective, the volatility of its excess returns (the square root of the total variance of returns minus the variance of market returns) can be calculated as 16.83%.</p><p>To better illustrate Buffett's luck component, we use the following model assumptions:</p><p><ul><li>At the same initial moment, 10,000 completely independent investors invested $1 with Buffett;</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>These investors' returns are completely random, and their annual excess returns follow a normal distribution with a mean of 0 and a variance of 16.83%.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>These investors will hold firmly until the end of 2017, regardless of the price fluctuations during that period.</p><p></li></ul>After 10,000 random fittings, the results are shown in the figure below:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6555420a8a2e9b5b7c819f679de6457c\" tg-width=\"929\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the chart above, the blue line represents Buffett's cumulative return, and the orange line indicates that the final cumulative return exceeds Buffett's random fit growth.</p><p>As can be seen from the chart, out of 10,000 investors who followed Buffett's return distribution but fluctuated randomly (based on luck), only 14 ultimately achieved higher investment performance than Buffett! Furthermore, as can be seen from the chart, Buffett's growth line was almost consistently at the top of the entire random fit throughout the entire holding period.</p><p>Its consistently outstanding performance, consistently within the top 0.2%, is certainly not due to random luck, but rather a testament to its genuine investment strength. Some people might not take it seriously, but there are still 14 \"geniuses\" who are more powerful than Buffett. Let's take the returns of these 14 investors and do a simple study to see if we would choose those who seem more \"awesome\".</p><p><ul><li>Fourteen investors who outperformed Buffett were divided into four groups according to their annualized returns, with the investor with the largest, 75th percentile, 25th percentile, and smallest being the representative of each group.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Compare the excess returns of these four investors relative to Buffett, and compare the 10-year rolling annualized returns over the same period (1980-2017).</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166baf7d6a3cd7460b50e8e7f78f36a\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Have you noticed that these investors who ultimately outperform Buffett (above the red benchmark) may not even survive in the early stages? Take the best performer (blue) as an example. Before 2005, for nearly 25 years, his performance was consistently worse than Buffett's. His catching up with and surpassing Buffett was almost entirely due to the explosive growth after 2010.</p><p>Such fund managers have probably already been abandoned by investors in reality, so there is no question of a subsequent explosive growth.</p><p>It seems that, having read this far, everyone believes that Buffett's pedestal is out of reach. However, this model has many problems in practice. First, the independence of investors. Even if everyone holds different stocks or assets, their returns will not be completely independent. Secondly, regarding the investment holding period, in real life, a long-term, unchanging investment of 38 years, without considering individual lifespan, should only exist in long-term fund management institutions similar to pension funds.</p><p>However, despite its various flaws, this model still illustrates one point well: trying to defeat Buffett on his pedestal through luck? It's very rare.</p><p>Be self-reliant and have a clear understanding of your circle of competence.</p><p>From a behavioral perspective, value investing is actually about making money from the rebound in value after an oversold price created by the market's overreaction to bad news. But how do we determine whether a company is undervalued because its fundamentals are indeed poor, it has lost its market position, or because the market has overreacted under irrational perceptions? These issues, which are difficult to explain in a single sentence, are actually the most challenging aspects of value investing. Value investing is contrarian investing, which requires contrarian thinking and investment behavior that goes against human nature.</p><p>In Expectations and Investments, Nicola Gennaioli, Yueran Ma, and Andrei Shleifer note:</p><p>High profit margins over the past year can make investors overly optimistic; The low profit margins of the past year can make investors overly pessimistic. In Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk, Josef Lakonishok, Andrei Shleifer, and Robert Vishny note:</p><p>Some investors tend to be overly optimistic about stocks that have performed well in the past, leading to overvaluations of these \"beautiful\" stocks. Joseph D. Piotroski, Eric C. So in Identifying Expectation Errors in Value/Glamour Strategies: A Fundamental Analysis Approach:</p><p>The mispricing of stocks stems from investors' excessive optimism about \"overvalued\" stocks and excessive pessimism about \"undervalued\" stocks. Buffett's outstanding historical performance, aside from his exceptional investment ability and low capital costs, and his and Munger's superior behavior and psychology, as well as their accumulated self-cultivation, are also necessary conditions for success.