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- tay931888tay931888
  ·2022-03-04
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- tay931888tay931888
  ·2022-03-01
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- tay931888tay931888
  ·2022-02-28
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  ·2022-02-26
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  ·2022-02-24
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- tay931888tay931888
  ·2022-02-24
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  It concerns the global economy! Four impacts of the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict
  摘要：俄乌冲突加剧了全球经济前景的不确定性，也加大了美股下跌压力，从而会制约美联储加息步伐。事件：当地时间2月21日，俄罗斯总统普京签署承认乌东两地顿涅茨克和卢甘斯克的人民共和国总统令，并签署俄罗斯与
  It concerns the global economy! Four impacts of the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict
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- tay931888tay931888
  ·2022-02-23
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- tay931888tay931888
  ·2022-02-22
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- tay931888tay931888
  ·2022-02-21
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  Learn from history! How will US stocks perform during a tightening cycle?
  近期，激进加息预期激增，华尔街分析师都在思考一个问题：本次紧缩周期中美股会作何反应？美国银行在最新报告中指出，绝大多数乐观派认为，在过去的七个加息周期中，标普500指数一直是正回报。但这几乎只出现在经
  Learn from history! How will US stocks perform during a tightening cycle?
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- tay931888tay931888
  ·2022-02-21
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Ok","listText":"&nbsp; Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9030324389","repostId":"2213496312","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2213496312","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1645586061,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2213496312?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-23 11:14","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"It concerns the global economy! Four impacts of the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2213496312","media":"熊园观察","summary":"摘要：俄乌冲突加剧了全球经济前景的不确定性，也加大了美股下跌压力，从而会制约美联储加息步伐。事件：当地时间2月21日，俄罗斯总统普京签署承认乌东两地顿涅茨克和卢甘斯克的人民共和国总统令，并签署俄罗斯与","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: The Russia-Ukraine conflict has exacerbated uncertainty about the global economic outlook and increased downward pressure on US stocks, thereby constraining the Federal Reserve's rate hike pace. Event: On February 21 local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a presidential decree recognizing the People's Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine and signed a treaty of friendship, cooperation and mutual assistance between Russia and the two countries. Global stock markets plummeted, while crude oil and gold prices surged.</p><p>Key conclusions:</p><p>1. The Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to escalate, greatly increasing the likelihood of it escalating into war.</p><p>2. Learning from history, the performance patterns of major asset classes after geopolitical conflicts: In the short term, it will be negative for risky assets and beneficial for safe-haven assets and energy products. The impact is often concentrated in the 10-30 days after the outbreak of the conflict, and the impact on the medium- to long-term trend of asset prices is weak.</p><p>3. If the current Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to escalate, there are four possible impacts:</p><p>Regarding the global economy: Russia is likely to face a new round of sanctions; Given that Russia is a major global exporter of energy and raw materials, it is necessary to be wary of the derivative risks that sanctions against Russia could lead to rising commodity prices. Regarding asset prices: Based on the aforementioned experience, if we only consider this conflict, global stock markets will still face downward pressure in the next month, Treasury Bond yields will decline, and crude oil and gold are expected to rise further. However, after a month, asset price trends will return to being dominated by fundamentals. Prices of commodities such as steel, corn, wheat, barley, and fertilizers may rise further in the short term due to supply disruptions. Regarding global inflation: Pushing up oil prices to high levels in the short term will increase global inflationary pressures, including: 1) US inflation remains high in the short term, and the turning point of the decline will be delayed; 2) For China, according to calculations, if oil prices rise by 10%, it will drive up CPI and PPI by 0.09% and 0.4% respectively. It is expected that CPI will remain low at the beginning and high at the end of the year, and rising oil prices will not be able to change the downward trend of PPI. 3) Given that rising oil prices have a significantly greater impact on PPI than on CPI, this will disrupt the pace of convergence of the PPI-CPI scissors gap in my country, and will also disrupt the pace of upstream and downstream transmission of corporate profits. Regarding the Fed's rate hike pace: The Russia-Ukraine conflict will exacerbate uncertainty in the global economic outlook and increase downward pressure on US stocks, thereby constraining the Fed's rate hike pace. In fact, since mid-February, the Federal Reserve's rate hike expectations have begun to cool. We maintain our previous assessment: the Federal Reserve will be hawkish first and then dovish in 2022, with 3-4 rate hike expected throughout the year. The text is as follows:</p><p>1. The Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to escalate, greatly increasing the likelihood of it escalating into war. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has a long history, with the core differences being \"NATO's eastward expansion\" and \"Ukraine's accession to NATO.\" In mid-January 2022, Russia held talks with the United States, NATO, and the OSCE on the situation in Ukraine, but without achieving significant results. After a month of negotiations, the conflict between the two sides escalated again: on the 21st, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a presidential decree recognizing the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic, and signed a treaty of friendship, cooperation and mutual assistance between Russia and the two. At the same time, he ordered \"peacekeeping forces\" to enter the region, greatly increasing the possibility of the conflict between the two sides escalating into war. In response, the United States announced financial sanctions against Russia and warned that it was prepared to impose more sanctions if necessary.