To The Moon

Been a while since I contributed. Before we go all bullish or bearish or pigish, or apeish, let's call these two charts to attention. First is bankruptcy filings which have already soared To GFC levels. The economy has fractured. It just takes time to be realised by the market. Typically a lag before it shows.  Next, we have the S&P500. 7 of the top stocks in this basket are responsible for a 50% push. The rest of the 493 are nearly flat for the year. The Wall Street phrase goes - when the generals lead but the soldiers don't follow, beware.  The Fed has no choice but to hike more as energy prices are just too high. The only way to bring down prices is to hike till demand is starved off. Something will fracture. If not this quarter, perhaps the next.  The yield curve i

Follow the price action. Don't be a goondu and short a rising stock like Tesla. You will end up being being steamrolled

JPY making a bullish move, if it breaches 129.5, it will target 126.45 to the USD before making a decision.

$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$back in $SOFI. Good discount, given the excellent results. 

Same argument they used in 2008 - supply and demand. Price went right up to USD150 and crashed subsequently. Why? Speculation. That's how the price in the futures contracts get bid up. Russia produces only 13% of the entire world supply. And price of oil just more than doubled from pre COVID levels and went up to USD130 before simmering a little? In any case, we shall let the price action determine where this will land. Stage 3 moving into Stage 4. If history serves right as a reminder, this is not going to look pretty.

$Occidental(OXY)$This is OXY dating back to 2012. The top trendline has been respected. It touched it briefly just on 31 May, and the dailies on the next chart showcases the classic H&S formation. See that most recent red candle slicing below the strong support at $57.12? I'd like to think that Buffett knows something we don't because the overall price action tells many of us out here he just disregarded his own axiom of buying "good companies at a fair price rather than fair companies at a good price". All we need is a gentle nudge and the waterfall begins.

People talk about the Russian war as the cause for supply issues. Russia contributes just 13% of global oil supply. Oil prices on the contract front are elevated not because of demand and supply. Look at the futures contracts. It is the main speculation that has created the bubble. Oil is at stage 3 decline, just one step away from kamikaze stage 4. I'm still not sure why Buffett is buying OXY at such a height. I'd like to think that he knows more than all that the price action is showing right now because if he is wrong, it ain't going to look pretty on Berkshire's price too.  

And so it goes, now hitting 2.9%, and NDX makes its way lower again. Just watch the inverse correlation, right up till FOMC minutes are released at 2pm US time

$WUXI APPTEC(02359)$each time the price of Wuxi goes up, the proportion of short sellers increase. Watch the 10y yield closely. The bond market is pricing in a pivot. If that happens. The shorts will lose their shorts. 

$SENSETIME-W(00020)$expect this to bounce around here until market makes another low, which will take it down further