</p><p>This includes overcoming humanity's innate Cognitive and Emotional biases. Buffett and Munger's decision-making styles, cognitive abilities, and emotional discipline all complement Buffett's strong performance. In particular, the influence of Munger, a master of investment and philosophy, on Buffett is an important behavioral factor in Buffett's outstanding performance.</p><p>In 2014, Munger defined four factors contributing to Buffett's success: 1. Buffett's structural personal charisma traits, 2. Berkshire's structural decision-making system, 3. Good luck, 4. The bizarre and intensely contagious dedication of some shareholders, other admirers, and even some in the press.</p><p>In my view, both the factors mentioned above and Buffett's investment framework, which he excels at, can reduce the impact of Over-Confident Bias on investment decisions. Overconfidence bias refers to the situation where our subjective confidence in our judgments is relatively higher than what is actually objectively determined. Overconfidence includes three aspects: overestimation, overplacement, and overprecision.</p><p>Although the consequences of different types of overconfidence are not the same, they have one thing in common: they can lead to long-term and continuous bad financial and other decisions.</p><p>Some studies have shown that overconfidence is not only a common weakness of financial market traders, but more importantly, these seasoned traders often ignore this weakness because the bias of overconfidence is deeply rooted in the human subconscious and is often referred to as \"the root of all biases\".</p><p>From the writings and speeches of Buffett and Munger, we can see that they are keenly aware of overconfidence, the root of all biases, and are very careful about it, taking a series of measures to avoid or minimize the negative impact of overconfidence on decision-making. As Munger said:</p><p>\"People have long misjudged their own scope of knowledge, which is one of the most basic characteristics of human nature. Knowing the scope of one's abilities is one of the most difficult things for humans to do. Knowing what one does not know is more useful in life and business than becoming excellent.\" At the end</p><p>Over 38 years, Buffett and Munger together achieved an annualized return of over 20%, a cumulative increase of more than 1,100 times, far outperforming the already decent S&P 500 index. Buffett's earnings are partly due to the dividends of the overall market environment, but more so to his personal stock selection skills, in which buying high-quality, low-volatility and high-value stocks is his investment style.</p><p>Buffett's excess returns are not due to luck, and it is almost unrealistic to expect him to beat him by chance. As Buffett's best partner, Munger, with his personal charisma and personality, as well as his great philosophical system, is a behavioral mentor for Buffett's outstanding historical achievements.</p><p>However, even a combination as strong as Buffett and Munger has historically underperformed the market significantly at times. If value investing can outperform the market every moment, then countless investors will inevitably flock in, making value investing strategies ineffective. It is precisely the large cyclical tracking error that amplifies investors' irrational behavior, rendering the market efficiency hypothesis invalid and creating opportunities for determined value investors to outperform the market over the long term.</p><p>However, the inherent high tracking error of value investing in the market is also a double-edged sword. Out of 100 value investors, there are 100 reasons to believe in value investing, and also 100 painful experiences of practicing value investing but failing because they could not tolerate tracking errors. As value investors, we need to hold stocks that are endlessly despised by Wall Street, we need to stay away from noisy and superficial stock reviews, we need to maintain our beliefs amidst major market fluctuations, and we need to have enough courage to navigate the long cycle of value investing.</p><p>Let us encourage each other with this.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>91-year-old Warren Buffett: Still navigating cycles, value investing will not fall from its pedestal.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n91-year-old Warren Buffett: Still navigating cycles, value investing will not fall from its pedestal.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-30 15:52</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Warren Buffett was born on August 30, 1930, in Omaha, Nebraska, USA. Today, he turns 91 years old.</p><p>Buffett was once asked questions about life. Buffett replied:</p><p>“Physically, I have no value left, only a little residual value. It’s really useless, but it doesn’t stop me from working, it doesn’t stop me from being happy, it doesn’t stop me from thinking. I don’t feel that my enjoyment and passion for life have diminished in any way. In fact, in a sense, the game I’m playing is becoming more and more interesting. It’s a competitive game, a big game, and I enjoy it very much.”