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6af52f7a91e964f09f82387d80558d85\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"707\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a906fdd0c25182405d6b9ff629db6791\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>2. Learning from history, the impact of geopolitical conflicts on assets: Short-term negative impact on risky assets, positive impact on safe-haven assets and resource commodities, but weak medium- to long-term impact.</p><p>For better comparison, we selected five large-scale geopolitical conflicts involving major powers since 2000 as our analysis objects, including the Afghanistan War in 2001, the Iraq War in 2003, the Libyan War and the Syrian War in 2011, and the Crimean referendum in 2014. The performance of various asset prices during the outbreak of these conflicts is as follows:</p><p>Stock market: US stocks generally fell in the short term, with the decline lasting generally 10-30 days, before resuming their upward trend. A-shares have mostly risen in the short term, but there is no consistent pattern in their medium- to long-term trends. The divergence between A-shares and US stocks is partly due to the fact that none of the recent rounds of geopolitical conflicts involved China, and partly because the correlation between A-shares and US stocks was relatively low before 2015.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e270fdee3a166416e98f5c2fdf52ea3d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bond market: The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds generally declined in the short term, with the decline range also being 10-30 days, before continuing to decline after a brief rebound; The yield on 10-year Chinese bonds has mostly declined in the short term, and its medium- to long-term trend is likely to fluctuate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7697addec2acb2db96ccf9e263363fbf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Exchange rate: the US Dollar Index experienced three sustained declines, one sustained rise, and one period of slight fluctuation;</p><p>Gold: Spot gold experienced two consecutive declines, two consecutive rises, and one initial decline followed by a rise.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0550757b3c7c99d521b0a87637d529a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"411\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Crude oil: Crude oil prices have generally risen in the short term, with the range of increases also ranging from 10 to 30 days, and there is no consistent pattern in the medium to long term.</p><p>Copper: Copper prices have mostly fallen in the short term, with the decline range also being 10-30 days, and there is no consistent pattern in the medium to long term.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58e7067c2e912053babb0dedecb700c7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Summary of patterns: In summary, geopolitical conflicts can negatively impact risky assets in the short term, while benefiting safe-haven assets and energy commodities. The impact is often concentrated in the 10-30 days after the outbreak of the conflict, and the impact on the medium- to long-term trend of asset prices is relatively weak.</p><p>3. Four scenarios for the impact of the current Russia-Ukraine conflict: global economy, asset prices, global inflation, and the pace of the Federal Reserve's rate hike.</p><p>1) Impact on the global economy: If the conflict continues to escalate, Russia will likely face a new round of sanctions, which will also drag down the global economy. As of 2020, Russia's GDP and total imports and exports of goods amounted to US$1.5 trillion and US$569.3 billion respectively, accounting for 1.7% and 1.6% of the global total, respectively, and its direct impact on the global economy and trade is expected to be limited. However, given that Russia is a major global exporter of energy and raw materials, we need to be wary of the risks arising from sanctions against Russia leading to rising commodity prices. For example, in 2020, Russia exported approximately 1999 billion cubic meters of natural gas, accounting for about 16.2% of global natural gas exports. Of this, about 80% was exported to Europe, accounting for more than 40% of Europe's natural gas imports. If the tension between Russia and Ukraine continues and the US and Europe launch a new round of sanctions against Russia, it will further exacerbate the natural gas shortage in Europe, thereby dragging down the European economy.</p><p>2) Impact on asset prices: Based on the above analysis, if the fire in eastern Ukraine on February 17 is taken as the starting point of the conflict, global stock markets will still face downward pressure in the next month, Treasury Bond yields will continue to decline, and crude oil and gold are expected to rise further. However, a month later, asset price trends will return to being dominated by fundamentals. In addition, Russia and Ukraine are also important exporters of commodities such as steel, corn, wheat, barley, and fertilizers (see Chart 11 for specific commodities and shares). If the conflict between the two sides continues to escalate, the prices of these commodities may rise further in the short term due to supply disruptions.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b5c88fd3fca5f8262509fb196612c61\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"671\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82a027493d3e9b071117b063493e8d8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>3) Impact on inflation: Pushing up oil prices to high levels in the short term will increase global inflationary pressures, but it will be difficult to reverse the downward trend in my country's PPI.</p><p>US inflation: Remains high in the short term, and the turning point of the decline will be delayed. In our previous reports, we have repeatedly pointed out that inflation in developed countries such as the United States is significantly affected by energy prices. According to rough estimates, assuming that oil prices average $105 per barrel over the next 1-3 months, the US CPI will further rise to around 8% year-on-year in February-March. If oil prices cannot fall quickly, the turning point in US inflation may be delayed until around May.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bf730b4ac6bfc18f1c5eb4f702a4166\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"792\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>China's inflation: According to calculations, if oil prices rise by 10%, it will drive up the CPI and PPI by 0.09% and 0.4% respectively; Looking ahead to the whole year, the CPI is expected to remain low at the beginning and high at the end, and rising oil prices are unlikely to reverse the downward trend in PPI.