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- xiiaodongxiiaodong
  ·2021-06-20
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  How much is Nayuki's tea, the first new-style tea beverage stock, worth?
  奈雪的茶发布公告称，公司于2021年6月18日至6月23日期间招股，拟全球发售2.57亿股，其中香港公开发售占10%，国际发售占90%，另附15%超额配股权。入场费9999.8港元。本次发售价为每股1
  How much is Nayuki's tea, the first new-style tea beverage stock, worth?
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10:35","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"How much is Nayuki's tea, the first new-style tea beverage stock, worth?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144706272","media":"格隆汇","summary":"奈雪的茶发布公告称，公司于2021年6月18日至6月23日期间招股，拟全球发售2.57亿股，其中香港公开发售占10%，国际发售占90%，另附15%超额配股权。入场费9999.8港元。本次发售价为每股1","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02150\">Nayuki's Tea</a>The company announced that it will conduct an IPO from June 18 to June 23, 2021, with a planned global offering of 257 million shares, of which 10% will be offered in Hong Kong and 90% will be offered internationally, with an additional 15% over-allotment option. The entrance fee is HK$9999.8. The offering price is HK$17.2 to HK$19.8 per share, and Nayuki Tea expects to receive net proceeds of HK$4.842 billion from the global offering.</p><p>As the first listed company in the new-style tea beverage industry, the capital market's enthusiasm for Nayuki is predictable. However, despite the hype, we can still roughly estimate how much Nayuki's tea should be worth, which is a good anchor amidst market fluctuations.</p><p>There are three main factors affecting a company's valuation: growth potential, industry landscape, and the company's competitiveness. The former relates to how quickly and how big the company can grow; the faster it grows, the higher its valuation will naturally be. The latter two relates to sustainability. Let's discuss Nayuki from these three points.</p><p>Let's talk about growth potential first. Growth potential can be divided into two points: industry growth potential and the company's own growth potential. The former will contribute to the latter.</p><p>Nayuki operates in the field of freshly made tea beverages, which can be divided into high-end (average price above 20 yuan), mid-range (average price 10-20 yuan), and low-end (average price below 10 yuan) according to price range. Nayuki is in the high-end price range.</p><p>In the Chinese tea beverage market, freshly made tea beverages have seen the fastest growth over the past five years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2203f56643659e4dc9b78c44ffb7ac4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Among freshly made tea beverages, high-end freshly made tea beverages are experiencing the best growth. From 2015 to 2020, the compound annual growth rate reached 75.8%, and the industry size reached 12.9 billion RMB. This growth aligns with our understanding, as we have witnessed Nayuki's popularity in recent years. According to a report by Zhuochi Consulting, high-end tea beverages will continue to grow rapidly from 2020 to 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 32.2%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e476f153c978a28e57f09dc34393753\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In this sense, Nayuki has embarked on a high-growth track. What about Nayuki's own growth potential?</p><p>Nayuki opened its first store in Shenzhen in 2015. By the end of 2020, Nayuki had 491 tea stores and 562 as of the last executable date of its prospectus. Nayuki had 155 and 327 tea stores at the end of 2018 and 2019, respectively.</p><p>Investing in a store serves as both a demand and traffic point and a production capacity point. Therefore, thanks to the expansion of its store network, Nayuki's revenue soared. From 2018 to 2020, the revenue of all Nayuki tea stores was 909 million, 2.291 billion and 2.871 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 152% and 25% in 2019 and 2020, respectively.</p><p>Nayuki's future growth potential mainly depends on the continued expansion of its stores. So where might the ceiling for the number of stores be?</p><p>One we can see<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">Starbucks</a>Starbucks has 5,000 stores in China. Nayuki's tea product positioning is somewhat similar to Starbucks, so we can say that Nayuki's tea has potential in 5,000 stores.