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49e396b50629cd1c414da9f896d60017\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>This name will always be steeped in legend, from American Express to The Washington Post, from the classic legend of Coca-Cola to the 2008 financial crisis that saved Goldman Sachs from disaster. At the same time, its \"value investing\" philosophy has gradually become the creed of value investors. Moreover, Berkshire Hathaway, managed by Buffett, also occupies the top of the hierarchy due to its sky-high price of hundreds of thousands of dollars per share (Class A).</p><p>As a child, Buffett showed a sensitivity to numbers. In 1950, he entered Columbia University's Business School and became a student of Benjamin Graham, known as the \"father of value investors\". Buffett thrived under Graham.</p><p>In 1962, Buffett bought the first Berkshire Hathaway stock. In early 1965, Buffett gained control of Berkshire Hathaway. After that, Berkshire's business nature changed, and it was no longer a simple spinning company, but an investment entity. Buffett used it as a business platform, continuously acquiring other profitable companies and equity, creating an investment myth.</p><p>From 1965 to 2018, Berkshire's book value grew at a compound annual growth rate of 18.7%, significantly exceeding the S&P 500's 9.7%. From 1964 to 2018, Berkshire's overall growth rate was 1,091,899% (or more than 10,918 times), while the S&P 500 index was 15,019%. This is only an increase in book value; Berkshire's intrinsic value has increased far more than its book value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b81fe99f598432b496647628a93daf9\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"721\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data Source Warren Buffett's Letters to Berkshire Shareholders, 2018</p><p>If you had bought $10,000 worth of Berkshire Hathaway stock in 1965, after 53 years of Buffett's masterful management, its market value would have become approximately $247 million today—it's worth mentioning that this is after-tax income!</p><p><b>Classic case: How Buffett did it</b></p><p>Warren Buffett is a representative of concentrated equity investment, and his investment cases are few and far between. The fruitful results of these \"battles,\" relying on the power of compound interest, propelled Berkshire Hathaway into the top ten of U.S. publicly traded companies by market capitalization.</p><p><b>Seesee Candy</b></p><p>In 1972, Buffett acquired See's Candies for $25 million under the name of Blue Chip Printing Company (which was soon incorporated into Berkshire Hathaway).</p><p>Seesee Candy's average annual sales growth was slow, while the increase in unit price led to a surge in net profit.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d41b1c14b1f3e89a4dd75caf7702fbfc\" tg-width=\"753\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In a letter to shareholders in March 1984, Buffett stated that See's candy is worth much more than its book value. It is a branded enterprise whose products can be sold at a price higher than the cost of production, and will continue to have this pricing power in the future.</p><p>When Buffett looked back on the acquisition of See's Candy, he saw it as a fantastic and outstanding business. From 1972 to 2007, it contributed $1.35 billion in pre-tax profits to Berkshire Hathaway, of which only $32 million was used to supplement the company's working capital. After paying corporate profits tax, the remaining funds are used to buy other attractive businesses.</p><p>Seychelles brought Berkshire Hathaway many new sources of cash, which, as the Bible describes it, was \"plentiful and fruitful.\"</p><p><b>Government Employees Insurance Corporation (GEICO)</b></p><p>In 1976, Buffett bought $4 million worth of Government Employees Insurance Corporation (GEICO) stock. In 1980, Buffett made another large purchase of GEICO stock, holding a total of 7.2 million shares, accounting for 33% of GEICO's total share capital, at a total cost of $47.14 million. For 15 years after 1980, GEICO continuously repurchased company stock, and Berkshire's stake continued to increase. In 1995, Berkshire's stake had increased to 50%, and it spent $2.3 billion to acquire the remaining 50% stake. After acquiring full ownership, GEICO continuously contributed free insurance floats to Berkshire Hathaway for investment, helping Berkshire Hathaway's net asset value grow rapidly.</p><p>Buffett has a deep connection with the Government Employees Insurance Corporation (GEICO). Back in 1950, when Buffett was a student of Graham, he visited GEICO. David, then vice president of GEICO, received Buffett and spent about four hours explaining the insurance company's operating model in detail, telling Buffett that GEICO's core competitive advantage lay in the low cost advantage brought about by its direct sales model.</p><p>If GEICO is a valuable and highly regarded business fortress, then its cost and expense differentials with its peers are its moat.</p><p><b>Coca-Cola</b></p><p>In 1987, Coca-Cola was in trouble due to conflicts between bottlers provoked by Pepsi, and its stock price was relatively low. In 1988, Buffett began buying large amounts of Coca-Cola shares, holding a total of 14.17 million shares at a cost of 592 million. In 1989, the company continued to increase its holdings, doubling its total number of shares to 23.35 million, at a total cost of 1.024 billion yuan. In 1994, Buffett bought another $270 million worth of stock.