</p><p>1) CPI: Oil prices mainly affect two sub-items of CPI: residential hydroelectric fuel and transportation fuel. If oil prices rise by 10% year-on-year, it will drive the above two sub-items up by 0.8 and 2.3 percentage points respectively. Considering the weight of the above sub-items in CPI, it can be converted that if oil prices rise by 10% year-on-year, it may drive the CPI up by 0.09 percentage points year-on-year. In the short term, the average oil price rose to $92.7 per barrel in the first 21 days of February, a year-on-year increase of 48.8%, which is expected to boost the CPI by about 0.5 percentage points year-on-year. Taking into account the base, changes in food and non-food prices, the CPI is expected to rebound slightly year-on-year in February. Looking at the whole year, the CPI is expected to remain low at the beginning and high at the end, and under the baseline scenario, the central level for the whole year may be higher than 2.0%.</p><p>2) PPI: Oil prices mainly affect the PPI sub-items such as oil and gas extraction, fuel processing, chemical manufacturing, and chemical fiber manufacturing. According to the model, if oil prices rise by 10%, it will drive up the PPI sub-items of oil and gas extraction, fuel processing, chemical industry, and chemical fiber by 7.3, 4.1, 2.0, and 2.2 percentage points, respectively. Considering that the above-mentioned sub-items account for 0.7%, 4.3%, 6.5%, and 0.8% of the PPI, respectively, it can be converted to a 10% year-on-year increase in oil prices, which may drive up the PPI by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year. In the short term, oil prices are expected to drive up the PPI by about 1.9 percentage points in February; Taking into account the base and changes in other industrial product prices, the year-on-year PPI in February may still decline slightly. Looking at the whole year, as the PPI base rebounds month by month, rising oil prices are unlikely to reverse the downward trend in PPI.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ed90879ecee1fc82d23a7e0d11ddee4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"452\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/911d90c91485c6f8978e6b5b054adbd3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Disturbing the convergence rhythm of PPI-CPI scissors difference & the upstream and downstream transmission rhythm of corporate profits. Based on the previous calculations, the impact of rising oil prices on PPI is significantly greater than that of CPI; Therefore, rising oil prices may disrupt both the pace of convergence of the PPI-CPI scissors gap and the pace of upstream and downstream profit transmission. Specifically, upstream profitability is likely to remain at a high level in the short term, while the uncertainty of improving profitability in the midstream and downstream sectors is increasing. From an industry perspective, the profits of industries such as oil and gas extraction, fuel processing, chemicals, and chemical fibers are positively correlated with oil prices, while the profits of the rubber and plastics industry are negatively correlated with oil prices. If oil prices remain high, the profitability of industries such as oil and gas extraction may be supported, and the suppression on the rubber and plastics industry may continue. (See the previous report \"2022 Profits Will Be Transmitted to Upstream and Downstream Sectors—Calculation Based on PPI-CPI Scissors Difference\" for details)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c1dc18b4888a8b1fd254b88563c399\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>4) Impact on the pace of the Fed's rate hike: On the one hand, as previously analyzed, this conflict may raise US inflation and delay the inflation inflection point, but the current Fed rate hike expectations have fully reflected high inflation; On the other hand, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has exacerbated uncertainty about the global economic outlook and increased downward pressure on US stocks, which will constrain the Federal Reserve's rate hike pace. Overall, interest rate futures data shows that since mid-February, market expectations for rate hike in March have decreased from 1.7 to 1.2, and for rate hike throughout the year from 6.6 to 5.9, reflecting that expectations for rate hike have begun to cool down. We maintain our previous assessment: the Federal Reserve will be hawkish first and then dovish in 2022, with 3-4 rate hike expected throughout the year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9bbc1d19f9386cdf6bd129a69fefaf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"807\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Risk warning: The Russia-Ukraine conflict is evolving beyond expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1589878828889","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>It concerns the global economy! Four impacts of the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIt concerns the global economy! Four impacts of the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">熊园观察</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-23 11:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: The Russia-Ukraine conflict has exacerbated uncertainty about the global economic outlook and increased downward pressure on US stocks, thereby constraining the Federal Reserve's rate hike pace. Event: On February 21 local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a presidential decree recognizing the People's Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine and signed a treaty of friendship, cooperation and mutual assistance between Russia and the two countries. Global stock markets plummeted, while crude oil and gold prices surged.</p><p>Key conclusions:</p><p>1. The Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to escalate, greatly increasing the likelihood of it escalating into war.</p><p>2. Learning from history, the performance patterns of major asset classes after geopolitical conflicts: In the short term, it will be negative for risky assets and beneficial for safe-haven assets and energy products. The impact is often concentrated in the 10-30 days after the outbreak of the conflict, and the impact on the medium- to long-term trend of asset prices is weak.