</p><p>Currently, Nayuki has entered more than 70[1] cities, with Shenzhen having the most stores at 91. The other three first-tier cities, Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, have 22, 33 and 24 stores respectively. These cities are similar in size to Shenzhen, and consumers have a strong demand for high-end freshly made tea drinks. In Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, Nayuki's tea penetration rate is even lower in other cities, and it is still blank in many cities (Starbucks has entered 230 cities in China, including 4 municipalities and 293 prefecture-level cities). From this perspective, Nayuki's tea store opening space can reach 5,000 stores, or even higher.</p><p>From another perspective, Nayuki generally prefers to open in bustling business districts. There are 476 such business districts in first-tier cities, 1,431 in second-tier cities, and 2,020 in third-tier cities and below in China, for a total of 3,927. From this perspective, Nayuki's tea store space can be in the thousands.</p><p>Therefore, in terms of growth potential, Nayuki is quite good.</p><p>However, growth potential is just a hypothetical scenario; reality is not a vacuum environment, and Nayuki's tea brand operates alone. Let's turn our attention to the industry landscape and Nayuki's competitiveness.</p><p>In terms of industry structure, the high-end freshly made tea beverage market currently has a relatively high concentration. According to data from Frost & Sullivan, CR5, a high-end freshly made tea beverage brand, has a market share of 55%, of which Nayuki's market share is 18.9%, significantly higher than other competitors.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad8c30f2650848765e8547636aebd90d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">After several years of development, this industry now has a very obvious market share advantage for leading brands.</p><p>What are the competitive barriers to entry for high-end tea beverages?</p><p>In my personal opinion, it can be divided into three points: supply chain management, standardized output, and brand power.</p><p>Let's start with supply chain management. High-end freshly made tea drinks use raw materials including premium tea leaves, fresh milk, and fresh seasonal fruits. High-quality tea and fresh milk are alright, as they are already relatively industrialized in production, and storage and transportation are relatively convenient. However, the supply chain for fresh fruit is much more complex. How to ensure product quality and how to guarantee storage to reduce losses are both troublesome. Taking Nayuki as an example, material costs account for about 34% of the revenue of freshly made tea beverages, of which 76% are raw materials and the rest are packaging materials.</p><p>This shows that fluctuations in raw material costs have a significant impact on profits. In terms of product form, high-end freshly made tea drinks do not have many entry barriers, but the difficulty lies in supply chain management.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe74e2114383895b2b909fa93985900\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Nayuki's ability to achieve this market share must be due to its superior supply chain management compared to its peers.</p><p>Supply chain management will also affect the second competitive advantage: standardized output. However, besides the supply chain, there are other challenges in the standardized export of high-end tea beverages.</p><p>The coffee making process is simple and can be completed by one person. High-end tea drinks are relatively complex. Although the production process has a clear division of labor, it requires multiple people to participate, and the processing of fresh fruit is relatively complex. Nayuki also offers on-site baking, but the process is complex, so the stores are staffed with a large number of people.</p><p>Nayuki's standard stores have an average staffing of 21 people. Since October 2020, it has been promoting PRO stores, which exclude freshly baked goods, with an average staffing of about 13 people.</p><p>With a large number of people and complex processes, training and management are more difficult, which increases the difficulty of standardized output, but also constitutes a competitive barrier.