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d296107134c53bad12b6b6f54f1ceffa\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>To this day, Coca-Cola remains Berkshire Hathaway's top holding, accounting for 9.79% of its total holdings, holding 400 million shares with a market value of over $20 billion, and receiving a total of approximately $6 billion in dividends during this period.</p><p>Buffett has a true love for Coca-Cola. At a Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting, Buffett said that he drinks cola every day and has been using this lifestyle since 1982. \"If I could live an extra year by eating only healthy vegetables like asparagus and broccoli every day, and if drinking cola and eating chocolate every day could make me happier but shorten my lifespan by a year, then I would be willing to trade a year of my life for such happiness. That is my choice.\"</p><p>Coca-Cola is an exceptional company whose management cares about shareholders' return on capital and tangible cash returns. The company can operate asset-light businesses while also achieving extremely strong profitability. The company's growth has both a long history of sustainability and a clear outlook for the coming decades. Coca-Cola is classified by Buffett as an \"eternal holding\".</p><p>Other classic examples scattered throughout Berkshire's annual report include:</p><p>The Washington Post, which was acquired in 1973, underwent a share swap in 2014, yielding an annualized return of 12%.</p><p>Scott Fitzel, who was purchased in 1986, contributed a total of $1.03 billion in dividends to Berkshire Hathaway by 2000.</p><p>Freddie Mac, which began buying in 1988, sold all of its shares in 2000, with a total pre-tax profit of approximately $3 billion.</p><p>The PetroChina H shares purchased in 2003 were all sold between July and October 2007, generating a pre-tax investment income of approximately US$3.55 billion.</p><p>Wait, wait.</p><p>These vivid examples not only string together outstanding investment achievements that shine throughout the world, but also reflect changes in investment philosophy and Buffett's investment thinking.</p><p>Buffett is an excellent corporate learner who can quickly and accurately identify the key complexities of a company. He can veto an investment within two minutes and make a major investment decision within two days of analysis. He was always prepared, as he said in the company's annual report: \"Noah didn't wait until it rained to start building the ark.\"</p><p>He doesn't care about how the stock market performs in the short term, emphasizing that determining the company's intrinsic value and a fair and safe price are essential elements of investing. He never invests in companies he doesn't understand or companies outside his sphere of competence. In the 1990s, he pointed out that the results of 12 investment decisions in his 40-year career had set him apart.</p><p><b>Warren Buffett is not outdated; value investing remains on a pedestal.</b></p><p>As a living stock market guru, his outstanding historical achievements are certainly something everyone should learn from and deconstruct. However, numerous academic studies do not have a high degree of consensus on his outstanding historical achievements, and some academic researchers even attribute his performance to luck. In recent years, an academic paper from AQR called Buffett's Alpha concluded that Buffett's excess returns came from investing in safe, high-quality, and cheap stocks, and that the returns implied leverage of 1.4 to 1.6 times due to the extremely low capital costs of Berkshire's insurance business.</p><p>However, to date, there haven't been many studies analyzing Buffett's performance from a behavioral finance perspective. Buffett said in 1987:</p><p>\"In my view, successful investing will not come from mysterious formulas, computer programs, or flashing signals from market prices. On the contrary, investors will succeed if they combine successful business judgment with investment actions, achieve unity of knowledge and action, and their emotions are not affected by market fluctuations.\" Actually, I am not a staunch supporter of the market efficiency hypothesis. I believe that the market is not perfect, but it is not completely irrational either.</p><p>Based on my research experience, Buffett's outstanding historical performance stems from his investment style and cost of capital (i.e., the quantitative part of traditional finance), his and Munger's investment behavior (i.e., the part of behavioral finance), and, on the other hand, there is indeed an element of luck. As the saying goes, none of the favorable timing, location, and people are missing.</p><p>So what exactly did he do right to achieve such investment success? Is it extraordinary ability, luck, or a matter of standing up for oneself?<b>This time, we'll discuss three aspects: investment ability, luck, and behavioral finance.