</p><p>3. If the current Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to escalate, there are four possible impacts:</p><p>Regarding the global economy: Russia is likely to face a new round of sanctions; Given that Russia is a major global exporter of energy and raw materials, it is necessary to be wary of the derivative risks that sanctions against Russia could lead to rising commodity prices. Regarding asset prices: Based on the aforementioned experience, if we only consider this conflict, global stock markets will still face downward pressure in the next month, Treasury Bond yields will decline, and crude oil and gold are expected to rise further. However, after a month, asset price trends will return to being dominated by fundamentals. Prices of commodities such as steel, corn, wheat, barley, and fertilizers may rise further in the short term due to supply disruptions. Regarding global inflation: Pushing up oil prices to high levels in the short term will increase global inflationary pressures, including: 1) US inflation remains high in the short term, and the turning point of the decline will be delayed; 2) For China, according to calculations, if oil prices rise by 10%, it will drive up CPI and PPI by 0.09% and 0.4% respectively. It is expected that CPI will remain low at the beginning and high at the end of the year, and rising oil prices will not be able to change the downward trend of PPI. 3) Given that rising oil prices have a significantly greater impact on PPI than on CPI, this will disrupt the pace of convergence of the PPI-CPI scissors gap in my country, and will also disrupt the pace of upstream and downstream transmission of corporate profits. Regarding the Fed's rate hike pace: The Russia-Ukraine conflict will exacerbate uncertainty in the global economic outlook and increase downward pressure on US stocks, thereby constraining the Fed's rate hike pace. In fact, since mid-February, the Federal Reserve's rate hike expectations have begun to cool. We maintain our previous assessment: the Federal Reserve will be hawkish first and then dovish in 2022, with 3-4 rate hike expected throughout the year. The text is as follows:</p><p>1. The Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to escalate, greatly increasing the likelihood of it escalating into war. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has a long history, with the core differences being \"NATO's eastward expansion\" and \"Ukraine's accession to NATO.\" In mid-January 2022, Russia held talks with the United States, NATO, and the OSCE on the situation in Ukraine, but without achieving significant results. After a month of negotiations, the conflict between the two sides escalated again: on the 21st, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a presidential decree recognizing the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic, and signed a treaty of friendship, cooperation and mutual assistance between Russia and the two. At the same time, he ordered \"peacekeeping forces\" to enter the region, greatly increasing the possibility of the conflict between the two sides escalating into war. In response, the United States announced financial sanctions against Russia and warned that it was prepared to impose more sanctions if necessary.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6af52f7a91e964f09f82387d80558d85\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"707\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a906fdd0c25182405d6b9ff629db6791\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>2. Learning from history, the impact of geopolitical conflicts on assets: Short-term negative impact on risky assets, positive impact on safe-haven assets and resource commodities, but weak medium- to long-term impact.</p><p>For better comparison, we selected five large-scale geopolitical conflicts involving major powers since 2000 as our analysis objects, including the Afghanistan War in 2001, the Iraq War in 2003, the Libyan War and the Syrian War in 2011, and the Crimean referendum in 2014. The performance of various asset prices during the outbreak of these conflicts is as follows:</p><p>Stock market: US stocks generally fell in the short term, with the decline lasting generally 10-30 days, before resuming their upward trend. A-shares have mostly risen in the short term, but there is no consistent pattern in their medium- to long-term trends. The divergence between A-shares and US stocks is partly due to the fact that none of the recent rounds of geopolitical conflicts involved China, and partly because the correlation between A-shares and US stocks was relatively low before 2015.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e270fdee3a166416e98f5c2fdf52ea3d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bond market: The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds generally declined in the short term, with the decline range also being 10-30 days, before continuing to decline after a brief rebound; The yield on 10-year Chinese bonds has mostly declined in the short term, and its medium- to long-term trend is likely to fluctuate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7697addec2acb2db96ccf9e263363fbf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Exchange rate: the US Dollar Index experienced three sustained declines, one sustained rise, and one period of slight fluctuation;</p><p>Gold: Spot gold experienced two consecutive declines, two consecutive rises, and one initial decline followed by a rise.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0550757b3c7c99d521b0a87637d529a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"411\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Crude oil: Crude oil prices have generally risen in the short term, with the range of increases also ranging from 10 to 30 days, and there is no consistent pattern in the medium to long term.</p><p>Copper: Copper prices have mostly fallen in the short term, with the decline range also being 10-30 days, and there is no consistent pattern in the medium to long term.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58e7067c2e912053babb0dedecb700c7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Summary of patterns: In summary, geopolitical conflicts can negatively impact risky assets in the short term, while benefiting safe-haven assets and energy commodities. The impact is often concentrated in the 10-30 days after the outbreak of the conflict, and the impact on the medium- to long-term trend of asset prices is relatively weak.</p><p>3. Four scenarios for the impact of the current Russia-Ukraine conflict: global economy, asset prices, global inflation, and the pace of the Federal Reserve's rate hike.</p><p>1) Impact on the global economy: If the conflict continues to escalate, Russia will likely face a new round of sanctions, which will also drag down the global economy. As of 2020, Russia's GDP and total imports and exports of goods amounted to US$1.5 trillion and US$569.3 billion respectively, accounting for 1.7% and 1.6% of the global total, respectively, and its direct impact on the global economy and trade is expected to be limited. However, given that Russia is a major global exporter of energy and raw materials, we need to be wary of the risks arising from sanctions against Russia leading to rising commodity prices. For example, in 2020, Russia exported approximately 1999 billion cubic meters of natural gas, accounting for about 16.2% of global natural gas exports. Of this, about 80% was exported to Europe, accounting for more than 40% of Europe's natural gas imports. If the tension between Russia and Ukraine continues and the US and Europe launch a new round of sanctions against Russia, it will further exacerbate the natural gas shortage in Europe, thereby dragging down the European economy.