$APP DIAGONAL 261030/261113 CALL 340.0/CALL 320.0$ Shifting short leg of pmcc lower to squeeze more premium. Earnings coming soon but should be quite abit of cushion before it hits my strike. Wont be too optimistic this earnings call because last few earnings beat counters all got beaten down anyway. If this is going to be a surprise move up, it will be a happy problem anyway.
$AVGO DIAGONAL 261113/261127 CALL 400.0/CALL 380.0$ Shifting short call lower. Underlying dropped substantially and short call positon realised quite a bit of profit. Instead of waiting for the rest of the theta decay, im shifting it closer to underlying for better premium collection. Cant do much, can only wait.
$KKR 20261120 100.0 CALL$ Selling call as the short leg of pmcc. Been a frustrating month as we see most counters falling together with the AI trade. Cant be helped so just have some patience and collect premium while waiting. Earnings call soon but I doubt it will shoot past 100.
Junk Bond Yields Rose 1.39 Points In Six Months. The Weakest Ones Rose 5.02.
The average high-yield bond now yields 8.14%. Six months ago it was 6.75%. The weakest slice, rated CCC and below, went from 12.97% to 17.99%. Same market, same six months. The average moved 1.39 points. The bottom moved 5.02. WHY THE AVERAGE LOOKS CALM An index is an average. An average can sit still while one part of it falls apart, because the healthy parts pull the number back toward the middle. That is true of a bond index, a sector fund, and your own options book. If you only read the headline number, you find out about the tail last. Here is how to split an average and see where the move really came from. THE THREE CHECKS Check one: write down the move in the headline number between two dates. Pick the dates before you look, so you don't choose the window that tells the best story.
A 70% Win Rate Still Hands You 4 Losses In A Row, 43% Of The Time Over 100 Trades
4 losses in a row with a 70% win rate. Your system didn't break. You just met math. Over 100 trades, there is a 43% chance of at least one streak like that. Why a streak feels like a signal Four losses in a row feels like a pattern. It feels like something changed. So the instinct is to fix a rule, tighten a filter, or skip the next setup. That instinct has a cost. If you change the rules in the middle of a sample, you delete the evidence you were collecting. Here is how to check whether the streak means anything before you touch a thing. The three checks Check one: find your real win rate over a decent sample. Count wins and trades from your journal. Use the whole record, not the last month. In the example below the win rate is 70%. Check two: ask how often a streak this long happens by c