</b></p><p>Excellent investment capabilities are the core</p><p>First, we will use the classic Fama-French 5-factor model to gain an in-depth understanding and analysis of Buffett's style. The five-factor model is based on the famous three-factor model, adding the profit factor RMW (Robust Minus Weak) and the investment factor CMA (Conservative Minus Aggressive). Meanwhile, based on the statistical results of the five-factor model, we processed the original model, removing the market capitalization factor SMB (Small Minus Big) and investment factors, which contributed very little and insignificantly, and introducing the Quality factor QMJ (Quality Minus Junk) and Betting factor BAB (Betting Against Beta) of AQR to form a new FF five-factor model, which more accurately divides the contributions of the factors. The specific assumptions and premises of the model will not be elaborated here.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e21a3224526bbc762d1af144bd187fcd\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The above breaks down Berkshire's excess return attribution analysis. From the traditional Fama-French five-factor model, it can be seen that the market itself and excess returns are the two largest proportions, followed by high value and high profitability. The market itself and excess returns accounted for 80.2% of the contribution. In other words, Buffett's success is partly due to the long-term rise in the market (national fortune) and partly to his own excellence (ability).</p><p>It is important to note that attribution analysis revealed a negative contribution from small market capitalization. This does not necessarily mean that this factor has no effect; it may also be due to discussions regarding the selection of time periods or indicators. Looking at our improved new FF5 model, we can see that most of the excess returns that could not be explained before have dropped from 6.66% to 2.40%, which is largely explained by the two factors of high quality and low beta.</p><p>Buffett's remarkable performance is largely attributed to his use of high leverage to buy safe, high-quality, and inexpensive stocks at low financing costs and hold them for the long term. No matter how you study it, you can find that Buffett is good at using leverage to amplify returns. However, high leverage can only explain part of its amazing performance; simply blindly using high leverage can actually reduce its returns. From a financing perspective, Buffett's main sources of financing are AAA-rated high-quality bonds and the company's cheap premium income, using a cyclical model of debt-driven investment and investment expanding debt.</p><p>In summary, choosing high-quality, low-beta, and high-value stocks is Buffett's style, which is what Buffett himself said: investing in high-quality companies at average prices is better than investing in average companies at cheap prices. His success was one-third due to fate (gambling on the luck of the times and the country), and mostly due to people (his personal investment ability was too excellent).</p><p>Luck always favors the prepared.</p><p>But some people might ask, out of billions of people in the world, only one Buffett has emerged? Is it just luck? Perhaps all the good fortune in the world is concentrated on this one person? Now let's explore whether the altar is a human or a god. During the 38 years from 1980 to 2017, we first conducted a simple CAPM regression analysis of Berkshire Hathaway's returns, yielding the following results:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84dfe1bf5c4910c0ab0ab36c678559cc\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Where beta is approximately 0.65, the cross-intercept alpha is 0.0096, and both parameters pass a significant test, indicating that we reject the original assumption that Buffett's excess returns are zero. Furthermore, in terms of yield, we can see that the excess annualized yield obtained through the simple CAPM model reached 11.52%. From a risk perspective, the volatility of its excess returns (the square root of the total variance of returns minus the variance of market returns) can be calculated as 16.83%.</p><p>To better illustrate Buffett's luck component, we use the following model assumptions:</p><p><ul><li>At the same initial moment, 10,000 completely independent investors invested $1 with Buffett;</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>These investors' returns are completely random, and their annual excess returns follow a normal distribution with a mean of 0 and a variance of 16.83%.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>These investors will hold firmly until the end of 2017, regardless of the price fluctuations during that period.</p><p></li></ul>After 10,000 random fittings, the results are shown in the figure below:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6555420a8a2e9b5b7c819f679de6457c\" tg-width=\"929\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the chart above, the blue line represents Buffett's cumulative return, and the orange line indicates that the final cumulative return exceeds Buffett's random fit growth.</p><p>As can be seen from the chart, out of 10,000 investors who followed Buffett's return distribution but fluctuated randomly (based on luck), only 14 ultimately achieved higher investment performance than Buffett! Furthermore, as can be seen from the chart, Buffett's growth line was almost consistently at the top of the entire random fit throughout the entire holding period.