</p><p>2) Impact on asset prices: Based on the above analysis, if the fire in eastern Ukraine on February 17 is taken as the starting point of the conflict, global stock markets will still face downward pressure in the next month, Treasury Bond yields will continue to decline, and crude oil and gold are expected to rise further. However, a month later, asset price trends will return to being dominated by fundamentals. In addition, Russia and Ukraine are also important exporters of commodities such as steel, corn, wheat, barley, and fertilizers (see Chart 11 for specific commodities and shares). If the conflict between the two sides continues to escalate, the prices of these commodities may rise further in the short term due to supply disruptions.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b5c88fd3fca5f8262509fb196612c61\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"671\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82a027493d3e9b071117b063493e8d8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>3) Impact on inflation: Pushing up oil prices to high levels in the short term will increase global inflationary pressures, but it will be difficult to reverse the downward trend in my country's PPI.</p><p>US inflation: Remains high in the short term, and the turning point of the decline will be delayed. In our previous reports, we have repeatedly pointed out that inflation in developed countries such as the United States is significantly affected by energy prices. According to rough estimates, assuming that oil prices average $105 per barrel over the next 1-3 months, the US CPI will further rise to around 8% year-on-year in February-March. If oil prices cannot fall quickly, the turning point in US inflation may be delayed until around May.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bf730b4ac6bfc18f1c5eb4f702a4166\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"792\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>China's inflation: According to calculations, if oil prices rise by 10%, it will drive up the CPI and PPI by 0.09% and 0.4% respectively; Looking ahead to the whole year, the CPI is expected to remain low at the beginning and high at the end, and rising oil prices are unlikely to reverse the downward trend in PPI.</p><p>1) CPI: Oil prices mainly affect two sub-items of CPI: residential hydroelectric fuel and transportation fuel. If oil prices rise by 10% year-on-year, it will drive the above two sub-items up by 0.8 and 2.3 percentage points respectively. Considering the weight of the above sub-items in CPI, it can be converted that if oil prices rise by 10% year-on-year, it may drive the CPI up by 0.09 percentage points year-on-year. In the short term, the average oil price rose to $92.7 per barrel in the first 21 days of February, a year-on-year increase of 48.8%, which is expected to boost the CPI by about 0.5 percentage points year-on-year. Taking into account the base, changes in food and non-food prices, the CPI is expected to rebound slightly year-on-year in February. Looking at the whole year, the CPI is expected to remain low at the beginning and high at the end, and under the baseline scenario, the central level for the whole year may be higher than 2.0%.</p><p>2) PPI: Oil prices mainly affect the PPI sub-items such as oil and gas extraction, fuel processing, chemical manufacturing, and chemical fiber manufacturing. According to the model, if oil prices rise by 10%, it will drive up the PPI sub-items of oil and gas extraction, fuel processing, chemical industry, and chemical fiber by 7.3, 4.1, 2.0, and 2.2 percentage points, respectively. Considering that the above-mentioned sub-items account for 0.7%, 4.3%, 6.5%, and 0.8% of the PPI, respectively, it can be converted to a 10% year-on-year increase in oil prices, which may drive up the PPI by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year. In the short term, oil prices are expected to drive up the PPI by about 1.9 percentage points in February; Taking into account the base and changes in other industrial product prices, the year-on-year PPI in February may still decline slightly. Looking at the whole year, as the PPI base rebounds month by month, rising oil prices are unlikely to reverse the downward trend in PPI.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ed90879ecee1fc82d23a7e0d11ddee4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"452\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/911d90c91485c6f8978e6b5b054adbd3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Disturbing the convergence rhythm of PPI-CPI scissors difference & the upstream and downstream transmission rhythm of corporate profits. Based on the previous calculations, the impact of rising oil prices on PPI is significantly greater than that of CPI; Therefore, rising oil prices may disrupt both the pace of convergence of the PPI-CPI scissors gap and the pace of upstream and downstream profit transmission. Specifically, upstream profitability is likely to remain at a high level in the short term, while the uncertainty of improving profitability in the midstream and downstream sectors is increasing. From an industry perspective, the profits of industries such as oil and gas extraction, fuel processing, chemicals, and chemical fibers are positively correlated with oil prices, while the profits of the rubber and plastics industry are negatively correlated with oil prices. If oil prices remain high, the profitability of industries such as oil and gas extraction may be supported, and the suppression on the rubber and plastics industry may continue. (See the previous report \"2022 Profits Will Be Transmitted to Upstream and Downstream Sectors—Calculation Based on PPI-CPI Scissors Difference\" for details)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c1dc18b4888a8b1fd254b88563c399\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>4) Impact on the pace of the Fed's rate hike: On the one hand, as previously analyzed, this conflict may raise US inflation and delay the inflation inflection point, but the current Fed rate hike expectations have fully reflected high inflation; On the other hand, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has