</p><p>This is also one of the reasons why high-end freshly made tea beverages in China are basically directly operated. The supply chain is complex, the processes are complicated, and franchising is open, driven by huge profits, making it easy to act recklessly.</p><p>The third point is brand power. I personally think this is important, but not that important. In today's society, brand power is certainly important, but building an internet celebrity brand doesn't seem too difficult. Brand power can be icing on the cake, but the core is that the first two internal strengths must be strong.</p><p>Nayuki has now become an industry leader, and these three competitive advantages should be satisfactory.</p><p>One thing investors might be concerned about is Nayuki's operating costs. Let's break down the costs. A significant characteristic of Nayuki, compared to early Starbucks and current Hong Kong-listed catering companies, is high rental costs. Nayuki's rental costs were 15 percent, while Starbucks' early rental costs were just over 4 percent. In Hong Kong stocks...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06862\">Haidilao</a>More than 8 points<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09922\">Jiu Mao Jiu</a>Around 10 points.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa3e1932cef8f2b1d56c37f72ac2576c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This is mainly related to Nayuki opening a large store in a bustling business district. However, the company's profitability at the store level is quite good, with an operating profit margin of 16.3% in 2019 and 12.2% in 2020 due to the impact of the pandemic.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b8c1faadb01599e49de8f9363252ec8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As long as the store level is profitable, more headquarters expenses can be amortized as the scale expands, thereby improving profitability. In addition, Nayuki's operating costs will continue to decline in the future, partly due to the advantages of its expanding supply chain and partly due to its enhanced brand power in negotiating rents. In addition, expanding into lower-tier cities will also reduce rental costs, as rental costs in lower-tier cities are relatively lower.</p><p>So how should Nayuki be valued?</p><p>The above analysis shows that Nayuki's business model and growth potential are similar to those of Starbucks in its early days, and Tai Er, a subsidiary of Jiu Mao Jiu, a Hong Kong-listed company. Let's compare the early valuations of Starbucks with the current valuations of Hong Kong restaurant stocks.</p><p>Starbucks went public in June 1992, with an initial market capitalization of approximately $14 million, a dynamic PE ratio of approximately 53, and a price-to-sales ratio of 2.2. At that time, there were 165 stores. Due to their very good growth potential, the valuation remained around 80 times in 1992 and 1993, reaching as high as 100 times, and the price-to-sales ratio was about 4 to 6 times.</p><p>Hong Kong's Haidilao and Jiu Mao Jiu have current market capitalizations that correspond to hundreds of times their 2020 net profit valuations, respectively. Of course, this is related to the significant damage to the profits of catering companies in 2020. According to securities firms' forecasts for profits in 2021, they are 35 times and 70 times, respectively. If we look at the net profit in 2019, it was 73 times and 216 times respectively. Looking at the price-to-sales ratio, it corresponds to 6 times and 13 times in 2020, respectively, while the consensus expectations of securities firms for 2021 are 3.13 times and 6.8 times, respectively.</p><p>Compared to Starbucks back then, Hong Kong's valuations of Haidilao and Jiu Mao Jiu are quite exaggerated.</p><p>Nayuki is still in a period of rapid growth, and we use Photoshop for valuation. Based on the standards used when Starbucks went public, Nayuki's total revenue in 2020 was 3 billion yuan, which would be between 12 billion and 18 billion yuan at a PS of 4 to 6 times.</p><p>Of course, as we've already mentioned, Starbucks' valuation in 1992 was clearly very conservative. Compared to the huge increases that followed, the investors they acquired with this valuation were truly fortunate. Haidilao already has a large number of stores and is in a period of rapid growth. Using Jiu Mao Jiu would be more appropriate. Nayuki's logic is close to Tai Er.