</p><p>Its consistently outstanding performance, consistently within the top 0.2%, is certainly not due to random luck, but rather a testament to its genuine investment strength. Some people might not take it seriously, but there are still 14 \"geniuses\" who are more powerful than Buffett. Let's take the returns of these 14 investors and do a simple study to see if we would choose those who seem more \"awesome\".</p><p><ul><li>Fourteen investors who outperformed Buffett were divided into four groups according to their annualized returns, with the investor with the largest, 75th percentile, 25th percentile, and smallest being the representative of each group.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Compare the excess returns of these four investors relative to Buffett, and compare the 10-year rolling annualized returns over the same period (1980-2017).</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166baf7d6a3cd7460b50e8e7f78f36a\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Have you noticed that these investors who ultimately outperform Buffett (above the red benchmark) may not even survive in the early stages? Take the best performer (blue) as an example. Before 2005, for nearly 25 years, his performance was consistently worse than Buffett's. His catching up with and surpassing Buffett was almost entirely due to the explosive growth after 2010.</p><p>Such fund managers have probably already been abandoned by investors in reality, so there is no question of a subsequent explosive growth.</p><p>It seems that, having read this far, everyone believes that Buffett's pedestal is out of reach. However, this model has many problems in practice. First, the independence of investors. Even if everyone holds different stocks or assets, their returns will not be completely independent. Secondly, regarding the investment holding period, in real life, a long-term, unchanging investment of 38 years, without considering individual lifespan, should only exist in long-term fund management institutions similar to pension funds.</p><p>However, despite its various flaws, this model still illustrates one point well: trying to defeat Buffett on his pedestal through luck? It's very rare.</p><p>Be self-reliant and have a clear understanding of your circle of competence.</p><p>From a behavioral perspective, value investing is actually about making money from the rebound in value after an oversold price created by the market's overreaction to bad news. But how do we determine whether a company is undervalued because its fundamentals are indeed poor, it has lost its market position, or because the market has overreacted under irrational perceptions? These issues, which are difficult to explain in a single sentence, are actually the most challenging aspects of value investing. Value investing is contrarian investing, which requires contrarian thinking and investment behavior that goes against human nature.</p><p>In Expectations and Investments, Nicola Gennaioli, Yueran Ma, and Andrei Shleifer note:</p><p>High profit margins over the past year can make investors overly optimistic; The low profit margins of the past year can make investors overly pessimistic. In Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk, Josef Lakonishok, Andrei Shleifer, and Robert Vishny note:</p><p>Some investors tend to be overly optimistic about stocks that have performed well in the past, leading to overvaluations of these \"beautiful\" stocks. Joseph D. Piotroski, Eric C. So in Identifying Expectation Errors in Value/Glamour Strategies: A Fundamental Analysis Approach:</p><p>The mispricing of stocks stems from investors' excessive optimism about \"overvalued\" stocks and excessive pessimism about \"undervalued\" stocks. Buffett's outstanding historical performance, aside from his exceptional investment ability and low capital costs, and his and Munger's superior behavior and psychology, as well as their accumulated self-cultivation, are also necessary conditions for success.</p><p>This includes overcoming humanity's innate Cognitive and Emotional biases. Buffett and Munger's decision-making styles, cognitive abilities, and emotional discipline all complement Buffett's strong performance. In particular, the influence of Munger, a master of investment and philosophy, on Buffett is an important behavioral factor in Buffett's outstanding performance.</p><p>In 2014, Munger defined four factors contributing to Buffett's success: 1. Buffett's structural personal charisma traits, 2. Berkshire's structural decision-making system, 3. Good luck, 4. The bizarre and intensely contagious dedication of some shareholders, other admirers, and even some in the press.</p><p>In my view, both the factors mentioned above and Buffett's investment framework, which he excels at, can reduce the impact of Over-Confident Bias on investment decisions. Overconfidence bias refers to the situation where our subjective confidence in our judgments is relatively higher than what is actually objectively determined. Overconfidence includes three aspects: overestimation, overplacement, and overprecision.</p><p>Although the consequences of different types of overconfidence are not the same, they have one thing in common: they can lead to long-term and continuous bad financial and other decisions.