exacerbated uncertainty about the global economic outlook and increased downward pressure on US stocks, which will constrain the Federal Reserve's rate hike pace. Overall, interest rate futures data shows that since mid-February, market expectations for rate hike in March have decreased from 1.7 to 1.2, and for rate hike throughout the year from 6.6 to 5.9, reflecting that expectations for rate hike have begun to cool down. We maintain our previous assessment: the Federal Reserve will be hawkish first and then dovish in 2022, with 3-4 rate hike expected throughout the year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9bbc1d19f9386cdf6bd129a69fefaf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"807\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Risk warning: The Russia-Ukraine conflict is evolving beyond expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.cls.cn/detail/940565\">熊园观察</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bc03fbf058ce151dd2a13f771bc11dc","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","518880":"黄金ETF华安","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","SPY":"标普500ETF","UGAZ":"三倍做多天然气ETN(VelocityShares)",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","USO":"美国原油ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","UNG":"美国天然气基金","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","OEX":"标普100","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://www.cls.cn/detail/940565","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2213496312","content_text":"摘要：俄乌冲突加剧了全球经济前景的不确定性，也加大了美股下跌压力，从而会制约美联储加息步伐。事件：当地时间2月21日，俄罗斯总统普京签署承认乌东两地顿涅茨克和卢甘斯克的人民共和国总统令，并签署俄罗斯与二者的友好合作互助条约，全球股市大跌，原油、黄金大涨。核心结论：1、俄乌冲突持续升级，演化成战争的可能性大增。2、以史为鉴，地缘冲突后大类资产的表现规律：短期会利空风险资产，利好避险资产和能源品，影响往往集中在冲突爆发后的10-30天，对资产价格中长期走势的影响较弱。3、如果本次俄乌冲突持续升级，可能的4点影响：对全球经济：俄罗斯大概率会面临新一轮制裁；鉴于俄罗斯是全球主要的能源、原材料出口国，需警惕制裁俄罗斯导致大宗商品价格上涨的衍生风险。对资产价格：参照前述经验，若仅考虑本次冲突，未来一个月内全球股市仍有下跌压力，国债收益率趋下行，原油和黄金有望进一步上涨，但一个月之后，资产价格走势将重新回归基本面主导；钢铁、玉米、小麦、大麦、肥料等商品价格，短期内可能因供给受阻而进一步上涨。对全球通胀：推升油价短期处于高位，加大全球通胀压力，其中：1）美国通胀短期仍高，回落拐点也将延后；2）对中国，按照测算，如果油价上涨10%，将分别拉动CPI、PPI上行0.09%、0.4%，预计全年CPI仍将前低后高，油价上行也难改PPI下行趋势；3）鉴于油价上涨对PPI的影响明显大于CPI，这将扰动我国PPI-CPI剪刀差收敛节奏，也会扰动企业盈利上下游传导节奏。对美联储加息节奏：俄乌冲突将加剧全球经济前景的不确定性，也将加大美股下跌压力，从而会制约美联储加息步伐。事实上，2月中旬以来，美联储加息预期已开始降温。维持此前判断：2022年美联储将先鹰后鸽，预计全年加息3-4次。正文如下：1、俄乌冲突持续升级，演化成战争的可能性大增。俄乌问题由来已久，其中核心分歧在于“北约东扩”、“乌克兰加入北约”，2022年1月中旬俄罗斯曾先后与美国、北约、欧安组织就乌克兰局势举行会谈，但未取得明显成效。经过长达1个月的博弈，双方冲突再度升级：21日俄罗斯总统普京签署了承认顿涅茨克人民共和国和卢甘斯克人民共和国的总统令，并签署俄罗斯与二者的友好合作互助条约，同时下令“维和部队”进入该地区，双方冲突演变成战争的可能性大增。作为回应，美国宣布对俄罗斯实施金融制裁，并警告说如有必要，准备实施更多制裁。2、以史为鉴，地缘冲突对资产的影响：短期利空风险资产、利好避险和资源品，中长期影响较弱为了更好地对比，我们选取2000年以来“5次规模较大、涉及主要大国的地缘冲突”作为分析对象，包括2001年阿富汗战争、2003年伊拉克战争、2011年利比亚战争&叙利亚战争，2014年克里米亚公投，冲突爆发期间，各类资产价格的表现情况如下：股市：美股短期普遍下跌，下跌区间基本在10-30天，随后重新开始上涨；A股则短期大多表现为上涨，中长期走势无一致规律。A股与美股背离，一方面是由于这几轮地缘冲突均未涉及中国，另一方面则是2015年之前A股与美股相关性较低；债市：10Y美债收益率短期普遍下行，下行区间同样在10-30天，随后在短暂反弹后继续下行；10Y中债收益率短期也大多下行，中长期走势偏震荡；汇率：美元指数有3次持续下跌、1次持续上涨、1次偏震荡；黄金：现货黄金2次持续下跌、2次持续上涨、1次先跌后涨；原油：原油价格短期普遍上涨，上涨区间同样在10-30天，中长期走势无一致规律；铜：铜价短期大多下跌，下跌区间同样在10-30天，中长期走势无一致规律。规律总结：综上梳理可知，地缘冲突短期会利空风险资产、利好避险资产和能源品，影响往往集中在冲突爆发后的10-30天，对资产价格中长期走势的影响较弱。3、本次俄乌冲突影响的4点推演：全球经济、资产价格、全球通胀、美联储加息节奏1）对全球经济的影响：如果冲突继续升级，俄罗斯大概率会面临新一轮制裁，也将对全球经济形成拖累。截至2020年，俄罗斯GDP、进出口商品总额分别为1.5万亿美元、5693亿美元，分别占全球的1.7%、1.6%，预计对全球经济和贸易的直接影响有限。但考虑到俄罗斯是全球主要的能源、原材料出口国，需警惕制裁俄罗斯导致大宗商品价格上涨衍生出来的风险。比如，2020年俄罗斯天然气出口约1999亿立方米，占全球天然气出口的份额约16.2%，其中约80%出口欧洲，占欧洲天然气进口的40%以上，如果后续俄乌局势持续紧张、美欧对俄罗斯开启新一轮制裁，将进一步加剧欧洲天然气短缺格局，从而拖累欧洲经济。2）对资产价格的影响：结合前述分析，若以2月17日乌东地区开火作为冲突爆发的起点，则未来近一个月的时间内全球股市仍有下跌压力，国债收益率仍趋下行，原油和黄金有望进一步上涨；但一个月之后，资产价格走势将重新回归基本面主导。此外，俄罗斯和乌克兰也是全球钢铁、玉米、小麦、大麦、肥料等商品的重要出口国（具体商品和份额见图表11），若双方冲突持续加剧，短期内这些商品的价格可能因供给受阻而进一步上涨。3）对通胀的影响：推升油价短期处于高位，加大全球通胀压力，但难改我国PPI下行趋势美国通胀：短期仍高，回落拐点也将延迟。前期报告我们多次指出，美国等发达国家通胀受能源价格影响较大。根据粗略估算，若假设油价未来1-3个月均值均为105美元/桶，美国2-3月CPI同比将进一步升至8%左右；若油价无法快速回落，美国通胀拐点时间可能延迟到5月前后。中国通胀：按照测算，如果油价上涨10%，将分别拉动CPI、PPI上行0.09%、0.4%；全年看，CPI预计仍将前低后高，油价上行预计难改PPI下行趋势。1）CPI：油价主要影响CPI居住水电燃料、交通工具用燃料两个分项，如果油价同比上涨10%，将分别带动上述两个分项上涨0.8、2.3个百分点，结合上述分项占CPI的权重，可以折算如果油价同比上涨10%，可能拉动CPI同比上行0.09个百分点。短期看，2月前21天油价均值涨至92.7美元/桶，同比增48.8%，预计将提振CPI同比约0.5个百分点，综合考虑基数、食品、非食品分项价格变动，预计2月CPI同比可能小幅回升。全年看，CPI预计仍会维持前低后高，基准情形下全年中枢可能高于2.0%。2）PPI：油价主要影响PPI油气开采、燃料加工、化工制造、化纤制造等分项，按照模型测算，如果油价上涨10%，将分别带动PPI油气开采、燃料加工、化工、化纤分项上行7.3、4.1、2.0和2.2个百分点，考虑上述分项占PPI的比重分别为0.7%、4.3%、6.5%和0.8%，可以折算如果油价同比上涨10%，可能拉动PPI同比上行0.4个百分点。短期看，2月油价预计拉动PPI上行约1.9个百分点；综合考虑基数及其他工业品价格变动，2月PPI同比可能仍将小幅回落。全年看，由于PPI基数逐月回升，油价上涨大概率难改PPI下行趋势。扰动PPI-CPI剪刀差收敛节奏&企业盈利上下游传导节奏。基于前文的测算，油价上涨对PPI的影响明显大于CPI；因此油价上涨可能对PPI-CPI剪刀差收敛节奏和盈利上下游传导节奏均形成扰动。具体看，上游盈利短期可能仍将处于较高水平，中下游盈利改善的不确定性增加。产业视角看，油气开采、燃料加工、化工、化纤等行业盈利跟油价正相关，橡胶塑料行业盈利跟油价负相关。如果油价持续处于较高水平，油气开采等行业盈利可能存在支撑，对橡胶塑料行业的压制可能持续存在。（详见前期报告《2022年盈利将上下游传导—基于PPI-CPI剪刀差的测算》）4）对美联储加息节奏的影响：一方面，如前分析，本次冲突可能抬升美国通胀并延后通胀拐点，但当前美联储加息预期已充分反映了高通胀；另一方面，俄乌冲突加剧了全球经济前景的不确定性，也加大了美股下跌压力，从而会制约美联储加息步伐。综合看，利率期货数据显示，2月中旬以来，市场预期3月加息次数由1.7次降至1.2次，全年加息次数由6.6次降至5.9次，反映出加息预期已开始降温。维持我们此前判断：2022年美联储将先鹰后鸽，预计全年加息3-4次。风险提示：俄乌冲突超预期演化。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159934":0.6,"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"518880":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"DWT":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"UBmain":0.9,"DUG":0.6,"SGUmain":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"ZNmain":0.9,".SPX":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"ZTmain":0.9,"USO":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"SH":0.6,"DUST":0.6,".DJI":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"DOG":0.6,"UWTIF":0.6,"ZFmain":0.9,"BZmain":0.6,"MGCmain":0.6,"QID":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"CLmain":0.9,"UGAZ":0.6,"UNG":0.6,"QMmain":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"IAU":0.6,"UCO":0.6,"SCO":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"DJX":0.6,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"NGmain":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"DWTIF":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5289,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9097752910,"gmtCreate":1645573006770,"gmtModify":1676534040192,"author":{"id":"3585175863243941","authorId":"3585175863243941","name":"tay931888","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/f29802fbd50af9b6ba06ceae0ab19620","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585175863243941","authorIdStr":"3585175863243941"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"OK","li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😌😌😌","listText":"Good 😌😌😌","text":"Good 😌😌😌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9097555789","repostId":"2213860349","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5091,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9097616062,"gmtCreate":1645439670099,"gmtModify":1676534027744,"author":{"id":"3585175863243941","authorId":"3585175863243941","name":"tay931888","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/f29802fbd50af9b6ba06ceae0ab19620","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585175863243941","authorIdStr":"3585175863243941"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9097616062","repostId":"2212677275","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2212677275","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1645411504,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2212677275?