</p><p>Since 2021 is almost halfway over, it might be more appropriate to use the 2021 revenue forecast. Jiu Mao Jiu is 6.8 times. Nayuki's projected revenue in 2021 is 5.5-5.8 billion yuan. If we assign a PS of 6-7 times, it would be between 44-46 billion Hong Kong dollars.</p><p>Based on the IPO price, Nayuki is currently valued at HK$29.5-34 billion, which means there is still a lot of room for growth.</p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How much is Nayuki's tea, the first new-style tea beverage stock, worth?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow much is Nayuki's tea, the first new-style tea beverage stock, worth?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-21 10:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02150\">Nayuki's Tea</a>The company announced that it will conduct an IPO from June 18 to June 23, 2021, with a planned global offering of 257 million shares, of which 10% will be offered in Hong Kong and 90% will be offered internationally, with an additional 15% over-allotment option. The entrance fee is HK$9999.8. The offering price is HK$17.2 to HK$19.8 per share, and Nayuki Tea expects to receive net proceeds of HK$4.842 billion from the global offering.</p><p>As the first listed company in the new-style tea beverage industry, the capital market's enthusiasm for Nayuki is predictable. However, despite the hype, we can still roughly estimate how much Nayuki's tea should be worth, which is a good anchor amidst market fluctuations.</p><p>There are three main factors affecting a company's valuation: growth potential, industry landscape, and the company's competitiveness. The former relates to how quickly and how big the company can grow; the faster it grows, the higher its valuation will naturally be. The latter two relates to sustainability. Let's discuss Nayuki from these three points.</p><p>Let's talk about growth potential first. Growth potential can be divided into two points: industry growth potential and the company's own growth potential. The former will contribute to the latter.</p><p>Nayuki operates in the field of freshly made tea beverages, which can be divided into high-end (average price above 20 yuan), mid-range (average price 10-20 yuan), and low-end (average price below 10 yuan) according to price range. Nayuki is in the high-end price range.</p><p>In the Chinese tea beverage market, freshly made tea beverages have seen the fastest growth over the past five years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2203f56643659e4dc9b78c44ffb7ac4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Among freshly made tea beverages, high-end freshly made tea beverages are experiencing the best growth. From 2015 to 2020, the compound annual growth rate reached 75.8%, and the industry size reached 12.9 billion RMB. This growth aligns with our understanding, as we have witnessed Nayuki's popularity in recent years. According to a report by Zhuochi Consulting, high-end tea beverages will continue to grow rapidly from 2020 to 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 32.2%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e476f153c978a28e57f09dc34393753\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In this sense, Nayuki has embarked on a high-growth track. What about Nayuki's own growth potential?</p><p>Nayuki opened its first store in Shenzhen in 2015. By the end of 2020, Nayuki had 491 tea stores and 562 as of the last executable date of its prospectus. Nayuki had 155 and 327 tea stores at the end of 2018 and 2019, respectively.</p><p>Investing in a store serves as both a demand and traffic point and a production capacity point. Therefore, thanks to the expansion of its store network, Nayuki's revenue soared. From 2018 to 2020, the revenue of all Nayuki tea stores was 909 million, 2.291 billion and 2.871 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 152% and 25% in 2019 and 2020, respectively.</p><p>Nayuki's future growth potential mainly depends on the continued expansion of its stores. So where might the ceiling for the number of stores be?