</p><p>Some studies have shown that overconfidence is not only a common weakness of financial market traders, but more importantly, these seasoned traders often ignore this weakness because the bias of overconfidence is deeply rooted in the human subconscious and is often referred to as \"the root of all biases\".</p><p>From the writings and speeches of Buffett and Munger, we can see that they are keenly aware of overconfidence, the root of all biases, and are very careful about it, taking a series of measures to avoid or minimize the negative impact of overconfidence on decision-making. As Munger said:</p><p>\"People have long misjudged their own scope of knowledge, which is one of the most basic characteristics of human nature. Knowing the scope of one's abilities is one of the most difficult things for humans to do. Knowing what one does not know is more useful in life and business than becoming excellent.\" At the end</p><p>Over 38 years, Buffett and Munger together achieved an annualized return of over 20%, a cumulative increase of more than 1,100 times, far outperforming the already decent S&P 500 index. Buffett's earnings are partly due to the dividends of the overall market environment, but more so to his personal stock selection skills, in which buying high-quality, low-volatility and high-value stocks is his investment style.</p><p>Buffett's excess returns are not due to luck, and it is almost unrealistic to expect him to beat him by chance. As Buffett's best partner, Munger, with his personal charisma and personality, as well as his great philosophical system, is a behavioral mentor for Buffett's outstanding historical achievements.</p><p>However, even a combination as strong as Buffett and Munger has historically underperformed the market significantly at times. If value investing can outperform the market every moment, then countless investors will inevitably flock in, making value investing strategies ineffective. It is precisely the large cyclical tracking error that amplifies investors' irrational behavior, rendering the market efficiency hypothesis invalid and creating opportunities for determined value investors to outperform the market over the long term.</p><p>However, the inherent high tracking error of value investing in the market is also a double-edged sword. Out of 100 value investors, there are 100 reasons to believe in value investing, and also 100 painful experiences of practicing value investing but failing because they could not tolerate tracking errors. As value investors, we need to hold stocks that are endlessly despised by Wall Street, we need to stay away from noisy and superficial stock reviews, we need to maintain our beliefs amidst major market fluctuations, and we need to have enough courage to navigate the long cycle of value investing.</p><p>Let us encourage each other with this.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9beffeecb928009bf6287e307899ffe3","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183198336","content_text":"沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett），1930年8月30日出生于美国内布拉斯加州的奥马哈小镇，今天，他年满91岁。\n曾有人问巴菲特关于生命的问题。巴菲特回答：\n“在身体上我已经没有什么价值了，仅剩一点残值，它真的没有什么用了，但它不妨碍我工作，不妨碍我感到快乐，不妨碍我思考。我不感觉我对生活的享受，和热爱有任何减少，事实上，在某种意义上，我所处的游戏正变得越来越有趣，这是富有竞争的游戏，很大一场游戏，我很享受这场游戏。”\n\n这个名字永远带着浓厚的传奇色彩，从当年的美国运通到华盛顿邮报，从可口可乐的经典传奇，到08年金融危机拯救高盛于水火。与此同时，其“价值投资”理念也逐渐成为价值投资者的信条。不仅如此，巴菲特管理的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司，也因为几十万美元一股（A类）的天价，雄踞鄙视链的顶端。\n在孩童时期，巴菲特就显现出对数字的敏感。1950年考入哥伦比亚大学商学院，拜师号称“价值投资者之父”的本杰明·格雷厄姆。在格雷厄姆门下，巴菲特如鱼得水。\n1962年，巴菲特买入第一笔伯克希尔股票。1965年年初，巴菲特获得伯克希尔的控制权。之后伯克希尔的经营性质发生了变化，不再是一家单纯的纺纱企业，而是一个投资实体。巴菲特将其作为经营平台，不断地收购其他利润丰厚的公司和股权，创造投资神话。\n1965~2018年，伯克希尔账面价值的复合年增长率为18.7%，明显超过标普500指数的9.7%。1964~2018年，伯克希尔的整体增长率是1,091,899%（即10918倍以上），而标普500指数为15,019%。这仅是账面价值的增长，伯克希尔内在价值的增长远高于其账面价值。\n\n数据来源：《WarrenBuffett's Letters to Berkshire Shareholders，2018》\n如果你在1965年买入1万美元的伯克希尔股票，经过巴菲特53年鬼斧神工的运作，它今天市场价格就已然变成大约2.47亿美元——值得一提的是这是税后的收入！\n经典案例：巴菲特是怎样做到的\n巴菲特是股权集中投资的代表，其投资案例少且精。这些“战役”的胜利硕果，依靠复利的力量，把伯克希尔推进了美国上市公司市值前十行列。\n喜诗糖果\n1972年，巴菲特以蓝筹印花公司（不久后被并入伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司）的名义花了2500万美元收购了喜诗糖果（See’s Candies）公司。\n喜诗糖果年均销量增长缓慢，而因单价的提升致使净利润暴增。\n\n在1984年3月致股东信里，巴菲特讲道：喜诗糖果比其账面价值要值钱很多。它是一个品牌企业，它的产品能够以高于生产成本的价格销售，并且在未来也会继续拥有这种定价权。\n巴菲特在回顾收购喜诗糖果时，视它为一项梦幻般出色的业务。从1972年至2007年，其为伯克希尔贡献了13.5亿美元的税前利润，只消耗了其中3200万美元用于补充公司的运营资金。在支付了企业利润税之后，剩下的资金来购买其他具有吸引力的企业。\n喜诗公司给伯克希尔带来了许多新的现金源泉，对伯克希尔来说就像《圣经》中形容的一样：“丰腴膏沃且生养众多”。\n政府雇员保险公司（GEICO）\n1976年，巴菲特买进了400万美元的政府雇员保险公司（GEICO）股票。1980年，巴菲特再次大笔买入GEICO股票，总共持有其720万股，占GEICO总股本的33%，总成本4714万美元。1980年之后的15年里，GEICO不断回购公司股票，伯克希尔的股权占比不断提高。1995年，伯克希尔股权占比已提高至50%，并花费23亿美元收购了剩余50%股份。在拥有全部股权后，GEICO不断地为伯克希尔贡献免费的保险浮存金用于投资，帮助伯克希尔的资产净值快速增长。\n巴菲特与政府雇员保险公司（GEICO）的渊源颇深。早在1950年，巴菲特还是格雷厄姆的学生时，就去拜访过GEICO，时任GEICO副总裁的大卫接待了巴菲特并花了约4小时详细地向巴菲特解释保险公司的运营模式，告诉巴菲特GEICO的核心竞争优势在于直销模式带来的低成本优势。\n若说GEICO是一座价值不菲且的众所仰望的商业城堡，那么其与同业间的成本与费用差异就是它的护城河。\n可口可乐\n1987年，可口可乐因百事可乐挑起的装瓶商之间的矛盾而陷入困境，股价较为低迷。1988年，巴菲特开始大量买入可口可乐股份，1988年年底共持有1417万股，成本5.92亿。1989年，继续增持，持股总数翻了一倍达2335万股，总成本10.24亿。1994年，巴菲特又买入了价值2.7亿美元的股票。\n\n至今，可口可乐仍是伯克希尔的重仓股，占总持仓比例的9.79%，持有4亿股，市值超过200亿美元，期间收到的分红总额约为60亿美元。\n巴菲特对可口可乐是真爱。在伯克希尔某次股东大会上，巴菲特表示，自己每天都喝可乐，从1982年开始就一直沿用这样的生活方式。“如果我每天只吃芦笋和西兰花一类的健康蔬菜可以多活一年，每天喝可乐吃巧克力能让我更开心却要折寿一年，那我愿意用一年的生命换取这样的快乐，这就是我的选择。”\n可口可乐是家卓越的公司，管理层关心股东的资本回报和有形现金收益。公司既能经营轻资产业务，同时还能获得极强的盈利能力。公司的增长既有很长的历史持续性，而且未来几十年的前景也很清晰。可口可乐被巴菲特归类为“永恒的持股”。