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-21 10:45","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Learn from history! How will US stocks perform during a tightening cycle?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2212677275","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"近期，激进加息预期激增，华尔街分析师都在思考一个问题：本次紧缩周期中美股会作何反应？美国银行在最新报告中指出，绝大多数乐观派认为，在过去的七个加息周期中，标普500指数一直是正回报。但这几乎只出现在经","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Recently, expectations of aggressive rate hike have surged, and Wall Street analysts are pondering one question: How will US stocks react during this tightening cycle?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>The latest report points out that the vast majority of optimists believe that the S&P 500 has consistently delivered positive returns over the past seven rate hike cycles.<b>However, this almost only occurs during periods of accelerated economic growth. Since 1950, when economic recovery has slowed, returns have remained flat or declined.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd1e1ffad540c4f6e7aa2033aae33859\" tg-width=\"1560\" tg-height=\"924\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In the coming tightening cycle, there is an even greater risk.<b>Current valuations in the US stock market are relatively high.</b></p><p>In fact, the S&P 500 index before this first rate hike was more expensive than in any other rate hike cycle except the period 1999-2000.</p><p>To make matters worse, the actual interest cost of this debt is negative, compared to the cost of equity in 1999. During this cycle, the Federal Funds rate rose 150 basis points, and the market rose as it rose, but the S&P 500 peaked in March 2000 and then fell 49% over the next two and a half years.</p><p>Given these two main risk factors, even if the upcoming tightening cycle may be short-lived (Federal Funds rate futures have already reflected at least two interest rate cuts before 2024), Bank of America is siding with the bear market this time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc5ab5839fdac8ef84d42f03c1885828\" tg-width=\"1648\" tg-height=\"784\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Bond alternative stocks performed the worst, while cyclical stocks performed the best.</b></p><p>Bank of America believes that, in terms of industry sectors, bond alternatives performed the worst, while cyclical sectors performed the best.</p><p>In historical tightening cycles, bond alternatives such as utilities and real estate, as well as industrial stocks, have underperformed the S&P 500.</p><p>The consumer discretionaries sector has outperformed the S&P 500 and outperformed other sectors, but it currently faces risks from high labor intensity and wage pressures.</p><p><b>Other industries that have performed well historically include technology, energy, materials, and daily consumer goods.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf2396603b1b718b964d5584d7b23d32\" tg-width=\"1508\" tg-height=\"786\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>However, in rate hike cycles, industry alpha is more discrete, and the stock factor may be a better explanatory variable.</b></p><p>During the year the Federal Reserve began its rate hike, stock market factors performed well with low enterprise value multiples (EV/EBITDA), high valuations, and low net asset value per share. Low enterprise value multiples and high enterprise value/free cash flow outperformed the broader market in each cycle, with stocks with low net asset value per share outperforming the market in 80% of cases. Measured by these indicators, the currently lower-priced industries are energy materials and healthcare.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac082cc07dc1c56833e8d373417f1682\" tg-width=\"1568\" tg-height=\"902\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Small-cap stocks outperform large-cap stocks</p><p>Bank of America believes that a company's outstanding shares are also a good measure of its performance in the rate hike.</p><p><b>Small-cap stocks typically perform well in the months before a rate hike begins, but slightly weaker after a rate hike begins.</b>But unlike other rate hike cycles, small-cap stocks are currently cheaper than large-cap stocks.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d1deb9d33895b10c21ecd6863c8e597\" tg-width=\"1668\" tg-height=\"1202\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>P/E for small-cap stocks typically rise 5-6% in the first three months of a rate hike and fall 8% during the rally. However, the Russell 2000 P/E has fallen 12% since last November, the lowest level relative to P/E since 2000.</p><p>Meanwhile, the correlation between the performance of small-cap stocks and 10-year changes (positive correlation) is much greater than the correlation between the performance of large-cap stocks and changes in Federal Funds rate (almost no correlation).</p><p>The Bank of America report also pointed out that faster tightening will not be more detrimental to small businesses, and there is no correlation between the speed of rate hike and relative scale performance.</p><p><b>Furthermore, during periods of balance sheet contraction, history shows that stocks > bonds, value stocks > growth stocks, and large-cap stocks = small-cap stocks.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1deea07177357b743f796a2d50d1956c\" tg-width=\"1636\" tg-height=\"770\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Learn from history! How will US stocks perform during a tightening cycle?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLearn from history! How will US stocks perform during a tightening cycle?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-21 10:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Recently, expectations of aggressive rate hike have surged, and Wall Street analysts are pondering one question: How will US stocks react during this tightening cycle?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>The latest report points out that the vast majority of optimists believe that the S&P 500 has consistently delivered positive returns over the past seven rate hike cycles.<b>However, this almost only occurs during periods of accelerated economic growth. Since 1950, when economic recovery has slowed, returns have remained flat or declined.