</p><p>One we can see<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">Starbucks</a>Starbucks has 5,000 stores in China. Nayuki's tea product positioning is somewhat similar to Starbucks, so we can say that Nayuki's tea has potential in 5,000 stores.</p><p>Currently, Nayuki has entered more than 70[1] cities, with Shenzhen having the most stores at 91. The other three first-tier cities, Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, have 22, 33 and 24 stores respectively. These cities are similar in size to Shenzhen, and consumers have a strong demand for high-end freshly made tea drinks. In Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, Nayuki's tea penetration rate is even lower in other cities, and it is still blank in many cities (Starbucks has entered 230 cities in China, including 4 municipalities and 293 prefecture-level cities). From this perspective, Nayuki's tea store opening space can reach 5,000 stores, or even higher.</p><p>From another perspective, Nayuki generally prefers to open in bustling business districts. There are 476 such business districts in first-tier cities, 1,431 in second-tier cities, and 2,020 in third-tier cities and below in China, for a total of 3,927. From this perspective, Nayuki's tea store space can be in the thousands.</p><p>Therefore, in terms of growth potential, Nayuki is quite good.</p><p>However, growth potential is just a hypothetical scenario; reality is not a vacuum environment, and Nayuki's tea brand operates alone. Let's turn our attention to the industry landscape and Nayuki's competitiveness.</p><p>In terms of industry structure, the high-end freshly made tea beverage market currently has a relatively high concentration. According to data from Frost & Sullivan, CR5, a high-end freshly made tea beverage brand, has a market share of 55%, of which Nayuki's market share is 18.9%, significantly higher than other competitors.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad8c30f2650848765e8547636aebd90d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">After several years of development, this industry now has a very obvious market share advantage for leading brands.</p><p>What are the competitive barriers to entry for high-end tea beverages?</p><p>In my personal opinion, it can be divided into three points: supply chain management, standardized output, and brand power.</p><p>Let's start with supply chain management. High-end freshly made tea drinks use raw materials including premium tea leaves, fresh milk, and fresh seasonal fruits. High-quality tea and fresh milk are alright, as they are already relatively industrialized in production, and storage and transportation are relatively convenient. However, the supply chain for fresh fruit is much more complex. How to ensure product quality and how to guarantee storage to reduce losses are both troublesome. Taking Nayuki as an example, material costs account for about 34% of the revenue of freshly made tea beverages, of which 76% are raw materials and the rest are packaging materials.</p><p>This shows that fluctuations in raw material costs have a significant impact on profits. In terms of product form, high-end freshly made tea drinks do not have many entry barriers, but the difficulty lies in supply chain management.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe74e2114383895b2b909fa93985900\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Nayuki's ability to achieve this market share must be due to its superior supply chain management compared to its peers.</p><p>Supply chain management will also affect the second competitive advantage: standardized output. However, besides the supply chain, there are other challenges in the standardized export of high-end tea beverages.</p><p>The coffee making process is simple and can be completed by one person. High-end tea drinks are relatively complex. Although the production process has a clear division of labor, it requires multiple people to participate, and the processing of fresh fruit is relatively complex. Nayuki also offers on-site baking, but the process is complex, so the stores are staffed with a large number of people.</p><p>Nayuki's standard stores have an average staffing of 21 people. Since October 2020, it has been promoting PRO stores, which exclude freshly baked goods, with an average staffing of about 13 people.