\n散落在伯克希尔年报中的其他经典案例还有：\n1973年开始买入的华盛顿邮报，2014年股权置换，年化收益率12%；\n1986年买入的斯科特费策尔，到2000年，总共为伯克希尔贡献了10.3亿美元的分红；\n1988年开始买入的房地美，2000年全部卖出，税前总收益约为30亿美元；\n2003买入的中国石油H股，2007年7-10月全部卖出，税前投资收益约为35.5亿美元；\n等等。\n一个个鲜活的案例，不仅串成了显赫的投资业绩光耀于世，背后更蕴含着投资哲学及巴菲特投资思维的变化。\n巴菲特是一个出色的企业学习者，能够快速、精确地分辨出一个公司的复杂关键所在。他能在两分钟内否决一项投资，也能在分析的两天之内做出重大投资决策。他时刻准备着，正如他在公司年报中所说：“诺亚并不是等到下雨时才开始建造方舟。”\n他不关心短期股市的走势如何，强调确定公司内在价值和一个公平安全的价格是投资的要素。他从不投资于自己不懂的公司或能力圈之外的公司。在90年代，他曾指出，在他已有的40年职业生涯中，12项投资决策带来的结果已经使他与众不同。\n巴菲特没有过时，价值投资仍在神坛之上\n贵为在世的股神，其优异的历史业绩，一定是大家竞相学习和解构的对象。但众多的学术研究，并没有对其优异的历史业绩有非常高的共识，一些学术研究人员甚至将他的表现归功于运气。最近几年有一篇出自AQR的学术论文，叫巴菲特的超额收益（Buffet's Alpha），这篇论文得出结论，巴菲特的超额收益，来自于投资了安全、优质和廉价的股票，并且因为伯克希尔保险业务超低的资金成本，回报隐含了1.4~1.6倍的杠杆。\n但是，迄今为止，还并没有特别多的从行为金融学的角度，分析巴菲特业绩的研究。巴菲特在1987年时说过：\n\n “在我看来，成功的投资将不会来自于神秘的公式，计算机程序或市场的价格所发出的闪烁的信号。相反，投资者若将成功的商业判断与投资行动结合起来，做到知行合一，情绪不受市场波动影响，便会成功。”\n\n其实我并不是一个市场有效性假说的坚决拥护者，我相信市场不是完美的，但也不是完全不理性的。\n从我的研究经验来看，巴菲特优异的历史业绩，一方面来自于他的投资风格和资金成本（也就是定量的传统金融学的部分），另一方面，来自于他和芒格的投资行为（也就是行为金融学的部分），还有一方面，确实有着一些些运气的成分。正所谓，天时地利人和，一个都不能少。\n所以，他到底做对了什么，可以获得如此的投资成就呢？是能力过人，还是运气使然，抑或是立身行己？这次，我们从投资能力、运气和行为金融，这三个方面来聊聊。\n优异的投资能力是核心\n首先，我们借用经典的Fama-French的5因子模型，深入了解分析巴菲特的风格。五因子模型，是在著名的三因子模型之上，加入了盈利因子RMW（Robust Minus Weak）和投资因子CMA（Conservative Minus Aggressive）。同时，我们根据五因子模型的统计结果，对原模型进行了加工，去掉了贡献很小且不显著的市值因子SMB（Small Minus Big）和投资因子，引入了AQR的质量因子QMJ（Quality Minus Junk）和贝塔因子BAB（Betting Against Beta），组成了新FF五因子模型，更加精确地划分因子的贡献。具体模型的假设前提，在这里就不赘述了。\n\n以上将伯克希尔公司的超额收益归因分析进行拆分，从传统的Fama-French五因子模型，可以看出市场本身和超额收益，是最大的两个占比，其次是高价值和高盈利。其中市场本身和超额收益两者的贡献占比达到80.2%，换句话说，巴菲特能取得如此的成就，一半感谢市场长期的上涨（国运），一半得益于自身优秀（能力）。\n其中需要注意的是，归因分析出来发现小市值是负贡献的，这里不能绝对的说这个因子没有作用，也可能是时间段的选择或者指标的选择方面存在商榷。再看经过我们改良过的新FF5模型，可以发现，之前未能被解释的大部分超额收益，从6.66%，下降到了2.40%，被高质量质和低贝塔两个因子解释了相当一部分。\n巴菲特惊人的业绩，主要归功于以较低的融资成本，使用高杠杆，购买安全、高质量又便宜的股票，并长期持有。无论用什么方式研究，都可以发现巴菲特善于使用杠杆来放大收益。但是，高杠杆只能解释一部分其惊人的表现，如果仅仅盲目的高杠杆，反而会降低其收益。从融资端看，巴菲特的融资来源主要是AAA级的优质债券，和公司廉价的保费收入，以负债驱动投资，投资扩大负债的循环模式。\n总结下来：选择高质量、低贝塔、高价值的股票是巴菲特的风格，也就是巴老自己所说的：用一般的价格投资高质量的公司，优于在便宜的价格投资一般的公司。他的成功，三分之一靠天（赌时代和国家的运气），大部分靠人（个人投资能力太优秀）。\n运气永远是给有准备的人\n但是可能有的人就会问了，全世界几十亿人，也就出了一个巴菲特呀？是不是仅仅只是运气好呢？说不定全世界的好运气都集中在这一个人身上了呢？下面我们就来研究，神坛上到底是人还是神？还是在1980年至2017年这38年的时间里，首先我们对伯克希尔公司的收益率作简单的CAPM回归分析，得到结果如下：\n\n其中beta约为0.65，横截距alpha为0.0096,，并且两个参数都通过显著检验，说明我们拒绝巴菲特的超额收益为0的原假设。进一步而言，从收益率上，我们可以看出，通过简单CAPM模型得到的超额年化收益率达到了11.52%。从风险的角度，可以算得其超额收益的波动率（收益率总方差减市场收益率方差的平方根）为16.83%。\n为了更好说明巴菲特的运气成分，我们采用以下模型假设：\n\n在同一个初始时刻，有10000个完全独立的投资者，和巴菲特一起投资了1美元；\n\n\n这些投资者的收益率完全随机，其每一年的超额收益服从均值为0，方差等于16.83%的正态分布；\n\n\n这些投资者会一直坚定地持有到2017年年底，无论期间的涨跌幅。\n\n做10000次的随机拟合，得到结果如下图：\n\n上图中，蓝色的线表示巴菲特的累计收益，橙色的线表示最终累计收益率超过了巴菲特的随机拟合增长。\n从图中可以看出，10000个服从巴菲特收益分布但是随机波动的投资者（凭运气），仅仅只有14位最终获得了比巴菲特高的投资表现！而且从图上还可以看出，在整个持有期内，巴菲特的增长线几乎一直在整个随机拟合部分的顶部。\n长期保持着“超神”的表现，一直稳定在前0.2%的的范围内，这一定不是随机的运气，而是实实在在的投资实力。可能有的小伙伴还会觉得不以为然，还是有14个“天才”比巴菲特厉害的嘛，那我们取出来这14个投资者的收益率，做个简单的研究，看看我们是否会选择看上去更加“牛叉”的他们。\n\n将14个表现优于巴菲特的投资者，按照年化收益率的大小排序分为四组，取最大、75%分位、25%分位和最小的那一位投资者作为每一组代表；\n\n\n比较这四位投资者相对巴菲特的超额收益，在同时期内（1980年~2017年），比较10年滚动年化收益率。\n\n\n小伙伴们有木有发现，这些最终表现优于巴菲特（红色基准线之上）的投资者，可能根本在前期就活不下来喂！以表现最好的（蓝色）举个例子，其在2005年之前，在近25年的时间内，表现一直比巴菲特差，赶上并超过巴菲特，几乎是得益于2010年之后的爆发。\n这样的基金经理，在现实中恐怕早已被投资人所抛弃了，所以更谈不上之后的井喷式爆发。\n似乎看到这里，小伙伴们都认为神坛之上的巴菲特遥不可及。但是，这个模型在实际情况中却存在许多问题。首先，投资人之间的独立性。即便每个人都持有不一样的股票或资产，他们之间的收益率也不会是完全独立的；其次，投资的持有期，在实际生活中，38年的长期不变的投资，在不考虑个人寿命的情况下，应该只存在类似养老金的长期资金管理机构之上了。\n但是即便这个模型存在种种缺陷，但还是很好地说明了一个问题，想靠运气打败神坛上的巴菲特？难得很。\n立身行己，对能力圈清楚的认知\n价值投资，其实从行为学的角度来看，就是在赚取由于市场对坏消息过激的反应创造出来的超跌后价值回升的钱。但如何判断价值被低估的公司，是因为公司确实基本面差、丧失和市场地位，还是因为市场在不理性的认知下过度反应了呢？这些难以一句话解释清楚的问题，其实就是价值投资最具挑战性的地方。价值投资是逆向投资，逆向投资要求有逆向思维，而且要求有逆人性的投资行为。\nNicola Gennaioli，Yueran Ma，Andrei Shleifer 在《Expectation and Investments》中指出：\n\n 过往一年高的利润率，会使得投资人过度乐观；而过往一年低的利润率，会使得投资人过度悲观。\n\nJosef Lakonishok, Andrei Shleifer, Robert Vishny在《Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk》中指出：\n\n 一些投资人往往对过往表现好的股票过于乐观，导致这些“漂亮的”股票估值过高。\n\nJoseph D. Piotroski, Eric C. So在《Identifying Expectation Errors in Value/ Glamour Strategies: A Fundamental Analysis Approach》中指出：\n\n 股票的错误定价来自于投资人对于“高估值”股票的过度乐观和对“低估值”股票的过度悲观。\n\n巴菲特优异的历史业绩，抛开其过人的投资能力和低廉的资金成本，他和芒格在行为和心理上高人一等、日积月累的修行，也是成功的必要条件。\n这包括战胜人类天生的认知偏见（Cognitive Bias）和情感偏见（Emotional Bias）。巴菲特和芒格的决策方式、认知能力或情感纪律，都是巴菲特优势业绩的互补。特别是芒格这位投资和哲学大师，对于巴菲特的影响，都是巴菲特优异业绩的重要行为因素。\n芒格在2014年，定义过巴菲特成功的四个因素：1. 巴菲特的结构性的个人魅力特征，2. 伯克希尔的结构性的决策体系，3. 好的运气，4. 一些股东的、其他仰慕者的、包括新闻界中的一些人的怪异而又激烈的传染性的奉献精神。\n在我看来，不管是上述的因素，还是巴菲特擅长的投资框架，都能减少过度自信偏见（Over-Confident Bias）对投资决策的影响。过度自信偏见是指我们对判断的主观信心相对高于实际客观确定的情况，过度自信包含三个方面，即过度估计（Over Estimation），过度放置（Over Placement）和过度精确（Over Precision）。\n尽管不同类型的过度自信的后果并不相同，但它们的共同点是：会长久和持续地导致错误的财务和其他决策。\n一些研究表明，过度自信不仅是金融市场交易员的普遍弱点，关键是这些身经百战的交易员对这个弱点经常会熟视无睹，因为过度自信这个偏见，深深的根植于人类的潜意识，常被称为“所有偏见的根源”。\n从巴菲特和芒格的文字和演讲中，我们能发现他们敏锐地意识到了过度自信这个所有偏见的根源，并对其非常的小心谨慎，采取一系列的手段，避免或者尽量最小化过度自信对决策的不良影响。就像芒格所说的：\n\n “人们长期错误地评估自己的知识范围，这是人性最基本的特征之一。知道自己的能力范围，是人类要做的最困难的事情之一。知道自己不知道的东西，对生活和业务而言，比变得出色更有用。”\n\n写在最后\n38年间，巴菲特和芒格一起，获得了年化超20%的收益，累计上涨1100多倍，业绩远远优于本来表现还就不错的标普500指数。巴菲特的收益有一部分得益于市场大环境的红利，但更多的归功于个人的选股实力，其中买入高质量、低波动且高价值的股票是其投资风格。\n巴菲特所获得超额收益也不是运气成分，想靠随机打败巴菲特几乎不现实。而芒格作为巴菲特最好的搭档，其个人魅力和性格，以及其伟大的哲学体系，是巴菲特优异历史业绩的行为导师。\n然而就算是强如巴菲特和芒格的组合，其业绩在历史上，也有时不时大幅度跑输大盘的时候。如果价值投资每时每刻都能跑赢大盘，那么必然会有无数的投资人涌入，从而导致价值投资策略失效。而正是有周期性的较大的跟踪误差，放大了投资人的不理性行为，才使得市场有效性假说不成立，为坚定的价值投资者在长周期上跑赢市场带来了机会。\n然而价值投资对市场天然的高跟踪误差，也是一把双刃剑。100个价值投资者有100个相信价值投资的理由，也有100个践行价值投资却无法忍受跟踪误差而失败的惨痛经历。作为一个价值投资者，我们需要持有被华尔街无穷鄙视的股票，我们需要远离喧闹浮躁的神股评，我们需要在市场的大波动中坚定信念，我们更需要有足够大的勇气穿越价值投资的长周期。\n以此，共勉。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4755,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":true}