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd1e1ffad540c4f6e7aa2033aae33859\" tg-width=\"1560\" tg-height=\"924\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In the coming tightening cycle, there is an even greater risk.<b>Current valuations in the US stock market are relatively high.</b></p><p>In fact, the S&P 500 index before this first rate hike was more expensive than in any other rate hike cycle except the period 1999-2000.</p><p>To make matters worse, the actual interest cost of this debt is negative, compared to the cost of equity in 1999. During this cycle, the Federal Funds rate rose 150 basis points, and the market rose as it rose, but the S&P 500 peaked in March 2000 and then fell 49% over the next two and a half years.</p><p>Given these two main risk factors, even if the upcoming tightening cycle may be short-lived (Federal Funds rate futures have already reflected at least two interest rate cuts before 2024), Bank of America is siding with the bear market this time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc5ab5839fdac8ef84d42f03c1885828\" tg-width=\"1648\" tg-height=\"784\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Bond alternative stocks performed the worst, while cyclical stocks performed the best.</b></p><p>Bank of America believes that, in terms of industry sectors, bond alternatives performed the worst, while cyclical sectors performed the best.</p><p>In historical tightening cycles, bond alternatives such as utilities and real estate, as well as industrial stocks, have underperformed the S&P 500.</p><p>The consumer discretionaries sector has outperformed the S&P 500 and outperformed other sectors, but it currently faces risks from high labor intensity and wage pressures.</p><p><b>Other industries that have performed well historically include technology, energy, materials, and daily consumer goods.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf2396603b1b718b964d5584d7b23d32\" tg-width=\"1508\" tg-height=\"786\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>However, in rate hike cycles, industry alpha is more discrete, and the stock factor may be a better explanatory variable.</b></p><p>During the year the Federal Reserve began its rate hike, stock market factors performed well with low enterprise value multiples (EV/EBITDA), high valuations, and low net asset value per share. Low enterprise value multiples and high enterprise value/free cash flow outperformed the broader market in each cycle, with stocks with low net asset value per share outperforming the market in 80% of cases. Measured by these indicators, the currently lower-priced industries are energy materials and healthcare.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac082cc07dc1c56833e8d373417f1682\" tg-width=\"1568\" tg-height=\"902\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Small-cap stocks outperform large-cap stocks</p><p>Bank of America believes that a company's outstanding shares are also a good measure of its performance in the rate hike.</p><p><b>Small-cap stocks typically perform well in the months before a rate hike begins, but slightly weaker after a rate hike begins.</b>But unlike other rate hike cycles, small-cap stocks are currently cheaper than large-cap stocks.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d1deb9d33895b10c21ecd6863c8e597\" tg-width=\"1668\" tg-height=\"1202\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>P/E for small-cap stocks typically rise 5-6% in the first three months of a rate hike and fall 8% during the rally. However, the Russell 2000 P/E has fallen 12% since last November, the lowest level relative to P/E since 2000.</p><p>Meanwhile, the correlation between the performance of small-cap stocks and 10-year changes (positive correlation) is much greater than the correlation between the performance of large-cap stocks and changes in Federal Funds rate (almost no correlation).</p><p>The Bank of America report also pointed out that faster tightening will not be more detrimental to small businesses, and there is no correlation between the speed of rate hike and relative scale performance.</p><p><b>Furthermore, during periods of balance sheet contraction, history shows that stocks > bonds, value stocks > growth stocks, and large-cap stocks = small-cap stocks.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1deea07177357b743f796a2d50d1956c\" tg-width=\"1636\" tg-height=\"770\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3652358\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c7221d934f1008e531bdf79c8cfe0ee","relate_stocks":{"BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BAC":"美国银行","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4207":"综合性银行","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3652358","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2212677275","content_text":"近期，激进加息预期激增，华尔街分析师都在思考一个问题：本次紧缩周期中美股会作何反应？美国银行在最新报告中指出，绝大多数乐观派认为，在过去的七个加息周期中，标普500指数一直是正回报。但这几乎只出现在经济增长加速的阶段，自1950年以来，当经济复苏放缓时，回报率持平或下降。在即将到来的紧缩周期中，还有一个更大的风险，当前美股市场估值偏高。事实上，本轮首次加息前的标普500指数比除了1999-2000年期间之外的任何其它加息周期都要昂贵。更糟的是，这次债务的实际利息成本是负的，而在1999年，权益成本是负的。在这一周期中，联邦基金利率上升了150个基点，市场在上升过程中走高，但标普指数在2000年3月见顶，随后在接下来的两年半中下跌了49%。考虑到这两个主要风险因素，即使将到来的紧缩周期可能是短暂的（联邦基金利率期货已经反映出在2024年之前至少两次降息），美银这次也站队熊市阵营。债券替代股表现最差，周期股表现最好美银认为，从行业板块来看，债券替代股表现最差，周期性板块表现最好。在历史紧缩周期中，公用事业、房地产等债券替代股以及工业股表现比标普500要差。非必需消费品板块的表现比标普500指数要好，且超过其他板块，但目前该板块面临高劳动强度和工资压力带来的风险。历史上其他表现良好的行业包括科技、能源、材料和日常消费品。但在加息周期中，行业alpha的离散程度较大，而股票因子可能是一个更好的解释变量。在美联储开启加息的一年内，股市因子表现为企业价值倍数低（EV/EBITDA）、估值高和每股净值低的表现良好，低企业价值倍数和高企业价值/自由现金流在每个周期中领先，每股净值低的股票在80%的情况下优于大盘。按这些指标衡量，目前价格较低的行业是能源材料和医疗保健。小盘股表现优于大盘股美银认为，公司流通股本也能很好等衡量公司在加息中的表现。加息开始前几个月小盘股通常表现要好，加息开始后小盘股表现稍弱。但与其他加息周期不同，目前小盘股比大型股价格要便宜。小盘股的市盈率通常在加息前三个月上升5-6%，在上涨期间下降8%。但罗素2000指数的市盈率自去年11月以来已经下跌了12%，相对市盈率是2000年以来的最低水平。同时，小盘股比大盘股表现与10年期变化的相关性(正相关)要比与联邦基金利率变化的相关性(几乎没有相关性)大得多。美银报告还指出，更快的紧缩不会对小企业更不利，加息速度与相对规模表现之间没有相关性。此外，在资产负债表缩减期间，历史表明股票>债券，价值股>成长股，大盘股=小盘股。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZNmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"SPY":0.6,"UBmain":0.9,"BAC":0.73,"ESmain":0.85}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5869,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9097158476,"gmtCreate":1645399880633,"gmtModify":1676534023368,"author":{"id":"3585175863243941","authorId":"3585175863243941","name":"tay931888","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/f29802fbd50af9b6ba06ceae0ab19620","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585175863243941","authorIdStr":"3585175863243941"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9097158476","repostId":"1150820641","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4926,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":true}