</p><p>With a large number of people and complex processes, training and management are more difficult, which increases the difficulty of standardized output, but also constitutes a competitive barrier.</p><p>This is also one of the reasons why high-end freshly made tea beverages in China are basically directly operated. The supply chain is complex, the processes are complicated, and franchising is open, driven by huge profits, making it easy to act recklessly.</p><p>The third point is brand power. I personally think this is important, but not that important. In today's society, brand power is certainly important, but building an internet celebrity brand doesn't seem too difficult. Brand power can be icing on the cake, but the core is that the first two internal strengths must be strong.</p><p>Nayuki has now become an industry leader, and these three competitive advantages should be satisfactory.</p><p>One thing investors might be concerned about is Nayuki's operating costs. Let's break down the costs. A significant characteristic of Nayuki, compared to early Starbucks and current Hong Kong-listed catering companies, is high rental costs. Nayuki's rental costs were 15 percent, while Starbucks' early rental costs were just over 4 percent. In Hong Kong stocks...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06862\">Haidilao</a>More than 8 points<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09922\">Jiu Mao Jiu</a>Around 10 points.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa3e1932cef8f2b1d56c37f72ac2576c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This is mainly related to Nayuki opening a large store in a bustling business district. However, the company's profitability at the store level is quite good, with an operating profit margin of 16.3% in 2019 and 12.2% in 2020 due to the impact of the pandemic.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b8c1faadb01599e49de8f9363252ec8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As long as the store level is profitable, more headquarters expenses can be amortized as the scale expands, thereby improving profitability. In addition, Nayuki's operating costs will continue to decline in the future, partly due to the advantages of its expanding supply chain and partly due to its enhanced brand power in negotiating rents. In addition, expanding into lower-tier cities will also reduce rental costs, as rental costs in lower-tier cities are relatively lower.</p><p>So how should Nayuki be valued?</p><p>The above analysis shows that Nayuki's business model and growth potential are similar to those of Starbucks in its early days, and Tai Er, a subsidiary of Jiu Mao Jiu, a Hong Kong-listed company. Let's compare the early valuations of Starbucks with the current valuations of Hong Kong restaurant stocks.</p><p>Starbucks went public in June 1992, with an initial market capitalization of approximately $14 million, a dynamic PE ratio of approximately 53, and a price-to-sales ratio of 2.2. At that time, there were 165 stores. Due to their very good growth potential, the valuation remained around 80 times in 1992 and 1993, reaching as high as 100 times, and the price-to-sales ratio was about 4 to 6 times.</p><p>Hong Kong's Haidilao and Jiu Mao Jiu have current market capitalizations that correspond to hundreds of times their 2020 net profit valuations, respectively. Of course, this is related to the significant damage to the profits of catering companies in 2020. According to securities firms' forecasts for profits in 2021, they are 35 times and 70 times, respectively. If we look at the net profit in 2019, it was 73 times and 216 times respectively. Looking at the price-to-sales ratio, it corresponds to 6 times and 13 times in 2020, respectively, while the consensus expectations of securities firms for 2021 are 3.13 times and 6.8 times, respectively.</p><p>Compared to Starbucks back then, Hong Kong's valuations of Haidilao and Jiu Mao Jiu are quite exaggerated.</p><p>Nayuki is still in a period of rapid growth, and we use Photoshop for valuation. Based on the standards used when Starbucks went public, Nayuki's total revenue in 2020 was 3 billion yuan, which would be between 12 billion and 18 billion yuan at a PS of 4 to 6 times.</p><p>Of course, as we've already mentioned, Starbucks' valuation in 1992 was clearly very conservative. Compared to the huge increases that followed, the investors they acquired with this valuation were truly fortunate. Haidilao already has a large number of stores and is in a period of rapid growth. Using Jiu Mao Jiu would be more appropriate. Nayuki's logic is close to Tai Er.</p><p>Since 2021 is almost halfway over, it might be more appropriate to use the 2021 revenue forecast. Jiu Mao Jiu is 6.8 times. Nayuki's projected revenue in 2021 is 5.5-5.8 billion yuan. If we assign a PS of 6-7 times, it would be between 44-46 billion Hong Kong dollars.</p><p>Based on the IPO price, Nayuki is currently valued at HK$29.5-34 billion, which means there is still a lot of room for growth.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/OvCmuObBOPdLw6h6liTN2Q\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f17df5f6c218834b209936ec178db28","relate_stocks":{"02150":"奈雪的茶"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/OvCmuObBOPdLw6h6liTN2Q","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2144706272","content_text":"奈雪的茶发布公告称，公司于2021年6月18日至6月23日期间招股，拟全球发售2.57亿股，其中香港公开发售占10%，国际发售占90%，另附15%超额配股权。入场费9999.8港元。本次发售价为每股17.2港元-19.8港元，奈雪的茶预计将取得的全球发售所得款项净额为48.42亿港元。\n作为新式茶饮第一股，资本市场对奈雪的追捧可以预见，不过发热之余，我们还是大概估下奈雪的茶应该值多少钱，也好在市场的波动中有个锚。\n影响公司估值的主要有三个方面的因素，一个是成长性，一个是行业格局，一个是公司的竞争力。前者关乎公司能以多快的速度变多大，越快成长自然给的估值越高，后面两个关乎可持续性。我们分这三点来讨论奈雪。\n先说成长性，成长性又可以分两点，一点是行业成长性，一点是公司自身的成长性，前者会为后者助力。\n奈雪所在的领域为现制茶饮，按价格带可以划分为高端(平均价格20以上)，中端(平均价格10-20)，低端(平均价格10元以下)，奈雪处在高端价格带。\n在中国茶饮市场，从过去5年的情况看，增长速度最快的是现制茶饮。而在现制茶饮里，增长最好的又是高端现制茶饮。2015年-2020年的年复合增长速度高达75.8%，行业规模达到了129亿人民币。这个成长符合我们的认知，因为这几年我们见证了奈雪的火爆。根据灼炽咨询的报告，2020年-2025年高端茶饮将继续延续高成长，年复合增速达32.2%。这样来讲，奈雪是踏在了一条高成长的赛道上。那奈雪自身的成长性呢？\n2015年奈雪在深圳开了第一间门店，到2020年底，奈雪的茶门店数量达491间，截至到招股书最后可执行日期达562间。2018年和2019年底的奈雪的茶门店数目则分别是155间和327间。\n一个店投下去，既是需求流量点，也是产能点。所以凭借门店网络的扩张，奈雪的营收扶摇直上，2018年-2020年所有奈雪的茶门店营收分别是9.09亿，22.91亿，28.71亿，2019年和2020年的同比增速分别是152%和25%。\n奈雪的茶未来成长性主要取决于门店的持续扩张，那门店数量的天花板可能在哪？\n一种我们可以看星巴克，星巴克在中国有5000家门店。奈雪的茶产品定位与星巴克有些类似，这样我们也可以说奈雪的茶潜在空间可以在5000家。\n从当前看，奈雪的茶一共入驻了70多[1] 个城市，其中深圳门店最多，91家，另外三家一线城市北京、上海、广州分别有22家、33家和24家。这些城市规模与深圳相似，消费者有对高端现制茶饮的强劲需求。在北上广如此，奈雪的茶在其他城市的渗透率就更低，在许多城市还是空白(星巴克入驻了中国230个城市，中国有4个直辖市，293个地级市)。从这个角度看，奈雪的茶开店空间是可以在5000家，甚至更高。\n从另一个角度看，奈雪一般喜欢开在繁华的商圈，这样的商圈，国内一线城市有476个，二线1431个，三线及以下2020个，共计3927个。从这个角度看，奈雪的茶门店空间是可以在在数千家。\n所以就成长性看，奈雪是不错的。\n但成长性只是一种设想，现实并非是真空环境，由奈雪的茶一家独来。我们转向看行业格局以及奈雪的竞争力。\n行业格局上，目前高端现制茶饮市场集中度相对较高。根据灼识咨询数据，高端现制茶饮品牌CR5市占率高达55%，其中奈雪的市占率为18.9%，显著高于其它竞品。这个行业经过几年的发展，现在头部品牌的市场份额优势非常明显。\n那高端茶饮的竞争壁垒在哪？\n个人来看，可以分三点，一是供应链管理，二是标准化输出，三是品牌力。\n先讲供应链管理。高端现制茶饮，用的原材料包括上乘茶叶、鲜奶、新鲜时令水果等。像上乘茶叶、鲜奶还好，已经比较工业化生产了，同时储存和运输相对方便，但新鲜水果上，供应链就要复杂得多。怎么保证产品质量，怎么保证储存减少损耗，都是麻烦。以奈雪为例，材料成本占现制茶饮营收比例为34%左右，其中76%是原材料，剩下是包装材料。\n这可以看到，原材料成本的波动对利润端的影响很显著。高端现制茶饮就产品形态来说，并没有多少进入门槛，但难在供应链管控上。奈雪能走到这个份额地步，在供应链上的管控应该是领先于同行的。\n供应链的管控也会影响到第二个竞争力，标准化输出。但除了供应链外，高端茶饮的标准化输出还有其它难点。\n咖啡的制作流程简单，单人操作就可以完成了。而高端茶饮相对要复杂，尽管制作流程分工明确，但需要多人参与，并且新鲜水果处理相对要复杂。奈雪还有现场烘焙，流程也复杂，所以门店配置的人员多。\n奈雪的标准门店平均人员配置是21人，2020年10月开始主推去掉现制烘焙的PRO店，平均人员配置大概13人。\n人多，流程复杂，培训和管理难度就大，这就增加了标准化输出的难度，但同时也构成了竞争壁垒。\n这也是国内高端现制茶饮基本走直营的原因之一。供应链复杂，流程复杂，放开加盟，巨大的利益驱使，容易乱来。\n第三点就是品牌力，其实我个人觉得这点重要，但也不是那么重要。现在这个社会，品牌力当然重要，但打造一个网红品牌似乎也不是太难。品牌力可以锦上添花，但核心还是前面两个内力要硬。\n奈雪现在做到了行业龙头，这三点竞争力应该是过关的。\n有一点投资者可能比较担心，就是奈雪的运营成本。把成本拆解一下，奈雪跟早期星巴克，跟现在港股的餐饮企业，一个显著的特点是租金成本高。奈雪的租金成本15个点，星巴克早期4个多点，港股里的海底捞8个多点，九毛九10个点左右。这主要跟奈雪开大店，开在繁华商圈有关。不过，公司门店层面的盈利能力是还不错的，经营利润率2019年有16.3%，2020年受疫情影响也有12.2%。只要门店层面是盈利的，随着规模扩大，可以摊销更多的总部费用，从而提高盈利能力。另外，奈雪未来的运营成本也会继续下降，这一是来源于规模扩大的供应链优势，二是品牌力提升的租金议价能力。另外，向低线城市扩张也会降低租金成本，因为更低线城市的租金成本相对来说要低些。\n那奈雪到底该怎么给估值呢？\n从上面的分析可以知道，奈雪的商业模式和成长性接近早期的星巴克，当前港股九毛九旗下的太二。我们比较下早期的星巴克和当前香港的餐饮股估值。\n星巴克1992年6月上市，上市之初市值大概0.14亿美元，动态PE大概53倍，市销率2.2倍。当年门店数量165家，由于非常好的成长性，1992年和1993年估值基本维持在80倍上下，最高到过100倍，市销率大概在4倍到6倍之间。\n香港的海底捞和九毛九，当前的市值对应2020年的净利润估值分别是数百倍，当然这跟2020年餐饮企业利润端破坏比较大有关，按券商对2021年的预计利润看，分别是35倍和70倍。如果以2019年的净利润看，分别是73倍和216倍。看市销率的话，对应2020年，分别是6倍和13倍，对就券商的2021年一致预期，分别是3.13倍和6.8倍。\n相比当年的星巴克，香港给海底捞和九毛九的估值是比较夸张的。\n奈雪现在仍处于高速成长期，我们用PS进行估值。如果按星巴克当年上市的标准来估，2020年奈雪的总营收是30亿，按4倍-6倍的PS，大概是120亿-180亿之间。\n当然，我们说过了，1992年星巴克的估值明显给的非常保守，相比后面的巨大涨幅，用这个估值拿到的投资人真是太幸福。海底捞的门店数量已经很多，也这了快速成长期，用九毛九会更合适，奈雪接近太二的逻辑。\n因为现在2021年已经要过去一半，用2021年的预测营收估可能更合适。九毛九是6.8倍，奈雪2021年的预计营收是55-58亿，给6倍-7倍PS的话，大概是440亿-460亿港币之间。\n按招股价算，奈雪现在是295-340亿港币，还是有很大空间的。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"02150":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2938,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":true}